MARCH 2008 by Epilogue Press

Epilogue because there is more to know

www.epilogue.in

CONTENTS

the return of democracy in neighbourhood, its significance for jammu and kashmir

Editor in Chief Zafar Choudhary Consulting Editor D. Suba Chandran Associate Editor Irm Amin Baig Photo Division J.P. Bandral Designs & Layout Keshav Sharma

Volume 2, Issue 3, March 2008

Executive Director Mohammad Yasmeen Mailing Address PO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar, Jammu Phones & email Editorial: +91 94194-80762 Administration:+91 9419631610 +91 9419000123 editor@epilogue.in subscription@epilogue.in

IN FOCUS The Return Of Democracy In Neighbourhood, its significance for Jammu & Kashmir

Pakistan Election 2008

Return of Democracy ?

Pakistan Elections And India-Pakistan Peace Process

Edited, Printed and Published by Zafar Choudhary for CMRD Publications and Communications Published from ‘Ibadat’, Madrasa Lane, Bhatindi Top, Jammu, J&K

Letters to the editor Prologue Reports The SOZ Factor Land Of Rising Sons

9 10 12

Transparency Legal Opinion On J&K RTI Amendment Bill

Special Report Salwa Judum : A Purification Hunt ?

Ladakh Politics Ladakh UT Movement : Empty Rattling

Commentary India’s Australia Series And Beyond

Oil Hunt

Review Book Movie Columns Tareekh

Printed at Dee Dee Reprographix, Jammu Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction of courts and competitive tribunals in Jammu only. Price : Rs 40 Epilogue Ø 1× January 2008

2 3

44 45

Jest Ponder

47 49

Security Mizoram

Analysis Human Rights Situation In Pak, Gilgit And Baltistan

Epilogue From the Consulting Editor

M A I L

B O X

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Letters

Mail your letters to editor@epilogue.in

I FOUND EPILOGUE INTERESTING - B G Verghese Center For Policy Research Formerly Editor Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Advisor to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi

Epilogue Ø 2× March 2008

P R O L O G U E FROM THE EDITOR

Let’s Start Talking

Zafar Choudhary Many people may not be the immediate beneficiaries or victims of any electoral process but still a majority is seen as a keen watcher of elections and processes that involve change of regime. Our immediate neighbourhood, Pakistan, went to elections on February 18 and in Jammu and Kashmir the event evoked a keen interest. People remained glued to the television screens to watch the outcome, the local press carried the reportage prominently and the process involved a dominant discourse at all places –from casual discussions at the tea stalls to the working committee meetings of the political parties. It was not just the educated and the mediaconscious here that had focused attention on the Pakistan elections, every one was equally keen. Why the Pakistan elections assumed so much of importance in Jammu and Kashmir? After all it is our immediate neighbourhood. “You can change a friend but not a neighbour, therefore always pray for the wellbeing for the neighbour as it is in your own interest”, says the wisdom. Developments in Pakistan are always keenly watched not only in J&K but also in most of India. This time, however, people were not only watching the process but were also praying for the positive outcome. For the internal disturbance in Pakistan, the Kashmir peace process stands stalled for almost a year. While there is no positive talking with Islamabad, the course of dialogue between New Delhi and Srinagar too has not been moving forward because stability in Pakistan has a direct bearing on the peace process. Most mainstream and separatist politicians here decided to wait and watch till a clearer picture emerged in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen most turbulent times since the beginning of last year. Incidentally that was the time when the contours of peace process and thus possibilities of stability in the region were looking brightest in the

recent years. 2007 was, therefore, often described as a defining moment in the history of Kashmir peace process. It all derailed. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto came as most unfortunate event in the neighbourhood. With her death the possibilities of stability returning to Pakistan appeared further grim. The much awaited and the much suspected elections are now over. Contrary to wide apprehensions of rigging and violence, the elections have been relatively fair and free of any major incident of violence. Pakistan can be seen limping back to democracy though not much towards normalcy. People had been watching the Pakistan elections with keen interest but not knowing much about the internal political structure of the country. Our Consulting Editor D Suba Chandran with his expert team including Rekha Chakravarthi, Devyani Srivastva had been keeping a keen eye on the neighbourhood. They bring the exclusive reportage and analysis after reading which you don't need to read more about Pakistan politics at the regional and provincial levels. A report from Madiha Tallat, our associate in Lahore, brings a precise picture from the ground and tells story of missing Kashmir from political discourse. Situation unfolding in the near future has to bee seen keenly. As things move toward stability in Pakistan, the signs of instability are emerging from India. There are possibilities of country going to elections later this year. If we realize the significance or democracy in neighbourhood there is also need to realize the urgency of utilizing the opportunity. Once things settle down in Islamabad, India and Pakistan should start talking peace and talking Kashmir. Feedback : zafar.choudhary@epilogue.in

Epilogue Ø 3× March 2008

Epilogue because there is more to know

EPILOGUE aims at providing a platform where a meaningful exchange of ideas, opinion and thoughts can take place among the people and about the people of Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to research, investigate, communicate and disseminate information, ideas and alternatives for the resolution of common problems facing the state and society of Jammu & Kashmir and in the context of their significance to South Asia as a whole. We welcome contributions from academics, journalists, researches, economists and strategic thinkers. We would also like to encourage first-time writers with the only requirements being a concern for and the desire to understand the prevailing issues and themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir Contributions may be investigate, descriptive, analytical or theorectical. They may be in the form of original articles or in the form of a comment on current events. All contributions have to be neatly types in double space and may be sent to the address given alongside or e-mailed to the editor. While the editor accepts responsibility for the selection of the material published, individual authors are responsible for the facts, figures and viess ithe tier articles.

H E A R

A N D

H E A R

WHO SAID WHAT

“We a land re not sell could to outside ing the r on le be provid s, but it ase fo e r the d to them devel of inf opme rastru nt cture ” Ghulam Nabi Azad

“Congress will be keeping its options open for the poll alliance with any party. I think PDP will also have the same situation” Saifudin Soz

“The successive Governments in Delhi were never sincere to mitigate sufferings of the masses instead, they played regional and communal cards for its own vested interests” Dr Farooq Abdullah

“The Army must only be used as a last resort and for a minimal period” Gen Deepak Kapoor, Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army

“According to our intelligence inputs, present number of militants in the Valley is 450” MS Gupta, IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations

“It is not our duty. It is for the executive to decide how to consider the matter. We cannot pass such direction,” Chief Justice K G Balakrishanan heading the bench on expediting the execution of death sentence of Mohammad Afzal

Epilogue Ø 4× March 2008

C H R O N O L O G Y J&K FEBRUARY 2008

February 1: The Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati has declared to contest elections on all 87 assembly constituencies of J&K. Elections are due later this year. Party national general secretary Narinder Kashyap told a press conference in Srinagar that BSP wants to play a serious role in J&K. "People of the State are fed up with corrupt and self centered politicians, and BSP will provide young, dynamic and clean leadership which will work for peace and development of the State," he added. February 2: First cross-LoC infiltration bid of this year if foiled in Mendhar sector of Poonch district in which three top militants, believed to be Pakistanis, and two police personnel including a constable and a Special Police Officer are killed while an Army soldier is injured. A heavy exchange of gunfighting started between the two sides after a contact with the infiltrators was established in dense Ghani forests, about a couple of kms inside the LoC. February 3:

Kashmir issue could be resolved through "sincerity, courage and flexibility". In a message on the "Kashmir solidarity day" he said, "we firmly believe that an enabling environment is necessary for the success of the peace process." "We remain engaged in a sincere, sustained and purposeful dialogue with India on Kashmir. We believe that with sincerity, courage and flexibility, we can achieve a solution to the long-standing Kashmir dispute," he said. February 5: Heavy snowfall, rains and landslides throw life out of gear across J&K. The Jammu-Srinagar highway –only surface link between two capitals –is closed and hundreds of passengers get stranded on both sides. February 6: Punjab National Bank announces plan to put all branches in J&K on National Network of Centralized Banking Solutions (CBS) by March 2008 and also to link these branches with other banks for National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) system. Vivek Arya, PNB Zonal Manager, says that branches in rural areas would be linked to National Network with Double VSAT connectivity while lease line and ISDN medium provided by BSNL would be used for city and district headquarters branches.

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti meets PM Manmohan Singh in New Delhi and projects demand for safe return of youths and political leaders who had gone across during turmoil and are now eager to return. She said any relief to the youth who had gone across for arms training and are now eager to return and live normal life, should be extended to non-combatants as well who had gone across during the turmoil, under whatever circumstances. "It will be a significant goodwill gesture and a reconciliatory move of great essence on behalf of the Government of India," she said.

J&K DGP says that some 550 to 600 militants infiltrated from across LoC into the state. He says that despite internal turmoil in Pakistan, there was not let up in infiltration. Based on inputs the DGP says that terror infrastructure was intact in Pakistan and its administered Kashmir.

February 4:

February 8:

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf advocats the need for creating an "enabling environment" for the success of the Indo-Pak peace process and said the

At least 20 people are reported killed in different parts of state following heavy snowfall and cold weather persisting for last six days. Many still are missing.

February 7:

Epilogue Ø 5× March 2008

February 9: Expressing serious concern over the failure of various States including J&K to create better infrastructure for the judiciary, Chief Justice of India Justice K G Balakrishnan said that judiciary empowered with adequate infrastructure can contribute to the overall growth of the country. "It is pity that executive is neglecting judiciary while carrying out infrastructure development. Executive should keep in mind that we don't have any financial output". He was addressing valedictory function of Lok Adalat Week in the High Court Complex in Jammu. February 10: Three soldiers of Pakistan Army inadvertently land inside Indian territory in RS sector, close to IB in Jammu region. They have been identified as Nasir Ahmed, Amzad Farooq and Syed Zia-ulShah, aged between 24 and 26, were unarmed. They were taken into custody and questioning revealed that they were the sportspersons of Pak army who lost their way and landed in Indian side. They were later pushed off in a gesture of goodwill. February 11: 129 civilians cross Line of Control (LoC) on Poonch-Rawlakot bus service from Chakkan-Da-Bagh in Poonch district. While 81 persons travelled from Poonch to Pakistan administered Kashmir, 48 boarded the bus from PaK to Poonch. Out of 81 civilians, who travelled from Poonch to PaK, 29 were first timers visiting from this side to PoK to meet divided families and relatives while 52 were PaK citizens who went back homes after spending two fortnights on this side. Among 48 persons who came to Poonch from PaK, 21 arrived here from PaK to meet their relatives while 27 were J&K citizens who returned after spending a month in PaK. February 11: The toll of militants in the Valley has

C H R O N O L O G Y J&K FEBRUARY 2008

decreased and presently it is less than thousand which is lowest since inception of militancy. "According to our intelligence inputs, present number of militants in the Valley is 450," MS Gupta, IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations said. But it is a floating population and they are always on move. The maximum number could be upto 950. They (militants) are always on move. February 12: The State Human Rights Commission (SHRC) today issues notices to Inspector General of Police Kashmir range and Deputy Commissioner Kupwara asking them submit a report on the alleged firing by Army on protestors at Kupwara. Taking suo moto cognisance of reports in local media about the incident, acting Chairman of the SHRC H U Bhat directed IGP S M Sahai and Deputy Commissioner Asfandyar Khan to submit the report by Feb 25. February 13: The Central government agrees to construct a 1000 MW thermal power plant in Udhampur within a period of three years. Decision is taken in a meeting between CM GN Azad and Union Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. The Center also agreed to joint funding of the Baglihar hydro-electric project on Chenab River. In yet another decision the modernization of Jammu and Srinagar airports was agreed upon by the Civil Aviation Ministry, besides sanctioning two new airports for rural area –Kishtwar and Surankote. February 13: Kashmiri Congress leader and Union Minister for Water Resources Saif-ud-Din Soz is formally appointed as president of J&K unit of Congress. February 14: Former CM and NC leader Dr Farooq Abdullah blames New Delhi for unrest and militancy in state. He said that Central Governments always played

regional card and tried to divide people of the State on regional and communal basis. "They want us to keep fighting with each other so that they can rule us", he added.

killed and four others injured when a vehicle, they were travelling in, plunged into a 100 feet deep gorge at Champeri on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway near Udhampur.

February 16:

February 22:

NC President Omar Abdullah declared that his party was ready for pre-poll alliance with the like minded parties for forthcoming assembly elections in the state. He said "the question of thinking about post poll alliance does not arise at this stage but we are open for the prepoll alliance with like minded parties to face the coalition partners in the ensuing Assembly elections".

UPA chairperson and Congress president Sonia Gandhi accompanied by Home Minister Shivraj Patil and a team of Union Home Ministry visits the remote areas of Bhadarwah, Navapachi and Marwah to review the situation caused by the recent heavy snowfall, which took 30 lives in the State besides rendering several people homeless.

February 17:

February 23:

Gujjar and Bakerwal Joint Forum serves an ultimatum to the leaders of PDP and NC who have been pursuing agenda of ST status to non-tribal Pahari speaking people to shun their anti-tribal Gujjar policies or remain prepared to face wrath of STs in the State.

Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor says that the infiltration of militants from across the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir was on decline but the attempts had gone up in the recent past. In 2006, the infiltration was approximately 343 as per our count. In 2007, the figure stood at 311," he said in a television interview.

February 18: February 24: Clearing the air on buying land in Jammu and Kashmir controversy, Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad says there was nothing wrong in offering land on lease to outsiders for development purposes. "We are not selling the land to outsiders, but it could be provided to them on lease for the development of infrastructure," he said adding that Jammu and Kashmir has to open up to achieve all round development. February 19 : In exercise of the powers vested in him under section 53 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir, Governor Lt. Gen. (Retd) S.K. Sinha prorogues both the Houses of State Legislature, which were adjourned sine die by Speaker Tara Chand on January 30. February 21: Six persons including a Russian tourist are

Epilogue Ø 6× March 2008

PDP President Mehbooba Mufti blames NC for turmoil in state. She also holds the party responsible for killing prominent political leaders in Kashmir. Reacting to a statement of former CM Dr Farooq Abdullah, the PDP chief says, "when Dr Abdullah remains in the power he showers all praises on the Delhi and speaks critical against Pakistan but starts outbursts against the Union Government when he is out of the corridors of the power". February 25: President of India, Pratibha Patil in her address to join sitting of Parliament says that the Government is focusing on confidence building in all sections of society in Jammu and Kashmir by ensuring easier travel across the Line of Control and meeting the aspirations of the people to foster peace and normalcy.

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R E P O R T S THE SOZ FACTOR

‘High Command’ Balances Political Fulcrum Ahead Of Polls Epilogue News & Analysis The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir are due later this year and the Congress party –currently leading the government in alliance with Peoples Democratic Party –is preparing for the game in a different way. Eye brows were raised in the political circles when the Congress president Sonia Gandhi appointed Union Water Resources Minister Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz as president of Jammu and Kashmir unit of Congress. The post had fallen vacant a f t e r r e s i g n a t i o n o f Pe e r z a d a Mohammad Sayeed in January, who had to quit as Minister also, following allegations of corruption. Opposition to the nomination of Soz is well known in the rank and file of state Congress. Till recently he was with the National Conference but the Congress 'high command' in Delhi pushed for his meteoric rise in organization as well as in government since he played an instrumental role in the fall of BJP led NDA government in the devastating 1999 floor test in the Lok Sabha. Soz was subsequently expelled by the National Conference. Later same year he contested election for Lok Sabha from the North Kashmir just to suffer a humiliating defeat and even to loose his security deposits. Soz then stood in the middle of nowhere before Congress ventured out to honour him for the symbolic role he played in fall of NDA government by abstaining voting in the Lok Sabha despite a clear party whip. A couple of years later the Congress formally inducted him into the party and then rewarded with a seat in the Rajya Sabha. Soz's induction in the Congress in a way challenged the role of Ghulam Nabi Azad

priorities. Same year, Soz was inducted as Union Minister for Water Resources and his growing clout in Delhi started showing. Despite his rise in the government and organization in Delhi, the Congress unit in Jammu and Kashmir refused to be aligned with Soz. Instead a large majority continued to swear by Azad. Now when Soz is president of the J&K unit of the Congress, a general feeling in the political circles says that Azad is being sidelined and Soz is being propped up as parallel power center in the state. The political observers and the Congress insiders capable of reading the 'high command' pulse refuse to buy this theory. who had been enjoying the 'Kashmir space' in the party for nearly 30 years. In 2004, Congress returned to power and Ghulam Nabi Azad, also Rajya Sabha member from J&K, was inducted as Minister for Parliamentary Affairs. Azad was also an AICC General Secretary and member of the Congress Working Committee –the two most powerful positions anyone would aspire to have in the Congress. In November 2005, the Congress 'high command' decided to send Azad back to Jammu and Kashmir to replace Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as Chief Minister under the PDP-Congress power sharing pact of 2002. By this appointment he had to loose the position of AICC General Secretary though he remained an invitee to the CWC for a brief while by virtue of being the Chief Minister of a Congress run state. Azad's exit from Delhi marked the organizational rise of Soz. Few months later, he replaced Azad as member of the Congress Working Committee. This underlined Congress' redrawn Kashmir

Epilogue Ø 9× March 2008

Background After 1987 blot which it earned by rigging elections in alliance with National Conference under the infamous RajivFarooq accord, the Congress in Jammu and Kashmir had been relegated to oblivion till 2002. Ghulam Nabi Azad was appointed as state Congress president in April 2001 replacing Mohammad Shafi Qureshi –an honest politician with no contacts with ground. Qureshi's vast experience of serving as Governor of several states would often make him allergic to the public and thus distance Congress from the grassroots. When Azad took over, he found the going tough. The Congress was divided into dozens of lobbies and there was a whole hostile atmosphere. Situation was more critical in Kashmir Valley where showing Congress flag was next to a sin. He had his political career at the cross roads. Elections were due next year and only a better performance could have restored him the powerful organizational position in Delhi.

R E P O R T S OIL HUNT

He made a careful poll strategy and embarked on Jammu-centric campaign. “For first time since independence, you will get a Chief Minister from Jammu region” –this become the central campaign theme and there was an overwhelming response cutting across all lines. Congress fetched 15 seats from Jammu, five from Kashmir and then another group of five independent legislators from Jammu region joined the Congress as associate members. The party was back to the power structure after two decades. Azad was recalled in Delhi with his fresh election to Rajya Sabha and the powerful post of AICC General Secretary was restored to him. Mapping Future When Congress prepares for 2008 elections, things are not all the same. At a time when the Kashmir peace process can be seen entering a defining moment, a national political party like Congress can not afford to make regions and sub-regions as themes of poll campaign. The party has given Jammu region the Chief Minister and therefore the organization president is from the Valley. Then what difference Soz makes when the previous party chief was also from the Valley? Obviously, his stature. Soz carries a profile which matches that of Azad. Being a Union Minister he will also wield some symbolic clout and influence in the Valley when the party embarks on poll campaign later this year. If there some discontent in the Valley about the Chief Minister being from Jammu region, the Soz does fact does some balancing act. Soz's appointment, it is believed, comes with full concurrence of the Chief Minister Azad. Feeback : editor@epilogue.in

Geology : Fueling Indo-Pak Cooperation Epilogue News & Analysis “Geology is non political and does not believe in boundaries”, if this realized by the hostile South Asian neighbours –India and Pakistan –they can look at making Jammu and Kashmir an area of cooperation rather than contentions as this place been between the two countries for sixty years now. The arrival of leading Pakistani geologists and executives from the oil companies for exploring the oil and gas potential in Jammu and Kashmir can be a beginning in this direction. Being non-political in nature and for the absence of J&K Chief Minister as Chief Guest, an international conference hosted by the University of Jammu in February could not the media attention as this subject and its future course should have got. 140 geoscientists drawn from 60

countries, particularly Europe, Middle East and Pakistan, gathered at Jammu University campus and traveled across the rugged terrains of Jammu region to study the rock patterns which if dug deep can make Jammu and Kashmir yet another Gulf. “This Conference was not J&K specific or Indo-Pak specific on oil and gas exploration as believed by many”, says Prof GM Bhat of the Department of Geology at JU. In fact, Bhat says, the initiative was actually to study the rock patterns which are similar to those in the oil rich regions of the world. The participation of delegates from Pakistan, of course, makes the event important as Northern and Western areas of India share the same geological patterns with Pakistan which are believed to be rich in oil. The field trips and the brainstorming sessions examine the neoproterozoic

Proterozoic and Evaporite-Dolomite Succession of Jammu –A Note

ystematic geological mapping of Sirban Limestone in Reasi inlier revealed the existence of black shales, mudstones interbedded with stromatolitic dolomite. This clasticcarbonate suite of rocks is associated with orthoquartzite beds in the measured sections in Reasi inlier. The black shale and mudstone/mari bleds, laterally pinching are traceable from west of Reasi Town in Talwar to Bukkal, Mari, Anji in the northwest to Kotli in the southwest. We also took a few traverses across Proterozoic evaporate-dolmite succession in Doda and Ramban Districts and observed occurrences of carbonaceous phyllite and carbonaceous shale units in association with limestone bands interbedded with gypsum beds. The stratigraphic section at Chakwa nala

Epilogue Ø 10 × March 2008

near Batote comprises grey phyllites, buff quartzite, carbonaceous phyllite, pale yellow and fragile argillite with a gypsum band. The lithologs of exploratory boreholes in Kaurapani and Ramban areas drilled for the gypsum exploration have been also prepared. The Sirban Limestone has similarity with coeval hydrocarbon bearing rocks in Siberia, north Africa, Oman and other areas in the world. Therefore, these rocks need to be studies for their potential for hydrocarbons. The Proterozoic dolomite-evaporite succession of Doda and Ramban districts is equally important as it is overlain by diamictite bearing strata of Ramban Formation which may turn out to be glaciogenic in origin. HL Langeh, Rajinder Singh, JU

R E P O R T S OIL HUNT

stromatolite dolomitic sequence in Jammu region. So, what brought all these geoscientists from the world to Jammu? It was a meeting of Geoscientists in London in 2004 which studied the particular rock patterns and oil potential in countries like China, Australia and Oman. Further studies revealed that same rock pattern existed in Jammu and Kashmir, parts of Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan in India which extend through the neighbouring areas in Pakistan. Bindra Thussu, a native of Kashmir, working as Research Supervisor with Maghreb Petroleum Research Group at the University College London went thinking homewards. “I tried to find out if there were any organized research on the oil potential in Jammu and Kashmir”, Thusu told Epilogue in an exclusive interview. It was a google search which took him to a fellow Geologist Prof GM Bhatt at the University of Jammu. Ideas were

exchanged and Bhat landed in London in April 2006 for further discussion. This paved the way for an international conference at Jammu which saw participation of leading Geoscientists of the world, more significantly seven from Pakistan, and concluded with a resolve to see that the oil wells are dug eventually enriching economies and relations between India and Pakistan. After all Jammu and Kashmir is the epicenter. The conference was not an easy to hold event. The troubled land of Jammu and Kashmir and its false image of daily violence saw many scientists backing out. Some of them joined the preconference field trip to Rajasthan but they returned from Delhi being wary of the situation in J&K. Delegates from many countries either refused to set out for this state or had to drop their travel plans at the last minute owing to the negative advisories on J&K put by their respective foreign offices.

It was rather more difficult in getting the delegates from Pakistan in Jammu. The delegates were ready to travel, Pakistan government too was exceptionally encouraging but there were unusual hiccups from the India side. “I owe the entire success of conference to the Vice Chancellor Prof Amitabh Mattoo who pursued the matter with External Affairs Ministry and saw that the best Geoscientists from the world participate in the deliberations”, says Prof Bhat. The International Conference on Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential of the Neoproterozoic-Cambrian Basins in India, Pakistan and the Middle East was a joint initiative of the University of Jammu, Eni Milan, Maghreb Petroleum Research Group and Department of Earth Sciences, University College London.

Feedback : editor@epilogue.in

Interview

Juergen Thurow Department of Earth Sciences,University College London

You have visited J&K twice in connection with geological research and deliberations. What was your impression about this state before you visited first and now? Before coming here there was a lot of fear about the security situation and like many other people I too was suspicious. Now being twice, I hardly find any truth about what the world is told about Jammu and Kashmir. But this o p i n i o n i s obtained after my personal visit here. People still carry fears on their minds. There a r e m a n y p rofe ssors a n d

scientists who dropped their proposed visit as they could not be convinced about the positive situation prevailing here. I found a huge presence of troops here but I see this as a positive sign as this gives a sense of security. Kashmir is a bone contention. Do you think India and Pakistan can actually look at working together on oil and gas exploration in this place? Of course yes. Geology is not political, it does not believe in boundaries. Besides delegates from other parts of world, I have been working with the scientists from India and Pakistan and I find them optimistic about working together. The way Pakistan agreed to send their people in Jammu and Kashmir is a positive beginning in that direction. When out

Epilogue Ø 11 × March 2008

delegates sought an appointment from the Prime Minister of India to discuss the issue, they were granted a 5 minutes time but they ended up on a 40 minute meeting. This underlines the seriousness. Even Prime Minister was confident of a positive future development and an enhanced cooperation in the area. What next? We have had deliberations and field trips here. In November this year we will be picking up threads in next round of such conference in Libya. The conveners of the conference are keeping the governments informed of the developments. Our role is limited to research only and it is for the governments to commission the explorations.

R E P O R T S LAND OF RISING SONS

BUREAUCRACY

State Services Man Key Positions as IAS Officers Prefer Central Duties Zafar Choudhary

he former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed may have earned brickbats from the nationalists for proposing his model of 'self rule' to resolve Kashmir issue but his successor Ghulam Nabi Azad has quietly implemented a part of it. Whether it helps in resolution of Kashmir issue or strengthens the local electoral constituency is a separate question but a part of self rule proposal is now working in Jammu and Kashmir. Complete localization of the bureaucracy is one of the major proposals in the PDP version of self rule –a model tossed by General Pervez Musharraf. Though the Peoples Democratic Party is yet to make public the document which it claims has the well defined measures for lasting solution to Kashmir imbroglio but in its public-opinion building campaigns in late 2006, the party told people that officers of the All India Services will be packed off to Delhi and only locals will man the administration. For more than a year now, the PDP has not been talking about its self rule proposal and is hardly making any mention of the bureaucratic arrangement it had wanted to put in place. On the contrary, the present Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, whose Congress party shares power with the PDP and has his opposition to the self rule well known has partly and subtly implemented Mufti's agenda without making any noise about it. Under Azad's regime the sons of soil are literally rising and shining in the bureaucratic landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. At present, 18 of the total 22 Deputy Commissioners –a key post and the main interface between people and the government –are natives of Jammu and Kashmir. One of them is a direct IAS recruits while the majority is drawn from the state services, popularly known as Kashmir Administrative Services (KAS). Interestingly, a look at the top heavy power structure at the civil secretariat would reveal that the entire decision

Interview

Farooq Renzu,

President of KAS officers Association

Most of the key administrative responsibilities are now in the hands of officers from state services. How do you look at this emerging scenario? See, officers from the Kashmir Administrative Services are the real people who contributed to the development and peace in Jammu and Kashmir. They come from the local social fabric and have long standing stakes in the society. Their coming to the forefront of things is a compliment to their dedication and sincerity to the system. What dedication and sincerity? IAS officers too are performing well. I have always maintained that the IAS and KAS are two faces of the same coin. Therefore, they deserve equal treatment in delegation of key responsibilities. When I talk about the dedication and sincerity of the KAS officers, it is not only me talking about it, this is a widely acknowledged fact. They have worked and continue working in difficult terrain and hostile circumstances. These were the officers who served as true representatives of people when there was no elected government in the state. An advisor to the then Governor (somewhere between 1990-1996) talked to the Government of India and informed the Prime Minister about the role played by KAS officers when Jammu and Kashmir was passing through most difficult circumstances. Being an elected representatives of the KAS

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R E P O R T S LAND OF RISING SONS

officers, are you satisfied with the responsibilities delegated to the officers of state services.

'We have brought local officers on center stage of decision making system' On Record:

Though I place on record on behalf of all KAS officers our deep appreciations for the present Chief Minister Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad for realizing the importance of state services but this just the beginning and we need to go a long way. There should be promotion avenues parallel to the IAS officers and the KAS officers should get the opportunity of reaching to the positions of Principal Secretaries and Financial Commissioners. We are not asking this just on the basis that Jammu and Kashmir is special category state; many other states in the country like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal have a similar system. M o r e o v e r, a t p r e s e n t d u a l superannuation age structure is existing in J&K state. The officers of one premier service retire at the age of 60 while as officers and employees of other cadres retire at the age of 58. The association believes that uniform retirement age structure will be made applicable for all services functioning in the state including KPS Isn't it like cutting through the space of IAS officers? Not at all. I must tell you, the IAS officers are pleading our cause more vigorously. Though it is natural to expect such support from the officers like Mr BR Kundal, the Chief Secretary and Mr Khurshid Ahmed Ganai, the Principal Secretary GAD being the local IAS officers, the officers from outside like Mr BB Vyas, the Commissioner Secretary Finance are supporting our cause pro-actively. (RENZU is presently Deputy Commissioner, Badgam)

GHULAM NABI AZAD Chief Minister, J&K Our government has brought local officers on the centre stage of policy and decision making and for the first time in the history of the State local officers are holding 90 percent key positions in the administration. The argument that local officers in J&K are not on top administrative positions does not hold good anymore. This casts a greater responsibility on them to perform and come up to the expectations of the people. My government has involved in major number local officers in decision making process, assigning them key positions. The topmost position of Chief Secretary and Director General of Police are both held by local officers today. for the first time, 19 out of 22 District Development Commissioners in the State belong to J&K itself. Earlier, the case was reverse. Similarly, hardly a secretary to government level local officer was seen in the civil secretariat but today there were as many as 27 local IAS and KAS officers holding the position of Financial Commissioner, Principal Secretary and Secretary to Government. Recently as many as six important departments like education, tourism, housing and urban development and health were given under the independent charge of local officers. In the police department also local officers hold important positions today. With this scenario obtaining in the civil and police administration, the local officers have to prove their mettle and deliver. there is no room now for the blame for inefficiency being put at the door of the government for ignoring local officers in the decision making process. My government has changed the tradition and given local officers the responsibilities of development and progress of the State. They have to prove worthy of the trust the government has reposed in them. Restructuring of the KAS cadre recently was aimed at bringing local officers on the centre stage of policy and decision making in the State. The officers should emulate missionaries in the service to people although they do not get perks and promotions and often have to work in climatically and politically hostile environment, their dedication to their mission could be a guiding force for the government employees who were paid for their job. The government officials should consider themselves fortunate that they had been chosen to serve the people and receive remuneration for the services as well. I have already issued instructions to the Chief Secretary and the General Administration Department to stop posting of non-cadre officers on cadre posts. The issue of common seniority for KAS is also under consideration of the government. the Government would constitute a Cabinet Sub- Committee to look into the demands of the Association and also come up within six months with a concrete proposal on tacking the problem of unemployment. (Excerpts from CM's speech at a convention of KAS officers in Srinagar on July 30, 2007)

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making authority is consolidated in the hands of local bureaucrats whether they are from IAS or KAS. Out of the 24 key departments, the administrative secretaries of 19 are from Jammu and Kashmir. If one major thing for which National Conference regime always earned the peoples' wrath is that Dr Farooq Abdullah made his bureaucracy most powerful with all significant and decision making positions manned by the IAS officers drawn from several other states. Officers from Jammu and Kashmir, even if they belonged to the IAS, were kept for the fringe operations while those from Bihar and Haryana called the shots. Farooq's cabinet ministers hardly minced any words in saying that they often found it difficult seeking an audience with the Chief Secretary Ashok Jaitley and CM's Principal Secretary BR Singh. The then Chief Secretary popularly known as Tony would keep the legislators waiting for even months to finally grant them an interview. When Mufti Mohammad Sayeed took over as Chief Minister in 2002 he probably had read the pulse carefully. Mufti's regime saw the return of the post of Chief Secretary to a native officer after a decade long staggering gap. Initially seen as a leader of Kashmir centric vision, Mufti picked up Sudhir Singh Bloeria –a native of Kathua district in Jammu region –as his Chief Secretary. A Kashmiri KAS officer Nayeem Akhter, completely sidelined during NC regime, was elevated as Secretary in Chief Minister's Office and another Kashmiri IAS officer Iqbal Khandey took over as Principal Secretary to CM. At present BR Kundal –a native of Jammu is the Chief Secretary. He superceded at least two seniors to reach the top bureaucratic seat in the civil secretariat. Kundal had taken over from C Phunsog -an IAS officer from Ladakh

who retired in October 2007. Interestingly, Phunsog had earlier replaced Vijay Bakaya –a Kashmiri –who had taken over from Sudhir Singh Bloeria. This is how the seat of the top bureaucrat has been shifting from one region to another in a regionally polarized state after the ouster of National Conference government headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah. It is noteworthy that when Phunsog was appointed Chief Secretary in 2006, he superseded at least two of his seniors. However, one of them –Amit Kushari of West Bengal –sought premature retirement while the other one –B R Singh of Haryana –went to the media with his dissent and later proceeded on a protest leave and simultaneously applied for premature retirement. Things are almost the same in Police department. Last year, the state cabinet, in a surprise decision, appointed Kuldeep Khoda –a Kashmiri IPS officer –as Director General of the state Police. Khoda's appointment as DGP yet again had two interesting angles. First, that there was no other post higher than the rank of DGP where the then incumbent Gopal Sharma –a native of Rajasthan –could have been posted. Therefore, for a while he was adjusted as Security Advisor to the Chief Minister till Union Home Ministry arranged a suitable posting for him. Second, as was the case with the appointment of Chief Secretary in 2006, Khoda too superseded at least one senior officer to take over as DGP. Therefore, Khoda's senior PS Gill –a Punjabi –was appointed as Transport Commissioner in the rank and status of DGP. While Mufti had localized the Chief Minister's Secretariat and the top bureaucratic position of Chief Secretary, his predecessor Azad has gone down to level of districts to see that all key positions are manned by the local officers. In some cases the merit has been overlooked but the Chief Minister has been selling his scheme hard which is

Epilogue Ø 14 × March 2008

finding takers in the public. Not only that Azad has localized the bureaucracy, he has taken care that the local communities, regions and sub regions too get due representation in the decision making process. Though officers from the Scheduled Castes have often found chances to serve at important positions in administration but it is perhaps first time in the history that a member from the marginal tribe of Gujjars too has become a Deputy Commissioner. “Problems in Jammu and Kashmir are peculiar and officer from Bihar or Maharashtra can neither understand these problems nor have any stakes in the local issues”, says Abdul Aziz Zargar a veteran politician and Minister for Agriculture. “We need to have local officers at forefront of things and that is the real healing touch to the bruised people”, he adds. The two coalition partners –Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party –despite being shareholders in power have been fighting on a variety of issues. However, there appears a complete consensus between the two on strengthening the KAS and giving local officers key responsibilities. With the political mood in favour of the locals, the KAS officers too have organized themselves to press for more. They have got their cadre restructured and are now asking for promotion avenues parallel to the IAS officers so as to reach the positions of Financial Commissioners and Principal Secretaries to the Government. The Chief Minister recently said, “the KAS cadre has been re-structured creating more promotion avenues for the local officers who would now be posted on important administrative positions”. He said for the first time in 60 years, there were as many as 14 local officers independently heading different departments in civil secretariat. Their cadre strength was increased by 130. “Steps are also taken for their training in prestigious institutes of the country to change their outlook and broaden their horizon”, says the CM. At present barring some key departments

R E P O R T S LAND OF RISING SONS

like Home and Finance almost all major departments are independently headed by the local officers are administrative secretaries. The departments directly connected with the people like Health, Education, Public Works, Revenue, Tourism, Rural Development, Industries etc all have local officers as administrative secretaries. Except for few officers like Khurshid Ahmed Ganai, the Principal Secretary GAD and Mohammad Iqbal Khandey, the Principal Secretary Planning and Development, Anil Goswami, Principal Secretary in CM Office almost all administrative secretaries are drawn from the state services. Even though the political leadership claims that the officers from state services have been given assignments as measure of local empowerment but there is another reason also which gives the local officers a chance to serve at top positions. As many as 20 out of the total 55 directly recruited IAS officers (including those from home state) are currently on central deputation. Against the sanctioned strength of 110, there are at present 96 IAS officers in Jammu and Kashmir (including two probationers). Out of these 96 officers, 43 are by promotion from the state services and

55 are through direct recruitment. 40 of the directly recruited IAS officers of J&K cadre are drawn from different states while only 15 are native of this state. The ratio of IAS officers to the local officers is already low in Jammu and Kashmir. Under a special dispensation, the ratio of civil services here is maintained on the basis of 50:50 instead of 67:33 in other states –which means 67 per cent from the All India Services and 33 per cent from the local services. Before this dispensation comes to end this year, the Chief Minister is reported to have already written to the Prime Minister for further extension in 50:50 patterns. “Chief Minister has written to Prime Minister to extend the special dispensation of 50 percent quota to the All India Services in the state for a further period of five years”, says former Chief Secretary C Phunsog. This, he said, would provide an opportunity for a large number of officers of the state service to get inducted into the IAS. It may be mentioned here that administration in Jammu and Kashmir continued to be manned by the local officers till 1958 when All India Services were first extended to this state by an

amendment in Article 312 of the Constitution of India. The Jammu and Kashmir Administrative Service was initially constituted in 1962 and re-structured in 1965 then in 1976 and 1983 to broad base its cadre base by adding 11 feeding services which were subsequently increased to 18 from the four services in 1965. There had not been any career review of the KAS since 1997. The KAS Officers Association took up the issue with the government and following this, the establishment-cum-selection committee considered proposals of the GAD on career review and with the approval of Chief Minister it placed recommendations before the state cabinet which approved a much more expanded cadre. The duty posts in the cadre of the service have been enhanced from 318 to 406, the number of super time scale from 5 to 10, special scale from 34 to 72 and selection scale from 103 to 120. This is expected to accelerate the progression of the members of the service on a scale never witnessed before. Feedback : zafar.choudhary@epilogue.in

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Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu Monthly Zafar Choudhary Yes Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu 4. Zafar Choudhary Yes Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu 5. Zafar Choudhary Yes Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu 6. Zafar Choudhary CMRD Publications and Communications Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu I, Zafar Choudhary, hereby declare that the particulars given above are true to the best of my knowledge and belief. Sd/Zafar Choudhary Publisher

Date : March 1, 2008

Epilogue Ø 15 × March 2008

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PAKISTAN ELECTION

Pakistan Elections 2008 What was the outcome of 2008 elections ? Who were the leading political parties ? How did they perform in the National Assembly and the Provincial Assemblies? What were the results of 2002 elections and who were the leading political parties then ? How has the situation changed and what are the major lessons in 2008 elections? A group of keen Pakistan watchers D SUBA CHANDRAN, REKHA CHAKRAVARTHI & DEVYANI SRIVASTVA bring the exclusive reportage and indepth analysis on return of democracy in our neighbourhood

his is not the first election that Pakistan has voted and certainly this is unlikely to be the last one. But, it is certainly an important one. If there is a hall of fame for Pakistan elections, this would certainly go as the third most important in Pakistan's electoral history after the elections of 1970 and 1988. Why this election is important and be considered the third important one? Like the two previous important elections of 1970 and 1988, this election also follows after a long direct and indirect military rule. It is pertinent to underline that it was in 1970, for the first time people of Pakistan walked to an electoral booth to directly choose their representatives. Though the country faced a military defeat and a violent break up immediately after the elections, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto became the undisputed leader and the first elected Prime Minister of Pakistan. And his Pakistan's Peoples Party, the first mass based party. Though the Muslim League existed, by 1970s, it was a pale shadow of what Jinnah had founded. Had Jinnah been alive, it is highly unlikely whether he could have recognized the Muslim League in the 1970s or even contested as a part of it. Though the first elected assembly lasted its full term, the second elections only resulted in instability, ultimately resulting in the military taking over. Zia ul Haq, Bhuto's hand picked Chief of Army Staff, not only over threw his mentor and put him in jail, but also made sure he never came back alive. Bhutto was hanged; along with him died the first wave of democracy in Pakistan.

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What followed was a decade, that sowed the seeds of all of Pakistan's ills that it is facing t o d a y. Z i a u l H a q systematically attempted to wipe off the mainstream secular democratic parties, especially the PPP. The growth of religious parties, sectarian violence, use of jihad as foreign policy in Afghanistan, a highly secretive nuclear weapons programme and the deliberate abuse of the Durand Line – the bad list of Pakistan's contemporary troubles were systematically sowed and deliberately grown. When the second wave of democracy started in Pakistan, the trouble in Afghanistan was far from over. Zia was killed in air crash and the military was in a dilemma whether to go ahead with the elections or proceed with controlling the polity. Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan and led the PPP to an outstanding victory in 1988. The elections of 1988 were the second most important, for it witnessed the return of democracy and also the return of PPP. 2008 elections are the third most important in Pakistan's electoral history precisely for the above mentioned reasons. Nearly after a decade of direct and indirect military rule, this election has just witnessed the return of democracy and also the return of the PPP.

Elections: Free and Fair?

ow free and fair the elections were? Many expected that these elections would be rigged, given the electoral history under Pervez Mushrraf. A Presidential election and a referendum, general elections of 2002 and local bodies election of 2005 – all of them were highly rigged in different ways.

voters for the 2008 elections would be 77 million. However, according to this Election Commission's new list, there are only 52 million voters. Where did the 25 million voters go?

Besides, Musharraf and the PML-Q used the local government functionaries effectively to organize support for certain candidates. The The electoral process running up to 18 Nazims owe their allegiance to Musharraf to February elections – were dotted with PML-Q, for they have been created in the controversies and confusions. It all started aftermath of 2005 local elections. They were with the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary, the used in siphoning off the development funds Chief Justice of Pakistan in March 2007. It was to favor a particular candidate. Besides, the a clear blow to the independent nature of political parties accused the Pakistan's judiciary and was Nazims for playing a aimed at keeping it weak decisive role in choosing the and under control. Clearly, It was in this backdrop the re tu rn i n g a n d p olli n g the move to gag the officers and also for judiciary was a strategy, elections were held on instrumental in picking up carefully crafted to steal February 18. However, police officials in their the elections. With an respective constituencies. independent and impartial Iftikhar Chaudhary leading the Supreme Court, it was essential to demolish any future judicial interventions. If the sacking of Chaudhary in March 2007 was a beginning, Musharraf's arbitrary removal of 60 judges from the Supreme and High Courts, was aimed at keeping the judiciary weak.

despite accusations of rigging and voters not being allowed to vote, the elections were free of any large-scale manipulations. Thus, the polling, certainly was relatively free and fair.

The performance of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) during the pre-election period was hardly encouraging. It was far from being independent and impartial. The ECP, though consisted of five members and the Chief Election Commissioner, it was severely handicapped. In terms of the numbers, only half of the members were nominated. According to the 2002 elections, the number of eligible voters was 72 million; taking into account the population growth, it was expected that the number of eligible

Epilogue Ø 17 × March 2008

It was in this backdrop the elections were held on February 18. However, despite accusations of rigging and voters not being allowed to vote, the elections were free of any large-scale manipulations. Thus, the polling, certainly was relatively free and fair. Even, in terms of violence, there were occasional events, that are generally assiocaited with the electoral culture in South Asia.

Given the fact that Benazir Bhutto, leader of the PPP was assassinated in an electoral rally and there were at least two suicide bombs during the campaign by other parties as well, one expected large scale violence on 18 February. Perhaps, in one of those rare occasions, Musharraf did deliver, what he had promised earlier. By and large, 18 February was peaceful and there were no large scale violence.

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National and Provincial Assemblies : An Overview

akistan is a federation of four provinces, a capital territory and federally administered tribal areas. At the national level, Pakistan elects a bicameral legislature – the Parliament of Pakistan – which comprises of a President and two Houses – a 100member Senate and a 342-member National Assembly whose members are chosen by elected provincial legislators. The Prime Minister of Pakistan is elected by the National Assembly, while the President is elected by the Electoral College of Pakistan consisting of both houses of Parliament together with the provincial assemblies. The National Assembly draws its seats from Islamabad – the federal capital, Balochistan, NWFP, Punjab, Sindh, and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Figure 1: Provinces of Pakistan

Muslims. Members of the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies are directly elected by voting in a constituency. Women and minorities'

Province/Area

Federal Capital

minorities' seats are distributed among the parties in proportion to the overall seats secured by them. (See Table 1, 2 & 3) The Election Commission of Pakistan

Table 1: Number of Seats for Senate General Seats Seats reserved for Women Technocrats and Ulema 2 1 1

Total

Punjab

Sindh

NWFP

FATA

Balochistan

Total

100

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Senate)

Table 2: Number of Seats for National Assembly Province/Area

Seats reserved for

General Seats

Federal Capital

Women

Total

Non Muslims

Punjab

148

183

Sindh

NWFP

FATA

Balochistan Total

272

75 10

43 12 17

332+10=342

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#National)

Table 3: Number of Seats for Provincial Assemblies Province

General Seats

(Map modified. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Image:Pakistan_New_Provinces.gif

Seats reserved for Women

Total

Non Muslims

Punjab

297

371

The Senate consists of 100 members including 17 seats reserved for women & 17 seats reserved for technocrats and Ulema.

Sindh

130

168

NWFP

124

Balochistan

The National Assembly consists of 342 seats from Islamabad (Federal Capital), Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and Balochistan including 60 seats reserved for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims. The Provincial Assemblies consists of 728 seats including 128 seats reserved for women and 23 seats reserved for non-

Total

577

128

728

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Provincial)

seats in the National Assembly are calculated in accordance with the formula given in the Constitution. The parties are given women seats in proportion to the general seats won in each province. The 10 reserved

Epilogue Ø 18 × March 2008

(ECP) is responsible for conducting free and fair elections. The ECP is constituted by the President and consists of five members – a retired Supreme Court justice and a serving high court judge from each province.

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2002 Elections: An Overview

n the 2002 elections, the PML-Q gained maximum number of seats and formed the government with allies including the MQM and MMA. Like the 2008 elections, no party won a majority even in the 2002 elections. The PMLQ bagged 76 seats, the PPP won 62, MMA 45, PML-N 14, and independents won 26. The PML-Q secured 17 reserved seats for women in the National Assembly and 26 seats in the Punjab Assembly, PPP won 14 and 16 seats while the PML-N got 3 and 9 seats. Elections in 2002 were considered largely rigged with Musharraf and the PML-Q resorting to unfair tactics thereby reducing the chances of PPP and PML-N in gaining a majority.

National Assembly Party Position No. of Seats (incl reserved seats)

% of Seats Won

33.82% 118 23.16% 80

16.54% 59 5.15%

4.78%

1.47% 5

PML-Q

PPP

MMA

PML-N

MQM

PLM-F

Who Voted for Whom?

witnessed the exit of the religious parties' alliance – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) from 59 seats in the NA to a mere 7 seats and this, in fact, has been the greatest achievement of the 2008 elections. Maulana Fazlur Rahman, leader of the Jamait-e-Ulema-e-Islami lost the one seat he was contesting; the defeat of MMA has resulted in the party losing control in NWFP and Balochistan provincial assemblies.

he lower house of Pakistan's Parliament has 342 seats, out of which 272 were directly elected by the people from four provinces, Islamabad and FATA. On 18 February, elections were held in 268 constituencies out of the total 272; in those four provinces elections have been postponed due to excessive violence and the death of candidates. Of these two belong to the tribal areas and the other two were Larkana and Lahore-II. While the large-scale violence in FATA region has resulted in the postponement in the first two, assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the killing of a PML-N candidate have resulted in postponing the elections in Larkana and Lahore-II respectively.

National Assembly Party Position No. of Seats (incl reserved seats) 25.30% 84

Epilogue Ø 19 × March 2008

2.30%

1.50%

In d/ O th er s

The PML-Q managed to win just 41 seats in the National Assembly. The elections also

M LF

M Q M

M LQ P

M LN

9.70% 3.80%

7.20%

M M A

% of Seats W on

15.50%

113

A N

33.20%

Out of these 268 constituencies, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) emerged as the single largest party winning 88 seats from all the four provinces. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has emerged as the second largest party in the NA with 67 seats to its credit. The King's Party (PML-Q), that gained the maximum numbers of seats in the 2002 elections, suffered a crushing defeat with almost the entire previous cabinet – including 22 former ministers – facing humiliating losses.

The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) won 19 general seats, all from Sindh, and the Awami National Party won 10 seats in NWFP thereby promising a much needed peace and stability that were denied to the province during the reign on the MMA.

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The polls had predicted 12 per cent vote for the PML-Q, 22 per cent for the PML-N, and 50 per cent for the PPP. While the PPP's vote bank looks impressive, it is far from what was predicted and on the

other hand PML-N scored massive victories in most of Punjab. At the outset, looking at the trends from 2002 and 2008, it is clear that the present

M ajor Political Parties - No. of Seats Won Year 02

Year 08

118

113 84

55 25

PPP

PML-N

PML-Q

MQM

MMA

ANP

23.16%

Year 08

33.82%

33.20% 25.30%

16.54%

15.50% 7.20% 4.78%

5.15%

PPP

PML-N

PML-Q

Party

The biggest triumph of the 2008 elections has been the fall of religious extremists (MMA) from 59 seats in 2002 to a skimpy 7 seats in 2008. The Taliban movement in Pakistan has been vetoed by the people; consequently does this mean the end of Islamism in Pakistan? The Awami National Party, on the other hand, has allied with the PPP to form a government in the much troubled NWFP. Owing to its secular stance the ANP appears, at least for now, to be the biggest winner this election.

PPP: Back in Action

Major Political Parties - % of Seats Won Year 02

election has had a pro-democratic leaning, with the PPP and the PML-N performing better than they did in the 2002 elections. However, a closer analysis reveals that the 2008 elections have been more anti-Musharraf and antiMMA than reflecting a complete democratic stance with no single party securing a majority.

MQM

2.30% 3.80% 1.13% MMA

ANP

Total Votes Secured 2002

2008

PPP

7,277,794

10,588,168

PML-N

3,314,603

6,759,711

PML-Q

7,567,753

7,901,492

MQM

926,116

2,571,184

MMA

3,329,325

751,087

ANP

324,649

699,517

Epilogue Ă&#x2DC; 20 Ă&#x2014; March 2008

fter the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the PPP was predicted to win 50 per cent of the seats considering the pro-Benazir sympathy wave that the party had intended to cash on. Though the results did not place the PPP as an undisputed political party, February 18 election has certainly revived its clout in all the four provinces. Consider the following figures. The PPP has won 45 seats in Punjab. It is certainly a record, considering its performance in Punjab during the last three or four elections. In 1997 and 2002 elections, the PPP performed very badly in Punjab. In fact, many considered that the PPP was totally wiped off from Punjab, given its declining electoral strength. February 18, has certainly changed the trend for the PPP. It has got PPP back into business in Punjab. Besides winning 45 seats for the National Assembly from Punjab, it has also won 77

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seats for the Punjab provincial Assembly. In fact, the PPP is the second largest party today in the Punjab provincial assembly after the PML-N. Nawaz's PML-N has won 102 seats for the Punjab provincial assembly, followed by PPP's 64. PML-Q, which ruled Punjab could secure only 64 seats for the provincial assembly. In Sindh, the PPP has emerged as the undisputed leader in rural areas. Though the PPP has failed to make a dent in urban Sindh, especially Karachi, the party has managed to secure 29 seats for the National Assembly, out of the total 61 seats. If the elections are held for Larkana, one is sure it would increase the tally to 30. Thus winning half of the total seats allocated for the National Assembly from Sindh.

Besides, the PPP has also won 66 seats for the Sindh Provincial Assembly, out of the total 125 seats. The PPP can form a government on its own Sindh. It has almost bulldozed the PML-Q from Sindh. The former rulers could manage only 5 seats for the National Assembly and 10 for the Sindh provincial assembly. In NWFP, PPP's performance is certainly laudatory, given the declining support in the recent elections and also the fact Sherpao faction has made a considerable dent in its electoral strength. In 2008, out of the total 35 seats for the National Assembly from the NWFP, the PPP has secured ten seats, equaling the record of the Awami National Party (ANP), which has also secured the same number of seats. More importantly, the

PML-N: The Brothers Strike Back

or the Sharif brothers, it was as if the history was repeating in Punjab almost after ten years. In 1997, the Sharif brothers led the PML-N to an unprecedented victory in the electoral history of Pakistan. Consider the 1997 figures: The PML-N secured 137 seats for the National Assembly from all the four provinces. In Punjab it won almost 60 percent of the total votes polled resulting in becoming the undisputed party at the national level, relegating the PPP to a regional force in Sindh. In 2002, however, the situation totally changed for the Sharif brothers. They were exiled and they saw their party being manipulated and split by Pervez Musharraf, then the Chief of Army Staff and the President of Pakistan. The result was even more spectacular. In 2002 elections, the Sharif brothers lost Punjab and also lost their own party! The PML-N could secure only 19 seats for the National Assembly. The PML-N, undoubtedly, was resurrected back into Pakistan politics winning almost 4 times more than it did in 2002. Fading back into pavilion with just 18 seats in 2002, Nawaz Sharif's PML-N secured 84 seats in total. More importantly, the PML-N has won 102 seats for the Punjab provincial assembly and thus being in an ideal position to form the next government there. Thus the non-performance of the PML-N in Sindh and Balochistan, has been sort of compensated with its better performance in Punjab. Both in Sindh and Balochistan, the PML-N had failed to win even a single seat for the National Assembly, though it has won four seats from the NWFP.

PPP has emerged the second largest party in the NWFP provincial assembly with 18 seats. The ANP has secured maximum seats – 29 for the provincial assembly. In Balochistan, the largest province of Pakistan, but with smallest number of seats for the National Assembly, the PPP has emerged the most successful. Of the total 14 seats reserved for the National Assembly, the PPP has won four seats, while the PML-Q has won only three and the MMA two. Besides, the PPP has also won seven seats for the Balochistan provincial assembly. Certainly, with 88 seats from all over Pakistan, the resurgence of the PPP is the most successful story of February 2008 elections.

MMA: Fall of the Religious Elements

f PPP and PML-N are two great success stories of 2008 election, the MMA along with the PML-Q are the two great failures. A non-entity electorally, but with significant street power, the rise of religious political parties under the banner of Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal was spectacular in 2002 elections. For the very first time in the electoral history of Pakistan, the religious parties were able to secure 16 percent of the total votes polled for the National Assembly. In terms of seats, it was translated into 59 seats in the Parliament, thus becoming the opposition party, again for the first time in the history of Pakistan. What is even more spectacular after the 2002 elections, was the fact the religious parties were able to form governments in two provinces – NWFP, on their own and in Balochistan along with the PML-Q. The fall of MMA, in 2008 elections was as spectacular as its rise after in 2002. The fall of the MMA, in fact started much before the 2008 elections. The decline had in fact started when the two major components of the MMA – Jamaat-e-Islami led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed and the JUI led by Fazlur Rehman, developed differences amongst them. Ironically, the reason was Pervez Musharraf. Qazi Husaain Ahmed wanted to withdraw the support of the MMA in the National Assembly, when Musharraf failed to give up his uniform in 2006. Qazi wanted the MMA to resign both from the National Assembly and

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also from the NWFP, whereas Fazlur Rehman was against that idea. After the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary and the beginning of the entire judicial crisis in Pakistan, Qazi wanted to boycott the elections, unless the judiciary was restored to its pre-March 2007 position. When JUI-F decided to go ahead with taking part in elections, the MMA of 2002 was almost dead. The February 18 elections only finalized the formalities. Fazlur Rehman seriously mis-calculated the popular mood in the NWFP. Give the fact the pashtun community was extremely angry with the ongoing War against Terrorism and upset with Pervez Musharraf, he expected his party had a good chance to repeat the 2002 performance, at least in the NWFP. Besides the above two factors, he was also aware the frontier province was brimming with anti-US feelings, which he was sure would get converted into votes for his JUI-F. Those anti-Musharraf and anti-US feelings did convert into votes; unfortunately not for the MMA, but for the ANP, the secular and moderate political party. Consider the following numbers, for it would tell the tale of a mighty fall. From 59 seats in 2002 elections, the MMA could only secure only five seat for the National Assembly – three from NWFP and two from Balochistan. Had the regional political parties in Balochistan decided to take part in the elections, the MMA would not have secured those two seats also from there. For the provincial assembly of NWFP, the MMA could secure only 8 seats, gaining less than one sixth of what it got in 2002 election. The fact that Maluana Fazlur Rahman lost the election in Dera Ismail Khan in NWFP itself will tell the story of how the fortunes of the MMA have turned this time.

Provincial Roundup-I

Punjab: Return of the Brothers

he Punjab Assembly has maximum seats in Pakistan - 371, including 8 seats reserved for non-Muslims and 66 for women. Punjab province also holds the key for the National Assembly with 183 seats including 35 reserved for women. Punjab determines which political party will form the government in Islamabad and this is mainly due to the huge disparity in the size of populations in the four provinces. Punjab alone accounts for 55 per cent of seats; when compared with it, Sindh accounts only for 25 per cent, while NWFP and Balochistan account for 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

2008 Provincial Assembly Elections Ind/Others, 35 MMA, 2 PML-N, 104 PML-Q, 68

PPP, 79

2002 Provincial Assembly Elections Ind/Others, 40

PML-N, 38

MMA, 9 PPP, 62

Punjab has been the hub of power in Pakistan; in the 1970s, the PPP and the Muslim League were the two dominating parties, while in PML-Q, 131 1997, the PML under Nawaz Sharif emerged as the single dominant stellar performance in Punjab. party in Punjab completely eclipsing the PPP. In 2002, the PML-Q swept through Punjab winning 131 seats in the provincial In 2002, the Muslim League split into assembly elections securing Musharraf's PML-Q and PML-N and so did the pro-Establishment PML-Q a hearty win votes in Punjab. The PML-Q won 131 whereas in 2008 Punjab voted against seats out of the 297. The PML-Q won Establishment. The PML-Q managed to 68 general seats from Punjab win only 68 seats in the Punjab Assembly whereas the PPP won 35 general in the current elections. seats from Punjab and PML-N won PML-N, contrary to pre-poll predictions, just 14 general seats from Punjab. scored massive victories in most of The trend has changed again in Punjab enabling it to emerge as the 2008, with both the PPP and PML-Q second largest party with 67 general securing 79 and 104 assembly seats seats in the National Assembly. PML-N and 45 and 59 out of 147 seats in the won 104 seats in the Punjab Assembly as National Assembly. Nawaz's fierce compared to the 2002 elections wherein anti-establishment stance and the it barely managed to win 38 seats and a PPP's party manifesto of being prototal of 18 seats in the National poor including the pro-Benazir Assembly. sympathy wave resulted in their

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Provincial Roundup-II

Sindh: The Land of Bhuttos

indh, in terms of seat for the National and provincial assemblies, is the second largest in Pakistan. It has 61 elected seats for the National Assembly and 125 for the provincial assembly. In 2002, the PMLQ was able to get a sizeable number of seats – both for the provincial and national assemblies from Sindh.

2008 Provincial Assembly Elections

ANP, 2 MQM, 38

PPP, 68 PML-Q, 10

Following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, PPP emerged as the single largest party in the Sindh assembly winning 68 seats. PPP also won the most National Assembly seats in the Sindh province with 29 seats. The Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) led by Altaf Hussain, living in exile in London was able to repeat its 2002 performance. In fact, it is the only party among the ruling coalition, which has succeeded in retaining the seats it had in 2002. Both the PML-Q and MMA which ruled respective provinces failed miserably both at

2002 Provincial Assembly Elections

MQM, 32

PPP, 51 MMA, 8 PML-Q, 11

national and provincial levels. The MQM secured 38 seats for the Sindh

provincial assembly and 19 seats for the National Assembly. However, the winning streak of the MQM is limited only to urban Sindh, especially Karachi. In rural Sindh, it is yet to make an impact. 17 of its 19 seats for the National Assembly has been won in 2008 from Karachi. Even for the Sindh provincial assembly, out of the total 42 seats it has won, 35 are from Karachi. The MQM, certainly could be called the King of Karachi. On the contrary, the PML-Q was ousted in Sindh with just 10 seats in the provincial assembly in spite of the fact that it ruled the province prior to the elections in alliance with the MQM and PML-F. PPP's performance was no surprise since the party was predicted to win with huge margins when compared to other parties because of the sympathy wave triggered by Benazir's assassination. The PML-N failed to win even a single seat while the ANP won 2 seats. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) boycotted the elections.

Provincial Roundup-III

Balochistan : Saving PML-Q’s Grace

alochistan proved to be the PMLQ's saving grace in 2008 elections wherein the party emerged as the single largest party bagging 18 of the 51

seats. The MMA which had won 12 seats in the 2002 elections managed to win only 7 seats this time. The PPP made its comeback in Balochistan winning 7 seats

as compared to the 2 seats in 2002 provincial elections. Similar to the NWFP, independents emerged as the second largest group securing 11 seats.

2002 Provincial Assembly Elections 2008 Provincial Assembly Elections

MMA 13 MMA 7

PML-Q 11

ANP 2 PML-Q 18

PPP 2 PPP 7

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Provincial Roundup-IV

NWFP: Re-emergence of the Regional Forces

n terms of seats, NWFP is the third largest. It has 35 seats for the National Assembly and 99 seats for the NWFP provincial assembly.

In 2008, the most stunning victory was for the ANP in NWFP followed by the PPP, thereby ousting the MMA. The ANP won 31 seats for the provincial assembly as compared to 10 seats it won in 2002 elections. The independents, with 20 seats, emerged as the second largest group 2002 Provincial Assembly Elections in the assembly. The MMA 46 PML-N retained its number winning 5 seats in both 2008 and 2002 elections ANP 10 PPP 8 while the PML-Q was PML-Q 6 PML-N 5 one down with 5 seats as compared to its 6 seats in 2002. The PPP rose from 8 2008 Provincial Assembly Elections seats in 2002 to win ANP 31 17 in the current assembly elections, PPP 17 thereby emerging as the second largest MMA 10 PML-Q 5 PML-N 5 party in the province. The sixparty religious No. of Seats alliance (MMA) s u f f e r e d a humiliating defeat in the province with just 10 seats, while it ruled the roost with 46 seats in 2002 provincial elections. It was comeback time for both the ANP and the PPP in the province, signifying reform and stability in the region. The ANP regained in its former strongholds of Peshawar, Nowshera, Charsadda and also won all the seats in Swat and Buner district. The PPP also gained in Peshawar, Nowshera, Upper Dir, Lower Dir and Malakand. JI's boycotting of the elections confined the competition between the ANP and the PPP in the province. Both the parties secured 10 seats out of the 35 National Assembly seats in the province. Adding more fuel to the fire was JUIF leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman's loss to a PPP candidate in his home constituency of Dera Ismail Khan.

The Torturous Roads Ahead

ebruary 18 was only a beginning. Pakistan has a long way to go. Much would depend on how the leading political parties – PPP and PML-N would respond to each other and rise to the occasion. Following a period of deadlock and hard negotiations immediately after the elections, the PPP and the PML-N agreed to form a coalition government at the national level. With 84 seats of the PNL-N and 113 seats of the PPP, the two parties together enjoy a substantial majority in the national assembly; the PML-Q – which has emerged as the biggest loser in the election – is the third largest party in the assembly, thereby constituting the main opposition. Amidst a rare atmosphere of camaraderie, the two parties have resolved resolve to work towards strengthening democracy in Pakistan. They further pledged to not cooperate with any pro-Musharraf parties or religious parties within Pakistan. The coming together of the two biggest parties of Pakistan, who were till date each other's biggest rival, is a moment of historic significance. Strong mistrust has marked their political relations since 1988 and both have used the military to oust the other party in power. Zardari spent eight years in prison under Sharif facing charges of murder and corruption. The two parties have decided to put their old politics behind and “work together to uphold the democratic values and traditions and the supremacy of the judiciary.” However, the two parties have to cover a large distance between them. While a common goal of strengthening the democratic forces within Pakistan has united the two parties, significant differences persist on their stand on some of the important national issues. Challenge 1:

Revival of Democracy and Restoring Judiciary The foremost issue is that of establishing and strengthening democratic forces within Pakistan. While both the parties are committed to fighting for democracy in Pakistan, there are fundamental differences in the philosophical thrust of their understanding of democracy. According to the PML-N, “true democracy is based on a sovereign parliament, independent judiciary and free and fair electoral process.” Accordingly, the PML-N adopts an institutional approach towards strengthening democracy in Pakistan – it calls upon re-establishing the supremacy of the parliament, restoring an independent judiciary, ensuring maximum provincial autonomy through

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decentralisation of administrative and financial powers and limiting the role of the armed forces as laid out in Pakistan's constitution. The strategy of the party is to work as a bulwark against the military. The PPP on the other hand understands democracy as a “commitment to freedom and fundamental rights, including freedom from hunger and want.”

other hand lays greater emphasis on an economic policy driven by the market forces and the businessmen. These differing values and priorities have already begun to create ripples between the two parties in their various demands. The judicial crisis of Pakistan since the launch of the lawyer's movement in March last year and the issue of restoring an independent judiciary has evoked different reactions within the two parties.

The PPP aims at creating a just and equitable society with equal opportunity for all its citizens. It regards the guarantee of the fundamental and basic rights of every citizen as its prime objective, and therefore commits itself to the principle of 5 E's – employment, education, energy, environment and equality. In political science parlance therefore, the PML-N adopts a 'topdown' approach to reform whereas the PPP symbolises the 'bottoms-up' approach. This fundamental difference in democratic values underlines their economic objectives as well. For the PPP, “social policy objectives drive economic policy whereby development shall be measured in terms of welfare of the people rather than in terms of financial statistics.” The PML-N on the

The PML-N has been very aggressive in its demand for reinstating of the deposed judges and has pledged to initiate a number of reforms of the judicial system that include among others reform in the appointment of judges. The main driving factor behind the PML-N's insistence on the deposed judge's issue is to get the President ousted by a reinstated Supreme Court. This has put tremendous pressure on the PPP whose stand on the deposed judge's issue has been at best ambiguous. The PPP would rather seek a constitutional solution to the crisis than

postpone it indefinitely by restoring the judges. Political analysts of Pakistan posit that the party's attitude towards the judiciary in general and the deposed judges in particular is based on its historical experience. However, since the issue enjoys tremendous civil society support, it is likely that the PML-N will get its way on this issue, especially considering that the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) president, Mr Aitzaz Ahsan, has given the two mainstream parties the task of reinstating the judges before 8 March, or else face a Long March of lawyers and civil society activists to Islamabad against them. Notwithstanding the lawyers euphoria, the matter is also tricky on legal grounds for since the lawyers consider the emergency order of 3 November as invalid for it was validated by an invalid Supreme Court, analysts have pointed out that the new National Assembly is to take oath under the constitution with a new article added during the time of emergency. This raises questions over the validity of the new national assembly, and is likely to create flutter between the parties in the days to come.

Challenge 2:

What to do with Musharraf?

the President, or else face an impeachment.

oving ahead, another thorny issue between the two parties is the role of the army and the future of President Musharraf. The PML-N has been vociferous in its critique of the role of the military in weakening Pakistan's democratic institutions in the past eight years including the parliament, the judiciary and the electoral process. Nawaz Sharif has demanded the resignation of President Musharraf on the ground that election results have proven the unpopularity of

The PPP on the other hand has been more open to working with President Musharraf especially after he abdicated the post of chief of army staff. The PPP wants to first form the government and then take up the issues in Parliament. Dismissing the idea of impeaching the President, the ViceChairman of PPP, Makhdoom Amin Fahim,

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stated that the transition of power from the military to civilian must be gradual. This issue could push the government in a crisis for, apart from the demand of the PML-N, President Musharraf himself has not given any inclination of stepping down. Although the election verdict has clearly rejected his policies and his supporters, Musharraf still holds considerable sway in the political system of Pakistan, be it in the army, or the

administration. Besides, there will be tremendous pressure from the western countries to retain Musharraf in the scene. However, the popular sentiment in Pakistan is clearly against Musharraf and the new government cannot ignore the public opinion. Moreover, post-elections, Musharraf has resorted to using pressure tactic against a united front and as a result has reinvigorated a Swiss

corruption case against Zardari that had been stalled last year following reconciliation between Bhutto and Musharraf. Such tactics reveal that Musharraf is likely to play on differences between the two parties and create friction between them. At the same time, it also might have the unintended effect of pushing the two parties closer together. Zardari for instance might take a stronger stance against Musharraf following the reopening of the case.

Challenge 3 :

Challenge 4

Jihad against Jihad

Foreign Policy

h e n e x t contentious issue between the two parties is likely to be the fight against terrorism and militancy in Pakistan. The PML-N has indicated a few measures to fight militancy that includes 'the use of force against the foreign and local terrorists and strengthening of the law enforcement agencies.' In addition, it has not ruled out 'a process of political engagement in the tribal areas in order to win the hearts and minds of the people.' The PPP on the other hand while has not enumerated any strategy for fighting militancy directly, has stressed on a number of reforms intended to fight the forces of terrorism such as madrassah reforms, FATA reforms, police reforms, and prison reforms. Analysts have pointed out that this election presents a unique opportunity to defeat terrorism for the main problem with the military operations in Pakistan's northwest and the tribal areas was that it lacked political legitimacy. The Daily times reported that the wide disagreement between the civilian leaders and the military on the course of action against militancy had a deep demoralising effect on the soldiers' morale. The newly appointed government along with the moderate chief of army staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani have a golden opportunity to combine the political and military forces to fight militancy in Pakistan.

oreign Policy is likely to be another area of concern. The main thrust of the PML-N's foreign policy is strengthening of Pakistan's defences in order to maintain peace and stability in the region, and establishment of political and civilian control over Pakistan's foreign policy. It is worthwhile to recall that Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons under Sharif's rule. It is therefore likely that the party will press for a national security state. While the party also stresses upon strengthening relations with other developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, there is no mention of the United States. The US itself is not very comfortable with the resurrection of Sharif to power mainly because of his party's bleak record in the past. For instance, one of the last acts of the PML-N before the military coup in 99 was to try to impose shariah law. Moreover, he is also believed to have regular contact with Osama bin laden and other Saudi terrorist outfits through the 1990s. It is perhaps for this reason that Afghanistan also does not find a mention in the party's foreign policy objectives. The PPP on the other hand underlines good friendly relations with Afghanistan, India, Iran and the Peoples Republic of China as well with the USA, Canada, European Union, Japan and the Commonwealth. Special mention is made of Afghanistan where the PPP envisages a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs and a strict check on cross-border terrorism into Pakistan. The main thrust of PPP's foreign policy is strengthening of social and economic ties with Pakistan's neighbours.

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Challenge 5

Sharing Power in Provinces

n the NWFP, the Awami National Party (ANP) under the leadership of Mr Asfandyar Wali Khan emerged as the single largest party with 31 seats out of the 96 contested where as the PPP secured the second highest with 17 seats. The two parties have reportedly agreed on a power-sharing arrangement in NWFP with the former taking the chief minister's position and the latter getting the offices of senior minister and speaker of the provincial assembly. The PML-N who has secured five seats is also likely to be a part of the coalition. With this verdict, the religious alliance of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) has suffered a crushing defeat (partly due to the boycott of elections by one of its member party, the Jama'at-e-Islami and partly due to the anti-incumbency factor), and the people have rejected the rule of the mullah. Upholding the verdict of the people in favour of Pashtun nationalism, the ANP has promised to change the name of the NWFP province to Pakhtoonkhwa. The ANPs objective and priorities are similar to that of PPP. For instance, the ANP is in favour of a strong federal structure and provincial autonomy and has promised to grant equal rights to all units within the province. It has pledged action for t h e p r o m o t i o n o f d e m o c r a c y, establishment of independent judiciary, freedom of media, abolition of poverty, protection of human rights and socioeconomic and political development. Moreover, it also supports the strengthening of relations with India, China and The US. It has spoken out strongly against Islamic militancy and supports the war on terror. While ANP's victory in the northwest is an important step in the direction of a democratic, secular Pakistan, it must not be flagged as a validation of Pashtun nationalism. It

is important that the newly formed government focus more on its social and economic agenda rather than trying to create a sub-national identity within thte fold of national unity. In Balochistan, despite having been virtually routed in three provinces, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) led by Chaudhary Shujjat Hussain has emerged as the largest single party in the Balochistan assembly, bagging 17 of 51 seats. The performance of the PML-Q in Sindh can be attributed to the boycott of elections called by the Balochistan nationalist parties including the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. It is yet not clear whether the party will form the government on its own or enter into a coalition with the PPP as the latter is divided on the issue of cooperation with a 'pro-Musharraf' party. The party's manifesto revolves around 5 D's namely Democracy, Development, Devolution, Diversity and Defence. It has remained silent on the crucial issue of restoring of an independent judiciary and underlines an independent foreign policy for Pakistan where no foreign country has the right to interfere in Pakistan's internal affairs. The PML-Q faces tremendous challenge in Balochistan not only due to the strong anti-incumbency factor against the party but also because the party has suffered many defections over the past few days. Many of its elected legislators are reportedly looking out for other parties. The PPP on its part might be persuaded to cooperate with the PML-Q in order to create considerable leeway for itself visà-vis the PML-N in the National Assembly. In Sind, the PPP has won enough a staggering 65 seats of total 130 seats,

Epilogue Ø 27 × March 2008

enough to form a government on its own, but has opted to form a coalition along with Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) led by Altaf Hussain that won 38 seats. The main motivating factor behind such a coalition for the PPP is that it wants to take the MQM along in order to ensure peace in Sindh and create new economic opportunities. The MQM on its part has pledged to be a part of the democratic process in Pakistan. Since its inception (as a student movement in the University of Karachi in 1978, and subsequently converting into a political party in 1997), the party has enjoyed large support among the urdu-speaking population of Sindh. This election, the party launched a pro-poor manifesto, similar to the PPP, targeting the downtrodden masses at the national level with a special focus on improving the social and economic condition of Sindh. The party has further called for “complete provincial autonomy, elimination of feudal system, religious militancy and extremism and promised to work for provision of jobs, reduction in poverty through various measures, reforms in education, health sectors and reforms in madarasah and agriculture sector.” Despite a similarity in the objectives with the PPP, an alliance between them is likely to be precarious for various reasons. For one, some of the newly-elected legislators of PPP in Sindh are against any cooperation with the MQM primarily due to the excesses it committed against the party in the last five years. Second, the party was part of the federal government of Musharraf and therefore faces the antiMusharraf sentiment. And lastly, the MQM has gain notoriety over the years for its involvement in terrorist activities especially in Karachi. These factors could create friction in the alliance, but since the PPP enjoys a clear majority in the

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Sindh assembly, the MQM has little leeway in the alliance.

Pakistan, the PML-N has a powerful bargaining card at the centre.

In Punjab, Pakistan Muslim League-N has emerged as the single largest party in the Punjab assembly by securing 102 seats out of 292 seats with the Pakistan People's Party and PML-Q trailing behind with 78 and 66 seats. The PML-N has largely gained votes due to the strong anti-incumbency factor against the former government, the sympathy wave for Bhutto and pro-democratic forces, and to some extent, due to the Jama'ate-Islami boycotting the election, shifting a small percentage of the rightof-centre vote in the urban areas to the PML-N. The PML-Ns manifesto has already been discussed. However, it is important to state here that Punjab being the most important province for

The 2008 elections have gone strongly in favour of the democratic process in Pakistan with the liberal, moderate parties gaining a resounding victory. The PPP in particular has performed well across Pakistan whereas the PML-N has resurged in Punjab. However, it must be noted here that these two parties that are set to forma coalition at the centre have been out of power for almost a decade now. Moreover, they are going to inherit a crumbling economy with soaring fuel and energy prices and high rate of unemployment. Pakistan's tribal areas are in dire need of immediate reform to tackle the growing strength of the Islamic extremists.

Epilogue because there is more to know

Above all, the reputation of the Pakistani state is perhaps at its lowest possible in a long time and the new government must at once shoulder the responsibility of regaining its lost legitimacy. It is very important for the two parties as well as the regional parties to rise above their personal vendettas and vote bank politics and work together for a common goal. The people of Pakistan have given the political parties a unique opportunity to build a strong, democratic and liberal Pakistan, and they must not let this historical moment slip by.

Feedback : suba.chandran@epilogue.in rekha.chakravarthi@epilogue.in devyani.srivastva@epilogue.in

July 2007 Policy Failure June 2007 Looking Beyond “K” May 2007 Peace Process

ARE YOU MISSING YOUR EARLIER STORIES ?

April 2007 PDP-Congress Coalition Schism March 2007 Baglihar February 2007 The Promise Ahead

Write to editor.epilogue@gmail.com Epilogue Ø 28 × March 2008

January 2007 Book of the year

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Return of Democracy?

Madiha Tallat, in Lahore With the results of the 18th February general elections there has been much celebration as the “return of democracy” in Pakistan has been heralded. Apparently there has been a great upheaval, a democratic revolution of sorts which has unseated the king's party replacing it with fervently antiMusharraf leaders. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has surfaced as a truly national force winning a substantial number of seats in all provinces and the centre. This is a heartening sign for the future of provincial cohesion which has eluded Pakistan as of late. Other prominent parties such as the Muslim League-Nawaz have also managed to make their mark with their agenda of the restoration of the judiciary. The response of the voters to such issue based politics is an encouraging sign in a country where voting has more often been done on the basis of parochial identities or under the influence of political patronage. The distancing from these trends is perhaps a result of increasing urbanization and the weakening of caste and clan based ties and bodes well for an increasingly conscientious voter base that is integral in any truly democratic system. Amidst all this few have questioned whether the soon to be formed government will actually be able to throw off the yoke of military control that has prevailed in Pakistani politics for much of its history for despite these positive indicators of democracy many of the most basic issues that have impeded the development of true democracy remain constant. The political wings of intelligence agencies such as the ISI are as much part of the political picture as ever, manipulating and forging artificial alliances to serve their own long term interests. While once elected the commitment of the political leaders to true meaningful

change is questionable as the largest elected party the PPP is showing itself to be all too keen to accept a government with General Musharraf at its helm. This undoubtedly implies an acceptance of many of the president's hugely unpopular policies and casts doubt on their ability to initiate many of the much needed changes for which they were elected and indeed capitalized on in their election campaign. Apparently democratic policies of “Depoliticizing the military” and removing military officials from civilian positions that are being hailed today were also propounded in the late 80's when it is widely excepted now that the military continued its rule from behind the scenes throughout the “democratic” rule in the 1990's with the bureaucracy acting as its henchman. Thus, true political independence cannot be attained without a major harnessing of the militaries ever increasing economic interests that create the impetus for its political maneuvering and provide incentive for the formation of a bureaucratic-military nexus. Moreover, despite jumping through the familiar hoops of democratic procedures such as elections the attainment of a truly substantive democracy that is responsive to the actual plight of the people will require a long and sustained process of electoral politics that will create an atmosphere of political accountability and weed out undesirable candidates, something that has hence far not been possible due to the engineered removal of governments in rapid succession by undemocratic powers. The stage is set as anti-military sentiment is at its peak and formidable pressure groups exist in the shape of the non-contesting parties and an agitated legal community that will hold the new government to its words. Much depends on this government's ability to grapple with the interests of the military and rise

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to the demands of the day. This will determine whether Pakistan will finally be wrestled away from the grips of the military and retuned to the people. The future of the country hangs in the balance. Whither Kashmir? Kashmir has been such an all pervasive part of Pakistan's state policy that it is often said to be a part of Pakistan's national identity. Yet the Kashmir issue was conspicuous for its absence in the election campaign. This lack of attention to Kashmir has been a hallmark of the Musharraf government which all but cut off ISI support to the previously heavily bolstered freedom fighters and washed his hands of the UN resolution on Kashmir. This dramatic change in policy stems perhaps from the presidents desire to be seen as “a man of peace” but a closer look at the issue betrays a strategic distancing on the part of the military which previously used Kashmir as a justification for its high budget allocations and stake in state policy. With the war on terror taking center stage Kashmir is no longer needed to serve this propagandist purpose. What is surprising is that political leaders did not pick on this policy change when they so eagerly capitalized on all other acts of the Musharraf regime. In part the burgeoning food, electricity and internal security crisis is to blame, which took the lime light away from Kashmir and other pressing foreign policy issues. At best it is hoped that the acts of an unrepresentative military leader are not unquestionably and unalterably allowed to change such a fundamental part of Pakistani state policy.

MADIHA TALLAT, based at Lahore, is with the Department for Law and Policy at Lahore University of Management Sciences. Feedback : madiha.tallat@epilogue.in

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Pakistan Elections And India-Pakistan Peace Process Sameer Suryakant Patil The first 'free and fair' general elections of Pakistan on February 18, in as many years augur well for the India-Pakistan peace process. Many had expected that given the massive unpopularity of the Musharraf regime and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-Qaid-eAzam (QA) faction (dubbed the 'King's party), the military would try to rig the outcome and cling on till last minute to the power. However coming as they were after the tragic assassination of the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the general elections have been dubbed as the first step of Pakistani polity towards democracy. Although the contours of the new likely dispensation in Islamabad are still to emerge, a new found optimism is evident with regard to the IndiaPakistan bilateral relationship. This is because any attempt to rig the elections on the part of the Musharraf regime or pro-Musharraf forces would have created further instability in Pakistan which in turn would have been a bigger headache for the Indian establishment. Clearly the stability of Pakistan is a crucial factor for India's foreign policy and also its international standing. In any case, doing business with Pervez Musharraf was kind of a 'necessary evil' for the Indian establishment. Although the peace process did tread the forward path during Musharraf's rule, the Indian establishment was quite wary of dealing with him because of the Kargil incursions and the 2001 Agra summit fiasco. So, seeing a change of government in Islamabad was always something which New Delhi was eager

for but hesitant of letting it out explicitly as there was no other viable political option in sight. Now after the general elections, India is hoping that a stable government based on clear majority would be better able to make a decisive forward movement than any other type of the government. Moreover, even though New Delhi will have to deal with a newer set of people, it expects little trouble as Indian diplomats are politicians are aware of the working style of both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's PML. The election campaign itself was marked by suicide bombings and assassinations of political leaders; most prominent among them was that of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's. Her assassination at an election rally in Rawalpindi on 27 October 2007 was a big blow for the democratic forces in Pakistan. Her party, PPP was tipped to sweep the elections which could have propelled her to the Prime Ministership for the third time. The assassination cast a shadow on the rest of the election campaign and resulted in elections being postponed from January 8 to February 18. It however helped to strengthen the focus on democratic forces. This also meant that issues which have been the staple of general elections in Pakistan in recent years like corruption, Kashmir, India etc. did not figure prominently in these elections. After the assassination, the Indian government as a precautionary security measure temporarily suspended rail (Munnabao-Khokrapar and Samjhauta Express) and bus (Delhi-

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Lahore) links with Pakistan which stranded many passengers on both the sides. This was indeed the first time that India was not an issue in the Pakistani general elections. In fact one of the positive gains of the elections this time has been the way in which Pakistani voters and political parties have come to appreciate the Indian democracy and the lack of same in Pakistan. On its part too, the Indian government chose not to comment upon the political developments in Pakistan so as to avoid allegations of interference in Pakistan's internal affairs. This studied silence was broken except at the time of Bhutto's assassination when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other Indian ministers expressed shock and horror over the development and highlighted the common threat posed by terrorism to both the countries. If we take a look at the current scenario it can be observed that the bilateral peace process is stuck in stalemate. The much touted Joint Working Group (JWG) on Terrorism established after the Havana meeting between Manmohan Singh and General Musharraf in September 2006 has proved to be ineffective and nonfunctional, despite the repeated statements coming from New Delhi and Islamabad that threat of terrorism looms large upon both the countries. Many strategic experts from India have doubted the logic of this JWG in equating India- a victim of terrorism for a long time and Pakistan- a perpetrator of cross-border terrorism and recent victim of terrorism. All the evidences that have been brought before the JWG by India related to the terrorist support networks, their financial

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PAKISTAN ELECTION

links etc. has been refuted by Pakistan which has frustrated the security establishment in New Delhi. The issue of Siachen too has been on the 'verge of resolution' for quite some time now. Both the countries are stuck on the point of authenticating their positions on ground. The only encouraging signs come from the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) in operation. Just a few days before the general elections, both the countries had signed an agreement in Islamabad to double up the number of weekly passenger flights between the two countries to facilitate people-to-people contact, business and trade activities. The only sore point of this increased air link is that there are still no direct flights connecting the two national capitals. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Islamabad too has been pending for quite some amount of time. Singh has made it clear that unless there is a notable breakthrough on any of the contentious issues, he would not like to waste such an important opportunity. Pakistani officials too are insisting that time has come now to move from the CBMs to dispute resolutions. That in turn has created pressure upon the diplomats of both the countries to find a resolution on any of the outstanding issues. Sir Creek issue can be such an issue ripe for resolution where a slight difference exists between the two countries. The agenda for the new Pakistani government however would be primarily domestic characterised by economic reconstruction, social development, strengthening the democratic forces and most importantly fighting the terrorist and fundamentalist groups. Just a few months back, religious fundamentalists in Islamabad's Lal Masjid had put up a strong challenge to the authority of the federal government. Hence acting against them is a necessity for the

Pakistani government. In addition, Benazir Bhutto's assassination by the suspected Al Qaeda suicide terrorists means that one of the primary agenda of the new government would be to take on this terrorist group supported by the religious fundamentalists. The group has been spreading its tentacles in the areas bordering Afghanistan for quite some time now. The likely sustained government offensive would act as a double-edged sword for India. If the onslaught on the terrorist and fundamentalist forces succeeds, these forces would weaken. However that weakness may propel these forces to increase the frequency of attacks against India and its security forces, particularly in Kashmir valley. Moreover the new Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani does not seem politically inclined. Yet the influence of the army on the Pakistani politics will not subside. This also means that the army would continue to dictate the policy on India and there would not be any let off in the hostilities. The ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) is expected to continue as it is in the interest of both the countries if the LoC remains peaceful. One primary worry that India has with regard to the new Pakistani government is that the history of both the PPP and PML in working together has not been really promising. At this stage, since it is in interest of both the parties to work together, they may form an alliance as indicated by the announcements of PML leader Nawaz Sharif and PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari of forming a national government. But as the inherent contradictions in the functioning of a coalition government become apparent and the political exigency disappears they may part ways which will weaken

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the government and in turn affect the dynamics of the peace process. Ultimately, whatever the outlook of the new government in Pakistan, it is imperative upon both the governments in New Delhi and Islamabad to put the bilateral peace process on the irreversible path of normalisation. It is pertinent to point out here that even as the new government assumes reins of power in Islamabad, the Congress ledUnited Progressive Alliance government is heading into an election year. The Indian government may give the benefit of initial goodwill to the new Pakistani government, but that goodwill may evaporate soon if Islamabad does not act fast upon outstanding issues.

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