UNIVERSITY OF NICOSIA SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND EUROPEAN STUDIES
SENIOR YEAR PROJECT The uprising of Egypt: Achieving a sustainable democratic development
Student:
Loizos Michail
Supervisors:
Dr Michael Attalides Dr George Kentas
Loizos Michail 2 The uprising of Egypt: Achieving a sustainable democratic development
Abstract The following paper discusses the Economic and Political History of Egypt; Political situation of Egypt before and after the revolution. Egypt upraising that led to resignation of the sitting president Hosni Mubarak after pressure was mounted on him by angry protesters and the United States. The reasons that led to this uprising, reforms that should be done based on western model of democracy sustainable democratic development of a county measure to achieve this in Egypt (Bruce, 46). Egypt is an African country that is most strategically located at the bridge of Africa and Europe. In addition to its being strategically located with respect to land Egypt enjoys being strategically located with respect to sea (Carrie, 65). This country is acts as the bridge between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea both of which give an access to an ocean. That notwithstanding in Egypt we find the Great river Nile that cut across the land through to other regions in Africa. Geographically she has it all. This region is now occupied by Israel–Palestine whose Settlement and development goes back to the climate of North Africa which is believed was different from the current one. About ten thousand years ago the area was watered, had animals and people who at the moment live far to the south. Politically the country has been under a continuous state of emergency since the assassination of Mubarak’s predecessor, Anwar Sadat in 1981 (New York Times, before the assassination Hosni Mubarak was the Vice president. On the
Loizos Michail 3 succession Mubarak had pledged to stress continuity in foreign policy and improve Egyptians Economic condition. His fast act as the seating President was to release politicians who were jailed under the Retired president Sadat. He also maintained strong ties to the United States of America; although he kept a distance from Israel he maintained a good relationship with Arab countries. In the year 1987 majority of Arab states had restored their diplomatic ties with Egypt. According to the New York Times (2011), “Attacks in recent days suggest that provocateurs are trying to take advantage of the political turmoil in Cairo to spread unrest in Sinai”. This was then followed by Egypt being admitted to the Arab league in the year 1989 and headquarters’ moved to Cairo. The government of Egypt of then not only did it move away from state-controlled enterprises but also curbed some of the excesses of businessmen and speculators who operated under Sadat. There was major reform at Mubarak Rise to power. Evils of Corruption were exposed and halted. He streamlined political party’s policies and freedom of the press that saw rise of new political parties and Press freedom however he maintained the state of emergency imposed by Sadat in the year 1981 preventing Islamic groups from gaining power. The Government was not able to curb the Islamic groups as they were able to maintain their traditional Islamic social network as well as deliver services to poor people who included Medical, Education and social benefit needs (BBC). As a result of the Government laxities there was continued gap between the majorities poor Egyptians and the powerful rich minority in the Year 1990 when Kuwait
Loizos Michail 4 was invaded by the Iraq government. President Mubarak was in support of the United States led allied coalition that was formed to reverse the occupation. This support was widely criticized by Egypt’s intellectuals as its citizens sympathized with the Iraqis. Violent actions to overthrow the Mubarak government by the radical Isramist groups went throughout the 1990s (New York Times, 12). In 1995 this members barely tried to assassinate President Mubarak as they killed a number of people including a leading secularist writer, secular-minded politicians, Copts, and foreign tourists. In response to this the government executed and imprisoned the radicals. Later in the 1990s reforms in Egypt economy improved Egypt’s per capita income although the peace policy between Egypt and Israel to the U.S still remained unpopular It was on this fateful day of January 25 2011 on a Tuesday where an uprising started in the country of Egypt (New York Times, 12). Demonstrations in the capital of Egypt Cairo led to killing of at least three people. These leads to thousands of protesters join Anti-government rallies demanding immediate step down of the president Hosni Mubarak and his government. The recent uprising in other parts of Arab countries like Tunisia where president Zain had to step down under severe public pressure greatly inspired this action upon the Egyptian president. Before the uprising in Egypt there was calmness and the anti-government protest were not very common where presidents like Jamal Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak have been at the helm ruling with an iron fist. The government was characterized by ruthless leaders who suppressed and kind of protest, abused human
Loizos Michail 5 rights and civil liberties using the brutal force of intelligent network of the government. This situation had prevailed for many decades in Egypt. Evils of poverty, corruption, nepotism illiteracy and injustices were the order of the day in Egypt. Egypt which happens to be one of the populous countries in the Arab world was in angry protest for a period of 18 days after which the revolution led to Mubarak resignation on the February 11 after he lost to the military and the united state of America. Mubarak heavy-handed rule came to an end after 30 years of power. This was a milestone to the country of Egypt as the military stepped forward and quickly suspended unpopular provisions of the constitution while at the same time cracking down the continuing demonstrations. In the month of March 2011 the constitution of Egypt was amended to pave way for elections. The referendum drew overwhelming support from the votes a demonstration of willingness by the people to elect their own president after having the powers from the amended constitution provisions. A wake up call was brought about by the uprising that saw changes in the social economic and political arena of the country. The women who suffered from the barbaric treatment from the country men were the first to experience a new dispensation. Ninety six percent of the women between 15 and 49 among the Muslims and Christians have undergone the female genital mutilation this is according to United Nations. Egypt as example of Muslim country shows that this barbarism is a highly valued and well-respected practice. Egyptian laws has mitigating exceptions to punishing murder and allow judges to reduce sentences for men who have killed their wives in what is as a result of ‘crime of passion’
Loizos Michail 6 A courageous feminist and socialist Nawal El-Saadawi has written works on Oppression of Women in the Near East. In her book classic, the Hidden Face of Eve (1980), she speaks of the entrenched obsession with honor says: “Arab society still considers that the fine membrane which covers the aperture of the external genital organs is the most cherished and most important part of a girl’s body, and is much more valuable than one of her eyes, or an arm, or a lower limb. An Arab family does not grieve as much at the loss of a girl’s eye as it does if she happens to lose her virginity. In fact if the girl lost her life, it would be considered less of a catastrophe than if she lost her hymen”. Egyptian women form a crucial part of the working class despite their challenged they pray a leading role in the strikes over the last decade under the rule of Mubarak 8. A case in point is in the textile industry a most dramatic scene happened in December 2006 textile strike in Mahalla al-Kobra. An estimate of 20,000 workers led by women went out on strike as men continued to work. Protesting outside the plant they chanted “Where are the men? Here are the women!” They we joined by men marking one of the biggest strikes Egypt had seen in years. This strikes that happened was a result of the people reaction to ruthless government structures that were harsh towards them. Therefore the major upraising that saw the overturning of the ruling power was necessitated by a number of reasons. The Mass celebrations experiences on the street of Cairo’s Tahrir (Liberation) Square by the millions of people from all walks of life in other cities throughout Egypt was a clear demonstration of a nation rebirth from the era that was manifested by the venal and corrupt dictatorship that riled under the
Loizos Michail 7 emergency law, imprisoning and disappearing of anti-government protesters in Egypt’s vast torture chambers. The Egypt uprising was spearheaded by several political groups and Islamic grouping .Some of the below Actors were in the President Mubarak regime and could become his successors to bring major reforms required in Egypt to foster sustainable democratic development.
Causes of Egypt revolution Before the uprising in Egypt there was calmness and the anti-government protest were not very common where presidents like Jamal Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak have been at the helm ruling with an iron fist. The government was characterized by ruthless leaders who suppressed and kind of protest, abused human rights and civil liberties using the brutal force of intelligent network of the government. According to the telegraph (2011), the Protests in Egypt are being driven by the April 6 youth movement, a group on Facebook that has attracted mainly young and educated members opposed to Mr Mubarak. The group has about 70,000 members and uses social networking sites to orchestrate protests and report on their activities. The documents released by WikiLeaks reveal US Embassy officials were in regular contact with the activist throughout 2008 and 2009, considering him one of their most reliable sources for information about human rights abuses (1).
Loizos Michail 8 Inheritance of power This was the utmost cause of the revolutions in Egypt. Hosni Mubarak is deemed to have ruled Egypt for more than three decades and still did not accept to decent form power. The Egyptian people were in the dire need to have a democratic country. The grooming of Gamar Mubarak, the last of Mubarak two sons sparked a lot of fury from the Egyptians stirring the urge to get a leadership that was not influenced bu inheritance but democratic. The Electoral system in Egypt had being a question of discussion on many occasions. Proposals to design an end run in the electoral system had received a lot of support from politicians, political movers and political analysts but Mubarak was not listening. Political analysts stated that unlike the inheritance plan, an informed electoral system would result to the election of candidates getting preference from the majority of the voters. In using the democratic electoral system, chances are very low that a regional third party candidate will be able to do mischief. A democratic Electoral system creates an even balance between the small provinces and the large provinces. This is not the case with the inheritance of power.
The emergency law The 21st century had seeing lot of centralization activities in Egypt including the emergency law which was enacted in 1967. This period is considered as the middle age era in Egypt. Under this new law, police powers were increased, constitutional rights were not applied and legalization of
Loizos Michail 9 censorship in law was experienced. For a period of not less than 30 years, Egypt was sparked by invasions, inter-border conflicts, brigandage, religious wars, guerrilla wars, and dynastic struggles. Later on, the newly found feudal order led to the decentralization of all social, political, military functions and the political functions in Egypt which resulted to the Uprisings.
Demographic and economic challenges After the world wide recession, the economic crunch still remained to be felt in Egypt and other Islamic countries. The population of Egypt is estimated to be 80 million people most of whom were unemployed and were economically affected. The leadership in Egypt had raised lot of controversial thoughts in issues relating to the economy since the mid 1990s. The argument was on whether the leadership would diverge or converge income in the country. The Egyptian economy declined during Mubarak’s rule because the nation resorted to thriving while within protective walls. The Mubarak rule degraded universalism and capitalism. Capitalism leads to embracing and maintaining peace as long as economic freedom is involved. It also entails integration of economies and societies which is enabled by easy movement of “information, ideas, technologies, goods and services, capital, finance and people�.
Development in technology Technological innovation is one of the factors that is considered to have enhanced the uprisings through the speeding up of intercontinental communication and
Loizos Michail 10 transportation of information. Political decisions within the country were not internal anymore but a matter of international knowledge. The uprisings in Egypt were supported by many people within outside the country. This is blamed jn the development of technology in the country.
Corruption among government officials Disparity between wealth allocation in relation to effective and efficient allocation of resources are also considered to have led to minimized wastage as a result of accruing the resources for certain productive purpose. Consequently this resulted to lower output, decreased employment opportunities, increased prices and improved living standards as a result of in-efficient allocation of resources.
Withdrawal from the support of the United States The United States was considered to be a strong supporter of the Mubarak's regime. However after few uprisings across the world including that of Tunisia, the US withdrew its support.
Difference in religious views. America changed from being a supporting country to call for reforms. In an interview with the Cable News Network, CNN, Cameron (2011) said that: “I think what we need is reform in Egypt. I mean, we support reform and progress in the greater strengthening of the democracy and civil rights and the rule of law.� The US government has previously been a supporter
Loizos Michail 11 of Mr Mubarak’s regime. But the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mr Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East. In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year (1). The 21st century in Egypt is noted through the collapse of the Mubarak rule. This period was marked by a lot of explorations in terms of machinery and scientific. The difference between Muslim and Catholicism was by far the largest. Its beliefs and practices rallied around the traditional authority of the papacy as the only guide of Christians. After more than a decade of controversy and persecution, the struggle among the churches ended in a deadlock. As a result, the survival of Protestantism was guaranteed as a third branch of Christianity alongside Catholicism and Orthodoxy. This marked the greatest single change in western religion since the rise of Christianity itself. As the rows between the churches subsided, the idea of Christian freedom applying to this world and the next got a wider audience and eventually came to influence the structure of states and societies. The Age of science and Enlightenment brought about innumerable new concepts to Egyptian society. These principles greatly pervaded the modern society of today. A new form of government hence began to substitute dictatorship across the country making the Mubarak Monarchy become hesitant to give up its power.
Loizos Michail 12 Key political figures in the uprising
Omar Suleiman
Mohammed ElBaradei
Amr Moussa
Mohammed Tantawi
Sami Enan
Muslim Brotherhood
Below are brief descriptions of the parties and groups who are the political figures of Egypt.
Omar Suleiman Omar Suleiman is a 74 year old Man; he was long considered the second most powerful figure in Mubarak’s regime and a possible contender to succeed him. Omar is He is esteemed for his tactical thinking and has been the key figure in many of Egypt’s recent negotiations, particularly with Israel11. He also has a close relationship the United States. He has a strong military career experience that dates back to the year 1954 and was involved in war against the Israel in the year 1967 and 1972; he has a substantial support from the army ” (Haaretz, 3). He played a big role to suppress radical Islamic uprising in the Mubarak government like the Jihad in the year 1990s that I mention earlier who were threatening the state. He was a minister in the same government as from 1993 to 2011 as the head of General intelligence Directorate or Mukhabarat. He is said to be deeply hostile and
Loizos Michail 13 against to the radical group of Muslim Brotherhood, who he once described as "liars who only understand force" (Guardian, 4). His support in Army circles was his most valuable card in attempts to hold on to power but his recent past as the head of the intelligence service distanced him from military circles and, as a close ally of Mubarak, he was a symbol of continuity rather than change11. Mohammed ElBaradei Mohammed ElBaradei is 68 years old, winner of the Nobel peace prize and a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. He has credibility in the Arab world for being perceived to stand up to US President George W Bush on the issue of weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the US-led invasion of Iraq. When he first returned to Egypt in February 2010, maybe as many as a thousand Egyptians defied official warnings and turned out to welcome him home at Cairo airport and to ask him to run for president in 2011. He founded the National Association for Change, an umbrella group of the opposition, with some participation from the Muslim Brotherhood. The coordinator of the National Association for Change is Mustafa AlNaggar. The 2010 return did not transform the political scene in Egypt, however. ElBaradei complained of the “culture of fear” in Egypt and said that he had difficulty raising funds, establishing a headquarters or holding public meetings (Steven, 28) Mr ElBaradei returned again to Egypt on 27 January 2011 and immediately called for change. As he was leaving Vienna, he said: “If [people] want me to lead the transition, I will not let them down.” On arriving in Cairo he said:”I continue to call on the regime to understand
Loizos Michail 14 that they better listen and listen quickly, not use violence and understand that change has to come. There's no other option’’. Since his return to Egypt, he has remained with the protesters and has presented himself for a leadership role in any opposition negotiations with the Army. However, Mr ElBaradei does not have a clear constituency in Egyptian society and such support as he has appears to come from minority middle-class anti-regime circles. He is also inexperienced in politics and may not fully understand the concerns of Egyptians, having lived outside the country for so long. Analysts doubt whether he will have sufficient popular appeal to be anything more than a transitional figure. Some argue that his long absence in Vienna is an advantage, because it makes it difficult for the regime to accuse him of any crimes (other potential presidential rivals have ended up in jail, with doubtful convictions for political offences). Amr Moussa Amr Moussa (74) is a former Egyptian foreign minister. Since 2001 he has been the secretary general of the Arab League. He is very popular and well-known with the Egyptian public, and he has involved himself in the uprising. He may play some role in the transitional arrangements. The question is whether the protesters and the opposition would accept him as a convincing replacement for Mubarak. Mohammed Tantawi Mohammed Tantawi is an old ally of Mubarak’s (to the extent that he is sometimes called Mubarak’s “poodle”) and was defence minister in the Mubarak government for more than 20 years. His position as chairman of the Supreme Military
Loizos Michail 15 Command Council means that he is technically the country’s new leader. However, it is reported that his abilities are not rated highly and, with his reputation as a Mubarak loyalist, he is unlikely to be more than a figurehead, with no plans to run for the presidency. Sami Enan Sami Enan (62) is the chief of staff of Egypt’s military and sits on the Supreme Military Command Council. When the protests started he was in Washington for a week of meetings with US military officers (Samuel, 35). Stories circulated as early as 1 February that he could be Mubarak’s successor, when a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood said that he was not known by the people for corruption and a liberal reformer with good ties in Washington.30 It was Lt General Enan who announced on television early in the protests that the army would not fire on the people. Muslim Brotherhood (MB) The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Hasan al Banna. Hasan al Banna taught the problems of Egypt and other Muslim societies can only be solved by returning society the simple, pure life of the days of the Prophet. This purification starts with removing the influence of foreigners. The Brotherhood organized in terms of secret cells much like what develops as a resistance movement to a foreign occupation. It functions like a religious military movement. The government in 1928 tried to prohibit students from participating in any political movement. In that year it formulated a new constitution to replace the 1922 constitution.
Loizos Michail 16 This opposition group has the largest support in Egypt. It is officially banned, but in practice it is tolerated, and its policy has traditionally been not to provoke the Mubarak regime excessively. Some speculate that Mubarak wants the Brotherhood to be the most visible opposition party to show that the alternative to his rule is Islamism. At the same time, the Mubarak regime has suppressed and weakened all opposition parties so that there is no clear challenger to his rule (UNDP, 24). The MB, sometimes known by its Arabic name the Ikhwan, is according to some commentators, an ageing organization. Its reaction to the oppression of the Mubarak regime has led to divergence between the younger members and the older leadership. The MB has sometimes participated indirectly in elections and, after the 2005 election; it held some 20% of seats in the parliament, held through nominal independents. In the last few years, the regime cracked down on the MB, arresting hundreds (BBC, 26). After the first round of the 2010 election was marked by violence and fraud, the Brotherhood withdrew from the second round. The MB has adapted its political theory, partly in response to the Iranian Revolution, to accept the notion of some involvement of clerics in the politics in an Islamic state. In a 2007 policy document, the MB proposed a council of clerics that would veto any legislation put forward by the executive or legislature that contravened sharia law. This would quite closely reflect Iran’s Guardian Council. In response to the present crisis, however, the Brotherhood has re-stated opposition to an Islamic state. Among the reforms and policies expected from the former regime and the above actors play part .this reforms affect the western world as well as the relationship of Egypt and other neighboring countries e.g Iran and Israel they include:
Loizos Michail 17 Israel peace treaty Israel peace treaty actors involved are Muslim Brotherhood, the Western governments remain focused on the question as to whether they would withdraw from the 1979 peace treaty with Israel (Associated press, 4). Some spokesmen for the Brotherhood have indicated that they would, while others have said that they could accept the existence of Israel. While the Brotherhood has called for diplomatic relations with Israel to be ended, it has not officially called for war. The present policy is that the treaty would be put to a referendum. On the other hand, the Jerusalem Post carried a story originating in a Hebrew-language newspaper which reported on 1 February that Muhammed Ghannem, a leading member of the Brotherhood and its representative in the UK, had told an Iranian news service that war was possible: “The people should be prepared for war against Israel”. Analysts doubt whether any Brotherhood-influenced government would make radical changes to the present policy of “cold peace” with Israel, pointing out that the Egyptian MB is a very pragmatic organization (Associated press, 4). Israel’s military superiority to Egypt is generally accepted and would be a disincentive to military confrontation between the two countries. Bruce Rutherford, in an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, described the breaking of diplomatic relations with Israel by a new government as “very unlikely” (Guardian, 21). On 9 February the Brotherhood released a press statement in which the Israel issue was addressed
Loizos Michail 18 Gaza Hamas, the group that controls the Gaza Strip, is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, but is generally seen as more radical than the parent organization in Egypt. President Mubarak was very hostile to Hamas, seeing the organization as a threat to stability in Egypt as well as among the Palestinians (Jeremy, 24). During the Israeli attack on Gaza, Operation Cast Lead over the winter of 2008-2009, Mubarak resisted calls for Egypt to support Hamas against the Israeli attack. He provided some humanitarian assistance, but generally stayed close to the Israeli position throughout the conflict, earning himself unpopularity at home (Jeremy, 46). A Muslim Brotherhood-influenced government (or any other democratic Egyptian government) would likely take a more friendly approach to Hamas.
Iran Iran has reacted with official enthusiasm for the Egyptian uprising, and has said that a new, Islamic Middle East is under construction. However, Iran and Egypt are very different: Iranians are mostly Persian Shiites whereas Egyptians are mainly Arab Sunnis. The Muslim Brotherhood is much older than the Iranian revolution and many in the Brotherhood feel that they have nothing to learn from Iran. On expert says that the Brotherhood will see things differently: I believe the Muslim Brotherhood thinks that it has influence over Iran, not the other way round. In terms of ideology it is very selfconfident. Its members think it was the Muslim Brotherhood which influenced Iranian clerics to carry out the [Iranian] revolution. Ideologically the Muslim Brotherhood is not influenced by Iran. On 11 January it was reported that Iran had blocked the BBC
Loizos Michail 19 Persian television. British newspapers interpreted this as a move to prevent the service’s coverage of the Egyptian crisis (Samual, 56). Nevertheless, what many scholars are proposing is the fact that Iran is currently influencing Egypt in terms of politics and foreign affairs. Thus, Egypt has a major bet to win. Shooting down in flames the suspicions presenting the country as an obeisant and executive organ of the Iranian foreign policy. Therefore, if Egypt doesn’t want to be accused for a failed revolution, shall turn any reform at the direction of the mere democratic development of the state and not at the direction of serving the interests and agenda’s of other states.
Egypt revolt How such a regime crash down that fast does is a question that many are asking. One of the reason of this crash after the uprising could be dated back to the former President of Egypt in the years (1956 – 1970) Gamal Abdel Nasser who allied the country with the Soviet Union and imposed a policy of economic nationalism and statesmanship, and created huge loss-producing state enterprises and a bloated bureaucracy. Other reasons are Egypt’s geography, geology, economy, history, and geopolitical position, each of which has stifled the generation of an open political and economic system and strengthened the country’s static and authoritarian political system by providing revenue directly to the rulers, without requiring the consent of a productive population (Stephen, 43). Since the rulers don’t rely mainly on taxes, they have little reason to promote good governance or to be accountable to the people.
Loizos Michail 20 Sources of Revenue
Geography: The Suez Canal provides a direct passage between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. As an artificial sea passage between Europe and Asia, the Canal is of major importance because it avoids the long ship passage around Africa. The Suez Canal was nationalized by Nasser in 1956. Every day nearly 40 vessels traverse the Canal, producing some $3.3 billion per year in income to the state.
Geology: The land of Egypt is blessed – or cursed – with oil reserves that provide foreign exchange earnings estimated at 1.2 billion dollars per year. The oil industry was nationalized in 1962 and provides rents to the state and the bureaucracy that it has spawned.
Economy: A rigidly controlled labor market has created huge unemployment and forced many Egyptians abroad in search of work. Every year, Egyptians working in North America, Europe, and the Gulf countries send an estimated $4.3 billion per year to their families, providing an external source of income to the country without creating wealth at home (Wikileaks, 2).
Loizos Michail 21 History: Egypt’s inherited wealth of tourist sites draws some five million foreign tourists per year from the whole world. The sites are state owned and managed and accordingly poorly maintained, but because there are no close substitutes for seeing the Sphinx or the Pyramids the state receives billions of dollars in foreign exchange earnings (some $5 billion in 2005).
Geopolitics: Egypt is a central hub in the chaotic politics of the Middle East, as neighbor to Libya, Sudan, Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia (from which it is separated by the Sinai desert and the Red Sea). Apparently without consulting “the Egyptian street” (and the Arab street in general), the government of Egypt was the first Arab government to sign a peace treaty with Israel (the Camp David accords of 1979). In return for being at peace, every year since 1980, the United States has given the Egyptian government over $2.1 billion, including $1.3 in military aid. Egypt’s leaders have occupied an increasingly difficult position, as they are seen as betraying the Arab nationalist ideals of the Nasser and abandoning the cause of the Palestinians. All those “rents” were captured by the ruling coalition, which until earlier this month were increasingly ruled over by President Mubarak’s son Gamal. Those rents have supported a vast system of patronage through which Egyptian society has been controlled (Guardian, 23). The now-defunct National Democratic Party and the state organs it dominated controlled almost all of the media, the unions, the secret services, and the political police. As a result, “democracy” was emptied of its meaning.
Loizos Michail 22 A “rent-seeking” political system that cemented its hold on society put Egypt in a perpetual pre-revolutionary situation and created a powerful, but quite brittle, security situation. The demographics and economics of Egypt also have contributed to the brittleness of the situation (Associated press, 12). Egypt’s statistic, controlled economic system generates few opportunities to create wealth, in contrast to receiving rents through state employment. Unemployment is probably over thirty percent, and with some 600,000 young people entering the job market each year, the situation has been worsening. Moreover, Egypt’s population is both rapidly growing, with some 26 million Egyptians under the age of 15, and poor, with 44 percent living on less than $2 per day.
Many questions
now remain on the future of the Egyptian people under the power of Egyptian army. General Samah Seif El Yazal, a former as military personnel in Egypt was recorded saying that: “There are two directions the Higher Military Council can go. The first is to ask the existing government to run the country for a transitional period of perhaps a year. The other option is for the military to run the country by committee. We are very anxious to hear from them about what they intend to do.” Two best-organized forces who can succeed have been the armed forces and Muslim brotherhood .The latter, however, has not been able to play a leading role, largely because of the earlier hesitations of its senior leadership. The leaders hesitated at least for two reasons. One is their aversion to and suspicion of the secular forces.
Loizos Michail 23 The other is their initial pessimistic estimate of the level of anger and energy of the masses, and their staying power It is important to understand that this popular revolt is not about Islam – let alone an Islamic jihad. It is clearly about political freedom and basic economic needs. What is next after apprising is a question many are asking with the departure of Mubarak, The military role shows that Mubarak's departure can't all be attributed to people power. The military's generally neutral stance to the protesters had been a de facto tilt in their direction, and the friendly attitude of soldiers made the siege of the government symbol much easier (Mehdi, 24)
Al- Sayed Mustafa, a university of Cairo political science professor, speaking shortly before Mubarak resigned, said: “There are already some divisions among the demonstrators. Some are saying, ‘Let us give the promise of reform a chance and trust the armed forces, who say they will guarantee reform.’ Others are saying, ‘No trust is left.’ If the process of reform doesn’t proceed positively and quickly, this could become very dangerous.”
Trust in the military to ensure democratic transition President Obama and reformers like ElBaradei had been hoping for a managed transition in Egypt, fearful that Mubarak’s precipitous departure could lead to political chaos and the potential for a full military takeover. That’s what happened today, but many in Egypt trust that the military will play a caretaker role and ensure a democratic
Loizos Michail 24 transition. Everyone will soon find out if that trust is well placed (Maha, 25). The United States has been in a difficult spot, with its close ties to Mubarak, its reliance on Egypt to advance regional goals like Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and its stated desire for democratic reform. At the moment, Egypt’s revolution looks like it’s at the end of the beginning, to borrow from Churchill Winston. What comes next will depend on whether the demonstrators can continue to rally masses to their side and if men like Suleiman are willing to use force to avoid being swept away.
There could be three dangers for the Egyptian revolution:
Western influence,
US strategic repression,
Ineffectual anointed leaders, and corrosive dissent American strategic objectives are aimed at ultimately repressing and co-opting
the organic revolutionary uprisings in the Arab world. For the past six years or so, America has been developing and starting to implement a strategy to manage to ‘Arab Awakening’ by promoting “democratization” in a process of “evolution, not revolution.” However, the evolution was evidently not fast enough for the people living under the Arab regimes, and revolution is in the air. America, naturally, is desperately attempting to manage the situation and repress a true revolution from spreading across the region, instead promoting an “orderly transition” as Hillary Clinton and President Obama have stressed (ILO, 65). Thus, America has been extensively involved in the processes of organizing and establishing
Loizos Michail 25 “transitional governments” or “unity governments.” If the revolution took its own course, and sought true change, populist democracy and ultimate freedom, it would ultimately be forced to challenge the role and influence of America and the West in the region. As such, military “aid” would need to end (a prospect the domestic militaries are not willing to accept), American influence over and contact with civil society and opposition groups would need to be openly challenged and discussed, the IMF and World Bank would need to be kicked out, international debts would need to be declared “odious” and canceled, and the people would have to control their own country and become active, engaged and informed citizens. The true revolution will have to be not simply political, but economic, social, cultural, psychological, intellectual and ultimately, global. The protesters must challenge not simply their despotic governments, but must ultimately remove American and Western control over their nations (Hamza, 79). They must also be very cautious of opposition groups and proposed leaders who are thrust to the front lines and into the government, as they are likely co-opted. The true new leaders should come from the people, and should earn their leadership, not simply be crowned as ‘leaders.’ The best possible short-to-medium-term scenario would be to see the emergence of Arab populist democracies, reflecting the trend seen across Latin America (although, not necessarily imposing the same ideologies). The trouble with this scenario is that it is also the most unlikely. If there is one thing that
American power despises, it is populist democracy (BBC,62). Since the
beginnings of the Cold War until present day, America has actively overthrown,
Loizos Michail 26 orchestrated coups, imposed dictatorships, crushed, invaded and occupied, bombed and destabilized or implemented “democratic regime change” in populist democracies. Democratic governments that are accountable to the people and seek to help the poor and oppressed make themselves quick enemies of American power. Over the past 60 years, America has repressed or supported the repression of democracies, liberation struggles and attempts at autonomy all over the world: Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954, Haiti in 1959, the Congo in 1960, Ecuador in 1961, Algeria, Peru, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Chile, Argentina, Afghanistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Palestine, Iraq, Venezuela, Lebanon, Yemen and on and on and on. The situation is a dangerous and difficult one for the protesters, just as the struggle for freedom and democracy is and has always been. There is a large constituency which have an interest in preventing the emergence of a populist democracy, including many of the pro-democracy organizations and opposition leaders themselves, the great nations of the world – East and West, the World Bank and IMF, international corporations and banks, neighboring Arab regimes, Israel, and of course, America (Guardian, 2) It is a monumental challenge, but it would be a great disservice to cast aside the protests as controlled and totally co-opted. If that were the case, they would have ceased with the formation of transition and unity governments, which of course they have not (guardian, 12). While the outcome is ultimately unknown, what is clear is that a spark has been lit in the Arab world as the ‘Global Political Awakening’ marches on, and this will be a very difficult flame to control.
Loizos Michail 27 Conclusion Promoting democratic reforms in Egypt and throughout the Arab world is critical under any circumstances and no effort should be spared by the indigenous people-in partnership with their governments whenever possible-to bring about political reforms consistent with their aspirations. Foreign governments and human rights organizations can and should provide assistance only as requested, bearing in mind three critical requirements to lasting reforms. Since the governance and traditions of each Arab state differ, there is no single template of political reforms applicable to all. Rapid reforms without transitional periods to allow for the development of civil society and secular political parties could lead to further destabilization. Finally, political reforms are not sustainable-and might even backfire unless they are concurrently accompanied by substantial economic development programs that can provide immediate benefits (Reuters, 12). But as it has being witnessed, change is coming. The guardian, (2011), states that: The turbulent events of the last 10 days have thrust the spy chief into unaccustomed limelight – and the challenge of a lifetime of dedicated service. Suleiman is one of a rare group of Egyptian officials who hold both a military rank (lieutenant general) and a civilian office as a minister. Like other members of the military top brass, he is profoundly hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood, who he has described as "liars who only understand force". But the political maneuvering to manage the crisis will almost certainly involve dealing with them as the largest opposition group in the country. "Suleiman never had a role in national politics before,"
Loizos Michail 28 warns a former colleague, "though he would have been consulted.�The question now is how he will manage in this new situation."(2). The new era in Egypt, as well as in other countries of the Middle East is ahead of us. The first step has been taken and the regime that convicted the country into a deadlock for decades has been deported. Now the people of Egypt are confronting their own fate. Either, the resurrection of the greatness of Egypt or the subjection to the plotting of their neighboring powers. What will their choice be, is something that we will soon discover.
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