ITJEMAST 12(10) 2021 by TuEngr.com

Volume 12 Issue 10 (2021) ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

http://TuEngr.com Psychological Impacts of the COVID19 Pandemic Lockdown on International Medical Students: A Cross-sectional Study in China Management Aspects for the Integrated Agro-industrial Formations in Russia Optimized Deep Learning Procedure by Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms for Determining Reservoir Inflow A Review on Wire Electrical Discharge Machining of Advanced Conductive Materials

Roles of Social Media in Promoting the Values of Moderation and Centrism: A Case Study of Saudi Youths A Mini-Review of Flying Ad Hoc Networks Mobility Model for Disaster Areas Climate Change's Impact on Pakistani Agriculture and Food Sector: Media Reporting and Its Analysis An Improved Multi-Reservoir Operation using Gridline Operating Rule for Water Management in Chao Phraya River Basin Roles of the Mechanisms of Merging and Deleting Internal Spaces in Realizing Economic Design for Affordable Houses in the City of Mosul Integration of Satellite Images and Echosounder Data for Mapping of Water Area: A Case Study of Huai Prue Reservoir in Thailand Impacts of Remote Working on Employees During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Macro Environmental Factors in the Development of Public-Private Partnership in Russia

The Significance of Retained Earnings Based Firm Valuation Model during Military Regime Era in Pakistan

A Systematic Review of Business Models for Sustainable Innovation

Analysing Malaysian Houses with Discursive Idea

Domestic Market Stability through Concentration Assessment: The Case of Russian Grain Exports

Mechanical and Microstructural Properties of Alccofine Based Geopolymer Concrete

CEO Duality Political Connection and Firms’ Reporting Earnings Quality in Egyptian Firms

Optimization of Low-Pressure Compressor Blades Campus Sustainability Framework: Bibliometric Literature Review Analysis The Relationship between Financial Anxiety and Sugar Dating among Students at Pedagogical Universities in Vietnam

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

International Editorial Board

Editor-in-Chief Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, PhD Professor Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA

Executive Editor Boonsap Witchayangkoon, PhD Associate Professor Thammasat University, THAILAND

Editorial Board:

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Gadi (University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM) Professor Dr.Hitoshi YAMADA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Professor Dr. Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN ) Professor Dr.Mikio SATOMURA (Shizuoka University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN) Emeritus Professor Dr.Mike Jenks (Oxford Brookes University, UNITED KINGDOM ) Professor Dr.I Nyoman Pujawan (Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA) Professor Dr.Toshio YOSHII (EHIME University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Neven Duić (University of Zagreb, CROATIA) Professor Dr.Dewan Muhammad Nuruzzaman (University Malaysia Pahang MALAYSIA) Professor Dr.Masato SAITOH (Saitama University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Sergei Shlykov (Stavropol State Agrarian University, RUSSIA)

Scientific and Technical Committee & Editorial Review Board on Engineering, Technologies and Applied Sciences:

Associate Prof. Dr. Paulo Cesar Lima Segantine (University of São Paulo, BRASIL) Associate Prof. Dr. Kurt B. Wurm (New Mexico State University, USA ) Associate Prof. Dr. Truong V.B.Giang (Vietnam National University, Hanoi, VIETNAM) Associate Prof. Dr. Fatemeh Khozaei (Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch, IRAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Zoe D. Ziaka (International Hellenic University, GREECE) Associate Prof.Dr. Junji SHIKATA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Associate Prof.Dr. Sillapaporn Srijunpetch (Thammasat University, Thailand) Assistant Prof.Dr. Akeel Noori Abdul Hameed (University of Sharjah, UAE) Assistant Prof.Dr. Rohit Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, INDIA) Assistant Prof. Dr.Muhammad Yar Khan (COMSATS University, Pakistan) Assistant Prof. Dr. David Kuria (Kimathi University College of Technology, KENYA) Dr. Mazran bin Ismail (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA ) Dr. Salahaddin Yasin Baper (Salahaddin University - Hawler, IRAQ ) Dr. Foong Swee Yeok (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA) Dr.Azusa FUKUSHIMA (Kobe Gakuin University, JAPAN) Dr.Yasser Arab (Karabuk University, TURKEY) Dr.Arslan Khalid (Shandong University, CHINA) Dr.Viktor S. Kukhar (Ural State Agrarian University, Yekaterinburg, RUSSIA)

:: International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

Volume 12 Issue 10 (2021) http://TuEngr.com

ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

Roles of Social Media in Promoting the Values of Moderation and Centrism: A Case Study of Saudi Youths

12A10A

A Mini-Review of Flying Ad Hoc Networks Mobility Model for Disaster Areas

12A10B

Climate Change's Impact on Pakistani Agriculture and Food Sector: Media Reporting and Its Analysis

12A10C

An Improved Multi-Reservoir Operation using Gridline Operating Rule for Water Management in Chao Phraya River Basin

12A10D

Roles of the Mechanisms of Merging and Deleting Internal Spaces in Realizing Economic Design for Affordable Houses in the City of Mosul

12A10E

Integration of Satellite Images and Echo-sounder Data for Mapping of Water Area: A Case Study of Huai Prue Reservoir in Thailand

12A10F

Impacts of Remote Working on Employees During the COVID-19 Pandemic

12A10G

The Significance of Retained Earnings Based Firm Valuation Model during Military Regime Era in Pakistan

12A10H

Analysing Malaysian Houses with Discursive Idea

12A10I

Mechanical and Microstructural Properties of Alccofine Based Geopolymer Concrete

12A10J

Optimization of Low-Pressure Compressor Blades

12A10K

Campus Sustainability Framework: Bibliometric Literature Review Analysis

12A10L

The Relationship between Financial Anxiety and Sugar Dating among Students at Pedagogical Universities in Vietnam

12A10M

Psychological Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on International Medical Students: A Cross-sectional Study in China

12A10N

Management Aspects for the Integrated Agro-industrial Formations in Russia

12A10O

Optimized Deep Learning Procedure by Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms for Determining Reservoir Inflow

12A10P

A Review on Wire Electrical Discharge Machining of Advanced Conductive Materials

12A10Q

Macro Environmental Factors in the Development of PublicPrivate Partnership in Russia

12A10R

A Systematic Review of Business Models for Sustainable Innovation

12A10S

Domestic Market Stability through Concentration Assessment: The Case of Russian Grain Exports

12A10T

CEO Duality Political Connection and Firms’ Reporting Earnings Quality in Egyptian Firms

12A10U

Contacts: Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan (Editor-in-Chief), School of Housing, Building and Planning, UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA, 11800 Minden, Penang, MALAYSIA. Tel: +60-4-653-2835 Fax: +60-4-657 6523, Sanusi @ usm.my, Editor @ TuEngr.com Associate Professor Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon (Executive Editor), Thammasat School of Engineering, THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY, Klong-Luang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel: +66-2-5643005 Ext 3101. Fax: +66-25643022 DrBoonsap @ gmail.com, Editor @ TuEngr.com Managing Office TUENGR Group, 88/244 Moo 3, Moo Baan Saransiri, Klong#2, KlongLuang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel/WhatsApp: +66-995535450 (text only). Postal Paid in MALAYSIA/THAILAND.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Roles of Social Media in Promoting the Values of Moderation and Centrism: A Case Study of Saudi Youths Mushabab bin Gharamah Al Asmari1* 1

Department of Sociology and Social Service, College of Arts and Humanities, King Abdulaziz University, SAUDI ARABIA. *Corresponding Author (Email: Malasmari@kau.edu.sa).

Paper ID: 12A10A Volume 12 Issue 10

Abstract

Youths are the most social media user group. They are the most vital group on which society depends a lot in achieving development and Received 03 May 2021 Received in revised form 09 progress. As well, they are considered the most affected, positively or July 2021 negatively, by the cultural and value data that these social media produce. Accepted 12 July 2021 From this point of view, this study sought to know the role of social media in Available online 19 July promoting the values of moderation and centrism, especially among the 2021 youth group in Saudi society, as an applied scientific contribution to Keywords: diagnosing the actual reality, and a foreseeing of the hoped-for future in Saudi youth group; light of the Kingdom’s vision 2030. The study used the analytical descriptive Adopting positive ideas; Cutural benefits; Social method of a sample of Saudi youth, consisting of 1325 individuals. In its results, the study found several indicators related to the values of value; Skill values; moderation and centrism namely adopting positive ideas that are applicable Online communities; on the ground, striving to benefit from cultural diversity, and adopting Youth Internet use; positive ideas in the light of modern knowledge, enhancing the participation Virtual societies; Negative dimensions of of all society components in various issues, reconciling personal and others’ social media; Positive interests, tolerance and respect for personal and others’ freedom of opinion. dimensions of social Accordingly, the study recommended working on designing practical media; Moral value; The programs for young people on how to deal with modern social media to Internet and youth support cognitive, moral, and skill values. culture; Social networking.

Cite This Article: Al Asmari, M. B. G. (2021). Roles of Social Media in Promoting the Values of Moderation and Centrism: A Case Study of Saudi Youths. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10A, 1-12. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.190

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1 Introduction Human societies live in a changeful system not only imposed by most of the facts of the modern technological era but also as a result of the human aspiration to keep pace with scientific progress and to benefit from the data created by the communication and information revolution. However, the proper keeping pace with development is done through continuous evaluation of everything that is presented through these technologies; So that what suits the needs of the individual and society is chosen, without affecting the system of human values and concepts of the society in which he lives. The certainty of scientific and informational progress is inexhaustible, and its various fields have rooted deep in society, which has brought about a change in the behavior of the individual, his values, and his tendencies, and this change must be accompanied by a certain amount of caution. Facing challenges that conflict with the society's culture and human values, and enabling it to make optimal use of its natural and human resources (Al-Sha’er, 1996). Communication and information transfer technologies have become an essential tributary and an important pillar in building human social, economic, political, and cultural life in light of the cognitive transformations and developments in this era, and which caused our informational and interactive capabilities to increase (Al-Majali, 2007: 23). According to the global report (Kemp, 2021), statistics indicate that the number of active users of social networks in the world will reach about 4.2 billion users at the beginning of the year 2021, as the service penetration rate has increased to about 53.6% of the total world population estimated at 7.8 billion people, and that the average time a user spends on social networks is 2 hours and 25 minutes. The Corona crisis and its accompanying repercussions and measures that limited the movement of people had a significant impact on the increase in the use of the Internet and various means of technology, including social networks, where during the year 2020 they received nearly half a billion new active users. At the level of Saudi society, statistics show that the age group (15-34 years) amounted to 36.70% of the total population and that the percentage of young people who use social networking sites reached 98.43%, while the percentage of young people whose social relationships were affected by social networks was 35.83% (SA-Gov-Stat, 2021). The observer of the prevailing social conditions realizes that the use of social networking sites is on its way to impact the social construction of human societies, and has led to the rapid and effective spread of different patterns of values in art, language, clothing, food, and entertainment, which carry a specific vision of the world that differs radically from the vision of societies at the local level (Abdullah, 1999: 55) as many studies have proven that social networks users have recorded a decrease in the rates of interaction with family and the social circle surrounding them (Al-Sha’ya, 2001: 71). This requires a re-examination of the value system presented by social networks, as nations, in their march towards progress, need to pay attention to their value heritage, to review it, and the changes it may undergo. Despite the severe criticism of social media, which accuses it of having a direct negative impact on society, some see it as an important means for

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promoting cohesion between societies, bringing concepts and visions closer with each other, learning about the cultures of different people, and promoting the values of moderation and centrism, especially in its active and distinguished role as an effective means of communication in mass change movements (Samir, 2008). This study contributes to the scientific and cognitive context for understanding the relationship between social media and social values, in addition to the applied indicators that can be used to enhance such values. Accordingly, the study aims at knowing and diagnosing the roles of modern means of communication in promoting the values of moderation and centrism in Saudi society. It tries to answer the questions: What is the current reality of the use of modern means of communication? What is the positive role of modern means of communication in supporting and promoting the values of moderation and centrism in Saudi society?

2 Social Values Values: a concept that denotes a set of central normative trends that define the individual's goals in social situations, which are evident through his social or verbal behavior (Abdel-Aal, 1986: 34). The social values are the set of beliefs that are characterized by a degree of relative continuity, and that represent directives for people towards goals or means to achieve them or behavioral patterns chosen and preferred by these people as an alternative to others (Al-Husniya, 1426: 18). Some view it as the trends and tendencies of individuals for certain situations that move them in the surrounding environment, and through which it is possible to better identify their trends, as their interaction in the future depends on their values (Al-Abawi, 2007: 173). Hence, positive social values can be defined as a set of rules, principles, and norms that govern behavior and serve as the main criterion in formulating and directing public behavior in a manner that serves the progress of society. It means adherence to the controlling values of the movement of individuals and society such as honesty, moderation, centrism, sincerity, loyalty, fairness, and transparency (Mesbah, 2008: 24). For Durkheim, values actually exist as things and are considered common between certain people and groups, and individuals find fulfillment in them for their desires that they are looking for in diverse and different situations, and each unit in society has its own values regulating the behavior of its members, and Parsons considers values as an essential reference point for analyzing the structure, processes, and interactions of social systems (Faraj, 1980: 46). Perhaps among the indicators of values in the light of the current study is the set of acquired rules that regulate human behavior, and through which a judgment is made on what is desirable and what is undesirable in terms of life and behavioral patterns, and what these values constitute in the end from the values of moderation and centrism.

3 Concept of Moderation and Centrism Centrism in its linguistic status refers to a middle substance, and the middle is a name for what is between the two ends of a thing, and the middle thing is the best and fairest, and it is said the middle of his people, i.e. their best. Al-Hasan Al-Aarabi said: The best of matters is the middle

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one. Ibn Al-Atheer said in this speech (hadith) that every good trait has two blameworthy sides, for generosity is a medium between miserliness and wastefulness, and courage is a medium between cowardice and recklessness (Ibn Manthur, 310). As for moderation: Ibn al-Aarabi said, “Justice is righteousness, and moderation is a state of mediation between two states in terms of quantity or quality, as they say of a moderate body between height and shortness, and everything proportional is moderate.” (Ibn Manthur, 459). The term moderation may not be applied to a matter unless it has the features of charity, integrity, interfaith, ease or relief of embarrassment, the balance between capabilities and duties, between authenticity and modernity, in addition to justice and wisdom (Bilal, 2008). In the common custom, moderation is applied to belief, attitude, behavior, order, treatment, and morals (Emad, 2012: 158). The indicators of moderation and centrism in light of the current study are balancing rights and duties, respecting diversity and difference, and working to select what is positive and stay away from what is negative. Social media and values: There is no doubt that modern means of communication have become more effective and attractive by creating an open space for the transfer of knowledge and culture and the rapprochement of human beings in different countries, which made them a key role in shaping public opinion, especially in intellectual issues, and an effective means of broadcasting and consolidating lofty concepts, values, and principles among the members of society. Hence, appears the importance of investing modern social media in the fields of education, promoting positive values, and instilling new values required by the social future, which is consistent with the pillars of the vision of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2030) in establishing a solid base for economic and social prosperity stemming from the belief in the importance of building a vibrant society which members live according to the principles of moderation, centrism, and pride in the national identity. Given the data of previous studies and by following the prevailing social conditions, it is noted that the use of social networking sites is on its way to influence the social and value building of human societies. This requires a re-examination of the value system provided by social networks to society members in general and to youth in particular, as societies, in their march towards progress and development, need to pay attention to their value heritage, and the changes it may undergo. Despite the severe criticism that social networks are subjected to, accusing them of having a negative and direct impact on the individual, family and society, which were indicated by the results of some previous studies namely the Arab studies (e.g. Kawash 2018; Al-Saidi, 2020; AlMulla, 2021; Fouda, 2021; Shaker 2021) and the foreign studies of (Niemz et al., 2005; Krout et al., 2007; Vansoon, 2010; Iordachescu, 2013) which refer to some indicators, including the control of social media on the individual, behavioral patterns that are somewhat inconsistent with moral values and social norms, weakness and disintegration of family and social relations, psychological isolation, the moral vibration of young people and their weak moral immunity, avoiding social activities without opening effective social horizons with those around them, there are those who see it as an important means of harmony and cohesion between societies, bringing concepts and

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visions closer with each other, getting acquainted with the cultures of different people, and promoting the values of loyalty, identity and belonging, especially in light of its active and distinguished role as a successful means of communication, by creating an open space for the transfer of knowledge and culture, and increasing their interests in areas that were far from them, in light of the false image or media blackout practiced by some media outlets, which made many people resort to modern means of communication as an alternative means or alternative media. As for theoretical approaches, the symbolic interactionist theory considers that social life, both real and virtual, and the processes, phenomena, and incidents that surround it, is nothing but a complex network of interactions and relationships between individuals and groups that make up society, whether virtual or real, which is the final outcome of the use of modern means of communication. Social life's true manifestations can be understood and assimilated by looking at the interactions that occur between individuals and their objective and subjective motives. The symbolic interaction theory clarifies the human model through the role he plays and the behavior he performs towards the other individual who forms a relationship with him during a specific period through the virtual community. To get acquainted with the characteristics and features of the other individual through the interactive virtual relationship that arises between them, and after some time on the emergence of such an interactive virtual relationship between the two persons occupying equal or different social roles, each individual evaluates the other and knows the most important values that he acquired through this knowledge, However, the assessment depends on the language and communication that occurs between them, as well as the elements of the common culture. The theory of uses and gratifications depends on some psychological facts believing that each individual has a special structure of interests, needs, and values that play a role in shaping his choices, as he seeks to satisfy them through exposure to the content he targets through modern means of communication. Perhaps the hypotheses of this theory - in light of the current study - emphasize that young people choose what they prefer and what is consistent with their own values and interests, taking into account the individual differences of young people that control those motives and choices through the content of those means themselves. Based on the foregoing, the current study adopted the positive view that sees the effective and distinguished role of social media in supporting and promoting the values of moderation and centrism among young people in Saudi society.

4 The Study Community and Methodology This study belongs to a type of analytical descriptive studies. It relied on the method of a social survey by sample, using the questionnaire as a tool for collecting data, which was distributed directly (on paper) and electronically to students of King Abdulaziz University - in Jeddah, during the 2021 AD first semester. The study included a sample of 1325 individuals. The majority of the study sample came from males 65.7%, while females 34.3%, and in the age group 17-22 years 65.0%, followed 27.2% for the age group 23-28 years, while the age group (29 years and over) 7.8%. Respondents with an urban background are 77.4%, followed by those belonging to rural life 12.4%.

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It was found that a large percentage of the study sample 69.20% spend more than 4 to more than 6 hours per day on social networks. Among the most important sites that are accessed, ranked according to the most preferred, were entertainment (54.6%), sports (37.6%), social (37.4%), cultural (28.1%), news (24.1%), artistic (17.8), then religious (14.2%). Among the most important motives behind the use of modern means of communication according to their importance were knowing everything new in different fields, spending free time, being an important daily habit, communicating with others, in addition to overcoming the barrier of shyness and free expression of opinion.

5 Results & Discussion Looking at the reality of using social media, the sample 59.7% believe that it is not possible to coexist with life away from these means, and that the respondents 53.1% do not see that the drawbacks of modern means of communication are more than its advantages. The respondents 82.1% believe that virtual societies have a role in building our real societies, and 77.1% believe that virtual societies have become a reality in our world today. From the results, 68.8% believe that the problem is not in the means of social communication as much as it is in the way people use them, and 23.7% believe that the problem is in the content of the medium itself, while only 7.5% view that the problem is the means itself, which indicates that the issue is the goal of using the means and not the means itself. When dealing with some negative dimensions of social media, from Table 1, among the most important negative effects of means of communication, in order of importance, are acquiring some unfamiliar values for the community, unconstructive criticism of some societal issues, penetrating privacy, and acquiring some behaviors that violate the traditions of society. This is consistent with what was indicated by Al-Shawaqi (2003) that the Internet has an effective role in developing new behavioral patterns, and that the acquired behavioral patterns are incompatible with moral values, and that the Internet is an effective means of weakening values among the youth group, and AlOwaidi (2004) confirmed that the Internet has a negative impact on Saudi society, religiously and morally, to a high degree, followed by escaping from reality, not investing free time in a positive way, entering into some illegal relationships, and the existence of a gap between the individual and his family. Al-Khulaifi (2002) confirmed that many drawbacks result from the use of social networking sites for long periods that may reach addiction, which makes these sites completely in control of the individual’s life, and Al-Owaithi (2004) added the existence of a significant correlational relationship between the duration of children's use of the Internet and the effect of that use on the relationship between parents and children, and that the high demand for social networking sites is the most common cause of psychological and social isolation. Sari (2005) also found that there is instability in the family relationship between young people and their families, which represents a kind of concern about the reality of stability in social life. This was confirmed by Obaidat (2003) in terms of the existence of social dangers for the use of the Internet and satellite channels by Gulf youth represented in isolation, and weak social

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relations. Krout (2007) added that the increasing use of the Internet significantly and negatively affects the individual's ability to social interactions with those around him, and lead to depression and social isolation. Table 1: Some negative dimensions of social media #

Variable

Acquisition of some values unfamiliar to the community. Unconstructive criticism of some societal issues. Privacy breach. Acquisition of some behaviors contrary to the traditions of society. Escape from reality. No free time positive investment. Engaging in some illegal relationships. There is a gap between the individual and his family. Tendency to introversion. Not paying attention to education matters. Adopt some extremist ideas. Seeking to avoid others. Encouraging social isolation. Neglecting religious rites.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Yes Number Rate 1101 83.1

No Number 224

Rate 16.9

1075 1072 1071

81.1 80.9 80.8

250 253 254

18.9 19.1 19.2

1020 1010 1003 977 916 905 901 848 842 829

77.0 76.2 75.7 73.7 69.1 68 .3 68.0 64.0 63.5 62.6

305 315 322 348 409 420 424 477 483 496

23.0 23.8 24.3 26.3 30.9 31.7 32.0 36.0 36.5 37.4

By conducting a T-test to find the differences in the answers of the study sample members according to their opinions on the negative aspects of the means of communication, it was found that there are statistically significant differences for all determinants of the negative impact of social media at a lower level of significance of (0.05), which means that there are significant statistic differences between the average opinions of the study sample due to the difference in their opinions on the negative aspects of modern social media. On the other hand, when addressing some of the positive dimensions of social media, it is clear from Table 2 that the priority, in order of importance, is for cultural and intellectual exchange with others, knowing the opinions of others on some societal issues, interaction with people of different cultures, widening the circle of acquaintances and friendships, acquiring the values of self-education and experiences and skills to raise the level of knowledge, openness to the outside world. Al-Khulaifi (2002) added that there is a positive aspect of using social networking sites, which is to bridge the distances between individuals, especially the youth, students, and university students, and help them carry out their scientific tasks and try to bring ideas and points of view closer, in addition to the fact that the presence of the Internet introduced positive changes in the ideas of young people, and the idea of buying everything new in order to keep pace with others, and even the availability of modern communication technologies gives a feeling of independence and self-confidence, as shown by Al-Sheikh (2007). The next in order were expressing freely my opinions and thoughts, entering into positive social relationships, respecting the opinions of others, adopting the values of teamwork, and avoiding selfishness and harming the interests of others. Al-Majali (2006) indicated that the most

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use of the Internet is for scientific and research purposes. Faqira (2006) confirmed young people believe that their use of modern means of communication helped them connect more with values and that one of the strongest reasons that motivate female young people to use these means is the ease of expressing their opinions and the intellectual trends that they cannot express, in addition to intellectual openness and cultural exchange (Al-Shehri, 2012). Added to that, adopting ideas and opinions are to support the customs, traditions, and values of society, taking into account the value of honesty and not misleading others when sending information, and investing time in a positive way. Niemz (2005) confirmed that university students use the Internet in many situations for social supports. Table 2: Some positive dimensions of modern means of communication #

Variable

1 2

Cultural and intellectual exchange with others. Knowing the opinions of others on some societal issues. Interact with people of different cultures. Expanding the circle of acquaintances and friendships. Acquiring the values of self-education, experiences, and skills to raise the level of knowledge. Opening up to the outside world. See the opinions of scientists on some scientific issues. Express freely my opinions and ideas. Engaging in positive social relationships. Respect the opinions of others. Adopting the values of teamwork and avoiding selfishness and harming the interests of others. Adopting ideas and opinions that support the customs, traditions, and values of society. Respect the value of honesty and not misleading others when sending information. Investing time in a positive way.

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Yes Number Rate 1267 95.6 1245 94.0

No Number 58 80

Rate 4.4 6.0

1223 1215

92.3 91.7

102 110

7.7 8.3

1211

91.4

114

8.6

1199 1199

90.5 90.5

126 126

9.5 9.5

1156 1131 1119 1067

87.2 85.4 84.5 80.5

169 194 206 258

12.8 14.6 15.5 19.5

1042

78.6

283

21.4

991

74.8

334

25.2

924

69.7

401

30.3

By conducting a T-test to find the differences in the answers of the study sample members according to their opinions on the positive aspects of the means of communication, it was found that there are statistically significant differences at a lower level of significance (0.05), for the determinants of the positive impact of modern means of communication with regard to respect for the opinions of others, expanding the circle of acquaintance and friendships, expressing freely my opinions and ideas, positive investment of time, interacting with people of different cultures, adopting ideas and opinions that support the customs, traditions, and values of society, acquiring the values of self-education, experiences, and skills to raise the level of knowledge, adopting the values of teamwork and distance from Selfishness and harm to the interests of others. The level of statistical significance for the previous determinants was less than the level of moral significance (0.05), indicating there are statistically significant differences between the average opinions of the study sample due to their different opinions on the positive impact of modern social media.

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Table 3: The role of modern means of communication in spreading and strengthening the values of moderation and centrism #

Variable

Agree Number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Rate

Answers Options Agree to some Disagree extent Number Rate Number Rate

Adopting positive ideas that are applicable 885 66.8 392 to reality. Seeking to benefit from the cultural 853 64.4 416 diversity of others. Enhancing the participation of all segments 842 63.5 401 of society in various issues. Acquiring the tolerant values of Islam 827 62.4 404 through influential models and examples. Tolerance with others. 796 60.1 441 The ability to understand and discuss. 800 60.4 427 Apologies if I misunderstood. 797 60.2 430 Respecting diversity and difference in light 814 61.4 404 of the culture of my society. Reconciling my personal interest with the 780 58.9 455 interest of others. Adoption of many positive ideas through 789 59.5 434 scholars of religion and thought. Respect my freedom of opinion and that of 793 59.8 422 others. Selecting what is consistent with the culture 761 57.4 452 of my society from other cultures. Think about what is best for the majority. 739 55.8 482 Acceptance of commitment to societal 744 56.2 453 regulations. Commitment to the etiquette of 769 58.0 400 conversation and dialogue. Adopting the ideas of others in the light of 672 50.7 537 the Islamic law(Shariah) reference. I deal with other people's opinions without 699 52.8 476 prejudice. Stay away from ideas that are characterized 710 53.6 449 by extremism and fanaticism. Moderation in attitudes and behaviors. 628 47.4 575 The ability to accept criticism. 633 47.8 560 Be careful in judging others. 657 49.6 516 Avoiding ethnic and religious conflicts. 702 53.0 386 Selection of incoming intellectual currents. 636 48.0 501 Compromise for the good of others and 552 41.7 550 society. Stay away from ideas that are characterized 544 41.1 520 by moral decay. The average of all phrases

Arithmetic Average

29.6

3.6

2.63

0.553

31.4

4.2

2.60

0.570

30.3

6.2

2.57

0.607

30.5

7.1

2.55

0.624

33.3 32.2 32.5

88 98 98

6.6 7.4 7.4

2.53 2.53 2.53

0.618 0.630 0.630

30.5

107

8.1

2.53

0.641

34.3

6.8

2.52

0.621

32.8

102

7.7

2.52

0.636

31.8

110

8.3

2.52

0.645

34.1

112

8.5

2.49

0.648

36.4

104

7.8

2.48

0.638

34.2

128

9.7

2.46

0.665

30.2

156

11.8

2.46

0.696

40.6

116

8.8

2.42

0.648

35.9

150

11.3

2.41

0.685

33.9

166

12.5

2.41

0.702

43.4 42.3 38.9 29.1 37.8

122 132 152 237 188

9.2 10.0 11.5 17.9 14.2

2.38 2.38 2.38 2.35 2.34

0.648 0.659 0.682 0.765 0.713

41.5

223

16.8

2.25

0.724

39.2

261

19.7

2.21

0.750

2.54

0.655

From Table 3, among the most important variables related to the value of moderation and centrism are adopting positive ideas that are applicable on the ground with an arithmetic average of 2.63, seeking to benefit from the cultural diversity of others with an arithmetic average of 2.60, enhancing the participation of all groups of society in various issues with an arithmetic average of 2.60, enhancing the participation of all segments of society in various issues with an arithmetic average of 2.57, acquiring the values of tolerant Islam through influential models and examples

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with an arithmetic average of 2.55, respect for freedom of opinion and the other opinion, with an arithmetic average of 2.52. In light of these results, it can be noticed that the realistic understanding of the concept of moderation is not restricted to its meaning, but rather casts its shadows on the social and cultural aspects of daily life at all levels. Among which, Al-Fa’ouri (2008) indicated the belief in civilizational, cultural and social pluralism, in addition to focusing on the value system in our relations with the other, which is based on the unity of human origin and the principle of divine honor for man.

AbdulNabi (2014) indicated the role of modern means of communication in

promoting a culture of moderation and centrism. In addition, other variables that would be referred to include dealing with the opinions of others without fanaticism, and staying away from ideas that are characterized by extremism and fanaticism, with an arithmetic average of 2.41 bearing in mind the fact that the campaigns to promote the ideas and values of extremist organizations and groups take the social networks as their stage. Issa (2016) emphasized the importance of separating the concept of moderation from sectarian, intellectual, and philosophical currents, emphasizing that it is a way of life and a behavioral basis and that it is not a recently innovated concept, but rather a solid principle, and one of the logical constants and historical evidence in the human heritage and the heavenly religions.

6 Conclusion In the context of the reality of dealing with social media and some of the positive and negative dimensions of that reality and the extent of its reflection and impact on the values of moderation and centrism in the system of life in the Saudi society - according to the studied sample - it was generally found that there is a positive impact of social media that enhances the variables related to the values of moderation and centrism, including positive ideas that are applicable on the ground, seeking to benefit from the cultural diversity of others, enhancing the participation of all segments of society in various issues, acquiring the values of tolerance with others, respecting diversity and difference, reconciling personal interest and the interest of others, respecting personal freedom of opinion and that of others, in addition to dealing with the opinions of others without fanaticism and away from ideas that are characterized by extremism and fanaticism. In light of these results, it may be recommended in this context to working on designing practical educational programs for young people on how to deal with social media in order to enhance cognitive values (optimal use of communication means - discussion of ideas and opinions about community development - benefit in the scientific and academic scope - positive investment in leisure time), behavioral ethical values (values of honesty and fairness in dealing with the informational content of the means of communication - positivity and avoiding isolation to escape to the virtual community - belief in the value of dialogue and accepting criticism of the other), the skill values (the skill of effective communication - the skill of organized thinking in dealing with societal issues - the skill of dialogue with others - the skill of solving the problem in light of the various and diverse experiences of others).

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7 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8 References Abdel-Aal, S. (1986). Values and ambition in the light of the class situation: a theoretical and field study. Ain Shams University, 34p. AbdelNabi, M. (2014). Modern means of communication and their role in promoting a culture of moderation. working paper, Global Forum for Moderation. http://www.wasatyea.net Abdullah, A.-K. (1999). Globalization, its roots and branches and how to deal with it. World of Thought, 28(2), Cairo. Al-Sha’er, A. R. (1996). The educational dimension in children's television programs. The first scientific conference, Kindergarten College, Cairo, 18-19 September. 105-120. Al-Abawi, Z. M. (2007). Change and Development Management. 2nd Ed., Amman: Dar Kunouz Al-Maarifa for Publishing and Distribution. Al-Khulaifi, M. S. (2002). The Impact of the Internet on Society: A Field Study. Aalam Al-Kutub, 22(5&6), 469502. Al-Mulla, H. A. (2021). Illicit use of social media and its relationship to the value system of Emirati youth. Journal of Middle East Research, Ain Shams University. Al-Owaithi, E. F. (2004). The Impact of Internet Use on Family Relationships among Saudi Family Members in Jeddah Governorate. An unpublished master's thesis, Home Economics, King Abdulaziz University. Al-Saidi, O. I. (2020). Social Responsibility for Impersonation in Social Media. Master's Thesis, Naif University for Security Sciences, Riyadh. Al-Sha’ya, A. O. (2001). Scientific Thinking and Positive Awareness between the Media and Education Curricula in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Literary Club Publications in Madinah. Al-Shehri, H. S. (2012). The impact of the use of electronic communication networks on social relations. Faculty of Arts, King Abdulaziz University. Al-Sheikh, N. I. (2007). Attitudes of Saudi youth towards the impact of the culture of globalization on local values, an applied study of a sample of male and female Saudi university students. An unpublished master’s thesis, College of Arts, King Saud University. Al-Shweiki, A. Z. (2003). Some behavioral problems associated with the use of the Internet among Saudi youth. The 4th Conference of Gulf Youth, the Amiri Diwan, Kuwait. Athamna, N. (2017). The Impact of Social Networks on the Social Values of Undergraduate Students. An unpublished MA thesis, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Mohamed Boudiaf University. Bilal, A. H. M. (2008). Moderation is one of the most prominent characteristics of this nation. http://www.rowadaltamayoz.net/islam/play.php?catsmktba= Emad, A.-G. (2012). Moderation, a unified approach to the nation. The First International Conference on Legal Moderation and centrism, Hadhramout School as a Model, Hadhramout City, Yemen. Fa’ouri, M. (2008). Moderation: Rooting and Application. The First International Conference on Moderation, Tripoli, Lebanon. Faraj, M. S. (1980). The Social Structure and Personality. Alexandria Arab Book Press. Fouda, M. S. (2021). The Role of Electronic Newspapers in Spreading the Culture of Moderation. Journal of Media Research, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, 3(1), 57.

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Iordachescu, D. D., Ramanauskas, V. (2013). Exploring the Usage of Social Networking Websites: Perceptions and Public Opinions of Romanian University Students. Informatics Economic, 17(4). Ka’wash, R. and Gharza, R. B. (2018). The social network Facebook and the moral values of Algerian youth. AlHikma Journal for Media and Communication Studies. Kemp, S. (2021). Digital 2021: Global Overview Report. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2021-globaloverview-report Mesbah, A. H. (2008). How can we restore the value system to our society?. Center for Future Studies, Center for Support and Decision-Making of the Council of Ministers, Arab Republic of Egypt. Niemz, K., Griffiths, M., & Banyard, P. (2005). Prevalence of pathological Internet use among university students and correlations with self-esteem, the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), and disinhibition. Cyberpsychology & Behavior, 8(6), 562-570. SA-Gov-Stat. (2021). Saudi Social Network Statistics. General Authority for Statistics, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. https://www.stats.gov.sa/ar/news/365 Samir, B. (2008). The Impact of Virtual Citizenship in the Light of Social Networks on Arab Identity. Working Paper, Kasdi Merbah University, Ouargla, Algeria. Sari, H. K. (2005). The Impact of Internet Communication on Social Relations. University Journal Damascus, 24(1). Shaker, F. S. (2021). Hate Speech and Racism in Social Media. Mohamed Boudiaf University, M'sila, Algeria. Vansoon, M. (2010). Facebook and the invasion of technological communities. New York. Professor Dr.Mushabab bin Gharamah Al Asmari is a Professor of Industrial and Organizational Sociology. His research encompasses Youth Problems, the Labor Market and Sustainable Development, in addition to Criminal Sociology and Related Behavioral and Security Aspects.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

A Mini-Review of Flying Ad Hoc Networks Mobility Model for Disaster Areas Intan Nabina Azmi1, Yusnani Mohd Yussoff1*, Murizah Kassim1, Nooritawati Md Tahir1,2 School of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, MALAYSIA. Institute for Big Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence (IBDAAI), Universiti Teknologi MARA, MALAYSIA. *Corresponding Author (Email: yusna233@uitm.edu.my). 1 2

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10B Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 08 April 2021 Received in revised form 29 June 2021 Accepted 12 July 2021 Available online 19 July 2021

Keywords:

This paper presents a mini-review of Flying Ad Hoc Networks' (FANETs) mobility model. FANETs are groups of small UAVs connected in an ad hoc manner to achieve specific goals. Drones are becoming one of the reliable and trusted technologies in military, delivery, and surveying tasks. Drones are also beneficial in difficult-to-access areas, especially during disasters. Considering the large scales of the disaster areas that lack network coverage and limitations of ad hoc networks, an effective mobility model is needed to scan the area and transmit data to the base station effectively. Therefore, this study investigates related works on the mobility model of drones, the network technology used, and the performance of the FANETs in terms of throughput. The main objective is to identify the most efficient mobility model for search and rescue. Approximately 90% of the research deploys many drones with different types of mobility with highcovered areas. Moreover, the 5th generation mobile technology has performed high throughput compared to the 802.11 protocols based on the review. FANETs are also found to be stable regardless of the number of drones usage. The outcome from this review will guide the following research area, specifically efficient drone mobility models in search and rescue.

Ad hoc network; Disaster relief; Drone flying pattern; Mobility model; FANET; Communication network; Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV); Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) ; WSN; Disaster response; Emergency drone; Search and rescue (SAR); MANET; Disaster relief Disciplinary: Drone Applications, Disaster & Sustainability Management, technology; RWPM, RWM, MGM; SDPC; Communication Systems and Networks. SLMM; PPRZ. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Azmi, I.N., Yussoff, Y. M., Kassim, M., and Tahir, N. M. (2021). A Mini-Review of Flying Ad Hoc Networks Mobility Model for Disaster Areas. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10B, 1-12. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.191

1 Introduction Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones are technology designed to monitor environments that are difficult to reach due to their challenging conditions and riskiness. Recently, drones are widely used in many search and rescue (SAR) in remote and disaster areas (Chowdhury

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et al., 2017; Shrit et al., 2017; Almeida et al., 2019; Dering et al., 2019; Jahir et al., 2019). Among the limitations of drones are battery life, central processing unit (CPU), memory, poor communication environment, and flight path to cover a large area within an endurance period. Locating the victims rapidly in disaster areas is the biggest challenge for rescue teams. Wireless multi-hop of end devices was proven to function during a post-disaster event, for instance, the Great East Japan Earthquake in Higashi-Matsushima City. Drone technology has also led to a more practical search in significant areas and accelerated searches. Thus, wireless connectivity and other factors, such as flying hours, continue to be explored as essential research scope for research related to drones (Iqbal, 2018; Alani et al., 2019; Avezum et al., 2019). Additionally, the primary problems in dronerelated applications are out-of-range situations due to the extensive disaster area coverage and low-quality signals.

Therefore, Wireless Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs) are the potential

solution to enhance wireless connectivity. Another interesting aspect of FANETs is their ability to react to any malfunction during actual implementation. This is vital since it can lead to failure in the response system during stressful environments like the disaster area. Further, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were introduced as a fault injection to validate any failure systems known as AVR-INJECT. The AVR-INJECT is used for injecting codes into the AVR microcontrollers, which are commonly used in WSN nodes specifically at three locations, namely the data memory, the code memory, and the internal processor registers via SoftWare Implemented Fault Injection (SWIFI) technique. AVR-INJECT was applied in 800 experiments, with 726 fault injections done in three hours, to ensure that the proposed method was effective in WSNs (Cinque et al., 2009). Conversely, the Wireless Ad Hoc Network is a network between two end devices in ensuring wireless communication without reliance on the router or base station. Further, Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) (Alam, 2017) can be divided into two sub-classes, namely Vehicle Ad-hoc Network (VANET) (Báguena et al., 2013) and Flying (FANET) (Mahmud and CHO, 2019). MANET can be established instantly between end devices with Wi-Fi connections. A chaotic situation, however, often occurs without power, making it impossible to communicate with emergency services. A 4G and Long Range Radio (LoRa) technology were used in the ad hoc networks to assist the rescue team in obtaining a good quality video stream to provide accurate analysis and a precise action plan before the mission (Bertoldo et al., 2018). Disrupted power supplies and damaged communication infrastructure are also foremost challenges in disaster management. In 2012, the Department of Irrigation and Drainage utilized a short message service (SMS) to alert residents to floods. Most rural mobile phone users utilized this method (Akanmu and Rabi’u, 2012). Communication and network technologies, such as long-term evolution (LTE/4G) (Qazi et al., 2015a), fifth-generation (5G) (Sung et al., 2019), ad hoc (Qazi et al., 2015), and LoRa (Chen et al., 2018; Rahmadhani et al., 2019; Hoang et al., 2020) are available to consider for drone communications. Additionally, mobility models for surveillance should be examined. A systematic path for drones could avoid flying at similar spots and collisions, thus improving communication (Nawaz et

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al., 2019). The five categories of flying patterns are random-based, time-based, path-based, groupbased, and topology-based (Oubbati et al., 2019). Hence, this study aims to identify the most optimum wireless communication technology for the ad hoc network and flying pattern covering large areas.

2 Drone Implementations 2.1 Drone Deployment at Disaster Area Whether the disaster is natural or man-made, disaster management agencies should consider high-end technology, such as drones, to reduce their harmful effects. In 2020 only, the world has experienced several disasters such as Beirut Explosion (Ben and Maria, 2020), California Wildfires (Boynton, 2020), and the Philippine Volcano eruption (Martin, 2020). Drones have been widely used to view the affected areas. Nonetheless, the drone still faces several challenges and needs to improve.

2.2 Drone Applications Drones are intelligent inventions that could ease manpower's daily tasks. It can deploy and monitor industrial areas (Potter et al., 2019), farms (Peter et al., 2020; Ammar and Koubaa, 2020), and platforms for human communication (Tropea and Fazio, 2019). Drones are designed with several embedded devices, such as transceivers, flight controllers, power circuits, global positioning systems, and sensors, which make them powerful. Various sizes, types, and prices are available. Usually, the mini version was used for search and rescue mission study (Korneev et al., 2018; Leonov and Litvinov, 2018; Leonov and Ryabchevsky, 2018; Litvinov et al., 2018). Alternatively, the higher performance was used for professional tasks such as forensic purposes (Yousef et al., 2020), post-disaster volcanic eruption mapping (Rokhmana and Andaru, 2016), searching for flood survivors (Ravichandran et al., 2019), and flood surveillance (Sumalan et al., 2016).

2.3 Network for Drone in Disaster Areas A real-time survey will be more efficient for rescue teams to locate hazards and victims, along with Wi-Fi-connected controllers are best for streaming live videos. Among the IEEE 802.11 models, 802.11n offers the most extended transmission range of 250m and supports a 600Mbps data rate (Abdelrahman et al., 2015). The use of appropriate flight patterns can optimize battery usage as drone batteries are limited (Yuansen et al., 2018).

3 Mobility Model for Drones This section discusses the drone mobility model and network performance, focusing on the technical specification and the coverage of drones for victim identification in disaster areas. The research gaps were identified and further explored. There are four different kinds of Random-based mobility models, including Random Walk Mobility (RWM), Random Waypoint Mobility (RWPM), and Manhattan Grid Mobility (MGM). RWM allows the drones to move at a constant time with varying distances, speeds, and directions. An

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RWPM is similar to an RWM but requires waiting before the drones change directions. Finally, MGM is a mobility model based on the road grid topology of urban cities. Sharma and Kim (2019) designed a random 3D model based on an RWPM and uniform model. Two drones were used to achieve the highest coverage area, 78.75% in 0.0016km² 2D area. Next, to ensure good network connectivity and efficient energy consumption, (Leonov et al., 2018) developed an autonomous drone distribution model that allows the drones to communicate with each other for the area being surveyed. The study applied three different models, namely random, topology, and forces. For random based, five to thirty drones were used in a 16km² which covered 1.27% of the area. This study enhanced MGM by introducing a new method of measuring mobile node speed. AODV, DSDV, and DSR were used to validate the performance of this technique (Kour and Ubhi, 2019). Flying around a 19.8km² area, this model can cover 56.3% of the area. In contrast, an RWPM model was used to investigate the reachability using AODV and OLSR routing protocols in FANET by deploying ten to a hundred drones. Throughout 4.32km² areas, seven drones achieved 28.63% coverage (Leonov et al., 2018). Simulations in 2D and 3D produced similar results as reported in (Sharma and Kim, 2019) and (Lin et al., 2019). Comparing the 3D and 2D models, the 3D model performed better. The smooth random walk model combined several models, including paparazzi (path-based), particle swarm (group-based), and smooth turn (time-based). The study found that twenty to hundred and forty drones could cover 52.8% of the four km² areas. Furthermore, the three models were analyzed related to the performance of mobile ad hoc tactile networks with two different types of network protocols (Arshad et al., 2019). The models investigated were RWM, Reference Point Group Mobility (RPGM), and MGM. The coverage achieved with eight, nine, and twelves drones was 62.8%, 43.6%, and 26.0%, respectively. There are also four types of path-based mobility models: semi-random circular movement (SRCM), paparazzi (PPRZ), and flight plan (FP). SRCM is a model where the drones fly around fixed points in an area with variously sized circles. PPRZ uses a similar concept with SRCM, though it flies differently and generally applies in actual implementation. The topology is also timedependent, the paths being marked before launch. The algorithms developed to determine whether small drone deployment can provide a secure and dependable communication system during a disaster were explored (Ali et al., 2019). Furthermore, there were two allocation methods for drones utilizing sixteen drones and four per row and column. The result showed that the covered area was 73.6% and 70.4% for the four km² areas. Note that RPGM is a group-based model where the drones move together with a leader drone as a reference. Two models were used (Arshad et al., 2019), involving an RPGM of nine mobile nodes that covers 43.6% of one km² area. The RWM proved to have the highest covered area while using the fewest mobile nodes compared to the RPGM and the MGM models. Conversely, the Self-Deployable Point Coverage (SDPC) is one of the topology-based models. An SDPC model was designed to achieve maximum coverage of each drone and ground connection;

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thus, the drones will move together at a similar distance or stay at a specific point. Self-deployable drones capable of providing flexible communication services to victims during the post-disaster period have been explored (Sanchez-Garcia et al., 2015). Several different Jaccard threshold values of 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8 were used in the model. Results showed that the drones' position has the most excellent coverage with 80.93% based on one km² area at 0.8 thresholds. Further, there were another three models (Messous et al., 2016), and the second model was known as the alpha-based model. This model allowed the drones to preserve a substantial distance between them and remain connected. Overall, the deployment of drones to cover a 16km² area with a coverage area of 28.91% were between five to thirty drones. Again, the covered area percentage was the smallest, but the dimension area is the second largest with the highest number of drones. Next, the development of a drone's network for effectively communicating with users in a particular coverage area was investigated (Tropea and Fazio, 2019). Nine drones flew squarely with three in each row and column using the static mobility model. The coverage area of this formation is 98.3% from 0.73km² with 100 maximum mobile users. Due to the high number of drones needed, this method is not suitable for SAR. A forces-based mobility model uses repulsion and attraction to move the drone around the area. According to Messous et al. (2016), the third model used similar numbers and dimensions of drones, with five to thirty drones deployed in 16km² and achieved 22.8% of the covered area. Compared to forces-based and random models, the alpha model has contributed to the most covered area. Table 1 tabulated previous research related to the drone mobility model, including the broadest coverage area based on each mobility model. Table 1: List of mobility models with the number of drones and dimensions. Network Ref

Mobility Model

802.11p Lin et al. (2019)

RWM RWM RPGM MGM RWPMM Random Forced Alpha-based Jaccard W = 0.2 Jaccard W = 0.5 Jaccard W = 0.8 EMGM

802.11b Arshad et al. (2019) 802.11g Leonov et al. (2018) Messous et al. (2016)

Sanchez-Garcia et al. (2015) 802.11

Kour & Ubhi (2019) Tropea and Fazio Static (2019) Sharma and Kim RWPMM & Uniform (2019) Matching algorithm-based UE Ali et al. (2019) Minimal distance allocation

Number of Drones 20-140 8 9 12 10-100 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 5 5 5 10, 50, 100

Proposed Area (km²) 4 1 1 1 4.32 16 16 16 1 1 1 19.8

Covered Area (km²) 2.1134 0.6277 0.4359 0.2601 1.2368 0.2031 3.6495 4.625 0.4295 0.6067 0.8093 11.1524

Covered Area (%) 52.84 62.77 43.59 26.01 28.63 1.27 22.81 28.91 42.95 60.67 80.93 56.33

0.73

0.7166

98.26

1.6

1.262

78.75

16 16

4 4

2.9459 2.8155

73.65 70.39

Previous research has developed a mobility model for drones that suggested using more drones and contributed to a higher cost of drone maintenance. Few studies have analyzed the

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packet delivery ratio (PDR) and drones' throughput, which should be further investigated. The analysis of PDR and throughput using a minimal number of drones is crucial in any disaster area. Additionally, identifying the optimal drone flight pattern can help reduce energy consumption. These are the future research areas to be explored.

4 Related Case Evaluation This section elaborates on the communication performance based on throughput, mobility model, communication technology, and the number of drones. Throughput evaluation is essential for a small network or a limited number of network points since it can analyze the total number of successfully delivered data packets over the full time taken for the data packet to travel as 𝑇𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟ℎ𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 =

∑ 𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅

𝑇𝑇𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 − 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇

(1),

where: ∑ 𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = total number of packets transmitted from drone to the base station, 𝑇𝑇𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅

= time when the packets arrive at the base station,

𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 = the time when the drone transmits.

Table 2 shows that 12321 km² is the largest simulation area investigated using single drone deployments, and the Random Waypoint Model (RWPM) gained the highest throughput (Xia et al., 2019). Two experiments using different size antennas and the Long-Term Evolution (LTE) network achieved 1Gbps and 100Mbps throughput. Most of the models applied were between 1km². For 25km² the models utilized were random-based, specifically RWPM, RWM, MGM, while for pathbased the models used were Semi-Circular Random Movement (SCRM), Pursue (PRS) Mobility Model, and Spiral Line Mobility Model (SLMM), and PPRZ, along with group-based. Even with the most drone deployments, the highest throughput is occasional. Next, sixty drones were used, contributing to 0.2 and 0.3Mbps (Zhou et al., 2004) compared to findings from (Tang et al., 2019) which gained the highest throughput of 40Mbps using twenty drones. In contrast, path-based flight patterns attained a higher throughput than random patterns, with path-based obtaining 9 to 9.2Mbps versus random-based at 5.1-8.6Mbps (Alkhatieb et al., 2020). Conversely, simulation and numerical analysis were performed for the area below 25km², which yielded 0.514Gbps from three drones (Park et al., 2019). This work is ranked among the highest throughput with fewer drone use. However, the simulation area is considered negligible because of only 0.0625km² area. Despite a similar number of drones, network, and model classes, the throughput gain in (He et al., 2020) was better than in (Thounhom and Amornkul, 2016). Using ten drones for the group mobility model led to a higher throughput rate for the group with ten drones than for the two groups using five drones each (Misra and Agarwal, 2012). Also, the study showed that the second largest experiment area has the lowest throughput (Tan et al., 2020). The RWP model with 40 drones resulted in greater throughput than similar models, but with fewer drones. Meanwhile, another study applied RWM with more drones in a smaller area size (Fan et al., 2018) compared with (Tan et al., 2020), resulting in a gain of 0.00148Mbps as reported in Tan et al. (2020).

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Table 2: Comparison of previous work based on throughput, mobility model, communication technology, and the number of drones utilized. Area Size (km²)

Ref

Xia et al. (2019)

12321

Number of Drones 1

Network Type

Mobility model

5G with antenna = 16 by 4 5G with antenna = 64 by 16

RWPM

LTE 802.11b

RWPM

802.11p

RWM RWPM VTM

100 0.00160 0.00350 0.00148 0.3 0.2

4 cloudlets 16 UAVs

Distance-based

RWPM MGM SCRM PRS

8.61425 5.14299 9.05163 9.18919

2.25

1 group (10nodes) 2 group (5nodes)

Tan et al. (2020)

Fan et al. (2018)

20 40 50

Zhou et al. (2004)

6.16

Tang et al. (2019)

Alkhatieb et al. (2020)

Misra and Agarwal (2012) He et al. (2020) Thounhom and Amornkul (2016)

Erim and Wright (2017)

Throughput (Mbps) 1,000 1,000

802.11

0.25 3 0.0625

Koushik et al. (2019)

0.01

Park et al. (2018)

0.0004

Qazi et al. (2015b) Kuschnig and Bettstetter (2013)

N/A

20 15 30

N/A

BFBIGM 0.012

Park et al. (2019)

0.014

5G 4 802.11

SLMM

0.43

Paparazzi

0.39

MGM RWPM RPGM GMMM An algorithm based on K-mean DQN (spiral shape)

1.875 1.385 0.71 0.69 514 0.5

LTE

GMMM

0.8 0.7 0.6

802.11a

Time-based

Static

Table 2 shows four studies that deployed 3-20 drones in an area with less than 1km2 area. Erim and Wright (2017) evaluated four mobility models with three drones and four scenarios were used for the same network. The MGM and RWPM models achieved throughputs of 1.4-1.9Mbps compared to the RPGM and Gauss Markov Model Mobility (GMMM) models with 0.7Mbps each. Then, a static model was applied using fifteen and twenty drones in a 0.0004km2 area utilizing a similar network (Koushik et al., 2019). The drones gained 0.7Mbps on fifteen and 0.8Mbps on twenty. Moreover, the Deep Q-learning network was developed using a path-based model. This

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pattern obtained 0.5 Mbps throughput using four drones within 0.01km² (Koushik et al., 2019). Qazi et al. (2015b) evaluated the GMMM in a real scenario with thirty drones that gained 0.6Mbps after using the same network (Xia et al., 2019). The throughput by Qazi et al. (2015b) was lower than Xia et al. (2019) due to real-life obstacles that interrupted the signals, but the network was suitable for real-life scenarios. Kuschnig and Bettstetter (2013) examined real-world scenarios by extending the antenna size to increase the 802.11 communication range. By using a single drone, the proposed method achieved throughput as targeted for 300m with 12Mbps. The results obtained in Tables 1 and 2 are analyzed based on the drones' weight, wind, and flight altitude. A bigger drone attached to a bigger battery can fly longer (Biczyski et al., 2020). A drone flight path will be affected in the presence of wind (Wang et al., 2019). Additionally, based on a numerical study conducted, higher drone altitude will provide a more comprehensive view but, the drone will only capture low-quality RGB images (Seifert et al., 2019). Thus, these aspects should be considered for optimal operation.

5 Conclusion This study conducted a mini-review on the mobility model of flying ad hoc networks for SAR activity in the disaster area. Most studies have used small coverage simulation areas with more than ten drones, while for the 25km² areas, more than twenty drones were used. Utilizing more drones is not an option in an actual disaster situation, leading to high costs and reduced drone stability. The wind produced by the group of drones may cause the drones to consume more energy during flying. It was found that the Jaccard model managed to cover more than 50% of the one km² area using only five drones. Also, the 5G network showed good performance under conditions of large disaster areas. Hence, these will be the criteria and aspects to be considered for the stage of research.

6 Availability of Data And Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7 Acknowledgement This research is funded by the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) Malaysia under the Trans-disciplinary Research Grant Scheme (TRGS) No: 600-IRMI/TRGS 5/3 (001/2019)-1, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia.

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Communication and Information Systems. Association for Computing Machinery, New York, USA, 106111. Tropea, M. and Fazio, P. (2019). A Simulator for Creating Drones Networks and Providing Users Connectivity. In 2019 IEEE/ACM 23rd International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real Time Applications, IEEE. Wang, B. H. et al. (2019). An overview of various kinds of wind effects on unmanned aerial vehicle. Measurement and Control, 52(7-8), 731-739. Xia, W. et al. (2019). Millimeter Wave Remote UAV Control and Communications for Public Safety Scenarios. In 2019 16th Annual IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Communication, and Networking. IEEE. Yousef, M., Iqbal, F. and Hussain, M. (2020). Drone Forensics: A Detailed Analysis of Emerging DJI Models. In 2020 11th International Conference on Information and Communication Systems, Drone. IEEE, 66-71. Yuansen, D. U. et al. (2018). State Estimation of Autonomous Rotorcraft MAVs under Indoor Environments. In 2018 Chinese Control And Decision Conference, Shenyang, China: IEEE, 4420-4424 Zhou, B. et al. (2004). Group and Swarm Mobility Models for Ad Hoc Network Scenarios using Virtual Tracks. In IEEE MILCOM 2004. Military Communications Conference, IEEE, 1-6. Intan Nabina Azmi received a Diploma and a B. Eng. (Hons) in Electrical Engineering (Electronics) from Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Malaysia. She pursues her Master of Science at the College of Engineering, UiTM, Shah Alam, Malaysia. Her research interests are Information Delivery to Wireless Networks, Mobile Drone Models, and Drone Applications in Disaster Areas.

Dr.Yusnani Mohd Yussoff is an Associate Professor at the College of Engineering, UiTM, Shah Alam Malaysia. Her research area focusses on Wireless Sensor Network, Trusted Authentication, Embedded Security and Internet of Thing. She is Head of Information, Security and Trusted Infrastructure Laboratory or InSTIL Research Group (RG). She is a member of IEEE, IAENG and Board of Engineer Malaysia.

Dr.Murizah Kassim is an Associate Professor at the College of Engineering, UiTM, Shah Alam, Selangor. She received her PhD in Engineering from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM). Her research areas are Computer Network, IoT, Web and Mobile Development Applications. She is also Head of Enabling Internet of Things Technologies (ElIoTT) RG UiTM and a member of MBOT, IEEE, IET, IAENG and IACSIT.

Dr.Nooritawati Md Tahir is a Lecturer at the College of Engineering, UiTM, Shah Alam, Malaysia. Her research interest is in the field of Image Processing, Pattern Recognition and Computational Intelligence. She is also a Chartered Engineer (CEng) registered with the Engineering Council UK and Senior Member of IEEE.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Climate Change’s Impact on Pakistani Agriculture and Food Sector: Media Reporting and Its Analysis Yang Hui1, Muhammad Mudassar Riaz1, Muhammad Naeem Javed2, Abdul Rehman Madni3, Cheng Yuru1* 1

College of journalism and communication, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, CHINA. Department of Mass Communication, Lahore Leads University, PAKISTAN. 3 Department of Communication and Media Studies, University of Sargodha, PAKISTAN. *Corresponding Author (Email: 916589456 @ qq.com). 2

Paper ID: 12A10C

Abstract

Volume 12 Issue 10

Climate change is possibly the greatest challenge humankind has ever been faced. It has manifested in calamities of unpredictable frequency Received 19 March 2021 Received in revised form 04 and intensity in different parts of the world. Pakistan is facing a multitude of July 2021 impacts ensuing from the climate change phenomenon. This study provides Accepted 14 July 2021 a brief overview of Pakistani media reporting about climate change’s impact Available online 21 July on Pakistani agriculture and food sector and provides background 2021 information about agriculture and food security in Pakistan. The study was Keywords: based on qualitative and quantitative content analysis. In this study Climate crisis; editorials & articles of two newspapers (The Nation and The News) were Newspaper coverage; examined from 2015-2019. The study result showed that The Nation Food Security; newspaper gave more editorials & articles coverage rather than The News Mitigation strategies; newspaper on research issues. The finding depicts that Pakistani Editorial coverage; management should adopt modern techniques of agriculture to minimize the Article coverage; effect of climate change on the food sector. Moreover, this study describes Positive stance; Negative stance; Neutral the prospects for the agriculture and food sector to adopt mitigation and stance; Agriculture recommend strategies to tackle the climate change that would arise. technologies.

Cite This Article: Hui, Y., Riaz, M. M., Javed, M. N., Madni, A. R., Yuru, C. (2021). Climate Change’s Impact on Pakistani Agriculture and Food Sector: Media Reporting and Its Analysis. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10C, 1-11. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.192

1 Introduction Climate change is growing intimidation for our globe. Climate changes have caused many consequences on the agriculture sector and rural poor people in Pakistan. Climate changes have large impacts like an increase in variation in winter rainfall and monsoon patterns. Temperature

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rise has caused a rise in Sea level and has caused overflows of rivers. Similarly, this phenomenon is deteriorating atmospheres, depression of Himalaya’s glaciers, and augmented sternness of extreme weather events like cyclones, floods, and droughts (Javed & Khan, 2019). Production is being affected by several variables comprising rainfall pattern, temperature hike, water accessibility, variations in sowing and harvesting dates, and lands sustainability (Kakade, et al., 2013). The durations of Pakistani cropping dates have also clearly condensed in South Punjab and Baluchistan with the onward fluctuation in sowing and harvest time. It indicates that earnings from traditional ways are certainly not more enough to support many families. Climate changes are not about reducing gas emissions but also about human dignity and social reliability. It’s about how we live and sustain ourselves; how we ensure that the poorest and vulnerable amongst us are protected and how we patent this responsibility that is upon us (Ghani, 2013). The consequences of climate changes are alarming; not only will be there more deadly floods, hurricanes, superstorms, drought, heat weaves but also there will be declining food stock, extreme water scarcity, agricultural decline, and loss of human life. It is strong evidence, flora and faunas take place every year in Pakistan (World Bank, 2018). Today, climate changes have come to be one of the major challenges for Pakistan an agrarian base country. Pakistan falls among the top 8th states of the world that were highly at risk of environmental variation (Choudhry, 2016). Pakistani glaciers are expected to melt by 2035 which will have a terrible impact on freshwater flow. It is basically an agrarian-based economy; this sector contributes the 21% GDP of Pakistan, and it is extremely vulnerable due to climate changes. The agricultural sector is the backbone of Pakistan and has a maximum proportion of 4/5th irrigated cropland in the South Asian regions. Apart from its hazard to flood and famine, the state is also equally susceptible to internal and outdoor air pollution (Shakoor et al., 2011). According to Pakistani Agro climatic classification, its 2/3rd parts of the land is semi-arid to arid regions which are commonly categorized by the low inconsistent rainfall. In a few decades, circumstance has deteriorated; global warming phenomena become more obvious. Crop yieldings are projected to decline as an outcome that affects food production and livelihood (Naseer, 2013). Water scarceness and frequently flooded every year become a normal routine in Pakistan (Farouqi, et al., 2005). In Pakistan, media plays a vibrant role in enlightening the public and management to protect and save natural resources of climatic disorder in the interest of future generations. Ecological sustainability on our earth would be achieved through caring for the atmosphere in a sensible consumption of natural resources. Similarly, rich, and poor countries have an equal stake in this stewardship of the globe. The real stability of our globe rests on the sustainability of earth environments. Therefore, the media’s role is very critical in creating climate awareness and conveying a progressive behavior change in common masses in enlightening the environmental variations (Yadav & Rani, 2011). This study has a purpose to identify the media’s role as a trendsetter, evaluate its coverages techniques, and check its reporting frequency in Pakistani media. These media reports help the public to know the climate change’s effect on the agriculture

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and food sector in Pakistan and its preventive actions. So, this research study will be a major milestone in this way.

2 Climate Change Effects on Pakistan Today, Pakistan has been facing many challenges; and climate change is one of them. In a state that is climatic prone and keeps dynamic media; it’s vigorous to find out the media’s role on climate change and its impacts on the agriculture & food sector in Pakistan. It’s relevant to discuss through a literature review that lots of studies have been done on climate change in the many developed countries in the world. But very limited scholarly research covers the discourse analysis in the developing countries in a media context. In Pakistan, only very few studies are available in the perspective of media reporting analysis on climate change’s impact on Pakistan’s agriculture and food sector. In this research study, two leading English newspapers The Nation and The News have been selected. This study tries to examine how Pakistani media sets the agenda and know about how much media coverage is given to the climate issue. In this study, the media has a purpose to guide the government in getting manageable economic development by confirming agriculture and food security.

2.1 Climate Change and Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector The agricultural sector is the largest source of income and employment for millions of Pakistani people. The country's main exports are reliant on farming both directly and indirectly (Ramay, & Saleem, M., 2012). It contributes 21% GDP, 45% labor force employment, and 60% export earnings (GOP, 2015). Pakistani agriculture is extremely affected by climate inconsistency, as temperature increases the duration of crop sowing and harvesting will be reduced. It might have the worst impact on food production and fodder yields (NCCP, 2012). Agriculture production will be provoked by growing temperature, fluctuating rainfall patterns, and extreme weather conditions (Viliami T. Fakava, 2012). Food production is being affected by a number of climate changes like, temperature slog, rainfall pattern, variations in seeding and reaping periods, water availability, water supply, and land suitability (Ziska, 2011). Agriculture performance is highly dependent upon these indicators, i.e., weather routine, wind speed and its direction, CO2, solar emission, rainwater, soil humidity, and water vapors. Plant science says that CO2 is a vital factor for the photosynthesis process and plant growth. A higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere leads to a rise in temperature and few researchers have forecasted that agricultural production will increase in upcoming years. (Rosenzweig & Hillel, 1995). Pakistan is placed in arid to semi-arid regions. The food and crop production will decrease (FAO, 2008). Pakistan’s cultivation areas have increased from almost 14.70 Mha in 1947 to 23.5 Mha in 2008. In Pakistan, two main agriculture seasons have fallen, (1) Kharif (June to October) and (2) Rabi (November to April}. Every year, from the entire available water; nearly 84% of water flows throughout the Kharif seasons, while merely 16% of water flows in Rabi time. Approximately, 81% of river drifts and monsoon rainfall rise from June to September. In Pakistan, Indus Basin tributaries distributed water to the farmer through watercourses based on Warabandi. The duration of the water supply is proportionate to the size of

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farmer lands holding (Bandaragoda, 1998). Pakistan is placed in that areas where air hotness is estimated to be higher than the average global temperature that’s why Pakistan is exceptionally liable to climate fluctuations (IPPC, 2007). The durations of Pakistani cropping dates have also clearly shortened in South Punjab and Baluchistan with the onward fluctuation in sowing time and earlier harvest. This indicates that earnings from traditional ways are certainly not more enough to support many families. Pakistan being an agricultural state severely depend upon water possessions. The climate of the rainfed area can be categorized into three sectors, i. ii. iii.

Low rainwater zone gets below than 500 mm rain per year. Medium rainfalls areas get 500 to 750 mm rainwater annually. High rainfalls zone gets more than 750 mm rains per annum (World Bank, 2018).

2.2 Climate Changes and Food Security in Pakistan FAO (2008) defines food security as "the state in which all people at all times having access to sufficient and nutritious food”. Food security in Pakistan is very intense to climatic variations. Weather conditions and climatic catastrophe have a vast effect on the agriculture sector, food accessibility, food availability, food consumption, and food constancy structures. In Pakistan, fastgrowing populations possess severe challenges for food security (Javed et al., 2020). Pakistan also faces food deficiencies due to water shortages. Approximately 47% of the inhabitants of Pakistan are facing food scarcity and malnourishment. Malnutrition is an outcome of food insecurity. Pakistan is fronting a severe calamity of malnourishment. In Pakistan, 15% of children under the age of five suffering from severe malnutrition, which is the maximum rate in South Asian regions. Likewise, 43% of children under the age of five years are constantly malnourished, it is a very critical rate. Alarmingly in Pakistan, the stunting rate is rising from 36% in 1994 to 42% in 2001 (Kirby, M. et al., 2017). It is estimated that in 2025, water shortfall will be reached at 32%, which might cause food deficiencies of 70 million tons. The latest estimate says that environmental change and siltation of core reservoirs will shrink water surface storing capacity up to 30% till 2025. The per capita water storage capacity in Pakistan is only 150 m3 and while comparatively 5000 m3 in Australia and the USA and 2200 m3 in China (Qureshi, A.S, 2011).

2.3 Land Resources Pakistan has geographically 196 million acres areas, of which 77.1 million acres are fit for farming. An aggregate of 54.5 million acres (71%) of agricultural lands are now cultivated either through irrigation or rainfall. The left behind 22.6 million acres of land (29%) area is suitable for agriculture and turns into useful if water is made available for irrigation (Economic Review, 2002). Wheat is the 1st basic food and rice is the 2nd most fundamental foodstuff in Pakistan for the entire population. The Pakistani crops yield is also low as compared to other states like Egypt, the USA, and China (Saeed, M., et al, 2002).

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3 Literature Review Javed et al. (2020) describe that environmental variation is a worldwide phenomenon. It makes an influence on agricultural sectors and water sectors. Due to systematic consequences of the environment, Pakistan is regularly facing natural calamities. The study accomplishes in this way that newspaper plays a substantial and dynamic role in forming consciousness about environment change in Pakistan.

Habib et al. (2015) in their research explored the impact of

climate change on the agricultural sector and the living life of the population in developed countries and especially rainfed regions of Pakistan called Pothwar. Survey-based and interviews were conducted with selected 60 farmers from (Chakwal and Attock). The study found that the majority of respondents 83% argued that water is the main problem in the region. Shakoor et al., (2011) analyzed the issue of climate change in Pakistan. The researcher illustrates that issue of climate change has become more challenging for agriculture in Pakistan. Change in climate change is a serious threat for the crop sector due to changes in atmospheric temperature and heavy or very low rainfall. The researchers suggested that there is a need to introduce new farming techniques and irrigation methods that would be fruitful and appropriate to improve the farming and agriculture condition in the arid region. Iqbal et al. (2009) claimed that the Pakistani economy mostly relies on the agriculture sector. The major irrigation system of Pakistan is river water that considers more powerful for agriculture production. They argued that due to change in climate change, productive resources and water and land for food production are declining rapidly. Oxfam (2009) examined the effect of climate variation in Pakistani rural communities. The study was conducted to explore catastrophe regions of Pakistan including Badin, Khuzdar, and Ranjanpur. The results showed that in Badin Area, seawater has been interrupted and causing floods and soil has become salty that has caused difficulties for the farmer to grow crops. Veil (2012) studied climatic disaster management and media persons, by exploring the relationship between media persons and disaster management. The researcher recommended that strong inter-personal communication and exchange of frequent information among media organizations and disaster management can strengthen the relationship among both parties and this cooperation could be fruitful for the public. Objectives of this study are 1. To know that how much media coverage is given to issues of climate change and its impact on the agricultural and food sector. 2. To assess how media adopted framing strategies on the climate issue in the light of gathered data.

4 Theoretical Framework This study was conducted under the Agenda Setting & framing theory. Under the notion of "Framing", the researcher intends to explore the nature of framing Pakistani media on research issues in three ways positive, negative, or neutral.

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5 Research Methodology This research study was basically qualitative and quantitative in nature. The content analysis technique was used to evaluate the content of editorials and articles. Quality of content was checked through editorials and article words and their framing analysis was either positive, negative, or neutral. For content analysis, two national English dailies (The Nation and The News) were selected. Both these national newspapers are top popular, mainstream, large circulated, claims to be objective and balance regarding their coverage. This study was based on both quantitative and qualitative nature and was hypothesized that The Nation gave more space rather than The News about the issue of climate change Impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture and Food Sector (H1) and Pakistani media framing is more positive toward government policies on the issue of climate change Impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture and Food Sector (H2).

5.1 Measurements The coding sheet was designed to measure the content of selected newspapers. The content was measured quantitatively (number and digit) as well as qualitatively (positive, negative, or neutral). The universe of the study was all editorials and articles published in selected newspapers that were related to research issues from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019. Editorials & articles are considered a unit of analysis in which words, sentences, or whole paragraphs were about research issues. The population was editorials and articles in which the words: climate changes effect on agriculture production and food security, inconsistency in the crop growth cycle, variations in seeding and harvesting dates, Food availability, Food accessibility & Food utilization, malnutrition, agriculture & Food management policies in Pakistan. The issue studied in this research is 

Climate change impact on agriculture and food sector

Measurement of the Framing/Coding Sheet

5.2

All editorials and articles slant will be measured as three categories, positive, negative, or neutral based on the Frame given to those newspapers.

Positive Stance

5.3

An editorial and articles are considered positive if the frame was found as. 

If these selective newspapers positively highlight and suggest the solution of upcoming climate changes and create awareness to the general masses.

Negative Stance

5.4

An editorial and articles are considered negative if the frame was found: 

5.5

If these selective newspapers do not suggest any solution and its framing stance toward the issue in this way, that government are not showing serious attitude and its approaches are not good enough for tackling climate changes.

Neutral Stance An editorial and article fall into the category of neutral if the frame was found as:

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•

If the editorial & article shown neither positive nor negative interplay will be coded as neutral interplay.

6 Analytical Results Table 1 and Figure 1 present numerical descriptions of both newspapers (The Nation and The News) editorials and articles. The result shows the editorials and articles publication is more focused in The Nation rather than daily The News.

Table 1: Overall total editorial & article publication of The Nation and The News on research issues during 2015-2019. News Paper The Nation The News Grand Total

Total Editorials Publication 7 4 11

Total Articles Publication 23 14 37

40 30

23 14

20 7

10 0 1 The Nation Editorials The News Editorials

Total Editorials

The Nation Articles

Total Articles

The News Articles

Figure 1: Overall total editorial & article publication of The Nation and The News on research issues during 2015-2019. Table 2: Comparison of editorial treatment of The Nation and The News on research issue during 2015-2019. News Paper

Total Editorials

The Nation The News Grand Total

7 4 11

Positive No's. % 4 57% 2 50% 6 55%

Negative No's. % 1 14% 2 50% 3 27%

Neutral No's. % 2 29% 0 0% 2 18%

According to the results, Daily the Nation published total of 7(100%) editorials while The News published 4(100%) editorials during a research period of 5 years. The result shows that Daily the Nation published 4(57%) editorials as positive whereas, The News published 2(50%) editorials as a positive stance on research issues. The above table depicts that The Nation published 1(14%) editorial while The News published 2(50%) editorials as a negative stance on the research issue. The result illustrates that The Nation published as 2(29%) editorial as neutral stance and The News did not publish any editorials as the neutral slant. The result found that both newspapers written a total of 11(100%) editorials under research issues in which 6(55%) editorials were written as a positive stance, while 3(27%) editorial slants were negative, and 2(18%) editorials written as

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neutral. The result indicates that overall editorials treatment of both newspapers on research issue of Climate change Impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture and Food Sectors positive for overcoming the issues. Table 3: Comparison of articles treatment of The Nation and The News on research issue during 2015-2019 News Paper

Total Articles

The Nation The News Total

23 14 37

Positive No's. % 14 61% 8 57% 22 59%

Negative No's. % 9 39% 6 43% 15 41%

Neutral No's. % 0 % 0 % 0 0%

According to the results, Daily the Nation published a total of 23 (100%) articles while The News published 14(100%) articles during a research period of 5 years. The result shows that Daily the Nation published 14(61%) articles as positive whereas, The News published 8(57%) articles as a positive stance on the research issue. The above table depicts that The Nation published 9(39%) articles while The News published 6(43%) articles as negative stances on the research issue. The result illustrates that The Nation and The News did not publish any articles as the neutral slant. The result found that both newspapers wrote a total of 37(100%) articles on under research issues in which 22(59%) editorials were written as a positive stance, while 15(41%) articles slant were negative.

7 Discussion 7.1 Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture Sector  

  

Agricultural crops and soil management systems must be upgraded. There is a substantial quantity of agricultural foods is wasted in Pakistan, mostly due to lack of proper infrastructure, lack of storage capacity, processing facilities, and poor transportation facilities. Thus, this should be among the main concern to deal with the growing food demand (Arslan, A., 2011). Develop new crops varieties which highly yield, resilient to warmness, drought lenient, less liable to insects and pests. Introduce new irrigation systems and new crop farming techniques (Shakoor et al, 2011). Use biotechnology to develop more carbon receptive crops.

7.2 Strategies for Improving Food Security in Pakistan 



To encounter the decline irrigation water availability, launch some short-term strategies i.e., induction of public awareness campaigns, the promulgation of highly effective irrigation system, changes in cropping pattern, identify probable surface water storage sites and dams. Long-term schemes might be comprising, regulatory framework formulation on groundwater, the building of large dams, increasing crop yields, and enhancement of drought and floods forecasting mechanism. Mass media communication can play a substantial role in assisting the public in enhancing their knowledge about the issue, its causes, and its implications. Media must deliver practical information to the public to act comprises of water-saving, changing farming techniques to advance crop yields, or learning different skills to increase their income.

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8 Conclusion This research has presented a content analysis on climate change impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture and Food Sector in two leading English newspapers (The Nation and The News) from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019. Being quantitative and qualitative content analysis based, the researchers have evaluated all editorials and articles of daily the Nation and The News. It is found that both newspapers published a total of 11 editorials and 37 articles on research issues. It was found that daily The Nation published 7(100%) editorials related to research issues, in which 4(57%) editorials were showing a positive stance, 1(14%) editorial was negative, and 2(29%) editorials were written on neutral stance. Similarly, in an 8-year total number of 4(100%) editorials are published in The News, out of these 2(50%) editorials were positive, 2(50%) editorials were written as negative stance regarding the issue. It was found that daily The Nation published 23(100%) articles regarding the issue, out of which 14(61%) articles were written as a positive approach, 9(39%) articles were negative on the research issue. Similarly, in an 8-year total number of 14(100%) articles are published in The News, out of these 8(57%) articles were positive, 6(43%) articles published as negative stance regarding the issue. The total result shows that Daily the Nation published more editorial and articles as compared to The News. Overall, the study found that the Pakistani media framing strategies in Climate change Impact on Pakistan’s Agriculture and Food Sector were very positive toward the solution. Hence, two hypotheses were developed and tested. The data strongly supported the prediction of both hypotheses. Due to environmental changes, Pakistan is facing compounded threats of low agricultural productivity, and the agricultural sector is a large source of livelihood; half of the population depends upon it. The Government would take an extraordinary toll on the betterment of agricultural sectors in Pakistan. To address these climate challenges, there is a need to formulate strategies and adaptation actions for climate risk management through federal and provincial management. Pakistan must adopt modern agriculture techniques, which have tried to minimize the impacts of environmental changes and weather inconsistency through irrigation. Use the substitution of the labour force with energy-demanding practice and plant breeding for heat and water stress torrent crops. Similarly, it is much needed to strengthen the resilience of rural peoples and support them to cope with the supplementary threats of food security. Management needs to do more and very faster, especially, need to step up efforts to switch from using fossil fuels and to clean renewable energy. Government must work and collaborate with the finance department to get money out of fossil fuels and use it for climate solutions, like restoration of forests, and to use clean technology to cut carbon emissions on a large scale. Climate change policy needs to be framed by taking into consideration agriculture, water, and food security. It should be done in consultative methods in which all the relevant stakeholders are taken on board. Through media collaborations, the government and the public must come together to act for tackling the worst impacts of climate change for building a safer future for all humankind.

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9 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

10 References Arslan, A. (2011). Climate change and agriculture. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Hindenburgufer 66 24105 Kiel, Deutschland. P-12-13. http://www.ifw-kiel.de Bandaragoda, D.J. (1998). Design and Practice of Water Allocation Rules: Lessons from Warabandi in Pakistan’s Punjab. Research Report 17, International Irrigation Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Choudhry, Q. Z. (2016). National Climate Change Policy. Pakistan’s Increasing Vulnerability to Climate Change: Policy Response. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/climate_change Economic Review. (2002). Pakistan Facing Acute Shortage of Water. A report published in Economic Review, July 1, 2002. Farooqi, B. A., Khan, A. H., & Mir, H. (2005). Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology. 2(3). FAO. (2008). Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management. Headquarters, Rome, 28-29 February 2008. Ghani, M. (2013). The coming wars. The News 14/02/2013, Pakistan. Government of Pakistan. (2015). Ministry of Planning, Development, and Reforms. Annual Plan 2014–2015. Islamabad. Iqbal, M., Goheer, A., & Khan, A. M. (2009). Climate-Change Aspersions on Food Security of Pakistan. A scientific journal of COMSATS–science vision, 15(1). Javed, M. N., Basit, A., & Hussain, T. (2020). Climate Change in the Mainstream Pakistani Press: Coverage and Framing Trends. Global Political Review, V(I), 192-204. DOI: 10.31703/gpr.2020(V-I).22 Kakade O., Hiremath, S., and Raut, N. (2013). Role of Media in Creating Awareness about Climate Change- A Case Study of Bijapur City. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 10(1), 37-43. Kirby M, Mainuddin M, Khaliq T, Cheema, M., Tasneem, K. (2017) Agricultural production, water use and food availability in Pakistan: Historical trends, and projections to 2050. Agricultural Water Management, 179, 34-46.13. Javed, M. N. & Khan, A.W. (2019). Climate Change in South Asia and it Impacts on Pakistan: Causes, Threats and Measures. Pakistan journal of Social Sciences, 39(4). Naseer, E. (2013). Pakistan’s Water Crisis. Spearhead Research Special Report. December 2013 PART I. National Climate Change Policy. (2012). Ministry of Climate Change. Government of Pakistan. Islamabad. Pakistan September 2012, www.gcisc.org.pk/National_Climate _Change_Policy_2012. Habib, N., et al (2015). Identification of Local Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Management in Districts Attock and Chakwal, Pakistan. Science, Technology and Development, 34(4), 255-259. DOI: 10.3923/std.2015.255.259 Oxfam. (2009). “Climate Change, Poverty and Environmental Crisis in the Disaster-Prone Areas of Pakistan.” https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/111982/rr-climate-change-povertyenvironmental-crisis-disaster-prone-areas-pakistan-191109-en.pdf Qureshi, A.S. (2011). Water management in the Indus basin in Pakistan: challenges and opportunities. Mountain Research and Development 31(3), 252-260. Ramay, S.A. & Saleem, M. (2012). Climate Change and National Security. Policy Paper no 39.

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Saeed M., M. Ashrif & M. Bruen. (2002). Diagnostic analysis of framers skimming well technologies in the Indus basin of Pakistan. Irrigation and Drainage Systems, 16, 139-160. Shakoor, U., et al. (2011). Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Empirical Evidence, From Arid Region. Pak. J. Agri. Sci., 48(4), 327-333; http://www.pakjas.com.pk Veil, R. S. (2012). Clearing the Air: Journalists and Emergency managers Discuss Disaster Response. Journal of Applied Communication Research, 40(3), 289-306. DOI: 10.1080/00909882.2012.679672 Viliami T. Fakava. (2012). Climate Change Impact on agriculture and food security. Regional Training Workshop on Adaptation for the Pacific Least Developed Countries. 28 September-3 October 2012, Funafuti, Tuvalu. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/leg_2012_pacific_workshop_fao_presentation pdf World

emissions Bank. (2018). CO2 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?locations=PK.

(kt):

Pakistan.

Yadav, P.Y., & Rani, J.R. (2011). Role of Communication in Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Global Media Journal – Indian Edition, 2(2). Ziska, L.H. (2011). Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide and Global Crop Production: Food Security and Uncertainty. In: Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture, Dinar, A., and R.O. Mendelsohn (Eds.). Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., Cheltenham UK, pp.9-31. Yang Hui is a master’s degree student at the College of Journalism and Communication of Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, P.R China. Her major is Drama and Film. Her research direction is New Media Art. Her research interests are Films, Chines Traditional Culture & Art, and Climate Change. Yh1829482747 @163.com

Dr.Muhammad Mudassar Riaz is a PhD Fellow at College of Journalism and Communication of Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, P.R China. His major is Literary and Cultural Communication, and his research interests are Cultural Communication, Chinese Traditional Culture, Religious & Intercultural Communication, and climate change. He received his M.A and M.Phil. degrees in Media Studies from Islamia University of Bahawalpur (IUB). mitr1986 @outlook.com

Dr. Muhammad Naeem Javed is an Associate Professor and Chairperson in the Department of Mass Communication at the Lahore Leads University, Pakistan. He got his master’s degree in Mass Communication from Bahauddin Zakaria University, Multan and received M.Phil. & Ph.D. in Media Studies from The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan. He served one year as Assistant Professor in a School of Media & Communication Studies (SMCS) at the University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan. His research area of interest is involved in Climate Change and Role of Print Media, and core capabilities in content and discourse analysis in research studies. naeemch18@ gmail.com Dr. Abdul Rehman Madni has been currently serving as Lecturer in the Department of Communication and Media Studies at the University of Sargodha, Pakistan. He completed his Ph.D. in Communication Studies from University Utara Malaysia, Malaysia. Previously, he served as Assistant Professor at Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan. His research area of interest is involved in Health Communication and Core Capabilities in Behavioural Analysis in research studies.

Dr. Cheng Yuru is a Professor at the College of Journalism and Communication, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China. He received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism from Fudan University and PhD (Media Anthropology) from Yunnan University. He was a journalist/Correspondent in Yunnan Daily and he was TV presenter/host, producer, and channel director at Yunnan TV Station. He was Director at Yunnan Ethnicity Film Studio. He wrote a book on The Field Theory of Communication. His research fields are Media Anthropology, Ethnic Cultural Communication, Scripts writing and Documentary Films.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

An Improved Multi-Reservoir Operation using Gridline Operating Rule for Water Management in Chao Phraya River Basin Assada Kijpayoong1 and Panuwat Pinthong1* Faculty of Technical Education, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, THAILAND. *Corresponding Author (Email: panuwat.pinthong@gmail.com) 1

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10D Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 14 June 2021 Received in revised form 10 July 2021 Accepted 20 July 2021 Available online 23 July 2021

Keywords:

Reservoir Operation; Harmony Search (HS); Genetic Algorithm; Optimization; Gridline Operating Rule (GOR); Water peak discharge; Water resource management. .

The release of water from the multi-reservoir system in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) is extremely important since this basin has the largest irrigation area in Thailand with a large volume of water use. There are four main reservoirs, consist of Bhumibol, Sirikit, Khwae Noi Bumrungdan, and Pasak Jolasid reservoirs. The operators have to decide when and how to release water from the reservoirs for the water allocations in the CPRB. The development of a decision-making model for optimal multi-reservoir release in the CPRB based on the Gridline Operating Rule concept will be useful for the decision-makers to release water properly. The objectives of the model are reducing peak discharge at control point C4 and reducing water shortages in the irrigation areas. The performance of water allocation was also evaluated by using reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency indices. The result indicates that the calibration period, Gridline Operating Rule With Harmony Search (GOR-HS) with three indices values of 74%, 452 million cubic meters (MCM), and 46%, respectively. In addition, it could reduce floods in 2011 by 16 days; the volume of water is 819 MCM and peak discharge is 192 cubic meters per second which may affect the area. Disciplinary: Civil Engineering & Technology (Hydrology), Computer Application. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Kijpayoong, A., Pinthong, P. (2021). An Improved Multi-Reservoir Operation using Gridline Operating Rule for Water Management in Chao Phraya River Basin. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10D, 1-14. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.193

1 Introduction The area of Thailand is 51.31 million hectares, with an irrigation area of 5.25 million hectares. The Chao Phraya River Basin area is an important river basin that has an irrigation area of 2.08 million hectares or approximately 39.62 percent of the entire irrigation area of the country. It

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relies for its water source on 4 main reservoirs, namely Bhumibol, Sirikit, Khwae Noi Bumrungdan (Khwae Noi), and Pasak Jolasid (Pasak) reservoirs with capacities of 13,462 9,510 939 and 960 million cubic meters (MCM), respectively. The water is released to the Chao Phraya River Basin area, consisting of 22 provinces, via 38 irrigation projects. Water allocation can be divided into 6 areas according to Figure 1 consisting of two upper Chao Phraya areas U1 and U2 and four lower Chao Phraya areas L1, L2, L3, and L4. The narrowest point of the river was designated as a control point is shown in Table 1. Also, water demand areas in the Chao Phraya River Basin, according to various groups, are shown in Table 2. Water management in the Chao Phraya River Basin is a multi-purpose water supply and the rule curves of all reservoirs were used for the decision of water release. However, it is difficult to manage the water according to the rule curves because there are many variations of rainfall and inflow each year. The Pasak Reservoir often suffers from overflowing water due to a large volume of reservoir inflow during the rainy season. Because its location is close to an important economic area, the reservoir operation for reducing the flooding in the downstream area is more complex and difficult. In 2011, the heavy rainfall is concentrated over the upstream and downstream of the Chao Phraya River Basin; hence, flooding occurs in a vast area of the river basin. Furthermore, during 2014 - 2016, there were water shortages due to less rainfall. This paper presents The Gridline Operating Rule (GOR), together with an appropriate technique by using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Harmony Search (HS) methods to find the appropriate value of variables that were used in the grid techniques to develop a model of suitable water release for the reservoir system in the Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand.

Figure 1: Grouping of water allocation and control points in the river basin.

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Table 1: Control Points in the Chao Phraya River Basin Control Point C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

Discharge Max m3/s MCM 476 41 1,120 97 1,815 157 3,590 310 1,175 102

Table 2: The Average Water Demand in Chao Phraya River Basin (2010-2018) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Avg. Demand (MCM) 2,218 2,245 2,066 1,282 1,159 1,907

Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Avg. Demand (MCM) 2,240 1,907 1,222 975 1,138 1,665

2 Literature Review There are many methods to determine reservoir rule curves, such as a statistical rule curve [1], a probability base rule curve [2], and a vacancy rule curve [3],[4]. However, many researchers have proposed various techniques to solve the problem of planning and operating a reservoir appropriately. In the past, mathematical techniques were applied. Azamathulla, H. Md. et al. [5] applied Linear Programming (LP) with the real-time Chiller Reservoir operating system in the Madhya State, India, to allocate suitable irrigation water for plants at the farm level at different times, for different plants and to effectively reduced water shortages. However, the LP method has limitations for applying nonlinear [6, 7] problems. In summary, the LP method is suitable for solving problems where the relationship between the variables of the objective equations and conditional equations are linear. The Dynamic Programming (DP) method divides the problem into stages and finds the answer for each stage until receiving an appropriate answer in the final stage. In Thailand, The DP methods were used to study the criteria for releasing water from Bhumibol Dam and Sirikit Dam by Chaleeraktrakoon C. et al. [8]. The result of this study indicates that the DP method was successful in increasing the efficiency of the management of both reservoirs, which could reduce the period that the storage capacity exceeded the capacity and reduced the water shortage period to the lowest. The development of a solution of the LP and the DP led to the development of Nonlinear Programming (NLP), but the complexity of solving the problem was higher than the LP method, it took a long time to find the answer than the original method [9], [10]. Previous studies have explored the solution of planning and operation of the reservoir was implemented by using optimization techniques to solve the problem of water release, which was a

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nonlinear and non-convergence model, such as the Genetic Algorithm (GA), which was the first technique used to solve problems of finding the appropriate value for reservoir operation. The GA method, Holland [11] was the initiator of such a technique which had the concept of problem-solving by using the principle of natural selection to find the most suitable value. It could solve problems in linear and non-linear forms. Wardlaw and Sharif [12] applied the GA to solve problems of networks of four reservoirs and ten reservoirs, and the result of this study found that GA obtained higher potential than using the DP method. The application of many hybrid techniques, such as Pinthong [13], Genetic and Neurofuzzy Algorithm (Neuro-Fuzzy-GA) techniques to determine the water release criteria of the Pasak Reservoir, the study showed that Neuro-Fuzzy-GA could more reduce water shortage and reduce the volume of spill compared with the actual reservoir operation; Nevertheless, this method could solve the problem well, but it required complicated steps. Lee and Geem [14] employed the Harmony Search (HS) technique, which was inspired by the composition of an orchestra by the musical instrument and applying it to solve problems that needed to find appropriate values. Determining musical notes was like a decision variable used to find the most suitable value of an objective function. The HS workflow begins with a random number of notes based on the length of the song, which determines the harmony memory size (HMS). Then, it starts the memory consideration process by creating and analyzing a new set of notes from the existing HM through the harmony memory considering rate (HMCR) and entering the pitch adjustment process, which requires the pitch adjusting rate (PAR) and the random selection of notes to be changed. After that, it makes the best comparison according to the objective function. The worst song set in HMS is replaced by song sets that have been modified in past processes, and this process is continued repeatedly until the population in the specified model gets the most appropriate value according to the specified objective function. This study presents an application of the GA and HS methods to determine the appropriate parameters of the GOR techniques for operating four main reservoirs by considering reducing the water shortage in the Chao Phraya basin as much as possible under flood protection restrictions, the physical limitations of the river and the limit of minimum water demand.

3 The Development of a Decision-Making Modeling for Optimal Multi-Reservoir Release in the Chao Phraya River Basin by Using the Gridline Operation Rule Technique 3.1 Concept of Gridline Operation Rule The process of releasing water by the Gridline Operation Rule (GOR) technique has the following variables: 1) The volume of water is used to divide the line at the horizontal axis of the various reservoirs (Linei).

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2) The number of days that the reservoir has to release water in advance to prevent the reservoir overflow at i (nDayi). 3) The parameters of water release proportion in the horizontal axis of the reservoir at i under Linel (CLi,l ). 4) The parameters of water release proportion in the vertical axis of the reservoir at i in month m (CMi,m). For the formulation of the gridline, the horizontal gridline used the GOR technique to determine the appropriate value to randomly select the water grid at the reservoir in the horizontal axis of line1 to linen and randomly select the appropriate water release proportion under the horizontal axis CL1 to CLn. The vertical grid designation specified that on the 1st day of each month the reservoir was divided into the gridline in the vertical axis and used the technique to find the appropriate value to randomly calculate the suitable water release proportion of the vertical axis CM1 to CM12 as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Example of gridding and vertical and horizontal efficiency. In this study, the release of water was proportional to the available water volume of each reservoir compared to the total volume of available water in the four reservoirs, with the volume of water demand of the watershed and the water release proportion of the gridline as Re(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) = where

AS𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 ×𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑡𝑡 ×𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙,𝑚𝑚 ∑4𝑖𝑖=1 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

Cgrid𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙,𝑚𝑚 = C𝐿𝐿𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙 × C𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖,𝑚𝑚

(1), (2),

Re(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡)

= Water release function of reservoir i at the time 𝑡𝑡 (MCM)

𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑡𝑡

= Total water demand at the time 𝑡𝑡 (MCM)

C𝐿𝐿𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙

= Proportion of water release at the horizontal axis of reservoir 𝑖𝑖 under line l

AS𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

Cgrid𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙,𝑚𝑚 C𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖,𝑚𝑚

= Available water of reservoir i at the time 𝑡𝑡 (MCM)

= Proportion of water release gridline of reservoir 𝑖𝑖 under line l in the month m

= Proportion of water release at vertical axis of reservoir 𝑖𝑖 in the month m

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3.2 Water Release Criteria from the Four Reservoirs The release of water from all four reservoirs had a process, as shown in Figure 3. The first step was to anticipate the volume of inflow water to the reservoirs in advance, as the number of nDay days, by considering releasing the water from the reservoirs in advance to reduce the outflow and control of the volume of water release which was not to exceed downstream river capacity including side flow of each reservoir. Start t=1 Forecast Storage four Reservoir Start i=1 Yes

Reservoiri,t+nday Spill

Number of Spill >= 1

Reservoiri,t+nday-1 Spill

Yes

Increased Release F(i,t)

Adjust Another Reservoir Release F’(i,t)

Yes

i=i+1

i<4

Sti ≥ Linei,1

Reduce Release AF(i,t)

Yes

t<n

Yes

Check Inflow for Release M(i,t)

Check Limit Release H(i,t)

t=t+1

No End

Figure 3: Workflow of the four reservoir model of water release GOR So that the reservoir storage did not exceed the normal storage, as shown in Equation 3, which would increase the water release rate by 20% of the maximum release capacity of the reservoir, as shown in Equation (4) until the volume of water release was equal to maximum water release. If the anticipated volume of inflow water did not cause an overflow of the reservoir as in Equation 5 After reducing the water release by 20% until the volume of water released was close to the volume of water demand as Equation (6). While other reservoirs would reduce water release proportionally according to Equation (7). 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛

𝑆𝑆i,t + ∑𝑑𝑑=1 𝑖𝑖(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+𝑑𝑑 − 𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+𝑑𝑑 ) ≥ 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑖𝑖

𝐹𝐹 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) = �

𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 + 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 + 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 < 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 + 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 < 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖

𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛

𝑆𝑆i,t + ∑𝑑𝑑=1 𝑖𝑖(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+𝑑𝑑 − 𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+𝑑𝑑 ) < 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑖𝑖

𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 − 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 − 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) = � 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 − 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−1 − 0.2 × 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡)

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(3). (4). (5).

(6).

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Whereas

𝐹𝐹′(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) =

𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 ×𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 ×(𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑡𝑡 −𝐹𝐹(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡))×𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑙𝑙,𝑚𝑚 ∑4𝑖𝑖=1 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 ×𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

(7).

Si,t

= The volume of water in the reservoir i at the time interval t (MCM)

nDayi

= Number of forecasted days of inflow water to the reservoir i (day)

NSi

= The volume of water at a normal level of reservoir i (MCM)

IFi,t+d

= The volume of anticipated inflow water to the reservoir i at the time of t + d (MCM)

Di,t+d

= The volume of water demand of reservoir i at the time of t+d (MCM)

F(i,t)

= Water release function to prevent flooding

AF(i,t)

= Function to reduce water release after returning to normal

F’(i,t)

= Water release function of other reservoirs

= Coefficient of function F’(i,t) with a value of 0 for reservoirs that release water according to function F(i,t) and equal to 1 for reservoirs that release water according to function F’(i,t)

Oi,t

= Volume of water release from the reservoir i at the time of t (MCM)

Rmax i = Maximum water release of reservoir i Rmin i

= Minimum water release of reservoir i

However, when the anticipated inflow of water to the reservoir did not cause outflow in any reservoir, they would consider if the water level was above line 1, if so, the reservoir would release water according to M(i,t) function. The volume of water release would be equal to or greater than the water demand as Equation 8, but if the volume of water in the reservoir were lower than the specified level of line 1, the reservoir would release water according to the H(i,t) function. This would release less water than the water demand as Equation 9. In the rainy season, the maximum water release from the reservoir when combining the side flow must not exceed the river capacity, and the minimum release when combined with effective rainfall and the side flow is equal to the water demand. In the dry season, the minimum release is 18 MCM/day, according to Kongjun [15]. 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 + 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) 𝑀𝑀(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) = � 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 + 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) + 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝐻𝐻(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) = �𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡) > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 > 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅(𝑖𝑖, 𝑡𝑡)

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(8)

(9)

Page | 7

3.3 Reservoir Performance Indices The performance of analysis indices all four-reservoir is used to evaluate the efficiency of the system, including reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency. The reliability indices are the indicator of reliability in which the reservoir release system can meet demand targets within the period considered according. Vulnerability Indices are indices to measure the severity of average shortage magnitude of failure duration during the entire system failure according. Resiliency Indices are Indices that represent the capability of the system that can recover from a failure state according.

4 Development of the GOR Model for Reservoir Operation the Chao Phraya River Basin 4.1 Determination of Appropriate Parameters of GOR Model The process of finding the appropriate parameters using GA and HS techniques is to perceive the water release coefficient, which will test the number of lines that divide the grid horizontally, starting at 2 lines up to 6 lines, as there were 6 lines in the 5 groups cases. In each line number, the number of water release days was randomly calculated in advance to prevent flooding. The water release coefficient in the horizontal grids was obtained by dividing the line, and the release coefficient in the vertical grids was obtained by dividing the months from Jan to Dec. Then calculate the volume of water released by considering where the water volume exists in any grid. The water release would be according to the release coefficient in that zone grid. Then the best fitness value for all five groups cases of line division was calculated. In this study, a total of 30 sets of variables was used in both techniques, considering the water demand from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID), water management plan data in the Chao Phraya River Basin, from Nov 2009 to the end of October 2016, as summarized in Table 1. The data were used for developing the model consist of the quantity of runoff, rainfall, evaporation, physical characteristics of reservoirs, water demand, and downstream conditions. The reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency indices were used to evaluate the efficiency of reservoir management that minimizes water shortage. The GA techniques consist of selection, crossover, and mutation procedures were tournament selection, uniform crossover, and non-uniform mutation, respectively. The HS procedures determined parameters PAR between 0.65-0.95 and HMCR equals 0.95. Both techniques determined the number of variable sets was 30 and determined the number of calculation cycles to find the best fitness value equals 20,000 cycles.

4.2 Objective Equation of GOR Model Many large reservoirs in Thailand normally were operated for multiple objectives such as irrigation and flood prevention. Therefore multiple-objective management which consists of hard constraint and soft constraint was applied in order to avoid Pareto events or a group of many possible answers. The objective equation 10 was used for a hard constraint.

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𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑍𝑍1 = ∑𝑇𝑇𝑡𝑡=1 �

(𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷4𝑡𝑡 − 3,500)2 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷4𝑡𝑡 > 3,500 0 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷4𝑡𝑡 ≤ 3,500

(10).

Equation (10) illustrates how much water releases from the reservoir at any time t, can reduce the Discharge rate at the control point C4 (DC4t) not exceed the threshold. Objective equations as shown in Equations (11) and (12) were used for soft constraint, 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑍𝑍2 = ∑𝑇𝑇

∑𝑇𝑇 𝑡𝑡=1 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡

(11),

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑍𝑍3 = ∑𝑇𝑇

∑𝑇𝑇 𝑡𝑡=1 𝑆𝑆ℎ𝑡𝑡

(12).

4 𝑡𝑡=1 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 4 𝑡𝑡=1 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

Equations (11) and 12 provide the indicators for controlling the volume of water released from the reservoirs to reduce water spills (Spt) and water shortages (Sht). Equation (13) was used for calculating the constraint of the water balance scenario in the reservoir throughout the scenario time T. 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡+1 = 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 + 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡

(13).

𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 < 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 < 𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖

(14).

The constraint equation in terms of the volume of water released from the reservoir is

5 Results and Discussion The results of this study consist of three parts, model calibration, model validation, and model application which can be explained as follows.

5.1 Model Calibration The calibrated model, for the period 1 Nov 2010 – 31 Oct 2013, considered the horizontal water distribution lines at line 2 to line 6, as show result in Table 3. It found that GOR-HS is high performance at line 4, with parameters that are the best, as in Table 4. while GOR-GA is high performance at line 3 with parameters that are the best, as in Table 5. Table 3: Summary of the test for the suitable line number of years 2010-2013 by HS and GA technique. Line 2 3 4 5 6

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Water Shortage (MCM) Obs. HS 4,896 4,190 10,169 5,480 4,493 5,315

GA 4,861 4,455 5,239 5,179 4,913

Reliability % Number of Spills (Day) HS GA HS GA 69 68 0 0 70 72 0 0 74 68 0 0 73 67 0 0 65 66 0 0

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Table 4: Best decision variables from HS technique Reservoir (i) nDay Line 1 Storage (MCM, %AS)

Line 2 Line 3 Line 4

CLi,l

CMi,m

CLi,1 CLi,2 CLi,3 CLi,4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bhumibol (i=1) 18 13,269 (99%) 7,761 (58%) 5,346 (40%) 4,186 (31%) 0.80 0.78 0.69 0.37 0.71 0.90 0.92 1.09 1.39 0.88 0.42 0.43 0.29 0.36 1.32 0.45

Sirikit (i=2) 29 8,178 (86%) 4,848 (51%) 4,648 (49%) 2,917 (31%) 0.94 0.9 0.89 0.13 1.11 1.09 1.10 1.25 1.95 0.47 0.91 1.40 0.91 0.12 1.09 0.65

Khwae Noi (i=3) 15 930 (99%) 670 (71%) 267 (28%) 115 (12%) 0.96 0.73 0.69 0.24 1.46 1.40 1.57 0.55 0.19 1.93 0.77 0.47 0.63 1.65 1.28 0.38

Pasak (i=4) 17 941 (98%) 453 (47%) 214 (22%) 80 (8%) 0.96 0.83 0.48 0.23 1.71 1.99 1.88 1.50 1.62 0.63 1.81 0.18 0.21 1.51 1.07 1.04

Table 5: Best decision variables from GA technique Reservoir (i)

Bhumibol (i=1)

Sirikit (i=2)

Khwae Noi (i=3)

Pasak (i=4)

nDay

12 13,365 (99%) 7,472 (38%) 4,573 (8%) 0.90 0.87 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.89 0.79 1.12 0.64 0.48 0.20 0.40 1.20 0.55 0.91

25 9,443 (99%) 4,781 (29%) 3,316 (7%) 0.94 0.84 0.8 1.11 1.08 1.44 1.82 1.57 0.75 1.20 0.42 0.93 1.38 0.55 1.20

14 840 (89%) 330 (32%) 276 (26%) 0.98 0.77 0.75 1.46 1.65 1.50 0.57 1.42 0.95 1.18 1.35 0.27 1.88 0.72 0.22

17 807 (84%) 261 (27%) 137 (14%) 0.99 0.65 0.22 1.71 1.70 1.13 1.27 0.29 0.55 0.20 1.40 1.58 0.13 1.17 1.00

Storage (MCM, %AS) CLi,l

CMi,m

Line 1 Line 2 Line 3 CLi,1 CLi,2 CLi,3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

When comparing the results of GOR-HS, GOR-GA, and actual operation. It was found that the water shortage from GOR-HS was less than the actual operation evaluated to be 5,480 MCM

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with the reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency indices of 74%, 452 MCM, and 46%, respectively, without the occurrence of overflow. GOR-GA is less than the actual operation evaluated to be 4,455 MCM with the reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency indices of 72%, 598 MCM, and 45%, respectively, without the occurrence of overflow. While, the actual operation had water shortages, reliability, vulnerability, resiliency, and the number of overflow days of 10,169 MCM, 52%, 679 MCM, 29%, and 131 days, respectively, as shown in Table 6. Table 6: Reservoir operation with the actual data, GOR-HS and GOR-GA technique from the calibrated model Observe Demand (MCM) Release (MCM) Water Shortage (MCM) Reliability Vulnerability Resiliency Spill (Day)

57,023 10,169 52% 679 29% 131

GOR-HS 62,699 58,750 5,480 74% 452 46% 0

GOR-GA 59,218 4,455 72% 598 45% 0

Bhumibol Reservoir Normal Storage

GOR-HS

Sirikit Reservoir

GOR-GA

Obs.

Dead Storage

Normal Storage

GOR-GA

Obs.

Dead Storage

10,000

Volume (MCM)

14,000

GOR-HS

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

2,000 Nov-10

Nov-13

May-11

Nov-11

Khwae Noi Reservoir Normal Storage

GOR-HS

Obs.

Dead Storage

Normal Storage

Volume (MCM)

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

Pasak Reservoir

GOR-GA

1,000

0 Nov-10

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Nov-10

May-11

GOR-HS

Nov-11

GOR-GA

May-12

Obs.

Nov-12

Dead Storage

May-13

Nov-13

Figure 4: Simulation of the volume of water in the four reservoirs during the model calibration Control Point C4 5,000

Obs.

GOR-HS

Discharge Max 3,500 cms

GOR-GA

4,500

Discharge (cms.)

4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jul 11

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12

Figure 5: Simulation results of water discharge at Control Point C4 year 2011 The volume of water in the reservoirs at that time is shown in Figure 4. The result of GORHS and GOR-GA, water release from the three reservoirs during the 2011 flood at the control point

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C4 were 819 and 1,059 MCM, the number of overflow days was reduced from 49 days to 33 days and 40 days respectively. However, GOR-HS was able to reduce the peak discharge at control point C4 in the year 2011 from 4,689 m3/s to 4,497 m3/s. While GOR-GA has a peak discharge higher than the actual operation from 4,689 m3/s to 5,070 m3/s, as shown in Figure 5.

5.2 Model Validation According to the validation results for the period from 1 Nov 2013 to 31 Oct 2018. It was found that GOR-GA was best effective in reducing water shortages, with reliability index values of 8,022 MCM and 83%, respectively. However, the vulnerability and resilience index was lower than the other methods with 798 and 31% respectively. GOR-HS was the 2nd efficient in all aspects with Water Shortage, Reliability, Vulnerability, and Resiliency with values of 8,764 MCM, 80%, 632 MCM, and 33% respectively, as shown in Table 7.

The reservoir water volumes are shown in Figure 6. In 2017, the Chao Phraya River Basin

floods. However, Discharge at control point C4 does not exceed the maximum discharge, as shown in Figure 7. Table 7: Reservoir operation with the actual data, GOR-HS and GOR-GA technique from the validated model Observe Demand (MCM) Release (MCM) Water Shortage (MCM) Reliability Vulnerability Resiliency Spill (Day)

56,678 14,187 63% 562 39% 127

GOR-HS 71,832 59,974 8,764 80% 632 33% 0

GOR-GA 61,505 8,022 83% 798 31% 0

Bhumibol Reservoir Normal Storage

GOR-HS

Sirikit Reservoir

GOR-GA

Obs.

Dead Storage

Normal Storage

GOR-GA

Obs.

Dead Storage

10,000

14,000 12,000

Volume (MCM)

GOR-HS

10,000 8,000 6,000

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

4,000 2,000 Nov-10

3,000 May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

2,000 Nov-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Khwae Noi Reservoir Normal Storage

GOR-HS

GOR-GA

Dead Storage

Normal Storage

Volume (MCM)

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

Pasak Reservoir Obs.

1,000

0 Nov-13

Nov-15

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

GOR-HS

May-15

Nov-15

Obs.

GOR-GA

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Dead Storage

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

Figure 6: Volume of water in the reservoirs during the model validation

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Control Point C4 Obs.

4,000

GOR-HS

GOR-GA

Discharge Max 3,500 cms

3,500

Discharge (cms.)

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

Nov 17

Dec 17

Jan 18

Figure 7: Simulation results of water discharge at Control Point C4 year 2017

6 Conclusion This study involved the development of a decision model using the GOR technique. GOR was performed by a Gridline divided into horizontal lines from the reservoir water volume division. The vertical line uses the 1st day of each month as a separator. Finally, the appropriate water discharge coefficient for each grid was determined. GOR performance

assessments using performance

indicators such as reliability,

vulnerability, and resiliency. Results showed that the model performed well in both calibration and validation. Specifically, modeling results indicate that the use of decision criteria for releasing water obtained from the GOR-HS and GOR-GA could effectively provide the water release criteria of all four reservoirs. Especially in years with heavy rainfall. GOR-HS is able to reduce water scarcity and provide better indices of reliability, vulnerability, and resilience of the Chao Phraya River Basin compared with actual performance. Whereas GOR-GA was most effective in years with moderate to low rainfall. It has the best water shortage reduction and reliability index. The newly developed modeling technique is based on GOR-HS and GOR-GA. It can be applied with a multi-purpose reservoir for reduced water shortage in the dry season, peak discharge, and duration of floods. Which could be very beneficial to many sectors and stakeholders, especially decision- makers.

7 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8 Acknowledgement The author wishes to thank the Center for Water Engineering and Infrastructures Research, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok for all supports as well as the Royal Irrigation Department and personnel for supporting data.

9 References [1]

Chaleeraktrakoon, C., Chaipuriphat, A., & YingKrainkrai, P. (2001). Management of Available Water at the Bhumiphol and Sirikit Dams Base on Rule Curves. the 7th National Conference on Civil Engineering, (pp. 83-86). Thailand.

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[2]

Vudhivanich, V. (2000). Simulation Criteria for Probability Based Rule Curves reservoir operation. In V. Vudhivanich, Research Techniques in Irrigation Engineering (pp. 50-62). Thailand.

[3]

Rittima, A. (2003). Development of Reservoir Operating Rules for Mun Bon-Lam Chae Reservoirs. Proceedings of the 40th Kasetsart University Annual Conference (pp. 156-165). Thailand: Kasetsart University.

[4]

Puttrawutichai, S. (2017). Optimal Operation of a Multipurpose Multi-Reservoir System in The Upper Chao Phraya River Basin. Thailand: Kasetsart University.

[5]

Azamathulla, H., Ab Ghani, A., Zakaria, N., & Chun Kiat, C. (2009). Linear Programming Approach for Irrigation Scheduling - A case Study. 14th MANCID Annual Conference (14th MANCO), (pp. 1-11). Malaysia.

[6]

Needham, J., Watkins, D., Lund, J., & Nanda, S. (2000). Linear Programming for Flood Control in the Iowa and Des Moines Rivers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 118-127.

[7]

Abrishamchi, A., Dashti, M., & Tajrishy, M. (2011). Development of a Multi-Reservoir Flood Control Optimization Model; Application to the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, 3048-3057.

[8]

Chaleeraktrakoon, C., & Kangrang, A. (2007). Dynamic programming with the principle of progressive optimality for searching rule curves. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 170-176.

[9]

Labadie, J. W. (2004). Opimal operation of multireservoir systems: state-of-the-art review. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 93-111.

[10]

Yeh, W. G. (1985). Reservoir Management and Operations Models: A State-of-the-Art Review. Water Resources Research, 1797-1818.

[11]

Holland, J. H. (1992). Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. University of Michigan Press.

[12]

Wardlaw, R., & Sharif, M. (1999). Evaluation of genetic algorithms for optimal reservoir system operation. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 25-33.

[13]

Pinthong, P., & Weesakul, S. (2008). A hybrid genetic-neurofuzzy system based decision modeling for real-time reservoir operation. proceeding of the 13th National Conference on Civil Engineering, (pp. 257262). Thailand.

[14]

Geem, Z. W. (2007). Optimal Scheduling of Multiple Dam System Using Harmony Search Algorithm. International Work-Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (pp. 316-323). Springer.

[15]

Kongjun, T. (2018). Water Management in The Chao Phraya River Basin during Drought Crisis. The National Defence College of Thailand Journal, 8-34. Assada Kijpayoong is a student at the Department of Teacher Training in Civil Engineering, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Thailand. He got a Bachelor's degree in Irrigation Engineering from Kasetsart University, Thailand. His researches are Water Resource Management and Computer Application Development.

Dr.Panuwat Pinthong is a Faculty member at the Departmenr of Teacher Training in Civil Engineering, and Head of Center for Water Engineering and Infrastructures Research King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok. He got a Ph.D. (Water Engineering and Management) from the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand.

Note: The origin of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at The 8th International Conference on Technical Education (ICTechEd8), jointly held by the Faculty of Technical Education, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok (KMUTNB), Thailand, and the Association of Industrial Education (AIE) during 8-9 July 2021.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Roles of the Mechanisms of Merging and Deleting Internal Spaces in Realizing Economic Design for Affordable Houses in the City of Mosul Hasan Abdulrazzaq AL-Sanjary1*, Esraa Malallah Azi1 , Hatem Kasim Ahmad1 Department of Architecture, University of Mosul, IRAQ. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +966 123 456, Hasan.sanjary@uomosul.edu.iq). 1

Paper ID: 12A10E Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 05 January 2021 Received in revised form 01 July 2021 Accepted 15 July 2021 Available online 24 July 2021

Keywords:

Merging mechanism; Deletion mechanism; Sustainable housing; Affordable housing; Urban house spaces; Merging activities; Cancellation activities; Kitchen spaces area; Living spaces area; Reception space; House design; Sleeping Space; Residential plot.

Abstract

Merging spaces and deleting unnecessary activities are essential mechanisms to minimize the cost of affordable housing. However, their act must meet the multiple aspects of sustainability both in its economic and social aspects (by reducing the house area within acceptable limits of the resident adaptation to the implemented design). However, there is still a lack of local studies that clarify the role, ranges, and procedures for applying these concepts and the relationship between them in influencing the design and controlling its spaces areas. Accordingly, this research aims to "determine the role and the influence of each of the two mechanisms in spaces rationalization for sustainable urban housing" and the association of their effect with the variables of the area and dimensions of the residential plot. The research assumes that determining the building area can create a lot of modalities that govern the merging and cancellation in providing housing activities. To achieve this goal, a field study was conducted for a group of residential houses of the limited plot area within different proportions from the private urban residential sector of the city of Mosul, assuming that these designs can be considered as a realistic reference to how these procedures influence house design. Disciplinary: Architecture Science and Engineering. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: AL-Sanjary, H. A., Azi, E. M., and Ahmad, H. K. (2021). Roles of the Mechanisms of Merging and Deleting Internal Spaces in Realizing Economic Design for Affordable Houses in the City of Mosul. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10E, 1-12. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.194

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1 Introduction The economic factor stands out to be at the forefront of sustainability in housing projects, (Khurfa, 2010) and in different manners, like reducing a residential plot area (Witchayangkoon et al., 2021), controlling the house, or the housing project design taking into account the appropriate living conditions (Aranya, 2001). This may change the housing costs are too expensive and rarely match the budgets of the poorest intended recipients (Wainer et al., 2016).

2 Literature Review 2.1 Mechanisms for Controlling the Building Area Various studies have presented three important principles to determine the area of the dwelling. They were: (Al-ukaedi, 2018). - Preventing recurrence of activities. - Deleting unnecessary activities. - Merging activities. While it is possible to deal easily with the first factor, which keeps the existence of activities, dealing with the latter is more complicated. The decision to merge or delete specific activities needs the assurance of the resident adaptation to canceling the activity or accomplishing it within integrated spaces and in different functional relationships.

2.1.1 Merging of Activities Merging of activities is the principle of exploiting a single space with more than one activity with range depends on the size of the dwelling and the degree of its privacy. It can take place based on time separation (Rafat, 1996), or (as in our study) by the spatial separation of activities within the same space by furniture, movable partitions, and the sliding doors or by different levels (Tannous et al., 2013). Merging activities relate to the concept of the open plan, which denotes the principle of spatial integration of functions and has constantly connected to the principles of flexibility and fluidity of space. It is generally used in all modern living spaces contributing to quality and space comfort. Employing the space for more than one activity increases its operational efficiency and eliminates the need to add spaces rarely used. The open plan method works directly on designing a house with less space needed (Alfirevic et al.,2016). Merging the activities classified in several studies. Dielmann classified some of the activities able to merge, including (bathroom + toilet + washing/ reception + living + dining), (Dielmann, 1979). This procedure distinguishes between important activities, such as living, and other activities that are of less use, such as the activities of reception and dining for guests (Al-Rashoud, 2004). Locally, the recommendations for studying the housing scheme in Iraq for Paul Service formed the most important local indications that turned to the value of merging activities in

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achieving the affordable housing design, which can change depending on family lifestyle and privacy required for its members (Haidaran, 2002). The study proposed four basic schemes in which different levels of merging activities are achieved with gradients that have emerged most clearly in the design of residential areas of limited size (150m2), where it suggested merging living activities(dining + living + reception) and (cooking + storage) beside (bathroom + washing) each in one isolated space. On the actual real side, a study based on a sample of (<200->350 m2) houses in the city of Mosul reviewed limited merging operations that focused on merging (cooking + dining/shower + washing) activities and only (2.3%) of merging of living activities by a reception. This showed a weak acceptance of the housing reality at the time for the open plan and all its economical advantages (Al-Sanjary, 1990).

2.1.2 Cancellation of Unnecessary Activities A successful functional design must be free from the area of unexploited spaces. It must also be determined the actual need for each activity and the extent of the continuing need for it to determine the justification for the commitment to provide it (Zarour, 2013). Many local studies provided several indicators about the cancellation of activities in urban housing. Al-Sanjary classified two types of spaces in the dwelling, the basic and possible spaces, depending on the area of the house plot and the resident's properties. This indicates that the house area reduction deletes some house activities (Al-Sanjary, 1990). Al-Din (2011) also discussed the proportions of the existed, merged, or canceled spaces in the house while reducing the area of the residential plot of contemporary housing in Baghdad.

2.1.3 Distinguishing Between Merging and Cancellation Activities A distinction can be made between the merging and the cancellation of unnecessary activities. The former works to cancel the independent existence of specific activity with the possibility to achieve it within a space for other activities which may get changes in its area or its relationships with the organization. Cancellation includes the same process of deleting the activity but without any spatial or organizational change to other spaces to accommodate their achievement. Although cancellation and merging are two possible mechanisms to reduce the built-up house area, they work differently in achieving the principle of sustainability. The first archives it by clarifying the higher degree of economic rationalization while merging achieve a less degree of rationalization to present the higher compatibility with the needs of the inhabitant by creating an opportunity to provide the activity, albeit in a compact manner.

2.1.4 The Role of Plot Determinants on the Procedures for Merging and Cancellation in the Housing Activities The correlation of the emergence of merging and cancellation in the dwelling activities with the reduction of a house built area justifies the interest in the effects of the determinants of the dwelling plot on the appearance of these mechanisms, through its role in determining the possible

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built-up area. The Al-Ukaedi Study linked the house total built-up area with the residential plot area and with the plot width within the fixed plot area. This may justify more signs of cancellation and merging of spaces with the decrease of the area and width of the residential plot. The limited area of the residential plot in contemporary housing pushed some activities to the upper floor, such as the reception space (the study of Al-Ukaedi) or sleeping spaces in general (the study of Shams alDin) or to cancel some external spaces such as the garage and the front garden. These limitations justify the study concentration on the cancellation and merging procedures within the ground floor without the upper level, which is usually occupied by sleeping spaces excluded from these procedures.

3 Method The local reality indicates the lack of studies clarify the ranges and possible detailed procedures to apply both methods in sustainable urban economic housing in the city of Mosul. These are the ranges that express the privacy of the resident's decisions and priorities in rationalizing the housing area. Since the wrong exploitation of deleting and merging mechanisms can give negative effects on the adaptation of the resident with his house design characters, the difficulty in distinguishing their role in influencing housing design and controlling the areas of its spaces and the relationship between them is considered a clear problem facing the sustainable design process in housing projects. This research determines the roles and location of each of the two mechanisms' effect in the spatial rationalization of the spaces of sustainable urban housing and the nature of its association with the basic residential plot variables of the area and dimensions. The research proposition is that "determining the house built-up area in the urban environment of the city of Mosul can create several modalities expressing the resident viewpoint of using merging and cancellation in provided housing activities and the nature of their role in this field." Discovering such patterns can support the designer with the economic procedures on the standard housing designs without compromising the maximum limits of the resident adaptation in the future. This matter becomes more important by the increased interest in establishing housing projects, the absolute necessity to restore normal life to the city today. To achieve this goal, the research relied on an analytical approach applied to the data of the real contemporary housing in the city considering that analyzing its actual outcome (and regardless of the efficiency of the designer) can present the methods of dealing between the two mechanisms and the functional plan according to resident opinion in the actual housing.

3.1 Field Survey Sample The actual outcome of the real housing can present by the field survey of an elected house sample from modern residential neighborhoods in the city of Mosul. To achieve the research goals, the houses samples should be: 1- For newly constructed houses. (not more than 15 years old)

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2 - Varying of the limited plot area (not more than 165 SQM) and facade width (7.5 M or less). 3- Comprehensive for different residential neighborhoods of the city. 4- The sample should not be of the full architectural effort in the design (to monitor the procedures applied directly by the dweller). Table 1: Field survey sample Sample plot characteristics ≤ 5.5 5.5 - 6.5 > 6.5

Plot width Total

≤ 115 10 10 10 30

plot area 140-115 10 10 10 30

Total > 140 10 10 10 30

30 30 30 90

3.2 Field Study Thus, the field study was conducted on an elected sample of 90 house units classified according to the plot area and width (Table 1). As the sample size is limited, the analysis results cannot accurately represent the actual frequency ratio in reality, which may require additional studies and larger samples to be carried out

4 Result and Discussion The results review the most important procedures observed in the sample within the following paragraphs:

4.1 First: Sleeping Spaces Bedrooms appeared in a number between (1-2) rooms in most of the sample size. (Table 2) shows the ratio of samples of one, two, or free of bedrooms houses and also shows that the effect of plot area on the number of bedrooms located on the ground floor. Table 2: Bedrooms distribution in the survey sample Plot area % Of number of bedrooms in ground floor

0 1 2

<115 2.2 30 1.1

140- 115 0 12.2 1.1

>140 0 21.1 12.2

% of the total sample 2.2 83.3 14.5

Average of plot area m2 105 125.5 149.1

The whole sleeping spaces area of the sample ranged between (13-41.2m2) at a rate of (19.8m2) which was proportional to the average area of the residential plot, see Table 3. The bedroom area in the sample of one room ranged between (13-23 m2) at a rate of (17.8 m2). In a twobedroom sample, the area of the first room ranged between (15-25 m2) and at the rate of (17.7 m2). The area of the second room ranged between (10-16.2 m2) at an average of (13.8 m2). Except for one case, and compared to the criteria of the general housing scheme (MCHI, 2010,), all bedrooms areas were above the minimum standard area (12 m2), and each of the two-bedroom samples contained a bedroom with an area of more than (15 m2) the minimum standard area of the main bedroom. This case also included (95%) of houses of one-bedroom in the sample.

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Table 3: Avarage of sleeping spaces areas in the sample Plot area Average area of sleeping spaces

<115 15.9

140- 115 19.4

>140 24.6

4.2 Second: The Reception Suite The semi- Public part of the dwelling which of the following spaces:

4.2.1 Reception Space This space appeared in several distinct forms (Figure 1). First: Independent space, (86.7% of the sample), appeared in several design patterns include: A: The independent space on the ground floor, (82.2% of the sample), appeared in several shapes, include: 1- Completely independent from the living space (52.2% of the total sample) (Figure 1-A1). 2- Separate space abilitable to be opened to the living space, (20% of the total sample) (Figure 1- A2). 3- Reception space containing family living space: This can offer the unavailable family daily living space (4.4% of the total sample) (Figure1-A3). 4- Reception space abilitable to be isolated: which can be opened or isolated without affecting the family privacy (5.6% of the sample) (Figure1-A4). B: The independent space on the upper floor (4.4% of the sample) (Figure1- B). 1

A2 A3 A4 B Figure 1: The main distinctive forms of reception space in the survey sample

Independent reception spaces ranged between (9-28.7 m2) and at the rate of (17.5 m2). Except for one case, this area is larger than the determinants of the Iraqi general housing standards(MCHI, 2010) which ranged between (12-15m2). The available space was affected by the width of the plot and its area, as shown in (Tables 4 & 5).

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Table 4: Relationship between reception average area and width of residential plot Plot width Average area of reception space

< 5.5 16.83

6.5-5.5 17.28

> 6.5 18.5

Table 5: Relationship between reception average area and area of residential plot Plot area The average area of reception space

<115

140-115

>140

17.36

18.21

Second: The lack of a separate reception space (13.3% of the total sample) where the reception space was even canceled or merged with the living space. The average area of living space in this sample was (23.18m2) ranged between (15.5-45.5 m2) which indicated the difference in the family's interest in the reception space. Comparing with the criteria of the general housing standards (Urban-Housing-Standards,2010), which defined the minimum living and reception space with (18-21m2), and (12-15m2) straightly, it is possible to separate the two cases according to the area of the living space. (41.7%) of this sample, where the living spaces are less than 18m2, can be considered as a house with a deleted reception space. While it can be considered as of merged reception (with 20-27 m2 living space in 41.7% and more than 30m2 in 16.6% of the sample). The free floor of the separate reception sample is associated with the narrower and the lesser area of the housing plot (as shown in Table 6), of the whole sample. Several shapes of the first type of reception appeared at different rates of resident plot area ranging from the largest in case of independent reception to the lowest with the independent space on the upper floor (see Table 7). By adding the upper floor reception sample to the sample free from a separate reception on the ground floor, the house average plot area changed between the two types ( with or free from reception) to (131.5, 114.14 m2) straightly. Table 6: Distribution of reception types among the survey sample Plot area Plot width % Of reception type

independent Merge deleting

<5.5 5.6 2.2 3.3

Up to115 - 5.5 >6.5 6.5 7.8 10 2.2 1.1 1.1 0

140- 115 - 5.5 <5.5 >6.5 6.5 10 11.1 11.1 1.1 0 0 0 0 0

Greater than 140 - 5.5 <5.5 >6.5 6.5 10 10 11.1 1.1 0 0 0 1.1 0

Total sample (%) 86.7 7.8 5.5

Table 7: The relationship between reception type and the area of residential plot reception type on ground floor Open to living Independent Living container space Isolated on upper floor No independent merging with living space deleting

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% of sample 50 20 5.6 6.6 4.4 5.6 7.8

average plot area 130.8 135.1 127.1 130.6 130.1 113.6 114.6 114.3 114.1

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4.2.2 The Main Entrance This space appeared in (57.8%) of the sample. Its lowest appearance was with the independent reception separated from the living of the house (isolated or open to living), as the Isolated reception space minimizes the need for family privacy. This justifies the increase in its appearance in other cases of the independent reception space (capable of isolation or living containers) and especially with the reception on the upper floor which can be added to the sample free from the independent reception space as shown in (Table 8) that indicates the higher ratio of entrance existence in this partial sample. Table 8: Distribution of entrance space among types of reception space in the sample

on the ground floor Open to living Living container Isolated on the top floor merging with living

50 20 5.6 6.6 4.4 5.6

% availability of entrance space 33.3 11.1 60 83.3 100 80

deleting

7.8

71.4

Reception type

An independent space

no independent space

% of sample

% availability of entrance space

Type of reception space

39.2

independent reception on a ground floor

81.3

no independent reception on a ground floor

4.2.3 Guests Toilet The space was available only in (8.9%) of the sample associating with the availability of the guest entrance. (except for one case) it related to independence regardless of the area of the residential plot.

4.2.4 Guest Dining This space appeared in (12.2%) of the sample, linking to independent reception space in houses of the largest plots (average of 140.5 m2). The space appeared in two shapes, as an independent space (samples of average 154.4 m2), or as a space combined with the reception (samples of average 132.5 m2). This sample did not provide a clear correlation with guest toilet or entrance which is an expected conclusion from the concentration of this space with separate reception, unlike the entrance space.

4.3 Third: Cooking and Family Dining The hot kitchen space appeared in (33.3%) of the sample to meet the activities of cooking and storing food materials. So, the storage space appeared only in three samples, two of which did not contain the hot kitchen. The average plot area of the floor of the hot kitchen was 138 m2 distributed as in Table 9, which indicates that its area Increased in direct proportion with the house plot area and width. The area of the kitchen space (hot + cold) ranged between 5.5-23.4 m2 at a rate of 13.46 m2. This is higher than the minimum space standard for the general housing standards and varying clearly with the increase of the plot area as shown (Table 10).

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Table 9: Distribution of hot kitchen space in the sample

Plot area /SQM

<115 140- 115 > 140 total

<5.5 %6.7 %3.3 %3.3 %13.3

Plot width /M 6.5- 5.5 >6.5 %6.7 %10 0 %23.3 %20 %26.7 %26.7 %60

total %23.4 %26.6 %50 %100

Table 10: Relationship between kitchen space area and plot area average area of the plot/SQM <115 140- 115 >140 Average area for kitchen space/SQM 111.8 12.2 15.4

The family dining space is distributed in 3 main locations according to (Table 11) which presented that the hot kitchen helped the kitchen to contain the family dining space. Most samples of the hot kitchen were associated with the dining in the kitchen (or in a separate space), while 96.7% of the sample of dining cases in the living were free of the hot kitchen. Table 11: Relationship between family dining and hot kitchen distribution Type of family dining space Separate for family & guest In the kitchen In the living regardless of space availability

% Appearing in a sample of the hot kitchen 6.7 90 3.3

% Appearing in the total sample 4.4 80 15.6

4.4 Fourth: Bathrooms Only two cases were free of the bathroom space, one was without a bedroom on the ground floor and the second was of a bedroom with a private bath. The rest is divided between having separate bathrooms and sanitation (68.2%) and a bathroom with shared facilities (31.8%). The shared type is concentrated in smaller plots at a rate of 119 m2 while separate bathrooms are concentrated in the larger plots at the rate of 132 m2. Washing and bedroom private bath appeared only in(8.9%) and (6.7%) of the sample.

4.5 Fifth: Family Living Space This space presented several variations reflecting the differences in the inhabitants’ interests. In many cases, the living was limited to what is available from the movement areas, kitchen, or by using reception outside the guest's present times. the area of this space ranged (except those without a defined living space) between (8.4-23.3 m2) at a rate of (16.5 m2) and in proportion to the plot area (Table 12). The average area of space, either for the entire sample or all its details, was below (18 sqm), the minimum required by the Iraqi general housing standards (MCHI, 2010), a condition that only met in (40.2%) of the sample. Table 12: Relationship between family living space area and the residential plot The average area of living space

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Average of the plot area ≤115 140- 115 >140 14.4 16.8 17.74

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The sample did not provide a correlation of area change between living space and kitchen, as the change in the kitchen spaces area and by containing dining space was not matched the same change in the living as shown in Table 13. Table 13: Relationship between kitchen and living space areas. Kitchen area Average kitchen area Average living area kitchen area / living area

<9 7.57 13 0.58

12- 9 10.73 16.11 0.67

15- 12 13.04 15.66 0.83

18- 15 16.64 18.08 0.92

>18 19.47 18.07 1.08

5 Conclusion From the results of this study, the focus of activities on the limited area of the ground floor justified the interest of this floor in examining the effect of space reduction on deleting and merging of activities which competed according to its classification into private (sleeping), semiprivate (living), semi-public (guest) spaces and services. The importance of no less than one bedroom regardless of the available area on the ground floor, while increasing floor area justified the provision of additional bedrooms. The focus on providing the reception space despite all the area limitations emerged several solutions to maintain an acceptable form of this space on the ground floor like offering the isolated reception that can be opened to the family space, the reception space with the possibility to use as a family living space, laying off the bedroom on the upper floor to provide the independent reception room on the ground floor, and providing isolated reception space on the upper floor. Providing private sleeping and isolated reception spaces within or higher than the minimum recommendations area of the Iraqi housing standards despite all the restrictions of the built-up or residential plot area limitations. The main entrance offered a presence, which was not in line with the effect of the economic factor. Space presented more appearance in the units free of separate reception space to achieve more resident privacy that is not required by houses containing it. Unlike their interest in the reception space, the family did not present enough interest in adding supportive guest spaces (like guest dining and w.c.). The study showed a wide possibility of deleting these spaces. The interest in private and semi-public spaces affected the share of semiprivate and service spaces on the ground floor. A noticed effect shown on the area of the family living and kitchen is that the available living space decrease below the accepted Iraqi standards in two-thirds of the survey sample. In comparison with the related studies, the sample presented new solutions to offer the isolated reception space instead of dealing with the merging mechanisms of the living activities. As an indicator of the resident changing needs, the sample presented a higher presence of some service spaces (comparing with the results of older local studies of samples with larger plot areas) such as the hot kitchen or the bath attached with the bedroom, while it witnessed the deletion of other activities such as washing and storage spaces.

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The outcome of the residential design reality presented two conflicting assessments. The first, the lack of a suitable proportion and sufficient space for the different activities on the ground floor, while the second, clarified some of the design capabilities to provide space organizations that could be a basis for future affordable housing design.

6 Acknowledgement The researchers acknowledge the assistance of the University of Mosul, College of Engineering, Architectural engineering department for registering the current paper under the scientific plan of the year 2019-2020.

7 Availability of Data and Material All information is included in this study.

8 References Alfirevic, D., Simonovic, S. (2016). Open-plan in Housing Architecture: Origin, Development and Design Approaches for Spatial Integration (Otvoreni plan u stambenoj arhitekturi: Poreklo, razvoj i pristupi prostornom integrisanju). Duck Brunei: 72.012.3/.4 728.012 id BROJ: 227881228. DOI: 10.5937/a-u011551. Al-Rashoud, R. (2004). The effect of behavioral patterns on the design of the living suite in recurring housing units. Master’s thesis, Department of Architecture, Building Sciences, College of Architecture and Planning, King Saud University. AL-Sanjary, H. (1990). A Comparison of Functional Performance Efficiency and Economic Optimization of the Dwelling Unit Spaces in the Public and Private Sectors. Master’s Thesis, Architecture Department, College of Engineering, University of Technology Baghdad. AL-ukaedi, I. ( 2018). The Impact of Minimizing The Area and Width of The Residential Plot on Areal and Functional Characteristics of Urban Residence Spaces in Mosul City. Master’s Thesis, architecture Department College of Engineering, University of Mosul. Aranya. (2001). Low-Cost Housing At Indore. Indian Concrete Journal, 13, New Delhi. Dielmann, H., et al. (1979). The Dwelling. Library of Congress Catalog, Translated into English, James, C. Palmes, printed in Germany. Haidaran, R. (2002). The effect of space organization on the current job performance of the heritage houses in the old city of Mosul. Master’s thesis, Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, University of Mosul. Khurfa, O. (2010). Sustainable housing between environmental determinants and design considerations. Journal of Engineering, 2. MCHI. (2010). Urban-Housing-Standards. The Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Construction and Housing, General Authority for Housing, Division of Studies. Polservice. (1982). Housing Standards For Iraq. Housing Technical Standards and Codes of Practice. Rafat, A. (1996). The Architectural Trilogy - Environment and Void. Shorouk Press, Cairo, Arab Republic of Egypt. Shams Al-Din, H. (2011). Iraqi Contemporary Architecture Analytical Study of The Reality of Housing in Baghdad city, 2000-2010 / Adhamiya, a model. Master’s Thesis, Architecture Department, Baghdad University.

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Tannous, W., Al-Muhanna, Z., Fakoush, A. (2013). Design flexibility as one of the most important criteria for economic housing. Damascus University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 29(1). Wainer, L., Ndengeingoma, B., Murray, S. (2016). Incremental housing, and other design principles for low-cost housing. C-38400-RWA-1.

Witchayangkoon, B., Raksuntorn, W., Seangklieng, K., Sirimontree, S., Hassan, A. S., Arab, Y., Lertpocasombut, K., Anantakarn, K., Thongchom, C., Keawsawasvong, S. (2021). Being Small: Elements and Observations of Small Houses. Journal of Hunan University Natural Sciences, 48(7), 67-73. Zarour, R. A. (2013). The effect of interior design on the success of the content of interior and exterior architectural spaces - detached buildings (villas) in Nablus as a model. MA thesis, Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine. Dr. Hasan Abdulrazzaq Hasan AL-Sanjary is an Assistant Professor at Architectural engineering Department / College of Engineering/ University of Mosul / Master’s Degree in Architecture Engineering from the University of Technology, Ph.D.’s Degree from the University of Technology. His Research Focuses on Affordable Housing Design.

Esraa Malallah Aziz AL- ukaedi is an Assistant Lecturer at the Architectural engineering Department University of Mosul / College of Engineering/ Master’s Degree in Architecture Engineering from the University of Mosul. Her research focuses on Affordable Housing Design.

Dr. Hatem Kasim Ahmad AL-Jomaily is a Lecturer at the Architectural Engineering Department / College of Engineering/ University of Mosul / He Got His Master’s Degree in Architecture Engineering from the University of Szczecin in Poland, Ph.D.’s Degree from the University of Wroclaw in Poland. His Research Focuses on Architecture Engineering.

Note: The origin of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the 5th International Conference on Sustainable Architecture and Urban Design (ICWSAUD 2020) (Virtual Conference), a Joint Conference with the 5th International Conference on Engineering, Innovation, & Technology (ICEIT 2020) held by the School of Housing, Building and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia during 22-23 September 2020.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Integration of Satellite Images and Echo-sounder Data for Mapping of Water Area: A Case Study of Huai Prue Reservoir in Thailand Tanapat Virit1, Kritsada Anantakarn1*, Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri 1, Wunchock Kroehong1, Boonsap Witchayangkoon2* Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Rajamangala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, THAILAND. 2 Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND. *Corresponding Author (Email: singut51@gmail.com, drboonsap@gmail.com). 1

Paper ID: 12A10F Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 19 March 2021 Received in revised form 29 June 2021 Accepted 15 July 2021 Available online 24 July 2021

Keywords:

Multi-sensor data; QuickBird; Sentinel; Topographic data; SAR; GNSS; RTK; Water area; Echo-sounder data; Google Earth; Bathymetry; Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM); Smart IoT bathymetry boat; Bathymetric map.

Abstract

In recent years, droughts, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion have caused bad effects on the socio-economic and livelihood. Weather and hydrological conditions dynamically change during the time that makes a single sensor data impossible for natural disasters such as flood and drought monitoring and management. Multi-sensor data can be applied for data integration and analysis for these applications. In this research, different remote sensing satellite platforms as microwave sensors as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topographic data, Sentinel-1B Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), optical sensor as QuickBird data (GoogleEarth Pro) are integrated with ground survey echo-sounder and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data in real-time kinematic (RTK) mode. This research demonstrates the available data sources and free software functions for remote sensing and GIS analysis for a case study of Huai Prue Reservoir in Nakhon Nayok Province, Thailand. Water areas are temporal identified, analyzed, and compared based on SRTM data and Sentinel-1B SAR data with ground survey and echo-sounder, linking positioning using GNSS data. The topographic maps of these changes are presented for visual assessment. Disciplinary: Civil Engineering (Hydrology), Geomatics and Spatial Technology (Navigation Application, Remote Sensing). ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Virit, T., Annatakarn, K., Fooprateepsiri, R., Kroehong, W., Witchayangkoon, B. (2021). Integration of Satellite Images and Echo-sounder Data for Mapping of Water Area: A Case Study of Huai Prue Reservoir in Thailand. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10F, 1-15. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.195

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1 Introduction In the long term, the impact of climate change as sea-level rise, the increase in water exploitation in the countries upstream of the international river system, and the increase in water demand for internal development will make the situation worse. Droughts, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion are more frequent and severe. The year 2021 is forecasted to continue to be a year of little water, small flood flows to the Chao Phraya River delta, the risk of continued drought, water shortage, and saltwater intrusion in the dry season months of 2020-2021 affects agricultural production and people's livelihood at a high to a serious level (YongJin, 2020). Remote sensing and GNSS technology can be applied for detecting drought areas. Different date of satellite images and field survey using echo-sounder with GNSS receiver is used for bathymetric mapping the water area of the reservoir in Nakhon Nayok province, central Thailand. The multi-sensor approach in this study refers to different remote sensing satellite platforms as Microwave sensors as Sentinel-1B Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data for the area’s topographic information, Optical sensor as QuickBird data (GoogleEarth Pro.) for visual identifying the water area, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver measured in Real-time Kinematic (RTK) mode for collecting precise positioning data, and Echo-sounder sensor for bathymetric data processing and analysis. An in-situ data means ground survey data collection is at the same time as satellite data acquisition. This approach is applied in this research works as the ground survey was conducted on 25 June 2021 and Sentinel-1B SAR data was acquired on 28 June 2021. Active remote sensing is used the microwave radiometers as their own energy (active sensors) to get the characteristics of the ground surface. Passive remote sensing is used the sun’s energy (passive sensors) for measuring the ground features and the system cannot get the data without the sun energy at night or rainy and cloudy weather. The major advantages of active remote sensing (microwave data) over the passive one (optical data) are independent of all kinds of weather and can get usable data on rainy and cloudy days. Therefore, microwave spaceborne and airborne data can be applied for natural disaster applications such as flood and drought monitoring and management (Perrou et al., 2018). For intensive drought monitoring, ground survey and accuracy checking are conducted by using GNSS receiver for collecting the ground elevation, the unmanned boat with Echo-sounder also employed for measuring the water depth and reservoir floor elevation.

2 Literature Review Drought is a major natural disaster that creates a negative impact on socio-economic development and the environment. Drought information is important and required for government and local management (Park et al., 2016). Drought is a serious natural disaster that has adverse effects on the environment and human activities. The hydrological drought takes place because of streamflow scarcity when water demand for socio-economic activities is more than the water supply as agricultural dams and reservoirs.

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Reservoir management is necessary for drought

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monitoring because the reservoirs and dams reserve water from upstream to downstream for water resources (Peter et al., 2015). Satellite imagery is a single source of general information that can provide frequent, quick updates on reporting for natural disasters on a global scale, regional or national levels. Multisensor data can simplify implementation and monitoring that is consistent and comparable and can link hazards, risks, and climate (Petiteville, 2015).

2.1 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Data The SRTM data sets result from joint efforts of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) to generate a nearglobal digital elevation model (DEM) of Earth using radar interferometry. SRTM was the primary (and virtually only) payload on the STS-99 mission of the Space Shuttle Endeavour, which launched in 2000 and ﬂew for 11 days. NASA conducted an accuracy evaluation by collecting ground truth for the global validation and the results of this SRTM data as relative Height Root Mean Square (RMS) error as 8.7m for the Europe-Asia continent for testing accuracy of the data (Rodriguez et al., 2006). Since the continent-wide contains many countries that have not sufficient numbers of GPS benchmarks for different topographic conditions (Rodriguez et al., 2006), some similar studies have been conducted locally by using GPS with accuracy range from 0.5-10 m accuracy (Mukherjee et al., 2013).

SRTM elevation data on 22 February 2000 is available at a resolution of 30 x 30 m with map project as WGS84 and Earth Gravitational Model 1996 (EGM96) vertical (geoid) datum. The data was download at https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/srtmgl1v003 (Anantakarn et al., 2020). The SRTM Version 3.0 data have been improved over Version 2.0 of Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM) Version 2.0 and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010.

2.2 Optical Sensor as QuickBird Satellite Image (Google Earth Pro) The Google Earth (GE) Pro software tool has developed quickly and has been widely used in many sectors. The high spatial resolution images released from GE Pro., as a free and open data source, have provided great supports for the traditional land use land cover mapping. They have been either treated as ancillary data to collect the visualization for water area detection and validation or used as a visualization tool for water detection. The satellite image with the highest spatial resolution is QuickBird (QB) data. The QB image has four multispectral bands (red, green, blue, and near-infrared) and one panchromatic band, with a resolution of 2.62 m and 0.65 m, respectively (SIC, 2020).

2.3 Microwave Sensors as Sentinel 1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) The Sentinel-1A satellite was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and launched on 03 April 2014. Then, the Sentinel-1B was launched on 25 April 2016 with the C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) that can acquire data in all kinds of weather conditions. The availability of the new EO products, such as Sentinel-1A&B imagery, has the potential to facilitate flood and drought detection and monitoring of surface water changes because the data

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is dynamic in space and time (Bioresita et al., 2017). The Sentinel-1B Interferometric Wide swath mode is the wide operation mode for environmental monitoring and applications. This study uses Sentinel 1 data Interferometric Wide (IW) swath mode and level 1 with Ground Range Detected (GRD) products.

2.4 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver for Real-time Kinematic (RTK) Precise Positioning Data The GNSS receiver is now becoming a low-cost device, with a smartphone size, GNSS receiver can be used for land and water mapping and civil engineering works (Anantakarn and Witchayangkoon, 2019). Applying an external GNSS antenna (Witchayangkoon, 2000), the available GPS App, and RTK software on Android OS, the GNSS receiver is a now more and more popular solution, including real-time RTK positioning and data collection for PPK (Anantakarn et al., 2019). Virtual Reference Station (VRS) is simply a method of Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) correction that requires the rover to send a position to the VRS network; the network then creates a virtual base near to the rover that is used for correction. All the communication is using a radio signal or internet connection, and a radio signal has distance limitation which is replaced by internet communication. Therefore, the Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) in Thailand has established the CORS networks that provide VRS/RTK networks via an internet connection to the land surveyor for cadastral mapping and civil engineering development.

2.5 Echo-sounder Sensor for Bathymetric Data Collection In addition, unmanned surface vehicles (USV) are vehicles that operate on the surface of the water without a human operation for data acquisition. Because of the low-cost, easy, and capable features, so many unmanned surface vehicles have been developed and applied in many science and technology fields like geophysical exploration and environmental monitoring. A boat was developed as an unmanned operated boat that automatically navigated to selected destination points (Kaizu et al., 2011), the boat can measure the pollution of water such as dissolved oxygen and pH of the reservoir. The USV was designed as an automatic surface vehicle for coastal detection in taking photos (Subramanian et al., 2006). There was a GNSS system installing on the boat and a wireless internet connection for remotely controlling the system and navigating the vehicle. A single webcam camera is mounted in the front of the surface boat to assist in navigation. The images from the webcam camera provide a wide-angle view of the full image. An unmanned surface vehicle is called IRIS to survey pilot track lines for creating an environmental map of habitats in the bay of Florida, USA. The echo-sounder and topographic data were integrated for bathymetric mapping terrain analysis (Karim et al., 2017).

3 Methodology Remote sensing method as satellite image collection and GNSS technology with echosounder data can be applied for mapping of water area as presented in Figure 1. Different date of

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satellite images and field survey using echo-sounder with GNSS receiver is used for bathymetric mapping the Water area of the reservoir in Nakhon Nayok province. SRTM data GL3 collection

DEM import and analysist

Elevation contour and analysis

QuickBird data GE Pro.

Coordinate register Image enhancement

Image segmentation

SAR data Sentinel-1B

Geometric correction WGS84 UTM zone 47N

Digital value threshold selection

Ground survey data Water area change detection for identifying drought areas

Accuracy assessment Bathymetric mapping

GNSS data RTK mode

Echo-sounder data (USIBB)

Figure 1: The main Methodology of the study (Source: the author) In this study, we design and develop a floating boat Uthenthawai Smart IoT Bathymetry Boat (USIBB) is not required humans on the boat that has Echo-sounder and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) system for bathymetric surveying. Sentinel-1B SAR data were processed and analyzed by using free software ESA SeNtinel Applications Platform (SNAP) Version 8.0.5. Geographic Information System (GIS) data is analyzed and mapping by using Quantum GIS (QGIS) Version 3.14.

3.1 The Study Area The study area is Huai Prue reservoir in Nakhon Nayok province, located in the central area of Thailand. The reservoir is for agricultural irrigation. The site is 120 kilometers Northeast of Bangkok and has geographic coordinates Latitude 14°18'47.50"N and Longitude 101°13'08.80"E.

3.2 SRTM Topographic Data SRTM Version 3 elevation data dated 22 February 2000 is the free-of-charge data provided at https://e4ftl01.cr.usgs.gov/MEASURES/SRTMGL1.003/2000.02.11/SRTMGL1_page_1.html. The data has a resolution of 30m x 30m with the WGS84 map project and Earth Gravitational Model 1996

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(EGM96) vertical (geoid) datum. The data covers one degree of Latitude and Longitude, as a subset of the study area at Huai Prue agricultural reservoir.

(a) Sentinel-1B SAR full scene date 28 June 2021

(b) QuickBird image date 02 December 2019

（d）GNSS data RTK mode water area check (e) Echo-sounder data (USIBB) Figure 2: Multi-sensor data analysis for identifying the drought area.

3.3 Satellite image QuickBird Data The QuickBird (QB) data is a high spatial resolution image, released from GE Pro. The QB satellite image with the highest spatial resolution is a free and open data source, which has provided great supports for the traditional land use/cover mapping. The data is used for visualizing

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water area detection and validation or used as a visualization tool for land use/cover maps. This QB data of the Huai Prue reservoir is acquired on 02 December 2019 as shown in Figure 2(c).

3.4 Sentinel-1B Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel-1B Level-1 Ground Range Detected (GRD) products consist of focused SAR data that has been detected, multi-looked, and projected to ground range using an Earth ellipsoid model. The resulting product has approximately square spatial resolution pixels and square pixel spacing 10m by 10m with reduced speckle. The data is High Resolution for Interferometric Wide (IW) swath mode with vertical-transmit and vertical-receive (VV) polarization. The data acquisition is updated on 28 June 2021 and with the ground survey data collection on 25 June 2021 as displayed in Figure 2(a). The Sentinel-1B of Huai Prue reservoir Figure 2(b) can be downloaded at ESA Copernicus Open Access Hub at https://scihub.copernicus.eu/dhus/#/home.

Figure 3: Design and development of USIBB for Echo-sounder and GNSS data collection

3.5 GNSS Data RTK Mode for Water Area Measurement GNSS data RTK mode was recorded continuously for every 2 meters by walking on the bank of Huai Prue reservoir as presented in Figure 2(d). The GNSS data was at a precise level at Horizontal RMS less than 4cm by applying VRS/RTK networks provided by Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) facility CORS networks. The ground survey for GNSS data collection was on 25 June 2021, it can be the in-situ data as the ground survey was conducted on 25 June 2021 and Sentinel-1B SAR data was acquired on 28 June 2021.

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3.6 Echo-sounder Data for Bathymetric Mapping Uthenthawai Smart IoT Bathymetry Boat (USIBB) does not require humans on the boat that has Echo-sounder and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) system for bathymetric surveying (Jawak et al., 2015). The Smart IoT Boat consists of Sounder Equipment and GNSS receiver is integrated and installed as illustrated in Figure 3. The data were recorded at 5 seconds intervals while the boat run crossing the path on Huai Prue reservoir as shown in Figure 2(e). The ground survey for echo-sounder data collection was on 25 June 2021.

4 Result and Discussion Sentinel-1B SAR data were processed and analyzed by using free software ESA Sentinel Applications Platform (SNAP) Version 8.0.5. Geographic Information System (GIS) data is analyzed and mapping by using Quantum GIS (QGIS) Version 3.14.

4.1 Water area Detection from SRTM Topographic Data The STRM data is at a resolution of 30m x 30m with map project as WGS84 and Earth Gravitational Model 1996 (EGM96) vertical (geoid) datum. The data dated 22 February 2000 covers one degree of Latitude and Longitude. It was a subset of the study area at Huai Prue agricultural reservoir. The elevation contour lines were generated from the DEM (SRTM data) raster extraction with the interval of one-meter height value. And the water area as an area with s slope equal to zero was detected at the elevation level 44m as illustrated in Figure 4(a) and the 3D perspective view of the reservoir as shown in Figure 4(b). The result shows that the water surface area of Huai Prue reservoir is (980,230.980 m2) on 22 February 2000.

(a) Contour elevation at 44m SRTM data (b) Water area viewed in 3D perspective view Figure 4: Water surface area identification (980,230.980 m2) SRTM on 22 February 2000

4.2 Water Area Detection from QuickBird Data (GE Pro) QuickBird data is a high spatial resolution image which GoogleEarth Pro acquires from an optical satellite sensor on 02 December 2019. The data is exported from GoogleEarth Pro software and natural color composite as three colors as red, green, and blue bands. This image was georeferenced in WGS84 UTM zone 47N and processed by using QGIS Version 3.1 Software. To extract the water area, the function image segmentation is the plugin of Orfeo ToolBox. This

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function allows performing various segmentation algorithms on a simple and common image. Available segmentation algorithms of the Mean-Shift segmentation algorithm produce the water area as the classified image of unique labels that can be identified the segmented regions as shown in Figure 5(a). The raster image of segmentation was vectorized into polygon vector format for overlay with the original image. This process is applied for accuracy assessment by visualization of the vector polygon overlaying on the background image. In Figure 5(b), the reservoir was full water as we can see the water area result got its maximum area on 02 December 2019 as on the QuickBird image. The result of this process produces that polygon vector of the water surface of Huai Prue reservoir with the water area as 890,404.541 m2 on 02 December 2019.

(a) Raster image segmentation (b) Vectorized segmentation into polygon Figure 5: Water surface area identification (890,404.541 m2) from QuickBird image dated 02 December 2019.

4.3 Water Area Detection from Sentinel-1B SAR Data Sentinel-1B SAR, acquired on 28 June 2021, is in GRD product and swath mode IW that covers approximately 250km x 200km with vertical-transmit and vertical-receive (VV). The Sentinel-1B was a subset in the Huai Prue reservoir area and performed geometric correction with terrain data supported algorithm to the map project WGS 84 UTM zone 47N for further GIS analysis. SAR data were processed by using SNAP Ver 8.0.5 for geometry and radar backscatter analysis. The radiometric correct was analyzed for selection threshold from digital value. The water body is visually identified in the range 30-100 value as displayed in Figure 6. The threshold function is clustering all the pixels with digital value (DN) from 30 to 100 into one group as water area, and the pixel with DN value is out of this range as less than 30 or more than 100 DN value as non-water area. Then water area as resulted in the yellow polygons as showed in Figure 6. These polygons attracted from Sentinel-1B SAR data are then compared with the ground survey as GNSS data RTK measurement mode. In comparison with QuickBird image date 02 December 2019, this finding shows that the water availability was significantly reduced as it was detected on 28 June 2021. The analysis found that polygon vector of the water surface of Huai Prue reservoir with the water area as 480,274.065 m2 on 28 June 2021

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Figure 6: Histogram and threshold for identifying water surface area (480,274.065 m2) dated 28 June 2021 as in yellow polygons

4.4 Accuracy Assessment by Using Ground Survey Data The results of SRTM elevation, QuickBird image, and Sentinel-1B SAR data were compared to ground survey data with GNSS data RTK measurement mode and Echo-sounder of precise positioning and water depth data. As we apply the in-situ data as the ground survey was conducted on 25 June 2021 and Sentinel-1B SAR data acquired on 28 June 2021.

(a) Comparison of coordinate in North (b) Comparison of coordinate in East Figure 7: The correlation of positioning of Sentinel-1B SAR data and GNSS data RTK mode The accuracy of water area detection from Sentinel-1B SAR data can be assessed by overlaid its boundary and GNSS data as presented in Figure 8. The GNSS data is graphed in a red color line and the water area detected from Sentinel-1B SAR is plotted in a yellow color line.

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4.5 Bathymetric Map and Water Level Measurement by Using the Echo-sounder System Uthenthawai Smart IoT Bathymetry Boat (USIBB) is the system with integration of GNSS data RTK mode (RTSD reference network) and Echo-sounder to measure the water depth and the position height values to calculate the reservoir floor elevation. These data were recorded in the 5second intervals and the boat has traveled at the average speed of 0.7m/s with many crosses paths of Huai Prue reservoir. The reservoir floor values were recorded in elevation points (.csv format) and generated the bathymetric map by applying terrain analysis (GIS software). As triangulated irregular network (TIN) surface was generated for elevation map then elevation contour lines of the reservoir were generated as in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Bathymetric map with GNSS data RTK mode and Echo-sounder data.

5 Conclusion During recent years, droughts, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion are more frequent and severe that has adverse impacts on the economy. As the weather and hydrological conditions

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changes all the time, a single sensor cannot meet the requirement of disaster monitoring. Droughts can be monitored as the reservoir water levels can be detected by multi-sensor data. These data have come from satellite microwave sensors as SRTM and Sentinel-1B SAR data, an optical sensor is QuickBird image, ground survey data with Echo-sounder and GNSS data. The research provides a processing method for multi-sensor data integration for water area detection. The Sentinel-1B SAR data shows high accuracy and high correlations to coordinate positioning of GNSS data RTK mode and the correlation coefficients (R square) in linear regression is 0.9762 in North and 0.9879 in East. Water area identification on 22 February 2000 (SRTM data) as 980,230.980 m2 that can be detected as 890,404.541 m2 on 02 December 2019. This area is reduced to 480,274.065 m2 on 28 June 2012 as analyzed on Sentinel-1B SAR data with a ground survey with Echo-sounder and GNSS data. The topographic map of these changes is plotted for accuracy and visualization assessment. The research also demonstrates the free data sources and free software function for remote sensing and GIS analysis.

6 Availability of Data and Material Raw data and analysis data can be provided upon contacting the corresponding authors

7 Acknowledgment This research is financially supported by the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Rajamangala University of Technology Tawan-ok.

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Petiteville, I., Ward, S., Dyke, G., Steventon, M., Harry, J. (2015). Satellite Earth Observation in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction. Special 2015 WCDRR Edition, European Space Agency (ESA), 84p. Rodriguez, E., Morris, C., and Eric Belz, J. (2006). A Global Assessment of the SRTM Performance. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 72(3), 249–260. SIC (2020). Satellite Imaging Corporation. https://www.satimagingcorp.com/satellite-sensors/quickbird/ Subramanian, A., Xiaojin, G., Wyatt, C.L., Stilwell, D. (2006). Shoreline Detection in Images for Autonomous Boat Navigation. Signals, Systems and Computers, 2006. ACSSC'06. Fortieth Asilomar Conference, Pacific Grove, CA, USA., 1, 999-1003. Witchayangkoon, B. (2000). Elements of GPS Precise Point Positioning. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Maine, USA. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3282.6402 YongJin, Y. (2020). History of Drought in Thailand. https://borgenproject.org/ drought-in-thailand/ Tanapat Virit is a Lecturer at the Department of Construction Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering. He received a scholarship to pursue a Master’s degree study in Civil Engineering at Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus. His research focuses on the area of GPS/GNSS and Spatial Technology. Dr. Kritsada Anantakarn is a Lecturer at the Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from the Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering, and a Master’s degree in of Urban and Environmental Planning from King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, and his PhD from Thammasat University. He is interested in GPS/GNSS and spatial technology. Dr. Rerkchai Fooprateepsiri is an Associate Professor and President of the Rajamangala University of Technology Tawanok's. He got his Master’s degree in Computer Engineering. He earned his PhD in Information Technology both from the Mahanakorn University of Technology. His research focuses on Computer Engineering, Computer Vision, and Data Analysis.

Dr. Wunchock Kroehong is a Lecturer at the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architectures, Rajamongala University of Technology Tawan-ok, Uthenthawai Campus, Thailand. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering (Civil Engineering) from the Faculty of Engineering Rajamangala Institute of Engineering, and a Master’s degree from the school of Civil Engineering at the Mahanakorn University of Technology, and his Ph.D. from the Suranaree University of Technology. He is interested in Concrete, Geopolymer, and Durability. Dr. Boonsap Witchayangkoon is an Associate Professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat University. He received his B.Eng.(Honors) from King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi. He continued his Ph.D. study at the University of Maine, USA, where he obtained his Ph.D. in Spatial Information Science & Engineering. His research encompasses Emerging Technology to Civil Engineering Applications.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Impacts of Remote Working on Employees During the COVID-19 Pandemic Omar A. Baakeel1* Department of Human Resources Management, College of Business at Alkamil, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, SAUDI ARABIA. *Corresponding Author (Email: obaakeel@uj.edu.sa). 1

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10G

This study investigates the impacts and influences of remote working on employees during the coronavirus pandemic, in terms of Received 21 May 2021 Received in revised form 14 communication, job effectiveness, and employee engagement and July 2021 productivity. Data were collected from participants from different sectors Accepted 19 July 2021 and industries in three regions in Saudi Arabia. The study’s findings revealed Available online 28 July that remote working significantly impacted communication, job 2021 effectiveness, and employee productivity. However, the impacts of remote Keywords: working on employee engagement were insignificant which could be a result Job effectiveness; of neglecting activities that encourage employee engagement by the Employee engagement; organization because of the nature of working remotely. This research Employee productivity; COVID-19 teleworking; presents two contributions. First, this article enhances the literature on remote working and employees during crises or pandemics. Second, it reveals Work from home that remote working could be applied to run daily operations when (WHM); Employee working at home; Online implementing the appropriate strategies and infrastructure. Volume 12 Issue 10

Cite This Article: Baakeel, O. A. (2021). Impacts of Remote Working on Employees During the COVID-19 Pandemic. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10G, 1-14. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.196

1 Introduction Remote working (RW) is considered a new trend that has changed the concept of what is usually called traditional work. Due to the coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19) - an infectious disease that attacks an individual’s respiratory system - discovered at the end of 2019, many businesses were closed or were run using the concept of remote working. The invasion of COVID-19 has changed and empowered the trend and phenomena of RW. Before the pandemic, some organizations ran their operations using RW. However, after the pandemic, organizations that did not have infrastructure capable of transforming from physical work to virtual or distance

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work faced enormous challenges. Furthermore, organizations with RW infrastructure issues may face other obstacles concerning employee productivity or performance during RW. Working in an office or being physically able to complete tasks and finish projects has been the accepted way for most organizations. According to Hatch (2006), remote working is defined as completing the work or tasks in a place that is not physical. Furthermore, Di Martino and Wirth (1990) define RW as flexible work that allows employees to complete their tasks and responsibilities away from a physical location without direct contact with other employees. However, employees can still communicate with others using any technology means; RW means that work or tasks can be completed using online communication, including cloud, internet, or virtual. RW is considered a recent and ongoing trend to complete tasks and projects from home while achieving a work-life balance. RW could help individuals who cannot travel from home to a work location. Furthermore, it helps women who prefer to work from home, and may not want to work in a male/female environment.

Khalifa and Davison (2000) indicated that RW was preferred and suitable for

employees whose location was distanced from the organization and who were familiar with RW and able to work independently. Kossek and Lautsch (2018) emphasize that RW was widely used by organizations.

Nield (2016) distinguished between employees working in an office and those

working from a distance as the latter being happier and more productive. In addition, Anderson and Kelliher (2020) consider RW as a working method that enables employees to manage and control their organization’s activities and personal tasks more than in traditional working conditions. According to Nilles (1994), completing tasks or job activities in a place other than a physical, standard office is considered remote working. Gajendran and Harrison (2007) classified remote working as distributed work, defined as the ability to share tasks among employees away from the normal worksite. In addition, they categorized distributed work as telecommuting work and telework or remote work. Ellison (2004) explained telecommuting as accomplishing work activities without traveling from home to work, meaning consuming less traveling time. Stable (2001) stated that telecommuting is considered a type of remote work where employees finish their job tasks from home. In addition, Madsen (2011) stated that if work and job tasks were performed using technology and communication to bring tasks to employees, this is considered telecommuting. Garrett and Danziger (2007) emphasized that telework occurs when the four dimensions exist: information, technology, time, and employment diversity.

Nilles (1994) added that when

employees communicate and complete tasks using some sort of technology and are away from the worksite, this is also referred to as telework. Fitzer (1997) explained that telework means using technology to help employees complete their tasks away from their usual physical work environment. The concepts of telework, work from home, and telecommuting have been used interchangeably in research. For this paper, the author will use remote working (RW), also emphasized by Parris (2017) as the term most preferred by organizations.

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2 Literature Review The current literature review highlights RW as means of working from places other than the typical environment setting or running a business from home or virtually (Gajendran et al., 2014; Allen et al., 2015; Mana and Holdsworth 2003).

Remote working which considers as an

independent variable in this study involves different meanings, and researchers have used this term to mean telework, telecommuting, work from home, flexible work, and distance work. However, in this study, the use of RW will be based on the definition of US office Personal Management (2013) as conditions where the employee can work and operate at a location other than the corporation’s physical worksite. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home or remotely was not widely considered by global organizations as a means of running a business and daily operations. In other words, organizations that depend on running their business using virtual methods were suddenly using remote working in their operations. After the COVID-19 pandemic, organizations were forced to transfer from a physical work environment to remote working to survive. For an alternative definition of RW, Olsan (1983) defines it as operating an organization’s tasks and daily activities outside the normal setting. Furthermore, Bao et al. (2020) define RW as a method or way for a worker to complete their tasks, not in their usual place.

2.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of RW Before the COVID-19 pandemic, working remotely was a way for small businesses and organizations depending on RW to complete day-to-day activities to operate effectively. It was not considered for many organizations as a strategy that a company should shift to or depend on. However, after the onset of COVID-19, the perception shifted almost entirely for some organizations to adapt or even implement different strategies or policies for RW as an essential element for the organization to continue running and managing its business or even to survive. A review of the literature illustrates some of the benefits or advantages of using RW. Gajendran et al. (2014) stated that one of the most obvious advantages is flexibility. Mann and Holdsworth (2003) conclude that managing employees’ tasks and time at their own pace makes flexibility an important advantage of RW. Furthermore, Khalifa and Davison (2000) stated that RW could reduce organization costs in maintaining the organization’s work environment and the urge to improve the company location. Another advantage of RW, as stated by Hunton and Norman (2010), is that employee commitment to the organization tends to be higher among remote workers than employees who work at a physical location. Gajendran et al. (2014), added that RW provides employees with a better opportunity to practice autonomy.

2.2 Disadvantages of RW Regardless of the many benefits of RW, there are some drawbacks. Knowledge is one of the most critical assets for an organization. Sharing knowledge and information face to face when working in a normal environment might be easy. However, using and transferring knowledge might be at risk (Taskin and Bridoux 2010). Furthermore, transferring knowledge among employees

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virtually might affect the overall organization’s performance (Cascio and Aguinis 2008). Another disadvantage of RW is isolation. A normal working environment setting increases the friendship and social interaction between employees, which might increase the organization’s overall performance. In contrast, RW increases social isolation practices (Feldman and Gainey 1997); individuals prefer a normal working setting to decrease social isolation and promote friendships (Sias et al. 2012). Another disadvantage of RW is the status quo or social statuses such as managers, chief executive officers (CEO) or department heads or other senior job statuses might be less noticeable when utilizing RW compared to a normal work setting where an employee has a physical office. In addition, RW increases professional isolation as an employee becomes less noticeable in their career (Bailey and Kurland 2002). Another significant disadvantage of RW that might have been very noticeable during the COVID-19 pandemic is the separation between job tasks and family life. Employees might find it difficult to focus on completing and attending meetings while working remotely and at the same time facing the pressure from the family to finish and respond to its needs and demands. Furthermore, Hill et al. (1998) emphasize that since an employee is working remotely, they are always available, which in turn increases working hours. Finally, Bailey and Kurland (2002) explain that working in a physical environment allows employers to notice and evaluate employee performance; however, when an employee is working remotely, the performance of that employee might be hard to notice, and tasks and activities might be completed with the least amount of effort.

3 Dependent Variables 3.1 Employee Productivity Employee productivity has been an ongoing issue for organizations in a normal work environment. However, issues with employee productivity may increase during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the dependability or transformation of the daily business operation. In addition, employee productivity depends on the organization’s work environment; when employees are comfortable and motivated, their productivity increases (Oloke et al., 2017). In other words, an unproductive employee could affect the organization’s overall performance. In addition, Rahmawati (2013) stated that to sustain employee productivity, the organization must pay close attention to its compensation policies, strategies, and work environment. Productivity is observed in a typical work setting. However, with the appearance of COVID-19 and the events that followed, such as an enforced curfew and mandatory stay-at-home policy, organizations were forced to run their business remotely and, in some cases, change or adapt the current infrastructure to survive. Therefore, the productivity issue became critical to managing with coronavirus still prevalent and health issues being updated frequently. According to Hong et al. (1995), productivity means utilizing an organization’s material to produce value. Productivity is the indicator of an employee’s functions, roles, and performance in the organization. Brinkerhoff and Dressler (1990) explained that productivity contains input, output, results, and process. In addition, Brochner (2017) clarifies

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that productivity nowadays is difficult for employers, employees, and organizations to maintain a regular work setting. Eversole et al. (2012) describe the difference between an employee working in a physical office compared to an employee working remotely; they stated that employees working virtually could be more productive and motivated to work because they can work when they feel more productive using a flexible schedule. Sauermann (2016) described that an organization can measure an employee’s productivity using the employee’s performance, which means that the organization should design an appropriate work schedule to improve productivity. RW allows the employee to work when they feel comfortable and as a result, they could be more productive. However, this will depend on the organization’s policies and strategies when it comes to utilizing RW. Based on the explanation, this study has the hypothesis, H#1: RW significantly impacts the productivity of the employee during the COVID-19 pandemic.

3.2 Employee Engagement One of the most important concepts for an employee to feel connected to the organization is engagement. Mone and London (2018) emphasize that there are several elements an employee should have to be considered as an engaged employee. These characteristics are involvement, empowerment, passion, and commitment. Further, Lockwood (2007) considers that a company’s success and accomplishment of its goals and objectives is when the employees are engaged. Equally important, Vance (2006) illustrated that part of employee engagement is how the organization implements human resource management practices such as benefits, training, job design, recruitment, and selection. Bates (2004) added that employee engagement predicts worker outcome and organization achievement. Another aspect of employee engagement during crises or changes faced is to inform employees about the phase of changing processes so they feel responsible and part of the change (Whyte 2015). Bate (2004) finds that employee engagement is decreasing in organizations. Anand (2020) explained that there are four methods to apply for employee engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic: perception, appreciation, understanding employee needs, and effective communication. Moreover, Talukdar (2020) added flexible working hours, virtual online teams, and community.

Vickers (2019) emphasizes that employee engagement

should be utilized in both positive and difficult times. Deal et al. (2010) added that employers should consider providing employees with benefits and a well-paid salary during rough times to keep employees engaged and committed to the organization. The clarification produces the second hypothesis, H#2: RW significantly impacts employee engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic.

3.3 Communication Communication can be described as one of the most important aspects of two people talking to understand each other or one person explaining something to another person. However, it becomes a crucial issue when it comes to effective communication or employee communication in an organization (Holtzhausen 2002). In 1992, Grunig stated that employee communication must be

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well practiced for an organization to be successful. In addition, the lockdown of businesses and countries all over the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic increased the use of technology platforms. As Miller (2009) emphasized, employee communication has increased due to the increase of new technology and as a result increased the organization’s overall communication adaption. Equally important, Macey and Schneider (2006) extrapolated that employee performance and productivity can increase by using suitable communication when introducing or applying new processes or policies. Effective communication within an organization depends on the selection of communication tools and methods (Kalla, 2005). Face-to-face communication is considered widespread in a traditional work setting and allows the individual to understand verbal and nonverbal messages. Begley (2004) added that face-to-face communication is considered a powerful tool when communication takes place among individuals. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus of communication shifted from face-to-face to online communication. Jonassen and Kwon (2001) state that online communication can help solve problems and complete job activities when applied correctly. Online communication includes email, video conference, and virtual-based work settings (Adams and Calanes 2009). Given the above explanation, the third hypothesis is: H#3: RW significantly impacts communication among employees during the COVID-19 pandemic.

3.4 Job Effectiveness There are different definitions of job effectiveness. According to Jex (1998) job effectiveness explains the degree of the employee’s work performance and involves completing tasks on time. Job effectiveness deals with procedures that provide results as anticipated on time. Butler, Aasheim, and Williams (2007) emphasized the benefits of job effectiveness on employees and employers when focusing on remote working to complete tasks and activities. In addition, Kanter (1979) emphasized the importance of the work environment on job effectiveness. The work environment and infrastructure can affect the job effectiveness of working in a physical setting location as opposed to a virtual setting. In addition, Van der Meulen (2017) asserted that job effectiveness can be increased when utilizing remote working strategies when at home or places other than the office, which has a suitable environment and less distraction. Baruch (2002) stated that job effectiveness might be obtained by using a combination of self-confidence, communication skills, and self-motivation. These three elements might be necessary when working remotely. Furthermore, Grant, Wallace, and Spurgeon (2013) articulate that employees who work virtually should obtain specific soft and hard skills that help in achieving organization goals for completing tasks as required. The fourth hypothesis is H#4: RW significantly impacts job effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

4 Methodology The study aims to examine the impact of RW on employees when it comes to employee productivity, employee engagement, communication, and job effectiveness. The data was collected using a questionnaire designed and distributed using Google Docs tools through cell phone

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applications, from April to mid-May 2021. Most of the data came from three regions in Saudi Arabia: the central, western, and eastern regions. Participants were selected randomly. The questionnaire contained three sections; the first section focused on demographic data. The second section was about the independent variable (RW) and the third section contained questions about the four dependent variables (employee productivity, employee engagement, communication, and job effectiveness). The purpose of the content validity test is to verify that the measure used in the research consists of an appropriate and descriptive set of elements that focused on the perception of the research. Thus, the questionnaire was assessed by a group of professors in the field. After that, the questionnaire was revised, and each of the independent and dependent variables had seven questions. A five-point Likert scale was utilized as followed: 1 (strongly disagree), 2 (disagree), 3 (neither disagree nor agree), 4 (agree), and 5 (strongly agree). A total of 57 surveys were returned.

5 Results Table 1 showed that the number of employees from the public sector was 35 (61.4%) and the number from the private sector was 22 (38.6%). The number of male participants in the study was 33 (57.9%) compared to the number of female participants which was 24 (42.1%). Out of the 57 participants in this study, 22 (38.6%) were aged from 36-40 years. It also can be noted from Table 1 that 35 (61.4 %) participants work at an educational job and 20 (35.1%) worked at a managerial job. Table 1: Characteristics of participants No. 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2

Characteristics Frequency Gender Male 33 Female 24 Job title Faculty member 30 Teacher 1 School Deputy 1 Manager 1 Employee 24 Age Under 30 years old 7 30 - 35 years old 11 36 - 40 years old 22 Above 40 years old 17 Job nature Educational 35 Managerial 20 Technical 2 Sector Public 35 Private 22

% 57.9 42.1 52.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 42 12.3 19.3 38.6 29.8 61.4 35.1 3.5 61.4 38.6

5.1 Model Estimation A partial least squares (PLS) approach has been employed to analyze the data and test the hypothesis (Ringle et al., 2014). The major reasons for using the PLS approach are the latent nature of this study’s constructs as well as the small sample size and the ability to use one independent variable and multiple dependent variables (Hair et al., 2014). Hair et al. (2005) clarified that a

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sample size between 50-400 respondents is considered adequate and acceptable. The latest guideline proposed by (Hair et al. 2019) was considered for the assessment of measurement and structural models.

5.2 Measurement Model Assessment The measurement model assessment is based on the confirmation of reliability, internal consistency reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity (Hair et al. 2019).

The

reliability of the items was tested by examining the outer loadings of the items, i.e., the correlations between each item and the constructs (Hair et al. 2018). The internal consistency reliability values predicted by Cronbach’s alpha (CA) and composite reliability (CR) were used to assess the degree to which items were free from random error and, therefore, allowed to yield consistent results. The CA values ranged from 0.66-0.88 (Table 2), fitting within the acceptable range for the CA. The CR of the five constructs was found to range from 0.79-0.90, which also meets the threshold. Table 2 thus demonstrates that the CA and CR values are acceptable. Table 2: Construct Reliability and Validity Results Variables Cronbach’s Alpha Rho_A CR Communication 0.66 0.74 0.79 Job Effectives 0.80 0.82 0.86 Employees 0.88 0.89 0.90 Engagement Employees Productivity 0.76 0.86 0.85 Remote Working 0.69 0.71 0.81 AVE: Average variance extracted; CR: Composite reliability

AVE 0.50 0.51 0.57 0.58 0.52

The average variance extracted (AVE) is used to evaluate convergent validity. Convergent validity assesses the consistency across multiple constructs. In Table 2, all values were within the recommended threshold of 0.5 and thus had convergent validity according to Hair et al. (2014). Table 3: Heterotrait-Monotrait Ratio of Correlations (HTMT). Communication Communication Job Effectiveness Employee Engagement Employee Productivity Remote Working

Job Effectiveness

Employee Engagement

0.65 0.44

0.38

0.59

0.49

0.88

0.90

0.68

0.61

Employee Productivity

Remote Working

0.76

For testing discriminant validity, which examines the extent to which different constructs diverge from one another, the study used the Heterotrait-Monotrait ratio of correlations (HTMT) (Hair et al., 2019). An HTMT value that exceeds 0.9 indicates an issue of discriminant validity. As shown in Table 3, all HTMT values of the constructs were 0.9 and below, which means that the discriminant validity has been established.

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5.3 Structural Model Assessment Once the reliability and validity of the variables are established in a structural model, the next step is the assessment of the structural or inner model. As suggested by Hair et al, (2019), to analyze the structural model, 𝑹𝑹𝟐𝟐 values, the path coefficients’ statistical significance, and the effect

sizes 𝒇𝒇𝟐𝟐 should be considered. First, 𝑅𝑅2 result checks for the degree of variance explained by the

independent variable (RW) as shown in Table 4. Based on the 𝑅𝑅2 results, the RW explained 42% of

the variance in communication. For the job effectiveness, the RW explains 30% of the variance. The

employee engagement variance was explained by 54% and 34% of the variance in employee productivity was explained by RW. In fact, according to Hair et al., (2019), values of 0.75, 0.50, and 0.25 indicate substantial, moderate, and weak explanations of variance, respectively. Therefore, as shown in Table 4, the variance in the dependent variables explained by RW gathered around the moderate range. Table 4: R-squared result (𝑅𝑅 2 ) 𝑹𝑹𝟐𝟐 0.42 0.30 0.54 0.34

Variables Communication Job Effectiveness Employee Engagement Employee Productivity

Second, the significance levels of path coefficients indicate that at p ≤ 0.05 RW significantly impacted communication, job effectiveness, and employee productivity. However, RW has insignificant impacts on employee engagement. Therefore, the hypothesis of communication, job effectiveness, and employee productivity were accepted. On the other hand, the employee engagement hypothesis was rejected as shown in Table 5. Table 5: Model Path Coefficients & Significance Path Remote working  Communication Remote working  Job Effectiveness Remote working  Employees Engagement Remote working  Employee Productivity

Original sample 0.51 0.49 0.08 0.58

Sample mean

P-value

0.53 0.50 0.06 0.59

0.13 0.16 0.13 0.08

4.01 3.01 0.62 7.70

0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00

𝒇𝒇𝟐𝟐

0.30 0.22 0.00 0.51

Third, to examine the effect size, the study calculated Cohen’s 𝑓𝑓2 -values of the variables as

shown in Table 5. The effect sizes of RW on communication, job effectiveness, and employee productivity were (0.30,0.22, and 0.51 respectively) greater than the 0.02 threshold except for employee engagement (0.00) which was less than 0.02. The effect size of RW on employee productivity is a large effect (since it’s higher than 0.35), the effect size of RW on communication and job effectiveness is considered as medium effect (since it’s higher than 0.15 but lower than 0.35), and there is no effect size of RW on employee engagement since it is less than 0.02 (Cohen 1988). The hypotheses testing is summarized in Table 6.

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Table 6: Hypotheses Testing Results Hypotheses H#1: RW  Employee Productivity H#2: RW  Employee Engagement H#3: RW  Communication H#4: RW  Job Effectiveness

Path Coefficients 0.58 0.08 0.51 0.49

t 7.70 0.62 4.01 3.01

Results Accepted Rejected Accepted Accepted

6 Discussion This study investigates the impact of RW on employee productivity, employee engagement, communication, and job effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study showed that RW had a statistically significant impact on three variables: employee productivity, communication, and job effectiveness. However, the influence of RW was insignificant when it comes to employee engagement. Working remotely made practicing employee engagement less significant since the employees were not engaged with co-workers and the practices of loyalty might have decreased when working remotely. Working physically in a normal environment might increase the chances of practicing the concept of employee engagement. On the other hand, employee productivity, communication, and job effectiveness were significant with RW. That means employee productivity, communication, and job effectiveness increased when working remotely or were not affected when working remotely and were significant. In this study, RW impacted employee productivity significantly supporting the finding of studies by (Butler et al 2007; Fujii, 2020). RW made it easy for employees to practice and complete their tasks and achieve corporate objectives. The study result revealed that RW impacted the job effectiveness significantly, supporting the finding of Van der Meulen (2017) who emphasized that job effectiveness using the concept of remote working could be increased when using the appropriate strategies and infrastructure. When it comes to communication, the study found that RW significantly impacted communication. This finding did not align with the finding of Ean (2010), which found that face-to-face communication is more effective than online communication. In addition, a study done by Flores (2019) found that communication is one of the most challenging factors when it comes to remote working. The most important finding of this study is that RW did not impact employee engagement and was not significant as employee engagement needs specific strategies and procedures to be utilized by the company. Talukdar (2020) provided methods to increase employee engagement during the COVID19 pandemic. These methods are strong communication channels, flexibility, virtual community, team activities, and instant appreciation. Anand (2020) added appreciation, acknowledgment of employees, and video conferencing.

7 Conclusion The purpose of this study was to examine the impact or the influence of RW on employees when it comes to employee productivity, employee engagement, communication, and job effectiveness. The results of the study revealed that RW significantly impacted employee productivity, communication, and job effectiveness. This showed that RW increased the productivity of the employees and communication was not an issue when working remotely and the

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effectiveness of the job increased using an RW concept. On the other hand, RW impacts on employee engagement were insignificant; RW decreased employee engagement and the organizations did not use methods to increase the practice and application of employee engagement. The article provides insight for the company when applying and designing RW strategies and objectives especially since the RW concept will be used more widely because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study provides several recommendations, 1- Organizations should consider designing work in a way that can be done remotely and provide the necessary technology, platform, and online security to complete the tasks and activities. 2- Organizations should implement the appropriate policies and procedures for the task to be easily assessed and completed so employee performance can be appraised accordingly. 3- Organizations should focus on utilizing strategies and policies to increase employee engagement.

8 Availability of Data and Material All information is included in this study.

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Rahmawati D. (2013). The effect of motivation on the work productivity of employees of Pr Fajar Berlian Tulungagung. Journal of Tulungagung Bonorowo University, 1(1), 1-16. Ringle C, Da Silva D and Bido D. (2014). Structural equation modeling with the SmartPLS. Brazilian Journal of Marketing, 13(2), 56-73. Sauermann J. (2016). Performance measures and worker productivity: choosing the right performance measures can inform and improve decision-making in policy and management. IZA World of Labor 260, 323-339. Sias PM, Pedersen H, Gallagher EB and Kopaneva I. (2012). Workplace friendship in the electronically connected organization. Human Communication Research, 38(3), 253-279. Stable DS. (2001). A study of remote workers and their differences from non-remote workers. Journal of Organizational and End User Computing, 13(2), 3-14. Talukdar AD. (2020). 5 tips for practicing employee engagement amidst the covid-19 pandemic. Business 2 Community. Https://Www.Business2community.Com/Human-Resources/5-Tips-For-Practicing-EmployeeEngagement-Amidst-The-Covid-19-Pandemic-02300396 . (Accessed January 2021). Taskin L and Bridoux F. (2010). Telework: a challenge to knowledge transfer in organizations. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 21(13), 2503-2520. Vance RJ. (2006). Employee engagement and commitment: a guide to understanding, measuring, and increasing engagement in your organization. SHRM Foundation, Virginia. Van der Meulen D. (2017). Does working really work? RSM Discovery-Management Knowledge, 29(1), 20-22. Vickers M. (2019). Boosting worker engagement in tough times. American Management Association. https://www.amanet.org/articles/boosting-worker-engagement-in-tough-times/ (Accessed January 2021). Whyte

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Dr. Omar A. Baakeel is an Assistant Professor at the University of Jeddah. He holds a Doctorate in Public Administration from the University of La Verne, California, USA. His research focuses on Human Resources Management and Public Administration.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

The Significance of Retained-Earnings-based Firm Valuation Model During Military Regime Era in Pakistan Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi1*, Muhammad Yar Khan2, Naeem Ullah3, Mehboob Ahmad4, Syed Mutahir Hussain Shah5 Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, Foundation University Islamabad, Rawalpindi Campus, PAKISTAN. 2 Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus, PAKISTAN. 3 Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, Foundation University Islamabad, Rawalpindi Campus, PAKISTAN. 4 Department of Management Sciences, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology (SZABIST), Islamabad Campus, PAKISTAN. 5 Institute of Business & Management, University of Engineering & Technology (UET), Lahore, PAKISTAN. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +923335438187, Email: dr.alitirmizi@fui.edu.pk) 1

Paper ID: 12A10H

Abstract

An empirical evaluation of the adopted but a modified version of the firm valuation equation has been conducted to test the retained Received 02 May 2021 earnings-based firm valuation model including retained earnings, firm Received in revised form 10 July 2021 value, and shareholders’ wealth as variables. The impact of retained earnings Accepted 24 July 2021 on firm value and shareholders’ wealth as well as firm value on shareholders' Available online 29 July wealth has been evaluated by using primary data collected randomly from 85 2021 listed manufacturing firms using a questionnaire. The alpha score of .866 has Keywords: been generated relating constructs of the research instrument. Furthermore, Retained earnings; Firm factor analysis and ordinary least squares regression has been used to test value; Shareholders' study hypotheses. Study findings suggested that retained earnings have wealth; Investment; played a vital role in the expansion activities and benefited sample firms in Reinvestment; Listed achieving desired growth. Moreover, the value of sample firms enhanced and manufacturing firms; shareholders’ wealth maximized due to investment and reinvestment of Pervez Musharraf era. retained earnings in value-enhancing projects. Thus, results have applauded the Musharraf government and concomitantly validated the strength of retained earnings-based firm valuation model. Volume 12 Issue 10

Cite This Article: Tirmizi, S. M. A., Khan, M. Y., Ullah, N., Ahmad, M., Shah, S. M. H. (2021). The Significance of Retained Earnings Based Firm Valuation Model during Military Regime Era in Pakistan. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10H, 1-11. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.197

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1 Introduction General Pervez Musharraf, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) toppled the elected Government of the Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif on 12 October 1999 and took charge of the federation of Pakistan as President after the national general elections which were held on 12 October 2002. Consequently, according to Indurthy (2004), the Bush administration had selected and embraced General Musharraf and supported his regime with huge economic largesse despite the fact that the aftermath was unfavorable and unpopular among the masses, “the people”. This dramatic change of leadership, the military form of the elected government in Pakistan calls for formal financial analyses of investment and reinvestment activities of manufacturing companies listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE) (earlier was Karachi Stock Exchange) during this period. The era of General Pervez Musharraf's regime was during 1999-2008 and after the national elections of 2008, a new democratic government of the Pakistan Peoples Party was formulated and democratic norms of governance were revived in the country. Therefore, in this regard, it’s imperative to test empirically the significance of retained earnings (i.e., investment and reinvestment of retained capital by listed firms) that could enhance the value or otherwise in the economy. Here, emphasis is on the evaluation of the productive use of 77% retained capital by listed manufacturing firms in Pakistan. Evidently, the problem of low dividend payout by firms in Pakistan reported by Mehar (2007) indicates that in Pakistan payment of dividends equals 23% of the incremental profits of the firms. It shows that 77% of incremental profits have been retained by the firms in the country. Hence the formulated research question of the study is; what is the significance and effect of retained earnings on the value of the listed manufacturing firms; and how retained earnings are affecting shareholders' wealth when firms are retaining a higher level of funds for investment and reinvestment activities in Pakistan? Therefore, to evaluate the significance of retained earnings-based firm valuation model in Pakistan, the firm valuation equation (under no brokerage commission) derived by Sethi and Taksar (2002) has been adopted and modified to address the optimal financing problem of infinite horizon corporation. In this study, the impact of retained earnings on firm value and further on the impact of firm value on shareholders' wealth has empirically been examined in the non-contrived business environment of Pakistan. The research problem evaluated in this study cover General Pervez Musharraf’s era of government in Pakistan. The major findings of the study suggest that retained earnings-based firm valuation model significantly explained the variance created by retained earnings on the firm value and shareholders’ wealth. It means that investment and reinvestment activities undertaken during the era 2000 to 2009 by the sample firms have maximized the value of the firms as well as the wealth of the shareholders. Thus, investment and reinvestment of 77% of retained earnings by the sample firms in Pakistan facilitated them in achieving the wealth maximization goal of the shareholders during the regime of General Pervez Musharraf.

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1 Literature Review 1.1 Retention Policy (Retained Earnings) Rozeff (1982) indicated that fast-growing firms reduce their dependence on external equity financing by paying lower dividends to the shareholders and specified growth as negatively related to dividend payout (Donati, 2016). Earlier, Myers and Majluf (1984) formulated the Pecking Order Theory for capital structure and categorized sources of financing used by the firms that prefer retained earnings as their main source of funds for investment. The second preference was debt and the third was external equity financing by the firm. Sethi and Taksar (2002) attempted to solve the optimal financing problem of an infinite horizon corporation and their work comprehensively addressed the value function of the firm by taking into account retained earnings and external equity as sources of financing and thus solved the optimal financing problem. Furthermore, Jones and Sharma (2001) examined the association of investment opportunity set and corporate policy of listed firms in Australia and found a negative association of debt to equity ratio to dividend yield relating the investment opportunity set seeking higher growth had been endorsed by Bambang, et al. (2019). Accordingly, Bhattacharyya et al. (2008) found a negative association between dividend payout and earnings retention and a positive association between earnings retention (retained earnings) and capital expenditure, much of the studies supported it, including the studies of (Masso and Merikull, 2011; Alves, 2018; Ball, et al. 2020). Moreover, Chen (2008) concluded that under an effective corporate governance system new US economy firms retained higher levels of cash to fund available growth opportunities.

1.2 Firm Value Gentry et al. (2003) introduced a comprehensive integrated valuation model known as a firm’s intrinsic value estimation system which was useful in forecasting a firm’s value and could access the financial health of the firm by using the available financial statements data of the firms. Consequently, Trundle (2005) argued that corporate real estate operational strategy should be formulated in order to maximize the market value of the firm where the corporate real estate appraisal process needs to be divided into investment and financing decisions (Wang and Choi, 2015). Furthermore, Nappi et al. (2009) reported an increased amount of corporate real estate assets ownership by French listed firms which had used ‘EVA’ and ‘MVA’ methodologies. Factually, the socially responsible investments had resulted in significantly enhanced firm value due to responsible capital allocation by global institutions which were governed by vibrant shareholders (Martínez et al., 2013; Lee et al., 2015; Dogru and Sirakaya-Turk, 2017; Ball et al. (2020); Zhang and Zi, 2021).

1.3 Shareholders’ Wealth La-Porta et al. (2000) stated that the model of dividend policy established based on an effective legal rights protection system for the minority shareholders ensured higher dividend payout. Subsequently, Jensen (2001) criticized stakeholder theory as well as the balance scorecard

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approach of firm performance measurement because both of these create distortions in valuation mechanism and favor self-interested managers to use firm’s resources for empire-building on the cost of firm and shareholders’ value maximization goal. However, McCarthy (2004) linked shareholder wealth maximization with effective and efficient use of value management methods by the firm management that could eliminate conflicts of interest between principal and agent. Accordingly, Lindholm et al. (2006) formulated a ‘Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM)’ model that added value to a non-real estate firm’s core business through a strategic management framework that enhanced firm value and maximized shareholders’ wealth. Conversely, Baker et al. (2007) surveyed dividend policies of Canadian firms and identified the relevance of dividend policy toward value creation of the firm as well as maximization of shareholders wealth (Bosch-Badia et al., 2014; Baldwin and Alhalboni, 2020; Wei and Zhou, 2020).

2 Research Model Development We have developed a research model based on the work of Sethi and Taksar (2002) who had mathematically solved the optimal financing problem of an infinite horizon corporation by categorizing firms’ earnings levels. The mathematical equation derived by Sethi and Taksar under no brokerage cost condition took the form 𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) =

𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

+ 𝑥𝑥 − 𝑥𝑥 ∗

where 𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) represents the total value of the firm;

(1), 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

represents capitalized value of the stream of

firm’s earnings; (𝑥𝑥 − 𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) represents dividend payment by the firm; 𝑥𝑥 ∗ represents firm assets

(capital) at an optimal level; 𝑥𝑥 represents firm’s initial assets at the start level; 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) represent a

stream of a firm’s income over a certain period in time, and; 𝜌𝜌 represent the cost of capital.

The reduced form of Equation (1) represents a condition in which a firm is at or below the

threshold earnings level and therefore retains all of its earnings. The reduced form of Equation (1) is 𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) =

𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

(2).

+ 𝑥𝑥

Now, solving the right-hand side of Equation (2), we get 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ )

+ 𝑥𝑥 ⟹ �

𝜌𝜌

� + [𝑥𝑥 ],

where the following conditions are also applicable and hold true in the case of no dividend payout condition, which is 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

> 0 [𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) = 𝐼𝐼1 , 𝐼𝐼2 , 𝐼𝐼3 , 𝐼𝐼4 , … … … . , 𝐼𝐼𝑛𝑛 ].

And, 𝜌𝜌 < 𝑟𝑟𝑔𝑔 [𝑤𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒; 𝑔𝑔 = 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔ℎ 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 ]

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Here, 𝐼𝐼 represent an investment of the firm in a project; 𝑟𝑟 represent return function for the

current level of firm’s assets (𝑥𝑥 ∗ ); 𝜌𝜌 represent the cost of capital or required rate of return desired by the investor;

𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) 𝜌𝜌

> 0 ⟹ is considered as a continuous return function, whereas rest is constant.

Now, the right-hand side of the equation ‘S’ can be written as follows: 𝑟𝑟(𝑥𝑥 ∗ )

�

𝜌𝜌

� + [𝑥𝑥 ] ⟹ [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ] + [𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑚𝑚 ′ 𝑠𝑠 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙] ,

where (𝑥𝑥 < 𝑥𝑥 ∗ ) holds true and represents that the initial or starting level of a firm’s capital after a

certain period like; a fiscal year is less than the threshold level of earnings. So, in this situation firms have no extra funds that can be paid out as dividends to the shareholders. Thus, the firm retains all of its earnings and also stretch-out for external financing from the financial institution or capital market to get back to the threshold level of the firm’s assets (𝑥𝑥 ∗ ). But, here We have ignored all means of external financing because leverage makes a firm a risky investment and also

negatively affects the value of the firm. Now, Equation (2) takes the form

𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) = [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑠𝑠𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒]

+[𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓]

Or 𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) = [𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 ] + [𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸] + 𝑋𝑋 Or 𝜈𝜈1 (𝑥𝑥 ) ⟹ [𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 ] + 𝑋𝑋

(3),

where 𝑋𝑋 represents a vector of all the financial variables affecting the total value of the firm and

here we have taken it as a control vector which creates no impact on the firm valuation equation. Therefore, (CSTE) represents a continuous capitalized stream of total earnings of the firm taken as

fixed variable creating no impact on the equation because in time ’t’ firm’s investment and reinvestment projects have not generated higher returns that once added to initial capital remain less than the threshold level of firm’s funds. So, under this condition firms retain earnings that are available for investment activities. Equation (2) has been further modified to Equation (3) including shareholders' wealth as an important variable. Figure 1 shows the diagram of retained earnings-based firm valuation model.

Figure 1: Research Model of the study

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2.1 Econometric Model of the Study The econometric model tested in this research study is as follows: 𝜈𝜈(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) = 𝑆𝑆𝑊𝑊(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) = 𝛼𝛼𝑜𝑜 + 𝛽𝛽1 [𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸](𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) + 𝑋𝑋(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) + 𝜀𝜀(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡)

(3),

where 𝜈𝜈(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) represents the value of the manufacturing listed firm 𝑖𝑖 in the time 𝑡𝑡; ‘𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) ’ represents shareholders wealth generated by the manufacturing listed firm 𝑖𝑖 in the time 𝑡𝑡; ‘𝛼𝛼𝑜𝑜 ’ is model

constant term; [𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸] (𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) represents earnings retained by the manufacturing listed firm 𝑖𝑖 in the time 𝑡𝑡; 𝛽𝛽1 represents the coefficient of retained earnings variable; 𝑋𝑋(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) is a vector

function that represents all the financial variables that are affecting the research model for a manufacturing listed firm 𝑖𝑖 in the time 𝑡𝑡; and it is included in the model based on the work of Ho

(2003), and; 𝜀𝜀(𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡) is the model error term.

The statements of the hypotheses formulated for testing are

𝑯𝑯𝟏𝟏 : Retained earnings are positively associated with a firm’s performance, and Free Cash Flows (FCF) in the shape of retained earnings as the primary source of financing investments enhance the value of the firm (Ezeoha, 2008; Bambang et al., 2019; Bambang et al., 2019; Ball et al., 2020; Zhang and Zi, 2021). 𝑯𝑯𝟐𝟐 : Retaining excess cash in the form of retained earnings maximizes the wealth of the firm’s shareholders in the case when greater investment opportunities are available to the firm. Alternatively, if retention of earnings increases along with the increase of reinvestment of retained earnings, return on equity increases, and thus shareholders’ objective of wealth maximization is achieved (Baum and Turner, 2004; Chen, 2008; Lee et al., 2015; Dogru and Sirakaya-Turk, 2017). 𝑯𝑯𝟑𝟑 : Firm which follows shareholders' value maximization policy accumulates funds to be invested in profitable projects and higher value creating strategies successfully generate greater shareholder’s wealth (Ghosh and Woolridge, 1989; Wei and Zhou, 2020).

2 Method 2.1 Sampling and Procedure A total of 189 manufacturing firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) have been the study population. The sample of the study consist of 102 listed manufacturing firms selected randomly. The sample study period conformed to the regime of General Pervez Musharraf, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) as discussed earlier. The sample firms belonged to eight industrial manufacturing sectors including; Chemicals, Pharma and Bio Tech, Electronic and Electrical Equipment, Food Producers, Construction and Materials, Automobile and Parts, Industrial Engineering, and Industrial Metals and Mining. An online website; randomizer.org has been used to generate a set of 102 unique numbers considered as a study sample. Additionally, Raosoft.com an online website has been used to calculate the sample size. The final sample comprised of 85 manufacturing listed firms which have been sourced to collect primary data by means of a research instrument consisting of 26 questions scaled from 1-5 (Likert type scale), where 1 represents

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‘strongly disagree’ and 5 represents ‘strongly agree’. The reliability of the tool calculated by Cronbach’s Alpha of firm valuation model resulted in a score of 0.866. The validity of the tool after applying factor analysis showed factor loading of all the items values greater than 0.50 cut-off value.

3 Result and Discussion 3.1 Linear Ordinary Least Squares Regression Analysis Results We have applied linear ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis on the collected data to generate results represented in Table 1. Table 1: Linear Ordinary Least Squares Regression Analysis Results Variables

Beta coefficients

First Regression Model Retained IV-1 Earnings DV-1 Firm Value Second Regression Model Retained IV-1 Earnings Shareholders DV-2 Wealth Third Regression Model IV-1 Firm Value Shareholders DV-2 Wealth

Standar d Error

t-value

.672

.152

4.365

.001

.927

.626

1.482

.169

.625

.187

3.339

.008

p-value

1.751

.671

2.607

.026

.836

.253

3.308

.008

.340

.925

.367

.721

F Statistics

R Square

Hypothesis

F value

p-value

𝑅𝑅

19.054

.001*

.810

.656

𝐻𝐻1 Accepted

11.148

.008*

.726

.527

𝐻𝐻2 Accepted

10.945

.008*

.723

.523

𝐻𝐻3 Accepted

*Significant at 0.05 (p<0.05) Constants: DV-1, DV-2, DV-2, in first, second, and third regression respectively.

Table 1 reports regression analysis results in three steps. First, ‘retained earnings’ is regressed with ‘firm value’. Second, ‘retained earnings’ is regressed with ‘shareholders wealth’. And, third, ‘firm value’ is regressed with ‘shareholders wealth’. In the first regression analysis, the value of Beta equals .672, for the second regression value of Beta equals .625 and for the third regression value of Beta equals .836 which revealed a positive impact of modeled variables. Moreover, it is confirmed by the high values of R (=.810) for first regression, R (=.726) for second regression, and R (=.723) for third regression that there are strong correlations between independent and dependent variables. Furthermore, the value of R square (=.656) for first regression, R square (=.527) for second regression, and R square (=.523) for third regression endorsed that 65.6% of the variance in firm value and 52.7% of the variance in shareholders wealth has been significantly explained by retained earnings. Also, shareholders' wealth is directly and positively linked with firm value. And, 52.3% of the variance in shareholders' wealth has been significantly explained by firm value. Additionally, F values of 19.054, 11.148, and 10.945 show the overall significance and strength of the models evaluated by regression analyses at (p-values < 0.05 level). The positive sign of Beta values indicates that if firm value and shareholders' wealth are to

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be enhanced, it is necessary to retain earnings and invest them in positive NPV investment projects. Thus, hypotheses 𝐻𝐻1 , 𝐻𝐻2 and 𝐻𝐻3 are accepted and it is established that retained earnings

have maximized the firm value as well as the wealth of the shareholders during the study period, representing that the sample firms have successfully utilized retained earnings for value-enhancing investment and reinvestment activities in Pakistan.

3.2 Results of Investment and Reinvestment of Retained Earnings Tables 2 reports the values of N representing the number of responded firms. The mean represents an average of scale values ranging from 0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and no reinvestment represents the percentage of scale values selected by the respondent. In 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, the majority of the respondents (45.45%) reinvested up to 25% of their firm’s net income in value-enhancing projects. In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, the majority of the respondents (36.36%) invested up to 25% of their firm’s net income as compared to 27.27% of respondents who reinvested net income of their firm between 75 to 100%. No reinvestment activity was reported as 27.27% to 18.18% by the respondents in 2005, indicating an increase in reinvestments by the sample firms. The no reinvestment response is also reduced beyond 2006 when only 9.09% of the net income was retained by the firms and the rest was used for investment and reinvestment activities. Table 2: Analysis results of the investment and reinvestment activities Year N Mean

2000 2001 2002 2003 12 12 12 12 2.82 3.09 3.00 3.00 0 – 25 % 45.45 % 36.36 % 36.36 % 36.36 % 25 – 50 % 0% 0% 0% 0% Percent (%) 50 – 75 % 9.09 % 9.09 % 18.18 % 18.18 % 75 – 100 % 18.18 % 27.27 % 18.18 % 18.18 % No reinvestment 27.27 % 27.27 % 27.27 % 27.27 % Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 N 12 12 12 12 Mean 2.73 2.64 2.64 2.55 0 – 25 % 36.36 % 45.45 % 45.45 % 45.45 % 25 – 50 % 9.09 % 0% 0% 9.09 % Percent (%) 50 – 75 % 18.18 % 9.09 % 9.09 % 0% 75 – 100 % 18.18 % 36.36 % 36.36 % 36.36 % No reinvestment 18.18 % 9.09 % 9.09 % 9.09 % The total mean score of investment and reinvestment of net income (2000 - 2009) = 2.802

2004 12 3.00 36.36 % 0% 18.18 % 18.18 % 27.27 % 2009 12 2.55 45.45 % 9.09 % 0% 36.36 % 9.09 %

4 Conclusion It is established based on the test of the retained earnings-based firm valuation model in Pakistan which represents the era of General Pervez Musharraf during 2000-2009, that higher retention of earnings by the listed manufacturing firms in Pakistan has significantly enhanced firm value due to investment and reinvestment activities. Consequently, shareholders’ wealth has been maximized during 2000-2009. The investment and reinvestment activities generated out of 77%

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retained earnings by 85 manufacturing firms. The analysis of three regression models endorsed the effective deployment of retained earnings-based firm valuation model in Pakistan. Therefore, results presented in this paper show the investment and reinvestment potential of manufacturing firms equipped to facilitate all upcoming Pakistani and Chinese government's industrial as well as economic growth initiatives and collaborations planned under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.

5 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6 References Alves, P. (2018). Abnormal retained earnings around the world. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 46, 63-74. DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2018.05.002 Baker, H. K., Saadi, S., Dutta, S., & Gandhi, D. (2007). The perception of dividends by Canadian managers: new survey evidence. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 3(1), 70-91. Baldwin, K., & Alhalboni, M. (2020). The Impact of profit-sharing investment accounts on shareholder’ wealth, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 69. DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101253 Ball, R., Gerakos, J., Linnainmaa, J. T., & Nikolaev, V. (2020). Earnings, retained earnings, and book-tomarket in the cross section of expected returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 135(1), 231-254. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.013 Bambang, N. S., Subroto, B., T, S., Pontoh, W., & Papavassiliou, V. (2019). Dividend catering, life-cycle, and policy: Evidence from Indonesia, Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1-15. Bhattacharyya, N., Mawani, A., & Morrill, C. (2008). Dividend Payout and Executive Compensation: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 48, 521-541. Bosch-Badia, M. T., Montllor-Serrats, J., & Tarrazon-Rodon, M. A. (2014). Capital Budgeting and Shareholders’ Value: Investment Projects Versus Courses of Action, The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment, 59(3), 207-230. DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2014.910719 Chen, Yenn-Ru. (2008). Corporate Governance and Cash Holdings: Listed New Economy Versus Old Economy Firms. Corporate Governance, 16(5), 430-442. Dogru, T., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2017). Investment and Firm Value: Is There an Optimal Investment Level in Hotel Firms?. Journal of Hospitality Financial Management, 25(1), 17-26. DOI: 10.1080/10913211.2017.1314123 Donati, C. (2016). Firm growth and liquidity constraints: evidence from the manufacturing and service sectors in Italy, Applied Economics, 48, 1881-1892. DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1109044 Gentry, J. A., Reilly, F. K., & Sandretto, Michael. J. (2003). Learning About Intrinsic Valuation With the Help of an Integrated Valuation Model. FMA European Meetings Dublin, 1-23.

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Ho, H. (2003). Dividend Policies in Australia and Japan. IAER, 9(2), 91-100. Indurthy, R. (2004). Musharraf's Regime In Pakistan: The Praetorianism Faces An Uncertain Future, The Indian Journal of Political Science, 65(2), 259-282. Jensen, M. C. (2001). Value Maximization, Stakeholder Theory, and the Corporate Objective Function. Harvard Business School (HBS) Working Paper No. (00-058), 8-21. Jones, S., & Sharma, R. (2001). The Association Between the Investment Opportunity Set and Corporate Financing and Dividend Decisions: Some Australian Evidence. Managerial Finance, 27(3), 48-64. La-Porta, R., Lopez-De-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (2000). Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the world. The Journal of Finance, LV(1), 1-33. Lee, J., Park, J., & Park, S. (2015). Revisiting CEO power and firm value. Applied Economics Letters, 22(8), 597-602, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.962216 Lindholm, A.L.., Gibler, K. M., & Levainen, K. I. (2006). Modeling the Value-Adding Attributes of Real Estate to the Wealth Maximization of the Firm. JRER, 28(4), 445-475. Martínez, S. C., García, T. P. J., & Martínez, S. P. (2013). Corporate cash holding and firm value, Applied Economics, 45(2), 161-170 DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.595696 McCarthy, B. F. (2004). Instant gratification or long-term value? A lesson in enhancing shareholder wealth. Journal of Business Strategy, 25(4), 10-17. Masso, J. & Merikull, J. (2011). Macroeconomic effects of zero corporate income tax on retained earnings. Baltic Journal of Economics, 11(2), 81-99, DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2011.10840502 Mehar, A. (2007). Corporate Governance and Dividend Policy. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 619, 1-13. Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms have Information that Investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 187-221. Nappi, C. I., Missonier, P. F., & Cancel, M. (2009). Value Creation and the impact of corporate real estate assets, An empirical investigation with French listed companies. Journal of Corporate Real Estate, 11(2), 78-90. Rozeff, M. S. (1982). Growth, beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. The Journal of Financial Research, 5, 249-259. Sethi, Suresh. P., & Taksar, M. I. (2002). Optimal Financing of a Corporation Subject to Random Returns. Mathematical Finance, 12(2), 155-172. Trundle, M. B. (2005). Capturing hidden value for your shareholders. Journal of Corporate Real Estate, 7(1), 55-71. Wang, X. J., & Choi, S. H. (2015). Stochastic lot sizing manufacturing under the ETS system for maximization of shareholder wealth, European Journal of Operations Research, 246(1), 66-75. Wei, F., & Zhou, L. (2020). Multiple large shareholders and corporate environmental protection investment: Evidence from the Chinese listed companies. China Journal of Accounting Research, 13(4), 387-404. DOI: 10.1016/j.cjar.2020.09.001

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Zhang, J., & Zi, S. (2021). Socially responsible investment and firm value: The role of institutions. Finance Research Letters, 41. DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101806 Dr. Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi is an Associate Professor at Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, Foundation University Islamabad (FUI), Rawalpindi Campus (FURC), Pakistan. He earned his PhD degree in Management Sciences emphasizing Corporate Finance and Investment under Higher Education Commission (HEC) Pakistan, Indigenous 5000 PhD Fellowship Program. His research interests are in the areas of Corporate Finance and Investment, Capital Budgeting, Financial Management, Financial Risk Management, Islamic Banking & Finance, Financial Analytics, Predictive Analytics, Artificial Intelligence Applications in Finance, Organizational Management, Educational Management and Data Science. Dr. Muhammad Yar Khan is an Assistant Professor at Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus, Pakistan. He earned PhD degree in Accounting and Finance from Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK funded by the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission, UK. His research are Corporate Governance and Financial Management. Dr. Naeem Ullah is an Assistant Professor at Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, Foundation University Islamabad, Rawalpindi Campus, Pakistan. He had completed his PhD degree in Fiance from International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He had published more than 20 research paper in international journals. He is working on new ideas in the field of corporate finance to enhance the profitability of firm and to protect share holder's interest. Dr. Mehboob Ahmad is Professor and Program Manager of MS & PhD programs at Department of Management Sciences, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology (SZABIST), Islamabad Campus, Pakistan.. He holds a PhD in Economics.

Dr. Syed Mutahir Hussain Shah is a Visiting/Adjunct Professor at Institute of Business & Management (IB&M), University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan. He completed his PhD degree in Engineering Management from University of Engineering & Technology (UET), Taxilla, Pakistan. His research encompasses Management & Leadership.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Analysing Malaysian Houses with Discursive Idea Ng Veronica1*, Teow Hai P’ng1 1

School of Architecture, Building and Design, Taylor's University, Selangor, MALAYSIA. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +60-172945518, Email: ng.foongpeng@taylor.edu.my)

Paper ID: 12A10I

Abstract

Volume 12 Issue 10

There has been ongoing discourse on contemporary Malaysian architecture; few studies examine design thinking and narratives Received 30 November through analysis of architecture. Taking the "house" as an important 2019 Received in revised form 14 archetype, this study analyses eight Malaysian houses completed between October 2021 the 1980s and the present (Jimmy Lim, Ken Yeang, Lok Wooi, Mike Boon, Accepted 22 October 2020 Tan Loke Mun, d.c.a, WHBC, and CY Chan) to contribute to the current Available online 26 October discourse on defining Malaysian architecture. Taking an interpretive stance, 2021 this study used a combination of interviews, observations and re-drawing Keywords: analysis based on the framework of Simon Unwin (2014). The findings imply Malaysian house; Analysing architecture; that to understand contemporary Malaysian architecture, the house (object) Malaysian architecture; should be viewed as a discursive object, integrated within the discourse on Design thinking; Design contemporary Malaysian architecture instead of solely a product that represents it. narrative; Discursive object; Contemporary Malaysian architecture.

Cite This Article: Ng, V., P’ng, T. H. (2021). Analysing Malaysian Houses with Discursive Idea. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10I, 1-7. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.198

1 Introduction Although Malaysian architecture is diverse, critical publications that question its intellectual contexts are largely lacking. A large body of publications evolved around books on pioneers of modern Malaysian architecture (Lai, 2007; Malaysian Institute of Architects, 2010; Ngiom, 2010; Ariffin, Hussain & Ng, 2015) and the Malaysian house (Goad & Ngiom, 2007; Beal & Termansen, 2008; Powell, 2008; Lee & Zainal, 2010; McGillick & Kawana, 2017). There are also architect's monographs such as d.c. A's Homes, Issues + Processes (Cheah, 2011) and ATSA Monographs (http://www.atsa.com.my/folio_monograph.html), and exhibitions, books, and magazines, such as Architecture Malaysia, the official magazine of the Malaysian Institute of Architects). These published materials display the breath of Malaysian architecture, yet there are gaps in taking a more critical stance on recent and contemporary Malaysian architecture. Taking this as the premise

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of inquiry, the recent book Theorising Emergent Malaysian Architecture (Ng, 2016) theorised the selected works of ten practices and argued for plurality and variation in emerging architectural approaches by revealing the underpinnings that led towards such approaches in Malaysian architecture and practice.

2 Literature Review The rhetoric question on identity and the big question of the direction of Malaysian architecture have been inquired. Such questions have been the basis of Tajuddin (2005), suggesting the Malaysian identity and presented different ways (such as through revivalist approach, primitive regionalism, ethnic symbolism, and tropical heritage) toward identity-making beyond the Malaycentric approach (Tajuddin, 2005, p. 18). Moving away from the documentation approach on Malaysian architecture and the discourse on Malaysian identity, this research seeks to approach Malaysian architecture analytically. It seeks to contribute to contemporary Malaysian architecture by analysing the architects' design thinking and narrative in the generation of architecture. Taking the house as an architectural typology, the study provides alternative views to the current architectural discourse. Taking cues from the positioning of the 'house' within the discourse in architecture, the design thinking and narratives of the house are taken as the premises for study. The significance of the 'house' as a typology is underpinned by the notion that houses form the experimental platform of architectural exploration for architects, for example, Villa Savoye by Corbusier, Farnsworth House by Mies van der Rohe, Venturi House by Robert Venturi and so on. As Unwin (2014; 2015) argued, analysing architecture enables one to make sense of the complex and diverse aspects of architecture. Taking this as a point of departure, this research examines the "house" as an object for analysis. First, this study analysed the architectural construct of context, form, space, tectonics in the production of architecture and subsequently theorised the house as an architectural form that reflects the design thinking and narrative of the architect. It modestly aimed to contribute to the larger contemporary discourse on Malaysian architecture.

3 Method This study utilised interpretive research through observation, building analyses, and interview with the architecture of eight houses spanning through the 1980s to the present. These houses were: (1) Salinger House (1988) – Jimmy Lim; (2) Roof-Roof House (1991) – Kenneth Yeang, T.R. Hamzah & Yeang; (3) Wooi Residence (2004) – Wooi Lok Kuang, Wooi Architect; (4) M+M House (2009) – Mike Boon, Arkitek JFN; (5) S11 (2013) – Dr Tan Loke Mun, Archicentre; (6) 38Mews (2015) – Chan Mun Inn, design collective architects; (7) Chempenai House (2015) – W.H. and BC Ang, WHBC Architects; (8) Twinkle Villa (2016) – Chan CY, CCY Architect. The selected houses must be those designed by registered architects, recognised through awards and publications, and completed between the 1980s and the present. Taking a qualitative stance, the study combined interviews with selected architects, observations of the houses, and investigating the architectural ideas through drawing form part of the analytical process through re-drawing on the selected houses based on Simon Unwin's

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framework of analysing architecture (2014; 2015). The conceptual framework of analysis that follows: identification of place; basic elements; modifying elements; primitive place types; temples and cottages; geometries of being; ideal geometry; stratification; space and structure; parallel walls, transition, hierarchy, heart; and others. In addition to the interview and site visit, the analytical approach offers formal and experiential means of understanding where the architect's design thinking (where do ideas) come from and how are they executed into tangible built forms and environments. Subsequently, the analyses of the eight houses will be compared to identify themes. These themes will be discussed, and relationships will be drawn to identify an alternative approach to understanding Malaysian architecture.

4 Result and Discussion The findings of the eight houses based on the re-drawing analyses and observations of the houses and interviews with the architects are presented in Table 1. Table 1: Findings from the analyses of the eight houses. Salinger House

Modern Vernacularism With deviation from familiar architectural language acquainted to the local context, the Salinger House transcended the cultural dimension of a vernacular architecture concept to keeping up with the contemporary living environment. A house is a modern form constructed with traditional craftsmanship of the Malays draws an example of transculturalism and establishing relevancy with its time and context. Superimposing triangular spaces of indoor and outdoor over the small, simple house, the interplay of the man-made ecosystem and natural environment creates a symbiotic relationship between the living space and its bigger picture of the surrounding. It becomes an illustration of the architect Jimmy Lim's manifestos toward tropical architecture, whereby he suggested the approaches such as "Rites of the Tropics" – in which the house celebrates the beauty and appreciation of nature; "Architecture of Humiliation" – in which the

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Roof Roof House

A Modern Language of Tropical Living Roof-Roof House is an adaptation of modernist architecture into local climatic conditions. A house that responds to its environment presents an unfamiliar appearance compared to a local vernacular house and is more like a Corbusian villa while still considering the environmental aspects. Whereas a typical vernacular architecture is designed by taking the climatic behaviours into account, Roof-Roof House takes a step further by having the design interact and manipulate them to fit into the desirable performances. By extracting the climatic functions of vernacular buildings, bioclimatic architecture is essentially the learning from the vernacular incorporated into another architecture style. The formation of the house serves as a fundamental ecological design framework for a biggerscale project such as highrises. A climate-responsive architecture enables effective low energy design. Not having the sensitivity could result in a

Wooi Residence

Mnemonic Representation of Life Apart from its roof profile and material palette that makes the house stood out amongst the neighbourhood, it is the compilation of various relationships that Wooi Residence had in its design strategies that creates an unconventional house. As a combination of living space for the family and home office for the architect, the house accumulates important work, life, and play programs. It has to be a healthy and easily maintained place for family living while at the same time a showcase to visitors or even potential clients about the architect's belief in architecture. With this in mind, an approach of learning from the past is given to bring the house to life, reflecting upon the architect's personal life experience from a more personal perspective of memories and family to a more professional perspective of materiality and construction reconciled under one big roof. Wooi's childhood reminiscences of village living are reimagined into his architectural language

M+M House

Drawing Influence from the Past In conjunction with the architect, Mike Boon's upbringing and his strong ties to Sarawak's local heritage and culture, the prevailing sense of communal living becomes his foremost manifestation onto his own living space, the M+M House. Drawing influence from the tradition, a house becomes the reminiscence of the past, translated into a modern context. As the past is something that we had experienced before, it can be used to form a solid cue in architecture – a predicted one on what is desire, what to expect, and what should be brought forward into the future. It can be represented as a form of learning by building upon the memories. Rather than juxtaposition, reinterpretation of traditional architecture elements becomes critical for better fit into the current context, and this cannot be done without a great prior understanding of the culture, such is the case of the relationship between M+M House and Mike. By knitting the idea of communal living and tradition together in the form of a contemporary residential, the

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house rejects stylistic influence and corresponds with project requirements and contextual cues; and "Taichi of Architecture" – in which the house works together with the environment to establish a harmony coexistence. More than a shelter, the Salinger House becomes a symbolic union between modernity and tradition and a model for positioning vernacular architecture within the modern world.

S11

House as an Exemplar A testbed in its nature and experimentation in its initial conception, the S11 House quickly becomes a precedent when discussing regionalism architecture within a modern context. Maximising the idea of green architecture, the house demonstrates hedonistic sustainability for contemporary living – an example of reinterpreting the misconception of being environmental-friendly as associated with compromised living quality. A house as the most intimate space to the occupants, which is the architect Dr Tan himself, becomes a good opportunity and a convincing means of displaying his belief in tropical architecture through his living environment. The house is often utilised as an educational tool of conducted visits, having in the architect's mind that the others can learn through the house about the work he had done and its benefits of sustainable living. Going back to the shelter and machine analogy, the architect's view of ecofriendly living as sensitive and understanding nature works put forth new thinking about a house. It should function by letting its surrounding works

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non-efficient building that requires higher energy to maintain; the house creates a new way of sustainable living for the occupants. After all, "a house is a place for a happy family life" – as defined by architect Ken Yeang, it offers the opportunity to understand the users' dreams and find ways to accommodate them into built form. Thus, for Yeang, the house becomes a model to his approach in architecture; for his family, the house creates high efficiency and comfortable living space within the tropical climate. 38 Mews

Accumulation of Contents A house that celebrates the coexistence of its human occupants with their pets, 38 Mews is formed by intertwining the architect Chan Mun Inn's lifestyle with that of the cats into the design brief. With the architect upholding the belief of content over form, the result – a highly meaningful living environment that resonates with all the occupants' characteristics and becomes an behaviours interpretive cue to architecture on the importance of understanding its context and its users. Despite the scale nature of the house for two, the small single residential displays an expanded complexity and depth in celebrating the ideology of content-driven design by the of multiple accumulation design perspectives before being translated holistically into the architecture of a house. As much as it is reflected upon various precedents and attentions, form is a by-product of deeper design thinking. A house is less about how it looks but how it feels living inside. Amidst its highly distinguished form, 38 Mews is fundamentally a content-driven design – an exemplary architecture of form follows function.

of the house, both nostalgic and functional. It balances the comfortability of open tropical living and a sense of domestic security through the use of timber and brick, and the articulation between these two materials allows him the opportunity to express his architectural expertise. Overall, the Wooi Residence is indeed storytelling of the architect Wooi Lok Kuang itself.

Chempenai House

Context Becoming the Architecture A house of raw concrete surfaces with voids of various sizes all other it, penetrated by trees and partially covered by foliage, from the exterior Chempenai House looks as if it is an unoccupied structure between the forest. The sculptural aesthetic of its brutalist external profile emits calmness that resonates with the surrounding landscape. The unambiguous presence of the monolithic concrete is made hidden by the trees overgrowing all around it and the light shining through over. On the interior, a sense of connection to the immediate environment is always present. Surrounding landscapes are framed into interior space, and the spaces are opened directly to the surrounding. Intertwining interiority and exteriority together, the architecture seems to disappear into the landscape effortlessly. A masculine-looking house exerts rather introverted characters – it is an escape from the urban context, a house that does not want to be found. For a house that has the privilege to sit on such a beautiful sloping forest site, the objective of Chempenai

house offers two new ways of looking into architecture: First, the preservation of local identity and culture can be done by reinterpreting their meanings into modern living; Second, by viewing a house as a place of interactions: between families, friends and communities, the presence and expression of architectural elements is perhaps not that crucial. In keeping the design simple, the activities become the celebrated element here.

Twinkle Villa

House as a Transition and Versatile Space Packed within the size of a house, a diversity of spatial experiences and architecture elements occurred at the same place, drawing a complex relationship between the occupants, the spaces, and the environments. The natural palette of Twinkle Villa harmonised its context yet creates versatility for the spaces within: a variety of spatial qualities offering flexibility for the occupants to interpret the spaces themselves and establish their unique connection to the site. Elaborating on the explanation of architect C.Y.Chan on the role of a house as an interrelationship between man and space, each defining one another, the house elevates both the experience of the living space and the forest, adding a new layer onto the meaning of escape. In the case of Twinkle Villa, a house becomes more than just a shelter. Instead, it contributes to a bigger picture as a transition space that weaves two distinctive worlds together. In another perspective, the house serves a wider context rather than a simple family retreat, falling back in line with the architect's preference of building to accommodate bigger user groups.

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seamlessly throughout the whole space. The house becomes the engine, and the environment becomes the fuel to powering up to achieve maximum efficiency. On a more detailed level, the S11 House also becomes a manifestation of the architect's interest in tropical living – reflecting the "golden module" of Balinese villa architecture. Working in hand with the sustainable strategies that the house is equipped with, it expanded a of new consideration designing for pleasure and new spatial experience that otherwise only exist in holiday resorts. With such experience brought closer to everyday life, the S11 House is an uncommon relaxing tropical villa within a bustling urban context, setting an example and new possibility to the local architecture scene.

House is clear: it focuses on nothing but the surrounding landscape. The atmosphere created in the house is an obvious make-use of its unique opportunity, manifesting the architect WHBC's belief in responding to the inconsistency of every design context rather than a prescribed style which may lead to egoistic architecture.

The themes emerging from the findings of the eight houses allude to three important implications. Firstly, the house is an architectural construct that is informed by basic principles of understanding architecture. The findings echo the position of Unwin (2015, p. 269), who ascertained that a building is a physical, sensual, psychological, social and emotional medium. Thus, although the outcome of the house is different in terms of space and material form, there are consistent principles by which architecture can be read. Secondly, consistent spatial grammar emerges from the analyses that define the cultural and contextual conditions that shape Malaysian houses (architecture). For example, there are tangible grammars such as large roof overhangs, verandah spaces, extended spaces, and trees; and intangible grammars such as spaces in between, the tapestry of light, shade, wind and rain, consistent with current literature on tropical Malaysian houses. Thirdly, there are seminal differences in theorising the house, underpinned by the interrelation between the architect, the practice and the house as a material form. The architect's design thinking and narrative anchors the conception of the house, where their standpoints emerged from typological, psychological, space and person, explorative, methodological perspectives. In addition, as the external factors are varied and discursive by nature, the product and production of architecture differ. This finding extends the knowledge presented in current publications and monographs on Malaysian houses (Goad & Ngiom, 2007; Beal & Termansen, 2008; Powell, 2008; Lee & Zainal, 2010; McGillick & Kawana, 2017), positioning the house as a representation of 'idea' and 'practice. Within this web of relations, the house becomes more than a

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material form. Its role is discursive, positioned within the broader discourse on contemporary Malaysian architecture illustrated in Figure 1. THE CLIENTS’ BRIEF

COST / TIME

FUNCTION / PROGRAMMATIC REQUIREMENT (LOCAL) PLACE & PEOPLE

THE ‘EDUCATED CLIENTS’ THEORY-PRACTICE LINK

TRANSITION IN THEORY OF DESIGN

PERSONAL BELIEFS Upbringing Cultural differences Education

Different possibilities Consistent / continuous Development with minor changes Improvement etc. Disjointed development

ARCHITECTURES, , BUILDINGS, SPACES

THEORY OF DESIGN/ PHILOSOPHY Intention-driven Process-driven Philosophy-driven

CONTEXTUAL CONDITIONS Authority requirement Physical Social-people Cultural Political Non-political

STAKEHOLDER

- organizations, eg: NGOs etc - community / local groups - decision makers / authorities

ANCILLARY / GLOBAL ISSUES? ETC…

ARCHITECT / PRACTICE

Figure 1: The discursive nature of the house (architecture).

5 Conclusion This study contributes to the discourse on houses in Malaysian architecture, illustrating that there are myriad approaches to architecture, but there are underlying principles and spatial grammar in architecture reflective of local culture and context. Based on the selected houses that closely relate to the architect's body of works from the 1980s to contemporary times, consistent yet diverse themes of typological, psychological, space and person, explorative, methodological design thinking and narratives emerged. The themes inter-relate between the material form, the architect and his practice. The findings from this study extend the understanding of contemporary Malaysian architecture. It highlights the need to form a critical stance on understanding architecture beyond a physical material form. Architecture as a built form is not only descriptive, and rather it is discursive. This suggests the re-positioning of how architecture is viewed, perceived and interpreted. Rather than merely defining architecture as a built form, it should be defined by the intangible conditions, particularly of the architect as an agent to the production of architecture. It means when we study architecture, we should study the discursive relationships rather than the material form. Moving forward, further research may position itself on this basis to unravel the deeper and richer definition, direction and expression of Malaysian architecture.

6 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7 Acknowledgement The authors are grateful to Taylor's University, which provided Taylor's Research Grant Scheme 2019 to support the research project titled Analysing Architecture: Dissecting the Malaysian House.

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8 References Ariffin K., Hussain, N. & Ng, F.P. (2015). Liew, V. F. (Ed.). The Living Machines: Malaysia's Modern Architectural Heritage. Malaysia: Pertubuhan Akitek Malaysia. Beal, G. & Termansen, J. (2008). Tropical Style: Contemporary Dream Houses in Malaysia. Hong Kong: Periplus Editions. Cheah, F. (Ed.) (2011). Homes, Issues + Processes: design collective architects. Black Dog Publishing. Goad, P. & Ngiom, L. (2007). Recent Malaysian Architecture. Pesaro Publishing. Lai, C. K. (2007). Building Merdeka: Independence Architecture in Kuala Lumpur 1957-1966. Malaysia: Petronas. Lee, C. W. & Zainal, S. (2012). Rethink – A New Paradigm for Malaysian Timber. Malaysia: MPH Publishing/Malaysian Timber Council. McGillick, P. & Kawana, M. (2017). Sustainable Asian Houses. Boston: Tuttle Publishing. Ng, V. (2016). Theorising Emergent Malaysian Architecture. Pertubuhan Akitek Malaysia and Imaji Books. Ngiom, L. (Ed.) (2010). Shapers of Modern Malaysia. Malaysia: Pertubuhan Akitek Malaysia. Powell, R. (2008). The New Malaysian House. Hong Kong: Periplus Editions. Tajuddin, M. (2005). Malaysian Architecture: Crisis Within. Malaysia: Utusan Publications. Unwin, S. (2014). Analysing Architecture. 4th Ed., New York and London: Routledge. Dr.Ng Veronica is an Associate Professor at the School of Architecture, Building and Design, Taylor's University. Her portfolio partly relates to studies on contemporary Malaysian architecture. She is actively involved in the Malaysian Institute of Architects by convening design discourses, competitions, and being on the editorial for Architecture Malaysia and Architecture Asia magazines. She is also an avid architectural writer who contributes actively to national and international architecture and design magazine such as d+a, Cube, Folio and Architecture Australia. Teow Hai P'ng, Heffrence is a graduate architect who completed his BSc (Hons) Architecture (LAM Part I) from Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR) and Master of Architecture (LAM Part II) from Taylor's University, Malaysia, both with distinctions. He had previously gained experiences in the practice such as being an intern in Redd Design Office (RDO), Malaysia and as Part I architectural assistant in 29 Design, Malaysia. He also involved in various freelancing works including interior design, graphic design, model making, book publication and research assistance. Heffrence's interest is in architecture lays greatly in fictional speculation, architecture narrative, and transdisciplinary studies.

Note: The origin of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the 2nd PAM International Architectural Education Conference (PIAEC 2019) held at the Infrastructure University Kuala Lumpur, Kajang, Malaysia during 1 August 2019.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Mechanical and Microstructural Properties of Alccofine Based Geopolymer Concrete G.Balaji Ponraj1*, S.Kamal1, J.Saravanan1, S.Thirugnanasambandam1 1

Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, INDIA.

*Corresponding Author (Tel: +919944750355, Email: bponraj2584@gmail.com).

Paper ID: 12A10J Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 24 April 2021 Received in revised form 10 July 2021 Accepted 22 July 2021 Available online 02 August 2021

Keywords: Conventional concrete; Geopolymer concrete; Alccofine; Compressive strength; Workability; Stress-strain; Superplasticizer; Geopolymer concrete (GPC); Sodium silicate; Sodium silicate hydrate.

Abstract

This research work reported the characteristics of fly ash-based geopolymer concrete (GPC) that includes alccofine as a binder material. Sodium hydroxide (NaOH) mixed with sodium silicate (Na2SiO3) was used as an alkali activating agent. In the Indian scenario, the fresh and hardening property of alccofine based geopolymer concrete and conventional concrete, e.g. workability, compressive strength, and stress-strain behaviors have been investigated. X-ray Diffraction method was used to identify the chemical compositions of powdered fly ash and alccofine samples. Its microstructures of concrete have been identified through Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The result of GPC with alccofine concludes not only the strength of concrete but also the alternative source for conventional concrete. There was a significant impact observed in the polymerization process of GPC by alccofine 1203, which increases the strength and microstructural features. This study identifies optimum molarity and fly-ash content values to improve the tested specimens’ strengths. Disciplinary: Civil Engineering & Construction Technology (Construction Materials, Structural Engineering). ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Ponraj, G.B., Kamal, S., Saravanan, J., and Thirugnanasambandam, S. (2021). Mechanical and Microstructural Properties of Alccofine Based Geopolymer Concrete. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10J, 1-13. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.199

Nomenclatures and Symbols CC- Conventional concrete GPC- Geopolymer concrete NaOH - Sodium hydroxide Na2SiO3 - Sodium Silicate NASH - Sodium silicate hydrate

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CASH - Calcium silicate hydrate SEM - Scanning Electron Microscope XRD- X-ray diffraction

1 Introduction Joseph Davidovits 1987 started the idea of geopolymer, just because geopolymer is inorganic polymeric materials framed by the response between polymeric chain arrangement and an aluminosilicate at relatively low temperature with the ongoing quick increment in the populace, the requirement for framework improvement expanded exponentially. This expanded interest for the new foundation is taking care of the worldwide interest for construction materials, for instance, common Portland concrete (OPC), a basic restricting component in the delivery of concrete. Geopolymer is described by acceptable strength, ecological importance, low vitality consumption and non-utilization of limestone resources. The concrete business is second just to control age in the creation of CO2 and represents 8-10% of the planet's human-delivered CO2 discharges (Suhendro, 2014; Assi et al., 2018). Through a constant assessment made in 2020, the CO2 discharge is predicted to rise by half of the current levels (Davidovits, 1994; Gartner, 2004). These discoveries have squeezed the concrete development industry. Moreover, modern squanders require huge regions of valuable land for removal which thus affects nature and land use. To conquer these difficulties, specialists have to improve a substitute of fastener materials. Geopolymer Concrete (GPC) or Environmental Friendly Concrete (EFC) is one of the foremost materials recommended by specialists, which is nothing but alkali-activated silica and alumina-rich blend (Saxena et al., 2018). The utilization of GPC decreases CO2, and earth-friendly materials by successfully using industrial wastes, for example, fly-ash slag, rice husk ash. It also discovers that GPC restored at high temperatures can out-perform more than cement concrete based on quality and solidness(Aslani & Nejadi, 2012; Noushini et al., 2016). In this study, the development of alccofine based geopolymer concrete at ambient curing with optimum molarity was identified. The activator solution (NaOH+Na2SiO3+Water) mixed with low calcium fly ash, alccofine, and filler materials at ambient curing gives the better strength of GPC. Different criteria are considered such as compressive strength, workability, and modulus of elasticity. Further, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was conducted in which the structures of alccofine and fly ash are present in GPC with appropriate NaOH concentration under ambient temperature. In addition, XRD was conducted for fly ash and alccofine to quantify the chemical composition. This research work focuses on the formation and portrayal of the characteristics of ambient cured alccofine based GPC compared with CC.

2 Experimental Details: Material Properties 2.1 Fly-ash In this analysis, locally available low-calcium class-F fly ash was used after procuring it from Mettur thermal power plant, Tamilnadu, India. The specific gravity of fly ash was 2.10. Fly ash chemical compound was calculated through X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis cited in the code (BIS

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3812 (Part 1), 2003) with minimum requirements as shown in Table 1. Figures 1(a) & 1(b) show SEM and XRD analyses for Fly Ash. Fly ash XRD with sharp peaks indicates the presence of silica and alumina. The crystalline form of fly ash with a sharp peak at 2ϴ values are 17.52, 23.68, 58.62 (d spacing of 5.24, 2.36, 2.16). A broad diffraction hump in the region of 14-35 degrees denotes that fly ash is in amorphous phases. Silica and Alumina combine to form the amorphous phase(Ponraj et al., 2021).

(a)

(b) Figure 1: (a) SEM and (b) XRD image of Fly ash.

2.2 Alccofine 1203 Alccofine 1203 (AF), a unique product, is synthesized by processing high-glass slag. It possesses high reactivity which is produced as a result of the controlled granulation process. Alccofine 1203 (AF) is an established product, owing to its novel chemistry and ultra-thin particle size. It enhances the workability by diminishing the demand for water and increasing the compressive strength (Jindal et al., 2020; Ponraj et al., 2021; Prithiviraj & Saravanan, 2020, 2021).

(a) (b) Figure 2: (a) SEM and (b) XRD image of Alccofine 1203

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Alccofine enhances high-performance concrete in hardened states, either as a cement substitute or as an additive. Table 1 shows the chemical composition of alccofine, whereas its physical properties are shown in Table 2. Alccofine was made to undergo SEM and XRD analysis since it generally consists of calcite as described in Figures 2(a) & 2(b). The big hump between 1000-1400 on the XRD pattern of alccofine suggests that it is amorphous. Alccofine has low numbered peaks, indicating that absences of crystalline phase and its particle size is small. The alccofine has a high degree of reactivity (Jindal et al., 2017) and Jindal et al., 2018). Table 1: Chemical composition Chemical composition (%) SiO2 + Al2O3 + Fe2O3 SO3 CaO MgO TiO2 Na2O LOI

fly ash 93.82 1.28 1.02 0.38 2.54 0.51 0.52

Cement 28.36 2.5 66.67 0.87 2.5 0.12 1.05

Alccofine 1203 57.9 0.13 43.92 5.82 0.81 -

Table 2: Physical properties. Description Specific gravity Bulk Density [kg/m3] Specific surface area m2/kg

fly ash 2.1 820 321.68

Cement 3.13 1440 340

Alccofine 1203 2.72 680 1200

2.3 Aggregates During the preparation of the whole set of test specimens, the authors used high-quality and well-graded aggregates in surface dry conditions. Fine natural sand and coarse aggregates with a maximum size of 20, 12.5,10,7, and 4.75 mm are used. Table 3 shows the characteristics of aggregates whereas Figure 3 shows the grading curves. The authors performed sieve analysis as per the literature (BIS:383 (1970)) to find the distribution of particle size under coarse as well as fine aggregates. 120

Fine Agg zone 3 min

Zone 3 max

Percentage of Passing

100 80 60 40 20 0 0.01

0.1 1 Seive Size mm

(a) (b) Figure 3: Gradation curve for a) Fine aggregate and b) Coarse aggregate

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2.4 Alkaline Activator Alkali activator is nothing but a blend of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and sodium silicate (Na2SiO3). The authors procured 98% pure and pellet-form NaOH along with Na2SiO3 with SiO2/Na2O ranged between 2 With 65.5% water mass. sodium silicate solution had a chemical composition of Na2O=8.5% and SiO2=26%. Table 4 displays the physical properties of Sodium silicate solution had a density of 1.39 g/cm3 while its relative vapour density was 0.7 at 20°C. Table 3: Physical properties of Aggregate Sample Specific gravity Finess Modulus Water absorption %

Fine Aggregate 2.6 2.75 0.72

Coarse Aggregate 2.8 7.3 1.12

Table 4: Physical properties of sodium silicate Colour pH Density [g/cm3] Total solid content/ Wt%

opaque viscous 11.2 1.39 47.09

2.5 Super Plasticizers In this study, different superplasticizers were tried to achieve expected workability. Na 2SiO3 and NaOH solutions possess high viscosity compared to water. So, several trials were conducted to enhance the workability, to make geopolymer concrete more flexible, and increase the strength and setting time of concrete, After a more trial with different superplasticizers Naphthalene sulphonate based superplasticizers with 2% dosage gives good workability as well as strength to the concrete, and the guidelines are taken from BIS 9103 (1999), and ASTM C494 standards.

3 Results 3.1 Mixing Method of Geopolymer Concrete and Curing As per Parveen & Singhal (2017) and Junaid et al. (2015), the geopolymer concrete design was proposed with different combinations of fly ash and alccofine. Coarse as well as fine aggregates were considered by the entire mixture’s mass like the traditional concrete. Based on the molarity, the concentration of NaOH was different. A significant amount of heat is released by mixing sodium hydroxide with water. To compare the target strength of CC M30 (1:1.92:3.85) & M60 (1:1.02:2.34), with various GPC molarities with the optimum percentage of Fly ash and Alccofine was tried (i.e. 10M, 12M, 14M, and 16M). Considering the optimal ratio Na2SiO3/NaOH is 2.5(Parveen et al., 2018). To enhance the working capability of freshly-prepared geopolymer mix, a 2% Naphthalene Sulphonate-based superplasticizer was employed to minimize the water requirement and increases the operability of the fresh geopolymer mix (Saloni et al., 2020). The Geopolymer concrete mix was synthesized by blending fly ash, Alccofine, and aggregates along with alkaline activator solution, the dosage of superplasticizer and extra water were mixed in pan mixture for about 5 minutes. Different mix proportions of geopolymer specimens with different fly

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ash and alccofine content are mentioned in Table 5 with a varying fly ash content of 319.06, 283.61, 248.16, 495.41, 440.36, and 385.32 kg/m3. Twelve GPC mixes with different designations GPC10M1, GPC10M2, GPC10M3, GPC12M1, GPC12M2, GPC12M3, GPC14M1, GPC14M2, GPC14M3, GPC16M1, GPC16M2, GPC16M3 represents molarity and various percentage of alccofine (10%, 20%, and 30%). For all the mixes the water/geopolymer solids ratio was 0.3. Table 5 shows the correct mix proportions for geopolymer concrete mixes. The researcher assessed the impact of different percentages of alccofine upon the workability and compressive strength of GPC. After casting the GPC, curation of the samples was performed under ambient conditions at 27-32°C (room temperature) for 28 days (Manjunatha et al., 2014). Table 5: Mix proportion Mix CC M30 GPC10M1 GPC10M2 GPC10M3 GPC12M1 GPC12M2 GPC12M3 CC M60 GPC14M1 GPC14M2 GPC14M3 GPC16M1 GPC16M2 GPC16M3

Fine aggregate (kg/m3 ) 654.29 654.29 654.29 654.29 654.29 654.29 654.29 542.46 542.46 542.46 542.46 542.46 542.46 542.46

Coarse aggregate (kg/m3 ) 1308.58 1308.58 1308.58 1308.58 1308.58 1308.58 1308.58 1241.41 1241.41 1241.41 1241.41 1241.41 1241.41 1241.41

Alccofin Fly ash Cement Water Molarity e 3 (kg/m3 ) (kg/m3 ) NaOH (kg/m ) 3 (kg/m ) 0 0 340 162.85 0 319.06 35.45 0 0 10 283.61 70.9 0 0 10 248.16 106.35 0 0 10 319.06 35.45 0 0 12 283.61 70.9 0 0 12 248.16 106.35 0 0 12 0 159 371 159.01 0 495.41 55.05 0 0 14 440.36 110.09 0 0 14 385.32 165.14 0 0 14 495.41 55.05 0 0 16 440.36 110.09 0 0 16 385.32 165.14 0 0 16

Alkaline NaOH solution 3 3 (kg/m ) (kg/m ) 0 0 132.18 18.23 132.18 18.23 132.18 18.23 135.83 21.88 135.83 21.88 135.83 21.88 0 0 140.6 22.65 140.6 22.65 140.6 22.65 148.15 30.2 148.15 30.2 148.15 30.2

SuperExtra Na2Sio3 water plasticizer 3 (kg/m ) (kg/m3 ) [kg/m3 ] 0 0 1.7 113.95 27 3.55 113.95 27 3.55 113.95 27 3.55 113.95 27 3.55 113.95 27 3.55 113.95 27 3.55 0 0 5.3 117.95 41.28 11.01 117.95 41.28 11.01 117.95 41.28 11.01 117.95 41.28 11.01 117.95 41.28 11.01 117.95 41.28 11.01

Mix abbreviations: GPC- Geopolymer concrete, 10M, 12M, 14M, 16M- Different Molarities, (1-A10, 2-A20, 3-A30) 1, 2, 3 - Various percentage of alccofine in each GPC mix.

3.2 Workability Test Slump test was conducted as per the standard slump cone apparatus in compliance with (BIS:7320-1974), the workability of freshly mixed geopolymer concrete was tested as per (BIS 1199 : 2004) standards with varying fly ash and alccofine percentage as shown in Figure 4. 120

M30-CC

A10

A20

A30 Workability mm

Workability mm

100 80 60 40 20 0 M30-CC

GPC10M GPC12M No of Mixes

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

M60-CC

A10 A20 A30

GPC14M GPC16M No of Mixes

Figure 4: Slump value for CC and GPC mix.

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3.3 Compressive Strength The compressive strength test was conducted on a 150mm cube with an electrically operated compression testing machine with 2000 KN capacity. A gradual load was applied until the specimen becomes fail. The test was carried out on 7th day as well as on 28th day of casting and the average values of three cubes were reported.

M30-CC

A10

A20

A30 Compressive Strength N/mm2

Compressive Strength N/mm2

70 60 50 40 30 20 10

M60-CC

A10

A20

A30

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

M60-CC

M30-CC GPC10M GPC12M Mix with various binder content

GPC14M

GPC16M

Mix with various binder content

Figure 5: 7 days Compressive strength test on CC Vs GPC

M30-CC

A10

A20

A30

50 40 30 20 10

80 Compressive Strength N/mm2

Compressive Strength N/mm2

M60-CC

A10

A20

A30

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

0 M30-CC GPC10M GPC12M Mix with various binder content

M60-CC GPC14M GPC16M Mix with various binder content

Figure 6: 28 days Compressive strength test on CC Vs GPC

3.4 Modulus of Elasticity The standard size of cylinder 150mm diameter x 300mm height guidelines taken from (BIS 516: 2004) was cast to examine the elasticity of concrete at 28 days for both conventional (M30&M60) and Geopolymer concrete Molarity10, Molarity12, & Molarity 14, Molarity 16 were tested with the help of a compression testing machine, with 2000 kN capacity. The casted specimen

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undergoes uniaxial compression and the deformations are measured through a dial gauge attached between the gauge length of 200mm. The researcher applied a gradual load at 10MPa/min and observed the deformation. The true elasticity of the initial tangent modulus with its slope of a tangent to the curve at the origin gives a modulus of elasticity.

GPC10M

GPC12M

M30- CC

STRESS ( MPA)

50 40 30 20 10 0 0

0.001

0.002 STRAIN

0.003

0.004

(a)

GPC14M

GPC16M

M60- CC

STRESS ( MPA)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0

0.001

0.002 STRAIN

0.003

0.004

(b) Figure 7: (a) & (b) Stress-strain curve for CC and GPC concrete specimens on 28thday

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4 Discussion 4.1 Workability One can achieve the fresh property of geopolymer concrete through the slump cone method. The size of the apparatus was 100x200x300mm, the workability was tested as per the guidelines taken from (BIS 1199: 2004). The workability of various fly ash with alccofine content is mentioned in Figure 4. The slump value was noted for M30 CC, M60 CC, and different Fly ash content with increasing alccofine percentage for GPC was noted. A measurable slump value is indicated in Figure 4. It was concluded that the slump value improved by 10% to 15 % when molarity varied from 1012M and 14-16M. Workability decreased due to the increase of NaOH content in the activator, by adding alccofine gives more flexibility to concrete due to the presence of CaO content. The optimum slump values obtained from all GPC mixes by adding 2% of Naphthalene sulphonate superplasticizer produce good workability to concrete.

4.2 Compressive Strength The target compressive strength of conventional concrete with its grade M30-CC and M60CC was compared with Geopolymer concrete (GPC) to its different molarities, Molarity10 and Molarity12 for M30 Mix, Molarity14 and Molarity16 for M60 mix. It has been noted that the geopolymer concrete achieves the target strength of conventional concrete at its 7thday compression test. The test was conducted on the 7th day as well as on 28th day of casting, with the highest compressive strength of GPC concrete 42 Mpa and 71.6 Mpa for the replacement of 90%Flyash with 10%Alccofine and 70%Fly ash with 30%Alccofine on the 7th day of testing mentioned in Figure 5. At the age of the 28th day, the strength was marginally increased from 42 to 43.25Mpa and 71.6 to 73Mpa shown in Figure 6. It has been noted that increasing fly ash with the optimum percentage of alccofine increases the compressive strength. It was due to Silica and alumina content in fly ash leads to a good binding effect for further increasing the strength, alccofine was added with fly ash which can densify the concrete. A pozzolanic reaction i.e. C-S-H gel formation occurs due to more CaO content present in Alccofine. In addition to that alkaline activator solution with a binder material, the polymerization process takes place(Amran et al., 2020). Due to the presence of sodium silicate hydrate (NA-S-H)and calcium silicate hydrate(CA-S-H) in the activator which can give maximum strength to the concrete (Yip et al., 2008).

4.3 Modulus of Elasticity The researcher determined the modulus of elasticity in concrete direct compression with initial tangent modulus from the stress-strain curve of GPC and CC. The stress-strain behavior of GPC and CC is shown in Figure 7. The study obtained the following modulus of elasticity values i.e., 36 GPa for M10, 47GPa for M16, and for CC is 34GPa and 44.5 GPa. Geopolymer concrete had a slightly higher stress-strain behaviour compared to conventional concrete due to the presence of aluminosilicate in fly ash and CaO content in alccofine which gives more bonding capacity.

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4.4 Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) Under different molarities, the geopolymer concrete’s microstructural characteristics were studied with the help of SEM analysis. SEM analyses were performed on prepared specimens CCM30, GPC10M, GPC12M, CCM60, GPC14M, and GPC16M to classify the reactance of fly ash in the internal microstructure and to verify it SEM samples were assessed by using JEOL-JSM-IT 200. The maximum size of the samples was 32mmX10mm. The voltage for this SEM analysis is 0.5kV to 30kV and the image was magnified up to 300000X. The SEM analysis was conducted after achieving the optimum strength and compared with GPC and CC.

(a)

(b)

(c) (d) Figure 8: SEM picture for CC and GPC (a) M30-CC (b) M60-CC (C) GPC10M (d) GPC16M The interlocking between aggregate cement matrix of GPC with conventional concrete has been compared. It has been noted that alccofine added GPC has fewer pores present inside the

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concrete compared with CC mentioned in Figures 8 (a) & 8(b). GPC with alccofine, which should be tuned with sodium silicate gel, possesses hydration heat. The heat developed due to CaO content in alccofine(Parveen et al., 2018). Figures 8(c) & 8(d) show that the spherical zone indicates calcium aluminosilicate particles in the GPC mix. The voids and cracks present in conventional concrete were more as compared with Geopolymer concrete with optimized alccofine percentage. In addition to that, the higher the addition of NaOH with sodium silicate gives densified concrete with higher strength. Therefore Molarity 10 (GPC10M) and Molarity 16 (GPC16M) gives optimal expected target strength as well as SEM compared with M30 and M60 CC. Hence GPC may achieve earlier strength, higher densification is due to the polymerization process follows sodium silicate hydrate (NA-S-H) and calcium silicate hydrate (CA-S-H) in GPC mix. Figure 8 shows the densification of a concrete matrix using SEM analysis.

5 Conclusion In this study, alccofine based geopolymer concrete was contrasted with traditional concrete. Geopolymer concrete with the optimum percentage of alccofine compared with Conventional concrete.

This study provided advanced results about the mechanical properties and

microstructural characteristics of fly ash-based GPC. Compressive strength has been directly proportional to workability. GPC at ambient curing and conventional concrete as water curing was carried out for 28 days. GPC achieves target compressive strength of conventional concrete on 7th day of testing. SEM analysis helps to examine the compactness of alccofine based GPC with internal structure through a dense matrix and little micro-cracks with lesser pores give higher strength. XRD analysis denotes the percentage of chemical components present in fly ash and alccofine. When the molarity of NaOH is enhanced, it increases the mechanical strength but decreases the workability. GPC has a stress-strain behaviour which is 5-10% higher than the conventional concrete.

6 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7 References Amran, Y. H. M., Alyousef, R., Alabduljabbar, H., & El-Zeadani, M. (2020). Clean production and properties of geopolymer concrete; A review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 251. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119679 Aslani, F., & Nejadi, S. (2012). Mechanical properties of conventional and self-compacting concrete: An analytical study. Construction and Building Materials, 36, 330-347. DOI: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2012.04.034 Assi, L., Carter, K., Deaver, E. (Eddie), Anay, R., & Ziehl, P. (2018). Sustainable concrete: Building a greener future. Journal of Cleaner Production, 198, 1641-1651. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.123 BIS 383. (1970). Specification for Coarse and Fine Aggregates from Natural Sources for Concrete, New Delhi, India BIS 7320. (1974). Specifications for concrete slump test apparatus. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, Reaffirmed 2008, 1-14. BIS 3812. (Part 1). (2003). Part 1 For Use As Pozzolana In Cement, Cement Mortar and Concrete. New Delhi, India.

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BIS 1199.  (2004). Indian Standard Methods of sampling and analysis of concrete. Indian Standards, New Delhi, India. BIS 516. (2004). Method of Tests for Strength of Concrete. ( Reaffirmed 2004 ), New Delhi, India. BIS 9103.  (1999). Specification for Concrete Admixtures. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Dehli, India.1-22. Davidovits, J. (1994). Global warming impact on the cement and aggregates industries. World Resource Review, 6(2), 263-278. Gartner, E. (2004). Industrially interesting approaches to “low-CO2” cement. Cement and Concrete Research, 34(9), 1489-1498. DOI: 10.1016/j.cemconres.2004.01.021 Jindal, B. B., Jangra, P., & Garg, A. (2020). Effects of ultra fine slag as mineral admixture on the compressive strength, water absorption and permeability of rice husk ash based geopolymer concrete. Materials Today: Proceedings, 32, 871-877. DOI: 10.1016/j.matpr.2020.04.219 Jindal, B. B., Singhal, D., Sharma, S. K., Ashish, D. K., & Parveen. (2017). Improving compressive strength of low calcium fly ash geopolymer concrete with alccofine. Advances in Concrete Construction, 5(1), 17-29. DOI: 10.12989/acc.2017.5.1.17 Jindal, B. B., Singhal, D., Sharma, S., & Parveen. (2018). Enhancing mechanical and durability properties of geopolymer concrete with mineral admixture. Computers and Concrete, 21(3), 345-353. DOI: 10.12989/cac.2018.21.3.345 Junaid, M. T., Kayali, O., Khennane, A., & Black, J. (2015). A mix design procedure for low calcium alkaliactivated fly ash-based concretes. Construction and Building Materials, 79, 301-310. DOI: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2015.01.048 Manjunatha, G. S., Radhakrishna, Venugopal, K., & Maruthi, S. V. (2014). Strength Characteristics of Open Air Cured Geopolymer Concrete. Transactions of the Indian Ceramic Society, 73(2), 149-156. DOI: 10.1080/0371750X.2014.923330 Noushini, A., Aslani, F., Castel, A., Gilbert, R. I., Uy, B., & Foster, S. (2016). Compressive stress-strain model for low-calcium fly ash-based geopolymer and heat-cured Portland cement concrete. Cement and Concrete Composites, 73, 136-146. DOI: 10.1016/j.cemconcomp.2016.07.004 Parveen, & Singhal, D. (2017). Development of mix design method for geopolymer concrete. Advances in Concrete Construction, 5(4), 377-390. DOI: 10.12989/acc.2017.5.4.377 Parveen, Singhal, D., Junaid, M. T., Jindal, B. B., & Mehta, A. (2018). Mechanical and microstructural properties of fly ash-based geopolymer concrete incorporating alccofine at ambient curing. Construction and Building Materials, 180(2018), 298-307. DOI: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2018.05.286 Ponraj, G. B., Kamal, S., Saravanan, J., & Kumaran, G. (2021). An Experimental Study on Alccofine-based Geopolymer Concrete Deep Beams. April, 1-12. DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.165 Prithiviraj, C., & Saravanan, J. (2020). Influence of W/B Ratio and Chemical Admixture on Fresh and Hardened Properties of Self Compacting Concrete using Alccofine. Journal of Xidian University, 14(5). DOI: 10.37896/JXU14.5/537 Prithiviraj, C., & Saravanan, J. (2021). Flexural Performance of Alccofine-based Self-Compacting Concrete Reinforced with Steel and GFRP Bars. 12(8), 1-12. DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.168 Saloni, Singh, A., Sandhu, V., Jatin, & Parveen. (2020). Effects of alccofine and curing conditions on properties of low calcium fly ash-based geopolymer concrete. Materials Today: Proceedings, 32, 620-625. DOI: 10.1016/j.matpr.2020.02.763 Saxena, S. K., Kumar, M., & Singh, N. B. (2018). Effect of Alccofine powder on the properties of Pond fly ash based Geopolymer mortar under different conditions. Environmental Technology and Innovation, 9, 232242. DOI: 10.1016/j.eti.2017.12.010 Suhendro, B. (2014). Toward green concrete for better sustainable environment. Procedia Engineering, 95(Scescm), 305-320. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2014.12.190

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Yip, C. K., Lukey, G. C., Provis, J. L., & van Deventer, J. S. J. (2008). Effect of calcium silicate sources on geopolymerisation. Cement and Concrete Research, 38(4), 554-564. G Balaji Ponraj is a Research Scholar at the Department of Civil & Structural Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, India. He got his Master’s degree in Structural Engineering from Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamilnadu, India. His research area focuses on Geopolymer concrete (GPC) and Alccofine as Replacement Material. Dr. S. Kamal is an Associate Professor at the Department of Structural Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, India. He got his Ph.D. degree in Construction Engineering and Management from Anna University, Guindy, Tamilnadu, India. His research focuses on Alternative/New Materials for concrete used in Structural Applications & Construction Engineering Management.

Dr. J. Saravanan is an Associate Professor at the Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, India. He got his Master’s and PhD degrees in Civil and Structural Engineering from Annamalai University, Chidambaram, India. His research focuses on Alternative / New Materials for Concrete and Structural Applications (Composite Materials, CRM, FRP Reinforcements & Geopolymer Concrete).

Dr. S. Thirugnanasambandam is a Professor at the Department of Structural Engineering, Annamalai University, Chidambaram, Tamil Nadu, India. He got his PhD degree in Civil and Structural Engineering from Annamalai University, Tamilnadu, India. His research focuses on Alternative/New Materials for Concrete used in Structural Applications (Geopolymer Concrete).

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Optimization of Low-Pressure Compressor Blades M.L. Zhivirikhin1, A.S. Tikhonov1* 1

Computer Engineering Center, FSBEI HE Peter the Great Saint Petersburg Polytechnic University, SaintPetersburg, RUSSIA. *Corresponding Author (Email: Tikhonov@compmechlab.com).

Paper ID: 12A10K Volume 12 Issue 10

Abstract

In this article, the optimization of the low-pressure compressor blades is considered. The main research method was the joint use of Received 05 May 2021 the ANSYS CFX and IOSO PM software complexes. To improve the LPC Received in revised form 24 July 2021 characteristics, new models of blades with control of the midline curvature Accepted 28 July 2021 through the camber were developed, which improved the aerodynamics for Available online 02 August supersonic flow modes. An original method of optimization problem 2021 decomposition is also proposed, which allows to significantly save the Keywords: computing resources used. Optimization of the blades reduced the loss of Gas turbine engine; Lowkinetic energy and allowed to increase efficiency while preserving the pressure compressor; Blade profile; Parametric model; performance parameters and dimensions of the LPC. Gas-dynamic solver; Blade optimization; Headcapacity characteristic.

Cite This Article: Zhivirikhin, M.L., Tikhonov, A.S. (2021). Optimization of Low-Pressure Compressor Blades. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10K, 1-15. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.200

1 Introduction When designing a gas turbine engine to reduce the cost of its life cycle, one of the most important factors is the compressor efficiency [1], which leads to the need to achieve high efficiency, performance, and the minimum possible compressor mass-dimensional parameters. Usually, this could be achieved with the growth of the compressor pressure ratio. However, it leads the engineers to challenge aerodynamic, strength, and vibration issues since the aerodynamic loading of the compressor stages also increases [2, 3]. For this reason, the first stages of the turbofan engines compressor often have vibration problems and, therefore, the shape of the rotor blades is commonly a compromise between high aerodynamic efficiency and reliability [3, 4, 5]. To achieve high efficiency of the compressor, it is necessary to suppress profile and wave losses in the blade rings, which leads to the development of increasingly complex working surfaces and a multiple increases in the complexity of the design process. At the same time, an increase in

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the number of variables in parametric models has a contradictory effect on the parameters of the object under study. To solve this problem successfully, the use of multi-criteria optimization methods is proposed based on the joint use of a gas-dynamic solver and an optimizer program as part of automated calculation chains. Based on such models, it is possible to automatically change the geometry of the compressor blades, which leads to an increase in efficiency while maintaining the design mode parameters. This can be traced in many publications [6–13] concerning the optimization of compressors, including using IOSO NM/PM, which allows increasing the efficiency of the compressor by 0.5...4% in the initial radial dimensions. The purpose of this work is to increase the efficiency of the compressor by optimizing its blades while maintaining the performance parameters and mass-dimensional limitations. In this work, a 4-stage low-pressure compressor (LPC) of the GTE for the drive of industrial equipment was studied, see Figure 1. This compressor has the following features: o IGV controlled; o anti-vibration shelves of the 1st and 2nd stages.

Figure 1: Original LPC This compressor is a high-pressure one, in which the 1st (M = 0.7...1.15), 2nd (M = 0.78...0.92) and partially 3rd stages (M = 0.7...0.88) are trans- and supersonic blades.

2 Materials and Methods In this work, a geometric scheme based on the variation of the cambers along the chord was used. This scheme was necessary for the implementation of the heterogeneous curvature of the profile based on the features of profiling supersonic blades. The development of the blade parametric model implies the choice of a geometric scheme for forming a profile, as well as the definition of a set of variables and constants that characterize the blade profile.

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During optimization, the parameters of the profile midline curvature were varied. The coordinates of the flow part contours, the distribution of thicknesses along with the profile, the relative position of the profiles in height compared to the original design did not change. The geometry of the blade is described by the 3rd (stator blades) and 5th (rotor blades) equidistant sections (see figure2). The profile midline is determined by the 4th variables: o Ga – profile installation angle, o Ch – chord, mm; o h1, h2, h3 – camber along the profile chord, mm.

Figure2: Example of parameterization of RC1, profile at the bushing (h = 0%) The total number of variables allocated for parameterization of the LPC blades is 114. For the construction of finite element (FE) models, a block-structured grid builder [14] was used, a structured grid template based on a HEX element using the 4NO topology was used. The grids are constructed in a periodic formulation, the radial clearance on the blades is considered (see the example in Figure 3). To perform the study, two options for configuring the FE model were used: o simplified FE model with Y+Cc<5, aspect ratio<2000 – for multicriteria optimization; o detailed FE model with Y+Cc<2.5, aspect ratio<2000 – for final calculated comparison.

Figure 3: The example of RC1 FE model

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To perform the viscous flow calculation in the compressor, the ANSYS CFX software package was used, the general view of the calculation model is shown in Figure 4. The main settings of the calculation model are given below: o o o o o o o o o

stationary (RANS) calculation [15]; law of the total energy of heat exchange; k-ε [15-20] turbulence model; 1...7·10-4 - physical time step; number of calculation iterations is 100...150; smooth walls of the blades and contours of the flow part without heat exchange; cyclic symmetry of the blade regions; stator-rotor interaction via "Stage" interfaces with speed averaging; ideal gas (air) is used as the working fluid, where μ, Cr, and λ depend on the temperature;

Figure 4: Calculation model of the LPC The optimization process was divided into 3 stages: o 1.5 stages; o 2 stages; o 2 stages. Optimization was carried out in a given area with an overlap of 1 vane, the number of variable variables in one session did not exceed 50. The calculation area included the entire compressor (see figure5). The LPC efficiency maximization (η*k ↑) was set as the objective function. The following limitations were set: o o o o

air consumption total pressure drop residual twist angle output speed

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Gin ±0.5%; π*K ±0.05; α2= ±3°; M2 < 0.52.

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Figure 5: LPC decomposition diagram

3 Results and Discussions After carrying out three optimization stages, new geometric models of the compressor blades were obtained, an increase in efficiency Δη*k = +2.67% was achieved in the calculated mode. IOSO PM demonstrated high efficiency of accumulative and heuristic procedures: o after 200 requests, there is a significant increase in the density of obtaining successful solutions (see figure6); o at all stages, the solution consists of 42...50 variables were found on average for 400 ... 500 requests to the mathematical model; o a small number of non-calculated points.

Figure 6: Dynamics of solution of the 1st stage optimization The greatest increase in efficiency was achieved in RC1, a crown with a supersonic flow and a large elongation, due to the suppression of most parasitic effects. The main improvement was obtained by reducing the intensity of supersonic regions and shifting them to the channel depth see Figures 7-10.

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Figure 7: Distribution of the Mach number on the averaged meridional plane.

Figure 8: Mach number in the inter-blade channel at the bushing

Figure 9: Mach number in the inter-blade channel at the average radius

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Figure 10: Mach number in the inter-blade channel at the periphery

Figure 11: Comparison of equivalent stresses Further, a preliminary comparative strength calculation of the initial and optimized compressor was carried out. The strength calculation was performed in the ANSYS workbench Static Structural software package.

As boundary conditions, the following are applied to the

blades: rotation speed, gas forces, and the average temperature at the maximum operating mode of

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the engine. According to the calculation results of optimized blades, an increase in the equivalent stresses RC1 and RC2 by 15.5% and circumferential displacements by 7% is observed. To prevent an increase in bending moments from gas forces, the bending gas force is compensated by centrifugal force by shifting the peripheral sections in the circumferential direction against rotation.

The optimized compressor blades after compensation showed a

significant reduction in stresses, the difference with the original version max 4% (Figure 11). Then the final gas dynamic calculation of the pressure branches of the characteristic was carried out to compare the performance and efficiency in the operating modes of the original and optimized compressors: o mod2 - original LPC; o opt2 - optimized LPC. As a result of the calculation of the characteristics, the following conclusions were obtained: o for 0.8 and 0.9n branches, the optimization goals were achieved, the efficiency increase was Δηk*=+2...4%, the stability reserves were significantly increased; o for the 0.95n branch, a decrease in the consumption of ΔGv = - 3.5% and the efficiency of Δη*k = -1% was obtained. To ensure that the compressor optimization requirements were met, a local increase in the diameter of the RC1 periphery (by 7.5 mm, see Figure 12) was performed on the 0.95n pressure branch.

Figure 12: LPC model with a locally enlarged bypass RC1 Next, an additional calculation of the pressure branches of such LPC model is performed (indicated opt2+up, see Figure 13).

Figure 13: LPC characteristics

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The calculation showed that the compressor optimization results are well scaled. It was possible to increase the throughput of the 1st stage with a slight loss of efficiency by local opening of the flow part (see Table 1). Table 1: Comparison of the LPC parameters at the estimated calculation points *n 0.7

0.9

0.95

Design option mod2 opt2 opt2+up mod2 opt2 opt2+up mod2 opt2 opt2+up

π*k 2.44 2.44 2.45 3.34 3.38 3.38 3.84 3.79 3.84

n*k, % 84.23 88.15 87.35 88.54 90.61 90.31 87.39 86.34 87.98

Δη*k, % +3.92 +3.12 +2.07 +1.77 -1.05 +0.59

Further, a detailed strength analysis of the developed structure was carried out. These models were created based on the Ansys workbench, using the second-order elements Solid 186 and Solid 187. The model of each RC includes a disk and a blade. When constructing the calculation models, the cyclic symmetry condition was applied. Thus, for the model of each RC, a sector with one blade was considered. Geometric models of the RC sectors are shown in Figure 14.

a) b) c) d) a) - RC of the first stage; b) - RC of the second stage; c) - RC of the third stage; d) - RC of the fourth stage Figure 14: Geometric models of the impeller sector The following loads were considered: o temperature (evenly distributed over the disk and blade of each RC); o inertial load from rotation. The contacts in the blade locks were created on the mating surfaces of the blade and disk, considering friction. The friction coefficient was taken to be 0.3. Fixing of the blade in the axial direction (for the first three RCs) was carried out by creating coupling equations between the nodes of the disk and the blade at the landing site of the locking ring. The contact on the shroud was accepted as rigid linear (option bonded). Figure 15 shows the separation of the shroud geometry in the model to ensure contact under conditions of cyclic

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symmetry.

To ensure good convergence of the solution, and to obtain smooth gradients of the

stress distribution in the contact zones of the locks, Solid 186 hexahedral FE was created. The size of the element was 0.5 mm. In places with irregular geometry in the contact zones, a size of 0.3 mm was accepted for the tetrahedral elements Solid 187. Figure 16 shows the grid quality in the locks.

Figure 15: Separation of shroud geometry in the model to ensure contact in conditions of cyclic symmetry

d) a) - RC of the first stage; b) - RC of the second stage; c) - RC of the third stage; d) - RC of the fourth stage Figure 16: Grid quality for the locking joints of the blades

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Table 2 shows the calculated total and radial displacements of the RC of the four stages. The analysis showed a significant change in the movements of the RC compressor. In general, there is a tendency to decrease the radial displacements and increase the circumferential ones (see Table 2). The SSS analysis in the RC blades of 1 and 2 stages of the compressor showed a slight increase in the stress level compared to the original design (max 5%, see Table 3). For the remaining stages, there is a decrease in the stress level, and for the 3rd stage – an extremely sharp one (-47%), explained by the absence of the shroud in the optimized version of the blade. Table 2: Comparison of the values of maximum displacements No. of LPC stage 1 2 3 4

Displacements Sum / Rad Sum / Rad Sum / Rad Sum / Rad

Discrepancy (opt. relative to init.), % +71.3 / -1.4 +25.2 / -9.7 -68.0 / -12.8 -91.4 / -22.7

Table 3: Comparison of the values of the maximum stresses in blade elements No. of LPC stage

Stresses Discrepancy, % VM +2.8** 1 S1 +4.2** VM +3.4** 2 S1 +4.7** VM -46.9* 3 S1 -47.0* VM -10.7* 4 S1 -6.0* * – the colors indicate deviations (* - negative, ** - positive up to 10%, *** - positive more than 10%)

Table 4: Comparison of the values of the maximum stresses in blade lock elements No. of LPC stage

Stresses Discrepancy, % VM +27.3*** 1 S1 +19.6*** VM -4.70* 2 S1 -25.7* VM -21.3* 3 S1 -22.0* VM -19.7* 4 S1 -18.0* * – the colors indicate deviations (* - negative, ** - positive up to 10%, *** - positive more than 10%)

Table 5: Comparison of the values of the maximum stresses in disk lock elements No. of LPC stage

Stresses Discrepancy, % VM -5.6* 1 S1 -3.8* VM -0.5* 2 S1 -2.4* VM -10.1* 3 S1 -12.0* VM -5.7* 4 S1 -16.0* * – the colors indicate deviations (* - negative, ** - positive up to 10%, ** - positive more than 10%)

The SSS pattern in the blade and disc lock shows local stress spikes in the contact zone. The peak values of stresses in these areas are not indicative and should be attributed to the artifacts of

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the FE analysis. The analysis of zones with a characteristic smooth and continuous distribution pattern shows a decrease in stresses compared to the initial geometry of the compressor RC for all stages, except for 1 RC, where an increase in the stress level in the blade lock by 27% is shown (see Tables 4 and 5). The SSS analysis in RC disks also shows a moderate decrease in the stress level (from 3 to 9%) in the optimized design (see Table 6). Table 6: Comparison of the values of the maximum stresses in disk elements No. of LPC stage

Stresses Discrepancy, % VM -6.79 1 S1 -6.31 VM -4.25 2 S1 -3.89 VM -7.02 3 S1 -7.00 VM -9.29 4 S1 -9..85 * – the colors indicate deviations (* - negative, ** - positive up to 10%, *** - positive more than 10%)

Next, the dynamics were calculated for both the optimized and the initial design of the LPC RC, which FE models are similar in terms of geometry and boundary conditions to the models for strength described earlier. The order of the grid model is reduced to speed up the dynamic’s calculations. All created contact pairs work as rigid linear contact (option bonded). The calculation for the natural frequencies of the impellers was carried out in two versions – with an unloaded RC in normal atmospheric conditions and considering the SSS of the design when working in the design mode. The range in which the natural frequencies are searched is assigned based on the estimate of the maximum number of stator blades in the LPC and the rotation speed of the rotor in the operating mode. Thus, the range of finding the natural frequencies of the RC is limited to 14.5 kHz. As a result of the calculation, the natural frequencies and corresponding oscillation forms of the RC are obtained in two design forms – optimized and non-optimized LPC. According to the results of the comparative modal analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: o optimized blades of the RC of 1, 2, and 4 stages of the LPC showed an increase in the frequencies of the first 6 natural forms of vibrations; o blades of the 3rd stage, due to the absence of the shroud in the optimized design, showed a decrease in the frequencies of the first 4 natural forms of vibrations; o total number of resonant forms of vibrations of the optimized blades of 1, 2, and 3 stages is less than that of the original design; o resonance of the 1st stage of the original RC (1 form 3 harmonic, see Figure 17) disappeared in the optimized design (see Figure 18).

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Figure 17: Resonant form-1 of the initial RC of the 1st stage of the LPC

Figure 18: Resonant form-1 of the optimized RC of the 1st stage of the LPC

4 Conclusion Based on the results of the work, the LPC was optimized, which provides an increase in the adiabatic efficiency of the compressor by Δη*k = +2.57%, while meeting all requirements and limitations. The main results obtained in the course of the work: According to the results of the primary optimization, an increase in the LPC efficiency was achieved by Δη*k = +2.67%.

Work has been carried out on preliminary SSS improvement of

optimized blades RC1 and RC2 by compensating gas forces with centrifugal forces due to the displacement of the centers of mass of the blade cross-sections.

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The calculation of the LPC characteristics on the pressure branches 0.8, 0.9, and 0.95 n was performed, where the efficiency of the developed LPC was confirmed on the branches 0.8 and 0.9 (Δη*k = +2...4%), and insufficient air consumption was observed on the 0.95 branches. An additional variant of an optimized LPC with locally enlarged peripherals has been developed, which fully meets the requirements for efficiency and performance in the entire operating range Δη*k = +0.6...3.1%. The static and dynamic analysis of the initial and final optimized LPC structures is carried out, the disappearance of the dangerous resonance of the RC of the 1st stage in the optimized design is shown.

5 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6 Acknowledgement This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation in the framework of the Federal Program “Research and Development in Priority Directions for the Development of the Scientific and Technological Complex of Russia for 2014-2020”. Agreement on the provision of a grant in the form of subsidy No. 075-15-2019-1710 dated December 2, 2019 (internal number 05.608.21.0275). Unique identifier: RFMEFI60819X0275.

7 References [1] Cumpsty NA. Compressor aerodynamics. Malabar: Krieger Publishing Company. 2004. [2] Kato D, Pallot G, Sugihara A and Aotsuka M. Research and development of a high performance axial compressor. IHI Eng. Review. 2014; 47(1): 49-56. [3] Yu X and Liu B. Research on three-dimensional blade designs in an ultra-highly loaded low-speed axial compressor stage: Design and numerical investigations. Adv. in Mech. Eng. 2016; 8(10): 1-16. [4] Amoo LM. On the design and structural analysis of jet engine fan blade structures. Prog. in Aerosp. Sc. 2013; 60: 1-11. [5] Zheng X and Li Zh. Blade-end treatment to improve the performance of axial compressors: An overview Prog. in Aerosp. Sc. 2017; 88: 1-14. [6] Boyko AV, Govorushchenko YuN, Ershov SV, Rusanov AV, Severin SD. Aerodynamic calculation and optimal design of the flow part of turbomachines. Monograph - Kharkiv, KhPI, 2002; 356p. [7] Egorov IN, Fedechkin KS, et al. Optimization of the gas turbine engine parts using methods of numerical simulation. ASME paper GT-2007-28205. 2007. [8] Kato D, Pallot G, Sugihara A, Aotsuka M. Research and development of a high-performance axial compressor. IHI Eng. Review. 2014; 47(1): 49-56. [9] Yu X and Liu B. Research on three-dimensional blade designs in an ultra-highly loaded low-speed axial compressor stage: Design and numerical investigations. Adv. in Mech. Eng. 2016; 8(10): 1-16. [10] Burguburu S, Toussaint C, et al. Numerical Optimization of Turbomachinery Bladings. ASME paper GT2004-22605. 2004. [11] Baturin OV, Popov GM, Goryachkin ES, Smirnova YuD. Reprofiling a three-stage axial compressor using mathematical optimization methods. Proceedings of MAI. 2015; 82.

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[12] Shabliy LS. Problems of optimization of multi-stage compressors in the creation of promising gas turbine engines. Bulletin of the Samara State Aerospace University. 2012; 3(34): 192-196. [13] Matveev VN, Popov GM, Goryachkin ES. Optimization of the installation angles of the blade crowns of a multi-stage high-pressure compressor of the GTE. Proceedings of the Samara Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2013; 6(4): 929-936. [14] NUMECA. Numeca’s Flow Integrated Environment for Turbomachinery and Internal Flows. User Manual, Numeca Int., Brussels, Belgium. 2008. [15]

ANSYS. Solver Theory Guide: ANSYS CFX documentation Release 17.2. ANSYS Inc., USA. 2016.

[16] Snegirev AYu. High-performance computing in technical physics. Numerical modeling of turbulent flows. 2009. St. Petersburg: Publishing House of the Polytechnic University. [17] Piovesan T, Magrini A, Benini E. Accurate 2-D modelling of transonic compressor cascade aerodynamics Aerospace. 2019; 6(57). DOI: 10.3390/aerospace6050057 [18] Launder BE, Spalding DB. The numerical computation of turbulent flows, Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering. 1974; 3(2): 269-289. [19] Boussinesq, J. Theorie de l'Ecoulemen Tourbillant, Mem. Presentes par Divers Savants Acad. Sci. Inst. Fr. 1877; 23:46-50. [20] Spalart, PR. Strategies for turbulence modelling and simulation. Intern. Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow. 2000; 21: 252-263. Mikhail Leonidovich Zhivirikhin is an engineer at FGAOU Vo "SPbPU". His research interests are Gas Turbine Engines, Blades, Gas Dynamics, Parametric Optimization

Dr. Aleksey Sergeevich Tikhonov is a Leading Researcher of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "SPbPU". He is a Candidate of Technical Sciences. His research interests are Gas Turbine Engines, Gas Dynamics, Engineering Software Development.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Campus Sustainability Framework: Bibliometric Literature Review Analysis Abdullah Alomar1*, Al Amin Mydin1, Samira Alaklabi1 School of Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA. *Corresponding Author (Email: a.o.alomar@live.com). 1

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10L Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 09 May 2021 Received in revised form 14 July 2021 Accepted 22 July 2021 Available online 03 August 2021

Keywords:

University EMS; Public Participation; Social Responsibility; Campus sustainability; Sustainability Teaching and Research; Environmental Management Systems (EMS).

Based on a systematic literature review, this study investigates the application of the campus sustainability framework developed by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008). Scholarly work on campus sustainability has directed a lot of attention and, therefore, this framework must be verified for practical use at university. Using the Google Scholar and Scopus databases, a rigorous search of articles with specific criteria has been conducted. After going through the prescribed quality screening and setting, a total of 26 published articles from 2010-2020 were identified. These articles applied the proposed campus sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar. A total of three main components are selected as the criteria in this study, namely University Environmental Management Systems (EMS), Public Participation and Social Responsibility, as well as Sustainability Teaching and Research. The most dominant variable/component, which is applied in the field of campus sustainability is EMS. More than 80% of the articles have used EMS as the main framework in campus sustainability management. This is significant with the management planning of each organization that triggered the campus sustainability initiative at the top level, including the setting of relevant policies. Disciplinary: Education, Sustainability in Higher Education, Sustainable Cities and Society. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Alomar, A., Mydin, A. A., and Alaklabi, S. (2021). Campus Sustainability Framework: Bibliometric Literature Review Analysis. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10L, 1-12. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.201

1 Introduction The phrase ‘campus sustainability’ has become increasingly popular with the discovery of more than 7490 exploration results on the Google Scholar database. This tendency of increasing search has proven that studies about campus sustainability have recently directed considerable attention. According to the sustainable development concept, which has been adopted by most

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countries all over the world, universities are required to be role models to educate society in practicing campus sustainability. The university is seen as a unique institution, which can address the challenges of implementing environmental, economic, and social sustainability (Leal Filho, 2011). Various appropriate initiatives need to be framed to integrate the concept of sustainable development, mainly in management, as well as the development of university education. Universities serve as small towns with a variety of daily activities. These activities inevitably affect the environment (Saadatian et al., 2013). Activities inside a university like transportation, sewage, use of energy resources, including electricity and water, and even learning activities on campus all exert an impact on environmental sustainability. This eventually requires a systematic and proactive approach from all parties to ensure that campus sustainability is seriously considered by those who are responsible. Such conceptual frameworks have been previously pioneered by scholars to measure the level of campus sustainability practices. These include Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) framework of sustainability assessment at universities, GASU - Graphical Assessment of Sustainability at Universities (Lozano et al., 2015), AISHE - Auditing Instrument for Sustainability in Higher Education and CSAF - Campus Sustainability Assessment Framework (Saadatian et al., 2013) to name a few. Although there are many references and studies on the campus sustainability notion, Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) proposal has received the highest number of citations (Lozano et al., 2015). A search string of “Alshuwaikhat AND campus sustainability” on the Google Scholar database found a total of 44 related articles. Also, Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) article about campus sustainability has been cited by 827 scholarly articles in the field of sustainability and the environment. Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) proposed framework comprises three major components, namely University Environmental Management Systems (EMS), i.e., Public Participation, and Social Responsibility, in addition to Sustainability Teaching and Research.

2 Conceptual Background 2.1 University EMS The main introduced framework is University EMS, which involves the university’s policy stipulation and management on campus sustainability issues. Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008) have initiated two core elements in the University EMS, namely ‘Environmental Management and Improvement’, as well as ‘Green Campus’. All the initiatives that are mentioned in the University EMS are the ongoing planning of the management, aiming at campus sustainability (Agdas et al., 2015). Various activities on campus, e.g., the arrival of university staff in the morning, the design of vehicle routes, the utilization of energy resources, the construction of recreational parks at university, waste collection, setting the temperature in lecture halls, etc. all require careful planning (Alawin et al., 2016).

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Peak hours on campus usually occur when staff members arrive at university early in the morning and when they leave university at the end of their working hours. At this point, the entrances and exits of the campus are very congested with vehicles. Thus, some universities practice flexible working hours to reduce the risk of air pollution (Agdas et al., 2015). Carpooling is strongly encouraged (Desha & Hargroves, 2010) among university staff members, and the use of public transport on campus, e.g., shuttle buses contribute to a better ecosystem. Therefore, the campus management needs to apply the best practices in this University EMS known as Environmental Management and Improvement to ensure that campus conservation is effectively guaranteed. All initiatives aim to minimize the daily operations’ adverse effects on campus. According to Castro and Jabbour (2013), activities, which are listed as Environmental Management and Improvement, include 1) minimizing adverse effects of campus operations, 2) preventing pollution, 3) efficient use of energy, 4) conserving resources, 5) improving the environment, 6) reducing waste, together with 7) reutilizing (recycling). The second major element of the University EMS is the ‘Green Campus’ initiative, which encompasses related activities of green transportation, green buildings, and campus conservation (Castro & Jabbour, 2013).

2.2 Sustainability Teaching and Research Another component of Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) proposed framework is sustainability teaching, as well as research. Such university activities can negatively affect environmental sustainability. Activities conducted, such as seminars, workshops, curriculum, and courses, should be given more attention by the management. The use of paper, stationery, disposable materials, research substance, laboratory activities, and various learning equipment has an impact on the environment. Therefore, research and development (R&D), especially in the field of renewable energy, climate change, and environmental protection need to be effectively emphasized. Castro and Jabbour (2013) have summarized the activities carried out at university in conformity with Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) framework as illustrated in Table 1. This study aims to systematically examine the components of Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) framework, which are applied by universities in conserving the environment. The findings of this study can be used as a reference to researchers in the field of campus sustainability. Besides, relevant parties, which are directly involved in the university management system can benefit from the results of this study. Moreover, important criteria have been provided regarding the rigorous article search and screening to ensure that the manuscript is of good quality. This systematic literature review primarily aims to provide an overview of the research conducted by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008) about campus sustainability. The following research questions are addressed: 1. To what extent has the framework of campus sustainability by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008) been applied in universities? 2. What is the trend of previous empirical studies about campus sustainability from 2010 through 2020?

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3. Is the research output of documents on Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) campus sustainability framework based on a comprehensive thematic analysis? Table 1: Description of main activities of campus sustainability. Framework for evaluating campus sustainability Universiti EMS

Description of the main activities

Examples of activities

Environmental management & Improvement

Minimize negative impacts of operations

Green Campus

Public participation & social responsibility

Public participation

Community services Social justice Sustainability teaching & research

Conferences, seminars & workshop

Pollution prevention Energy efficiency Resources conservation Environmental improvement Waste reduction Recycling Green building Green transportation Campus preservation Campus community Alumni Partnership Public lectures & awareness Community projects Other services Equity Care for disability Conferences, seminars & workshops, etc

Curriculum & courses

Research & development (R&D)

Sustainability Health and safety Livable settlements Renewable energy Environmental protection Climate change

3 Methodology The methodology of this study is based on three main procedures as follows: 1. Conduct systematic literature review (SLR) protocol. 2. Perform data management and descriptive analysis of related articles. 3. Classify articles based on themes within the conceptual framework proposed by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008).

3.1 SLR Protocol SLR is one of the literature review (LR) methods used to identify, select, and evaluate articles/documents included in the review process to answer specific research questions (Dewey & Drahota, 2016). The main difference between the most practiced SLR and LR approaches involves the implementation of a more rigorous methodology. SLR requires a structured process that refers to specific sources in the formation of SLR, the formation of research questions, systematic search, article quality assessment, as well as data analysis. Consequently, the researcher has set some important protocols in conducting this study as follows:

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1. Selection of database as article search source. Only articles from the Google Scholar and Scopus databases are selected for the analysis. The reason behind using these databases is because these databases can be accessed online, and they contain many citation articles. Also, the selected databases are constantly updated (Cothran, 2011). 2. Only articles published between 2010 and 2020 are considered. 3. Setting the search strings that are “campus sustainability” AND “universit*” as the main keywords of the conducted search. To delve into the most detailed scope of Alshuwaikhat’s campus sustainability framework, a combination of these words “EMS” “Public Participation” “Social Responsibility” “Sustainable Teaching and Research” are used. Table 2 shows the setting of search strings, which are used as a protocol in this study. Table 2: Search string setting for SLR Search string 1 Search string 2 Search string 3

“campus sustainability” (title/abstract/keywords) AND “universit*” AND “framework” (title/abstract/keywords) "EMS" OR "Public Participation" OR "Social Responsibility" "Sustainable Teaching and Research" “Alshuwaikhat” (abstract/reference)

4. This study exclusively involves scholarly articles published by indexed journals. Books, conference papers, concept papers, and working papers are not accepted as search criteria. However, doctoral and master’s dissertation manuscripts are included as the university follows strict rules, and it stipulates high-quality research requirements. 5. Only research papers in English are accepted. Therefore, studies written in languages other than English are not included in the selection criteria. The article selection criteria are comprehensively described in Table 3. Table 3: Inclusion and exclusion criterion for SLR. Criterion Time frame

Inclusion 2010 - 2020

Language Type of publication

English only 1) Indexed journals only 2) Dissertation

Exclusion articles published before 2010 are not taken into account Any other languages 1) Books 2) Concept papers 3) Conference papers 4) Working papers

3.2 Data Management and Descriptive Analysis To store data in a systematic and secure approach, the researchers selected the Google Drive site. This selection has been made to achieve more effective functionality and security of data. Google Drive is similar to Microsoft Excel in its utilization of apps, such as Google Sheets, which systematically store data (sorting, as well as filtering functions) beyond limits. Also, this service is free. Moreover, Google Drive is extremely practical due to its use of data storage via the cloud, in

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which, users do not have to worry about loss of local storage. Besides, users can access the data anytime. Descriptive analysis has been performed for all the screened articles collected on the Google Drive website. The conducted analysis comprises six categories, including the year of the study, the researchers’ names, the study title, the journal’s title, the country, where the study is originated, and the number of citations of the study. By using an Excel spreadsheet on Google Drive, all the articles were subject to screening, as well as filtering according to specified categories.

3.3 Articles Classification according to Campus Framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008)

Sustainability

Articles, which are obtained from the screening process, have been analyzed following Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) campus sustainability framework. The variables involved are the EMS, public participation, and social responsibility, in addition to sustainability teaching and research. To ensure the quality of article classification, all the selected articles have been read rigorously by the researchers. Each phrase related to the campus sustainability framework is marked and included in the classification table. After classifying the themes, a second-round review has been conducted to ensure that the analysis process adheres to the agreed stipulations.

4 Results and Discussion 4.1 SLR and Descriptive Analysis Figure 1 shows the SLR process. The search began with the setting of string number 1 (refer to Table 2). This search resulted in 3570 articles, which are associated with campus sustainability. Then, article screening has been carried out with the setting of search string number 2, which resulted in a total of 383 articles. Finally, the search refinement using string number 3 has been applied and the number of articles obtained at this stage is 167 articles. Based on the inclusion criteria that have been determined in the early stages of the SLR, all articles, which are not produced within (2010-2020) have been removed. Only articles in English are accepted, as well as the articles, which are published in indexed journals, in addition to M.A. and Ph.D. dissertations. All relevant articles are reviewed by a group of researchers based on the article quality assessment. The quality setting, which has been agreed upon, is that every article must cite Alshuwaikhat’s framework of campus sustainability and must have consistency in the methodology, the sampling method, data analysis, and valid results. Conclusively, a total of 26 articles have been successfully collected and will be analyzed.

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Identification Screening Inclusion Criteria

Database Selection i. Google Scholar ii. Scopus 2. Context of Campus Sustainability

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Search string 1 = 3570 articles Search string 2 = 383 articles Search string 3 = 167 articles Only articles related to campus sustainability are selected = 151 articles Duplication of articles excluded = 145 articles

1. 2. 3. 4.

Articles in English Publication year between 2010 - 2020 Articles must be published in indexed journal Doctoral and master's dissertations are included

Article Quality Assessment

Number of articles = 32

1. 2.

Title and abstract review related to framework proposed by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar Only empirical studies are selected (Determine clear methodology, sample, data analysis and valid results) Number of articles = 26

Figure 1: The flow of the SLR process for this study. A total of 26 analyzed articles were published in 12 different journals. However, the main journal that published studies related to campus sustainability is the “Journal of Cleaner Production” with 6 articles, representing 23% of the total number of articles published from 2010 to 2020. This journal has been indexed Q1 by Scopus. Moreover, journals on sustainability and the environment, e.g., “International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education”, as well as “Sustainability” published two of the articles each. The “Journal of Environmental Studies” has only published one article, supporting the framework of Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar over the past decade. Other journals are not in the field of the environment; these journals published only one article each as shown in Figure 2. However, the SLR results showed that there is a significant growing interest in research related to the proposed framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008). A total of eight post-graduate studies were conducted from 2010 until 2020, which contributed to 31% of the total number of articles.

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International Journal of Academic Research in Business…

1 1 1 1 1

Research Gate Publication Amfiteatru Economic Procedia Manufacturing Journal of Environmental Studies Sustainability

Journal of Business Perspective

Thesis Dissertation

Jurnal Teknologi Malaysia (Sciences and Engineering)

International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education

Journal of Cleaner Production

International Journal of Business Excellence

1 0

Figure 2: Number of studies per journal. There are 15 countries involved with the selected studies. However, the origin of only two articles is unknown. Surprisingly, the campus sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar had been practiced mostly in developing countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and Brazil. Figure 3 shows the country, where the articles are produced. The results showed that the following countries from the Asian continent, including China with 1 article, India with 2 articles, Indonesia with 3, Malaysia with 5, KSA with 1, and Syria with only 1 article are increasingly adopting the Alshuwaikhat’s framework with 50% of the studies produced in Asian countries, followed by studies produced in the European continent at 15 percent (Lithuania = 1, Portugal = 1, Romania = 1, Spain = 1), South America 11% (Brazil = 3), North America 8% (USA = 2), followed by studies that were produced in Africa (Nigeria = 1) and Oceania 4% (New Zealand = 1), respectively as shown in Figure 4.

3 2 1

2 1

Figure 3: Number of studies by country

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Not Specified 8% North America 8%

South America 11%

Africa 4% Oceania 4%

Europe 15% Asia 50%

Figure 4: Number of studies by continent. No related articles were published in 2010 and 2012 as shown in Figure 5. Most articles were published in 2017, i.e., (6 articles), followed by the year 2015 with (4 articles). The results showed that there is not any significant and clear trend in the publication of articles based on the year of publication. The reason might be the availability of other environmental sustainability frameworks preferred by researchers (Kolokotsa et al., 2016) instead of Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar’s (2008) framework. However, the data obtained in this SLR study still supports the growing interest in the campus sustainability framework based on the distribution of relevant empirical studies over the past decade. 7 6

6 5 4

4 3

3 2

2 1

1 0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 2018

2019

2020

Figure 5: Number of studies per year

4.2 Thematic Analysis and Article Classification All 26 articles were analyzed thematically according to the campus sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar, which consists of three major components, including University EMS, public participation, and social responsibility, in addition to sustainability teaching and research. The selected articles have been scrutinized by a group of researchers. After being thematically analyzed, the previous studies, which used the proposed campus sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008), are illustrated in Table 4. A total of

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4 articles have used the three main components of Alshuwaikhat’s framework. However, 5 articles only have applied EMS variables and public participation and social responsibility. On the other hand, a total of 6 articles have applied the EMS component and sustainability teaching and research, whereas 6 articles only used the EMS framework exclusively. Also, 4 articles only have entirely used sustainability teaching and research and only 1 article applied the components of public participation and social responsibility. Table 4: The number of articles, which employed the component in Alshuwaikhat’s framework. Variable used in articles that relevant to Alshuwaikhat’s Campus Sustainability Framework EMS + public participation & social responsibility + sustainability teaching & research EMS + public participation & social responsibility EMS + sustainability teaching & research Public participation & social responsibility + sustainability teaching & research EMS only Public participation & social responsibility only Sustainability teaching & research only

Number of articles implemented the component in the framework 4 5 6 0 6 1 4

The most dominant variable is the EMS variable as 21 articles (80.77%) from a total of 26 applied this variable. This shows that university management has begun to focus on planning towards achieving campus sustainability goals (Aris & Bhaskoro, 2014). However, the public participation and the social responsibility variable were not used. In other words, ten articles only (38.46%) used the above-mentioned variable. Universities listed in these studies have prioritized sustainability teaching and research in the process of implementing campus sustainability. This can be justified by the existence of 14 articles (53.85%), in which this variable is applied.

5 Conclusion Conducting a comprehensively systematic review is the focus of this study. The selected articles about campus sustainability include the framework, which has been developed by Alshuwaikhat (2008). The main findings of this study are as follows: •

The developed sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar (2008) has been used in various universities. The framework has been mainly applied in developing countries in the Asian region, including China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

•

There are 26 articles on the campus sustainability framework by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar. This framework has been applied in previous studies in a number of universities between 2010 and 2020. However, the results showed that there is not a significant publication trend during this period.

•

The most dominant variable/component, which is applied in the field of campus sustainability is EMS. More than 80% of the articles have used EMS as the main framework in campus sustainability management. This is significant with the

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management planning of each organization that triggered the campus sustainability initiative at the top level, including the setting of relevant policies. Based on the analysis of a total of 26 articles, it was found that the campus sustainability framework application proposed by Alshuwaikhat and Abubakar can still be improved practically by the university. The framework’s components, particularly public participation and social responsibility are still not fully emphasized. The university should diversify activities, involving the community, alumni, and NGOs in raising awareness of the environment. Furthermore, the welfare and practicality of facilities at university should be prioritized, especially for the handicapped. Overall, the concept of campus sustainability not only sustains the environment but also achieves equity and equality in all aspects.

6 Availability of Data And Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7 References Agdas, D., Srinivasan, R.S., Frost, K., Masters, F.J. (2015). Energy use assessment of educational buildings: toward a campus-wide sustainable energy policy. Sustain Cities Soc, 17, 15-21. Alawin, A.A., Rahmeh, T.A., Jaber, J.O., Loubani, S., Dalu, S.A., Awad, W., Dalabih, A. (2016). Renewable energy education in engineering schools in Jordan: existing courses and level of awareness of senior students. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 65, 308-318. Alshuwaikhat, H.M. & Abubakar, I. (2008). An integrated approach to achieving campus sustainability: assessment of the current campus environmental management practices, Journal of Cleaner Production, 16(16), 1777-1785. Aris, M.S., Bhaskoro, P.T. (2014). Energy-saving technique for cooling dominated academic building: technoeconomic analysis of its application. Appl Energy, 132, 192-199 Berchin, I.I, Sima, M., de Lima, M.A., Biesel, S., dos Santos, L.P., Ferreira, R.V., de Andrade, J.B.S.O, Ceci, F. (2018). The importance of international conferences on sustainable development as higher education institutions’ strategies to promote sustainability: a case study in Brazil. J Clean Prod, 171, 756-772. Castro, R. & Jabbour, C.J.C. (2013). Evaluating sustainability of an Indian university. Journal of Cleaner Production, 61, 54-58. Cothran, T. (2011). Google Scholar acceptance and use among graduate students: A quantitative study. Library & Information Science Research, 33(4), 293-301. Desha, C.J., Hargroves, K.C. (2010). Surveying the state of higher education in energy efficiency, in Australian engineering curriculum. J Clean Prod, 18(7), 652-658. Dewey, A. & Drahota, A. (2016) Introduction to systematic reviews: online learning module Cochrane Training. https://training.cochrane.org/interactivelearning/module-1-introduction-conducting-systematic-reviews Kolokotsa, D., Gobakis, K., Papantoniou, S., Georgatou, C., Kampelis, N., Kalaitzakis, K., Vasilakopoulou, K., Santamouris, M. (2016). Development of a web-based energy management system for University Campuses: the CAMP-IT platform. Energy Build, 123, 119-135. Leal Filho, W. (2011). About the role of universities and their contribution to sustainable development. High Educ Policy, 24(4):427-438.

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Lozano, R., Ceulemans, K., Alonso-Almeida, M., Huisingh, D., Lozano, F.J., Waas, T., Lambrechts, W., Lukman, R., Hugé, J. (2015). A review of commitment and implementation of sustainable development in higher education: results from a worldwide survey. J Clean Prod, 108, 1-18. O’Keeffe, P. (2016) The role of Ethiopia’s public universities in achieving the United Nations sustainable development goals. Int Rev Educ, 62(6):791-813. Saadatian, O., Sopian, K.B, Salleh, E. (2013). Adaptation of sustainability community indicators for Malaysian campuses as a small city. Sustainable Cities and Society, 6, 40-60.

Abdullah Alomar is a student at Department of Educational Studies, University Sains Malaysia. He got his Bachelor of Education in Islamic Studies and Arabic Language from King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia. His Master of Education in Leadership and Learning from University of Hull, UK. His research is The Influence of Authentic Leadership on Campus Sustainability in The Higher Education of Saudi Arabia with Affective Commitment as Mediator and Workplace Spirituality as Moderator. Dr. Al Amin Mydin is a Senior Lecturer at School of Educational Studies, Universiti Sains Malaysia. He got a Ph.D. in Leadership and Educational Management. He was a school administrator before joining as an academic Universiti Sains Malaysia as Senior Lecturer in the field Human Resource Management in Education and School Management. His research is in the area of Education and Community Engagement.

Samira Alaklabi is a student at Department of Educational Studies, University Sains Malaysia. She got her Bachelor of Education in Early childhood Education from King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia. Her Master of Education in Early childhood Studies from University Of Hull, UK. Her research is The Influence of Instructional Leadership on Teachers Efficacy: Workplace Spirituality as Mediator and Professional Learning Community as Moderator in Saudi Arabian Preschool.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

The Relationship between Financial Anxiety and Sugar Dating among Students at Pedagogical Universities in Vietnam Van-Trung Tran1, Vinh-Long Tran-Chi2,3*, Kim-Sang Nguyen-Thi4, Xuan Thanh Kieu Nguyen4 Office of Postgraduate Academic Affair, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, VIETNAM. Faculty of Education, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, VIETNAM. 3 Faculty of Psychology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, VIETNAM. 4 Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, HUTECH University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, VIETNAM. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +84-935 176 278, Email: tranlong@tdmu.edu.vn). 1 2

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10M Volume 12 Issue 10

Sugar dating is a social phenomenon in which most sugar babies seek out sugar relationships to relieve financial stress. This study was Received 29 July 2021 Received in revised form 14 conducted to examine the relationship between financial anxiety and October 2021 acceptance of sugar dating among students at pedagogical universities. The Accepted 22 October 2020 study aims to improve understanding of the sugar dating phenomenon in the Available online 04 August educational environment in Vietnam. Our study used the Acceptance of 2021 Sugar Relationships in Young Women and Men Scale (ASR-YWMS) and the Keywords: Financial Anxiety Scale (FAS) to test correlation on students. An online Financial anxiety; survey was used, with participation by 402 university students in Vietnam. Pedagogical student; The findings of our study show that acceptance of sugar dating among Sugar relationship; Partstudents is influenced by whether or not they have part-time jobs. Students time job; Sugar dating; Financial Anxiety Scale without a part-time job have a greater acceptance of sugar dating than students with a part-time job. The results confirm that student acceptance of (FAS); College cost; sugar dating is positively connected with financial anxiety. Financial pressure; College student.

Cite This Article: Tran, V.T., Tran-Chi, V.-L., Nguyen-Thi, K.-S., Nguyen, T.K.X. (2021). The Relationship between Financial Anxiety and Sugar Dating among Students at Pedagogical Universities in Vietnam. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10M, 1-8. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.202

1 Introduction Numerous studies in the field of psychology demonstrate the relationship between financial anxiety and acceptance of sugar dating across the world (Song & Morash, 2015; DeSoto, 2018; Lam, 2020). With increased financial insecurity as a result of rising college costs, women of college-age

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are turning to non-traditional ways to obtain financial aid (DeSoto, 2018). Another study indicates that the financial stress faced by many university students is the main reason they participate in sugar dating (Lam, 2020). However, there has been no research related to sugar dating in Vietnam – specifically, the relationship between financial anxiety and sugar dating. This study contributes to research by providing a societal understanding of the sugar dating phenomenon in a Vietnamese social context. The proportion of college students who are tolerant of sugar dating from a financial and social standpoint is very high (Reed, 2015). Financial pressures may result in sexual interchange for the financial benefit of female students (Song & Morash, 2016). Financial issues have the greatest impact on a student’s desire to pursue higher education (Wilkins et al., 2013), and research on college students and financial distress shows that college students worry continuously about financial problems (Archuleta et al., 2013). According to another study, female students show a higher level of financial anxiety than male students, even though there is no significant gender difference in receiving support from family and society (Tran et al., 2018). The number of firstgeneration and non-first-generation college students who are financially stressed varies substantially (House et al., 2020). On teacher training programs, the main reason that many students take on part-time jobs is to finance their education, paying tuition fees, and buying study materials, while gaining skills for the future (Muluk, 2017).

2 Literature Review Sugar dating is a mutually beneficial relationship between two partners, where one, the sugar baby, is paid by the other, the sugar momma or daddy, for their time (Lenze, 2020). It is a type of relationship in which two people trade money for affection, companionship, and even physical contact (Beeson-Lynch, 2017). Sugar babies can be enticed into sugar relationships to sustain their lifestyle through financial support from a sugar daddy (DeSoto, 2018). Sugar dating is a date-like encounter in which a middle-aged man and a school-aged girl spend time together and have sex, and the man then offers money or presents to the girl; this practice is common in countries such as China, Japan, and Korea (Song & Morash, 2015). Where high fees are charged by colleges in larger cities, as well as in countries with high rates of unemployment, some female students choose such romantic arrangements to finance their higher education (Mixson, 2019). Sugar relationships are growing in popularity among college students, as a way of raising money (Lenze, 2020). The proportion of men with a positive attitude toward sugar relationships is higher than women (Birkás et al., 2020). The main difference between sugar dating and traditional dating is that sugar dating has a financial element, and the desire for money and affection must be evident from the start (Daly, 2017). In this study, we use the Acceptance of Sugar Relationships in Young Women and Men Scale (ASR-YWMS) by Birkás et al. (2020) and the Financial Anxiety Scale (FAS) to test the correlation among students at pedagogical universities. Finance has become an issue of great significance recently as universities in Vietnam have raised tuition fees; students must repay fees after graduation if they do not have a job that is related to their major (VNS, 2017; Huong 2020).

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3 Methods 3.1 Participants Convenience sampling was used to select the respondents for the study. Data for the analysis was collected between December 2020 and March 2021. Our sample was limited to students at pedagogical universities. The survey was completed by 540 students at four different pedagogical universities from Hue, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. All participants gave informed consent, and no student was rewarded for their participation. Surveys were returned by 474 eligible respondents, equating to a response rate of 87.8%, which is higher than the 30% response rate required by most researchers (Dillman, 2000). We employed survey data on the 402 students who have college tuition loans (61 males and 341 females), 44.5% of whom have a part-time job. Sample characteristics are shown in Table 1. Table 1: An overview of respondents Socio-demographic variable Gender Loans Part-time job

Category Male Female Yes No Yes No

n 61 341 402 0 179 223

% 15.2 84.8 100 0 44.5 55.5

3.2 Measure In this cross-sectional study, we measured acceptance of sugar dating using the Acceptance of Sugar Relationships in Young Women and Men Scale (ASR-YWMS), which was recently developed by Bri et al. (2020). This scale was translated into Vietnamese by two bilingual researchers familiar with the construct being assessed. The first language of the first researcher was Vietnamese; the first language of the second researcher was English. The protocols for forwarding and backward translation were carried out in compliance with the guidelines. In the Vietnamese version of the index, the exact order was retained. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to use this scale. Reliability estimates for the ASR-YWMS yielded a Cronbach’s alpha value of 0.95 (Bri et al., 2020). In this study, reliability was tested using Cronbach’s alpha, where the coefficient obtained for ASR-YWMS was 0.73. In addition, we also used the FAS to measure student financial anxiety (Shapiro & Burchell, 2012). The FAS contains 12 items and measures aspects of respondents’ financial attitudes and beliefs. The Cronbach's alpha was found to be 0.83. In this study, reliability for the whole sample was 0.86.

3.3 Analysis This study tested for a normal data distribution based on skewness and kurtosis. A two-way ANOVA compared the mean differences between gender (male, female) and students’ part-time jobs (yes, no) in sugar dating acceptance. A Pearson correlation analysis was computed to assess the relationship between acceptance of sugar relationships and the financial anxiety of pedagogical

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students. A simple linear regression was calculated to predict the acceptance of sugar dating based on financial anxiety.

3.4 Procedure Demographic information such as gender, loans, and part-time jobs were collected. Participants chose to take part in the online survey and had the option to leave at any time. They were asked to respond to, and complete each query based on their own experiences.

4 Results 4.1 Descriptive Analysis A two-way ANOVA was conducted to examine the effect of gender and working in a parttime job on acceptance of sugar dating. The two independent variables in this study are gender and part-time job (yes, no). The dependent variable is the mean score on the Acceptance ASR-YWMS, which is 1.94 (SD = 1.00). The mean and standard deviations for sugar dating acceptance measured as a function of the two factors are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Summary of the mean (M) and standard deviation (SD) of ASR-YWMS Gender Male (N) M SD Female (N) M SD Total (N) M SD

Yes 26 2.16 1.20 153 1.86 .91 179 1.90 .95

Part-time job No Combined 35 61 2.72 2.48 1.23 1.24 188 341 1.82 1.84 .92 .92 223 402 1.96 1.94 1.03 1.00

4.2 Inferential Analysis We performed a test for normal distribution, examining standardized skewness and kurtosis. This procedure indicated that the data were statistically normal. The null hypothesis test is that the error term variance is constant across the cells defined by the combination of factor levels. Since the significance value of the Levene test was F(3,398) = 0.08, p = 0.08, the premise underpinning the application of two-way ANOVA was found to be satisfied by the analysis. An alpha level of 0.05 was used for the initial analyses. The results of the two-way independent ANOVA show that there is a significant main effect of gender (F(1,398) = 19.08, p < 0.05, ηp2 = .046), with males (mean = 2.48; SD = 1.24) higher than

females (mean = 1.84; SD = .921), and a significant effect of a part-time job on sugar dating acceptance (F(1,398) = 3.73, p = 0.05). Participants with a part-time job had significantly lower acceptance of sugar dating (mean = 1.90, SD = .96) than participants without a part-time job (mean = 1.96, SD = 1.03). Moreover, the results indicate that significant interaction effects exist between the two variables (F(1,398) = 4.83, p < 0.05, ηp2 = .012) (see Table 3). The actual result of the two-

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way ANOVA – namely, whether either of the two independent variables or their interaction are statistically significant – is shown in the combined univariate ANOVA Table 3. Table 3: Combined univariate ANOVA Dependent Variable ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS ASR-YWMS

Source Corrected Model Intercept Gender Job Gender * Job Error Total Corrected Total

Type III Sum of Squares

Mean Square 8.687 933.466 18.047 3.528 4.576 .946

26.061a 3 933.466 1 18.047 1 3.528 1 4.576 1 376.440 398 1919.040 402 402.501 401 R2 = .065 (Adjusted R2 = .058).

Sig.

9.185 986.930 19.080 3.730 4.838

.001 .001 .001 .054 .028

Partial η2 .065 .713 .046 .009 .012

In Table 4, correlations were computed using two scales, the ASR-YWMS, and the FAS, on data for 402 students with college tuition loans. Table 4: ANOVA Correlation between the ASR-YWMS and FAS ASR-YWMS FAS ASR-YWMS 0.282** ** FAS 0.282 ** . Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (two-tailed)

Results of the Pearson correlation indicate that there is a strong, significantly positive association between acceptance of sugar dating and financial anxiety (r(402) = 0.282, p < 0.001), two-tailed. This result suggests that increased financial anxiety is correlated with increased acceptance of sugar relationships. Table 5: Regression model Model 1

R 0.282a

R2 0.079

Adjusted R2 0.077

F 34.512

Sig. 0.001b

A simple linear regression was carried out to test whether financial anxiety significantly predicts acceptance of sugar dating. A significant regression was found (F(1,400) = 34.512, p < 0.001), with an R2 of 0.079, as shown in Table 5. Table 6: Regression coefficients Model 1

(Constant) FAS

Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 1.221 0.132 0.244 0.041

Standardized Coefficients Beta 0.282

Sig.

9.270 5.875

0.001 0.001

From Table 6, these data predict that for each percentage point increase in financial anxiety, college students’ acceptance of sugar dating increases by 0.244, b = 0.244, p < 0.001. This finding confirms the hypothesis that financial anxiety is positively associated with sugar dating acceptance.

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5 Discussion This study provides important findings that improve understanding of the sugar dating phenomenon in Vietnamese society among students at pedagogical universities. From the results, it is clear that sugar dating is accepted in exchange for monetary gifts. There was a significant correlation between financial anxiety and acceptance by college students of sugar dating. Overall, sugar dating is generally embraced by students as a way of relieving financial pressure. Results of the two-way ANOVA show that acceptance of sugar dating differs depending on student gender and whether or not they have a part-time job when gender and part-time job are compared simultaneously on the ASR-YWMS scale. The results show that males are more accepting of sugar dating than females; this is consistent with the study results by Bri et al. (2020), where men were found to have a more positive attitude toward sugar relations than women. In addition, whether or not college students work part-time is connected with their acceptance of sugar dating; in this study, 223 participants did not have a part-time job (55.5%). The results suggest that college students without a part-time job are more likely to accept a sugar relationship. Our results align with previous studies on the sugar dating phenomenon, where sugar dating was a de facto part-time job for many college students (Kristiansen, 2019). This finding implies that sugar dating has long been a reality among students without a part-time job. It is important to note that universities should look for ways of helping students to find part-time jobs related to their majors. The study also found a significant correlation between sugar dating acceptance and financial anxiety, supporting the notion that students’ financial situations influence their views of the sugar relationship. This result is consistent with Lenze (2020), who discovered that sugar dating is likely a way to raise money. There are several limitations to this study. First, we used simple random sampling methods, and the sample size was not large. Second, our cross-sectional study does not reflect the long-term influence of financial concern on sugar dating acceptance. Third, the study was limited to pedagogical students and did not include students from other disciplines. Other research, we hope, will address these issues in the future.

6 Conclusion This paper argues that students who experience financial stress will positively correlate with acceptance of a sugar relationship. There are differences between gender and working in part-time jobs in acceptance of sugar dating. This is the first study of the sugar dating phenomenon in Vietnam, and especially of participants who are students at pedagogical universities. Despite its limitations, this study is valuable in informing the debate on the risks and benefits of exposure to sugar dating. We believe that building on the relationship between financial anxiety and sugar dating acceptance, future research should look at other features of sugar dating, including psychological issues and negative aspects of sugar dating.

7 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

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8 Acknowledgement The authors acknowledge the students’ pedagogical universities from Hue, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, who supported us in gathering the field data for this research.

9 References Archuleta, K. L., Dale, A., & Spann, S. M. (2013). College students and financial distress: exploring debt, financial satisfaction, and financial anxiety. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 24(2), 50-62. Beeson-Lynch, C.E. (2017). 'When daddies and babies fight back: The processes of stigmatization and destigmatization in online news coverage of Sugar Dating. Master’s thesis, Vanderbilt University. https://etd.library.vanderbilt.edu/etd-07272017-145736 Birkás, B., Meskó, N., Zsidó, A.N., Ipolyi, D., & Láng, A. (2020). Providing sexual companionship for resources Development, validation, and personality correlates of the acceptance. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 11-15. Daly, S.E. (2017). Sugar Babies and Sugar Daddies: An Exploration of Sugar Dating on Canadian Campuses Master’s thesis, Carleton University, Carleton University. Research Virtual Environment. https://curve.carleton.ca/5186cf8e-fca9-4e98-8bc5-36239cf1cdf3 Dillman DA 2000. Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Design Method. New York: John Wiley and Sons. DeSoto, M. (2018). A content analysis of sugar dating websites. Master’s thesis, California State University, Sacramento. https://csus-dspace.calstate.edu/handle/10211.3/202531 D'Agostino, R.B., Belanger, A., & D'Agostino Jr, R.B. (1990). A suggestion for using powerful and informative tests of normality. The American Statistician, 44(4), 316-321. House, L.A., Neal, C., & Kolb, J. (2020). Supporting the mental health needs of first-generation college students. Journal of College Student Psychotherapy, 34(2), 157-167. Kristiansen, I. M. (2019). 'A practical way to have a sex life' Between the Rationality of Sex Work and the Authenticity of Romance: A critical discourse analysis of the affective practice of sugar dating in Norway. Master’s thesis, University of Oslo. https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/73829/1/CDA-ofSugar-Dating.pdf Lam, R. (2020). Don't Sugarcoat It An Analysis of Sugar Dating Culture on Reddit. In Ted Palys (Eds.), A Closer Look in Unusual Times: Criminological Perspectives from Crim 862 (pp. 97-108). Simon Fraser University. Lenze, T.A. (2020). Student Sugar Dating: Sugar Babies' Perceptions of Their Decisions to Begin, Continue, or Desist. Master’s thesis, Bowling Green State University. Publication No. 28377469, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global. Huong, L. (2020). Từ hôm nay (1/7), sinh viên sư phạm không được miễn học phí nữa! (From today (1/7), pedagogical students are no longer exempt from tuition fees!). Tạp chí điện tử Giáo dục Việt Nam. https://giaoduc.net.vn/giao-duc-24h/tu-hom-nay-1-7-sinh-vien-su-pham-khong-duoc-mien-hoc-phi-nuapost210462.gd Malhotra, K., & Birks, F. (2007). Marketing research: An applied approach Harlow: England: Pearson Education Limited. Mixon, F.G. (2019). Sugar daddy u: human capital investment and the university-based supply of 'romantic arrangements'. Applied Economics, 51(9), 956–971. Muluk, S. (2017). Part-time job and students' academic achievement. Jurnal Ilmiah Peuradeun, 5(3), 361-372. Reed, L.R. (2015). Sugar babies, sugar daddies, and the perceptions of sugar dating. Doctoral dissertation, The Chicago School of Professional Psychology. Publication No. 3712867, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global.

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Shapiro, G. K., & Burchell, B. J. (2012). Measuring financial anxiety. Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 5(2), 92-103. Song, J., & Morash, M. (2016). Materialistic desires or childhood adversities as explanations for girls' trading sex for benefits. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 60(1), 62-81. Tran, A.G., Lam, C.K., & Legg, E. (2018). Financial stress, social supports, gender, and anxiety during college: A stress-buffering perspective. The Counseling Psychologist, 46(7), 846-869. VNS.

(2020). Academics divided on tuition-free pedagogy education. Viet Nam News. https://vietnamnews.vn/society/419584/academics-divided-on-tuition-free-pedagogy-education.html

Wilkins, S., Shams, F., & Huisman, J. (2013). The decision-making and changing behavioural dynamics of potential higher education students: the impacts of increasing tuition fees in England. Educational Studies, 39(2), 125-141. Van-Trung Pham is a Lecturer at the Faculty of Education, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam. He also is Director of the Office of Postgraduate Academic Affair, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam. His research interest is in Educational Administration.

Vinh-Long Tran-Chi is a Lecturer at the Faculty of Psychology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He also is a visiting researcher at the Faculty of Education, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam. He got a MA degree in Psychology from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Education. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He is a PhD student in the Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand. His research interest is in Clinical Psychology. Kim-Sang Nguyen-Thi is a student at the Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, HUTECH University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Her research interest is in Counselling Psychology.

Xuan Thanh Kieu Nguyen is a student at the Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, HUTECH University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Her research interest is in Clinical Psychology.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Psychological Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on International Medical Students: A Cross-sectional Study in China Mohammed ALGerafi1*, Wenlan Zhang1, Tram Huynh To2 1

School of Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, CHINA. Faculty of Odontostomatology, Hong Bang International University, Ho Chi Minh, VIETNAM. *Corresponding Author (Email: malgerafi@gmail.com). 2

Paper ID: 12A10N

Abstract

Volume 12 Issue 10

Lockdown to control the spread of the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in various psychological effects on humans. Medical students may have Received 30 April 2021 Received in revised form 19 been particularly affected by the lockdown due to many disturbances in their July 2021 daily lives and education. The primary objective of this study was to assess Accepted 24 July 2021 the academic burnout status and its relationship with other factors among Available online 05 August international medical students in China during the COVID-19 pandemic 2021 lockdown. This was an online-based cross-sectional study using a selfKeywords: administrated questionnaire conducted from February-August 2020 in China COVID-19 lockdown; when the lockdown took place and all Chinese medical schools shifted International students; toward electronic learning. A total of 407 eligible respondents were Lockdown burnout; analyzed. Almost all students were clustered above the descriptive cut-off for Medical education; both exhaustion (405/407) and disengagement (368/407) dimensions. The Psychology; Feeling stress; Feeling isolation; overall burnout was significantly associated with the academic attitude, feeling of isolation, and stress. This study suggests that international Oldenburg Burnout Inventory (OLBI). medical students may suffer from psychological distress and negative academic attitude due to higher feelings of isolation and greater levels of stress during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. It is recommended that actions are needed to be taken to reduce the psychological impact of the lockdown, thereby supporting the students’ well-being and education. Disciplinary: Medical Education, Psychology. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: AlGerafi, M., Zhang, W., Huynh To, T. (2021). Psychological Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on International Medical Students: A Cross-sectional Study in China. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10N, 1-10. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.203

1 Introduction It is widely anticipated that the COVID-19 pandemic is going to have a long-lasting effect on the psychology of all humans, worldwide. However, as the pandemic is still ongoing, it is

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exceedingly difficult to predict and assess the range and the severity of this psychological burden. Although the western world was taken by surprise, considering pandemics a problem of the past or of underdeveloped countries, Asia had its share of pandemics, before SARS-COV2 appeared. Multidrug-resistant malaria in 2013 (Amato et al., 2018), yellow fever in 2016 (Wilder-Smith et al., 2019), the Zika outbreak in 2018 (Yadav et al., 2019) have made Asian countries painfully aware of how suddenly they appear and how easily they spread. As one of the pioneers in response to the COVID-19 crisis, China has suspended in-person classes and switched to electronic learning several times since mid-February 2020. Obviously, medical schools have been no exception. Considering the temporary closure of medical schools during the lockdown, medical students may have been particularly affected. They must cope with the sudden changes in curriculum and the rapid shift toward online education. Senior students may be further impacted because of the cancellation of clinical exposure (Nishimura et al., 2021). Moreover, the social distancing among students may have also affected their psychological state since the academic years are considered to be the most impactful in a person’s life (Brouwer & Jansen, 2019). Therefore, medical students may feel less supported both academically and socially (Aftab et al., 2021). China has emerged as an educational hub for international students for years. During the crisis, international students may feel worse than local attendees do, as the change of country generally leads to a totally different cultural background that the person has experienced thus far. Under the pandemic lockdown, international students may perceive themselves as far away from their families, friends, academic environment, and other social relationships, possibly resulting in psychological distress. Indeed, social support is reported to enhance academic goals and reduce emotional exhaustion among undergraduate students in China (Li et al., 2018). Summing up all these issues, it is important to maintain the psychological well-being of international medical students with effective approaches to support their wellness and education. Herein, our study presents the psychological impact of the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic on international students pursuing their education in medical schools in China and attempts to predict whether the social environment can affect them personally and academically. The present report is based on a prospective cross-sectional study conducted with an online questionnaire, during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in China (spring semester February – August 2020), when all medical schools introduced e-learning as the only way of continuing their courses. Chinese Medical Schools have a 5-year curriculum with an additional year of clinical internship. The clinical specialization covers a 2-3 years' master’s degree. International students, at all Medical Schools, in China, including MBBS (Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery), Dentistry, and Pharmacology, were the target of our study. Around 40,000 expat students are estimated to be currently studying in the Chinese Medical Schools, countrywide. We calculated that a minimum of 381 correctly completed questionnaires was needed for a statistically valid representation of our target group (Cardinale et al., 2011).

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Our research team developed the questionnaire through consultation with a medical education expert and tried out it through a pilot study on 30 students. The amended version was posted, for four weeks, on the WeChat platform that is widely used by medical students in China. Concurrently, it was published in the university groups of each university by local medical students and the snowball sampling method was used to reach the largest number of respondents and increase participation. The survey was terminated when the predesignated number was reached. The questionnaire consisted of three main domains. The first comprised the demographics of the participants, namely, age, gender, country of origin, country of residence, living and social conditions. In particular, the cohabitation conditions and the social bubble of each student were determined. Moreover, a short self-assessment of their personality (introvert/extrovert) was also included. The pillar provides the framework within which the students are expected to perform and adapt. The second pillar measured the burnout factor using the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory (OLBI), a useful tool that has been used previously for academic burnout in medical students and residents (Tipa, R.O et al 2019). Disengagement items are 1, 3(R), 6(R), 7, 9(R), 11(R), 13, 15. Exhaustion items are 2(R), 4(R), 5, 8(R), 10, 12(R), 14, 16. (R) means reversed item when the scores should be such that higher scores indicate more burnout. Finally, the third domain comprised assessment of the student's attitude towards their studies, their teachers, and their future was also assessed. The sum of the corresponding replies was categorized as an educational attitude and stress scores, respectively. The pilar is correlated with the psychological impact on educational progress. The overall stress score is the sum of questions scores pertaining to their feeling of isolation and uncertainty towards the perceived situation. The questions for each section are presented in Supplementary tables S1-S5. Domains 2, and 3 were structured positively and assessed in a fivepoint Likert scale (Strongly Disagree, Disagree, Neutral, Agree, Strongly Agree). Therefore, a total score for each domain was calculated as the sum of the individual statement. Data analysis was performed using Jamovi 1.27 statistical software. Initial descriptive analysis revealed that data do not follow a normal distribution pattern, therefore appropriate tests for parametric and non-parametric variables were selected. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was calculated in all entities.

2 Result Four hundred twelve students completed the questionnaire, and five were excluded because they fell outside the pre-set parameters (e.g., they were taking only language classes, or were studying in non-medical disciplines). Therefore, the following data represent 407 students, aged 18-43 (mean 26.5±5.01); males were 248 (63.39%), females 159 (36.61%). These represent approximately 10% (407/40,000) of the international medical students in China (Li & Sun, 2019), thus a representative sample of the target population (confidence level 5%). The response rate was 100%, as there was a rigorous follow-up.

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Participants originated from all continents, but understandably most come from Asia (70.27%) and then Africa (24.82%) (Table 1). This trend coincides with the distribution of students (Asian students 59.95% and African students 16.57%) from the official data (Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, 2019). The older the students, thus being in the clinical years, the more likely it was to reside in China during the pandemic (p< .001). The social bubble consisted of more than 4 persons (mean 4.68) with the older students having fewer people around them, but not statistically different from juniors (p=0.084). Out of the undergraduate students (158, 38.82%), most of them (57.59%) were in the preclinical years (1-3 years), while the rest were in the latter years (37.34%). Almost half of the students (55.61%) were residing in China during the pandemic, while the rest (44.39%) were back in their home countries. Most of the students (88.45%) lived with someone else, either their family (51.35%) or at a university dormitory (28.75%), or shared a house (8.35%), while only a few lived alone (11.55%) (Table 1). Table 1. Demographic data of participants No % Gender 407 Male 248 63.39 Female 159 36.61 Continent of Origin 407 Asia 286 70.27 Africa 101 24.82 Europe 10 2.46 America 7 1.72 Oceania 3 0.74 Dwelling arrangements* 407 Alone 47 11.55 Family 209 51.35 Shared housing 34 8.35 University Dormitory 117 28.75 Place of Residence* 407 China 226 55.61 Outside of China 181 44.39 Number of people in a social 4.48 (2.98) bubble (Mean, SD) Junior 4.81 p=0.084 Senior 4.08 * Place of residence during the lockdown period

The continent of origin (Africa, America, Asia, Europe, or Oceania) does not seem to affect any of the parameters measured. Similarly, the personality traits (introvert/extrovert) do not seem to have any impact on the scales used (data not shown). Table 2. alpha Cronbach coefficient for internal consistency Component Attitude score Overall stress OLBI-exhaustion OLBI-disengagement OLBI- total

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No of questions 10 11 8 8 16

Alpha Cronbach coefficient 0.700 0.625 0.732 0.791 0.892

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Firstly, the alpha Cronbach coefficient was calculated for all subdomains (Table 2). The stress score is rather low (a=0.625), most likely due to the heterogenicity of the stressing factors assessed. All conclusions will take this into account. The effect of binary parameters was assessed by t-test and the results are presented in Table 3. In summary, gender correlates with age (male students tend to be older, p=0.002) most likely because they pursued higher degrees; older students (seniors) also tend to have a smaller social circle (p=0.056) while not statistically significant. Table 3. t-test p-value for binary parameters gender residence Senior/junior Age 0.002* <0.001* 0.011* Social Bubble 0.470 0.968 0.056 Year in medical school 0.623 0.003* <0.001 Professors did their best 0.764 0.009* 0.959 Professors rose to challenge 0.147 0.029* 0.641 Attitude score 0.569 <0.001* 0.384 Overall stress score 0.625 0.866 0.534 OLBI-Exh 0.350 0.370 0.530 OLBI-dis 0.100 0.015* 0.243 OLBI-total 0.120 0.050* 0.280 I/E score 0.932 0.689 0.268 *Levene test is significant (p<.05), suggesting a violation of the assumption of equal variances

Residence (in or outside China) seemed to affect greatly most parameters of our study. Students outside China judged more harshly their professors (p=0.009 and p=0.029), had a more negative attitude towards their studies (p<0.001), and exhibited a higher OLBI dissociation (p=0.015) and overall score (p=0.050.) (Table 3). Table 4. one way ANOVA p-value for non-binary parameters Age Social Bubble Year in medical school Professors did their best Professors rose to challenge Attitude score Overall stress score OLBI-Exh OLBI-dis OLBI-total I/E score

dwelling 0.208 0.090 0.064 0.005* 0.014* <.001* 0.026* 0.332 0.256 0.179 0.388

degree <.001* 0.050 <.001* 0.791 0.188 <.001* 0.519 0.199 0.841 0.457 0.089

The analysis of the non-binary nonparametric factors, with one-way ANOVA, is shown in Table 4. Dwelling conditions (alone, shared household, university dorm, family) show an impact on factors such as attitude towards the professors (p=0.005 and p=0.014), the general academic attitude (p<0.001), and overall stress (p=0.026). More specifically, people living within their family or at a university dormitory were more favorable towards their teacher than those living alone. Reversibly those living alone or within university dormitories have a higher academic affinity. The degree level (BSc, PhD, Master) affects obviously the age and the year in medical school, as well as the academic attitude (p<0.001). The higher the degree level the more satisfied the students. The less satisfied were those in Bachelor, mostly because some of the students got no

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experience of live classroom teaching. These students may also have had less opportunity to expand their social bubble, as they had the least people identified as a social bubble.

3 Discussion This study presents a comprehensive overview of the mental and psychological state of international students, in medical schools of China, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Burnout was measured in connection to the living situation, the social bubble, the social dissociation, the feeling of stress. Academic performance was also assessed regarding the above-mentioned parameters. In our study, the feelings of exhaustion and dissociation do not seem to associate significantly with the stress levels and the feeling of isolation. These associations have been reported in the past for the academic community, and especially the medical school students, even before the pandemic. The phenomenon has been well documented across the globe from first- to third-world countries (Ezenwaji et al., 2019; Rudinskaitė et al., 2020). Burnout is the psychological manifestation of chronic stress and is usually linked to substance and alcohol abuse, even suicidal ideation, in extreme cases (Talih et al., 2018). The most important parameter that appears to relate to both the academic attitude and the attitude towards the instructors, seems to be the residence of the students. The students living overseas seem to be more dissociated from studies and are more critical towards their teachers. The residence location can account for discontent as living away from the university can give rise to technical issues of distant learning (e.g., internet connection, time difference, etc.), which have been reported extensively (Farooq et al., 2020). Since younger students tended to be located abroad, maybe they did not have the time either to adjust to academic life or to connect to their university before the pandemic. This highlights the importance of university life that expands beyond the curriculum and reaches the social life of students. From this study, it was clear that the student's state of mind affected greatly how they perceived and impacting their own performance and the performance of the professors. Their scholarly attitude strongly correlated with the stress and the isolation feeling and so did their attitude towards their professors’ efforts. Factors that most affected that attitude were their living conditions but not the gender, age nor personality intro/extroversion. Many college recruiters have been researching the burn-out predictors for future college students. Research has shown that burnout levels significantly increase with the rise of both academic stress and psychological distress. Neuroticism has an indirect impact on burnout, as they both increase in a parallel manner. Emotional intelligence, on the other hand, has a significant direct effect on lowering burnout, but its positive effect is reduced when psychological distress and neuroticism are present (Yusoff et al., 2021). It is therefore apparent that multiple factors can simultaneously affect the psychological profile of students and that this profile can be modified by external factors. As it is evident, even without external circumstances the medical academic life is not easy. The desire to succeed coupled with difficulties in achieving success can lead to an imbalance of the “effort-reward equilibrium that leads to burnout (Larki et al., 2018). However, in

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our study, this type of characteristic was not investigated extensively. We only assessed the introversion score, and this does not seem to be affecting the remaining parameters. Maybe the living conditions during a pandemic are stressful enough for everybody to mask the impact of personality characteristics. Medical studies can be challenging, but for some students, they can truly become a source of anxiety. Previous studies suggest that stress can impact negatively on students’ mental health and that burnout is frequently reported among medical school students (Collin et al., 2020). The studies suggest greater stress levels than depression, among medical students, with the women showing greater percentages of burnout (Castaldelli-Maia et al., 2019). However, in our study, gender did not affect any of the parameters studied. The same goes with the age/stage of studies, as no apparent difference was observed in respect to the psychological parameters, though previous reports mention cycles of elation and despair depending on the year of studies, peaking towards graduation (Moutinho et al., 2017). This discrepancy of the demographics is due to the heightened negative feelings everybody has been feeling during the COVID-19 lockdowns, that made smaller group difference less apparent. Indeed, almost all students were clustered in the high burnout scales for both exhaustion and disengagement. These high percentages are not uncommon among medical students in general, even before the pandemic (Almeida et al., 2019). When studying abroad, more challenges need to be overcome and issues of adaptability and adjustment need to be addressed. International students live away from their home countries and therefore have created coping mechanisms and systems to compensate for this loss and missing out. This mechanism includes developing strong friendly bonds or brings family over to accompany them through their studies. Interestingly, a report on burnout predictors for international students in the Eastern Caribbean medical schools, pre-COVID-19, showed that there was no significant predictive link between being a medical student or having family support and the overall burnout, whereas there was a strong correlation between previous diagnosis and presence of a mental disorder and burnout (Lewis, 2020). Similarly, in our study, the dwelling conditions, and their residence in or out of China did not impact the OLBI scores. Moreover, half of the students were living with their family during the lockdown, and most of them with someone they were familiar with (either relative or friend). Their self-reported social bubble was considerable, creating a substantial social safety net around them. A study of international Chinese students in South Korea that linked the lower levels of psychosocial well-being directly as well as indirectly via acculturation and academic burnout (Jin et al., 2021). Another study reported higher stress levels in international medical students due to COVID-19 in comparison to local medical students (O’Byrne et al., 2021). Moving forward, acknowledging the difficulties of international students is imperative for universities to support them. A recent study has shown that students have increased stress levels at the end of the semester, which coincides with the semester assessment processes. In that study,

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junior medical students (<3y) were compared when having frequent formative assessments during the year vs end-of-the-year summative examinations. The stress levels were higher in the former group than the latter, suggesting that changes in the curriculum structure can have a beneficial effect on students’ well-being (Merrick et al., 2021). On the other hand, a large meta-analysis of a large group of students in China of different learning levels showed that learning burnout interventions can be effective and should be implemented more rigorously and consistently (Tang et al., 2021).

4 Conclusion The pandemic has created more challenges and strain on the psychology of international students, which affects their well-being and academic progress. More specifically the students, who during the pandemic were studying outside China, were affected the most. Going forward it is evident that remote studying is going to continue as a valid, parallel system of university attendance, therefore more effort must be applied worldwide to develop compatible international systems that permit studies across the globe. China being the 3rd country in international students’ recruitment needs to lead the way to such improvements and developments. This is going to be vital in the future of international studying, especially in the medical field which is known to be tough and demanding.

5 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6 References Almeida, T., Kadhum, M., Farrell, S. M., Ventriglio, A., & Molodynski, A. (2019). A descriptive study of mental health and wellbeing among medical students in Portugal. International Review of Psychiatry, 31(7-8), 574-578. DOI: 10.1080/09540261.2019.1675283 Amato, R., Pearson, R. D., Almagro-Garcia, J., Amaratunga, C., Lim, P., Suon, S., Sreng, S., Drury, E., Stalker, J., Miotto, O., Fairhurst, R. M., & Kwiatkowski, D. P. (2018). Origins of the current outbreak of multidrug-resistant malaria in southeast Asia: A retrospective genetic study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 18(3), 337-345. DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30068-9 Brouwer, J., & Jansen, E. (2019). Beyond grades: Developing knowledge sharing in learning communities as a graduate attribute. Higher Education Research & Development, 38(2), 219-234. DOI: 10.1080/07294360.2018.1522619 Cardinale, M., Newton, R., & Nosaka, K. (2011). Strength and Conditioning. Wiley-Blackwell. Castaldelli-Maia, J. M., Lewis, T., Santos, N. M. dos, Picon, F., Kadhum, M., Farrell, S. M., Molodynski, A., & Ventriglio, A. (2019). Stressors, psychological distress, and mental health problems amongst Brazilian medical students. International Review of Psychiatry, 31(7-8), 603-607. DOI: 10.1080/09540261.2019.1669335 Collin, V., O’Selmo, E., & Whitehead, P. (2020). Stress, psychological distress, burnout and perfectionism in UK dental students. British Dental Journal, 229(9), 605-614. DOI: 10.1038/s41415-020-2281-4 Ezenwaji, I. O., Eseadi, C., Ugwoke, S. C., Vita-Agundu, U. C., Edikpa, E., Okeke, F. C., Nwafor, B. N., Ozioko, A. N., Ebinyasi, J. O., Nwabuko, L. O., Njoku, L. G., & Agu, M. A. (2019). A group-focused

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rational emotive behavior coaching for management of academic burnout among undergraduate students. Medicine, 98(30). DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000016352 Farooq, F., Rathore, F. A., & Mansoor, S. N. (2020). Challenges of Online Medical Education in Pakistan During COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan, 30(1), 6769. DOI: 10.29271/jcpsp.2020.Supp1.S67 Jin, L., Yang, E., & Zamudio, G. (2021). Self-determined motivation, acculturation, academic burnout, and psychosocial well-being of Chinese international students in South Korea. Counselling Psychology Quarterly. DOI: 10.1080/09515070.2021.1887084 Larki, M., Ghaffari, M., & Baezzat, F. (2018). The effort-reward imbalance theory and measurement of stress in academic context: Construction and validation of student version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire (ERIQ-S). Occupational Medicine Quarterly Journal, 10(2), 72-83. Lewis, D. (2020). Exploring Predictive Variables of Burnout in Students Attending Eastern Caribbean Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies. Medical Schools. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/9592 Li, J., Han, X., Wang, W., Sun, G., & Cheng, Z. (2018). How social support influences university students’ academic achievement and emotional exhaustion: The mediating role of self-esteem. Learning and Individual Differences, 61, 120-126. DOI: 10.1016/j.lindif.2017.11.016 Li, W., & Sun, H. (2019). Migration intentions of Asian and African medical students educated in China: A cross-sectional study. Human Resources for Health, 17(1), 88. DOI: 10.1186/s12960-019-0431-z Merrick, D., Mbaki, Y., Pratten, M. K., & Simpson, T. G. (2021). Exploring wellbeing in first year medical students amidst a curriculum change. BMC Medical Education, 21(1), 252. DOI: 10.1186/s12909-02102678-9 Moutinho, I. L. D., Maddalena, N. de C. P., Roland, R. K., Lucchetti, A. L. G., Tibiriçá, S. H. C., Ezequiel, O. da S., & Lucchetti, G. (2017). Depression, stress and anxiety in medical students: A cross-sectional comparison between students from different semesters. Revista Da Associação Médica Brasileira, 63, 21-28. DOI: 10.1590/1806-9282.63.01.21 O’Byrne, L., Gavin, B., Adamis, D., Lim, Y. X., & McNicholas, F. (2021). Levels of stress in medical students due to COVID-19. Journal of Medical Ethics, 47(6), 383-388. DOI: 10.1136/medethics-2020107155 Rudinskaitė, I., Mačiūtė, E., Gudžiūnaitė, G., & Gerulaitytė, G. (2020). Burnout Syndrome Amongst Medicine Students in Lithuania and Germany. Acta Medica Lituanica, 27(2), 53-60. DOI: 10.15388/Amed.2020.27.2.2 Shaw, R., Kim, Y., & Hua, J. (2020). Governance, technology and citizen behavior in pandemic: Lessons from COVID-19 in East Asia. Progress in Disaster Science, 6, 100090. DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100090 Talih, F., Daher, M., Daou, D., & Ajaltouni, J. (2018). Examining Burnout, Depression, and Attitudes Regarding Drug Use Among Lebanese Medical Students During the 4 Years of Medical School. Academic Psychiatry, 42, 288-296. Tang, L., Zhang, F., Yin, R., & Fan, Z. (2021). Effect of Interventions on Learning Burnout: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 645662. DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.645662 Wilder-Smith, A., Lee, V., & Gubler, D. J. (2019). Yellow fever: Is Asia prepared for an epidemic? The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 19(3), 241-242. DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30050-7

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Yadav, P. D., Malhotra, B., Sapkal, G., Nyayanit, D. A., Deshpande, G., Gupta, N., Padinjaremattathil, U. T., Sharma, H., Sahay, R. R., Sharma, P., & Mourya, D. T. (2019). Zika virus outbreak in Rajasthan, India in 2018 was caused by a virus endemic to Asia. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 69, 199-202. DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2019.01.026 Yusoff, M. S. B., Hadie, S. N. H., & Yasin, M. A. M. (2021). The roles of emotional intelligence, neuroticism, and academic stress on the relationship between psychological distress and burnout in medical students. BMC Medical Education, 21(1), 293. DOI: 10.1186/s12909-021-02733-5 Mohammed ALGerafi is a Ph.D. candidate at the College of Education, Shaanxi Normal University (SNNU), Xi’an China. His research interests include Educational Technology, Artificial Intelligence in Education, Electronic Education, Virtual Medical Teaching, and currently on the Impact of COVID-19 on Education.

Wenlan Zhang is Professor, Associate Dean in the School of Education and Director of the Institute for Digital Education at the Shaanxi Normal University (SNNU). Her major area is on Learning Psychology and Technology, ICT Uses in K‐12 Teaching and Learning and Blend Learning.

Tram Huynh To is a Dentist, a Lecturer, and a Researcher in Vietnam. She got her Master's Degree from the Faculty of Odonto-stomatology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. She works at Hong Bang International University. Her research interests include Dental Sciences, Pediatric Dentistry, and Public Health.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Management Aspects for the Integrated Agro-industrial Formations in Russia N.Kh. Kairova1, R.Ye. Shokumova1, L.Z. Khalishkhova1*, Z.S. Marzhokhov2 Department of Economics, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “KabardinoBalkarian State Agricultural University named after V.M. Kokov”, Nalchik, RUSSIAN FEDERATION. 2 Ministry of Economic Development of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Nalchik, RUSSIAN FEDERATION. *Corresponding Author (Email: L_a_u_r_a@inbox.ru). 1

Paper ID: 12A10O Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 05 May 2021 Received in revised form 24 July 2021 Accepted 02 August 2021 Available online 06 August 2021

Keywords: Integrated agroindustrial formation (IAF); IAF ecosystem; IAF control object; IAF modeling; IF automated system-cognitive analysis; IAF intelligent system; IAF concept; Artificial intelligence; IAF cognitive configurator.

Abstract

Management of an integrated agro-industrial formation (IAF) is a process involving a complex cross-sectoral nature, associated with a complex multi-level system with modification variability consisting of interconnected organizations, operating in a complex, competitive and dynamic environment. This work proposes a concept for managing the development of integrated agro-industrial formations based on the use of an integrated, multi-aspect approach to solving strategic problems. Modeling a control object is based on the synthesis of fundamental and technical analysis methods. At the same time, based on indicators determined in a temporal coordinate system, it is recommended to identify events in the history of the IAF, and then identify and substantiate correlations between these events. The revealed dependencies are used to build a management model for an IAF. In this study, conceptual, theoretical, and methodological provisions for managing the development of integrated agro-industrial formations operating in territorial socio-economic systems were clarified and developed. This work discusses characteristics of the management object as part of the ecosystem, the IAF as a control object. This work also considers data, information, knowledge, and their relationships for successful management of the IAF. Disciplinary: Agricultural Economics, Modern Management, Institutional Economics. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Kairova, N.Kh., Shokumova, R.Ye., Khalishkhova, L.Z., Marzhokhov, Z.S. (2021). Management Aspects for the Integrated Agro-industrial Formations in Russia. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10O, 1-13. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.204

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1 Introduction Systemic, purposeful modernization of agricultural production requires consolidated efforts of the state and society, which determines the need to form science-based approaches and new technologies

for

managing

the

socio-economic

development

agricultural

territories

(Golubyatnikova et al., 2019), including integrated agro-industrial formations of the mesoeconomic level. One of the effective ways to achieve sustainable development of the regional agroindustrial complex, to realize the innovative and investment potential is the formation and development of integrated agro-industrial formations (IAF). This provision is actualized by the need to ensure food and environmental and economic security in the face of external and internal constraints. The formation and development of diversified integrated structures in territorial socioeconomic systems will make it possible to realize the production and resource potential of agriculture, to carry out innovative modernization of the assets of economic entities of the agroindustrial complex, to solve a set of problems of a socio-economic nature. The research concept is based on the principles, approaches and methods in the theoretical and methodological coordinate system of the management mechanism of integrated agroindustrial formations. The scientific literature presents a variety of general schemes of management influences that have received practical approbation in modeling strategies for sustainable development of the regional agro-industrial complex. The main efforts of researchers in this area are aimed at solving the problems of regional economic development, creating corporate production structures focused on the effective use of the internal resource potential of agricultural territories. Russian and foreign scientists-economists have comprehensively worked out: - theoretical and methodological foundations of the organization and management of integrated agro-industrial formations, including the problems of their sustainable development; - methodological provisions of a systematic approach to the development of agro-industrial formations. Taking into account the theoretical and practical significance of the research, it should be noted that the issues of multivariate analysis, forecasting and development of strategies for managing the development of integrated agro-industrial formations in the transformation of goals and strategic objectives should be noted. Global trends in agroeconomics, an expanding range of innovative tasks determine the need for further study of the methodological aspects of IAF management. In this regard, it seems expedient to study the instrumental apparatus of the control system and algorithms for the formation of the IAF, methods of modeling, evaluation and analysis, which allow solving practical problems within the framework of the selected strategies of production activities based on the optimization of management decisions. The considered methodological aspects of the management of integrated agro-industrial formations are based on system analysis and an integrated approach to solving the issues of

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designing a strategic and operational management system based on the analysis of the formation and assessment of the added value of agricultural products. The problematic area of research consists in solving the problem of theoretical and methodological support for managing the development of agro-industrial integrated formations, including: - in substantiating the conceptual provisions of the IAF management, formulating goals, objectives, principles of their development, which allows us to update the subject-object base of interaction between the subjects of the integrated structure to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of agricultural territories; - in determining strategic priorities and recommendations for the development of regional IAF, due to the need to solve problems specific to the regional agro-industrial complex, associated with the implementation of the production, financial, innovation, resource potential of the industry. This research is based on the assumption that the application of a management methodology hinged on a multidimensional system analysis will make it possible to form an effective management system for integrated agro-industrial formations and obtain an organizational hierarchy for each level of management, taking into account the requirements of the external environment and the economic state of the research object.

2 Materials and Methods The methodological basis of the research is the fundamental and conceptual provisions of Russian and foreign scientists in the field of systems theory and systems analysis. The process of developing models and mechanisms for managing the effective development of the IAF is based on systemic, process, synergetic, economic-qualimetric, innovative and conceptual-methodological approaches using methods of analysis and synthesis, modeling, formalization, systemic and statistical analysis, expert assessments, tabular and graphical interpretation results. The IAF management methodology is based on the use of multifaceted systems analysis, the application of which is aimed at: - formation of subsystems and a general control system adapted to the requirements of the external and internal environment; - development of strategic guidelines based on multivariate forecasting of indicators of the development of an integrated agro-industrial formation and its agro-industrial subsystems; - determination of priority directions of income and expenditure policy, depending on the changing dynamics of the external environment. The main prerequisites for the application of system analysis in the design and study of complex systems, the formation of management decisions in conditions of incomplete or fragmented information, lack of resources, including labor, are set out in the works of (Golubkov,

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1982). The solution to the problems of the development of agri-food systems is based on the use of formalized models and informal knowledge and methods. When problem situations arise, a system analysis algorithm is developed, including a description of an object or problem in the form of a system; the appropriate methodological toolkit is determined. The applied methods, methodological tools are determined by the sequence of developed and regulated stages and sub-stages of system analysis. In a significant part of Antonov (2004), Anfilatov et al. (2009), Volkova & Denisov (2019),), the methods of system analysis of complex systems are used for: - formulation and identification of a range of problems; - determining the goals and objectives of the study; - development of decision-making models and alternative options; - evaluating alternatives and finding solutions; - implementation of the decisions taken; - determining the effectiveness of implemented solutions. The points of view of the researchers agree that the definition of the goals and functions of the system is fundamental in the implementation of the system analysis methodology, while the choice of methods for obtaining and evaluating models directly depends on the problem situation for which the methodology is being developed. Our point of view boils down to the fact that in order to improve the management of the development of the IAF, the methodology of systems analysis is applicable in the implementation of the following stages: 1. Identification of the IAF management problem: analysis of the internal and external environment; identification and formulation of the problem. 2. Goal-setting and specification of tasks: analysis of methodological approaches to solving the set tasks, with the definition of the apparatus and tools for the solution. 3. Modeling and development of an algorithm for managerial decisions for the assigned tasks: determination of methodological tools, development of models of managerial decisions and alternative solutions for each task. 4. Evaluation of alternatives and search for solutions: search and selection of evaluation methods, the study of the possibilities of their application. 5. Implementation of management decisions: a comparative analysis of assessment results, selection of the optimal solution to the problem. The works of Aaker (2007); Russell (2002); Baranovskaya et al. (2011); Makarevich, 2015; Milner, 2002) substantiated general approaches in the field of methodology of strategic management and planning of activities of integrated structures. Makarevich (2015) studied in detail the methodology of system-cognitive analysis, a distinctive feature of which is the possibility of implementing classical approaches of strategic management in the presence of incompleteness and fragmentation of data for making management decisions.

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3 Results and Discussion In agroeconomics, the use of management methods is interconnected not only with the characteristics of the management object itself, but also with environmental factors in which the business entity develops. The architecture of the designated ecosystem has a complex structure and includes natural, macroeconomic, microeconomic, information and analytical components. At the same time, the information environment is distinguished by the imperfection of the initial databases, noisiness (distortions) and incomplete reporting information. According to the author's refined definition, IAF management is a process that has a complex cross-sectoral nature, because the association is a complex multi-level system with modification variability; consisting of interconnected organizations; operating in a complex, competitive and dynamic environment. Thus, the IAF ecosystem, being a complex nonlinear multi-parameter control object, has a high degree of uncertainty in its functioning and acceleration (Figure 1).

ECOSYSTEM NATURAL COMPONENT: geography, climate, resources

INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL COMPONENT: Databases, reporting indicators

ENTERPRISES PROCESSING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

INTEGRATED AGROINDUSTRIAL FORMATION

RURAL HOUSEHOLD ENTERPRISES

TRADE, SERVICE, LEASING

MACRO-ECONOMIC COMPONENT: demand, supply, competitive environment

MICRO-ECONOMIC COMPONENT: technical and technological base, human resources

SUBJECT OF CONTROL: HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OF FUNCTIONING

REQUIREMENTS FOR METHODOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS FOR MODELING THE CONTROL OBJECT

Figure 1: Characteristics of the management object as part of the ecosystem Management of an integrated agro-industrial formation provides a proactive response to expected situations, threats and risks. In this regard, we consider it expedient to determine the range of classification features with the allocation of factors affecting the control object and the identification of threats caused by the properties of these factors. The classification of problem areas associated with factors affecting the control object is shown in Figure 2.

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I ZONE: The problem of comparability of indicators forming factors in the framework of the selected model of the control object

Factors of different nature and their forming indicators measured in different coordinate systems

II ZONE: The problem of determining quantitative indicators determining the character of cause and effect relationship between input and output parameters. Quantitative indicators should be comparable and calculated based on empirical data for processing parameters of different nature in a unified multifactor model

III ZONE: The problem of unification of initial data (inaccurate and fragmented) under the conditions of a close interconnection of factors affecting a complex (nonlinear) control object

Figure 2: Classification of problem areas with the allocation of environmental factors affecting the control object Justification of the requirements for the control method. The IAF as a Control Object (CO) has several specific properties: complexity, multifactorial, weakly deterministic, nonlinearity. The highlighted qualities make it difficult to develop and implement an adequate IAF control system. The initial data on the formation are fragmented and inaccurate. To generate the missing data on the object of modeling, in technical sciences, as a rule, several experimental, experimental operations are carried out, which in relation to the IAF, with a characteristic long (more than a year) control cycle, is excluded (Figure 3). BACKGROUND INFO - Inaccuracy,

- Fragmentation, - Insufficiency

OBJECT OF CONTROL: - Impossibility to carry out experiments for the purpose of its detailed survey or information supplementation

CONTROL CYCLE DURATION:

- Significant (more than a year)

IAF: COMPLEX (NONLINEAR) CONTROL OBJECT

COMPLEXITY

MULTI-FACTOR

LOW DETERMINATION

NONLINEARITY

Figure 3: Characteristics of the IAF as a control object Many tasks in the IAF control system can be solved only based on the control object model, which identifies the intensity and vector of the impact of the selected factors on the control object.

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The properties of the IAF as a complex systemic control object require substantiation (regulation) of the requirements for methodological tools when building the IAF control model (Figure 4). Feature I: complexity, multi-factor of the CO

The method provides the creation of high dimensional models reflecting numerous parameters of the CO

Requirements for the IAF management procedure toolkit: The methods provide formation and adaptation of the complex model of the control object

Feature II: quality of information flow: The method works under conditions of noise of information about the CO and inaccuracy of the initial data

Feature III: non-linearity of the CO The method takes into account the results interaction of multiple factors when generating the control solution Feature IV: multi-factor of the CO Method of providing intensity and vector of influence of a large array of input factors on the output parameters of the CO Feature V: weak determination of the CO The method provides influence on the CO of not only basic, but and secondary (differential) factors Feature VI: incomplete and fragmented information about the CO The method provides correct operation under the conditions of asymetric distribution of information

Figure 4: Regulation of methodological tools when building a management model of the IAF in accordance with the characteristics of the CO Integrated agro-industrial formations of the meso-economic level in this study are considered as a control object using automated control systems (ACS). The traditional approach uses classical methods of studying complex systems (genetic and simulation methods, calculation models), which, in our opinion, are not fully suitable for modeling the IAF control system as a complex self-developing business entity. Vector of increasing complexity, uncertainty of functioning OC and reducing the structurality of the problem

TRADITIONAL METHODS FOR SIMPLE SYSTEMS

METHODS FOR STUDYING COMPLEX

SIMULATION METHOD COMPUTABLE MODELS

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS FOR SUPER-COMPLEX

NETWORK MODELS

FRAME MODELS

LOGICAL MODELS PRODUCT MODELS

NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

SYSTEM-COGNITIVE ANALYSIS (HYBRID KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION MODEL)

GENETIC METHOD

III

Figure 5: Methods for managing objects of varying complexity and uncertainty In this regard, we consider it necessary to investigate the correspondence of classical methods to the requirements of IAF management. To solve management problems in the context of

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global trends in the development of agricultural territories in economic research, artificial intelligence methods are applicable, which provide a solution to a wide range of difficult, poorly formalized applied problems (Figure 5). The author's approach is based on the synthesis of fundamental and technical methods of analysis. At the same time, based on indicators determined in the temporal coordinate system, it is necessary to identify events in the history of the IAF (technical method of analysis), and then identify and substantiate the correlations between these events (fundamental method of analysis). The revealed dependencies are used to build a management model for an integrated agro-industrial formation. The source material about the control object, as a rule, contains data linked to time. In accordance with the methodology and technology of automated system-cognitive analysis (ASCanalysis) for management and decision-making, it is necessary to convert the initial data into information, then information into knowledge about how various decisions affect the IAF. The content of the categories «data», «information», «knowledge» and their interrelationships that affect transformation processes are shown in Figure 6. Data: Primary information generated and considered without its sense content Data analysis: Determination of facts and cause-effective relationships between them

Information: Data in which cause-effective relations are identified (meaningful information) Purpose setting: Assessment of the degree of information influence on the achievement of goals

KNOWLEDGE: Information required to achieve the purpose of effective management of the IAF

Figure 6: Data, information, knowledge and their relationships needed to manage the IAF Thus, to solve the problems of modeling the control system of the IAF, it is necessary to consistently increase the level of formalization of the initial data to such an extent that will ensure their input into the intelligent system. The application of the cognitive approach is carried out to: - converting initial data into information; - converting information into knowledge; - application of knowledge to solve various problems related to the management of the IAF and the implementation of managerial actions.

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All models of knowledge representation are grouped according to the following classification criteria: 1) clear and fuzzy; 2) procedural and declarative. To solve the problems of effective management of the IAF, fuzzy declarative models are applicable, which include the ASC-analysis model implemented in the intellectual system «Eidos» [12]. Intelligent methods and systems are subdivided into those using traditional logic with two variations of the truth of decisions: 1. «Truth», «Lies». Production, network and logical models are based on the traditional Aristotelian logic (the doctrine of scientific proof), which is trans-discursive (Aristotle, 1978). These models and the software systems that implement them are practically not applicable to control such a highly complex and contradictory object as the IAF. 2. The degree of truth that takes a series of discrete values or values that change smoothly, continuously. Neural network and frame models, as well as fuzzy logic models (Zadeh, 1996) with a certain degree of truth. In Zadeh's fuzzy logic (1996), the level of truth is not derived based on empirical databases, but is set artificially. A feature of the frame model, (super-difficult to implement), is the rapid increase in complexity with an increase in the number of frames. In the neural network model, there is a problem of interpreting the weight coefficients, which complicates the study of the modeled object. The production models used in expert systems also have some disadvantages: - there is a need to attract professional cognitive engineers to increase the degree of formalization of knowledge and input into the software system, which is unrealistic given the dimensions of the models that are important and necessary for modeling the IAF control system; - difficulties arise when studying the object of modeling on the basis of its model of knowledge, based on recalculation and reforming during their application, as well as taking up significant computational resources and time. The identified shortcomings of clear and production knowledge models can be eliminated when using the ASC-analysis in its software toolkit - the «Eidos» system (Figure 7). The knowledge model of ASC-analysis is considered a hybrid model (similar to a frame model) with a non-local interpreted neural network and with simplified software without loss of functionality. Unlike traditional neural networks, the ASC-analysis model makes it possible to comparatively analyze not data or information, but knowledge in various types of measuring scales. ASC-analysis is proposed to be classified according to some characteristics: 1) An analysis based on the theoretical substantiation of a meaningful interpretation of a hybrid knowledge model with a simple software implementation (a combination of the properties of a frame and neural network models);

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2) Analysis with high accuracy and independence of the calculation results from the units of measurement of the original data (by analogy with statistical systems).

Logic type

- similarity: ASC-analysis, logical (Zadeh, 1996), frame, neural network - fuzzy models; - difference: classic logical, network, production models based on the Aristotle's logic

Learning method: - similarity: ASC analysis, neural network and frame models learning on the basis of empirical data, when the method of back propagation of error is applied for selection; - difference: in the asc-analysis model, learning is carried out by the direct counting method, the neurons are nonlocal and their interaction is nonlinear.

A fuzzy knowledge model necessary for simulating the IAF as a control object should: 1.-have large dimension with the degree of true implications; - have the sense of the quantity of knowledge in the value of the factor about the future state of the control object; - to be declarative, as on the basis of its knowledge bases, the tasks of decision-making, forecasting and researching the simulation object are solved; - be supported by a developed and available software system for all users

Method for determining the degree of truth: - similarity: asc-analysis, neural network and frame models - the degree of truth is determined based on empirical data: - difference: in the fuzzy logic (Zadeh, 1996) the degree of truth is determined by the expert Method for content interpreting weight coefficients: - difference: in the asc-analysis model, weight coefficients have a clear, theoretically grounded content interpretation as a quantity of knowledge. In the neural network model the problem of content interpretation of weight coefficients is not solved.

Difference of ASC-analysis from production model: 1. The ASC-analysis model may contain knowledge, to represent that would be required over 10 billion fuzzy products with a degree of truth described on the basis of empirical data. 2. In production (experimental) systems the maximum amount is not more than 1000. 3. In the production model the products have 2 variants of truth («true», «false»).

Figure 7: Distinctive features of the ASC-analysis for the selected classification features Systematic ASC-analysis is considered by us as a way of cognition and can be structured according to basic cognitive (cognitive) operations. The minimum sufficient set of these operations (cognitive configurator) follows from the formalized cognitive concept, according to which the cognition process is considered as a multilevel hierarchical system of transformation: data – information – knowledge. In this system, the cognitive structures of each level are the result of the integration of the structures of the previous level. The levels of the hierarchical transformation system are as follows (Kuhn, 2020): - the first level - the presence of discrete components of sensory perception; - the second level - embedding data into the image of a specific object; - the third level - embedding data into generalized images of classes and factors; - the fourth level - the formation of clusters based on data; - the fifth level - the formation of constructs based on data. - the sixth level - the formation of the current paradigm of reality based on the system of constructors;

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- the seventh level - the formation of knowledge: the current paradigm is not the only possible one, and one paradigm of reality is periodically replaced by another in the course of transformation processes. The main thing for the cognitive concept is the concept of precedent or fact - the ratio of discrete and integral components of knowledge. In ASC-analysis, a fact is considered as a quantum of knowledge, which is the basis for its formalization. The concept, formed by Baklazhenko (2013), contains a cognitive configurator in the form of a system of basic cognitive operations and a generalized scheme of ASC-analysis, structured to the level of basic cognitive operations. There is a relationship between the cognitive structures of different levels of the hierarchy «discrete – integral». This connection is the basis for the formalization of semantic meanings. The cognitive configurator is the smallest perfect system of basic cognitive operations of system analysis. The mathematical model of ASC-analysis based on information theory includes: - a systemic generalization of the Hartley formula (Hartley, 1959); - systemic generalization of the Kharkevich formula (Kharkevich, 1960); - method of forming a matrix of absolute frequencies; - compilation of a matrix of relative and absolute frequencies; - obtaining a matrix of information content; - solving problems of identification (forecasting, management (decision-support) and research of the simulated subject area. The ASC-analysis model solves the important problems of metrization of various measuring scales (nominal, ordinal, numerical) and comparable processing of descriptions of objects in them. The intelligent system «Eidos» is a developing and constantly improving software toolkit for ASС-analysis. Eidos provides the construction of comparable large-dimensional models based on fragmented, noisy initial data of various nature (numerical, text). Eidos cognitive analytical system is adapted for use in agriculture, including in the development management system of integrated agro-industrial formations. Eidos is applicable for solving problems of identification, forecasting, decision-making (management) and studying IAF. It connects subsystems and modes that provide: - input of initial data from external databases of various standards (tables, texts, images); - creation and measurement of the reliability of statistical and knowledge models; - solving problems of management, identification, forecasting and study of the subject area. Thus, the ASC analysis seems to be an adequate tool for solving the problems of managing a multi-sectoral integrated agro-industrial formation on the basis of fragmented (incomplete) and noisy information about it and its enterprises. 4

Conclusion Management of an integrated agro-industrial formation is a process that has a complex

cross-sectoral nature, due to the fact that the association is a complex multi-level system with modification variability; consisting of interconnected organizations; operating in a complex, competitive and dynamic environment.

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The proposed concept for managing the development of integrated agro-industrial formations is based on the use of an integrated, multi-aspect approach to solving strategic problems solved based on the system analysis methodology. Modeling a control object is based on the synthesis of fundamental and technical analysis methods. At the same time, on the basis of indicators determined in a temporal coordinate system, it is recommended to identify events in the history of the IAF (technical method of analysis), and then identify and substantiate correlations between these events (fundamental method of analysis). The revealed dependencies are used to build a management model for an integrated agroindustrial formation. In the course of the study, conceptual and theoretical and methodological provisions for managing the development of integrated agro-industrial formations operating in territorial socioeconomic systems were clarified and developed, including: - the state of the issue of management of the IAF as part of the regional agro-industrial complex was studied and the economic, organizational and managerial problems of their development were considered; - the problematic aspects of the IAF development management were investigated and the methodology of system analysis was substantiated; - From the analysis of the affected subject area, the substantive basis of the methodology of system analysis and the methodology of development management of the IAF is substantiated. The considered set of methods of the economic and economic-mathematical apparatus is focused on the development of a variety of alternative options for the development of the research object, their assessment and the adoption of an optimal management decision. The automated system-cognitive analysis seems to be an adequate tool for solving management problems of a multi-sectoral integrated agro-industrial formation based on fragmented (incomplete) and noisy information about it and its member enterprises.

5 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6 Acknowledgement This reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-010-00404.

7 References Aaker, D. (2007). Strategic Market Management. Translated from English. S.G. Bozhuk (Ed.), St. Petersburg: Peter, 496p. Anfilatov, B.C., Emelyanov A.A., Kukushkin A.A. (2009). Systems Analysis in Management. Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 368p. Antonov, A.V. (2004). System analysis. Moscow: Higher School, 454p. Aristotle. (1978). Compositions. Philosophical Heritage Series, V2(Organon). Moscow: Mysl, Editorial and introductory article by Z.N. Mikeladze, 688p.

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Baklazhenko, G.A. (2013). Problems of the development of the management system of the agro-industrial complex of Russia. Economy, labor, management in agriculture, 2(15), 27-30. Baranovskaya, T.P., Vostroknutov A.E., Makarevich O.A. (2011). Models and methods of systemic and cognitive analysis for improving the holding's management system. International scientific and practical conference on Economic and legal aspects of Russia's modernization strategy: potential and prospects for the implementation of social and technological innovations, Part 1, Krasnodar: YIM, 54-64. Golubyatnikova, Y. Y., Charykova, O. G., Cherepovskaya, N. A., Doborovich, A. N., Lesovik, R. V., Leonova, O. V., ... & Dobrydina, I. M. (2019). Conceptual approaches to economic risk management at the enterprises of agro-industrial complex in Belgorod Region. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 10(1), 47-60. Hartley, R. (1959). Information transmission - information theory and its applications. Moscow: Progress, 312p. Kharkevich, A.A. (1960). On the value of information. Problems of Cybernetics, 4, 53-57. Kuhn, T. (2020). The structure of scientific revolutions, Moscow: AST, 320p. Makarevich, O.A. (2015). Management of corporate integrated structures in the agro-industrial sector of the economy: Search for an effective development model: economic and legal aspects of socio-economic modernization in the post-Soviet space. Collection of articles of the international scientific and practical conference, Krasnodar, 182-192. Milner, B.Z. (2002). Organization theory. 2nd Ed., Moscow: INFRA-M, 480p. Russell L.A. (2002). Planning the Future of the Corporation. Translated from English - Moscow: Sirin, 256p.

Volkova, V.N., Denisov A.A. (2019). Systems theory and systems analysis. Moscow: Yurayt Publishing House, 462p. Zadeh, L. A., Klir, G. J., & Yuan, B. (1996). Fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy systems. World Scientific. Dr.Kairova Nazirat Khasanovna is an Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". She is a Candidate of Economic Sciences. She graduated with honors in Economic Cybernetics from the Russian State Agrarian University Moscow Agricultural Academy named after K.A. Timiryazev. She defended her Ph.D. thesis at the FSBEIHE "KabardinoBalkarian State Agrarian University". Her research interests are Innovation Potential, Sustainable Development, Integrated Agro-industrial Formations, Agroecosystem, Systemic Modernization, Synergistic effect, Agro-industrial Complex. Dr.Shokumova Rameta Yezidovna is an Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". She is a Candidate of Economic Sciences. She graduated with honors in Accounting, Analysis and Control of Economic Activity from the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". She defended her Ph.D. thesis at the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". Her research interests are Agro-industrial Complex, Innovation Potential, Sustainable Development, Agriculture, Investment, Innovation, Integration and Cooperation in the Agro-industrial Complex, Modernization, Sectoral Development. Dr. Khalishkhova Laura Zaurbekovna is an Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". Candidate of Economic Sciences. She graduated with honors in Accounting and Audit from the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". She defended her Ph.D. thesis at the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University". Her research interests are Agroecosystem, Natural Resource Potential, Rationalization of Environmental Management, Organizational and Economic Mechanism of Environmental Management, Innovative Development, Recreation, Investment, Management, Sustainable Development, Digital Ecosystem, Digital Agriculture. Marzhokhov Zamudin Sultanovich is a Specialist of the Ministry of Economic Development of the KBR. He graduated with honors from the FSBEIHE "Kabardino-Balkarian State Agrarian University" in Finance and Credit. His research interests are Innovative Potential, Sustainable Development, Integrated Agro-industrial Formations, Agroecosystem, Systemic Modernization, Synergistic Effect, Agro-Industrial Complex.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Optimized Deep Learning Procedure by Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms for Determining Reservoir Inflow Krotsuwan Phosuwan1 and Panuwat Pinthong1* Faculty of Technical Education, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Thailand. * (Tel: +066 858 317 983, s6102032910517@email.kmutnb.ac.th)

Paper ID: 12A10P Volume 12 Issue 10

Abstract

The determination of the reservoir inflow would be directly affected the efficiency of reservoir operation. Artificial intelligence techniques Received 29 July 2021 Received in revised form 14 such as Artificial Neural Networks, Deep Learning (DL), and Genetic October 2021 Algorithms (GAs) have been applied to many case studies of water resource Accepted 22 October 2020 management, for example, the determined relationship between rainfall and Available online 06 August runoff, and rainfall forecast. DL has been successful for the rainfall-runoff 2021 model, but the performance of the model depends on its parameters that Keywords: take more time-consuming for model development and is difficult to Rainfall-Runoff model; determine the optimum values. This paper presents the development of the Reservoir Operation; Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms (APGA) model to explore the Multilayer Perceptron; optimum procedure of deep learning for reservoir inflow simulation for the ANNs; AGA; APOGA; Kaeng Krachan Reservoir and compare performance with the Adaptive APGA; Kaeng Krachan Genetic Algorithm (AGA). The current study found that the mean absolute reservoir; Phetchaburi percentage error (MAPE) of the reservoir inflow from APGA was lower than river basin; Optimum deep learning AGA in all periods, so the optimum DL procedure from APGA outperforms parameters; Remaining AGA, while the DL layer architecture from APGA was more complex than Life Time (RLT); Water AGA. In summary, APGA may be suitable for determining optimum DL resource manangement; procedure than AGA, but pc and pm parameters should be studied in the Reduced flood; Reservoir future. management.

Cite This Article: Phosuwan, K., Pinthong, P. (2021). Optimized Deep Learning Procedure by Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms for Determining Reservoir Inflow. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10P, 1-11. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.205

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1 Introduction The accurate determination of the reservoir inflow directly affects the efficiency of reservoir operation, such as increasing the capacity of flood protection and reducing water shortage in the dry season [1]. In recent years, many researchers have developed and utilized methods to study the rainfallrunoff relationship. One is Artificial intelligence techniques, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), and Genetic Algorithms (GAs). DL has been applied to many case studies of water resource management problems. In [2], ANNs were used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff in a rural drainage area in southern England that has a watershed area of about 30 km2. The result found that the impact of the complex of the networks may affect the model performance, and less complex network generalizes better performance than more complex networks. In addition, ANNs could simulate the runoff accurately in this case study. Unlike [3], the results obtained that the performance of prediction from multilayer architecture model had better performance than the single-layer architecture model. DL has many parameters such as weights, bias, number of hidden layers, activation functions, and hyperparameters that affect the accuracy of the model [4]; consequently, some researchers have been applied optimization techniques, for example, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) [5], and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) [6] for tuning DL parameters. GAs were explained in [7] are a stochastic search technique that has been applied and successful in many real-world optimization problems to determine optimum variables in the solution, and their three important parameters are population size, probability of crossover, and probability of mutation. One study by [8] developed the GA-DLNN hybrid model adapted from GAs and DL to predict the bearing capacity of the driven pile, the result obtained that the GA-DLNN hybrid model could search for the optimum DL parameters for the prediction process. Following the first of developing GAs, many researchers have emphasized the improving performance of GAs. For example, [9] proposed the Adaptive Population Pool Size Based Genetic Algorithm (APOGA). In this study, the population pool size of GAs was modified to play a role in objective fitness. Moreover, the result showed that APOGA surpasses standard GAs. In [10] applied the Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA) of which parameters consist of the probability of mutation and probability of crossover that were modified automatically in each generation depend on population fitness. As the result, the AGA used less execution time and better performance than standard GAs. This study develops the Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms (APGA) model that self-tuning population size, probability of mutation, and probability of crossover parameters, and scrutinize its performance by applying it to explore optimum parameters of deep learning for reservoir inflow simulation; furthermore, the statistical model will be used to evaluate the model performance and compare between APGA and AGA model.

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2 Materials and Methodology 2.1 Study Area The selected case study in this research at the Kaeng Krachan Reservoir locates in the Phetchaburi River Basin that lies between 12°30’ and 13°30’ north of the equator and at eastern longitude from 99° to 100°15’ east in Southwest of Thailand (Figure 1). With a watershed area of 2,210 km2, the mean annual rainfall is 1,046 mm per year and the average reservoir inflow is about 917 million cubic meters (MCM) per year. This reservoir is the most important tool for supply water to the demand area and reduces floods at the downstream area of the Phetchaburi River Basin. Table 1 shows some characteristics of the reservoir, it can be seen that the mean annual inflow was higher than the reservoir capacity.

Figure 1: Location of the Kaeng Krachan Reservoir and its watershed in the Phetchaburi River Basin of Thailand. Table 1: Characteristics of the Kaeng Krachan Reservoir Parameters

Kaeng Krachan Reservoir 2

Watershed area (km ) Maximum storage volume (MCM) Normal storage volume (MCM) Dead storage volume (MCM) Mean annual inflow (MCM) Mean annual rainfall (mm)

2,210.00 895.30 710.00 65.00 917.00 1,046.00

2.2 Data Collection The rain gauge datasets and reservoir inflow datasets are the historical daily time series obtained from the Royal Irrigation Department. Four selected ground base rainfall stations in this study were 370451, 370101, 370441, and 370411. In addition, reservoir inflow datasets were calculated by the water balance of the Kaeng Krachan Reservoir. Figure 1 above provides the location of the selected rainfall station and the Kaeng Krachan Reservoir. Table 2 shows some statistical information about rainfall and reservoir inflow datasets. It can be seen from its data that the highest rainfall was in the training period, and the highest inflow was in the testing periods.

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Table 2: List of the datasets statistical information. Statistical Parameters

Datasets training testing application training testing application

rainfall (mm) inflow (MCM)

µ 2.35 2.63 3.37 2.47 3.91 2.06

maximum 154.03 75.60 97.55 70.33 110.69 25.96

minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Period 2006-2017 2018-2019 2020 2006-2017 2018-2019 2020

Because the previous data of rainfall and reservoir inflow variables may be used as input for the rainfall-runoff (or reservoir inflow) model [2], the first five previous rainfall and reservoir inflow have the highest correlation with reservoir inflow were investigated. The results of the correlation analysis were summarised in Table 3 so that antecedent daily rainfall from 1 to 5 days {Pt-1 … Pt-5} and antecedent daily inflow from 1 to 5 days {It-1 … It-5} were combined to create 25 data sets, then were input to DL model and selected for the best performance of simulation inflow (It) model. The inflow at time step t (It) was made from antecedent daily rainfall and reservoir inflow is given by 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡 = 𝑓𝑓{𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡−1 , 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡−2 … 𝐼𝐼𝑡𝑡−5 , 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡−1 , 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡−2 … 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡−5 }

(1).

Table 3: The first five previous rainfall and reservoir inflow have the highest correlation with reservoir inflow; sorted by correlation descending No 1 2 3 4 5

Antecedent daily rainfall Pt-2 Pt-3 Pt-1 Pt-4 Pt-5

Antecedent daily inflow It-1 It-2 It-3 It-4 It-5

The best input dataset was selected by the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) of the DL model. After that, it was used as input for the DL model to compared the performance between APGA and AGA models.

2.3 Deep Learning TensorFlow library [11] was used for developing the DL model, and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as part of the deep learning method was chosen for simulating reservoir inflow in this research.

2.4 Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms: APGA In this study, the Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms: APGA was developed and adapted from Adaptive Population Pool Size Based Genetic Algorithm: APOGA in [9] and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm: AGA in [10]; as a result, APGA adjusts Genetic Algorithms parameters consists of population size, probability of crossover, and probability of mutation automatically. The objective function of the APGA is to minimize the mean absolute error (MAE) that is a measure of errors between simulate reservoir inflow from DL model versus observation datasets, and the five parameters of the DL model procedure were selected as variables include layer architecture, layer

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activation functions, learning rate, epochs, and batch size. The flow chart of APGA is presented in Figure 2, with the preliminary details as below. START Initialize Evaluation fitness Calculate RLT GAs Operations Evaluation fitness Calculate RLT

No No

Yes

Is best fitness

Is best fitness improved till T iteration?

Yes

Grow population

Shrink population based on RLT Decrease RLT by Is any RLT

Yes

Remove corresponding chromosome

zero? No

Adjust probability of crossover Is termination criterion met?

Adjust probability of mutation

Yes

END

Figure 2: Flowchart of APGA. Adapted from [9]. The Remaining Life Time (RLT) is a lifetime measure for each chromosome calculated by the mathematical formulation in Equation 2 [9]. 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 (𝑖𝑖 ) = �1 1

𝐹𝐹 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 −𝐹𝐹(𝑖𝑖)

𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 + 𝜂𝜂 𝐹𝐹𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤−𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 ; 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝐹𝐹 (𝑖𝑖 ) > 𝐹𝐹 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎

�𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 + 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 � + 𝜂𝜂

𝐹𝐹 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 −𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓(𝑖𝑖) 𝐹𝐹 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 −𝐹𝐹 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏

; 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝐹𝐹(𝑖𝑖 ) < 𝐹𝐹 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎

(2)

Where 𝜂𝜂 = 2 �𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 − 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 �; LTmax and LTmin are the maximum and minimum lifetimes of the

chromosome in the population pool, respectively. In each generation, RLT is monitored and

calculated new value. Once the RLT of the chromosome attains zeros, the chromosome is removed from the population pool.

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As in [9], the RLT of the new chromosome is calculated using Equation (2). Depending on the RLT of the entire population pool and the fitness values, the resizing arises. For resizing, the population size is grown at a rate as 𝐺𝐺 = 𝛼𝛼 𝑥𝑥 (𝐼𝐼𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 − 𝐼𝐼)𝑥𝑥

𝐹𝐹 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 −𝐹𝐹 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐹𝐹 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖

(3).

In Equation (3), α is a random real value that is greater than or equal to 0.0 and less than 1.0, G, Fnewbest, Finitialbest, Imax, and I are growth size, best fitness value of current iteration, best fitness value of previous iteration, initial best fitness, the maximum number of generation and current iteration number, respectively. 𝑃𝑃𝑐𝑐 = �

𝑘𝑘1 (𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 − 𝑓𝑓 ′ )/(𝑓𝑓 ̅ − 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 ) ; 𝑓𝑓 ′ ≤ 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑘𝑘3 ; 𝑓𝑓 ′ > 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚

𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚 = �

𝑘𝑘2 (𝑓𝑓 − 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 )/(𝑓𝑓 ̅ − 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 ) ; 𝑓𝑓 ≥ 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑘𝑘4 ; 𝑓𝑓 < 𝑓𝑓𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚

(4) (5)

The probability of crossover (pc) and probability of mutation (pm) are calculated by Equations (4) and (5), which consist of average fitness value (𝑓𝑓)̅ of the population, minimum fitness value fmin of the population and the best fitness (f’) presents in Equations (4) and (5). As analyzed by [10], the values of k4 and k2 were assigned to 0.5, while k1 and k3 values were assigned to 1.0.

2.5 Evaluation Criteria for Model Comparison The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) which was described in [12] was chosen as the statistical tool for measuring and comparing model performance.

3 Results and Discussion 3.1 Best Input Set for DL Model Because the input data of DL affected the model performance, the antecedent rainfall and reservoir inflow datasets were combined to created twenty-five datasets and used as input to APGA for optimum DL procedure. After that, the best result of all models that have the lowest MAE was selected, as a result, the input group It-1, It-2, It-3, It-4, Pt-1, Pt-2, Pt-3, Pt-4, and Pt-5 affected the lowest MAE of APGA and was selected as input for APGA and AGA model for comparing model performance.

3.2 Sensitivity Analysis for Population Size of AGA Model The sensitivity analysis for population size is an important process as the consequence of the population size parameter is directly affected AGA model performance. AGA has a process for automatically adjusting the probability of crossover and probability of mutation in each generation; nevertheless, population size is fixed for all generations. In this process, the different values of population sizes (population size = 20 to 100 in steps of 10) were used for sensitivity analysis for population size were performed. In sum, while the population size equaled to 90, AGA obtained an optimum solution that MAE was at 0.636 MCM, as the result shown in Figure 3.

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Minimum fitness

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 20

100

Population size

Figure 3: Sensitivity analysis for the population size of AGA model

3.3 Model Comparison and Reservoir Inflow Simulation The results of the DL procedure of the APGA and AGA model were shown in Table 4, and they were discovered that the layer architecture of the DL model of the APGA model was more complex than the AGA model. Table 4: Optimum Deep Learning parameters Parameters Layer architecture Layer activators Learning rate Epochs Batch size

APGA 9, 440, 358, 52, 183, 283, 435, 280, 396, 49, 243, 73, 109, 405, 1 relu, relu, relu, tanh, tanh, relu, relu, tanh, elu, tanh, relu, -, tanh, elu, tanh 0.0001 17 116

AGA 9, 136, 201, 213, 188, 215, 101, 1 tanh, elu, relu, elu, relu, relu, tanh 0.0007993 15 559

Table 5: Performances of APGA and AGA models Statistic MAPE (%) R2

Model APGA AGA APGA AGA

Training 16.73 17.66 0.945 0.883

Testing 15.40 17.08 0.973 0.953

Application 16.88 18.04 0.922 0.825

While the study was in process of comparing model performance, the MAPE was used and presented in Table 5. It can be seen that the MAPE of the APGA model was lower than the AGA model, and R2 of the APGA model was higher than the AGA model at the training, testing, and application periods. The most striking result to emerge from Table 5 is that the APGA model may outperform the AGA model.

The comparison of the fitness values of the APGA and AGA model in

each generation, as shown in Figure 4, indicated that the fitness of both models dramatically decreases after the initial population to the third generation, and the APGA model had lower fitness than the AGA model in all generations. From this figure, it can be seen that the APGA model may have more performance than the AGA model. The percent errors in training, testing, and application periods were shown in Figures 5, 6, and 7, respectively. In the training period, the APGA model had percent errors of inflow between 0.00 to 410.50 percent, and AGA had percent errors between 0.01 to 336.37 percent. In the testing

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period, the APGA model had percent errors between 0.04 to 236.26 percent, and AGA had percent errors between 0.19 to 354.64 percent. In addition, in the application period, the APGA model had percent errors between 0.31-94.47%, and AGA had percent errors between 0.07-162.30%. 0.85 APGA

Fitness Values

0.80

AGA

0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0

Generations

Figure 4: Comparison of the fitness values of the APGA and AGA models. 450

APGA

400

AGA

Percent Error

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0

1,000

2,000

Days

3,000

4,000

Figure 5: The comparison of percent error from APGA and AGA models during the training period 400

APGA

350

AGA

Percent Error

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0

100

200

300

400

Days

500

600

700

800

Figure 6: The comparison of percent error from APGA and AGA models during the testing period.

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180

APGA

160

AGA

Percent Error

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0

100

150

200

Days

250

300

350

400

Figure 7: The comparison of percent error from APGA and AGA models during the application period Figures 8, 9, and 10 are presented the comparison between observed reservoir inflow, simulation results of the APGA and AGP models during the training, testing, and application period, respectively. In the training period, the maximum inflow of observed data, APGA, and AGA models were 70.33, 44.86, and 55.94 MCM, respectively. In the testing period, the maximum inflow of observed data, APGA, and AGA models were 110.69, 46.84, and 43.17 MCM, respectively. In the application period, the maximum inflow of observed data, APGA, and AGA models were 25.95, 16.52, and 19.86 MCM, respectively. In general, both models satisfactorily simulated the reservoir inflow, but they were inclined to underestimate the peak-flow events.

Inflow (MCM)

obs

AGA

APGA

60 40 20 0

1,000

2,000 Days

3,000

4,000

Figure 8: The comparison of inflow from observation data, APGA, and AGA models during the training period. 120

obs

Inflow (MCM)

100

AGA

APGA

80 60 40 20 0

200

400 Days

600

800

Figure 9: The comparison of inflow from observation data, APGA, and AGA models during the testing period.

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obs

AGA

APGA

Inflow (MCM)

25 20 15 10 5 0 0

100

150

200

Days

250

300

350

400

Figure 10: The comparison of inflow from observation data, APGA, and AGA models during the application period

4 Conclusion In this study, Adaptive Parameters Based Genetic Algorithms (APGA) was developed by adapting from Adaptive Population Pool Size Based Genetic Algorithm (APOGA) and Adaptive Probabilities of Crossover and Mutation Genetic Algorithm (AGA) for tuning DL parameters for determining reservoir inflow; consequently, its parameters, compose of the probability of crossover, probability of mutation, and population size, were changed automatically in each generation. APGA model has a lower fitness value and MAPE of the DL model than the AGA model. The results of this study indicated that the APGA model outperforms the AGA model for tuning deep learning parameters. At this point, the accurate inflow simulation from DL that was tuned by the APGA model may improve the efficiency of reservoir operation and reduce the impact of flooding. In addition, it may be suitable for applying to other real-world optimization problems. In future research, APGA will be applied to optimize multiple reservoir releases in the Phetchaburi River Basin to reduce flood and drought in the downstream area.

5 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

6 References [1]

S. Yang and T. Yang, "Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS," Advance in Meteorology, pp. 1-11, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/581756

[2]

A. W. Minns and M. J. Hall, "Artificial Neural Networks as Rainfall-Runoff Models," Hydrological Sciences journal, pp. 399-417, 1996. DOI: 10.1080/02626669609491511

[3]

J. Heaton, "Deep Learning and Neural Networks," Heaton Research Publisher Vol.3, 2015.

[4]

S. Afaq and S. Rao, "Significance Of Epochs On Training A Neural Network," International Journal Of Scientific & Technology, VOLUME 9, pp. 485-488, 2020.

[5]

D., Rivero, Dorado J., Fernández-Blanco E., Pazos A., "A Genetic Algorithm for ANN Design,

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Training and Simplification,". In: Cabestany J., Sandoval F., Prieto A., Corchado J.M. (eds) BioInspired Systems: Computational and Ambient Intelligence. IWANN 2009. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 5517. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02478-8_49 [6]

G. A. Beatriz and V. A. Roberto, "Designing Artificial Neural Networks Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms," Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/369298

[7]

S. N. Sivanandam and S. N. Deepa, " Introduction to Genetic Algorithms", New York: Springer, 2008.

[8]

T. A. Pham, V. Q. Tran and H.-L. T. Vu, "Design Deep Neural Network Architecture Using a Genetic Algorithm for Estimation of Pile Bearing Capacity," LoS ONE, pp. 1-25, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243030

[9]

B.R.Rajakumara and A. George, "APOGA: An Adaptive Population Pool Size Based Genetic Algorithm," 2013.

[10]

A. Laoufi, S. Hadjeri and A. Hazzab, "Adaptive Probabilities of Crossover and Mutation in Genetic Algorithms for power economic dispatch," International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, vol. 1(3), pp. 393-408, 2006.

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M. Abadi, P. Barham, J. Chen, Z. Chen, A. Davis, J. Dean, M. Devin, S. Ghemawat, G. Irving, M. Isard, M. Kudlur, J. Levenberg, R. Monga, S. Moore, D. G. Murray, B. Steiner and P. Tucker, "TensorFlow: A System for Large-Scale Machine Learning," in 12th USENIX Symposium on Operating Systems Design and Implementation (OSDI ’16), Savannah, GA, USA, 2016.

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P. M. Swamidass "MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)." Encyclopedia of Production and Manufacturing Management, 462-462, 2000. DOI: 10.1007/1-4020-0612-8_580 Krotsuwan Phosuwan is a student at the Department of Teacher Training in Civil Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Thailand. He got a Bachelor’s degree in Irrigation Engineering from Kasetsart University, Thailand. His research includes Water Resource Management and Computer Application Development.

Dr.Panuwat Pinthong is a Faculty member at the Department of Teacher Training in Civil Engineering, and Head of Center for Water Engineering and Infrastructures Research King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok. He got a Ph.D. (Water Engineering and Management) from the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

A Review on Wire Electrical Discharge Machining of Advanced Conductive Materials Md Ehsan Asgar1*, Ajay Kumar Singh Singholi2 School of Information, Communication and Technology (USICT)Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, New Delhi, 110078, INDIA. 2 Mechanical and Automation Engineering Department, GB Pant Government Engineering College, New Delhi, 110020, INDIA. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +919999629550, Email: asgarehsan@gmail.com). 1

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10Q Volume 12 Issue 10

The evolution of advanced engineering materials, including superalloys, metal matrices, and ceramics, has led to advancements in Received 29 April 2021 the area of material engineering. These materials are not easily machined Received in revised form 22 July 2021 due to their properties such as rigidity, strength, hardness, and durability, Accepted 29 July 2021 and they face limitations in smooth machining with conventional machining. Available online 07 August Machining of these materials is successfully achieved by using a non2021 conventional approach to machining. Wire electrical discharge machining Keywords: (wire EDM) is an approach being used to create and manufacture threeAdvanced materials; dimensional (3D) complex structures and geometry with high cutting speed Wire EDM; Industry 4.0; to achieve higher efficiency and productivity, good surface quality, and Wire EDM Process better accuracy of these advanced engineering materials. The article optimization; EDM illustrates the evolution of the wire EDM process with various wire electrodes machine; Wire EDM for advanced materials with an emphasis on the most acceptable machining Process development; Type of dielectric fluid conditions. The material removal rate (MRR), surface roughness (SR), kerf flow; Components of thickness (Kw), and the surface characteristics acquired during the wire EDM. machining were taken into discussion. The literature of work published on wire EDM shows that the research is directed towards more recent aspects of wire EDM for advanced materials in the field of optimization. Disciplinary: Advanced Manufacturing and Technology. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Asgar, M. E., and Singholi, A. K. S. (2021). A Review on Wire Electrical Discharge Machining of Advanced Conductive Materials. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10Q, 1-10. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.206

1 Introduction Nowadays, Wire EDM is a well-known electro-thermal machining technique in which extraction of materials occurs from the sample due to the unstable electrical discharges generated between the workpiece and the moving wire as depicted in Figure 1. Wire EDM can rigorously cut the materials with a series of small

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discrete discharges with the existence of dielectric fluid around the machining area. The discharge generates extremely high-temperature estimates of around 8000 oC to 11700 oC and causes melting of material that leads to the extraction of material from the surface. The debris and waste generated from the machining zone are flushed out because of the continuous passage of dielectric fluid. The wire made of brass, copper, or tungsten is continuously travelling in wire EDM and must be loosened on one guide roller and wound on another guide roller to minimize or avoid the effect of material loss, which also contributes to tool wear. Efficient production capabilities, production reliability, stress-free and burr-free cutting, difficulty or even impossible to achieve the required surface characteristics of various materials by other machining methods, low cost, and high tolerances are the main advantages of wire EDM [1]. The paper incorporates the latest achievements in the field of the wire EDM process.

Figure 1. view of wire EDM cutting The number of publications in the wire EDM process increases continuously day by day because of its flexibility in ensuring complex shapes for various conductive materials. Solid and low-stiffness materials can also be machined through wire EDM.

1.1 Aspects of Wire EDM Process The Wire EDM process involves a vertically aligned running wire electrode and is supported by two guide subsystems. The upper wire guide support for the movement of fresh wire towards the workpiece can be achieved by steady movement in the horizontal plane as depicted in Figure 2. De-ionized water and electrodischarge machine oil are usually chosen as dielectric fluids due to their favorable properties, such as high fluidity and easy removal of debris or particles segregated from the electro erosive process. Other dielectric fluids are also studied and investigated in wire electro-discharge machining [2-4]. The moving wire speed through its axis must be larger to prevent the probable loss in diameter of the wire electrode owing to electrical erosion. The working gap between the wire and the workpiece is usually 0.01 to 0.05 millimeters and the size of the wire electrode varies from 0.01 to 0.5 millimeters. High-speed wire movement is used in the high-speed wire EDM technique for the machining of hard materials [5], [6], and requires tightness on the wire electrode to ensure its straightness and rectilinearity.

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1.2 Wire EDM Components and Equipment The wire EDM method employs a computerized numerical controlled worktable having an Xand Y-axis. The workpiece is held with a clamping mechanism on the worktable and a driving mechanism is utilized for steady movement of the wire electrode across the workpiece with tightness between upper and lower wire guides for straightness and rectilinearity, as depicted in Figure 2. The movement of the upper guide in Cartesian coordinates U and V axis is used to achieve the tapered surfaces driven by servo motors. The spark generator creates the pulses and makes it possible to validate and cause a series of discharges for the variability of various electrical parameters.

Figure 2: wire EDM machining zone and equipment. The wire EDM machining system includes the major components as depicted in Figure 3. All conductive workpieces can be machined using the wire EDM process. The utilization of wire as a tool makes for a precise machining process. Dielectric fluid continuously flows from the tank to the machining zone where ionization occurs between the workpiece and the wire electrode.

Figure 3. Major components of wire EDM

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A servo device monitors the distance between the wire and the workpiece in order to precisely extract the material from the workpiece. Poor performance of the servo controller system causes undesirable speed of wire EDM machines and delays in ignition time. The conversion of alternating current (AC) from the main utility source into pulsed direct current (DC) requires a power supply to generate discharges at the machining gap. The wire EDM process can be categorized and described based on the flow of dielectric fluid to the machining region [7], Figure 4:

Wire EDM process

Submerged type

Wire and workpiece are completely immersed in dielectric fluid

Non submerged type

Dielectric fluid released from the two nozzle in the cutting zone

Dry and near dry type

Dielectric fluid is substituted with gases in machining zone

Figure 4: wire EDM process according to types of dielectric fluid flow. Developments in numerical control (NC) subsystems have created a new era in the design of wire EDM equipment. Such tools and equipment have facilitated figuring out a wide range of obstacles in the short period required by the wire EDM machining process. The execution of computer numerical control (CNC) programs allows those who don’t have expertise in this field to work efficiently.

2 Materials Wire EDM can machine harder materials like tool steel, tungsten carbide, polycrystalline diamond compact, nickel-chromium alloy, titanium alloy, metal matrix composites (MMCs), and carbides with high wear resistance, high corrosive, high strength, and not favourable for conventional machining processes such as grinding, milling, and turning. Wire EDM machining of these materials has several applications, such as in the making of extrusion dies, the petrochemical industry, mould making, fuel injector nozzles, complex parts used in automotive, marine, and space aircraft engines, and turbine blades [8]–[13]. In comparison to electrically conductive machining of the workpiece, some wire EDM processes have also been reported on non-conductive materials and insulating ceramics [14-17].

3 Developments of Wire EDM Process The first metal cutting using electricity was developed by Tilghman in 1889. Boris and Natalia Lazarenko in 1943 developed spark machining to develop the machining of electro-conductive materials. Electrical discharge machines have been successfully used to remove material from workpieces for almost twenty years. Some significant developments used for wire EDM are mentioned in Table 1. These developments were highlighted per the information obtained from the relevant literature [18-36].

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Table 1. Major development of wire EDM process No 1

Year 1889

1943

1960

1967

1969

6 7 8 9 10 11

1970 1970 1980 1981 1985 1994

12 13 14

1997 2005 2006

15 16

2010 2011

17 18 19

2012 2013 2015

2015

2018

2019

Research evolution Benjamin Chew Tilghman got a patent for innovation in metal cutting using electricity “Cutting metal by electricity”. Boris and Natalia Lazarenko introduced the machining of electro-conductive materials. David H. and his team invented an optical line system that led to the development of CNC equipment. The primary wire EDM machine was introduced by a firm in the former Soviet Union and exhibited at a machine exhibition in Quebec, Canada. Agie (A Swiss Company) promoted a wire EDM machine at the European Machine Tool Exhibition in Paris. Unblended copper wires were utilised as wire electrodes in the 1970s. Brass wire was also used in the late 1970s in place of copper wire. Introduction of zinc coating on the copper wire. Introduction of zinc coating on brass wire. Wire electrical discharge grinding process suggested by Masuzawa. Rajurkar et al. examine the control system for spark frequency to calculate the height of the workpiece. Wire EDM with ultrasonic aide investigated and examined. Li et al. studied and investigated the high-speed wire EDM (WEDM-HS) process. Zhao and colleagues investigated the tangential feed for the wire electrical discharge grinding process. Sheu discussed and studied the twin wire electrical discharge grinding process. Muttamara et al. discussed micro EDM machining to reduce discharge energy induced by conductive layers for insulating ceramics. Cryogenically treated wire electrodes are used. Wire electrical discharge milling studied by Gotoh et al. Zhang studied and investigated the wire EDM process on nanocomposite ceramic materials with poly-vinyl alcohol in distilled water. Procedure for online recording of pulses in wire EDM at a middle speed based on machine learning and digital image processing. Highly precise wire control system to enhance the surface quality of the workpiece and geometric accuracy. Li et al. investigated the active supply of wire-electrical discharge grinding (AS-WEDG) to reduce wire variation and to enhance the aspect ratio of the microelectrodes.

4 Process Optimization and Modelling of Wire EDM Process Nowadays, comprehensive research has been done on process optimization and modelling in the wire EDM process. A lot of researchers have studied and focused on improving and optimizing the wire EDM technique for advanced materials like superalloys, composites with ceramic reinforcement, and carbides. The major categories of superalloys and carbides are nickel chromium-based alloys, titanium alloys, nickel alloys, nickel-titanium alloys, boron carbide, and tungsten carbide, etc. The different designs of experiments and optimization processes have been used to construct the mathematical model for performance in the wire EDM process. The Taguchi method, response surface analysis, and regression analysis are exhaustively used by many researchers, but nowadays, modern approaches like artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy method, particle swarm technique, grey wolf optimizer, teaching-learning based optimization, etc. have been used in developing models. Table 2. Important findings and effects of various input parameters on wire EDM for different materials No 1

Author Kapgate et al.(2013)

Material and Methods The sequential classical method is used to experiment to cut Al/SiC10% metal matrix composite material into different shapes and optimize the parameters using the Mini-max principle and linear programming to enhance the output performance.

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Finding of study The combined effect of parameters using dimensionless π term suggests and improves the productivity and helps to maintain the removal rate and roughness by changing one parameter [37].

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No 2

Author Marigoudar and Sadashivappa (2013)

Material and Methods The Zn-Al alloy reinforced with silicon carbide (SiC) in powder form is used to analyze the performance of wire EDM. The Liquid metallurgy technique was used to prepare the ZA43/SiCp composite. Analysis of variance gives the most significant parameter for the selected response. Machining of NIMONIC 80A (nickel-chromium alloy) material was conducted on wire EDM for MRR, surface integrity, and wire wear ratio using Taguchi OA design of experiments and optimized through multi-response technique grey relational analysis (GRA). Machined surface microstructure analysed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM).

Goswami and Kumar (2014)

Kumar et al. (2015)

Experimental evaluation on wire EDM of Monel400 (nickel alloy) material with four parameters examined and optimized two responses: machining rate and surface roughness.

Caydas and Ay (2016)

Goyal (2017)

Unune and Mali (2017)

Gołabczak et al. (2019)

Mostafapoura nd Vahedi (2019)

Machining influence of input factor on wire EDM of Inconel 718 superalloy evaluated and examined for surface roughness, cutting width, and recast layer characteristics. The Analysis of variance technique (ANOVA) and regression analysis are used for model development to describe the effect of parameters on the quality of wire EDM. Cryogenic treated zinc coated and normal zinccoated wire electrodes were used to assess the influence of variable factors on wire EDM of Inconel 625 superalloys. L18 orthogonal design of experiments is used for designing experiments. Surface characteristics of machined surfaces are analyzed using a scanning electron microscope. Micro wire EDM has evolved into a micromachining process to fabricate micro features. But, the poor surface quality and low machining rate limit the wide application of this process. The performance of microwire EDM of Inconel 718 using a box Behnken design of experiment was analysed statistically for the output responses. The assessment concerned the effect of wire EDM and vibratory abrasive machining on the geometrical structure of hard materials like Titanium 5553 b alloy, Inconel-617, Hastelloy-X, and AZ-31 Magnesium alloy. Optimal electric parameters are used in the machining of hard materials for final cubic and cylindrical samples and polished using circular vibratory finishing technology. The effect on MRR, kerf thickness, and SR of the input parameters of the wire EDM during machining of magnesium alloy evaluated and examined the machinability characteristics and behavior of materials with high thermal conductivity during machining using the response surface methodology. The changes in microstructure and surface layer were evaluated using SEM and EDXS analysis.

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Finding of study The increase in silicon carbide content in the composite metal matrix causes a significant decrease in the removal rate and higher surface roughness. The favorable effect on MRR is defined by the current and pulse duration time [38]. At the 95% significance level, pulse duration and pulse interval are found to be the most favorable parameters for material removal rate. Excessive discharge energy causes large craters and can be seen in the microstructure. A high discharge energy level causes the surface recast layer to be thicker as compared with a low discharge energy level [39].

The impact of variable factors on material removal is shown by a response surface graph. The quadratic model is adapted and found suitable for material removal using variance analysis, while the two interaction factors (2FI) model is recommended for surface roughness [40]. Current and pulse duration are found to significantly affect the surface roughness by using ANOVA. The results drawn from the model show strong robustness with respect to the coefficients Ra, RLT, and Kw [41].

The cryogenically treated tool improves the rate of material removal and demonstrates good surface integrity than standard tool electrodes. The rate of material removal is also substantially improved by pulse duration and pulse interval. Increased pulse duration and current decrease the surface quality and increase the roughness [42]. It has been observed that capacitance has a major effect on the rate of material removal and cutting width. The low-frequency vibration enhances machinability characteristics due to increased flushing conditions and decreased workpiece and wire electrode adhesion [43]. The results suggested a reduction in the structural morphology of these alloys when gradually increased in voltage and current intensity. Micro craters and weld penetration are also seen in the morphology of the surface structure caused by spark discharges. It also suggested that Vibro abrasive technology is suitable for polishing very hard materials because of its complicated geometry [44]. The results promise that MRR in the machining of magnesium alloy is significantly higher than in hard materials. Minimum microcracks and non-damaged surfaces observed using a scanning electron microscope show the capability of producing a good machined surface using Wire EDM [45].

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No 10

Author Mouralova et al. (2020)

Material and Methods A Comprehensive design of experiments is used to monitor the different input factors in the machining of NIMONIC C 263 superalloy to enhance efficiency. Optimal results were drawn for the machining accuracy and surface quality and analysed the lamella using a transmission electron microscope (TEM).

Finding of study Machining of superalloy accomplishes both by reducing machining time, creating financial savings, and improving machined surface quality. The morphology analysis verifies the absence of any cracks or burnt cavities in machined samples. TEM lamella analysis showed in detail the composition at the atomic level [46].

Dzionk and Siemiątkows ki (2020)

The study evaluates the effect of input parameters, including dielectric pressure, pulse duration, on the machining of Inconel 617 using wire EDM. Box– Behnken design scheme used to design the experiments for dimensional accuracy, surface characteristics, and MRR.

The MRR is significantly influenced by the pulse duration during the machining. The debris and residue particles are effectively removed by flushing them. There is no change in peak and valleys due to the possible setting of input parameters, but some changes in waviness structure are perceived when compared with the longitudinal and transverse directions of the cutting direction [47].

Using single objective optimization or multi-objective optimization approaches, the combination of input factor values impacts process performance. As the wire EDM is governed by various input variables like pulse duration, discharge current, voltage, and wire-speed, etc., small variations in these input factors affect the process performance of machining. MRR is a significant output response that affects the productivity of any process. The increase in MRR caused the economic benefit of using wire EDM for any organization [48]. Mechanical properties like fatigue strength are improved in the manufacturing of titanium alloys for space and aircraft applications by using wire electrical discharge machining [49]. Table 2 shows some research findings on the design of input parameters, approaches to assessing the influence of these input factors, and modelling of the wire EDM process.

5 Conclusion This review emphasizes elementary concepts, developments, challenges, and opportunities in the wire EDM technique. A brief study emphasizes the interest of researchers in the investigation, evaluation, application, modelling, and optimization of the wire EDM process. The general objective of many researchers is to improve the performance and proficiency of wire EDM for different advanced materials and also materials characterized by low electrical conductivity. Some investigations to enhance the components of the wire EDM system. Many researchers have focused on characterizing the input variables in the machining process. The dimensional accuracy, MRR, surface integrity, and process productivity have all been addressed as output responses. The mathematical tools were developed to optimize and study the effectiveness and impact of input parameters on output performance. The review reveals a considerable rise in published articles in the last few years that address topics connected to the wire EDM process. In the years ahead, this tendency is anticipated to continue. The desirability of exploring the possibility of using new variations in wire EDM and machining of some advanced and hard materials that can be worked out in the future is expected to be significant in the coming days. Further attempts at optimization are also predicted with the consideration of Industry 4.0 stage requirements.

6 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7 References [1]

L. Slatineanu, O. Dodun, M. Coteata, G. Nagî, and I. B. Bancescu, “Wire Electrical Discharge Machining—A Review,” Machines, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 1-28, 2020, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/machines8040069

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U. H. Vala and M. R. Sama, “A review on different effects on flushing of dielectric fluid in WEDM,” Int. J. Adv. Res. Sci. Eng., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 37-44, 2017.

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A. Okada, Y. Uno, S. Onoda, and S. Habib, “Computational fluid dynamics analysis of working fluid flow and debris movement in wire EDMed kerf,” CIRP Ann. - Manuf. Technol., vol. 58, pp. 209-212, 2009.

[4]

C. Zhang, “Effect of machining fluid on the process performance of wire electrical discharge machining of nanocomposite ceramic,” 2015, DOI: 10.1051/C

[5]

A. Okada, Y. Uno, M. Nakazawa, and T. Yamauchi, “Evaluations of spark distribution and wire vibration in wire EDM by high-speed observation,” CIRP Ann. - Manuf. Technol., vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 231-234, 2010, DOI: 10.1016/j.cirp.2010.03.073

[6]

Z. Yueqin, L. Zhidong, X. Lixia, and W. Wei, “Interelectrode discharge mechanism in high-speed wire electrical discharge machining,” Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol., vol. 84, no. 9-12, pp. 2637-2647, 2016,

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S. Kumar, B Mitra, and S. Dhanabalan, “The state of Art: Revolutionary 5-Axis CNC Wire EDM & its recent developments Small Scale Plant for Essential Oil Extraction/Distillation View project WEDM Machining performance determination for superalloys View project The state of Art: Revolutionary 5-Axis CNC Wire EDM & its recent developments,” 2018.

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K. Kanlayasiri and S. Boonmung, “Effects of wire-EDM machining variables on surface roughness of newly developed DC 53 die steel: Design of experiments and regression model,” J. Mater. Process. Technol., vol. 192-193, pp. 459-464, Oct. 2007, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmatprotec.2007.04.085

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J. P. Davim, Machining: Fundamentals and recent advances. Springer London, 2008.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Macro Environmental Factors in the Development of Public-Private Partnership in Russia Evgeny A. Kuzmin1*, Marina V. Vinogradova2, Elza R. Zinatullina3 Department of Regional Economic Policy and Economic Security, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA. 2 Faculty of Economics, Russian State Social University, RUSSIA. 3 Department of Enterprise Economics, Ural State University of Economics, RUSSIA. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +7-3433715716, kuzmin.ea@uiec.ru) 1

Paper ID: 12A10R Volume 12 Issue 10

Abstract

The transformation of sustainable economic development approaches has created the institution of public-private partnership (PPP) as a Received 26 July 2021 Received in revised form 10 form of interaction for the construction and operation of infrastructure August 2021 facilities. The success of such initiatives creates a supportive environment Accepted 12 August 11, that meets social needs. In this paper, the authors analyze the dynamics and 2021 structure of the distribution of public-private partnership projects in Russia Available online 14 August in 2007-2020 to search for significant determinants in the development of 2021 this institution. The obtained results of the static and correlation-regression Keywords: analysis made it possible to establish the presence of a noticeable direct Public-private relationship between the level of investment in public-private partnership partnership (PPP); projects and the size of the gross regional product. A negative impact on the Macroeconomic development of public-private partnership projects is exerted by an increase conditions; Regional differentiation; PPP in the tax burden on business, a high cost of loans, and an increase in infrastructure; PPP inflation, which entails an increase in the capital and operating project costs. investment impact; PPP At the same time, a high level of government spending on the gross domestic project. product has a positive impact on the implementation of public-private partnership projects. Thus, the activation of the public-private partnership institution in this context should be aimed at improving the macro-state of the economy. Disciplinary: Macro Economics, State and Regional Administration & Policy, Institutional Economics. ©2021 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

Cite This Article: Kuzmin, E. A., Vinogradova, M. V., and Zinatullina, E. Z. (2021). Macro Environmental Factors in the Development of Public-Private Partnership in Russia. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10R, 1-12. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.207

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1 Introduction Public-private partnership (PPP) is a modern mechanism for attracting private companies to invest/finance the construction, operation, and management of infrastructure facilities. The importance of financing through PPP is due to the high interest of public institutions in creating a favorable environment. A characteristic feature of PPPs, clearly defined in contracts, is the distribution of investment, risk, and responsibility between the parties. The ability to distribute risks between project parties contributes to the success of PPP projects (Fedorova et al., 2013; Lebedeva, & Morozov, 2017; Shvedkova, 2015). When preparing and implementing a PPP project, risks associated with all factors should be taken into account (Krivenok, & Vivchar, 2018). Under the complicating external economic situation, the issues of the development of internal infrastructure as the basis of competitiveness are of particular relevance for Russia. PPP in Russia is a relatively new instrument. At the same time, the practice of using such mechanisms for the implementation of projects in creating and updating socially significant infrastructure is becoming more common (Khubuluri, & Bagrova, 2019). Despite the obvious benefits of using PPP for economic development, the share of investments in infrastructure under the concluded concession agreements in Russia does not exceed 2% of GDP per year. This is significantly lower than in the UK - 6.6% of GDP, in Australia and New Zealand - 6.9% of GDP, in Canada - 8.1% of GDP (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2020). Arguably, infrastructure management remains a barrier to achieving sustainable development goals (Cheng et al., 2021; Derrible, 2018; Di Liddo et al., 2019). The overwhelming majority of Russian regions already use the mechanism of concession agreements for the creation or reconstruction of infrastructure facilities. However, at the same time, only 10 regions (12%) have concluded more than 100 agreements (including municipal concessions). Over the past five years, there has been a significant reduction in implemented PPP projects in Russia, so in 2020, compared to 2016, the number of implemented PPP projects decreased by 9 times, the volume of budget investments in PPP projects decreased by 44%. In part, the sharp decline in indicators in 2020 can be explained by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the overall trend of previous years is negative. This indicates the undisclosed potential of the PPP mechanism in Russia (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2020). In this regard, there is an interest in identifying the reasons and factors that have a negative impact on the development of PPP projects in Russia. Therefore, the study aims to find determinants that impede the development of PPP in Russia. For this, the tasks were set: to conduct a statistical analysis of the dynamics of implemented PPP projects in 2007-2020 by the federal districts of Russia and sectors of the economy; to identify the statistical relationship between investments in PPP projects and investments in fixed assets, as well as between the gross regional products; to assess the correlation between the influence of various factors on the level of investment in PPP projects.

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2 Literature Review Active development of the practice of implementing projects using PPP mechanisms in recent years has attracted an increasing number of researchers. Yescombe (2015) offers a unique comprehensive description of the processes, participants, and established practices of publicprivate partnership, and speaks in detail about the main financial aspects of the implementation of PPP projects. The tasks that are solved using PPP can be summarized as follows (Kozhurina, 2019): PPPs allow the authorities to focus on the main functional area while the solution of infrastructure issues is delegated to private companies; PPPs contribute to improving the management of state assets (a “life cycle” approach is used in the form of long-term contracts), etc. The Russian specificity in the light of world practice is considered in Goloborodko et al. (2017), where the forms, types, and legal regimes of PPPs are specified and their formation features are analyzed. An important aspect for Russia and many developing economies is the problem of abuse of power. Goloborodko et al. assess the legal, economic, and managerial risks in the implementation of PPP projects. Many researchers note a lack of trust between business and government (Pankratov, 2010). This occurs since companies in Russia are not interested in long-term cooperation. A low time horizon of their operation (Kuzmin, 2018) does not create incentives for long-term investments and innovations (Chernova et al., 2019). This could be neutralized, according to Pankratov, by the acceptance of the role of a guarantor by the state. A similar opinion was expressed by Firsova (2011). Another internal PPP driver specific to Russia is the need to create “growth points” through PPP for regional development (Alpatov et al., 2010; Litau, 2018). The debate about what factors underlie the development of PPP is generally homogeneous. Kazaryan (2017), among the factors influencing the development of PPP, notes institutional (reflecting the formation of the regulatory framework governing the development of PPP), competence (reflecting the presence of the necessary managerial competencies among public and private sector employees), socio-economic (reflecting the investment attractiveness of regions for the inflow of investments). In addition to these factors, the presence of risks that affect the implementation of PPPs, as well as forms of project financing, are also highlighted (Sidorkin, & Tatarkin, 2010; Sokolov, & Maslova, 2013). Risks affecting the implementation of PPP projects include the risks of planning them, financial risks, including interest rates and inflation, risks of operating the created infrastructure, as well as risks related to the demand for the facilities of the created infrastructure. Hence, one can conclude that the implementation of PPP projects is significantly influenced by financial determinants, including the change in the interest rate on loans, the level of the tax burden, the inflation rate, the level of state budget expenditures to GDP (Han et al., 2020; Wang, & Alvi, 2011). The investment component of PPP projects has an impact on regional economic development. Stable correlations are observed for investment in fixed assets per capita and GRP per capita (Barbysheva, 2020).

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Methodological guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of conventional investment projects are quite complete and well-built (Birman, & Schmidt, 1997; Vilensky et al., 2002). However, PPP projects require a special approach. The multifaceted and complex hierarchical nature of such projects leads to a broad interpretation of the effectiveness of projects, and, consequently, the choice of factors that have a significant impact. Scholars distinguish various components as part of the integrated effectiveness of PPP projects. For example, Prokopovich (2013) proposes to calculate the integral indicator of the effectiveness of PPP projects as the average of public efficiency and that of the balance of interests. At the same time, the efficiency of the balance of interests is understood as the average value of budgetary, economic, and social efficiency. Novikova and Chukhlomin (2010) are guided by the division of efficiency into financial and socio-economic. It is noted that in modern conditions, to assess projects, it is necessary to simultaneously evaluate both these types of efficiency, in two versions - with and without government support. Andreyeva (2013) offers to consider the comprehensive effectiveness of the project from the standpoint of dividing it by stakeholders concerned. The review made it possible to concretize the pool of determinants that can enhance project activities in PPP. These include the size of the investment, the level of government spending, and the factors of the macroenvironment (cost of borrowing, inflation). It is these parameters that are taken into account when formulating and subsequently testing assumptions in connection with the factors of PPP development.

3 Method This study finds determinants that impede the development of public-private partnerships in Russia. This work puts forward several assumptions on the relationship of factors and their impact on the development of PPP based on the prevailing view upon a review of references. 1) The development of PPP projects in a region has a significant impact on investments in fixed assets, as well as on economic growth, which is reflected in an increase in the GRP indicator; 2) The high cost of loans, an increase in inflation, which leads to an increase in the cost of capital and operating costs of projects, have a negative impact on the development of PPP projects. At the same time, a high level of government spending in GDP is likely to have a positive impact on the implementation of PPP projects. To test the assumptions, standard statistical methods were used, including multiple linear regression, which involves establishing a relationship between a group of independent variables. To assess the relationship between various factors and the volume of investments in PPP projects, the correlation coefficient was calculated (Ishkhanyan, & Karpenko, 2016): n

rxy =

∑ ( x − x )( y i =1

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n ⋅ σ xσ y

− y) (1),

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where n is the size of the studied population (sample size); x , y are average values of parameters;

σ x 2 , σ y 2 are dispersions; σ x , σ y are SD of characteristics. Correlation indices were assessed using the Chaddock scale (Ishkhanyan, & Karpenko, 2016). The multiple correlation coefficient can be found through a matrix of paired correlation coefficients:

= R

1−

∆r ∆ r11

(2),

where ∆r is a determinant of the matrix of paired correlation coefficients; ∆r11 is a determinant of the inter-factor correlation matrix. The information base of the study was data on PPP projects in Russia for 2007-2020, posted on the website of the Rosinfra platform (Rosinfra, 2021). The data structure allows for analysis by region and industry.

4 Result and Discussion The active development of PPP in Russia was observed in the period from 2010 to 2016. Subsequently, the number of projects has steadily decreased - from a peak of 1,270 projects in 2016

Number of PPP Projects

to 116 in 2020, more than 10 times. The dynamics of PPP projects are shown in Figure 1. 1400 1270

1200 1000 800

750 623

600

510

400 200

324

280

182

97 81 64 30 12 12 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2014

116 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Figure 1: Dynamics of the number of PPP projects implemented in Russia in 2007-2020. Source: Compiled from (Rosinfra, 2021). Budget investments in Russia for infrastructure development in 2019 amounted to about 2 trillion rubles. Concerning GDP, the volume of budget investments increased by only 0.1 percentage points to 1.8% at the end of 2019. In 2020, the volume of budget investments directly invested in PPP projects amounted to 327.6 billion rubles. In total for the period of 2007-2018, the volume of budget investments in PPP projects increased from 532 billion rubles up to 851.1 billion rubles, or 60.0%. The volume of investments per PPP project in 2007 amounted to 44.3 billion rubles, and in 2020 it decreased to 2.8 billion rubles. Consequently, PPP projects have become less ambitious over the past 13 years. Low indicators are largely due to the absence of a long-term PPP development plan and clear conditions for the implementation of particular PPP projects. The distribution of completed PPP projects across federal districts in Russia is uneven. During 2007-2020, the largest number of implemented PPP projects was observed in the Southern

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Federal District (3723, or 51%), the Central Federal District (748, or 10%), and the Volga Federal District (954, or 13%). Table 1 presents the dynamics of the implementation of PPP projects. Table 1: Dynamics of the implementation of PPP projects in the federal districts of Russia in 2007-2020 Federal district SiFD FFD NWFD SFD CFD NCFD UFD VFD 2007 3 0 1 7 0 0 0 3 2008 1 0 0 10 3 0 3 3 2009 1 4 4 20 4 0 4 3 2010 5 4 2 57 7 0 3 26 2011 16 5 4 63 10 0 12 10 2012 11 7 4 75 15 2 2 26 2013 20 14 9 143 42 1 16 20 2014 40 41 15 292 25 16 16 112 2015 114 81 33 576 137 3 56 142 2016 164 192 59 1175 322 17 103 261 2017 98 122 30 654 99 14 89 190 2018 77 36 68 403 39 9 58 99 2019 31 20 20 179 26 5 17 46 2020 3 8 9 69 19 3 7 13 Note: SiFD - Siberian Federal District; FFD - Far East Federal District; NWFD - North-West Federal District; SFD - Southern Federal District; CFD - Central Federal District; NCFD - North Caucasian Federal District; UFD - Ural Federal District; VFD - Volga Federal District. (Source: Rosinfra, 2021). Year

Similar trends can be traced in the distribution of investments for PPP projects in the regions. The largest share of investments falls on the South Federal District (149.16 billion rubles, or 52%). The Volga Federal District ranks second (30.92 billion rubles, or 11%). The third place is occupied by the Ural (26.39 billion rubles, or 9%) and the Central Federal Districts (25.41 billion rubles, or 9%). The dynamics of the share of investments in PPP projects in total investments in fixed assets by federal districts in 2007-2020 are reflected in Figure 2. It follows from those data that this share is low, in the South Federal District it reached 2.2% in 2016, in other federal districts it did not exceed 0.5%.

2.50 SiFD 2.00

FFD NWFD

1.50 %

SFD CFD

1.00

NCFD 0.50

UFD VFD

0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 2: Dynamics of the share of investments in PPP projects in total investments in fixed assets by federal districts of Russia in 2007-2020. (Rosinfra, 2021)

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The calculated values of the strength of the relationship between investments in PPP projects and the volume of investments in fixed assets are reflected in Table 2. Table 2: Correlation-regression dependence between the investments in projects and the volume of investments in fixed assets Federal district SiFD FFD NWFD SFD CFD NCFD UFD VFD

Model/Relationship y = 193.21x+908.98 y = 85.04x+926.82 y = 404.65x+1132 y = 24.052x+877.59 y = 402.39x+2597.4 y = 131.29x+366.52 y = 26.34x+1697.7 y = 207.01x+1555.3

Correlation coefficient R2 0.5327 0.1589 0.6692 0.4613 0.2561 0.3318 0.6217 0.5455

Relationship strength direct noticeable direct weak direct noticeable direct moderate direct weak direct moderate direct noticeable direct noticeable

It can be seen that the size of investments in PPP projects does not have a significant effect on the volume of investments in fixed assets in most federal districts. Table 3 shows the relationship between investments in PPP projects and GRP. It can be concluded that in most federal districts of Russia the correlation coefficient exceeds 0.5; therefore, the relationship is direct and noticeable. Table 3: Correlation-regression dependence between investments in PPP projects and GRP Federal district SiFD FFD NWFD SFD CFD NCFD UFD VFD

Model/Relationship y = 0.0005x-1.2198 y = 0.0006x-0.8778 y = 0.0003x-0.9161 y = 0.0046x-6.8555 y = 0.0001x-0.7629 y = 0.0007x-0.5573 y = 0.0005x-2.3937 y = 0.0004x-1.3916

Correlation coefficient R2 R2 = 0.7244 R2 = 0.3145 R2 = 0.6457 R2 = 0.6834 R2 = 0.3444 R2 = 0.4351 R2 = 0.5546 R2 = 0.4671

Relationship strength direct high direct moderate direct noticeable direct noticeable direct moderate direct moderate direct noticeable direct moderate

Thus, when checking the first assumption, it has been found that at present, public-private investments occupy a small share in the total investments of regions; however, there is a positive relationship between attracted investments in PPP projects and the size of GRP. In the sectoral context, PPP projects are also not equally attractive to investors. In 2020, 7 PPP projects were implemented in the field of transport, while in the field of agricultural infrastructure they amounted to 9.9 times more. The dynamics of the number of PPP projects by sectors are presented in Table 4. In the number of PPP projects by sectors, the largest share in 2007-2020 was taken by the projects aimed at modernizing agricultural infrastructure (4008, or 47%), as well as the projects in the field of housing and communal infrastructure (3723, or 44%). The smallest shares of PPP projects were observed in the field of industrial infrastructure, defense, and security. Next, let us consider what factors influence the size of investments attracted in PPP projects. It is known that both the state budget and private individuals, including debt financing, are used to finance PPP projects. The rise in the cost of loans reduces the opportunity to participate in

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the implementation of investments, including PPP projects. An additional factor is the level of the tax burden, which in Russia amounted to 33.47% in 2019 (Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, 2021a, 2021b). This significantly exceeds the level of some OECD countries. The inflation rate also has a significant impact on the implementation of PPP projects, as it increases the cost of capital and operating costs, and, ultimately, increases the final cost of creating infrastructure facilities. These factors include the level of government spending. The budget financing of PPP projects in Russia is about 22% (Rosinfra, 2021). Table 4: Dynamics of the number of PPP projects by sectors of the economy in Russia in 2007-2020 (Rosinfra, 2021). Sector Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Social sphere 1 6 5 14 19 12 32 44 79 54 89 69 45 24

Transport

Agriculture

0 0 1 3 4 2 1 4 10 7 11 10 11 7

10 20 57 75 63 292 143 292 576 1175 654 403 179 69

Defense and security 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

House building

Redevelopment

ICT

Manufacturing

7 10 20 57 63 75 143 292 576 1175 654 403 179 69

0 0 1 0 1 2 4 7 10 16 26 18 14 7

0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 7 2 4 4 2 2

0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 5 11 18 22 4 1

Now, coming to correlation analysis of the influence of factors on the level of investments in PPP projects (Y): tax burden (X1); interest rate on loans to non-financial organizations (X2); inflation (X3); share of budget expenditures in GDP (X4). The matrix of paired correlation coefficients R is presented in Table 5. Table 5: Matrix of paired correlation coefficients Y X1 X2 X3 X4

Y 1 -0.318 -0.746 -0.519 -0.586

1 0.203 0.368 -0.284

1 0.593 0.580

1 0.287

Thus, the correlation coefficient between the tax burden and the size of investments in PPP projects is -0.318 (moderate inverse relationship), between the size of investments in PPP projects and the interest rate on loans to non-financial organizations, is -0.746 (high inverse relationship), between the investments amount in PPP projects and the inflation rate, is -0.519 (noticeable inverse relationship), between the size of investments in PPP projects and the share of budget expenditures in GDP -0.586 (noticeable inverse relationship). Based on the pairwise correlation

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coefficients, it was found that all the selected factors had an impact on attracting investments in PPP projects, which confirms the author’s assumption. The constructed system of linear equations, when solved by the Gauss method, allows one to obtain the following values: β1 = -0.357, β2 = -0.4, β3 = -0.021, β4 = -0.449. According to the maximum coefficient β3 = -0.021, it can be concluded that the inflation factor has the greatest influence on the size of investments in PPP. Thus, it was found that interest rates on loans for businesses did not have the greatest impact on the amount of the attracted investments. As a result of the calculations, the multiple regression equation was obtained, Y = 3491.8388 − 44.0246X1 − 34.6048X2 − 1.5613X3 − 54.3634X4

(3).

The multiple correlation coefficient R = 0.8284. The relationship between the Y sign and Xi factors is strong. Let us check the overall significance of the equation using the F-statistic (rightsided check). The tabular value for the degrees of freedom k1 = 4 and k2 = 8, Fkp(4;8) = 3.84. The estimated F is 4.374. Since the actual value is F > Fkp, the coefficient of determination is statistically significant and the regression equation is statistically reliable (i.e., the bi coefficients are jointly significant). The parameters of the model can be interpreted as follows: an increase in the tax burden by 1% leads to a decrease in the size of investments in PPP by an average of 44.025 billion rubles; an increase in the interest rate on loans to legal entities by 1% leads to a decrease in the size of investments in PPP by an average of 34.605 billion rubles; an increase in the inflation rate by 1% leads to a decrease in the size of investments in PPP by an average of 1.561 billion rubles; an increase in the share of budget expenditures in GDP by 1% leads to a decrease in the size of investments in PPP by an average of 54.363 billion rubles.

5 Conclusion The number of implemented PPP projects in Russia has been steadily decreasing since 2016, from a peak of 1,270 projects to 116 in 2020. Over the past 13 years, the projects have become smaller in scale; the volume of investments per one PPP project in 2007 was 44.3 billion rubles, and in 2020, it decreased to 2.8 billion rubles. Low indicators are largely due to the absence of a longterm PPP development plan and clear conditions for the implementation of particular PPP projects. The distribution of PPP projects by sectors and regions is uneven. Similar trends can be traced in the distribution of investments. The study found that the size of investments in PPP projects did not have a significant impact on the volume of total investments in fixed assets. However, there is a positive relationship between the attracted investments in PPP projects and the size of the GRP. The author made sure that all the selected factors (the tax burden, the interest rate on loans to non-financial organizations, the inflation rate, the share of budget expenditures in GDP) have a significant impact on attracting investments in PPP projects. Therefore, the activation of the PPP institution in this context should be aimed at improving the macro-state of the economy. The creation of conditions for the functioning of an efficient infrastructure investment market will

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allow attracting additional financing for PPP projects in sufficient volumes to overcome the accumulated lag of infrastructure from the needs of the economy and society.

6 Availability of Data And Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7 Acknowledgement The study was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), project No. 19010-00994.

8 References Alpatov, A.A., Pushkin, A.V., & Dzhaparidze, R.M. (2010). Public-Private Partnership: Implementation Mechanisms. Moscow: Alpina Publisher. Andreeva, E.S. (2013). Evaluation of the effectiveness of public-private partnership projects: a methodological approach. Bulletin of Kazan Technological University, 16(12), 300-303. Barbysheva, T.M. (2020). Development of public-private partnerships in the regional dimension. Authorities and Governance in the East of Russia, 4(93), 133-145. DOI: 10.22394/1818-4049-2020-93-4-133-145 Birman, G., & Schmidt, S. (1997). Economic Analysis of Investment Projects. Moscow: UNITI. Cheng, Z., Wang, H., Xiong, W. et al. (2021). Public-private partnership as a driver of sustainable development: toward a conceptual framework of sustainability-oriented PPP. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23, 1043-1063. DOI: 10.1007/s10668-019-00576-1 Chernova, V.Y., Starostin, V.S., Degtereva, E.A., & Andronova, V.I. (2019). Study of sector-specific innovation efforts: the case from the Russian economy. Entrepreneurship & Sustainability Issues, 7(1), 540-552. DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2019.7.1(38) Derrible, S. (2018). An approach to designing sustainable urban infrastructure. MRS Energy & Sustainability, 5, 13. DOI: 10.1557/mre.2018.14 Di Liddo, G., Rubino, A., & Somma, E. (2019). Determinants of PPP in infrastructure investments in MENA countries: a focus on energy. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 46, 523-580. DOI: 10.1007/s40812-019-00129-7 Fedorova, E.A., Dovzhenko, S.E., & Gurina, V.A. (2013). An analysis of factors affecting the efficiency of public-private partnership development in Russia. Financial Analytics: Problems and Solution, 13, 3951. Firsova, A.A. (2011). Opportunities of using PPP mechanisms in the processes of investing in innovative activity. RISC: Resources, Information, Supply, Competition, 2, 563-566. Goloborodko, A.Yu., Kozhenko, Ya.V., & Pashkovsky, P.V. (2017). Public Private Partnership. Ufa: Omega Science. Han, X., Su, J., & Thia, J.P. (2020). Impact of infrastructure investment on developed and developing economies. Economic Change and Restructuring. DOI: 10.1007/s10644-020-09287-4 Ishkhanyan, M.V., & Karpenko, N.V. (2016). Econometrics. Part 1. Pair regression. Moscow: MGUPS

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(MIIT). Kazaryan, M.A. (2017). Ways to improve PPP efficiency management in world and domestic practice. Economic Sciences, 1, 68-74. Khubuluri, E.I., & Bagrova, N.A. (2019). Theoretical aspects of public-private partnership and its implementation in the Russian Federation. Science and Education: Business and Economy; Entrepreneurship; Law and Governance, 1(104), 123-127. Kozhurina, O.A. (2019). Goals and objectives of public-private partnership. Rostov Scientific Journal, 2, 167174. Krivenok, K.P., & Vivchar, T.A. (2018). Risks in PPP projects: achieving rational distribution. Moscow University Bulletin, Series 21: Governance (Government and Society), 4, 79-101. Kuzmin, E., Zinatullina, E., & Mezentseva, E. (2021). Regional distribution of public-private partnership projects: case of Russia. E3S Web Conf., 301, 01005. DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202130101005 Kuzmin, E.A. (2018). Data on empirically estimated corporate survival rate in Russia. Data in Brief, 16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.011 Lebedeva, A.V., & Morozov, O.A. (2017). Strategic risks in the framework of public-private partnership (PPP). Fundamental Research, 8-1, 185-190. Litau, E. (2018). Entrepreneurship and economic growth: A look from the perspective of cognitive economics. In ICEME 2018: Proceedings of the 2018 9th International Conference on E-business, Management and Economics (pp. 143-147). DOI: 10.1145/3271972.3271978 Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. (2020). Information and Analytical Review on the Development of Public-Private Partnerships in the Russian Federation. Moscow. Retrieved March 4, 2021, from https://clck.ru/MNiks Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. (2021a). Basic Directions of the Budgetary, Tax and CustomsTariff Policy for 2021 and for the Planning Period of 2022 and 2023. Approved by the Ministry of Finance of Russia. Retrieved May 2021 https://minfin.gov.ru Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. (2021b). Tax Burden and Tax Conditions for Doing Business in the Russian Economy and Foreign Countries. Retrieved May 2021 https://clck.ru/VwNLj Novikova, T.S., & Chukhlomin, N.V. (2010) Evaluation of the effectiveness of public-private partnership in the creation of special economic zones. World of Economics and Management, 10(4), 180-192. Pankratov, A.A. (2010). Public-Private Partnership in Modern Practice: Basic Theoretical and Practical Problems. Moscow: Ankil. Prokopovich, S.Yu. (2013). Public-private partnership in the system of attracting investments as a mechanism for implementing the strategy of socio-economic development: the aspect of efficiency and risks. Modern Problems of Science and Education, 3, 23-30. Rosinfra. (2021). Market for PPP Projects in Russia. Retrieved May 2021 https://rosinfra.ru/digest/market Shvedkova, T.Yu. (2015). Features of the distribution of risks between parties in the implementation of investment and construction projects of toll roads on the basis of public-private partnership. Modern Problems of Science and Education, 2, 427. Sidorova, E.N., & Tatarkin, D.A. (2010). Public-private partnership in a crisis: problems, risks, opportunities. Economy of the Region, 2(22), 95-103. DOI: 10.17059/2010-2-9

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Sokolov, M.Yu., & Maslova, S.V. (2013). Risk management in public-private partnership projects. Bulletin of St. Petersburg University. Management, 4, 100-124. Vilensky, P.L., Livshits, V.N., & Smolyak, S.L. (2002). Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Investment Projects. Theory and Practice. Moscow: Delo. Wang, E.C., & Alvi, E. (2011). Relative efficiency of government spending and its determinants: Evidence from East Asian countries. Eurasian Economic Review, 1, 3-28. DOI: 10.14208/BF03353822 Yescombe, E.R. (2015). Public-Private Partnership: Principles of Policy and Finance. Moscow: Alpina Publisher.

Evgeny A. Kuzmin is a Researcher of Department of Regional Economic Policy and Economic Security of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation). His research interests include Risk, Uncertainty, Economic Crises, Sustainability, Public-Private Partnerships, Economic and Food Security, Investments, Business Planning, Industrialization, Industrial Policy, Industry Markets, Modeling, Economic Growth and Development, Entrepreneurship, Business Activity. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8805-135X Dr.Marina V. Vinogradova.is Professor of the Faculty of Economics of the Russian State Social University (Moscow, Russian Federation). She received a Dr.Sci. from the Russian State University of Tourism and Service. His research interests encompass Economic Development of Macro- and Microsystems, Socio-cultural Problems, Forecasting, Planning and Monitoring the Development of Socio-economic Systems, Regional Clusters, Public-Private Partnership, Economic and Information Security. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5051-9404 Elza R. Zinatullina is a Post-graduate student of the Ural State University of Economics (Ekaterinburg, Russia). She is also Head of the Financial Department of Greif Russia, LLC (Perm, Russia). She holds a MEcon. His research interests: Digital Transformation of Industrial Enterprises; Impact of the Industry 4.0 on Changes in Business Processes of Enterprises; Monitoring the Effectiveness of Digitalization Implementation. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0202-1054

Note: The origin of this article was reviewed, accepted, and presented at the VI International Scientific Conference “Territorial Inequality: a Problem or Development Driver” (REC-2021), held at Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation, during 23-25 July, 2021.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

A Systematic Review of Business Models for Sustainable Innovation Awwad Saad Alshammari1, Nimer Qayum Mir1* College of Business Administration, University of Ha’il, SAUDI ARABIA. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +966 509662844, Email: n.mir@uoh.edu.sa) 1

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10S

Frugal and reverse innovations are relatively new yet highly discussed topics in academic and business management circles. These two types Received 12 May 2021 Received in revised form 19 of innovation present a shift in the mindset of global business and economy. July 2021 The paper seeks to provide a literature review on the topic of frugal and Accepted 26 July 2021 reverse innovation and the connection between them. Fifty-two articles were Available online 10 August chosen for the final analysis - far too many for a journal article - but the most 2021 important fourteen articles were identified after the analysis and are Keywords: examined here. Through primary content analysis, five major areas have Frugal innovation; been identified for further evaluation. These topics include the approaches to Reverse innovation; Diffusion; Sustainability; definitions and understanding of the nature of frugal and reverse innovation, analysis of frameworks for innovations implementation, the issue of Innovation flow. diffusion, and the connection of frugal and reverse innovation to sustainability. This systematic review of frugal and reverse innovation highlights existing issues and gaps and suggests directions for future research. Volume 12 Issue 10

Cite This Article: Alshammari, A. S., Mir, N. Q. (2021). A Systematic Review of Business Models for Sustainable Innovation. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10S, 1-9. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.208

1 Introduction For the development and growth of organisations and firms innovation has always been important. As Crossan and Apaydin (2010) mention in their work that innovation is an important dimension with the help of which competitive advantage can be achieved. The same idea is supported by Klein and Knight (2005). Frugal and reverse innovation has recently been subject to attention in academic research (Lou, 2016). Innovation is becoming inalienable in the context of economic development. The growing attention to both types of innovation may be explained by the fact that these two types of innovation are considered crucial for modern organisations to retain their advantage in the

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changing global market. Rapidly developing economies like China have led to intense competition between organizations vying for customers from these markets (Zeschky et al., 2014). Many enterprises faced significant challenges when adapting to the new markets. Since it would be very difficult to sell products in these markets at the same price level as in Western economies companies had to find such solutions as reverse and frugal innovation. The main idea behind frugal innovation is the pursuit of quality innovations using scarce resources. Reverse innovation on the other hand focuses on the possibility of innovations developed in developing and underdeveloped economies entering mature markets (Govindarajan and Ramamurti 2011). Sustainability must not be neglected when it comes to economic development. Thus, both frugal and reverse innovations are often looked at from the sustainability perspective aiming at analysing what economic, social, and environmental issues arise when it comes to these types of innovation. According to Winterhalter and Gassmann (2014), frugal and reverse innovations are not the only existing terms that are employed to describe resource-constrained types of innovation. Definitions of various existing types of resource-constrained innovation will be provided followed by a discussion of the primary differences between them.

1.1 Frugal Innovation Hossain (2017) states that frugal innovation is important for SMEs, NGOs, corporations, and governmental organisations and that it aims at providing opportunities to consumers who belong to the low-income segment. Hossain et al. (2016) defined frugal innovation as a resource-scarce solution which despite constraints is designed and implemented, in a way that the final output is a lot cheaper than the offerings of competitors and is suitable to satisfy the needs of otherwise unserved customers. Frugal innovation originates from resource scarcity according to Sharma and Iyer (2012). The crux behind it is converting disadvantages into a competitive advantage.

1.2 Reverse Innovation According to Xu and Xu (2016), when it comes to innovations, developed countries are the first to innovate which is then adapted first by the developing countries. In reverse innovation, innovations first take place in the developing countries and are then adapted in the developed countries (Govindarajan and Ramamurti 2011). Reverse innovation has been defined by Hossain, (2016) as a resource-constrained solution introduced first in emerging markets and then transferred to developed economies. Frugal innovations are meant specifically for low-income markets. Reverse innovation enters advanced markets and may arise from any other type of innovation. A brief overview of the different types of innovation are described; Jugaad innovation a term defined by Pahalad and Mashelkar (2010) is the design of efficient innovation which are low cost in nature for the Indian market,

Bottom of the pyramid innovations are innovations that intend to satisfy the needs of

poor populations who otherwise would remain unserved (Prahalad, 2004), Cost innovations aim to produce expensive products at a lower cost (Zeng and Williamson, 2007), Lean innovation is an

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innovation which aims at eliminating processes that are non-value-adding processes to attain goals with the minimum possible result (Sehested and Sonnenberg, 2010). Grassroot innovation according to Hossain (2016) deals with organizations and activists creating bottom-up solutions aimed at development and consumption which are both sustainable in nature. There is still a lack of understanding of the way frugal and reverse innovation interact (Agarwal et al., 2019). In the following systematic literature review, we aim at filling that gap by analysing the scientific literature on the topic.

2 Methodology This work identifies the nature of frugal and reverse innovation, their impacts and their interaction with each other. Tranfield et al. (2009) mention that a systematic review is the most appropriate approach since it enables us to discover, choose, assess and consolidate the existing literature in a replicable and meticulous manner. First, it should be systematic meaning that the review is to be organised on the basis of the chosen methods (Briner and Denyer 2012). Second, it should be clearly stated and transparent. Finally, a systematic review is to be reproducible and synthesized (Briner and Denyer 2012). Following McWilliams et al. (2005), our systematic review is based on peer-reviewed literature only. For this purpose, the search for relevant materials has been conducted using mainly the EBSCOhost database of scholarly articles. To ensure that all provided information is up to date and relevant, we have limited the date range of accepted publications. Thus, we have chosen articles that are no more than fifteen years old.

2.1 Data Collection The data collection technique is based on the concept of systematic literature review as suggested by Tranfield (2003). The first stage of data collection included the creation of a keywords list for the primary search. Two primary keywords have been identified, namely ‘reverse innovation ’ and ‘frugal innovation ’. Additionally, the following keywords have been utilised in the literature search: ‘frugal innovation in emerging markets, ‘reverse innovation in emerging markets, ‘frugal and reverse innovation’, ‘frugal innovation and sustainability, and ‘reverse innovation and sustainability. The second stage of the literature search comprised the primary literature search via EBSCOhost. Two main keywords have been used at this stage. As a result of the primary research for keywords ‘frugal innovation ’ and ‘reverse innovation’ 3,706 results and 5,678 results have been found in EBSCOhost respectively. Titles and abstracts screening was the third stage of our systematic literature review. Titles and abstracts were screened based on inclusion criteria. The inclusion criteria include 1) the article has been published less than ten years ago 2) in its title and/or abstract, one of several of identified keywords is mentioned, 3) the article is written in the English language and 4) the content of abstracts have been evaluated from the perspective of its usefulness for the aim of this review. As a result of this stage completion, 326 articles have been chosen for further review. The final stage of the systematic literature review was the thorough analysis of the full content of chosen articles.

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2.2 Data Analysis The data analysis presupposed reading of a full text of the article and identifying whether it should be a part of the literature review. In this context, fifty-two articles have been chosen for systematic review. We have used both inductive and deductive methods of content analysis of articles. Also, we have followed Nijmeijer et al. (2014) recommendation to analyse design peculiarities of chosen publications first.

We have synthesized all data by comparing definitions, approaches to

description, framework, and other issues in all articles. In such a way, we aimed at ensuring that we gather all necessary data for narrative synthesis that would assist us in exploring the relationships between data as suggested by Popay et al. (2016).

3 Results Several articles were identified after analysis as being importantly related to frugal and reverse innovation and based on them the results were generated. The similarity between types of innovations is that they aim at offering value using limited resources. The main goal of these innovations is that the main focus is on the target market rather than developing the product at a low cost even though that is ultimately achieved as well.

3.1 The Nature of Frugal and Reverse Innovation 3.1.1 Frugal Innovation Halme et al. (2012) mention in their work that it is important to realize that targeting emerging markets require a different strategy as compared to developed markets. And this is the main reason why frugal innovations are important. Simula et al. (2015) in their work state that these innovations help solve problems of a daily nature as well as provide critical solutions for enterprises.

3.1.2 Reverse Innovation Four important parameters exist in reverse innovation that helps in a better understanding of the phenomenon (Zedwitz et al., 2015). First, the home country is not the primary market for which the product is produced. Second, products meant for emerging markets become better than other products elsewhere. Third, product development is not utilised in developed countries only. Fourth, organizations devise new products in addition to developing existing products and hence cater to both developed and developing markets.

3.2 Implementing Frugal and Reverse Innovation in Organisations 3.2.1 Frugal Innovation A lot of Western organisations because of frugal innovation development have started to depend on emerging markets according to Altman and Engberg (2016). According to Colledani et al. (2016) since these firms may not have enough knowledge about the local market they may want to rethink their business processes. However, this is a challenging process that may be realised via various approaches (Pisoni et al., 2018). Core product modification according to Lim et al. (2013) is

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the first approach in emerging markets for the implementation of frugal innovation. It is suggested to use this approach when issues like poor product design or the failure of the offering to satisfy customer needs arise. The presence of partners who are local in nature is imperative for understanding required modifications according to Corsi, Di Minin, and Piccaluga 2014; they also recommend another approach to the implementation of frugal innovation which is value engineering. Value engineering is preferred in scenarios when Western firms are confronted with issues in adapting to the local business environment and model.

3.2.2 Reverse Innovation According to Winter and Govindarajan (2015), reverse innovation starts from the successful frugal innovation first. According to Govindrajan (2012), the success of reverse innovation is challenging as it involves discarding old structures, existing product development methods, and the existing sales force and developing new ones from zero. Zhu (2017) conducted a study devoted to the identification of factors that should be evaluated. The results have demonstrated that the degree of needed adaptation and the risk of cannibalisation should be evaluated by firms. An evaluation may show that financial investments would be necessary but that would lead to a higher cost and eventually a loss of competitive advantage according to Govindarajan et al. (2012).

3.3 Diffusion of Frugal and Reverse Innovation Even though many studies exist and provide important insights with regards to the diffusion of frugal and reverse innovation the topic has not been researched in detail yet. Peng and Vlas (2017) were amongst the first to shed light on three important aspects of the diffusion of innovation. First that diffusion of innovation is considered a new concept, second that it takes time in spreading from one domain to another and third that its adoption may be realized on three levels, either at the level of an individual, at the level of a particular group or the level of higher authority like the government. Diffusion is a process in which an innovation spreads in the market among members of the market when it is communicated through certain channels over time (Ray and Ray (2010). Hossain et al. (2016) have conducted research aimed at understanding the patterns of diffusion of frugal innovation which according to them are of four types. Local diffusion is when innovation is accepted in one unit, proximity diffusion is when innovation is spread to neighboring units with similar environmental conditions, distance diffusion is when innovation is spread to distant units with similar environmental conditions and global diffusion is when a product that has been created and meant for a developing country is adopted by developed countries. Many factors according to Mannan et al. (2017) determine the success of the adoption of innovation in the new country. Harris et al. (2016) mention that the success of the diffusion of reverse innovation in the developed country is many times determined by the biases related to the country of origin of the product, Africa being an example, they term this as a paradox of reverse innovation.

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3.4 Sustainability vis-a-vis Frugal and Reverse Innovation Sustainability is a crucial concept for every business these days. As businesses are becoming involved in the implementation of new innovations, the question of sustainability of these innovations arises. Sustainable innovations according to Rosca et al. (2017) are inventions that provide important progress related to concerns of a social, economic, and ecological nature. Three aspects should be taken into consideration when it comes to sustainability. These are economic, environmental, and social aspects of sustainability.

Rosca et al. (2017) have evaluateก the

connection between all three aspects of sustainability and frugal and reverse innovation. They have employed multiple case designs and studied fifty-nine cases to be able to draw particular conclusions and have concluded that sustainability is not essential to frugal and reverse products and services.

3.4.1 The Economic Aspect of Sustainability Bas (2016) states that it is the primary target of frugal and reverse innovation to increase the purchasing power of individuals with various levels of income. The connection between frugal innovation has also been investigated by Levänen et al. (2015) and they found out that frugal innovation saved the money of customers in two of four cases. The same result has been found in studying the relation between frugal innovation and the creation of new employment opportunities and enterprises (Levänen et al. 2015; Akhtar et al., 2019).

3.4.2 The Ecological Aspect of Sustainability Bas (2016) mentions that frugal and reverse innovations demonstrate particular green properties considering their low technological complexity, these properties include easy and quick repair in case of breakdown and possible recycling of end-of-life components. Rosca et al. (2017) state that innovations that are frugal and reverse in nature demonstrate the decrease in the use of production material energy and water consumption.

3.4.3 Social Aspects of Sustainability In Khan (2016), frugal innovation techniques have demonstrated their efficiency for society in numerous cases. Hyvärinen et al. (2016) give an example of the case of development water filters that could be bought at a lower price, but they give people access to clean and safe water at the same time. Similar examples of the impact of frugal and reverse innovations on social sustainability may be found in studies of Tran and Ravaud (2016), Pansera and Sarkar (2016) and Rowthorn et al. (2016).

4. Conclusion The systematic review of the literature provided us with the opportunity to gather and evaluate the existing literature. We have managed to identify the most debatable topics when it comes to frugal and reverse innovation and has evaluated a substantial amount of literature to understand the nature of both concepts. Finally, we have succeeded in finding the connection between frugal and reverse innovation.

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Future research needs to examine the possible frameworks of frugal and reverse innovations implementation. Considering the importance of sustainability, frugal and reverse innovation should be studied from this perspective as well. To highlight the most important findings of our systematic literature review, frugal and reverse innovation are relatively new and there is still a lack of unity of thoughts on their proper definition. All reverse innovations are by nature frugal but not all frugal innovations are reverse. Diffusion of frugal and reverse innovation as a topic still requires additional research. Finally, we have managed to demonstrate that there is a connection between frugal and reverse innovation and sustainability and that they have a presumably positive impact on the environment.

4 Availability of Data and Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

5. References Agarwal, N., Brem, A., and Dwivedi, S. (2019). Frugal and reverse innovation for harnessing the business potential of emerging markets - The case of a Danish MNC. International Journal of Innovation Management, 24(1), np. doi:10.1142/S136391962050097 Altman, P. and Engberg, R. (2016). Frugal Innovation and Knowledge Transferability. Research-Technology Management, 59, 48-55. Briner, D. and Denyer, D. (2012). Systematic review and evidence synthesis as a practice and scholarship tool. In: D. M. Rousseau, ed., Handbook of Evidence-Based Management: Companies, Classrooms and Research. New York: Oxford University Press, 112-129. Colledani, M., Silipo, L., Yemane, A., Lanza, G., Bürgin, J., Hochdörffer, J., Georgoulias, K., Mourtzis, D., Bitte, F., Bernard, A. and Belkadi, F. (2016). Technology-based product services for supporting frugal innovation. Procedia CIRP, 47, 126-131. Corsi, S., Di Minin, A., & Piccaluga, A. (2014). Reverse innovation at spheres: a case study in China. Research Technology Management, 57(4), 28-34. doi:10.5437/08956308X 5704215 Crossan, M. and Apaydin, M. (2010). A Multi-Dimensional Framework of Organizational Innovation: A Systematic Review of the Literature. Journal of Management Studies, 47, 1154-1191. Govindarajan, V. (2012). A Reverse-Innovation Playbook. Harvard Business Review, 4, 120-124. Govindarajan, V. and Ramamurti, R. (2011). Reverse innovation, emerging markets, and global strategy. Global Strategy Journal, 1, 191-205. Govindarajan, V., Trimble, C., & Nooyi, I. K. (2012). Reverse Innovation: create far from home, win everywhere. New York: Harvard Business School Press. Halme, M., Linderman, S. and Linna, P. (2012). Innovation for Inclusive Business: Intrapreneurial Bricolage in Multinational Corporations. Journal of Management Studies, 49, 743-784. Harris, M., Weisberger, E., Silver, D., Dadwal, V. and Macinko, J. (2016). That’s not how the learning works - the paradox of Reverse Innovation: a qualitative study. Globalization and Health, 12, 1-8. Hossain, M. (2017). Mapping the Frugal Innovation Phenomenon. Technology in Society, October, DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2017.09.006. Hossain, M., Simula, H. and Halme, M. (2016). Can frugal go global? Diffusion patterns of frugal innovations. Technology in Society, 46, 132-139. Hyvärinen, A., Keskinen, M. and Varis, O. (2016). Potential and Pitfalls of Frugal Innovation in the Water Sector: Insights from Tanzania to Global Value Chains. Sustainability, 8, 1-16.

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Khan, R. (2016). How Frugal Innovation Promotes Social Sustainability. Sustainability, 8, 1-29. Klein, K. and Knight, A. (2005). Innovation Implementation. American Psychological Society, 14, 243-246.

Lim, C., Han, S. and Ito, H. (2013). Capability building through innovation for unserved lower end mega markets. Technovation, 33, 391-404. Lou, Y. (2016). Toward a reverse adaptation view in cross-cultural management. Cross Cultural and Strategic Management. Mannan, S., Nordin, S., Rafik-Galea, S. and Rizal, A. (2017). The ironies of new innovation and the sunset industry: Diffusion and adoption. Journal of Rural Studies, 55, 316-322. McWilliams, A., Siegel, D. and Van Fleet, D. D. (2005). Scholarly journals as producers of knowledge: theory and empirical evidence based on data envelopment analysis. Organizational Research Methods, 8, 185-201. Nijmeijer, K. J., Fabbricotti, I. N. and Huijsman, R. (2014). Making franchising work: a framework based on a systematic review. International Journal of Management Reviews, 16, 62-83. Pansera, M. and Sarkar, S. (2016), Crafting Sustainable Development Solutions: Frugal Innovations of Grassroots Entrepreneurs. Sustainability, 8, 51-76. Peng, M. and Vlas, C. (2017). Diffusion of a Twentieth-Century Innovation. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 16, 172-174. Pisoni, A., Michelini, L., and Martignoni, G. (2018). Frugal approach to innovation: State of the art and future perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 171(1), 107-126. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.248 Popay, J., Roberts, H., Sowden, A., Pettigrew, M., Arai, L., Rodgers, M., Britten, N. and Duffy, S. (2006). Guidance on the Conduct of Narrative Synthesis in Systematic Reviews. A Product from the ESRC Methods Programme (refH33250019). Version 1. Lancaster: NSSR. Prahalad, C. K. (2004). The fortune at the bottom of the pyramid: Eradicating poverty through profits. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.

Ray, P. and Ray, S. (2010). Resource-constrained innovation for emerging economies: the case of the Indian telecommunications industry. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 57, 144-156. Rosca, E., Arnold, M., & Bendul, J. C. (2017). Business models for sustainable innovation - an empirical analysis of frugal products and services. Journal of Cleaner Production, 162(Special), S133-S145. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.050 Rowthorn, V., Plum, A. and Zervos, J. (2016). Legal and Regulatory Barriers to Reverse Innovation. Annals of Global Health, 82, pp. 991-1000. Sehested, C. and Sonnenberg, H. (2010). Lean Innovation: A Fast Path from Knowledge to Value. New York: Springer. Sharma, A. and Iyer, G. (2012). Resource-constrained product development: Implications for green marketing and green supply chains. Industrial Marketing Management, 41, 599-608. Simula, H., Hossain, M., & Halme, M. (2015). Frugal and reverse innovations - Quo Vadis? Current Science,109(9), 1567-1572. Tran, V. and Ravaud, P. (2016). Frugal innovation in medicine for low resource settings. BMC Medicine, 14, 1-3. Tranfield, D., Denver, D. and Smart, P. (2003). Towards a methodology for developing evidence-informed management knowledge by means of systematic review. British Journal of Management, 14, 207-222. Winter, A. and Govindarajan, V. (2015). Engineering Reverse Innovations. Harvard Business Review, 7, 81-89. Xu, N. and Xu, Y. (2016). Research on the key success factors of reverse innovation of the latecomer engineering and technical services enterprises. Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, 7, 58-76.

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Zeng, M and Williamson, P. J. (2007). Dragons at your door: How Chinese cost innovation is disrupting the rules of global competition. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press. Zeschky, M., Winterhalter, S. and Gassman, O. (2014). From Cost to Frugal and Reverse Innovation: Mapping the Field and Implication for Global Competitiveness. Research-Technology Management, 57, 20-27. Zhu, F., Zou, S., & Xu, H. (2017). Launching reverse-innovated product from emerging markets to MNC’s home market: A theoretical framework for MNC’s decisions. International Business Review, 26(1), 156-163. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2016.06.003 Dr. Awwad Saad Alshammari is an Assistant Professor at the College of Business Administration, University of Ha’il, KSA. He got his Master’s from the University of Toledo, US and PhD degree from the University of Portsmouth, UK. His research interests are Information Systems and Management.

Dr. Nimer Qayum Mir is an Assistant Professor at the College of Business Administration, University of Ha’il, KSA. He got his Master’s and PhD degrees in Business Administration from the University of Kashmir. He is also PMP and CBAP certified. His research focuses on Marketing, Strategy and Information Systems.

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

Domestic Market Stability through Concentration Assessment: The Case of Russian Grain Exports Inna V. Andronova1, Veronika Yu. Chernova1*, Nataliya V. Dyuzheva1, Andrei A. Karavdin1 Department of International Economic Relations, People’s Friendships University of Russia, Moscow, RUSSIA. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +7-4954335029, Email: veronica.urievna@mail.ru) 1

Paper ID: 12A10T Volume 12 Issue 10

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of concentration and analysis of the competitive environment in the grain export market in the Received 14 April 2021 Received in revised form 26 context of strengthening regulatory measures and an increase in the share of July 2021 the public sector. The authors consider the case of Russia as one of the Accepted 04 August 2021 leaders in food exports in the global market. To assess the concentration, a Available online 10 August stage-by-stage approach was adopted with the calculation of the Herfindahl2021 Hirschman indices, concentration coefficient, and Linda index. The Keywords: consistency of the obtained data on various parameters makes it reasonable Grain market; Trade to use the selected indices in the analysis of concentration in the agroconcentration; industrial complex. The results show that the concentration of sellers in the Herfindahl-Hirschman grain export market is low. It was confirmed that the introduction of a grain index; Concentration export quota and the distribution of its volume among market members index; Linda indices; against the background of an increase in the share of the public sector in the Agro exports; Government regulation; industry did not cause an increase in concentration and strengthening of the Russian wheat export. competitive positions of leading firms. Three groups of exporting companies were identified and an increase in the share of exporting companies partially owned by the state was recorded, which led to an aggravation of the competition. The growth of the public sector in the grain export market can be considered a manifestation of a purposeful policy to squeeze foreign traders out of the Russian market. Trends also indicate that the competitive position of individual exporters may strengthen in the near future. Disciplinary: Agricultural Economic, Marketing International Agricultural Trade & Policy.

(Market

behavior),

Cite This Article: Andronova, I. V., Chernova, V. Yu., Dyuzheva, N. V., and Karavdin, A. A. (2021). Domestic Market Stability through Concentration Assessment: The Case of Russian Grain Exports. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10T, 1-10. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.209

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1 Introduction The food industry and agriculture can be characterised by a high market concentration around the world (HLPE, 2017). Only a few companies dominate each link in the food chain. For example, in most sectors of the US agricultural and food industry, the four largest firms control 40– 45% of the market, and in more specialised segments up to 85%, which is considered by many experts as a threat to the competitiveness of the industry (Murphy et al., 2012; Uzun and Shagaida, 2019). However, a high degree of concentration and market power saturation in the hands of a small number of players is not a new phenomenon for the economy. In the grain trades, several large companies have dominated the global market for over a century (Murphy et al., 2012). Currently, the increased concentration and enhanced market power from the largest agricultural product sellers have become a global topic (Sexton and Xia, 2018; Laurent, 2017). The market power of big businesses began to go far beyond economic relations. Many foods and agribusiness corporations have a strong presence in government institutions where they can influence policy for their own benefit (Murphy, 2006; Murphy et al., 2012; Moon, 2019). The restoration by Russia of the status of a world agrarian power and the growth of Russian agricultural exports have led to an aggravation of the competition between global exporters and Russian grain traders. Obviously, owning by global traders (Murphy et al., 2012) of the export infrastructure in Russia allows these companies to export any amount of food, which can lead to higher prices in the domestic market and pose a threat to food security (Dvinsky, 2021). At the same time, domestic food inflation forced the Russian government in 2020 to apply tough measures to regulate grain exports. Those measures, against the backdrop of an increase in the state’s share in the export market, sparked a heated debate about their impact on competition and the position of other market members. Therefore, the focus of the research was on assessing the level of concentration in the grain export market in Russia, as well as determining the nature of the influence of the growth in the share of the public sector and the tightening of state regulation of exports on the competitive situation in the industry.

2 Literature Review A firm with market power can influence not only the price but also the rules governing the market in which it operates. The growing concentration of leading grain export companies in the World Bank’s vision may have negative consequences for at least three groups of other stakeholders in the chain, including farmers, consumers, and the world community as a whole (World Bank, 2009). Rigid export regulation measures complicate the activities of grain traders and force companies to leave the market or reduce their presence in it, which leads to a cyclical increase in concentration and a decrease in competition among exporters (Sinitsyna, 2021). One of the main criteria for increasing or decreasing competition in the market is the degree of concentration of the industry market. A wide range of instruments is used in the research literature to assess concentration levels. With all the variety of concentration measurement indices, in practice, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index and the concentration index are most often

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used (Bukvic and Zakharov, 2013). A disadvantage of the concentration index is its insensitivity to the presence of a gap between the shares of the largest firms and changes in market power among the leading firms while maintaining their total share at the same level; it does not reflect the competitive situation outside the group of largest firms. Nevertheless, in a situation of limited information, the concentration ratio (CR) index turns out to be indispensable. However, unlike the concentration index, the Linda index (Linda, 1976) discovers differences at the very core of the market (Bukvić, 2020). By using the Linda Index, one can determine how many firms (and which ones) occupy a dominant position in the market. It is possible to measure the level of concentration with other indices, in particular, the entropy index, only if there is reliable data on each firm in the industry, which is an impossible condition for most real markets. (Sunde and Charumbira, 2010).

3 Method During the research, the authors used a series of indices, such as concentration, HerfindahlHirschman, and Linda, as the most representative for assessing market concentration. The competition in the grain export market was assessed in two stages. At the first stage, the concentration level of the entire industry was measured with the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. At the second stage, the concentration of only the largest firms in the industry was examined. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index is calculated with the firm size relative to market size. For agricultural entities, such indicators can be the volume of gross and marketable products, the area of the land bank and the area of crops, the number of machinery units, the number of livestock and poultry, and the number of employees (Zubareva and Oznobikhina, 2019). For export operators, the volume of product exports can be this indicator. It is assumed that the greater the share of a firm in the industry, the more potential it has for demonstrating market power. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index is calculated as the sum of the squares of the shares of all firms operating in the market (Herfindahl, 1959; Hirschman, 1964) n

HHI = ∑Si2 ,

(1),

i =1

where Si – the share of output by the i-th firm of agricultural products in the total output of this type of agricultural products by all firms in the market; n – the number of firms producing this kind of agricultural product. As the input data for calculating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, due to the lack of publicly available data on grain exports by individual small exporters, the data of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia regarding the volume of the tariff quota, the distribution of which among the foreign economic activity members was made according to the export volumes of each member in 2020, were used (RMA, 2021a). CR shows the market share controlled by the largest firms (usually 4, 5, 8, 10 top firms): k

CR k = ∑Si ,

(2),

i =1

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where Si – the share of the i-th largest firm in the industry in %; k – the number of firms producing this type of agricultural products. The CR Index is measured in relative proportions or percentages. The higher its value, the stronger the market power of the largest firms, the degree of market concentration, and the weaker competition. A market can be considered competitive if the share of the top four firms in the industry does not exceed 40% (Murphy, 2006), and that of three firms in the industry is less than 45%. With a concentration index in the range of 45–70%, the market is considered moderately concentrated, with concentration index values over 70%, it is highly concentrated (Kotsofana, & Stazhkova, 2011). The Linda index is calculated in stages. In general terms, the formula for calculating the Linda index is as follows: = ILm

m −1 1  m − i   Si  , ∑  × m ( m − 1) i =1  i   Sm − Si 

(3),

where ILm – the Linda index for a sample of m largest firms, m – the number of firms in the sample, i – the serial number of the company in the sample, CRi – the market share of the i-th firm, CR m – the sum of the market shares of firms in the sample. The minimum point on the Linda curve shows the border of the oligopolistic core. If one of the firms dominates the market, the index will first rise, since the oligopolistic core consists of one largest firm. If the index decreases for the entire population of large firms, this means that there are no dominant firms in the market (Linda, 1976). To calculate the concentration indices and Linda indices, some data from the files of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia were used with empirical additions from the files of the AGI (2021) for 2018–2020.

4 Result and Discussion Russia is one of the world’s leading food exporters. Since 2018, cereals have been ranked second in Russian exports after fuel and energy resources and metallurgical products (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 2020). Although food exports cannot fully compensate for the losses of the Russian economy from the collapse in oil prices, food exports are now a key driver of Russia’s foreign trade growth (DAR, 2020). The key exporters of Russian agricultural products in 2020 were China ($352 million), Turkey ($280 million), the EU ($252 million), Egypt ($164 million), South Korea ($91 million), and Ukraine ($67 million). Grain is exported to 132 countries of the world, the main buyers (by a significant margin) being Egypt, Turkey, Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, Sudan, and others. At the end of 2020, the agricultural product exports amounted to $1.836 billion, of which grain was exported of $559 million, where 89% was wheat (RMA, 2021b) (Figure 1). In Russia, 562 companies are engaged in the export of grain crops. The composition of the leaders by the grain exporter changes annually (RMA, 2021a; Pavensky, 2018, 2019, 2020).

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50,000 45,000

43 988.8

40,000 35,000

38 553.5 35 030.5

33 026.0

31 850.9

30,000 25,000

25 326.8

22 136.0 21 234.2

20,000

16 025.1

15,000

13 796.3

10,000 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Figure 1: Dynamics of Russian wheat exports in 2011–2020, thousand tons Source: (FCS, 2021). At the first stage of the research, the concentration level of the entire industry with the Herfindahl-Hirschman index was measured. The results show that the concentration of sellers in the grain export market is low (U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, 2010), the index value as of 2020 was 662.86 p. At the second stage, the concentration of only the largest firms in the industry was determined, whose shares in the total volume of exports are presented in Table 1. Table 1: Shares of the ten largest exporters in the volume of grain exports in 2018–2021, % Market member 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total

Year 2018 12.57 9.46 6.00 4.82 4.32 4.32 3.66 3.38 3.19 2.72 54.43

2019 16.07 8.51 8.03 4.96 3.78 3.07 2.72 2.60 2.55 2.50 54.80

2020 12.05 8.33 6.64 6.55 5.86 4.73 3.29 3.06 2.48 2.36 55.36

2021 15.38 12.14 10.05 7.05 5.10 4.73 4.40 4.07 3.66 3.11 69.70

Source: (RMA, 2021a; Pavensky, 2018, 2019, 2020) The values of the calculated concentration indices for the grain market show that the grain traders’ market is low-concentrated, the value of the index for the three largest players did not exceed 45% (Bukvic & Zakharov, 2013). Linda indices are designed to discover an oligopolistic structure in the market. In the case of a competitive market, the values of the index are constantly decreasing, and for all m the condition ILm+1 < ILm is satisfied. Violation of this pattern indicates that there is an oligopoly in this market. In this case, none of the options obviously indicates the existence of an oligopoly (Table 2).

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Table 2: Concentration indices (CR) and Linda index (IL) for the grain export market in Russia for 20182021. Market member 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2018 CR2018 IL2018 22.03 0.66 28.03 0.34 32.85 0.19 37.17 0.14 41.48 0.10 45.14 0.08 48.52 0.06 51.71 0.05 54.43 0.04

2019 CR2019 IL2019 24.58 0.94 32.61 0.28 37.57 0.20 41.35 0.16 44.43 0.12 47.14 0.10 49.74 0.08 52.30 0.07 54.80 0.05

2020 CR2020 IL2020 20.38 0.72 27.03 0.31 33.58 0.18 39.44 0.12 44.17 0.08 47.45 0.07 50.52 0.06 53.00 0.05 55.36 0.04

2021 (within the quota) CR2021 IL2021 27.51 0.63 37.57 0.32 44.62 0.18 49.72 0.12 54.45 0.09 58.85 0.08 62.93 0.06 66.59 0.05 69.70 0.04

A graphical representation of the Linda indices and concentration indices is presented in Fig. 2. In contrast to the concentration index CR, which is a monotonically increasing value with the inclusion of each following company (CR1 < CR2 < ... < CRn) and thus shapes a convex curve, the Linda indices graphically represent a broken curve that can increase, have a horizontal appearance or decrease. The decreasing view of the Linda curves clearly demonstrates the absence of an oligopolistic core in the grain export market. 80

1.2

70 1.0 60 0.8 50 0.6 IL

CR 40 30

0.4 20 0.2 10 0

0.0 1

Number of companies in the market CR2018

CR2019

CR2020

CR2021

IL2018

IL2019

IL2020

IL2021

Figure 2: The concentration coefficient and the Linda index for the grain export market in 2018–2021. However, the results obtained cannot indicate the absence of an oligopolistic nature of competition. The index value IL = 0.2 indicates the presence of an oligopolistic region with satisfactory competition conditions, and an excess of the index IL ≥ 0.5 indicates the existence of excessive "oligopolistic density" but without a high degree of dominance by any firm. However, this situation can be an obstacle to competition.

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In the considered case, excessive oligopolistic density can be observed when two exporting firms are included in the sample, with the Linda index reaching its maximum value IL = 0.94 in 2019 when the export volume of the leading company (16.07%) almost doubled the export volume of the second member in export activities (8.51%). An oligopolistic region with satisfactory competition conditions can be recorded when the fourth firm is included in the sample in 2018, 2020, and 2021, and only the fifth firm in 2019. Thus, although the distribution of the export quota, when the ten largest exporters accounted for about 70% of the quota volume, did not cause a significant increase in the concentration of the industry, nor it led to an increase in the competitive positions of individual leading firms. Moreover, an increase in market concentration and competition within the oligopolistic region could be recorded in 2019 and decreased by 2021. According to the World Bank, the level of concentration on the Russian grain trade market is comparable to the level of concentration on the EU grain market. At the same time, almost onethird of the total volume of exports from Russia currently accounting for by foreign companies, which increased their share from 6% in the mid-2000s up to 60% in the 2010s. The increased presence of overseas companies in the Russian grain market has raised concerns about the risk of outstripping supply in domestic markets and higher prices, as well as the fact that foreign companies may use their market power and drive down the prices of agricultural producers. The widespread opinion that foreign companies put their commercial interests above the interests of Russia’s food security, according to the World Bank experts (World Bank, 2009), cannot be refuted, although it has not been convincingly confirmed. There are currently three groups of the largest companies in the grain market: –

international grain traders, whose total market share is gradually decreasing (from 22.6% in 2016/2017 to 16.5% in 2019/2020);

–

Russian diversified agricultural holding companies, whose share is also decreasing (from 35% in 2016/2017 to 25.7% in 2019/2020);

–

Russian grain traders are partially owned by the state, the share of which is rapidly increasing (from 5.18% in 2016/2017 to 15.1% in 2019/2020).

At the end of 2020, in the top ten grain exporters, the shares of overseas grain traders and grain traders partially government-owned were almost equal (RMA, 2021a). The growth of the public sector in the grain export market is regarded by some researchers as squeezing foreign traders out of the Russian market. According to the grain trading market members and experts, the appearance on the market of a partially government-owned bank (VTB Bank) had a significant impact on the grain market. In 2019, VTB Bank consolidated the largest grain transhipment capacities in deep-water ports. The acquisition by the bank of the largest grain transhipment capacities in deep-water ports allows, due to significant volumes, to transport cargo to far abroad countries at lower costs, which gives a significant competitive advantage in the market.

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5 Conclusion The results show that the concentration of sellers in the grain export market is low. The decreasing shape of the Linda curves for the considered period of assessment clearly demonstrates the absence of an oligopolistic core in the grain export market. The study confirmed that the introduction of a grain export quota and the distribution of its volume among market members against the background of an increase in the share of the public sector in the industry did not cause an increase in the concentration of the industry, nor an increase in the competitive position of leading firms. With a structural analysis of the market, it can be stated that currently there are three groups of the largest members, such as international grain traders, Russian diversified agricultural holding companies, and Russian grain traders publicly owned, the share of which is rapidly increasing. The growth of the public sector in the grain export market can be considered a manifestation of a purposeful policy to squeeze overseas traders out of the Russian market. Trends also indicate that the competitive position of individual exporters may strengthen in the near future.

6 Availability of Data And Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7 Acknowledgement This study has been supported by the RUDN University Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

8 References AGI. (2021). Agro Data. Agroinvestor Magazine. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://www.agroinvestor.ru Bukvić, R. (2020). Concentration and competition in Serbian banking sector in the period 2016-2018. Ekonomika, 66, 17-35. DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2002017B Bukvic, R., & Zakharov, V. (2013). The use of index concentration Linda and discriminant analysis in research of market structures. In 7th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference Eurobrand, TQM centar, Zrenjanin, 194-213. Retrieved Jan 2021, from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2735564 DAR. (2020). Don’t Feed with Bread: Russian Wheat Has Become More Expensive than Oil. Daily Agricultural Review. Retrieved Jan 2021, http://agroobzor.ru/article/a-1176.html Dvinsky, K. (2021). Safety Comes First: There is no Room for Foreigners in our Grain Market. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://tsargrad.tv/articles/bezopasnost-prevyshe-vsego-inostrancam-net-mesta-na-nashemzernovom-rynke_320343 FCS. (2021). Russian wheat exports in 2011-2020. Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation Retrieved Jan 2021, https://customs.gov.ru/statistic/ Herfindahl, O. (1959). Copper Costs and Prices: 1870-1957. Baltimore: The John Hopkins Press. Hirschman, A.O. (1964). The paternity of an index. The American Economic Review, 54(5), 761-762. HLPE. (2017). Nutrition and Food Systems. Report of the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee for World Food Security. Rome.

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Kotsofana, T.V., & Stazhkova, P.S. (2011). Comparative analysis of the application of concentration indicators by the example of the banking sector of the Russian Federation. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 4, 30-40. Laurent, P. (2017). Concentration of the agricultural production in the EU: the two sides of a coin. In 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261439. European Association of Agricultural Economists. Linda, R. (1976). Methodology of Concentration Analysis Applied to the Study of Industries and Markets. Studies. EU Commission - Working Document. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/5091475.pdf MEDRF. (2020). Results of Foreign Economic Activity of the Russian Federation in 2019. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Retrieved Jan 2021, from https://economy.gov.ru/material/dokumenty/itogi_vneshneekonomicheskoy_deyatelnosti_rossiyskoy_feder acii_v_2019_godu.html Moon, E. (2019). Big Ag Monopolies Have Stifled Small Farmers. 2020 Democrats Want to Break Them Up. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://psmag.com/social-justice/big-ag-monopolies-have-stifled-small-farmers-2020democrats-want-to-break-them-up Murphy, S. (2006). Concentrated Market Power and Agricultural Trade. EcoFair Trade Dialogue Discussion Paper No. 13. Murphy, S., Burch, D., & Clapp, J. (2012). Cereal Secrets: The World’s Largest Commodity Traders and Global Trends in Agriculture. Oxfam Research Reports. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fspublic/file_attachments/rr-cereal-secrets-grain-traders-agriculture-30082012-en_4.pdf Pavensky, I. (2018). Top-30 Grain Exporters. Agroinvestor. https://www.agroinvestor.ru/rating/article/30049-top-30-eksporterov-zerna/

Retrieved

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Pavensky, I. (2020). Staying in the Leaders. Agroinvestor. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://www.agroinvestor.ru/analytics/article/33967-ostatsya-v-liderakh-nesmotrya-na-slozhnyy-sezonrossiya-sokhranila-pervoe-mesto-v-mirovom-eksporte-p/ RMA. (2021a). Grain Exports Tariff Quota. Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://mcx.gov.ru/ministry/departments/departament-ekonomiki-investitsiy-i-regulirovaniyarynkov/industry-information/info-tarifnaya-kvota-na-eksport-zernovyh/ RMA. (2021b). Operational Review of the Agricultural Product Exports (as of February 7, 2021). Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Retrieved Feb 2021, from https://mcx.gov.ru/upload/iblock/43e/43ebeccde18f0c579da0faed3306e062.pdf Sexton, R.J., & Xia, T. (2018). Increasing concentration in the agricultural supply chain: Implications for market power and sector performance. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10, 229-251. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-023312 Sinitsyna, I. (2021). Foods Continue to Rise in Price Despite the Bans of Officials. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://www.vtimes.io/2021/02/04/produkti-prodolzhayut-dorozhat-vopreki-zapretam-chinovnikov-a2967 Sunde, T., & Charumbira, M. (2010). Seller concentration in the grain milling industry. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 2. DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2010.247.252 USDoJ. (2010). Horizontal Merger Guidelines. U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://www.justice.gov/atr/horizontal-merger-guidelines-08192010#5c Uzun, V.Ya., & Shagaida, N.I. (2019). Assessment of the impact of institutional and structural changes on the development of the agricultural sector in Russia. Economic Issues, 4, 39-58. DOI: 10.32609/0042-87362019-4-39-58

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World Bank. (2009). A State Trading Enterprise for Grains in Russia? Issues and Options. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved Jan 2021, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18899 Zubareva, Yu.V., & Oznobikhina, A.O. (2019). The indicators of the size of agricultural enterprises and the method of their determination. Moscow Economic Journal, 11, 470-477. DOI: 10.24411/2413-046X-201910179 Dr. Inna V. ANDRONOVA is Professor and Head of the Department of International Economic Relations, Head of the International Economic Relations program. She is a member of the Expert Council for Economic Sciences of the Higher Attestation Commission under the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation. She worked as CFO of the MMG Group of Companies. Her research interests are Economic and Foreign Economic Security, Economic Interests of Russia in the Regions of the World. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7861-5414 Dr. Veronika Yu. CHERNOVA is an Associate Professor at the People’s Friendships University of Russia, Department of International Economic Relations, Institute of Marketing, State University of Management. Her interests are World Economy, Marketing of Transnational Companies, Import Substitution, Product Personalization, One-to-one Marketing, Interactive Marketing Communications, Retailer's Communication Strategies; Product Personalization, Managing Datadriven Advertising Campaigns. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5951-909 Nataliya V. DYUZHEVA is an Associate Professor, Graduate of the Department of International Economic Relations, Head of the Postgraduate Training Program. She is a Cand. Sci. (Economics). Her research and projects are commissioned by such structures as the Eurasian Economic Commission, Russian Conversion Fund, Russian Industrial Collegium, AlmazAntey Air Defense Concern, Vega Radio Engineering Concern, Russian Space Agency, RSC Energia, S. Khrunichev and others, as well as consulting on foreign economic activity. Her research interests are International Trade, Regulation of International Trade (TTR, NTR), International Economic Integration. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7976-4297 Andrei A. KARAVDIN is a Postgraduate student of the Department of International Economic Relations of RUDN University. His research interests are International Trade, Agricultural Economics, International Economic Integration, Import Substitution, Eurasian Economic Union, Common Agricultural Policy. ORCID ID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0501-7050

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ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

CEO Duality Political Connection and Firms’ Reporting Earnings Quality in Egyptian Firms Dalia Ali Mostafa Hemdan1*, Suhaily Hasnan1, Saif Ur Rehman2 Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA, MALAYSIA. School of Business, Skyline University College, Sharjah, UAE. *Corresponding Author (Tel: +20 100 524 8000, Email: dalia-hemdan@hotmail.com)

1 2

Abstract

Paper ID: 12A10U Volume 12 Issue 10 Received 19 May 2021 Received in revised form 03 August 2021 Accepted 08 August 2021 Available online 14 August 2021

Keywords:

Board Independence; Female Directors; ROA; Earnings Management; Firm Age; GMM; Egypt; Manufacturing Sector; CEO with dual roles; Corporate governance; FREQ.

In this study, we investigate the impact of CEO duality on firms' reported earnings quality (FREQ). Further, the moderating role of CEO political connection is also explored. Our sample is based on 154 Egyptian firms for 2008-2018. We find negative and significant impacts of CEO duality on FREQ. Likewise, CEO political connection moderates the negative impact of CEO duality on FREQ. In additional analyses, we find CEO gender substitutes the negative impact of CEO duality on FREQ. We also explore the constraining role of corporate governance for negative impacts of CEO duality on FREQ. When the presence of female directors reaches three (critical mass), FREQ improves. However, we find insignificant impacts of boards independence on FREQ in Egypt. Disciplinary: Management Science Accounting, Corporate Governance).

(Business Management,

Finance,

Cite This Article: Hemdan, D. A. M., Hasnan, H., Rehman, S. U. (2021). CEO Duality Political Connection and Firms’ Reporting Earnings Quality in Egyptian Firms. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(10), 12A10U, 1-9. http://TUENGR.COM/V12/12A10U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2021.210

1 Introduction The firm financial reporting information quality (FREQ) is one of the main concerns for stockholders. The importance of earnings quality is so critical that authorities throughout the globe spared no effort to steady marketplaces augmenting stockholder promise (Arthur et al., 2015). Global financial crisis reasons transitory current year earnings, dropping firm capitalization and improbability about firms prospect (Bepari et al., 2013). However, the momentary and noisy earnings nature is expected to influence investors to study the prospects of firms; probable earnings as the prospect becomes undefined. The Egyptian financial crisis of 2011 adversely affected FREQ that ultimately impacted the Egyptian stock exchange performance. These results

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have shattered investors’ confidence that caused many listed EGX firms’ letdown. The literature has shown that crises resulted in investors’ freaks during the crises (Talley and Johnsen, 2004). In the context of FREQ during crisis periods, apprehensions might be raised to the administration in respect of the use of accounting structure manipulating earnings intentionally (Iatridis and Dimitras, 2013; Persakis and Iatridis, 2015). Nevertheless, the management may prefer transparency in earnings quality to retain stockholder confidence and recuperate firm’s liquidity (Arthur et al., 2015). Therefore, the role of the governance mechanism is quite important in determining FREQ in Egypt. Being an emerging economy, Egypt offers the case of a diverse prediction about the accrual’s superiority of accounting-based performance measures. Since there is no established financial analysis industry in the Egyptian capital market, public firms do not disclose forecasted financial information commonly (Ragab and Omran, 2006 and Ebaid, 2010). So, the firm financial reports are the only source of basic information for stockholders as guidance for their future investments. Accordingly, accrual accounting information lays the basis for almost all stock transactions in the Egyptian market; therefore, it is quite imperative to use accruals-based measures for earnings quality because stock prices are significantly associated with earnings quality in Egypt (Ragab and Omran, 2006; Hassan et al., 2009 and Ebaid, 2010).

2 Literature Review 2.1 CEO Duality and Earnings Quality CEO duality refers to a position where the CEO also chairs the board of directors (Jaggi et al., 2009). The literature provides contradicting views on the role of CEO duality in earnings quality. Chen et al. (2007) acknowledged that we can divide corporate governance into two traits: the firm’s ownership structure and leadership. In the context of leadership structure, the board structure and CEO duality are the main causes of concern. In some economies, like the US, most of the organizations prefer CEO duality; whereas in the UK, Canada, and Japan, only a few CEOs are also BOD chairman. Although CEO duality appears to be an apparent encounter, the evidence on either it really damages stockholders is quite diverse. Some authors have found that the duality raises the probability that CEO rewards need to be kept in check. (Petra and Dorata 2008) found that excruciating the roles upsurges the probability that CEO compensation may be reserved or kept in check. This is in line with the view that a CEO with a dual role may enhance the probability to look after his own interests at the cost of stockholders. In contrast, (Faleye 2007) highlighted that firms prefer to have CEO duality. The study explores the impacts of CEO duality on firms’ reported earnings quality. CEO duality refers to the situation where CEO also chairs. Empirics show that a CEO acquires power largely through his tenure in his current position. A newly appointed CEO tends to confront substantial encounters and hindrances that he has never practiced. First, he needs acceptance from his board in order to retain his job and secure his authority (Tuwey and Tarus, 2016). Therefore, until he can satisfy the anticipations of his board, his power remains much

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weaker than that of an established CEO (Baker et al., 2019). Once he is accepted by the board, his managerial capability and discretion also rise. Hence this increased expertise and discretion may enable him to have certain choices like ‘‘compliant’’ directors. In this way, he can strengthen his influence over the corporate board. Therefore, the study hypothesizes as; H1: CEO duality is negatively and significantly associated with a firm’s reported earnings quality in Egypt.

2.2 CEO’s Political Connection and Firm’s Reported Earnings Quality In transitional economies, political connection carries costs that firms are exposed to. This cost is affiliated with government interventions on a firm’s operation (Li et al., 2015). The intervention often affects firms’ operations and results in the pursuance of political goals unsuited with firms’ objects (Fauzi and Locke, 2012). As a result, the firm is involved in hiring unqualified folks of government executives to fill high-ranking positions (Elbadry et al., 2015). At the same time, there are fewer prospects for shareholders to diversify their risk. The strong political connection results in poor governance mechanisms and professionalism (Mashayekhi and Bazaz, 2008). Further, the literature highlights information asymmetry problems, poor earnings quality, and less precise analyst forecasts in these firms (Chen et al., 2010). In addition, Al-dhamari & Ismail (2015) documented that politically connected firms are related to poor FREQ. In contrast, it is stated that firms offer to source for special treatment through tax waivers, government subsidies, and ease in access to finance (Darko et al., 2016). This view supports the maxim that politically connected firms may outperform their counterpart. So far, the impacts in transition economies are negative on firms' performance and earnings quality. A higher percentage of political connections leads to window dressing in the financial statement (Watts & Zimmerman, 1990; Huang et al., 2012). Moreover, agency conflicts are prominent in politically connected firms, which may result in poor earnings quality (Al-Dhamari& Ismail, 2015). Therefore, we argue that a politically connected CEO is more likely to involve in earning management since his political connection empowers him to influence the corporate board and obtain favor for his personal likings. His involvement reduces the reported earnings quality. Hence, the study hypothesizes as under: H2: A CEO political connection moderates the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ in Egypt.

2.3 Role of Board Diversity in FREQ Earlier literature highlights contradictory evidence concerning the association between female directors and FREQ. However, there are pieces of evidence that show that female presence results in better board monitoring (Adams and Ferreira, 2009). Further, it is believed that female directors are comparatively more independent and active in motoring as they are not a part of “old boys’ networks”. At the same time, they are less tolerant of opportunistic behaviors. According to resource dependency theory, female directors are often different in skills, knowledge and their background and they help the board make better decisions by bringing about contrary and acute rational. Therefore, their presence may increase monitoring intensity and quality; thus, reducing CEO influence on corporate decisions (Cumming et al., 2015). In this vein, earnings management

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implies that actual firm performance is distorted, and is known as one of the most important salient features of CEO self-serving conducts. The presence of female directors is associated with fewer earnings management, fewer firm frauds, and tax avoidances (Owen and Temesvary, 2018). Thus, we propose that female directors can curtail the CEO power and reduce or eliminate the negative impacts of CEO powers on firms’ reported earnings quality. The hypothesis is constructed, H3: The presence of board gender diversity mitigates or substitutes the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ in Egypt. For further clarity, we constructed a sub-hypothesis based on gender critical mass as most of the prior studies have highlighted female directors do influence firms’ policies once they obtain a critical mass on the corporate board. To explore the constraining role of gender-critical mass (three female directors), we construct the hypothesis H3a:- The presence of gender-critical mass mitigates or substitutes the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ in Egypt.

2.4 Board Independence and FREQ As per the agency theory, conflicts of interest exist between minority and majority shareholders, with risks of exploitation of resources for private gains. Major shareholders could look to exploit their personal interests and expropriate the capital of other stakeholders (Chang, 2003). Major shareholders have direct access to inside information; they can utilize it for personal gains. Therefore, the outside investors mostly depend on the monitoring activity of the BOD. Board is authorized by shareholders to monitor management on their behalf. Likewise, the agency theory backs the concept that board independence is significantly related to board effectiveness (Halme&Huse, 1997). Therefore, board independence is one of the most important factors used to monitor the firm managerial activities (Jensen & Meckling, 1976). Arguably, an independent board is in a superior position to have checks-and-balances on management (Dunn & Clark, 1987). As recommended by Baker (1987), the presence of outside directors encourages management to be involved in long-term policies rather than making short-term decisions in order to have a quick payoff. In fact, the dominance of independent directors helps to ease agency conflicts by having checks-and-balances on management opportunistic behavior (Jensen &Mecking, 1976). As a result, board independence may play an imperative role in monitoring the CEO's Powers in the firm’s decision-making. To conclude, it is confirmed that prior researchers have supported the hypothesis that board independence reduces earnings management and increases earnings quality. Therefore, we construct the hypothesis as H4:- Board independence mitigates or substitutes the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ in Egypt.

2.5 Measurement of Earnings Quality (Dependent Variable) The literature highlights diverse measures of FREQ, which are significantly affected by the trends in earnings quality, their determinants over time and accounting changes, changes in

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corporate governance codes, and cost of capital. Since there is no direct mechanism to calculate or observe the FREQ of the firms, the study uses accruals quality as a proxy to measure earnings quality. Further, Dechow and Dichev (2002) encompass this impression into the applied degree of a firm’s accrual and FREQ and provided a new method to evaluate the quality of a firm’s accruals. The measures of a firm’s accrual quality primarily focus on the mapping of the ratio of a firm’s current accruals into earlier ratios, existing and future cash flows from the firm’s operations (Raman et al., 2008). For this purpose, Kothari et al. (2005) demonstrated that a firm’s accruals are correlated with performance. For analysis, they recommended that there is a need to include ROA as a supplementary variable in the modified-Jones model advocated by Dechow et al. (1995) for valuing a firm’s discretionary accruals. In main regression, ROA is measured as net income before extraordinary items divided by firm total assets at lag year (year t-1): TACit

TAssett−1

In Equation (1)

= α0 + α1

TAssett−1

+ α2

∆REVit −∆RECit TAssett−1

+ α3

PPEit

TAssett−1

(1).

+ α4 ROA it + εit

TACj,t= TAC represents the firm’s i total accruals for in year t.

TAssetj,t−1 = TAsset represents the firm’s i total assets in year t-1;

∆REC j,t = ∆REC j,t represents the firm’s I account receivable in year t ∆REV j,t= REV represents revenue of firm i in year t; and

PPE j,t= PPE j,t represents the value of the firm’s property, plant, and equipment in year and ROA= return on assets.

2.6 Descriptive Statistics The mean value of the sample firm’s age is 27.26% with a median value of 27.171 and the data is negatively skewed with an SD of 3.435 and kurtosis 2.423. Further, firm growth has mean and median values of 2.577 and 1.301, respectively. The maximum and minimum ranges for firm growth are 21.477 and -2.19 and the data on the variable is negatively skewed. Financial leverage represents the debt to equity ratio and its mean and median values are 1.480 and 1.452. The overall data of firms’ size is positively skewed. Table 1 shows the Descriptive statistics of this study. Table 1: Descriptive statistics Variables CEO Duality % Gender dummy% BOD independence% Political connection % Firm Age % Firm Growth Financial Leverage Firm Size (log) International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) Dividend per Share (DPS)

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Mean 0.339 0.851 0.340 0.307 27.260 2.577 1.480 4.423

Median 0.305 1.000 0.317 0.000 27.171 1.301 1.452 4.330

Maximum 1.000 1.000 0.733 1.000 57.000 21.477 7.189 9.190

Minimum 0.000 0.000 0.188 0.000 16.000 -2.19 0.003 0.301

SD 0.499 0.356 0.160 0.461 3.435 4.867 0.355 1.679

Skewness 0.123 -1.972 0.214 0.838 -0.077 -0.408 6.905 0.221

Kurtosis 1.015 4.890 2.547 1.702 2.423 5.473 7.955 2.585

0.521 1.572

1.000 1.566

1.000 6.975

0.000 0.016

0.500 1.085

-0.083 -4.897

1.007 8.833

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For further clarity, the study also conducted the variance inflation (VIF) test. In this study, the VIFs are applied as an overall diagnostic measure of collinearity. In addition, it signifies an extensively improved method than reviewing the simple correlation matrix. It’s important to note that it provides researchers an advantage because VIF values specify the coefficient for which the collinearity may be a problem. (Casella, Fienberg et al. 2015). As per literature support, the problem of multicollinearity persists if VIF values are above 5. VIFs estimates are presented in Table 4.3 and the findings show that the VIF estimate for each variable is below 5 indicating no problem if multicollinearity is in mode. Table 2: Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Variables Reported earnings quality Board independence CEO duality DPS Firm age Firm growth Financial leverage Foreign ownership Firm size Gender diversity IFRS Political connection

1/VIF 0.422 0.522 0.612 0.613 0.803 0.806 0.841 0.873 0.374 0.508 0.305 0.493

VIF 2.369 1.914 1.632 1.630 1.245 1.239 1.188 1.144 2.670 1.966 3.271 2.027

3 Main Results The main findings of the GMM estimator are reported in Table 3. As per findings reported in Table 3, the earnings quality (-1) has a significant and positive association with earnings quality (β= 0.7660 and p>.01; refer to Table 3). Further, the variables of concern include CEO-duality, board diversity, and BOD independence. The findings show that CEO-Duality negatively and significantly impacts earnings quality of the Egyptian firms (β= -0.1108 and p>.05; refer to Table 3). These findings are in line with earlier findings (Bruno, 2005; Egger and Merlo, 2007). The negative relation may be attributed to CEO power dynamics. CEO power dynamics view confers that CEO with dual role exercises more power and the role also empower him to implement his discretion (Lewellyn and Fainshmidt 2017, Wijethilake and Ekanayake 2019). Thus his dual role is negatively associated with earnings quality. However, the finding contradicts with earlier findings of (Bruno 2005, Egger and Merlo 2007). Therefore, H1 is strongly supported. Meanwhile, the direct impacts of political connection, gender dummy, Female-Director, and board independence are tested and we found a negative association between CEO political connection and FREQ (β= -0.0711 and p>.10; Table 3). In contrast, gender dummy and board independence have an insignificant association with FREQ in Egypt. However, we find a positive and significant impact of Female-Director on FREQ in Egypt (β= 0.163 and p>.01; Table 3). Our main concern is the interaction term between CEO duality and three measures of corporate governance (gender dummy, Female-Director, and board independence). The first interaction term between CEO duality X political connection is negative and significant implying

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that political connection moderates the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ in Egypt. We find a higher level of significance and coefficient value for the interaction term. Therefore, it can be concluded that CEO political connection moderates the negative relation between CEO duality and FREQ both in terms of magnitude and level of significance. Hence our H2 is strongly supported. Further, we find that the interaction term between CEO duality and gender dummy is negative and significant implying that gender dummy does not weaken the negative association between CEO duality and FREQ. This means that the presence of one female serves as tokenism as they are unable to constrain CEO power in manipulating firm’s earnings. Resultantly our H3 is not supported. To test H3a, we introduced the interaction term between CEO duality and FemaleDirector and findings show that the interaction term is positive and significant (β= 0.0912 and p>.05; refer to Table 3). Therefore, we conclude that the presence of female directors positively impacts FREQ in Egypt only once it reaches the critical mass on the board. As a result, H3a is supported. Table 3: Hypotheses Testing Variables Earnings quality (-1) CEO Duality (H1) Political connection Gender dummy BOD independence Female-Director Interaction terms CEO Duality X political connection (H2) Gender dummy X political connection (H3) Female-Director X political connection (H3a) Board independence X political connection (H4) Control factors Firm Age Firm Growth Financial Leverage Firm Size Audit Quality IFRS Year effect Industry effect ARELLANO-BOND TEST (AR(1)) p-value ARELLANO-BOND TEST (AR(2)) p-value Hansen p-value Wald chi-square Wooldridge p-value Wu-Hausman P-value

Coefficient 0.766*** -0.110** -0.071* 0.002 0.008 0.163*** -0.199*** -0.100 0.091** -0.045** 0.070*** -0.001*** -0.133 -1.255*** 0.834*** 0.082*** Yes Yes -9.665*** 0.722 0.650 118.061*** 546.482*** 9.181***

p-value 0.000 0.042 0.072 0.163 0.066 0.000 0.202 0.000 0.081 0.445 0.019 0.052 0.000 0.000 0.312 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.001 0.622 0.512 0.000

In contrast, the interaction term between CEO duality and board independence is negative and significant. This shows that board independence does not serve as constraining role in Egypt. Based on these findings, it is stated that board independence is an ineffective mechanism to mitigate the negative consequence of the CEO when he exercises duality in the context of FREQ in Egypt. Hence, our H4 is not supported.

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To ensure the measured effect may not be influenced by other factors, the study includes additional factors that are held constant in the main regression as control factors (Bernerth et al., 2018; Li et al., 2020). Among the control factors, firm age has a positive and significant impact (β= 0.0703 and p>.01; refer to Table 3) on FREQ. In contrast, we find a negative association between firm growth and FREQ in Egypt (β= -0.0010 and p>.01; refer to Table 3). This supports the firms’ growth prospects views as the firms in the growth stage are financial constraints, less likely to have profit, and lower retained earnings (Collins et al., 2017). Financial leverage is insignificantly related to FREQ. Surprisingly, the study finds firms’ size as negative and significant determinants of FREQ in Egypt (β= -1.2558 and p>.01; refer to Table 3). Further, IFRS is also positively and significantly associated with FREQ in Egypt (β= 0.0821and p>.01; refer to Table 3). The findings support the maxim that IFRS Standards address the contest of accounting since it provides quality international accounting standards that take along limpidity, responsibility, and efficiency to financial markets in Egypt. Lastly, the study finds an insignificant association between DPS and FREQ. For further clarity, the study also includes year and industry effects to capture in variation is a specific year or industry following earlier researches (Vasilescu and Millo, 2016; Capalbo et al., 2018; Mason and Morton 2020).

4 Discussion This study highlights the negative consequences of CEO duality in Egypt in the context of earning quality. Further, the shareholders are required to oversight CEO duality through the board so that earnings management should be constrained in Egyptian firms.

Likewise, it is quite

imperative to eliminate the CEO's dual role when he is politically connected since the political connection augments the negative relationship between CEO duality and FREQ. The shareholders can curtail the role of CEO duality by appointing a critical mass of female directors as gender diversity significantly substitutes the negative association between CEO duality and FREQ. Lastly, the policymakers are required to review the role of board independence as we find no evidence of board independence in the Egyptian context.

5 Conclusion Based on agency theory and resource-based view, this study tests the role of CEO duality, and the findings fail to support resource-based view; whereas, agency theory prevails as the study finds negative impact of CEO duality on firms reported earnings quality. Further, gender diversity shows positive significant impacts on firms' reported earnings quality supporting the resourcebased view and gender-critical mass maxim in Egypt. However, the study fails to find any evidence to support the resource-based view or agency conflicts in the context of board independence. The study also tested the role of political interferences and the findings show that politically connected firms are more likely to have poor FREQ. The findings are consistent with an agency-based view. In contrast, political affiliation does not have any significant impact on firms' reported earnings quality. The study used interaction terms to explore the moderating or weakening role of political connection for the association between CEO duality and FREQ. Findings show controversial

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support for agency theory. Political connection serves as a mechanism that increases agency conflicts as far as the interaction terms are concerned. This implies that politically connected firms have comparatively more agency conflicts than their counterpart. Meanwhile, gender diversity does serve as a mitigating mechanism only once female presence reaches the benchmark of critical mass (three female directors on the corporate board). However, there is presence below critical mass serve as a token as they do not influence or constrain the CEO power in Egypt. At the same time, we find that board independence does not serve as a constraining mechanism in Egypt, and CEOs with dual roles exercise dominance on board independence in the context of earnings management.

6 Availability of Data And Material Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

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Prof. Dr. SuhailyHasnan is an Associate Professor at the Department of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM), Malaysia. Her research focuses on Financial Restatement, Corporate Governance, Earnings Quality, and Fraudulent Financial Reporting

Prof. Dr.Saif-Ur-Rehman Khanis is a Post-Doctoral Fellow, Department of Management, Universiteit BG Breukelen, The Netherland. His research focuses on Corporate Governance, Corporate Social Responsibility, Business Sustainability, and Financial Practice.

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