:
-
-
Email : pimpen@pdmo.go.th 7
10.15 – 12.00
: E-Book 2555
by AGE
PDMO is driven by young generation with wits & will
22
40%
60
23
24
25
26
27 HiPPS
50
40
30
20
10
HiPPS
0 AGE range
23-25 26-30
31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 Total = 223
130
2553 บริหารสูง (10)
1
ทรงคุณวุฒ ิ (10)
1
บริหารต้น (9)
1/10 1/10
133 235
1/57 1/53 1/35
1,200 2,000 3,600
1/100 1/100
4,700 18,500
1
1
อานวยการสูง (9 บส)
1
2
3
4
่ วชาญ (9 ชช) เชีย
1
2
3
4
อานวยการต้น (8 บก)
1
2
ชานาญการพิเศษ (8ว)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
ชานาญการ (6-7)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
ปฏิบ ัติการ (3-5)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
+1
2553
2553
5
+10
1 10 40
41
42
43
44
40
41
42
43
44
45
:
46
47
48
49
50
28
0%
Source : CIA – The World Fact Book 12% 11%
18%
9%
108. Hong Kong
18%
8%
17%
16% 15% 15% 14%
107. China
8%
19% 19% 19% 18%
60%
18%
31. India
18%
22. England
18%
8. Greece
14%
24% 20% 20%
28%
20%
27% 26%
26% 25%
69%
19%
29% 28%
108%
19%
31%
31%
31%
30%
30%
30%
89. Indonesia
42%
30%
56. Thailand
24%
33% 33%
32% 32% 32%
2012
32%
Legal
24%
35% 35% 35% 34% 34%
HR
31%
40% 39% 38%
Benchmark bond / Asia Bond / Sovereign Fund Management
38%
Bond market development
38%
Debt management (SOEs)
33%
44% 44% 44% 43%
48%
43%
Research & Policy Planning
36%
47% 47%
53%
46%
42. America
46%
Public Debt to GDP (by country)
46%
personnel
45%
Credit scoring / Yankee Bond / Samurai Bond
42%
49% 49% 49%
48% 48%
Risk modeling / credit rating / loan negotiation
41%
50%
47%
54% 54% 53% 52% 52%
59%
50%
59%
59% 58%
192%
58%
2. Japan
58%
304%
304%
55%
192%
1. Zimbabwe
55%
64% 64%
62% 61% 60% 60%
75% 72% 70% 69%
185%
IT
54%
50% 68%
77%
67%
115%
18. Germany
67%
83%
80% 80%
78%
108%
150%
78%
% 105%
10 99%
156%
200%
95%
132%
% to GDP
77%
87%
118%
304%
Zimbabwe Japan Saint Kitts and Nevis Lebanon Jamica Singapore Italy Greece Sudan Belgium Iceland Nicaragua Sri Lanka Egypt France Hungary Israel Germany Portugal Canada Jordan United Kingdom Ghana Malta Austria Cote d'Ivorie Ireland Netherlands Croatia Norway India Phillippines Uruguay Mauritius Malawi Bhutan El Salvador Albania Kenya Morocco World United States Cyprus Vietnam Spain Panama Costa Rica Argentina Turkey Malaysia Poland United Arab Emirates Tunisia Brazil Aruba Columbia Thailand Pakinstan Bolivia Seychelles Switzerland Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina Dominican Republic Finland Yemen Denmark Bangladesh Montenegro Mexico South Africa Cuba Gabon Slovakia Pupua New Guinea Taiwan Czech Republic Guatamala Latvia Macedonia Syria Ethiopia Zambia Slovenia Lithunia Serbia Moldova Bahrain Ukraine Indonesia New Zealand Korea, South Trinidad and Tobago Mozambique Peru Tanzania Honduras Paraguay Senegal Saudi Arabia Ecudor Romania Iran Venezuela Uganda Namibia Australia China Hong Kong Botswana Nigeria Angola Gibraltar Bulgaria Luxembourg Cameroon Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Algeria Chile Kuwait Estonia
What can you do @ PDMO? (
PDMO manages the Nation’s Portfolio… 4,248,399,540,000baht (42% of GDP) 1
CFO 1.1
1.1.1
Financial market monitoring & execution
Settlement & forex
Audit
Too BiG Too FaLL???
WORLD 54%
6. Singapore
118%
Very High HDI 2009 est.
High HDI
Medium HDI
32. Philippines
Low HDI
50. Malaysia
91. South Korea
1.2
8
1.3
Debt management (Gov’t) 1.2.1 /GDP 1.3.1
1.2.2 / 1.3.2
1.4
1.4.1
2.1
Project Finance 2.1.1
2.2
2.2.1 Benchmark Bond
Floating Rate Bond
2.2.2
4
2554-2556
May 2011
2
2.3
2.3.1
3
(Pro-active Debt Management)
Benchmark
3.1 3.2
3.1.1
IT 3.2.1
3.3
PMQA
3.3.1
3.2.2
1.2.3
Debt Prepayment Allocation 1.2.4
5 :
3.4
Financing & monitoring MEGA projects 3.4.1
Capital Market Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
3 3 Pillars of Financial Market System Capital market
3
Loan Market
The Rude Awakening Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
% of GDP
140% 128%
120% 100%
92%
80%
77%
67%
60%
7.7 THB Trillion March 2012
40% 24% Asian Fin. Crisis
20%
12%
Bank Loan /GDP
Equity/GDP
Bond Market / GDP
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0%
Debt Market
Market maker
Commercial banks
Corporate/SOE
Market participants
Borrowers/Savers
Investors1
Products
Loans/Deposits/LC
Stock
Loan Bond/Saving Bond/ T-bill/ Promissory Note
Returns
Interest rates
Dividend/Capital Gain
Coupons
1 - Yearly cumulative since 1 Jan 2010 – 23 Aug 2010 2 - As of June 2010
1997 Asian Financial Crisis
Equity Market Retail 60% Domestic Institution 20% Foreign Institution 20%
Corporate/MOF/BOT/SOE Investors2
Retail 78% Domestic Institution 18% Foreign Institution 4%
Bond Market Developed Rapidlyand andEfficiently Efficiently The The ThaiThai Bond Market hasHas Developed Rapidly
Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly for More Than a Decade Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
As of March 2012 (Classified by Types of Issuers)
120% 100%
92% 77% 67%
80% 60%
24%
40%
7.7 THB Trillion
Asian Fin. Crisis
20%
Baht Bond
1%
Corp. Bond
19%
SOE Bond
6%
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
2000
Equity / GDP
BOT Bond
Bond Market / GDP
2.9 THB Trillion
Maturity Profile
38%
BOT vs GOVT Bond BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 6yrs 7mths
14%
68% BOT < 1y
GOVT Bond 18%
MOF
29%
20% 3%
28%
20%
2-3y
3-5y
6-10y
11-50y
2.7 THB Trillion
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments
36%
1,150,000 THB Mil. ($40 bil)
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB 3 yr
150,000 THB Mil. ($5 bil.)
LB 5 yr
120,000 THB Mil. ($4 bil.)
LB 7 yr
80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)
LB 10 yr
80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)
LB 15 yr
60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.)
LB 20 yr LB 30 yr
60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.) 30,000 THB Mil. ($1 bil.)
LB 50 yr
20,000 THB Mil. ($0.8 bil.)
Benchmark Bond 10 7 5
3
Bond Market Capitalisation tripled Government Bonds Outstanding grew by 50 times Government Bond Market Share jumped from 3% in 1997 to 44% in 2000
Regular Benchmark Issuance New Product Development Regular Market Dialogue with BoT and PDs
Development Oriented
Next Step 2011-13: (Market Deepening Oriented) 50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond Upgrade PD Privileges Regional Linkage (CGIF) Amortizing Bond Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation
67%
March 2012
Bank Laon / GDP
2007 – 2010 :
Volume Oriented
12% 1992
0%
Post Crisis – 2000 :
50 30 20
15 ($20 bil.)
Benchmark Bond
~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
($3 bil.)
Savings Bond
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
($3 bil.)
Promissory Note
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
($1.5 bil.)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($1.5 bil.)
Inflation-Linked Bond
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($1.2 bil.)
Floating Rate Bond
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
($7 bil.)
Bank Loan
($40 bil.)
Total
~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
Pre-Crisis - Illiquid Bond Market - Absence of Benchmark Bond - Dominated by SoE’s Bonds
% of GDP
128%
140%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Domestic Bond Market Capitalisation = 7.7 THB Trillion
THB Trillion
% of GDP
FY2007 – FY2013
Development of Government Debt Securities
Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FY 2007-10
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
50-year Benchmark Bond March 2nd 2011
12-year and 18-year Fixed-rate Promissory Bond
30-year Benchmark Bond
December 22nd 2010
April 23nd 2008
FY 2011
10-year Inflation Linked Bond July 11th 2011
6-year Step-up Savings Bond
5-year Step-up Savings Bond
June 7th 2010
4-year Floating Rate Bond
FY 2012-2013
July 15th 2009
3-year Retail Bond @ ATM
July 27th 2009
September 12th 2011
FY 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012-2013
2550 PDMO Revised the Strategy of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 ways (FY2007-FY2013) ,
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
I. Reduce Auction Frequency
II. Increase Auction Size
from
Once a Week to Every Other Month
(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 15,00020,000
Unit : THB Mil
4,000 FY
6,0008,000 FY
III. Increase Outstanding Size
8,00010,000
FY
10,00012,000
FY
12,00015,000
FY
FY
FY
FY
F
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 150,000200,000
Unit : THB Mil
40,000
15,00020,000
50,00080,000 FY
80,000100,000
FY
100,000120,000
FY
100,000120,000
FY
120,000150,000
FY
FY
F
30-yr Loan Bond
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity ATM Government Debt Portfolio 5.7yrs to 6.1yrs • Meet long term investors’ demand
Floating Rate Bond
• Increase floating debt ratio (10% to 18%) • Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
Step-up Savings Bond
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors • Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
Fixed Rate Promissory Note
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors • Non-Benchmark tenors
50-yr Loan Bond
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity • 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)
Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Strong anti-inflationary signal • Deepen the Development of the Bond market • 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase • Offer throughout the year • Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
Amortizing Bond
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
Bond Switching & Consolidation
• Allow both issuer and investors to manage and improve their portfolio • Larger outstanding size + Less bond series more liquidity in the secondary market
PDDF
Upgrade PD Privileges
(Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)
Baht Bond
CGIF
(Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
0
Benchmark Bond
Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.
(-34%) T-Bill (Outstanding)
Others
Treasury Balance = 542,144 THB Mil.
> 100,000 THB Mil in Size (45% of Trading Volume) (28% of Trading Volume)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Apr 12)
Top 5 3
TOP 5
Next 10
Bottom 30
45%
28%
27%
3
Next 10
0
50
100
(50,000-100,000) FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
10
ILB 10 % %
5
FRB 50
1
9
30
3
7
A
A LB
A LB
15
LB A LB326A LB DA LB27DA
A LB
LB A LB616A
LB165A LB A
A
OA
LB
LB
A
NA
LB
LB
A
NA LB
7
LB A LB193A
DA
LB
A
LB
A
LB A LB416A
A
2
LB
A
5 13 19
LB
2
LB
A
7
LB
A
DA
LB
A
DA
LB
LB
5
LB
A LB
2
LB
A LB
4
A
A
1
DA
A
LB
7
LB
A
LB
4
LB
A
LB
9 16
LB A LB176A
A
NA
LB
10
LB
5
LB
10
ILB217A ILB A
B
6
OA
1
LB
7
LB21DA LB DA
A
LB
3
LB
B 2
A
LB
3
LB
LB155A LB A
TTM (Year)
LB DA LB15DA
20
LB
5
A
7
LB
30
300,000
Fixed P/N
Plan
Actual
177,770
149,110
-16%
Bank Loan (Outstanding)
400,000
Float P/N
45,000
190,514 54,014
1,075
-
40,000
ILB
+5%
200,000
100,000
0
-44%
Benchmark Bond
Non Benchmark Bond
-4%
+6%
Savings Bond
+116%
T-Bill (Outstanding)
-13%
ILB
Float P/N
+96%
Fixed P/N
-92% 30,030
199,110
1,140,000 THB Mil to 750,000 THB Mil
T-Bill (Outstanding)
-23%
88,249
321,171
Total Funding needs decreased from:
Savings Bond
45,000
-51%
Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size
(>100,000)
THB Mil.
Non Benchmark Bond
THB Mil.
-45%
Savings Bond
TOP 5
(2,277,XXX THB Mil)
approx. -390,000
154,000
131,000
Non Benchmark Bond
FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 45 Series
390,000 THB Mil. Undrawn Decree (Water + Insurance)
82,233
(-20%)
60,000
100,000
800,000 THB Mil to 640,000 THB Mil
170,000
+118%
Benchmark Bond
FY2012
+8%
261,171
200,000
Total Funding needs decreased from:
Actual
281,000
309,826
310,000
300,000
95,000
400,000
Plan
0%
Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery
0
Treasury Balance = 510,180 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
FY2010
approx. -160,000 THB Mil.
Others
-72%
+344%
125,122
T-Bill (Outstanding)
-38%
120,231
400,000
Savings Bond
105,782
Treasury Balance = 278,694 THB Mil.
Non Benchmark Bond
110,850
Benchmark Bond
-26%
100,000
(- 36%)
59%)
(+
Actual
345,751
+33%
420,000 THB Mil. to 670,000 THB Mil.
100,000
70,000
Total Funding needs decreased from: 700,000 THB Mil to 400,000 THB Mil
+86%
330,000
Total Funding needs increased from:
9,000
200,000
52,180
THB Mil.
approx.+250,000 THB Mil.
60,000
approx. -250,000
300,000
204,000
Higher than expected Revenue collection
+170%
125,691
+2%
Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package
Plan
-3%
34,600
FY2011
THB Mil.
30,000
FY2009
400,000
Actual
64,659
+40% Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
THB Mil.
349,500
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty
339,900
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Bank Loan (Outstanding)
• •
• •
ATM %
%
,
,
%
%
% %
% %
6
%
250,000
…
…
5
%
5
%
5
%
%
%
200,000
4
4
%
150,000
%
3
3
3
%
%
%
4
%
3
%
100,000
77%
64% 50,000
42%
33%
1
-
2
3
4
5
2554F
• •
2553
1
34
44
80,000
(60 วงเงินซอ
100%
) านวนบัญชี
บงตา อายุเ า้ องบ ัญชี
บงตา อายุเ ้า องบัญชี
12,000
40,000
วงเงิน าหนายทังห ด =
40%
50%
36%
บ
34
32,000
40%
44%
9,000
30%
60% 30%
47
40,000
%
บ
,
80%
บ
,
60,000
%
24,000
47%
30%
6,000
40%
34%
19
20,000
20%
19%
21% 16,000
15%
14%
20%
18%
% 3,000
20%
10%
12%
7%
10%
8% 0%
2%
2%
1%
8,000
2%
1%
1%
1%
10%
1%
-
2%
0%
-
10,000 50,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2%
3%
-
-
2%
120,000
2%
0
1% -
0% -
0% -
านวนบ ัญชี
100%
-
-
-
-
3%
2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
วงเงินซอ
บงตา อายุเ า้ องบ ัญชี
50,000
40%
บงตา อายุเ ้า องบัญชี
12,000
40% 36%
านวนบัญชีทงห ั ด=
100,000
บัญชี
บ ัญชี
, 80%
41% 9,000 37,500
80,000
30%
30%
บัญชี
,
34,745
60%
24
60,000
40,000
30
10
%
32 %
7%
5%
24%
4
3%
2%
1%
16,157
-
-
-
-
-
1% -
3,000
13,257 12,500
7%
0% -
-
10%
10%
2%
0% -
20%
19%
20%
20%
%
10,000 50,000
6,000
24,320
25,000
15%
%
10%
7%
25,676
40%
14%
20,000 8%
%
32%
-
2,863
3,316
-
-
2,481 0% -
-
-
-
-
-
2%
2%
0
1,065 -
3%
0% -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
1%
=
=
4%
* * *
%
135,736 104,000
PAR
100,000
PAR
36,000
100,000
10,464 1–9
10
1–9
10
Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Format Currency Tenor
Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection) Thai Baht 10 years
Programme Size Interest Payment
40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.) Every 6 months
Index Indexation Lag Index Ratio
Headline CPI 3 months CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)
Real Yield Repayment Method
1.2 Bullet
Next Step Continuing Issuance
PD’s responsibility
8 International AWARDS
+ 2 Domestic AWARDS
Allocations Foreign Institutions
Local Institutions
15,000 MB
20,000 MB
5,000 MB
Subscription : approx. 1.6 times
Local Retail
Enhance ILB liquidity
FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter) FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.) (15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug) FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)
FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary market FY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary market FY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market Best Sovereign Bond 2011 Best Thailand Deal 2011 Best Local Currency Bond 2011 Best Thailand Deal 2011 Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 Deal of the Year from Asia Outstanding Issuer of the Year The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011 Deal of the Year 2011 Most Creative Issue 2011
Enhance Liquidity
: Asiamoney Awards : Asiamoney Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : IFRAsia Asia Awards : Euro Money : Asset Asian Awards 2011 : Euroweek Asia : ThaiBMA : ThaiBMA
Funding Instruments : Local Bond Market VS Foreign Bond Markets Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Well Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs
FYFull2012 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB Mil Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.
Potential Demand for Gov’t Bond 2012
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB 3 yr
150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yr
120,000 THB Mil.
LB 7 yr
80,000 THB Mil.
LB 10 yr
80,000 THB Mil.
LB 15 yr
60,000 THB Mil.
LB 20 yr
60,000 THB Mil.
LB 30 yr
30,000 THB Mil.
LB 50 yr
20,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
CB 6% 50
SB
20 15
10
7 5
Benchmark Bond
~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
Savings Bond
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Promissory Note
~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
3
Household and Non-profit
15% Depository Corporation
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond
~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
Bank Loan
Total
35%
1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
400
Depository Corporations
400
- Retail - Non-profit org.
200
Non-Residence
?
Bank loan FRB / LB
Source : CB (30 January 2012)
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Outstanding of Foreign Debt Equiv. 41,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt) Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil
33%
- Life Insurance - Pension Funds
~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Inflation-Linked Bond
Commercial Papers Samurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen Mil Samurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen Mil MTN 40 USD Mil
Insurance and Other Corporation
NR 12%
30
THB Bil.
P/N LB
LB 5/10 ILB
• To diversify portfolio of government debt • To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market • To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers
Equiv. 28,000 THB Mil Soft Loans JBIC IBRD Other
64,800 Yen Mil 66 USD Mil 19 USD Mil
• To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market
(as of Oct 2011)
Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Trillion.) Profile Dramatically
ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
As of Dec 2007
As of Dec 2011 ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 2 yrs
7yrs 5mths ATM
5yrs 3mths Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 10 bps
4.5%
.
Avg. cost
4.4%
(While ATM Lengthened by 2 yrs)
Float
Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
10%
Float
Fixed
Fixed
90%
82%
Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009
61%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile next 5 yrs
Maturity Profile as of Dec 2011
52% 24%
(Target : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs ≤ 50% of Total Debt)
18%
year 6 - 10
20%
15% 10 yrs +
next 5 yrs
year 6 - 10
28%
10 yrs +
Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Issuers
• 80 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade by local rating agencies
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)
Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)
Government Bonds (Classified by Types of Investors)
BBB Non-rated
2% 2%
A
Private Sector
20% SOEs
CB 10%
7%
AA
NR 9%
5% AAA
Government
36%
6%
4%
Government
SOEs
36%
6
%
Household and Non-profit
Insurance and Other Corporation
Central Bank
Central Bank
Depository Corporation
38%
38% Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)
32%
9% 40%
Source : CB (30 April 2012)
Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)
Annual Funding Needs Will Always Be around 500,000 THB Mil. Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Water Decree
TENTATIVE THB Mil.
1,000,000
Deficit Deficit Restructuring FIDF Restructuring TKK TKK Restructuring Water Management Decree Insurance Decree
June
350,000
06/13 50,000
Insurance Decree
80,000 98,161
TKK
340,122
260,000
500,000 67,740
FIDF FIDF
25,000 56,582
441,061
222,003
58,940
94,170
129,124
58,940
75,171
139,171
113,014
25,000
52,000
232,575
165,000
64,970
199,239 219,222
400,000 300,000
200,666
200,000 100,000
-
Annual Funding Needs (THB Mil.)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013 F
2014 F
2015 F
246,582
686,962
656,746
424,620
1,140,122*
536,973
622,533
453,333
*Not Including Pre-Mature Debt Restructuring of 167,000 THB Mil. (TKK = 149,000 THB Mil. & FIDF = 18,000 THB Mil.)
As of May 2012
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
-
:
2,500
50%
2,070 1,952
2,000
1,700
1,660 1,566
! Last Resort
1,495
1,500
40%
1,650
1,511
30%
1,420
1,360 1,360
1,164
1,000 843 843
984 984 923 923
715 715
1,023 1,000 825 800
860 750
1,350
1,250 1,250
1,064
%
910 805
823
20%
825
%
% %
500
10%
คาเฉ ย ี่ GDP Growth คาเฉ ย ี่ ร้อย ะงบ าดดุ ตองบประ าณราย าย
Fiscal Stimulus averaged 7% TKK 2012 : 1,296 Billion of GDP (FY2009 - FY2011) additional public borrowing Budget Deficit % to GDP (RHS)
Baht (2008-2012) others 107 Public Health 8% 108 8% Community Investment 141 11%
Billion Baht
Education 144 Energy 11%
157 12%
Logistic 370 29%
Agriculture 269 21%
20%
TKK Source : Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
= 34
2554
2553
2552
2551
2550
2549
2548
2547
2546
2545
2544
2543
2542
2541
2540
2539
0% 2538
0
ปี งป . 2541 - 2546 ปี งป . 2547 - 2551 ปี งป . 2552 - 2554 2.2% 4.6% 1.9% 10.7% 5.6% 21.2%
Huge stimulus package resulted
in 10-year high GDP growth despite political turbulence Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment 18%
3,000,000
17%
Nominal GDP % growth (Q-on-Q) and GDP current price (million baht)
Rajprasong Incident
14%
13% 12%
12%
11%
11% 9% 8%
8%
8%
9%
8%
2,000,000
9%
9%
US financial Crisis
6%
1,000,000
Military Coup
0%
0
-2% -3%
million baht Q2
2010-Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
2009-Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
2008-Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
2007-Q1
-1,000,000 Q4
Q3
Q2
% change (Q-on-Q) 2006-Q1
-6%
-3%
-4%
Songkran Incident
3
:
.
:
â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
,
World
Thailand
How many Thailand?
:
Source : TIME, October 6, 2008
Major Central Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Policy Rate CUTS within 3 days NZ 7.50% CHI 6.93% AU 6.00% BOE 4.50% ECB 3.75% RP 3.75%
?
FED 1.50%
BOJ 0.5%
The FED led a coordinated round of global official rate cuts on easing by a half-point, as did the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss, Canadian and Swedish banks because of growing evidence of weaker economic activity and reduced inflationary pressure. Source : compiled by KTC
IMF foresees that Thailand will enjoy
Hugh stimulus pays off
strongest rebound among ASEANâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;5
(excl China & India)
Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO
NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment
15
% change (Y-on-Y)
Real GDP (year on year percentage change) China
10
India
7.8%
4%
5
0
0.1% -2.3%
-5 2008 China
2009
India
Hong kong
2010F
Korea
Indonesia
2011F
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Thailand
Source : World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2010
What will likely be the cause of the next crisis? 15
Sufficiency Economy Philosophy /
Financial Liberalization
/
/
Financial liberalization
10
/
Economy / Social / Environment / Culture Balance / Ability to cope
Japanese Wave
Tsunami
Middle path
GDP Growth rate
5
Moderation
0 Bubble tech Asian Fin. crisis
Persian Gulf War
Fin. Crisis (Lehman bros.)
Reasonableness Self - immunity
2nd Oil Crisis
-5
Knowledge condition expert, carefully, Carefulness
-10
Tom Yum Kung Crisis Thailand
United States
WORLD
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
-15 Year
Moderation
Source : Dr. Sumet Tantivejkul Member Secretary General Chaipattana Foundation EBA October 2006
Moral/Ethical condition Honesty, integrity, Generosity, Harmlessness
Bond Market Development Bureau Tel. Government Bond Market Development Division
FAX
E-mail Pimpen Ladpli Pothirat Kijsriopak Ittipong Kanluan Raveewan Buanung Anong Chaithong
pimpen@pdmo.go.th pothirat@pdmo.go.th ittipong@pdmo.go.th raveewan@pdmo.go.th anong@pdmo.go.th
02-271-7999 02-357-3576
Extension 5802 5812 5806 5801 5817
Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division E-mail Nattakarn Boonsri Onpreeya Chungpanich Puttipong Kanna Taninrat Wongsuppapat Wantanee Po-ngam Wilawan Prachasin
nattakarn@pdmo.go.th onpreeya@pdmo.go.th puttipong@pdmo.go.th taninrat@pdmo.go.th wanthanee@pdmo.go.th wilawan@pdmo.go.th
Extension 5803 5805 5808 5811 5814 5816
International Bond Market Policy Division E-mail Chatmanee Sinsiri Busabong Tantamaneerat Veeraya Julamont Laksika Tengpratip Thatree Intharasut Sindruthai Pulsirivong
chatmanee@pdmo.go.th busabong@pdmo.go.th veeraya@pdmo.go.th laksika@pdmo.go.th thatree@pdmo.go.th sindruthai@pdmo.go.th
Extension 5804 5818 5807 5813 5815 5819