EUROPE THE FUTURE OF THE V4
V4 – Let It Rest In Peace
EDWARD LUCAS
British journalist. International Editor of The Economist.
H
istory, geography and economics have overtaken the V4 and their cozy club is looking shabby and out of date. I don’t think it can recover. One reason is size. With a GDP of $470 billion (2010), Poland is bigger than the Czech Republic ($198 billion), Slovakia ($87 billion) and Hungary ($129 billion) combined. That leaves no room for a partnership of equals. Unlike in the era of Lech Kaczyński, Poland’s foreign policy has no room for sentiment, to the the East or South. Herding a bunch of small countries with different viewpoints is unattractive when compared to the current policy of dealing with the big ones directly. No overriding common interest bridges the gap in size. All four countries have gained entry to Schengen, NATO and the European Union. The only other club that matters is the
euro: Slovakia is in, but the other three are not. But nothing that happens in Visegrad will ease their paths into the common currency. Their attitude to the new EU treaty also differs: the Poles want in, and the Czechs want out (whereas the Slovaks are in by default, and the Hungarians are struggling to shed their “basket case” label). Energy security produced a flicker of revival in V4 cooperation some years ago. It is in everyone’s interest to have the north-south gas interconnectors, freeing the four countries from dependence on east-west gas lines run by Russia. But that project is now largely completed. The EU has woken up to the danger of gas dependency on Russia and has pushed through the “unbundling” (liberalization) needed to break Gazprom’s grip. The remaining big headache is that the Baltic States remain an “energy island”—but they are a long way from Visegrad. Finally, the four countries differ politically. Though the Czechs, Slovaks and Poles will not criticize Viktor Orbán publicly, they dislike his approach as both clumsy and politically costly. V4 cooperation served its purpose in making Central Europe look, literally, central to the continent’s future. Now it is just another set of meetings, of which there are already too many. Let it rest in peace.
From Poor Neighbors to Partners
TOMÁŠ SEDLÁČEK
Czech economist and university lecturer. Chief of Macroeconomic Strategist at ČSOB, member of the National Economic Council of the Czech Republic
A
t the moment, it seems that the V4 could not be more divergent when it comes to their European stances. Poland is very optimistic and, in a way, a leader of the integration debate, calling for more integration and offering help. Also, the economy seems to be running relatively well, but Poland does not use the euro. Slovakia does use the euro, but is not as willing to 10
contribute when compared to Poland. In this sense, Slovakia is both the most integrated of all the Visegrad countries yet still holding back. A dark question mark hangs over the Hungarian economy and its politics. As a country that is dependent on international help but has long dragged its feet on reforms, Hungary is now testing the patience of other countries, especially in political terms. The will for integration is verbally strong, but practical political steps and the state of the economy will prevent adoption of the euro in the near future. The Czech Republic's economy and politics are respected internationally, but the strong voice of President Klaus against the EU seems to be the loudest in all of the member countries. Although the most economically advanced in the Visegrad neighborhood, politically and rhetorically the Czechs are one of the weakest supporters of further EU integration and euro adoption, although this would likely be in their best interest economically. VISEGRAD INSIGHT 1|2012