2011 WELSH REFERENDUM OPINION POLL MARCH 2011 Presented by: John Poole, Research Director, rmg:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE Tel: 02920 435800 E-mail: john.poole@rmg-uk.co.uk Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
REFERENDUM POLL RMG Clarity conducted an opinion poll on behalf of Media Wales / The Western Mail regarding the referendum on granting more powers to the Welsh Assembly on 3rd March 2011. The survey consisted of 1000 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters, between 25th and 28th February 2011. Interviews were conducted at RMG Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during the day, in the evening and at the weekend. The universe represented is the Welsh electorate (pop 2,280,240). Prior to interviewing the sample frame was designed to be proportional according to parliamentary constituency population. The number of interviews achieved in each constituency are shown in the tables, below. Only those who said that they intended to vote in the upcoming referendum were asked which way they would vote. Those who did not intend to vote were excluded from the survey. This opinion poll sought to gather Welsh voters’ opinions on the forthcoming referendum and wider political concerns. To this end, the survey asked: Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? For further information on this survey, please contact RMG Clarity Research Director, John Poole (details on frontpage).
TABULATIONS BY CONSTITUENCY Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency Base: respondents Base: All respondents Yes
All
Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South Cynon Valley Wrexham and Penarth
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes
Swansea Ogmore East
Carmarthen Dwyfor West and South Meirionnydd Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Llanelli Cardiff Central Radnorshire
25
26
25
21
25
25
27
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
25
26
25
21
25
25
27
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes
Pontypridd Ynys M么n Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil Newport West Cardiff North Gower and Rhymney
26
22
23
23
27
29
27
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
26
22
23
23
27
29
27
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Vale Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes
of
Bridgend
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
22
26
23
26
31
26
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Vale Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes
of
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes
Bridgend
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
25
30
27
25
23
24
27
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
25
30
27
25
23
24
27
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency Base: respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
All
Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South Cynon Valley Wrexham and Penarth
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
494
10
14
12
14
13
12
49.4%
1.0%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
223
8
8
4
10
2
5
22.3%
.8%
.8%
.4%
1.0%
.2%
.5%
283
6
6
5
8
7
6
28.3%
.6%
.6%
.5%
.8%
.7%
.6%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy
27
27
18
24
25
20
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
12
14
14
14
13
11
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
9
9
2
6
6
4
.9%
.9%
.2%
.6%
.6%
.4%
6
4
2
4
6
5
.6%
.4%
.2%
.4%
.6%
.5%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
Swansea Blaenau Gwent Ogmore East
Carmarthen Dwyfor West and South Meirionnydd Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Radnorshire
23
25
26
25
21
25
2.3%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
11
16
13
11
14
7
1.1%
1.6%
1.3%
1.1%
1.4%
.7%
4
1
6
3
1
7
.4%
.1%
.6%
.3%
.1%
.7%
8
8
7
11
6
11
.8%
.8%
.7%
1.1%
.6%
1.1%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
Llanelli Cardiff Central Pontypridd Ynys M么n Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil Newport West and Rhymney
25
27
26
22
23
23
27
2.5%
2.7%
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
15
12
11
10
9
10
17
1.5%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
.9%
1.0%
1.7%
3
7
10
5
3
3
4
.3%
.7%
1.0%
.5%
.3%
.3%
.4%
7
8
5
7
11
10
6
.7%
.8%
.5%
.7%
1.1%
1.0%
.6%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
Cardiff North Gower
Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr
29
27
22
26
23
26
2.9%
2.7%
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
16
15
7
11
14
10
1.6%
1.5%
.7%
1.1%
1.4%
1.0%
5
5
8
4
6
9
.5%
.5%
.8%
.4%
.6%
.9%
8
7
7
11
3
7
.8%
.7%
.7%
1.1%
.3%
.7%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency Vale Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
of
Bridgend
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon
31
26
25
30
27
25
23
3.1%
2.6%
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
15
14
16
11
10
11
15
1.5%
1.4%
1.6%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
1.5%
7
7
3
7
10
4
4
.7%
.7%
.3%
.7%
1.0%
.4%
.4%
9
5
6
12
7
10
4
.9%
.5%
.6%
1.2%
.7%
1.0%
.4%
Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No? Constituency Islwyn Torfaen Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know - not yet decided
24
27
2.4%
2.7%
10
10
1.0%
1.0%
7
7
.7%
.7%
7
10
.7%
1.0%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Base: respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
All
Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South Cynon Valley Wrexham and Penarth
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
567
12
16
13
16
16
16
56.7%
1.2%
1.6%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
260
9
9
5
11
3
5
26.0%
.9%
.9%
.5%
1.1%
.3%
.5%
173
3
3
3
5
3
2
17.3%
.3%
.3%
.3%
.5%
.3%
.2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
11
16
12
16
13
12
10
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
11
10
4
5
5
4
9
1.1%
1.0%
.4%
.5%
.5%
.4%
.9%
5
1
2
3
7
4
4
.5%
.1%
.2%
.3%
.7%
.4%
.4%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Swansea Ogmore East
Carmarthen Dwyfor West and South Meirionnydd Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Llanelli Cardiff Central Radnorshire
25
26
25
21
25
25
27
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
18
13
13
16
14
15
17
1.8%
1.3%
1.3%
1.6%
1.4%
1.5%
1.7%
2
4
4
3
9
4
5
.2%
.4%
.4%
.3%
.9%
.4%
.5%
5
9
8
2
2
6
5
.5%
.9%
.8%
.2%
.2%
.6%
.5%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Pontypridd Ynys M么n Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil Newport West Cardiff North Gower and Rhymney
26
22
23
23
27
29
27
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
11
11
15
16
14
13
17
1.1%
1.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.7%
10
7
5
4
4
9
8
1.0%
.7%
.5%
.4%
.4%
.9%
.8%
5
4
3
3
9
7
2
.5%
.4%
.3%
.3%
.9%
.7%
.2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Vale Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
of
Bridgend
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
11
16
16
12
14
17
1.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
6
5
6
10
11
7
.6%
.5%
.6%
1.0%
1.1%
.7%
5
5
1
4
6
2
.5%
.5%
.1%
.4%
.6%
.2%
Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
25
30
27
25
23
24
27
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
17
10
14
15
18
13
12
1.7%
1.0%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
1.3%
1.2%
4
6
10
5
4
9
9
.4%
.6%
1.0%
.5%
.4%
.9%
.9%
4
14
3
5
1
2
6
.4%
1.4%
.3%
.5%
.1%
.2%
.6%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Base: respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
All
Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South Cynon Valley Wrexham and Penarth
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
541
9
15
14
16
16
13
54.1%
.9%
1.5%
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.3%
340
13
9
7
14
3
9
34.0%
1.3%
.9%
.7%
1.4%
.3%
.9%
119
2
4
0
2
3
1
11.9%
.2%
.4%
.0%
.2%
.3%
.1%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
8
13
13
17
11
13
14
.8%
1.3%
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
18
11
4
6
11
5
8
1.8%
1.1%
.4%
.6%
1.1%
.5%
.8%
1
3
1
1
3
2
1
.1%
.3%
.1%
.1%
.3%
.2%
.1%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Swansea Ogmore East
Carmarthen Dwyfor West and South Meirionnydd Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Llanelli Cardiff Central Radnorshire
25
26
25
21
25
25
27
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
16
15
12
13
11
16
15
1.6%
1.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.1%
1.6%
1.5%
5
8
8
4
13
5
9
.5%
.8%
.8%
.4%
1.3%
.5%
.9%
4
3
5
4
1
4
3
.4%
.3%
.5%
.4%
.1%
.4%
.3%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Pontypridd Ynys M么n Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil Newport West Cardiff North Gower and Rhymney
26
22
23
23
27
29
27
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
12
9
15
15
15
15
17
1.2%
.9%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.7%
10
10
5
5
7
9
8
1.0%
1.0%
.5%
.5%
.7%
.9%
.8%
4
3
3
3
5
5
2
.4%
.3%
.3%
.3%
.5%
.5%
.2%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Vale Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
of
Bridgend
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
10
11
15
14
16
10
1.0%
1.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
9
7
7
9
11
13
.9%
.7%
.7%
.9%
1.1%
1.3%
3
8
1
3
4
3
.3%
.8%
.1%
.3%
.4%
.3%
Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
25
30
27
25
23
24
27
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
18
8
14
16
13
14
14
1.8%
.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
3
11
12
6
7
9
12
.3%
1.1%
1.2%
.6%
.7%
.9%
1.2%
4
11
1
3
3
1
1
.4%
1.1%
.1%
.3%
.3%
.1%
.1%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency Base: respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
All
Newport East Cardiff West Delyn
Cardiff South Cynon Valley Wrexham and Penarth
1000
24
28
21
32
22
23
100.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
407
8
10
10
12
8
10
40.7%
.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
.8%
1.0%
429
11
14
11
11
10
11
42.9%
1.1%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
164
5
4
0
9
4
2
16.4%
.5%
.4%
.0%
.9%
.4%
.2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
9
8
4
4
9
11
7
.9%
.8%
.4%
.4%
.9%
1.1%
.7%
14
16
12
8
13
7
13
1.4%
1.6%
1.2%
.8%
1.3%
.7%
1.3%
4
3
2
12
3
2
3
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency Alyn Deeside Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
and
Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent
27
27
18
24
25
20
23
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
9
8
4
4
9
11
7
.9%
.8%
.4%
.4%
.9%
1.1%
.7%
14
16
12
8
13
7
13
1.4%
1.6%
1.2%
.8%
1.3%
.7%
1.3%
4
3
2
12
3
2
3
.4%
.3%
.2%
1.2%
.3%
.2%
.3%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Swansea Ogmore East
Carmarthen Dwyfor West and South Meirionnydd Pembrokeshire
Brecon and Llanelli Cardiff Central Radnorshire
25
26
25
21
25
25
27
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
10
9
9
12
10
6
13
1.0%
.9%
.9%
1.2%
1.0%
.6%
1.3%
13
12
10
8
8
14
12
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
.8%
.8%
1.4%
1.2%
2
5
6
1
7
5
2
.2%
.5%
.6%
.1%
.7%
.5%
.2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Pontypridd Ynys M么n Rhondda
Merthyr Tydfil Newport West Cardiff North Gower and Rhymney
26
22
23
23
27
29
27
2.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
14
13
7
8
12
13
16
1.4%
1.3%
.7%
.8%
1.2%
1.3%
1.6%
6
5
9
12
10
13
9
.6%
.5%
.9%
1.2%
1.0%
1.3%
.9%
6
4
7
3
5
3
2
.6%
.4%
.7%
.3%
.5%
.3%
.2%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency Montgomeryshir Carmarthen East Vale Clwyd West Ceredigion e and Dinefwr Glamorgan Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
of
Bridgend
22
26
23
26
31
26
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
10
12
9
12
14
15
1.0%
1.2%
.9%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
10
9
13
14
8
10
1.0%
.9%
1.3%
1.4%
.8%
1.0%
2
5
1
0
9
1
.2%
.5%
.1%
.0%
.9%
.1%
Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut? Constituency
Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know/ unsure
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen
25
30
27
25
23
24
27
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
10
12
11
8
9
9
14
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
.8%
.9%
.9%
1.4%
12
12
11
10
10
10
8
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
.8%
3
6
5
7
4
5
5
.3%
.6%
.5%
.7%
.4%
.5%
.5%
RMG BACKGROUND RMG has been in business since 1968 and consists of 35 full time staff and over 60 casual staff. RMG is wholly owned by its Directors following a management buy-out in October 2009.
QUALITY We pride ourselves on the quality of work that we deliver. To maintain the highest standards we are Market Research Society (MRS) Company Partners and Direct Marketing Association (DMA) Company Partners upholding their codes of practice. We are an Investors in People company and believe that our competitive advantage is founded upon the superior expertise of our staff. Emphasising our commitment to quality, all our market research projects are delivered to the ISO20252 and Interviewer Quality Control Scheme (IQCS) standards.
OUR VISION AND MISSION STATEMENT ‘Our vision is to be a vibrant and profitable brand by securing the place of ‘first choice’ through the consistent delivery of exceptional services by extraordinary people who take pride in their work.’
OUR VALUES Integral:
We are part of our customers business
Commercial: Brain power comes before manpower Quality:
We take pride in everything we do
Friendly:
We always make our clients happy
Secure:
Our clients reputation is our reputation
Sustainable: We think about the future of our planet, as well as the future of our business.