Florida & Metro Forecast 2014-2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida
Published December 2014
ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)
ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida
F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2014 - 2017 Dece m be r 2 014 R e po r t
Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.
Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Jonathan Fagbohungbe, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Trevi Sellers, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-27 Florida News Summaries....................................... 28 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 30-34 Gainesville......................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................... 40-44 Lakeland............................................................ 45-49 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 50-54 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 55-59 Ocala................................................................. 60-64 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 65-69 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 70-74 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 75-79 Tallahassee........................................................ 80-84 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 85-89 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 90
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DECEMBER 2014 FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2014 -2017 • Kris Kringle has nothing on the Sunshine State. That 34th street miracle pales in comparison to the economic miracle in the 27th state.
• During 2014-2017 it is expected that Florida’s economy, as measured by real state GDP, will expand at an average annual rate of 2.8%, and that payroll job creation will average an annual pace of 2.2%. Both remain stronger than the pace expected for the national economy.
• As of October 2014, 39.9% of single-family home transactions in Florida were cash sales, down from 44.3% a year earlier. The share of cash purchases has declined year over year since June 2013. Investors may be reaching their fill of Florida residential real estate. Will traditional buyers pick up the slack? • Payroll job growth year over year should average 2.8% in 2014, 2.3% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016, and 1.6% in 2017. It will be the 4th quarter of 2015 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession highs.
• Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2014-2017. The faster pace of job creation has breathed new life into Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job is putting more Floridians back on the job hunt.
• The growing labor force and rising labor force participation rate (60.6% in October 2014) will make lowering the unemployment rate more challenging. The pace of decline will slow dramatically (and could reverse direction in any given month) as labor force growth picks up. As a result of this headwind, the unemployment rate should still hover around 5.8% by the end of 2017. • In Florida, Underemployment (U-6), a broader measure of labor market weakness than headline unemployment (U-3), remains at 13.4% through the 3rd quarter of 2014, down from 19.3% in 2010. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2014-2017 are Construction (9.2%), Professional and Business Services (3.5%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.3%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%), and Education & Health Services (1.9%).
• Housing starts continue to rise, but the pace of increase drops as interest rates rise. Total starts will be almost 83,400 in 2014, just over 111,500 in 2015, hit 133,700 in 2016, and level off at nearly 150,500 in 2017. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 2.6% in 2014; growth will be 2.7% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016 before rising to 3.0% in 2017. Average growth will be 2.8% during 2014-2017, 0.4 percentage points faster than average U.S. GDP growth. • Over 2014-2017 real personal income growth will accelerate and average 3.7%, with 3.5% growth in 2014 rising up to 4.2% growth in 2017.
• Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.5% during 2014-2017, with lower gasoline prices raising consumer confidence and disposable incomes. Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET The October 2014 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors continues to depict a housing market that is improving at a slower pace. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $7,804 in October 2014 year over year and now stands at $177,000, a year-overyear price appreciation of 4.6%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market slowed to 7.7% as the median sales price increased $10,000 year over year and registered $139,900 in October.
International buyers and individuals who are able to liquidate financial assets, whose values have soared in recent years, allowing them to make cash purchases are helping sustain these levels.
Inventories of condominiums rose from their level of 5.6 months’ supply back in October of 2013 and are now 5.9 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the condo market that is tipping in favor of buyers.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability Index has crept slightly higher since sliding at the start of 2014. It currently stands at 113.2, down from 116.1 in September 2014. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012, and to get a sense of how far housing finance has contracted, the Mortgage Bankers Association recently released historical estimates of its Credit Availability Index stretching back ten years. The availability of mortgage credit has been dramatically curtailed relative to pre-recession levels. In 2006 the index was just under 869!
Inventories of single-family homes in October are up slightly from a year ago and are now 5.4 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the single-family market slightly favoring sellers1.
Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year over year (-48.0%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus October 2013 (38.8%), and traditional sales were up 18.6% year over year in October 2014.
Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are rapidly contracting year over year (-55.6%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus October 2014 (24.0%), while traditional sales were up 11.6% in October 2014 compared to October 2013.
The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 39.9% in October 2014. For condos that figure was even higher as 65.3% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen during the course of 2014, which may suggest a waning role of investors in Florida’s housing market. The declining, though still high, levels of investor activity in residential real estate around the state continue to drive these high percentages of cash transactions. 1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Higher numbers indicate a buyers’ market, lower numbers a sellers’ market. 6
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Will traditional buyers of homes in Florida be able to fill the vacuum as investors become less active in Florida’s residential real estate market? This transition will ultimately determine the path that the housing market follows in 2014 and beyond. Since traditional buyers are finance dependent, mortgage availability will be a primary determinant of how smoothly this transition from investors to traditional individual buyers transpires. Mortgage credit availability data raises the concern that this transition may be rocky.
New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are in effect. Higher capital standards for banks and stringent underwriting standards continue to impact lending.
Current levels of the mortgage credit availability index are only 13.0% of the 2006 peak levels. While the recklessly easy mortgage credit environment of 2006 should not have come to pass, the current tightness in the mortgage market with the availability of mortgages at a mere fraction of prerecession levels is not consistent with a housing market recovery maintaining momentum. Indeed in 2014 we watched price appreciation slow from solid double-digit levels to the sub 5.0% rate that has been the average over the last 3 months. Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales depicted as the less volatile of the two lines by smoothing out the seasonality in the housing market monthly data. Sales continue on an
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Figure 1.
Florida
Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000 Realtor Sales Total
25,000
Moving Average
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: Florida Realtors
Figure 2.
Florida
Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000
$250,000
Median Sales Price Dollars Moving Average
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Source: Florida Realtors
upward trajectory after bottoming out in early 2008. The economic and demographic drivers of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida continues to outperform the labor market nationally, and the aging Baby Boomers bode well for continued population growth via the in-migration of
retirees to Florida. As the fundamentals of a healthy housing market in Florida continue to improve, we expect that the upward trend in sales will continue. This continued improvement in the housing market will be increasingly dependent on normalization of mortgage credit availability.
Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices bottomed out until 2011, but since then have been on an upward climb. As stated in an earlier Florida & Metro forecast, the double-digit pace of price increases was not sustainable, and in 2014 the pace has slowed. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $11,700, up 7.1% from a year ago. This recovery in the housing market is a critical component of Florida’s continued economic recovery, and if price appreciation is sustained, it will help feed economic growth over the next several years.
Homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they had seen at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $80,800 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed some homeowners to escape after being trapped in mortgages that were underwater for years. However, a high percentage of Floridians still remain underwater in their mortgages. RealtyTrac puts the percentage of mortgage holders in Florida that are severely underwater in their mortgage at 28%.
Florida’s housing market continues its recovery, but the upward progress is being met with an increasing headwind. There is still a lot of damage that has yet to be repaired and it will be years before the housing market could be considered fully recovered. If the availability of mortgage credit does not improve over the next couple years, and if the share of cash Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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transactions declines as we are predicting they will, the demand for housing will be curtailed and this mortgage credit crunch will sap any remaining strength from the housing market’s recovery in Florida. In 2014 we have seen the signs of this weakening manifest itself in the form of slower rates of price appreciation, and in absence of an easing of the mortgage credit crunch; we expect to see this pattern continue throughout the forecast horizon.
O UT LOO K FO R F LO RI DA 2 01 4- 2017 GROSS STATE P R O D U C T
A Miracle in the 27th State? Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida is still expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for the U.S. economy over the next four years. Florida’s recession started before and ended well after the national recession. While no official dating of the business cycle is done at the state level, I would suggest that Florida spent an additional 32 months in recession compared to the U.S. as a whole. Thirty-two months longer.
That is just two months shy of the total number of months the U.S. spent in recession over the past three recessions–combined.
This later end date for the recession in Florida indicates that Florida’s recession lasted 50 months in total, more than four full years. That is longer than the combined length of the past four recessions in the United States, which stretches back to 1981.
In 2012 Florida finally got back up off of the canvas after being knocked out cold by that Category 5 recession, and the economy grew at a modest rate of 2.2%. In 2013 the economy stayed at that pace of growth as rising consumer confidence, the housing market recovery, population growth, and the continuing progress in labor market helped set the stage for faster economic growth in the state. These improvements in the fundamentals of the state’s economy will accelerate growth in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 when Real GSP is expected to grow 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.8%, and 3.0% respectively.
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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
This average growth of 2.8% through 2017 may be small in comparison to the 6.7% growth rate the state experienced in 2005, but it is based more on improvements in the fundamental drivers of the state’s economy and a more sustainable fiscal situation in state and local government. It is also higher than the average of our forecasted growth for the U.S. economy. Housing prices have made a strong upward movement from the depths to which they plunged during the housing crisis. In the crisis, median home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now are at a current level of $177,000. This price appreciation is repairing damage to Floridians’ household balance sheets, but it will take many more years to recover all the wealth that was lost when the housing market collapsed and housing prices plummeted from their median price high of $257,800.
Rising house prices are lifting more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing some financial breathing room, though thousands of Floridians remain deeply underwater in their mortgages. Despite this progress and as noted above, RealtyTrac estimates that 28% of mortgaged homes in Florida are deeply underwater.
Nominal Gross State Product continues to rise toward the $1 trillion mark, surpassing $963 billion in 2017, an increase of $163 billion from 2013 and $242 billion from 2009. In 2018 Florida will break that $1 trillion mark.
If the national economic policy and regulatory environment were more of a catalyst instead of becoming ever more restrictive as we discussed in the December 2014 U.S. Forecast, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be even brighter.
As we have gained some historical perspective and examined the revised data on the recession and subsequent recovery in Florida, the economic turnaround is looking more like a miracle that would surely put a twinkle in Kris Kringle’s eye.
P ERS O NAL INCO M E , RE TA I L SALES , AND AUTO SALES Personal income growth in Florida lost momentum in 2013 as a number of factors conspired to bring about deceleration. One full year of sequester spending cuts took place, the payroll tax cut expired, dividend payments dropped off as many companies paid dividends at the end
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of 2012 to avoid rising dividend tax rates in 2013, and a federal government shutdown took place. This led to a deceleration of personal income growth in Florida from 3.3% in 2012 to 2.4% in 2013.
This lost momentum in personal income growth has returned in 2014, and is expected to be preserved through the end of 2017. In 2014 Florida will experience personal income growth of 4.9%. That growth will ease slightly in 2015 as personal income growth comes in at 4.5%. From there it will accelerate to 5.1% in 2016, and then to 5.8% in 2017. After six years with personal income growth lower than the national rate, these positions reversed in 2013 as personal income growth in Florida grew 2.9% while U.S. growth was just 2.0%. Florida is expected to continue to outpace the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.7 of a percentage point higher than the national average growth for 2014 through 2017. Personal income growth during 2014-2017 will average 5.1% in Florida. Personal income will reach in excess of $989 trillion in 2017, with personal income growing nearly $55 billion that final year of our forecast. In 2014 real disposable income growth will average 3.4%, up from the previous year’s 0.1%. Average growth during 2014-2017, however, will be a more robust 3.6% with growth peaking at 4.3% in 2017.
Financial markets have prospered since the low point of the financial crisis due in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy coupled with three subsequently larger rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since surged back to exceed 17,000, though volatility has increased in recent days. The bond market also continues a strong bull run. Both of these runs will likely be over as the Fed implements interest rate hikes commencing in late 2015.
As a result of this bull run, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $27.2 trillion higher than the 2009 nadir of the financial crisis levels, and $15.4 trillion higher than prerecession peaks. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth held by America’s households. That wealth is still over $2.3 trillion lower than 2005 highs, but home equity wealth has made sizable progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. U.S. households now hold $4.8 trillion more home equity wealth then they held at the low point of the housing market.
The housing market in Florida has not recovered as rapidly or as completely as financial markets have, but housing prices have been rising over the past couple years. The $2.3 trillion dollars in home equity still lost nationwide could take many years to recover with the housing recovery facing a stiffening headwind over the next several years. In Florida, this wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017. As noted twice earlier, 28% of Florida’s mortgage holders are still severely underwater in their mortgages.
Years of persistently high unemployment and even higher underemployment compounded the effects of lost housing wealth on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market in Florida continues to show an acceleration of job creation, there will be a boost in both consumer confidence and spending. Plummeting gasoline prices further buoy confidence and serve as a boost to retail sales outside of gasoline, with more money staying in consumers’ pockets that previously went into the tank.
Retail sales in Florida grew robustly in 2010 and 2011. Part of that growth was due to higher gasoline prices, but it also reflected an ongoing release of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers as well as spending by domestic and international tourists. As the labor market recovery builds momentum and as more home equity wealth is recovered, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the economy. The average year-over-year growth rate of retail sales will be over 4.5% during 20142017. When the national recession came to an end, replacement needs and pent-up demand drove light vehicle sales significantly higher. Consumers began to purchase vehicles again after the recession’s end. This replacement demand has been reflected in national sales data despite the historically weak recovery, and earlier in the recovery reflected in consumer’s light vehicle demand. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand during 2010-2013 when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate of near 12.0%. This burst followed three years during which registrations contracted at an average rate of near 20.0%. The venting of pent-up demand being over means more modest growth in vehicle registration in Florida during 2014-2017 despite increased incentives and plentiful financing even to sub-prime borrowers. Over this period, Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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vehicle registration in Florida is expected to average around 5.1%, with 2014 doing most of the heavy lifting in that average. Beyond 2014, growth will average a more modest 3.5% the following three years. In 2017, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.34 million, representing an increase of over 634,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom. However, this much-improved level is still below the 2005 peak level of 1.45 million registrations during the height of the economic boom.
EMPLOY ME N T Florida’s labor market recovery continues to outpace the recovery in the national job market. In 2013, payroll job growth was 2.5%. This is much stronger when compared to the national rate of job creation, which was 1.7% for the same year. In 2014, the labor market in Florida accelerated with job growth of 2.8%. Payroll job growth will ease to 2.3% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016, before easing to 1.6% in 2017. Florida will outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.8% over 2014-2017. The Construction sector has broken free its terrible legacy. Devastated by the housing market’s collapse, it suffered job losses five straight years at an average annual rate of -12.9%. In 2009 alone, the sector had yearover-year job loss at a rate of -23.1%. Job growth finally returned in 2012 and continued to build momentum, exceeding 10% in 2014. Construction job growth is expected to surge to 10.4% in 2014 before settling at 8.7% in 2015, 8.8% in 2016, and easing higher to 8.9% in 2017. Average annual job growth during 2014-2017 will be 9.2%. Construction will be the fastest growing sector in the state’s economy through 2017. This high-level employment growth may at first glance overstate the strength of the recovery in this sector since it is being calculated from a considerably lower base of employment.
The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s second fastest growing sector on average through 2017. Job growth in this sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 3.5% during 2014-2017. Job growth during the first four years of the sector’s recovery averaged 3.0%, but over the next four years it will see more robust growth. Job growth will hit 3.9% in 2014 before easing to 3.7% in 2015 and 2016. This sector, which includes 10
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
almost exclusively white collar businesses from law firms to notaries to advertising and PR firms, recovered jobs lost during the recession quickly and has already reached pre-recession peak levels of employment.
The Information sector in Florida experienced yearover-year job growth in 2013 for the first time since 2005. The industry is still roiled by changes as the gathering and delivery of information continues its rapid evolution. The traditional print and radio industry within the sector will be stagnant as the news industry continues to evolve under the unrelenting pressure from smaller digital channels of information dissemination. Sources of growth within this sector, such as software development, data processing and hosting, and wireless telecommunications, will help offset the loss of jobs in legacy media. Mild annual job growth of 0.2% returned to the Information sector in 2013. After 1.3% growth in 2014 and 2015, growth will then rise to 1.7% in 2016. Average growth of 1.2% is expected during 2014-2017. The Education and Health Services sector remained immune to the recession that wreaked havoc on most sectors of Florida’s economy. The Health Services sector actually continued to add jobs throughout the recession and continues to do so. This is the only sector of Florida’s economy that performed this recession-defying feat, and it is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2017. During 2014-2017 employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.9%.
Persistent uncertainty surrounding the Affordable Care Act’s impact on healthcare in the face of impending implementation of the law’s mandates and the growing concern about the fiscal feasibility of the law itself casts a pall over this sector. Healthcare providers continue to feel their way along, slowly navigating the multitude of uncertainties this law creates. Regardless of the law’s ultimate fate in front of the Supreme Court, there will be expanded insurance coverage as a result of the passage of the law, and this expansion coupled with the aging of our already olderthan-average population guarantees that the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector.
Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 1.6% in 2012, but in 2013 growth eased as domestic and global economic environments weakened.
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The weakening of economic expansions along with a series of minor crises in emerging economies, growing concern over a slowdown in China, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and persistent struggles in Europe will drive down job growth in the manufacturing sector beyond 2014. After stumbling slightly in 2013, we are expecting to see job growth of 2.0% in manufacturing for the full year in 2014, followed by a year of milder job growth in 2015 when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.0%. Manufacturing is expected to revisit the job losses that have come to characterize the sector. In 2016 job growth is expected to be -0.9%, and the sector shrinks further in 2017 with employment growth at -0.6%.
get smaller. It is unlikely that there will be layoffs, but as federal employees retire or otherwise leave positions in the years ahead many of these posts will remain unfilled. It will likely be 2020 before the decennial census drives the first expansion in Federal Government employment in Florida since 2010. Employment in the sector will contract at an average rate of 0.6% during 2014-2017.
UNEM P LOYM ENT
The unemployment rate in Florida continues to fall, standing at 6.0% as of October 2014. Unemployment has substantially declined from its peak, and after spending many years above the national rate of unemployment, The State & Local Government sector is seeing Florida’s unemployment rate is now 0.2 percentage points improved revenue streams, and budgets are recovering above that of the nation as a whole. These declines in the after being emaciated by the recession and housing unemployment rate earlier in the recovery in Florida and crisis. The budgetary crisis impacted governments at all the nation were in part driven by a shrinking labor force levels in Florida. Consequently, job losses in this sector participation rate. Florida’s labor force participation in persisted for five years extending through 2013. In 2014, October stood at 60.6%, up from 59.9% a year earlier. The job losses in the State and Local Government sector national labor force participation rate, however, stood at ended but growth was still non-existent. From this point, 62.8% in November 2014, the lowest since March 1978 growth will remain positive and accelerate year over year, and down 3.4 percentage points from the start of the averaging 0.7% during 2015-2017. As Florida’s population recession. and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and Understanding these different trends in the labor force local government services will grow and employment participation rate in Florida relative to the nation as a growth will be a necessary part of the solution to meet whole is critical to understanding comparative movements the demands of our growing economy. State and local in the unemployment rate going forward. If Florida government will remain cautious in hiring. The housing continues to see a rising labor force participation rate bubble filled state and local government coffers to the while the national rate languishes, it is likely we will see point of overflow. The subsequent budget slashing that the unemployment rate in Florida continue to remain was necessitated as revenues plummeted forced local above that of the nation as a whole. As counterintuitive government to learn how to do more with less. This as it may seem, this will be evidence that Florida’s labor hard-learned lesson in austerity will keep the pace of job market is healing faster than the national labor market. growth suppressed through the next several years while The unemployment rate in Florida, 6.0% in October still being able to meet the growing demand for services. 2014, represents a 5.4 percentage point decline from the The outlook for Federal Government employment peak unemployment rate in 2010. growth in Florida on the other hand, continues to be negative through the end of our 2017 forecast horizon. Any solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will require more revenue, but ultimately cuts in federal spending will be necessitated as well. As the Fed eventually embarks on a cycle of interest rate hikes in late 2015, the burden of servicing a national debt that is in excess of $18 trillion will consume a larger slice of federal tax revenue pie. This increasing share will have to come from somewhere, and the portion of federal tax revenue that goes toward discretionary spending will, by necessity,
We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the forecast horizon as well as continued strong payroll job growth. This faster economic growth, however, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow more rapidly during 2014-2017 as job seekers become encouraged by job growth in the state and reenter the labor force. This will have a net result of seeing modest declines in Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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unemployment rates and the occasional increase in the unemployment rate in Florida on a month-to-month basis.
The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 2.0% during 2014-2017. That compares to an average growth rate of just 0.9% during the four years prior. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to hover around the 5.8% level during 2015- 2017. This will represent a decline in the average unemployment rate of just 0.2% during 2014-2017. Contrast that modest dip to the previous four years decline of 4.1 percentage points while the labor market did not face the stiff headwinds of a rapidly growing labor force. Nationally and in Florida, the levels of underemployment—those who are working part-time but not by their choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force (those who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months)—are still elevated. When adding these workers to the headline unemployment figure we get the broadest measure of unemployment known as U-6. Looking at U-6 we see a labor market still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 13.4% for the four quarters ending in Q3 2014 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national rate of U-6 stands at 12.5 over that same period.
While U-6 is down from its 2012 reading of 16.0%, the current rate still reflects more depth of the damage to the labor market in Florida than might be reflected in the current headline unemployment rate of 6.0%. As the employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act are finally enforced in the next few years, the potential for increasing levels of underemployment in response to the full/part-time distinction in the law will require continued scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level to fully gauge the impact of the healthcare law on the labor market.
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F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)
696.7 -5.3 -2.8
725.2 4.1 2.8
767.4 5.8 6.2
793.0 3.3 5.2
811.4 2.4 2.0
Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)
696.7 -5.2
713.3 2.4
736.9 3.3
747.6 1.5
U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $)
-2.7 643.2 -3.4 -0.4 721.7
1.2 658.8 2.5 1.0 728.6
3.7 673.1 2.2 2.5 736.4
(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)
-4.1 721.7 -6.1
1.0 721.0 -0.1
1.1 718.2 -0.4
2014
2015
2016
2017
850.9 4.9 4.2
888.9 4.5 4.1
934.6 5.1 4.4
989.2 5.8 4.9
755.9 1.1
782.0 3.5
808.3 3.4
838.7 3.8
873.7 4.2
3.3 679.3 0.9 3.0 769.0
0.8 680.1 0.1 -0.2 800.5
2.8 703.2 3.4 2.7 837.0
3.0 725.4 3.2 2.5 877.2
3.1 751.8 3.6 3.0 918.1
3.3 784.1 4.3 3.4 963.3
4.4 734.3 2.2
4.1 750.5 2.2
4.6 770.3 2.6
4.8 791.5 2.7
4.7 813.7 2.8
4.9 837.7 3.0
Personal Income and GSP
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment
-5.7
-0.1
2.2
2.9
2.4
3.0
2.6
2.1
1.9
Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)
-1.4 10.4
0.9 11.3
1.1 10.3
1.1 8.8
0.7 7.2
1.9 6.2
2.2 5.8
2.1 5.7
1.9 5.8
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.8
5.8
5.8
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida
-4.3 -6.3
-0.7 -0.8
1.2 1.1
1.7 2.0
1.7 2.5
1.8 2.8
1.7 2.3
1.2 1.9
1.0 1.6
Mining
-11.5
-0.5
4.0
-0.3
0.3
3.4
0.8
-2.0
-0.2
Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods
-23.1 -12.7 -10.0 -14.0
-11.2 -4.5 -3.6 -4.9
-4.4 1.1 0.8 1.3
1.9 1.6 1.1 1.8
7.5 1.4 -0.5 2.4
10.4 2.0 -0.6 3.3
8.7 1.0 -0.1 1.6
8.8 -0.2 -0.9 0.1
8.9 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
-6.6
-2.0
3.7
2.2
2.7
3.6
2.6
3.7
3.4
Wholesale Trade
-7.9
-2.8
-0.3
1.8
1.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.5
Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services
-6.6 -7.3 -8.2 1.2
0.2 -1.9 1.2 1.9
2.3 1.8 3.0 1.9
2.4 2.7 3.7 1.7
2.8 2.7 4.0 1.7
3.1 2.0 3.9 2.0
1.8 1.0 3.7 2.4
-0.1 0.5 3.7 2.1
-0.5 0.2 2.8 1.4
Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
-4.5 -8.5 2.3 -1.5
0.5 -4.6 7.2 -1.2
2.8 -1.0 -5.4 -1.1
4.2 -1.6 -0.8 -1.4
3.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.2
3.6 1.3 -0.4 0.0
2.3 1.3 -0.1 0.2
1.1 1.7 -1.0 0.7
1.1 0.7 -1.0 1.2
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
(%Ch Year ago)
18,682.3 18,879.7 19,113.0 19,349.2 19,581.9 19,817.7 20,085.0 20,379.1 20,694.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 106.8 168.1 198.9 199.6 200.7 208.5 243.0 258.2 269.4 42.5 70.3 22.6 0.4 0.6 3.9 16.8 6.3 4.4
33.7 26.8
38.1 31.8
41.6 32.0
59.7 42.8
Housing 81.2 55.0
83.4 57.8
111.6 74.3
133.7 87.2
150.5 103.2
6.9
6.3
9.6
16.9
26.1
25.6
37.3
46.5
47.3
-0.2
1.2
3.1
2.0
1.1
1.5
2.0
Consumer Prices 1.9 1.5
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
13
F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
Personal Income (Bil. $)
865.8
876.0
884.0
892.6
902.9
Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)
5.4 4.8 793.2 4.0
5.1 4.7 801.1 4.0
4.3 4.0 805.4 3.4
4.2 3.9 809.9 3.1
4.3 3.9 816.9 3.0
U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
Personal Income and GSP 916.3 927.6 940.3 4.6 4.1 826.7 3.2
4.9 4.3 834.2 3.6
5.3 4.5 842.3 4.0
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
954.1
969.3
982.7
995.7
1008.9
5.7 4.8 851.6 4.3
5.8 4.9 861.9 4.3
5.9 5.0 869.5 4.2
5.9 5.0 877.6 4.2
5.7 4.9 885.8 4.0
3.5
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
714.4 4.2 3.4 853.3
719.9 4.1 3.2 862.8
722.7 3.4 2.5 872.2
726.6 2.6 2.3 882.5
732.4 2.5 2.1 891.3
740.5 2.9 2.4 900.9
747.4 3.4 2.8 912.0
755.3 3.9 3.2 923.8
764.1 4.3 3.5 935.7
772.1 4.3 3.4 946.5
779.7 4.3 3.4 957.8
788.1 4.3 3.4 968.6
796.5 4.2 3.4 980.2
4.5
5.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
778.9
783.9
788.6
794.3
799.1
804.0
810.2
816.8
823.7
829.1
834.8
840.4
846.5
(%Ch Year ago)
2.5
3.4
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
Employment
3.2
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
2.6 6.0 5.8
2.3 5.9 5.8
1.8 5.8 5.7
2.4 5.7 5.7
2.4 5.7 5.8
2.2 5.7 5.8
2.1 5.8 5.8
2.0 5.8 5.8
2.0 5.7 5.8
2.0 5.7 5.8
1.9 5.8 5.8
1.9 5.8 5.8
1.8 5.8 5.8
GSP (Bil. 2005$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)
NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing
1.9 2.5 5.8 8.7
2.0 2.5 4.4 8.5
1.8 2.2 2.0 9.0
1.7 2.3 -1.2 8.5
1.4 2.2 -2.0 8.8
1.3 2.0 -2.4 8.7
1.2 1.9 -2.3 8.7
1.1 1.8 -1.8 8.6
1.2 1.9 -1.5 9.3
1.1 1.8 -0.9 9.3
1.1 1.7 -0.3 9.2
0.9 1.6 0.1 9.0
0.8 1.4 0.4 8.2
1.5
0.7
1.2
1.3
0.7
0.4
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
-0.7
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3 2.3 3.5 2.7
-0.2 1.2 2.6 1.5
0.5 1.6 2.6 1.4
-0.1 2.0 2.5 2.5
-0.7 1.4 2.8 2.6
-0.8 1.0 3.5 2.6
-0.9 0.2 3.8 2.6
-0.9 -0.2 3.7 2.4
-1.0 -0.6 3.8 2.5
-0.9 -0.6 3.8 2.6
-0.6 -0.3 3.6 2.4
-0.5 -0.3 3.4 2.5
-0.3 -0.4 3.1 2.4
Retail Trade
2.3
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.0
0.5
Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality
1.8 3.6 2.0 3.0
1.5 3.3 2.5 3.0
1.0 3.7 2.4 1.8
0.9 3.9 2.4 2.4
0.7 4.0 2.2 2.2
0.4 3.9 2.1 1.8
0.0 0.4 3.6 1.9 1.2
-0.4 0.4 3.7 1.9 0.8
-0.4 0.7 3.8 2.4 0.5
-0.6 0.6 3.7 2.0 0.3
-0.5 0.5 3.3 1.5 0.8
-0.5 0.1 2.5 1.2 1.3
-0.4 -0.5 1.7 0.8 1.7
2.3 0.1 -0.1
3.5 0.6 0.0
1.1 -0.1 0.0
1.0 -0.2 0.4
-0.5 -0.7 0.5
-1.9 -0.8 0.5
1.8 -1.0 0.7
3.6 -1.0 0.8
3.1 -1.0 0.8
3.1 -1.0 1.0
0.7 -0.9 1.1
-0.8 -1.1 1.3
-0.3 -1.2 1.5
Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade
Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)
19,911.1 19,979.4 20,048.8 20,119.7 20,191.9 20,265.5 20,340.3 20,416.5 20,494.2 20,573.6 20,653.6 20,734.0 20,814.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 57.3 59.3 60.2 61.3 62.2 63.2 63.9 65.0 66.0 67.2 67.3 67.4 67.6 13.8 17.8 19.4 21.5 8.5 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 5.3 3.6 2.3 Housing
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
90.9 62.6 28.3
99.5 68.5 31.0
108.9 72.7 36.2
116.3 77.5 38.8
121.6 78.6 43.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
1.0
1.3
127.3 80.8 46.5
129.7 83.3 46.5
134.1 88.2 45.9
143.9 96.5 47.3
147.9 100.6 47.3
149.0 102.8 46.2
152.2 104.4 47.7
152.8 104.8 48.0
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate
14
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
1.5
1.5
1.5
F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7,856.9
7,906.7
7,952.1
7,995.1
8,029.3
8,065.3
8,101.1
8,139.3
8,181.0
8,210.4
8,241.6
8,269.3
8,295.8
Manufacturing
330.1
330.7
331.6
332.1
332.6
332.2
331.0
330.6
330.1
329.9
329.7
329.4
328.8
Durable Goods
223.4
224.2
225.2
226.0
226.7
226.4
225.6
225.5
225.2
225.1
225.0
224.8
224.3
Wood Products
10.8
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.3
11.2
Computer & Electronics
40.3
40.2
39.9
39.5
39.2
38.9
38.6
38.4
38.3
38.1
38.0
37.9
37.9
Transportation Equipment
39.0
39.2
39.3
39.2
39.1
38.8
38.5
38.2
38.0
37.9
37.7
37.4
37.2
106.7
106.6
106.4
106.1
105.9
105.7
105.4
105.1
104.8
104.8
104.7
104.6
104.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.4
28.4
28.3
28.2
28.3
28.3
28.4
28.4
7,526.8
7,576.0
7,620.5
7,663.0
7,696.7
7,733.2
7,770.1
7,808.7
7,851.0
7,880.5
7,911.9
7,939.8
7,967.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
Construction
418.3
426.9
436.3
446.6
455.1
464.1
474.4
485.1
497.4
507.5
518.2
528.6
538.0
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
259.2
259.6
261.3
263.7
266.3
268.6
271.2
273.6
276.3
278.8
280.9
282.8
284.8
Wholesale Trade
329.5
331.3
333.4
336.1
338.1
339.8
342.1
344.1
346.7
348.5
350.4
352.5
354.8
1,047.5
1,051.7
1,054.4
1,057.6
1,057.6
1,056.6
1,054.7
1,053.8
1,053.2
1,050.3
1,049.8
1,049.1
1,048.6
137.1
139.2
137.3
136.6
136.3
136.5
139.8
141.6
140.6
140.8
140.8
140.4
140.2
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services
1,174.5
1,185.3
1,198.0
1,210.1
1,221.9
1,231.5
1,241.2
1,254.3
1,268.0
1,276.6
1,281.9
1,285.2
1,289.7
Admin. & Support
592.1
598.4
606.8
614.2
621.8
629.6
637.9
649.9
661.4
670.5
675.7
679.6
684.6
Prof. Sci & Tech
490.1
494.0
497.9
502.3
506.3
508.0
509.1
510.0
512.0
511.3
511.3
510.5
509.8
92.4
93.0
93.3
93.6
93.8
94.0
94.2
94.3
94.6
94.8
94.9
95.1
95.3
Financial Activities
525.4
528.1
528.4
529.0
528.8
530.1
530.7
531.2
532.7
533.5
533.3
532.0
530.0
Real Estate & Rent
171.6
172.3
173.0
173.7
174.3
175.2
175.9
176.8
177.9
178.9
179.7
180.3
180.8
Fin. & Insurance
353.8
355.8
355.4
355.3
354.5
354.9
354.7
354.4
354.8
354.6
353.6
351.7
349.2
1,158.0
1,166.0
1,177.6
1,182.1
1,183.8
1,190.6
1,199.7
1,204.7
1,211.7
1,213.9
1,217.5
1,219.4
1,221.1
148.7
149.3
149.1
149.1
149.0
149.0
148.8
148.5
148.3
147.8
147.3
146.8
146.0
Health Services
1,009.3
1,016.7
1,028.5
1,033.0
1,034.8
1,041.7
1,050.9
1,056.3
1,063.4
1,066.0
1,070.2
1,072.7
1,075.1
Leisure & Hospitality
1,082.3
1,090.8
1,095.4
1,100.9
1,106.1
1,110.3
1,108.9
1,109.9
1,111.2
1,113.7
1,118.3
1,124.5
1,130.6
312.9
314.2
315.2
316.2
317.1
318.2
319.3
320.3
321.4
322.4
323.2
324.0
324.8
1,076.2
1,076.8
1,077.4
1,078.1
1,079.7
1,080.9
1,082.3
1,084.3
1,086.1
1,089.0
1,092.0
1,095.4
1,098.7
Federal Gov't.
132.0
131.8
131.7
131.4
131.1
130.8
130.3
130.0
129.7
129.5
129.2
128.7
128.2
State & Local Gov't
944.1
945.0
945.7
946.8
948.6
950.1
952.0
954.3
956.4
959.6
962.8
966.7
970.5
Mgmt. of Co.
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
Other Services Government
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
15
F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7,230.6
7,172.3
7,252.3
7,396.7
7,580.1
7,791.4
7,970.8
8,121.7
8254.3
Manufacturing
324.0
309.1
312.5
317.4
322.0
328.5
331.8
330.9
329.5
Durable Goods
214.5
203.6
206.2
209.9
215.0
222.1
225.5
225.7
224.8
9.1
8.4
8.6
8.8
10.4
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.3
Computer & Electronics
44.7
43.0
43.0
42.5
40.9
40.1
39.7
38.6
37.9
Transportation Equipment
34.9
33.8
34.2
35.4
36.6
38.4
39.2
38.4
37.6
109.5
105.5
106.3
107.5
107.0
106.4
106.2
105.3
104.7
27.9
27.5
28.7
29.2
29.2
28.4
28.5
28.3
28.3
6,906.6
6,863.3
6,939.7
7,079.3
7,258.2
7,463.0
7,639.0
7,790.7
7,924.8
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.8
Construction
396.7
351.1
335.4
341.9
367.7
405.9
441.2
480.2
523.1
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
231.8
227.1
235.4
240.6
247.2
256.0
262.7
272.5
281.8
Wholesale Trade
322.4
313.2
312.2
317.9
321.1
328.2
334.7
343.2
351.6
Retail Trade
932.3
934.0
955.3
978.3
1,005.4
1,036.9
1,055.3
1,054.6
1,049.4
Information
143.8
137.1
135.7
133.6
133.9
135.7
137.4
139.6
140.5
Prof. & Bus. Services
993.2
1,005.4
1,035.8
1,074.3
1,117.4
1,160.4
1,203.8
1,248.8
1,283.4
Admin. & Support
481.8
493.8
516.6
537.9
558.4
581.7
610.3
644.7
677.6
Prof. Sci & Tech
431.5
432.5
437.9
451.0
468.1
486.3
500.1
509.8
510.7
80.0
79.1
81.4
85.4
90.9
92.4
93.4
94.3
95.0
Financial Activities
487.4
477.9
486.4
499.4
512.8
523.3
528.6
531.2
532.2
Real Estate & Rent
154.9
150.4
153.0
160.0
165.7
171.2
173.3
176.5
179.9
Fin. & Insurance
332.4
327.5
333.4
339.4
347.1
352.1
355.3
354.7
352.3
1,050.8
1,070.7
1,091.2
1,109.5
1,127.9
1,150.1
1,177.4
1,201.7
1,218.0
Education Services
127.6
134.6
136.8
139.6
142.7
147.5
149.1
148.6
147.0
Health Services
923.2
936.1
954.5
969.9
985.2
1,002.6
1,028.3
1,053.1
1,071.0
Leisure & Hospitality
926.9
931.2
957.2
997.5
1,036.4
1,073.2
1,098.3
1,110.1
1,121.8
Other Services
301.1
297.3
295.7
301.6
306.4
311.4
315.7
319.8
323.6
1,114.8
1,112.8
1,093.5
1,079.1
1,076.4
1,076.1
1,078.0
1,083.4
1,093.8
Federal Gov't.
132.7
142.2
134.0
132.8
132.2
131.6
131.5
130.2
128.9
State & Local Gov't
982.2
970.6
959.6
946.3
944.3
944.5
946.5
953.2
964.9
Wood Products
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Mgmt. of Co.
Edu. & Health Service
Government
16
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
865.8
876.0
884.0
892.6
902.9
916.3
927.6
940.3
954.1
969.3
982.7
995.7
1008.9
Wages & Salaries
385.3
390.8
395.7
400.7
405.7
411.0
416.3
421.9
427.8
433.6
439.3
445.1
451.0
Other Labor Income
86.2
86.8
87.4
88.2
89.1
90.2
91.0
92.0
93.1
94.6
95.5
96.5
97.5
Nonfarm
51.7
52.5
53.4
54.0
54.5
55.3
56.2
56.7
57.3
57.9
58.7
58.9
59.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
Property Income
225.7
226.2
227.2
228.6
231.6
235.0
238.5
243.4
248.8
253.8
258.9
263.7
268.5
Transfer Payments
Farm
174.7
178.5
179.9
181.3
182.8
187.1
188.2
189.7
191.5
195.6
197.4
199.2
201.1
Social Insurance
61.2
62.4
63.1
63.8
64.6
66.0
66.6
67.4
68.3
70.1
71.0
71.8
72.6
Personal Income
793.2
801.1
805.4
809.9
816.9
826.7
834.2
842.3
851.6
861.9
869.5
877.6
885.8
Wages & Salaries
Billions 2005 $
353.0
357.4
360.6
363.6
367.0
370.8
374.4
377.9
381.8
385.5
388.7
392.3
396.0
Other Labor Income
79.0
79.4
79.6
80.0
80.7
81.4
81.9
82.5
83.1
84.1
84.5
85.1
85.6
Nonfarm
47.4
48.0
48.7
49.0
49.3
49.9
50.6
50.8
51.2
51.5
51.9
51.9
52.1
Farm
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Property Income
206.7
206.9
207.0
207.5
209.6
212.0
214.5
218.1
222.1
225.7
229.1
232.5
235.7
Transfer Payments
160.0
163.3
163.9
164.5
165.4
168.8
169.3
169.9
170.9
173.9
174.7
175.6
176.5
56.1
57.0
57.5
57.9
58.4
59.5
59.9
60.4
61.0
62.3
62.8
63.3
63.8
Social Insurance
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
1228.73 1224.71 1235.69 1251.72 1266.57 1281.17 1294.49 1301.58 1313.34 1325.74 1338.34 1351.82 1351.80
Retail Sales (Billions $)
297.4
299.8
303.0
306.7
309.6
312.7
316.2
320.5
324.1
327.5
331.9
335.4
338.9
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
272.5
274.1
276.0
278.3
280.1
282.1
284.4
287.1
289.3
291.2
293.7
295.6
297.5
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
17
F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
696.7
725.2
767.4
793.0
811.4
850.9
888.9
934.6
989.2
Wages & Salaries
320.8
322.9
332.4
346.5
358.2
378.6
398.2
419.2
442.3
Other Labor Income
73.3
76.5
75.2
78.0
81.5
85.1
87.9
91.6
96.0
Nonfarm
36.8
38.3
40.4
45.3
48.0
50.6
53.6
56.4
58.7
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
Property Income
175.1
186.8
210.8
213.3
216.1
222.8
228.4
241.4
261.2
Transfer Payments
138.1
148.6
152.2
155.5
160.6
170.5
180.6
189.1
198.3
50.0
50.7
46.8
48.8
56.5
60.1
63.5
67.1
71.4
Farm
Social Insurance
Billions 2005 $ Personal Income
696.7
713.3
736.9
747.6
755.9
782.0
808.3
838.7
873.7
Wages & Salaries
320.8
317.6
319.2
326.7
333.7
348.0
362.1
376.2
390.6
Other Labor Income
73.3
75.3
72.2
73.5
75.9
78.2
79.9
82.2
84.8
Nonfarm
36.8
37.6
38.8
42.7
44.8
46.5
48.8
50.6
51.8
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
Property Income
175.2
183.7
202.4
201.0
201.4
204.8
207.7
216.7
230.7
Transfer Payments
138.0
146.1
146.1
146.6
149.6
156.7
164.3
169.7
175.2
50.0
49.9
44.9
46.0
52.7
55.2
57.7
60.2
63.0
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
707.0
810.5
879.8
1006.9
1101.0
1213.4
1244.7
1297.6
1341.9
Retail Sales (Billions $)
227.2
243.1
260.4
268.0
280.0
292.8
304.8
318.4
333.4
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
227.2
239.2
250.0
252.7
260.9
269.1
277.1
285.7
294.5
Farm
Social Insurance
18
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(%)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Construction Employment 700.0
(Thousands)
600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
19
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL CPI
Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0
20
(Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0
(Thousands)
150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Financial Activities Employment 560.0
(Thousands)
540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
21
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
(% change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Gross State Product
Florida Housing Starts (thousands)
300.0 250.0
8%
200.0
7%
150.0
6%
100.0
5%
50.0
4%
0.0
22
9%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
3%
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Information Employment (Thousands)
190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1150.0
(Thousands)
1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
23
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)
500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
24
(% change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Employment 8400.0 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0
(Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Wage & Salary Employment
Florida Personal Income 12%
(% change year ago)
9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
25
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida Population (Thousands)
21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)
1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)
10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
26
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
F lo r i d a C ha r ts
Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)
1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1700.0
(Thousands)
1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(percent)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
27
F lo r i d a N e w s S umma r ies 2014-15 forecast Citrus Season Shapes Up Favorably
• Orange growers will see the farm price for oranges rise during this season, however orange juice consumers may see prices fall and level out, according to Marisa Zansler, chief economist at the Florida Department of Citrus, who was present at a meeting with the Florida Citrus Commission.
• Zansler states that there may be an issue in the fact that the increases in revenue will be neutralized with higher costs. This may be made more apparent due to the high cost of combating this bacterial disease called Citrus Greening. • For the current outlook of this season, a slowdown of the decline in U.S. retail orange juice sales may become more probable but still total sales will drop for the 13th time in the past 14 seasons.
• Polk County leads the state’s citrus producing counties with 81,810 grove acres and 10 million trees from the start of this current season, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Orange growers should also see an increase of 10.5 percent in the farm price for their oranges harvested from October to March. Source: The Ledger, October 23, 2014 Record number of tourists keep flocking to Florida
• It was announced by Gov. Rick Scott that nearly 24 million tourists visited the state of Florida during the third quarter of 2014. That is a 3.5 percent increase over the same time period a year ago. • Visit Florida, reported that the record number of 23.7 million visitors includes 2.9 million foreigners and more than 500,000 Canadians.
• Gov. Rick Scott believes that an increase in spending by around $74 million on Visit Florida advertising will aid in boosting the state’s tourism industry. • Almost 95 million people traveled to Florida for visits last year. Visit Florida estimated that nearly 74 million have passed the state through the end of September. Source: Naples Daily News, November 20, 2014 Unemployment in Florida dips to lowest rate since June 2008
• Data from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity shows that Florida’s unemployment rate reached around 6 percent for the first time since June 2008. • Workforce data shows, 34,000 workers joined the workforce in Florida, in the last month.
• In regards to the Orlando metro area, unemployment dipped to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent a year ago.
• The Orlando metro area’s four counties saw improvements of 0.7 percent to 0.9 percent year-over-year. Orange County’s unemployment rate improved to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent, Osceola’s to 6.1 percent from 7 percent, Lake’s to 6 percent from 6.8 percent and Seminole’s to 5.0 percent from 5.7 percent. Each county has only made a slight progression—less than half a percentage point from the September’s figures. Source: Orlando sentinel, November 21, 2014 28
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Visit Florida offers $2.5M in grants for medical tourism
• The marketing organization for the state of Florida, Visit Florida, publicized the creation of a $2.5 million grant program to encourage medical tourism.
• Medical tourism is the trend by which individuals travel to a state for treatment, surgeries, and recovery. The program will be financed by the state legislature. In addition, some of the money will be used to promote Florida as a destination for medical conferences and training. • Visit Florida President and CEO, Will Seccombe, hopes that the establishment of these grants is a tremendous first step in the process of highlighting Florida as a destination for top class doctors and facilities. Source: Sun Sentinel, November 11, 2014 Florida PBS unveils free digital learning platform
• Florida PBS was given $1 million out of the education budget, for licensure and customization of digital learning content to meet Florida requirements.
• The features of platform include 87,000 learning objects that have been compiled and put together from PBS’s nonprofit association of public radio and television stations into relevant content that is searchable by grade level and topic. Florida PBS will look to increase that number from 87,000 to 100,000 this year. • Florida PBS Learning Media will make sure that it is a safe and user-friendly place for students to enhance their learning online. For the parents who are worried about their students getting homework help in hazardous corners of the Internet, Florida PBS makes exceptional content available on this safe platform. Source: Panama City News Herald, December 4, 2014 Florida’s sale of lux homes takes a twist in 2014
• The sale of homes priced at $1 million or more has been on the increase, however the increase in volume may be a cautionary sign that growth of sales are declining. • A report from the Seattle-based Redfin, a real estate search and brokerage service, shows Florida’s third quarter sales of high-end homes measured 1,004, up 6 percent from 2013 and 115 percent from the same time in 2011. • However this is a fall in growth from 2013, which saw a sharp 34 percent hike in million-dollar homes compared to to the previous year. Redfin’s study looked at 33 Florida regions, including some in Palm Beach County such as Palm Beach and Boca Raton.
• As a result, Redfin found that million-dollar-plus home sales were up a solid 9 percent in the third quarter compared to 2013, definitely outperforming the overall market, which saw a 1.2 percent decrease during the same time period. Source: Palm Beach Post, December 5, 2014
D e c e m b e r 2 0 14
METROS
FLORIDA FORECAST
Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $34,000. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at $41,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.4 percent. Population growth will average 1.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 13,020.19 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 600,756 as of July 1, 2013 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 258,685 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 14,786 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.7 percent each year. Unemployment will average 6.2 percent.
• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256
The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 8.1 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 4.8 percent annually. The Other Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. The Information sector and Federal Government sector are the only sectors expected to experience declines, both at -0.5 percent.
• Daytona State College – 1,568
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916
Daytona airport eyes expansion; airline recruiting ongoing
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Halifax Health – 4,709
• County of Volusia – 3,341
• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Frontier Communications – 800
• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700
Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida
• Daytona Beach International Airport has only had three of six boarding gates in use (by Delta and US Airways) since mid-2008 when two airlines pulled out during the Great Recession.
• Airport officials have continuously worked to recruit airlines and have proceeded with $65 million in capital improvement projects for the airport since 2006. Officials believe three hotels planned for the Daytona Beach area and larger events at the Ocean Center will drive new passenger growth. • There is an additional $37 million in anticipated projects for the airport through 2018 including a commission to study the best use of 450 acres of
30
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each
undeveloped property the airport could use for an expansion. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 23, 2014 3,400-home project could create 1,900 jobs, developer’s study finds • An economic impact report commissioned by project developer Minto Communities Florida suggests that their proposed 3,400-home gated Tomoka Community could generate $17 million in annual property taxes and create 1,900 permanent jobs. • The community, which would be located just west of Interstate 95, would include a commercial center that could give the area a grocery store. The developer expects to spend $846 million to build the community in phases over a 15-year timeline. • Minto Communities Florida is seeking a rezone and change of permissible land from the city for the 1600-acre development site. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 22, 2014 Flagler tourism efforts ending year on high note
• With renewed group business and many new athletic events and conferences interest in coming to Flagler, Matt Dunn, Vice President of Tourism Development for the Flagler County Chamber of Commerce, said 2015 will be another busy year for the county. • Dunn believes that 2015 will bring increases across the board for the county, including a significant increase in monthly bed-tax collections throughout the calendar year.
• The continued economic strength of Canada and the United Kingdom has brought a significant number of international visitors to the county.
US Foods Port Orange Division wins $312.6M contract with U.S. Navy
• The Navy awarded the national food services provider’s Port Orange division with a two-year contract to feed Navy personnel at Florida bases.
• Local business leaders say the contract is likely the largest ever awarded to a company in the VolusiaFlagler area. The contract will run through Oct 9, 2016 with options to be renewed for three more years. • US Foods spokeswoman Lisa Lecas believes the contract will result in additional local jobs for the company, which currently employs 550 workers at its 409,000-square-foot Port Orange distribution center. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, October 22, 2014 New York manufacturer Skyo Industries to open Ormond plant early next year
• City Commission unanimously approved the city’s $35,000 portion of an economic incentive package to offset New York-based hand tool manufacturer Skyo Industries’ relocation costs to Ormond Beach Aiport Business Park. • Syko President Warren Anderson expects the plant to open in March, and is still waiting on official approval from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity for the state’s portion of the $175,000 performance-based incentive package for creating new jobs.
• The job-creation incentive will only be received if the company meets its goal of creating 35 jobs within three years that pay an average of $42,600 a year. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, December 3, 2014
Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 23, 2014
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
31
Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
14000.0 13500.0
8.0%
13000.0
6.0%
12500.0
1.4
1.6
(Millions 2000 $)
11500.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate
11000.0
(Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income
Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment
32
1.2
12000.0
4.0%
175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0
1.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
2.0%
0.8
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
15.6 -5.5 5.6 10.0 15.6 -5.4 31.4 31.4 35.7 -0.7
16.1 3.8 5.7 10.5 15.9 2.1 32.6 32.1 36.5 2.5
16.6 2.7 5.7 10.9 15.9 0.3 33.5 32.2 36.7 0.3
17.1 3.3 5.9 11.2 16.2 1.4 34.4 32.5 37.7 2.9
17.4 1.7 6.0 11.4 16.2 0.5 34.7 32.4 38.1 1.0
18.2 4.2 6.3 11.8 16.7 2.8 35.9 33.0 39.3 3.1
18.9 4.1 6.7 12.2 17.2 3.0 37.0 33.6 40.4 2.9
19.8 4.8 7.0 12.8 17.8 3.4 38.2 34.3 41.9 3.5
20.9 5.5 7.4 13.5 18.5 3.9 39.8 35.1 43.5 4.0
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 156.3 153.6 154.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 -1.7 0.4 Manufacturing 7.8 7.5 8.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -14.0 -3.9 8.5 Nonmanufacturing 148.4 146.0 146.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -1.6 0.0 Construction & Mining 8.9 7.9 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.0 -11.6 -6.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.1 30.0 30.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -0.5 0.2 Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.7 4.8 Retail Trade 23.2 23.3 23.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 1.9 1.8 Information 2.3 2.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.9 -10.9 -1.6 Financial Activities 7.1 7.2 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.8 0.7 2.2 Prof & Business Services 16.0 15.4 15.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -3.3 1.6 Educ & Health Services 31.5 31.7 32.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 0.6 1.9 Leisure & Hospitality 21.6 21.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.4 2.9 Other Services 8.2 7.9 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 -3.7 -6.3 Federal Government 1.4 1.5 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 5.8 -15.9 State & Local Government 21.3 20.9 20.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -1.7 -2.0
155.3 0.7 8.4 3.4 146.9 0.6 7.6 2.6 30.2 0.6 4.7 23.6 1.9 2.0 -1.3 7.6 3.9 16.3 4.0 32.3 0.2 22.7 2.4 7.4 -0.8 1.1 -11.1 19.7 -3.9
157.2 1.3 9.0 6.9 148.2 0.9 8.2 7.6 30.0 -0.5 4.3 23.7 2.0 1.8 -7.6 7.7 1.2 17.2 5.3 32.7 1.3 23.1 1.8 7.4 -0.1 1.1 -3.0 19.1 -3.3
160.2 1.9 9.4 4.4 150.8 1.7 8.5 4.7 30.0 0.1 4.2 23.9 2.0 1.7 -5.4 7.7 -0.1 18.6 8.4 32.7 0.0 23.7 2.6 7.7 4.7 1.1 0.3 19.0 -0.6
163.5 2.1 9.5 0.7 154.0 2.1 9.3 8.5 30.4 1.0 4.3 24.0 2.0 1.7 0.0 7.7 0.6 19.5 4.7 33.4 2.0 24.1 1.9 7.9 3.0 1.1 -0.3 18.9 -0.3
166.1 1.6 9.4 -0.6 156.7 1.7 10.2 10.2 30.5 0.5 4.4 24.0 2.0 1.8 2.3 7.7 0.2 20.2 3.6 33.9 1.6 24.3 0.5 8.0 1.3 1.1 -0.9 19.0 0.5
168.3 1.3 9.4 -0.5 159.0 1.4 11.1 8.9 30.6 0.3 4.5 23.7 2.1 1.8 0.9 7.7 -0.2 20.7 2.4 34.3 1.2 24.4 0.4 8.1 1.1 1.1 -0.9 19.2 1.0
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
497.5 0.5 252.1 0.0 8.9 766.1 749.0 17
501.4 0.8 251.8 -0.1 7.3 1432.9 1220.2 213
505.7 0.9 256.0 1.7 6.1 1596.7 1335.4 261
510.8 1.0 263.0 2.7 6.0 2963.2 1898.5 1065
517.8 1.4 269.8 2.6 6.4 3533.8 2444.0 1090
525.2 1.4 275.9 2.2 6.6 3914.3 2930.3 984
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
495.1 -0.4 252.4 -0.8 10.6 662.5 602.3 60
495.5 0.1 252.0 -0.2 11.5 718.0 658.9 59
494.9 -0.1 252.1 0.0 10.6 1021.9 504.7 517
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
33
Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each
Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
18.4 4.7 6.4 12
18.6 4.7 6.5 12.1
18.8 3.9 6.6 12.2
19 3.8 6.7 12.3
19.2 4 6.8 12.4
19.4 4.2 6.9 12.6
19.7 4.6 6.9 12.7
19.9 5 7 12.9
20.2 5.3 7.1 13.1
20.5 5.5 7.2 13.3
20.8 5.7 7.3 13.4
21 5.6 7.4 13.6
21.3 5.4 7.5 13.8
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.9 3.4
17 3.5
17.1 2.9
17.2 2.7
17.3 2.7
17.5 2.8
17.7 3.2
17.8 3.7
18 3.9
18.2 4
18.4 4
18.5 3.9
18.7 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
36.3 33.3
36.7 33.5
36.9 33.6
37.1 33.6
37.4 33.8
37.7 34
38 34.2
38.4 34.4
38.8 34.6
39.2 34.9
39.6 35.1
40 35.2
40.3 35.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
39.7 3.9
40 3
40.3 2.7
40.6 2.9
40.9 3.1
41.3 3.3
41.7 3.5
42.1 3.7
42.5 3.7
42.9 3.9
43.3 3.9
43.8 4
44.2 4.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
161.3 1.5
162.2 2
163.2 1.9
164 2.3
164.5 2
165.2 1.8
165.7 1.6
166.5 1.5
167.2 1.6
167.6 1.5
168.2 1.5
168.6 1.3
169 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
9.4 2.5
9.4 1
9.5 0.2
9.5 1
9.5 0.5
9.4 0.1
9.4 -0.5
9.4 -0.7
9.4 -1
9.4 -0.8
9.4 -0.4
9.4 -0.4
9.3 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
151.9 1.5
152.8 2.1
153.7 2
154.5 2.3
155.1 2.1
155.7 1.9
156.3 1.7
157 1.6
157.8 1.7
158.2 1.6
158.8 1.6
159.2 1.4
159.6 1.2
8.8 5
9 6.4
9.2 7.8
9.4 10.3
9.6 9.6
9.8 9.6
10.1 10
10.4 10.4
10.6 10.7
10.9 10.7
11 9.6
11.2 8.2
11.4 7.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.1 -0.8
30.2 0.3
30.3 0.7
30.4 1.8
30.5 1.3
30.5 0.9
30.5 0.5
30.5 0.2
30.5 0.2
30.5 0.2
30.6 0.3
30.6 0.4
30.7 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.2 23.9 1.9
4.2 24 1.9
4.3 24 1.9
4.3 24.1 2
4.3 24.1 2
4.3 24 2
4.4 24 2
4.4 23.9 2
4.4 23.9 2
4.5 23.8 2.1
4.5 23.8 2.1
4.5 23.7 2.1
4.6 23.7 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 -3.8
1.7 -1.1
1.7 -0.8
1.7 1.6
1.7 0.3
1.7 -1.2
1.8 2.5
1.8 4.2
1.8 3.7
1.8 3.6
1.8 1.1
1.8 -0.6
1.8 -0.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.7 -0.2
7.7 0.2
7.7 0.5
7.7 0.9
7.7 0.7
7.7 0.5
7.7 0.3
7.7 0
7.7 0.1
7.7 0.1
7.7 0
7.7 -0.2
7.7 -0.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.9 6.3
19.1 5.1
19.4 4.7
19.6 4.3
19.8 4.6
20 4.3
20.1 3.6
20.3 3.3
20.5 3.2
20.6 3.1
20.7 3
20.7 2.2
20.8 1.5
33 1.1
33.1 2.8
33.4 1.8
33.5 1.9
33.5 1.6
33.6 1.5
33.9 1.3
34 1.5
34.2 2
34.2 1.7
34.3 1.4
34.4 1.1
34.4 0.6
23.9 1.3
24 1.7
24.1 2.5
24.2 1.8
24.2 1.5
24.3 1.1
24.2 0.6
24.2 0.2
24.2 0
24.3 -0.2
24.3 0.3
24.4 0.7
24.5 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9 5.6
7.9 5.1
7.9 4.2
7.9 1.5
8 1.5
8 1.2
8 1.3
8.1 1.3
8.1 1.5
8.1 1.4
8.1 1.2
8.1 1.1
8.2 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1 0.7
1.1 0.3
1.1 -1
1.1 0
1.1 -0.6
1.1 -0.7
1.1 -0.9
1.1 -1
1.1 -1
1.1 -0.9
1.1 -0.8
1.1 -0.9
1.1 -1
18.9 -0.7
18.9 -0.7
18.9 -1.2
18.9 0.3
18.9 0.3
18.9 0.3
19 0.4
19 0.6
19 0.6
19.1 0.8
19.1 0.9
19.2 1
19.3 1.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
507.3 0.8
508.5 0.9
509.9 0.9
511.5 1.1
513.2 1.2
515 1.3
516.8 1.4
518.7 1.4
520.7 1.5
522.5 1.5
524.3 1.4
526.1 1.4
527.9 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
257.7 2.3
260 2.3
262.2 2.3
264.1 3.1
265.8 3.1
267.4 2.8
269 2.6
270.6 2.5
272.2 2.4
273.7 2.4
275.2 2.3
276.6 2.2
277.9 2.1
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
2010 1416 594
2453 1649 804
2861 1826 1035
3174 2017 1157
3365 2102 1263
3489 2212 1277
3461 2321 1140
3451 2499 952
3734 2743 990
3852 2858 994
3885 2921 964
3956 2967 989
3964 2975 990
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
34
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Gaines v ille
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the central-north portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.
The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.3 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $37,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $46,000. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,250.72 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 4.7 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.5 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. The Information, Financial Activities, and Federal Government sectors will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.3, -0.3, and -1.7 percent, respectively.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 144,979 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,764 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000
• Alachua County School Board – 4,200
• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160
Gainesville Dojo’s former location to be demolished to make way for office building
• City of Gainesville – 2,270
• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200
• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910
Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce
• Soon the location previously filled by the Gainesville Dojo will be demolished in order to accommodate the construction of a two-story, 15,000-squarefoot office building being developed by Trimark Properties. • The demolition and construction is planned for early 2015 and is expected to be completed in late 2015. The new Nimbus building will be geared towards office and research uses.
• The new plan involves converting Fifth Terrance to a one-way South-flowing street with angled on-street parking.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
35
Gaines v ille
• Trimark is actively developing the Innovation Square area. The company has already completed several building renovations. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 3, 2014 Noodle House, Faith Vietnamese coming; Sharab closes
• University Towne Center, located at 3117 34th St., will soon welcome Noodle House. The restaurant is taking over the space that has been vacant since the departure of Fresco Neighborhood Italian in December 2012. Noodle House is expected to open by the end of the 2014.
• Nearby at 808 W. University Ave, a business named Faith Vietnamese Restaurant is moving in. The space was previously occupied by Saigon Café and Sushi 2 Go, which are now at 1412 W. University Ave. • In downtown Gainesville, Sharab Lounge on Main Street has closed. Tom Fox, who has owned the building for 20 years, said he is in negotiations with two other serious parties to lease. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 31, 2014 Drivers can give thanks for lowest pump prices in 5 years
• The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $2.82 on November 24, 2014, down 46 cents from Thanksgiving Day 2013. • The price of a gallon in Gainesville on November 24 was $2.85, six cents less than the previous week’s $2.91 according to the website GasBuddy.com.
• Mark Jenkins, AAA- The Auto Club Group spokesman says “Travelers are thankful to have more money in their pockets due to falling gas prices. The good news is gas should continue falling through the rest of the year. Cheaper gasoline has helped boost disposable income and consumer spending, which encourages more people to travel.” Source: Gainesville Sun, November 24, 2014
36
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Jobless rate dips slightly in October
• Gainesville experienced a decline in the unemployment rate in October from 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent. This is thought to be due to a decline in job growth of 0.1 percent. Gainesville’s job growth now matches that of the state at 6.0 percent, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. • The Gainesville metro area (comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties) had a labor force of 144,979 in October and 6,764 people unemployed. In September these figures were 145,303 and 7,071, respectively. • Employer surveys of job growth depict Gainesville as having a slower job growth rate than that of the state of Florida and of the country as a whole. The surveys pegged the Gainesville job growth rate at 1.2 percent, compared to a state rate of 2.7 percent.
Source: Gainesville Sun, November, 21, 2014 Halcyon Manufacturing expands, while bank, credit union grow
• Halcyon Manufacturing is expanding its presence in Gainesville through the purchase of a 23,000-square-foot warehouse and office space. This represents a 100% increase in space for the scuba diving equipment manufacturer. • According to Chief Operating Officer Mark Messersmith, the company requires the additional space to accommodate new product development.
• Also growing, Citizens State Bank has opened its second location in Gainesville in the Magnolia Parke office complex at 4620 NW 39th Ave. The bank wanted to provide location convenience to its customers. • The bank currently employs 54 people and has total assets worth $240 million. It was founded in 1958 and has locations in Perry, Madison, and Steinhatchee. Source: Gainesville Sun, December 3, 2014
Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
1
1.5
11000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
10500.0 10000.0
8.0%
9500.0
6.0%
9000.0 8500.0
4.0%
8000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate
7500.0
(Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Gainesville Payroll Employment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Gainesville Real Personal Income
Gainesville Payroll Employment 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0
2.5
Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
2.0%
2
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
37
Gaines v ille
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
9.0 -3.5 5.2 3.8 9.0 -3.4 34.1 34.1 40.3 3.0
9.4 4.3 5.2 4.2 9.2 2.6 35.4 34.8 40.8 1.3
9.9 5.4 5.3 4.6 9.5 2.9 37.1 35.6 41.3 1.4
10.2 3.3 5.4 4.8 9.6 1.4 38.0 35.8 42.1 1.9
10.3 1.3 5.5 4.8 9.6 0.1 38.2 35.6 42.6 1.0
10.7 3.5 5.7 5.0 9.8 2.1 39.3 36.2 43.7 2.6
11.1 3.9 6.0 5.1 10.1 2.8 40.6 36.9 45.1 3.2
11.6 4.5 6.3 5.4 10.4 3.1 42.0 37.7 46.7 3.6
12.2 5.2 6.6 5.7 10.8 3.5 43.8 38.7 48.6 4.0
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 127.4 126.7 126.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -0.6 0.0 Manufacturing 4.7 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.0 -5.7 -0.9 Nonmanufacturing 122.7 122.2 122.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -0.4 0.1 Construction & Mining 4.6 4.2 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.3 -9.0 -8.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.2 17.9 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -1.6 1.0 Wholesale Trade 2.4 2.3 2.4 Retail Trade 13.3 13.2 13.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.3 2.3 Information 1.6 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.8 -6.7 -0.5 Financial Activities 6.0 6.0 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -0.4 2.0 Prof & Business Services 10.3 10.4 10.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 0.6 3.7 Educ & Health Services 22.0 22.1 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.7 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 13.6 13.2 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -3.0 0.8 Other Services 4.2 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -2.8 0.7 Federal Government 4.3 4.7 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 10.9 -6.1 State & Local Government 37.9 38.1 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 0.6 -0.8
128.1 1.1 4.4 0.4 123.7 1.1 4.3 10.6 18.2 0.6 2.5 13.3 2.4 1.5 -2.9 6.3 3.6 11.3 4.5 22.9 2.2 13.4 0.7 4.1 -1.6 4.4 -1.2 37.5 -0.7
128.9 0.6 4.5 1.5 124.4 0.6 4.3 1.2 18.3 0.6 2.6 13.1 2.5 1.5 1.7 6.2 -1.7 11.4 1.1 23.2 1.4 13.8 2.6 4.0 -0.4 4.4 0.6 37.4 -0.4
130.5 1.3 4.6 2.1 126.0 1.2 4.1 -5.0 18.5 1.5 2.7 13.3 2.5 1.4 -4.2 6.2 -0.7 11.5 1.4 24.1 3.9 14.4 4.7 4.0 -1.1 4.3 -3.1 37.4 0.1
132.3 1.4 4.6 1.2 127.7 1.4 4.4 7.9 18.7 1.0 2.7 13.4 2.6 1.4 0.9 6.2 0.2 12.0 3.8 24.4 1.4 14.7 1.7 4.0 0.9 4.2 -0.6 37.6 0.5
133.6 1.0 4.6 -0.4 129.0 1.0 4.9 10.2 18.8 0.1 2.8 13.2 2.6 1.4 1.7 6.2 0.0 12.4 3.5 24.6 0.9 14.7 0.3 4.1 0.9 4.2 -1.6 37.8 0.5
134.8 0.8 4.6 -0.4 130.2 0.9 5.3 8.9 18.8 0.0 2.9 13.1 2.7 1.5 0.5 6.2 -0.5 12.7 2.2 24.8 0.5 14.7 0.1 4.1 0.5 4.1 -1.6 38.1 0.9
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
268.9 0.7 140.8 0.7 6.6 575.1 397.6 177
270.6 0.7 140.2 -0.4 5.5 722.1 506.2 216
272.1 0.6 142.4 1.6 4.9 715.7 488.8 227
274.4 0.8 145.7 2.3 4.6 952.7 571.6 381
276.7 0.9 148.8 2.1 4.6 1177.0 670.5 506
279.1 0.9 151.2 1.6 4.7 1302.9 791.1 512
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
38
263.7 0.7 137.7 -1.0 7.1 511.7 363.6 148
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
265.2 0.6 138.7 0.7 8.0 509.1 406.6 102
266.9 0.7 139.9 0.8 7.7 446.1 299.4 147
Gaines v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
10.9 4.1 5.8 5.1
11 4.3 5.9 5.1
11.1 4 6 5.1
11.2 3.7 6 5.1
11.3 3.8 6.1 5.2
11.4 4 6.2 5.3
11.6 4.3 6.2 5.3
11.7 4.7 6.3 5.4
11.8 5 6.4 5.5
12 5.1 6.5 5.6
12.2 5.3 6.5 5.6
12.3 5.2 6.6 5.7
12.4 5 6.7 5.8
10 2.8
10.1 3.1
10.1 3.1
10.1 2.7
10.2 2.5
10.3 2.6
10.4 2.9
10.5 3.3
10.6 3.6
10.7 3.6
10.8 3.6
10.8 3.5
10.9 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
39.9 36.5
40.2 36.8
40.4 36.8
40.7 36.9
41 37.1
41.4 37.4
41.8 37.6
42.2 37.8
42.7 38.1
43.2 38.4
43.6 38.6
44 38.8
44.4 39
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
44.2 3.3
44.5 3.2
44.9 3.2
45.2 3.3
45.6 3.3
46 3.4
46.5 3.6
46.9 3.7
47.4 3.8
47.8 3.9
48.3 3.9
48.8 4
49.3 4.1
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
131.2 1
131.7 1.2
132.2 1.7
132.6 1.5
132.8 1.2
133.1 1.1
133.4 0.9
133.8 0.9
134.1 1
134.4 0.9
134.7 0.9
134.9 0.8
135.1 0.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6 1.4
4.6 1.7
4.6 1.3
4.6 1.2
4.6 0.7
4.6 0.3
4.6 -0.4
4.6 -0.6
4.6 -0.9
4.6 -0.7
4.6 -0.3
4.6 -0.3
4.6 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
126.6 1
127.1 1.2
127.6 1.7
128 1.5
128.2 1.3
128.5 1.1
128.8 1
129.2 1
129.6 1.1
129.8 1
130.1 1
130.3 0.9
130.5 0.7
4.2 2.6
4.3 4.9
4.4 6.8
4.5 10.6
4.6 9.2
4.7 9.5
4.8 10
4.9 10.4
5.1 10.8
5.2 10.8
5.3 9.7
5.3 8.2
5.4 7.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
18.6 0.7
18.7 0.9
18.7 1.1
18.8 1.3
18.8 0.8
18.8 0.5
18.8 0.2
18.7 -0.1
18.8 -0.1
18.7 -0.1
18.8 0
18.8 0.1
18.8 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.7 13.3 2.6
2.7 13.4 2.6
2.7 13.4 2.6
2.7 13.4 2.6
2.8 13.4 2.6
2.8 13.3 2.6
2.8 13.3 2.6
2.8 13.2 2.7
2.8 13.2 2.7
2.8 13.1 2.7
2.8 13.1 2.7
2.9 13 2.7
2.9 13 2.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -5.5
1.4 1.3
1.4 1.8
1.4 0.9
1.4 -0.4
1.4 -1.9
1.5 1.8
1.5 3.6
1.5 3.1
1.5 3.1
1.5 0.6
1.5 -0.9
1.5 -0.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.2 -1.3
6.2 -0.6
6.2 0.1
6.2 0.7
6.2 0.5
6.2 0.2
6.2 0
6.2 -0.3
6.2 -0.1
6.2 -0.2
6.2 -0.2
6.2 -0.4
6.1 -1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11.7 1.1
11.8 2.2
11.9 4.3
12.1 4.2
12.2 4.5
12.3 4.2
12.3 3.5
12.4 3.2
12.6 3.1
12.6 2.9
12.7 2.8
12.7 2
12.7 1.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.2 2.2
24.3 1.7
24.5 1.7
24.5 1.2
24.4 0.9
24.5 0.9
24.6 0.6
24.7 0.8
24.8 1.4
24.7 1
24.8 0.7
24.8 0.4
24.8 0
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
14.5 4.5
14.6 1.7
14.7 2
14.7 1.6
14.7 1.4
14.8 1
14.7 0.4
14.7 0
14.7 -0.3
14.7 -0.5
14.7 0
14.8 0.4
14.8 0.7
4 0.4
4 0
4 1.5
4 1.1
4 1
4.1 0.8
4.1 0.9
4.1 0.8
4.1 1
4.1 0.9
4.1 0.6
4.1 0.5
4.1 0.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 -3.4
4.3 -0.8
4.3 0.4
4.2 -0.7
4.2 -1.3
4.2 -1.4
4.2 -1.6
4.2 -1.7
4.2 -1.7
4.1 -1.6
4.1 -1.5
4.1 -1.7
4.1 -1.8
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
37.5 0.2
37.6 0.7
37.6 1
37.6 0.2
37.6 0.3
37.7 0.3
37.7 0.4
37.8 0.6
37.8 0.6
38 0.7
38.1 0.9
38.2 1
38.3 1.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
272.8 0.6
273.5 0.7
274.1 0.8
274.7 0.9
275.3 0.9
275.9 0.9
276.4 0.9
277 0.8
277.6 0.8
278.2 0.8
278.8 0.9
279.4 0.9
280.1 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
143.1 2.1
144.3 1.8
145.3 1.8
146.3 2.8
147 2.8
147.8 2.4
148.4 2.1
149.1 2
149.8 1.8
150.3 1.8
150.9 1.7
151.4 1.5
151.9 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%)
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
737 481 256
818 527 291
921 559 362
1004 597 407
1067 603 463
1123 619 505
1144 639 505
1178 680 499
1263 745 518
1290 774 516
1290 789 501
1316 801 515
1316 800 515
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
39
J ackson v ille
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.
The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.3 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $42,000, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $52,800. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 63,948.43 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 734,947 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.6% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,931 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820
• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500
• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200
• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 40
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Employment growth is expected to average 2.3 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.6 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 7.2 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent, and then the Leisure and Hospitality sector with an average growth rate of 3.3 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.5 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES 418-unit single-family community set for St. Johns County
• Double Eagle Development will hold the ceremonial groundbreaking for Treaty Oaks development on December 5th. Construction will be completed by WG Pitts Company with funding from STI Funding. • The 165-acre development is located one mile east of Interstate 95 on route 207, 10 minutes from downtown St. Augustine.
• The new community has an estimated cost of $15 million and has a timeline of three to four years for completion. Home prices will start in the mid$200,000s. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 25, 2014
J ackson v ille
Artificial reefs near downtown Jacksonville will bring fish and fisherman to St. Johns River • Crews will install reefs in St. John’s River south of Fuller Warren Bridge, providing fishermen with a productive fishing area close to downtown.
• The Jacksonville chapter of the Costal Conservation Association started the habitat enhancement project. The $59,000 was covered by a $30,000 grant from the Florida Department of Wildlife and Conservation and $30,000 from country singer Kenny Chesney. • TISIRI, a nonprofit organization with previous reef installation experience in North Florida, will manage the project, which will include two 200-foot-by-200-foot reefs. Source: Florida Times-Union, December 4, 2014 Jaxport Asian container volumes up 20 percent
• Asian container trade, the fastest growing segment of Jaxport’s container cargo business, has grown 20 percent year-over-year.
• Los Angeles ranked first, followed by Kansas City, Missouri and Seattle, Washington tied for second place. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 18, 2014 Bids to open for Mile Point project
• The Mile Point dredging project will correct crosscurrents from the Intercostal Waterway and St. John’s River that currently keep larger ships from crossing the channel.
• At an expected cost of $25 million to $50 million, the project will include 4,000 feet of a west leg training wall, removing 3,300 feet of an existing wall, dredging the area, demolishing the U.S. Coast Guard structure, and monitoring wildlife. • Solicitation will begin on December 15 with responses taking place by February 13, 2015.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 2, 2014
• In the fiscal year ending in September, 272,524 twenty-foot-long containers were moved compared to 226,038 last year. Asian container trade now accounts for 30 percent of business, and has averaged 28.5 percent annually over the last five years.
• Data on container shipments came from the port authority’s tracking of tenant container volume on its docks. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 29, 2014 Jacksonville named No. 3 in digital cities of U.S.
• Jacksonville ranked 3rd for the second year in a row in the Center for Digital Government’s annual survey.
• Criteria for the survey included areas of citizen engagement, policy operations, technology and data, and infrastructure resources.
• Mayor Alvin Brown said in a press release, “We can be proud of Jacksonville’s success in being recognized once again as a national leader in using digital technology to provide innovative, cost-effective services for our citizens and businesses.” Institute for Economic Competitiveness
41
J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
0.6
0.8
1
70000.0
55000.0
4.0%
50000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate
45000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
(Thousands)
660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Jacksonville Real Personal Income
Jacksonville Payroll Employment
42
1.8
Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product
6.0%
540.0
1.6
60000.0
8.0%
680.0
1.4
65000.0
10.0%
2.0%
1.2
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
J ackson v ille
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
51.3 -4.6 27.3 24.1 51.3 -4.6 38.4 38.4 45.3 0.8
53.3 3.8 27.7 25.5 52.4 2.1 39.5 38.8 46.3 2.3
55.8 4.7 28.5 27.3 53.6 2.2 40.9 39.3 47.1 1.7
57.8 3.6 29.7 28.0 54.5 1.7 41.9 39.5 48.6 3.2
59.1 2.4 30.6 28.5 55.1 1.2 42.3 39.4 49.0 0.8
62.4 5.4 32.4 30.0 57.3 4.0 44.1 40.5 50.3 2.7
65.4 4.9 34.2 31.2 59.5 3.8 45.6 41.5 51.7 2.8
68.7 5.1 35.9 32.8 61.7 3.7 47.2 42.4 53.5 3.4
72.7 5.8 37.8 34.9 64.2 4.1 49.2 43.5 55.6 3.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 583.5 580.0 586.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.6 1.1 Manufacturing 29.2 27.5 27.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -6.0 -0.1 Nonmanufacturing 554.3 552.6 559.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -0.3 1.2 Construction & Mining 33.4 29.2 27.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -23.4 -12.7 -5.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 126.9 124.4 124.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 -2.0 -0.2 Wholesale Trade 26.7 25.6 24.8 Retail Trade 69.5 68.8 69.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.7 30.0 30.3 Information 10.3 10.2 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -1.6 -5.6 Financial Activities 55.7 55.7 58.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 0.0 4.1 Prof & Business Services 79.4 82.4 87.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 3.7 6.3 Educ & Health Services 83.7 85.7 87.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 65.3 65.0 66.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -0.4 2.0 Other Services 23.2 23.0 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.1 -0.9 -6.0 Federal Government 17.5 18.0 17.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.9 -3.8 State & Local Government 58.8 59.1 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.4 0.2
594.6 1.4 27.9 1.6 566.7 1.4 27.8 1.0 125.5 1.1 24.7 70.2 30.6 9.2 -4.0 60.0 3.5 91.0 3.9 89.2 1.6 69.0 4.1 20.3 -5.9 17.3 -0.4 57.4 -3.0
608.5 2.3 28.1 0.7 580.5 2.4 30.2 8.7 128.2 2.2 25.1 71.9 31.2 9.1 -1.2 61.0 1.7 94.5 3.8 90.7 1.7 72.4 4.9 20.4 0.3 17.0 -1.4 56.9 -0.8
627.6 3.1 28.5 1.6 599.1 3.2 32.0 6.0 130.5 1.8 25.1 73.2 32.1 9.1 0.1 61.8 1.3 102.1 8.0 91.4 0.8 78.1 7.9 20.5 0.6 16.7 -2.0 56.8 -0.2
644.1 2.6 29.1 2.1 615.0 2.7 34.4 7.3 133.1 2.0 25.7 74.2 32.9 9.1 0.0 62.9 1.9 106.9 4.7 93.8 2.6 80.6 3.2 20.7 1.2 16.4 -1.5 57.0 0.4
655.2 1.7 29.1 0.0 626.1 1.8 36.9 7.3 135.0 1.4 26.4 74.1 34.0 9.2 1.4 63.2 0.4 109.7 2.7 96.0 2.3 81.4 1.0 21.0 1.3 16.3 -1.1 57.3 0.6
665.6 1.6 29.1 -0.2 636.5 1.7 39.9 8.0 136.8 1.4 27.2 73.8 35.1 9.3 0.7 63.4 0.3 112.1 2.2 97.5 1.5 82.2 1.0 21.3 1.3 16.0 -1.3 58.0 1.2
1380.1 1.2 696.8 0.8 8.4 6373.2 4539.2 1834
1396.9 1.2 702.0 0.7 6.9 7242.4 6125.5 1117
1414.4 1.3 722.8 3.0 5.9 7717.1 6389.1 1328
1433.9 1.4 738.1 2.1 5.5 8902.0 6723.8 2178
1455.0 1.5 750.0 1.6 5.4 10438.5 6917.8 3521
1477.1 1.5 761.3 1.5 5.4 11711.2 7988.3 3723
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
1336.9 1.0 681.1 -0.9 9.8 4935.1 3400.5 1535
1350.4 1.0 686.9 0.9 10.9 3710.4 3562.4 148
1363.7 1.0 691.3 0.6 9.9 3577.4 3173.8 404
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
43
J ackson v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
63.6 6.1 33.1 30.6
64.4 5.8 33.5 30.9
65 4.9 34 31.1
65.7 4.3 34.4 31.3
66.4 4.4 34.8 31.7
67.4 4.7 35.2 32.2
68.2 4.9 35.7 32.6
69.1 5.3 36.1 33
70.2 5.6 36.6 33.6
71.3 5.7 37.1 34.2
72.3 5.9 37.6 34.7
73.2 5.9 38.1 35.1
74.2 5.7 38.6 35.6
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
58.3 4.7
58.9 4.6
59.2 4
59.6 3.3
60.1 3.1
60.8 3.3
61.4 3.6
61.9 3.9
62.6 4.2
63.4 4.2
63.9 4.2
64.5 4.2
65.1 4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
44.8 41
45.2 41.3
45.4 41.4
45.7 41.5
46.1 41.7
46.6 42
47 42.3
47.4 42.5
47.9 42.8
48.5 43.1
49 43.4
49.5 43.6
49.9 43.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
50.7 3.2
51.2 2.7
51.5 2.7
51.9 2.9
52.3 3.2
52.8 3.2
53.3 3.3
53.7 3.5
54.2 3.6
54.8 3.7
55.3 3.8
55.8 4
56.4 4.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
635.6 3
639.4 3.3
642.8 3
645.9 2.2
648.4 2
651.1 1.8
653.7 1.7
656.5 1.6
659.7 1.7
662.1 1.7
664.6 1.7
666.8 1.6
668.8 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
28.9 2.4
29 2.5
29.1 2.8
29.2 2
29.2 1.3
29.2 0.9
29.1 0.1
29.1 -0.2
29.1 -0.6
29.1 -0.5
29.1 -0.2
29.1 -0.1
29.1 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
606.7 3
610.4 3.3
613.7 3
616.7 2.2
619.1 2
621.9 1.9
624.6 1.8
627.4 1.7
630.6 1.9
633 1.8
635.5 1.8
637.7 1.6
639.7 1.4
32.8 4.4
33.4 6.4
34.1 7.9
34.8 7.4
35.3 7.5
35.9 7.4
36.5 7.2
37.1 6.9
38 7.7
38.7 7.9
39.5 8.2
40.3 8.4
40.9 7.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
131.5 1.5
132.1 1.8
132.7 2
133.5 2.2
133.9 1.8
134.3 1.6
134.7 1.5
135.2 1.3
135.7 1.3
136.1 1.3
136.6 1.4
137 1.4
137.5 1.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
25.2 73.6 32.5
25.4 73.9 32.6
25.6 74.1 32.8
25.8 74.3 33.1
26 74.3 33.3
26.2 74.2 33.6
26.4 74.1 33.9
26.5 74 34.2
26.7 74 34.5
26.9 73.8 34.8
27.1 73.8 35
27.2 73.8 35.2
27.4 73.7 35.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
9.1 0.1
9.2 0.7
9.1 -0.6
9.1 0.6
9 -0.9
9 -2.2
9.3 1.5
9.4 3.4
9.3 2.9
9.3 3
9.3 0.7
9.3 -0.7
9.3 -0.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
62.7 3.5
63 4.2
62.9 2.2
63 0.7
62.9 0.4
63.1 0.2
63.1 0.3
63.2 0.4
63.4 0.8
63.5 0.7
63.5 0.6
63.4 0.2
63.1 -0.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
105 7
105.7 6.1
106.5 7
107.3 3
108 2.9
108.6 2.8
109.2 2.6
110.1 2.6
111 2.7
111.6 2.7
112 2.5
112.2 1.9
112.6 1.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
92.2 2
92.8 2.5
93.8 3
94.3 2.5
94.5 2.5
95.1 2.4
95.9 2.2
96.3 2.1
96.9 2.6
97.1 2.1
97.4 1.6
97.6 1.4
97.8 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
79.5 5.6
80.1 5.9
80.4 2.5
80.8 2.3
81.2 2.1
81.4 1.7
81.3 1.2
81.4 0.8
81.5 0.4
81.7 0.3
82 0.8
82.4 1.3
82.9 1.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
20.6 0.1
20.6 0.8
20.7 1.2
20.8 1.3
20.8 1.3
20.9 1.2
21 1.3
21 1.3
21.1 1.3
21.2 1.3
21.2 1.3
21.3 1.2
21.4 1.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
16.5 -2.6
16.5 -2.6
16.5 -2.1
16.4 -0.4
16.4 -0.9
16.3 -0.9
16.3 -1.2
16.2 -1.2
16.2 -1.2
16.1 -1.2
16.1 -1.1
16 -1.3
15.9 -1.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
56.9 -0.3
56.9 0.6
57 0.2
57 0.4
57.1 0.4
57.2 0.4
57.3 0.6
57.4 0.7
57.5 0.7
57.7 0.9
57.9 1.1
58.1 1.2
58.3 1.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1421.3 1.3
1426.3 1.3
1431.3 1.4
1436.4 1.4
1441.6 1.4
1446.9 1.4
1452.2 1.5
1457.6 1.5
1463.2 1.5
1468.8 1.5
1474.3 1.5
1479.9 1.5
1485.6 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
729 3.6
732.9 2.8
736.7 1.9
739.9 1.9
742.7 1.9
745.5 1.7
748.4 1.6
751.5 1.6
754.6 1.6
757.4 1.6
760.1 1.6
762.7 1.5
765.1 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
44
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
7746 6593 1152
8178 6717 1461
8699 6715 1984
9203 6820 2383
9528 6644 2884
9936 6609 3327
10127 6646 3481
10467 6921 3546
11224 7496 3729
11537 7787 3749
11613 7963 3650
11832 8083 3749
11863 8120 3743
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
L akelan d
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.
The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at average of 4.6 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $35,500, the third lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $45,200. Population growth is expected to average 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 17,598.35 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 277,154 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 6.8% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,884 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644
• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,300
• Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900
• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625
• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council
Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 6.6 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 7.3 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities sector averaging 1.8 percent annual growth, and the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 1.5 percent. The Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -2.6 and -0.5 percent respectively.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Unemployment Down, In Polk County; Job Growth Still Weak
• According to government workforce data, Polk’s unemployment dropped to 6.8 percent in October, down from 7.8 percent the year before and 7.3 percent in September.
• The county recorded 1,800 more jobs than in October 2013. Industries with the most job growth included retail, education and health services, and manufacturing. • Florida’s unemployment rate stands at 6.0 percent in October and is the lowest jobless rate since June 2008. The October national unemployment rate stood at 5.8 percent. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 21, 2014
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
45
L akelan d
2014-15 forecast: Citrus Season Shapes Up Favorably
• Marisa Zansler, chief economist at the Florida Department of Citrus believes Orange growers should see higher farm prices for the fruit in the current season, which began Oct 1. Zansler predicts a 10.5 percent increase in price for early and midseason oranges harvests from October to March.
• Due to greening primarily, Florida orange production has been reduced from 242 million boxes in the 2003-04 season to just 108 million boxes this season. Meanwhile growers in Brazil, the largest orange grower and OJ processor country in the world, are predicting a 6 percent increase in their 2014-15 crop. • With 81,810 grove acres and 10 million trees at the start of the 2014-15 season, Polk leads the state’s citrus-producing counties.
Source: Lakeland Ledger, October 23, 2014 Publix Reports Profits Up 6.8 percent, Stock Down Slightly
• Lakeland-based Publix Super Markets Inc. made a quarterly profit of $384.2 million, up 6.8 percent from the same time last year.
• Total sales were $7.5 billion, an increase of 5.1 percent on an annual basis. Same-store sales (which measures sales activity at locations open at least a year) grew by 5 percent. • According to the Department of Agriculture, September’s overall grocery prices were up 3.2 percent compared to the same time last year. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 3, 2014 Winter Haven Chamber Leads ‘Shop Local’ Promotion • Winter Haven Chamber of Commerce launched a “Tis the Season to Shop Local” promotion aimed at encouraging consumers to support businesses in the area. • Chamber President and CEO Katie Worthington estimated 80 percent of the chamber’s 650 members are small businesses—those with 50 or fewer workers. 46
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
• The promotion will last November 7 to December 24. Businesses were invited to send any discounts they wanted advertised to be included in the Chamber’s promotional flier. Source: Lakeland Ledger, October 30, 2014 Lakeland Lands AutoFest Events
• Beginning in November 2015, the Sun ‘n Fun complex will welcome AutoFest, a pair of annual events currently held each fall and winter in Zephryhills.
• Michael Garland, spokesman for Autofest organizer Carlisle Events, estimates that Autofest brings 20,000 to 30,000 people to Festival Park in Zephyrhills. With the relocation to Lakeland, the event will be able to expand capacity to accommodate a collector car show, more space for vendors, and room to park overnight campers, RVs, and pilots flying in.
• The Fall Autofest will be held November 12-15, 2015, and the Winter Autofest will be held February 25-28, 2016. Events will include a swap meet, classic cars for sale, and a 300-plus car auction. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 13, 2014
L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
2.5
19000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
18000.0
16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate
(Thousands)
210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0
2
Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product
13000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Lakeland Payroll Employment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Lakeland Real Personal Income
Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0
1.5
17000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
1
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
47
L akelan d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
18.7 -3.8 7.7 11.0 18.7 -3.7 31.2 31.2 39.0 0.9
19.8 6.0 7.7 12.2 19.5 4.3 32.8 32.3 39.9 2.3
21.3 7.3 7.8 13.5 20.4 4.7 34.8 33.5 40.6 1.6
22.0 3.5 8.0 14.0 20.8 1.7 35.7 33.7 41.4 2.1
22.6 2.4 8.3 14.3 21.0 1.2 36.2 33.7 41.9 1.1
23.5 4.2 8.7 14.9 21.6 2.8 37.3 34.3 43.1 2.9
24.5 4.1 9.1 15.4 22.3 3.0 38.5 35.0 44.3 2.8
25.7 4.8 9.5 16.1 23.0 3.4 40.0 35.9 45.8 3.4
27.1 5.5 10.0 17.1 23.9 3.8 41.6 36.8 47.6 3.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 195.8 191.1 190.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -2.4 -0.5 Manufacturing 14.8 14.2 14.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3 -4.3 0.0 Nonmanufacturing 181.0 176.9 175.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -2.3 -0.6 Construction & Mining 12.1 11.0 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.3 -8.8 -5.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 45.3 44.9 46.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 -0.9 2.4 Wholesale Trade 9.1 8.7 9.0 Retail Trade 24.2 24.2 24.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.0 12.5 Information 1.9 1.8 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.2 -7.0 -6.6 Financial Activities 12.0 11.8 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -1.7 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 27.4 25.7 24.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 -6.3 -5.4 Educ & Health Services 29.0 29.2 29.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 0.5 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 17.3 16.8 17.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -3.3 6.0 Other Services 6.1 5.8 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 -4.5 -7.0 Federal Government 1.4 1.6 1.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 15.8 -24.6 State & Local Government 28.5 28.4 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.3 -1.6
192.6 1.3 14.6 2.9 178.0 1.2 10.2 -1.4 47.1 2.4 9.2 24.6 13.2 1.6 -3.0 11.4 -1.4 25.4 4.4 29.4 -0.9 18.9 6.1 5.3 -2.0 1.1 -7.6 27.6 -1.3
197.1 2.3 15.7 7.6 181.4 1.9 10.9 6.4 48.2 2.5 9.5 25.3 13.4 1.6 -1.6 11.6 1.6 26.2 3.3 29.9 1.6 19.6 3.8 5.2 -1.4 1.1 -3.8 27.1 -1.8
199.8 1.4 16.3 3.6 183.6 1.2 11.1 2.4 49.9 3.5 10.0 26.2 13.7 1.6 1.0 11.7 1.0 26.0 -0.9 30.4 1.8 20.2 3.1 5.2 0.0 1.0 -6.3 26.4 -2.7
203.2 1.7 16.4 0.9 186.8 1.7 12.1 8.5 50.8 1.8 10.3 26.5 13.9 1.6 1.7 11.8 0.7 26.6 2.4 30.9 1.5 20.6 1.7 5.2 0.2 1.0 -1.0 26.2 -0.6
206.2 1.5 16.4 -0.2 189.9 1.7 13.3 9.8 51.4 1.1 10.5 26.3 14.4 1.6 1.7 11.8 0.1 27.4 2.9 31.2 1.2 20.6 0.4 5.3 0.6 1.0 -1.4 26.3 0.4
208.8 1.3 16.3 -0.3 192.5 1.4 14.4 8.6 51.9 1.0 10.7 25.9 14.8 1.7 0.5 11.8 -0.3 27.8 1.7 31.5 0.8 20.7 0.3 5.3 0.4 1.0 -1.5 26.6 0.9
617.0 1.0 272.0 0.6 10.0 1445.0 1392.7 52
623.9 1.1 273.5 0.6 8.2 1924.7 1892.2 32
630.0 1.0 276.5 1.1 7.0 2606.3 2592.5 14
635.6 0.9 284.5 2.9 6.5 3478.8 3252.5 226
642.0 1.0 291.2 2.4 6.6 4430.7 3650.8 780
649.7 1.2 296.9 1.9 6.6 5171.8 4233.1 939
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
48
599.4 0.7 273.0 -0.1 11.1 1203.3 1190.1 13
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
604.5 0.9 277.0 1.4 12.2 1223.5 1168.5 55
610.9 1.1 270.5 -2.3 11.6 1114.4 1058.9 55
L akelan d
Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
23.9 4.8 8.8 15.1
24.2 4.7 8.9 15.3
24.4 3.7 9 15.4
24.6 3.9 9.1 15.5
24.9 4 9.2 15.6
25.2 4.2 9.3 15.9
25.5 4.6 9.4 16
25.8 5 9.6 16.2
26.2 5.3 9.7 16.5
26.6 5.5 9.8 16.7
26.9 5.6 9.9 17
27.2 5.6 10.1 17.2
27.6 5.3 10.2 17.4
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
21.9 3.5
22.1 3.6
22.2 2.8
22.3 2.9
22.5 2.7
22.7 2.8
22.9 3.2
23.1 3.6
23.4 3.9
23.6 3.9
23.8 3.9
24 3.8
24.2 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
37.8 34.6
38.1 34.9
38.4 35
38.6 35
39 35.3
39.4 35.5
39.7 35.7
40.1 35.9
40.6 36.2
41.1 36.5
41.5 36.7
41.8 36.9
42.2 37.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
43.5 3.5
43.8 2.9
44.1 2.6
44.5 2.8
44.8 3
45.2 3.2
45.6 3.4
46 3.5
46.4 3.6
46.9 3.7
47.3 3.8
47.8 3.9
48.3 4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
200.8 1.5
201.7 1.7
202.8 1
203.7 2.1
204.4 1.8
205.1 1.7
205.8 1.5
206.6 1.4
207.5 1.5
208.1 1.4
208.6 1.4
209.1 1.2
209.5 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
16.3 2.3
16.4 1.1
16.4 0.5
16.4 1.2
16.5 0.7
16.4 0.3
16.4 -0.2
16.4 -0.4
16.3 -0.7
16.3 -0.5
16.3 -0.2
16.3 -0.2
16.3 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
184.4 1.4
185.4 1.8
186.4 1
187.3 2.2
188 1.9
188.7 1.8
189.4 1.6
190.3 1.6
191.1 1.7
191.7 1.6
192.3 1.5
192.8 1.3
193.2 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5 4.5
11.7 6.8
11.9 7.5
12.2 11.1
12.5 8.7
12.7 8.9
13.1 9.5
13.5 10
13.8 10.5
14.1 10.4
14.3 9.4
14.5 7.9
14.7 6.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
50.3 3.4
50.5 2.5
50.7 1.4
50.9 1.7
51.1 1.5
51.2 1.3
51.3 1.2
51.4 0.9
51.6 1
51.7 1
51.8 1
51.9 1.1
52.1 1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
10.1 26.4 13.7
10.2 26.5 13.8
10.2 26.5 13.8
10.3 26.5 14
10.3 26.5 14.1
10.4 26.4 14.2
10.5 26.3 14.3
10.5 26.2 14.4
10.6 26.2 14.6
10.7 26 14.7
10.7 25.9 14.8
10.8 25.9 14.9
10.8 25.8 15
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 1.8
1.6 4.8
1.6 1.4
1.6 1
1.6 -0.3
1.6 -1.9
1.6 1.8
1.7 3.6
1.7 3.1
1.7 3.1
1.7 0.6
1.7 -1
1.6 -0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
11.8 0.9
11.8 1
11.8 0.5
11.8 0.8
11.8 0.5
11.8 0.3
11.8 0.1
11.8 -0.1
11.8 0
11.8 0
11.8 -0.1
11.8 -0.3
11.7 -0.9
26 0.4
26.2 2.3
26.5 -0.4
26.7 3.7
27 4
27.1 3.6
27.2 2.9
27.4 2.6
27.6 2.5
27.8 2.3
27.8 2.2
27.8 1.5
27.9 0.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.5 2.1
30.7 1.8
30.9 1.4
30.9 1.5
30.9 1.2
31 1.1
31.2 0.9
31.3 1.1
31.4 1.7
31.4 1.3
31.5 1
31.5 0.7
31.5 0.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.3 1.5
20.5 2.2
20.5 1.7
20.6 1.7
20.6 1.4
20.7 1
20.6 0.5
20.6 0.1
20.6 -0.2
20.6 -0.4
20.7 0.1
20.7 0.5
20.8 0.9
5.2 0.3
5.2 -0.6
5.2 -0.3
5.2 0.8
5.2 0.8
5.3 0.6
5.3 0.6
5.3 0.6
5.3 0.7
5.3 0.7
5.3 0.5
5.3 0.3
5.3 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1 -0.4
1 -1.1
1 -1.2
1 -0.6
1 -1.1
1 -1.2
1 -1.5
1 -1.5
1 -1.6
1 -1.5
1 -1.4
1 -1.5
1 -1.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
26.2 -2.7
26.2 -1.5
26.2 -1.1
26.2 0.2
26.3 0.2
26.3 0.2
26.3 0.3
26.4 0.5
26.4 0.5
26.5 0.7
26.5 0.8
26.6 0.9
26.7 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
632.1 0.9
633.5 0.9
634.9 0.9
636.3 0.9
637.8 0.9
639.4 0.9
641 1
642.8 1
644.7 1.1
646.7 1.2
648.7 1.2
650.8 1.2
652.8 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
279.1 2.6
281.5 3.2
283.7 2.5
285.6 2.9
287.3 2.9
288.9 2.6
290.5 2.4
292 2.2
293.5 2.2
294.9 2.1
296.3 2
297.6 1.9
298.7 1.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
2843 2794 49
3108 3042 66
3359 3200 158
3648 3381 267
3800 3386 414
4036 3441 594
4234 3500 735
4535 3662 873
4918 4000 918
5084 4149 935
5141 4226 915
5231 4280 951
5231 4278 954
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
49
M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.0 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $44,100 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $54,700, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 284,112.33 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,050,995 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 175,106 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •
Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200
Source: The Beacon Council 50
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.7 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 8.7 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.5 percent each year. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES South Florida housing market among least affordable
• South Florida rising house prices are not in conjunction with income. This has made the housing market in this area become one of the least affordable in the country.
• Interest.com, a trusted provider of personal financial advice and subsidiary of North Palm Beach-based Bankrate, looked at housing affordability in the 25 largest metro markets. The results showed that an average resident is earning 26 percent below what it would take to purchase a median-priced home. • South Florida has a median income of $49,946. The median home price in South Florida is $270,000. Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 17, 2014
M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each
Related Group inks $17M apartment deal
• Related Group was involved in the purchase and sale of a $16.75 million apartment complex in northwest Miami-Dade County. • For the deal to press through, a $11.3 million mortgage through Wells Fargo Bank with support from Fannie Mae plus a $3 million loan from Miami-Dade County’s public housing program was secured. • Built in 1999, the apartment complex has 194 units with 466 bedrooms. It totals 169,561 square feet on 8.4 acres.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 26, 2014 Boca Raton firm tops list of fast-growing Florida tech companies • A Boca Raton biotech company ranked as the fastest-growing technology company in Florida
• TherapeuticsMD Inc. (NYSE: TXMD) saw substantial revenue growth of around 3,871 percent 2009 to 2013, according to the 2014 Deloitte Technology Fast 500 which ranks the company at 41st. • In regards to other companies in Florida, Miamibased biotech company OPKO Health (NYSE: OPK) ranked 65th on the list of North American companies, with 2,085 percent growth.
• Financial news website Bankrate (NYSE: RATE) ranked 340th. Miami-based satellite provider Emerging Markets Communications ranked 492nd. The list also included seven other Florida companies.
three years to advertise the state as a destination for medical tourism.
• Not only does the state need to focus on promotion, but in regards to tourism, as Anthony Brinceno, Vice President of Global Health, stated, the success will also come by looking at specialized health care and the patient’s overall experience in traveling to Florida. Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 14, 2014 Badia Spices buys warehouse in Doral after county approves bond
• Badia Spices purchased a warehouse for $10 million for a Doral warehouse to aid in expanding its business with added help from a county-approved bond. • The building that was purchased was acquired in 2012 for $8.5 million.
• The bond approved by the Miami-Dade County was for Badia Spices to purchase the warehouse and add 20 jobs to its current workforce of around 200. • The company relayed to the county that it would need the facility to support their increasing growth in sales and also use some of the funds to make improvements to the warehouse. In 2013 Badia Spices stated that they generated $102 million in revenue. This was an improvement from $89.4 million in 2012. Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 4, 2014
Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 24, 2014 Medical tourism: The next big trend in Florida health care
• Experts at the BioFlorida annual conference in Ft. Lauderdale said patients traveling to secure an exceptional quality and/or lower cost of health care are spearheading the future of the Florida healthcare industry. • Florida has pledged $5 million during the next
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
51
M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
0.6
0.8
300000.0
240000.0
4.0%
220000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate
200000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
(Thousands)
2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Miami Real Personal Income
Miami Payroll Employment
52
1.6
Miami Real Gross Metro Product
6.0%
2100.0
1.4
260000.0
8.0%
2600.0
1.2
280000.0
10.0%
2.0%
1
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
224.3 -6.2 106.1 118.2 224.3 -6.2 40.7 40.7 47.7 0.4
232.3 3.6 107.0 125.3 228.5 1.9 41.5 40.8 48.4 1.5
247.1 6.4 110.9 136.3 237.3 3.8 43.4 41.7 49.3 1.8
255.1 3.2 115.8 139.3 240.5 1.3 44.2 41.7 50.3 2.1
261.3 2.4 120.0 141.3 243.4 1.2 44.8 41.7 50.8 1.0
274.0 4.9 126.9 147.2 251.9 3.5 46.4 42.7 52.2 2.8
286.1 4.4 133.4 152.7 260.2 3.3 47.9 43.5 53.7 2.8
300.4 5.0 140.3 160.1 269.6 3.6 49.6 44.5 55.4 3.3
317.4 5.7 147.9 169.5 280.4 4.0 51.8 45.7 57.5 3.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2212.0 2195.0 2234.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -0.8 1.8 Manufacturing 80.5 76.0 76.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.8 -5.6 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 2131.5 2119.0 2158.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 -0.6 1.9 Construction & Mining 102.9 89.0 85.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.0 -13.5 -3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 505.8 505.0 520.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -0.2 3.1 Wholesale Trade 135.5 132.7 134.5 Retail Trade 281.2 284.0 294.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 89.1 88.4 91.0 Information 44.9 43.6 44.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.6 -3.0 1.2 Financial Activities 156.3 153.3 156.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 -1.9 2.0 Prof & Business Services 322.2 325.8 339.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.9 1.1 4.2 Educ & Health Services 330.6 335.7 341.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.5 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 248.2 252.2 262.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 1.6 3.9 Other Services 102.0 101.7 103.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -0.3 2.2 Federal Government 34.1 36.7 34.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 7.6 -6.9 State & Local Government 284.5 276.0 271.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -3.0 -1.8
2287.4 2.4 77.1 0.9 2210.3 2.4 87.1 1.7 537.2 3.2 139.2 303.8 94.3 45.2 2.5 161.4 3.2 353.1 4.0 341.8 0.2 275.7 5.2 108.6 4.5 33.8 -1.0 266.4 -1.7
2349.3 2.7 77.6 0.7 2271.7 2.8 93.7 7.6 550.0 2.4 140.4 312.7 96.9 46.1 1.9 165.0 2.2 371.2 5.1 346.5 1.4 286.3 3.8 111.4 2.6 33.5 -0.8 267.9 0.6
2415.7 2.8 79.2 2.0 2336.5 2.9 101.0 7.8 568.1 3.3 142.1 325.5 100.4 46.8 1.5 168.1 1.9 385.4 3.8 353.2 1.9 295.6 3.3 115.3 3.5 32.8 -2.2 270.2 0.8
2472.5 2.4 79.9 0.9 2392.7 2.4 109.9 8.8 581.0 2.3 144.4 331.9 103.6 47.2 0.9 170.0 1.2 400.6 3.9 360.9 2.2 302.9 2.5 117.0 1.4 32.5 -0.8 270.6 0.2
2517.8 1.8 79.4 -0.6 2438.4 1.9 119.8 9.0 588.7 1.3 147.7 331.3 107.8 47.8 1.1 170.6 0.3 415.2 3.7 368.3 2.0 306.0 1.0 118.2 1.0 32.2 -1.0 271.8 0.4
2557.2 1.6 78.7 -0.9 2478.6 1.6 131.1 9.4 595.5 1.2 150.9 329.2 111.8 47.9 0.3 170.6 0.0 426.1 2.6 372.7 1.2 308.9 1.0 119.3 1.0 31.8 -1.1 274.7 1.0
5770.7 1.3 2948.5 1.8 8.7 11447.0 5271.8 6175
5836.5 1.1 2969.1 0.7 7.4 17224.9 6257.6 10967
5903.3 1.1 3016.1 1.6 6.1 15533.0 6406.3 9127
5975.9 1.2 3086.4 2.3 5.6 22656.2 11076.6 11580
6051.8 1.3 3146.0 1.9 5.6 29696.0 15053.8 14642
6131.5 1.3 3200.7 1.7 5.6 33703.4 18451.5 15252
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5515.6 1.0 2798.7 -2.5 10.3 3473.1 2217.1 1256
5594.4 1.4 2836.4 1.3 11.2 5026.6 3266.8 1760
5695.4 1.8 2895.4 2.1 10.3 7290.0 4124.7 3165
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
53
M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each
Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
278.8 5.4 129.1 149.7
282 5.1 130.9 151.1
284.6 4.2 132.6 152
287.3 4.1 134.2 153.1
290.5 4.2 135.9 154.6
294.7 4.5 137.6 157.1
298.2 4.8 139.4 158.8
302.2 5.2 141.2 161
306.5 5.5 143.1 163.4
311.2 5.6 145 166.2
315.4 5.8 146.9 168.5
319.5 5.7 148.9 170.6
323.6 5.6 150.8 172.8
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
255.4 4
257.9 3.9
259.3 3.3
260.7 3.1
262.8 2.9
265.9 3.1
268.2 3.4
270.7 3.8
273.6 4.1
276.8 4.1
279.1 4.1
281.6 4
284.1 3.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
47 43.1
47.4 43.4
47.7 43.5
48 43.6
48.4 43.8
48.9 44.1
49.4 44.4
49.9 44.7
50.4 45
51 45.4
51.5 45.6
52 45.8
52.5 46.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
52.7 3.2
53.1 2.7
53.4 2.5
53.8 2.8
54.3 3.1
54.7 3.1
55.2 3.3
55.7 3.4
56.2 3.5
56.7 3.6
57.2 3.7
57.8 3.9
58.4 4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2437.5 2.7
2453 2.6
2467 2.3
2479.9 2.3
2490.2 2.2
2500.7 1.9
2511.7 1.8
2523 1.7
2535.8 1.8
2544.5 1.8
2553.6 1.7
2561.4 1.5
2569.5 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
79.6 1.6
79.7 0.9
79.9 1.2
79.9 1
80 0.4
79.8 0.1
79.4 -0.5
79.2 -0.9
79 -1.2
78.9 -1.1
78.8 -0.8
78.6 -0.7
78.4 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2357.9 2.7
2373.3 2.6
2387.2 2.4
2400 2.4
2410.2 2.2
2420.9 2
2432.2 1.9
2443.8 1.8
2456.8 1.9
2465.6 1.8
2474.8 1.7
2482.8 1.6
2491.1 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
103.9 7.2
106.1 8.8
108.6 8
111.3 9.1
113.4 9.2
115.8 9.1
118.3 8.9
120.8 8.6
124.1 9.4
126.8 9.6
129.7 9.6
132.5 9.6
135.3 9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
574.5 3.4
577 2.6
579.6 2.5
582.8 2.2
584.7 1.8
586.1 1.6
587.6 1.4
589.4 1.1
591.6 1.2
592.8 1.1
594.6 1.2
596.4 1.2
598.3 1.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
142.2 329.6 102.1
143 330.9 102.3
143.8 331.7 102.9
144.9 332.6 104
145.7 332.5 105.1
146.3 332.1 106.1
147.2 331.4 107.2
148 331 108.3
149 330.7 109.4
149.7 329.7 110.5
150.5 329.4 111.3
151.3 329 112.2
152.2 328.8 113
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
47.2 1.7
47.9 3.2
47.2 1
47 0.6
46.8 -1
46.8 -2.4
47.9 1.3
48.4 3.1
48 2.6
48 2.6
48 0.3
47.9 -1.1
47.7 -0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
169.1 1.8
169.9 2.3
170 1.1
170.1 0.8
170 0.5
170.3 0.2
170.4 0.3
170.5 0.2
170.9 0.5
171.1 0.4
171 0.3
170.4 0
169.7 -0.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
390.6 4.4
394.4 3.6
398.7 3.9
402.6 4.1
406.5 4.1
409.6 3.8
412.8 3.6
417.1 3.6
421.5 3.7
424.1 3.6
425.7 3.1
426.6 2.3
427.9 1.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
354.8 1.5
357.3 1.7
361 2.3
362.4 2.4
363 2.3
365 2.2
367.7 1.9
369.1 1.8
371.2 2.2
371.7 1.8
372.6 1.3
373.1 1.1
373.4 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
298.5 2.9
300.8 3.3
302.1 2.1
303.6 2.4
305.1 2.2
306.1 1.8
305.7 1.2
305.9 0.8
306.3 0.4
306.9 0.2
308 0.8
309.6 1.2
311.2 1.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
116.2 2.7
116.6 2.2
116.8 1.6
117.1 1
117.4 1
117.7 0.9
118 1
118.3 1
118.6 1.1
118.9 1
119.2 1
119.4 1
119.7 0.9
32.6 -2.2
32.6 -1.2
32.5 -1
32.5 -0.3
32.4 -0.8
32.3 -0.8
32.2 -1.1
32.1 -1.1
32 -1.1
32 -1.1
31.9 -1
31.8 -1.1
31.6 -1.3
270.5 0.3
270.5 0.4
270.5 -0.1
270.6 0.1
270.9 0.2
271.1 0.2
271.6 0.4
272.1 0.5
272.6 0.6
273.4 0.8
274.2 1
275.1 1.1
276.1 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
5929 1.2
5947.7 1.2
5966.5 1.2
5985.4 1.3
6004.2 1.3
6023.2 1.3
6042.1 1.3
6061.3 1.3
6080.7 1.3
6100.8 1.3
6121.3 1.3
6141.7 1.3
6162.3 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3042 2.8
3061.6 2.6
3079.8 2.3
3095 2.2
3109.3 2.2
3123.9 2
3138.4 1.9
3153.4 1.9
3168.1 1.9
3181.7 1.8
3195 1.8
3207.3 1.7
3218.9 1.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
54
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
16937 7834 9104
19089 9300 9789
21813 10541 11272
23858 11872 11986
25864 12593 13271
27879 13444 14435
28806 14259 14547
29912 15415 14497
32187 17097 15091
33111 17947 15163
33233 18365 14868
34083 18681 15402
34386 18812 15574
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
N aples - M a r co I slan d
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.
The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in most of the economic indicators. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.0 percent. Real per capita income level, which is expected to average $59,300, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $51,300. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent. Population growth will average 2.4 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product level will be an average of 15,934.43 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 161,348 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,237 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.
• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110
The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 8.9 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector and Other Services sector follow with average growth rates of 4.2 and 4.0 percent respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.
• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900
First steps taken in construction of Golisano Children’s Hospital
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110
• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Publix – 800
• Marriott – 700
• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550
Source: Collier Business & Economic Development
• The first phase in the production of the $200-million Golisano Children’s Hospital, south of Fort Myers, is complete. • From a financial viewpoint, the hospital foundation has $18 million left to raise toward a goal of raising $100 million, with the hospital system helping to finance the rest of the cost.
• The current Golisano hospital inside HealthPark currently has 98 beds. The new Golisano tower with seven stories will boast 128 beds and room to expand to 160 beds. The tower will encompass 300,000 square feet of space and will have the latest medical technology along with children and family-friendly features. The new Golisano hospital is scheduled to open in April 2017. Source: Naples Daily News, November 14, 2014
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
55
N aples - M a r co I slan d
Commission to vote on $2.5M Collier accelerator
• Collier County commissioners will vote whether or not to approve the conditions of a $2.5 million state grant to launch two business accelerators in the county. • $2.5 million in grant money from the state has been put on the table, however not without strings attached. In the event that the accelerators do not meet certain conditions the county would have to return the $2.5 million grant to the state. • The objective of these accelerators is to bring global and national companies to Florida, produce high caliber jobs, and help local businesses and entrepreneurs.
• It is estimated that Collier County will need to provide $1.3 million in public funds for the project, incorporating $500,000 of the amount from the public funds in 2015. It is also expected that there will be some contributions from the public sector. Source: Naples Daily News, November 17, 2014 Grace Place breaks ground on expansion
• For disadvantaged children and families in Golden Gate city, the first phase of a campus expansion and infrastructure renovation at Grace Place for Children and Families is headed for completion in fall 2015.
• A large proportion of this community is said to be economically disadvantaged, with around 63 percent of elementary children reading below their grade level and a small proportion of adults having less than ninth grade education. The renovation will include a computer labs, a hospitality center, a nursery, a food pantry and playground.
• At the center of the 16,000-square-foot, $5.7 million expansion is a two-story classroom building at The Van Domelen Education Center, named after principal donors William and Julia Van Domelen. Source: Naples Daily News, November 17, 2014
56
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Seasonal hiring drives Collier, Lee unemployment rates down
• The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity reported that Collier and Lee counties saw noteworthy drops in their unemployment rates in October due to hiring for the winter holiday season. • The two counties had 5.7 percent unemployment in October, which had fallen from 6.3 percent in Collier in September and 6.1 percent in Lee. • Collier saw a noticeable jump in its labor force as more people become engaged in the workforce, adding 2,696 workers in October.
• The increase in jobs was most prevalent in the leisure and hospitality industry, which added over 2,000 positions in Collier County in October. Source: Naples Daily News, November 21, 2014
N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
0.8
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
18000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
14000.0 12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate
(Thousands)
130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0
1.2
Naples Real Gross Metro Product
10000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Naples Payroll Employment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Naples Real Personal Income
Naples Payroll Employment 140.0
1
16000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
57
N aples - M a r co I slan d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
17.5 -13.6 5.0 12.5 17.5 -13.6 54.9 54.9 45.0 -1.4
18.3 4.4 5.1 13.2 18.0 2.6 56.6 55.7 45.8 1.6
19.5 6.8 5.3 14.2 18.8 4.3 59.5 57.1 45.9 0.4
20.1 2.9 5.6 14.5 19.0 1.1 60.3 56.8 46.5 1.3
20.6 2.6 5.8 14.8 19.2 1.4 60.6 56.4 47.0 1.0
21.8 5.6 6.2 15.5 20.0 4.2 62.7 57.6 48.7 3.5
22.9 5.2 6.6 16.3 20.8 4.0 64.4 58.6 50.3 3.3
24.3 6.1 7.1 17.2 21.8 4.7 66.6 59.8 52.0 3.5
26.0 7.0 7.5 18.5 23.0 5.3 69.4 61.3 54.1 4.0
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 111.3 111.2 114.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.4 -0.1 3.3 Manufacturing 2.6 2.4 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.2 -6.7 1.4 Nonmanufacturing 108.6 108.8 112.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.3 0.1 3.4 Construction & Mining 10.4 9.1 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -27.9 -12.9 -1.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.1 21.3 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 0.9 4.0 Wholesale Trade 2.8 2.8 2.9 Retail Trade 16.9 17.0 17.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.5 1.4 Information 1.6 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.9 -4.1 -4.8 Financial Activities 6.6 6.5 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.8 -1.0 -1.0 Prof & Business Services 10.5 11.1 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 5.8 9.3 Educ & Health Services 16.6 17.1 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 3.0 4.7 Leisure & Hospitality 21.0 21.3 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 1.6 5.9 Other Services 7.2 7.3 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 0.8 -0.2 Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 14.7 -10.6 State & Local Government 12.9 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.6 0.3
118.7 3.3 2.7 8.1 116.0 3.2 9.4 4.5 22.8 2.6 3.0 18.4 1.4 1.4 -2.2 6.7 4.3 13.3 9.8 18.0 0.4 23.6 4.4 7.5 2.5 0.6 -7.3 12.7 -0.2
123.4 4.0 3.1 14.1 120.4 3.7 10.5 11.6 24.0 5.6 3.4 19.2 1.4 1.5 4.2 7.0 4.0 13.6 2.2 18.3 1.7 24.5 4.2 7.9 6.2 0.6 -7.4 12.4 -2.7
127.7 3.4 3.3 6.9 124.4 3.4 11.5 9.9 24.7 2.6 3.7 19.5 1.5 1.5 -0.5 7.2 2.3 14.4 5.4 18.5 0.9 25.3 3.1 8.4 6.8 0.6 -0.2 12.4 0.2
131.2 2.7 3.4 3.2 127.8 2.7 12.2 6.4 25.1 1.9 3.8 19.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 7.3 2.0 15.1 4.9 18.8 1.9 25.9 2.1 8.8 4.1 0.6 1.6 12.5 0.7
135.1 3.0 3.4 -0.3 131.7 3.0 13.5 10.4 25.7 2.1 4.0 20.0 1.6 1.6 3.1 7.4 1.8 15.6 3.6 19.3 2.7 26.2 1.4 9.0 2.7 0.6 0.2 12.7 1.9
138.6 2.6 3.4 -0.1 135.3 2.7 14.7 8.8 26.2 2.0 4.2 20.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 7.5 1.4 16.0 2.7 19.8 2.3 26.6 1.3 9.3 2.5 0.6 0.2 13.0 2.4
333.6 1.6 152.8 3.1 8.5 1476.8 1275.7 201
340.5 2.1 155.5 1.8 6.9 2307.9 1671.9 636
347.4 2.0 161.0 3.5 5.7 3141.0 2477.1 664
355.4 2.3 167.2 3.9 5.7 3976.4 2615.3 1361
365.0 2.7 174.2 4.2 6.2 4401.1 2309.0 2092
375.0 2.8 181.0 3.9 6.5 4819.0 2611.8 2207
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
58
319.1 0.7 143.3 -3.3 11.0 832.8 633.5 199
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
323.1 1.2 145.0 1.2 11.6 1194.3 803.9 390
328.3 1.6 148.1 2.2 10.2 1210.8 922.6 288
N aples - M a r co I slan d
Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
22.2 5.7 6.4 15.8
22.5 5.6 6.5 16
22.8 5 6.6 16.2
23 4.9 6.7 16.3
23.3 5.1 6.8 16.6
23.7 5.4 6.9 16.8
24.1 5.9 7 17.1
24.5 6.4 7.1 17.4
24.9 6.8 7.2 17.7
25.4 7 7.3 18
25.8 7.2 7.5 18.3
26.2 7.1 7.6 18.6
26.6 6.9 7.7 18.9
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
20.3 4.4
20.6 4.4
20.7 4.1
20.9 3.8
21.1 3.8
21.4 4
21.7 4.5
21.9 5.1
22.3 5.4
22.6 5.5
22.8 5.5
23.1 5.4
23.4 5.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
63.4 58.1
63.9 58.4
64.2 58.5
64.6 58.6
65.1 58.9
65.7 59.3
66.2 59.6
66.9 59.9
67.6 60.3
68.4 60.8
69.1 61.1
69.7 61.4
70.3 61.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
49.4 4.7
49.7 3.6
50.1 3.5
50.4 3.1
50.9 3
51.3 3.2
51.8 3.4
52.3 3.7
52.8 3.7
53.3 3.9
53.8 3.9
54.4 4
54.9 4.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
128.3 1.1
129.5 1.5
130.7 2.6
131.8 3.4
132.7 3.4
133.6 3.2
134.5 2.9
135.6 2.8
136.6 2.9
137.4 2.8
138.2 2.8
139.1 2.6
139.9 2.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 6
3.4 5.3
3.4 5.5
3.4 1.4
3.4 0.8
3.4 0.2
3.4 -0.3
3.4 -0.4
3.4 -0.7
3.4 -0.4
3.4 -0.1
3.4 0
3.4 0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
125 1
126.1 1.4
127.3 2.5
128.5 3.5
129.3 3.5
130.2 3.3
131.2 3
132.2 2.9
133.2 3
134 2.9
134.9 2.8
135.7 2.7
136.5 2.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5 3.9
11.8 2.9
12.1 3.9
12.4 8.3
12.7 10.5
13 10.5
13.3 10.4
13.7 10.4
14 10.4
14.3 10.3
14.6 9.4
14.8 8.2
15.1 7.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
24.6 -0.6
24.9 0
25 1.4
25.2 3.4
25.4 2.9
25.5 2.5
25.6 2.1
25.7 1.8
25.8 1.9
26 1.9
26.1 2
26.2 2
26.4 2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.7 19.4 1.5
3.8 19.5 1.5
3.8 19.7 1.5
3.9 19.8 1.5
3.9 19.8 1.5
3.9 19.9 1.6
4 19.9 1.6
4 20 1.6
4.1 20 1.6
4.1 20 1.6
4.1 20.1 1.6
4.2 20.1 1.7
4.2 20.2 1.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5 -1.5
1.5 0.6
1.5 0.4
1.5 2.2
1.5 0.9
1.5 -0.5
1.6 3.2
1.6 5.1
1.6 4.6
1.6 4.6
1.6 2.1
1.6 0.5
1.6 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.2 0.5
7.2 0.9
7.3 2.4
7.3 2.4
7.4 2.2
7.4 2
7.4 1.8
7.4 1.6
7.5 1.8
7.5 1.7
7.5 1.7
7.6 1.5
7.5 0.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
14.6 4.2
14.8 4.6
15 6
15.2 4.3
15.3 4.7
15.4 4.3
15.5 3.6
15.7 3.4
15.8 3.3
15.9 3.2
16 3.2
16.1 2.5
16.1 1.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.5 -0.6
18.6 0.4
18.8 1.6
18.9 3
19 2.7
19.1 2.6
19.3 2.4
19.4 2.6
19.6 3.2
19.6 2.8
19.8 2.5
19.8 2.1
19.9 1.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
25.4 -0.1
25.6 0.9
25.8 2.2
25.9 2.8
26.1 2.5
26.2 2.1
26.2 1.6
26.2 1.2
26.3 0.9
26.4 0.7
26.5 1.2
26.6 1.6
26.8 1.9
8.6 5.6
8.7 5.8
8.8 4.9
8.8 2.8
8.9 2.9
8.9 2.6
9 2.7
9.1 2.7
9.1 2.9
9.2 2.8
9.2 2.6
9.3 2.4
9.3 2.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6 -0.7
0.6 1.5
0.6 3.4
0.6 1
0.6 0.5
0.6 0.4
0.6 0.2
0.6 0.1
0.6 0.1
0.6 0.2
0.6 0.3
0.6 0.1
0.6 0
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
12.3 -0.1
12.4 -0.6
12.4 0.1
12.5 1.6
12.5 1.7
12.6 1.7
12.7 1.8
12.7 2
12.8 2
12.9 2.2
13 2.3
13 2.4
13.1 2.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
350.2 2.1
352.1 2.1
354.2 2.2
356.4 2.3
358.8 2.5
361.2 2.6
363.7 2.7
366.2 2.7
368.8 2.8
371.2 2.8
373.7 2.8
376.3 2.7
378.8 2.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
162.3 3.3
164.4 2.9
166.4 3.1
168.2 4.7
169.9 4.7
171.6 4.4
173.4 4.2
175.1 4.1
176.8 4
178.5 4
180.2 3.9
181.8 3.8
183.4 3.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.8
6
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
3484 2666 818
3680 2707 974
3918 2661 1257
4100 2629 1471
4208 2465 1743
4323 2347 1976
4307 2247 2060
4336 2214 2122
4638 2428 2210
4739 2529 2210
4750 2595 2156
4875 2649 2227
4911 2674 2236
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
59
O cala
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.
The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.3 percent annually, the fourth highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $32,700. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $41,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent, the highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 2.0 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,727.44 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 131,724 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 6.9% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,124 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Marion County School Board – 6,071
• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370
• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488
• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000
• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership
60
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 7.1 percent, the highest of the researched areas.
The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 8.6 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 4.0 percent average annual growth. Growth in the Information, Manufacturing, and Financial Activities sectors will be -0.8 percent, -0.1 percent, and -0.2 percent, respectively.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Marion jobless rate is 6.9 in October • The unemployment rate for Marion County fell to 6.9 percent in October, down from 7.7 percent in October 2013. • Data released by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity shows Marion County’s jobless rolls shrank year over year by 1,018 to 9,124, while its labor force grew by 346 to 131,724. • Rusty Skinner, CEO for CareerSource Citrus Levy Marion, noted the 6.9 percent mark for the three-county region his workforce development board serves, the lowest since April’s 6.7 percent. In October, Levy County’s jobless rate was 6.5 percent and Citrus County’s was 7.1. • The Ocala metro area has definitely had the dubious distinction of being among the few in the state to post year-over-year job losses in non-farm
O cala
unemployment, losing 1,000 jobs, a decrease of 1.1 percent. Job sectors in Marion showing year-overyear gains included manufacturing and education and health services. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 21, 2014 Hospital trustees give CHS new deadline • Marion County Hospital District trustees have reaffirmed their prior choice not to advertise a plan to enhance Munroe Regional Medical Center arranged by the health care company that now rents the hospital. • The trustees have composed a letter to Community Health Systems complaining that the organization’s “quickly put-together” change plan does not meet the district’s desires and would not be affirmed. The arrangement is a lease requirement, and the trustees need a worthy form by Dec. 31. • The trustees’ executive director, Jon Kurtz, asked CHS to voluntarily provide a version of the new plan to the public that omits some details that competitors might use to their advantage. • The lease requires CHS to make $150 million in hospital improvements amid the first five years. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 28, 2014 Lockheed Martin booming • During past five years, Lockheed Martin’s Ocala plant has overturned the general trend among defense contractors. A report in August by Politico.com, on what was called “the incredible shrinking defense industry,” shows that contractors like Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and Boeing’s Defense Unit cut between 14 percent and 17 percent of jobs since 2008. Lockheed Martin cut employment 21 percent in that time frame. • But the story at the Missile and Fire Control plant in Silver Springs Shores is rather different, Lockheed Martin officials say, due to improvements in employment. • The plant has doubled their headcount in the last five years, from right at 450 to over 900, which is at a stable mark all through 2014. They plan on holding that number at least through 2016.
• Along with the job gains, Lockheed Martin has made “millions of dollars’ worth” of capital investments in the Ocala plant, according to Johnson. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 22, 2014 It’s a ($94M) hit • “Horse Shows in the Sun” Marion County, more commonly known as HITS Ocala, boosted the local economy by $94 million. • The Sport Management Research Institute, a statistical surveying consulting firm based in Southern California, led the late study. • The studies showed that the total economic impact to Marion County from the event was $94,035,933, which directly created almost 850 jobs and indirectly created another 82 jobs. More than 85 percent of visitors said they plan to visit Marion County again in the coming year. Almost 20 percent of visitors surveyed said they have bought real estate in Marion County. • Included in the economic impact, visitors booked more than 84,000 room nights at hotels, rented apartments, timeshares and RV campgrounds. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 10, 2014 Local drivers, businesses get a boost from lower gas prices • Gas prices peaked to around $3.70 a gallon this year in Florida. Since then the price has fallen by about $1. • Lower gas prices means that consumers don’t have to fill their tanks up so frequently, which would create more disposable income. • Business owners are also enjoying lower prices, as it helps to cut down their operating costs. This will allow businesses to keep more employees on staff and will aid businesses in putting extra funds away for redevelopment. • However, although businesses are enjoying this boost, experience has taught them that it may not last. There may be expectations that price will rise again as demand increases, leading to supplies being eventually cut down. Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 10, 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
61
O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
0.8
1.6
1.8
2
8500.0
(Millions 2000 $)
8000.0
6500.0 6000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate
(Thousands)
100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0
62
1.4
7000.0
105.0
80.0
1.2
Ocala Real Gross Metro Product
5500.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Ocala Real Personal Income
Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0
1
7500.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
O cala
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10.2 -3.2 3.4 6.9 10.2 -3.1 30.9 30.9 36.1 0.3
10.7 4.5 3.3 7.4 10.5 2.8 32.2 31.7 36.4 0.9
11.6 8.2 3.4 8.2 11.1 5.6 34.8 33.4 37.1 1.8
11.9 3.1 3.5 8.5 11.3 1.2 35.6 33.5 37.7 1.6
12.2 2.2 3.6 8.6 11.4 1.0 36.1 33.6 38.1 1.1
12.7 4.1 3.6 9.1 11.7 2.7 37.2 34.2 39.3 3.1
13.3 4.7 3.8 9.5 12.1 3.6 38.4 34.9 40.6 3.4
14.0 5.7 4.1 10.0 12.6 4.3 39.9 35.8 42.1 3.7
15.0 6.6 4.3 10.6 13.2 4.9 41.6 36.8 43.9 4.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 92.6 90.3 89.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.6 -2.4 -0.6 Manufacturing 6.7 6.4 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -19.3 -3.8 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 85.9 83.9 83.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -2.3 -0.7 Construction & Mining 7.3 6.3 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.3 -13.7 -9.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.2 19.8 20.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -2.0 2.3 Wholesale Trade 3.5 3.4 3.3 Retail Trade 14.5 14.4 14.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.1 2.3 Information 1.2 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.1 -14.9 0.1 Financial Activities 5.1 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.3 -18.6 0.8 Prof & Business Services 8.3 7.9 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 -4.4 0.3 Educ & Health Services 12.9 13.4 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 4.1 3.0 Leisure & Hospitality 10.0 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 0.9 0.5 Other Services 3.3 3.4 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.3 0.8 -6.1 Federal Government 0.7 0.9 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 27.6 -24.2 State & Local Government 16.9 16.9 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 -3.0
91.0 1.4 6.7 4.6 84.3 1.2 5.4 -5.8 20.9 3.4 3.4 14.9 2.7 0.9 -9.9 4.2 -0.2 8.6 8.3 14.3 3.1 10.4 2.3 2.8 -11.6 0.7 0.0 16.2 -1.3
92.5 1.6 6.9 2.6 85.6 1.6 5.7 7.0 21.5 2.8 3.4 15.1 3.0 0.9 -3.7 4.2 0.0 9.0 4.7 14.3 0.5 10.6 2.5 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.0 15.8 -2.3
92.1 -0.5 7.0 0.7 85.1 -0.6 5.8 0.6 21.8 1.4 3.5 15.1 3.2 0.8 -7.0 4.1 -3.6 9.0 -0.3 14.2 -1.2 10.6 -0.1 2.8 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 15.4 -2.5
93.8 1.9 7.1 1.4 86.8 1.9 6.3 8.6 22.3 1.9 3.5 15.3 3.4 0.8 -0.6 4.0 -0.3 9.4 4.2 14.4 1.4 10.7 1.2 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 15.4 -0.1
96.1 2.4 7.0 -1.0 89.1 2.7 7.0 11.2 22.6 1.6 3.6 15.4 3.5 0.8 2.3 4.1 1.2 9.8 4.9 14.7 2.4 10.9 1.4 2.9 2.1 0.7 -0.3 15.6 1.2
98.3 2.3 6.9 -0.9 91.3 2.5 7.7 10.2 23.0 1.6 3.7 15.4 3.7 0.8 1.2 4.1 0.9 10.2 3.8 15.0 2.0 11.0 1.4 2.9 1.9 0.7 -0.3 15.9 1.8
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
335.4 0.7 133.1 -0.6 10.2 404.3 402.9 1
337.8 0.7 132.3 -0.6 8.3 595.5 577.6 18
341.4 1.1 131.8 -0.4 7.1 792.0 731.5 60
345.9 1.3 132.7 0.6 7.0 1644.5 1516.6 128
352.3 1.8 134.5 1.4 7.4 2502.5 2319.8 183
359.9 2.2 136.9 1.7 7.7 3049.8 2861.7 188
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
331.1 0.3 135.2 -2.2 12.6 408.6 391.1 18
332.1 0.3 134.7 -0.3 13.4 494.1 491.8 2
333.0 0.3 133.9 -0.6 12.1 359.0 356.1 3
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
63
O cala
Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
12.9 4.8 3.7 9.2
13.1 5 3.8 9.3
13.2 4.5 3.8 9.4
13.3 4.5 3.9 9.5
13.5 4.6 3.9 9.6
13.7 5 4 9.8
13.9 5.5 4 9.9
14.1 6 4.1 10
14.4 6.4 4.2 10.2
14.6 6.6 4.2 10.4
14.9 6.8 4.3 10.6
15.1 6.7 4.4 10.7
15.3 6.5 4.4 10.9
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.8 3.5
12 3.8
12 3.6
12.1 3.5
12.2 3.3
12.4 3.6
12.5 4.1
12.7 4.6
12.8 5
13 5
13.2 5
13.3 5
13.4 4.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
37.7 34.5
38 34.8
38.3 34.9
38.5 34.9
38.9 35.2
39.3 35.4
39.6 35.7
40.1 35.9
40.5 36.2
41 36.5
41.4 36.7
41.8 36.9
42.2 37.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
39.9 4.2
40.2 3.6
40.5 3.5
40.8 3.3
41.2 3.2
41.5 3.4
41.9 3.6
42.3 3.8
42.8 3.9
43.2 4
43.6 4
44.1 4.2
44.6 4.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
92.3 -0.6
92.9 0.5
93.5 1.5
94.1 2.9
94.6 2.5
95.2 2.4
95.7 2.3
96.4 2.4
97 2.5
97.5 2.5
98 2.4
98.5 2.2
99 2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
7 2.1
7 2.7
7.1 2.1
7.1 0.7
7.1 0.1
7 -0.3
7 -0.9
7 -1.2
6.9 -1.5
6.9 -1.3
6.9 -0.9
6.9 -0.8
6.9 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
85.3 -0.8
85.9 0.4
86.5 1.5
87.1 3
87.6 2.7
88.1 2.7
88.7 2.6
89.4 2.6
90.1 2.8
90.6 2.8
91.1 2.7
91.6 2.5
92.1 2.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
5.9 1.4
6 4.2
6.2 7.8
6.3 12.6
6.5 9.8
6.6 10.2
6.8 10.9
7.1 11.6
7.3 12.2
7.5 12.2
7.6 11.1
7.7 9.5
7.9 8.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22 0.2
22.1 1.1
22.2 2.1
22.3 2.4
22.4 2.1
22.5 1.9
22.6 1.7
22.7 1.5
22.8 1.6
22.8 1.5
22.9 1.6
23 1.7
23.1 1.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.5 15.1 3.3
3.5 15.2 3.3
3.5 15.3 3.3
3.5 15.3 3.4
3.6 15.4 3.4
3.6 15.4 3.5
3.6 15.4 3.5
3.6 15.4 3.5
3.7 15.4 3.6
3.7 15.4 3.6
3.7 15.4 3.6
3.8 15.4 3.7
3.8 15.4 3.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8 -8.7
0.8 -1.8
0.8 -1.8
0.8 1.4
0.8 0.1
0.8 -1.3
0.8 2.5
0.8 4.3
0.8 3.9
0.8 3.8
0.8 1.3
0.8 -0.4
0.8 0
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4 -4
4 -2.9
4 -1.3
4.1 1.6
4.1 1.4
4.1 1.3
4.1 1.2
4.1 1
4.1 1.2
4.1 1.2
4.1 1.1
4.1 0.9
4.1 0.2
9 0.9
9.1 2.4
9.3 3.2
9.4 5.3
9.6 5.7
9.6 5.5
9.7 4.9
9.9 4.7
10 4.7
10.1 4.5
10.2 4.3
10.2 3.5
10.3 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
14.2 -1.7
14.2 -0.3
14.4 1.3
14.4 2.4
14.5 2.1
14.5 2.2
14.7 2
14.8 2.3
14.9 2.9
14.9 2.5
15 2.2
15 1.9
15.1 1.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
10.6 -1
10.7 -0.1
10.7 0.2
10.8 2.5
10.8 2.3
10.9 1.9
10.9 1.5
10.9 1.1
10.9 0.9
10.9 0.7
11 1.2
11 1.6
11.1 1.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 -0.4
2.8 0
2.8 1
2.8 2
2.9 2
2.9 1.9
2.9 2.1
2.9 2.1
2.9 2.3
2.9 2.3
2.9 2
3 1.8
3 1.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -0.1
0.7 0.2
0.7 0
0.7 0.3
0.7 -0.2
0.7 -0.2
0.7 -0.4
0.7 -0.4
0.7 -0.3
0.7 -0.2
0.7 -0.2
0.7 -0.3
0.7 -0.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
15.3 -1.7
15.4 -1.2
15.4 -0.7
15.4 0.8
15.5 0.8
15.5 1
15.6 1.2
15.6 1.4
15.7 1.5
15.8 1.6
15.8 1.7
15.9 1.9
16 2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
342.8 1.1
343.9 1.2
345.2 1.2
346.5 1.3
348 1.5
349.6 1.6
351.3 1.8
353.1 1.9
355 2
357 2.1
358.9 2.2
360.9 2.2
362.9 2.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
131.4 0
132 -0.1
132.5 0
132.9 1.3
133.3 1.5
133.8 1.4
134.2 1.3
134.8 1.4
135.3 1.5
135.9 1.6
136.5 1.7
137.2 1.8
137.8 1.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
64
6.9
7
7
7
7.1
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.7
1007 919 87
1223 1125 98
1526 1404 122
1816 1680 136
2014 1858 156
2213 2038 176
2376 2196 180
2590 2406 184
2831 2639 191
2956 2765 190
3025 2840 185
3092 2903 189
3127 2938 189
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
O r lan d o – K issimmee
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.
The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.8 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $33,500. Average annual wage growth will be 3.1 percent. The average annual wage will be at a level of $48,300. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.1 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 117,258.12 million dollars, the third highest of the MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.4 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 8.6 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.1 percent, and the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities sector at 2.4 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.
QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •
MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,215,768 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 5.4% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 66,228 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Metro Orlando home sales, median price up in October
• According to Florida Realtors, Orlando-KissimmeeSanford MSA single-family closed home sales were up 22.9 percent in October compared to the year-ago period. The median price increased to $179,000, up 2.4 percent compared to a year ago. • Townhouse and condo sales increased 18.4 percent for the quarter, with median sales prices of $100,000, up 5.3 percent from a year ago.
• Florida’s housing market also reported more closed sales, higher median prices, and rising inventory in October. This is the 35th month in a row that statewide median sales prices rose year-over-year for both single-family and townhouse-condo properties. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 20, 2014
Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
65
O r lan d o – K issimmee
Downtown Orlando’s Lincoln Plaza, C. Fla. Research Park building sell for combined $94.5M
• Raleigh, North Carolina-based Highland properties bought the 253,951-square-foot Lincoln Plaza for $68.3 million ($286.96 per square foot) from 300 South Orange LLC. Highlands now owns 1.5 million square feet of office space in Orlando’s central business district.
• CIO Research Park LP, an entity related Vancouver, B.C.-based City Office REIT Inc., spent $26.5 million ($216.62 per square foot) to buy the 122,333-square-foot Kaplan University building in Central Florida Research Park from RT Ingenuity LLC.
• Office investment sales demonstrate investor interest and bring high-profile attention from other investors willing to spend on Orland-area real estates. These investors may also invest additional dollars into property renovations, creating local construction and vendor opportunities. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 4, 2014 Record Disney World attendance helps boost earnings • More visitors, higher ticket prices, and increased food spending contributed for higher fourth quarter theme-park revenues, although MyMagic+ costs continue to have a negative effect on profit. • For the quarter ending September 27, Walt Disney Co. reported a profit of $1.5 billion, a 7.5 percent increase on revenue of $12.4 billion. For the year profit was $7.5 billion on $48.8 billion in revenue. Fourth-quarter attendance was the highest ever in Walt Disney World history.
• Disney World continued to unveil new additions with the opening of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and the availability of MyMagic+ technology to all resort visitors. Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 6, 2014
66
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Downtown Orlando to get 449 new luxury apartments
• Charleston, South Carolina-based Greystar plans to build a 449-unit, $70 million luxury apartment complex to be named Elan @ Audubon Park. The complex will occupy a vacant 19.5-acre site just south of Audubon Park and northwest of Orlando Fashion Square mall. • The project will bring hundreds of temporary construction jobs to the local community and offer a new, upscale option for people looking to live close to downtown.
• The general contractor for the project is the developer’s related Greystar Development & Construction LP. First tenants are expected to move in fall 2015. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 28, 2014 Orlando awarded 1st, 2nd round games for 2017 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship
• The NCAA announced that Orlando and the Amway Center was awarded the opportunity to host first and second round games for the championship in 2017. • The University of Central Florida, Stetson University, and the Central Florida Sports commission will host tournament games in partnership with the city of Orlando and Orange County.
• Orlando hosted the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship in 1993, 1996, 1999, and 2004 at the Amway Arena, and in 2014 hosted the second- and third-round games at the new Amway Center.
• The 2014 NCAA I Men’s Basketball Division attracted more than 16,000 visitors from across the U.S. and generated $13 million in economic impact. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 17, 2014
O r lan d o – K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
10.0%
0.8
1.4
1.6
1.8
Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 130000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
120000.0
90000.0
4.0%
80000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate
70000.0
(Thousands)
12.0%
1150.0
9.0%
1100.0
6.0%
1050.0
3.0%
1000.0
0.0%
950.0
-3.0%
900.0
-6.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 OrlandoPayroll Employment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Orlando Real Personal Income
Orlando Payroll Employment
850.0
1.2
100000.0
6.0%
1200.0
1
110000.0
8.0%
2.0%
0.6
-9.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
67
O r lan d o – K issimmee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
70.9 -5.0 42.0 28.9 70.9 -4.9 33.5 33.5 41.9 -0.6
73.6 3.8 42.3 31.3 72.4 2.1 34.3 33.8 42.5 1.3
77.6 5.5 43.7 33.9 74.6 2.9 35.6 34.2 43.3 2.0
81.0 4.3 46.2 34.8 76.4 2.5 36.4 34.3 44.6 2.9
83.6 3.2 48.0 35.5 77.9 2.0 36.8 34.3 44.9 0.8
88.4 5.8 51.1 37.3 81.3 4.4 38.2 35.1 46.2 2.8
93.0 5.2 54.0 39.0 84.6 4.1 39.3 35.8 47.4 2.6
98.3 5.7 57.0 41.4 88.3 4.3 40.7 36.5 48.9 3.2
104.7 6.4 60.3 44.3 92.4 4.7 42.4 37.4 50.7 3.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 997.5 992.3 1005.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -0.5 1.3 Manufacturing 38.7 38.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.6 -1.8 0.1 Nonmanufacturing 958.8 954.3 967.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -0.5 1.4 Construction & Mining 54.5 47.7 45.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -25.0 -12.5 -5.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 186.0 186.0 191.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 0.0 3.2 Wholesale Trade 40.4 38.4 38.4 Retail Trade 115.5 117.9 123.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.1 29.7 30.2 Information 24.8 23.8 24.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -4.0 0.9 Financial Activities 65.9 65.1 65.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -1.1 1.1 Prof & Business Services 164.1 161.1 161.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0 -1.8 0.5 Educ & Health Services 118.4 120.8 123.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.0 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 190.1 195.6 203.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 2.9 4.1 Other Services 39.4 38.5 36.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -2.3 -5.1 Federal Government 12.1 12.8 12.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 5.7 -6.0 State & Local Government 103.6 102.9 103.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -0.7 0.2
1031.9 2.6 38.0 -0.1 993.9 2.7 46.2 2.2 198.1 3.2 39.0 128.1 30.9 23.6 -1.7 67.2 2.1 169.3 4.6 128.2 3.7 210.2 3.3 34.8 -4.7 12.3 2.7 104.0 0.9
1065.0 3.2 38.1 0.4 1026.9 3.3 51.1 10.7 203.7 2.8 40.0 132.5 31.2 23.7 0.6 69.6 3.6 175.6 3.7 131.2 2.4 219.2 4.3 35.6 2.3 12.4 0.4 104.7 0.7
1102.8 3.5 39.5 3.6 1063.3 3.5 55.4 8.3 211.5 3.8 41.6 137.5 32.3 24.3 2.2 69.7 0.0 184.7 5.2 133.0 1.3 231.0 5.4 36.3 1.8 12.3 -0.9 105.3 0.6
1135.1 2.9 40.1 1.4 1095.1 3.0 59.9 8.1 216.6 2.4 42.7 140.1 33.3 24.7 1.7 69.9 0.3 193.4 4.7 136.3 2.5 238.8 3.4 37.0 2.1 12.3 0.0 106.2 0.8
1161.0 2.3 40.0 -0.1 1121.0 2.4 64.9 8.5 220.3 1.7 44.0 140.7 34.6 25.2 2.0 70.5 0.9 200.5 3.7 140.1 2.8 242.0 1.4 37.7 1.8 12.2 -0.2 107.5 1.2
1185.6 2.1 39.9 -0.3 1145.7 2.2 71.1 9.5 223.7 1.5 45.3 140.5 35.9 25.5 1.3 70.8 0.5 206.4 2.9 142.9 2.0 245.5 1.4 38.3 1.6 12.2 -0.4 109.4 1.7
2228.7 2.2 1142.6 1.2 8.7 10921.4 7197.1 3724
2273.0 2.0 1161.4 1.6 6.9 14785.4 9338.2 5447
2316.8 1.9 1198.6 3.2 5.8 15671.3 10307.5 5364
2365.5 2.1 1236.1 3.1 5.3 18845.0 12017.3 6828
2416.3 2.1 1268.1 2.6 5.2 19732.5 13102.0 6631
2469.0 2.2 1296.3 2.2 5.2 21480.0 15237.6 6242
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
68
2115.7 1.2 1106.3 -1.1 10.3 4489.7 3763.4 726
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
2144.4 1.4 1116.8 0.9 11.2 4986.6 4409.6 577
2181.3 1.7 1128.8 1.1 10.2 5737.2 4481.1 1256
O r lan d o – K issimmee
Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
90.1 6.2 52.1 38.1
91.4 5.8 52.9 38.5
92.4 4.9 53.6 38.8
93.5 5 54.3 39.2
94.7 5.1 55.1 39.7
96.2 5.3 55.8 40.4
97.5 5.5 56.6 40.9
99 5.9 57.3 41.7
100.6 6.2 58.2 42.4
102.3 6.3 59 43.3
103.9 6.5 59.9 44
105.4 6.4 60.8 44.6
107 6.4 61.7 45.3
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
82.6 4.8
83.6 4.7
84.2 4
84.9 3.9
85.7 3.8
86.8 3.8
87.7 4.1
88.7 4.6
89.8 4.8
91 4.8
91.9 4.8
92.9 4.7
93.9 4.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
38.6 35.4
39 35.6
39.2 35.7
39.4 35.8
39.7 35.9
40.1 36.2
40.5 36.4
40.9 36.6
41.3 36.9
41.8 37.2
42.2 37.3
42.6 37.5
43 37.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
46.5 3.1
46.9 2.5
47.2 2.3
47.5 2.6
47.9 2.9
48.3 3
48.7 3.1
49.1 3.3
49.5 3.4
50 3.6
50.5 3.7
50.9 3.8
51.4 3.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1114.9 3.4
1123.8 3.3
1131.7 2.7
1139.4 2.9
1145.5 2.7
1151.9 2.5
1157.7 2.3
1163.9 2.1
1170.7 2.2
1176.5 2.1
1182.8 2.2
1188.8 2.1
1194.5 2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
39.9 3
39.9 2
40 1.6
40.1 1.2
40.2 0.7
40.1 0.5
40 -0.1
40 -0.3
39.9 -0.6
39.9 -0.5
39.9 -0.2
39.9 -0.1
39.9 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1075 3.4
1083.9 3.3
1091.7 2.8
1099.3 3
1105.4 2.8
1111.8 2.6
1117.7 2.4
1123.9 2.2
1130.7 2.3
1136.6 2.2
1142.9 2.3
1148.9 2.2
1154.6 2.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
56.7 6.8
57.9 7.9
59.2 7.2
60.6 8.3
61.7 8.8
62.8 8.5
64.2 8.3
65.5 8.1
67.2 9
68.7 9.4
70.3 9.6
72 9.9
73.4 9.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
213.5 3.8
214.7 2.9
216 1.9
217.5 2.7
218.4 2.3
219.1 2
219.9 1.8
220.7 1.5
221.7 1.5
222.3 1.5
223.2 1.5
224.1 1.6
225.1 1.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
41.8 138.6 32.8
42.1 139.3 32.8
42.5 139.8 33
42.9 140.5 33.4
43.2 140.7 33.7
43.5 140.7 34.1
43.9 140.6 34.4
44.2 140.6 34.7
44.5 140.7 35.1
44.8 140.5 35.4
45.1 140.5 35.7
45.5 140.5 36
45.8 140.6 36.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
24.5 2.6
24.9 3.7
24.6 1.7
24.5 1.4
24.5 -0.1
24.6 -1.5
25.2 2.2
25.5 4
25.4 3.5
25.5 3.6
25.5 1.3
25.5 -0.2
25.5 0.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
69.3 -2.1
69.7 -0.9
69.8 -0.3
70 1.4
70 1.1
70.3 0.8
70.4 0.9
70.5 0.8
70.8 1
70.9 0.9
71 0.8
70.8 0.4
70.6 -0.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
188.5 6.1
190.3 5.5
192.5 5.1
194.5 4.3
196.3 4.1
197.8 3.9
199.4 3.6
201.4 3.5
203.5 3.7
205.1 3.7
206.1 3.3
206.8 2.7
207.6 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
133.3 1.1
134.6 1.4
136.2 2.4
137 3.2
137.4 3.1
138.5 2.9
139.8 2.7
140.6 2.6
141.6 3
142.1 2.6
142.8 2.1
143.2 1.9
143.7 1.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
234.8 5
236.9 5
238 3.3
239.4 2.7
240.8 2.5
241.9 2.1
241.7 1.5
242 1.1
242.4 0.7
243.1 0.5
244.5 1.2
246.2 1.7
247.9 2.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
36.5 1.7
36.8 1.8
37 2.4
37.1 2.2
37.3 2.1
37.5 2
37.7 1.9
37.8 1.7
37.9 1.7
38.1 1.6
38.3 1.6
38.4 1.6
38.5 1.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
12.3 -0.3
12.3 0
12.3 -0.4
12.3 0.5
12.3 0
12.3 -0.1
12.2 -0.3
12.2 -0.3
12.2 -0.3
12.2 -0.4
12.2 -0.2
12.2 -0.4
12.2 -0.5
105.6 0.8
105.8 0.9
106 0.5
106.3 1
106.7 1
106.9 1.1
107.3 1.2
107.7 1.3
108 1.3
108.5 1.5
109 1.6
109.6 1.8
110.2 2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2334.1 2
2346.5 2
2359 2.1
2371.9 2.1
2384.7 2.2
2397.4 2.2
2410 2.2
2422.5 2.1
2435.2 2.1
2448.8 2.1
2462.3 2.2
2475.7 2.2
2489.1 2.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1213.1 4.2
1222.6 3.9
1232.2 2.8
1240.9 2.9
1248.7 2.9
1256.4 2.8
1264.2 2.6
1272 2.5
1279.8 2.5
1286.7 2.4
1293.4 2.3
1299.6 2.2
1305.6 2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
17223 10885 6338
18022 11546 6476
18833 11897 6937
19226 12364 6862
19299 12263 7036
19482 12372 7109
19281 12566 6715
19511 13167 6344
20657 14303 6354
21112 14863 6249
21278 15179 6099
21712 15418 6294
21818 15490 6328
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
69
P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.9 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $35,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $51,000. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 18,821.29 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 265,026 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 6.3% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,588 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800
• Harris Corporation – 5,890
• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067
• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410
• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280
• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075
• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011
Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.5 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 7.3 percent, the highest of the studied areas. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 7.7 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.1 percent, followed by the Other Services sector at 1.3 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -0.1 percent annually.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Port CEO: Chances good for auto project
• According to John Walsh, Port Canaveral’s chief executive, the port has an extremely high chance (90%) of landing an auto import/export business that would create hundreds of local jobs. • There are two other finalists for the project, which involves “a deal with an auto processor that would work with a major automaker to import cars to an East Coast port for distribution to dealerships in the Southeast.” • Port Canaveral’s plans if it does win the deal include building a six-story, 7,500 vehicle parking garage and a 60,000-square-foot processing facility. This project could cost up to $74 million. • Walsh asserts that 180 to 220 jobs could be created by the project at the port alone, in addition to 50 to 100 trucking jobs.
Source: Florida Today, October 29, 2014 70
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille
Absolutely Abby helps people find jobs
• Abby Kohut (“Absolutely Abby”) has set out to help Americans find jobs. Kohut’s national bus tour included a stop in Brevard for two days of free workshops on November 17 and 18.
• Kohut is so well-known for her articles on AbsolutelyAbby.com that she was named one of the top 100 influential people online by Fast Company Magazine. Her website has also been recognized on Forbes as one of the “Top 1,000 Websites for Your Career.” • According to Kohut, “Things are absolutely getting better, but there are still millions of people who are unemployed and underemployed.”
Source: Florida Today, November 16, 2014 Orbital considers launching ISS cargo from Brevard
• It is possible that some cargo previously launched from Virginia may fly from Florida to the International Space Station while Orbital Sciences Corp’s Antares rocket is being repaired. Orbital is considering two American companies and one European company as potential launchers of Cygnus cargo spacecraft in 2015 and early 2016.
• After the explosion of the unmanned Antares rocket after liftoff from Wallops Island, Va. on October 28th, Orbital needs to complete launches on competitors’ rockets in order to fulfill its $1.9 billion contract with NASA. • After 2016, Orbital will be among several competitors for new cargo contracts. Currently, NASA also has contracts with SpaceX, who launches its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon capsule from Florida. Source: Florida Today, November 5, 2014 Dramatic upswing in Brevard housing market
• There was an over 17 percent increase in the yearover-year number of sales of single-family homes within Brevard County. Home values have also been rising, with the median sales price growing more than 19.2 percent to $143,000. • Real estate firms throughout Brevard have benefited
from this growth through increased profits.
• The current growth in the real estate market is allowing businesses to recover losses that occurred during the Great Recession to the point where many are considering expanding their businesses. Source: Florida Today, November 24, 2014 Space Coast Credit Union’s plan may add 600 jobs
• Space Coast Credit Union wants to expand its Baytree-area corporate office complex (located off Wickham Road) through a project worth $30 million. This plan comes with the potential of creating 600 jobs in the future.
• The plan involves building three additional buildings, each of which would be three stories tall and would total 144,344 square feet in addition to a four-story, 500-vehicle employee parking garage.
• If the project is approved, construction would begin in the first quarter of 2015, starting with the parking garage. The community has concerns about the expansion, but Jake Wise, principal civil engineer of the project, argues that the credit union’s current building simply cannot accommodate additional staff. Source: Florida Today, December 4, 2014 Port Canaveral needs more cruise terminals
• It is estimated that cruise passenger counts will likely grow by more than 100 percent within the next 30 years, which has the potential to put Port Canaveral ahead of its Port of Miami and Port Everglades competitors and make it a world leader. • This growth would not only result in increased revenue from cruise lines, but would also provide more jobs in the Port Canaveral area, as well as increased tourism spending on local hotels, restaurants, retail shops and attractions.
• The expected increase in cruise operations means that Port Canaveral needs to add up to four new cruise terminals over the next 25 years. Doing so could cost as much as a half-billion dollars. The first of the four terminals opens in December 2014. Source: Florida Today, November 23, 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
71
P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
1
1.5
(percent)
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate
20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0
72
(Thousands)
3
(Millions 2000 $)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0
2.5
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product
Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%
2
12.0%
(percent change year ago)
9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
-6.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
20.1 -2.8 9.2 10.9 20.1 -2.7 37.0 37.0 46.0 2.2
20.4 1.5 9.3 11.1 20.0 -0.2 37.4 36.8 46.8 1.7
21.4 5.1 9.3 12.1 20.6 2.6 39.3 37.7 47.3 0.9
21.8 1.8 9.3 12.4 20.5 -0.1 39.8 37.5 47.4 0.2
22.0 0.9 9.4 12.6 20.5 -0.3 39.8 37.1 47.7 0.6
22.7 3.4 9.7 13.0 20.9 2.0 40.8 37.5 48.9 2.7
23.7 4.5 10.2 13.5 21.6 3.4 42.2 38.3 50.4 3.1
25.0 5.5 10.8 14.2 22.5 4.1 44.0 39.5 52.3 3.7
26.6 6.2 11.5 15.1 23.5 4.5 46.1 40.7 54.5 4.2
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 196.4 194.8 194.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -0.8 -0.1 Manufacturing 21.8 20.5 20.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -5.9 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 174.6 174.3 173.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -0.2 -0.3 Construction & Mining 9.9 8.7 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -23.8 -12.5 -5.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.3 33.0 34.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -0.8 4.0 Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.0 5.2 Retail Trade 24.9 24.7 25.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.2 3.3 4.1 Information 2.6 2.4 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 -8.8 -9.0 Financial Activities 7.9 7.6 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -3.5 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 32.3 32.5 31.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 0.7 -2.8 Educ & Health Services 31.2 32.3 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 3.6 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 21.3 21.2 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -0.4 1.6 Other Services 6.9 7.1 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 2.7 2.7 Federal Government 6.3 6.7 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 7.4 -5.3 State & Local Government 22.8 22.6 22.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.8 -2.8
194.6 0.0 20.9 0.7 173.7 -0.1 8.4 3.0 34.9 1.6 5.2 25.5 4.2 2.1 -5.0 7.6 1.3 29.4 -7.0 32.8 0.1 22.7 5.3 7.4 0.9 6.2 -2.1 22.1 0.7
194.2 -0.2 20.1 -3.8 174.1 0.2 9.2 9.0 35.0 0.2 5.5 25.6 3.9 1.9 -6.4 7.6 -0.4 28.7 -2.4 32.9 0.5 22.9 0.8 7.4 0.7 6.2 -0.8 22.3 0.6
194.9 0.4 19.7 -2.1 175.2 0.7 9.8 7.3 35.0 0.1 5.6 26.1 3.3 1.9 -2.3 7.5 -1.2 28.1 -2.0 33.2 1.0 23.6 2.9 7.8 5.2 6.0 -2.8 22.2 -0.3
199.5 2.4 20.1 2.1 179.4 2.4 10.7 9.3 35.5 1.5 5.8 26.4 3.3 1.9 1.3 7.6 1.0 29.2 3.9 33.9 2.0 24.0 1.9 8.1 3.7 6.0 -0.8 22.4 0.7
204.2 2.3 20.6 2.6 183.5 2.3 11.9 10.9 35.9 0.9 6.0 26.3 3.5 2.0 2.2 7.6 0.7 30.8 5.3 34.5 1.8 24.2 0.7 8.2 1.4 5.9 -1.2 22.5 0.8
207.9 1.9 20.9 1.4 187.0 1.9 13.0 9.4 36.1 0.7 6.2 26.1 3.6 2.0 1.1 7.6 0.3 32.0 3.9 35.0 1.4 24.3 0.6 8.3 1.2 5.8 -1.3 22.8 1.2
547.7 0.5 268.2 -0.3 9.3 1111.1 1107.0 4
551.5 0.7 264.0 -1.5 7.9 1346.6 1330.8 16
556.7 0.9 264.5 0.2 6.6 1388.8 1304.2 85
562.6 1.1 268.8 1.6 6.2 2697.1 2200.4 497
569.1 1.1 273.3 1.7 6.3 3947.5 3017.7 930
576.0 1.2 277.8 1.7 6.3 4636.4 3651.6 985
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
542.6 0.1 266.7 -0.7 10.3 975.3 868.7 107
544.5 0.3 267.6 0.3 11.1 1082.6 994.8 88
544.8 0.1 268.9 0.5 10.8 972.7 842.9 130
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
73
P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
23.1 4.3 9.8 13.2
23.3 4.5 10 13.4
23.6 4.3 10.1 13.4
23.8 4.3 10.3 13.5
24.1 4.7 10.4 13.7
24.5 5 10.6 13.9
24.8 5.3 10.7 14.1
25.2 5.7 10.9 14.3
25.6 6 11.1 14.5
26 6.2 11.2 14.8
26.4 6.3 11.4 15
26.8 6.2 11.6 15.2
27.1 5.9 11.7 15.4
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
21.1 3
21.3 3.4
21.5 3.4
21.6 3.3
21.8 3.3
22.1 3.6
22.3 4
22.6 4.4
22.8 4.6
23.1 4.7
23.4 4.6
23.6 4.5
23.8 4.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
41.3 37.8
41.7 38.1
42 38.2
42.3 38.4
42.7 38.6
43.2 39
43.7 39.3
44.2 39.6
44.8 40
45.4 40.4
45.9 40.6
46.4 40.9
46.9 41.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
49.4 3.5
49.8 3
50.2 2.8
50.6 3.1
51.1 3.4
51.6 3.5
52.1 3.7
52.5 3.8
53.1 3.9
53.6 4
54.2 4.1
54.8 4.2
55.4 4.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
196.2 0.8
197.4 1.6
198.9 2.5
200.3 2.7
201.4 2.6
202.5 2.5
203.5 2.3
204.7 2.2
205.9 2.3
206.8 2.2
207.6 2
208.4 1.8
208.9 1.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
19.8 0
19.9 0.6
20 1.8
20.2 3.1
20.4 3
20.5 2.9
20.6 2.7
20.7 2.5
20.8 2.2
20.9 2.2
20.9 1.8
20.9 1.1
20.9 0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
176.4 0.9
177.6 1.7
178.9 2.6
180.1 2.6
181 2.6
182 2.5
182.9 2.3
184 2.2
185.1 2.3
185.9 2.2
186.7 2.1
187.4 1.8
188 1.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.1 7.1
10.3 7.8
10.6 8.5
10.9 10.3
11.1 10.4
11.4 10.5
11.7 10.8
12.1 11
12.4 11.3
12.7 11.2
12.9 10.2
13.1 8.8
13.4 7.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
35.2 0
35.3 0.6
35.5 1.8
35.7 2
35.7 1.6
35.8 1.3
35.8 0.9
35.9 0.6
36 0.7
36 0.6
36.1 0.7
36.1 0.8
36.2 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.6 26.2 3.3
5.7 26.3 3.3
5.7 26.3 3.3
5.8 26.4 3.3
5.8 26.4 3.4
5.9 26.4 3.4
5.9 26.3 3.4
6 26.3 3.5
6 26.2 3.5
6.1 26.1 3.5
6.1 26.1 3.6
6.2 26.1 3.6
6.2 26 3.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 -0.3
1.9 2.2
1.9 2
1.9 1.2
1.9 0
1.9 -1.4
2 2.3
2 4.1
2 3.7
2 3.7
2 1.2
2 -0.4
2 0
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 -0.6
7.5 0.3
7.6 1.1
7.6 1.3
7.6 1.2
7.6 1
7.6 0.8
7.6 0.5
7.6 0.6
7.7 0.6
7.7 0.5
7.7 0.3
7.6 -0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.2 -0.8
28.5 1.4
29 2.9
29.5 5.3
29.9 6
30.3 6.1
30.5 5.3
31 5
31.4 4.8
31.7 4.6
31.9 4.4
32.1 3.7
32.2 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.5 0.9
33.6 1.8
33.9 2.5
34 2
34.1 1.8
34.2 1.8
34.5 1.5
34.6 1.8
34.8 2.3
34.9 1.9
35 1.5
35.1 1.2
35.1 0.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
23.7 2.3
23.9 1.4
24 2.6
24.1 1.9
24.1 1.7
24.2 1.4
24.2 0.9
24.2 0.4
24.2 0.2
24.2 0
24.3 0.4
24.4 0.8
24.5 1.2
8 5.8
8 6.9
8.1 5.3
8.1 1.5
8.1 1.5
8.2 1.4
8.2 1.4
8.2 1.4
8.3 1.6
8.3 1.5
8.3 1.2
8.3 1.1
8.3 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6 -2.2
6 -1.3
6 -0.4
6 -0.5
6 -1
5.9 -1
5.9 -1.2
5.9 -1.3
5.9 -1.3
5.9 -1.2
5.8 -1.2
5.8 -1.3
5.8 -1.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.3 0.1
22.3 0.8
22.4 1
22.4 0.5
22.4 0.5
22.5 0.6
22.5 0.7
22.6 0.9
22.6 0.9
22.7 1
22.8 1.2
22.9 1.3
22.9 1.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
558.7 1
560.3 1
561.8 1
563.4 1.1
565.1 1.1
566.7 1.1
568.3 1.2
569.9 1.2
571.6 1.2
573.3 1.2
575.1 1.2
576.9 1.2
578.7 1.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
265.1 1.3
266.8 1.2
268.2 1.1
269.5 2
270.6 2
271.6 1.8
272.7 1.7
273.9 1.6
275 1.6
276.1 1.7
277.3 1.7
278.4 1.7
279.5 1.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
74
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.3
6.4
1748 1521 228
2117 1833 283
2523 2091 432
2925 2366 559
3224 2512 712
3532 2684 848
3767 2856 910
4073 3113 960
4418 3417 1001
4559 3561 998
4604 3641 963
4688 3698 990
4694 3706 988
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.1 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $34,200. The average annual wage growth rate should be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $45,600. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.6 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 14,776.03 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 215,873 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 5.6% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,123 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Local Government – 13,857
• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253
• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000
• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365
• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231
• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA
Employment growth is expected to average 1.3 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 5.6 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 7.6 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follow with an average growth rate of 2.6 percent. Both the Federal Government and the Manufacturing sectors are expected to experience declines, at -1.6 percent and -1.0 percent, respectively.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Pensacola’s economic future challenging
• Those in attendance at the Gulf Power Economic Symposium learned that Florida technical institutes graduates had higher beginning pay salaries than recently stamped college grads with bachelor’s degrees in recent years.
• The salary for tech school grads in around $3,000 higher than that of normal graduates with bachelor’s degrees, at around $49,422 in 2010-2011. • Florida’s tech school graduates normally start at an annual pay that’s 3.3 times the minimum wage, compared with 3.0 times for those with bachelor’s degrees. Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 14, 2014
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
75
P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent
Navy Federal announces 5,000 new jobs
• Governor Scott announced an additional 5,000 jobs for the Beulah area. Navy Federal now expects to have 10,000 employees in the Pensacola area by 2020.
• At the moment there are 3,800 current employees and 2,000 new jobs which were announced earlier this year. With this growth in mind, authorities are looking at making a requirement for new schools and wider roadways.
• Navy Federal is anticipated to grow to 800,000 members this year according to Navy Federal President and Chief Executive Officer Cutler Dawson. • The Florida Department of Transportation will likewise begin plans in late 2015 and 2016 to expand Nine Mile Road to four paths from Beulah Road to U.S 29. Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 30, 2014 Bayou Chico to enjoy $11M from oil spill fines
• $11 million was given to Escambia County for the Bayou Chico Watershed project. The money came from funds the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation has received from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill fines. • The $11 million grant, one out of nine grants given to the county, will go a long way in the continued efforts to restore water quality in Pensacola Bay and Bayou Chico region. • The grant will also help sort out old problems with pollution and removing debris from the Bayou Chico, as well as provide some upgrades. • The most notable upgrade will be a treatment facility project, which will aim to improve the water treatment for inhabits of the Bayou.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 18, 2014 Old Racquet Club to become $16 million new development • A foreclosed racquet club is set to be reinvented into a $16 million dollar development.
• The project will create a senior living home in a sheltered area to care for those that have some forms of Alzheimer’s and dementia. The development is to be named Summer Vista, will have 89 apartments, and will be placed near the Cordova Mall for ease for the residents.
• The project is much needed according to Pensacola City Councilman Larry B. Johnson, who also happens to be an investor into the project.
• The project is estimated to create 50-60 new jobs for the city. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 19, 2014 Economic incentives draw industry to Santa Rosa
• The Santa Rosa County may see greater development and new occupations in the near future as the Santa Rosa County Economic Development Office continues to solicit and bring new businesses to the area, particularly to the industrial parks. • Though many of the projects are rather vague in their details and pending finalization, the Economic Development Office has met with more than 40 site consultants this year and has at least five dynamic activities underway that could bring new jobs to the region.
• The names of some of the companies have not been published yet, but some of the projects look to bring over 100 jobs to the area, which will do well not only for industry growth but also for the growth for the community. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 16, 2014 The fight for $15 minimum wage
• Protestors met to call for the minimum wage to be raised to $15, what they believe is a reasonable wage that an individual can live on. The minimum wage, which is $7.93 in Florida, is set to rise to $8.05 on Jan. 1.
• Those who want an increase in the minimum wage argue that the increase in wage will lead to an increase in consumer spending, thereby benefitting the economy. • Those against raising the minimum wage point out an increase in the costs of any good or service that involves minimum wage labor will lead businesses that employ workers at the minimum wage starting to cut back on employment, limiting job creation. • The U.S Department of Health and Human Services defines the poverty threshold for a single person as $11,670 a year or $19,790 for a family of three. A fulltime job paying $15 would afford an annual salary of roughly $26,000 after taxes. A person earning $8.05 an hour will take home roughly $14,800 next year. Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 4, 2014
76
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
0.4
0.6
0.8
15500.0
8.0%
14000.0
6.0%
13500.0
(Millions 2000 $)
13000.0
4.0%
12500.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate
12000.0
Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%
(percent change year ago)
6.0%
170.0
4.0%
165.0
2.0%
160.0
0.0%
155.0
-2.0%
150.0 145.0
1.4
15000.0 14500.0
175.0
1.2
Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
2.0%
1
-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Pensacola Payroll Employment
-6.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
77
P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
15.5 -0.9 6.8 8.7 15.5 -0.9 34.6 34.6 40.3 2.8
15.9 2.9 6.9 9.1 15.7 1.2 35.3 34.8 40.3 -0.1
16.9 5.8 7.1 9.8 16.2 3.3 37.0 35.5 41.2 2.4
17.3 2.8 7.3 10.1 16.3 0.9 37.5 35.3 42.1 2.0
17.6 1.5 7.4 10.2 16.4 0.3 37.6 35.1 42.4 0.7
18.2 3.4 7.7 10.5 16.7 2.0 38.7 35.5 43.2 2.0
18.8 3.6 8.0 10.9 17.1 2.5 39.8 36.2 44.1 2.1
19.7 4.3 8.3 11.3 17.6 2.9 41.3 37.0 45.6 3.4
20.6 5.0 8.7 12.0 18.2 3.3 43.0 38.0 47.4 3.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 154.7 156.7 158.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 1.3 1.1 Manufacturing 5.4 5.4 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.7 -0.6 2.7 Nonmanufacturing 149.3 151.3 153.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 1.4 1.1 Construction & Mining 10.6 10.6 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.2 -0.6 -6.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.1 29.4 29.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -2.4 1.3 Wholesale Trade 5.4 5.1 4.9 Retail Trade 20.1 20.2 20.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.6 4.1 4.1 Information 3.0 3.1 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.2 1.7 -12.5 Financial Activities 8.8 8.7 8.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 18.4 19.7 21.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 6.7 7.1 Educ & Health Services 25.7 26.7 27.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 3.9 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 17.6 18.1 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 2.8 6.5 Other Services 6.6 6.1 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.2 -6.8 -5.4 Federal Government 6.5 7.2 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 10.3 -4.7 State & Local Government 21.9 21.8 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -0.3 -0.8
158.6 0.0 5.6 1.2 153.0 0.0 9.4 -4.0 30.0 0.9 4.9 21.1 4.0 2.4 -12.4 9.0 3.4 21.3 1.3 27.0 -1.4 19.7 2.5 5.7 -1.6 6.8 -0.9 21.6 -0.2
160.4 1.2 5.8 4.5 154.6 1.1 9.1 -3.8 30.5 1.4 4.8 21.5 4.1 2.3 -1.8 9.8 8.6 22.0 3.4 26.6 -1.3 20.7 5.0 5.6 -2.0 6.6 -2.5 21.3 -1.0
162.5 1.3 5.9 2.1 156.5 1.3 9.3 1.8 30.8 1.2 4.8 21.9 4.1 2.5 5.5 10.1 3.4 22.2 0.6 26.6 -0.2 21.8 5.1 5.5 -2.8 6.4 -3.4 21.6 1.1
165.8 2.0 6.0 1.5 159.7 2.0 10.1 9.3 31.2 1.1 4.8 22.1 4.1 2.5 2.4 10.2 0.7 23.1 4.2 26.8 0.8 22.4 2.8 5.5 0.2 6.3 -1.3 21.7 0.8
167.7 1.1 6.0 -1.2 161.7 1.2 11.1 10.1 31.2 0.0 4.9 21.9 4.2 2.5 1.2 10.1 -0.3 23.9 3.4 26.9 0.6 22.5 0.5 5.5 0.7 6.2 -2.1 21.7 -0.2
169.1 0.9 5.9 -1.2 163.2 0.9 12.1 9.1 31.1 -0.1 5.0 21.6 4.3 2.5 0.1 10.1 -0.7 24.4 2.2 27.0 0.2 22.6 0.4 5.5 0.5 6.1 -2.1 21.8 0.3
462.6 1.4 211.7 -1.5 8.4 1473.6 1457.2 16
467.3 1.0 211.3 -0.2 7.0 1971.7 1850.7 121
470.3 0.6 213.7 1.1 6.0 1884.2 1604.1 280
473.2 0.6 218.9 2.4 5.6 1988.7 1706.1 283
476.3 0.6 223.2 2.0 5.5 1955.2 1680.4 275
479.5 0.7 226.6 1.5 5.5 2160.8 1914.2 247
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
78
447.2 0.4 207.2 -0.5 9.4 1035.7 954.9 81
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
450.8 0.8 211.4 2.0 10.0 1811.6 1369.0 443
456.2 1.2 215.0 1.7 9.5 1195.1 1194.2 1
P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent
Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
18.4 4 7.7 10.7
18.6 4.1 7.8 10.8
18.8 3.3 7.9 10.8
18.9 3.3 8 10.9
19.1 3.6 8.1 11
19.3 3.8 8.2 11.2
19.5 4.1 8.3 11.3
19.7 4.5 8.3 11.4
20 4.8 8.4 11.6
20.3 5 8.5 11.7
20.5 5.1 8.6 11.9
20.7 5.1 8.7 12
21 4.8 8.8 12.2
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.9 2.6
17 3
17.1 2.4
17.1 2.3
17.3 2.3
17.4 2.4
17.6 2.8
17.7 3.2
17.9 3.4
18 3.5
18.2 3.4
18.3 3.4
18.4 3.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
39.1 35.8
39.4 36
39.7 36.1
39.9 36.2
40.2 36.4
40.7 36.7
41 36.9
41.4 37.1
41.9 37.4
42.4 37.7
42.8 37.9
43.2 38.1
43.6 38.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
43.3 1.9
43.7 1.4
44 1.6
44.3 2.3
44.6 3.1
45.1 3.2
45.5 3.4
45.8 3.5
46.2 3.6
46.7 3.7
47.2 3.7
47.6 3.9
48.1 3.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
164.2 2
164.9 2.8
165.6 2
166.2 1.8
166.5 1.4
166.9 1.3
167.3 1.1
167.9 1
168.4 1.1
168.8 1.1
169.1 1
169.3 0.8
169.4 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6 3.1
6 4
6 1.9
6 0.4
6 -0.1
6 -0.6
6 -1.2
6 -1.4
5.9 -1.7
5.9 -1.5
5.9 -1.1
5.9 -1.1
5.9 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
158.1 2
158.8 2.7
159.5 2.1
160.1 1.9
160.5 1.5
160.9 1.3
161.4 1.2
161.9 1.1
162.5 1.2
162.8 1.2
163.2 1.1
163.4 0.9
163.5 0.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
9.6 5
9.8 6
10 10.4
10.2 12.4
10.4 8.6
10.7 9
11 9.8
11.3 10.4
11.6 11
11.9 11.1
12.1 10
12.2 8.3
12.4 7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
31 0.8
31.1 1.4
31.1 1.2
31.2 1.2
31.2 0.7
31.2 0.4
31.2 0.1
31.1 -0.2
31.2 -0.2
31.1 -0.2
31.1 -0.1
31.1 -0.1
31.1 -0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.8 22.1 4.1
4.8 22.1 4.1
4.8 22.1 4.1
4.9 22.1 4.1
4.9 22.1 4.2
4.9 22 4.2
4.9 21.9 4.2
4.9 21.8 4.2
5 21.8 4.3
5 21.7 4.3
5 21.6 4.3
5 21.5 4.3
5 21.5 4.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 10.8
2.5 6.8
2.5 3.3
2.5 0.6
2.5 -0.8
2.5 -2.3
2.5 1.4
2.6 3.2
2.6 2.7
2.6 2.7
2.6 0.2
2.5 -1.3
2.5 -1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10.1 1.4
10.2 1.5
10.2 0.8
10.2 0.4
10.2 0.2
10.2 0
10.1 -0.2
10.1 -0.5
10.1 -0.3
10.1 -0.4
10.1 -0.4
10.1 -0.6
10 -1.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.5 1.7
22.7 4.4
23 4
23.3 4
23.5 4.4
23.6 4.1
23.8 3.4
24 3.1
24.2 3
24.3 2.9
24.4 2.7
24.4 1.9
24.5 1.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
26.6 0.2
26.7 1
26.9 0.9
26.8 0.9
26.8 0.6
26.8 0.5
26.9 0.3
27 0.5
27.1 1
27 0.7
27 0.4
27 0.1
27 -0.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 6.2
22.3 5.6
22.3 2.3
22.4 1.8
22.5 1.6
22.5 1.2
22.5 0.6
22.5 0.2
22.5 0
22.5 -0.2
22.5 0.3
22.6 0.7
22.7 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.4 -2.4
5.4 -0.5
5.5 -0.4
5.5 0.9
5.5 0.9
5.5 0.6
5.5 0.7
5.5 0.7
5.5 0.9
5.5 0.8
5.5 0.6
5.5 0.5
5.5 0.3
6.4 -2
6.4 -0.7
6.3 -1.6
6.3 -1.2
6.3 -1.8
6.3 -1.9
6.2 -2.1
6.2 -2.2
6.1 -2.2
6.1 -2.1
6.1 -2
6 -2.1
6 -2.3
21.8 2.6
21.8 3
21.7 0.9
21.7 -0.3
21.7 -0.4
21.7 -0.4
21.7 -0.3
21.7 -0.1
21.7 -0.1
21.7 0.1
21.7 0.2
21.8 0.3
21.8 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
471.3 0.6
472.2 0.6
472.9 0.7
473.6 0.6
474.3 0.6
475.1 0.6
475.8 0.6
476.7 0.7
477.5 0.7
478.3 0.7
479.1 0.7
479.9 0.7
480.7 0.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
215.1 2.3
216.8 2.4
218.3 2.1
219.6 2.6
220.7 2.6
221.7 2.3
222.7 2
223.7 1.9
224.6 1.8
225.5 1.7
226.3 1.6
227.1 1.5
227.7 1.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
1891 1632 259
1955 1700 256
1996 1712 285
2025 1736 289
1979 1677 301
1949 1647 303
1902 1623 279
1904 1649 255
2065 1803 262
2125 1874 251
2151 1910 241
2183 1935 248
2185 1938 247
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
79
T allahassee
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.
The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.7 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $34,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent. The average annual wage level will be $44,400. Population growth will average 0.8 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 13,927.35 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Civilian labor force of 197,543 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 5.2 % as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,370 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144
Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012
80
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, the fourth lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 5.0 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.3 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Federal Government is expected to decline by -1.6 percent and Manufacturing sectors decreasing by -1 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Visit Tallahassee kicks off new marketing push for 2015
• Direct tourism spending in Leon County amounts to nearly $914 million. According to Lee Daniel, the Leon County Division of Tourism Department director, “If you use even a conservative multiplier of 1.4, it’s a billion-dollar industry for Tallahassee and Leon County.”
• The Tallahassee area saw 2.7 million visitors over the last year. According to Daniel, the daily average comes out to 7,397 visitors and $2.5 million in direct spending. Tourism is an important part of the Lean County economy as there are over 11,000 tourismrelated jobs. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 3, 2014
T allahassee
1-MW solar power project completed for Monticello plastics plant
• Vizco, the Visionary Company, a producer of plastic injection-molded drip pans, alarms, and pipe grips for water heaters, recently installed a solar power generator at their facility in Monticello. The installation consists of 3,280 photovoltaic panels that cover almost 4 acres. • The installation has proven successful and is generating excess electric power for its production activity.
• Region Solar, a Sarasota-based company, completed the installation. They say that the equipment is expected to produce 1.45 million kWh of electricity every year. • The owner of VizCo, Chris Cantolino, notes the economic advantages of sustainable energy. “Solar photovoltaic is a smart business choice. Reducing and controlling operational costs increases a business’s competitive edge.”
Wild Wing Café is looking to expand in Tallahassee • The success of the restaurant chain Wild Wing Café has caused the company to look to expand in Tallahassee. The company is currently seeking potential franchise owners.
• Wild Wing Café has many restaurant locations throughout the Southeast in addition to parts of California. Some of its restaurants are corporately owned and others are franchised.
• The franchise sees Tallahassee as an area with a lot of potential for growth due to the area’s attractive residential developments and growing commerce.
• The restaurant hopes to reach 100 locations by 2018 with special attention to certain markets throughout the Southeast. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 3, 2014
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 13, 2014 New Florida law a response to breaches in data security • The Florida Information Protection Act (FIPA) of 2014 was a law that was enacted on July 1 providing new requirements for companies and government agencies to protect personal electronic information. • The law was in response to the many data breaches that have occurred throughout the past year. According to Attorney William Dillon, the law requires businesses to “take reasonable measures to protect and secure information that is in electronic format.”
• FIPA serves as a consumer protection measure, similar to the Privacy Rule of HIPAA, the federal government’s Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act. The main concern of the state Attorney General’s Office is that in situations where there is a breach of consumer information, that victims are immediately notified so that they can avoid further harm. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 15, 2014
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
81
T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%
(percent)
10.0%
1.5
Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 14500.0
(Millions 2000 $)
14000.0
12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate
11500.0
Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%
(percent change year ago)
6.0%
175.0
4.0% 2.0%
170.0
0.0% -2.0%
165.0
82
3
12500.0
4.0%
160.0
2.5
13000.0
6.0%
180.0
2
13500.0
8.0%
2.0%
1
-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
-6.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income
T allahassee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
12.3 -2.4 6.8 5.5 12.3 -2.3 33.6 33.6 39.3 0.2
12.9 5.6 6.8 6.2 12.7 3.8 35.1 34.5 39.8 1.3
13.8 6.6 6.8 7.0 13.2 4.0 37.1 35.6 40.2 0.9
14.0 1.9 6.8 7.2 13.2 0.0 37.5 35.3 41.0 2.0
14.2 1.4 7.0 7.3 13.3 0.2 38.2 35.5 41.4 1.1
14.8 4.0 7.3 7.5 13.6 2.6 39.7 36.5 42.6 2.9
15.4 4.1 7.6 7.8 14.0 3.0 41.1 37.4 44.1 3.6
16.2 4.8 8.0 8.1 14.5 3.4 42.6 38.2 45.7 3.5
17.1 5.8 8.4 8.7 15.1 4.1 44.4 39.2 47.4 3.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 171.1 169.2 168.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.1 -0.7 Manufacturing 3.8 3.7 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.5 -4.1 -11.2 Nonmanufacturing 167.2 165.5 164.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -1.0 -0.5 Construction & Mining 7.0 6.4 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.0 -9.1 -4.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.4 22.2 22.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 -0.9 0.7 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.3 3.3 Retail Trade 17.4 17.3 17.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.6 1.6 Information 3.4 3.1 3.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -9.1 3.5 Financial Activities 7.5 7.4 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 -1.1 0.9 Prof & Business Services 18.4 18.2 18.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -1.6 1.4 Educ & Health Services 19.5 19.6 19.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.4 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 16.4 16.2 16.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.3 0.0 Other Services 9.7 9.5 8.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 -2.2 -5.7 Federal Government 2.0 2.1 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 5.1 -9.1 State & Local Government 60.9 60.9 60.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 0.0 -1.1
166.3 -1.0 3.1 -3.9 163.1 -1.0 5.9 -4.0 22.2 -0.6 3.2 17.4 1.6 3.3 3.6 7.2 -4.0 18.2 -1.1 19.7 -0.6 16.8 3.5 9.2 3.1 1.9 -0.5 58.8 -2.5
167.4 0.7 3.1 -2.5 164.3 0.7 6.2 5.2 22.7 2.3 3.3 17.7 1.7 3.4 1.9 7.3 2.3 18.5 1.5 19.6 -0.5 17.3 3.0 8.8 -3.9 2.0 3.2 58.5 -0.4
169.9 1.5 2.9 -4.5 167.0 1.6 6.4 2.7 23.4 3.2 3.4 18.1 1.9 3.6 6.1 7.3 -0.5 18.8 1.7 19.6 0.0 18.1 5.0 9.0 1.4 1.9 -3.3 58.9 0.7
172.4 1.5 3.0 1.0 169.5 1.5 7.0 10.3 23.6 0.9 3.5 18.2 1.9 3.7 4.0 7.3 -0.1 19.5 3.9 19.8 0.7 18.3 1.1 9.1 1.4 1.9 -0.9 59.2 0.5
174.7 1.3 3.0 -0.3 171.7 1.4 7.7 10.7 23.7 0.4 3.6 18.1 2.0 3.8 2.0 7.3 0.1 20.3 3.9 20.0 1.3 18.4 0.5 9.2 1.5 1.9 -1.1 59.4 0.2
177.2 1.4 2.9 -0.3 174.2 1.4 8.5 9.6 23.9 0.5 3.7 18.0 2.1 3.8 1.0 7.3 -0.1 20.9 2.9 20.2 1.1 18.5 0.6 9.3 1.4 1.8 -1.0 59.9 0.9
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
374.7 0.8 191.0 0.3 7.4 993.0 494.3 499
373.1 -0.4 190.1 -0.5 6.2 1225.0 606.5 618
372.7 -0.1 193.9 2.0 5.4 1340.1 724.8 615
374.8 0.6 199.7 3.0 4.9 1764.6 1001.9 763
379.5 1.2 205.0 2.6 4.8 2000.4 1219.3 781
385.0 1.4 209.3 2.1 4.8 2167.6 1414.5 753
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
365.2 1.0 192.0 0.5 7.3 827.9 613.2 215
368.6 0.9 192.4 0.2 8.3 659.1 603.0 56
371.7 0.8 190.5 -1.0 8.3 782.9 563.3 220
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
83
T allahassee
Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
15.1 4.9 7.4 7.6
15.2 5.1 7.5 7.7
15.3 4.1 7.6 7.7
15.5 3.7 7.7 7.8
15.6 3.6 7.8 7.9
15.8 4 7.9 8
16 4.5 8 8.1
16.3 5.1 8.1 8.2
16.5 5.6 8.2 8.3
16.8 5.8 8.3 8.5
17 5.9 8.4 8.6
17.2 5.8 8.5 8.7
17.4 5.6 8.6 8.8
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
13.8 3.6
13.9 3.9
14 3.1
14 2.6
14.1 2.3
14.3 2.6
14.4 3.2
14.6 3.8
14.7 4.1
14.9 4.3
15 4.2
15.2 4.1
15.3 3.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
40.4 37
40.8 37.3
41 37.3
41.2 37.4
41.5 37.6
42 37.9
42.3 38.1
42.8 38.3
43.2 38.6
43.7 38.9
44.2 39.1
44.6 39.3
45 39.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
43.3 4.3
43.6 3.9
43.9 3.9
44.3 3.6
44.7 3.2
45 3.2
45.5 3.4
45.9 3.6
46.3 3.7
46.7 3.8
47.2 3.8
47.7 3.9
48.2 4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
171.1 1.3
171.7 2
172.2 1.3
172.7 1.4
173.1 1.2
173.7 1.2
174.3 1.2
175.1 1.4
175.8 1.5
176.4 1.5
176.9 1.5
177.4 1.4
177.9 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9 -1
3 0.8
3 1.4
3 1.2
3 0.7
3 0.3
3 -0.3
3 -0.5
2.9 -0.8
2.9 -0.6
2.9 -0.2
2.9 -0.2
2.9 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
168.1 1.4
168.8 2.1
169.2 1.3
169.7 1.4
170.2 1.2
170.7 1.2
171.3 1.3
172.1 1.4
172.8 1.6
173.4 1.6
174 1.5
174.5 1.4
175 1.2
6.6 6.6
6.8 10.2
6.9 10.4
7.1 11.3
7.2 9.2
7.4 9.6
7.6 10.4
7.9 11
8.1 11.6
8.3 11.6
8.4 10.5
8.6 8.9
8.7 7.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
23.5 1.2
23.6 1.2
23.6 0.3
23.7 1.4
23.7 0.9
23.7 0.6
23.7 0.5
23.8 0.3
23.8 0.4
23.8 0.4
23.8 0.5
23.9 0.6
23.9 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.4 18.1 1.9
3.5 18.2 1.9
3.5 18.2 1.9
3.5 18.2 1.9
3.5 18.2 2
3.5 18.1 2
3.6 18.1 2
3.6 18.1 2
3.6 18.1 2
3.6 18 2
3.7 18 2.1
3.7 18 2.1
3.7 17.9 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7 9.1
3.8 11.9
3.7 4.2
3.7 0.9
3.7 -0.4
3.7 -1.7
3.8 2.2
3.8 4
3.8 3.6
3.8 3.6
3.8 1.1
3.8 -0.5
3.8 -0.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3 -1.1
7.3 -0.5
7.3 -0.5
7.3 0.5
7.3 0.3
7.3 0.2
7.3 0.1
7.3 0
7.3 0.2
7.3 0.2
7.3 0.2
7.3 -0.1
7.3 -0.7
19 2.1
19.2 3
19.4 3.6
19.7 4.2
19.9 4.6
20 4.4
20.2 3.8
20.4 3.7
20.6 3.7
20.7 3.6
20.9 3.4
20.9 2.6
21 1.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.6 -0.5
19.7 0.1
19.8 0.5
19.8 1.2
19.8 1
19.9 1
20 0.9
20.1 1.3
20.2 1.9
20.2 1.6
20.2 1.3
20.3 0.9
20.3 0.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
18.2 1.7
18.3 1.8
18.3 -0.2
18.4 1.4
18.4 1.2
18.4 1
18.4 0.6
18.4 0.3
18.4 0.1
18.4 0
18.5 0.5
18.6 0.9
18.6 1.2
9 1.9
9 1.9
9.1 1
9.1 1.3
9.1 1.3
9.2 1.2
9.2 1.4
9.2 1.5
9.3 1.7
9.3 1.7
9.3 1.5
9.4 1.3
9.4 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 -4.3
1.9 -1.1
1.9 -0.8
1.9 -0.6
1.9 -1.1
1.9 -1.1
1.9 -1.2
1.9 -1.1
1.9 -1
1.8 -0.9
1.8 -0.8
1.8 -1
1.8 -1.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
59.4 1.1
59.3 1.8
59.2 0.9
59.1 -0.4
59.2 -0.3
59.3 -0.1
59.3 0.1
59.4 0.4
59.5 0.5
59.7 0.7
59.8 0.9
60 1
60.2 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
373.1 0.1
373.6 0.3
374.3 0.5
375.2 0.7
376.2 0.8
377.4 1
378.8 1.2
380.2 1.3
381.6 1.4
383 1.5
384.3 1.4
385.7 1.4
387.1 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
195.4 2.9
197.3 2.6
199.1 2.7
200.6 3.5
202 3.4
203.2 3
204.4 2.7
205.6 2.5
206.8 2.4
207.8 2.3
208.9 2.2
209.8 2
210.6 1.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
84
5.1
5.1
5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
1413 793 620
1573 896 677
1734 972 762
1841 1056 785
1910 1083 827
1963 1123 839
1954 1165 789
1973 1240 734
2112 1350 762
2155 1395 761
2152 1415 737
2184 1427 757
2178 1421 758
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.
The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.7 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $37,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $51,800. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 122,562.57 million dollars.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,361,463 in October 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 6.0% as of October 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 81,324 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• • • • • • • • • •
Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823
Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority
Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 5.9 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.5 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and the Education and Health Service sector with average annual growth rates of 3.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline of -0.4 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Boutique hotel proposal latest sign of Ybor City’s evolution
• A five-story, 187-room “boutique” hotel was proposed for a 1.3-acre site on the 1400 block of E Seventh Avenue. The $46 million project is proposed by a partnership composed of several influential Tampa families. • The project requires the approval of a 60-foot building height, which exceeds the city’s limit by 15 feet. The hotel would include a rooftop bar, pool and fitness center. With approval, construction could start in the spring, with the hopes of the hotel opening in fall 2016. • This development represents progress in the evolution of Ybor City from an area suffering economically to an independent urban center. The trends of growth were supported by a survey of 262 Ybor City companies that concluded that over 80 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
85
T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r percent of businesses were growing and expanding staff hires. Forty-one new businesses have opened in the area since 2013. Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 1, 2014 Lantmannen Unibake looks to expand its St. Petersburg footprint • St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman is willing to use $600,000 to provide incentive for Lantmannen Unibake, a Danish food processing company, to expand within Tampa. • Lantmannen Unibake is currently located at 1927 Fourth Ave. S, but wants to expand by building a stand-alone pastry baking facility in order to bake pastries that are currently made exclusively in its European bakeries.
• The project would be worth $25 million and is expected to create about 150 jobs within Tampa. The wage for at least one-fifth of those jobs would be $15 per hour due to the location within an enterprise zone (defined by a state program that provides economic incentives for companies to hire local employees). Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 17, 2014 As SeaWorld suffers ‘Blackfish’ impact, Busch Gardens suffers, too • SeaWorld Entertainment is comprised of several SeaWorld and Busch Gardens parks, as well as a few smaller brand parks in the United States. • Within the past year the share price of the company has dropped by almost 50 percent, destroying more than $1.4 billion in market value. The company has received substantial criticism after the release of Blackfish, a film that focuses on the death of three whale trainers throughout SeaWorld’s history. • In its latest quarterly SEC filing, the company’s management attributed the struggles of its business in Florida to delays in opening a new ride at Busch Gardens Tampa and competition from competing parks. Slowing attendance and decreased revenues may provide challenges for SeaWorld to obtain new capital to work on new park projects. Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 17, 2014 86
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
Lockheed Martin to join growing solar presence in Tampa Bay
• Lockheed Martin has plans to build a large solar power system at its Pinellas County facility. The project will consist of a canopy-style system that will cover the employee parking lot. Up to two megawatts of electricity are expected to be produced from this system. • In combination with Great Bay Beer Distributors, Tampa International Airport, C.W. Bill Young VA Medical Center and James A. Haley VA Medical Center, 11 megawatts of electricity will be produced, which could power over 1,400 homes. • The Lockheed facility boasts 380 employees, and provides systems engineering, software development and other services for the aerospace, technology and defense contractor. • According to Curt Engel, Lockheed mission systems and training general manager, construction is expected to begin in early 2015 and become operational by 2016.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 14, 2014 Costco to join Pasco’s Cypress Creek Town Center
• The Cypress Creek Town Center, a 540-acre shopping center being built at the interchange of the I-75 and SR 56, recently welcomed Costco to its list of confirmed retailers. • The Costco Wholesale store will be located on an 18-acre lot near a Sam’s Club and within driving distance to a B.J.’s Wholesale Club.
• The entire shopping center project will span 2 million square feet of space and include retailers, offices, hotels and residences. Also included in the project is a 1.1 million-square-foot Premium Outlets mall, which is being built by Simon and is expected to open in October 2015. • Simon’s marketing effort points out the location near the highway interchange puts the project within a 30-mile drive of nearly 2.7 million people with an average household income of $64,000. Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 3, 2014
T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
0.6
1.2
1.4
130000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
110000.0 100000.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate
(Thousands)
1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0
1
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product
90000.0
Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0
0.8
120000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tampa Payroll Employment
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product
Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness
87
T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
December 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100.4 -3.8 51.1 49.3 100.4 -3.7 36.3 36.3 45.2 1.7
106.7 6.3 51.3 55.4 104.9 4.5 38.2 37.5 45.8 1.3
112.2 5.2 53.0 59.2 107.7 2.7 39.7 38.1 46.6 1.7
116.3 3.6 55.6 60.7 109.6 1.8 40.8 38.5 47.9 2.7
118.9 2.3 57.6 61.3 110.8 1.1 41.4 38.6 48.4 1.0
124.0 4.3 60.5 63.6 114.0 2.9 42.8 39.4 49.9 3.1
129.1 4.1 63.3 65.8 117.4 3.0 44.1 40.1 51.3 2.9
135.4 4.8 66.5 68.9 121.5 3.5 45.6 40.9 53.0 3.2
143.1 5.7 70.0 73.1 126.4 4.0 47.4 41.9 54.9 3.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1117.2 1106.1 1123.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -1.0 1.6 Manufacturing 61.9 58.2 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.4 -6.0 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 1055.3 1047.9 1065.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -0.7 1.6 Construction & Mining 60.2 52.9 52.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -21.2 -12.1 -0.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 210.5 209.4 213.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 -0.5 1.9 Wholesale Trade 47.7 45.9 46.3 Retail Trade 137.1 138.3 141.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.7 25.1 25.8 Information 27.5 25.7 25.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -6.6 0.6 Financial Activities 93.2 89.4 91.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -4.1 2.5 Prof & Business Services 169.9 174.2 182.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 2.5 4.8 Educ & Health Services 174.4 178.0 181.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 2.1 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 122.1 121.4 123.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -0.5 1.3 Other Services 43.1 42.0 41.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -2.7 -1.6 Federal Government 22.7 24.0 22.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 5.6 -4.6 State & Local Government 131.7 131.0 130.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 -0.6 -0.4
1148.6 2.2 59.4 1.1 1089.2 2.3 54.2 2.8 218.9 2.6 48.4 143.9 26.6 25.7 -0.6 95.5 4.3 190.9 4.5 182.3 0.7 128.3 4.3 41.1 -0.6 22.6 -1.3 129.7 -0.6
1177.1 2.5 60.0 1.0 1117.1 2.6 57.1 5.4 222.8 1.8 49.1 146.5 27.3 26.2 2.0 99.6 4.3 199.6 4.5 185.1 1.6 132.5 3.2 42.0 2.3 22.7 0.5 129.4 -0.2
1199.2 1.9 62.0 3.2 1137.2 1.8 58.6 2.6 229.5 3.0 50.0 151.7 27.8 26.0 -0.8 101.1 1.5 207.0 3.7 187.6 1.3 133.8 1.0 41.9 -0.2 22.8 0.4 128.9 -0.4
1221.1 1.8 62.2 0.3 1158.9 1.9 62.8 7.1 233.8 1.9 50.9 153.9 28.6 26.3 0.9 101.7 0.6 213.3 3.1 190.7 1.7 136.2 1.8 42.1 0.6 22.8 -0.2 129.1 0.2
1243.2 1.8 62.0 -0.3 1181.2 1.9 67.9 8.1 235.8 0.8 52.0 153.4 29.5 26.6 1.5 102.3 0.5 221.1 3.6 194.7 2.1 137.8 1.2 42.6 1.1 22.6 -0.8 129.8 0.5
1262.5 1.6 61.7 -0.5 1200.8 1.7 73.5 8.3 237.6 0.8 53.1 152.5 30.4 26.8 0.6 102.5 0.2 227.2 2.8 197.1 1.2 139.5 1.2 43.1 1.1 22.4 -0.9 131.1 1.0
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2848.8 0.7 1321.4 1.0 9.0 9032.1 5893.2 3139
2873.0 0.8 1333.0 0.9 7.3 11614.8 7240.9 4374
2896.8 0.8 1357.1 1.8 6.3 12310.9 7422.5 4888
2930.8 1.2 1386.8 2.2 5.8 15402.6 10029.3 5373
2971.7 1.4 1413.0 1.9 5.7 17609.4 11834.8 5775
3016.7 1.5 1436.9 1.7 5.7 19879.8 14192.7 5687
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
88
2767.9 0.7 1295.1 -0.9 10.8 5902.7 3975.9 1927
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
2795.5 1.0 1292.9 -0.2 11.8 6335.7 4510.7 1825
2828.5 1.2 1307.9 1.2 10.7 6942.4 4491.5 2451
T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r
Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
December 2014
2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
126 4.7 61.4 64.6
127.5 4.7 62.2 65.2
128.5 4 63 65.6
129.7 4 63.7 66
130.9 3.9 64.4 66.5
132.8 4.2 65.2 67.6
134.4 4.6 66 68.4
136.2 5 66.9 69.3
138.1 5.5 67.8 70.3
140.3 5.6 68.7 71.6
142.2 5.8 69.6 72.6
144 5.8 70.4 73.6
145.9 5.6 71.3 74.6
115.4 3.4
116.6 3.6
117.1 3
117.7 2.9
118.4 2.6
119.8 2.8
120.9 3.2
122 3.7
123.3 4.1
124.8 4.1
125.8 4.1
126.9 4.1
128.1 3.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)
43.3 39.7
43.7 40
43.9 40
44.2 40.1
44.5 40.2
44.9 40.5
45.3 40.8
45.7 41
46.2 41.3
46.8 41.6
47.2 41.8
47.7 42
48.1 42.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
50.4 3.6
50.8 3
51.1 2.8
51.5 2.8
51.9 2.9
52.3 2.9
52.7 3.1
53.2 3.3
53.6 3.3
54.1 3.5
54.6 3.6
55.2 3.8
55.7 3.9
Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1205.3 1.5
1212.5 1.7
1218.7 1.6
1224.2 2.1
1228.9 2
1234.3 1.8
1240 1.7
1245.9 1.8
1252.5 1.9
1256.8 1.8
1260.9 1.7
1264.5 1.5
1267.8 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
61.9 1.1
62 -1.2
62.2 0.5
62.2 1.3
62.3 0.7
62.3 0.4
62 -0.2
61.9 -0.5
61.8 -0.9
61.8 -0.8
61.7 -0.5
61.7 -0.4
61.5 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1143.4 1.5
1150.5 1.8
1156.6 1.6
1162 2.2
1166.6 2
1172.1 1.9
1177.9 1.8
1184 1.9
1190.7 2.1
1195 2
1199.2 1.8
1202.8 1.6
1206.3 1.3
59.8 1.4
60.9 4.7
62.1 7.8
63.5 7.9
64.6 8.1
65.8 8.1
67.2 8.1
68.5 7.9
70 8.3
71.4 8.4
72.9 8.5
74.3 8.4
75.6 8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
231.6 2.9
232.6 2.4
233.5 1.9
234.4 1.9
234.9 1.4
235.2 1.1
235.5 0.9
236 0.7
236.6 0.7
236.8 0.7
237.3 0.8
237.9 0.8
238.5 0.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
50.2 153.1 28.1
50.4 153.6 28.2
50.7 153.8 28.4
51 154.1 28.7
51.3 154 28.9
51.5 153.8 29.2
51.8 153.5 29.4
52.1 153.3 29.6
52.5 153.2 29.9
52.7 152.7 30.1
52.9 152.5 30.3
53.2 152.4 30.5
53.5 152.3 30.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
26.3 0.6
26.7 2.8
26.3 1
26.1 0.6
26 -0.9
26.1 -2.2
26.7 1.6
27 3.5
26.8 3
26.9 3
26.9 0.6
26.8 -0.8
26.8 -0.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
101.1 0.6
101.7 1
101.7 -0.1
101.8 0.9
101.8 0.6
102 0.4
102.2 0.5
102.3 0.5
102.6 0.8
102.8 0.7
102.7 0.6
102.5 0.2
102.1 -0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
209.4 3.5
210.9 3.4
212.6 2.9
214 2.9
215.9 3.1
217.7 3.2
219.6 3.3
222.1 3.8
224.9 4.2
226.4 4
227 3.4
227.4 2.4
228 1.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
187.3 0.1
188.7 0.5
190.7 1.2
191.5 2.6
191.8 2.4
192.9 2.2
194.4 2
195.2 1.9
196.3 2.3
196.5 1.9
197 1.3
197.3 1.1
197.4 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
134.2 1.6
135.3 2
135.9 0.7
136.5 2.4
137.3 2.3
137.8 1.9
137.7 1.3
137.9 1
138.1 0.6
138.4 0.5
139 1
139.8 1.4
140.6 1.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
41.9 -0.7
42 0.3
42.1 0
42.2 1
42.3 1
42.4 1
42.5 1.1
42.7 1.1
42.8 1.2
42.9 1.1
43 1.1
43.1 1.1
43.3 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 0
22.8 -0.2
22.8 0.2
22.8 -0.1
22.7 -0.6
22.7 -0.6
22.6 -0.8
22.6 -0.9
22.5 -0.9
22.5 -0.9
22.4 -0.7
22.4 -0.9
22.3 -1
128.9 -0.2
129 -0.1
129 0.2
129.1 0.3
129.3 0.3
129.4 0.4
129.6 0.5
129.9 0.6
130.1 0.6
130.5 0.8
130.9 1
131.3 1.1
131.8 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2908 0.9
2916.8 1
2925.9 1.1
2935.3 1.2
2945.1 1.3
2955.5 1.3
2965.9 1.4
2977 1.4
2988.3 1.5
2999.2 1.5
3010.8 1.5
3022.5 1.5
3034.3 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1365.9 2.5
1375.3 2.3
1383.7 1.8
1390.9 2.4
1397.2 2.3
1403.4 2
1409.7 1.9
1416.3 1.8
1422.7 1.8
1428.7 1.8
1434.4 1.8
1439.8 1.7
1444.9 1.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
13236 8299 4937
14111 9177 4934
15173 9800 5373
15929 10488 5441
16398 10652 5746
16939 10957 5981
17094 11294 5801
17573 11969 5604
18832 13120 5712
19402 13728 5674
19654 14103 5552
20147 14404 5743
20316 14536 5780
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
89
I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient
E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.
C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006
90
Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2014
SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.
We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u