The China-India Relations

The China-India Relations: Protracted Conflict or Growing Cooperation?

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- AKM Khairul Islam 2

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ost-colonial India and Communist China faced similar types of problems such as extreme poverty, unemployment, and lack of modernization of their economies. Both countries adopted state-led economic development strategies (communism in case of China, and socialism in case of India) to improve their economic conditions. However, despite some initial success, state-led development strategies failed to solve their economic problems. China abandoned its state-led economic growth strategy in the late 1970s and India in early 1990’s. Since their market and outward-oriented and western technology driven economic reforms, both countries have been growing very rapidly. Simultaneous and high economic growth of these two countries has been providing enough resources to their state leaders to modernize their military and pursue strategic interests beyond East and South Asia.

Now both China and India are growing powers in Asia.

Future Asian security, prosperity, and peace will depend on the relationship between India and China. The questions are: what are the patters and trends in Sino-Indian relations?

Sino-Indian Relations: Historical Legacies and Current Trends Both India and China were a part of great ancient civilizations in the history of the human race. Due to geographical proximity, both countries have common cultural and historical legacies. There is plenty of evidence of continuous trade and exchange of ideas through the centuries without either political cooperation or conflict.

There is little historical evidence of intense political interactions between them due to various reasons: first, both countries were self-sufficient for their existence; second, the geographical barrier imposed by the Himalayas prevented mass migration, territorial occupation and huge trade; third, the epicenters of both of the civilizations were too far from each other that discouraged direct interactions.

The epicenter of China’s civilization was east of today’s Great Wall near Beijing, and India’s was primarily centered in the Indo-Gangetic plain, too far from China’s civilization.

After 1962 war, the relationship between the two countries was bitter until 1976 despite sporadic efforts to fix the relations. Both Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Chinese Prime Minister Zhoi Enlai moved to begin normalizing relations. Due to their efforts, diplomatic relationship was finally reinstalled in 1976 after a gap of 15 years. Sino-India relations started to improve further after the change of Chinese leadership, and notably after the death of Mao in 1976.

Deng Xiaoping, new Chinese leader initiated an ambitious market-led economic reform and modernization policy for China in 1978. Deng realized that China needed stable and peaceful relations with other countries for its economic development. He abandoned ideology-based foreign policy and aimed to improve relations with the two super powers and tried to strike a cordial relationship with its neighboring countries. As part of his foreign policy, Deng Xiaoping initiated to improve China’s relation with India.

Similarly, Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai also emphasized the normalization of relations with China. As part of normalization of relations, he sent his Foreign Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to China in February 1979 to carry forward the normalization of relations. During Vajpayee’s visit to China, Deng Xiaoping remarked that “China and India should for the moment put dividing issues on side and do some actual work to improve climate to go about the problem. Neither country poses a threat to the other. How can India and China not be friends?” Mrs. Indira Gandhi came to power in 1980 after resignation of Morarji Desai. She also emphasized peaceful Sino-India relations for peace and stability in Asia. In 1981, border talk started between the two countries. However, no major breakthrough had been achieved despite several rounds of ministerial level talks held between the two countries from 1976 and 1988. Former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visited China from 19 to 23 December1988, which is considered ‘path-breaking’ for Sino-Indian relations.

During this visit, India accepted China’s proposal that bilateral relations could be improved on the basis of Panch Shila and expanded before the solution of border disputes.

1 This paper is an abridged version of the original paper prepared by AKM Khairul Islam for the Department of Political Science, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. An expanded version of the paper is available at http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/2/8/1/6/7/p281671_index.html#citation 2 AKM Khairul Islam is a PhD candidate with the Department of Political Science, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale.

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After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of Cold War in 1991, Sino-Indian cooperation gained further momentum. After the fall of the Soviet Union, India lost its Cold War trusted friend and ally. Soviet disintegration had some impact on India: first, it removed major barrier for better Sino-Indian relations; second, India lost 20 percent of its export market due to economic decline of the Soviet Union that forced India to improved its relations with other neighboring countries including China; third, in the emerging uni-polar system, both China and India were worried about enormous U.S. military power. Both needed to cooperate with each other to counterbalance omnipotent U.S power in Asia. The process of normalization of SinoIndian relations has evolved through three ways. First, summit meeting between the heads of state and government; regular visits of high ranking military and civilian officials, intellectuals and business leaders; third, steady and gradual processes of confidence building measures (CBMs) through different agreements and treaties.

From the beginning of the 1990s, both countries concentrated on confidence building measures such as troop reductions in the borders, regular meetings of military commanders and political leaders, and intense bilateral talks to solve border disputes. Border trade started once again in 1992 for the first time after 1962 border war, and consulate offices opened in Mumbai in India and Shanghai in China (Price & House, 2007). Sino-India relations have been developing gradually and smoothly and reaching toward maturity. China and India have common interests in many issue areas. In the last few years, bilateral relationship between the two countries has improved greatly; high level visits have continued, border talks have achieved positive progress, trade has increased manifold, exchanges and cooperation in the field of science, technology, education have improved, and mutual trust in security and military areas also enhanced. Although there have been some twists and turns, still Post-Cold War bilateral relations between the two countries on the whole are stable and peaceful.

Conclusion Although Sino-Indian relations have improved a lot in recent years, still both countries consider each other as potential competitor and future strategic rival. There is no doubt that past history and especially mutual distrust due to 1962 Sino-Indian war, security complications and societal pressure will play a key role in shaping the relationship.

Similarly, growing economic interdependence, continuous political interactions, and mutuality of interests will also play a key role in shaping future relationship.

Now economic development is the number one priority for both China and India. Both countries need peaceful political and strategic atmosphere for their future economic growth. One of the major driving forces in recent Sino-

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Indian relations is trade, which is growing very rapidly in recent years. Trade relations between the two countries stopped entirely after the 1962 border war, and it was not restarted until 1976. However, it was very insignificant in the 1980s and started to grow very rapidly since the very beginning of the 1990s. Now China is India’s second largest trading partner after the United States, and probably will be the largest trading partners within few years. According to Chinese official sources, trade between the two countries will reach US $70 billion in 2010. There is no doubt that India’s and China’s economies are competitor in many respects. However, in the last decade, Sino-India trade has increased twelve-fold that indicates both economies are complementary as well as supplementary. Major strengths of Chinese economy are manufacturing, but India’s comparative advantages are on knowledge-based service sector. Opportunities of fruitful cooperation are possible in many sectors such as manufacturing, service, tourism and investment. China and India have some common economic interests. They can gain a lot by trading with one another and investing in each other economies. Similarly, they can achieve a lot by cooperation in different international and regional economic forums. However, the robust economic relations depend on cordial political relationship and trust.

During his visit in India in 2006, Chinese President points out that “[t]he development of India and China are complementary to each other, not repulsive to each other.

China honestly welcomes India’s development, supports India in playing a greater role in international affairs, and sincerely wishes India continues new achievement in the future”. He further points out that the purpose of his visit in India “is to deepen friendship, increase mutual trust, expand cooperation, and plan for the future”. China and India are also facing some common problems such as energy security and sea lane security that require collective strategy.

According to the US Department of Energy, China’s oil consumption will rise 156 per cent and India’s oil consumption will rise 152 percent by 2025. Due to stagnant domestic production growth, both countries will become more dependent on imported oil. As a result, they will become more vulnerable to irregularities of supply and price volatility of oil and other energies. Both China and India are late comers in global oil system. They are facing fierce competition from much larger, resourceful and huge western oil companies. Cooperation between Indian and Chinese oil firms is essential. Before 2002, India and China fiercely competed for global and oil and gas fields acquisition. However, the realized that their fierce competition will harm instead of benefit them. Energy cooperation between India and China started in 2002, when India’s Oil and Natural Gas Company (ONGC) purchased 25 per cent share of Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Field operated

by China National Petroleum Cooperation (CNPC). After that, their cooperation in energy sector has increased manifold and that is beneficial for both countries. Similarly, they need collective action in many other areas.

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A bilateral consensus has already emerged that both countries will avoid any major conflict in the future.

However, for a cordial and harmonious relation, the leadership of both countries needs to address a number of issues, such as border disputes, U.S. factor in Sino-Indian relations and security dilemma, having potentials for causing damage to the ties of these two countries. D.S. Rajan points out that “the development of Sino-Indian relations in the last two and half decades has been a logical consequence of the strategic thought process that has been evolving gradually for some time in both countries.”

Amardeep Athwal argues that “There is no reason to expect that Sino-Indian relations will once again spiral downward given the positive momentum generated in recent years.

Both India and China set out on the path of creating dependable expectations of peaceful change and as long as the political will remains, Sino-Indian relations will

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continue to progress.” Athwal further points out that “China and India have a lot more to lose from competing with one another than from cooperating to pursue mutual gains. In this way the world is no longer the same one that existed when China and India fought their border in 1962.

Both China and India are facing pressures to integrate into the US-led international economy and in their bilateral relations are realizing that there is much to gain from cooperation within this international environment.” Now both countries foreign policies are based on pragmatic and rational calculations instead of ideological orientations.

Both realized that their national interests are compatible despite some unresolved problems. Current Sino-India relations indicate future cooperation between the two countries. Definetely Asian’s future will not be the Europe’s past.

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