F l o r i d a H i g h l i g ht s
H i g h l i g ht s o f the Dece m be r 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 1 6 F l o r i d a F o r eca s t • At our projected growth for payroll employment, Governor Scott will hit his target of 700,000 jobs created in just 5 years, which is two years ahead of his 7-year pledge. • Rising housing prices will in turn feed back into the economy via wealth effects and help the labor market continue to improve - a virtuous cycle that will finally supplant the cruel interaction of these two markets during the past five years. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average just 0.9% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 2.3% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.5% in 2016. It will be third quarter 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is still the lynchpin to predicting the future path for the unemployment rate in Florida. Labor force growth will average close to 1.4% during 2013-2016 and this will slow the pace of the decline in the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates continue to decline in large part due to labor force contraction and they will continue to decline through 2016. The pace of decline will moderate as labor force growth picks up and it will be 2014 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 8%. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market slack than official unemployment (U-3), came in at 16.4% for fourth quarter 2011 through third quarter 2012. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2013-2016 are Construction (6.1%); Professional and Business Services (5.6%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.0%); Education & Health Services (2.4%); and Information (1.7%). • Housing starts climbed higher in 2012 and will begin to accelerate in 2013. Total starts will be over 128,000 in 2014, just over 164,000 in 2015, and then hit 185,400 in 2016. This is the highest level since 2006, but still nearly 18,000 fewer starts than that year. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 1.6% in 2012, and then accelerate to 2.3% in 2013, 3.3% in 2014, 4.0% in 2015, and 3.6% in 2016. Average growth will be 3.3% during 2013-2016 compared to average growth of -0.6% over the preceding four years. • Real personal income growth for 2012 slowed to 1.5%. From 2013-2016, real personal income growth will average 3.8%, and will accelerate to 4.0% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will continue to pick up in 2013 and beyond. By 2016, the growth rate will be at 1.7% for the second year in a row, the fastest rate since 2006. As the economy strengthens, job creation and Baby Boomers’ retirements will both boost net migration. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during 2013-2016, after growing 4.8% in 2012.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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