SinoShip Autumn Issue 2014 by Splash

AUTUMN 2014

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos si w. ww

China’s FLNG ambitions Call for better accommodation blocks Propulsion special report www.sinoshipnews.com

‘I would have done things differently’ Exclusive interview with Nobu Su

Supply chain stitched

Textiles giant moves into shipping

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 5 Economy 7 Lines

As a country, China can only benefit from overcapacity and generally low freight rates

—Dr Helmut Sohmen, chairman, BW Group

9 Yards 11 Offshore 12 Finance 13 Commodities 15 Logistics

■ ■ ■ Profiles 17 Chen Jianhua

The relatively low downpayment is very attractive, but a lot of financing uncertainty could be removed which would attract more orders into shipyards — Evan Claar, chairman, CBI-MMEER

19 Nobu Su 20 Ren Zeyou 21 Shi Wei

■ ■ ■ Features 23 LNG

Whatever market pick up there will be, it won’t last for a long time — Nobu Su, chairman, Today Makes Tomorrow

27 Propulsion

31 Law

■ ■ ■ Hubs 34 Shanghai 35 Taipei 37 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews

We are still facing a series of challenges, including a more competitive market and a worsening environment — Ren Zeyou, founder, Zesheng Group

38 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions 39 Bei Hong 41 Andrew Craig-Bennett

Offshore platform operators are slowing down their orders as the oil companies are temporarily cutting expenditure — Shi Wei, executive director, Cosco Shipyard

Sinoship Autumn 2014

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Colin Shek HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI David Green CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com SALES DIRECTOR Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details. Media kits are available TO download at:

www.asiashippingmedia.com All commercial material should be sent to grant@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705 DESIGN Tigersoft Pte Ltd PRINTERS Allion Printing, Hong Kong SUBSCRIPTIONS

Any shipping-related company headquartered in the People’s Republic of China can receive SinoShip magazine for free. For all other companies a US$100 subscription is charged for 2014’s four issues of SinoShip. Email sales@asiashippingmedia.com for subscription enquiries.

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com. Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

Lobbying behind the scenes in Beijing When the decision was made to found SinoShip close to three years ago it was done in the knowledge that China was already the king of cargoes and would likely plough on to become truly the dominant force in the maritime sphere – it has not disappointed in this regard. Once again China flexed its muscles in world shipping at the start of summer – everyone else better get used to this; the People’s Republic is not for turning. China smashed P3, a proposed mega alliance between the top three containerlines, Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM, just as it downed Brazilian miner’s plans to deploy giant 400,000 dwt bulkers to China. The common link between these two events, despite the official announcement coming from government ministries, has been the maritime lobbyist-in-chief, the China Shipowners’ Association (CSA). The CSA works very hard behind the scenes to get its members’ viewpoint across well to the government. Despite assurances from Maersk that everything is in place for a smooth start to its P3 replacement, 2M, a vessel sharing agreement (VSA) with MSC, there must be some concern at the two liners’ European headquarters as the CSA has already made some public comments against the proposed VSA. Still, it is very much a fluid, two-way street when it comes to the CSA, its leading state-run members and the government. Following years of heavy losses, Beijing made clear that any more state funds would come only if the top lines were willing to collaborate. What we have seen since are the nation’s top containerlines coming together on certain routes and just recently China Merchants and Sinotrans & CSC forming a tanker partnership. Not everyone is happy with this enforced betrothal, however, as a number of smaller shipowners have made clear of late in a public letter saying that Cosco, China Shipping and Sinotrans, who are now working together on China – Japan routes, have too much control that market segment.

As an addendum to all this discussion, the other day I was chatting with the chairman of the BW Group, Dr Helmut Sohmen, and he provided an interesting contrarian view about China's shipping rise. China is playing a very long-term game with its overall shipping plans, Sohmen said, while discussing the growing Chinese shipbuilding capacity, rising export/import volumes, and increasing investment in shipowning, both private and state-owned. “Let's face it,” he said, “as a country, China can only benefit from overcapacity and generally low freight rates.” China may well be on the way to becoming the most powerful commercial shipping nation around, but its route to the top will undoubtedly ruffle quite a few feathers.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship Autumn 2014

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Economy ■ ■ ■

Services drive growth, but exports are coming back

Other nations would bite your arm off for 7.6% GDP growth, argues Paul French The services sector appears to be holding up China’s economic growth at present. HSBC reported the sector expanded at its fastest pace in 15 months in June. However, the services sector is notoriously difficult to quantify in China. Matthew Crabbe, a consumer sector analyst, recently wrote in his new book Mythbusting China’s Numbers that, “There is a great deal of the services sector in China that continues to go underreported, despite the increased coverage of services sectors in the last economic census data…and yet the private services sector is one of the

strongest growth components in employment generation in the economy.” However, this service sector growth does seem to mean that, with the growth in manufacturing in the first half of the year, China’s economy has stabilised somewhat from last year. A combination of enhanced factory activity and a growth in services has meant a miniboom in consumer sales of late, in line with the Beijing government’s long-term drive to rebalance the economy away from exports and investment towards domestic production and consumption. The services sector accounts for

approximately 45% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and now accounts for almost half of all jobs in the country and the major area of new job creation. This new buoyancy may mean that the currently

China GDP Predictions Year

% GDP growth

2013 2014 2015 2016

7.7 7.6 7.5 7.2

Source: World Bank

Increased demand for Chinese exports is an indicator that global growth is bouncing back strongly

sluggish property market will get a shot in the arm later in the year. However, exports remain sluggish (and manufacturing for export job creation close to plateauing) while high local government debt levels remain as key risks. Still, the ruling Communist Party appears happy to let the economy grow as it is and, while on a trip to Germany, premier Li Keqiang ruled out any more stimulus spending in the economy. Li reiterated, albeit cautiously, that 7.4% remained China’s GDP growth target for 2014. The IMF says it expects growth in the region of 7.4% this year though the World Bank predicts 7.6 % (see chart below). However, for those in shipping the slippage in export orders may be of concern. It is hoped that export recovery will start to show through in the numbers in the third quarter of the year and show, perhaps, a 10% growth over the same time last year, according to the China General Administration of Customs. Chinese manufacturers report renewed orders from the US as America’s economy continues to improve and, rather than stimulus, Beijing is likely to offer a raft of incentives (tax breaks, improved currency transaction regulations and credit insurance) targeted at incentivising smaller manufacturers to better chase and win export orders. Once again perhaps we look to the old adage that ‘as goes China, so goes the world’ in that increased demand for exports from China can be seen as an indicator that global growth is bouncing back strongly and once more needs the workshop of the world. Sinoship Autumn 2014

LINES ■ ■ ■

company by the end of this year and potentially list it later.

The power of the China Shipowners’ Association (CSA) was in evidence once again. The grouping, which persuaded Beijing to ban valemax bulkers from calling in China, was also behind the denying of the creation of the P3 container alliance of Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM. The CSA is now also lobbying authorities to try and thwart 2M, a vessel sharing agreement between Maersk and MSC. Separately, in a moment of domestic infighting, a number of smaller Chinese lines have hit out at the market imbalance created by the so-called C3 grouping. C3 is made up of Cosco, China Shipping and Sinotrans, who jointly operate container services on Japan routes.

The internal restructure of Sinotrans&CSC has finally made a substantial step. The group has established a dedicated shipping department which will put all its shipping units under one roof, based in Shanghai. Sinotrans&CSC is expected to register the shipping department as a separate

China Shipping launched an internal discipline investigation on the group’s 1,344 management personnel. The group is cracking down on anyone who has been doing their own business beyond their day jobs. The National Audit Office released an audit this June on group, noting how the company has violated several financial regulations.

China Shipping Tanker (CST) paid a total of RMB1.66bn to Sinochem International Corporation and Shanghai Shipping Group to take a 40% stake in Shanghai North Sea Shipping. North Sea mainly provides petrochemical shipping services between domestic coastal ports and Yangtze river ports. It currently operates eight owned tankers and has four chartered tankers.

China’s massive anti-graft campaign has snared a high profile shipping company in Dalian. Haichang Group, a diverse conglomerate involved in property, oil, tourism and shipping, stands accused by the National Audit Office of having misused funds given to it by local authorities. Instead of buying

overseas technology, as originally directed, Haichang, one of China’s larger private tanker players, used the cash to buy vineyards in France. Haichang now owns more than 10 vineyards in France.

Dorian LPG, a Greek VLGC player, has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with HNA Logistics to explore opportunities in the LPG logistics market.

Hong Kong-based East Sunrise Group has signed with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) for ten jack-up platforms. The total value of the contract is around RMB10bn.

Hengli Shipping, a new shipping company based in Dalian, received the first of ten 15,000 dwt bulkers it ordered at Jiangsu Haitong Offshore Engineering. The rest will be delivered by the end of this year. Hengli Shipping is the

www.maris.no sales@maris.no

shipping arm of Hengli Group, a multi-sector enterprise which is in the fields of petrochemicals, engineering plastics, real estate and financing.

Eastern Media International (EMI), a Taiwan-based enterprise which is engaged in bulk shipping, tourism, digital media and real estate, is considering quitting the shipping sector after its current chartering contracts expire. According to Shang-Wen Liao, president of EMI, one capesize bulker chartering contract will expire in April 2016 and the chartering contracts of the other 12 panamax bulkers will gradually expire before the end of 2019. Liao said the company will not extend these contracts and will look to quit the shipping sector, and move its focus to media, e-commerce and trade.

Shanghai-listed multisector enterprise Orient International is planning to expand its bulk shipping business through subsidiary Shanghai Newseas Navigation. The company announced plans to use about RMB1bn in raised funds to expand the bulker fleet of Shanghai Newseas Navigation over the next three to five years with seven secondhand bulkers eyed. Newseas currently owns three bulkers.

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

‘The white list is a way to ensure others fade to black’ Beijing has set strict new parameters for shipbuilders to qualify for future funding

China continues to grapple with rampant overcapacity at its shipyards and a new round of consolidation is likely following the news that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has decided to make a ‘white list’ of shipyards. Those that fail to get onto the list will struggle to get loans from financial institutions. The cash taps will be turned off, strangling shipyard supply, or at least that is the idea. As it stands worldwide shipyard supply capacity comes to around 100m gt, at least double actual demand, with China very much to blame for most of the extreme growth in yard capacity seen in the past 10 years. MIIT is demanding shipbuilders hand in reports on a

wide range of factors: current orders, the state of their production facilities, research and development efforts, quality control mechanisms and environmental protection measures. This information is then set against against government-set criteria. Companies will be evaluated based on order backlogs, fresh orders and recent output. To survive, shipbuilders must soak up as many orders as they can before the deadline, thought

78.2%

Growth in new orders in China in the first six months

to be at the end of this year, hence ongoing attractive prices and available delivery slots at many yards across the People’s Republic. The white list could well be tampered with, however, as analysts warn, local authorities, concerned about the disruption potentially caused by yard closures, will look to inflate statistics of yards in their region to ensure they make it on to the list. Moreover, experts are convinced that there has been – and will be through to the end of the year – a spike in phantom orders at Chinese yards. China's political advisory body convened a meeting this August to discuss the development of the nation’s shipbuilding and the issue of overcapacity and echoed the white list

concept, suggesting cash would be made available only to efficient companies. Mandarins in Beijing have intimidated in the past that they would like to mirror shipbuilding development in Korea where eight to 10 big yard groups account for the vast majority of orders; the eventual aim in China is to have less than 30 giant yards competing for the vast majority of orders. “The white list is a way to ensure others fade to black,” commented one shipbuilding analyst in Hong Kong. Zhang Guangqin, president of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (Cansi), reckons capacity has mercifully topped out among his membership. “Capacity infrastructure has reached its peak. Chinese yards should no longer rely on the past business strategy of investing to expand capacity and assets,” Zhang told local media in mid-August. Consolidation will continue for the next few years, he added. Despite the tough times, figures for the first half show China topping the world for both commercial ships and offshore orders. Chinese yards won a total of 40.8m dwt ship orders in the first six months, up 78.2% compared with the previous year. The nation’s order backlog grew to 152.1m dwt, up 39.5% compared with the same period last year. On top of that, the nation scored $7.9bn in offshore orders. Sinoship Autumn 2014

OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

CNOOC unveils ambitious floating gas quest There’ll be a scramble as yards jostle for a prestigious offshore contract worth billions, writes Sam Chambers You could almost hear the groans from across the Yellow Sea when China energy giant China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) announced plans this July to build a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessel for use in the South China Sea, stepping into yet another territory that has been the purview of Korean shipyards to date. FLNG ships are ocean-based liquefaction plants that can be positioned above reserves to chill extracted gas and load it into LNG tankers for delivery, a technology that could make fields too remote or too small to develop using undersea pipelines viable for production. CNOOC’s chief deepwater researcher Xie Bin told a seminar recently: "For disputed waters, we need to be self-sufficient because we can't expect onshore support from any neighbouring nations.” Xie was referring to China’s recent forays further and further into the South China Sea that has irked its neighbours as it searches for oil and gas in contested areas.

BIG BROTHER Shell’s Prelude being built in Korea will be 50% larger than anything CNOOC plans

The company is currently doing a pre-feasibility study and is talking to international engineering companies about a possible joint design of the vessel. According to an official from CNOOC, the aim is to develop an FLNG plant that could handle up to 2.4m tonnes of gas per year and operate at a depth of 1,500 m. CNOOC earlier announced that its research and development arm together with

two Chinese universities had designed a small-scale FLNG vessel with a capacity of about 5,000 tonnes of gas per year. Wang Jinlian, secretary-general of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, said the government was ready to finance research and development and offer tax incentives for any local manufacturing work needed to build such floating liquefaction plants. About 10 FLNG facilities

CNG world first The world's first compressed natural gas (CNG) carrier has been ordered by Pelayaran Bahtera Adhiguna, a subsidiary of Indonesia's state-owned power company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PT PLN). The ship, to be classed by American class society ABS, will be built in China with speculation that Qingdao Wuchuan Heavy Industry has won the contract The CNG ship has been designed by China's CIMC Ocean Engineering Design & Research Institute. PT PLN's inaugural CNG ship, which will be dual-classed with the Indonesian class society

Biro Klasifikasi Indonesia, will be 110 m in length and offer sailing speeds of 14 knots. It is designed to offer a nominal CNG capacity of 2,200 cu m and will fly the Indonesian flag.

are being planned globally with a handful under construction, among them the biggest, Prelude, owned by Royal Dutch Shell and due to be producing from an offshore Australian field by 2017. Shell has shied away from offering estimates of Prelude’s likely cost, but analysts say it could be more than $12bn. China’s first FLNG is likely to cost several billion dollars too. While CNOOC may choose to build the FLNG at one its own yards, there will be a raft of Chinese firms chasing the business including, no doubt, Hudong-Zhonghua and Dalian Shipbuilding. However, likely leading the pack is Shanghai’s Wison. This June, Wison presented two technically and commercially feasible concepts to Cott Oil and Gas for the Pandora gas field project in the Gulf of Papua, including one that involves an FLNG design. Wison’s design is a 1m tonne per year offshore FLNG vessel incorporating gas clean up, liquefaction and storage for 170,000 cu m. Sinoship Autumn 2014

■ ■ ■ FINANCE

Banks put squeeze on China's towering offshore aspirations Jason Jiang went along to Marine Money’s recent offshore event in Dalian. Highlights below

Chinese banks are more cautious about providing finance to the offshore industry to avoid overcapacity, according to Chinese bank representatives discussing China's offshore industry at the Marine Money Offshore event in Dalian earlier this summer. “Currently most shipyards see the offshore industry as the new growth point and want to enter the industry, however, lots of them don’t have enough capability to build offshore products,” said Gao Zefeng, assistant general manager, transport 12

www.sinoshipnews.com

finance department, at China Exim Bank. “We are currently making a white list for shipyards involved in the offshore business, and we will only provide financing to the shipyards on the list,” Gao added. “It’s not that we don’t support smaller shipyards, we need

Demand for jack-up rigs has dropped 25% in the first half

to avoid the overcapacity problem in the shipbuilding market happening again in the offshore industry,” Gao explained. Zhang Xu, deputy director, ship finance centre, China Development Bank (CDB), agreed with Gao, and said CDB is putting together a similar list. “The domestic shipyards will have to enhance their standards in order to get into the list, it will improve the overall standards of domestic shipyards and also lower the risks of the banks,” Zhang said. Delagates were told by a number of speakers about how prices for offshore products are declining, further squeezing yards’ profit margins. The cost of financing is increasing as the banks have increased interest rates for offshore financing, and payment terms have worsened. The advance payment percentage has dropped to 10% or even lower from the 30% seen six years ago. “The demand for jack-up rigs has dropped 25% in the first half of this year comparing with the same period of 2013, also there are more orders from speculative investors,” said Yu Fengping, president of Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (DSIC). The event also attracted a number of owners including Evan Claar, chairman of the joint venture, known as CBIMMEER, which has ordered a total of four multi-use accommodation and construction support jack-up units worth around $150m each at DSIC. Claar called for Chinese yards to be more precise with their pricing if they are to get more offshore orders.

“The relatively low downpayment is very attractive,” he said, “but a lot of financing uncertainty could be removed which would attract more orders into the shipyards. For example, we are going through our construction, I still don’t know with precision how much money we are going to need, nor do I know what the fee package is going to look like.”

CIMC increases finance focus China International Marine Containers (CIMC), a major container manufacturer, is expanding its financial leasing business through its subsidiary, CIMC Financial Leasing. “CIMC is expected to add RMB8bn financial leasing business this year,” Zeng Beihua, managing director of CIMC Financial Leasing, said this July. According to Zeng, CIMC Financial Leasing currently manages about RMB10bn worth of assets. Among clients are containerlines MSC and CMA CGM, who tapped CIMC for a series of super post panamaxes. CIMC is also planning an offshore finance business and high-end marine services at Qianhai, the special economic zone currently under development in Shenzhen. CIMC will team up with a Hong Kong financial institute to start the new business.

Commodities ■ ■ ■

Aluminum alarm Indonesia’s bauxite ban is the latest headache to an ailing industry, reports Mark Downing

Essential to China’s relentless urbanisation, aluminium is yet another of China’s fixes. It is increasingly producing more of this versatile metal than any other country for use throughout industries as diverse as construction, manufacturing and packaging. Despite global oversupply, plant closures and rising production costs, China continues to expand its production capacity while struggling to secure sufficient raw ore. According to Bloomberg, domestic bauxite supplied just over a third of China’s needs last year, with an additional 71.6m tonnes imported of which 48.7m tonnes were sourced from Indonesia. Bauxite is refined into alumina and then transformed via electrolysis into aluminium. But since January, China has been forced to find alternative sources owing to the Indonesian ban on ores to spur on its local processing industry. Some observers speculate that the new Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, may relax the export ban. If the ban holds, much of the Indonesian bauxite industry may be shut down for several years as developing upstream facilities is expensive and time consuming. The Chinese alumina refiners were given the option that, if they committed to build facilities in

Indonesia, they could continue imports until their refineries were operational. However, faced with domestic processing overcapacity and low profitability, such investment is not feasible. Ahead of the ban, China’s aluminium producers stockpiled upwards of a year’s worth of supply of raw material. Moreover, they have been actively seeking new sources to accommodate their ambitious plans for capacity expansion. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, estimates that Chinese bauxite demand will increase by 30% by 2018 and may reach as much as 240m tonnes by 2030. China’s aluminium industry, like many others, is blighted by overcapacity and in need of restructuring. Falling prices and heavy losses have forced several Chinese smelters to shut down. As Beijing pushes to further shutter outdated, inefficient and polluting facilities, local governments are pressed to preserve

71.6m

Tonnes of bauxite China imported last year, of which 48.7m came from Indonesia

jobs, often extending subsidies. Despite some plant closures, China’s overall production capacity is ever-expanding. Domestic producers are tapping into the billion tonnes of high quality bauxite reserves of Shanxi province. A new generation of smelters is being built in northwest China, particularly in Xinjiang, owing to the region’s trillion tonnes of cheap thermal coal. Such ample low-cost energy is vital since electrical power accounts for almost half the cost of aluminium production, drawing nearly a tenth of China’s electrical capacity. “If you strip away politics and environmental concerns, the bottom line is that China is consuming 25m tonnes [of aluminium] with an 8% long term annual growth rate,” Paul Adkins, managing director of the consultancy AZ China, tells SinoShip. “There will be a substantial amount of new metal put into the market. While domestic bauxite production has accelerated, [China] is still nowhere near the ability to be self-sustainable.” There is no alternative supplier of bauxite of a sufficient scale and quality to replace Indonesia. “Indonesia happened to be in the right place at the right time. The decision to stop exports [of ores] will become a

boon for shipping companies. Wherever China gets its material, it will be a longer journey. China is very heavily exploring West Africa, Jamaica, India, even Fiji. The threat is that China reverts to importing alumina, at 40% of the volume of bauxite. Alumina is always China’s Plan B. But China is already long on alumina refining capacity, so it is crazy to ship it from overseas,” says Adkins. Australian capacity can only meet some of the demand, but comes coupled with higher production costs. India recently imposed export duties on bauxite to support local aluminium producers faced with a shortage owing to mining curbs. “The real big opportunity for China is West Africa, but it’s on the wrong side of the continent. It has the longest journey plus the biggest political risk,” says Adkins. In June, Hongqiao, China’s largest non-state aluminium producer, announced its intention to buy a mine situated in Guinea, the country endowed with the world’s largest bauxite reserves. Since the local aluminium producers, mired with overcapacity, intense competition and conflicted government interests are being forced to diversify sourcing, it is seaborne trade that is poised to benefit the most. Sinoship Autumn 2014

LOGISTICS■ ■ ■

Click send China’s e-commerce giants are spending big on supply chains With the fast development of China’s internet economy, e-commerce and logistics have become hot topics. According to a report released by the China E-Commerce Research Center (CECRC), China’s online sales volume reached RMB1,885bn ($305bn) in 2013, and 70% of the online sales business were completed by express with 50% of the express business coming from the e-commerce industry. In order to better control their supply chains, e-commerce companies in China have poured into the logistics industry, which has become a new battlefield in the struggle for mastery of the world’s most exciting online retail nation. Leading e-commerce companies including JD, Dangdang and Alibaba have all put logistics as an important part of their future development plans. Chinese online shopping platform JD, which listed on the NASDAQ in May, has signed an RMB2bn deal with the Nanjing local government to build a smart logistics centre in the city. Liu Dongqiang, ceo of JD, said last year that the company plans to invest RMB10bn in the next three years to develop its logistics business. JD currently operates seven warehousing facilities in China with plans to increase the number to 60 by 2015 and to add 10 automated warehouses by 2020. JD launched its Shanghai logistics centre – Asia No.1 – at the end of 2013, claiming that the facility is Asia’s largest warehousing facility with a usable area of some 230,000 sq m. JD is currently building two

similar facilities in Shenyang and Guangzhou. “We had no choice but to develop our own logistics business as the logistics costs in China are too high. It has greatly decreased our logistics costs in the whole supply chain,” Liu said, adding that currently logistics costs account for about 5.8% of JD’s revenue. JD’s ‘Asia’s largest’ crown was taken away only seven months later with rival Dangdang announcing in July that it has started operations of its largest warehousing facility, Galaxy No.1, in Tianjin. The facility is almost four times larger than JD’s. Dangdang also announced plans to develop 100 warehousing facilities in the next three years and expand its network to tier three and tier four cities. “Currently the e-commerce market in the tier one and tier two cities is almost saturated,

$305bn China’s online sales volume last year

lots of e-commerce companies are looking to expand into smaller cities, even counties, which will create more challenges on logistics. So we will invest more on logistics in the future in order to coordinate the business expansion of the company,” said Ren Qiang, a senior director of Dangdang. However, Wang Haihui, ceo of fast developing online store, Yihaodian, is not a big fan of such massive warehousing facilities. “It is just wrong for e-commerce companies to build such massive warehousing facilities,” he warned. “It is not really costeffective, what really matters for e-commerce companies is inventory management,” Wang said, adding that Yihaodian is making efforts to decrease its inventory turnover cycle from the current 20 days to 10 in the coming year. Alibaba, China’s top e-commerce player, is currently developing a nationwide logistics network which will support its RMB30bn online sales volume per day in the next five to eight years through its newly established joint venture Cainiao.

However, Alibaba said Cainiao will only be a fourth party smart logistics platform, which will connect all relevant parties in the e-commerce and logistics sector while Alibaba itself will never enter the express business. “What we are doing now is to solve the logistics problems of the next decade,” said Wang Shuai, chief marketing officer of Alibaba. Alibaba has also teamed up with state-run shipping line China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) this July to create an integrated logistics platform which both China Shipping's clients and Alibaba's clients can use for online logistics price inquiries, ordering, settlement and goods tracking. “E-commerce companies entering into the logistics sector will definitely bring pressure to express companies, forcing them to improve their services and establishing alliances, and conversely some express companies have plans to enter the e-commerce market,” said an official from the China Express Association. SF Express, one of China’s largest express companies, started an online food market, sfbest.com, in 2012. It now delivers food products to 68 cities in China as well as delivering fresh and frozen goods to nine cities in China. The promising market has also attracted banks and financial institutions. China Merchants Bank (CMB) has introduced a new supply chain financing package for e-commerce companies. Other banks are readying similar packages. Sinoship Autumn 2014

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Zipped up One of the world’s largest textile manufacturers has just moved into shipowning. Jason Jiang reports

ew people know the Chinese textile market better than Chen Jianhua, the president of Hengli Group, a leading fabric company in the People’s Republic. Chen bought a bankrupt textile factory in Jiangsu and started Hengli Group in 1994. Some 20 years later and Hengli Group has become one of the largest weaving companies in the world with more than 60,000 employees. Its end users include world famous names like Nike, Adidas and Toyota. Despite his heady position within the sector, Chen is aware that China risks losing its top billing for garment exports. “Currently the textile industry in China is facing many challenges including a decrease in overseas orders, rising labour costs, the appreciation of the RMB, and blind investments from speculators,” Chen says. Chen believes the industry needs innovations to get through the current difficulties. “We are always looking for opportunities to diversify our business, but there isn’t much room for chemical fibre textile companies to transform, so we have decided to put our focus on the production of purified terephthalic acid (PTA), which makes polyester. We mostly relied on imports previously, and now we are investing in upstream industries and shipping to grab control of the whole industrial chain,” Chen says. Hengli Group started a petrochemical subsidiary, Hengli Petrochemical, in 2010, and currently has been developing a PTA manufacturing base on Dalian’s Changxing island, a place that enjoys favourable policies for petrochemical and marine development. Hengli has allocated an investment of RMB25bn in total for the project. The group started operation of two PTA production lines in 2012 with total capacity of 4.4m tons each year, which has already made it the largest PTA factory in the world. Hengli Petrochemical completed a sales revenue of RMB43bn in 2013. According to Chen, the third PTA production line is expected to start operation in September this year and Hengli Petrochemical is expected to increase its sales revenue to RMB60bn this year.

In order to support the production and transport of PTA, Hengli has also developed its own shipping terminal, railway and power plant on Changxing island. The two 100,000 dwt terminals have a joint annual handling capacity of 6.4m tons. Hengli started its own shipping company, Hengli Shipping, last year and ordered ten 15,000 dwt ships, which will be dedicated to PTA transport, at Jiangsu Haitong Offshore Engineering. Hengli Shipping started operations in July this year following the delivery of the first three vessels. The rest of the ships are expected to be delivered before the end of this year. The company is now the only dedicated PTA shipping company in northeast China. Chen says the deliveries of the vessels have changed the company’s history of transporting with chartered ships and the new vessels will greatly improve the transport efficiency in the group’s supply chain, adding that the investment in the PTA project and shipping are important steps to complete the group’s industrial chain and ease the raw material scarcity

The textile industry in China is facing many challenges

facing the domestic textile industry. Hengli Group has also invested RMB10bn to develop a new raw material manufacturing base through another subsidiary, Kanghui Petrochemical, on Yingkou’s Xianren island. The phase one project started operations in June this year. Up to now, Hengli has established an industrial network with five manufacturing bases in Suzhou, Nantong, Suqian, Dalian and Yingkou.

NEED NEED TO TO KNOW KNOW Hengli Shipping Hengli Shipping was established in 2013 as the shipping arm of Hengli Group, one of the largest textile companies in the world. The company has started operations this year following the deliveries of first three out of ten bulk carriers it ordered at Jiangsu Haitong. The rest of the ships are expected to be deliveried before the end of this year. Sinoship Autumn 2014

www.sinoshipnews.com

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Too close to the sun Nobu Su, the man who flew too high, is now fighting court cases on multiple fronts. Exclusive interview by Jason Jiang and Sam Chambers

inoShip spent the best part of six months tracking down the elusive, mercurial Nobu Su for an interview. Few have soared so high and crashed so spectacularly as Su, the boss of Taiwan’s Today Makes Tomorrow (TMT). When we meet up, Su is not what we had expected, the larger than life character of six years ago has been replaced by someone more quiet, more reflective and, to our mind, sounding a little bit edgy. Understandably so, given the court cases he is fighting in so many corners of the globe. The image his PR firm asks us to use speaks volumes. Gone are the youthful looks, the lines on the forehead and the grey locks tell their own story. Most pertinently however in the mugshot is the volume of gold colours for this was the man that felt his Midas touch would never leave him. One of the industry’s most enigmatic characters, far more technically astute than most other shipowners (pioneering previously unheard of ship conversions, for example), Su got big by betting big. He was the biggest FFA player during the boom years and he was right about Chinese iron ore imports, but he grew too big, too fast and when things turned, he had nowhere to go. During the boom era he was the game in town, feted by every broker and snake oil salesman and, looking back, it’s easy to argue he just could not stop believing what they said. Come the financial crisis, like the Emperor’s New Clothes, Su was exposed and bereft.

Su’s demise has seen an empire fall apart, ships sold, crews left stranded and unpaid and lawyers spending many an hour in courts fighting for every nickel and dime. “We decided to let some ships to go as the shipping market will stay quiet a long time in my view,” Su says, disregarding court verdicts that mandated vessel sales. Su is keen to highlight a number of intellectual property issues he has raised in a US court. He has more than 10 patents related to shipping and he feels some are infringing on his designs. “I think this overcapacity and structural change will eventually lead people who know how to create different solutions to survive. So I’m working on it,” he says of his many self-created ship designs. Looking at the markets today,

This was the man that felt his Midas touch would never leave him

once-bitten, twice-shy Su is not keen to make any investments in shipping now. He cites the “huge market volatility” in both dry bulk and tankers and how “brittle” both sectors are, with overcapacity a new constant. “Whatever market pick up there will be,” Su says, “it won’t last for a long time as we have huge overcapacity. I don’t expect good markets in any of the shipping markets.” Looking back, Su now reckons market forces were beyond his control for his mistimed investments. “The freight was not decided in the normal competitive way,” he recalls, adding: “It is decided in a very anti-competitive way. I did not get this feeling for a long time. So if I knew, I would not invest so largely, like $7bn in orders at two major Korean shipyards. I would have played it differently.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW TMT One of the most high profile casualties of the shipping downturn Today Makes Tomorrow (TMT) has been run by Nobu Su since 2002 when his father died. Originally founded in 1958 as Taiwan Maritime Transportation, in its 2007 heyday under archrisk taker Su, TMT operated more than 130 ships. The company is now subject to numerous bankruptcy related cases.

Sinoship Autumn 2014

■ ■ ■ Profile

Ready for takeoff Jason Jiang chats with the founder of one of the nation’s largest river tanker names

mong thousands of old vessels on China’s Yangtze river, Zesheng Shipping’s modern tankers in eye-catching yellow and red colours are not difficult to spot. The company currently is the leading petrochemical shipping firm on the river. Ren Zeyou, general manager and cofounder of the firm, started his career as an apprentice on a ship in the 1980s, before moving on to operate a shipping business with chartered ships on the Yangtze in the 1990s. He started Zesheng Group with his brother in 2003 with only one owned 2,000 dwt chemical tanker, but just five years later the company’s fleet had grown to 29 vessels. In 2008, Zesheng Group and the logistics arm of China National Aviation Fuel (CNAF) started a 50/50 joint venture, Chongqing Zesheng Shipping. With support from its state-run partner, Zesheng Shipping has become one of the top names on the Yangtze and the only aviation oil shipping company in southwest China. Its fleet has grown from 29 vessels to the current 62 vessels in the past five years. Total shipping capacity has grown from 85,000 dwt to 300,000 dwt. The company’s profit has also kept an average annual growth of 20% in the period. According to Ren, the company has another four vessels on order. “The demand for aviation oil in southwest China has been increasing thanks to the fast growing aviation industry in the region. Most of the aviation oil is transported from the middle and eastern China via inland rivers, however CNAF didn’t have its own shipping capacity at the time and most of its oil was shipped by chartered ships which created lots of risk for them,” Ren explains. “CNAF has market advantage and

finance advantage and we have advantages in shipping fleet management,” Ren says. Ren is optimistic about the petrochemical shipping market on the Yangtze, saying: “With more petrochemical projects to be developed along the river, we are quite confident about future prospects.” Zesheng has also formed long term strategic partnerships with several large-scale companies including Sinopec, PetroChina, Pengwei Petrochemical and Kingboard Chemical Holdings. “We are still facing a series of challenges, including a more competitive market and a worsening environment,” Ren says. In order to promote environmental protection on the Yangtze and keep the sustainable development of the company, Zesheng and CNAF have established another joint venture, Zesheng Tanker

We are still facing a series of challenges, including a more competitive market and a worsening environment 20

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Cleaning Company, which provides green tanker cleaning solutions. “Tanker cleaning for each vessel will create about 100 tons of waste water, it would be a serious pollution if the waste water is not treated well,” Ren says. The company aims to expand its fleet to 83 vessels in the next three years and gradually expand its business to the domestic coastal market and start river-sea coordinated transport services.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW Zesheng Shipping Founded by two brothers 11 years ago. Has since teamed up with China's state aviation fuel firm and become one of the leading tanker names on the Yangtze with more than 60 ships, a figure set to grow to 83 in the next three years.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Why this year is a tricky one for China’s offshore builders Jason Jiang sits down with a top name from Cosco Shipyard

rders for offshore rigs have dropped this year as have prices, says the head of one of the leading rig builders in China. Shi Wei, executive director of Cosco Shipyard Group and chief of the offshore division, discusses opportunities and challenges in the market with SinoShip. Cosco Shipyard Group is the shipbuilding division of the state run Cosco Group. It is part of Singapore-listed Cosco Corporation and is made up of six yards dotted across China. With OSVs, jack-ups, FPSOs and plenty more besides under its belt, the group is one of the premier offshore builders in the People’s Republic. Shi is optimistic about the offshore market in the long term, it’s just right now where there’s a headache. “The central government has put offshore development as one of the priorities in terms of national strategy and there will be more domestic investors interested in the sector who choose to order at domestic shipyards. Chinese shipyards’ market share in the offshore market is increasing,” Shi says. Cosco Shipyard didn’t enter the offshore sector until 2006. It currently has 27 offshore projects under construction, including eight offshore accommodation blocks. “According to our research, there are lots of old oil platforms going to be updated and replaced by 2017, which will also bring opportunities to us, and the central government’s support in offshore financing also makes overseas investors place orders at Chinese shipyards,” says Shi. However, Shi admits the company is still facing lots of challenges, noting in particular the general slowdown in orders this year. “Offshore platform operators are slowing

down their orders as the oil companies are temporarily cutting expenditure on the development of oil fields, which has led to a decrease in daily chartering rates, and some oil companies also have postponed the planned bidding of drilling contracts, which means projects under construction are unable to get chartering contracts as expected,” Shi explains. According to Shi, currently there are too many Chinese shipyards joining the competition for offshore orders. “Their expectations for the offshore market are too high, and some of them receive orders under special terms in order to improve their offshore performance,” he says. Shi says prices for offshore products are declining, further squeezing the profit

Offshore platform operators are slowing down their orders as the oil companies are temporarily cutting expenditure

margin of the company. “The cost of financing is increasing as the banks have increased interest rates for offshore financing, and payment terms have worsened. The advance payment percentage has dropped to 10% or even lower from 30% at the end of 2008.” In concluding, Shi says, “A market always has both opportunities and challenges. What we have to do is to find the balance point.”

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW Cosco Shipyard Founded in June 2001, Cosco Shipyard is part of Singaporelisted Cosco Corporation. Its six yards are involved in newbuilds, repair and conversion.

Sinoship Autumn 2014

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LNG ■ ■ ■

Hazy, but skyrocketing

China’s gas figures remain cloudy. However, what’s undeniable is they are growing fast

etting a grip on China’s actual liquefied natural gas (LNG) intentions is very tricky as the nation’s overall energy mix keeps changing in line with fluctuating global prices for different energy types. Nevertheless, what is undeniable is that pollution is a very hot topic among the Chinese, and one that Beijing is very aware it must be seen to be handling, hence why LNG has a bright future. China relies heavily on domestic coal to meet rising energy consumption. Natural gas accounted for only 4.9% of China's total energy consumption in 2012, but large investments in domestic natural gas production and infrastructure, along with growing imports, are changing this figure dramatically. China’s demand for natural gas will more than triple over the next 25 years, according to a new report from the US Energy Information Administration. Natural gas demand in China is projected to hit 17.5trn cu ft in 2040, nearly tripling recent volumes. China’s consumption of natural gas rose at an average annual rate of 17% from 2003 to 2013, reaching nearly 5.7trn cu ft last year. Of this, imported natural gas met 32% of the country’s demand despite domestic

production more than tripling since 2003. The Chinese government anticipates increasing its natural gas share of total energy consumption to around 8% by the end of 2015 and 10% by 2020. China more than tripled natural gas production since 2003, producing 3.8trn cu ft in 2012, and the government is targeting production to reach about 5.5trn cu ft of natural gas per year by the end of 2015. Most of the anticipated production growth is from large onshore fields in the western and north central regions of China as well as from the offshore deepwater regions in the South China Sea. China's natural gas consumption has outstripped domestic supply since 2007, triggering rising imports of both liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas. In 2013, China imported nearly 1.8trn cu ft of LNG and pipeline gas to fill the growing gap between supply and demand. China typically imports between 1.8-2.3bn cu m of

Percentage of natural gas that was imported to China last year, up from 2% in 2006

LNG per month, except in the winter when that spikes above 3bn cu m. Imported natural gas met 32% of China's demand in 2013, up from 2% in 2006. China is swiftly developing its LNG import capacity in the urban coastal areas and currently has 10 major regasification terminals with 1.7trn cu ft per year of capacity. In 2012, China rose to become the third-largest LNG importer in the world, after Japan and South Korea, and in 2013, the country imported 870bn cu ft of LNG. Estimates for the first half of 2014 show LNG imports growing at faster levels than in previous years. China also continues to invest in natural gas pipeline infrastructure that will link production areas in the western and northern regions to demand centres along the coast. China's potential wealth of shale gas, coalbed methane, and coal-to-gas resources has spurred the government to invest and partner with foreign companies that have technical expertise to unlock these reserves. According to EIA estimates, China holds the largest reserves of technically recoverable shale gas in the world, although investors face geological, technical and water resource challenges, regulatory hurdles, transportation constraints, and competition with other fuels. Sinoship Autumn 2014

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LNG ■ ■ ■

Beijing loosens entry barriers China’s LNG transport has been monopolised by state-run entities to date. That’s all set to change

hina is slowly readying to open up its LNG supply chain to non-state run entities. Up until now the industry – both the terminals and the ships – have been run by the big state names in China’s energy and maritime set up. However, as part of a wider bid across

many industries to foster competition and by extension efficiency, private and even foreign firms will be in the mix for the People’s Republic fast growing gas infrastructure. This has already been seen on the shipping front with the likes of Teekay and Mistui OSK Lines forming joint ventures with

Shale gas targets cut Chinese targets for most things are worth taking with a pinch of salt. Beijing’s shale gas ambitions have received a significant dose of reality in recent weeks which bodes well for all those involved in China’s LNG imports business. China recently slashed its 2020 goals for shale gas, a quiet acknowledgement that both natural resources, primarily water, and technology are still lacking to unlock what are deemed the world’s largest reserves of shale gas. The initial goal – to ramp up from zero commercial production of shale gas to 60-80bn cu m by 2020 – was met with scepticism and was always deemed unlikely. Now, the country is back stepping a bit, cutting that goal to 30bn cu m by the

end of the decade and combining it with coal bed methane (CBM). It is worth noting that CBM targets have been repeatedly missed over the years. Natural gas output is growing at a fast clip in China (production in the first half of 2014 was up 7.5% from a year earlier). China produced a total of 116bn cu m of natural gas last year, from all forms of extraction.

Chinese entities to deliver gas. However, it is set to go further whereby there will be no need for joint ventures, sources at the Ministry of Transport tell SinoShip. As it is, new licenses to handle LNG transport are slowly forthcoming. This January CNOOC Yangjiang and Zhejiang Huaxiang Shipping were granted licenses to ship LNG domestically while Tianjin Marine, part of the HNA Group, has inked a letter of intention with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (DSIC) for the construction of four LNG carriers, with capacities ranging from 160,000 cu m to 175,000 cu m. On the terminals front, this is also set to open to greater competition. Currently, China’s first 10 LNG terminals are all state-run. Seah Moon Ming, the chairman of the trade promotion agency known as IE Singapore, went to Shandong province in northeastern China this April, his first overseas trip in the new role. Seah is also ceo of Pavilion Energy, owned by Singapore state-owned investment company Temasek Holdings. He told local media in Singapore that he is looking at the possibility of building liquefied natural gas receiving terminals in Shandong. Other foreign firms are also keen. Sinoship Autumn 2014

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Propulsion ■ ■ ■

No spark SinoShip talks to a couple of local engine manufacturers. Times are clearly tough

lthough the shipbuilding market has started to show positive signs with increasing orders awarded to Chinese yards this year, local marine engine manufacturers are still seeing no signs of recovery. “The inland river shipping market and coastal shipping market are still at a difficult stage, so the market is not really revived for shipbuilders and equipment providers,” says Li De, a senior manager at Weichai Heavy Machinery, a listed subsidiary of Weichai Group, one of the leading manufacturers of medium speed marine engines in China. According to Li, the company’s medium speed marine engine business is still suffering losses, but it is still focusing on the market and has no plans to enter the low speed marine engine market. Weichai is also actively looking into the LNG propulsion market in order to find new growth areas.

CSSC takes over Wärtsilä’s 2-stroke business This July, Wärtsilä and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) signed an agreement to establish a joint venture, which will take over Wärtsilä’s 2-stroke engine business. Through the agreement, CSSC will own 70% of the business through its affiliate CSSC Investment and Development, while Wärtsilä will hold a 30% ownership position. The parties will co-operate in 2-stroke engine technology, marketing, sales, and service activities. The parties have agreed to transfer CSSC’s whole position as shareholder to a joint venture established by an entity connected with the municipal government of Shanghai and CSSC. Responsibility for servicing Wärtsilä’s 2-stroke engines will remain with Wärtsilä Services through its global network. The value of the transaction is

“We have seen the potential in the LNG marine engine market, and we have already developed our own LNG marine engine. We are currently working to complete our LNG propulsion portfolio and will introduce the products at the right time. Currently we have seen the LNG price is on an up trend, so we are not in a rush to enter the market,” Li says. An official from Antai Power, one of the largest private marine engine builders in China, says the company’s marine engine order volume has greatly increased in the first half of this year, but the unit price is still at a low level due to fierce competition in the market. Private engine makers will find it more difficult to survive compared with state-run rivals, he warns.

approximately EUR46m. The closing of the transaction is subject to the required regulatory approvals, which are expected during the first quarter of 2015. The joint venture will be domiciled in Switzerland, and the head office will remain at the present 2-stroke engine headquarters in Winterthur. The current 2-stroke engine business management team will remain in place. The joint venture will assume ownership of Wärtsilä’s 2-stroke engine technology, and will continue to develop and promote sales of the engine portfolio with the full support of both partners. “The objective of the partnership is to combine the strengths of the two partners, both of whom are major players in the global marine sector,” Wärtsilä said in a release. Shortly after the announcement of the new joint venture, Wärtsilä announced that it will divest its shares in Qingdao

Unit prices are still at a low level due to fierce competition

Qiyao Wärtsilä MHI Linshan Marine Diesel (QMD), the joint venture company established for manufacturing large low-speed marine diesel engines. Wärtsilä’s shares in the joint venture will be transferred to the current majority shareholder, Qingdao Qiyao Linshan Power Development Co, a company fully owned by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). QMD will continue to manufacture Wärtsilä low-speed marine engines under license from Wärtsilä via the new joint venture with CSSC.

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Propulsion ■ ■ ■

Power down Beijing’s ambitious targets for LNG-powered ships are way off. Lack of infrastructure is the problem

he Yangtze continues to be the petri dish of China’s LNG fuel experiments. However, a clear bottleneck is visible. Infrastructure needs to be in place before punters are willing to embrace this fuel change. The Ministry of Transport released a subsidy policy in April to promote LNGpowered ships on inland rivers. Shipowners that convert their ships will get financial support ranging from RMB850,000 to RMB1.4m per vessel. The current dilemma shipowners face, though, is the shortage of LNG bunkering facilities.

1,610

Number of LNG-powered ships Beijing was aiming for by next year. Barely 100 are in existence today “The development of LNG-powered ships won’t have a substantial progress by the end of 2015,” says an official from Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Co (WSIC), which is currently building China’s first LNG bunkering vessels. The new bunkering vessels have to come on the market first, he says. Despite the many carrots offered by the Ministry of Transport, gas powered ship development is not proceeding fast enough. The ministry said in earlier plans that it expected 1,610 vessels to switch to LNG power by 2015. However, only 14 vessels have been converted to LNG power, as of the end of July, and less than 100 vessels have been converted to dual fuel since 2012. Shipowners contacted by SinoShip for this article are non-committal about their LNG fuel plans. “Profit is very essential to us,” says an official from Wuhan Jiangyu Shipping Development. “Although the government is offering subsidies, we still don’t know what risk LNG powered ships might bring, we are not prepared to enter this

sector, but we will wait and see.” According to research by the China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, more than half of inland river shipowners have no plans to operate LNG powered ships with just 14% of owners saying they are willing to try LNG propulsion. “The Ministry of Transport is currently working on the relevant safety and technical standards of LNG-powered ships and it is also working with research institutes and universities on the key technologies,” maintains Chen Aiping, head of the Maritime Safety Administration of China. Currently there are four LNG bunkering facilities under construction at three river ports – Nanjing, Wuhan and Wuhu – and more LNG bunkering facilities are waiting for approval. “The LNG bunkering business has huge potential in China, if the government can offer more guidance on the relevant standards and more support policies, the market will see a fast developing period in the next three to five years,” reckons Zhang Yonghua, an official from Jiangsu Haiqi Ganghua Gas Development, an LNG bunkering business established in 2012. It started trial operations of China’s first LNG bunkering facility in Jiangsu last year and has plans to build more.

Perhaps the most eye catching development in recent months has been the news at the start of August that Shanghai Bestway has signed contracts with Green Power Water Transport Co to design and build 200 LNG-powered vessels. Deliveries are scheduled from March next year from Shanghai Bestway’s affiliated shipyard Jiangsu Dajin Heavy Industry. The contracts include one hundred 600 dwt vessels, fifty 800 dwt vessels and fifty 1,000 dwt vessels. The total value of the contracts is about RMB650m. Green Power Water Transport was established in June this year and is dedicated to inland river shipping. Shanghai Bestway and its subsidiary Shanghai Walking LNG hold 25% and 10% respectively in the company.

Caterpillar’s first medium speed engine joint venture CSSC Anqing Kiel Motoren, a joint venture between Anqing CSSC Diesel Engine (ACDE) and Caterpillar, started operations on June 25. The joint venture has already bagged contracts for the construction of 40 Mak brand M25 medium speed marine engines (pictured) and plans to produce 180 marine engines by 2018. The company is the only joint venture of Caterpillar in the field of medium speed engines globally. “The jv will focus on improving production efficiency and management, lowering parts purchase cost, as well as expanding

sales,” says ACDE chairman Zhang Haisen. “When growing to a certain scale in the future, the jv and Caterpillar will develop new models, and enhance the engineering capability of the jv in an effort to support its sustainable development,” Zhang adds.

Sinoship Autumn 2014

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LAW ■ ■ ■

Advice when heading to a Chinese shipyard Bill Amos from Mayer Brown JSM provides readers with a heads up about ordering newbuilds in China and refund guarantees

or a shipowner the process of buying a new vessel from a shipyard can be a hazardous venture, much riskier than buying an existing, second-hand vessel. This is because the shipowner has to part with millions of dollars up front to a shipyard/builder, by way of payment instalments to fund the construction. The shipowner as buyer generally has no mortgage or other security in the ship under construction; all the shipowner has is the refund guarantee issued by the shipyard’s bank, which therefore forms the cornerstone of the entire project. If the shipyard defaults and is obliged to return the shipowner’s instalments, the bank refund guarantee provides the shipowner with the necessary security. Shipowners buying from mainland Chinese shipyards will often receive refund guarantees issued by PRC banks, and may therefore stipulate that the bank guarantee should be subject to Hong Kong law and court jurisdiction. If the mainland bank maintains a Hong Kong branch, any judgment obtained through the Hong Kong court will be enforceable in Hong Kong. The refund guarantee can be one of two types. A ‘traditional’ guarantee creates a coextensive or secondary liability on the part of the bank, meaning in practice that the shipowner must succeed in the underlying shipbuilding contract arbitration. Such traditional guarantees can only be called once the shipowner has obtained an arbitration award upholding his right to cancel the shipbuilding contract and obtain the return of the instalments. The second type of guarantee is the ‘ondemand’ guarantee or bond which, as the name suggests, can be triggered by simply

a written demand from the shipowner. A shipowner with an on-demand guarantee thus has the strongest form of security, giving the right to payment of the funds irrespective of any ongoing arbitration under the shipbuilding contract.

A shipowner with an on-demand guarantee has the strongest form of security In Otto Offshore Ltd v. Bank of Communications the shipowner brought an action in Hong Kong under the bank’s refund guarantee. Separately, the shipyard obtained from the Tianjin court a restraining order/injunction to prevent the bank from making payment under the refund guarantee. The bank applied to the Hong Kong court to stay the Hong Kong court

action, pending the outcome of the Tianjin court proceedings and the underlying shipbuilding contract arbitration. The bank contended that it should not be exposed to the risk that it would either be in breach of (a) the Tianjin restraining order or (b) a Hong Kong court order for payment under the guarantee. Significantly, the Hong Kong court rejected this argument and refused to stay the Hong Kong proceedings. The shipowner had not agreed, or submitted, to the jurisdiction of the Tianjin court. In addition, the Tianjin court restraining order, not being a money judgment, was not recognisable either under the relevant Hong Kong statute or at common law. The Tianjin court therefore did not have jurisdiction over the shipowner to give a judgment capable of being recognised in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong court’s decision upheld both the vital role of the refund guarantee in the shipbuilding process, as well as the parties’ agreement in the guarantee to the jurisdiction of the Hong Kong court. Sinoship Autumn 2014

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Seawork Asia_180x128_Layout 1 21/02/2014 15:37 Page 1

sea亚洲

Commercial Marine and Workboat EXHIBITION & FORUM 4-6 November 2014

Shanghai World Expo Exhibition and Convention Centre, Shanghai, China

Seawork Asia is the first dedicated commercial marine and workboat exhibition based in Shanghai. It is at the heart of this fast growing industry sector and a key meeting point for decision makers. Seawork Asia presents a unique opportunity for organisations to build and maintain their market positions in China and the East Asian region. • Workboat and floating plant design, build, repair and maintenance • Marine equipment • Marine civil engineering and construction • Dredging and coastal development • Marine contracting, vessel and port services

• Marine renewable energy • Commercial diving and underwater services • Safety and training • Staffing, manpower and recruitment • Marine finance, insurance and legal maritime

For information about Seawork Asia 2014, contact the Events team: International Sales Nova Abbott Tel: +44 1329 825335 nabbott@seaworkasia.com

China Sales Daisy Chen Tel: +86 021 31220169 daisy@seaworkasia.com

Produced by Seawork Exhibition (Shanghai) Company Limited An MML joint venture project SUPPORTED BY

info@seaworkasia.com / www.seaworkasia.com

LAW ■ ■ ■

Rules relating to the provision of cross-border security are relaxed Ince & Co’s Vincent Xu on a significant change at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) likely to be welcomed by shipowners everywhere

he provisions on the administration of foreign exchange for cross-border security, published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in China replace 12 existing regulations providing for crossborder security. Reflecting a huge step forward by SAFE, the new regulations apply to and regulate all kinds of cross-border security structures, including the following three categories, which are based on the places of registration of the parties: i. Nei Bao Wai Dai or Outbound Security, where the security provider is registered onshore (i.e. Chinese), and the obligor and the creditor are both registered offshore; thus, for example, where a guarantee is given, only the guarantor is Chinese. ii. Wai Bao Nei Dai or Offshore Security, where the security provider is registered offshore, but the obligor/debtor and the creditor are both registered onshore (i.e. Chinese); using the same example again, where a guarantee is given, the guarantor is not Chinese, but both the other parties are. iii. Any other types of cross-border security in which one of the creditor and debtor is onshore (Chinese) but the other is offshore, and thus the cross-border element is between these two parties; the security provider may be either onshore or offshore.

The new regulations offer flexibility, certainty and accessibility

•

• The main changes are as follows: • The validity of any cross-border security agreement is no longer subject to SAFE approval, registration, filing or other SAFE administrative requirements. A

•

security agreement would include, for example, a mortgage, pledge, guarantee or standby letter of credit. In relation to (i) Outbound Security and (ii) Offshore Security, the previous system of quota management and pre-approval has been replaced with a requirement for registration of the security following its execution. Prior approval of the security is not required. For (iii), any other types of cross-border security, no registration or filing is required. The distinction in the administrative schemes regarding security for finance purposes and security for non-finance purposes has been abandoned. This means that banks are no longer subject to any quota management in relation to security for finance purposes. Individuals are now explicitly permitted to provide Outbound Security by reference to the corresponding rules applicable to non-banking institutions. SAFE approval on the enforcement of security is abolished.

In practice, these changes mean: • In relation to charterparties, where, for example, a Chinese guarantor provides to a foreign shipowner a parent guarantee of performance by the charterer of a charterparty, if (a) the charterer is a foreign company, the guarantor must register the guarantee with SAFE within 15 days but if (b) the charterer is a domestic Chinese company then the guarantee will be characterised as (iii) above, “any other type” of cross-border guarantee and will not require any form of filing, registration or approval. • For an English P&I Club providing a guarantee, then (a) if this is directly to a Chinese company as claimant on behalf of a foreign shipowner then no registration will be required but (b) if it is provided on behalf of a Chinese shipowner this will fall within type (ii) above and will require registration. • In relation to refund guarantees, the position is as follows: at present, where a Chinese yard is obliged under a shipbuilding contract to procure a refund guarantee from a Chinese bank, that Chinese bank will file general information of that guarantee (and any material amendment to it) with SAFE on a monthly basis as part of a risk management requirement, although prior SAFE approval is not required, nor is SAFE registration. Under the new regulations, that position would appear to be unchanged. We expect that these new regulations will be warmly welcomed by the international market, offering, as they do, flexibility, certainty and accessibility when using cross-border security. Sinoship Autumn 2014

■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Soaring costs could dampen ambition Shanghai is getting ever more expensive. Could it price itself out of the market, asks Zoe Li? Shanghai is rapidly climbing the ranks as an expensive place to live in. Could its soaring costs hamper its intentions to be an international finance and maritime centre by 2020, a goal that has been set by Beijing seven years ago? A survey on costs of living by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) found Shanghai as more expensive than New York Many mainland cities are moving up in the rankings due to higher wages, rising inflation and the appreciation of the renminbi. The most expensive among them is Shanghai, which rose to the 21st spot worldwide. For Shanghai to prosper as an international maritime

centre (IMC) it will need plenty of foreign expertise and investment. Rising costs combined with a poor environment might detract from getting the best talent available. Another list recently out, compiled by Mercer’s ranks 211 cities on costs for expatriates. Shanghai ranked tenth worldwide in this list. Ed Hannibal, a partner at Mercer’s, commented: “While multinationals continue to recognize the importance of having a global workforce and corporate assignments remain prevalent, they must be able to monitor and balance the cost of their expatriate programs.

Shanghai has the hunger as well as the landmass 34

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Employers need to evaluate the impact of currency fluctuations, inflation, and political instability when sending employees on overseas assignments while ensuring they retain talented employees by offering competitive compensation packages.” Many believe cargo is king and Shanghai will propel its way to the top regardless of how pricey it becomes to live there, with plenty of analysts pointing out that Singapore, arguably the world’s most busy shipping hub these days, ranked number one on the EIU’s cost of living list. One supply chain consultant, Russel Beron, who recently moved to Hong Kong after a long stint in Shanghai tells SinoShip: “ My opinion is that the cost of living will not impact whether or not Shanghai becomes a maritime centre. If

you look at Hong Kong, the cost of living is much higher and it is still a top shipping centre. China is still by far the world's largest exporter and will remain so for a long time, so it would make sense for it to have an international maritime centre.” Beron reckons that other issues such as government policies, high tax rates, how easy it is to do business are more likely to have an impact than living costs. Shanghai ranked second behind Singapore in a poll conducted by our sister site, Maritime CEO, at the start of the year on which city will be the most vibrant maritime hub in five years time. Among the respondents there was much chat in favour of Shanghai. “Singapore will try to hold on to the title, but Shanghai has the hunger as well as the landmass to make it happen,” one voter wrote, while another suggested: “Shanghai, with its access to the Pacific and the industrial hinterland of Chongqing via the Yangtze is definitely the place to watch.” Another respondent said Shanghai could be top of the pile, but only if it manages to keep its pollution down.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

LATE SHOW Legislators failure to agree to new trade zones will hamper progress at Kaohsiung Port

Political impasse stalls port plans The introduction of so-called Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs) across the island is on hold for the time being, writes David Green Political machinations are hampering Taiwan’s efforts to improve the competitiveness of its ports, after a key freetrade bill stalled in the national parliament this summer. Progress of a bill proposing the introduction of so-called Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs) at Taiwan’s six major ports and its international airport slowed to a crawl in June after the opposition Democratic Progressive Party insisted the bill be reviewed on an articleby-article basis. A hearing managed to address just four of the bill’s 73 articles before being adjourned amid protests from students claiming the ruling Kuomintang party was attempting to steamroll the bill through the legislature. The FEPZs aim to offer tax incentives for Taiwanese businesses repatriating profits for reinvestment in the zones, businesses in the agricultural and industrial raw materials processing sectors, as well

as on goods exported after storage. The plan targets high value-added service industries, particularly smart logistics, international health care, value-added agriculture, as well as financial and educational services. If successfully enacted, the proposal initially targeted an increase in private investment of NT$21bn ($701m) this year alone, with trade value earmarked to touch $NT1trn in 2015.

Singapore and South Korea. The focus on smart logistics could be a particular boon for freight forwarders, as could the potential to integrate basic manufacturing capabilities at the ports, and both have been widely welcomed by groups including the International Ocean Freight Forwarders & Logistics Association, the largest logistics industry association in Taiwan. “All of Taiwan’s six free-trade harbours focus on specific

The zones are seen as crucial to Taiwan’s attempts to join regional free-trade agreements The zones are also seen as crucial to Taiwan’s attempts to join regional free-trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as well as its effort to compete with rival ports on the mainland, Hong Kong,

logistics services depending on their geographical locations and port characteristics,” says Andrew Chen of the Taiwan International Ports Corporation (TIPC). “The FEPZs’ potential to facilitate basic metals processing services could have a significant impact at Kaohsiung Port,

which since November last year has been operating as a goods delivery point for primary aluminum, aluminum alloy, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc from the London Metal Exchange,” Chen adds. Kaohsiung is already pressing ahead with land sales to steel and metals processing firms at an existing manufacturing park in the Nanxing Development Zone, while Taipei Port in spring sold land parcels earmarked for a wood pulp logistics centre and a support facility for the assembly and export of wind turbines. Anping Port, which focuses on value-added agriculture and bulk goods, would also stand to benefit if the FEPZ plan is approved, while Su-ao focuses on green energy, and Taichung on oil blending. Smoother customs procedures are also expected at the FEPZs under a legal revision that will allow forwarders to sidestep customs brokers and independently declare manifests, improving clearance times, according to Chen. “The revision will also lower forwarders’ transhipment costs and enhance the convenience of cargo consolidation, attracting more forwarders to operate in Taiwan’s ports.” However, there remains substantial corporate and political opposition to the FEPZ proposals. The local industry is concerned that foreign investment, particularly in the agricultural sector from mainland firms, could damage domestic competitiveness. “I think we will have to wait until after municipal elections in late November, when we have the election of seven kinds of local people’s representatives,” says Chiu Rong-Her, an assistant professor of shipping and business logistics management at National Taiwan Ocean University. “The issue will be shelved until then when we know which political leaders will be able to solve the problem.” Sinoship Autumn 2014

HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Where the city ranks in global ship finance Hong Kong’s place as the preeminent Asian centre for ship finance has faded, writes Alfred Romann Banks are getting back into the ship financing business and Hong Kong is full of banks. Almost by default, banks in the city should be financing more ships now than at any time in the past few years. “Hong Kong has always been one of the major ship finance centres in the world,” says David Cheng, honorary chairman at Credit Agricole Ship Finance Asia. There are several reasons for this, including the fact that capital can flow easily through the city and that shipowners have long congregated here as a result of the city’s role as a focal point for trade and its large and busy port, not to mention the many incentives the city has always offered to businesses. Unfortunately for Hong Kong, this particular piece of the business is a bit more complicated and is rarely dependent on a particular location. For banks, ship finance is a regional business. In broad

strokes, banks are just as happy to finance a ship in Hong Kong as in Singapore (or Tokyo or Shanghai or Seoul). “Ship finance is a regional business so sometimes it is difficult to say who provides more,” says Cheng. “There is not sufficient business for a bank to operate in shipping finance just in one city.” Rather, banks take a regional approach. Most banks separate this particular piece of business in terms of larger regions, like Asia Pacific. Banks, of which Hong Kong has an overabundance, are getting back into the business carefully. Some, like HSBC, are more likely to rely on existing relationships rather than focus on the ship finance business as a whole. Others are willing to finance ships but to lower levels of leverage than in the past. The days when a shipowner was able to finance as much as 80% or more of the value of a ship are gone. Banks are now

more cautious and are more likely to finance 60 or 65% of a ship value. This is partly a result of an ongoing problem of oversupply in the industry. In a market survey of shipping companies through the second quarter of 2014, HSH Nordbank found 73% of respondents (mostly in Germany) believe the container vessel segment has the largest amount of overcapacity. Another 39% of respondents say bulkers have the largest overcapacity. The reality is that there is

In broad strokes, banks are just as happy to finance a ship in Hong Kong as in Singapore (or Tokyo or Shanghai or Seoul)

overcapacity in most segments and that is unlikely to resolve itself soon judging by the current global orderbook. “In two years time there is a lot of tonnage coming online,” says Cheng. So banks are more likely to limit who they do business with to the companies and people that they know well and whom they feel know the business of shipping. But many banks are considering moving elsewhere and this is threatening Hong Kong’s position as a ship finance centre. Competition is coming from several areas. Singapore, for one, is working hard to attract more business in all sectors, not just shipping. It has been offering incentives for companies to locate their offices there and has been making it easier to invest. This has attracted commercial principals, such as shipowners. In turn, it has also attracted the service providers that follow these principals such as the banks that provide the financing that the principals need to carry out their business. Shanghai still trails but the growth of the industry in China has made it easier for the city to emerge as a finance centre for the shipping industry. Tokyo is a large player but one that is dominated by a rather large domestic industry. Seoul is also a relatively important ship finance centre thanks to the Korean shipping industry but it trails the others in the region. The government is aware of the challenges that the industry is facing. A report on enhancing the city’s role as an international maritime centre was released in April and highlights the city’s positioning in the sector but also points out that the city needs to strengthen its shipping related institutions, including finance, and put more human resources to developing the sector. Sinoship Autumn 2014

■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Asia and its energy needs Paul French pumps through a series of oil themed titles

SAND TREASURE China is becoming the Middle East’s top trading partner Just what will Asia’s energy needs be in the future? It’s a big question but one it behoves us all in international shipping to try and work out, especially when you consider that, according to America’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), about half of the world's oil production moves on maritime routes. The EIA recently raised its 2014 and 2015 average price estimates for crude oil, gasoline and natural gas by a few dollars a barrel and thermal unit. Perhaps some analysts have the answers? In Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan: Policy Scenarios and Implications (Lexington Books, 2014), George Eberling argues that the future oil demands of China, India and Japan will result in intense competition for scarce energy resources. Eberling argues that China's rising dependence on imported oil will mean the PRC will try to become the dominant actor in world energy affairs in the near future. Already China is sourcing more oil from the 38

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Near and Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. This global quest for the black gold will only increase as China’s dependency on imports sharpens. Muhammad Olimat, a professor at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates, goes somewhat further and argues in his book, China and the Middle East: from Silk Road to Arab Spring (Routledge, 2013), that oil is the central driver in all relations between the Arab world and China. He argues, "The core of Sino-Saudi relations is oil, while Iran and China are tied with deep historical, civilizational, cultural and political relations, but China’s current interests in Iran centre on oil." Olimat contends that if China is taking an interest in anything else in the region, notably the Arab Spring

movements, then it is primarily in terms of how it will affect China’s oil trading relations with those nations as Beijing seeks to up exports from the Middle East. Ben Simpfendorfer, a former investment bank analyst in Hong Kong and now a partner in the consultancy, Silk Road Associates, neatly put the case for China’s growing relationship with the Arab world – both political, financial and oil trading – in his widely influential first book The New Silk Road in 2011 (Palgrave Macmillan). Since then China’s reliance on Middle East oil has only grown and affected everything from world barrel prices, as China has become a major buyer in a market previously largely selling to Europe and America, to anti-piracy activities in the

The PRC will try to become the dominant actor in world energy affairs in the near future

Malacca Straits. Simpfendorfer continues his analysis of the growing inter-linkage of the East, Middle and Far, in his new book The Rise of the New East: Business Strategies for Success in a World of Increasing Complexity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014). It’s not just about China anymore, but also about the growing consumer power of other Asian nations, particularly Indonesia, and how that will drive oil demand from Southeast Asia too. Across the region the three key themes of urbanisation, the rise of the middle class and local resource scarcity will drive oil demand and import shipments over the next two decades. Finally, Sam Tranum’s Powerless: India's Energy Shortage and Its Impact (Sage Publications, 2014) reminds us starkly that India will have to compete increasingly with China for oil if its growth trajectory is to continue. Tranum, a journalist based for some years in Kolkota, argues that India (even compared to China) is starved of most of the resources it needs to grow its energy base to support industrial development – oil, as well as coal, gas and uranium. Tranum estimates the energy supply-demand gaps are 75% for oil, 49% for natural gas, 56% for uranium, 35% for electricity and 15% for coal with only minimal domestic reserves of most power-related commodities. Just as in China importing energy, be it coal, oil or gas, will continue and grow, argues Tranum. Quite simply, he says, "Current renewable technologies and resources cannot bridge India’s supplydemand gaps." For the foreseeable future it seems oil will continue to voyage east from the Arab world in greater and greater quantities.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Try being accommodating Seafarers deserve a decent living environment, and shipowners will reap the benefit with a happy crew, argues Bei Hong Different parts of the world have differing approaches to taking vacations, but the general rule seems to be that the summer months are a bit slower from a business point of view as many people head off on a well deserved break from the daily grind. This is particularly true in the West. In the US, the onset of the ‘driving season’ brings about optimism in tanker markets (usually unfounded) that gasoline demand will prompt a spike in rates. In Europe, a vast migration south takes place with roads such as the wonderfully named ‘Autoroute du Soleil’ in France choked with holiday traffic. Many travellers choose to break their journey at one of the budget hotels sited alongside major roads. These establishments offer small, utilitarian accommodation with no more than the absolute basics – somewhere to sleep but certainly not somewhere you would want to spend any more time than is absolutely necessary. The last time I stayed in such an establishment, I couldn’t help thinking that this cost effective lodging solution was not dissimilar to the cabins our seafarers live in. The difference, of course, is that whilst I was there merely to grab a few hours sleep before hitting the road again, for the seafarer it was home for anything up to nine months. Of all the advances made in shipping in recent years, be they improving efficiency, safety or environmental protection, one area where we seem to have gone backwards is the environment we expect our crews to live in. I recently went onboard a 16-year-old containership,

which had been built at a Korean yard for a European owner. What struck me more than anything was the quality of the accommodation - spacious, well thought out and with fixtures and fittings that showed that someone had really put some thought into designing a space for people to live and work in for extended periods. The Master told me that whilst he had originally had reservations about joining such a vintage ship, these were quickly dispelled when he saw his new ‘home’. The ships being churned out today at such alarmingly frequent levels seem to ensure that regulations regarding living space are met but make little, if any, consideration to making a pleasant working and living environment. The ubiquitous formica and other ‘wipe clean’ surfaces, combined with the ‘off white’ panels which seem to

be present in every accommodation block are certainly user friendly in terms of ease of maintenance and keeping them clean, but they are not really an environment you want to hang around in. It’s unreasonable to expect the united nations which constitutes so many crews today to all become best friends, but providing an environment where people want to spend time will lead to more of that crucial element which binds people together – communication. Read British author Horatio Clare’s excellent book Down To The Sea In Ships and you get a clear picture of why it’s important to have a gathering point for socialising when the work day is over. The ship’s bar on an old containership may now be ‘dry’ with not a drop to drink, but at least it remains a meeting point for the crew, rather than scurrying back to their cabins with a pot of instant

noodles and a DVD to stick in their laptop. In my days as a shipbroker, I recall selling ships for one particular owner where the list of items excluded from the sale often ran to several pages, primarily made up of a list of paintings and items bearing the house flag together with a long inventory of all the books in the ship’s library. You only had to look at that list and think that off-duty hours on this ship had the potential to be quite pleasurable. Today, an excluded items list rarely extends to much more than the rented gas bottles. The Maritime Labour Convention has noble aims to improve the lot of the seafarer, but shipbuilders and the owners who order new ships can help provide the basis of a happy crew who want to return to their ship with a bit more attention on providing a pleasant living environment. Sinoship Autumn 2014

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P51438SEASHIPNEWS-AUG

OPINION ■ ■ ■

The decline of the privateer, 2014 style Andrew Craig-Bennett details the hardships now faced by private maritime security companies When I was six, I lived with my parents in Mogadishu. It was a delightful place to be a little boy. One day a man with a big black beard and tattoos came to stay in the spare bedroom. He was a Royal Navy petty officer, landed ashore to the hospital with acute appendicitis, rescued, to convalesce after his operation, by my ex-RN father. His ship was on anti-piracy patrol. Two things we never thought we would see again, some years ago, were wars of religion and private warships. We were wrong on both counts. Wars of religion are doing well, but privateering may soon have had its day. One large British provider of armed security guards for merchant ships has just gone into liquidation. There are very definite rumours that this company may have been the first, but it almost certainly will not be the last of the armed guard providers to go bust. There are quite a number of self-employed

people sitting around with guns with money due to them. The number of companies in the business has increased, and the perceived risk has decreased. Shipowners and particularly charterers, faced with lots of competitors, have reacted in the usual way, by haggling the price down, because they no longer expect their ships to be attacked. At the same time, we have what I might term the ‘antivaxxers’ – those shipping companies – particularly some of the large containerlines – who are now running ships through with no armed guards onboard, relying on the pirates assuming that they will have guards, because most ships do. The effect has been a

reduction in the income of the guard companies, whilst their cost structures have been unable to adjust. I would expect those companies who are operating ships themselves to be the hardest hit, as they have the highest levels of fixed cost. Their ships are often described as ‘escort vessels’ but more often they are actually used as accommodation vessels, for guards and their arms, at each end of the High Risk Zone, thus allowing guards to carry military type weapons, which would not be permitted through customs without military type paperwork, to join and to disembark from ships without going ashore, thus avoiding customs and immigration altogether and saving a fortune in agency costs and

There are a number of self-employed people sitting around with guns with money due to them

hotel bills – provided there are only a few men sitting onboard doing nothing. Those companies that regularly land their men are carrying less fixed costs and are in a somewhat better position to bend with the wind of fortune. The bigger operations often have other sidelines, like providing personal security for the obscenely rich, both with and without yachts, and they will fall back on those. We may observe in passing that Parkinson’s Law applies. Bureaucracy expands to fill the space available, and is now so perfect that my company was recently grilled at length, taking a couple of hours of our time, because one guard on one ship, flown out in a hurry as a relief, was missing one bit of paper. My favourite story of the whole security thing will remain the account, given to me, deadpan, by a delightful man, of the ‘security services’ variety, about a Russian oligarch who wished to send his not small yacht through the Red Sea, quite early on in the business. He was able, let us not enquire how, to obtain the services of a Russian warship to accompany his gin palace, and, to ensure that the grey ship stayed close by, he instructed the yacht’s stewardesses to sunbathe, topless, on the upper deck, throughout the transit. Sinoship Autumn 2014

■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ SKYFALL Typhoon season in Hong Kong 香港台风季节 ©

André Eichman

2015 MEDIA KIT

bringing you people, not press releases

2014年秋季刊

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“我本会做的不同” 苏信吉独家采访

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目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 5 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 15 物流

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 16 陈建华 17 苏信吉 18 任泽友 19 施炜

■ ■ ■ 专题

作为一个国家，中国只能从产能过剩和总体偏低的运费率中获益

预付定金较低很有吸引力，很多融资不确定性可以消除，从而为船厂带来更多订单。 — CBI-MMEER 主席 Evan Claar

不论市场呈现怎样的增长态势，都不会持续很长时间 — Today Makes Tomorrow 董事长苏信吉

20 液化天然气 23 动力 26 法律

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 28 上海 29 台湾 30 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论

— BW集团主席Helmut Sohmen博士

我们依然面临一系列严峻挑战，包括市场竞争日趋激烈以及环境日益恶化 — 泽胜集团共同创始人任泽友

31 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见 32 Max Hong 33 A ndrew Craig-Bennett

石油公司短期内削减油田开发支出，使得海工平台运营商下订单的速度有所放缓。 — 中远船务常务副总经理施炜

19 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

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KVH, TracPhone, IP-MobileCast, 和独特的浅色天线罩以及形成对比的黑色基板为KVH Industries，Inc的注册商标。 mini-VSAT宽带是KVH Industries, Inc的服务标志

编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京上海香港大连广州台北

Li Deng Bai Colin Shek Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei David Green

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室，邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 销售主管 Helen Ong helen@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705。设计 Tigersoft Pte Ltd 印刷香港雅联印刷有限公司订阅总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期刊。对于所有其他公司，订阅 S i n o S h i p 2 014 年 4 期需要收费10 0 美元。订阅每月发行两次的 P D F 格式的 S i n o S h i p电子新闻（包含独家新闻、数据和分析）需收费5 0 0 美元。订阅咨询请发送邮件到 su b s@ asiashippingmedia.com。版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2014 为确保本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努力，但出版社对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以任何形式或方式传输。

在中央政府的幕后游说大约三年前，之所以决定创立SinoShip是因为知道中国已成为货运界的龙头老大，并且很可能会继续努力成为海运领域真正的主导力量— —在这一点上它确实没有令人失望。今年夏初，中国再次向世界展示了它在船运方面的实力— —人们最好习惯于这种情况；中国的发展势头已不可逆转。中国粉碎了三家集装箱运输巨头马士基 (Maersk)、地中海航运 (MSC) 和法国达飞海运 (CMA CGM) 提议成立的 P3 大联盟，这与中国曾阻止巴西矿业公司计划在中国部署巨大的400,000载重吨散货船如出一辙。除了政府部委颁发的官方公告外，这两个事件的联系纽带就是中国船东协会 (CSA) 的首席海运说客。为了将其会员的观点完整地传达给政府，中国船东协会在幕后做了许多努力。尽管马士基保证一切已经准备就绪，可以顺利开始将其P3计划替换为与地中海航运签订的船舶共享协议 (VSA) 2M，但中国船东协会针对提议的船舶共享协议做出了一些公开评论，为这两家航运公司的欧洲总部带来了一丝担忧。但对于中国船东协会及其领先的国营成员和政府而言，这仍是一个非常顺利且互利互惠的办法。在遭受多年的重大损失后，中央政府明确表示，只有在各大航运公司愿意合作的前提下，国家才会继续投入资金。此后我们看到，我国最大的集装箱运输公司齐聚到特定航线，最近招商局和中国外运长航集团还建立了油轮合作伙伴关系。并非每个人都乐于见到这种强制实施的契约关系，但正如许多小型船东后来在一封公开信中明确表示的那样，现正合作运营中国–日本航线的中远集运、中国海运集团和中国外运集团对这一细分市场已控制得过多。作为此项讨论的补充，有一天我与BW集

团的主席Helmut Sohmen聊天时，他道出了一个关于中国航运业崛起的有趣观点。中国在其总体航运规划上在采用放长线战略，Sohmen在讨论到中国日益增长的造船产能，进出口量，以及在船东行业的投资时说道。 “让我们面对这个事实吧，” 他说， “ 作为一个国家，中国只能从产能过剩和总体偏低的运费率中获益。” 中国已顺利踏上成为最强大商业船运国的道路，但在它登顶的过程中肯定会波澜重重。

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 经济

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经济 ■ ■ ■

相关主管机构称第三季度出口有望增长10%

服务业推动增长，但出口正在复苏 Paul French认为，其他国家会对中国7.6%的GDP增长率感到振奋在将近30年的时间内，中国出口额一直受到制造业的驱动。全球金融危机确实造成出口订单减少，但几乎与此同时，中国国内市场迅猛发展，渴望花钱的中国购物客在萧条时期频繁出击。造成这一差异的原因，是因为中央政府推出了鼓励相关行业发展的经济刺激计划。但是，由于海外订单尚未恢复至2008年前的水平，且国内的消费需求基本保持稳定，因而制造业目前正遭受重创，发展速度将减缓。中央政府已宣布，不会再推出新一轮经济刺激计划，但可能重新思考这一决定。实际上，中国已宣布推出所谓的“迷

你刺激计划”— — 国务院4 月份概述了一项侧重于铁路、低收入家庭住房建设及减税的支出计划，旨在为经济增长提供支持。作为稳定产能扩张并调整国家能源结构的相关举措的组成部分，许多重大能源项目将纷纷上马，随着可能的投资需求，将来可能出现更多的激励措施。制造业减速的连锁反应揭示出：对中国而言，制造东西是多么重要 — —人民币兑美元汇率已下滑，4月份达到 2012年12月以来的最低值。不过，增长仍是大势所趋— — 根据国家统计局发布的数据，2014年第一季度中国经济

同比增长7.4%。国务院总理李克强认为，7.5%的数据有两层含义。一方面，它指的是中国可以实现的增长率；另一方面，它预示着中国不会再推出新一轮经济刺激计划。目前北京使

中国 — GDP预测年份

GDP增幅(%)

2013 2014 2015 2016

7.7 7.6 7.5 7.2

来源：世界银行

中国出口需求增长是全球增长强劲反弹的风向标

用频率极高的一个词汇（也许令人回想起戈登·布朗担任英国财政大臣和首相的时期）是 “谨慎”。对中国经济来说，长期更令人担忧的事情是，尽管欧美经济正在复苏，但新增订单仍持续减少。据估计，只有等到中国的主要出口市场完成复苏，出口订单才会恢复至经济衰退前的水平。但这似乎又与现实情况不符。根据中国海关总署的数据，中国出口额4月份同比下滑 6 . 6 %。这可能是暂时的— —欧美经济的复苏，可能看到的是商店在清理未出售的存货，然后再予以补货；但也可能说明订单正流向东南亚和南亚、拉丁美洲地区以及欧洲周围的国家（北非、土耳其），这些国家目前的制造和物流成本都要低于中国。这一切均说明，目前我们要面临新的现实。中国一直期望订单能恢复至之前的强劲势头，但考虑到中国高企不下的成本、各种替代性采购运营以及略显疲弱的国内市场，全球金融危机后，中国的形势已经剧变，再也不会重现2008年前的美好旧时光了。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

运部门作为独立公司注册，并有可能在未来上市。

中国船东协会 (CSA) 的实力再次得到验证。该组织说服中央政府禁止淡水河谷超大型矿砂船在中国停靠，也是阻碍马士基航运、地中海航运和法国达飞海运成立 P3 集装箱联盟的幕后推手。中国船东协会现在还在游说主管部门，试图阻止马士基航运和地中海航运之间签订船舶共享协议 2M。另一方面，在纷纷扰扰的国内局势中，几家小型中国航运公司正在冲击由所谓的 C3 集团造成的市场不平衡现象。C3 集团由中国远洋、中海集运和中国外运组成，他们联合运营日本航线的集装箱服务。

中国外运长航集团的内部重组终于迈出了实质性的一步。该集团建立了专门的海运部门，将旗下所有运输组织合而为一，办公地点设在上海。中国外运长航有望于今年底将海

中海集运对于集团中 1,344 名管理人员启动了一项内部纪律调查。集团将严惩任何在本职工作之外经营个人业务的人员。今年 6 月，国家审计署发布了对该集团的审计结果，指出公司违反了多项财政法规。

中海油轮运输有限公司共向中化集团和上海航运集团支付了 16.6 亿人民币，获得上海北海船务 40% 的股权。北海船务主要在国内沿海港口和长江内河港口之间提供石化产品运输服务。它目前运营着八艘自有油轮和四艘租赁油轮。

中国的反贪行动声势浩大，大连一家大型运输公司受到波及。海昌集团是一家多元化集团企业，涉足房地产、石油、旅游和运输等业务，国际审计署批评该集团滥用当地政府给予的资金。海昌是中国大型私营油轮企业之一，它将本该用

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

希腊的超大型液化气运输船 (VLGC) 企业 Dorian LPG 宣布，公司已经与海南航空物流公司签署谅解备忘录 (MOU)，开发液化气物流市场的潜在机遇。

香港明升集团与中国船舶重工集团公司 (CSIC) 签署了十座自升式平台的协议。合约总价值约为 100 亿人民币。

大连的新运输公司恒力海运，向江苏海通海洋工程公司订购了十艘 15,000 载重吨的散货船，现已收到第一艘交付的船只。其余船只将于今年底交付。恒力海运是恒力集团的运

输分公司。恒力集团是一家跨多个行业的企业，业务涉足石化、工程塑料、房地产和金融等领域。

东森国际 (EMI) 是一家台湾企业，从事散货运输、旅游、数字媒体和房地产业务，该公司正在考虑在当前租约到期后退出海运领域。根据东森国际总裁廖尚文的说法，一艘海峡型散货船的租约将于 2016 年 4 月到期，另外 12 艘巴拿马型散货船的租约将在 2019 年底之前逐步到期。廖尚文称公司将不再延长这些租约，并希望退出海运领域，专注于媒体、电子商务和贸易业务。

在上海证交所上市的跨行业集团东方国际，正计划通过子公司上海新海航业公司扩展散货运输业务。公司宣布，计划在未来三到五年的时间里，筹资约 10 亿人民币扩展上海新海航业公司的散货船队，并已经瞄准了七艘二手散货船。新海航业公司目前拥有三艘散货船。

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos i w.s ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

于购买外国技术的资金购买了法国的葡萄园。目前，海昌在法国拥有超过 10 座葡萄园。

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

接触正确客户群体的机会 Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

大中华区每一家主要船东和造船厂都在读这本杂志关于2015年计划的媒体包已经可以在 www.asiashippingmedia.com查阅广告咨询请联系 grant@asiashippingmedia.com

Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

船厂 ■ ■ ■

“白名单是确保让其他造船厂淡出市场的途径” 北京针对造船厂未来融资资格设立严格的新标准

有消息称工业和信息化部（工信部）已决定制定一份造船厂“白名单”，之后中国将继续努力克服其造船厂产能过剩的问题，并且很可能开始新一轮的合并。那些未能登上白名单的造船厂要想获得金融机构的贷款将很困难。现金渠道将被关闭，造船厂的供应将受到抑制，或者至少有这个意图。按照现有情况，全球造船厂的供应能力约为 10,000 万总吨，至少是实际需求的两倍，中国认为罪魁祸首就是过去 10 年造船厂产能的极端增长。

工信部要求造船厂提交根据以下多种因素编制的报告：当前订单、生产设施的状态、研发情况、质量控制机制和环保措施。然后根据政府设立的标准对此进行权衡。这些公司将按照订单储备、新订单和最近产量得到评估。若要生存下来，造船厂必须在最后期限（人们认为是今年年底）前尽可能多地吸收订单，因此当前中国很多造船厂都纷纷提供有吸引力的价格和可用的交付时段。但正如分析人士警告的那

样，该白名单很可能被篡改：由于担心造船厂停业可能带来混乱，地方当局有可能会夸大当地造船厂的统计数据，以确保这些造船厂能登上白名单。此外，专家坚信中国造船厂的虚拟订单已达到高峰，并将一直持续到年底。

中国前六个月的新订单增长

78.2%

中国政治咨询机构 8 月份召开了一次会议，讨论中国造船业的发展和产能过剩问题，并再次提到了白名单理念，建议仅向有能力的公司提供资金。中央政府官员过去曾警告称，他们打算效仿韩国造船业的发展，韩国是 8 到 10 个大型船厂负责绝大多数订单；中国的最终目标是让不到 30 个巨型船厂竞争绝大多数订单。香港一位造船业分析师表示： “白名单是确保让其他造船厂淡出市场的途径。” 中国船舶工业行业协会会长张广钦认为产能在他任职期间已达到顶峰。 “产能基础设施已达到顶峰。中国船厂不应再依赖于过去的业务投资战略来扩大产能和资产，”八月中旬张广钦对当地媒体说道。未来几年，合并将继续，他补充道。尽管处于艰难时期，但上半年的数字显示中国在商业船只和海工订单方面都达到了全球最高水平。前六个月，中国船厂共赢得 4,080万载重吨船舶订单，与去年同期相比增长78.2%。全国订单储备增至15,210万载重吨，与去年同期相比增长39.5%。除此之外，全国海工订单也取得了 79 亿美元的成绩。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

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离岸 ■ ■ ■

揭秘中海油的FLNG抱负各家造船厂争抢价值数十亿元的大型离岸合同，竞争在所难免，Sam Chambers撰文今年7月，当中国的能源巨头中国海洋石油公司 (CNOOC) 宣布修建一座浮式天然气液化存储装置 (FLNG) 供南中国海使用时，人们似乎可以听到来自黄海对岸的叹息。这是中国企业为打入迄今为止一直由韩国造船厂所占据领地迈出的另一步。 FLNG船是一种海上液化设备，能够放置在能源储备上方，使开采出的天然气冷却，并装入 LNG 油轮进行交付。对于那些使用海底管道太偏远或太小的油田来说，这项技术使它们开展生产成为可能。中海油的深水工程首席研究员谢彬最近在一个研讨会上透露： “在有争议的水域，我们需要自给自足，因为不能期待任何邻国给予岸上支持。”谢彬指的是中国最近越来越深入南海，在有争议的区域勘探石油和天然气，激怒了邻国。公司目前正在进行预先可行性研究，并与国际工程公司探讨联合设计船舶的可能性。根据中海油一名官员的说

法，目标是开发年处理能力达 240 万吨天然气、能在 1500 米深处作业的 FLNG 设备。中海油先前宣布，公司的研发部门与两所中国大学合作设计了一个小型 FLNG 船，天然气年处理能力达到约 5000 吨。

中国船舶工业行业协会秘书长王锦连称，对于建造此类浮式液化设备所需的任何国内制造工作，政府已经准备好为研发提供资金，并提供税收优惠。全球目前约有 10 个 FLNG 设备处于规划阶段，并有几个正

CIMC加码融资业务世界上第一艘压缩天然气 (CNG) 船订单来自于印尼国有企业 Perusahaan Listrik Negara的子公司 Pelayaran Bahtera Adhiguna。这艘船将在中国建造，入级美国船级社 (ABS) ，有人猜测是青岛武船重工赢得了合约。这艘压缩天然气船由中国中集集团海洋工程设计研究院设计。 PT PLN 的第一艘压缩天然气船长 110 米，航速达14节，将同时入级印尼船级 Biro Klasifikasi

Indonesia。设计目标是提供 2200 立方米的标称天然气压缩能力，并将悬挂印尼国旗。

在修建之中，其中最大的Prelude 由荷兰皇家壳牌所有，应于 2017 年在一座澳大利亚离岸油田开始生产。壳牌并未透露对 Prelude 可能耗费成本的估计，但分析家认为造价可能超过 120 亿美元。中国的首个 FLNG 也可能要花费数十亿美元。中海油可能选择自己的一家造船厂建造F L NG，但也会有不少中国企业追逐这份订单，当然包括沪东中华和大连造船厂。但获胜的可能是上海惠生集团。今年6月，惠生向Cott Oil and Gas 位于巴布亚湾的 Pandora 天然气田项目提供了两种技术和商业可行性理念，包括涉及 F L NG设计的理念。惠生的设计是每年100万吨的离岸FLNG 船，包括17万立方米的天然气净化、液化和存储装置。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 金融

银行为中国的海工产业施压降温 Jason Jiang 跟踪报道 Marine Money 近期在大连举办的海工金融活动。要点如下

今年夏初，在大连举办的 Marine Money 海工融资活动中，参与中国海工行业讨论的中国银行业代表们认为，为避免产能过剩，中国的银行对于向海工行业提供融资的态度更加谨慎。中国进出口银行交通运输融 12

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资部总经理助理高泽峰说： “目前，大部分造船厂都将海工行业视为新的增长点，希望进入该行业，但其中很多船厂并无建造海工产品的充足能力。” 高泽峰补充说： “我们现在为涉足海工业务的造船厂拟定了一份白名单，将仅向名单上的

船厂提供融资。” “我们并不是不支持小型船厂，但我们需要避免造船市场产能过剩的问题在海工行业中再次出现。”他解释道。国家开发银行 (CDB) 船舶融资中心副主任张旭同意高泽峰的看法，称国家开发银行也制定了一份相似的名单。 “国内造船厂必须提升自己的标准，才能进入这份名单，这样国内船厂的总体标准将随之提高，银行的风险也会降低，” 张旭说。几名发言人向参会代表讲解了海工产品的价格如何走低，进一步压缩了船厂的利润率。由于银行提高了海工融资的利率，使得融资成本上升，支付条款也变得更加不利。预付款比例从六年前的 30% 降至 10% 甚或更低。大连船舶工业公司 (DSIC) 总经理于逢平说： “与 2013 年上半年相比，自升式钻井平台的需求同比下滑25%，投机投资商的订单也在增加。” 这次活动还吸引了不少船东参加，包括合资企业 C B I MMEER 的主席 Evan Claar，该公司已经在 DSIC 订购了总共四台多用途生活和建设支持平台设备，每台设备价值约为 1.5 亿美元。 Claar呼吁中国的造船厂，为

获得更多海工订单，定价要更加精确。他说， “预付定金较低很有吸引力，很多融资不确定性可以消除，从而为船厂带来更多订单。举例来说，我们的建造工作已经开始，但我仍然不能确切知道我们需要多少资金，也不知道合计费用会是多少。”

CIMC加码融资业务中国国际海运集装箱集团 (CIMC)是一家主要的集装箱制造商，它正通过旗下的子公司 CIMC 融资租赁公司扩展融资租赁业务。 “CIMC今年预期为融资租赁业务新投入8 0 亿人民币，”CIMC融资租赁公司的总经理曾北华今年7月说。根据曾女士的说法，CIMC 融资租赁公司目前管理价值约为10 0 亿人民币的资产。其客户包括集装箱运输公司 MSC和CMA CGM，他们利用 CIMC的融资购买了一系列特超巴拿马型船。 CIMC还计划在深圳目前正在开发的前海特别经济区开展海工融资业务和高端航运服务。CIMC将与一家香港金融机构合作启动这一全新业务。

商品 ■ ■ ■

铝业亮起红灯印度尼西亚的铝土矿禁令，给困顿中的铝业带来最新一击，Mark Downing 报道

在中国持续的城市化进程中，铝发挥着至关重要的作用，同时也是中国另一个急需解决的问题。铝是一种用途广泛的金属，中国的铝产量越来越大，超过其他任何国家，用于满足建筑、制造和包装等多个行业的需求。尽管全球供应过剩、工厂关闭以及生产成本上升，中国还在继续扩大产能，并竭力保障充足的原矿供应。根彭博社的消息，去年，中国国内的铝土矿供应仅能满足三分之一多一点的需求，还需进口 7160 万吨，其中 4870 万吨来自印尼。铝土矿精炼成氧化铝，然后通过电解方式转化为铝。从 1 月份起，由于印尼为促进国内加工业发展而禁止矿石出口，中国被迫寻找别的供应来源。但一些观察家预测，印尼新任总统 Joko Widodo 可能会放松出口禁令。如果禁令持续，印尼的大部分铝土矿产业可能要停业数年之久，因为开发上游设施造价昂贵，耗时长久。中国的氧化铝精炼企业如果承诺在

印尼修建设施，则可以选择继续进口铝土矿，直到他们在印尼的精炼厂开始运营。但国内加工能力过剩以及利润率低下，使得此类投资并不可行。在禁令颁布之前，中国的铝生产商已经储备了相当于一年供应量的原材料。不仅如此，他们还在积极寻找新的供应源，以满足产能扩张的宏图大业。咨询机构 Wood Mackenzie 预测，中国的铝土矿需求到 2018 年将上升 30%，到 2030年则可能高达 2.4 亿吨。像中国的很多其他行业一样，铝业也因产能过剩而出现低迷，需要进行重组。价格下跌，亏损严重，已经迫使几家中国冶炼厂关门歇业。中国政府严令进一步关闭落后、低效和

中国去年进口了 7160万吨铝土，其中

4870

万吨来自印尼

污染设施，各地政府则在保就业的压力下，经常发放补贴。尽管关闭了一些工厂，中国的总体产能一直在增长。国内生产商正在山西省开发十亿吨高品质铝土储量。在中国的西北部，尤其是新疆，正在修建新一代的冶炼厂，原因是该地区拥有万亿吨的廉价电煤。由于铝生产总成本中将近一半来自于电费，因此如此大规模的低成本能源非常重要，约占中国电力产能的十分之一。 “如果抛开政治和环境因素，中国最少要消耗 2500 万吨[铝]，长期年增长率达到 8% ，”咨询机构 AZ China 的总经理 Paul Adkins 这样告诉 SinoShip。 “将有相当数量的新金属投入市场。尽管国内铝土生产提速，[中国]依然远远达不到自给自足的能力。” 没有别的供应商能够取代印尼，供应数量充足且品质适当的铝土。 “印尼恰好在合适的时间占据了合适的地位。停止矿石出口的决策对于船运公司来说是一个利好消息。无论中国

从哪里找到原料，过程都将格外漫长。中国在西非、牙买加、印度甚至斐济都开展了大规模的勘探工作。问题在于中国重新开始进口氧化铝，数量为铝土矿的 40%。氧化铝一直是中国的备用方案，但中国的氧化铝精炼能力经过多年发展，已经非常成熟，所以从海外进口氧化铝绝非上策，”Adkins 说。澳大利亚的供应能力仅能满足部分需求，并且会带来生产成本升高的问题。印度最近实施了铝土矿出口关税，以支持因开采限制而面临原料短缺的本土铝生产商。 “中国真正的良机在于西非，但西非的地理位置非常不好，运输路线最长，政治风险最高，”Adkins 说。6 月，中国最大的私营铝生产商宏桥铝业宣布欲购买位于几内亚的矿山，几内亚拥有全球最大的铝土储量。由于国内铝生产商深受产能过剩、激烈竞争和政府利益冲突的困扰，不得不使供应来源多样化，而海运行业一定会从中分到最大一杯羹。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

物流 ■ ■ ■

点击投递中国电子商务巨头投入巨资打造供应链随着中国互联网经济的快速发展，电子商务和物流已经成为热点话题。据中国电子商务研究中心 (CECRC) 发布的一份报告显示，2013 年中国网上购物交易额达 1.885 万亿人民币（3,050 亿美元），其中有 70% 的网购业务由快递完成，而快递公司的业务中有 50% 来自电子商务行业。为加强对供应链的管控，中国各家电子商务公司纷纷进军物流业，使其成为争夺这个世界第一大网购大国主宰权的新的主战场。包括京东、当当网和阿里巴巴在内的电商巨头均已将物流视为未来发展计划中的重要组成部分。中国网络购物平台京东于 5 月在纳斯达克上市。该公司已同南京地方政府签署了一项价值 20 亿人民币的协议，将在南京建立一座智能物流中心。京东首席执行官刘强东去年表示，公司计划在未来三年投资 100 亿人民币发展物流业务。目前京东在中国有 7 座仓储设施，计划到 2015 年将该数字增加到 60 座，到 2020 年前新增 10 座自动化货仓。京东于 2013 年底设立了上海物流中心——“亚洲一号”，称该中心是亚洲最大的仓储设施，可用面积约为 230,000 平方米。目前，京东正在沈阳和广州兴建两座类似的仓储设施。

“我们别无选择，只能发展自己的物流业务，因为中国的物流成本太高。此举大幅降低了我们在整条供应链中的物流成本，”刘强东称，并补充说目前物流成本约占京东销售收入的 5.8%。但仅仅 7 个月后，京东“亚洲第一”的王者地位便被他人取代。7 月，京东的竞争对手当当网宣布其位于天津的规模最大的仓储中心“银河 1 号”正式投入运营。该仓储中心的规模几乎比京东仓储中心大四倍。此外，当当网还宣布计划在未来三年开发 100 座仓储设施，并将其运营网络拓展到三线和四线城市。 “目前，一线和二线城市的电子商务市场几近饱和，大量电商企业正在寻求向小城市甚至县城拓展，这会为物流带来更多挑战。因此，未来我们将在物流领域投入更多资金，以同公司的业务拓展保持一致步调，”当当网高级总监任强称。然而，快速增长的网上商店——1 号店——首席执行官王海辉却并不热衷于投资建设大型仓储设施。 “电商企业兴建这种大型仓储设施是错误的，”他警告称。 “此举并不真正具有成本效益，对于电商企业而言最重要的是库存管理，”王海辉称，并补充说 1 号店将努力在明年将库存周转时间从目前的 20天缩短到10 天。

中国顶尖电商企业阿里巴巴目前正在开发一个覆盖全国的物流网络，在未来五年到八年内，这个网络将通过其新组建的合资公司菜鸟为阿里巴巴日网购交易额达 300 亿人民币的庞大业务提供支持。然而，阿里巴巴称“菜鸟”将仅作为一个第四方智能物流平台，它将把电商和物流领域的所有相关方汇聚在一起，而阿里巴巴本身则永远不会涉足快递业务。 “我们目前正在着手解决下个十年的物流问题，”阿里巴巴首席营销官王帅称。今年7月，阿里巴巴还同国有

去年中国网上购物交易额高达

3,050 亿美元

船运企业中海集装箱运输有限公司合作建立一个综合物流平台，中海集装箱运输有限公司和阿里巴巴的客户均可使用这个平台进行在线物流询价、下单、结算和货物跟踪。 “电商企业进军物流业势必会对快递公司造成压力，迫使它们提高服务水平，并组建联盟，另外还有一些快递公司计划进军电商市场，”中国快递协会一位官员表示。顺丰速运是中国最大的快递公司之一，于 2012 年开设了网上食品超市— —顺丰优选 (sfbest.com)。目前，该网站为中国 68 座城市运送食品，同时为中国 9 座城市运送新鲜和冷冻货物。这个极具发展潜力的市场同样吸引了银行和金融机构的目光。招商银行 (CMB) 为电商企业推出了全新的供应链融资套餐。而其他银行也跃跃欲试，准备推出类似产品。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 人物专访

风生水起全球最大的纺织品制造商之一刚刚进入船东行业。Jason Jiang 报道

陈

建华是中国领先的纺织公司恒力集团的总裁，他比绝大部分人都更熟知中国的纺织市场。 1994 年，陈建华买下江苏一家破产的纺织厂，开始经营恒力集团。约 20 年后，恒力集团成为全球最大的纺织公司之一，员工人数超过 60,000 名。其最终用户包括全球知名品牌，如耐克、阿迪达斯和丰田。陈建华在业内的地位很高，但他清楚，中国正面临失去服装出口头把交椅的风险。 “目前来看，中国的纺织业面临诸多挑战，包括海外订单减少、劳动成本上升、人民币升值和投机者的盲目投资，” 陈建华说。陈建华认为，这个行业需要创新才能走出目前的困境。 “我们总是在寻找机遇使业务多元化，但化纤纺织公司的转型空间并不大，因此我们决定将重点放在生产精对苯二甲酸 (PTA)，它用于制造涤纶。我们之前大都依赖进口，现在则投资上游行业与运输业，以掌控整个产业链，”陈建华说。 2010 年，恒力集团新设立了一家化工子公司恒力石化，目前在大连的长兴岛开发 PTA 制造基地，这是一个可以享受石化和海运发展优惠政策的地区。恒力为该项目配备了总计 250 亿人民币的投资。2012 年，集团已经开始运营两条 PTA 生产线，年总产能达到 440 万吨，成为世界上最大的 PTA 工厂。2013 年，恒力石化实现销售收入 430 亿人民币。根据陈建华的介绍，第三条 PTA 生产线有望在今年 9 月启动运营。恒力石化预期今年的销售收入会升至 600 亿人民币。恒力为支持 PTA 的生产和运输，还在长兴岛开发了自己的航运码头、铁路和电厂。两个 100,000 载重吨码头的年处理能力共计 640 万吨。去年，恒力成立了自己的运输公司恒力海运，向江苏海通海洋工程公司订购了十艘 15,000 载重吨散货船，专用于 PTA 的运输。

今年 7 月，恒力海运在接收交付的首批三艘散货船后开始运营。其余的散货船预计将在今年底之前交付。该公司是目前中国东北地区唯一一家专注于 PTA 运输的公司。陈建华说，散货船交付之后，改变了公司租船开展运输的历史，新船将大幅提升集团供应链的运输效率，并补充说对于 PTA 项目及运输的投资是重要举措，能够使集团产业链变得完整，并缓解国内纺织业面临的原材料短缺的问题。恒力集团还通过另一家子公司，康辉石化，在营口仙人岛投资 100 亿人民币开发一个新的原材料制造基地。一期项目于

中国的纺织行业面临诸多挑战 16

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今年 6 月开始运营。迄今为止，恒力已经建成了由在苏州、南通、宿迁、大连和营口有五个制造基地组成的产业网。

恒力海运 2013年，恒力海运作为恒力集团的航运分公司成立。恒力集团是全球最大的纺织公司之一。公司在江苏海通海洋工程公司订购了十艘散货船，并于今年收到首批交付的三艘船后开始运营。其余的散货船预计将在今年底之前交付。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

飞得越高，跌得越重苏信吉曾飞得太高，目前正在应对多个地区的法庭诉讼。Jason Jiang 和 Sam Chambers 的独家采访

inoShip 花了将近六个月的时间追踪

高深莫测、机智善变的苏信吉，才得到这次采访机会。很少有人能像台湾 Today Makes Tomorrow (TMT) 的老板苏信吉这样飞得如此之高，却跌得如此之重。当我们见面时，苏信吉和我们所想的并不一样，这位六年前的传奇人物如今已变成一个更加平和、懂得沉思，在我们看来有一点点急躁的人。这可以理解，因为他要应对全球各地那么多的法庭诉讼。他的公关公司要求我们使用的照片极富深意。年轻的容颜已逝，额头的皱纹和灰白的头发都在讲述着它们自己的故事。但在这张面部照片中，最显眼的还是上面洒满的金色，因为这个男人认为他点石成金的能力永远不会消失。苏信吉是这个行业最高深莫测的人物之一，相比其他大多数船东，他在技术方面要精通许多（例如他对船舶开创性的改造就是前所未闻的），他敢于下大赌注，因此收获的回报也很大。他曾是船运繁荣时期最大的 FFA 参与者，他对中国铁矿石进口的判断恰到好处，但他的发展规模太大，速度太快，以至于当势头转变，他竟无处可去。在那段繁荣时期，他曾是游戏规则的制定者，每个经纪人和蛇油推销员都盛意宴请他，回望过去，不难想象他只是相信了那些人所说的话。金融危机来临后，就如皇帝的新衣一样，苏信吉遭遇滑铁卢，瞬间失去了一切。苏信吉的落败让人们见证了一个帝国的土崩瓦解，他的船舶被售卖，船队被搁浅，工资无法支付，律师为了一些微不足道的事在法庭上费尽唇舌。苏信吉并没有理会关于法庭要求强制出售船舶的裁决，他表示： “我们决定卖出一些船只，因为在我看来，船运市场将在很长一段时期内保持低迷。” 苏信吉热衷于强调他在美国法庭提出的许多知识产权问题。他有 10 多个与船运相关的专利，他觉得有些人正在侵犯他的设计。 “我认为这种产能过剩和结构变化将最终使那些知道如何打造不同解决方案的

人存活下来。因此我正在努力这样做，”他提到了他的许多自创船舶设计。看到如今的市场状况，一朝被蛇咬十年怕井绳的苏信吉现在已经不再热衷于在船运业做任何投资。在始终存在产能过剩的情况下，他认为干散货和油轮市场都存在“巨大的市场波动性”，以及这两个市场都非常“脆弱”。苏信吉表示： “不论市场呈现怎样的增长态势，都不会持续很长时间，因为我们存在巨大的产能过剩的情况。我不指望任何船运市场会出现良好的市场状况。” 回望过去，如今苏信吉认为，对于他不合时机的投资，当时的市场力量已超出他的控制能力。他回忆道： “正常的竞争方式无法在货运领域拔得头筹，”并补充道： “因此需要采用反竞争的方式。我已有很长时间没有

这个男人认为他点石成金的能力永远不会消失

这种感觉了。如果我知道的话，我就不会向韩国两个大型造船厂投资 70 亿美元这么大笔的订单。如果是这样，结果就会完全不同。”

TMT 船运低迷时期最引人注目的受创公司之一。苏信吉在其父亲去世后开始经营 Today Makes Tomor row( T M T )。公司原名台湾海运公司 (Taiwan Maritime Tra nsp or t at ion)，最初成立于 1958年，在富有冒险精神的苏信吉的带领下，于2007年达到全盛时期，当时TMT经营的船只超过130艘。该公司目前面正面临着多起破产诉讼。

Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 人物专访

准备起航 Jason Jiang 对话国内首屈一指的内河油轮企业创始人

在

中国长江中的数千艘老旧船只中，涂有红黄两色涂装的泽胜船务的现代化油轮颇为抢眼，而且辨识度极高。目前，该公司是长江流域首屈一指的石化船运公司。该公司总经理兼创始人任泽友的职业生涯始于 20 世纪 80 年代，当时他在一艘船上当学徒。到 20 世纪 90 年代，他转而利用包船经营船运业务。2003 年，他和弟弟用仅有的一艘 2,000 载重吨的化学品运输船成立了泽胜集团，而仅仅五年后，这家公司的船队数量便增长到了 29 艘。 2008 年，泽胜集团和中国航空油料集团公司下属的一家物流公司按各自 50% 的出资比例成立了一家合资公司— —重庆市

泽胜船务。借助其国有合作伙伴的支持，泽胜船务发展成为长江流域的航运巨头之一，而且是中国西南地区唯一一家航空油料船运公司。在过去五年中，该公司的船队规模从 29 艘增长到了目前的 62 艘，总运力则从 85,000 载重吨增加到了现在的 300,000 载重吨。同期，公司利润同样保持着年均 20% 的增长幅度。任泽友说，公司又订购了 4 艘船。 “由于西南地区的航空业呈快速增长态势，因此该地区对于航空油料的需求与日俱增。大部分航空油料均从中国中东部地区经内河运输而来。然而，当时中航油本身并没有运输船，大多数油料均用包船形式运输，因此产生了许多风险，”任泽友解释说。 “中航油拥有市场优势和雄厚财力，而我们则在船队管理方面具备一定的实力，”任泽友称。

任泽友对于长江流域的化工船运市场持乐观态度，称： “随着长江流域即将开发更多石化项目，我们对于未来前景信心十足。” 泽胜已与多家大型公司建立了长期战略合作伙伴关系，包括中石化、中石油、蓬威石化和建滔化工集团。 “我们依然面临一系列严峻挑战，包括市场竞争日趋激烈以及环境日益恶化，”任泽友表示。为促进长江流域的环保工作和保持公司的可持续发展，泽胜和 CNAF 还成立了另外一家合资公司— —泽胜洗舱公司，该公司负责提供绿色洗舱解决方案。 “为每艘船只洗舱后会产生约 100 吨废

我们依然面临一系列严峻挑战，包括市场竞争日趋激烈以及环境日益恶化 18

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水，如果处理不当，将会造成极大污染，” 任泽友表示。该公司计划在未来三年将船队数量扩大到 83 艘，并逐步将业务拓展到国内沿海市场，并开始提供江海联运服务。

泽胜船务该公司由两兄弟在 11年前创立。之后同中国国有航空油料公司开展合作，并一举成为长江流域首屈一指的船运企业之一。公司拥有60多艘船只，并计划在未来三年内增加到83艘。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

为什么中国的海工建造企业今年形势微妙 Jason Jiang 与中远船务工程公司的顶层高管晤谈

今

年，海工钻井平台的订单和价格都出现下滑，中国领先钻井平台建造企业之一的负责人如是

说。中远船务工程集团的常务副总经理及海工经营部总经理施炜探讨市场机遇和挑战。中远船务工程集团是国营企业中远集团的造船部门，它隶属于新加坡上市公司中国远洋控股，由分布在中国的六家船厂组成。集团可以建造海洋工程船、钻井平台、浮式生产储油卸油船 (FPSO) 以及诸多其他产品，是中国顶尖的海工建造商之一。施炜对于海工市场的长期前景持乐观态度，认为目前市场只是遇到些小麻烦。 “中央政府已将海工开发列为国家优先战略之一，会有更多的国内投资者对这一领域感兴趣，并选择在国内造船厂下订单。中国造船厂在海工市场的份额正在增长。”施炜说。中远船务工程公司直到 2006 年才涉足海工行业，目前有 27 个再建的海工项目，包括八个海工生活区。施炜说“根据我们的研究，到 2017 年，将有很多老旧的石油平台需要进行更新换代，这会为我们带来机遇。而中央政府大力支持海工融资，也促使海外投资者在中国造船厂下订单。” 但是，施炜也承认，公司依然面临多重挑战，并特别指出今年订单增长全面放缓。 “石油公司短期内削减油田开发支

出，使得海工平台运营商下订单的速度有所放缓，导致日租金下降，有些石油公司还推迟了计划好的钻井合同投标，这就意味着在建项目无法按照预期得到租赁合同，”施炜解释道。按照施炜的说法，目前有太多的中国造船厂加入了竞争海工订单的行列。他说，“他们对海工市场的预期过高，有些船厂为了提升海工业绩，以特殊的条件签订订单。” 施炜说，海工产品的价格也在下降，这进一步压缩了公司的利润率。“由于银行提高了海工融资的利率，使得融资

石油公司短期内削减支出，使得海工平台运营商下订单的速度有所放缓

成本上升，支付条款也变得更加不利。到 2008 年底，预付款比例从 30% 降至 10% 甚或更低。” 施炜总结道：“市场总是机遇和挑战并存。我们必须做到的就是找到平衡点。”

中远船务工程公司中远船务工程公司于 2001 年 6 月成立，隶属于新加坡上市公司中国远洋控股。它旗下有六家造船厂，涉足新船建造、维修和改装业务。

Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 液化天然气

前景不明，但价格飞涨

中国的天然气数据仍不明朗。但不可否认的是，价格一直在飙升

把

握中国液化天然气 (LNG) 的实际意图非常困难，因为随着不同能源类型的全球价格波动，全国的整体能源结构也一直在变化。然而，不可否认的是，污染一直是中国非常热门的话题，也是中央政府非常关注、亟待解决的问题，此后液化天然气才能迎来光明未来中国严重依赖国内的煤炭来满足日益升高的能源消耗。 2012年天然气仅占中国能源消耗总量的4.9%，但投入国内天然气生产和基础设施的大量投资，以及不断增长的进口量，戏剧性地改变了这一数字。美国能源信息管理局发布的新报告显示，中国对天然气的需求在未来25年将翻三倍以上。到2040年，中国对天然气的需求预计将达到17.5万亿立方英尺，几乎是目前总量的三倍。从2003年到2013年，中国的天然气消耗量以17%的年平均率增长，去年达到近 5.7 万亿立方英尺。其中，进口天然气占全国需求量的32%，尽管自2003年以来国内产量已翻了三倍以上。

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2012年中国成为液化天然气的第三大进口国，仅次于日本和韩国。预计到2015年底和2020年底，中国政府会将其能源消耗总量中的天然气比重分别增至大约 8% 和 10%。 2003年以来，中国的天然气产量已翻了三倍以上，2012年的产量达3.8万亿立方英尺，到2015年底，政府每年的天然气目标产量约为 5.5万亿立方英尺。大多数的预期增长产量来自中国西部和中北部地区的大型陆上油田，以及中国南海的离岸深水区。2007年以来，中国的天然气消耗量已超出国内供应量，促使液化天然气和管输天然气的进口量不断增长。从 2003 年到 2013年，中国的天然气消耗量以 17% 的年平均率增长，2013 年达到近 5.7 万亿立方英尺。 2013年，中国进口了将近1.8万亿立方

中国去年进口天然气的百分比高达

32%

这一数字在2006年仅为2%

英尺液化天然气和管输天然气，以填补供需之间不断加大的差距。中国每月的进口量通常在18-23亿立方米之间，除了冬季高峰期会超过30亿立方米。 2013年中国进口天然气占需求量的 32%，在2006年这一数字仅为2%。中国的沿海城市地区正在快速发展其液化天然气进口能力，目前已有10个主要再气化终端，每年可处理 1.7 万亿立方英尺天然气。2012年，中国增长成为全球第三大液化天然气进口商，仅次于日本和韩国之后，2013年中国进口 8700 亿立方英尺液化天然气。2014年上半年的估计量显示，与前些年相比，今年的液化天然气进口量增长水平更快。中国还将继续投资天然气管道基础设施，将西部和北部地区的生产区连通到沿海地区的需求中心。中国潜藏着丰富的页岩气、煤层气和煤改气资源，这些资源推动政府投资并与具有专业技术知识的外国公司合作开发这些储备资源。据美国能源信息管理局估计，中国拥有从技术上可开采的全球最大页岩气储备，虽然投资者面临地质、技术和水源挑战，以及监管障碍、运输限制和与其他燃料的竞争。

液化天然气 ■ ■ ■

中央政府放松进入壁垒到目前为止，中国的液化天然气运输仍被国营实体垄断。这一切都将改变

中

国正逐步向非国营实体开放其液化天然气供应链。直到现在，整个行业（包括码头和船只）都由中国能源和海运行业的大型国营企业运

营。但是，作为推广效率和众多行业促进竞争的广泛报价的一部分，私企甚至外企都可以加入中国快速增长的天然气基础建设过程。相关案例可见船运业，如 Teekay 和 Mistui OSK Lines 与中国实体

削减页岩气目标中国大多数事情的目标都容易更改。最近几周，中央政府的页岩气目标进行了重大改动，这对涉及中国液化天然气进口业务的所有人都是个好预兆。中国已削减其 2020 年的页岩气目标，这表明中国已悄然承认仍然缺乏开发被认为是全球最大的页岩气储备的自然资源（主要是水资源）和技术。最初的目标 – 到 2020 年页岩气的商业性开采实现从零攀升至 600-800 亿立方米 – 已实现，而怀疑论者曾一直认为这不可能。目前中国让步了少许，它将该目

标削减为到 2020 年底开采 300 亿立方米，连同煤层气 (CBM) 一起。值得注意的是，煤层气 (CBM) 的目标被一再错失。中国的天然气输出正在快速增长（2014 年上半年的产量较上年同期增长 7.5%），去年中国所有开采形式的天然气总产量为 1160 亿立方米。

组建合资公司提供天然气。但是，交通运输部的人士告知 SinoShip，如果无需合资公司，它可以走得更远。由于刚刚兴起，因此运输液化天然气的运输许可证将缓慢来临。今年一月，中国海洋石油总公司阳江和浙江华翔海运公司获得许可在国内运输液化天然气，海航集团分公司天津市海运股份有限公司与大连船舶重工集团有限公司签署意向书，建造四艘液化天然气运输船，总运力达到160,000立方米到 175,000 立方米。码头也计划开放，这将形成更激烈的竞争。目前，中国的前 10 个液化天然气码头均为国营。新加坡贸易促发局主席Seah MoonMing 今年四月曾造访中国东北部的山东省，这是他就任新职后的首次海外之行。Seah 也是新加坡国有投资公司淡马锡控股公司旗下兰亭能源公司的首席执行官。他在新加坡向当地媒体透露：他正在查看在山东建造液化天然气接收站的可行性。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

Bringing maritime media out of the dark ages

Does your Chinese marketing for 2015 make the cut? www.sinoshipnews.com

动力 ■ ■ ■

尚无惊喜 Jason Jiang 与几家国内发动机制造商交流意见。艰难时世

今

年，中国造船厂收到的

订单越来越多，造船市场已经开始显露出积极发展的迹象，但国内的船用发动机制造商却依然没有看到复苏的希望。潍柴集团是中国领先的中速船用发动机制造商之一，它旗下的一家上市分公司潍柴重机的高管李德说： “内河运输市场和沿海运输市场依然处于困难阶段，所以对于造船商和设备供应商来说，市场并没有真正复苏。” 按照李德的说法，公司的中速船用发动机业务依然亏损，但公司仍专注于原有市场，没有进军低速船用发动机市场的计划。为了寻找新的增长领域，潍柴还积极考察 LNG 动力装置市场。

中船集团收购瓦锡兰的二冲程发动机业务今年 7 月，瓦锡兰与中国船舶工业集团公司（中船集团）签署了一份有关建立合资企业的协议，此举将收购瓦锡兰的二冲程发动机业务。该协议签订后，中船集团将通过下属的中国船舶工业投资开发公司持有该业务 70% 的股权，而瓦锡兰则保留另外 30% 的股份。双方将就二冲程发动机的技术、营销、销售和服务活动开展合作。同时，双方也就中船集团将其持有的合资公司股权全部转让给一家由上海市政府相关单位和中船集团共同建立的合资公司一事达成了共识。瓦锡兰服务部仍将通过其全球网络，负责瓦锡兰二冲程发动机的维修业务。

“我们发现 LNG 船用发动机市场存在巨大潜力，并已经开发出自己的 LNG 船用发动机。目前，我们正努力完成 LNG 动力装置产品组合，并将适时推出这些产品。我们认为现在的 LNG 价格呈上升趋势，所以并不急于入市。”李德说。中国最大的私营船用发动机制造商之一安泰电力的一名高管称，今年上半年，公司的船用发动机订单量出现大幅增长，然而由于市场竞争激烈，单价依然处于较低水平。他警告说，与国有竞争对手相比，私营发动机制造商会发现生存愈发困难。

这项交易价值约为 4600 万欧元，有望于 2015 年第一季度完成，具体取决于监管机构的批准时间。这家合资企业将在瑞士注册，总部仍将沿用目前位于温特图尔市的二冲程发动机总部。现有二冲程发动机业务管理团队也将保持不变。这家合资企业将拥有瓦锡兰二冲程发动机技术的所有权，并将在合资双方的全力支持下，继续拓展和促进二冲程发动机产品组合的销售工作。瓦锡兰在一份公告中表示： “合资双方均是全球船用产品领域的重头企业，此次合作的目标是将双方的优势合二为一。” 在宣布成立新合资企业后不久，瓦锡兰便宣布转让其在青岛齐耀瓦锡兰菱重麟山船用柴油机有限公司 (QMD) 的股份，该

由于竞争激烈，单价依然处于较低水平

公司也是一家合资企业，专门制造大型低速船用柴油发动机。瓦锡兰在该合资企业中的股份将被转让给当前的大股东青岛齐耀麟山动力发展有限公司，这家公司为中国船舶工业集团公司 (CSIC) 全资所有。 QMD 将按照瓦锡兰的许可，继续通过与中国船舶工业集团公司组建的新合资企业，制造瓦锡兰低速船用发动机。

Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

动力 ■ ■ ■

动力不足中国政府对于 LNG 动力船的目标十分远大，但实现起来并不容易。问题在于基础设施匮乏。

长

江依然是中国 LNG 燃料实验的实验室。但却存在一个明显的瓶颈。在船运业从业者们愿意为这次燃料变革买单之前，基础设施需要到位。 4 月，为促进 LNG 动力船在内河的发展，交通运输部发布了一项补贴政策。为自己的船更换燃料的船东将获得财政补贴，金额从每艘船 85 万人民币到 140 万人民币不等。船东目前面临的窘境是缺乏 LNG 加注设施。

中国政府计划到明年建成

1,610

艘 LNG动力船，目前的数量还不足100艘

武昌船舶重工有限公司 (WSIC) 目前正在建造中国的首艘 LNG 加注船， “LNG 动力船到 2015 年底都不会有实质性的发展，”该公司的一名官员称。他说，新的加注船必须首先上市。尽管交通运输部出台了很多优惠政策，LNG动力船的发展依然不够快。该部在先前的计划中称，预计到 2015 年将有 1610 艘船转为使用 LNG 动力。但截至 7 月底，仅有 14 艘船完成了向 LNG 动力的转换。自 2012 年至今，不足 100 艘船转换为了双燃料船。在 SinoShip 为撰写本文而联络的船东中，几乎所有人均对其 LNG 动力计划态度模糊。武汉江裕海运发展有限公司的一名管理人员说： “利润对我们至关重要。尽管政府提供补贴，我们仍然不知道 LNG 动力船可能带来什么风险。我们还没准备

好进入这一领域，还会继续观望等待。” 根据中国水运科学研究院的研究，超过半数的内河船东没有运营 LNG 动力船的计划，仅 14% 的船东称它们愿意尝试使用 LNG 动力。 “交通运输部目前正在制定 LNG 动力船的相关安全和技术标准，也与研究机构和高等院校合作研发关键技术，”中国海事局局长陈爱平声称。目前，南京、武汉和芜湖三个内河港口正在修建四座 LNG加注设施，还有更多 LNG 加注设施等待审批。 “中国的 LNG 加注业务潜力巨大，如果政府能够就相关标准提供更多指导，并推出更多支持政策，市场将在未来三到五年内出现快速发展，”江苏海企港华燃气发展有限公司的管理人员 Zhang Yonghua 认为。该公司是 2012 年成立的 LNG 加注企业，去年在江苏试运行了中国首个 LNG 加注设施，并计划建造更多此类设施。近几个月来，也许最引人关注的发展就是八月初的一条新闻：上海佳豪船舶工程

有限公司与绿色动力水上运输公司签署合约，设计和建造 200 艘 LNG 动力船。按照计划，上海佳豪旗下的造船厂江苏大金重工将从明年 3 月起交付新船。合约包括 100 艘 600 载重吨的船、50 艘 800 载重吨的船和 50 艘 1000 载重吨的船。合约的总价值约为 6.5 亿人民币。绿色动力水上运输公司于今年 6 月份成立，专门从事内河运输业务。上海佳豪及其子公司 Shanghai Walking LNG 分别持有该公司 25% 和 10% 的股份。

卡特彼勒首家中速发动机合资企业中船安庆基尔发动机有限公司是安庆中船柴油机有限公司 (ACDE) 和卡特彼勒的合资企业，于 6 月 25 日开始运营。该合资企业已经获得了建造 40 艘 Mak 品牌 M25 中速船用发动机（如图所示）的合约，并计划到 2018 年生产 180 台船用发动机。这家公司是卡特彼勒在中速发动机领域的全球唯一合资企业。 “这家合资企业将专注于提高生产效率和管理能力、降低部件采购成本，拓展销售区域，”安庆中船柴油机公司董事长

张海森说。 “当未来发展到一定规模时，这家合资企业将同卡特彼勒一同开发新的模式，并增强合资企业的工程能力，以支持其可持续发展，”张海森补充说。

Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 法律

如何与中国的造船厂打交道 Mayer Brown JSM的Bill Amos向读者介绍在中国订购新船及还款保函方面的注意事项

对

船东来说，从造船厂购买新船的过程可能是件冒险的事，比购买已建好的二手船风险要高很多。原因在于为了提供造船资金，船东要通过分期付款方式向造船厂/建造商预先支付数百万元。通常情况下，作为买家的船东对建造中的船舶没有抵押权或其他担保。如果造船厂违约，不得不退还船东的分期款，那么银行的还款保函会为船东提供必要的保障。从中国大陆造船厂购船的船东经常会收到中国各银行出具的还款保函，因此可能规定银行保函应该遵守香港特别行政区法律和司法辖区的规定。如果大陆的银行在香港设有分行，那么通过香港法院获得的任何裁决都可在香港执行。还款保函可采用以下两种类型之一。 “

www.sinoshipnews.com

传统的”保函在银行方面形成连带或次级责任。这意味着实际上，船东必须在相关的造船合同仲裁中获胜。只有在船东已得到支持其取消造船合同并获得分期款退款的仲裁决定时，该等传统保函方会生效。第二类保函是“见索”或履约保函，顾名思义，这类保函只需船东发出书面要求即生效。有见索即付保函的船东，担保方式最稳固可靠。按照这类保函，无论正在进行何种造船合同项下的仲裁，船东都有要求付款的权利。在 Otto Offshore Ltd 与交通银行的案件

有见索即付保函的船东，担保方式最稳固可靠

中，船东根据该行的还款保函在香港提起诉讼。另一方面，造船厂从天津法院获得一份制止令/禁令，禁止银行根据还款保函付款。银行向香港法院申请延缓香港法院的诉讼，暂停天津法院的诉讼结果以及相关造船合同的仲裁。银行辩称，其不应面临违反 (a) 天津制止令，或 (b) 香港法院按照保函发出的付款令的风险。值得一提的是，香港法院驳回了这一论点，拒绝延缓香港的诉讼。船东从未同意接受天津法院的司法管辖，也未向天津法院提交任何申请。此外，天津法院的制止令并非赔款判决，根据相关的香港法规或普通法均不被认可。因此，天津法院对船东不具备管辖权，无法给出香港认可的判决。香港法院的判决支持还款保函在造船过程中发挥的关键作用以及各方在保函中一致同意的接受香港法院的司法管辖。

法律 ■ ■ ■

跨境担保方面的法规有所松动 Ince & Co 的 Vincent Xu 就国家外汇管理局 (SAFE) 政策上做出的重大变动可能会受到各地船东的欢迎发表评论

中

国国家外汇管理局（外汇局）出台跨境担保外汇管理规定，取代了现有的 12 项跨境担保法规。新规定体现出外汇局向前迈出了一大步，适用于各种类型的跨境担保结构并对其进行监管，它包括以下三个类别：根据各方的注册地： i. 内保外贷或对外担保，担保提供人注册地在境内（即中国机构），债务人和债权人的注册地均在境外；因此，举例来说，在提供担保的情况下，只有担保人是中国机构。 ii.外保内贷或离岸担保，担保提供人注册地在境外，债务人/借方和债权人的注册地均在境内（即中国机构）；用同一个例子来说明，在提供担保的情况下，担保人并非中国机构，但其他各方均是中国机构。 iii.任何其他类型的跨境担保，其中债权人和债务人之一在境内（中国机构），另一方在境外，双方之间有跨境要素；担保提供人可能在境内，也可能在境外。主要变动如下： • 任何跨境担保协议的有效性无需再经过外汇局的批准、登记、存档，也不再需要满足外汇局的管理要求。举例来说，担保协议应包括抵押、质押、担保或备用信用证。 • 关于 (i) 对外担保和 (ii) 离岸担保，之前的配额管理和事前审批体系在新规执行后被要求进行担保登记所取代。无需对担保进行事前审批。 • 对于 (iii)，任何其他类型的跨境担保均无需登记或提出申请。 • 管理体系中有关融资性担保和非金融资性担保的区分也被废止。这意味着银行在融资性担保方面不再受任何配额管

理的约束。 • 现在，明确允许个人提供对外担保，但要遵循适用于非银行业机构的相关规定。 • 外汇局对担保执行的审批也被废除。

(English P&I Club) 的情况下，(a) 如果代表外国船东作为债权人直接面对中国公司，那么不需要进行任何登记，但是 (b) 如果代表一家中国船东提供担保，将被归入上述类别 (ii)，需要进行登记。

实际上，这些变化意味着： • 关于租船合同，举例来说，在一名中国担保人向一位外国船东提供租船合同出租方履约的母公司担保的情况下，如果 (a) 出租方是一家外国公司，担保人必须在 15 日内在外汇局登记担保，但如果 (b) 出租方是中国国内公司，则担保将被归入上述类别 (iii)，即“任何其他类型的”跨境担保，不需要进行任何形式的申请、登记或审批。 • 在提供担保的是英国船东保赔协会

关于还款保函，情形阐述如下：现在，如果一家中国造船厂不得不根据造船合同出具来自中国的银行的还款保函，那么作为风险管理要求的一部分，这家中国的银行将每月一次向外汇局提交关于该担保（及其任何重大修订）的一般信息，但无需经过外汇局事前审批，也无需在外汇局登记。根据新法规，该情形似乎未变。我们预计这些新法规会受到国际市场的热切欢迎，在各方使用跨境担保时带来灵活性、确定性和普及性。

新规带来灵活性、确定性和普及性 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 枢纽：上海

成本飙升可能影响追求目标上海的生活成本变得越来越高。Zoe Li问：它会高到无人问津吗？

上海已迅速发展为一个生活成本极高的城市。其生活成本的急剧飙升是否会妨碍上海实现于 2020 年跻身国际金融和海运中心的目标？这一目标是中央政府在七年前设立的。经济学人智库 (EIU) 做的一项生活成本调查发现，上海的生活成本比纽约还要高由于工资上涨、通货膨胀持续升高以及人民币升值，许多大陆城市的生活成本都在不断上升。其中最高的就是上海，它的上升幅度使之成为了二十一世纪的全球焦点。上海如要成为繁荣的国际海运中心(IMC)，它将需要大量国外技术和投资。不断攀升的生活成本和欠佳的环境可能会使顶尖人才 28

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流失。美世咨询最近编撰了另一份名单，这份名单罗列了外派员工在211个城市的生活成本。上海在这份名单中位居全球前十名。美世咨询的合伙人Ed Hannibal 表示： “虽然跨国公司不断意识到拥有全球劳动力的重要性，且企业依然流行外派工作，但他们必须能够监控和平衡其外派计划的成本。在外派员工到海外工作时，雇主需要评估币值波动、通货膨胀和政治不稳定性的影响，同时确保通过提供具有竞争力的薪酬待遇来留住有才华的员工。” 许多公司奉行货运至上，

认为上海将极大地促进公司的发展，而忽视了在此生活的高成本，同时许多分析师指出，新加坡可能是全球近期最繁忙的航运中心，它的生活成本位列经济学人智库榜单的第一名。供应链咨询顾问Russel Beron 最近搬去了香港，他在上海工作了很长时间，他告诉SinoShip： “ 我认为生活成本对上海是否能成为海运中心没有影响。你看看香港，它的生活成本要高得多，但它仍是顶尖的海运中心。中国目前仍是全球最大的出口国，而且这种情况还将持续很长时间，因此拥有一个国际海运中心对中国非常重要。”

上海有渴望也有实力

Beron认为，相比生活成本，其他问题如政府政策、高税收率和开展业务的容易程度可能影响更大。我们的姐妹网站M a r it i m e CEO在年初做了一项民意调查，调查哪个城市将成为未来五年内最具活力的海运中心，结果上海居新加坡之后，位列第二。在调查对象中，有很多都表示更喜欢上海。 “新加坡将努力保住这一头衔，但上海有这种渴望，也有这种实力实现目标，”一位投票者写道，但另一位投票者表示： “ 上海靠近太平洋，又有通过长江开展货运的工业腹地重庆，因此绝对值得期待。”另一位调查对象则表示，只要上海能够降低其污染状况，就有望位列第一。

枢纽：台湾 ■ ■ ■

台“立法院”未能就新贸易区达成一致意见，这将阻碍高雄港的发展进程

政治僵局迫使港口规划停滞不前 David Green写到，在台湾岛上建立的所谓“自由经济示范区”(FEPZ) 目前暂时处于停滞状态继今年夏天“立法院”对一项关键的自由贸易法案争执不下后，政治领域的诡计正在阻碍台湾试图提高其港口竞争力的努力。 6 月，由于民进党坚持要逐条审议该法案，因此有关提议在台湾六大港口及其国际机场建立所谓“自由经济示范区”的法案进度放缓，裹足不前。在学生对执政的国民党试图不顾反对意见强行将该法案批准为法律条文的一片抗议声中， “立法院”在休会前召开了一次听证会，对该法案 73 条条文中的 4 条条文进行审议。自由经济示范区旨在为那些将利润汇回台湾并用于示范区再投资的台湾企业、农业和工业原材料加工企业以及货物存储出口企业提供税收优惠。该税收优惠计划的扶持对象为高附加值服务业（尤其是智

能物流）、国际医疗保健业、增值农业以及金融和教育服务业。如果该法案成功获批，则初步目标为仅今年将新增210 亿新台币（7.01 亿美元）私人投资，2015 年贸易总额将达 1 万亿新台币。此外，外界还认为这些示范区对于台湾争取加入泛太平洋伙伴关系( Tra ns-Paci f ic Partnership) 和区域全面经济伙伴关系(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) 等地区自由贸易协定以及与中国大陆、香港、新加坡和韩国的港口开展竞争至关重要。以智能物流为重点的发展策略可能会为货代公司带来特殊机遇，同时具

备整合港口基本制造能力的潜力，而这两点均得到了包括台北市海运承揽运送商业同业公会在内的多个团体的普遍欢迎，这个公会是台湾地区最大的物流业协会组织。 “台湾所有六个自由贸易港均将根据地理位置和港口特点重点从事特定物流服务，” 台湾港务公司的 Andrew Chen 表示。 “自由经济示范区有望为基本金属加工服务提供便利，这将对高雄港产生深远影响，因为高雄港自去年 11 起便一直作为伦敦金属交易所的原铝、铝合金、铜、铅、镍、锡和锌的交货港，”Chen 补充说。高雄港将继续推进向钢铁和金属加

外界认为，这些示范区对于台湾试图加入地区自由贸易协定的努力具有重要意义

工公司出售南星计划区现有制造园区内土地的工作，而台北港今年春天已向一家木浆物流中心和一家涉及风力涡轮机组装和出口的保障设施出售了地块。如果自由经济示范区计划获批，那么主要从事增值农业和散货装运的安平港也将从中受益。另外苏澳港的业务重点为绿色能源，而台中港则以油品调合为主。据 Chen 透露，自由经济示范区还有望通过修改法律的方式简化海关手续，此举可使货代公司避开报关行单独报关，从而缩短通关时间。 “修改法规后还将降低货代公司的转运成本，提高货物联运的便利程度，从而吸引更多货代公司到台湾各港口开展业务。” 然而，企业界和政界依然有很多人对自由经济示范区计划持反对意见。当地企业界担心外国投资 — —尤其是中国大陆公司对农业领域的投资——会损害岛内竞争力。 “我认为只能等到 11 月底举行的‘七合一’选举结束后，届时将选出七类人民代表，” 国立台湾海洋大学船运和商业物流管理系助理教授邱荣和表示。“ 在此之前，这个问题将一直搁置，因为到时我们才知道哪些政治领导人能够解决它。” Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 枢纽：香港

香港作为全球船舶融资中心的重要地位将何去何从 Alfred Romann 撰文称，香港距离亚洲首屈一指的船舶融资中心的重要地位渐行渐远

银行开始重拾船舶融资业务，而香港则到处都是银行。毫无疑问，与过去几年中的任何时候相比，香港各银行现在应能够为更多船舶提供融资服务。 “香港一直是全球主要的船舶融资中心之一，”法国农业信贷银行亚洲船舶融资 (Credit Agricole Ship Finance Asia) 名誉董事长 David Cheng 表示。香港成为全球重要的船舶融资中心有许多原因，包括资本可在香港自由流动，船东因香港是贸易枢纽以及拥有大型繁忙港口长久以来一直聚集于此，更不用提香港一直为各企业提供许多优惠措施。对于香港而言，美中不足的是这个行业略微有点过于繁复，而且很少依赖于某个特定地点。对于银行而言，船舶融资是一项地区性业务。从全局来看，银行对于在香港提供船 30

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舶融资的意愿和在新加坡（或东京、上海、首尔）是一样的。 “船舶融资是一项地区性业务，因此有时很难说谁提供的融资更多，”David Cheng 表示。 “银行仅在一地开展船舶融资业务是远远不够的。” 因此，各银行纷纷拓展地区业务。大多数银行根据更大区域— — 例如亚太区— — 来区分这项特定业务。香港的银行数量有些过剩，但这些银行目前正在谨慎回归船舶融资业务。部分像汇丰银行这样的银行或许更加依赖现有业务关系，而非重点关注整个船舶融资业务。其他银行则愿意提供船舶融资服务，但杠杆水平会低于过去。船东能够拿到相当于船舶价值80%或更高融资的日子已经一去不复返了。现在，银行更为谨慎，更倾向于按船舶价值的

60%或65%提供融资。部分原因是海运业一直存在供应过剩的问题。德国北方银行 (HSH Nordbank) 在2014年第二季度对船运公司所做的一份市场调查表明，73% 的受访者（大多数位于德国）认为集装箱船部门是运力过剩最严重的细分市场。另有 39% 的受访者表示，散货船运力过剩的现象最为严重。事实上，大多数细分市场都存在运力过剩问题，而且按照目前全球订单情况判断，似乎短期无法自行解决该问题。 “未来两年，将有多艘船舶投入运营，”Cheng 表示。

因此，各银行更倾向于将业务对象限定为那些他们熟悉的企业和个人以及了解船运行业的企业和个人。但许多银行正在考虑拓展其他地区，而这种局面对香港作为船舶融资中心的地位产生了威胁。竞争来自多个领域。例如，新加坡正努力吸引更多来自不同领域的业务，而不仅仅是船运业。新加坡一直为企业提供各种优惠措施以吸引它们在新加坡建立办事处，而且一直在简化投资手续。此举吸引了许多商业巨头，例如船东。相应地，它还吸引了许多追随这些巨头的服务提供商，例如为这些巨头提供开展业务所需融资服务的银行。上海虽然略逊一筹，但中国船运业的增长为上海成为船运业融资中心提供了更多便利。东京是一个重要参与者，但却被规模庞大的国内船运业所占据。得益于韩国船运业的巨大优势，首尔同样是一个相对重要的船舶融资中心，但依然落后于该地区的其他中心。韩国政府非常清楚船运业正在面临的各项挑战。于是在4月发布了一份关于加强首尔作为国际海事中心地位的报告。这份报告不仅凸显了首尔在该行业中的重要地位，而且指出首尔需要强化包括融资在内的与船运有关的各项制度，并投入更多人力资源用于发展该行业。

从全局来看，银行对于在香港提供船舶融资的意愿和在新加坡（或东京、上海、首尔）是一样的

书籍 ■ ■ ■

亚洲能源需求飙升 Paul French深入挖掘一系列以石油为主题的书籍

桶价格（因为之前中东出产的石油大部分销往欧洲和美国，而现在中国却成为该市场的大买家）和在马六甲海峡打击海盗的活动。Simpfendorfer 在其撰写的新书《新东方的崛起：在日益复杂的世界中取得成功的商业战略》(The Rise of the New East:Business Strategies for Success in a World of Increasing Complexity) 中继续对东方、中东和远东地区之间日益紧密的关系进行了分析。问题已经不再单单限于中国，还涉及到其他亚洲国家— —尤其是印度尼西亚— —日益增长的消

中国即将成为中东地区第一大贸易伙伴

亚洲未来对能源的需求有多大？这是一个重大问题，国际海运界的全体参与者理应理清头绪，尤其是考虑到这样一个情况，即据美国能源信息管理局（EIA）透露，全球石油产量中约有一半采用海运形式运输。EIA 近期分别将 2014 和 2015 年预测原油、汽油和天然气的平均价格（每桶和每热量单位）上调了若干美元。或许有些分析师知道问题的答案？在《中国、印度和日本的未来石油需求：政策预案和分析》(Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan: Policy Scenarios and Implications) 一书中，George Eberling 认为，中国、印度和日本的未来石油需求将引发对稀缺能源资源的激烈争夺。Eberling 认为，中国对进口石油的依赖度与日俱增，这意味着中国将努力在未来的世界能源事务中发挥主导作用。中国从近东和中东以及撒

哈拉以南的非洲采购的石油数量日益增加。随着中国对进口石油的依赖度日益飙涨，全球各国对“黑金”的争夺力度必将日趋激烈。阿联酋哈里发大学教授 Muhammad Olimat 在其撰写的《中国和中东：从丝绸之路到阿拉伯之春》(China and the Middle East: from Silk Road to Arab Spring)中进一步指出，石油是阿拉伯世界和中国之间所有纽带的核心驱动因素。他认为， “中沙两国关系的核心是石油，而伊朗与中国在历史、文明、文化和政治方面的关系非常深厚，但目前中国对伊朗的兴趣却主要集中在石油上。”Olimat 声称，随着中国希

望加大从中东地区进口石油的力度，如果中国意图染指该地区的任何其他事务，尤其是“ 阿拉伯之春”运动，那么此举造成的主要后果便是中国与这些国家之间的石油贸易关系会受到较大影响。 Ben Simpfendorfer 曾在香港担任投资银行分析师，目前则是咨询公司 Silk Road Associates 的合伙人，在其 2011 年撰写的首部具有广泛影响力的著作《新丝绸之路》(The New Silk Road) 中清晰阐述了中国和阿拉伯世界日益密切的政治、金融和石油贸易关系。自那时起，中国对中东石油的依赖度便有增无减，而且对全球事务造成了深远影响，包括世界油

中国将努力在未来的世界能源事务中发挥主导作用

费能力，以及这种消费能力将如何拉动东南亚地区的石油需求。整个地区面临着推动城镇化进程、中产阶级崛起以及本地资源匮乏这三大主要问题，而这将在未来 20 年内拉动石油需求和进口海运的发展。最后，Sam Tranum 撰写的《孱弱无力：印度能源短缺及其影响》(Powerless: India's Energy Shortage and Its Impact) 一书中明确提醒我们，如果印度想继续保持增长轨迹，就势必同中国就石油问题开展日益激烈的角逐。曾在加尔各答工作过数年的记者 Tranum 认为，（即使与中国相比）印度急缺扩大能源库所需的大部分资源，以为工业发展提供支持，这些资源包括石油、煤炭、天然气和铀。Tranum 估计，印度在石油、天然气、铀、电力和煤炭领域的能源供需缺口分别为 75% 、49%、56%、35% 和 15%，而且国内与电力有关的大宗商品储量极少。Tranum 认为，正如中国进口能源一样，印度对煤炭、石油和天然气的进口量也将持续增长。他说，非常简单， “目前的可再生技术和资源无法填补印度的供需缺口。” 在可预见的未来，似乎将有越来越多的石油从阿拉伯世界运往东方。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊

■ ■ ■ 意见

海上安居船员应该享受宜居的生活环境，船东在获取利润的同时应该保障船员的利益，Bei Hong 认为

世界各地的休假方式各有不同，但一般的规律是，从商业角度看，夏天的几个月是淡季，因为很多人都放下日常繁杂事务，踏上旅途，犒劳自己。西方世界尤其如此。在美国， “开车季” 的来临让油轮市场感到欢欣（通常并无实据），认为对汽油需求的提升会推升价格。在欧洲，人们纷纷涌向南方，道路变得拥堵不堪，例如法国名字优美的“阳光大道”上挤满了前来度假的车辆。很多旅行者会选择在主要通道沿线的经济型酒店住宿，在旅途中稍事休整。这些酒店提供实用的小型住宿空间，仅仅满足基本需求— — 睡觉，除非特别需要，大家不会希望在这些地方过多停留。上次在这种经济型酒店住宿时，我忍不住想这种经济实惠的住宿方式与船员们住的船舱极为相似。不同之处在于，我只 32

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是在酒店里睡几个小时，然后继续上路，而船舱则曾经在长达 9 个月的时间里成为船员们的家。近些年来，海运行业实施了诸多改进措施，效率、安全或环境保护等各个方面都得到提升，但有一个方面我们似乎在倒退，那就是我们对船员生活环境的期望。我最近登上过一艘船龄16 年的集装箱船，它是由一家韩国造船厂为欧洲船东建造的。最让我震惊的是这艘船的住宿条件— — 船舱宽敞明亮、家具布置周到细微，这表明在为那些长期在此生活和工作的船员们设计居住空间时，确实花费了不少心思。船长告诉我，他一开始还犹豫要不要加入这样一艘古董船，但看到自己的新“家” 时，他的疑虑完全被打消了。当今的船舶建造速度惊人地快，虽然能够确保关于生活

空间的规定得到遵循，但很少（如果有）会考虑创造令人愉悦的工作和生活环境。到处是贴面塑料和其他“干净清爽的”表面，再加上似乎每个住宿区都有的“灰白色”面板，这些在易于修理和保持清洁方面当然是最受欢迎的，但你可能确实并不希望在这样的环境中多做停留。如今，船员们来自世界各国，希望他们都成为好朋友显然不切实际，但提供人们希望停留的环境，更加易于促成使人们凝聚在一起的关键要素——交流。阅读英国作家 Horatio Clare 的杰作《乘船入海》(Down To The Sea In Ships)，你会懂得为什么在一天工作结束后，参加社交聚会点的活动如此重要。这艘船的酒吧位于一个老旧的集装箱船上，可能现在那里根本没有什么可喝的，但至少它

可以为船员们提供一个集会的地方，而不是匆忙拿着一锅方便面回到各自的船舱，在笔记本电脑上播放 DVD。在我还是船舶经纪人的时候，我记得有一次为一名船东卖船，不包含在销售清单中的物品名单长达好几页，主要是一些绘画和带有公司标识的物品，以及船舶图书馆中所有图书的长长的图书目录。只需看看这份清单，你就能想象出船员们下班后的时光有可能十分愉快。如今，不包含在销售清单中的物品名单非常短，可能只有租赁气瓶。《海事劳工公约》的目标十分高尚，旨在提升船员的生活质量。船舶建造商和订购新船的船东们可以为船员的快乐生活提供基础，他们只需注意提供令人愉悦的生活环境，让船员们更愿意回到船上工作。

意见 ■ ■ ■

2014年发展趋势 —武装民船的衰落 Andrew Craig-Bennett 详述私人海上安保公司面临的困境

6岁时，我同父母住在摩加迪沙。那个地方对于小男孩来说非常完美。一天，一个蓄着大黑胡子和满身纹身的男人住进了我家，空余的睡房成了他的房间。他是英国皇家海军中士，因患急性阑尾炎登陆送医。我的父亲曾在英国皇家海军服役，他救了这名海军中士，并帮助他在手术后得以康复。他所在的军舰当时正在执行打击海盗的巡逻任务。几年前，有两件事我们都认为绝不会再看到，第一是宗教战争，第二则是私人武装船。然而，在这两个问题上我们都错了。宗教战争激战正酣，而私人武装船或许也很快将迎来全盛时期。英国一家大型商船武装护卫提供商刚刚陷入破产清算。有非常确切的传言称，该公司可能是第一家，但绝不会是最后一家破产的武装护卫提供

商。许多携带枪支的自由安保人员仍有欠款尚未收回。从业公司数量有所增加，认知风险却在不断下降。船东和租船人采取了常规做法以应对激烈的市场竞争，即通过讨价还价的方式压低价格，因为他们认为自己的船只不会再受到攻击。与此同时，有些船运公司——尤其是部分大型集装箱航运公司——目前运营的船上并未雇佣武装护卫人员，它们希望海盗会认为船上有武装护卫，因为大多数船只都雇佣了武装护卫。我们把它们称为“anti-vaxxers”。结果就是护卫公司收入减少，而成本结构却无法调整。我认为那些自己运营船只

的公司将遭受最大打击，因为它们的固定成本水平最高。它们的船只通常被称为“护卫舰”，但它们在进出“高风险区”时更多地被用作容纳护卫人员及其武器的居住船，从而可使护卫人员在不用上岸的情况下携带军用武器上下船，而在没有军用武器文书的情况下海关绝不会允许出现这种情况。因此，此举可统一避开海关和边防检查，节省大笔代理费和酒店住宿费，但船上会多出几个无所事事的人。定期卸下船员的公司固定成本更低，并能实现更好的盈利。大型企业通常还有其他副业，例如为暴富人群（无论其是否拥有游艇）提供个人安保服务，而且他们非常依赖这些服务。

许多携带枪支的自由安保人员仍有欠款尚未收回

顺便提一句，我们认为适用“帕金森定律”。官僚主义可谓见缝插针，无所不用其极。近期，我的公司便被盘问了数小时，原因是一艘船为执行救援任务而匆忙起航，但船上有一名保镖却证件不齐。有一次，一个讨人喜欢的“安保服务”从业者以面无表情的方式对我讲述了一个故事，他说在该行业早期，曾有一个俄罗斯寡头要求把他那艘不算小的游艇护送到红海对岸。他成功得到了一艘俄罗斯战舰为这座豪华移动宫殿提供全程护航，至于他使用了何种通天手法我们就不要探究了。此外，为了确保这艘灰色战舰与游艇保持足够近的距离，他要求游艇上的女服务员要在整个航行过程中在上层甲板以赤裸上身的方式晒日光浴。这个故事是我在整个安保行业中最喜欢的故事。 Sinoship   2014年秋季刊