OPINION
3 Rising
Abbreviations & Index toward rear of yearbook
triad that was termed as the Axis of Evil by US President George W. Bush in the aftermath of 9/11.The history of Pyongyang’s flirting with nuclear capability is old and well orchestrated. It requires delving into it in order to establish the reasons that compel North’s dictatorial regime to pursue its nuclear agenda despite the sanctions that they invite. North Korea initiating a nuclear programme can be traced back to the rising tide of South’s conventional capability with the US providing the latter with the wherewithal. When the fact of being left behind was perceived by the North in the 1980s, it went in for a nuclear option; an asymmetric approach to circumvent the growing chasm in its conventional capabilities vis-a-vis South Korea. They established the first experimental 5 MWe reactor in Yongbyon. By 1986, North was assessed to have plutonium. Yongbyon also has another reactor that is possibly dysfunctional now. The US started a dialogue to wean North Korea away from its nuclear ambitions. However, when the North’s leadership responded by deciding to walk out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, that they had been a signatory to, matters came to a head. The US focussed on the option of attacking the North’s nuclear sites. The threat of the US intervention by force paid its dividends. The North consented to Clinton’s Agreed Framework in 1994 that witnessed the North putting its plutonium enrichment on hold for the next eight years. The Agreed Framework signed by the US and North Korea on October 21, 1994 in Geneva, in addition to freezing the existing nuclear programme and access to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for enhanced safeguards, also made room for normalisation of political and economic relations.
T
he ground beneath the feet trembled in the Chinese border town of Yanji, on May 25, 2008. About 130 miles away, on the same day and at the same hour, at 9.54 am local time to be precise, Kizu County in Northeast Korea experienced an earthquake measuring a magnitude of 4.5 on the scales. North Korea had conducted its second nuclear test. The country’s official news agency removed whatever doubts the international community had with a terse announcement and said, “We have successfully conducted another nuclear test on May 25 as part of the republic’s measures to strengthen its nuclear deterrent.” There are two basic elements required to create the equations that are of relevance in nuclear deterrence assessments: nuclear weapons capability, and delivery means availability. The North Koreans had testlaunched a ballistic missile on April 5. Pyongyang, at that stage, had argued that it was a peaceful communication satellite. However, the technology was considered as too evidently identical to that used for a long-range Taepodong-2 missile. On May 25, when they tested a weapon that was comparable to that used in Hiroshima, the fact that the world would be alarmed, was inevitable. The North Koreans, like the Iranians, have kept the western world on tenterhooks for long. Though not echoed too often today, along with Iran and Afghanistan, North Korea formed the third constituent of the
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59 SP's MILITARY YEARBOOK | 2009-2010 | 39th Year of Issue
TECHNOLOGY
CONCEPTS & PERSPECTIVES
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North Korea’s leadership would certainly like to retain their independence, and not be amalgamated with the South as some wishful thinkers would like it to be. Meanwhile, perhaps what spurs the North most is its desire to be seen as an equal member in the comity of nations that holds direct talks with other nations, especially the United States.
ASIAN WHO’S WHO
Nuclear Gambling
REGIONAL BALANCE
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