Strategic assessment 2013 14 final draft by Safer Portsmouth

UPDATE TO STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF CRIME, ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR, SUBSTANCE MISUSE AND RE-OFFENDING 2013/14

Compiled and written by: Sam Graves, Katherine Chute & Pravin Isram (Community Safety Researchers, SPP) csresearchers@portsmouthcc.gov.uk

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Thanks to: SPP Support Officers and all those who have contributed information and comments

Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3 2. Overview of community safety .............................................................................................. 4 3. Adult re-offending.................................................................................................................. 9 4. Young people at risk............................................................................................................. 16 5. Alcohol misuse ..................................................................................................................... 24 6. Drug misuse ......................................................................................................................... 29 7. Violence and domestic abuse .............................................................................................. 37 8. Serious acquisitive crime ..................................................................................................... 45 9. Anti-social behaviour ........................................................................................................... 48 10. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix A - iQuanta trends for all crime types ..................................................................... 60 Appendix B - Performance summary: Q4 2013/14.................................................................. 62 Appendix C - Late Night Economy parameters (Previously ELNEP) ......................................... 63 Appendix D - Matrix used to identify SPP priorities ................................................................ 65 Appendix E - Portsmouth Community Safety Survey 2014: changes to the Methodology..... 66 Appendix F - SPP Venn Diagram.............................................................................................. 67

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

1. Introduction Annual strategic assessments (and updates) have been produced by the community safety research team for the Safer Portsmouth Partnership (SPP) since 2007/08. Strategic assessments: 

provide a summary of research and analysis on crime, anti-social behaviour and substance misuse  include information about key trends and emerging issues  recommend priorities for the SPP  inform the strategic plan, and  identify gaps in knowledge which need to be addressed by the team's research and analysis programme (these items are marked with a '' symbol). Completed work from the research programme is then fed back into the following year's report. The partnership agreed in 2013 to produce a full strategic assessment every three years. In order to synchronise the business planning cycle with the Health and Well-being Board and Children's Trust Board strategic planning cycles, the next full strategic assessment will now be produced at the end of 2014/15. This document is an update to the last full strategic assessment in 2012.

General information about the data Reference to ‘2013/14’, or ‘this year’ refers to the financial year - 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014, and ‘last year’ or 'the previous year' will refer to the previous financial year of 2012/13, unless stated otherwise. Data will be compared back to a baseline of 2007/08 where possible. Where data is available, comparisons will be made to England and the Safer Portsmouth Partnership comparator group of: Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Sheffield, Southampton and South-End on Sea. Differences between the figures used in this report in comparison with the Hampshire Constabulary Strategic Summary1 are due to:  The difference in time frame (the police document uses 1st April 2013 - 31st January 2014)  Different reporting systems: this document uses a data extract from Business Objects based on the validation date (performance data) and the police strategic summary uses an iBase report using the date the crime occurred (operational data). Where rates have been calculated, the Census 2011 figures have been used - a total population figure of 205,056. Where different population estimates have been used, these will be stated.

Hampshire Constabulary Portsmouth District Strategic Summary 2014

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

2. Overview of community safety In 2013/14, 16,935 crimes were recorded in Portsmouth (see appendix A for full details of iQuanta crime trends). This is an 8% (n1,508) reduction since last year and 33% (n8,226) less than the 2007/08 baseline giving a rate of 81.9 per 1,000 of the population. Although, overall crime is reducing, our rate is still slightly higher in comparison to the average for other similar areas (79.9 per 1,000). There has also been an 11% (n1154) reduction in police recorded anti-social behaviour since 2012/13. When compared to the previous year, there have been reductions in most types of crime in 2013/14 (see figure 1 below) but there have been increases in theft of motor vehicles (55%, n113), sexual offences (25%, n56), non-domestic burglary (19%,n136), cycle theft (15%, n149), most serious violence (8%, n5) and arson (5%, n9). Further research is needed to establish the main drivers behind the increase in most serious violence.ď&#x20AC;Ś % change against 2012/13 % change against baseline (2007/08) where possible

All crime All violent Violence against the person with injury Most serious violence Racially or religiously aggravated offences Alcohol related violence NTE zones Robbery Sexual offences (All) Serious acquisitive Crime Domestic burglary Non-domestic burglary Theft of motor vehicles Theft from motor vehicles Theft from the person Shop theft Cycle theft Criminal damage All deliberate fires (HFRS)

Figure 1: Crime change 2013/14 % Change -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -33 -34

-8 -22 -7 -14 8

-40 -40 -46

-10 -18 -5 -24

-51

-6 -33

-11 -21

-59 -59

19 55

-16 -7

-2

-26 -14 -8 -52

15 -11

-77

Portsmouth's reduction in crime over the last year is consistent with, but not as dramatic as the reduction seen in crime reported to the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) which saw a 14% drop (see figure 2 on the next page)2. However, while the interviews take place during 2013/14, the respondents are asked about crime experienced in the previous 12 months. This means that some of the crimes reported in the survey would have been experienced in 2012/13 during which crime in Portsmouth fell by 16%.

Office for National Statistics Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Nationally police recorded crime has stabilised, experiencing a small but not significant reduction from 2012/13. Since 2006/07 police recorded crime has fallen at a faster rate than the CSEW (formerly the British Crime Survey), which raised questions about the quality of crime recording by police. This led to the UK Statistics authority removing their 'quality stamp' for police recorded crime pending a review.3 The Office for National Statistics (ONS) believe that this has prompted renewed focus and improved compliance with recording standards in some police forces, leading to a higher proportion of crimes being recorded. The fact that crime in Portsmouth has continued to fall indicates that Hampshire Constabulary's recording practices are likely to have remained fairly constant. Figure 2: Local and National Reductions from 2006/07 0.0

Percentage change

-5.0

Portsmouth Police recorded crime National Police recorded crime

-10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0

CSEW reported crime

-30.0 -35.0 -40.0 2013/14

2012/13

2011/12

2010/11

2009/10

2008/09

2007/08

2006/07

-45.0

The continued fall in crime is likely to be due to factors such as: partnership working, evidence led prioritisation of resources, policy changes in how low level crimes are dealt with, improved security in homes and vehicles and a drop in the price of electronic goods (see last years' strategic update for full details about why crime may be reducing).4 The continuing fall in crime is supported by good performance throughout 2013/14, with 11 out of 14 indicators monitored by the partnership achieving a GREEN rating at the end of the year (see appendix B for the SPP Performance Summary). There was an improvement in the custody rate for young people, although this measure still did not meet the SPP target and was rated AMBER. The number of people in alcohol treatment remained fairly constant, but was rated AMBER because it also did not meet the SPP target. The only measure to be rated RED was the number of successful drug treatment completions, although, this could be artificially low because a large number of cases were nominally transferred to the new substance misuse database (Illy) who had never attended and whose cases were closed.

Resident perceptions The Community Safety Survey (CSS 2014) was conducted in March 2014, gathering perceptions and experiences from 849 Portsmouth residents.5 Most respondents indicated that they thought they had a good quality of life (mean=3.95 on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 was poor and 5 was very good) and the actual experience of crime was generally low. 3

UK Statistics Authority, Jan 2014 Statistics on Crime in England and Wales http://www.saferportsmouth.org.uk/files/7513/5409/6973/Strategic_Assessment_2011-12_Final_version.pdf 5 SPP S.Graves & N.Sandford-Smith Community Safety Survey 2014: Headline Results 4

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

The top most feared crimes were 'burglary', 'being mugged / robbed' and 'being assaulted', but only a small proportion of people experienced any of these crimes. This finding is consistent with previous surveys. The most common types of anti-social behaviour experienced were 'noise from domestic properties' (noisy neighbours), 'litter', 'general noise in the street' (shouting, music, skateboards etc), 'dog mess' and 'street drinking'. For most types of anti-social behaviour, concern was slightly higher than experience. This was not the case for 'domestic noise', 'harassment & bullying' and 'bin bags being left out at the wrong time'. Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) respondents were more likely to report being concerned about and experiencing 'harassment & bullying' than British white respondents. Overall, the level of people avoiding or being fearful of some areas in Portsmouth has decreased since 2012. The areas that people fear or avoid have remained fairly constant - Somerstown, Buckland, Guildhall Walk and Fratton (although Fratton has dropped from ranking 2nd last year to 4th). The most common reason for avoiding all of these areas continues to be a bad reputation.

Priorities for the Safer Portsmouth Partnership A matrix was used to check the SPP priority crime and anti-social behaviour types. This matrix took into consideration: volume, trends, bench-marking, public concern, personal harm and whether they were likely to have a disproportionate impact against sections of the community or were linked to drug or alcohol misuse. This process identified violence with injury as the highest priority crime type, and in particular domestic abuse. Other priorities were identified as cycle theft and noise nuisance (See appendix D).

Localities The Police Safer Neighbourhood Teams (SNT) are currently divided into four localities, with four separate SNT's policing the city. Portsmouth City Council Community Wardens work in three teams, covering three areas, whose boundaries are different to those used by the police teams. Whilst partnership working is continuing to develop and has had a positive impact on crime reduction, having separate areas of 'policing' has been an inhibitor to closer working, including the sharing of information, early intervention and problem solving. Hampshire Constabulary has recently agreed to align their neighbourhood boundaries to local authority electoral wards. This will create three SNT's in the city, co-terminus with community warden areas: North, Central and South. When the co-locating of the teams is achieved, it is envisaged that closer working relations will improve our response to community concerns. Further to this, there are future opportunities for Public Health and Children's Services to work to the same localities which will provide further opportunities for better service co-ordination. To support this work, table 1 (below) produced by PCC's strategy unit provides some baseline data for some main crime and anti-social behaviour measures, as well as for some key risk factors and figure 3 (also below) shows all crime broken down by locality and ward.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Table 1: Key crime, anti-social behaviour and risk factors by locality6

Nb. *Awaiting some final figures from Nicola Waterman

The population figures and population density have been calculated using the Mid 2012 population estimate.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Figure 3:

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

3. Adult re-offending Evidence illustrates that as a group, offenders (or those at risk of offending), frequently suffer from multiple and complex issues which can impact on offending behaviour, including: mental and physical health problems, learning difficulties, substance misuse, homelessness and have increased risk of premature mortality.7 As such, adult re-offending impacts on a number of SPP priorities as well as being a priority in its own right and reducing re-offending is a statutory duty of Community Safety Partnerships.8

What proportion of crime are 'known offenders' responsible for?9 This year 16,943 crimes were recorded in Portsmouth,10 of which 5,457 or 32.2% were detected. Of the 5,457 detected crimes, 89% (n4,869) were sanction detections11.12 This represents 28.7% of all recorded crime, which is a decrease on last year's rate (29.8%) but similar to the national detection rate for 2013/14 (29%). Whilst the sanction detection rate has decreased in Portsmouth in 2013/14, the overall detection rate has increased very slightly, by 0.25% from 31.96% in 2012/13. This suggests that there may have been a greater use of community resolutions13, which count as detections rather than sanction detections. We have offender details relating to 2,655 individuals responsible for 4,647 (85%)14 of the 5,457 detected offences. It is this data we use for the following offender profiles. It should be emphasised that this only relates to the offenders who were caught for their offences (accounting for just 27.4% of all recorded crime) who may have very different characteristics to the remaining 73% who were not caught and those who committed crimes that were not recorded. This year we have details of proportionately fewer offenders than we did last year, when we had details for 3,388 offenders who were responsible for 5,760 offences. This is likely to be, at least in part, the result of the overall reduction in crime. Table 2 below shows a decrease in the number of offenders committing just one offence this year and a decrease in the number of offences they are responsible for. However, the majority of known offenders (71.9%, n1,909) still only commit one known offence each year. At this time we are not able to confirm how many of these are 'first time' offenders,ď&#x20AC;Ś but nationally in 2013, 21.8% of entrants to the criminal justice system were first time entrants.15 This may indicate that as well as looking at persistent and prolific offenders, we also need to look at those offenders with a long term but low level criminal career. 7

Balancing Act: Addressing health inequalities among people in contact with the criminal justice system (2013) st The statutory duty came into effect on 1 April 2010 as part of the Policing and Crime Act 2009. 9 For the purpose of this research, data used for profiling on offenders has been supplied by the Eastern Area Research and Analysis Team, this may differ from final validated figures supplied to the Home-office. 10 This figure is based on performance data provided by Hampshire Constabulary Eastern Area Research and Analysis Team and is different from the figure reported in the overview as this is based on iQuanta data. 11 Detected crimes are those that have been â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;cleared upâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; by the police. Sanction detections include offences that are cleared up through a formal sanction to the offender. 12 This figure may differ from the verified figures by Hampshire Constabulary as crimes are confirmed or re-categorised over time. 523 offences are classified as New, which means they are still under investigation and have not been filed yet. 13 A community resolution is an alternative approach to dealing with minor offences. Instead of the offence being handled by the justice system, the police officer decides an appropriate manner for the offender to redeem himself/herself before the victim. The decision is reached by consulting with the victim and must be accepted by the offender in order to take effect. 14 This figure may be inflated if detected offences were committed by more than one known offender, resulting in the crime being double counted. A low estimate, with all duplicate occurrence numbers removed, is 4,252 detected offences. 15 MoJ, Criminal Justice statistics quarterly bulletin: December 2013, offending history tables. This figure has decreased year on year since 2007. The way that the FTE data is calculated changed in January 2014 and updated figures have been produced for previous years (back to 2006). We have been trying to obtain this data locally for the past 12 months. 8

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 There is growing research interest in these offenders and some researchers are arguing that strategies for dealing with re-offending should include this group.16 Table 2: Number of offences committed by offenders in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 Number of offences

Offenders 2012/13

% of all offenders 2012/13

Crimes 2012/13

% of all crime 2012/13

Offenders 2013/14

% of all offenders 2013/14

Crimes* 2013/14

% of all crime 2013/14

2,477

73.1%

2,477

13.4%

1,909

71.9%

1,909

11.3%

488

14.4%

976

5.3%

406

15.3%

812

4.8%

3 or 4

254

7.5%

833

4.5%

200

7.5%

667

3.9%

5 to 9

123

3.6%

751

4.1%

103

3.9%

633

3.7%

10 to 14

0.8%

330

1.8%

0.7%

222

1.3%

15 and above

0.5%

393

2.1%

0.7%

404

2.4%

The highest proportion of offences were perpetrated by people who committed two or more offences each in the year (16.2% of all crime, n2738). The most prolific offenders (0.7%, n18) committed 15 or more offences each in the year. Collectively, they were responsible for 404 offences or 2.4% of all recorded crime. This compares to 18 offenders last year (0.5%) responsible for 393 crimes or 2.1% of all crime. So this year we have the same number of prolific offenders committing more offences per person. We had three offenders committing more than 30 crimes in the year.

What do we know about offenders in Portsmouth? Just over 81% of offenders are male (n2,153) and almost 19% (n495) are female. This represents a decrease in female offenders since last year (22%, n758). As might be expected, the majority of offenders are in the 18 to 24 years age category17 (31.5%, n1,066) followed by the 25 to 34 years age category (26.8%, n909). Analysis of the 18 most prolific offenders shows:  All of the offenders are male (100%, n18). This is an increase on last year when 83% (n15) were male.  Four (22%) are under 18 years old and are dealt with as young offenders. As in previous years, this age group committed a wider range of offences than their adult counterparts.  The most common offence amongst the adults was theft (80.3% of offences, n261), and was the primary offence for 13 of the 14 adults. The remaining offender committed 46 criminal damage offences and 1 offence of violence against the person without injury.  The most common theft offence was burglary of a dwelling or non-dwelling, accounting for 43.7% of theft offences (n114). This was closely followed by shoplifting (39.8%, n104), which was the primary offence for 6 of the 14 adults.  Three (17%) of the individuals each had one recorded offence for the possession of drugs. This is a much smaller proportion than last year, when 9 (50%) of the most prolific offenders had 17 drug offences between them. As the detection of drug offences is linked to proactive policing this may simply be indicative of the general reduction seen in 2013/14 for detected drug offences. However, this represents an 82% reduction in detected drug offences in this group, compared to a 10.8% reduction of all recorded drug offences. As such, it could indicate that the most prolific 16

Matt Hopkins, University of Leicester. As discussed in the Strategic Assessment 2012. Much of the literature recognises that offending behaviour generally tails off after age 25, although there is a lack of consensus amongst researchers as to the reasons for this. Theories range from biological and cognitive explanations such as the natural development of personality, self-control and empathy to social ones that correlate employment, marriage and parenthood with ageing. 17

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 offenders are committing acquisitive offences for reasons other than to fund drug use. Although this will need monitoring to establish if it is in fact the emergence of a trend, particularly given the small numbers involved in this cohort which make it difficult to draw any conclusions. ď&#x20AC;Ś

Offenders supervised in the community Probation services are currently undergoing considerable change and restructuring as part of the Transforming Rehabilitation (TR) agenda. On 1st June 2014 Portsmouth offenders were transferred from Hampshire Probation Trust to one of two new organisations; the National Probation Service (NPS) or the Community Rehabilitation Company (CRC). The NPS will supervise offenders who pose a high risk of harm to the public and Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangement (MAPPA) offenders on their release from prison, or upon receipt of a community order. The CRC will supervise offenders who pose a low or medium risk of harm to the public. One of the biggest changes under the TR agenda is the statutory 12 months (minimum) supervision of all offenders who have served a custodial sentence of one day or more, once they are released from prison. This aspect of the TR agenda is expected to go live at the end of 2014. The contract for the delivery of the CRCs went out to tender earlier this year and it is expected that the successful bidder will be announced in the autumn. The full impact of these changes is not yet known and the reporting structures going forward are yet to be finalised. However, there will be a far greater number of individuals under supervision, including those sentenced for more minor offences and a number who are first time entrants to the criminal justice system. Table 3: MoJ Tracking Measure of Re-offending for Portsmouth Actual Reoffending Predicted Reoffending Rate Rate

% Difference from 2007/08 Baseline

Rolling 12 months to:

Cohort Size

December 2013

2,413

9.22

9.54

-5.41

December 2012

2,505

12.73

12.27

3.76

December 2011

2,830

11.98

12.14

-1.32

December 2010

2,805

13.30

12.50

7.00

December 2009

2,854

13.30

13.00

2.20

December 2008

2,994

12.40

12.90

-3.50

The Ministry of Justice currently tracks reoffending levels based on the caseloads of Probation Trusts across England and Wales.18 Portsmouth caseloads, shown in Table 3 above, have gone down in the last twelve months. The rate of reoffending in 2013 is an improvement on the previous year as the actual rate of reoffending is now below the predicted rate. There is also a reduction of 5.41% from the baseline year, which compares favourably to the national decrease of 3.35%. When looking at the percentage difference from the baseline, Portsmouth ranks fourth compared with similar areas (where first is the best performing area),19 performing worse than Southampton, Plymouth and Sheffield but better than Brighton & Hove. It should be noted that these rates are likely to increase when 'short sentence prisoners' are included in the Probation cohort. Evidence from the National Offender

Local Adult Reoffending 1 January 2013 - 31 December 2013 England and Wales, Ministry of Justice Statistics bulletin, downloaded 21/05/2014 19 The SPP similar areas / most similar group (MSG) are: Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southend-On-Sea, Sheffield and Southampton.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Management Service suggests that the majority of short sentence prisoners currently have a very high likelihood of re-offending (predicted re-offending rate).20 In 2013/14 Hampshire Probation Trust supervised 901 offenders in Portsmouth, 68 less than last year.21 Of those supervised, almost 16% (n142) were female, which is an increase of 2% from last year. This is a smaller proportion of women than in the offender population as a whole and suggests that more female offenders are either FTEs or committing lower level crimes that donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t result in prison or community sentences. However, whilst the numbers are low, the increase in female offenders supervised could indicate that more females are beginning to commit more serious offences. The age profiles for supervised offender's show that the majority are in the bands 26 to 34 years or 35 to 49 years, older than the general offending population for whom we have details. The Probation trust tends to work with more prolific offenders or those committing more serious crimes, hence the older age band. In 2012/13 there were fewer supervised offenders in the '18 to 24 years' age band22 and this trend has continued into 2013/14 (n201), however, given the reduction in the overall numbers of supervised offenders, the percentage change equates to a reduction of less than 1%. It is not possible to say therefore, whether the reduction in the number of 18 to 24 year olds is linked to the recent reduction in youth offending rates, as such this will need to continue to be tracked over time. ď&#x20AC;Ś Probation complete OASYS assessments for offenders which link into the seven pathways to offending, providing a summary score for each section of the assessment.23 This score gives an indication about whether a particular issue is thought to be linked to offending behaviour for the assessed individual (a criminogenic need). The proportion of supervised offenders known to misuse drugs has increased again this year (32%, n290 compared to 30% in 2012/13). Between April 2012 and December 2012, 12 individuals successfully completed Drug Rehabilitation Requirements. Of these, 7 (58%) were convicted of a further offence in the twelve months following completion. The proportion of supervised offenders known to misuse alcohol has remained constant (47%, n425). Between April 2012 and December 2012, five individuals successfully completed Alcohol Treatment Requirements although all of the five were convicted of a further offence in the following twelve months. A further 33 individuals completed Alcohol Related Specified Activity Requirements and of these, 16 (48%) were convicted of a further offence in the following twelve months. Caution should be exercised when interpreting these figures as it is not possible to draw any sound conclusions based on: the small numbers involved, the time period covered, the age of the data and the fact that there is no comparable data relating to a matched control group24. It is also worth noting that, at this time, we are unable to report on whether or not these re-convictions were related to the individuals' substance misuse. During 2013/14, 27 individuals successfully completed Drug Rehabilitation Requirements, 18 individuals successfully completed Alcohol Treatment Requirements and a further 43 successfully completed 20

National Offender Management Service (2013) NOMS Evidence and Segmentation. Data for the profiling of supervised offenders was provided by the Hampshire Probation Trust Information Unit. 22 The number of young adult offenders went down from 242 in 2011/12 to 219 in 2012/13. 23 The seven pathways to offending are: accommodation, education/training/employment, health, drugs/alcohol, finance/benefit/debt, children/families and attitudes/thinking/behaviour. OASYS sections include: accommodation, employment/training/education, financial management/income, relationships, lifestyle/associates, drug misuse, alcohol misuse, emotional wellbeing, thinking/behaviour, attitudes. 24 The latter point relating to a matched control group, whilst preferable, is not essential in order for us to draw conclusions from reconviction data. 21

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Alcohol Related Specified Activity Requirements. There is currently no available data relating to the impact of these interventions and this is an area that requires further research and analysis ď&#x20AC;Ś These figures suggest that there could be a possible gap between the number of individuals for whom alcohol and/or drugs are identified as a criminogenic need and those who go on to receive specific interventions from probation to address these. However, it is likely that a number of these individuals are receiving one-to-one support during supervision with their offender manager or are being referred on to other services for drug and alcohol treatment in the community. Indeed, 18% (n115) of the referrals to alcohol services in Portsmouth were from a criminal justice source in 2013/1425 as were 26.1% (n279) of referrals to drug services.26 As these interventions / onward referrals are not recorded in a reportable manner by Probation, further research in the form of a dip sample looking at individual case notes is required to fully understand what is being done to address these individual's needs.ď&#x20AC;Ś In 2013/14, at least 30% (n289) of the probation caseload in Portsmouth were at risk of violence towards their partner27. Between April and December 2012, eight individuals successfully completed the Integrated Domestic Abuse Programme (IDAP) and only one of these individuals received a further domestic abuse conviction in the 12 months following completion. Of the remaining seven, a further two received police call outs in relation to domestic abuse incidents in the 12 months following completion. Again, caution should be exercised when interpreting these figures as it is not possible to draw any sound conclusions based on: the small numbers involved, the time period covered, the age of the data and the fact that there is no comparable data relating to a matched control group 28. During 2013/14, 16 offenders successfully completed IDAP, a successful completion rate of 72%. Data relating to outcomes for these individuals, including reconviction rates, is not currently available. Building Better Relationships has now replaced IDAP as the domestic abuse programme and is available to men with a history of domestic violence, including those who have not been convicted of domestic abuse offences.29 'Up2U: Creating Healthy Relationships' is a domestic abuse perpetrator programme developed by Portsmouth City Council for any person (male or female) who accepts that they use unhealthy or abusive behaviours in their relationship and wants to change them. This went live on the 6th May 2014 and presents an opportunity to deliver domestic violence interventions to a greater number of perpetrators within the city. In 2013/14 there was a slight increase in the proportion of offenders identified as having accommodation problems (29%, n259 compared to 27% in 2012/13) and almost 14% (n45) of offenders were not living in settled accommodation at the termination of their supervision. This is concerning given the finding that, prisoners who reported being homeless before entering custody were much

National Drug Treatment Monitoring System, accessed 25/06/2014. This could include referrals from probation, police, prisons or criminal justice substance misuse services. 26 Data accessed via Illy on 16/07/2014. These figures may differ from those published by NDTMS. 27 According to the spousal assault risk assessment (SARA). Figures provided by Hampshire Probation Trust Performance Team. It should be noted that not all offenders are assessed and as such this figure could be higher. 28 The latter point relating to a matched control group, whilst preferable, is not essential in order for us to draw conclusions from reconviction data. 29 The Integrated Domestic Abuse Programme was based on the power and control model but evaluation and research suggest that it was not particularly effective. Building Better Relationships has been developed using a strengths based model and aims to: increase perpetrators understanding of motivating factors for domestic violence, reduce individual risk factors linked to violence and develop prosocial relationship skills. BBR is available for the sentenced offenders as well as those coming through the Family Courts, as contracted through CAFCASS.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 more likely to be re-convicted upon release than those who did not report homelessness as an issue (79% compared with 47% in the first year following release from prison).30 Education, Training and Employment also remains an issue, with 38% (n341) of offenders identifying this as a criminogenic need (compared to 37% in 2012/13). During 2013/14, the Employment, Training and Education team in Portsmouth worked with 280 offenders, helping them to undertake job searches, prepare applications, develop interview skills and meet their obligations to disclose unspent convictions. Of these, 14% (n38) were helped into employment and a further 6% (n18) were helped into training. Overall, 54% (n129) of offenders in Portsmouth were in employment at the termination of their supervision, which is slightly less than in Southampton (57%, n208). OASYS does not specifically assess or report on mental health issues; the criminogenic need most closely linked to mental health is emotional wellbeing. In 2013/14, emotional wellbeing was identified as an issue for 38% (n342) of the Portsmouth caseload (this compares to 37%, n355 in 2012/13). This is similar to the Centre for Mental Health finding that 39% of those individuals supervised by probation have current mental health problems.31 In April 2014, the Centre for Mental Health published a report on diversion services for offenders with multiple needs, which incorporated the work undertaken by the Portsmouth Criminal Justice Team. 32 Across diversion services in general, the study found that of all offenders interviewed:  Around half were victims of crimes as well as offenders,  around two-thirds reported problematic substance use,  around one-third had had disrupted childhoods (including periods in local authority care 33),  around one-third had experienced childhood physical/sexual abuse,  many had experienced bereavement early in life,  around half had a family history of mental ill health and  around half had their first contact with the criminal justice system as a teenager. Many individuals had housing, income/debt and employment needs in addition to their mental health issues and if not dealt with as a priority, these wider needs could act as a barrier to engagement. What characterised all of these offenders was a catalogue of missed opportunities for support with their mental health issues. Multiple, complex problems can often be severe when taken together and frequently form part of the 'offender profile' (regardless of mental health diagnosis). Individuals experiencing such problems account for much of the 'repeat business' in the criminal justice system, yet they often fall between the gaps in services because their individual problems do not meet specific service thresholds (such as those of secondary mental health). In 2013/14, the police attended 987 incidents that were closed for reasons including (but not limited to) mental health. Further to this, the police used section 136 of the Mental Health Act (removed people to a place of safety due to risk posed from suffering from a mental illness) 45 times in Portsmouth in the same period.34

Balancing Act: Addressing health inequalities among people in contact with the criminal justice system (2013) Centre for Mental Health (2012) Briefing 45: Probation and Mental Health. This was a study of just one probation trust. 32 Durcan, G. (2014) Keys to Diversion: Best practice for offenders with multiple needs. The study undertook interviews with approximately 45 service users from 4 different services across the country. 33 All of those who had experienced local authority care stated a belief that this had negatively impacted on their mental health. 34 Data provided by the Performance and Consultation Team at Hampshire Constabulary to Public Health as part of a one-off exercise. 31

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

Persistent offenders The Integrated Offender Management (IOM) Team in Portsmouth supervises both statutory and nonstatutory offenders; those who are legally required to engage with Probation and those who engage voluntarily. During 2013/14 the IOM team worked with 114 Priority and Prolific Offenders (PPOs) and Emerging Threat Offenders35 (ETOs) in Portsmouth. 93% of these individuals were male and the age range across the cohort was 20 to 47. In addition to this they worked with 199 non-statutory offenders. 90% of these individuals were male (n267) and ages across the cohort ranged from 20 to 54 years. A further 97 nonstatutory offenders and four PPOs were offered support but did not ultimately engage with the service. 'Reoffending' has been tracked for 180 of the offenders who commenced a period of supervision with the Portsmouth IOM team between April 2011 and March 2012.36 Broken up into quarterly cohorts, custody entrants, known offences and arrestable offences have been tracked by the police for two years (eight quarters), following the commencement of these individuals supervision (see figure 4 below). For all of the 2011/12 tracked cohorts, a significant reduction is seen in: the number of entrants into custody (59.2%, n138 reduction compared to the baseline), the number of offences that individuals are arrested for (45.6%, n164 reduction compared to the baseline) and the number of known crimes that individuals have committed (44.9%, n102 reduction compared to the baseline).37 Figure 4: Portsmouth IOM and PPO cohorts 2011/2012 400 350 300

Custody Entrants Offences Arrested Known Crimes

250 200 150 100 50 0 Baseline Qtr 1

Qtr 2

Qtr 3

Qtr 4

Qtr 5

Qtr 6

Qtr 7

Qtr 8

Generally those offenders who the police have de-registered as PPOs. 10 of these were identified as PPOs 37 Data taken from the IOM Framework Report provided by Hampshire Constabulary. This is a sample of all of the offenders who engaged with the IOM team in that year. 36

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

4. Young people at risk Safety The 'Children and Young People Survey 2014'38 conducted by the Children's Society found that young people in Portsmouth were fairly positive about their local area and facilities, but scored slightly lower than the national average in relation to feeling safe (7.5 in comparison with 7.8). Approximately 30% (n1,230)39 of young people reported that they had been bullied. Young people generally experienced emotional and/or verbal bullying, but 35% (n430) said that they had experienced physical bullying. Bullying was most commonly experienced at school (78% of those bullied, n960) followed by local area (18%, n221), to and from school (17%, n209) and online (14%, n172). Most children and young people, in school year five and above, have good access to the internet with 70% (n2,240) using smart phones, 64% (n2,048) laptops, 60% (n1,920) tablets and fewer using PCs at home and at the library. Older children were more likely to use every type of device. 16% (n512) of respondents said that they had been worried or upset by something which had happened online, most commonly bullying or threatening messages, followed by not being sure who they were communicating with or being asked to do something they didn't want to.40 The most commonly reported types of anti-social behaviour that young people believed were causing problems in their area41 were: dog mess (67%, n1,446), rubbish (55%, 1,187) and general noise (44%, n950). These are similar to the problems reported by adults in the Community Safety Survey 2014.42 57% of young people who responded to the survey said that they had experienced at least one of these problems. Due to the way the survey was administered it was not possible to find out what types of anti-social behaviour young people were most likely to experience. The crimes that young people were most worried about were: being followed by someone (70%, n1,511), robbery (49%, n1,057), and assault (49%, n1,057). Once again we are not able to find out which types of crime have actually been experienced by young people, but 28% of young people reported having experienced at least one of the crimes listed. The Crime Survey of England and Wales 2014 found that approximately 12% of young people had experienced a crime - although this cannot be directly compared with the Portsmouth Survey finding due to differing methodologies. Of these, approximately half had been a victim of a violent crime and the other half had had something stolen from them. However, those who were victims of violence were more likely to be a repeat victim, leading to a larger proportion of violent crimes (59%) in comparison with thefts (37%). Nationally 46% (n456) of deaths in young people aged 10 to 19yrs were from potentially preventable 'external' causes (17% were from cancer, 2011). Road deaths were the most common external cause, 38

http://www.hants.gov.uk/pccjsna/API_STR_JSNA_POP_CYP_ChildrenWellbeingReport2014.pdf accessed 23/6/14. The questionnaire was completed by 4,100 young people aged 7-18 years. 39 No numbers were given in main body of the 'Children and Young People Survey 2014' and have been worked out using the data available for the number of children in each year group. It is unlikely to be exact but has been included to give readers a rough idea of the number of children affected by an issue. 40 This question was only asked of the secondary school sample who had been worried or upset. The actual numbers could not be assumed for these proportions. 41 The Children and Young People Survey was a self-completion questionnaire and therefore respondents were able to see all types of antisocial behaviour and crime - this differed from the Community Safety Survey which was administered by fieldworkers. 42 Not published yet but available from csresearchers@portsmouthcc.gov.uk

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 followed by self-harm, both of which were significantly higher than deaths as a result of violence. Young men were far more likely to die from external causes than young women, and the level of deaths amongst older adolescents (15 to 19 years) was much higher than the younger ones (10 to 14 years).43 The number of children killed or seriously injured in road traffic incidents in Portsmouth in 2009-2011 was almost double the national rate (42.5 per 100,000 under 18 year olds compared with 22.1).44

Vulnerable young people There is a wealth of research supporting the idea that certain circumstances (risk factors) increase the likelihood of a young person misusing substances or becoming involved in crime/anti-social behaviour.45 The likelihood increases when a young person faces a combination of negative factors. 46 Some previous analysis found that prominent risk factors for young people in Portsmouth were: whether the young person was known to social services, poor attendance from school and being excluded from school. 47 The latest available figures show that for the academic year 2012/13 showed that 5.2% of the school population in Portsmouth had a fixed term exclusion which is considerably higher than the national average of 3.5%. Furthermore 6.3% of school children in Portsmouth were persistent absentees in comparison with 4.6% nationally.48 Exclusions and absenteeism have reduced since 2010/11, although the reductions have been greater nationally than locally. The number of children in care has been on a slightly increasing trend for the last five years. A snapshot on 31st March 2014 showed that 318 children were being looked after, which was 4% (n12) higher than the previous year. Mental health issues can impact on many areas of a young person's life, including their ability to have good relationships with their family and friends and engage with education and other life opportunities. Although there is little up to date information about the prevalence of mental health conditions, past research has shown that approximately 13% of boys and 10% of girls have mental health problems. Taking risks and challenging authority can be part of adolescent development, but serious violent behaviour in this age group is not so common and may be linked to long-term negative outcomes. It is estimated that 6.5% of young people aged 11 to 15 years have a 'conduct disorder' which includes extreme aggressive, destructive and deceitful behaviour.49 The rate of hospital admissions for young people with mental health conditions in Portsmouth was 113 per 100,000 which was higher than the national average of 87.6 (2012/13). Additionally, the number of hospital admissions as a result of self-harm in 2012/13 was 495.2 per 100,000 which was also higher than the national average of 346.3.50 Parental issues may also have a big impact on young people. Where a parent is a problem drug user, children may experience: uncertainty and chaos, witnessing drug use, exposure to criminal activities 43

Association for Young People's Health Key Data on Adolescence 2013. PHE Child Health Profile for Portsmouth 2014 45 For example: Youth Justice Board (2005) Risk and Protective Factors 46 MoJ Youth Justice Statistics 2010/11: http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/statistics/youth-justice/yjb-statistics-10-11.pdf 47 Robinson, P (2010) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quarter 4 Report for Challenge and Support. 48 Permanent and fixed period exclusions in England: 2012 to 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/permanent-and-fixedperiod-exclusions-in-england-2012-to-2013 49 Green et al, 2005 Mental health of children and young people in Great Britain. 50 PHE Child Health Profile for Portsmouth 2014 44

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 such as drug dealing or shoplifting, disruption of their education, isolation and fear, possible negligence or abuse and having to act as carers for their parents and younger siblings. A government review estimated that 2-3% of young people may have a drug using parent51, which could equate to between 800 and 1,200 children in Portsmouth. There is also an overlap for children whose parents misuse alcohol, have a mental illness, are in an abusive relationship or a combination of these, with young people experiencing many of the same issues. The national Troubled Families programme works with families experiencing problems and sometimes causing problems for others. Within Portsmouth, 821 families had been identified as meeting the criteria52 for PFS by the end of 2013/14, and 31% (n254) of these families are either currently being worked with or have been worked with so far. During 2013/14, families accessing the service have seen improvements53 in the following identified factors:      

82% (n32) reduced their level of anti-social behaviour, 65% (n11) saw a reduction in the children's offending, 85% (n53) saw a reduction in the children's exclusions and absences, 65% (n50) had an adult closer to employment, 84% (n32) experienced a reduction in domestic abuse, and 87% (n27) experienced a reduction in substance misuse. 54

Offending Portsmouth has seen a continued and sustained reduction in youth offending. There was a 10% (n21) reduction in the number of young offenders, a 9% (n63) decrease in the number of offences committed since 2012/13 (see table 4 below) and a 9% (n9) drop in first time entrants (FTEs). These are significant reductions but are in the context of a fall in both young offenders and offences nationally. However, Portsmouth's rate of youth re-offending compares poorly to both the national average and with other similar areas. The most recent data available from the Youth Justice Board, July 2011 to June 2012,55 shows that 48.9% of those in the Portsmouth cohort committed more than one offence, and the average number of repeat offences was 1.9 for all those in this cohort. This compares with 35.3% and 1.02 nationally and 40.1% and 1.3 for the SPP most similar areas group. This high rate of re-offending is due to the number of offenders reducing by a higher percentage than the number of offences they are responsible for. There has been a 75% (n527) reduction in offenders but only a 61% (n977) reduction in offences 2007/08. This is most likely as a result of the youth restorative disposals (YRDs) introduced in Dec 2009, which were replaced in April 2013 with out of court disposals (OOCDs). Both deal informally with young people who are at a low risk of re-offending resulting in less offences being formally recorded. Poor practice is another issue which is likely to be a contributing factor. Due to the lag in this measure, this began before Portsmouth Youth Offending Team

Gov.uk Hidden Harm https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/120620/hidden-harm-full.pdf accessed 29/07/14 52 See previous strategic assessments 53 These are based on a 5 point scale, each point on the scale has fixed criteria and an improvement means a movement of at least one point on the scale towards the desired outcome. 54 The numbers and percentages included represent only those families where these factors were identified as an issue. 55 There is a lag of approximately 18 months for the Youth Justice rate of re-offending. The next data is due September 14.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 (PYOT) disaggregated from Wessex YOT, but a recent YOT inspection by HMIP has indicated that many of these issues have yet to be overcome.56 Table 4: Youth Offending trends in Portsmouth 2006/07 - 2013/14 No. of young offenders 57 (incl FTEs ) Young offenders as a proportion of the 10-17 population 58 No. of YRDs / OOCDs (not included in No. of young offenders) No. of FTEs (rate per 100,000 10-17yrs) from 59 YJMIS No. of offences

2006/07 2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

698

707

665

605

364

315

201

180

3.7%

4.0%

3.9%

3.5%

2.1%

1.8%

1.1% (1.6% with 1.0% YRDs)

52 244 (from Dec 09)

165

TBC

377 (2,097)

413 (2,289)

344 (1,911)

116 (646)

131 (738)

101 (583)

92 (532)

1513

1601

1369

1298

1036

993

687

624

This issue is being addressed by identifying priority young people who are committing five or more offences in a 12month period. The number of PYPs is a performance measure for the SPP but the details of these young people are passed to the Priority Young People group to enable targeted work to encourage them to engage with appropriate services. Since October 2013 and April 2014 the SPP has secured funding from the Office of the Police Crime Commissioner for direct work to be undertaken with a small number of these young people (between 2 and 4 at any one time). The SPP target for 2013/14 was a 5% reduction on the previous year (45 young people or less) and this target was met at the end of quarter 4 2013/14. Because of the time lag for the re-offending data so it is too early to see whether the work with priority offenders is having an impact, but if it is we should see a continued reduction over the next year. Table 5: Young offenders committing 5 or more offences in a 12 month rolling period Rolling 12 months period April 11 - March 12 (baseline) April 12 - March 13 July 12 - June 13 Oct 12 - Sept 13 Jan 13 - Dec 13 April 13 - March 14

No. of young people committing 5 or more offences 62 48 37 40 47 43

J.Gardner, PYOT Manager - email dated 08/08/14 First Time Entrants 58 Youth Restorative Disposals and Out of Court Disposals 59 Youth Justice Management Information System 60 The YJMIS figures for the end of 2013/14 are not available yet - so this figure is Jan - Dec 2013 57

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 While the number of offenders committing five or more offences has reduced, the average number of offences that they are responsible for (n9.23) is slightly higher than in 2007/08 (n8.54) and when the priority young people group was set up in Jan 2013 (n9.04). This could indicate that the group is working more effectively with those who have committed comparatively fewer offences (e.g. 5-10, rather than 15 or more).

Offences Theft is now the most common offence committed by young women (28%, n42), just overtaking violence (27%, n41). The number of violent offences has not changed since last year, but the number of thefts has increased by 27% (n9).

Number of offences

Figure 5: Common offences committed by young women 2009/10 - 2013/14 200 150

2009/10

100

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

Theft and Violence Criminal Handling Against the Damage Person

Public Order

Breach of Statutory Order

2013/14

The top four types of offence committed by young men have not changed since last year: theft (26%, n124), violence (19%, n92), criminal damage (13%, n60) and drugs (7%, n33). The number of domestic burglaries has reduced to levels seen in 2010/11 (n21).

Number of offences

Figure 6: Common offences committed by young men 2009/10 - 2013/14 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Theft and Violence Criminal Handling Against Damage the Person

Drugs

Motoring Breach of Domestic Statutory Burglary Order

Public Order

2013/14

Outcomes There has been a big change to how the police and youth offending teams deal with low level offences by low risk offenders in the last year. Out of court disposals have replaced final warnings, reprimands 20

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 and youth restorative disposals (triage). Very broadly, youth cautions and youth conditional cautions have replaced final warnings and reprimands and still appear in the figures as 'substantive outcomes'. Community resolutions have replaced youth restorative disposals and are recorded separately by the Portsmouth Youth Offending Team (PYOT). One of the main differences with the new disposals is that that they are not escalatory and the therefore the most appropriate outcome can be given for each offence.61 The data for OOCDs is currently being cleaned and is not available for use in this report. This data will need to be analysed once it becomes available. ď&#x20AC;Ś Over 50% (n323) of young people who received a substantive outcome were given a youth rehabilitation order. This has been the most common type of outcome for the last four years although the proportion of young people receiving it has been increasing in the last few years from 34.5% (n357) in 2010/11. Referral orders were the next most common outcome (13.3, n83) followed by youth conditional cautions (8.3%, n52), conditional discharges (7.1%, n44), detention and training orders (5.3%, n33) and youth cautions (5%, n31). The main change in outcomes since 2012/13, is that we are seeing youth conditional cautions and youth cautions, while no final warnings or reprimands were recorded. The other notable change is that the proportion of young people receiving a detention and training order (custody) has decreased by 62% (n54) from 12.7% (n87) to 5.3% (n33). The custody rate is also a performance measure for the SPP as this is another area where Portsmouth had been performing badly, and there is a huge cost implication for Portsmouth City Council. The custody rate began to increase from 0.83 per 1,000 in 2009/10 and had risen to a peak of 1.35 in 2011/12, which was much higher than the national average of 0.82 and slightly higher than the average for similar areas (1.29). There have been recent reductions and at the end of 2013/14 the rate was 0.69, which only just missed the target of being below the average for similar areas (0.66) although was still higher than the national average (0.44).

Offender profile In 2013/14 only about a fifth (21%, n37) of young offenders were female, which is numerically the lowest ratio since we began collecting this information in 2005/06. The peak age for young offenders, both male and female, was 16 years (n46 and n13 respectively). Of all wards, Charles Dickens ward had the highest rate of young offenders (1,791 per 100,000, n26), followed by St Thomas (1,489 per 100,000, n14) and Paulsgrove (1,271 per 100,000, n21). These have been the top three areas since 2008/09 and are target areas for positive activities or other interventions. In 2013/14, PYOT completed 232 assessments (Assets) for 152 young offenders. For each section there is a summary score which gives an indication about whether a particular issue is thought to be linked to offending behaviour for the individual. 41% (n61) of young offenders had some association between drinking alcohol and / or taking drugs and 34% (n52) had an association with emotional and mental health that was linked to their offending behaviour. Additionally a number of young offenders reported family factors, although there is no indication about whether these family factors are likely to have had an impact on offending behaviour. 43% reported specific issues: 26% (n40 stated that they had experienced abuse or neglect, 23% (n35) had witnessed family violence, 21% (n32) had a member of the family who had been involved in criminal activity, 11% 61

For further information about OOCs please contact the community safety research team.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 (n16) had a family member with a substance misuse issue and 10% (n15) had a family member with an alcohol misuse issue.62 This means that some young people are experiencing more than one family issue, particularly where they had reported abuse - where just over half had also witnessed family violence (n21).

Substance misuse Preliminary findings from the Children's Society survey 2013/14 found that there was very little change in reported smoking, alcohol consumption and cannabis use from last year63 with young people in Portsmouth still more likely to drink and smoke than the national average. 

     

Alcohol is the most commonly used substance; 53% of respondents reported that they had had a whole alcoholic drink, not just a sip, which is the same as 2013 but 10% decrease (from 59%) since 2012.64 16% of young people had been drunk in the last four weeks (compared to 16% in 2013). 7% smoked regularly (either daily or weekly, compared to 7% in 2013). 8% had used cannabis in the last year (compared with 7% in 2013). 37% reported that their parents provided alcohol. Friends were the most common source of cigarettes, tobacco and drugs. Year 10 pupils were significantly more likely to have had an alcoholic drink, been drunk twice or more in the four weeks prior to the survey, smoke regularly and used cannabis than year 8 pupils.

The most recent national survey of smoking, drinking and drug use (2013)65 found that 39% of pupils aged 11-15 had had at least one alcoholic drink, and that 3% smoked regularly and this was a slight reduction on the 2012 survey. Although the methodology is different (pupils from years 7 to 11 completed questionnaires), this indicates that young people in Portsmouth may be more likely to drink and smoke than the national average. Cannabis was the most commonly used drug and there was no change in the proportion of pupils who had used cannabis in the last year (7%). Young people who were considered vulnerable, including those who had been excluded or who truanted had an increased risk of problematic drug use. The rate of under 18's admitted to hospital with alcohol-specific conditions has been falling for the last few years; between 2010/11 and 2012/13 there were 38.7 admissions per 100,000 children and young people aged 0-17 years which is a 36% decrease from the previous period (2007/08 to 2009/10). The most recent local rate is lower than both the England average (44.9 admissions per 100,000 young people) and the average for similar areas (56.8 per 100,000 young people). Substance misuse hospital admissions for young people aged 15-24 years were slightly lower in Portsmouth (74.1 per 100,000) than nationally (75.2) and similar areas (74.8).66 Very few young people develop dependency, so those who use substances problematically are likely to be vulnerable and experiencing a range of problems. This means that young people needing treatment 62

Family criminality, alcohol and substance misuse were just for the preceding 6 months. 920 pupil from years 8 and 10 at 6 secondary schools participated in the 2014 survey compared with 1,608 from all 11 secondary schools in 2012. Further details will be available once the report is finalised. Headlines obtained from Public Health Intelligence Team. 64 There may be confusion about whether alcopops are alcohol, so caution should be exercised when interpreting this result. 65 http://www.hscic.gov.uk/catalogue/PUB14579/smok-drin-drug-youn-peop-eng-2013-rep.pdf accessed 28/07/14 66 PHE: http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile accessed 31/07/14.The crude rate is worked out over a three year period 2010/11 to 2012/13 because the numbers of young people are so small. 63

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 have very different needs to adults, often requiring harm reduction, psychosocial or family interventions rather than treatment for addiction.67 Figure 7: Referrals to young people's substance misuse treatment services 2013-14 Outreach School Nurse A&E YP Housing Targeted Youth Support Concerned Others Looked After Children Adult Treatment Provider Universal Education Self Children & Family Services Hospital YOT YPs Treatment Provider 0

Number of referrals

In 2013-14, 68 young people68 were referred to and assessed69 by substance misuse treatment services. Almost all were British white (96%, n65), there were slightly more males than females (56%, n38) and most were aged 15 years or over (91%, n62). Most were referred to either Switch70 (56%, n38) or the Health Improvement and Development Service (HIDS, 34%, n23) for treatment. HIDs provide a tier 2 service in schools, whereas Switch provides a tier 3 service. Most referrals were between HIDS and Switch (29%, n20) as young people either needed more or less support (see figure 7 above). Where primary substance was recorded, cannabis was the most common primary substance (60%, n32 - unspecified and skunk) followed by alcohol (21%, n11), which is broadly consistent with the proportions of young people in treatment nationally (68% and 24% respectively).71 39 young people exited treatment in 2013/14 and 79.5% (n31) of these were planned exits. This is a much greater proportion than is seen for adult treatment services (35%). The reasons behind this difference require further research and, if appropriate, any learning from young people services could be applied to adult services.ď&#x20AC;Ś

National Treatment Agency website: http://www.nta.nhs.uk/young-people.aspx accessed 23/07/14 Aged 10-17 years. 69 In 2013/14, Switch received 80 referrals in respect of young people under the age of 18, 56% (n45) of whom did not receive an assessment (usually as a result of the young people not wanting to engage with the service at that time). These referrals are not captured on Illy and so are not represented here. 70 Switch also work with the 18-25 year olds in treatment for substance misuse. This work is reported within the alcohol and drug misuse sections, although is not broken down to service provider level. 71 http://www.population-health.manchester.ac.uk/epidemiology/NDEC/factsandfigures/ypannualreport2012_13.pdf accessed 23/07/14 68

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

5. Alcohol misuse Alcohol misuse remains a top priority for the Safer Portsmouth Partnership; alcohol is a significant driver for anti-social behaviour, offending and reoffending and is an area in which there has been considerable investment, through prevention and treatment, since 2009. The excellent work undertaken in tackling alcohol related harm in the city was recognised at the 2014 Municipal Journal Awards, where the SPP were highly commended for 'Delivering Better Outcomes'. In July 2013 the remodelled alcohol treatment system went live alongside the drug treatment system, with one hub to manage client journeys.

Alcohol related hospital admissions In 2013/14, 606 individuals attended Safe Space,72 39% (n237) of whom required medical attention. Pain/injury was the chief reason for accessing the service in 32% (n194) of cases; this included a variety of complaints such as: chest pain, broken bones, head injuries, lacerations, etc. Visits to Accident and Emergency were avoided in 81% (n193) of the cases where medical attention was required, resulting in an approximate saving of £19,000.73 Between April and October 2013, there were 1,107 night-time (2100-0500) ambulance call-outs in the Portsmouth area.74 Of these, at least 37.5% (n415) were alcohol related75, which represents a 39.3% (n117) increase on the same period in 2012 (n298). This increase is in the context of a 95.6% increase in all night-time call-outs between 2012 and 2013, as such, a reduction was seen in the proportion of alcohol related call-outs between 2012 (52.7%) and 2013 (37.5%). So, whilst alcohol related incidents are placing an increasing demand on ambulance services across the city, this demand is not increasing at as steep a rate as could be expected, suggesting a potential improvement. However, further work is still needed to reduce the number of alcohol related call-outs. The highest proportion (16.2%, n67) of alcohol related, night-time call-outs in 2013 came from the 'PO1 2' postcode area (an area which includes the Guildhall night time economy area). This represents a 97.1% (n33) increase from 2012 (11.4%, n34).76 Weekend77 call-outs accounted for 51.7% (n214) of all alcohol related night-time call-outs across the city in 2013; a proportional reduction compared to 2012 (60.4%, n180). Of particular note is the 176.5% (n30) increase in call-outs seen on a Wednesday night. This is the first year that ambulance data has been available for analysis and it is particularly useful in providing a further indication as to the number of possible alcohol related incidents in night time economy areas. However, further research is needed to fully understand all of the changes, including what is driving them. 72

Safe Space is located in Guildhall Walk and is open on a Friday and Saturday night (2200-0300) as well as additional 'event specific' dates. Available services include: first aid, medical attention, advice, condoms, postal chlamydia testing, respite, flip flops and referrals to partner agencies. It is primarily for individuals experiencing effects that are related to the night time economy, including the excesses of alcohol and drugs. The aim of safe space is to ensure all patients receive the appropriate level of care, including preventing admissions to the Queen Alexandra hospital where patients do not require them. 73 Based on the Foundation Trust Network statistic that the average A&E visit cost between £69 and £129 (£99 assumed as an average for this purpose) in 2012. This does not include the cost of an ambulance call-out at £250, which may also have been necessary in some of these cases. 74 Data provided by Neil Cook, South Coast Ambulance Service. 75 This relates to call-outs where the 'master chief complaint' includes the words 'in drink'. As such this is likely to be a low estimate of the actual number of alcohol related call-outs, as a number of other complaints could be alcohol related, such as injuries sustained during alcohol-related violence. 76 The 'PO1 2' postcode area also had the highest proportion of call outs in 2012. 77 Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

Figure 8: Alcohol Related Hospital Admissions 2008/09 - 2012/13 2400

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The rate of alcohol related hospital admissions (see figure 8 above) is one of the main indicators used by the SPP; since 2008/09, local rates have been above both the South East and England.78 However, during this time we have seen smaller increases than other areas and the gap has narrowed. The rate for 2012/1379, of 2,012 per 100,000 population, is a reduction of 9.8% (n220 per 100,000) from 2011/12, while rates in other areas and nationally have increased or remained constant. This means that our rate is now slightly lower than the national average (2,032 per 100,000 population) and lower than the average for SPP similar areas.80

Gender profile Both males and females in Portsmouth have a higher rate of alcohol related deaths (both wholly and partially attributable to alcohol) and deaths due to chronic liver disease than England, the South East Region and the SPP MSG.81 Portsmouth falls in the ten worst performing local authorities nationally for alcohol specific mortality in females, with a rate of 13.4 deaths per 100,000. This represents a 4% (n0.57), increase on the previous period. The local male mortality rates for alcohol-specific conditions and for chronic liver disease are both significantly higher than the England rate. However, in the period 2010 to 2012, when compared to the previous period,82 alcohol specific and alcohol related mortality rates in males decreased by 17% (to 25.41 per 100,000 males) and 24% (to 74.76 per 100,000 males) respectively. Alcohol related mortality for females has decreased by 21% (to 78

Local Alcohol Profiles for England (Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West) accessed 25/04/2014 The figure presented here is for the period 2012/13 as the 2013/14 figures have not yet been released. The reported figure for 2012/13 is higher than the figure reported in last year's Update to the Strategic Assessment as this was a provisional figure that has been updated following a revision of methodology. The figures are not only higher for Portsmouth, but also for England, the South East, Brighton & Hove, Southampton and the MSG average. 80 The SPP similar areas / most similar group (MSG) are: Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southend-On-Sea, Sheffield and Southampton. 81 Local Alcohol Profiles for England (Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West) accessed 25/04/2014. Due to small sample sizes this rate is calculated over three years (2010-12). 82 Previous period calculated was 2009-2011. 79

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 33.21 per 100,000 females). Further to this, mortality from chronic liver disease amongst males reduced by 9% (to 23.36 per 100,000 males). In contrast, chronic liver disease has increased for females by 27% (to 12.57 per 100,000 females). Some caution should be exercised when interpreting these figures as the numbers involved are very small and are calculated over a three year period, making them at least one year out of date. Further, it should be noted that a number of alcohol related conditions, such as chronic liver disease, generally develop over a considerable period of time (10 to 20 years) and as such the impact of any work undertaken to combat these is seen in the long-term. The proportion of people (aged over 16 years) engaging in binge drinking in Portsmouth is higher than it is nationally and higher than it is for the SPP similar areas (average). It should be noted that this is a synthetic estimate based on 2007/08 data and more up-to-date data is not currently available, but will be made available via the planned Health and Lifestyle Survey. The Institute of Alcohol Studies suggests that a number of factors have contributed to increased alcohol use amongst women over the past few decades, including targeted advertising campaigns and socioeconomic changes. Statistics from the General Lifestyles Survey show that, in 2011 women in managerial and professional positions not only consumed more units of alcohol than the average female, but also drank more frequently during the week.83 Further research has shown that more educated women are more likely to: drink alcohol on 'most days' and report having problems due to their drinking patterns. This relationship is found to be stronger for females than males.84 In 2012, it was estimated that 9% (n6,125) of the male population (aged 18 to 64 years) and 3% (n2,178) of the female population (aged 18 to 64 years) in Portsmouth were alcohol dependent. Further, these figures are predicted to rise by 1.4% for males and 6.2% for females by 2020.85

Alcohol treatment services The latest data shows that 1,032 individuals were in treatment for alcohol misuse in 2013/14.86 This is a very slight decrease on the 2012/13 figure (n1,038), but represents a 70.6% (n433) increase on the 2009/10 baseline year (n605). When compared to the SPP similar areas Portsmouth ranks 2nd out of 8, with more individuals in treatment than: Southampton (n590), Brighton and Hove (n1,014) and the average (n751). Only Sheffield (n1,118) had more individuals in treatment than Portsmouth, however Sheffield has a population 2.7 times the size of Portsmouth. A change in the 'core data set' has meant the Alcohol Specialist Nurse Service at the Queen Alexandra hospital has not been able to record all of the patients on the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System in 2013/14.87 As such, an estimated 100 patients who received treatment in 2013/14 have not been included in the reported figure. 83

Office for National Statistics (2013) Drinking Tables Borgonovi, F., Huerta, M.C (2010)., 'Education, Alcohol Use and Abuse among Young Adults in Britain', Social Science & Medicine, 71: 1, pp. 143â&#x20AC;&#x201C;151, p. 1. 85 www.pansi.org.uk 86 National Drug Treatment Monitoring System, accessed 20/05/2014 87 Public Health England have advised the ASNS that certain patients cannot be recorded as the service provided for inpatients does not fit the parameters of their recording for planned, structured intervention, although the patients involved are in fact receiving an intervention. This has been raised at a national level and these patients will be recorded in the future. As such we can expect to see a more representative figure for the year 2014/15. 84

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

The largest age group in treatment was 40 to 44 year olds (16%, n165), closely followed by 35 to 39 year olds (15%, n156) and 45 to 49 year olds (15%, n155). This is the same for both males and females. Males accounted for 67% (n676) of those in treatment and females 33% (n350). Of those individuals who started new treatment journeys in 2013/14 (n657), the majority (56%, n365) had not received treatment previously. Looking at this same group, 14% (n91) were recorded as having a dual diagnosis and were receiving care from mental health services for reasons other than substance misuse. However, the number of people with mental health issues accessing these services could actually be much higher as this information was not recorded in 26% (n172) of cases. Further, some individuals may have a mental health issue that has not yet been diagnosed. A study on mental health centres and substance misuse services in the UK showed that 85% of alcohol service users had mental health problems, mostly affective disorders and anxiety disorders.88 Nationally, 20% (n198,600) of the estimated 1,008,850 alcohol related hospital admissions in 2012/13 were for mental and behavioural disorders due to alcohol.89 In 2013/14, 264 clients successfully completed treatment;90 these successful completions represent 25.7% of the treatment population as a whole. This is worse than the national figure (37.5%) and the average for our MSG (37.3%). This is the first year that this data has been available via NDTMS and as such it is not possible to compare performance to previous years.

Alcohol related crime and anti-social behaviour The results of the 2014 Community Safety Survey ranked street drinking as 4th on the list of anti-social behaviours perceived to be a problem in the local area (16% of respondents, n133). In addition, 12% (n97) of respondents reported having witnessed street drinking in the local area in the last twelve months. Street drinking was one of the main reasons for avoiding the three most avoided areas in Portsmouth (Somerstown, Buckland and Guildhall Walk).91 In 2013/14 the police recorded 130 incidents of anti-social behaviour related to street drinking in Portsmouth. This represents a 30% (n56) decrease from the previous year. 92 However, during the same period the community wardens recorded 53 incidents of street drinking, which represents an increase of over 200% compared to the previous year. Feedback from the community wardens suggests that they have been working more closely with street drinkers as a result of direction from the Community Tasking Groups, whereas previously this may not have been within their remit.93 This may suggest that the number of street drinking incidents has remained relatively stable but that incidents are being dealt with by different agencies.

Weaver et al (2003) Comorbidity of substance misuse and mental illness in community mental health and substance misuse services, The British journal of psychiatry, 183 (4), pp. 304-313. 89 Statistics on Alcohol Misuse: England 2014, Health & Social Care Information Centre, May 2014. It should be noted that this does not capture mental health problems exclusively and can include conditions such as acute intoxication or may be used as a catch-all. 90 Accessed via NDTMS on 09/09/2014 91 SPP S.Graves & N.Sandford-Smith, Community Safety Survey 2014: Headline Results 92 Data provided by the Hampshire Constabulary Eastern Area Research and Analysis Team. This is likely to be an under-representation of the number of anti-social behaviour incidents that were alcohol related or involved street drinking as it is a count of incidents that were classified specifically as street drinking. 93 Information provided by Warren Amor.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 The Reducing the Strength campaign was implemented in Portsmouth in November 2013, with the aim of reducing the amount of harm caused by super strength alcohol to individuals and communities. The campaign is still in its infancy but initial findings are positive. Prior to the start of the campaign, between November 2012 and February 2013, there were 43 alcohol related incidents94 in Cosham High Street. Since the campaign started, nearly all of the stores on Cosham High Street have stopped selling super strength alcohol95 and the number of alcohol related incidents reduced by 88.4% (n38) to five, for the same period 2013/14.96 Analysis of six current anti-social behaviour orders (ASBOs), issued since April 2013, shows that five were alcohol related, placing restrictions on being drunk or consuming alcohol in public places. All of these were issued to adults. Three of the four dispersal orders issued in 2013/1497 were alcohol related. In 2013/14 there were 81 fires recorded where the person 'involved' was suspected to be under the influence of alcohol. These account for 1.9% of all recorded fires and is similar to the figure for 2012/13 (2%, n78).98 Figure 9: Percentage change for night time economy violence 2013/14 Cen Southsea Commercial Rd Gunwharf Guildhall Northend Ports South Guild and Comm Total NTE violence -80.0%

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*Portsmouth South includes Palmerston Road and Osborne Road; Central Southsea includes Albert Road.

In 2013/14 there were 759 violent offences in the night-time economy in Portsmouth, which is an 18% (n166) reduction compared with 2012/13 and a 40% (n497) reduction when compared to the 2007/08 baseline (see figure 9 above).99 This decrease was seen across all night time economy areas, including Portsmouth South which had seen an increase in 2012/13. This suggests that the previous increase may have been a blip rather than a longer term change. Guildhall remains the area with the highest level of violence, with incidents in this area accounting for 30% of all night time economy violence. The figures on night time economy violence are a local measure, the parameters of which are provided in Annex C, and as such it is not possible to make a direct comparison to the picture nationally. 94

Crimes or ASB incidents Just one store is still selling super strength alcohol. 96 These figures were provided by PC Pete Rackham 97 Fratton (incl Derby Road), Cosham High Street and Waverly Park areas. 98 Data provided by Justine Gray, Hampshire Fire and Rescue Service. It should be noted that the relevant section of the reporting form is often not completed and as such this is likely to be an under estimation of the actual number of alcohol related fires. 99 This data is provided by Hampshire Constabulary 95

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

The Local Alcohol Profiles for England rank Portsmouth as having the 4th highest level of alcohol related violent crime out of 326 local authority areas in 2012/13, with a rate of 7.52 per 1,000 population.100 This compares to a rate of 3.93 per 1,000 nationally, 3.60 per 1,000 for the South East and an MSG average of 5.79 per 1,000. Portsmouth also has the 25th highest level of alcohol related recorded crime, with a rate of 9.02 per 1,000 population. This is above the rates for England and the MSG average (5.74 and 7.58 per 1,000 respectively). However, this figure is a modelled estimate based on alcohol attributable fractions for each crime category, therefore the higher rate is likely to be linked to the generally higher rate of violent crime in Portsmouth overall.101 As such, whilst the local measure indicates that night time economy violence is reducing across the city, it is not possible to conclusively compare our performance nationally.

Alcohol related conditional cautions In 2013/14, 53 alcohol related conditional cautions were issued, primarily for drunk and disorderly offences (58.5%, n31).102 The majority of individuals receiving cautions were male (90%, n53) and aged between 18 and 24 years (64%, n34). The conditions of the cautions include the offenders being required to attend two sessions designed to inform them of the dangers of alcohol; how it affects them and their behaviour as well as how their behaviour affects others in the community. In 88.7% (n47) of cases the individual fulfilled the conditions of their caution.

6. Drug misuse In 2013 there was substantial change to the substance misuse treatment services model in Portsmouth. Central to the new model is a Recovery Hub, managed by the Adult Social Care service. Drug misuse is one of the priorities for the Safer Portsmouth Partnership and the number of successful drug treatment completions is one of the few areas where we did not meet the target we set in 2013/14. With the 'hub and spoke' model of treatment services having gone live in July 2013 we anticipated a lull in performance whilst the new system established itself. Although the new model has managed to increase the number of people accessing drug treatment, improvements in the numbers successfully completing treatment had not been achieved before the end of 2013/14. The latest available estimate is that there were 1,549 opiate and crack cocaine users (OCU's) in Portsmouth in 2011/12 (10.90 per 1,000 people aged 15 to 64 years).103 This is a 24.9% increase on the 2010/11 rate (8.73 per 1,000) and is in contrast to reductions in the rate both nationally (3.1%) and in the south east (1.9%). The rate in Portsmouth is higher than the national and South East rates but lower than the average for our most similar group (MSG), where we rank fourth out of eight104. However, Portsmouth has seen the greatest increase of all the areas in our MSG, where the average change from 100

Local Alcohol Profiles for England (Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West) accessed 25/04/2014 Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West, Local Alcohol Profiles for England, accessed 25/04/2014. 102 Data provided by John Cross, Community Health Practitioner. Data on conditional cautions was collected for the first time in April 2013 and as such it is not possible to compare this figure to previous years. The number of alcohol related conditional cautions represent a very small proportion of all alcohol related crime; this is because only certain offences are cautionable (generally speaking the less serious offences). 103 Hay et al (2014), Estimates of the prevalence of opiate and/or crack cocaine use (2011/12)' 104 The SPP similar areas / most similar group (MSG) are: Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southend-On-Sea, Sheffield and Southampton. 101

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 2010/11 to 2011/12 was a reduction of 0.9%. This increase locally is largely the result of a rise in the estimated number of opiate users, which increased by 28.6% compared to the previous estimate. However, it should be noted that this is a modelled estimate which uses a number of data sources (drug treatment, police, probation and prison) as well as the relationship between indicators to 'identify' the hidden population, therefore this statistic should be treated with caution. It is possible that this figure has been skewed by improvements / changes in recording in one of these areas (for example the increase in adults engaging in treatment) and so the reasons behind this increase require further research.ď&#x20AC;Ś In 2012, it was estimated that 5% (n3,168) of the male population (aged 18 to 64 years) and 2% (n1,518) of the female population (aged 18 to 64 years) in Portsmouth were dependent on drugs. Further, these figures are predicted to rise by 1.4% for males and 6.2% for females by 2020.105 Nationally, the Crime Survey for England and Wales 2013/14 estimated that 8.8% of 16 to 59 year olds had taken an illicit drug in the last year, up from 8.1% in 2012/13. This figure more than doubled when looking specifically at 16 to 24 year olds (18.9%), which is also an increase from the proportion in 2012/13 (16.2%).106 This is in contrast to the finding from the Children's Society Survey 2013/14, that drug use amongst school age children in Portsmouth has remained broadly the same.107

Treatment services The latest data108 shows a substantial increase (14%, n103) in the number of adults effectively engaged in drug treatment109 (see figure 10 below). This suggests that the slight reduction in 2012 was likely the result of the remodelling of services across the city, as previously proposed. It would now seem that integrated service delivery may be having a positive impact on the number of adults effectively engaged, above the levels recorded between April 2009 and March 2013. However, we are yet to see an improvement in the proportion of individuals successfully completing treatment. The ages of those in treatment are similar to the previous three years, but the proportion of females in treatment has decreased from 31% (n264) in 2011 to 29% (n271) in the last year. The proportion of females in treatment locally is still higher than the national figure (26.6%).110 Of the 852 individuals in treatment in 2013, 408 were starting a new treatment journey. Of these, 18% (n74) were considered to have a dual diagnosis and were receiving care from mental health services for reasons other than substance misuse.111 However, the number of people with mental health issues accessing these services could be much higher as this information was not always recorded. 112 Some individuals may have a mental health issue that has not yet been diagnosed or may not reach the threshold for support. Indeed, a study on mental health centres and substance misuse services in the UK showed that three quarters of drug service users had mental health problems (mostly affective

105

www.pansi.org.uk Home Office. Drug Misuse: Findings from the 2013 to 2014 Crime Survey for England and Wales. 107 Headlines obtained from V. Toomey, Public Health Analyst 108 For the period January 2013 to December 2013, accessed via NDTMS on 20/05/2014 109 To be defined as 'in effective treatment' an individual must have been in treatment for a period of 12 weeks and have commenced at least one modality during that time. 110 Health & Social Care Information Centre (2013) Statistics on Drug Misuse: England. 111 Accessed via NDTMS on 21/05/2014 112 This is a recording issue which has been flagged with the appropriate persons. 106

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 disorders113 and anxiety disorders) and that nearly 40% of drug users had not received help for their mental health problems.114 The Portsmouth City Council (PCC) 'dual diagnosis pledge' aims to improve the support and treatment for people with co-existing mental health and alcohol/drug difficulties by making it accessible and flexible, tailoring services to meet the needs of the individual (including their wider social needs). To date, benefits of the pledge have included agreed 115 rapid prescribing of antidepressants and low dose anti-psychotic prescriptions. Figure 10: Number of adults in effective drug treatment (rolling twelve month period)

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In Portsmouth, the rate of hospital admissions with a primary or secondary diagnosis of a 'drugrelated mental health and behavioural disorder' was 175 per 100,000 population in 2012/13.116 This is higher than the figure for Southampton (110 per 100,000), Brighton and Hove (160 per 100,000) and the South Central Strategic Health Authority (66 per 100,000).117 Nationally this figure has been increasing year on year and in 2012/13 it was almost twice as high as it was in 2002/03 (115 per 100,000 and 65 per 100,000 respectively).118 In comparison, the rate for Portsmouth in 2012/13 represents a decrease on the rate for 2011/12 (219 per 100,000). When looking just at admissions to hospital with a primary diagnosis of a 'drug-related mental health and behavioural disorder' nationally, more people aged 24 to 34 were admitted than any other age group, accounting for 33.4% (n2,185) of all such admissions.119 This is in contrast to the fact that drug use was highest amongst 16 to 19 (16.4%) and 20 to 24 (16.2%) year olds120 and may therefore be related to more prolonged substance misuse. 113

Also known as mood disorders, e.g. depression, bipolar disorder and anxiety disorder. Weaver et al (2003) Comorbidity of substance misuse and mental illness in community mental health and substance misuse services, The British journal of psychiatry, 183 (4), pp. 304-313. 115 With GPs and the dual diagnosis nurse. 116 Health & Social Care Information Centre (2013) Statistics on Drug Misuse: England. 117 It is not possible to provide figures for the SPP MSG as the available data relates to PCT areas which do not match all of the MSG areas. 118 It should be noted that there has been an increase in the coding of secondary conditions on a national level during this period. It is therefore likely that increases are at least partly due to improvements in recording. 119 Health & Social Care Information Centre (2013) Statistics on Drug Misuse: England. 120 Home Office. Drug Misuse: Findings from the 2012 to 2013 Crime Survey for England and Wales 114

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

In 2013, 68% (n395) of the 579 injectors in Portsmouth received Hepatitis C virus tests. This is an improvement against last year (65%), but worse than our MSG average (81%) and substantially worse than Southampton (89%) and Brighton and Hove (91%).121 This is a potential area for improvement, although the Health Protection Services sentinel surveillance of testing suggests that levels of testing have stabilised since 2008, possibly as a result of testing saturation among the pool of easy to access individuals.122 The latest estimates suggest that there are 653 infected individuals in Portsmouth; 413 who currently inject drugs and 136 who have previously injected drugs. These individuals represent 50.4% of the population who are thought to be currently injecting drugs, or who have injected previously. It is estimated that the annual drug cost of treating newly diagnosed infections is ÂŁ217,000 and the total drug cost to treat the backlog of current infections would be ÂŁ1,197,000 in Portsmouth. 123 National data sources show that hepatitis C related hospital admissions and deaths are increasing; between 1996 and 2012 deaths from hepatitis C quadrupled.124 According to the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Survey needle sharing is falling nationally, with rates of direct sharing at 16% among all current injectors in 2013; down from 32% in 2001. However, sharing remains high among younger people who inject drugs; 31% of those aged under 25 years reported sharing in 2013.125 Locally, however, 25% (n140) of the individuals accessing treatment services in Portsmouth, who indicated that they were currently injecting or had injected in the past, reported that they had shared a needle at some time in their life. This suggests that needle sharing, or a history of, is more common in Portsmouth than it is nationally. During 2013/14, 285,448 needles were issued across Portsmouth, a 50.8% (n96,206) increase from the previous year. As the enhanced needle exchange service, which includes the pharmacy scheme, was essentially in its first year in 2012/13, the increase seen in 2013/14 is likely to be the result of increased awareness and the service having established itself.126 However, it could also be indicative of a decrease in sharing practices, or alternatively, an increase in the number of individuals injecting / frequency of injecting in the city.

Treatment outcomes The number of planned exits from the treatment system is another of the main SPP indicators. In 2013/14, 304 clients left the treatment system, 35% (n106) of these were planned exits,127 down on the 38% recorded for 2012/13 and worse than the average for our MSG (41.6%). Further to this, planned exits represent 11.2% of the treatment population as a whole. 128 This is similar to the figure from last year (11.4%), but less than the national figure (14.9%) and the MSG average (12.8%). One possible explanation for this year's performance is that a number of inactive cases were nominally transferred over to the new system that then had to be closed as unplanned exits. If this is the case then we can expect to see an improvement in the figures in 2014/15; this will need careful monitoring.ď&#x20AC;Ś Initial analysis shows that the number of successful completions for self-referrals is 44.6% (n54), compared to 33.3% (n46) of criminal justice referrals and 52.5% of 'other' referrals129. This could be related to an 121

Accessed via NDTMS on 21/05/2014 http://www.hpa.org.uk/ssbbv 123 Commissioning template for estimating HCV prevalence by DAT and numbers eligible for treatment, Public Health England, Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, 28/02/2014 124 The Hepatitis C Trust (2013) The Uncomfortable Truth, Hepatitis C in England: The State of the Nation. 125 Public Health England (2014) Data tables of the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Survey of HIV and Hepatitis in People Who Inject Drugs. 126 Email received from Steve Daley, 19/08/2014 127 Accessed via NDTMS on 21/05/2014 128 Successful completions as a percentage of the whole treatment population is a National Treatment Agency performance measure. 129 For the purposes of this analysis, 'other' referrals include referrals from any agency that is not related to the criminal justice service or any person who is not the client. This category is mainly comprised of other substance misuse services and health services but can include 122

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 individual's motivation, however, where individuals were referred by criminal justice agencies and did not successfully complete treatment, the most common treatment exit was transfer to custody (48.9% of all unsuccessful completions, n45)130. Such transfers may or may not have been related to the individual's substance misuse. This is an area that requires further analysis.ď&#x20AC;Ś The Treatment Outcomes Profile (TOP) is a clinical tool used by treatment services to review an individual's progress towards recovery aims.131 It records reported drug use at the start and end of treatment and the results show an overall decrease in the use of all substances, see figure 11 below. Of the 83 individuals who reported injecting as problematic at the initial TOP assessment, 24 had injected in the 28 days prior to their initial TOP assessment. Of those 24, 83% (n20) had stopped injecting by treatment exit. For the remaining four who did not stop, the average days injecting had reduced to five days (in the past 28) by the end of treatment, down from 16.2 days at the start of treatment. At the initial TOP assessment stage, 20 clients reported being involved in at least one of the following criminal activities: shoplifting, other thefts, selling drugs and assaults. By the end of treatment all of these clients reported to have ceased these activities.132 For 73 clients surveyed, there were average improvements seen for psychological health (51%, n5.1), physical health (30%, n3.3) and quality of life (56%, n5.5) scores.133 Figure 11: Substance Misuse 2013/14

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*In the 28 days prior to the assessment being undertaken. Data taken from the NDTMS Treatment Outcome Profiles Report 2013/14.

There appears to be very little or no longitudinal follow-up data relating to individuals who have completed treatment. A successful outcome is defined over a relatively short period of time and so it is possible that many clients go on to relapse after this time. Further research is recommended that tracks housing providers, families, friends, etc. 130 'Transfer to custody' is currently considered to be an unsuccessful completion. This is because it is not currently possible to match community data to prison data on NDTMS in order to establish if an individual has continued with their treatment in custody (as currently happens when an individual transfers between services in the community). The intention is for data to be matched in the future so that transfers in custody can be accurately recorded as either successful or unsuccessful. 131 To ensure that the analysis of TOP data is robust, results are not reported until an area reaches the threshold of TOP compliance, which is set at 80%. Portsmouth reached this level of compliance for the first time in 2013/14 and as such this data cannot be compared to previous years. 132 Caution should be exercised when interpreting these figures as they are based on small sample sizes and rely on accurate and honest self-reporting. 133 These scores are based on a scale which individuals rate themselves against.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 a cohort of individuals (both young people and adults) over a period of several years to see what happens, in reality, to clients with substance misuse issues in the long-term.  The Drug Treatment Outcomes Research Study134 evaluated the long- term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of drug treatment and concluded that drug treatment: reduces the harm caused to communities from drug addiction, is effective in improving the physical and mental health of the individual seeking treatment and has around an 80% chance of being cost-effective for that individual. Further, that it reduces crime, in particular acquisitive crime.135 The latest national estimate is that every £1 spent in drug treatment saves £2.50136 in costs to society. The approximate budget for substance misuse (drugs and alcohol) services in Portsmouth for 2014/15 is £5,000,000. This includes specialist treatment services such as residential or community rehabilitation as well as non-treatment services designed to prevent or reduce the harm caused by substance misuse, such as street pastors. This is slightly less than the budget for 2013/14 as £150,000 worth of savings have been made this year and further savings will be sought next year. 137

Novel psychoactive substances Novel Psychoactive Substances (NPS) are defined as those emerging substances that are used for psychotropic effects and that are not subject to control under law. NPS are appealing to consumers for a number of reasons, including: ease of availability, affordability, 'legal' status and the perception that they are therefore, 'safe', as well as their potential to produce unique subjective effects. There has been an explosion of the market in recent years with a huge number of chemicals currently available, vast potential for more to be developed and well established legitimate distribution networks meaning products are rapidly bought to market.138 They go by a variety of generic / slang terms, including: legal highs, research chemicals, herbal highs, bath salts, etc. and are often sold under brand names. This causes problems with misidentification and mislabelling which can result in many users, and even sellers, not being able to accurately report use of products.139 Research is lacking on these drugs and there is little scientific evidence of the acute and long-term health harms of NPS (including psychological health) as well as the potential for overdose, how addictive they are and even what they actually contain.140 As such there is an incomplete understanding of the public health and societal impact of NPS. However, the drug related deaths report for 2012 reports that NPS were found in the post mortem toxicology of 97 individuals nationwide, which is an increase of more than 700% (n85) from 2009.141 There is also some evidence which suggests that use of synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (chemicals that are designed to mimic cannabis) is associated with acute 134

http://www.dtors.org.uk/reports/DTORS_CostEffect_Main.pdfNTA/NHS National Treatment Agency (2012) Estimating the crime reduction benefits of drug treatment and recovery 136 It is of note that this is a reduction on the previous NTA estimate. As per the 2006/07 Strategic Assessment, "It is estimated that for every £1 spent on treatment, £4 is saved by the criminal justice system. When other associated health and social costs are included £1 spent on treatment saves £9." This reduction is, at least in part, the result of a revision of the costs included in the estimate in order to make it robust enough to withstand scrutiny. The estimate now includes only those costs that are clearly attributable to the consequences of drug use. 137 Figures provided by Barry Dickinson. This is not an exhaustive list of services. 138 Winstock, A. and Ramsey, J. (2010) Legal highs and the Challenges for Policy Makers. Addiction. Vol 105. 10: 1685-1687. 139 www.erowid.org 140 Novel Psychoactive Substances - Challenges and policy responses, ALICE RAP Policy Paper Series, Policy Brief 3 141 Drug-related deaths in the UK: January-December 2012, http://www.sgul.ac.uk/research/projects/icdp/our-workprogrammes/pdfs/drd_ar_2013.pdf. This report considers substances brought under control by legislation after being examined by the ACMD; being considered for control/regulation; or still legal. 135

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 kidney injury (something which is not observed with cannabis use itself) and that they may precipitate acute psychotic symptomatology in predisposed individuals, or exacerbate symptomatology in those with a previous psychiatric history.142 Anecdotally there is concern amongst treatment services that NPS could act as a gateway to other illegal drugs or result in relapse for those individuals who have misused illegal drugs in the past.143 The paucity of research includes a lack of evidence of the association between NPS use and crime. Most NPS are manufactured and imported from outside the EU; however, law enforcement agencies in Member States (including the UK) are increasingly reporting local production, and in some cases distribution by organised criminal groups'.144 There are few estimates of the prevalence of NPS use, particularly in key groups with an increased propensity to use. However, the internet delivered Global Drugs Survey (2013) found that 12% of UK respondents reported buying NPS in the previous 12 months.145 Findings from the Crime Survey for England and Wales 2013/14 show that 2.3% of adults aged 16 to 59 years had taken nitrous oxide146 in the last year, which is similar to the figure for 2012/13 (2%). This figure increases to 7.6% when looking specifically at 16 to 24 year olds, up from 6.1% in 2012/13.147 Although specialist 'club drug' treatment services report clients with problematic NPS use, the number of presentations is low. In 2012/13, 1,630 over-18s started treatment for mephedrone, an 81% (n730) increase from 2011/12148. Whilst this is still less than 1% of all presentations it could be indicative of the emergence of a trend and may need monitoring.ď&#x20AC;Ś In Portsmouth in 2013, 10 of the adults and two of the young people in treatment reported a NPS as either their main, second or third problem drug, up from no-one last year.149 Anecdotal evidence from the community wardens and treatment services indicates that NPS are an increasing problem locally, with users reporting adverse physical and psychological experiences beyond those found with illegal drugs, some of which have required medical attention / hospitalisation. Further research is needed into the extent of NPS use and their impact amongst both young people and adults in Portsmouth.ď&#x20AC;Ś

The link between drug misuse and crime A recent paper by the Home Office150 highlights that the peak of the 'heroin epidemic' in the mid-1990s correlates with the peak levels of crime, suggesting that the reducing level of opiate use since then, particularly among younger age groups and addicted populations (either through successful treatment, ceasing drug use of their own accord or death), has contributed to the reduction in crime over the last decade.151 Indeed, research found that drug treatment in the community can reduce offending, and the 142

Novel Psychoactive Substances - Challenges and policy responses, ALICE RAP Policy Paper Series, Policy Brief 3 Winstock, A. and Ramsey, J. (2010) Legal highs and the Challenges for Policy Makers. 144 Novel Psychoactive Substances - Challenges and policy responses, ALICE RAP Policy Paper Series, Policy Brief 3 145 Novel Psychoactive Substances - Challenges and policy responses, ALICE RAP Policy Paper Series, Policy Brief 3 146 Also known as laughing gas. 147 Home Office. Drug Misuse: Findings from the 2013 to 2014 Crime Survey for England and Wales. 2012/13 was the first year that questions were included on legal emerging drugs. 148 Drug Statistics from the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (2013), Public Health England 149 Accessed via NDTMS on 10/07/2014 150 N. Morgan (2014) The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990 and its effect on crime trends then and now: Technical Report 151 It is not possible to replicate this research locally due to data limitations over such an extensive period. However, it is likely that any fall in the number of drug users in Portsmouth, specifically those who fund their drug use through acquisitive crime, would contribute to an overall decrease in recorded crime 143

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 longer offenders were in treatment, the better the outcomes; the total number of crimes committed by users almost halved following the start of treatment.152 However, the relationship between drug misuse and offending is a complex one and can extend beyond acquisitive offending to fund drug misuse. Evidence suggests that those with mental health issues and / or substance misuse problems are more likely to be both a victim of crime as well as an offender, and that this can include violent crimes.153 Indeed, research suggests that a combination of a psychosis and co-morbid use of drugs results in a higher rate and severity of violence than in a population with psychosis and no co-morbid substance use.154 Whilst detection of drug offences is linked to proactive policing and isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t a useful way to measure trends in drug use or related crime, according to the Hampshire Constabulary Portsmouth Strategic Summary 2014155, a number of violent incidents have been linked to drugs in this period; including robberies, kidnapping, aggravated burglary and assault. However, only 1.3% (n225) of crimes recorded by the police in 2013/14 were logged as 'affected by drugs' or 'affected by drink and drugs'. This figure is likely to be artificially low; in the majority of cases the police record 'not known' in this data field or leave it blank. Whilst this represents an 11.9% (n24) increase from the previous year, this figure is unlikely to reflect the true extent of drug-related crime in the city. This figure may, to some extent, reflect where a crime is committed by an individual under the influence of drugs, or to fund the habit of a known user (e.g. possession or theft). However, it is unlikely to capture all crimes that are committed in relation to drugs, for example, where individuals are either not under the influence of or in possession of drugs, where the offender is unknown or where such crimes go unreported entirely (e.g. dealers assaulting users or runners). Many of the incidents referred to in the police Strategic Summary are received as intelligence rather than reports of crime, because the victims are often reluctant to formalise complaints. During 2013/14, 828 drug offences were recorded in Portsmouth, a decrease of 10.8% (n100) when compared to the previous period.156 Further to this, 59 drugs related conditional cautions were issued for possession offences in 2013/14 and 90% (n53) of these cautions were successfully fulfilled. The majority of individuals receiving conditional cautions were male (90%, n53) and aged between 18 and 34 (86%, n51).157 In the 2014 Community Safety Survey, 9.8% of respondents felt that drug use / dealing / littering caused problems in their area and 5.7% of respondents reported to have experienced drug related anti-social behaviour in the past 12 months.158 In 2013/14 the police recorded 30 anti-social behaviour incidents that were related to drugs paraphernalia, for example used syringes, in the area.159 In comparison, 143 reports of drug litter were recorded by the PCC Transport and Environment department in 2013/14, the 152

Millar et al (2008) Changes in offending following prescribing treatment for drug misuse Crome et al (2009) The relationship between dual diagnosis: substance misuse and dealing with mental health issues 154 Erkiran et al (2006) Substance abuse amplifies the risk for violence in schizophrenia spectrum disorder, Addictive behaviours, 31, 10, pp.1797-1805 155 st st Hampshire Constabulary, Research & Analysis Eastern Area, Portsmouth Strategic Summary, 1 April 2013 - 31 January 2014 156 st Comparing 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014 (n828) with 1st April 2012 to 31 March 2013 (n928) 157 Data provided by John Cross, Community Health Practitioner. Data on conditional cautions was collected for the first time in April 2013 and as such it is not possible to compare this figure to previous years. 158 SPP S.Graves & N.Sandford-Smith, Community Safety Survey 2014: Headline Results 159 Data provided by the Hampshire Constabulary Eastern Area Research and Analysis Team, Business Objects. 153

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 majority of which related to needles (56.6%, n81).160 This represents a decrease of 31.3% (n65) on the overall figure for 2012/13. The main areas where drug litter was found in 2013/14 were:  Guildhall Square and Walk (14%). This is a popular night time economy area.  Paradise Street (8%). This is behind Tesco on Commercial Road with a nearby public convenience.  Derby Road, Stamshaw (7%). This is also behind a commercial area with a nearby public convenience.  Quinton Close, Somerstown (8%). These reports relate solely to a communal building and were all made between January and March 2014.

7. Violence and domestic abuse Violent crime consists largely of assaults but also includes most serious violence, harassment, public order, robbery and sexual offences accounting for 29% of the total crime in Portsmouth in 2013/14. In 2013/14, 4,870 violent offences were reported to police which was 8% (n395) less than the previous year and 22% less than the baseline year of 2007/08 (n1,384).161 The rate of violent crime is 23.5 per 1,000 for Portsmouth which is still higher than the rate for other similar areas 162 (20.4 per 1,000 ranging from 11 to 25.9). This is in the context of falls in: national reported violence to the Crime Survey of England and Wales (22%), serious violence related attendances in emergency departments and walk-in centres (12%) and hospital admissions for assaults (15%) from 2012.163 However, national police recorded crime increased by 6%, which is likely to be due a national improvement in reporting and recording of domestic abuse and renewed focus on the accuracy of crime recording. 164 We have seen continued good performance against the SPP targets for 'violence against the person with injury' and 'night time economy related violence;' both of which were RAG rated green throughout 2012/13 and 2013/14 (see appendix B for full performance summary). In order to deal with violent crime from a partnership perspective, it is more useful to consider the motivational factors rather than the degree of violence. The table below shows the breakdown of assaults165 by driver (Table 6, below).166

160

Data provided by Lynne Lennard includes reports from the public, contractors and staff. From iQuanta website: https://iquanta.projectfusion.com accessed July 2014. 162 SPP similar areas are Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Bournemouth, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southend-On-Sea, Sheffield and Southampton. 163 ONS 2014 Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_371127.pdf CSEW states that the reduction may be exaggerated due to sampling variability. These figures are for the calendar year 2013 compared with 2012. 164 ONS 2014 Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_371127.pdf 165 It has not been possible to apply the same methodology accurately over this time period due to changes in home office categories, recording and codes. Therefore a simple approach has been used and backdated for 2011/12-2013/14. This analysis used assaults and wounding (except on a constable) where there were no indications that the violence was related to another type of offence (1b violence with injury and 1c violence without violence). 166 Data provided by Hampshire Constabulary - Strategic data report from Business Objects. 161

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Table 6: Violence by motivation Drivers of violence Domestic

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

25.1% (n1,048)

27.4% (n1,106)

26% (n1,101) 1.4% (n59)

29.5% (n1,098) 0.7% (n26)

30.5% (n990) 1.8% (n57)

4.9% (n207)

4.3% (n160)

4.9% (n159)

15.9% (n593) 1.9% (n69) 1.8% (n68) 0.4% (n14) 0.1% (n2) 0.6% (n21) 55.1% (n2,051)

13.1% (n426) 2.3% (n74) 1.6% (n52) 0.2% (n7) 0.1% (n2) 0.3% (n11) 54.7% (n1,778)

By spouse (not flagged as domestic) By family member (not flagged as domestic) Between 20:00 and 05:00hrs in night time economy 15% streets (NTE) (n740)

15.4% (n689)

Licenced premises (excluding NTE) Hate crime: race / religion / HBV Hate crime: sexual orientation

12.7%

167

2% (n81) 0.4% (n16)

1.7% (n70) 0.2% (n8)

Hate crime: disability By carer (not flagged as disability) Total for domestic, hate and NTE violence

1.7% (n72) 0.4% (n17) 0.1% (n6) 0.4% (n16) 47.6% (1,478)

Domestic abuse continues to be the largest category of violence, accounting for over 32% of assaults (including assaults by spouse/partner not flagged as domestic). The number of domestic assaults has reduced by 7% (n77)168, but not by quite as much as for other types of assault, so the proportion has been increasing slightly each year since 2011/12. Further analysis showed that:        

37% (n1,206) of assaults took place in a family setting (domestic abuse, plus family violence) 15.4% (n500) took place in the designated night time economy areas or at licenced premises 1.9% (n61) were hate crime (race / religion / homophobic / disability) 1.8% (n59) were by a neighbour 0.3% (n11) were by a carer 11% (n370) took place in a public place at night; 16% (n522) were by an acquaintance; Leaving 16% (n536) which were by a stranger, unknown or victims didn't want to give details.

Domestic abuse Tackling domestic abuse is a priority for the SPP because it is the most common driver for violent assaults (32%, n1,047). It causes immediate emotional and physical harm to the victim and wider consequences such as loss of opportunity, isolation from friends, poor physical and mental health. Domestic abuse may have a detrimental impact on employment,169 and is a commonly quoted reason

167

This is likely to be artificially low - when the data for last year was re-examined, the occurrence start time had not been provided so the data had been sorted by reported time meaning that some assaults which were reported the following morning wouldn't have been included in the NTE total. 168 Using number flagged as domestic plus those with spouse (not including family). 169 21% of women who reported domestic abuse in the self-completion module of the 2001 British Crime Survey took time off work because of the abuse and 2% lost their jobs (Walby & Allen, 2004).

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 for homelessness in women.170 Many children are exposed to domestic abuse and violence at home and are denied a safe and stable home environment. These children are more likely to become victims of abuse themselves and may experience personality or behavioural problems and are more likely to go on to offend. The single biggest predictor for children becoming either perpetrators or victims of domestic abuse as an adult is whether they grew up in a home with domestic violence.171 The impact of domestic abuse on very young children is often under estimated and the impact on school age children could affect their ability to achieve.172 Victims of domestic assaults were mostly female (79%, n783) which is roughly the proportion that we would expect to see based on previous years. Most were aged between 19 and 33 years of age. Where information about the offender was known, they were more likely to be male (84%, n279) and aged 2534 (35%, n115).173 618 domestic abuse cases were taken to the multi-agency risk assessment conference (MARAC)174, a 9% (n53) increase from 2012/13 and 32% (n149) increase since 2010/11. 34% (n213) of these cases were repeat cases and this level of on-going repeat victimisation has been consistent since 2011/12. It would be interesting if we could find out why repeat victimisation has remained so constant. ď&#x20AC;Ś Only 7% (n41) of the cases at MARAC involved a male victim, even though 21% of victims of domestic assaults were male. This supports evidence to suggest that the level of violence experienced by women is often greater than males both in severity and frequency.175 Further research and analysis is needed to establish if this is in fact the case or if other factors also contribute to this difference. ď&#x20AC;Ś In the last year 635 children lived in households where their parent(s) were involved in a MARAC case. Anecdotally, many cases at MARAC seem to feature alcohol / substance misuse at some level but this information is not formally collected.176

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29

170

Percentage of incidents recorded as crimes

Number of occurrences

Figure 12: Domestic incidents and crimes 2006/07 - 2013/14 Domestic incidents Domestic crimes % of incidents recorded as crimes Linear (% of incidents recorded as crimes)

40% of homeless women stated domestic violence was a contributor to their homelessness (Cramer & Carter, 2002). Unicef 2006 Behind Closed Doors: The impact of domestic violence on children. 172 Byrne & Taylor (2007) Children at risk from domestic violence and their educational attainment: Perspectives of education welfare officers, social workers and teachers. 173 Data provided by Hampshire Constabulary - Strategic data report from Business Objects. 174 MARAC data received from the Early Intervention Project team - the MARAC reviews medium and high risk cases. 175 Hester 2009'Who does what to whom?' 176 From the MARAC administrator. 171

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 There has been a very slight increase (1%, n39) in the number of domestic incidents reported to the police in 2013/14 (n4,250) compared with the previous year. A third of these (n1,411) were recorded as crimes. This percentage has been decreasing slightly overall since 2006/07, when 37% (n1,348) were recorded as crimes (See figure 12 above). Anecdotally, the police have confirmed that their response to domestic incidents and guidelines for recording domestic crimes and incidents have not changed over the last five years and that police practices do not account for the reduction in the amount of incidents recorded as crimes.177 It is possible that increased publicity by the SPP and police has raised awareness and encouraged the reporting of more low level incidents which could have contributed to this trend. Hampshire Constabulary178 conducted a dip sample of 120 domestic incidents to improve our understanding of the recording of domestic incidents and crimes.179 A domestic occurrence is either recorded as a crime or an incident (this may change from the initial call). The vast majority of incidents were classified as verbal disputes (84%, n101) but some included cases where: the incident was an alleged assault which was later found to be false or the allegations withdrawn (4%, n5), the public protection department was involved (4%, n5), civil disputes (2.5%, n3) or the person had left the address by the time the police arrived (2.5%, n3). When dealing with incidents, police officers complete a risk assessment form (AD232r) to allow incidents to be double checked or actions followed up. In addition to the risk assessment, other common outcomes for the incidents included:     

'No complaint' (24%, n29) - the matter was resolved / complaint withdrawn / people involved refused to co-operate with police etc. This does not mean a crime has not been committed, but cannot be recorded as a crime. Public Protection Department involvement (22.5%, n27) - where cases were graded 'high' or 'medium' the reported person leaving the address - either by their own volition or on request (22.5%, n27) advice was given (10%, n12) arrests (6%, n7) - four of these were arrests to prevent a further breach of the peace or a breach of a non-molestation order (neither were recorded as crimes but have the power of arrest), two were arrests for a suspected crime but the victim would not confirm that a crime had been committed (and so these could not be recorded as crimes) and the final arrest was for an assault on a 3rd party (not domestic).

Children were present at 35% (n43) of incidents in the dip sample (n120). When this is extrapolated from the dip sample to the total number of incidents, this means that approximately 1,500 children may have been present while police attended a domestic incident involving their family and most likely their parents. In 59.2% (n71) of incidents both the victim and offenders had been involved in previous incidents (either together or with other people). A further 2.4% (n3) of incidents involved either a repeat victim or repeat offender. Further work is recommended to explore how many repeat incidents/crimes have been experienced by these individuals and whether they were known to other services such as the Early Intervention Project (EIP), Aurora New Dawn (AND) and Up2U (A new perpetrator programme).  177

23/06/14 - Insp. Clare Taylor during meeting to discuss the domestic abuse dip sample. Hampshire Constabulary Portsmouth Domestic Abuse Review 2013 produced by J. Attwood, Feb 2014 179 Hampshire Constabulary, May 2014 02400 Policy - Responding to and investigating domestic abuse 178

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 The detection rate for domestic violence offences is 34% (1st April 2013 - 31st January 2014)180 which is a 3% increase from the previous police strategic period. In order to improve collection of evidence, police officers have been able to use body worn video technology and are working in partnership with Aurora New Dawn (AND), in addition to the existing services such as the Independent Domestic Violence Advocates (IDVA) service, to enhance victim engagement with the police and court process. Data from the Crown Prosecution Service showed that 870 domestic abuse cases181 were heard in Portsmouth's specialist domestic abuse court (SDAC) and two thirds (n576) resulted in a successful outcome. This was the same proportion as in 2012/13 and 2011/12. Most of the successful outcomes are as a result of guilty pleas (57%, n497 of all cases). It would be useful to do some further analysis by tracking cases to see whether those supported by AND at the incident resulted in an increased rate of convictions. Since the domestic abuse review in 2012/13, quarterly domestic abuse performance reports have been produced by the SPP research team.182 This report monitors key outcomes for improvement identified by the review. Data is gathered from a variety of different services which link together to address domestic abuse in the City. Key findings from the Q4 2013/14 report include: 

 

A huge increase (385%, n4,772) in people accessing the domestic abuse related pages on the SPP website between 1st January and 31st March 2014 in comparison with the same time period last year. This is likely to be as a result of the 'Is this Love?' campaign which began on 1 st January 2014 featuring posters, workshops in schools and colleges and radio coverage. There has been a 29% (n251) increase in referrals to the Early Intervention Project (EIP), approximately half of which came from the police but there was an increase in self-referrals and referrals from the voluntary sector. In almost 90% of cases, substance misuse workers did not complete the data field to indicate whether or not the client had experienced domestic abuse. Investigations are underway to see if this can be made a mandatory field. Domestic abuse is a factor for 20% (n167) families identified for the Positive Family Steps initiative. Where these families have been worked with, 84% (n32) had experienced a reduction in domestic abuse. Domestic abuse is a common factor in child protection plans (69%, n153) and child protection conferences (61%, n60 for Q4 2013/14).183 Investment in early intervention to prevent domestic abuse could produce a significant reduction in demand for these high cost services.

The domestic abuse review in 2012 identified a gap in delivery of domestic abuse perpetrator interventions, with only a few places available for probation clients. As a result a new service was commissioned aimed at anyone using domestically abusive behaviours in an intimate partner relationship and Up2U went live on 6th May 2014. Due to limited capacity the programme has not been widely publicised but there have been 13 enquiries so far, 77% (n10) from children's social care and seven individuals have been signed up. Five reported witnessing domestic abuse as children and three of these were subject to child protection plans for domestic abuse. Two disclosed alcohol misuse and two disclosed mental health issues.

180

Hampshire Constabulary Portsmouth District Strategic Summary 2014 92% (n800) were from Portsmouth residents and others were from the surrounding areas such as Havant and Fareham. 182 SPP Domestic Abuse: Measuring Success Q4 2013/14. 183 The figures for child protection conferences relate to families where as child protection plans relate to individual children. 181

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

Night time economy (NTE) and alcohol related violence For the last three years, approximately 22% of assaults have been flagged as being alcohol- related, while in approximately 10% of cases alcohol (or drugs) were not a factor. In almost 70% of cases, records indicated that it was 'not known' whether alcohol or drugs were a factor. Therefore we can assume that the actual level of alcohol-related assaults is likely to be substantially higher than 22%. The dip sample of domestic abuse incidents found that in 18.3% of cases, the people involved were intoxicated either by alcohol or drugs. The report also highlighted that this information was not recorded for over half of the incidents. This is an issue that Hampshire Constabulary is aware of and led the SPP to develop its own local measure to give a proxy for alcohol related violence (known as NTE violence) and which is provided by Hampshire Constabulary on a quarterly basis. It includes all violent offences occurring in the designated NTE roads or times (see Appendix C for NTE parameters): public order and harassment and threatening behaviour, assaults, possession of weapons, robbery and sexual offences. NTE violence has decreased by 18% (n166) since last year and almost 40% (n496) since 2007/8. The largest percentage reductions were seen in Portsmouth South (Palmerston Road, 26.1%, n36) and Gunwharf (21.2%, n29). This indicates that the increase seen last year for the newly pedestrianised Palmerston Road area was likely to have been a blip rather than a permanent change. Approximately 13% (n426) of assaults were linked to the NTE, which is a 28% (n167) reduction from the previous year. Assaults linked to licensed premised which were not in the designated NTE roads or times accounted for a further 2.3% (n74) bringing the total to 15.3% (n500).

Drug related violence Very little drug-related violence is reported to the police, 1.4% (n44) of assaults were flagged as drug related, and a further 1% (n32) of these were both drug and alcohol related. This is a similar proportion to previous years. The police strategic summary for 2014 noted that a number of violence incidents were linked to drugs including robberies, kidnapping aggravated burglaries and assaults but there is no accurate information currently to assist in identifying the specific number of these incidents. The majority of networks operating in the city appear to be based in London, dealers being sent to Portsmouth to operate from the addresses of local users who are usually paid in drugs or coerced to allow this.184 Approximately 16% of transient dealers are under 18yrs, and there has recently been an increase in the number of young transient dealers. In the first quarter of 2014/15, there were 30% more young people than in the whole of 2013/14 (however, the numbers are still relatively small, with less than 15 young transient dealers in the Q1 2014/15). This situation is being closely monitored by Hampshire Constabulary, Portsmouth Youth Offending Team and other forces because it has raised concern about young vulnerable people being exploited.

Hate crime Findings from the Community Safety Survey (2014) showed that Black and minority Ethnic (BME) respondents were more likely to report being concerned about and experiencing harassment & bullying than British white respondents. 184

This was also identified as an issue in Wickson (Oct 2013) Research review of complex cases of Anti-social Behaviour: Stage 2 Report.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

The majority of hate crime recorded by police was racially or religiously motivated (88%). In 2013/14, 190 crimes of this type were recorded which is a 10% (n20) fall from the previous year. However, the rate for racially or religiously aggravated crime was 0.91 per 1,000 population, the second highest compared with other similar areas (average 0.7).185 Most of these were violence offences: 58% (n120) were public order and 34% (n70) were violence with or without injury. All incidents reported to the police should also be reported to the Hate Crime Service (HCS), but residents also have the option of reporting incidents directly to this service. However, the HCS has seen an even larger drop (34%, n168) in the number of incidents reported to them since the previous year. In previous years, the co-ordination of hate crime referrals was undertaken by a single point of contact within the police, whose job role included producing a fortnightly report of all recorded hate crime, meaning any 'missing' referrals or re-categorised incidents could be easily identified and a referral made. Due to resourcing issues this has not always been possible in 2013/14 and as such referrals may either have been missed, or delays in referrals being received may have meant that offering support would not be appropriate.186 This may, at least in part, explain the larger drop in incidents reported to the HCS compared to the police recorded incidents in 2013/14. There were 320 incidents reported to the HCS in 2013/14, most of which included a verbal abuse element (76%, n243), or intimidation and threats (33%, n105). This is a similar pattern to 2012/13 and 2011/12, however, racial graffiti has replaced physical abuse as the third most common element (27%, n87). A dip sample of 50 hate crime cases found that a third of police referrals were recorded as antisocial behaviour incidents (12 were categorised as ASB - personal).187 As for previous years, the victim's home was the most common place for the racial abuse to occur (35%, n113), followed by in the street / parks (22%, n70) and public places (14%, 44). The ratio of males to females hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t changed in the last three years, with approximately a third female and two-thirds male. This year, victim ethnicity details were not received from the police in 80% (n242) of cases because of a lack of resources in the team providing the service. However, the ethnicity information from the police is based on visual appearance using the IC1-6 system and is very broad. In particular IC1 refers to White Northern European and IC2 is Southern European, which does not allow for incidents to be separated into British White and other European (for example Eastern European). This is an area that the HCS has been trying to address for many years, but because it is a nationwide police reporting system, it has not been possible to change this to make the categories more meaningful. Only 0.14% (n24) homophobic crimes and 0.02% (n5) disability hate crimes were recorded by the police, which is consistent with the small numbers recorded in previous years. There was a small reduction in homophobic crimes reported to the HCS (15%, n7) and an increase in disability hate crime (27%, n6) but numbers are still small. These crimes are likely to be considerably under-reported. The Speak Out 3 survey (2010) found that 71% (n37) of respondents who had experienced a homophobic incident had not reported it to the police. Common reasons for not reporting were: being afraid of future repercussions, thinking the police couldn't do anything and being unsure whether the incident 185

Headline figures are from iQuanta, further analysis uses data from Hampshire Constabulary Strategic Data download. Email from Sharon Furtardo, 05/09/2014 187 st st Wickson (2013) A summary analysis of cases referred to the Hate Crime Unit 1 April - 31 Oct 2013) 186

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 was a crime. There also seemed to be some acceptance of the incidents with comments like 'you get used to it' and 'I figure they are ignorant people entitled to their opinion.'

Sexual offences There were 282 sexual offences recorded by police in 2013/14188 which is 25% (n56) higher than 2012/13. This has been driven by an increase in 'other' sexual offences189 which have doubled (n42 in 2012/13 to n84 in 2013/14). This gives a rate of 0.4 per 1,000 population, which is the same as the average for similar areas but Portsmouth ranks 6th out of eight, as one of the areas had a much higher rate which inflated the average. Nationally sexual offences reported to the police increased by 20%.190 In the context of generally falling crime, such increases in such a serious type of offence is a cause for concern. It has been suggested that the media coverage around Operation Yewtree could have encouraged an increase in the reporting of historical cases as people feel more confident that they will get justice despite the passing of time. However, 29% (n81) cases occurred in the past and have been reported during 2013/14 (from 1965 to March 2013) compared with 27% (n62) the year before. This means historical cases account for approximately a third of the increase. However, Operation Yewtree is thought to have had a wider effect and generally increased the willingness of victims to report current crimes.191 Hampshire Police and the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner are currently evaluating and mapping services for rape and serious sexual assaults with the aim of improving delivery of services to vulnerable victims. ď&#x20AC;Ś The victims were largely female (87%, n243) with a peak age of 14 and 15 years, but young women aged between 12 and 20 experienced a generally higher level of sexual offences than other ages. The peak age for serious sexual offences (including rape) was slightly higher at 20 years (peak range 19-21). Despite the offender being known to the victim at least 55% of the time (partner/family or acquaintance) and being reported as a stranger or not seen in only 25% of cases, offender details were only recorded for 19% (n46) cases. Where details were recorded the offender was always male and there was no peak age - with a fairly even distribution from 15-69 years. This is likely to be due to a low detection rate (12.8%,192 suspect details are not included in this analysis) for this type of crime. It would be interesting to explore this further with particular regards to suspect details and establishing whether the main causes are lack of evidence or poor engagement of the victims. ď&#x20AC;Ś

Youth-related violence Youth-related violence (where either the victim or offender is 10 to 17 years old) accounted for 12.6% (n408) of assaults, which is a 19% (n93) reduction from last year. This group of assaults has been considered separately and by each driver, rather than as a driver itself as per previous strategic assessments. Nationally there was a 7% fall in the number of violent offences reported to the CSEW by young people aged 10 to 15 years, mostly driven by a reduction in the number of assaults classed as wounding by the survey (so a category within violence with injury).

188

Headline figures are from iQuanta, further analysis uses data from Hampshire Constabulary Strategic Data download. Serious sexual offences are mainly rape, other sexual offences covers the remainder (largely indecent assault and indecency other). 190 ONS 2014 Crime Survey for England and Wales, Yr. End March 2014 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_371127.pdf 191 ONS 2014 Crime Survey for England and Wales, Yr. End March 2014 192 st st Hampshire Constabulary, 1 April 2013 - 31 January 2014, Portsmouth Strategic Summary 189

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 In 16% (n57) of cases, both the victim and offender were aged 10 to 17 years, and in 12% (n43) of cases the offender was an adult. In 72% (n253) the offender details were not recorded. When the offender was an adult they were female in 56% (n24) of cases and known to the young person in 74% (n32) of cases - mostly acquaintances (42%, n18). The most common driver for youth-related violence was family violence (18%, n75). In over three quarters of assaults the victim was a young person (77%, n58), in 16% (n12) cases, the victim was the adult and in 7% (n5) both the victim and offender were young people. Alcohol was a known factor in 5% (n22) cases.

8. Serious acquisitive crime193 All acquisitive crime (both serious and other) accounts for 38.5% (n6,517) of overall recorded crime in Portsmouth. This represents an increase on last year but is still on the downward trend which began in 2007/08. Serious acquisitive crime has also continued to reduce and is now 51.2% (n1,912) lower than in 2007/08 and 5.8% (n112) lower than last year; leaving the volume of offences for 2013/14 at 1,819.194 The rate of serious acquisitive crime dropped from 9.41 per 1,000 in 2012/13 to 8.79 in 2013/14. This is below the average for similar areas195 (12.5 per 1,000), where we rank 2nd lowest out of eight areas. The reduction in serious acquisitive crime is smaller than that which is seen for overall crime this year (8.2%), however, the proportion of crime that it accounts for is similar to last year (10.7% and 10.5% respectively). This downward trend masks a significant increase in theft of a motor vehicle and business robbery. When looking at the component crimes that make up serious acquisitive crime (theft from a motor vehicle, theft of a motor vehicle, domestic burglary, personal robbery and business robbery), the rates in Portsmouth are lower than the MSG average apart from 'robbery business' where the Portsmouth rate is equal to the MSG average (0.07 per 1,000 population). Locally, business robbery has seen the largest percentage increase (250%) of all acquisitive crimes in the last year. However, this refers to only 10 offences and follows a significant reduction in the previous year (77.8%, n14). Theft of a motor vehicle is the only other serious acquisitive crime to have seen an increase in the last year; specifically a 55% (n113) increase from 2012/13, to a total of 317 offences in 2013/14. However, theft of a motor vehicle has still reduced by 59% (n416) when compared to the baseline in 2007/08. Further research is needed to understand what is driving these increases, although anecdotal evidence196 has suggested it may be at least partially due moped thefts by young males. ď&#x20AC;Ś

193

Serious Acquisitive Crime includes domestic burglary; theft from and of a motor vehicle; robbery (personal and business). Figures taken from iQuanta (Home Office statistics website). 195 SPP most similar areas / most similar group (MSG) are: Southampton, Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove, Bristol, Sheffield, Southend-onSea and Plymouth. 196 Hampshire Constabulary Research Team 194

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Figure 13: Serious acquisitive crime trends in Portsmouth, 2007/08 to 2013/14 2,000

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*Component crimes are plotted against the left hand vertical axis whilst overall crime figures are plotted against the right hand vertical axis.

The results of the Community Safety Survey 2014, showed that burglary is the crime that respondents worry about the most in Portsmouth (40%, n334), followed by being mugged / robbed (17%, n147). These findings are similar to the findings in previous years. However, people's worry about these crimes far exceeded the likelihood that they would experience them, more so than for other crimes. 2% (n17) of survey respondents reported having been the victim of a burglary in the previous 12 months and 1% (n8) reported having been mugged / robbed.197 Domestic burglary accounted for 37.2% (n677) of police recorded serious acquisitive crime in 2013/14 and 4% of all police recorded crime. This is an 11% (n84) decrease on the figure for 2012/13 and is similar to the percentage decrease found nationally by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) 2013/14 (12%)198. Evidence from the police suggests that electrical items199 and jewellery have been the main target for offenders. It is suggested that such items can be easily sold and with the introduction of cash for gold websites, offenders can post stolen items, therefore possessing the property for a limited time.200 Personal robbery accounted for 6% of police recorded serious acquisitive crime in Portsmouth and 0.6% of all police recorded crime. This represents a 13% (n17) decrease on the figure for 2012/13, which is comparable to the decrease in police recorded robberies nationally (11%) but in contrast to the CSEW

197

SPP S.Graves & N.Sandford-Smith, Community Safety Survey 2014: Headline Results Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014, published 17 July 2014 - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_371127.pdf 199 Information from Paul Moorman, Hampshire Constabulary suggests that what is stolen usually corresponds to the legal market for desirable electrical goods, e.g. games consoles, televisions, laptops and mobile devices. 200 st st Hampshire Constabulary, Research & Analysis Eastern Area, Portsmouth Strategic Summary, 1 April 2013 - 31 January 2014 198

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 estimate that robbery and theft from the person were not significantly different from the previous year. This could suggest that the reduction is linked to changes in police recording of robbery.

Other acquisitive crime Non-domestic burglary has risen 19% from last year, an increase of 136 offences, to 857 offences. However, this is following a 19% reduction between 2011/12 and 2012/13. Overall, non-domestic burglary has reduced by 21% (n222) since the baseline in 2007/08 and 4% (n37) since 2011/12. Locally, police recorded theft offences reduced by 3% in 2013/14, when compared to the previous year. This is in keeping with police recorded thefts nationally, which also decreased by 3%, continuing the year on year decrease seen since 2002/03. However, police recorded reductions were not as great as those recorded by the CSEW 2013/14, which found that theft offences decreased by 10% nationally in the last year.201 This could be the result of improved recording practices bringing the figure for 2013/14 closer to the actual number of thefts experienced. The exception to this reduction in theft offences was shoplifting, which increased nationally by 7% compared with the previous year (from 300,623 offences to 321,008). This is in stark contrast to shoplifting in Portsmouth, which saw a 14% reduction (n370) in 2013/14. Anecdotal evidence from police forces suggests that the national rise is likely to be a result of a genuine increase in crime rather than any change in recording practice.202 Similarly, for the period 2012/13, respondents to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Crime Survey 2013203 reported the highest rate of customer theft for nine years, which supports this theory. The annual number of thefts per 100 stores increased to 4,725; an increase of 5% (n225 approximately204) compared to the previous year. Further, respondents estimated that just over a quarter of thefts went undetected; suggesting the actual number is much higher. However, only 9% of detected customer thefts were reported to the police; which a third of survey respondents attributed to a lack of confidence in the police response. This could go some way to explaining the difference between national and local figures. According to police recorded crime, cycle theft in Portsmouth increased by 15% (n149) in 2013/14, when compared to the previous year. In contrast, the latest CSEW shows a 17% falls in the level of bicycle thefts in the year ending March 2014, when compared with 2012/13205. Further, the number of bicycle theft offences recorded by the police nationally was similar to the previous year. Over the longterm, incidents of bicycle theft are now 27% lower nationally than in the 2008/09 CSEW. Cycle theft is one acquisitive offence where figures have fluctuated locally since the baseline in 2007/08. However, overall cycle theft has still reduced by 8% (n105) since 2007/08.

201

Theft offences include: Burglary, vehicle offences, theft from the person, and all other theft offences. Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014, published 17 July 2014 cites the following article http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/23/rise-female-shoplifters-benefit-cuts-police which suggests that there are an increasing number of female first-time shoplifters and those shoplifters are increasingly stealing basic items such as food. It has been suggested that this increase is linked to the austerity measures and benefit cuts; with people turning to shoplifting in order to put food on the table and provide for their family. 203 British Retail Consortium, 'Retail Crime Survey 2013' 204 Exact figures are not provided in the report and as such this figure has been calculated using the overall figure and the percentage which is likely to have been rounded to the nearest whole number. 205 This figure must be treated with caution as short term trends in offences with small number of victims interviewed in any one year are prone to fluctuation. 202

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Previous drug users' surveys in Portsmouth have pointed to the popularity of acquisitive crime as a means to funding drug habits.206 The National Treatment Agency estimate that heroin, cocaine or crack users commit up to half of all acquisitive crimes nationally. Further, a recent paper by the Home Office207 indicated that, as levels of opiate use have fluctuated in the last forty years, there has been a corresponding fluctuation in recorded crime levels, with the peak of the 'heroin epidemic' in the mid1990s correlating with the peak levels of acquisitive crime. Moreover, that the reducing level of opiate use since then can, in part, be attributed to the reduction in acquisitive crime over the last decade. It is not possible to replicate this research locally due to data limitations over such an extensive period.208 However, it is likely that any fall in the number of drug users in Portsmouth, specifically those who fund their drug use through acquisitive crime, would contribute to an overall decrease in recorded crime. As such, the impact of successful and continued treatment of drug users should not be overlooked when examining factors that have helped reduce acquisitive crime locally. Indeed, it is estimated that drug treatment prevented 4.9m offences nationally in 2010-11, the majority of which were acquisitive crimes.209 Using this explanation, the recent increase in cycle theft could possibly be linked to: a change in offending behaviour amongst the drug using population (for example, from shoplifting to cycle theft), the estimated 25% increase in opiate and crack cocaine users in Portsmouth or the poor rate of planned exits from treatment services. Acquisitive crime is a type of offence which is generally opportunistic in nature and the increasing use of improved security measures (such as passwords) has had a big impact in reducing these types of offences in recent years. Even though there are more highly desirable mobile goods around (e.g. tablets, smart phones, etc.) they are increasingly more affordable and their value decreases rapidly on the second hand market.210 However, anecdotal evidence from the respondents to the Retail Crime Survey 2013 suggests that organised crime gangs are now prepared to travel further to commit offences and are more willing to obtain a wide range of high value goods.

9. Anti-social behaviour Anti-social behaviour covers a range of behaviours, from environmental issues like littering, fly tipping and dog mess through to personal nuisance such as neighbour disputes and noise nuisance. On occasion, it includes criminal offences such as harassment and criminal damage. Analysis of peoples experience or perception of anti-social behaviour can therefore cover a wide range of incidents. For this and other reasons it is a difficult topic to research. In summary:  There is a lack of consistency in definitions and categories making it difficult to measure changes over time or compare across or within areas.  Even with Home Office categories, some records relate to a specific behaviour (noise, street drinking) whilst others cover a range of behaviours (rowdy or inconsiderate behaviour; miscellaneous). Inevitably the ‘catch all’ categories are the largest numerically.

206

S. Graves, 2010 drug market questionnaire and D. Slade 2012 drug market questionnaire. N. Morgan (2014) The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990 and its effect on crime trends then and now: Technical Report 208 It would not be possible to accurately attribute levels of recorded crime locally to a small and potentially unknown population of opiate users using the available data. There are similar limitations with the data used in the Home Office paper. 209 National Treatment Agency (2012) Estimating the crime reduction benefits of drug treatment and recovery 210 Update to the Strategic Assessment 2013 207

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Similarly, some categories such as 'youth nuisance' or ‘rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour’ are open to a degree of interpretation. This means organisations, individuals or areas may record differently. There are numerous data sets that can provide analysts with some information but no single database provides the whole picture. Some are restricted to specific population groups, such as local authority housing tenants, and if not carefully presented these can distort an overview of the problem. Data on anti-social behaviour is not always collected or is poorly recorded and it is not subject to the same quality checks, definitions and codes that govern crime records.

For the above reasons, the most reliable data about people’s experience and views of ASB and the most comparable over time, come from resident surveys. However, the largest and most comprehensive data set is police recorded anti-social behaviour.

Police recorded anti-social behaviour The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that police forces across England and Wales recorded a rate of 38 incidents of anti-social behaviour per 1,000 population.211 Data for 2011/12 onwards is not directly comparable to previous years because of changes in anti-social behaviour classifications, however, previous records show a steady decrease between 2007/8 and 2010/11, which is consistent with recent trends in police recorded crime. In other words, across England and Wales anti-social behaviour appears to be reducing. In Portsmouth, Hampshire Constabulary212 recorded 9,159 anti-social behavior incidents during 2013/14, which is an 11% (n1,154) reduction from the previous year. This equates to approximately 45 incidents per 1,000 population and is therefore significantly higher than the national average. Some caution is needed as this may partly reflect more conscientious recording of incidents (given that some forces were not able to submit complete data sets to the ONS). However, it is significantly greater and this raises some concerns. Furthermore, data from three alternative sources have shown a conflicting trend: the Anti-social behaviour Unit, Wardens and Noise Pollution team have shown an increase of between 10 and 16% since last year. This is likely to be due to 2012 being artificially low, as it was the second wettest year on record213 and anecdotal evidence suggests that wet weather has a direct impact on anti-social behaviour.214 However, the difference between the trends shown by the police data in comparison with other sources requires further examination. Charles Dickens ward had a much higher rate of anti-social behaviour than the other wards (124.1 per 1,000) followed by St Thomas (73.2), Nelson (59.1) and St Jude (58.2).

211

The ONS does caution that anti-social behaviour statistics are not accredited national statistics and therefore not subject to the same quality controls as crime statistics. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-march-2012/stb-crime-statsend-m 212 From their Record Management System. This is the data set submitted to the Home Office, included in ONS statistics and comparable to the national data set. 213 Met Office: 2012 was UK's second wettest year on record: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20898729 214 Email titled: Trends in ASB from Warren Amor, Community Warden 05/0

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The types of incident can be broken down in more detail based on the new national recording categories (see figure 14 above). ‘Nuisance’ captures incidents where something causes trouble, offence or suffering to the local community in general, rather than to individual victims. ‘Personal’ are those incidents that are perceived as either deliberately targeted at, or having an impact on, an individual or group and ‘Environmental’ captures incidents where individuals and groups have an impact on their surroundings, including natural, built and social environments. Additionally, each of the above categories can be broken down into a further nine sub-categories and grouped in a different way, giving a better indication of what the incidents involved (see figure 15 below). Of the nine sub-categories, the majority saw reductions between 2012/13 and 2013/14, although 'neighbours' saw an increase of 2% (n53). 'Rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour' and 'neighbours' have been the most commonly reported categories of anti-social behaviour for the last two years. Figure 15: Police Recorded Anti-social Behaviour 4844

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National and local perceptions and experience of anti-social behaviour The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW, formerly the British Crime Survey) measures national experience of crime and anti-social behaviour. This includes some longstanding questions on anti-social behaviour that are used to provide an overall index of perception and experience. In Portsmouth, the SPP conducts its own community safety survey (CSS) because the results from the CSEW can only be broken down to a Hampshire-wide level and findings are not available specifically for Portsmouth. Whilst the surveys are not exactly the same or run to the same methodology, they do show some comparable information.215 In the year ending 31st March 2014, 12% of adults in England and Wales perceived a high level of antisocial behavior in their local area, down one percentage point from the previous year:  29% perceived there to be a problem with rubbish or litter lying around (no change from 2012/13 and fairly stable since 2003/04)  20% perceived there to be a problem with teenagers hanging around on the streets, a slight reduction from 22% in 2012/13 and a larger fall from the peak of 30% in 2008/09.  19% perceived problems with people being drunk or rowdy in public places, down from 26% in 2008/09.  17% of people perceived problems with vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property (down from 19% in 2012/13).  11% of people perceived problems with noisy neighbours or loud parties (no change). In Portsmouth, the CSS 2014 asks a slightly different question to capture perceptions; whether residents strongly agree that anti-social behaviour is a problem in their local area. 11% of residents strongly agreed, which is a reduction from 20% in the CSS 2012.216 Results also show that when residents strongly agreed that it was a problem, they were most likely to live in Charles Dickens ward, followed by Southsea, Paulsgrove and Fratton. In Portsmouth’s survey:217  19% perceived problems with general noise (in the street)  18% of respondents perceived there to be a problem with rubbish or litter  18% were concerned about people hanging around  16% felt there was a problem with street drinking  15% perceived problems with dog mess  14% thought noisy neighbours were a problem The CSEW found that 29% of respondents said they had personally witnessed or experienced anti-social behaviour in their local area in the last year, which is a slight reduction from 2012/13 (30%):  10% had personally witnessed or experienced drink related ASB (no change)  9% had personally witnessed or experienced groups hanging around on the streets (down from 10%)  5% had personally experienced inconsiderate behaviour (down from 6%). 215

Please see Appendix E for more details about the methodology for the Portsmouth CSS. Caution should be attached to this finding, because in the 2012 survey a 4 point scale was used, forcing respondents to choose to: strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree. In 2014, a 5 point scale was used so the '3' indicated that the respondent did not feel one way or the other. 216

217

We have improved the methodology of the survey this year so it’s not possible to compare with the 2012 survey although comparisons will be possible in future years. This was to make the findings more useful to service providers.

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5% had personally experienced loud music or other noise (no change) 4% had personally witnessed litter, rubbish or dog fouling (no change)

The Portsmouth CSS 2014 also asked about anti-social behavior which had been witnessed or personally experienced in the last year, and found that:  14% had witnessed or experienced noisy neighbours  14% had witnessed or experienced litter  13% had witnessed or experienced general noise  12% had witnessed or experienced dog fouling  12% had witnessed or experienced street drinking Comparison of the two surveys shows that perception of anti-social behaviour in Portsmouth is more closely aligned with experience than nationally. While it would appear that rubbish is a bigger problem nationally, respondents to the national survey would have been asked directly about rubbish, whereas the Portsmouth respondents were not prompted. However, there is a higher perception and experience of noise related anti-social behaviour in Portsmouth than nationally.

'Noise' Noise nuisance is a very specific and measurable form of ASB, but the sorts of incidents reported to agencies like the police and the council’s Noise Pollution Control Team are those that are sustained and at a level and time that causes on-going nuisance or distress to city residents. It is likely therefore that there are many incidents of general noise or street noise that are neither reported nor recorded. The Noise Pollution team provides the most comprehensive single data set on noise nuisance. They received 2,418 related noise complaints in 2013/14. This is a 13% increase on the previous year (n272) and is part of an increasing trend year on year since 2009/10. Noise is recorded by 19 separate categories but the majority of incidents fall into the following four: music (43%), people (24%), barking dog (9%) and parties (9%, see figure 16 below). Figure 16: Noise complaints 2009/10 - 2013/14 1200

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Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 Categories that saw the largest increases over the 5 year period from 2009/10 to 2013/14 are 'Noise Party' with an increase of 153% (n132), followed by 'Noise - People' which increased by 54% (n206)218. Charles Dickens and St Thomas wards have consistently ranked 1st and 2nd as areas experiencing the most noise nuisance complaints. These are both areas in the city which historically have had the most anti-social behaviour incidents and may be as a result of being close to retail premises and night time economy areas. Anecdotal evidence from the community wardens would suggest that these are also areas with many buy-to-let properties populated with students. Central Southsea moved from 6 th in 2009/10 to ranking 3rd for the last year - more research could be done here to find out reasons for this ď&#x20AC;Ś. Looking at the CSS, 'Noisy neighbours' was the top type of anti-social behaviour that residents experienced, with the number of people concerned about this issue matching the number of people experiencing it (14%). Noise incidents were the most common complaint recorded on the Housing and Anti-social behaviour database (Caseworks) and accounted for 32% (n987) of the total. 47% (n50) of referrals to Portsmouth Assessment Service by the housing service were due to noise. It was also the 4th most common type of case logged on the Community Warden database (3.5%, n105). 'Noise' accounted for just under 5% (n408) of police recorded anti-social behaviour in 2013/14, and reduced by 25% (n138) from 2012/13. However, around 20% of 'rowdy and inconsiderate' could have been recorded as noise instead (see 'Understanding Rowdy Behaviour' paragraph).219 The University of Portsmouth Housing Service also received 347 complaints220 in 13/14; 54% (n186) of which were logged as 'noise', with a further 20% (n68) logged as 'Noise & Rubbish.' Further categories of complaint included 'Party' (12%, n41), 'Music' (5& n18) and 'Shouting' (3% n9) which are also noise related categories.

Rubbish and litter lying around Rubbish and litter lying around was the second highest concern of Portsmouth residents. 221 This is consistent with previous surveys, where it has either been top or high ranking. Dog fouling was also high on the list of concerns, ranking 4th. This is the first time dog fouling has ranked so highly, but this is the first questionnaire where recording this has been an option since 2006. There were 144 reports of litter logged by the Environmental Enforcement team in 2013/14, which is a 13% (n23) reduction from the previous year. There were 353 reports of dog mess in 2013/14 which was an 8% (n31) reduction on 2012/13. The volume of reported litter and dog fouling incidents does not reflect the growth in concern by city residents. It is possible that this under-reporting is due to these issues appearing too trivial to report, or residents feeling that there was nothing the authorities could do.222 218

Categories are logged by what the complainant thinks a category is, for example, whether to record as 'music' or 'party' is completely dependent upon them and their impression of the problem - therefore some caution may need to be given to exact categories as there can be overlap. 219 This is a judgement call for the officers / police staff recording the incident and doesn't mean that the incidents have been incorrectly recorded. 220 Not all complaints are substantiated. Many are low level complaints that are resolved through initial contact from the university to the student. Rachel Geary - Head of Student Housing 01/08/2014 221 2014 Community Safety Survey 222 Community Safety Survey 2014.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

Fly tipping tends to occur in locations where there is wasteland or open space. Early indications from the provisional DEFRA Statistics on the number of fly tipping incidents (minor 223 and major224) in England reported by local councils show 1,029 incidents225 in Portsmouth for 2013/14, which would be an increase of 59% (n383) on the previous year.226 If this increase is still the case when official figures are published in the autumn then it would be worthwhile investigating the reasons behind this as this may be signaling an increasing trend. .

Understanding ‘Rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour' The top concern for Portsmouth residents in the CSS 2014 was 'general noise' (in the street), and third ranking was 'people hanging around.' Both of these categories are included in the police category of 'rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour', which captures a wide range of anti-social behaviour without making the actual behaviour of concern explicit. It is open to a degree of interpretation by the person recording and can be used as a ‘catch all’ category. ‘Rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour' was the largest police recorded category of ASB in 2013/14, accounting for 44.6% (n4093) of all recorded incidents. There has been a 15.5% (n751) reduction since 2012/13. A dip sample of 100 rowdy and inconsiderate incidents from 2013/14 confirmed that this category was used for many different types of anti-social behaviour, which by its' nature is usually inconsiderate. The overwhelming finding from this dip sample is that 48% of the cases were perpetrated by young people. In addition:  27% incidents involved someone being abusive  23% involved alcohol or occurred in the night time economy and 4% involved drugs  20% incidents had an element of noise nuisance  14% of incidents involved damage or risk of damage  10% of incidents involved rocks or stones being thrown at houses / cars or port-a-cabins. As the dip sample above shows, the use of 'rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour' as a catch all category does not assist in identifying the true nature of an incident in a particular locality without further examination.

Arson and criminal damage Figures for arson and criminal damage have been used by the SPP as an indicator of anti-social behaviour levels across the city. Since 2008/9, these combined figures have been on an overall downward trend. Criminal damage stood at 2,310 in 2013/14, an 11% (n279) decrease on the previous year and a 52% (n2,532) decrease on the 2007/8 baseline figure.227 The arson data is made up of the number of deliberate primary and secondary fires 228 recorded by Hampshire Fire and Rescue Service (HFRS). Although the trend for arson had been going down in recent 223

Minor will generally be no more than a domestic car boot load, and more likely one item that could be carried to the location e.g. a fridge, a few black sacks, small amount of rubble. 224 Major fly tips involve use of a commercial type vehicle has occurred and can be rubble, car tyres, sheets or roofing asbestos etc 225 From data taken from the PCC Transport & Environment data reported monthly to DEFRA (see emails from Lynne Lennard 08/07/14) 226 Official 13/14 figures had not yet been published by DEFRA at the time of writing and should be available in September or October 2014 227 iQuanta figures 228 Primary fires include all fires in buildings, vehicles and outdoor structures or any fire involving casualties, rescues, or fires attended by five or more appliances. Secondary fires are the majority of outdoor fires including grassland and refuse fires unless they involve casualties

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 years, over the last year we have begun to see increases in deliberate fires 229. In 2013/14 there were total of 214 deliberate fires, which is a 16% (n29) rise on the previous year 230 and increases can be seen in the number of deliberate fires to derelict vehicles, grass, non-residential, other outdoors and refuse. Some of this increase can be accounted for by an unknown individual setting fire to outhouses/garages/refuse in the Drayton area.231 However, this increase needs monitoring as the number of deliberate primary fires nationally had been on a steady decline since the peak in 2001/02. 232 ď&#x20AC;Ś

Complex cases In 2013 research was carried out as part of the anti-social behaviour review which looked at complex cases being dealt with by the Antis-Social Behaviour Unit (ASBU).233 Complex cases involve multifaceted problems and / or where other agencies or services have been unable to resolve the issues. They include individuals and families with a lengthy history of anti-social behaviour, cases that have escalated in severity or frequency or locations that are problematic. From a dip sample of these cases we know that the average time an individual has been known for causing ASB is 33 months (2.5 years). The majority of cases were logged for under 12 months but there were a substantial number of complex cases where the accused has been known to services for causing ASB for between 3 and 8 years (49%). Given the severity of some of the incidents the impact of these cases should not be under estimated both in terms of impact on neighbours and the local community and the cost to services over this time. The research, which has so far looked at a dip sample of 90 cases, identified that in the majority of cases a variety of factors contributed to the anti-social behaviour, such as drug or alcohol misuse, offending history, child protection, domestic abuse and mental health issues. Of the 90 cases, 86% (n77) had at least one of these contributory factors. Of the cases that had a named perpetrator, 40% (n14) had been known to services and had been causing anti-social behaviour for between 3 and 8 years.234

Other anti-social behaviour This report has focused on the anti-social behaviours which make up the highest volume of incidents or are the biggest concerns for the public. It is worth a mention that most data sets have many categories, the largest being the data from the Wardens which has 99 separate categories. Other points of note include: ď&#x201A;ˇ 'Harassment / Bullying / Intimidation' has consistently been the third largest category recorded by Housing and the Anti-social behaviour Unit accounting for 14% (n558) of incidents in 2013/14. Although harassment did not come out as a top concern for residents generally, when BME residents' responses were examined separately, 10.1% were concerned about it and 14.8% had experienced it.235 ď&#x201A;ˇ Youth nuisance was the largest category of incidents reported to the Wardens (16%, n485) which is consistent with almost half of 'rowdy and inconsiderate behaviour' incidents reported to the or rescues, property loss or five or more appliances at-tend. They include fires in single derelict buildings. 229 Both primary and secondary 230 Taken from updated figures from HFRS - Justine Gray (26/06/14) 231 We are checking the exact figures with Hampshire Fire and Rescue 232 Fire & Rescue Statistical Release: Fire Statistics: Great Britain - April 2012 to March 2013, p11. 233 Review of complex cases of Anti-social Behaviour: Stage 1 Report, Wickson (May 2013) 234 Research review of complex cases of Anti-social Behaviour: Stage 2 Report, Wickson (October 2013) 235 S.Graves & N. Sandford-Smith Community Safety Survey 2014

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13

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police being perpetrated by young people. This indicates that young people may be responsible for a disproportionately large amount of certain types of anti-social behaviour. Further research is recommended to give us a better picture of the types of anti-social behaviour most likely to be committed by young people and the locations where it is most likely to occur. There were 112 incidents relating to rough sleepers (logged by the Wardens) in 2013/14, which is a 75% (n48) increase since 2011/12. This situation requires monitoring to see whether this is a permanent increase or temporary blip and what may be causing it.

As a result of the Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014, changes in anti-social behaviour legislation will come into effect in autumn 2014 with the aim of introducing simpler, more effective powers to tackle anti-social behaviour for victims and communities.236 The 19 existing tools will be cut down to 6 new tools237 that are said to allow professionals to stop anti-social behaviour and seek to change behaviour; one of the perceived failings of the ASBO.238

10. Conclusion The priorities for the Safer Portsmouth Partnership are tackling re-offending, young people at risk, alcohol and substance misuse and violence and domestic abuse. These have not changed significantly since the first strategic assessment in 2007/08, but the focus within these priorities has shifted to take into account the current situation. The conclusions and information within this document will be used to inform and influence the Safer Portsmouth Partnership delivery plans. The levels of recorded crime and anti-social behaviour fell in Portsmouth during 2013/14 (8% and 11% respectively). There were some exceptions to this trend, with increases in most serious violence, sexual offences, non-domestic burglary, theft of a motor vehicle, cycle theft and business robbery.239 SPP use a detailed scoring matrix240 to demonstrate transparency in identifying partnership priorities. Using this matrix (appendix D) violence with injury, in particular domestic abuse, remains a priority for the partnership and is linked to alcohol misuse and young people at risk. Cycle theft and noise nuisance have also emerged as a priorities. In 2013/14 the number of offenders (both adult and young) considered to be the 'most prolific' has remained stable whilst the number of offences they were responsible for has increased slightly. This could suggest that we are not dealing effectively with the most prolific offenders so it may be helpful to review the IOM/PPO to check. Acquisitive crimes were the most common offence type amongst the most prolific offenders; again this was true for both young people and adults. Acquisitive offending is

236 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/anti-social-behaviour-crime-and-police-bill 237 Civil injunction, Criminal Behaviour Order, Community Protection Notice, Public Spaces Protection Order, New Closure Power and Dispersal Powers. 238 Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Bill: Fact sheet: Overview of anti-social behaviour reforms (Parts 1-6) https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/251315/01_Factsheet_ASB_Overview__updated_for_Lords.pdf (accessed July 2014) 239 Crime figures were taken from iQuanta. 240 The matrix takes account of volume, trends, bench-marking, public concern, personal harm and whether they were likely to have disproportionate impacts against sections of the community or were linked to drug and alcohol misuse.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 also linked to substance misuse. However, acquisitive crime overall has seen a reduction in Portsmouth in 2013/14 (with the exception of cycle theft), whilst the most recent estimates suggest that the number of opiate users in the city may have increased by 25%.241 The estimated increase in opiate users is a potential area for concern, particularly as it compares to a reduction nationally, so we should focus some attention on understanding whether a rise in opiate users could be driving increases in cycle theft. Another area for concern is the emergence of Novel Psychoactive Substances (NPS). The Crime Survey for England and Wales suggested that the use of NPS increased between 2012/13 and 2013/14 amongst both young people and adults. Nationally the number of post mortem toxicology reports where NPS were found has increased by over 700% between 2009 and 2012.242 The full extent and impact of use in Portsmouth is currently unknown, but 12 individuals in treatment cited an NPS as a problem drug in 2013, whereas none had NPS as a recorded problem drug in 2012. Substance misuse amongst young people and within families is considered to be one of the risk factors that increase the likelihood of young people becoming involved in anti-social behaviour and/or crime. Other risk factors include: early contact with the police, contact with social services, poor attendance at school/exclusion, individuals not in education, employment or training (NEET), family involvement in criminal behaviour, mental health issues and experiencing or witnessing domestic abuse. As such, early intervention work with young people is required to prevent them from becoming caught up in the cycle of inter-generational substance misuse and offending. Ofsted have also identified the need to improve our 'early help' offer in relation to looked after children. Domestic abuse is a common factor in child protection plans (69%, n153) and child protection conferences (61%, n60 for Q4 2013/14). Investment in early intervention to prevent domestic abuse could produce a significant reduction in demand for these high cost services. Violent crime reduced in Portsmouth by 7% (n392) in 2013/14, but within this overall improvement there were a few areas which require monitoring - in particular most serious violence, domestic abuse and sexual offences. In 59% of domestic incidents (from a dip sample of 120) both the victim and offenders had been involved in previous incidents. It is thought that the increase in sexual offences could be attributed to the media coverage around Operation Yewtree. The impact is believed to include an increased confidence in the criminal justice system and an increased willingness of victims to report crimes both historic and also current.243 Despite the overall reduction, violent crime still accounts for 29% of all crime in Portsmouth and so remains a priority. In comparison to the average for similar areas, Portsmouth rates poorly for violence against the person and alcohol related violence. However, as alcohol related violence is a modelled estimate based on alcohol attributable fractions for each crime category, the higher rate is likely to be linked to the higher rate of violent crime overall.244 When considering the local measure of night time economy violence, the picture for 2013/14 appears a positive one with reductions seen in violent

241

Hay et al (2014), Estimates of the prevalence of opiate and / or crack cocaine use (2011/12) Drug-related deaths in the UK: January-December 2012, http://www.sgul.ac.uk/research/projects/icdp/our-workprogrammes/pdfs/drd_ar_2013.pdf 243 ONS 2014 Crime Survey for England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014. 244 Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West, Local Alcohol Profiles for England, accessed 25/04/2014. 242

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 incidents across all NTE areas in the city and an overall reduction of 18% (n166).245 However, the police have changed the way they police the NTE and so this is an area which needs to be monitored. Another improvement for alcohol misuse performance is the number of alcohol related hospital admissions, with the rate in Portsmouth for 2012/13 (2,012 per 100,000) falling just below the national rate (2,032 per 100,000) and below the rate for the SPP similar areas (2,194 per 100,000).246 This is testament to the significant work undertaken in this area since 2009, as recognised by the highly commended status we were awarded for 'Delivering Better Outcomes' at the Municipal Journal Awards 2014. However, as the impact of this work is seen long-term, it is yet to impact on alcohol related deaths and chronic liver disease, where the Portsmouth rate is still higher than both the national rate and the average for similar areas. As such the current momentum within alcohol misuse needs to be maintained. This work includes campaigns such as 'reducing the strength', which aims to reduce the harm caused by super strength alcohol, which is often linked to alcohol related anti-social behaviour. Respondents to the 2014 Community Safety Survey ranked street drinking as 4th on the list of anti-social behaviours perceived to be a problem in their local area and cited it as one of the main reasons for avoiding the three most avoided areas in Portsmouth (Somerstown, Buckland and Guildhall Walk) so focusing our attention on these areas could improve quality of life for residents. The top three anti-social behaviours experienced by respondents to the 2014 Community Safety Survey were noise (general 13% and domestic 14%), litter (14%) and dog mess (12%). Reflecting this, noise nuisance emerged as the top anti-social behaviour priority. It is likely that noise-related anti-social behaviour is exacerbated by the dense population in Portsmouth and the high proportion of young people in the city and the thriving student population. The increase in reports mirrors the concern of residents, so reducing noise nuisance is likely to improve resident's quality of life. This is not the case for litter and dog fouling where statistics from the Environmental Enforcement Team suggests that incidents of littering and dog fouling fell by 13% and 8% respectively in 2013/14. This requires further investigation as a priority. A dip sample of complex anti-social behaviour cases suggests that in the majority of cases a variety of factors contributed to the anti-social behaviour, such as drug or alcohol misuse, offending history, child protection, domestic abuse and mental health issues. Of the total 90 cases, 86% (n77) had at least one of these contributory factors. The ASB review has identified the need for early intervention and revised processes for risk factors to make sure each incident is dealt with appropriately. A number of the SPP priorities are inter-linked, acting as drivers for one another, with similar risk factors seen across a number of the SPP priorities and the complexity of cases/multiple needs emerging as themes. Further, individuals are characterised by similar life experiences, which often represent missed opportunities for effective engagement at an earlier stage. For example, assessments of adult and young people by Probation and YOT show similar issues, including: mental health issues, substance misuse, family problems, disengagement with education, training and employment and domestic abuse. National research suggests that 75-80% of the substance misuse treatment population suffer with a mental health problem and that 20% of the alcohol related hospital admissions nationally were the result of mental and behavioural disorders. Anecdotally, substance misuse is thought to feature in a high

245 246

This data is provided by Hampshire Constabulary. Public Health England, Knowledge and Intelligence Team, North West, Local Alcohol Profiles for England, accessed 25/04/2014.

Safer Portsmouth Partnership Strategic Assessment 2013/14, version 13 proportion of domestic abuse cases as well as being linked to acquisitive offending, with successful treatment resulting in reductions in re-offending. The full extent of the links between offending, anti-social behaviour, domestic abuse, substance misuse and mental health issues are not fully understood locally, a problem which is compounded by agencies not adequately recording where individuals experience multiple needs, or where incidents are influenced by such factors. However, research and anecdotal evidence suggests that many of the most vulnerable individuals suffer compound issues, and services need to ensure they are taking a holistic and collaborative approach towards their clients, using onward referrals where appropriate. Therefore, despite achieving the agreed targets for most SPP indicators, and with crime and anti-social behaviour falling, further work is needed in the areas of reoffending, substance and alcohol misuse, and domestic abuse with wider support being provided to people in areas such as mental health. Specifically, investment in early intervention with young people, adults and families could produce a significant reduction in demand for high cost services at a later stage.

Appendix A - iQuanta trends for all crime types

Appendix B - Performance summary: Q4 2013/14

Appendix C - Late Night Economy parameters (Previously ELNEP) Reported HO Class Code Short HO Class Desc Reported 104/25 ASSAULT A DESIGNATED PERSON OR HIS ASSISTANT IN THE EXERCISE 8/6

ASSAULT OCCASIONING ACTUAL BODILY HARM

104/23 ASSAULT ON CONSTABLE (POLICE ACT 1996) 34/22 ASSAULT WITH INTENT TO ROB ~ PERSONAL 105/8 ASSAULTING A DESIGNATED OR ACCREDITED PERSON IN THE EXECUTIO 8/31 BREACH OF RESTRAINING ORDER 125/9 CAUSE INTENTIONAL HARASSMENT, ALARM, DISTRESS 5/11 CAUSING DANGER TO ROAD USERS 105/1 COMMON ASSAULT AND BATTERY 88/9 EXPOSURE-INTENTIONAL-MALE OR FEMALE GENITALS 125/11 FEAR OR PROVOCATION OF VIOLENCE 195/94 HARASSMENT (PROTECTION FROM HARASSMENT ETC) 125/12 HARASSMENT, ALARM OR DISTRESS 8/26 HAVING AN ARTICLE WITH A BLADE OR POINT IN A PUBLIC PLACE 24/19 KEEPING A BROTHEL USED FOR PROSTITUTION 8/11 POSSESS OFFENSIVE WEAPON WITHOUT LAWFUL AUTHORITY OR REASONA 125/58 PRE 1/4/10. RACIALLY AGGRAVATED HARASSMENT, ALARM OR DISTRES 19/8 RAPE OF FEMALE OVER 16 YEARS 34/21 ROBBERY PERSONAL 22/12 SEX ACTIVITY WITH A FEMALE CHILD UNDER 16 - PENETRATION - OF 20/6 SEXUAL ASSAULT OF A FEMALE CHILD UNDER 13 20/5 SEXUAL ASSAULT ON A FEMALE 13+ 20/3 SEXUAL ASSAULT ON A FEMALE 13+ BY PENETRATION 17/15 SEXUAL ASSAULT ON A MALE AGED 13+ 17/13 SEXUAL ASSAULT ON A MALE AGED 13+ BY PENETRATION 17/16 SEXUAL ASSAULT ON A MALE CHILD UNDER 13 3/1

THREATS TO KILL

8/60 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED ABH (8J).

8/57 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED COMMON AS 66/91 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED FEAR/PROV 8/56 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED HARASSMEN 125/82 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED HARASSMEN 8/55 WEF 1/4/10. RACIALLY AND/OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED INTENTION 8/1

WOUND OR INFLICT GBH WITH OR WITHOUT WEAPON

5/1

WOUNDING WITH INTENT TO DO GBH

Measured between: 20.00 – 05.00 In the following areas: Guildhall Square: Alec Rose Lane, Dorothy Diamond Street, Guildhall Square, Guildhall Walk, King Henry 1st Street, White Swan Road, Winston Churchill Avenue. Commercial Road: Commercial Place, Commercial Road, Edinburgh Road, Stanhope Road. Central Southsea: Albert Road, Albert Grove, Elm Grove, Highland Road, Fawcett Road, Victoria Grove, Duncan Road Portsmouth South: Clarendon Mews, Clarendon Place, Clarendon Road, Granada Road, Palmerston Road, South Parade (incl Pier), Osbourne Road Gunwharf: Gunwharf Keys, Gunwharf Road, The Canalside, The Plaza (East Side Plaza), The Hard, The Waterfront, Central Square, Gunwharf Quays Plaza, Vulcan Square, Ordnance Row, St George’s Road. Northend: Fratton Road, Kingston Crescent, Kingston Road, London Avenue, London Road

Appendix D - Matrix used to identify SPP priorities

Appendix E - Portsmouth Community Safety Survey 2014: changes to the Methodology The questionnaire has been amended since the last CSS, which means that many questions could not be directly compared with previous surveys and with the Crime Survey of England and Wales. This was a conscious decision to allow improvements in the wording of the questions and improvements to the methodology. In short, it has given us greater detail, which is more useful to the Safer Portsmouth Partnership on a local level.247 This survey was completed in house for the first time, having been previously conducted by Ipsos MORI and in 2012 in partnership with the University of Portsmouth. Fieldworkers were recruited by the community safety team and received training to assist with administering the questionnaires. Data entry and analysis was also completed in house, which gave us much more understanding of the data, and will give us the opportunity to consider the data in further detail as required. Using volunteers, students and existing staff, the cost of the whole project was under ÂŁ5,000. The last MORI Survey commissioned by the SPP cost ÂŁ25,000. All the questionnaires were completed in an interview style, with the fieldworkers completing questionnaires on behalf of the respondent. The fieldwork was conducted at a number of locations across Portsmouth to try and ensure that residents from all wards were well represented. A change in methodology meant that respondents were not shown the answer options as they had been in the previous survey, except to indicate which crimes they had experienced. This means that respondents were not asked leading questions, but reported their own genuine concerns. This has resulted in lower percentages for the anti-social behaviour, crime and location questions.

247

The full report detailing the changes to the questions and the rationale behind the changes is available from the research team upon request.

Appendix F - SPP Venn Diagram

Anti-social behaviour 30% of Young People reported they had been bullied & 16% had been worried or upset by something that happened online. ('Children and Young People Survey 2014')

Alcohol misuse

1,032 individuals were in treatment for alcohol misuse - this is a higher proportion in treatment than our comparator areas

47% of offenders supervised by probation misuse alcohol

Young people at risk Domestic abuse is a common factor in child protection plans (69%, n153) and child protection conferences (61%, n60 for Q4 2013/14)

There were 635 children involved in the 618 cases that went to MARAC

Domestic Abuse is the most common driver for violent assaults (32%, n1,047).

Domestic violence Dip sample of 120 domestic incidents found 59% (n71) of incidents both victim and offenders had been involved in previous incidents

At least 30% (n289) of the probation caseload in Portsmouth were at risk of violence towards their partner

Adult re-offending

The majority of known offenders are in the 18 to 24 years age category (31.5%, n1,066)

The Children's Society survey 2013/14 found that 8% had used cannabis in the last year (compared with 7% in 2013) 31% of individuals accessing treatment services are currently experiencing, or have previously experienced DA

Estimated 1,549 opiate and crack cocaine users (OCUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s) a 20% (n260) increase on previous year

68% (n395) of the 579 injectors received Hepatitis C Virus tests

32% of offenders supervised by probation misuse drugs

The most prolific offenders were responsible for 404 offences / 2.4% of all Crime

The majority of known offenders still only commit one known offence each year (71.9%, n1,909)

Crime 67

14% increase in in the number of adults effectively engaged in drug treatment

Drug misuse

The rate of 16% of Young People alcohol related had been drunk in the hospital last 4 weeks admissions (2,012 per 100,000) is The Children's Society lower than the survey reported that national rate and 37% their parents the average for provided alcohol our comparator areas At least 29% Portsmouth falls in of DV assaults the ten worst involved performing local alcohol, authorities although it nationally for may be as alcohol specific much as 76% mortality in females

There were 180 Young Offenders, a 10% reduction compared to 12/13 The number of children in care has been on a slightly increasing trend for the last five years â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a 4% n12 increase from 31 March 13

12 in treatment reported Novel Psychoactive Substances (NPS) as a problem