F l o r i d a Su m m a r y
Flor i da’s H o u s i n g Mar k et Data recently released by Florida Realtors shows signs of a housing market that continues to find firmer footing amid growing signs of a nascent housing recovery in Florida. Median sales prices for singlefamily homes increased $12,000 in October yearover-year and stand at $145,000. For the beleaguered townhome/condominium market, the median sales price increased $18,000 year-over-year and came in at $107,900 in October. Figure 1, below, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. The trend for sales has been on an upward path from its low point in late 2007-08, and since that bottom sales have improved. While the overall trend is upward, there has been some wavering in the monthly sales data as the economic and demographic underpinnings of the housing market have yet to resume vigorous growth. As these foundations for a healthy housing market continue to fall into place, we can expect that the upward trend in sales will become more consistent. Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single family existing homes. While there has been no upward trend in housing prices, it is starting to appear that the bottom may have been reached for prices. Prices are beginning to look like they have already hit a wellestablished bottom and have lingered near that bottom for the better part of two years. In recent months, the
12-month moving average of median sales prices has started to curl upwards. It is not yet completely clear whether this upward curl is a permanent wave or if it will once again fall flat in the humid air of Florida’s housing market. Homeowners are still a long way away from the equity flushed days of 2004-2005, but a recent report indicated that less than half of Florida homeowners are currently underwater in their mortgages - the first time in years that figure has been less than 50%. That being said, the median homeowner is still over $100,000 poorer than they were in mid-2006. We are seeing more encouraging signs from the long-suffering housing sector in Florida. This includes evidence that new home building is starting to ramp up again. As the economy in Florida strengthens over the next several years, housing will benefit from the more robust growth. Population growth and employment growth provide solid foundations for the housing market. Prices may also continue to climb, but the pace is not likely to be robust enough to quickly replenish the lost wealth in the form of home equity that the collapse of the state’s housing market so quickly erased. The bottom line is that the housing market is finally showing signs of a recovery from deep and protracted collapse, but we still have a long, hard road ahead for the state before we can declare that the sector has fully recovered.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Florida
Florida
Single Family, Existing Homes
Single Family, Existing Homes 30000
300000
25000
250000
20000
200000
15000
150000
100000
10000
50000
5000
0
0
Realtor Sales Total
6
Moving Average RS
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2012
Median Sales Price Dollars
Moving Average MHP