Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll, 2011 by RMG-UK

WELSH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS OPINION POLL 2011 APRIL 2011 Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE Tel: 02920 435800 E-mail: john.hurst@rmg-uk.co.uk Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk

INTRODUCTION This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming Welsh Assembly on 5th May 2011.

METHODOLOGY The opinion poll consisted of 1005 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters between 4th April and 5th April 2011 and 44 surveys completed online within the same timeframe. This totals 1049 surveys. The telephone interviews were conducted at RMG:Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during the day and in the evening. For the telephone survey target numbers of interviews were set according to parliamentary constituency population. After interviewing, the online data was merged with the telephone data and the survey was weighted by parliamentary constituency, socio-economic group, gender, age group, household tenure and Welsh language skills in order to provide the most representative result possible. The overall election prediction is calculated from question Q2a and Q2b. The results have also been weighted by likelihood to vote (Q1). Those who stated they were certain to vote are weighted 1, those who said ‘9’, 0.9 and so on. Only those who gave an answer of 5 or more have been included in the overall prediction. Those who said ‘don’t know/refused’ at both Q2a and Q2b were not included in the prediction. Full weighted and unweighted tabulations are included in this report. The following discussion uses the weighted results.

DISCUSSION Table 1 (Q2c) Q2c. Aggregated voting intention

The table to the left shows the aggregated, weighted overall voting intention. It shows that Labour have fractionally over half of the vote share (50.8%), whilst the Conservatives have just over a fifth (20.3%). Plaid Cymru are the third party at 16.7%, whilst the Liberal Democrats have 7.6% of the vote share.

Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrat Other

50.8%

Green UKIP BNP

1.4%

20.3% 16.7% 7.6% 1.5% 1.2%

.4% Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party (748)

Table 2 (Q3) Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition Don't know Base: All respondents (1040)

% 16.7% 28.5% 8.4% 7.4% 12.4% 26.6%

Table 2 shows that the respondents would prefer a Labour-Plaid coalition if no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly. A Labour minority government is the second favourite option, although over a quarter did not know what they would prefer in this situation.

Table 3 Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Yes No Don't know

% 56.2% 30.9% 12.9%

Table 3 shows that over half of the respondents (56.2%) would like to see the Assembly gaining responsibility for the Police and the criminal justice system, whilst 30.9% do not.

Base: All respondents (1040)

Table 4 Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?

Yes

55.8%

36.2%

Don't know

8.0%

Similarly, over half of respondents (55.8%) would like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes, whilst 36.2% do not.

Base: All respondents (1040)

Table 5 Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?

Yes

40.2%

41.6%

Don't know

18.2%

Base: All respondents (1040)

Two fifths of respondents (40.2%) do think that they will see a non Labour-led Assembly in their lifetime, although slightly more (41.6%) do not think they will see this.

Table 6 Q7. Does this make you feel?

Happy

21.1%

Frustrated

20.3%

Neither

58.6%

According to Table 6, most people are neither happy nor frustrated by the likelihood of Labour remaining in power in the Assembly (58.6%).

Base: All respondents (1040)

Table 7 Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?

Yes

25.1%

60.2%

Don't know

14.7%

Three-fifths of respondents do not think that they will ever see the Conservatives as part of the Assembly Government (60.2%), although a quarter (25.1%) think it is possible.

Base: All respondents (1040)

Table 8 Q9. Does this make you feel?

Happy

27.6%

Frustrated

17.9%

Neither

54.5%

Base: All respondents (1040)

Over half of respondents are neither happy nor frustrated by the likelihood of the Conservatives gaining power in Wales.

WEIGHTED TABULATIONS

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? SEG

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

5.6%

3.5%

5.7%

6.0%

6.6%

6.1%

5.9%

5.3%

1.3%

1.4%

.5%

3.0%

1.1%

.0%

2.4%

.3%

.9%

2.2%

1.3%

.0%

.7%

1.0%

1.2%

.9%

1.1%

2.2%

.4%

3.4%

1.7%

.7%

6.0%

5.3%

5.8%

2.6%

9.0%

8.7%

3.8%

7.8%

3.2%

4.9%

1.2%

5.3%

2.8%

3.5%

2.9%

3.3%

3.2%

4.5%

3.4%

2.7%

.0%

2.6%

3.8%

9.1%

8.1%

10.0%

5.6%

11.7%

6.3%

9.8%

8.4%

3.9%

5.0%

2.8%

2.2%

5.7%

6.4%

4.1%

3.8%

670

121

243

141

145

316

353

64.4%

63.6%

67.3%

68.4%

57.5%

65.7%

64.7%

64.2%

1.4%

.5%

.8%

2.0%

2.5%

.0%

1.4%

113

161

236

429

100.0%

10.5%

17.7%

7.1%

7.6%

5.2%

3.1%

.0%

20.4%

3.2%

.0%

1.1%

.8%

.6%

.0%

3.0%

1.0%

1.1%

1.9%

.0%

21.1%

.0%

.9%

1.2%

1.5%

.0%

15.4%

12.6%

7.7%

4.2%

4.0%

.0%

6.3%

6.0%

4.8%

3.1%

1.8%

.0%

9.3%

2.9%

5.4%

6.0%

2.5%

1.8%

.0%

28.4%

5.6%

8.9%

6.9%

8.8%

9.3%

9.2%

.0%

4.1%

4.9%

5.2%

3.2%

9.6%

157

315

10.3%

46.0%

52.8%

58.6%

66.4%

73.4%

81.2%

.0%

1.1%

.0%

.4%

2.8%

.0%

5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote

Refused

3 4

65 years or above

Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

842

111

100.0%

4.8%

9.2%

8.4%

10.7%

1.3%

.0%

7.9%

1.1%

.0%

1.1%

6.0%

.0%

5.4%

8.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.9%

11.3%

2.0%

2.3%

3.6%

4.8%

.9%

.0%

9.3%

10.6%

5.9%

10.7%

3.6%

7.5%

4.3%

5.6%

555

65.9%

42.4%

66.9%

53.0%

1.2%

.0%

3.2%

2.5%

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

3.7%

3.2%

8.9%

5.9%

4.4%

5.8%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

1.8%

2.2%

1.3%

2.6%

.0%

.9%

.8%

.0%

12.1%

.0%

1.3%

6.6%

3.2%

.0%

7.6%

9.3%

5.6%

3.8%

2.9%

8.4%

2.8%

2.1%

3.1%

2.1%

3.5%

.0%

2.5%

.0%

3.8%

7.6%

11.2%

13.6%

3.4%

10.7%

2.7%

.0%

5.7%

2.3%

4.0%

111

431

68.4%

72.8%

57.1%

69.2%

74.3%

62.1%

1.8%

.0%

1.2%

2.0%

1.4%

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

670

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

670

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Constituency Base: All respondents Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly

1040

100.0%

5.6%

.0%

4.6%

10.4%

.0%

12.0%

3.7%

6.8%

1.3%

.0%

12.6%

.0%

6.1%

.9%

.0%

3.5%

.0%

1.2%

4.1%

.0%

6.0%

7.9%

13.1%

.0%

8.0%

9.2%

4.7%

.0%

8.9%

3.2%

12.1%

.0%

3.4%

3.0%

3.3%

3.2%

.0%

15.2%

7.0%

5.5%

.0%

6.8%

.0%

9.1%

19.9%

4.2%

10.4%

16.5%

8.1%

7.6%

9.8%

15.4%

3.9%

3.8%

.0%

14.9%

4.2%

4.0%

6.4%

2.7%

670

64.4%

52.2%

58.6%

68.7%

42.5%

78.5%

68.3%

70.4%

56.7%

1.4%

.0%

4.4%

.0%

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?

Cardiff Central Cardiff North Base: All respondents

Cardiff South and Penarth

Constituency Carmarthen Cardiff West East and Dinefwr

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Pembrokeshire

100.0%

3.1%

9.4%

10.1%

3.1%

15.6%

.0%

4.1%

8.2%

.0%

3.0%

2.4%

.0%

9.8%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

3.4%

8.6%

5.9%

6.7%

3.9%

7.5%

6.5%

3.2%

6.5%

2.8%

2.3%

2.9%

.0%

9.6%

.0%

6.7%

.0%

6.1%

3.5%

9.6%

11.2%

4.1%

10.9%

11.5%

8.1%

3.5%

2.9%

3.9%

7.9%

27.4%

3.9%

.0%

3.1%

2.9%

7.1%

3.9%

.0%

65.5%

64.7%

71.2%

74.6%

71.2%

52.5%

66.3%

53.7%

.0%

1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know (câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Constituency Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower Islwyn Llanelli

100.0%

6.5%

4.4%

.0%

3.8%

.0%

8.2%

.0%

7.2%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

4.0%

8.3%

.0%

12.0%

.0%

3.8%

3.1%

.0%

4.5%

8.1%

8.4%

7.2%

4.7%

10.3%

12.8%

11.9%

.0%

11.2%

.0%

8.8%

.0%

6.2%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.1%

.0%

12.5%

14.1%

11.6%

12.5%

18.3%

12.4%

9.5%

3.9%

3.2%

4.0%

.0%

4.1%

.0%

9.3%

11.8%

8.0%

6.2%

9.6%

.0%

5.7%

60.6%

64.5%

66.7%

62.5%

59.9%

66.8%

61.9%

78.1%

68.8%

64.7%

7.0%

.0%

3.0%

.0%

3.0%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Monmouth and Rhymney re

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Constituency Preseli Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Pembrokeshire Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

100.0%

28.0%

4.8%

3.7%

11.1%

.0%

17.4%

.0%

6.2%

.0%

2.8%

.0%

3.8%

.0%

3.5%

.0%

4.7%

.0%

6.9%

4.3%

.0%

3.9%

.0%

11.9%

.0%

3.8%

8.9%

14.4%

6.7%

15.3%

6.4%

7.1%

4.5%

.0%

8.7%

3.8%

3.3%

.0%

10.9%

.0%

5.5%

2.5%

.0%

3.8%

3.4%

.0%

8.1%

7.2%

7.4%

.0%

9.2%

7.7%

3.2%

.0%

3.5%

3.3%

9.1%

10.4%

5.2%

6.5%

4.1%

8.9%

.0%

8.7%

.0%

8.8%

3.3%

2.6%

3.3%

36.6%

51.9%

76.3%

62.8%

67.6%

74.2%

65.5%

73.6%

63.1%

60.4%

3.1%

4.3%

.0%

3.5%

3.0%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.0%

4.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote

100.0%

14.5%

6.6%

3.7%

4.7%

.0%

10.6%

3.5%

4.0%

13.4%

.0%

2.9%

.0%

7.6%

4.1%

3.7%

9.4%

14.9%

10.5%

.0%

3.0%

3.5%

4.2%

66.6%

74.6%

61.7%

63.1%

4.7%

.0%

4.6%

.0%

2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote

Constituency Vale of Wrexham Ynys M么n Glamorgan

Don't know

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? SEG

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote

A/B

D/E

933

174

327

179

225

100.0%

Refused Male Female 27

430

503

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

306

149

156

32.8%

27.3%

26.0%

40.5%

41.3%

28.8%

34.7%

31.1%

108

11.6%

17.8%

13.6%

9.0%

6.1%

11.2%

12.8%

10.6%

4.7%

4.9%

4.7%

4.3%

5.1%

3.4%

4.9%

4.6%

10.1%

6.1%

12.8%

9.9%

10.4%

3.3%

11.8%

8.7%

1.1%

2.3%

1.2%

.5%

.0%

1.3%

.9%

.7%

1.0%

.6%

.5%

3.2%

1.1%

.4%

.3%

.0%

1.1%

.5%

.0%

.7%

.0%

302

113

112

189

32.4%

36.3%

34.5%

29.3%

28.7%

31.9%

26.1%

37.7%

.1%

.0%

.4%

.0%

.2%

.1%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.2%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

65 years or above

Refused

102

143

213

401

100.0%

145

.0%

26.5%

28.4%

32.6%

36.2%

24.2%

41.0%

4.5%

4.1%

10.0%

13.5%

12.8%

14.6%

21.2%

3.9%

4.1%

5.8%

3.4%

5.0%

.0%

19.3%

21.8%

11.3%

11.9%

12.0%

7.0%

4.7%

.0%

7.8%

4.2%

.6%

.8%

.0%

1.0%

.7%

.5%

.9%

.0%

1.4%

.5%

.0%

131

18.5%

27.8%

38.8%

31.1%

30.6%

32.8%

37.2%

.0%

.2%

.0%

.2%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

763

100.0%

228

29.8%

26.0%

59.3%

31.3%

12.2%

16.3%

3.2%

17.0%

4.5%

11.9%

3.4%

3.6%

10.3%

9.0%

10.8%

3.5%

1.3%

.0%

.8%

.0%

.1%

.0%

2.3%

.0%

264

34.6%

27.4%

18.8%

27.5%

.1%

.0%

.1%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

146

619

100.0%

210

44.1%

35.7%

36.8%

20.9%

30.0%

34.0%

12.1%

18.3%

16.9%

4.3%

9.2%

13.0%

3.1%

.0%

11.7%

4.3%

5.1%

5.0%

5.2%

.0%

4.7%

34.8%

9.6%

5.6%

.0%

3.2%

5.3%

1.7%

5.9%

.6%

.0%

4.9%

.0%

2.4%

.8%

.0%

.5%

214

32.1%

28.6%

14.7%

26.5%

29.1%

34.6%

.0%

.7%

.0%

.6%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 5 6 7 8 9 vote Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

670

100.0%

237

26.9%

40.6%

23.9%

22.8%

22.0%

35.5%

11.1%

8.6%

19.4%

18.6%

8.6%

10.6%

3.3%

5.7%

.0%

8.1%

11.3%

4.2%

10.3%

5.8%

13.0%

6.9%

11.6%

10.5%

.0%

2.7%

1.1%

.0%

1.2%

.0%

3.1%

1.8%

.0%

.6%

1.5%

.0%

.3%

204

44.0%

36.7%

32.1%

32.7%

42.0%

30.4%

.0%

1.0%

.0%

.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? SEG

Plaid or lib dem Other

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote

A/B

D/E Refused Male Female

.1%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.2%

5.8%

4.2%

5.7%

5.0%

6.5%

18.1%

6.1%

5.6%

.1%

.0%

.4%

.0%

.3%

.0%

(c…

Refused Socialist Labour Party

65 years or above

Refused

.0%

.2%

.0%

7.7%

6.7%

5.9%

6.1%

4.8%

19.2%

.0%

1.3%

.0%

(c…

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Tenure Owner occupied Plaid or lib dem Other

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Rented from private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

.1%

.0%

5.9%

6.3%

2.2%

17.1%

.0%

3.1%

.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

.0%

.6%

.0%

3.4%

14.2%

5.0%

5.5%

5.0%

5.9%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Refused Socialist Labour Party

.0%

.1%

3.0%

2.6%

5.9%

5.5%

4.5%

6.4%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Base: Those likely to vote Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

933

100.0%

306

32.8%

58.4%

24.9%

20.2%

14.8%

51.6%

17.9%

25.3%

38.9%

21.2%

28.4%

108

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

35.8%

33.8%

8.3%

23.8%

13.2%

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

20.0%

9.4%

38.7%

60.8%

4.7%

50.7%

(c…

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 22

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

30.5%

48.2%

48.3%

38.0%

5.3%

31.2%

42.8%

43.0%

40.0%

40.8%

36.7%

44.1%

(c…

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

33.3%

39.1%

33.4%

58.8%

26.8%

38.6%

19.1%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Base: Those likely to vote Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Plaid or Labour Other Plaid or lib dem Refused Socialist Labour Party

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

11.6%

7.8%

4.9%

15.4%

6.3%

.0%

9.8%

21.4%

.0%

6.7%

21.3%

4.7%

4.8%

9.9%

4.4%

13.9%

.0%

14.5%

.0%

17.4%

.0%

10.1%

.0%

5.1%

4.3%

19.6%

3.7%

14.4%

.0%

10.7%

3.1%

13.0%

1.1%

.0%

5.8%

.0%

.7%

.0%

4.6%

4.3%

4.5%

4.3%

.0%

3.9%

.0%

.3%

.0%

3.8%

.0%

302

32.4%

14.0%

46.1%

36.4%

30.7%

32.7%

39.3%

34.7%

42.4%

38.8%

30.6%

.1%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

.1%

.0%

.1%

.0%

4.1%

.0%

5.8%

8.4%

4.6%

15.1%

5.1%

3.9%

.0%

18.6%

4.0%

7.0%

6.7%

.1%

6.5%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency

Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Plaid or Labour Other Plaid or lib dem Refused Socialist Labour Party

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

14.1%

13.2%

7.5%

3.8%

8.1%

19.2%

33.4%

4.7%

3.3%

.0%

3.6%

24.8%

3.9%

2.8%

13.2%

42.4%

20.1%

6.3%

5.7%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

8.0%

14.6%

7.2%

3.6%

4.6%

.0%

4.9%

.0%

22.7%

12.9%

24.1%

.0%

7.9%

47.8%

11.5%

.0%

3.8%

4.6%

.0%

23.4%

26.4%

33.6%

48.7%

22.9%

35.9%

29.4%

47.8%

19.5%

28.0%

27.0%

.0%

2.8%

.0%

11.5%

7.8%

8.1%

.0%

4.6%

3.5%

.0%

4.2%

3.8%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Plaid or Labour Other Plaid or lib dem Refused Socialist Labour Party

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

.0%

3.8%

8.3%

28.9%

14.7%

19.4%

4.8%

3.7%

8.0%

13.5%

25.6%

.0%

4.9%

.0%

3.6%

8.0%

6.5%

.0%

15.4%

4.0%

.0%

7.4%

4.2%

4.9%

18.5%

6.8%

4.3%

4.1%

5.3%

5.7%

.0%

14.2%

4.2%

4.8%

11.6%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

4.5%

5.6%

.0%

4.6%

.0%

4.5%

.0%

6.3%

.0%

41.9%

24.7%

28.0%

20.9%

58.9%

32.0%

23.0%

32.8%

32.3%

30.3%

28.7%

39.4%

.0%

4.1%

16.6%

7.5%

.0%

5.4%

9.6%

12.0%

.0%

3.9%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Don’t know Labour or Conservative Plaid or Labour Other Plaid or lib dem Refused Socialist Labour Party

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

13.4%

5.6%

14.0%

13.6%

27.4%

15.9%

17.5%

3.7%

8.1%

.0%

3.3%

4.2%

.0%

10.0%

11.2%

4.5%

9.2%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

4.9%

.0%

32.5%

28.4%

38.5%

18.4%

32.0%

36.3%

36.8%

.0%

7.2%

7.6%

9.6%

.0%

10.5%

.0%

6.7%

.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? SEG

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a

A/B

D/E

302

113

100.0%

Refused Male Female 9

112

189

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

24.6%

23.5%

23.2%

26.2%

27.1%

23.6%

26.9%

23.3%

14.4%

17.2%

18.9%

11.8%

6.2%

11.6%

12.9%

15.3%

4.3%

1.4%

7.1%

6.0%

1.7%

.0%

4.5%

4.3%

10.2%

9.3%

10.8%

11.3%

11.5%

8.7%

11.1%

.9%

1.4%

.0%

1.7%

1.5%

.0%

2.5%

.0%

128

42.5%

40.6%

39.9%

40.3%

49.1%

53.4%

40.4%

43.7%

.3%

.0%

1.7%

.0%

.8%

.0%

.3%

.0%

1.5%

.0%

.4%

.3%

1.4%

.0%

.5%

2.2%

4.3%

1.6%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

3.3%

1.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

65 years or above

Refused

131

100.0%

.0%

42.9%

25.0%

35.1%

21.8%

22.7%

.0%

100.0%

30.1%

10.6%

6.3%

15.0%

14.4%

24.7%

.0%

13.5%

5.4%

4.6%

3.4%

.0%

10.7%

11.3%

10.1%

10.7%

12.9%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

13.6%

48.4%

38.4%

41.3%

44.7%

62.4%

.0%

.7%

.0%

1.2%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

4.2%

3.1%

2.0%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

264

100.0%

25.6%

10.5%

24.0%

13.3%

15.0%

15.2%

.0%

24.6%

4.5%

10.1%

.0%

9.2%

10.3%

23.6%

12.8%

1.1%

.0%

108

41.1%

53.8%

52.4%

49.3%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

2.5%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

214

100.0%

40.8%

22.2%

33.6%

18.0%

26.5%

23.6%

12.2%

11.4%

.0%

13.1%

16.9%

15.0%

.0%

19.4%

.0%

5.5%

.0%

4.4%

6.5%

13.9%

32.2%

20.9%

24.6%

7.7%

.0%

1.3%

37.5%

33.1%

34.2%

42.6%

32.0%

44.1%

.0%

.4%

2.9%

.0%

.4%

.0%

3.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 5 6 7 8 9 vote Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

204

100.0%

24.3%

29.6%

8.8%

8.7%

36.2%

26.7%

6.6%

.0%

19.0%

25.2%

15.7%

14.3%

.0%

11.2%

7.7%

5.7%

4.2%

7.0%

.0%

11.4%

11.8%

11.4%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

.9%

61.5%

63.4%

61.0%

38.1%

30.5%

39.4%

.0%

.4%

.0%

.4%

.0%

2.9%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

2.9%

.0%

2.3%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Constituency Base: Those likely to vote Aberavon Aberconwy and 'don't know' at Q2a Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

302

100.0%

24.6%

28.2%

22.2%

.0%

37.5%

.0%

10.7%

20.1%

31.9%

8.8%

14.4%

30.5%

32.6%

17.8%

.0%

35.8%

.0%

7.3%

9.8%

4.3%

.0%

14.4%

.0%

21.1%

.0%

16.7%

10.2%

.0%

10.0%

11.8%

.0%

11.7%

10.9%

33.9%

10.2%

.9%

.0%

11.2%

.0%

128

42.5%

41.3%

20.8%

59.2%

62.5%

64.2%

56.5%

68.9%

26.9%

44.7%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

2.2%

.0%

9.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

11.1%

12.5%

24.6%

11.5%

22.7%

31.4%

20.7%

25.1%

55.0%

17.9%

10.8%

12.1%

.0%

15.2%

16.6%

29.2%

14.7%

17.1%

59.8%

.0%

17.8%

.0%

13.2%

.0%

29.4%

56.2%

.0%

18.2%

.0%

14.4%

.0%

11.2%

.0%

56.0%

75.4%

46.0%

21.0%

62.1%

16.0%

50.1%

32.6%

27.9%

22.2%

.0%

10.9%

.0%

11.3%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Dwyfor Meirionnydd Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Don’t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

5 100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 7

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

24.4%

26.7%

66.4%

28.2%

41.7%

59.6%

.0%

36.4%

.0%

32.6%

58.4%

36.6%

27.3%

.0%

30.6%

18.8%

24.3%

15.7%

.0%

35.0%

.0%

13.7%

.0%

9.7%

.0%

39.0%

.0%

11.1%

30.4%

.0%

7.7%

15.6%

.0%

32.3%

11.2%

41.4%

27.8%

21.6%

58.3%

32.3%

60.0%

21.0%

41.6%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

11.3%

.0%

11.4%

.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? Constituency Pontypridd Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Don’t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

22.5%

30.4%

69.7%

10.0%

11.8%

11.4%

28.8%

11.7%

21.5%

25.5%

11.9%

14.1%

.0%

9.8%

.0%

11.9%

.0%

10.5%

22.3%

24.4%

.0%

14.1%

.0%

12.8%

.0%

30.0%

.0%

9.3%

32.3%

.0%

24.4%

.0%

13.5%

12.2%

.0%

10.5%

.0%

65.6%

41.4%

11.7%

47.8%

54.2%

76.7%

46.9%

67.5%

12.7%

37.9%

.0%

9.2%

.0%

10.7%

.0%

10.3%

.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention SEG

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

A/B

D/E

748

141

263

147

179

100.0%

Refused Male Female 18

357

391

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

380

111

180

201

50.8%

44.2%

42.2%

58.5%

61.8%

56.0%

50.2%

51.3%

152

20.3%

29.7%

25.0%

15.2%

9.9%

23.0%

19.4%

21.0%

7.6%

6.7%

8.9%

7.4%

7.0%

5.3%

7.3%

8.0%

125

16.7%

12.1%

19.8%

15.8%

17.2%

10.8%

16.9%

16.6%

1.4%

2.9%

1.5%

.6%

.0%

1.5%

1.2%

1.9%

.7%

1.2%

1.1%

4.9%

2.1%

.5%

.4%

.0%

1.4%

.7%

.0%

.9%

.0%

1.5%

2.5%

1.9%

.0%

1.7%

.0%

1.7%

1.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

65 years or above

Refused

118

172

322

100.0%

175

.0%

43.4%

51.1%

53.0%

48.6%

54.3%

42.0%

59.5%

14.5%

11.0%

14.5%

22.3%

21.8%

41.4%

21.2%

8.6%

8.3%

8.8%

6.0%

7.6%

.0%

19.3%

24.7%

20.7%

18.7%

18.6%

13.1%

16.6%

.0%

8.8%

5.7%

.8%

1.0%

.0%

1.4%

.8%

1.1%

1.6%

.0%

1.7%

.7%

.0%

1.8%

1.6%

1.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

608

100.0%

295

48.5%

36.6%

72.5%

50.4%

133

21.9%

25.9%

3.6%

34.2%

7.6%

18.5%

3.9%

5.2%

103

17.0%

15.0%

17.3%

10.1%

1.7%

.0%

1.5%

.0%

.1%

.0%

2.6%

.0%

1.7%

4.0%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

122

487

100.0%

261

68.4%

55.0%

46.4%

30.8%

44.0%

53.6%

113

19.2%

28.2%

18.7%

9.4%

16.5%

23.1%

3.8%

7.3%

13.0%

7.0%

6.0%

8.3%

8.7%

5.2%

10.5%

48.6%

19.6%

10.5%

.0%

4.3%

5.9%

2.0%

6.9%

.8%

.0%

5.4%

.0%

2.8%

1.6%

.0%

.7%

.0%

2.3%

4.3%

1.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 5 6 7 8 9 vote Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

545

100.0%

292

53.7%

69.4%

35.9%

31.2%

45.1%

53.5%

100

20.1%

11.6%

34.2%

32.7%

18.4%

4.6%

7.7%

4.8%

13.0%

16.6%

6.7%

17.4%

11.3%

17.4%

13.0%

20.0%

17.2%

.0%

3.6%

1.4%

.0%

1.5%

.0%

4.1%

3.4%

.0%

1.0%

2.1%

.0%

.4%

2.1%

.0%

5.3%

.0%

1.2%

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

748

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

(c…

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Dwyfor Meirionnydd Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

18 100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 21

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Pontypridd Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

380

50.8%

72.6%

40.9%

31.8%

34.8%

68.6%

28.4%

56.2%

62.0%

32.6%

152

20.3%

14.1%

23.2%

34.5%

8.3%

15.6%

12.6%

37.2%

3.7%

13.9%

7.6%

5.6%

19.3%

7.0%

18.4%

.0%

29.3%

.0%

31.5%

125

16.7%

.0%

11.3%

13.5%

25.9%

5.0%

24.4%

6.6%

29.7%

9.4%

1.4%

.0%

7.7%

1.2%

.0%

5.3%

13.2%

6.0%

5.8%

.0%

4.7%

.0%

.4%

.0%

5.1%

.0%

1.5%

7.6%

.0%

6.6%

.0%

5.3%

.0%

5.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention

Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

41.7%

54.6%

50.3%

14.4%

50.0%

22.2%

34.9%

18.6%

78.8%

70.0%

32.3%

23.9%

16.5%

8.9%

16.0%

12.9%

37.9%

41.7%

15.6%

21.4%

.0%

4.6%

.0%

5.2%

31.5%

4.9%

8.3%

5.6%

.0%

17.1%

4.0%

26.2%

72.2%

28.8%

29.3%

16.4%

31.4%

.0%

8.6%

.0%

8.9%

7.1%

.0%

4.1%

5.8%

.0%

4.5%

.0%

4.4%

4.0%

.0%

4.5%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Dwyfor Meirionnydd 2

Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

11.6%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 14

66.1% 64.0%

75.4%

70.8%

52.9%

8.0%

50.8%

59.3%

66.3%

68.0%

24.8%

16.6%

.0%

5.1%

19.9%

34.4%

44.1%

29.1%

6.7%

18.7%

9.2%

4.9%

4.2%

5.4%

.0%

4.3%

8.4%

18.7%

.0%

21.4%

4.9%

.0%

19.5%

5.0%

4.3%

15.0%

12.7%

.0%

16.4%

58.7%

13.1% 25.4%

.0%

7.2%

.0%

5.5%

6.4%

.0%

7.0%

.0%

6.2%

.0%

7.5%

.0%

5.2%

.0%

6.4%

4.6%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Pontypridd Labour Conservative

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys MĂ´n

62.4%

51.5%

78.1%

47.3%

55.1%

62.1%

70.1%

45.0%

48.6%

35.8%

22.4%

33.6%

.0%

21.5%

7.3%

30.6%

14.9%

45.2%

25.2%

33.3%

9.8%

9.3%

5.3%

4.8%

15.2%

.0%

4.9%

15.9%

.0%

5.5%

16.6%

26.5%

14.6%

7.3%

15.0%

.0%

5.1%

30.8%

.0%

3.9%

.0%

5.2%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? SEG

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0% 174

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 26

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

65 years or above

Refused

113

161

236

429

100.0%

(c…

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

842

111

100.0%

132

(c…

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

129

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote

1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

100.0%

A Labour minority government

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

670

100.0%

116

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? SEG Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

16.7% 296

A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition

28.5%

D/E Refused Male Female

13.9% 12.1% 17.5% 25.8% 52

106

27.0% 29.4% 29.2% 28.1%

6.7% 8 26.1%

17.4% 16.1% 162

134

33.1% 24.4%

8.4%

8.9%

9.5%

8.6%

6.8%

3.4%

7.2%

9.4%

7.4%

7.8%

8.9%

8.0%

4.8%

3.3%

7.9%

7.0%

129

9.9%

8.2%

.0%

12.4% 277

Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

A/B

Gender

26.6%

14.8% 16.6% 53

27.6% 23.4% 26.7% 26.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

60.5%

12.7% 12.2% 106

171

21.7% 31.0%

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

65 years or above

Refused

22.0%

25.0%

17.7%

17.1%

16.2%

15.5%

9.6%

120

9.3%

27.8%

29.7%

32.1%

28.0%

19.3%

.0%

5.8%

10.1%

12.3%

7.0%

7.9%

9.5%

20.0%

6.3%

8.6%

2.4%

4.7%

9.7%

9.2%

28.9%

6.5%

16.7%

14.6%

12.4%

10.8%

.0%

120

19.9%

28.5%

19.0%

24.0%

27.6%

28.0%

52.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Tenure Rented from Owner occupied private landlord A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

15.7%

20.0%

22.6%

16.3%

239

28.4%

18.7%

35.2%

24.9%

8.8%

9.8%

5.8%

2.8%

7.7%

11.4%

3.9%

5.3%

115

13.6%

16.0%

5.1%

2.3%

217

25.7%

24.1%

27.4%

48.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

16.3%

16.5%

8.8%

10.1%

16.4%

18.5%

166

38.0%

26.1%

28.3%

42.4%

32.4%

23.9%

5.4%

12.5%

17.6%

6.1%

.0%

9.3%

7.0%

3.5%

20.4%

4.1%

6.5%

8.0%

7.4%

17.4%

8.2%

16.0%

13.5%

12.2%

195

25.9%

24.1%

16.7%

21.2%

31.2%

28.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

14.8%

33.7%

.0%

10.4%

.0%

10.0%

6.5%

1.6%

6.5%

.0%

7.5%

12.9%

8.3%

5.2%

48.1% 15.4% 27.0% 10.8% 10.1% 12.6%

13.5% 10.1% 37.2%

1.5%

9.5%

19.8%

.0%

18.1%

8.4%

8.2%

225

33.6%

18.7%

11.6%

7.6%

8.9%

.0%

6.9%

11.3%

6.6%

21.2%

10.9%

8.2%

152

22.8%

39.6%

11.1% 11.5%

26.6% 79.9%

12.3%

19.2% 20.5% 32.6% 20.9% 29.8%

58.5%

17.3%

14.6% 24.6% 12.5% 7

38.3% 20.1% 22.2% 26.0% 26.2%

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Constituency Base: All respondents Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

1040

100.0%

174

16.7%

29.7%

9.5%

.0%

26.0%

18.2%

20.1%

17.2%

10.1%

12.4%

296

28.5%

27.7%

13.1%

36.5%

23.6%

37.5%

26.8%

10.7%

29.6%

14.5%

8.4%

9.7%

13.6%

.0%

4.0%

16.6%

6.9%

6.6%

25.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

3.4%

12.5%

10.2%

7.0%

17.8%

3.6%

15.6%

3.4%

27.6%

19.6%

17.8%

15.6%

44.7%

40.4%

27.5%

37.9%

31.5%

24.8%

32.8%

37.3%

20.9%

7.9%

6.9%

.0%

15.5%

8.2%

7.3%

4.6%

7.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Dwyfor Meirionnydd 22

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 26

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

4.0%

27.9%

23.2%

38.7%

40.5%

20.5%

9.3%

21.1%

23.6%

17.4%

14.7%

40.3%

34.7%

40.2%

23.7%

27.7%

17.6%

25.6%

25.7%

27.1%

33.5%

45.4%

9.9%

10.8%

7.3%

4.3%

4.0%

10.2%

17.9%

10.1%

12.8%

7.2%

3.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Constituency Pontypridd Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

21.8%

11.9%

60.8%

9.8%

7.5%

10.2%

25.8%

2.9%

19.1%

8.6%

35.4%

31.1%

27.2%

40.5%

35.1%

13.9%

22.0%

12.9%

23.7%

32.3%

7.1%

11.2%

.0%

12.8%

14.2%

7.8%

3.5%

3.1%

4.0%

6.3%

(c…

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Constituency Base: All respondents A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

7.4%

3.7%

4.6%

19.7%

8.3%

7.9%

8.6%

14.1%

6.1%

13.7%

129

12.4%

7.7%

24.0%

13.4%

12.1%

3.8%

9.1%

19.9%

6.2%

3.9%

277

26.6%

21.4%

35.1%

30.4%

25.8%

28.6%

18.7%

31.2%

41.4%

29.6%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?

A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

9.5%

2.4%

3.0%

4.1%

6.8%

4.2%

.0%

6.6%

4.5%

7.8%

15.6%

20.6%

3.8%

21.2%

24.2%

12.0%

30.3%

20.6%

8.3%

12.2%

32.9%

41.0%

31.4%

27.3%

23.7%

26.8%

14.4%

37.5%

22.2%

15.5%

(c…

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Dwyfor Meirionnydd A Labour- Conservative coalition

20.1%

6.4%

.0%

11.8%

.0%

8.3%

6.1%

4.3%

13.8%

7.2%

.0%

3.4%

12.8%

6.6%

8.6%

10.2%

14.2%

16.5%

7.8%

.0%

7.2%

26.7%

7.4%

41.6%

24.7%

20.6%

24.5%

28.0%

21.9%

A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re

25.7%

16.9% 16.5%

(c…

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Constituency Pontypridd A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

6.7%

10.8%

.0%

12.8%

2.4%

25.7%

.0%

6.2%

6.9%

12.4%

13.3%

10.2%

4.7%

9.8%

13.7%

13.0%

23.2%

28.5%

7.6%

8.8%

15.7%

24.8%

7.3%

14.3%

27.0%

29.4%

25.5%

46.3%

38.8%

31.5%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? SEG

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

584

198

130

164

265

319

56.2%

40.4%

54.9%

63.1%

65.1%

48.8%

54.2%

57.9%

321

123

182

139

30.9%

48.5%

34.1%

23.9%

19.6%

23.1%

37.3%

25.2%

134

12.9%

11.1%

11.0%

12.9%

15.3%

28.1%

8.5%

16.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

133

236

453

51.1%

75.5%

58.3%

53.4%

56.3%

55.2%

43.3%

53.8%

74.8%

72.4%

35.9%

133

284

38.4%

21.6%

32.2%

31.2%

29.8%

31.1%

42.1%

33.7%

12.6%

15.7%

37.3%

105

10.5%

2.9%

9.5%

15.4%

13.9%

13.7%

14.6%

12.5%

12.7%

11.9%

26.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

367

67.9%

62.3%

49.4%

60.4%

67.9%

52.9%

237

20.7%

27.7%

32.6%

25.6%

21.2%

34.1%

11.4%

10.0%

17.9%

13.9%

10.9%

13.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

670

100.0%

386

53.2%

40.0%

49.2%

46.9%

66.1%

56.3%

55.4%

46.1%

59.4%

57.6%

45.8%

200

31.4%

53.6%

19.9%

36.2%

22.7%

18.3%

39.3%

43.7%

28.1%

29.8%

28.4%

15.4%

6.4%

30.9%

16.9%

11.2%

25.4%

5.3%

10.2%

12.5%

12.6%

25.8%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Base: All respondents 1040

Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy 22

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Base: All respondents

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire 27

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Vale of Glamorgan 29

Wrexham Ynys Môn 26

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

100.0%

584

56.2%

41.1%

59.9%

62.3%

61.7%

46.6%

59.8%

41.1%

55.0%

46.7%

45.4%

321

30.9%

39.6%

31.3%

19.3%

26.7%

41.5%

32.6%

52.0%

31.0%

40.1%

35.7%

134

12.9%

19.4%

8.8%

18.4%

11.6%

11.9%

7.6%

6.9%

14.0%

13.2%

18.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

44.8%

51.4%

62.8%

64.7%

52.8%

63.4%

36.9%

35.2%

21.7%

24.6%

18.3%

13.4%

15.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

55.2%

62.3%

59.9%

60.8%

65.0%

27.6%

27.8%

34.4%

24.9%

36.3%

34.5%

28.0%

10.7%

19.6%

8.9%

10.4%

12.9%

3.7%

4.7%

6.9%

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

Islwyn Llanelli Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% Yes No Don't know

100.0%

50.6%

63.5%

76.0%

65.8%

39.8%

55.3%

56.0%

59.2%

71.4%

44.1%

56.6%

61.5%

33.5%

21.9%

20.0%

24.3%

43.0%

29.5%

19.5%

34.2%

22.0%

38.1%

29.1%

25.4%

15.8%

14.6%

4.0%

9.9%

17.2%

15.2%

24.5%

6.6%

17.9%

14.4%

13.1%

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Vale of Glamorgan

Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

64.0%

60.1%

47.4%

56.0%

44.8%

65.2%

50.1%

21.3%

28.7%

42.2%

20.8%

44.9%

31.3%

21.0%

14.7%

11.1%

10.5%

23.2%

10.4%

3.5%

28.9%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

670

100.0%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E Refused Male Female

580

193

135

165

55.8% 377

No Don't know

Gender

36.2%

38.3% 53.5% 65.4% 65.7% 106

150

46.2%

55.4% 41.5% 26.3% 22.0%

38.6%

252

328

51.6% 59.5% 209

167

42.8% 30.4%

8.0%

6.3%

5.0%

8.3%

12.3%

15.2%

5.6%

10.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

121

222

438

91.1%

65.8%

67.8%

56.4%

51.3%

51.8%

47.9%

52.0%

79.3%

74.7%

51.5%

172

342

8.9%

23.9%

29.4%

34.3%

38.2%

40.1%

52.1%

40.7%

10.1%

13.1%

40.7%

.0%

10.3%

2.8%

9.3%

10.5%

8.1%

.0%

7.3%

10.6%

12.2%

7.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

106

353

63.4%

70.5%

53.2%

66.2%

71.5%

50.9%

294

25.5%

23.2%

20.2%

26.5%

12.9%

42.3%

11.1%

6.2%

26.5%

7.3%

15.6%

6.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote 36

Yes

61.3% 17

No Don't know

29.7%

54.7% 21.7% 61.1% 61.9% 70.5% 68.9% 49.8% 55.9% 6

45.3% 57.5% 30.7% 22.0% 24.1% 25.5% 47.4% 36.4%

367

54.8%

44.5%

251

37.5%

27.2%

9.0%

.0%

20.8%

8.2%

16.1%

5.5%

5.6%

2.8%

7.7%

28.4%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1040

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

580

55.8%

53.0%

55.1%

54.8%

73.4%

54.4%

63.7%

28.6%

54.3%

39.7%

63.8%

377

36.2%

38.4%

35.4%

34.9%

22.0%

37.7%

36.3%

61.5%

29.2%

43.0%

33.3%

8.0%

8.6%

9.6%

10.2%

4.6%

7.9%

.0%

9.9%

16.5%

17.3%

2.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

40.5%

61.9%

66.1%

66.5%

53.6%

66.0%

63.9%

47.7%

34.8%

33.9%

33.5%

34.8%

11.8%

3.3%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

65.5%

52.2%

73.1%

64.5%

30.9%

22.8%

29.4%

47.8%

18.1%

35.5%

11.6%

3.1%

13.3%

5.1%

.0%

8.8%

.0%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

54.3%

77.3%

72.3%

41.5%

39.3%

52.6%

52.5%

43.1%

53.8%

55.9%

59.9%

53.8%

41.4%

15.8%

27.7%

55.2%

52.3%

35.5%

27.0%

44.3%

31.1%

34.2%

32.8%

34.0%

4.3%

6.9%

.0%

3.3%

8.4%

11.9%

20.5%

12.6%

15.1%

9.9%

7.3%

12.1%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

65.9%

49.0%

43.3%

56.2%

38.7%

64.8%

52.5%

23.9%

42.0%

56.7%

21.1%

54.3%

31.2%

38.2%

10.2%

9.0%

.0%

22.7%

7.0%

4.0%

9.3%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

670

100.0%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

418

156

40.2% 432

41.6% 189

Don't know

18.2%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 100

42.1% 43.2% 34.2% 39.8% 81

151

104

42.6% 41.7% 43.2% 41.1% 29

38.4%

25.9%

15.3% 15.1% 22.6% 19.1%

35.7%

198

221

40.4% 40.1% 222

211

45.4% 38.2% 70

119

14.2% 21.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

143

343

68.8%

59.7%

55.8%

40.1%

37.3%

33.5%

42.9%

40.8%

49.4%

30.9%

43.7%

102

211

352

21.6%

24.7%

27.4%

40.0%

43.0%

49.3%

23.9%

41.8%

39.6%

44.9%

29.3%

147

9.7%

15.6%

16.8%

19.9%

19.6%

17.2%

33.3%

17.4%

11.0%

24.2%

26.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

281

33.6%

41.3%

26.7%

44.5%

41.2%

40.5%

302

47.0%

39.3%

32.7%

33.3%

33.9%

43.6%

111

19.4%

40.6%

22.2%

24.9%

15.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote 24

Yes

41.3% 24

42.0% 10

Don't know

16.7%

66.7% 38.0% 3

7.3%

42.5% 40.8% 54.6% 46.9% 35.7% 17

19.8% 41.9% 54.8% 26.9% 30.8% 24.5% 40.4% 41.5% 2

13.5% 20.1% 37.9% 30.5% 28.5% 20.9% 12.7% 22.9%

261

38.9%

27.3%

298

44.5%

47.1%

111

16.6%

25.5%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1040

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

418

40.2%

20.7%

19.5%

61.1%

43.6%

15.5%

59.6%

27.3%

53.5%

32.8%

51.2%

432

41.6%

52.3%

44.5%

18.2%

37.3%

67.9%

29.3%

54.7%

20.3%

39.9%

36.0%

189

18.2%

26.9%

36.1%

20.7%

19.1%

16.5%

11.1%

18.0%

26.2%

27.3%

12.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

37.2%

47.5%

60.5%

44.7%

58.9%

43.2%

50.3%

40.6%

32.7%

22.7%

28.2%

19.3%

22.2%

19.8%

16.8%

27.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

41.7%

52.0%

51.4%

14.9%

50.3%

29.0%

53.8%

34.3%

31.8%

59.5%

21.8%

6.5%

20.8%

4.5%

13.7%

16.7%

25.6%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

36.4%

34.1%

37.6%

41.1%

67.1%

24.6%

25.7%

35.0%

45.4%

35.7%

35.2%

19.8%

51.8%

40.2%

49.4%

51.7%

24.7%

61.6%

52.7%

51.8%

35.5%

42.8%

46.5%

59.8%

11.8%

25.7%

13.0%

7.2%

8.2%

13.8%

21.7%

13.3%

19.1%

21.5%

18.4%

20.4%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

57.9%

35.4%

36.0%

37.5%

35.7%

44.8%

26.8%

25.3%

38.6%

57.0%

37.9%

55.1%

39.9%

50.4%

16.7%

26.0%

7.0%

24.6%

9.2%

15.3%

22.8%

Q7. Does this make you feel? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

670

100.0%

Q7. Does this make you feel? SEG

Happy

Base: All respondents

A/B

220

21.1% 211

Frustrated

20.3% 609

Neither

58.6%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 52

17.4% 20.0% 27.3% 20.8% 45

23.8% 24.2% 20.1% 13.4% 112

201

109

19.3%

9.6%

166

58.8% 55.8% 52.7% 65.8%

71.0%

119

101

24.3% 18.3% 105

106

21.4% 19.3% 265

344

54.3% 62.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Happy Frustrated Neither

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

117

177

9.4%

12.5%

17.7%

13.8%

21.1%

27.2%

9.6%

21.0%

11.2%

30.1%

10.7%

183

.0%

15.7%

15.5%

21.3%

24.7%

21.3%

4.9%

21.8%

11.1%

16.4%

10.3%

105

128

221

482

90.6%

71.8%

66.8%

64.9%

54.3%

51.5%

85.5%

57.2%

77.7%

53.5%

79.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Happy Frustrated Neither

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

138

23.1%

22.9%

3.9%

25.8%

26.5%

19.9%

143

19.9%

20.0%

53.8%

13.4%

25.8%

20.6%

413

57.0%

57.1%

42.3%

60.8%

47.7%

59.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote Happy Frustrated

3.1%

.0%

7.3%

9.5%

18.1% 46

Neither

78.8%

20.0% 20.1% 11

6.5% 11

11.7% 13.7% 21.4% 12.6% 8

17.0% 25.1% 18.8% 17.3% 22.0% 46

80.0% 79.9% 86.2% 73.5% 63.3% 67.5% 61.3% 65.5%

176

26.2%

12.1%

141

21.1%

26.1%

353

52.7%

61.8%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1040

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Happy Frustrated Neither

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

220

21.1%

29.7%

13.2%

14.0%

30.3%

16.5%

20.2%

6.8%

18.8%

16.8%

18.9%

211

20.3%

29.9%

12.8%

16.9%

4.0%

23.5%

11.3%

30.8%

21.8%

19.7%

23.5%

609

58.6%

40.4%

74.1%

69.1%

65.8%

60.0%

68.5%

62.4%

59.4%

63.5%

57.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel?

Happy Frustrated Neither

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

24.4%

32.1%

20.2%

10.5%

23.2%

19.1%

16.0%

26.9%

17.0%

10.2%

23.7%

12.2%

48.7%

50.9%

69.6%

65.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

12.4%

20.9%

8.7%

26.0%

3.4%

13.9%

12.1%

11.1%

17.5%

27.8%

64.6%

77.5%

70.1%

75.5%

68.0%

73.9%

46.2%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Happy Frustrated Neither

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

34.1%

33.2%

21.8%

17.3%

32.2%

26.9%

15.3%

35.4%

23.4%

20.7%

13.7%

35.7%

7.3%

17.2%

16.5%

20.8%

25.0%

26.7%

33.3%

13.8%

24.8%

23.4%

29.0%

24.6%

58.6%

49.6%

61.7%

61.9%

42.8%

46.4%

51.4%

50.8%

51.9%

55.9%

57.3%

39.7%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Happy Frustrated Neither

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

26.2%

25.0%

17.4%

21.3%

20.0%

15.4%

8.2%

10.2%

15.6%

39.2%

25.1%

34.8%

23.6%

27.1%

63.6%

59.5%

43.4%

53.6%

45.2%

61.0%

64.7%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

670

100.0%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

261

25.1% 626

153

Don't know

215

128

22.2%

156

58.0% 59.6% 61.9% 62.0% 24

14.7%

D/E Refused Male Female

29.5% 26.3% 23.0% 22.1% 111

60.2%

Gender

55.1%

12.5% 14.1% 15.1% 15.9%

118

143

24.2% 25.9% 326

300

66.7% 54.4%

108

22.7%

9.1%

19.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

224

37.8%

43.2%

29.9%

34.0%

21.5%

19.5%

23.4%

26.6%

30.8%

14.8%

13.4%

148

296

499

42.0%

38.1%

50.1%

49.9%

62.6%

69.0%

66.9%

59.3%

57.1%

66.8%

65.0%

118

20.2%

18.7%

19.9%

16.1%

15.9%

11.5%

9.7%

14.1%

12.1%

18.4%

21.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

182

21.8%

29.6%

26.0%

19.4%

33.1%

26.2%

104

410

64.6%

51.7%

61.9%

64.5%

58.0%

59.0%

102

13.6%

18.7%

12.1%

16.0%

8.8%

14.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote Yes No

21.9%

19.2%

9.6%

7.3%

47.8% 18

Don't know

31.8% 21.8% 46.2% 32.0% 22.5% 34

67.3% 47.4% 63.5% 54.7% 33.3% 27.5% 62.6% 62.8% 2

30.3%

13.5% 43.0% 29.3% 13.6% 44.9% 26.3%

158

23.6%

31.7%

431

64.4%

54.1%

5.4%

14.7%

12.1%

14.1%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1040

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

261

25.1%

27.4%

33.0%

39.1%

17.3%

12.3%

16.9%

23.7%

35.8%

16.0%

35.9%

626

60.2%

67.0%

49.3%

38.2%

68.8%

87.7%

72.0%

53.2%

51.4%

67.2%

42.5%

153

14.7%

5.7%

17.6%

22.6%

14.0%

.0%

11.1%

23.1%

12.8%

16.8%

21.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

41.8%

29.4%

18.3%

14.1%

19.4%

26.3%

45.7%

50.3%

55.3%

49.8%

58.9%

58.1%

7.9%

15.3%

31.9%

27.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

19.5%

12.6%

47.5%

20.1%

64.8%

24.3%

71.6%

81.2%

36.5%

72.8%

22.5%

8.9%

29.9%

8.9%

6.2%

16.1%

7.1%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

15.2%

18.0%

20.5%

27.7%

34.1%

27.1%

22.9%

24.6%

30.1%

15.2%

31.4%

.0%

81.0%

62.1%

67.1%

57.6%

48.7%

49.3%

60.5%

61.2%

62.5%

63.8%

57.3%

100.0%

3.9%

19.9%

12.4%

14.7%

17.1%

23.6%

16.7%

14.2%

7.4%

21.0%

11.3%

.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

49.8%

15.0%

32.2%

15.3%

32.5%

15.6%

13.2%

37.7%

70.6%

64.5%

71.3%

57.4%

55.6%

81.9%

12.4%

14.4%

3.3%

13.4%

10.2%

28.8%

5.0%

Q9. Does this make you feel? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1040

191

361

206

252

100.0%

Refused Male Female 30

489

551

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

113

161

236

429

842

111

100.0%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

160

694

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? 1 - Not going to vote 58

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 13

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

670

100.0%

Q9. Does this make you feel? SEG

Happy

Base: All respondents

A/B

287

27.6% 186

Frustrated

17.9% 566

Neither

54.5%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 64

29.4% 25.9% 33.9% 25.3% 33

17.5% 20.7% 16.9% 14.8% 101

193

101

13.1%

20.1%

151

53.0% 53.5% 49.2% 59.8%

66.8%

164

123

33.5% 22.4% 85

102

17.3% 18.4% 240

326

49.2% 59.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Happy Frustrated Neither

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

130

226

19.5%

12.7%

17.2%

25.6%

34.4%

30.4%

14.0%

26.8%

25.9%

39.0%

13.8%

154

.0%

6.0%

18.8%

13.9%

17.5%

21.9%

19.6%

18.3%

17.6%

16.9%

13.7%

113

204

462

80.5%

81.3%

64.0%

60.4%

48.1%

47.7%

66.4%

54.9%

56.5%

44.1%

72.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh Happy Frustrated Neither

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

174

32.7%

33.8%

37.1%

27.9%

49.0%

25.1%

136

18.4%

16.7%

12.1%

13.3%

9.0%

19.7%

383

48.8%

49.4%

50.8%

58.8%

42.0%

55.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote Happy Frustrated Neither

13.2%

6.6%

.0%

16.8%

.0%

70.0%

13.4% 12.0% 17.2% 31.0% 18.3% 10

20.1% 15.9% 15.6% 16.1% 10.4% 16.4% 13.4% 7

93.4% 79.9% 84.1% 70.9% 71.9% 72.4% 52.6% 68.3%

222

33.2%

12.1%

128

19.1%

37.7%

319

47.7%

50.2%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1040

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Happy Frustrated Neither

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

287

27.6%

37.8%

30.9%

20.9%

35.7%

48.9%

14.7%

22.1%

22.3%

30.1%

34.6%

186

17.9%

22.0%

8.6%

6.9%

16.4%

20.0%

19.2%

27.4%

19.7%

2.9%

14.9%

566

54.5%

40.2%

60.5%

72.2%

47.9%

31.1%

66.1%

50.6%

58.0%

67.0%

50.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel?

Happy Frustrated Neither

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

16.6%

36.3%

15.5%

17.4%

31.1%

33.0%

29.1%

23.2%

22.4%

9.7%

6.6%

8.5%

60.2%

41.3%

74.8%

76.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

33.3%

41.9%

13.8%

40.3%

11.2%

3.3%

24.0%

27.4%

12.3%

17.5%

60.4%

55.8%

67.6%

42.7%

30.7%

73.9%

42.3%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Happy Frustrated Neither

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

20.4%

37.2%

22.5%

24.2%

26.2%

22.7%

20.1%

30.8%

40.6%

24.2%

33.9%

30.9%

23.6%

23.7%

15.9%

20.9%

17.2%

14.7%

21.0%

13.8%

13.6%

10.5%

25.5%

21.0%

56.0%

39.1%

61.6%

55.0%

56.6%

62.6%

58.9%

55.4%

45.8%

65.3%

40.6%

48.1%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Happy Frustrated Neither

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

27.1%

22.7%

23.5%

22.2%

13.1%

39.6%

28.2%

12.5%

18.8%

25.9%

37.6%

35.3%

23.3%

17.6%

60.4%

58.5%

50.6%

40.2%

51.6%

37.2%

54.2%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

UNWEIGHTED TABULATIONS

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? SEG

Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

5.1%

3.5%

5.4%

5.5%

5.3%

6.5%

5.5%

4.7%

1.0%

.5%

2.3%

.4%

.0%

1.6%

.4%

.9%

2.0%

1.3%

.0%

.6%

1.1%

.9%

1.0%

.5%

1.4%

.4%

3.2%

1.0%

.7%

5.9%

5.0%

5.9%

2.8%

9.2%

9.7%

3.9%

7.7%

3.1%

4.5%

1.3%

5.1%

3.1%

3.2%

2.8%

3.4%

3.1%

4.5%

3.5%

2.8%

2.2%

.0%

2.4%

3.8%

9.0%

8.5%

9.4%

6.0%

11.8%

6.5%

10.0%

8.1%

3.9%

5.0%

2.9%

2.3%

5.7%

6.5%

4.3%

3.6%

690

129

255

151

135

327

363

65.8%

64.5%

68.4%

69.6%

59.2%

64.5%

66.5%

65.2%

1.4%

.5%

.8%

2.3%

2.6%

.0%

1.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Age 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

65 years or above

Refused

104

160

254

468

100.0%

10.0%

15.6%

6.7%

7.5%

5.1%

3.2%

.0%

20.0%

3.1%

.0%

1.3%

.8%

.6%

.0%

3.1%

1.0%

1.3%

2.0%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

1.0%

1.3%

1.6%

.0%

15.6%

13.5%

8.1%

4.3%

4.1%

.0%

6.3%

5.8%

5.0%

3.1%

1.9%

.0%

10.0%

3.1%

5.8%

6.3%

2.4%

1.9%

.0%

30.0%

6.3%

8.7%

6.9%

9.1%

9.4%

9.5%

.0%

3.8%

4.4%

5.1%

3.2%

9.5%

168

341

10.0%

46.9%

52.9%

58.1%

66.1%

72.9%

81.0%

.0%

1.0%

.0%

.4%

2.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

883

100.0%

4.8%

8.8%

6.1%

1.0%

.0%

3.0%

1.0%

.0%

.9%

2.9%

.0%

5.4%

8.8%

8.1%

9.1%

2.9%

11.8%

2.0%

3.0%

3.4%

5.9%

1.0%

.0%

9.2%

8.8%

6.1%

12.1%

3.6%

8.8%

4.0%

6.1%

587

66.5%

44.1%

69.7%

57.6%

1.2%

.0%

3.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

3.8%

3.3%

5.0%

4.6%

4.8%

5.4%

.0%

3.3%

.0%

.7%

2.4%

1.0%

1.9%

.0%

1.0%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

1.0%

6.7%

3.3%

.0%

7.2%

7.1%

5.7%

3.8%

3.3%

5.0%

2.6%

2.4%

3.1%

1.9%

3.3%

.0%

2.6%

.0%

3.7%

6.7%

10.0%

15.0%

2.6%

2.4%

10.9%

2.9%

.0%

5.9%

2.4%

4.0%

111

438

69.5%

73.3%

70.0%

72.5%

76.2%

62.7%

1.9%

.0%

1.3%

2.4%

1.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

690

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

.0%

690

.0%

100.0%

.0%

100.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly

1049

100.0%

5.1%

.0%

4.8%

11.1%

.0%

8.7%

3.4%

6.9%

1.0%

.0%

5.3%

.0%

6.9%

.9%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

.9%

4.5%

.0%

5.9%

9.1%

9.5%

.0%

10.5%

8.3%

4.3%

.0%

6.9%

3.1%

9.1%

.0%

4.3%

3.4%

3.1%

.0%

14.3%

7.4%

5.3%

.0%

6.9%

.0%

9.0%

18.2%

4.8%

11.1%

10.5%

8.3%

8.7%

10.3%

17.2%

3.9%

4.5%

.0%

15.8%

4.2%

4.3%

6.9%

3.4%

690

65.8%

54.5%

61.9%

66.7%

52.6%

79.2%

69.6%

69.0%

55.2%

1.4%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?

Cardiff Central Cardiff North Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

Cardiff South and Penarth

Constituency Carmarthen Cardiff West East and Dinefwr

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Pembrokeshire

100.0%

3.6%

3.3%

10.8%

3.6%

13.8%

.0%

4.0%

8.0%

.0%

3.3%

2.7%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.6%

10.0%

5.4%

7.1%

3.4%

7.4%

4.0%

3.6%

3.3%

2.7%

3.6%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

7.1%

.0%

7.1%

3.4%

11.1%

12.0%

4.0%

10.7%

13.3%

8.1%

3.6%

3.4%

3.7%

8.0%

24.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.6%

3.4%

7.4%

4.0%

.0%

67.9%

66.7%

70.3%

71.4%

72.4%

55.6%

68.0%

56.0%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower Islwyn Llanelli

100.0%

7.4%

4.3%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

8.3%

.0%

6.9%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.4%

8.7%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

4.3%

3.7%

.0%

4.2%

6.9%

8.0%

6.9%

4.3%

11.1%

13.0%

12.0%

.0%

10.3%

.0%

8.7%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

7.4%

13.0%

12.0%

15.0%

17.9%

12.5%

10.3%

4.0%

3.4%

4.3%

.0%

4.3%

.0%

10.0%

10.7%

8.3%

6.9%

8.0%

.0%

4.3%

63.0%

65.2%

68.0%

65.0%

60.7%

66.7%

62.1%

80.0%

69.0%

65.2%

7.4%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

3.4%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Monmouth and Rhymney re

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

21.4%

4.2%

3.6%

7.7%

.0%

17.9%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

4.2%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

7.1%

4.2%

.0%

3.8%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

3.6%

10.7%

12.5%

7.1%

15.4%

7.1%

8.0%

4.2%

.0%

9.7%

3.6%

.0%

10.7%

.0%

3.7%

3.2%

.0%

3.6%

3.8%

.0%

8.3%

7.4%

3.2%

.0%

10.7%

8.3%

3.6%

.0%

3.6%

4.0%

8.3%

11.1%

6.5%

7.1%

3.6%

8.3%

.0%

7.1%

.0%

8.3%

3.7%

3.2%

3.6%

39.3%

54.2%

78.6%

65.4%

67.9%

80.0%

66.7%

74.1%

64.5%

60.7%

3.6%

4.2%

.0%

3.8%

3.6%

.0%

4.2%

.0%

3.2%

3.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'? Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents 1 - Not going to vote 2 3 4 5 Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going 6 to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 7 8 9 10 - Certain to vote Don't know

Constituency Vale of Wrexham Ynys M么n Glamorgan

100.0%

11.5%

6.5%

4.0%

4.5%

.0%

11.5%

3.2%

4.0%

13.6%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

8.0%

4.5%

3.8%

9.7%

12.0%

9.1%

.0%

3.2%

4.0%

4.5%

69.2%

74.2%

64.0%

63.6%

3.8%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? SEG

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Other

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote

A/B

D/E

953

184

341

192

208

100.0%

Refused Male Female 28

442

511

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

312

156

32.7%

26.6%

26.4%

40.6%

41.8%

28.6%

35.3%

30.5%

114

12.0%

18.5%

14.1%

8.9%

5.8%

10.7%

12.4%

11.5%

4.5%

4.9%

4.1%

4.2%

5.3%

3.6%

4.8%

4.3%

9.8%

6.0%

12.6%

9.9%

9.1%

3.6%

11.3%

8.4%

.9%

2.2%

.9%

.5%

.0%

1.1%

.8%

.7%

1.1%

.6%

.5%

3.6%

1.1%

.4%

.3%

.0%

1.0%

.5%

.0%

.7%

.0%

313

120

117

196

32.8%

36.4%

35.2%

29.2%

29.3%

32.1%

26.5%

38.4%

.1%

.0%

.5%

.0%

.2%

.1%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.2%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

65 years or above

Refused

142

229

437

100.0%

156

.0%

28.0%

27.7%

31.7%

31.9%

35.7%

23.8%

40.0%

4.0%

4.3%

10.6%

14.0%

13.0%

14.3%

20.0%

4.0%

4.3%

5.6%

3.5%

4.8%

.0%

20.0%

11.7%

12.0%

11.8%

7.1%

4.8%

.0%

8.0%

4.3%

.7%

.9%

.0%

1.1%

.7%

.4%

.9%

.0%

1.4%

.4%

.0%

144

20.0%

28.0%

39.4%

31.7%

31.0%

33.0%

38.1%

.0%

.2%

.0%

.2%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

804

100.0%

241

30.0%

58.9%

31.0%

102

12.7%

13.3%

3.3%

17.2%

4.5%

10.0%

3.3%

3.4%

10.0%

6.7%

11.1%

3.4%

1.1%

.0%

.9%

.0%

.1%

.0%

2.2%

.0%

279

34.7%

30.0%

18.9%

27.6%

.1%

.0%

.1%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

143

630

100.0%

213

42.7%

35.7%

38.9%

21.0%

28.9%

33.8%

12.5%

17.9%

11.1%

4.9%

10.5%

13.3%

3.1%

.0%

11.1%

4.2%

5.3%

4.8%

5.2%

.0%

5.6%

34.3%

10.5%

5.4%

.0%

3.6%

5.6%

1.4%

5.3%

.5%

.0%

5.6%

.0%

2.6%

.8%

.0%

.5%

221

33.3%

28.6%

16.7%

26.6%

28.9%

35.1%

.0%

.7%

.0%

.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Plaid or Labour Plaid or lib dem

690

100.0%

245

24.2%

39.4%

24.2%

23.4%

22.0%

35.5%

12.9%

6.1%

21.2%

19.1%

9.8%

10.9%

3.2%

6.1%

.0%

6.4%

9.8%

4.2%

9.7%

6.1%

9.1%

7.4%

12.2%

10.1%

.0%

3.0%

1.1%

.0%

1.0%

.0%

3.0%

2.1%

.0%

.6%

1.6%

.0%

.3%

213

45.2%

39.4%

33.3%

33.0%

41.5%

30.9%

.0%

1.1%

.0%

.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? SEG

Plaid or lib dem Other

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote

A/B

D/E Refused Male Female

.1%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.2%

5.8%

4.3%

5.3%

5.2%

6.7%

17.9%

6.3%

5.3%

.1%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.2%

.0%

(c…

Refused Socialist Labour Party

65 years or above

Refused

.0%

.2%

.0%

8.0%

6.4%

5.6%

6.1%

4.8%

19.0%

.0%

1.1%

.0%

(c…

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Tenure Owner occupied Plaid or lib dem Other

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Rented from private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

.1%

.0%

5.7%

6.7%

2.2%

17.2%

.0%

3.3%

.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Refused Socialist Labour Party

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

.0%

.7%

.0%

3.1%

14.3%

5.6%

5.3%

5.9%

.0%

2.6%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Refused Socialist Labour Party

.0%

.1%

3.2%

3.0%

6.1%

5.3%

4.9%

6.2%

.0%

1.1%

.0%

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

953

100.0%

312

32.7%

57.1%

26.3%

21.7%

16.7%

50.0%

19.0%

25.0%

36.0%

22.2%

28.6%

114

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

34.4%

33.3%

8.0%

23.1%

12.5%

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

22.7%

8.7%

36.4%

58.3%

5.6%

50.0%

(c…

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 22

Base: Those likely to vote Labour Conservative

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

31.8%

46.4%

48.0%

37.5%

5.0%

31.6%

40.0%

42.3%

40.9%

40.7%

34.8%

43.5%

(c…

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

37.0%

39.3%

33.3%

59.1%

27.6%

39.1%

19.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

12.0%

9.5%

5.3%

17.4%

5.6%

.0%

9.5%

21.4%

.0%

3.7%

21.4%

4.5%

4.8%

10.5%

4.3%

5.6%

.0%

14.3%

.0%

18.5%

.0%

9.8%

.0%

5.3%

4.3%

22.2%

4.2%

9.5%

.0%

12.0%

3.7%

10.7%

.9%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

.7%

.0%

5.3%

4.3%

5.6%

4.2%

.0%

4.0%

.0%

.3%

.0%

4.2%

.0%

313

32.8%

14.3%

42.1%

34.8%

33.3%

42.9%

35.7%

44.0%

40.7%

32.1%

.1%

.0%

5.6%

.0%

.1%

.0%

.1%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

5.8%

9.5%

5.3%

13.0%

5.6%

4.2%

.0%

17.9%

4.0%

7.4%

7.1%

.1%

4.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party? Constituency

Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know Labour or Conservative Plaid or Labour Other Plaid or lib dem Refused Socialist Labour Party

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

15.6%

14.8%

8.0%

3.8%

8.3%

22.7%

30.4%

4.5%

3.1%

.0%

3.8%

25.0%

4.5%

3.1%

14.8%

40.0%

19.2%

6.3%

3.7%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

8.3%

16.7%

7.7%

4.3%

4.5%

.0%

5.6%

.0%

20.8%

13.6%

26.1%

.0%

8.3%

44.4%

11.5%

.0%

4.2%

4.5%

.0%

25.0%

25.9%

36.0%

50.0%

25.0%

27.3%

30.4%

50.0%

20.8%

27.8%

26.9%

.0%

3.1%

.0%

9.4%

7.4%

8.0%

.0%

4.2%

4.5%

.0%

4.5%

4.2%

.0%

3.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

.0%

3.6%

8.0%

29.2%

15.0%

21.1%

5.0%

3.8%

9.1%

14.8%

26.1%

.0%

4.5%

.0%

4.0%

8.3%

5.0%

.0%

15.0%

3.8%

.0%

7.4%

4.3%

18.2%

7.1%

4.0%

4.2%

5.0%

5.3%

.0%

13.6%

3.7%

4.3%

13.0%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

3.8%

4.5%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

5.3%

.0%

40.9%

25.0%

28.0%

20.8%

60.0%

31.6%

25.0%

34.6%

31.8%

29.6%

30.4%

39.1%

.0%

4.5%

17.9%

8.0%

.0%

5.3%

10.0%

11.5%

.0%

3.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

7.4%

7.1%

14.3%

13.6%

27.6%

17.4%

19.0%

3.7%

7.1%

.0%

3.4%

4.3%

.0%

11.1%

7.1%

4.8%

9.1%

.0%

19.0%

.0%

4.3%

.0%

33.3%

32.1%

38.1%

18.2%

31.0%

34.8%

38.1%

.0%

7.4%

7.1%

9.5%

.0%

10.3%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support? SEG

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a

A/B

D/E

313

120

100.0%

Refused Male Female 9

117

196

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

24.6%

23.9%

23.3%

26.8%

26.2%

22.2%

26.5%

23.5%

14.1%

16.4%

18.3%

10.7%

6.6%

11.1%

12.0%

15.3%

4.2%

1.5%

6.7%

5.4%

1.6%

.0%

4.3%

4.1%

10.2%

10.4%

9.2%

10.7%

11.5%

11.1%

8.5%

11.2%

1.0%

1.5%

.0%

1.8%

1.6%

.0%

2.6%

.0%

134

42.8%

40.3%

40.8%

41.1%

49.2%

55.6%

41.9%

43.4%

.3%

.0%

1.8%

.0%

.9%

.0%

.3%

.0%

1.8%

.0%

.5%

.3%

1.5%

.0%

.5%

2.2%

4.5%

1.7%

.0%

3.3%

.0%

3.4%

1.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

65 years or above

Refused

144

100.0%

.0%

42.9%

24.3%

35.6%

22.5%

22.9%

.0%

100.0%

28.6%

10.8%

6.7%

15.5%

14.6%

25.0%

.0%

14.3%

5.4%

4.4%

4.2%

3.5%

.0%

10.8%

11.1%

9.9%

10.4%

12.5%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

14.3%

48.6%

37.8%

40.8%

44.4%

62.5%

.0%

.7%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

1.4%

.0%

4.4%

2.8%

2.1%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

279

100.0%

25.4%

11.1%

23.5%

12.5%

14.7%

11.1%

.0%

25.0%

4.3%

11.1%

.0%

9.3%

11.1%

23.5%

12.5%

1.1%

.0%

116

41.6%

55.6%

52.9%

50.0%

.4%

.0%

.4%

.0%

.4%

.0%

2.5%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

221

100.0%

40.6%

25.0%

33.3%

18.4%

27.3%

23.1%

12.5%

.0%

10.5%

9.1%

15.4%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

5.3%

.0%

4.5%

6.3%

12.5%

33.3%

21.1%

27.3%

7.7%

.0%

1.4%

37.5%

33.3%

44.7%

36.4%

43.9%

.0%

.5%

3.1%

.0%

.5%

.0%

3.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

213

100.0%

25.0%

30.8%

9.1%

9.7%

35.3%

26.3%

3.6%

.0%

18.2%

22.6%

17.6%

14.6%

.0%

9.1%

6.5%

5.9%

4.2%

3.6%

7.7%

.0%

12.9%

11.8%

11.3%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

.9%

64.3%

61.5%

63.6%

38.7%

29.4%

39.4%

.0%

.5%

.0%

.5%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

3.6%

.0%

3.2%

.0%

2.3%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

313

100.0%

24.6%

33.3%

25.0%

.0%

33.3%

.0%

11.1%

20.0%

27.3%

9.1%

14.1%

33.3%

25.0%

12.5%

.0%

37.5%

.0%

9.1%

4.2%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

22.2%

.0%

18.2%

10.2%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

11.1%

10.0%

36.4%

9.1%

1.0%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

134

42.8%

33.3%

25.0%

62.5%

66.7%

62.5%

55.6%

70.0%

27.3%

45.5%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

.3%

.0%

2.2%

.0%

9.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know None None of them Other Socialist Labour Undecided

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

11.1%

12.5%

28.6%

11.1%

23.1%

33.3%

16.7%

28.6%

54.5%

20.0%

11.1%

12.5%

.0%

15.4%

16.7%

14.3%

18.2%

60.0%

.0%

16.7%

.0%

14.3%

.0%

28.6%

55.6%

.0%

16.7%

.0%

14.3%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

55.6%

75.0%

42.9%

22.2%

61.5%

16.7%

66.7%

28.6%

27.3%

20.0%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

5 100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 7

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

20.0%

28.6%

66.7%

28.6%

42.9%

60.0%

.0%

33.3%

.0%

33.3%

57.1%

40.0%

28.6%

.0%

28.6%

20.0%

25.0%

16.7%

.0%

33.3%

.0%

14.3%

.0%

8.3%

.0%

40.0%

.0%

11.1%

28.6%

.0%

8.3%

16.7%

.0%

28.6%

11.1%

42.9%

28.6%

20.0%

58.3%

33.3%

60.0%

22.2%

42.9%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

20.0%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

25.0%

28.6%

66.7%

11.1%

12.5%

25.0%

11.1%

25.0%

12.5%

14.3%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

11.1%

25.0%

.0%

14.3%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

25.0%

.0%

11.1%

33.3%

.0%

25.0%

.0%

12.5%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

62.5%

42.9%

11.1%

44.4%

55.6%

75.0%

50.0%

66.7%

12.5%

37.5%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

11.1%

.0%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention SEG

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Gender

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

A/B

D/E

762

149

274

157

164

100.0%

Refused Male Female 18

364

398

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

389

118

103

187

202

51.0%

43.6%

43.1%

59.2%

62.8%

55.6%

51.4%

50.8%

158

20.7%

30.2%

25.5%

14.6%

9.8%

22.2%

19.0%

22.4%

7.3%

6.7%

8.0%

7.0%

7.3%

5.6%

7.1%

7.5%

125

16.4%

12.1%

19.7%

15.9%

11.1%

16.5%

16.3%

1.2%

2.7%

1.1%

.6%

.0%

1.4%

1.0%

1.3%

2.0%

.7%

1.3%

1.2%

5.6%

2.2%

.5%

.4%

.0%

1.3%

.6%

.0%

.8%

.0%

1.6%

2.7%

1.8%

.0%

1.8%

.0%

1.6%

1.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

65 years or above

Refused

117

185

351

100.0%

189

.0%

45.5%

50.0%

52.1%

48.1%

53.8%

41.7%

60.0%

13.6%

11.4%

15.4%

23.2%

22.2%

41.7%

20.0%

9.1%

8.6%

8.5%

5.9%

7.4%

.0%

20.0%

22.7%

21.4%

18.8%

18.4%

13.1%

16.7%

.0%

9.1%

5.7%

.9%

1.1%

.0%

1.4%

.9%

1.1%

1.7%

.0%

1.7%

.5%

.0%

1.4%

1.7%

1.6%

1.7%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

640

100.0%

312

48.8%

43.5%

72.2%

50.0%

143

22.3%

21.7%

3.8%

35.0%

7.5%

17.4%

3.8%

5.0%

106

16.6%

13.0%

17.7%

10.0%

1.4%

.0%

1.6%

.0%

.2%

.0%

2.5%

.0%

1.7%

4.3%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

118

495

100.0%

264

67.5%

57.1%

50.0%

31.4%

43.8%

53.3%

118

20.0%

28.6%

12.5%

9.3%

15.6%

23.8%

3.8%

4.8%

12.5%

6.8%

6.3%

8.1%

8.8%

4.8%

12.5%

48.3%

21.9%

10.3%

.0%

4.8%

6.3%

1.7%

6.3%

.6%

.0%

6.3%

.0%

3.1%

1.6%

.0%

.6%

.0%

2.5%

3.1%

1.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

561

100.0%

301

52.4%

70.8%

37.5%

32.5%

44.1%

53.7%

106

21.4%

8.3%

37.5%

32.5%

20.6%

18.9%

4.8%

8.3%

4.2%

10.4%

14.7%

6.8%

16.7%

12.5%

14.3%

20.6%

16.8%

.0%

4.2%

1.3%

.0%

1.2%

.0%

4.2%

3.9%

.0%

1.1%

2.4%

.0%

.4%

2.4%

.0%

5.2%

.0%

1.2%

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

762

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention

Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

(c…

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Dwyfor Meirionnydd Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

18 100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 23

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Pontypridd Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

389

51.0%

72.2%

43.8%

33.3%

38.5%

66.7%

31.3%

56.3%

57.1%

35.0%

158

20.7%

16.7%

18.8%

33.3%

7.7%

16.7%

12.5%

37.5%

4.8%

10.0%

7.3%

5.6%

18.8%

6.7%

7.7%

.0%

31.3%

.0%

35.0%

125

16.4%

.0%

12.5%

13.3%

30.8%

5.6%

18.8%

6.3%

33.3%

10.0%

1.2%

.0%

5.0%

1.3%

.0%

6.3%

13.3%

7.7%

5.6%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

.4%

.0%

5.6%

.0%

1.6%

5.6%

.0%

7.7%

.0%

6.3%

.0%

5.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention

Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

42.9%

52.2%

50.0%

14.3%

50.0%

22.7%

35.3%

19.0%

77.8%

68.2%

33.3%

26.1%

18.2%

9.5%

16.7%

13.6%

35.3%

38.1%

16.7%

22.7%

.0%

4.3%

.0%

5.6%

31.8%

5.9%

9.5%

5.6%

.0%

14.3%

4.3%

27.3%

71.4%

27.8%

27.3%

17.6%

33.3%

.0%

9.1%

.0%

8.7%

4.5%

.0%

4.5%

5.9%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

4.8%

4.3%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Dwyfor Meirionnydd 2

Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

11.1%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 15

65.2% 65.0%

75.0%

71.4%

52.2%

7.7%

50.0%

57.1%

66.7%

68.4%

27.8%

17.4%

.0%

5.0%

19.0%

34.8%

46.2%

31.3%

7.1%

19.0%

10.5%

5.6%

4.3%

5.0%

.0%

4.8%

8.7%

15.4%

.0%

21.4%

4.8%

.0%

20.0%

4.8%

4.3%

15.4%

12.5%

.0%

15.8%

55.6%

13.0% 25.0%

.0%

7.7%

.0%

4.8%

5.3%

.0%

7.7%

.0%

7.1%

.0%

6.3%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

7.1%

4.8%

.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q2c. Aggregated voting intention Constituency Pontypridd Labour Conservative

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys MĂ´n

61.9%

50.0%

76.2%

52.4%

57.1%

61.5%

70.0%

45.0%

50.0%

35.3%

23.8%

35.0%

.0%

14.3%

9.5%

30.8%

15.0%

45.0%

27.3%

35.3%

9.5%

10.0%

4.8%

14.3%

.0%

5.0%

13.6%

.0%

4.8%

5.0%

19.0%

28.6%

9.5%

7.7%

15.0%

.0%

4.5%

29.4%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

4.5%

.0%

4.8%

.0%

5.0%

.0%

Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Green UKIP BNP Other

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? SEG

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0% 168

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 26

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

65 years or above

Refused

104

160

254

468

100.0%

(c…

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

883

100.0%

136

(c…

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

122

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

100.0%

A Labour minority government

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

690

100.0%

118

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? SEG Base: All respondents A Labour minority government

16.0% 303

A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition

28.9%

D/E Refused Male Female

13.0% 11.5% 17.5% 25.9% 55

112

27.5% 30.0% 30.0% 27.6%

6.5% 8 25.8%

16.7% 15.4% 166

137

33.7% 24.6%

8.5%

9.7%

8.8%

7.0%

3.2%

7.3%

9.5%

7.3%

8.0%

8.8%

6.9%

5.3%

3.2%

7.3%

7.4%

130

9.2%

8.8%

.0%

12.4% 282

Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

A/B

Gender

26.9%

15.0% 16.1% 56

28.0% 23.9% 27.6% 25.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

61.3%

13.0% 11.8% 108

174

22.0% 31.2%

65 years or above

Refused

20.0%

25.0%

17.3%

16.9%

15.7%

15.2%

9.5%

132

10.0%

28.1%

27.9%

29.4%

31.9%

28.2%

19.0%

.0%

6.3%

10.6%

11.9%

7.1%

7.9%

9.5%

20.0%

6.3%

8.7%

2.5%

4.7%

9.8%

9.5%

30.0%

6.3%

17.3%

15.0%

12.6%

10.9%

.0%

131

20.0%

28.1%

18.3%

24.4%

28.0%

52.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

15.4%

17.6%

22.2%

12.1%

251

28.4%

20.6%

36.4%

27.3%

8.8%

11.8%

6.1%

3.0%

7.7%

8.8%

4.0%

6.1%

119

13.5%

14.7%

5.1%

3.0%

231

26.2%

26.5%

26.3%

48.5%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

16.2%

16.7%

10.0%

9.8%

16.7%

17.5%

168

38.1%

26.7%

35.0%

43.8%

31.0%

24.0%

4.8%

13.3%

20.0%

6.5%

.0%

9.4%

7.6%

3.3%

10.0%

4.6%

7.1%

8.0%

7.6%

16.7%

10.0%

15.0%

14.3%

12.3%

201

25.7%

23.3%

15.0%

20.3%

31.0%

28.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

13.2%

20.0%

.0%

11.3%

.0%

1.9%

10.0%

.0%

8.1%

12.1%

9.1%

1.6%

5.7%

44.4% 12.9% 27.3% 1

17.1%

13.3%

231

33.5%

20.0%

11.7%

7.3%

8.8%

.0%

9.1%

12.1%

7.4%

12.2%

6.5%

20.0%

10.9%

6.7%

160

23.2%

40.0%

10.6% 12.2%

11.1% 11.1% 19.4% 21.2% 30.3% 21.3% 29.3%

20.0% 11.1% 33.3%

11.3%

10.0%

.0%

19.4%

9.1%

56.6%

9.1%

15.2% 23.4% 12.2% 8

40.0% 77.8% 11.1% 38.7% 21.2% 24.2% 25.5% 26.8%

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

1049

100.0%

168

16.0%

27.3%

9.5%

.0%

21.1%

16.7%

17.4%

17.2%

10.3%

14.3%

303

28.9%

27.3%

14.3%

37.0%

26.3%

37.5%

26.1%

10.3%

27.6%

14.3%

8.5%

9.1%

14.3%

.0%

5.3%

4.2%

17.4%

6.9%

25.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

3.3%

10.8%

10.7%

6.9%

18.5%

4.0%

16.0%

3.7%

26.1%

16.0%

16.7%

16.2%

42.9%

44.8%

29.6%

36.0%

32.0%

25.9%

34.8%

40.0%

23.3%

8.1%

7.1%

.0%

16.0%

8.0%

7.4%

4.3%

8.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Dwyfor Meirionnydd 20

Base: All respondents A Labour minority government A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition A Labour- Conservative coalition

100.0%

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re 28

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

5.0%

28.6%

20.8%

37.9%

40.0%

20.7%

8.7%

17.9%

20.8%

14.3%

15.4%

40.0%

32.1%

41.7%

24.1%

28.0%

17.2%

26.1%

28.6%

29.2%

35.7%

46.2%

10.0%

10.7%

8.3%

3.4%

4.0%

10.3%

17.4%

10.7%

12.5%

7.1%

3.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

21.4%

4.0%

58.3%

11.1%

6.5%

10.7%

26.9%

3.2%

20.0%

9.1%

35.7%

32.0%

29.2%

44.4%

32.3%

14.3%

23.1%

12.9%

24.0%

31.8%

7.1%

12.0%

.0%

11.1%

16.1%

7.1%

3.8%

3.2%

4.0%

4.5%

(c…

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Arfon Blaenau Gwent

Brecon and Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central

7.3%

4.5%

4.8%

18.5%

10.5%

8.3%

8.7%

13.8%

6.9%

10.7%

130

12.4%

9.1%

23.8%

14.8%

5.3%

4.2%

8.7%

20.7%

6.9%

3.6%

282

26.9%

22.7%

33.3%

29.6%

31.6%

29.2%

21.7%

31.0%

41.4%

32.1%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?

A Labour- Conservative coalition A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff North

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

10.0%

2.7%

3.6%

3.4%

7.4%

4.0%

.0%

7.4%

4.3%

8.0%

16.7%

18.9%

3.6%

17.2%

18.5%

12.0%

28.0%

22.2%

8.7%

12.0%

30.0%

43.2%

32.1%

27.6%

25.9%

28.0%

16.0%

33.3%

21.7%

16.0%

(c…

Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...? Dwyfor Meirionnydd A Labour- Conservative coalition

15.0%

7.1%

.0%

12.0%

.0%

8.7%

7.1%

4.2%

14.3%

7.7%

.0%

3.6%

12.5%

6.9%

8.0%

10.3%

13.0%

17.9%

8.3%

.0%

7.7%

27.6%

8.0%

41.4%

26.1%

17.9%

25.0%

28.6%

19.2%

A Plaid Cymru-ConservativeLiberal Democrat coalition Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)

Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore and Rhymney re

30.0%

17.9% 16.7%

(c…

Preseli Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Pembrokeshire

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

7.1%

12.0%

.0%

7.4%

3.2%

25.0%

.0%

6.5%

8.0%

13.6%

14.3%

12.0%

4.2%

11.1%

16.1%

14.3%

23.1%

29.0%

8.0%

9.1%

14.3%

28.0%

8.3%

14.8%

25.8%

28.6%

23.1%

45.2%

36.0%

31.8%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? SEG

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

581

198

137

150

263

318

55.4%

40.5%

53.1%

63.1%

65.8%

48.4%

53.5%

57.1%

330

132

185

145

31.5%

48.5%

35.4%

23.5%

18.9%

22.6%

37.6%

26.0%

138

13.2%

11.0%

11.5%

13.4%

15.4%

29.0%

8.9%

16.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

142

256

472

50.0%

75.0%

57.7%

53.1%

55.9%

54.7%

42.9%

53.5%

70.6%

72.7%

39.4%

148

298

40.0%

21.9%

32.7%

31.9%

30.3%

31.6%

42.9%

33.7%

14.7%

15.2%

36.4%

113

10.0%

3.1%

9.6%

15.0%

13.8%

13.7%

14.3%

12.8%

14.7%

12.1%

24.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

361

66.7%

63.3%

55.0%

60.1%

66.7%

51.6%

245

21.9%

26.7%

25.0%

26.1%

21.4%

35.1%

11.4%

10.0%

20.0%

13.7%

11.9%

13.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

690

100.0%

393

52.8%

40.0%

44.4%

62.9%

54.5%

57.6%

43.6%

58.5%

57.0%

46.7%

209

34.0%

50.0%

22.2%

33.3%

24.2%

21.2%

36.4%

45.7%

29.3%

30.3%

26.7%

13.2%

10.0%

33.3%

22.2%

12.9%

24.2%

6.1%

10.6%

12.2%

12.8%

26.7%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Base: All respondents 1049

Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy 22

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Base: All respondents

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire 27

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Vale of Glamorgan 31

Wrexham Ynys Môn 25

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

100.0%

581

55.4%

40.9%

57.1%

63.0%

63.2%

45.8%

56.5%

41.4%

55.2%

42.9%

46.7%

330

31.5%

40.9%

33.3%

18.5%

21.1%

41.7%

34.8%

51.7%

31.0%

42.9%

40.0%

138

13.2%

18.2%

9.5%

18.5%

15.8%

12.5%

8.7%

6.9%

13.8%

14.3%

13.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?

Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

43.2%

50.0%

62.1%

63.0%

52.0%

68.0%

37.8%

35.7%

20.7%

25.9%

18.9%

14.3%

17.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

51.9%

60.9%

60.0%

65.0%

64.3%

28.0%

24.0%

37.0%

26.1%

36.0%

30.0%

28.6%

11.1%

20.0%

8.0%

11.1%

13.0%

4.0%

5.0%

7.1%

Islwyn Llanelli Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% Yes No Don't know

100.0%

50.0%

62.1%

76.0%

65.5%

39.1%

53.6%

54.2%

60.7%

73.1%

42.9%

52.0%

62.5%

33.3%

24.1%

20.0%

24.1%

43.5%

32.1%

20.8%

32.1%

19.2%

39.3%

32.0%

25.0%

16.7%

13.8%

4.0%

10.3%

17.4%

14.3%

25.0%

7.1%

7.7%

17.9%

16.0%

12.5%

(c…

Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system? Constituency Vale of Glamorgan

Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

63.0%

58.1%

46.4%

53.8%

45.2%

64.0%

50.0%

22.2%

29.0%

42.9%

23.1%

45.2%

32.0%

22.7%

14.8%

12.9%

10.7%

23.1%

9.7%

4.0%

27.3%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

690

100.0%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E Refused Male Female

568

191

141

146

54.1% 397

No Don't know

Gender

37.8%

38.0% 51.2% 65.0% 64.0% 111

162

45.2%

55.5% 43.4% 27.2% 23.2%

38.7%

243

325

49.4% 58.3% 222

175

45.1% 31.4%

8.0%

6.5%

5.4%

7.8%

12.7%

16.1%

5.5%

10.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

129

240

452

90.0%

65.6%

67.3%

55.6%

50.8%

51.3%

47.6%

51.2%

76.5%

75.8%

45.5%

191

365

10.0%

25.0%

29.8%

35.0%

39.0%

40.8%

52.4%

41.3%

11.8%

13.1%

45.5%

.0%

9.4%

2.9%

9.4%

10.2%

7.9%

.0%

7.5%

11.8%

11.1%

9.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

343

61.9%

70.0%

55.0%

64.7%

69.0%

49.1%

308

26.7%

23.3%

25.0%

28.1%

14.3%

44.1%

11.4%

6.7%

20.0%

7.2%

16.7%

6.9%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Yes

58.5% 18

No Don't know

34.0%

40.0% 22.2% 44.4% 59.7% 69.7% 66.7% 46.8% 53.7% 6

60.0% 55.6% 44.4% 24.2% 27.3% 27.3% 50.0% 39.0%

7.5%

.0%

22.2% 11.1% 16.1%

372

53.9%

46.7%

264

38.3%

26.7%

3.0%

6.1%

3.2%

7.3%

7.8%

26.7%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1049

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

568

54.1%

50.0%

52.4%

55.6%

68.4%

54.2%

60.9%

27.6%

55.2%

39.3%

60.0%

397

37.8%

40.9%

38.1%

33.3%

26.3%

37.5%

39.1%

62.1%

31.0%

46.4%

36.7%

8.0%

9.1%

9.5%

11.1%

5.3%

8.3%

.0%

10.3%

13.8%

14.3%

3.3%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

40.5%

60.7%

65.5%

63.0%

52.0%

68.0%

59.3%

48.6%

35.7%

34.5%

37.0%

36.0%

10.8%

3.6%

.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

65.2%

52.0%

70.0%

64.3%

28.0%

25.9%

30.4%

48.0%

20.0%

35.7%

12.0%

4.0%

14.8%

4.3%

.0%

10.0%

.0%

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

54.2%

75.9%

72.0%

41.4%

39.1%

50.0%

42.9%

53.8%

53.6%

56.0%

54.2%

41.7%

17.2%

28.0%

55.2%

52.2%

39.3%

29.2%

42.9%

34.6%

35.7%

36.0%

33.3%

4.2%

6.9%

.0%

3.4%

8.7%

10.7%

20.8%

14.3%

11.5%

10.7%

8.0%

12.5%

(c…

Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

63.0%

45.2%

42.9%

53.8%

38.7%

64.0%

50.0%

25.9%

45.2%

57.1%

23.1%

54.8%

32.0%

40.9%

11.1%

9.7%

.0%

23.1%

6.5%

4.0%

9.1%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

690

100.0%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

409

157

39.0% 447

42.6% 193

Don't know

18.4%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 85

41.5% 42.1% 33.2% 37.3% 88

159

38.7%

44.0% 42.6% 43.8% 42.5% 29

25.8%

14.5% 15.3% 23.0% 20.2%

35.5%

192

217

39.0% 39.0% 230

217

46.7% 39.0% 70

123

14.2% 22.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

156

350

70.0%

59.4%

55.8%

41.3%

37.0%

33.3%

42.9%

39.6%

50.0%

30.3%

36.4%

110

231

378

20.0%

25.0%

26.9%

39.4%

43.3%

49.4%

23.8%

42.8%

38.2%

45.5%

33.3%

155

10.0%

15.6%

17.3%

19.4%

19.7%

17.3%

33.3%

17.6%

11.8%

24.2%

30.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

276

33.3%

40.0%

25.0%

41.8%

40.5%

39.5%

309

47.6%

40.0%

35.0%

35.3%

35.7%

44.2%

114

19.0%

20.0%

40.0%

22.9%

23.8%

16.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Yes

37.7% 24

45.3% 9

Don't know

17.0%

50.0% 33.3% 11.1% 41.9% 42.4% 51.5% 45.7% 36.6% 3

30.0% 44.4% 55.6% 29.0% 27.3% 27.3% 41.5% 41.5% 2

20.0% 22.2% 33.3% 29.0% 30.3% 21.2% 12.8% 22.0%

261

37.8%

26.7%

312

45.2%

46.7%

117

17.0%

26.7%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1049

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

409

39.0%

18.2%

19.0%

59.3%

42.1%

16.7%

56.5%

27.6%

51.7%

32.1%

50.0%

447

42.6%

54.5%

47.6%

18.5%

36.8%

66.7%

30.4%

55.2%

20.7%

39.3%

36.7%

193

18.4%

27.3%

33.3%

22.2%

21.1%

16.7%

13.0%

17.2%

27.6%

28.6%

13.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

37.8%

42.9%

58.6%

40.7%

60.0%

40.0%

48.1%

40.5%

35.7%

24.1%

29.6%

20.0%

21.6%

21.4%

17.2%

29.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

39.1%

52.0%

55.0%

14.3%

52.0%

29.6%

56.5%

36.0%

35.0%

60.7%

20.0%

8.0%

22.2%

4.3%

12.0%

10.0%

25.0%

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

33.3%

31.0%

36.0%

41.4%

65.2%

25.0%

32.1%

42.3%

35.7%

40.0%

20.8%

54.2%

41.4%

52.0%

51.7%

26.1%

64.3%

54.2%

53.6%

38.5%

42.9%

40.0%

58.3%

12.5%

27.6%

12.0%

6.9%

8.7%

10.7%

20.8%

14.3%

19.2%

21.4%

20.0%

20.8%

(c…

Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

55.6%

32.3%

35.7%

38.5%

35.5%

44.0%

27.3%

25.9%

38.7%

57.1%

38.5%

54.8%

40.0%

50.0%

18.5%

29.0%

7.1%

23.1%

9.7%

16.0%

22.7%

Q7. Does this make you feel? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

690

100.0%

Q7. Does this make you feel? SEG

Happy

Base: All respondents

A/B

227

21.6% 223

Frustrated

21.3% 599

Neither

57.1%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 48

18.0% 20.4% 28.1% 21.1% 50

19.4%

25.0% 25.2% 20.3% 14.0% 114

203

112

9.7%

148

57.0% 54.4% 51.6% 64.9%

71.0%

125

102

25.4% 18.3% 110

113

22.4% 20.3% 257

342

52.2% 61.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Happy Frustrated Neither

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

126

187

10.0%

12.5%

18.3%

13.8%

20.9%

26.9%

9.5%

21.2%

11.8%

32.3%

12.1%

102

199

.0%

15.6%

15.4%

21.9%

25.2%

21.8%

4.8%

22.5%

11.8%

16.2%

12.1%

103

137

240

497

90.0%

71.9%

66.3%

64.4%

53.9%

51.3%

85.7%

56.3%

76.5%

51.5%

75.8%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

142

22.9%

23.3%

5.0%

27.5%

26.2%

20.3%

150

21.0%

20.0%

55.0%

14.4%

28.6%

21.5%

407

56.2%

56.7%

40.0%

58.2%

45.2%

58.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote Happy Frustrated

3.8%

.0%

11.1%

9.7%

18.9% 41

Neither

77.4%

12.1% 15.2% 21.3% 12.2% 8

30.0% 22.2% 11.1% 17.7% 24.2% 21.2% 19.1% 22.0% 7

70.0% 77.8% 77.8% 72.6% 63.6% 63.6% 59.6% 65.9%

182

26.4%

13.3%

150

21.7%

26.7%

358

51.9%

60.0%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1049

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q7. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Happy Frustrated Neither

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

227

21.6%

31.8%

14.3%

14.8%

36.8%

16.7%

17.4%

6.9%

17.2%

17.9%

20.0%

223

21.3%

31.8%

14.3%

18.5%

5.3%

25.0%

13.0%

31.0%

24.1%

17.9%

23.3%

599

57.1%

36.4%

71.4%

66.7%

57.9%

58.3%

69.6%

62.1%

58.6%

64.3%

56.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q7. Does this make you feel?

Happy Frustrated Neither

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

24.3%

32.1%

20.7%

11.1%

24.0%

20.0%

11.1%

27.0%

17.9%

10.3%

25.9%

12.0%

48.6%

50.0%

69.0%

63.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

13.0%

20.0%

10.0%

25.0%

4.0%

14.8%

13.0%

12.0%

20.0%

28.6%

64.0%

76.0%

74.1%

73.9%

68.0%

70.0%

46.4%

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Happy Frustrated Neither

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

33.3%

34.5%

24.0%

17.2%

30.4%

28.6%

16.7%

35.7%

23.1%

21.4%

16.0%

37.5%

8.3%

17.2%

16.0%

20.7%

26.1%

28.6%

33.3%

14.3%

23.1%

25.0%

32.0%

25.0%

58.3%

48.3%

60.0%

62.1%

43.5%

42.9%

50.0%

53.8%

53.6%

52.0%

37.5%

(c…

Q7. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Happy Frustrated Neither

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

29.6%

25.8%

17.9%

23.1%

19.4%

16.0%

9.1%

11.1%

16.1%

39.3%

26.9%

35.5%

24.0%

27.3%

59.3%

58.1%

42.9%

50.0%

45.2%

60.0%

63.6%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

690

100.0%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? SEG

Yes

Base: All respondents

A/B

257

24.5% 642

150

Don't know

225

136

22.6%

145

59.5% 60.3% 62.7% 63.6% 24

14.3%

D/E Refused Male Female

28.5% 25.7% 22.6% 21.1% 119

61.2%

Gender

54.8%

12.0% 13.9% 14.7% 15.4%

115

142

23.4% 25.5% 334

308

67.9% 55.3%

107

22.6%

8.7%

19.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Yes No Don't know

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

228

40.0%

43.8%

29.8%

34.4%

21.7%

19.9%

23.8%

25.8%

29.4%

14.1%

15.2%

159

322

533

40.0%

37.5%

50.0%

49.4%

62.6%

68.8%

66.7%

60.4%

55.9%

68.7%

66.7%

122

20.0%

18.8%

20.2%

16.3%

15.7%

11.3%

9.5%

13.8%

14.7%

17.2%

18.2%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

178

21.9%

30.0%

18.3%

31.0%

25.5%

101

419

65.7%

50.0%

65.0%

66.0%

59.5%

59.9%

102

12.4%

20.0%

5.0%

15.7%

9.5%

14.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Yes

22.6% 28

Don't know

60.0% 44.4% 66.7% 56.5% 33.3% 30.3% 63.8% 63.4% 2

24.5%

20.0% 11.1% 11.1% 29.0% 21.2% 42.4% 30.9% 22.0% 6

52.8%

20.0% 44.4% 22.2% 14.5% 45.5% 27.3%

159

23.0%

33.3%

448

64.9%

53.3%

5.3%

14.6%

12.0%

13.3%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1049

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Base: All respondents Yes No Don't know

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

257

24.5%

27.3%

28.6%

37.0%

21.1%

12.5%

13.0%

24.1%

34.5%

14.3%

36.7%

642

61.2%

68.2%

52.4%

40.7%

63.2%

87.5%

73.9%

51.7%

67.9%

46.7%

150

14.3%

4.5%

19.0%

22.2%

15.8%

.0%

13.0%

24.1%

13.8%

17.9%

16.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?

Yes No Don't know

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

40.5%

28.6%

17.2%

14.8%

20.0%

24.0%

44.4%

51.4%

57.1%

51.7%

55.6%

56.0%

8.1%

14.3%

31.0%

29.6%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

17.4%

12.0%

50.0%

21.4%

68.0%

25.9%

73.9%

84.0%

40.0%

71.4%

24.0%

8.0%

29.6%

8.7%

4.0%

10.0%

7.1%

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Yes No Don't know

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

12.5%

13.8%

20.0%

27.6%

34.8%

28.6%

20.8%

21.4%

30.8%

14.3%

36.0%

.0%

83.3%

65.5%

68.0%

58.6%

47.8%

53.6%

62.5%

64.3%

61.5%

64.3%

52.0%

100.0%

4.2%

20.7%

12.0%

13.8%

17.4%

17.9%

16.7%

14.3%

7.7%

21.4%

12.0%

.0%

(c…

Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Yes No Don't know

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

48.1%

12.9%

32.1%

15.4%

32.3%

16.0%

13.6%

40.7%

71.0%

64.3%

73.1%

58.1%

56.0%

81.8%

11.1%

16.1%

3.6%

11.5%

9.7%

28.0%

4.5%

Q9. Does this make you feel? SEG

Base: All respondents

Gender

Base: All respondents

A/B

D/E

1049

200

373

217

228

100.0%

Refused Male Female 31

492

557

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure 65 years or above

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Base: All respondents

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

104

160

254

468

883

100.0%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

105

153

699

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? 1 - Not going to vote 53

Base: All respondents

Other

(c…

Base: All respondents

Rented from Council or Housing Association

100.0%

Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote 10

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

690

100.0%

Q9. Does this make you feel? SEG

Happy

Base: All respondents

A/B

296

28.2% 195

Frustrated

18.6% 558

Neither

53.2%

Gender D/E Refused Male Female 59

30.0% 26.0% 35.0% 25.9% 36

12.9%

18.0% 21.7% 17.1% 15.4% 104

195

104

19.4%

134

52.0% 52.3% 47.9% 58.8%

67.7%

169

127

34.3% 22.8% 90

105

18.3% 18.9% 233

325

47.4% 58.3%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel? Age

Tenure

18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years

Happy Frustrated Neither

65 years or above

Rented from Refused Owner occupied private landlord

Rented from Council or Housing Association

Other

142

242

20.0%

12.5%

17.3%

25.6%

33.9%

30.3%

14.3%

27.4%

26.5%

40.4%

15.2%

102

166

.0%

6.3%

18.3%

14.4%

17.7%

21.8%

19.0%

18.8%

20.6%

17.2%

15.2%

123

224

475

80.0%

81.3%

64.4%

60.0%

48.4%

47.9%

66.7%

53.8%

52.9%

42.4%

69.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Other combination of skills

No skills in Welsh

178

32.4%

33.3%

40.0%

30.1%

47.6%

25.5%

141

19.0%

16.7%

15.0%

14.4%

9.5%

20.2%

380

48.6%

50.0%

45.0%

55.6%

42.9%

54.4%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel? Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote') 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Don't know vote vote Happy Frustrated Neither

13.2%

10.0%

.0%

18.9%

.0%

67.9%

12.9% 12.1% 18.2% 28.7% 19.5% 10

22.2% 22.2% 16.1% 15.2% 12.1% 18.1% 14.6% 7

90.0% 77.8% 77.8% 71.0% 72.7% 69.7% 53.2% 65.9%

233

33.8%

13.3%

134

19.4%

33.3%

323

46.8%

53.3%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Base: All respondents

Aberavon Aberconwy

Alyn and Deeside

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

1049

100.0%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

100.0%

Base: All respondents

Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli 24

Base: All respondents

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Base: All respondents

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

100.0%

(c…

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Q9. Does this make you feel? Base: All respondents Happy Frustrated Neither

Aberavon Aberconwy

Constituency Brecon and Arfon Blaenau Gwent Radnorshire

Alyn and Deeside

Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North

296

28.2%

36.4%

28.6%

22.2%

31.6%

50.0%

17.4%

20.7%

32.1%

36.7%

195

18.6%

22.7%

9.5%

7.4%

21.1%

20.8%

21.7%

27.6%

20.7%

3.6%

16.7%

558

53.2%

40.9%

61.9%

70.4%

47.4%

29.2%

60.9%

51.7%

58.6%

64.3%

46.7%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Q9. Does this make you feel?

Happy Frustrated Neither

Constituency Carmarthen West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Pembrokeshire

Cardiff South and Penarth

Cardiff West

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

16.2%

39.3%

17.2%

18.5%

32.0%

36.0%

25.9%

24.3%

21.4%

10.3%

7.4%

8.0%

59.5%

39.3%

72.4%

74.1%

(câ&#x20AC;Ś

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Gower

34.8%

44.0%

15.0%

39.3%

12.0%

3.7%

21.7%

28.0%

10.0%

17.9%

60.0%

52.0%

70.4%

43.5%

28.0%

75.0%

42.9%

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Islwyn Llanelli Happy Frustrated Neither

Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire

20.8%

37.9%

24.0%

24.1%

26.1%

25.0%

20.8%

32.1%

38.5%

25.0%

36.0%

33.3%

25.0%

24.1%

16.0%

20.7%

17.4%

14.3%

20.8%

14.3%

15.4%

10.7%

28.0%

20.8%

54.2%

37.9%

60.0%

55.2%

56.5%

60.7%

58.3%

53.6%

46.2%

64.3%

36.0%

45.8%

(c…

Q9. Does this make you feel? Constituency Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Happy Frustrated Neither

Vale of Glamorgan

Wrexham Ynys Môn

29.6%

22.6%

25.0%

23.1%

12.9%

40.0%

27.3%

14.8%

19.4%

25.0%

38.5%

35.5%

24.0%

18.2%

55.6%

58.1%

50.0%

38.5%

51.6%

36.0%

54.5%

Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

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