How to increase penetration of renewables in energy system Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb, Croatia
Long term Development of the Energy Market in Macedonia and the Region, June, 2016, Skopje DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
LCOE – various technologies DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
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PV revolucija Grid parity reached in 102 countries
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power sector developments New installed and decommissioned power capacity in EU, 2015 [MW], EWEA
In and out …
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power sector developments Global installed generation capacity net change, 2015 [GW] Bloomberg New Energy Finance/UNEP Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016
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Power sector developments EU electricity generation installed capacity net change, 2000-2015 [MW], EWEA
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Wind share in electricity demand 2015
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
hard easy
Denmark – 42% Ireland, Portugal – 24% Cape Verde, Spain – 20% Nicaragua, Germany – 15% Costa Rica, Romania – 13% Sweden – 12% Uruguay, EU – 10% Estonia – 9% Lithuania, Greece, Poland – 7% Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Morocco, UK – 6% Croatia, Cyprus, Honduras, India, Italy, N. Zealand, US – 5% Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, Tunisia, Turkey, World – 4% Brazil, Chile, Finland – 3% Dominican R, Hungary, Latvia, Lux., Macedonia, Norway,– 2% Czechia, Japan, Mexico2014, Ukraine – 1%
PV revolution
Solar share in electricity demand 2015 Greece, Italy – 8% Germany – 7% EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4% Czech Rep., Romania, Spain – 3% World, Denmark, Malta, Lux., Slovakia, Slovenia, UK – 2% Austria, Cyprus, France, Netherlands, Portugal, US – 1% Croatia, Hungary – 0.5% DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
How to increase penetration of renewables in energy system? • • • •
More grid capacity Cycling of thermal power plants Power exchanges Demand management and integration of power, heating, cooling, transport and water systems • Energy storage DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion
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Baseload + wind
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Flexibility of conventional PP
Flexible generation: Backing up renewables, RESAP, EURELECTRIC, 2011 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity market Electricity price = marginal cost Fuel oil
Demand
Supply
Gas
Marginal cost Import Coal
HE NE
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Base load
Electricity market Electricity price = marginal cost Fuel oil
Demand
Supply
Gas Imports
Marginal cost Wind
NE
Coal
HE
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Base load – windy night
Nord pool spot DK+EE+FI+LT+ LV+NO+SE 75% market http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Market-data1/Maps/ElspotMarket-Overview/Elspot-Prices
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Go-live! NWE+CWE price coupling on February 4, 2014 75% of European power market ES+PT connected in May 2014 IT+SI connected in Feb 2015
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Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?
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A new coal power plant? New coal PP 80
500 MW * 8000 h * 50 EUR/MWh = 200 MEUR/year subsidy
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Markets and RES
Consequences of market liberalisation: Demission of base load The importance of balancing power (gas, hydro) Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by 2020) Market arbitrage (time delay, power-to-heat, power-to-water, e-mobility, demand management, power-to-efuels)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power to heat
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Demand management
Electromobility Only personal cars and short distance utility vehicles, 430000 PHEV and BEV sold in 2015 If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap) Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Smart charging
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
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Conclusions
Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate Integration of power, heating, cooling, water and transport system necessary Great time for engineers! Natural gas and hydro critical for transition DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Supply side 2050 – SEE 100% RES
Zero carbon energy system of South East Europe in PV: 65 GW 2050, D.F. Dominković, I. Bačeković, B. Ćosić, G. Wind: 50 GW Krajačić, T. Pukšec, N. Duić, N. Markovska, Applied Energy, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.046 CSP: 11 GW Dammed hydro: from 18.8 to 23.5 GW Large-scale HPs: 1.5 GW Solar thermal with energy storage in DH: 13.3 % Seasonal thermal energy storage: 230 GWh Waste incineration plants: 0.96 GWe Geothermal plants: 1.25 GWe Geothermal heating plants: 7.5 GW River hydro, pumped-hydro 2 GW, 1000 GWh Decommission of nuclear PPs Reduction in thermal power plants capacity to 24.7 GW
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Благодарам за вниманието! Neven.Duic@fsb.hr
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT