ICC May-June 2019 by India China Chronicle

An India-China Economic and Cultural Council publication

May-June 2019 â&#x20AC;˘ ` 100

SCO: Cooperation above competition Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd) Pakistan an irritant, China the real challenge - discusses think-tank of defence experts at annual conference

Dr. Pankaj K Jha

Amit Waikar Economic boost through united Indian diaspora

Jayanta Ghosal

BIMSTEC and BCIM Economic Corridor: The Challenge of Compatibility The future of IndiaChina Relations

Capt Kunal N Uniyal India must upgrade maritime strength, Can learn from China experience

Dr. Teshu Singh India-China Relations through the Prism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 2019

Ashok Bhan China-India Plus A new model of cooperation

Maj Gen Pushpendra Singh (retd) China: An enigma wrapped in a riddle

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Vol 6, Issue 4, May-June 2019 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Mohammed Saqib EXECUTIVE EDITOR Rajni Shaleen Chopra EDITORIAL BOARD Mani Shankar Aiyar PS Deodhar Prof Haixiao Song Dilip Cherian Shaodong Wang Amir Ullah Khan EDITORIAL TEAM Irfan Alam Audrey Tso Aishita Shukla DESIGN Manoj Raikwar OWNED, PRINTED AND PUBLISHED BY Mohammed Saqib Registered with the Registrar of Newspapers of India under RNI No: DELENG/2011/43423 PUBLISHED FROM A-82, Zakir Bagh, New Delhi - 110025 ADDRESS FOR ALL CORRESPONDENCE India-China Chronicle B-59 (GF), South Extension - II, New Delhi - 110049 Telefax: 011-46550348 PRINTED AT Thinkink Creation Patparganj Industrial Area, New Delhi Mobile:+91-9818717456 E-mail : thinkink.creation@gmail.com All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited.

All advertising enquiries, comments and feedback are welcome at info@icec-council.org The information contained in this magazine has been reviewed for accuracy and is deemed reliable but is not necessarily complete or guaranteed by the Editor. The views expressed in this digest are solely that of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of India China Economic and Cultural Council (ICEC).

Chinese investments into India see stable, healthy growth

ecurity and strategy analysts continue to peer closely at global geopolitical tensions and trade wars. Meanwhile, Chinese investment into India continues to witness a steady high. According to a news report in Hindu Businessline, China’s venture capitalist investments into the Indian start-up ecosystem have increased five-fold to $5.6 billion in 2018 compared to $3 billion in 2017 and $668 million in 2016. The increased inflow came at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the ambitious Start-up India program that led to a spurt in the number of tech start-ups in the country. The report said that according to data collated by research and analytics platform Tracxn, Chinese venture capitalists have poured in more than half a billion since the beginning of this year. Among the top Chinese investors were Alibaba, Shunwei Capital, Fosun Tencent and Xiaomi. Sectors such as consumers, food-tech, logistics, retail, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and fintech attracted maximum investments thus helping Indian start-ups boost their valuations. Trade analysts believe that since India does not have any trade tension with China, business between the two nations will continue to grow. Apart from investing in Indian start-ups, the Chinese corporate sector is also strengthening its presence in India. Yuho, a 12-year-old Chinese firm which does designing and third-party mobile phone manufacturing, has chosen India to launch its own phone brand. Yuho has invested Rs 100 crore in India so far. The company has a semi knocked-down unit in Gurugram, where it employs over 500 people, with capacity to produce 12 lakh phones a year. The company has announced the setting up of its second plant at Gurugram or Tirupati. Yuho Mobiles is owned by the Chinese firm UCT. The existing set-up in Gurugram and the additional investments made by Yuho at the new facility will be part of the Rs 500-crore outlay announced by it for India. The company is looking at exporting the phones to neighbouring countries from its new manufacturing base here. Chinese investors know from experience that their investment is safe in India. The country has a safe political and business environment with a high need for capital investment, which is welcome from all sources. According to media reports, Yuho is looking for support from state governments in India, and is in discussions with some states which want to attract investment. Plans for Yuho’s new facility are likely to be finalized in the next two to three months. The company wants to start production from the new manufacturing facility by December 2019. More Chinese investors continue to look at India as a lucrative market. The Economic Times reported that Chinese handset maker Coolpad will invest $500 million in India over the next five years to strengthen its presence and to take on its rivals in the 5G landscape whenever the telecom ecosystem is commercially ready in the country. Buoyed by the vibrant demand in India for smart phones, the company wants to drive growth for the handset business and create a strategic roadmap for a share of the high-return market. Once the 5G technology is commercially rolled out by telecom operators in India, Coolpad wants to become one of the major brands in India’s colossal 5G handset market. India expects to hold 5G auctions later this year. According to the ET report, Coolpad has lined up $500 million for India for the next five years. Evidently, India continues to rank high as an investment destination.

Editor-in-Chief Mohammed Saqib

Yog strikes deep roots in China, reaches small towns

og has acquired such international appeal that across India, the country of its birth, it is now called by its anglicized name – yoga. A major language of ancient India was Sanskrit. A major language of the modern Indian civilization is Hindi. There is no word in either Sanskrit or Hindi as yoga. The word in our language is yog. Yog can be used as a noun or as a verb. It can mean the union, or to join. Union of the body, mind and soul that leads to Oneness. The root of the word is the Sanskrit word Yuj, which means Unity. Whenever Prime Minister Narendra Modi refers to this great treasure from India, he calls it Yog. Not the anglicized Yoga. It is sad that forgetting the beautiful word Yog which has such rich context and layers, the large majority of Indians now call it yoga. As if this great system of knowledge is only about movement, exercise and breathing techniques. It is amazing to see that one of the countries where Yog has taken deep roots is China. Ananth Krishnan, previously the China correspondent for leading Indian publications and one of India’s foremost writers on China, posted a photograph on social media of the Yog Day event in Handan city, Hebei province. The photograph shows people doing yog around a square lotus pond. It is stunning in its beauty. Krishnan noted that some of the most striking Yog Day photographs every year have been coming from China, where the event has taken on a life of its own, even reaching smaller towns. This is remarkable. The Hindustan Times, a leading Indian daily, recently reported that at a village about 300 kilometers from Beijing, elderly locals have used yog to cure aches and pains, and also to lift themselves out of poverty. The HT report stated that till 2016, most of the 260odd villagers of Yugouliang were poor. They were eking out a subsistence-level life through basic farming. Their children had migrated to work in cities and could barely support them. The fortune of the village changed after Lu Wenzhen, a government official, helped popularise yog in the village as a way to alleviate poverty. In three years since yog was introduced, the economics of the village has changed, said the report. The average income of the villagers increased by about 1100 yuan last year, excluding government subsidies. Lu told HT that this was possible by Yog, called as Yugouliang by many people. The popularity of the village as a yog hub is increasing. So the villagers can now sell higher-priced agricultural products like quinoa, as compared to other villages. The village has benefitted from yog not just economically. Lu said that yog has changed the quality of lives of the villagers. Their daily life is now led ‘yog style’, he said. Yog has become the ‘new life attitude and lifestyle among Yugouliang farmers’. According to Lu, after having adopted yog, the villagers are no longer lonely. Yog has become their spiritual sustenance and pursuit of a new life. “Their health level has been significantly improved and their mood is more cheerful. They have more confidence in life,” Lu was quoted in the HT report. Lu said Yog could strengthen friendly exchanges between China and India, and draw the people of the two countries closer.

Post Script: Enjoy the striking colour play in this issue by our layout designer Manoj Raikwar.

Executive Editor Rajni Shaleen Chopra

CONTENTS COVER STORY India-China Relations through the Prism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 2019

26 4

Pakistan an irritant, China the real challenge - discusses think-tank of defence experts at annual conference Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd)

12 BIMSTEC and BCIM Economic Corridor: The Challenge of Compatibility Dr. Pankaj K Jha

20 India must upgrade maritime strength, Can learn from China experience

38 The future of IndiaChina Relations Jayanta Ghosal

44 China-India Plus A new model of cooperation Ashok Bhan

49 Woodblock printing: A dying art in China, continues to flourish in India 50 China: An enigma wrapped in a riddle Maj Gen Pushpendra Singh (retd)

Capt Kunal N Uniyal

32 Economic boost through united Indian diaspora

56 Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strides in higher education and the lessons for India Rajni Shaleen Chopra

Amit Waikar

61 Gupshup May-June 2019 â&#x2013;Ş

STRATEGY, SECURITY THINK-TANK MANTHAN

Pakistan an

IRRITANT China the real CHALLENGE discusses THINK-TANK of defence experts at annual conference in Kasauli

â&#x2013;ª May-June 2019

 Rajni Shaleen Chopra

s India pursues its national interests in this increasingly troubled world, how is the nation faring on international platforms? What are India’s challenges vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, in particular – the two nations with whom we appear to have virtually non-resolvable problems. In our relations with the other powers, how are we faring? Has India dispensed with its time-honoured and pragmatic strategic autonomy? How do we balance conflicting interests in the rapidly-shifting geopolitical space? What are the strategic and security implications of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the larger Belt and Road Initiative for India? These were some of the issues that came up for discussion at the annual conference conducted by Strategic

Studies Cell at Kasauli Club, Kasauli in Himachal Pradesh. The conference was attended by a large number of serving Army and Air Force officers, and many veterans from the region including Chandigarh, Shimla and Solan. Eminent security experts from various fields shared their thoughts on the current security challenges facing the nation. They suggested measures that the new Modi government can undertake to successfully confront the looming dangers to India’s security. Former Defence Intelligence Agency chief and Convenor of the Strategic Studies Cell, Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd) stated that India has to be prepared to thwart a two-and-a-half front challenge emanating from China, Pakistan and internal security threats. He said that since combat capabilities take long to

Rajni Shaleen Chopra is Executive Editor of India China Chronicle

Army Commander Lt Gen Surinder Singh, former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd), former Defence Intelligence Chief Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd), former ambassador Mr KC Singh, former Naval Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd), former Adjutant General of Indian Army Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd), nuclear expert Mr Bharat Karnad, former Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak (retd), Chairman of Kasauli Club Brig Vikram Sharma and others at the conference

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STRATEGY, SECURITY THINK-TANK MANTHAN

build, the new government must allot adequate funds in the defense budget for the three services to acquire state-of-theart weaponry. Speakers at the conference discussed the new Great Game evolving between the United States, China and Russia. They deliberated upon the rapidly deepening alliance between Russia and China, recalibration of the international political dynamic by US President Donald Trump, and what it might mean for India’s international relations and efforts to balance its power equations. Former diplomat Mr KC Singh spoke on ‘Foreign Policy: Challenges for the new government with special reference to China and Pakistan’. He addressed the diplomatic challenges emerging from China and Pakistan. Mr Singh said that while striving for improving its relations with the US, India must maintain its strategic autonomy. Foreign policy, he emphasized, is more about continuity and less about change. Ambassador Singh offered highly valuable suggestions to sharpen India’s foreign policy handling. Speakers at the conference discussed the multiple strategy and security challenges faced by India in the new world. During discussions, it was noted that India – located in one of the most

Navigating rivalry between great powers biggest challenge for India’s foreign policy

ormer diplomat Mr KC Singh spoke on ‘Foreign Policy: Challenges for the new government with special reference to China and Pakistan. Mr Singh said that foreign policy is more about continuity and less about change. He recalled that major changes in the Indian foreign policy took place with ‘Accidental Prime Minister Mr Narasimha Rao’. Speaking in a light vein, Mr Singh said that sometimes, accidental leaders can deliver major change. Mr Narasimha Rao secured amazing strategic, security and economic goals for the nation. This re-tuning of India’s foreign policy was most suitable for the

Speakers at the conference discussed the new Great Game evolving between the United States, China and Russia. They deliberated upon the rapidly deepening alliance between Russia and China, recalibration of the international political dynamic by US President Donald Trump, and what it might mean for India’s international relations and efforts to balance its power equations Nuclear expert Bharat Karnad

▪ May-June 2019

times. For one, India started engaging the United States more seriously during this period. This was also the time India initiated its Look East Policy, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reemphasized with the Act East Policy. As part of the Look East Policy, India deepened diplomatic relations with the ten ASEAN nations, comprising Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar (Burma) and Laos. Mr Singh said that during the leadership of Mr Rao, India further re-adjusted its foreign policy by establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. It realized that in dealing with the Arab world, Israel is the other side

Former diplomat KC Singh

of the looking glass. The strategy for an impactful foreign policy, said Mr Singh, was wise usage of the available means to achieve the desirable ends, he noted. Mr Singh said the global security scenario changed when terrorism hit the US in 2001.

With the 9/11 attack, the US realized the alarming threat posed by radical extremism. A senior US diplomat made the famous comment that while Pakistan was an ally, India was a friend. Mr Singh noted that it was ironical that the US had fostered the rise of China to counter the erstwhile Soviet Union and isolate it globally. With its sustained confrontation with Russia, the US continued to support the rise of China. Mr Singh said that Russia has now declined as force, but it is trying to hang on to power, and is taking the help of China to counter the US challenge. This, Mr Singh said, was the reverse of what the US had planned. Much to US consternation, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had an expansive celebration of their alliance in Moscow and St Petersburg in June. Putin declared that the partnership with China had risen to “unprecedented levels”. The Chinese media, an arm of the government, gushed over the current phase as the “golden age” in relations with Russia. The increasing closeness between China and Russia has worried Japan too, he said. In light of these geo-political developments, India had new

diplomatic challenges that also came with opportunities. Mr Singh noted that balancing is different from non alignment. That the Sino-Russian alliance is being framed as a counter to the United States makes it that much more complicated for Indian diplomacy. Navigating the rivalry between the great powers remains the biggest challenge for India’s foreign policy during Modi’s second term. Mr Singh admitted that he would not have expected any US President to initiate the kind of confrontation with China, as seen under Donald Trump. The US has appointed a battery of highly experienced lawyers to deal with the imbroglio, while China is pursuing resolution through its diplomats and bureaucrats. This shows that while the US is looking for legal commitments from China on the matter, the Chinese are looking for an administrative fix, he said. Technology theft, technology bullying, protectionism – the US wants to address these and other points vis-à-vis China. The major impact will be felt on industrial and manufacturing supply chains, Mr Singh noted. Where Pakistan is concerned, Mr Singh questioned whether are we in the process of walking back the scale of escalation seen during the election.

Deterrence is a mind game; India must revisit its nuclear strategy

ne of India’s foremost nuclear experts, the internationally-renowned Mr. Bharat Karnad said that it was time to visit India’s nuclear strategy. While the US had been regarded by India as a trusted ally, Uncle Sam did not measure up to India’s reasonable expectations at various times. Hence, India faced a trust deficit vis-à-vis the US. Mr Karnad said that it is time to think of Indian foreign policy as a disruptive instrument, because deterrence is a mind game. Mr Karnad said that conventionally, foreign policy bureaucracy is risk averse globally. But such riskaverseness can also lead to complacency in policy. He stated

in clear terms that while Pakistan is a military nuisance. China is a military threat. Pakistan’s GDP, he pointed out, was far outstripped by India’s GDP. India is a rising global economic power, he said. Hence, we must not over-play Pakistan’s nuisance value. China is the real adversary, he stated. This recognition must be reflected in our strategy planning. Mr Karnad is the author of many books which are essential reading for military professionals. He is frequently called upon by various think tanks, especially abroad, to talk to them about various nuclear aspects concerning the region.

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geo-politically stressed regions of the world with not so friendly neighbours – confronts formidable challenges. The hallmark of good governance is whether we are truly preparing to gear up for these bi-lateral and multi-lateral challenges, or are we as a nation content only with fighting and winning elections at the domestic front. All nations naturally work towards their own interests. In the pursuit of national interest, the strategic vision for the nation crystallizes. It is embellished with clarity, unflagging determination and a sense of purpose for the nation, and must be shorn of petty politicking. Provisioning of adequate resources is mandatory. Some participants were of the view that while India follows the doctrine of massive retaliation, does India also need tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) on the lines of Pakistan? What should be India’s overall nuclear strategy especially keeping Chinese and Pakistani nuclear preparedness? One of India’s leading nuclear experts Mr Bharat Karnad spoke about this vital subject. Mr Karnad

amplified the nuclear strategy which can keep at bay Pakistan’s frequent nuclear saber-rattling and China’s muscle-flexing. Former Commander-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) spoke about the maritime threats emerging from China’s forays in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. He emphasized upon the need for the Indian Navy to transform itself into a formidable blue-water Navy. Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) also highlighted the growing maritime assertiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific. He stated that peninsular India has more than viable threats on both its western and eastern seaboards, and also has immense opportunities for our country’s strategic augmentation of defense. The distinguished sailor spoke at length about India’s strengths on its peninsula. He suggested measures that should be taken to counter China’s maritime challenges to India independently and also in collusion with Pakistan. Speakers discussed that India is a reckonable nuclear power and has always

Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd)

India has to be prepared to thwart a two-and-a-half front challenge emanating from China, Pakistan and internal security threats. Since combat capabilities take long to build, the new government must allot adequate funds in the defense budget for the three services to acquire state-of-the-art weaponry Former Defence Intelligence Chief and Convener of Strategic Studies Group Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd)

▪ May-June 2019

India must build strength in the Andaman Nicobar Islands to secure national security

ormer Commander-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) said that the immense significance of water to the modern world can be gauged by the fact that global economic engagement happens over water. He said that while it is correct to view China as a major potential threat to India’s growth, at the same time it is also essential to be pragmatic about China’s naval limitations over water. Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) conceded that China has built great strength in its naval fleet. He also agreed that China is seriously engaged in the business of power projection, and has doubled down on acquisition of

displayed nuclear maturity unlike some other nations. With a sharp decline in harmony among nations globally, India confronts multiple challenges. Pakistan attempts to intimidate India by holding out nuclear threat. The Chinese with their expansionist ambitions are a formidable nuclear power, and the clear and present danger for India. China’s global rise and its striving for global dominance was one of the major points of consideration at the conference. The speakers discussed that China’s assertiveness is not confined only to the region. China’s efforts for domination have now been observed on the global stage, and have become a matter of concern for all major powers. The speakers noted that China began playing this game decades ago. In all areas of human endeavour, China is now rapidly and dangerously augmenting its political,

global influence. Nevertheless, logistics over water was a huge issue which China cannot ignore. China is not larger than life in the Indian Ocean, he said. Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) said that blue water capability is greatly compromised unless friendly nations offer bases for supporting naval operations. He said that India is highly blessed geographically because it possesses the most amazing peninsula, which has gifted it great potential to scale high on naval capability and strategic deterrence. Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd) advocated that India must build its strength in the Andaman and Nicobar

economic and military muscle. Participants at the conference discussed that notwithstanding all these challenges confronting it, India conferred on itself the nuclear no-first-use strategy. They discussed whether the strategy is relevant today, or whether India should amend it. A distinguished panel of Air Vice Marshal (retd) Kapil Kak, Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd) and Lt Gen Deepinder Singh Hooda discussed conflict resolution in Kashmir. The panel discussed the way forward for resolving the vexed problems in Kashmir. Former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd) who had masterminded the Sep 2016 surgical strike, former Ladakh Corps Commander Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd) and Kashmir expert Air Vice Marshal (retd) Kapil Kak, who was a member of the Yashwant Sinha-led

Islands to secure its national security. Vice Admiral Anup Singh (retd), one of India’s foremost naval strategy experts, emphasized that it is important for India to continually identify China’s vulnerabilities and spruce up its own strengths. He said that it is essential for India to create synergies and build trust among friendly littorals. At the same time, India must use strategic partnerships in bilateral and multi lateral mode to help and seek cooperation of ASEAN nations terrorized by China. Seabased deterrence is vital, he said. India is aware of China's primary vulnerabilities and is suitably equipped to act upon them if required, he stated.

Interlocutors Group to J&K participated in the panel discussion, moderated by Lt Gen Davar (retd). The panel was of the view that all antinational activities by either Pakistani terrorists or local militants should be dealt with firmly and without any reservations. At the same time, a healing touch towards the misguided youth must be initiated to prevent them from being drawn towards militant activities. In addition, the Centre must make generous provisions for economic upliftment of the state. Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd) emphasised that radicalization in the Valley was on the increase and the security forces must take stern steps to put down stone pelting and other anti-national acts. Lt Gen Hooda (retd) suggested that the government must evolve a well conceived politico-military strategy to resolve the

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STRATEGY, SECURITY THINK-TANK MANTHAN

While India follows the doctrine of massive retaliation, does India also need tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) on the lines of Pakistan? What should be India’s overall nuclear strategy especially keeping Chinese and Pakistani nuclear preparedness? What is the nuclear strategy which can keep at bay Pakistan’s frequent nuclear saber-rattling and China’s muscle-flexing? J&K problem. AVM Kapil Kak (retd), who has visited Kashmir many times, felt that the overall situation was improving and we must reinforce the healing touch. Lt Gen Kamal Davar (retd) suggested Muslim clergy from other parts of the country to be positioned in J&K to suitably educate the youth to make them desist from violence and mischief. Army Commander Western Command Lt Gen Surinder Singh delivered the concluding address at the conference. He said that while it was vital to discuss the country’s defense preparedness and tactical capabilities, the defense forces of India were well-equipped and highly motivated to deal with any challenge facing the nation. Lt Gen Surinder Singh said that the Indian Armed Forces has a fine human rights record while engaged in counter insurgency operations. With the synergetic efforts of the civil administration and the security forces, the situation in J&K was bound to improve, he stressed. Lt Gen Surinder Singh emphasized that while Kashmir was an integral part of India, Kashmiris were equally loved as fellow Indians by the nation’s Army. He said that the Army was fully cognizant of the human and democratic rights of Kashmiris, and was committed to safeguarding these rights at all times. Lt Gen Surinder Singh warned that terrorism and militancy will be dealt with a heavy hand. He felt that the overall security situation in Jammu and Kashmir was well under control and was showing signs of improvement. 

▪ May-June 2019

Sidelights One of the questions asked at conference was whether CPEC may impact the Kashmir conflict. China is a major force now. China Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative. China wants to safeguard CPEC against any terrorist threat caused by Pakistan's military volatility against India. Some strategy writers of Pakistan have written that China wants Pakistan to normalize as a nation so that there is no threat to CPEC and the multi-billion dollar Chinese investment in Pakistan. Will pressure from China make Pakistan lose its proxy war on Kashmir, hence toning down on terrorism there? Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd) was of the opinion that despite the pressure from China, Pakistan is not likely to give up its policy of using crossborder terrorism as an arm of the state. Gen Hooda (retd) conceded that China would be concerned about the investment in CPEC and its long-term safety. But Pakistan is unlikely to abandon its long-nurtured strategy of harbouring terrorists and using terror as a state instrument. Speakers at the conference were also of the view that Beijing wants to restrict India to the small triangle of Pakistan-India-China. It does not want to foster India’s growth, and see it gain a bigger stature on the world stage. Hence China will not stop Pakistan from engaging in low-intensity war on the western border.

May-June 2019 â&#x2013;ª

TRANSIT CORRIDORS MAXIMIZING BENEFITS

Courtesy NewsIn.Asia

BIMSTEC and BCIM Economic Corridor

The Challenge of Compatibility 12

▪ May-June 2019

Nepal PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Bhutan PM Tshering Tobgay, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, PM Narendra Modi, Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, Myanmar’s State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi and Thai Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Virasakdi Futrakul during the opening ceremony of the BIMSTEC Summit in Goa in October 2016

 Dr. Pankaj K Jha

hina has been strongly promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through BRI 2.0 which is meant to integrate Europe, Central Asia, West Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia into highway and rail networks. It aims to create supply chains, build manufacturing hubs and also stimulate investment. Primarily projected as the new version of the ancient Silk Road, BRI is as a unique initiative projected by Chinese to bring about equality, progress and prosperity. However, the regions that have been identified are seen from the point of view of Chinese neo-imperialist ambitions in which it aims to integrate the possible challengers to its low-cost manufacturing and maintain its supremacy as the global factory. Given the fact that Chinese real wages are reducing and there is unrest in parts of China due to skewed growth and limited employment opportunities, China is compelled to reconfigure its growth strategy. With regard to South Asia, China has already engaged Pakistan through its more than USD 60 billion ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But with regard to the larger South Asia, China has been proposing the BCIM economic corridor. In the end, it appears that the BRI and Bangladesh–China– India–Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation (BCIM) are meant to weave the low costs production centres in India, Bangladesh and Myanmar into Chinese ancillary units. This article looks into the Chinese objectives and how BRI, earlier known as the gateway strategy, and BCIM have evolved over a period of time. The article investigates whether these are mutually exclusive or are a part of large integrated agenda.

Development on eastern, southern flanks crucial for India economically and strategically Prime Minister Modi invited BIMSTEC leaders for his second term oath taking

ceremony, indicating the priority that is given to India’s eastern neighbours. On the other hand, during his visit to China in May 2015, Prime Minister Modi has referred to BCIM as one of the important areas of convergence between India and China, and it reflected in the Joint Communique between the two leaders. The sectors and the areas which would be open for cooperation between the four countries will be decided and steered by consensus and dialogue. BCIM is expected to open the trade route, particularly land route for India to reach out to its northeast and Myanmar. The major challenge is to synchronize the objectives of BCIM and The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). In the full implementation of the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) transport corridor, the motor vehicles arrangement is seen as successful homogenization and standardization of motor vehicles, recognition of driving licenses and improvement in transport infrastructure. This is expected to trigger economic growth and trade. Both these regions (BBIN and mainland Southeast Asia) are critically important for India to generate economic growth and

Dr. Pankaj K Jha is Associate Professor at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), Jindal Global University

BCIM can be further explored, subject to China’s keen intention of furthering economic partnership with India. While the land routes with Bangladesh and Myanmar would be strengthened, the route connecting India with China has been relatively under-developed. This is only a two-lane highway, particularly in Nathu la, leading to limitation in growth of trade volume. The issues related to BCIM need to be resolved in a more structured way so that the multiple benefits from this integrative and participative corridor accrue to all, rather than the select upstream countries only May-June 2019 ▪

TRANSIT CORRIDORS MAXIMIZING BENEFITS

development, as well as reduce freight cost on getting more integrated with Southern Asian region. There is a caveat to the whole issue. At some point of time, BCIM might challenge Mekong India Economic Corridor (corridor linking India with mainland Southeast Asian countries, particularly Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia). This initiative is favoured by India, particularly under the Modi government second term. The purpose is to accelerate manufacturing in India’s southern and eastern region and help in integrating India in Southeast Asia through integrated value addition network. The technical aspects of BIMSTEC economic cooperation have been discussed within the Indian establishment, and the agenda of BCIM needs to be synchronized with BRICS and BIMSTEC. The invitation extended to the BIMSTEC ministers for a Summit with BRICS leaders in 2016 amplifies India’s priorities. BCIM can be further explored subject to China’s sincere intention of furthering economic partnership with India. However, while the land routes with Bangladesh and Myanmar would be strengthened, the route connecting India with China has been relatively underdeveloped. This is only a twolane highway, particularly in Nathu La, leading to limitation in growth of trade volume. The issues related to BCIM need to be discussed in a more structured way so that the benefits of this integrative and participative corridor accrue to all rather than the select upstream countries only.

BCIM offers multiple benefits, but fears remain China has been strongly advocating the benefits of the BCIM economic growth corridor given the fact that there is skewed development in its Southern and Eastern provinces. Those provinces lying close to Eastern Chinese coast have witnessed accelerated growth, while provinces such as Yunnan have not gained much. The BCIM, having a

▪ May-June 2019

geographical area of nearly 208,000 sq. km, has been a unique dialogue forum in many respects. It is one of the very few regional forums in which China and India are more or less equal co-partners, although some Indian observers see it as another Chinese geopolitical design to penetrate South Asia. India and China are the two ‘big economies’ of the region, and it is expected that their cooperation might hold this regional initiative together. China and India have comparatively better technology, a more efficient

East. With the exchange of enclaves under the Land Boundary Agreement, the pre-Partition transport linkages need to be re-established, and India is able to integrate its road and rail infrastructure with Bangladesh. The purpose is to achieve easy access to India’s north-eastern region. If that is not possible, there is no point for India in attempting to connect to Southeast Asia through the north-eastern region (NER). The reality is that India first needs Bangladesh to help access its north-east region, and thereafter using

The BCIM is projected to have the potential to integrate India’s east and north-east region with the other three partnering countries over various converging advantages. The 2011-kilometre long proposed economic corridor joining Kolkata with Kunming is advocated as a road to success for all the four countries involved in this zone. Once major cities such as Kolkata, Guwahati, Dhaka, Mandalay, and Kunming are interconnected, it is projected to generate strong economic growth momentum

labour force and improved physical and commercial infrastructure. Bangladesh and Myanmar have a large unskilled and semi-skilled labour force as well as basic manufacturing infrastructure. The main reason for creating this economic corridor and supporting this endeavour is because India’s ‘Act East’ Policy needs transit corridor as well as port cooperation with Bangladesh. Bangladesh has facilitated the necessary transit linkages to help India connect its mainland to the North

the region to connect to Southeast Asia. So it is important for the success of the Act East Policy to push ahead with the BIMSTEC process. This process involves both Bangladesh and Myanmar, which are important to developing India’s overland connectivity to Southeast Asia. Therefore, India wants that instead of BCIM, BIMSTEC should be promoted. It invariably would merge BBIN and BIMSTEC. The invitation to BIMSTEC heads of government for the swearing in

ceremony of Prime Minister Modi for his second term signifies this agenda.

Bangladesh cooperation essential for north-east boost Bangladesh will allow India greater access to its North East only if it is able to gain major concessions on a host of issues like getting a fair share of Teesta river water and unilateral tariff concessions for its exports to India. This is happening, albeit with incremental progression. Since the Teesta river accord might get signed in the near future, the bonhomie

Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina to India in May 2018, BIMSTEC was referred and was seen as a necessary precursor for greater engagement between the two countries. BCIM must adopt the BIMSTEC model. India-Bangladesh relations so far have been influenced by regime changes in Dhaka. With stable regime in Bangladesh, there is a possibility of trilateral gas pipeline between India-Myanmar and Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been contemplating to buy extra gas form Tripura and also get gas from Myanmar.

Exchange of Agreements at Sher-e-Bangla in Bangladesh, as Prime Minister Modi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina look on

between the two countries has increased. India has agreed to provide major trade concessions to Bangladesh, and also set up an Indian Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the country to facilitate Indian investment, that will help it address its highly adverse trade balance with India. The permanent solution to Bangladesh’s land boundary and maritime boundary disputes with India has helped in further enhancing the relationship. During the visit of

Courtesy MEA

but the Rohingya refugees issue stymied progress on this front.

India’s Act East policy will help China too Using the ‘land linkages through bridges’ of the north-east to access south-west China (and through it other areas of China far away from its eastern coast) makes much more business sense than trying to access south-east Asia by land. So ‘Acting East’ through India’s north-

eastern states could work better for IndiaChina bilateral trade, if a substantial part of it passes through the region. The Kunming from Kolkata BCIM car rally route was 3026 kilometers. Compare the land freight costs for a transit from the eastern coast to western or south-western China, in comparison to maritime transport. The cost differential is huge. Land route through north-east India and Upper Myanmar would be relatively more cost effective. However, India has laid stress on developing networks in the region and addressing the north-east insurgency. India feels that China gave refuge to ULFA insurgents like Paresh Baruah. This shows that China wants to use fugitive insurgents for its hidden political agenda. There is a need for the economic development of the region as well. The Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region under its report had identified eight horticultural and mineral products. These products included fruits such as pineapples and oranges, construction materials such as bamboos, limestone and cement, spice and oils like citronella oil, cinnamon, and natural rubber. The report, Additional Market Access Frontier (AMAF), proposes connectivity through India’s northeast region because of its geographic proximity to the target areas. India’s can export these products to Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. There are no exports to China. Thailand as a market has been considered, being a neighbouring country and with a common membership under BIMSTEC. In addition to value of exports, the quantities to be exported are also indicated in the report so as to consider this in context of the available/ enabling infrastructure to move the products.

Myanmar, Bangladesh potential as transit corridors Like Myanmar, Bangladesh also has the potential to emerge as a transport corridor for both India and China. If Bangladesh provides transit facilities to

May-June 2019 ▪

TRANSIT CORRIDORS MAXIMIZING BENEFITS

India, Bhutan, Nepal, western coastal regions of Myanmar and south-western provinces of China, it could earn a high transit fee. Bangladesh can also make use of its rich coastline to its advantage by providing access to its ports to the neighbouring land-locked regions. This will not only revolutionize the structure of internal multi-modal connectivity but also make trade and commerce more competitive. The integration of multi-modal transport network within BCIM would also facilitate the access of Bangladesh to the markets of East Asian countries through Myanmar. BCIM will give China access to both Indian markets as well as its resources. A billion plus population with a growing per capita income is definitely of interest to any country. Considering the highly efficient and low cost of production advantage, Yunnan can put up a stiff fight for Indian companies. In addition to this, access to key resources like energy, coal, water, etc. would support the growth trajectory of China. The Indian establishment, after discussing these issues in detail, agreed on two major pilot projects – the energy corridor and the BIMSTEC electricity grid. Both Thailand and Bhutan are included as partners in this process. BCIM is projected by certain vested interests to have the potential to integrate India’s east and north-east region with the other three partnering countries over various converging advantages. The 2011 kilometres long proposed economic corridor joining Kolkata with Kunming is advocated as a road to success for all the four countries involved in this zone. Once major cities such as Kolkata, Guwahati, Dhaka, Mandalay, and Kunming are interconnected, it is projected to generate strong economic growth momentum. It is advocated that development of connectivity and multi-modal transportation facilities across the border would enable the north-east region to access the markets of neighbouring countries. This in turn would strengthen resource-industry

▪ May-June 2019

To increase convergence between the BIMSTEC and BBIN participating countries, the following steps are suggested: 1. Establish a common-authority for planning, execution and coordination amongst the various agencies and departments of countries to set up a BIMSTEC Research Centre in New Delhi which could look into BBIN, and BIMSTEC issues. The northeast region can have a branch office of this common authority. This common authority can monitor the various functionary institutions and organizations, both state agencies and private investors, which can be modeled on the lines of the Greater Mekong Sub Region (GMS) office. 2. This institution should be tasked to draw-up action plans for effective interagency coordination and functioning of various agencies. For the regional office, the Government of India should entrust this work to the National Economic Council (NEC) with representatives from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Ministry of Commerce.

Trade and cooperation in power generation and distribution could be one option for enhancing connectivity and spur economic growth in region. Four models could be adopted in this regard, as follows: (a) Bilateral trade in electricity, such as between Bangladesh and India, India and Myanmar, and India and Thailand and integrating these countries into the South Asia regional power market (b) Pool-based exchanges by creating power grids of subregional countries exchanging/ trading electricity (c) Wheeling facility, i.e. centralize and re-distribute it (d) Creating a regional tourist circuit and one visa regime. The regional structures should not only address issues related to trade and connectivity but

should also include people-topeople cooperation, cultural interaction, cooperation in the field of health, tourism and education among the India and ASEAN countries. This should include setting up hospitals, twining programs among institutions relate to student and faculty exchange programs. Further, medical conferences and integrated tours could be organized. This can be developed on the lines of the Buddhist circuit and the Asian heritage tours. India has become amenable to the BIMSTEC now, given the benefits that would to accrue to her in terms of connectivity and exploring complementarities. However, India has desired that the BCIM which is a selective grouping should encapsulate BBIN, BCIM and BIMSTEC agenda to facilitate trade, investment and all round infrastructure and connectivity.

linkages, leading to the growth of resource-based industries, as the region is blessed with abundant bounty of nature. Instead of BCIM, BIMSTEC can be instrumental in addressing the problems of underdevelopment of the north-eastern region. This may be a difficult task to accomplish within the framework of national development, since market forces tend to bypass geographically peripheral areas.

Myanmar is counted amongst one of the most underdeveloped countries in world, regardless of being a veritable store house of natural resources like gas. The BCIM economic cooperation will benefit Myanmar in improving its socioeconomic stature. BCIM needs to be synergized with BIMSTEC at structural and official level so as to gain traction in policy circles. The BCIM economic cooperation will support Myanmar’s unexploited agriculture sector, assist in energy resource exploration, construction of power plants, building transport infrastructure and create an investment climate for economic development. The agriculture and agro-based processing industry provide major livelihood and employment opportunities for the nation. Agro-based industry and BCIM SEZ might help in the development of ancillary industry in the region. It is necessary to understand that peoples and communities not only want development but also respect for their identity. Given the in-built suspicion and conflict over issues such as land, river or boundary, the resolution of such inter-state rivalries and disputes should be a pre-requisite before proceeding with any model for international cooperation. In the context of BCIM, such inter-state rivalries can create distrust in establishing people-to-people contact, since the people will be restricted by international boundaries. The proposed BCIM transport has to allow non-military travel and people-to-people exchanges on their own terms, and not by means of monitoring and surveillance by states. Till date, the BCIM initiative has made very tardy progress. The Kolkata-toKunming car rally in 2013, sponsored by India and China, drew public attention to the fact that inter-regional connectivity was a possibility. However, official inertia on this is palpable. The matter was first discussed by the former Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh and the Chinese Premier, at their meeting in New Delhi in May 2013. Thereafter, the matter was again discussed in September 2014

The BCIM, having a geographical area of nearly 208,000 sq. km, has been a unique dialogue forum in many respects. It is one of the very few regional forums in which China and India are more or less equal co-partners, although some Indian observers see it as another Chinese geopolitical design to penetrate South Asia. India and China are the two ‘big economies’ of the region. It is expected that their cooperation might hold this regional initiative together between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to India. Both sides agreed to consult other countries (Myanmar and Bangladesh) in setting up a joint study group to examine the possibility and implications of a Bangladesh-ChinaIndia-Myanmar Economic Corridor (henceforth BCIMEC). However, the report only cites benefits to China rather than to India.

China, India have vast potential for shared growth The irony is that both India and China live with the counterpoints of surpluses and

May-June 2019 ▪

TRANSIT CORRIDORS MAXIMIZING BENEFITS

deficits, with no mechanism to match the same. China has surplus capacity in core industries like cement, cement, heavy machinery, semi-finished metal sheets and fertilizers. India suffers because of supply chain imposed scarcities and shortages. Further, logistical challenges covering sectors ranging from food items to coal and energy further impede manufacturing potential. India has also a large but unexplored potential to export to China. But there is such a deficit of detailed awareness in India about Chinese mar-

between India and China, there is a need for conflict-resolution mechanisms – particularly dispute settlements on trade, strong industry councils, credentialing authorities, legal and consultative firms, mutual acceptance and certification of specified educational and trade qualifications, greater interaction between regional trade bodies and economic think tanks etc. There is an intrinsic lesson for India that if it addresses the issues of its production economies aggressively, there

ment of goods will of course give rise to some imbalances, but the much-feared ‘swamping’ of Indian markets by ‘cheap Chinese goods’ as contemplated by opponents of the BCIM-EC is likely to be only a localized and short-lived phenomenon.

Mekong Ganga Economic Corridor, Indo-Pacific Corridor and BCIM While China has been diligently espousing for furthering the BCIM agenda, India has been propagating

To enhance trade between India and China there is a need for conflict-resolution mechanisms – particularly dispute settlements on trade, strong industry councils, credentialing authorities, legal and consultative firms, mutual acceptance and certification of specified educational and trade qualifications, greater interaction between regional trade bodies and economic think tanks etc

kets at the local and regional level, that a lot of market demand is missed through lack of signaling mechanisms. China’s reluctance to open the services sector for India has complicated relations between the two countries. India and China need to strengthen the trade superstructure to enhance mutual trade, investment and business interaction. Xi Jinping had promised Chinese investments to the tune of 20 billion during his visit to India. Most of the investment is yet to reach the promised target. To enhance trade

▪ May-June 2019

can be a substantial reduction in its current trade deficit with China. As China moves up the value chain, it will vacate spaces that can be taken up by Indian manufacturing industry. This is happening right now with Vietnam and Bangladesh, and in some sectors in India as well. This can escalate the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP, with its positive consequences on employment and incomes, as well as the general level of competitiveness of Indian products. More open borders and easier move-

the Mekong India Economic Corridor (MIEC). As a corollary to the MIEC, the US has been espousing to strengthen the Indo-Pacific economic corridor. This will subsume the economic development initiatives and all such growth corridors to give a counter narrative to the Belt and Road Initiative that China has been vigorously promoting. Resistance to BRI has started to emerge in the Southeast Asian region. Many social and political groups in Thailand, Myanmar and Malaysia feel

that it is just meant to maintain Chinese manufacturing supremacy, while at the same time not giving desired benefits for economic development or employment in the host country. In the past also, according to the Chinese Aid White Paper released in 2011, it was apparent that China has support infrastructure projects in only those regions which had negative balance of trade with China. China is keen to engage India in BRI. But given the issues of sovereignty, India has denounced such endeavours of

Given the fact that Nathu La is one of the important trading points between India and China and is increasingly seen as the possible rendezvous point for Bangladesh, India and subsequently for Nepal and Bhutan, the stand-offs will decelerate the trade and economic initiatives between the two countries.

Prepare the North-East for exogenous influences Among India’s academics and strategic thinkers, it was highlighted that there

State leaders at the fourth BIMSTEC Summit at Kathmandu, Nepal, in August 2018

China given the fact that a large part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). While the comprehensive engagement between India and China has been an ongoing process, wide-ranging border tensions in Aksai Chin, Doklam and many other bordering areas have stalemated the Chinese charm offensive. The standoff between India and China with regard to Doklam, which was diffused in August 2017, will have its own collateral damage.

are some areas of concern that need to be addressed before implementing BCIM connectivity in the north-east region. First and foremost is the lack of basic infrastructure like roads, power, telecommunication, market, and digital connectivity, which are far below national average and require attention. In this connection, it is necessary to complete all approved road works being undertaken by the Ministry of Surface Transport in the north-east region under its flagship program, Special Accelerated

Road Development Programme for the North East (SARDP-NE) under the National Highway Development Programme (NHDP), particularly. A number of proposed SARDP-NE roads connect to the proposed ASEAN and BCIM route. Secondly, the people of the north-east region are extremely vulnerable border communities. As the regional routes open, their lives are bound to be affected in many respects, socio-culturally as also the physical environment. It is therefore necessary that people in the region are psychologically prepared to accept these changes, including the presence of ‘outsiders’ in their midst. These regions are already ethnically polarized and politically divided within, leading to fragmented underdevelopment of the states herein. The region will require necessary safeguards against exogenous divisive influences which may be exerted on them by the presence of large numbers of foreigners. There has been a need for Act East Policy Coordination office for the north east region. This will ensure that the BCIM and Indo-ASEAN continental road connectivity are appropriately addressed. It is necessary to immediately set up the BIMSTEC (as also the Indo-ASEAN) regional coordination office in the northeast region to take all necessary steps. India must undertake measures to support BIMSTEC institutional mechanisms. The nomenclature of the BIMSTEC could be BIMSTEC Growth Zone (BIMSTEC-GZ). In its present form, it gives the impression that the EC facilitates trucks and freights on highway, and the north-east region does not gain anything. Therefore, it would be better to rename it as suggested. There are concerns that development and extraction/exploitation of the resources in the north-east region will have an impact on environment. Therefore special attention should be given for preservation of ecology and wildlife preservation, and the growth zones should be developed in a sustainable manner. 

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ASSESSMENT COMMERCIAL MARINE POWER

India must upgrade

MARITIME STRENGTH, Can learn from China experience

â&#x2013;ª May-June 2019

 Kunal Narayan Uniyal

ith 70% of the world covered by water and 90% of trade being handled by sea, maritime trade is the backbone of the world’s economy. For long, humans have depended on lakes, rivers, seas and oceans for food, resources, minerals and oil. Maritime economy, also referred to as the blue economy, covers all marketable activities linked to large and small water bodies. Nations with a strong maritime presence and strong infrastructure in their ports rank higher in terms of trade and development. It is highly important that nations with good approach to seas or oceans must structure their economy around water transportation. China and India are two such nations with a substantive coastline. However, there is a stark contrast between Indian and Chinese maritime trade. China has 34 major seaports, and 2000 minor ports. India has 13 major ports and 200 minor ports. In terms of infrastructure, Chinese ports are well equipped with cargo handling gears, and most of their ports are dredged to an extent where large vessels can occupy the berth. Indian ports are still in the development phase. Leaving aside a few ports like Mundra, JNPT and Visakhapatnam, many of our major ports still need proper upgradation. China has invested heavily in their inland waterways, which is giving them rich dividends. Most of China’s minor ports are connected through inland waterways, which are served by small vessels and barges. India has recently commenced its inland waterways project by the name of Sagarmala. It will take time for Indian rivers to be well connected to the sea through regular movement of small vessels and barges.

Capt Kunal Narayan Uniyal, a first-class postgraduate from Cardiff University, is a professional Master Mariner. He has served thirteen years at sea with different nationalities on oil tankers, bulk carriers, container vessels and log carriers. After a successful stint at sea, he decided to pursue his higher studies and went to the prestigious Cardiff University to study M.Sc. in Maritime Policy and Shipping Management. Post that, he started working with Canopus Group, a Ship Broking and Chartering firm in Baltic Exchange, London. He is now General Manager with the company. Capt Kunal, an accomplished writer, has thirteen books in seven different languages under his belt. He has received several awards and felicitation for his work which includes Felicitation by House of Life, France, Nautical Institute, London, Seafarer choice award, 2015 and felicitation by Anglo-Univan Group. He opinion pieces and articles regularly feature in both English and Hindi dailies

May-June 2019 ▪

ASSESSMENT COMMERCIAL MARINE POWER

Chinese Maritime Economy The Chinese maritime economy generated 7.8 trillion yuan (1.22 trillion USD) in 2017, and grew at the pace of 7.5% annually in the last five years. The influence of maritime trade in the Chinese economy can be adjudged from the fact that the blue economy contributes to almost 10% of total Chinese GDP. The major governmental push to China’s blue economy began with the declaration by General Secretary Hu Jintao in 2012: “We should enhance our capacity for exploiting marine resources, develop the marine economy, protect the marine ecological environment, resolutely safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power.” The interest of China in the maritime sector can be gauged from the fact that five Chinese companies were controlling 18 percent of all container shipping handled globally in 2015. Nearly two-thirds of the top 50 containers ports in the world have Chinese investment. Of the top 10 port operators worldwide, Chinese companies handled 39 per cent of all volumes. Further to that, China’s huge stake in the South China Sea trade can be deduced from the fact that 64 percent of China’s maritime trade transited the waterways in 2016. This Chinese trade accounts for nearly 14.8 percent of the world’s GDP, which is 1470 billion dollars and 39.5 percent of all trades in goods. China’s trading might in the South China Sea can be concluded from the figure depicted below.

Indian Maritime Economy Since independence, Indian Shipping tonnage has registered a remarkable growth. The Indian merchant fleet strength stood at 1204 vessels with 10.31 million GRT as on December 2014, representing a 54-fold increase in GRT since independence. Approximately 95 percent of the country’s trade by volume (70 percent in terms of value) is moved by sea.

▪ May-June 2019

India is among the topmost trading partners of China, with imports of goods worth USD 72 billion. China imports USD 12 billion of goods from India, most of it via sea. The volume of trade between the two countries suggests that both the nations will benefit with the improvement of maritime trade between them

in trade. It is for this reason that the government has invested in the Sagarmala project. Under this project, the government plans to develop 12 coastal economic regions with an estimated investment of Rs 12 lakh crore. These projects will lead to the development of manufacturing hubs, supported by port modernization projects. This will create tremendous employment opportunities, estimated at four million direct and six million indirect jobs, and empower coastal communities through skilling programs. So far, projects worth Rs 1 lakh crore (USD 15 billion) under the Sagarmala program are at various stages of implementation and development.

Indian maritime industry lags behind

India’s vast coastline of 7,500 km is a major geographical factor that puts our maritime sector at an advantageous position. India’s total external trade grew to USD 838.46 billion in FY19, implying a CAGR of 5.53 per cent since

FY09. Merchandise exports during the year were USD 331.02 billion, while imports reached USD 507.44 billion. The government has now realized that by developing and enhancing the maritime sector, there can be a significant growth

Even after investing majorly in maritime projects, Indian maritime trade still lags behind China with respect to overall contribution to the GDP. The major reason for this is lack of a proper maritime policy. Even though a major portion of our land has sea interface, India has not been able to develop its ports to required standards. Indian shipping still lags behind the rest of the world with respect to fleet size as well as GDP contribution. The Indian shipping fleet stands at the 14th position globally as per deadweight tonnage (DWT). The Indian shipping fleet consists of 515 vessels with gross registered tonnage of 7.06 million and DWT of 11.5 million tonnes. In terms of world shipping tonnage, India’s share in terms of gross tonnage stood at 1.18% in 2008, which is nearly constant in the preceding three years. According to a report by the UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), the top five ship owners are Greece, Japan, China, Germany and Singapore. Together they have a market share of 49.5% of DWT. Only one country from Latin America (Brazil) is among the top 35 ship owning countries, and

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ASSESSMENT COMMERCIAL MARINE POWER

none from Africa. At the end of 2016, the entire China-owned fleet, excluding Hong Kong-owned tonnage, reached 139.3 million gross tonnes – a three-fold expansion over one decade. This volume is the world’s third largest by owner nationality, at 11 percent of the global total. Greece is in the top position, and at the second position is Japan.

Cargo trade import: China versus India China is among the largest importers of three main bulk products – iron ore, grain and coal. Iron ore is the dry bulk cargo with the largest activity worldwide representing almost 30% of the total seaborne trade. China is by far the largest importer of iron ore in the world, importing USD 75 billion (65.3% of total iron ore imports). India is responsible for the import of $1 billion (0.9%) iron ore. The vast difference is evident. India is ahead of China with respect to coal import. While India’s share stands at $24.6 billion (16.2%) of the coal import, China’s share in the total coal imports is $19.6 billion (12.9%). The difference, admittedly, is not very large. In terms of wet trade, Asian countries accounted for the highest dollar worth of imported crude oil during 2018 with purchases costing $628.2 billion or 53.2% of the global total. The leaders among them are India and China. While China is responsible for US$239.2 billion (20.2% of total crude oil imports), India imported $114.5 billion (9.7%) of crude oil in 2018. The sole increase from 2014 to 2018 among the above top countries was the 4.8% gain for the People’s Republic of China. Again, the vast difference in the import data between both the countries is evident. The influence of China to the dry bulk market can be ascertained from the fact that dry market plummeted prior to recovery just before the Chinese new year. This is mostly attributed to the positive sentiments of traders on the

▪ May-June 2019

India has realized that by developing and enhancing the maritime sector, there can be a significant growth in trade, and has hence invested in the Sagarmala project. A total of 12 coastal economic regions with an estimated investment of Rs 12 lakh crore will be developed. These will lead to the development of manufacturing hubs, supported by port modernization projects and tremendous employment opportunities

improvement of demand in China. The volume of raw material import is directly related to the industrial production in the country. The slowdown in Chinese production led to the fall in bulk dry market, from which it is still recovering.

Strong maritime ties will benefit both economies India and China can both benefit through the improvement of maritime trade between the two countries. India is among the topmost trading partners of China, with imports of goods worth USD 72 billion. China imports USD 12 billion of goods from India, most of it via sea. The volume of trade between the two countries suggests that both the nations will benefit with the improvement of maritime trade between them. From the above trade figures, it can be clearly derived that the trade deficit between India and China is high. This gap can be covered by way of boosting of maritime trade from the Indian side. India has started investing in maritime infrastructure, but much needs to be done. India can seek assistance and guidance from China to improve its national maritime fleet as well as development of ports as well as inland waterways. At present, iron ore is Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s major export product to China. The export potential can be explored in a large range of products like marine produce, oil seeds, salt, inorganic chemicals, plastic, rubber, optical and medical equipment, and dairy products. Coal export can be enhanced by opening the Indian coal mines to China. At present, the majority of the coal imported to China originates from Australia or Indonesia. This export can be diverted from India to China. By improving their mutual maritime relationship, both nations can benefit substantially. This can lead to the development of port infrastructure for India and export potential from India to China. ď ą

May-June 2019 â&#x2013;Ş

SCO SUMMIT ANALYSIS

INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS through the Prism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 2019

From left: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kazakh President KassymJomart Tokayev, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Emomali Rahmon, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and others pose for a photo prior to a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State in Bishkek in June 2019 Photo courtesy: Livemint

â&#x2013;Ş May-June 2019

 Dr. Teshu Singh

he Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a permanent inter-governmental international organization created in 2001. It was preceded by the Shanghai Five mechanism. The official languages of the organization are Russian and Chinese. The Heads of State Council is the supreme decision-making body and meets once a year. The Heads of Government also meet once a year to discuss the organization’s multilateral cooperation strategy and priority areas, to resolve current important economic and other cooperation issues and also to approve the annual budget. SCO has two permanent bodies, namely the SCO Secretariat in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in Tashkent. The organization has eight members and four observers. The members are India, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russian and Pakistan. The four observers are Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia. The charter of the SCO was signed in 2002 and came into force in 2003. It is a statutory document that outlines the structures and core activities of the organization. The SCO meeting in Astana in 2017 was an important landmark for the organization, in which India was granted full membership. The main goal of the organization is to strengthen mutual trust among member states, their cooperation in politics, trade, economy research, technology and culture, as well as in education, energy, transport, tourism, environment protection, and other areas; making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region; and moving towards the establishment of a democratic, fair and rational new international political and economic order.

The Bishkek Declaration This year the members came out with a 15 page declaration, which was divided into

six parts. The member states condemned terrorism in all forms and manifestations. They emphasized on the role of the United Nations by fully implementing the UNSC resolution and UN Global Counter Strategy, and condemned weaponization of space in any form. On Afghanistan, they stated that one of the vital factors for stability in the SCO space will be a settlement of the situation in Afghanistan. The member states stressed that there is no alternative to settle the conflict in Afghanistan except through political dialogue and an inclusive peace process which is led by Afghans themselves. They emphasized upon the need to step up cooperation of all the nations concerned and also of international organizations, with the central coordinating role of the UN for the stabilization and development of Afghanistan. In this context, vital importance was given to further interaction in five multilateral formats including the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, the Moscow format consultations and others. On Syria, the member states said the way ahead for Syria settlement was through dialogue on the basis of ensuring sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the country. They advocated for UN Security Council Resolution 2254, promoting political settlement by Syrian themselves. The members stressed the significance of continued international efforts to assist Syria in the post-conflict restoration of the country. They reaffirmed the importance of the SCO antidrug Operation Spider Web to be held at the initiative of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The members insisted on improving the architecture of global economic governance, deepening cooperation through WTO, opposed fragmentation of global trade and trade protectionism. Besides the declaration, 14 agreements were signed by the council of Head of States, and some cooperation agreements between SCO and United Nations specialized agencies. PM Modi along

Dr. Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)

PM Modi propounded the acronym HEALTH (H for healthcare cooperation, E for economic cooperation, A for alternative energy, L for literature and culture, T for terrorism–free society and H for humanitarian cooperation). The overall message India conveyed was that it would like to see very positive content in the SCO process May-June 2019 ▪

SCO SUMMIT ANALYSIS

19th SCO Summit The 19th SCO Summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on June 13-14 June. Notably, this was the second meeting of India as a full member, and first after PM Modi’s re-election. In his speech, PM Modi expounded on India’s vision in the SCO. He explained the importance of connectivity in the region and emphasized that the basis of initiative should be respect for sovereignty, regional integrity, good governance, transparency, practically and reliability. He stated the importance of a stable Afghanistan. In an endeavour to carve out a template for collaboration, he propounded the acronym HEALTH (H for healthcare cooperation, E for economic cooperation, A for alternative energy, L for literature and culture, T for terrorism–free society and H for humanitarian cooperation). The overall message India conveyed was that it would like to see very positive content in the SCO process. In 2017, PM Modi had floated an equally vibrant concept of SECURE (S for security for citizens, E for economic development, C for connectivity in the region, U for unity, R for Respect of sovereignty and integrity, and E for environment protection).

▪ May-June 2019

with Kyrgyz President Sooranbay Jeenbekov inaugurated the first meeting of India-Kyrgyz Business Forum. PM Modi also announced a USD 200 million line of credit to Kyrgyzstan. A five-year road map was prepared to increase bilateral trade. He declared that India and Kyrgyzstan have discussed the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement and the Bilateral Investment Treaty. PM Modi stated that “at a time when the world economy is rapidly changing, we need to look at the opportunities of the economic partnership between the two countries”. PM Modi said there are three catalysts for the growth of the bilateral trade and investment opportunities. These are a proper atmosphere, connectivity and businessto-business exchanges.

Bilateral Talks Apart from the summit, PM Modi held bilateral talks with China, Russia, Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan. A pull-aside meeting was held with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. At the India-China bilateral meeting, both leaders reviewed the overall bilateral relationship. They came to the consensus that a new momentum in the bilateral relationship has been established since the Wuhan Summit. Strategic communication has improved, as a result of which issues such as the opening of the Bank

of China in India and listing of Masood Azhar in the 1267 sanction committees of UN has been possible. Discussion was also held on trade on the boundary issue. PM Modi took cognizance of the fact that there has been some simplification of the regulatory process on the export of non-Basmati rice, sugar, certain agricultural products, pharmaceuticals from India to China and expressed the desire that there should be more export from India to China. On the Special Representative, both the leader instructed that they should expedite the talks towards achieving a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary issue. It was also discussed that the 70th year of the bilateral relationship will be celebrated in both countries. PM Modi proposed that to mark the occasion, both the countries should hold 70 important events, 35 each in India and China. Additionally, the Conference of Interaction and Confidence Building Measure in Asia (CICA) conference was attended by the External Affair Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar in Dushanbe on June 15, 2019. He enunciated India’s vision for the 21st century and said India supports a rule-based order in Asia, as in the rest of the world. The region confronts unavoidable challenges such as terrorism, conflicts, trans-national crimes and

This was the first SCO meeting against the background of the US-China trade war, and at the moment SCO appears to be a Chinadominated organization. In fact, even before the meeting, China had issued statements indicating that the meeting is not aimed at “targeting” any country. Clearly, the indication was towards India and Pakistan differences that had increased post-Balakot attack Photo courtesy Business Today

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SCO SUMMIT ANALYSIS

maritime threats. He emphasized that there are also issues of sustainable development including the lack of energy security, low intra-regional trade and deficit of connectivity. These must be urgently remedied for our common good. He reiterated that ‘Terrorism’ in any form is unacceptable. On Afghanistan, he said that India supports national peace and reconciliation process that is Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. He highlighted India’s support for regional connectivity initiatives that are inclusive, sustainable, have transparency

and respect the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity that can boost trade and can bring prosperity in the region. He also stressed India’s participation in the regional organization and showed the similarity between India’s SAGAR (Security and growth for all in the Region) with that of the theme of the summit “Shared Vision for a Secure and more Prosperous CICA Region”.

India-China Relations and the SCO This was the first SCO meeting against

the background of the US-China trade war and at the moment SCO appears to be a China-dominated organisation. In fact, even before the meeting, China had issued statements indicating that the meeting is not aimed at “targeting” any country. Clearly, the indication was towards India and Pakistan differences that had increased post-Balakot attack. During the entire incident of Balakot China had squarely supported Pakistan. China issued much-calibrated statements that did not mention Pakistan at all. The growing China-Pakistan nexus is a major

Member states stressed that there is no alternative to settle the conflict in Afghanistan except through political dialogue and an inclusive peace process which is led by Afghans themselves. They emphasized upon the need to step up cooperation of all the nations concerned and also of international organizations, with the central coordinating role of the UN for the stabilization and development of Afghanistan

▪ May-June 2019

Courtesy The Hindu

Prime Minister Modi speaking at the SCO Summit in Bishkek in June 2019 Photo courtesy: DNA India

irritant in India-China bilateral relations. In fact, in order to reach Bishkek, PM Modi preferred the Iran and Oman air route over the Pakistan route. China had sideline talks with India but not Pakistan. This indicates the difference in the approach of China while dealing with India and China. From the India-China bilateral relations perspective, the 19th SCO Summit was a substantive success. India took the opportunity to state its reservation on the Belt and Road Initiative and reiterated that connectivity projects should be transparent and inclusive, and

“territorial integrity” of countries should be respected. Under the umbrella of SCO India gets a chance to engage with countries of Central Asia. The President of Kyrgyzstan had attended the swearing-in ceremony of the PM Modi. This indicates India’s desire to increase its engagement with Central Asia. India’s entry in the organization is as an important development. Beside the multilateral talks, important bilateral meetings were also held in which economic cooperation were discussed both with China and Russia, highlighting the potential role for India in the region. 

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SOCIAL NETWORKS STRONG TIES

Economic boost through

UNITED INDIAN DIASPORA

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi during his public reception in Shanghai in 2015

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 Amit Waikar

he invitation to attend the swearing in ceremony of the Prime Minister and his Council of Ministers at New Delhi on May 30 has been one of the most cherished times of my life. It filled me with a happy, positive pride in our great nation. And personally, it was a deeply humbling experience. As I was flying from Shanghai to New Delhi on May 29, I realized that by inviting me to the

ceremony, my nation has placed great trust in me. With great trust comes great responsibility. In January 2019, I became the first Indian based in mainland China to be awarded the Pravasi Bharatiya Sammam Award. This invite for the Prime Minister’s swearing in at the Rashtrapati Bhawan was not an invite for me alone. It was an invite for the entire Indian diaspora in China, who have sought a living here and are deeply rooted in the love of their beloved nation India.

The fruits of PM Modi’s Shanghai visit The cherished association of the Indian community in China with Modi ji dates back to four years ago, when Modi ji visited Shanghai and mesmerized us all in the mammoth public reception organized in his honour. Speaking at the reception, Modi ji involved each and every Indian attending the event in the growth of our beloved nation. In many ways, Modi ji involved each Indian as a stakeholder in India’s growth story. He entrusted on each one of us the responsibility of attracting Chinese tourists to India. Modi ji said, “If every Indian here inspires seven Chinese to visit India and experience his beautiful homeland, we shall witness phenomenal growth in the number of India-bound Chinese tourists.” A large percentage of Indians who attended that event carried the message home. After Modi ji’s public reception in Shanghai, Indian associations have been formed in 12 cities across China. Before that event, only Shanghai had a formal Indian association. In this way, Modi ji is responsible for connecting the 70,000 plus Indian community in China. My visit for his swearing in was also to thank him for this great accomplishment. I call it a great accomplishment because before that, the 70,000 plus Indians

Amit Waikar is the first recipient of the Pravasi Bharatiya Samman Award from mainland China. He was conferred with the prestigious award in January 2019

The invite for the Prime Minister’s swearing in at the Rashtrapati Bhawan in May 2019 was not an invite for me alone. It was an invite for the entire Indian diaspora in China, who have sought a living here and are deeply rooted in the love of their beloved nation India May-June 2019 ▪

SOCIAL NETWORKS STRONG TIES

living in China were not connected. There was hardly any dialogue and cooperation between the Indian communities living in different cities. In a foreign land like China, we don’t account for large numbers. This connect was a vital aspect that was missing. It needed Modi ji’s vision to inspire community association among the Indians here, and for this strong connect to happen.

Economic boost through strong diaspora ties There is a wonderful recent example of how this connect is helping India and also the diaspora in China. In May this year, Vikrant Jawharkar, a leading community member from Yiwu called me. Yiwu was holding a mega imports fair. They had offered a special booth to Vikrant to showcase Indian products. He asked me what could be good products for him to showcase. I told him that we must showcase India’s famed alphonso mango pulp. As luck would have it, through specific efforts pursed last year, my company was able to get formal approval for the import of Indian alphonso mango pulp into China. We finalized showcasing the same for the major imports fair. Soon enough, hundreds of cans of alphonso mango pulp were on the way to Yiwu for the same. What a proud moment it was for me to see photographs of Chinese visitors at the Indian booth enjoying the most amazing flavor of alphonso mango pulp. All this would not have been possible without that one event in Shanghai four years ago where Modiji inspired us to come together.

Invite for PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, May 2019 There is another reason for me to be personally present at the swearing in ceremony. I had been closely following India’s election process for the last few months. At times the acrimonious allegations, the heated debates and accusations were a matter of concern for me, as I am sure they would have similarly concerned my fellow citizens in India. I realized that sometimes we fail to recognize and cherish the importance of the vibrant democracy that we have in our country. At the end of all that acrimony and a bitterly fought election, the will of the people prevailed and the Prime Minister and his council of ministers were formally sworn in. There are very few countries in the world where this is so easily possible. This was a moment for me to cherish the democracy of my motherland. I came for my country, as much as I came for my love for Modi ji.

Yoga can be given major push in China Another proud moment for the Indian community across China is that during the International Yoga Week celebrations, massive yoga sessions are organized in as many as 20 cities and provinces across China. To see thousands of Chinese celebrating the festival in a highly

▪ May-June 2019

Welcoming Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi during his visit to Shanghai in 2015

The author at Rashtrapati Bhawan in May 2019 for the swearing in of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi

After Modi ji’s public reception in Shanghai in 2015 and his call to all us Indians to be brand ambassadors for India, Indian associations were formed in 12 cities across China. Before that event, only Shanghai had a formal Indian association. Modi ji is responsible for connecting the 70,000 plus Indian community in China synchronized fashion at the instruction of Indian yoga teachers is a sight to behold. What a wonderful opportunity we have to further promote our yoga in this large country. When Modi ji came to Shanghai, he rightly said in his speech – One thing India can bring to China are our teachers. Modi ji said that India has for centuries been a land of gurus. The time has come for us to regain that position of imparting knowledge to the world.

With yoga become increasingly popular in China, it is surely possible for hundreds of yoga teachers from India to find gainful employment in China.

Promote Rishikesh as World Yoga Capital in Tourism Circuits Chinese tourists are headed in large numbers to Gaya, since it is part of the Buddhist tourism circuit. A large number of Chinese tourists go to Rajasthan to

experience India’s amazing cultural heritage. Rishikesh is now being recognized as one of the Yoga capitals of the world. There is high interest in China in the benefits of adopting yoga into one’s daily life. Hence, places in India which offer a rich experience of our yoga traditions and culture hold immense value as prominent tourist attractions for Chinese tourists. We will be able to attract a large number of Chinese tourists if we offer an integrated yoga circuit to them. As part of this effort, there should be a conscious and concentrated effort to promote Rishikesh alongside all the yoga campaigns that we initiate in China. I have learnt that Rishikesh now has high-end resorts for yoga tourists, and offers both short and long term programs for visitors to revitalize their mind, body and soul. This aspect of tourism is of high interest to the Chinese tourists. With greater affluence, the Chinese middle and upper middle class are looking for unique/varied experiences, and are not satisfied by run-of-the-mill tourist attractions. Places like Rishikesh and the backwaters of Kerala hold immense appeal to create these special tourist experiences, and tap into this huge tourism market from China. Even in my own home state of Maharashtra, I am aware of yoga and meditation centers in and around Nasik which have gained popularity among Indian tourists who are focused on health and wellness. Such quality centers across India should also find a place in the promotion of the Indian tourist map in China. The advantage is that these places offer an activity filled day to Chinese tourists. Tourists from China need to have a chock-a-block multi- activity filled day. They want a selfie moment every hour. These centers can offer all of this with their links with organic farming activities, yoga sessions, unique food experiences, bullock cart rides, rustic ambience, medicinal gardens and heritage spots.

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More Chinese engagement, greater mutual benefits Over the last many years, I have observed that the Chinese entrepreneurs who come to India to initiate some commercial activity gradually weave together more and more such areas of engagement. These activities are profitable for them and also for the host country. I know a young Chinese businessman who has accelerated his pace of engagement with India in the recent years. Initially, he focused on bringing Indian movies into China. Bollywood is his most abiding interest. He always amuses me with his photographs with Bollywood celebrities, taken whenever he visits Mumbai. After his Bollywood engagement, this entrepreneur got involved in promoting e-bikes in various cities in India. He is also involved in providing accessories

During the International Yoga Week celebrations, massive yoga sessions are organized in as many as 20 cities and provinces across China. Places in India which offer a rich experience of our yoga traditions and culture hold immense value as prominent tourist attractions for Chinese tourists

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for mobile phones. In a fourth area of interest, he is occupied with the promotion of solar technology in India. I know of many Chinese who have come to India, and have been enthused with the diversity of the Indian business world. It is natural for them to diversify their products and services, and get into multiple trade and business opportunities with their Indian counterparts. Likewise, I know of some Indian entrepreneurs who came to China with a single idea or product. They have now spread their wings and are directly involved in multiple products to bring back to India. My attempt with all these individuals, both Indian and Chinese, is to constantly keep pushing them on one single mantra. Make in India. I am blessed to be well-connected with the industrial development authorities in multiple states in India. I have been

working in China for many years, and I am always happy to provide lateral linkages in China to the government or non-government teams that come from India for positive and constructive work. In the last few years, I have seen many Chinese entrepreneurs who started their engagement in India by importing or selling their goods and services. The real impact happens only when they start localizing their production in India. In many places, all it needs is people like me to make the right connect with the relevant authorities in India for this activity to move ahead. Recently the leadership team from Ramoji Film City, Hyderabad visited China. It was a pleasure for me to facilitate their meetings and interactions here in Shanghai. The team spent a couple of days here and was able to benefit much with these linkages. They have gone back

Ramoji flim city team in Shanghai

Vikrant Jawharkar and a Chinese at the Indian stall organized by him at the Yiwu Trade Fair

with a strong desire to deepen their engagement with China, and also want to attract tourists from China at their wonderful Ramoji film city.

E-cars and e-scooters There are thousands of examples of deepening economic linkages and knowledge transfer between India and China. One such example is of an Indian entrepreneur based in Goa, who had started producing electric three-wheelers. The electric three-wheelers are being made with Chinese technology. The design and some of the critical parts are sourced from China. The chassis and the engine are manufactured in China. The other parts of utility in the e-three-wheelers are now being produced in India. The final assembling takes place in Goa. This is the gradual Make in India policy that we all must work for. India’s economic engagement with China is on the right track. It is wrong to

India’s economic engagement with China is on the right track. It is wrong to assume that India has allowed open to access to China to occupy a vast economic space within its markets without sharing of technology. There is always a technology transfer and knowledge sharing when Chinese goods and services find their way into India. As the Indian economy further strengthens, this sharing will be enhanced

assume that India has allowed open to access to China to occupy a vast economic space within its markets without sharing of technology. On the contrary, there is always a technology transfer and knowledge sharing in place when Chinese goods and services find their way into India. In the coming years, as the Indian economy further strengthens, this sharing will be enhanced. This will benefit India more than it benefits China. Xiaomi now produces phones in multiple southern Indian states, providing direct employment opportunities to thousands of fellow Indians. The other benefit is that India has access to some of the latest mobile phone technology that Xiaomi develops in China. The onus also rests on every Indian to try in his or her individual capacity to keep the slogan of ‘India First’ in mind. The expatriate Indians in all countries abroad can be amazing ambassadors of our ‘Incredible India’ initiative. 

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SCRUTINY CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL

THE

FUTURE OF

INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS

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Illustration courtesy china.org.cn

 Jayanta Ghosal

hina is the most exciting rising power in the world today. The explosive growth of China’s economy has made the People’s Republic a super power, dominant in Asia. The possibility that China may be the most influential country in this world can no longer be discounted. But China is not the only story in today’s global society. The Indian elephant is also reinventing itself. The spectacular victory in the recently concluded election of 2019 has placed Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a unique position to not only set the domestic agenda for India’s transformation, but also to spur India’s ongoing rise on the global stage. The 2019 mandate has increased Modi’s global stature, and looks set to positively impact India’s foreign policy choices and postures in the next five years. Now we can say that there will be continuity and consistency in Modi 2.0 foreign policy, and some features and tendencies seen in the first term will get accentuated and amplified. In this context, the future of India-China relations has become very important. Keeping India-China relations on an even keel and widening the scope and area of cooperation with the world’s secondlargest economy will remain among top foreign policy priorities for Modi 2.0. But what is the original perspective from Delhi and Beijing. Gautam Bambawale, who retired as India’s ambassador to China only a few months ago, gave an eight-fold path to upscale India-China ties. We can name it the new Astangik Marg.

The Astangik Marg in India-China ties Firstly, given the nature of China’s polity, which is highly centralised, it will continue to remain important to drive the relationship from top down. As a result, Gautam Bambawale argues that there should be an intense political interaction

that begins from the top leadership level and filters down to the ministerial level. For this, he argues, it will be necessary for an early visit to India from Chinese President Xi Jinping in the second half of 2019 to keep the momentum going from the WIS, along with ensuring that the momentum continues with the new government taking over. Whether the interaction between the two leaders remains informal is for the two sides to decide. But the informal setting offers some positives, especially the fact that it allows the leaders of the world’s two most populous nations to interact with each other over a significant period of time. Bambawale points out that such an exchange of views is significant, particularly among nations which need to build upon mutual trust. Secondly, it will be important to enhance military to military interaction and cooperation between the two countries. Currently, the exchange is mainly between the two armies of the countries, but it will be essential to expand this to the navies, which are increasingly crossing paths over the high seas. In this context, it is important to keep in mind the fact that China’s sea policy continues to be under controversy. Within this scenario, increased debate, interaction and naval exchange can only be beneficial. But such an exchange shouldn’t be limited to study visits, attending courses in each other’s military schools and perfunctory port calls. Instead these need to go beyond symbolism and must aim at getting a better understanding of the doctrine. The fact remains that this might not possible to achieve immediately. But both sides need to explore more visits along these lines to ensure a space of mutual trust and cooperation. Thirdly, it is essential to address the increasingly adverse balance of trade that India experiences with China. In this regard, Bambawale points out the need to directly speak to Chinese authorities

Jayanta Ghosal, Political Editor of India TV, has over 35 years of experience in journalism. Jayanta is an expert on foreign policy and security, particularly Bangladesh

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SCRUTINY CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL

regarding this. This is especially true in the case of Indian pharmaceutical products, particularly cheap formulations that Indian companies sell across world due to their competitive advantage. Also, India needs to look at the invisible part of balance of payment with China and work towards a focused effort at attracting more Chinese tourists to India. Marketing ‘Incredible India’ in China will be a first step. We can expect 1.5 million tourists from China to visit India by 2020.

services and the movement of natural persons, which is important for India. After Doklam, there was a major acrimony between the two nations. But by taking these steps, a platform can be created to ensure that a process of engagement between China and India starts. The general elections in India have now concluded. It is true that a situation where the two neighboring countries see eye-to-eye on each and every issue is unlikely. We shall continue to have

Technology. Garver is member of several editorials boards of journals specializing in Chinese politics and also on the National Committee on US-China relations. He identifies a major trend operating at the international-system level of analysis, which in turn deeply influenced the China policy of a newly independent India. First, the decisive victory of the Chinese Communist Party (CMP) in the China, and the establishment of the People’s Republic

The power of Bollywood and Yoga Fourthly, it is important to acknowledge and understand the implications of China’s rediscovery of Bollywood films. The success of offerings such as Dangal, Secret Superstar, Hindi Medium, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and AndhaDhun indicates that the Chinese audience will oscillate towards movies that have a strong theme, an excellent script and strong acting. Fifthly, in addition to films, another Indian export that is reaching out to millions of ordinary Chinese is Yoga. We must continue to promote Yoga in China and once again this is best done through the private sector. Bambawale says the Indian government could consider an effective policy that promotes this soft power export. Sixthly, it will be essential to engage with China in sports, where they are extremely strong. For instance, table tennis and gymnastics. Seventh: on global issues India has established the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in partnership with France, with its headquarters in India. Now that Japan and Saudi Arabia have joined the ISA, it is time to encourage China to participate in this important area of environmental policy, where we have no fundamental differences. Finally, the negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are now mainly between India and China. Bambawale notes that we must ensure that RCEP has a strong commitment in

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the ASEAN heads of state/governments and ASEAN Secretary General at the ASEAN India Commemorative Summit, in New Delhi. Photo courtesy: Deccan Herald/PTI

our differences, but the larger trend of cooperation between the two Asian neighbors will constitute the mainstream, given that each country continues to experience a near meteoric rise in the space of global politics and economy. The question of what India’s view of China is going to be, needs to be understood in the larger context of a potentially signficiant geopolitical shift that may take place with Indian PM Narendra Modi and US President Donald

Trump agreeing to a defence and security partnership between the US and India, one that is designed to ensure India’s dominance and counter China’s increased influence. But any conversation about India-China relations need to take into account the specific burden of history, and the origins of the two neighboring countries policies towards each other. John W. Garver is Professor Emeritus in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of

of China after a civil war as a LeninistStalinist style state that effectively united China for the first time in decades. That new Chinese state quickly eliminated the Tibetan buffer that had for centuries separated China and India. This in turn destroyed a central element of the China policy that India had inherited from the British. This is the reality. This is the background. It cannot be ignored.

the global scenario. Pakistan continues to get the support of China, but US president Donald Trump remains deeply skeptical about Pakistan. This stand has remained consistent over the past years and lies at the centre of his presidential style. It is true that the United States has taken a soft line towards the Taliban militant of Afghanistan – something that India’s is not happy with. But at the same time, the United States has taken a hard stance against Pakistan on

much making a great country greater, but to reinvigorate global practices towards a “Keep America First” approach. This, in particular, is targeted towards China, whose influence has been growing globally. The battle between the erstwhile Soviet-Russia and the US was a battle between two economic and political systems. A model driven by private players in the US, and a model with the state occupying centre-stage in the USSR. In India (and in China), the state has been

There will be continuity and consistency in Modi 2.0 foreign policy, and some features and tendencies seen in the first term will get accentuated and amplified. In this context, the future of India-China relations has become very important. Keeping India-China relations on an even keel and widening the scope and area of cooperation with the world’s secondlargest economy will remain among top foreign policy priorities for Modi 2.0

The India-China-Pakistan axis and the US factor After the 1962 war and then Doklam, there is a consistent mistrust of India towards its neighbor. But what should be the Indian doctrine? After the massive victory of the Modi-led BJP government the second time, China is also understanding that solely relying on a pro-Pakistan axis may not be complimentary for India. The Indian government has successfully isolated Pakistan from other countries in

the issue of terrorism. Trump was ready to announce that Azhar Masood was a global terrorist, but the US has always been a great diplomatic bargainer. Now, in recent Modi-Trump bilateral talks, the US has demanded from India that the high tax-tag from American imported goods must be removed in India markets. In diplomacy, quid-pro-quo remains very important. US President Donald Trump’s slogan of ‘Make America Great Again’ needs to be re-understood. It is not so

reluctant to let go of the control it holds. But increasingly China has realised the need for more entrepreneurs like Jack Ma and Ren Zhengfei, in a bid to ensure that the country escapes the obstacles put before it by the US. Mao had two key principles. One that China always wins over its foes and secondly, that this battle would not be easy or short. This has dictated their policy and continues to do so. Today, China is willing for just such a battle.

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SCRUTINY CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL The Beijing Model is working towards challenging the Washington Consensus. After China overtakes the US in terms of GDP, the consequences for US soft power will be immense. In particular, the dollar will be impacted. That would mean that US companies can no longer set the terms of engagement with foreign companies, the way they have been doing since 1945. Now with the US emerging as the prime challenger to Xi Jinping’s ‘Chinese Dream’, China has once again found in Moscow, a valuable ally. Putin and

India needs to look at the invisible part of balance of payment with China and work towards a focused effort at attracting more Chinese tourists to India. Marketing ‘Incredible India’ in China will be a first step. We can expect 1.5 million tourists from China to visit India by 2020 Xi Jinping are forming a Sino-Russian alliance that looms over Europe and Asia. Both countries are looking to draw India into this grouping to ensure that a Washington-Delhi axis doesn’t form. There is one view of a “balancing act” between the two superpowers China and the US, but such attempts come with risks. The most important thing for India is the need to isolate Pakistan, but on China the approach has to be different. India’s foreign policy has been that acrimony

▪ May-June 2019

on both fronts – Pakistan and China – should not be opened. In the post Kargil War scenario, then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee told his defence minister George Fernandez not to attack China again. A few days before this, Fernandez had attacked China and described the nation as India’s “greatest enemy”. Vajpayee had argued that it would be foolish to open two fronts simultaneously. China is a mature nation. It has never stopped trade talks or suspended diplomatic relations with any country in

of thought that there may be a change of diplomacy from old days, since China is now developing a new expansionist policy. This seems to be a global trend. Putin is also doing the same, but China’s style is more serious. So India also developed a combative policy on China. Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and a few other states have become strong allies for India to create a balance of power. For China, the Samudra Manthan strategy may be effective.

Chinese tourists enjoying Holi, the Indian festival of colours Photo courtesy: chinesetourists.wordpress.com

spite of border disputes. For board talk, each side has its emissaries. India-China talks have always continued since the 1962 war. It is not accidental that in spite of Xian - the traditional heart of China being visited by leaders like US Presidents Bush and Obama, the only pictures that adorn the City Wall are those of Xi and Modi. With shifting geopolitics, India is extremely important for China. With regard to Bhutan’s territorial area and Doklam, there is a new phenomenon of Chinese diplomacy. There is a school

Contest over territory, status and position in Asia China-India relations can broadly be thought of in four phases. The first, which began with India’s independence in 1947 and lasted until the Dalai Lama’s dramatic escape into exile in India in 1959. Factors at the individual level greatly shaped India’s approach towards China, since India’s foreign and security policy was single-handedly dominated by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. In the second phase, which lasted from 1962’s Sino-

Indian war, domestic politics also influenced India’s policy towards China as the Indian Parliament pressured Nehru to take a more assertive approach towards China. Nevertheless, Nehru remained firmly in charge during this period as well. The third phase was dominated by systemic factors. The third phase lasted from India’s defeat in 1962 until Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s trip to China in 1988. During this period, India aligned with the United States and then with the former Soviet Union to balance China’s

India border issues. The Gilgit-Baltistan region, considered by New Delhi as a part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, shares border with China. PLA has ensured the presence of several thousand of troops in this region of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. On the other side, India’s Act East policy is a cause of concern for China. So both countries are engaged in a complex rivalry that involves a contest both over territory and over status and position in Asia. In April 2018, the seminal Wuhan

two leaders were free to decide how long to dwell on any one subject or in what direction a particular conservation was to be taken. Hence India and China, which gave the world the Panchsheel or five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence in the 1950s, have once again contributed to the diplomatic practice in the 21st century. Recently, at the G-20 Summit in Japan, on the sidelines of a meeting of the two countries once again agreed that trade talks will begin. For now, there is hope again. 

In addition to films, another Indian export that is reaching out to millions of ordinary Chinese is Yoga. We must continue to promote Yoga in China and once again this is best done through the private sector Freshmen of the India-China Yoga College of Yunnan Minzu University practise yoga in Kunming, southwest China’s Yunnan Photo courtesy: Xinhuanet.com

power. On the other hand, China aligned with Pakistan during this period. China also received tacit backing from the US after 1971 in its security competition with India and the Soviet Union. In the fourth phase, which began in 1988 and continues till date, it is a combination of systemic and domestic level factors that have influenced India’s approach towards China. The threat of China’s rising power and the China-Pakistan alignment have been constant during this phase. The Pakistan factor also impacts Sino-

Informal Summit took place between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This showed that the leaders of the two countries can move informally without the bells and whistles of international protocol demands. That informal meeting was significant. The two countries had agreed to the informal meeting as both wanted to give their leaders adequate time and space to talk over issues and topics of their choice. There was some coordination on the broad subjects that would be covered beforehand, but the

REFERENCES

The Dragon and the Foreign Devils: China and the World, 1100 BC to the Present, by Harry B Gelber Engaging the World: Indian Foreign Policy Since 1947 (Page 167), by Manjeet S. Pardesi “Evolution of India’s China Policy” in India’s Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect, by John W Garber (Page 83) India’s Foreign Policy (1947-2003), by JN Dixit Beyond Wuhan: Eight Steps to Upscale India-China Ties in India and World — Modi 2.0: Diplomacy for a New India, by Gautam Bambawale

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SINO-INDIA FRIENDLY RELATIONS

CHINA-INDIA PLUS

A new model of cooperation 44

â&#x2013;ª May-June 2019

 Ashok Bhan

rime Minister Narendra Modi has led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to a huge victory in the recent elections. He is the leader of the new government for another five years – leader of both the external and internal dimensions of our country. Prime Minister Modi’s vision of IndiaChina relations has been full of positivity and optimism since first took oath for the PM’s office in 2014. His consistent agenda has been to strengthen the relationship further and deepen trust between the two countries despite hiccups like the standoff at Doklam, and Chinese incursions in Ladakh.

PM Modi keen that India-China work, grow together In May, the Prime Minister articulated his assessment of the India-China relationship in The Indian Express, a leading national daily in the following words: “The Azhar blacklisting is the result of a global consensus against terror and it would be unfair to reduce it to a Chinacentric issue. China is also part of the countries across the world concerned about terror. The India-China relationship is one of mutual respect. When the world is speaking of this century being Asia’s century, they are speaking of the rise of both China and India becoming the powers they used to be historically. So, we are working together, with the knowledge that we are both focusing on growth. Even if there are some differences, both the countries understand there is a lot we agree upon as well”. PM Modi’s agenda for his next five years is to make India the third-largest economy in the world. Some geo-political analysts say that he is aiming for India in the second place globally as a military, economic and diplomatic superpower. In this context, China becomes an important partner for PM Modi’s big vision. Given the synergy between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President

Xi Jinping, India will wish to proceed to strengthen our mutual partnerships across diverse sectors of the economy. In addition to the component of economic cooperation, India and China may also work on closer people-to-people interaction. The idea is to make our shared ties more vibrant and strong in the times to come. India and China are two very populous countries with ancient civilizations. Friendship between the two civilizations has a time-honoured history, which can be dated back to about 2,000 years. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties between our two countries, in particular during the last ten years, friendship and cooperation has made significant progress despite challenges. Since the introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China’s economy is among the fastest-growing in the world, with annual growth rates consistently above 6 per cent. According to World Bank, China’s GDP grew from $150 billion in 1978 to $12.24 trillion by 2017. Since 2010, China has been the world’s secondlargest economy by nominal GDP. Since 2014, it has been rated the largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity (PPP). China is also the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer of goods. China is a recognized nuclear weapons state. It boasts of the world’s largest standing army and second-largest defense budget.

Surviving the diplomatic chill between India and China People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, as well as an active global partner of the ASEAN Plus mechanism. China is also a leading member of numerous formal and informal multilateral organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), WTO, APEC, BRICS, BCIM, and the G20. China has been widely accepted as a global superpower rivaling the United States.

Ashok Bhan is Senior Advocate, Supreme Court of India and a geo-political analyst

Given the synergy between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, India will wish to proceed to strengthen our mutual partnerships across diverse sectors of the economy. In addition to the component of economic cooperation, India and China may also work on closer people-to-people interaction. The idea is to make our shared ties more vibrant and strong in the times to come May-June 2019 ▪

SINO-INDIA FRIENDLY RELATIONS

Looking back on history after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India for nearly 70 years, the five-point guiding agenda for Peaceful Co-existence was arrived at between Premier Zhou Enlai and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Their bonhomie included exchanges of visits and attending the Bandung Conference etc. After the border conflict in 1962, China-India relations fell into a “frozen period”. It was not until Labour Day in 1970 that Chairman Mao Zedong, after shaking hands with Brajesh Mishra, then Charge d’Affaires of the Indian Embassy in China at the Tian’anmen Rostrum, said: “We cannot keep on quarrelling like this. We should try and be friends again.” In 1988, then Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi started his “ice-breaking visit” to China, and both sides reached a consensus to delink the boundary question from the overall development of bilateral relations.

The stabilizer in India-China relations Managing differences is the “stabilizer”. China-India relations have been disturbed by differences and problems from time to time. The “negative list” includes issues left by history such as boundary disputes and differences over the Dalai Lama. The list also has emerging issues such as the listing issue of the UN Security Council 1267 Committee. Some third-party factors such as Pakistan, the United States and South Asia have implications for China-India relations as well. China and India have successfully resolved the issues of Tibet and Sikkim through consultation and dialogue. In 2018, a major stand-off at Doklam was diplomatically resolved.

Doklam stand-off impacted investor sentiment The June 2017 Doklam stand-off strained the China-India relationship. It impacted the normalcy and positivity of relations between the two countries. Apprehensive after the severe tensions lasted over

▪ May-June 2019

dian economy rising again. In May 2018, the two countries agreed to coordinate their development programs in Afghanistan in the areas of health, education and food security.

Beijing support for Masood Azhar pained India A decade-long dampener in the IndiaChina relationship was Beijing’s persistent refusal to not allow the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to declare Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. Earlier this year, the resolution was moved by the US, France and the United Kingdom under the 1267 Al-Qaeda sanctions committee. Its supporters included Australia, Japan, and the South Asian Association of Regional

An Indian soldier and a Chinese soldier at the Nathu La Business Channel for India-China Border Trade Photo courtesy CGTN

Co-operation (SAARC) members Bhutan, Bangladesh and the Maldives. China’s move to veto the listing of Masood Azhar was inconsistent with its own goals of combating terrorism and fostering stability in the South Asian region. Notwithstanding the agreements of coordination, for an inordinately long period China had persisted with her support to Pakistan on the Masood Azhar listing. Public sentiment in India vis-à-vis China was low on the Masood Azhar issue. India was understandably disappointed over China’s delay over the listing of Masood Azhar. The ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that it would “pursue all available avenues” to bring to justice the terrorist leaders involved in the attack on Indians. China’s hard stance was

not entirely unexpected. Among the general populace domestically, it was considered it a slap to India’s face after Pulwama bloody suicide-bombing in Kashmir. It raised serious questions about the benefits of Prime Minister Modi’s photo-op diplomacy with Xi Jinping. During the period that China opposed the listing of Masood Azhar, it came under severe criticism from nations that had supported the move. Diplomats of leading countries also slammed Pakistan for depending on China to protect terrorist groups and leaders that operate from its soil. In the past too, Pakistan has depended on China to protect it from the listing of terrorist groups and individuals based on its soil in the UN’s (1267) sanctions committee.

With China finally agreeing to the listing of Masood Azhar, this matter was finally laid to rest. But the overall trust deficit vis-à-vis China will not be bridged by another friendly stroll through Wuhan or Varanasi. Any move by Beijing which supports Pakistan on its terror-sponsoring activities will bring to the fore the trust deficit, and escalate the tension between India and China. Prime Minister Modi has again made strategic moves in normalizing the relationship with China. Chinese investments are flowing into India, benefitting both China and India. But the Indian public will take time to bridge the lack of trust vis-à-vis China, caused by its support to Pakistan on terror. Over the last ten years, China had blocked four bids to get Masood Azhar listed as a United Nations (UN)-designated global terrorist. Ironically, China was the only country to oppose Masood Azhar’s listing as an international terrorist at the UNSC. The public opinion in India after China’s stand was that this was an act of irresponsibility by a major power. Subsequently, the international and also Indian media raised questions about China’s suitability to play a constructive part in regional and world affairs, including in Afghanistan, which shares its border with China and Pakistan, and where a peace deal is being sought with the Taliban to pave the way for the withdrawal of US troops from that country. All across the globe including India, foreign policy experts agreed that China was playing a dangerous game. Foreign policy experts also agreed that Beijing’s strategic move to contain India with Pakistan’s help was understandable. But using the instrumentality of terrorism was unacceptable not only to India but to the whole world. Finally China fell in line after realizing that she cannot antagonize the world community on the question of war and peace, especially terrorism. China’s stand was seen as an example of woolly and wooden-headed diplomacy in the present dynamics of international

May-June 2019 ▪

SINO-INDIA FRIENDLY RELATIONS

China-India relations have experienced ups and downs. From the perspective of peak-valley fluctuation model, the fluctuation interval is getting shorter and shorter. This shows the sensitivity, maturity and adaptability of China-India relations. The past seven decades of our relationship have proved that friendly cooperation, which has dominated most of the time, is the general trend and the mainstream. It is also far more prominent than differences and frictions relations. Evidently, China did not share this global assessment.

Growing sensitivity, maturity and adaptability in China-India relations In recent years, India and China have been exploring the “China-India Plus” – a new model of cooperation. Both countries have successfully carried out a joint

▪ May-June 2019

training program for Afghan diplomats. It should be the direction of efforts for China and India to enhance mutual trust, enlarge cooperation cakes and narrow down the divergence. China-India relations have experienced ups and downs. From the perspective of peak-valley fluctuation model, the fluctuation interval is getting shorter and shorter. This shows the sensitivity, ma-

turity and adaptability of China-India relations. The past seven decades of our relationship have proved that friendly cooperation, which has dominated most of the time, is the general trend and the mainstream. It is also far more prominent than differences and frictions. People-to-people exchanges are the “adhesive” for bilateral relations. In 1981, China and India resumed yatra for official Indian pilgrims to Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar in Tibet, China. The two countries have established over 10 pairs of sister cities or provinces, and personnel exchanges have exceeded one million. The total number of Indian students studying in China is over 20,000. Chinese food, acupuncture, martial arts and movie stars are increasingly popular in India. Yoga, Darjeeling tea and Bollywood are fashionable among Chinese youth. Yunnan Minzu University of China became the first university out of India to award a Master’s degree in yoga. If the India-China relationship has to flourish in sync with the Prime Minister’s vision, the MEA will have to continue with its efforts to transcend crisis-managing diplomacy. Stewarded by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar during his stint as Foreign Secretary, India has sought a model to actively shape relations and break the cycle of downers in bilateral relations with China. Regarding vision, India needs to be guided by cooperation in four key areas. These are negotiating and signing the “China-India Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation”, exploring free trade agreements, initiating consultations on early harvests of the boundary question, and achieving synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative. Analysts believe that as two ancient civilizations, China and India have the ability and wisdom to find the path for major emerging and neighbouring countries to get along with each other, join hands to realise the “Dragon-Elephant Tango,” create the Asian century, and achieve greater glory in the near future. 

REVIEW DECODING THE DRAGON

 Maj Gen Pushpendra Singh (retd)

CHINA An enigma wrapped in a riddle 50

▪ May-June 2019

hurchill described Russia as ‘a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’. Nowadays, it is the Chinese riddle that everyone is striving to solve. Its key is the same as Russia’s - national interest above all else. From its foundation in 1949, the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) began securing its ‘homeland core’. They swiftly seized control over outlying buffers like Xinjiang and Tibet. During the Korean War, when the Americans approached the Yalu River, China’s ultra-sensitivity to the North Korean buffer sparked its massive intervention and repulsed them south of the 38th parallel.

China’s Rise China’s visionary leader Deng Xiaoping first synergized military and governance by combining Chairmanship over Central Military Commission (CMC) with CCP General Secretary and President. Thus, his successors had the benefit of extensive exposure to Military Affairs before assuming control over Party, Government

and CMC. However, Xi Jinping is the first to hold all three from the very beginning. He is a firm believer in the Mao dictum: Power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Therefore, in the next decade we could face China’s velvetcloaked iron fist – such as the Depsang intrusion in 2013 and Chumar in 2014. The latter coincided with Xi Jinping’s visit to Gujarat to meet PM Modi. Deng instituted the four modernizations which catapulted PRC to a world-power in just 20-odd years. Nevertheless, while China’s galloping economy was racing to world-leadership, Deng advised tao guang yang hui. Hide your strength; bide your time. Hence by September 2008, when the sub-prime crisis hit USA, China held the largest share of US sovereign debt at $618 billion. Now Hu Jintao sensed that the Middle Kingdom’s rise was unassailable. He shed tao guang yang hui. China began flexing diplomatic and military muscles. The Dragon overrode international norms in national interest. It did so selectively, only when it suited them.

As the super-charged economy’s appetite for energy and mineral resources swelled, Chinese strategists extended her strategic frontiers in phases. First, they laid claim to the oil-rich continental shelf, comprising the North Pacific adjacent to Japan and Russia, Taiwan Straits, and the East and South China seas right up to the Straits of Malacca – disregarding international law on freedom of the seas, to which they are signatories. Later, when China began exploiting Africa, they cast their nets to include the Middle East. In December 2008 a Chinese naval task force unilaterally sailed into the Indian Ocean for antipiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. R Admiral Yin Zhou then proposed that PLAN (Peoples’ Liberation Army - Navy) set up a permanent base in the Gulf of Aden to support these operations. In January 2009 Huang Kunlun, writing in Liberation Daily, articulated the theory of boundless national interests: ‘Wherever our national interests have extended so will the mission of our armed forces’. By April that year, during PLAN’s

Maj General Pushpendra Singh (retd) is a graduate of Staff College, Wellington and the Kalinin Military Academy, St Petersburg, where he graduated on the Higher Command Course with distinction. He was General Officer Commanding (GOC) for the Bihar and Orissa region when the super-cyclone struck Orissa in 1999, and coordinated the rescue and relief efforts which saved hundreds of lives. On retirement, he was appointed Director General Disaster Management by the Madhya Pradesh government, and participated in the formulation of National Disaster Management Policy. He has written extensively on defence and security issues in various newspapers and defence Journals. He is also the author of an acclaimed novel about Sant Banda Singh Bahadur’s reconquest of Punjab, The Hawk Hunters

REVIEW DECODING THE DRAGON

international fleet review, a Chinese Senior Admiral told US Admiral Keating, ‘Why don’t you take Hawaii East and we’ll take Hawaii West and the Indian Ocean’. PLA’s modernization was taken up as a national endeavour with special emphasis on its 2nd Artillery Forces and, for the first time in Chinese history, transforming PLAN into a blue-water force. Accordingly, the military budget remained consistently above 10 per cent of GDP for over three decades. With its economy booming, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) PLA developed into a well-equipped, modern and formidable military in five dimensions – land, air, sea, space and cyber-space. While it is well capable of facing up to USA, PLA also developed an Indiarelevant doctrine for ‘winning short duration local wars under high-tech conditions.’

India Falters India started-off greatly hamstrung by the first prime minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s total lack of strategic sense. In September 1947, the Commanderin-Chief (C-in-C) General Lockhart sought the government’s approval for a defense directive. ‘We don’t need a defense plan. Our policy is ahimsa; we foresee no military threats.’ Nehru told the astonished Britisher. “The police are adequate for our security.” Only weeks later, the Army had to be rushed in to save Kashmir. But Nehru remained unfazed. When the Army was on the verge of completely routing Pakistani invaders from J&K, he stopped operations and went instead to the UN; creating a security nightmare that bedevils us till date. The British had striven to bolster Tibetan autonomy to reinforce the buffer with China. On 7th Nov 1950 Sardar Patel warned Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru about China’s inimical intentions, barely a month after they had invaded Tibet. Ignoring Sardar Patel, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru conceded China’s sovereignty over Tibet. In January 1951,

▪ May-June 2019

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping

In 2018, 30 percent of the worlds nominal GDP was generated east of the Suez, with China contributing about half of this figure. The Dragon’s rise, along with that of Japan, India and Indonesia heralds an epochal shift of relative economic and military power from the West to East. Russia as a Eurasian power straddles both the worlds, but a hostile USA and Europe have pushed it closer to China Photo courtesy: China Daily

the Assam government received reports about Chinese armed incursions across the Tibetan border and requested the Commander-in-Chief General Cariappa to staunch the threat. But Pandit Nehru chided him. ‘It is not the business of the C-in-C to tell the PM who is going to attack us where. In fact the Chinese will defend our NEFA Frontier. You mind only Kashmir and Pakistan.’ In 1952 Pandit Nehru downgraded the India Mission’s status at Lhasa to a consulategeneral and later withdrew military

later, thereby completely marginalizing the Services and triggering the 1962 debacle.

India’s Reforms

China continues to subtly oppose India’s rise, even as India stumbles its way forward. To that end, China has befriended Pakistan. It has tied the Islamic Republic securely to itself with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China encourages Pakistan to keep India tied down to South Asia with terrorist strikes by ‘non-state actors’, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) escorts at the trade posts at Yatung, Gyantse and Gartok. All this without seeking any reciprocity or assurances on the boundary! Then in a volte-face, in July 1954 Pandit Nehru ordered the Secretary General of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to reprint British-era maps depicting unambiguous Indo-Tibet boundaries. These became the government’s basis for negotiating the boundary question. However, Pandit Nehru did not consider it necessary to equip the Army for the

defense of these newly described borders. Thus India came to know about the road through Aksai Chin, 200 km within our area, only through a Chinese magazine article in 1957. The neglect of the Armed Forces and their demoralization under Pandit Nehru’s close ally Krishna Menon’s acid tongue culminated in the humiliation of the 1962 war with China. Pandit Nehru announced to the media that he had asked the Army ‘to throw the Chinese out!’ But the Army Chief was informed

The 1962 shock induced India to rebuild its military. This was soon tested by Pakistan’s attempt to take Kashmir, believing that they could do 1962-redux. The Indian Army, though it was still rebuilding, proved that they could more than stand up to latest Americansupplied Patton tanks and Sabre jets. Pakistan lost 1840 sq km of territory against 540 sq km that it held at ceasefire. In addition, Pakistan lost about a 100 Patton tanks and scores of Sabre jets were destroyed by the Indian forces. Indian military supremacy was also emphatically restated by the 1967 Indo-Chinese clash in Sikkim, where the Chinese suffered a bloody nose. This was capped by the liberation of East Pakistan and taking 93,000 Pakistani prisoners of war.

Guns and butter are compatible There is a myth that ‘guns and butter’ are mutually exclusive. In fact, in the early 1970s, Emile Benoit found that military expenditure up to about 4% of GDP actually spurs economic growth rates in developing economies. Nevertheless, after the 1971 war ‘butter’ issues were cited to curtail defence budgets. With this, the decline of Indian military capability visà-vis the Chinese recommenced. Postliberalization, India’s economic rise and the reset of diplomatic relations with US has placed the nation among the major powers, though not quite at the high table as yet.

China stymies India’s rise China continues to subtly oppose India’s rise, even as India stumbles its way forward. To that end, China has befriended Pakistan. It has tied the Islamic Republic securely to itself with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China encourages Pakistan to keep India tied down to South Asia with terrorist strikes by ‘non-state actors’,

May-June 2019 ▪

REVIEW DECODING THE DRAGON

particularly in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). It has denied India entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Only recently, China lifted its objections to designating Hafiz Saeed a global terrorist, after it was cornered and isolated at UNSC. In 2017, the Chinese faced Indian troops, who contested their building a road through Bhutanese territory through Doklam to the Jampheri ridge. This road would have threatened our vulnerable Siliguri corridor. After a tense 75-day stand-off, the Chinese withdrew with some loss of face. Soon, reconciliatory steps were initiated. These were perhaps partly prompted by Trump’s trade war with China, and led to the Wuhan summit. India was sweet-talked to reiterate support of the one-China policy by renaming Air India’s flight to Taiwan as Chinese Taipei. Retracting from the bold step of inviting the Tibetan Sikyong to Prime Minister Narendera Modi’s swearing in, after the 2014 Parliamentary elections. We were inveigled into shunting the Dalai Lama’s ‘Thank you India’ program from Delhi, with high international media profile, to the Dharamsala’s backwaters. All this without reciprocity, except pious platitudes. Later we quietly downplayed our commitment in QUAD so as not to ruffle the Dragon.

Global Power Shift President Obama’s visit to China in Nov 2009 - unprecedently, in his first year in office - strengthened China self-belief in G-2 – the China and USA dominating a bipolar world order. Xi Jinping then harboured ambitions of displacing the USA and becoming the preeminent super-power during his tenure (now extended for life). However, its overreach with the Belt and Road Initiative over land and maritime silk routes, burgeoning trade surpluses, disregard on Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) etc put it in conflict with Trump’s USA and many EU nations. China has also fuelled apprehensions in

▪ May-June 2019

China’s overreach with the Belt and Road Initiative over land and maritime silk routes, burgeoning trade surpluses, disregard on Intellectual Property Rights etc put it in conflict with Trump’s USA and many EU nations. China has also fuelled apprehensions in many nations – especially in ASEAN - that remain wary of the Middle Kingdom as top hegemon

China Pakistan Economic Corridor Photo courtesy: sg.news.yahoo.com

many nations – especially in ASEAN that remain wary of the Middle Kingdom as top hegemon. In 2018, 30 percent of the worlds nominal GDP was generated east of the Suez, with China contributing about half of this figure. The Dragon’s rise, along with that of Japan, India and Indonesia heralds an epochal shift of relative economic and military power from the West to East. Russia as a Eurasian power straddles both the worlds, but a hostile USA and Europe have pushed it closer to China. India finds itself at the crossroads of US acrimony with China and Russia. It is impacted by the US-Iran confrontation. In addition, India is also a target of Trump’s trade war. India occupies a pivotal geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific, through which flows 27 percent of global oil. India can benefit from this fascinating power-play in our neighbourhood and region if it gets its act together. 

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May-June 2019 ▪

HIGHER EDUCATION CHINA’S RISE

China’s strides in higher education and the lessons for India

▪ May-June 2019

 ICEC Research Team

he phenomenal rise of China in the field of higher education has been a subject of interest for the Indian media. On August 1, 2018, Akshay Venkatesh, a renowned Indian-Australian mathematician, was announced as one of four winners of the Fields Medal, referred to as the Nobel prize for mathematics. In 2014, the prestigious award had been won by Manjul Bhargava, a Canadian-American mathematician of Indian origin. Soon after Venkatesh won the award, Tadit Kundu wrote in Live Mint that top honours won by expatriate Indians had led to the familiar lament about India’s lack of academic talent and its scarcity of world-class institutions. Kundu’s article, titled ‘What India can learn from China’s rise in higher education’, noted that in comparison, China had done remarkably well in terms of number of world-class institutions, gross enrolment ratios in higher education and research output. “Even till the early years of the 21st century, the gap between India and China in terms of the number of top-ranked universities and in terms of the gross enrolment ratio in higher education was marginal. Since then, China has moved far ahead of India. In the list of top 500 educational institutes in the world compiled by the UK-based agency Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), many more universities from China find a place compared with those from India. As per the latest rankings, 22 Chinese universities found a place in the top 500 list as compared to nine from India. The gap between India and China is also visible in the number of cited research publications and their impact,” wrote Kundu. In January 2015, Devesh Kapur of the University of Pennsylvania and Elizabeth J. Perry of Harvard University came out with a research paper titled ‘Higher Education Reform in China and India: The Role of The State’.

Kapur and Perry noted that the quality of a country’s system of higher education is a gauge of its current level of national development as well as a bellwether of future economic progress. “It is therefore natural that the much ballyhooed ‘rise’ of China and India should generate interest in the condition of their colleges and universities,” they stated. The authors observed that while studying the higher education systems of the two Asian giants, a number of comparative questions merited investigation. Did these countries’ long histories of higher education pose a benefit or a barrier to meeting contemporary demands? Were their current systems of higher education suited to the “knowledge economy” of the 21st century? Were these systems able to drive innovation, economic growth and national competitiveness? What roles did the Chinese and Indian states play in creating “world-class” universities capable of spurring and sustaining further intellectual and industrial development? Could these academic and economic goals be pursued without collateral damage to other valued goals of social equity and political stability? Kapur and Perry found that higher education reforms in China and India had been backed by impressive increases in state spending. The investment made by China in the sphere of higher education was much higher than the investment made by India. This, of course, was also impacted by the size of economies of the two nations. Both India and China recognized the importance of tertiary education for promoting national development. Despite such striking similarities in intent, the Chinese and Indian patterns of higher education reform diverged markedly, wrote Kapur and Perry. “Communist China showed a far greater willingness to sacrifice egalitarian ideals in the pursuit of globally competitive universities than its democratic neighbor. Political factors account for much of the difference, but

A country’s system of higher education is a gauge of its current level of national development as well as a bellwether of future economic progress. In the list of top 500 educational institutes in the world compiled by the UK-based agency Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), many more universities from China find a place compared with those from India. As per the latest rankings, 22 Chinese universities found a place in the top 500 list as compared to nine from India. The gap between India and China is also visible in the number of cited research publications and their impact May-June 2019 ▪

HIGHER EDUCATION CHINA’S RISE

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi with winners at a Skill India program

in ways that challenge conventional assumptions about the influence of regime type on educational policy,” they wrote in the research paper. Writing on the difference in higher education in India and China, US-based global higher education strategist Dr Rahul Choudaha noted in Economic Times that India and China have taken markedly different paths, which has shaped their social and economic make-up. Their diverse trajectory of development has simultaneously impacted their higher education systems.

Skill India a good initiative, lack of jobs a worry India has a young demography, but the lack of skill among India’s burgeoning youth has been a source of worry for the government. In July 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Skill India campaign with the aim to train over 40 crore people in India in different skills by 2022. The Skill India campaign includes various initiatives of the government like “National Skill Development Mission”,

▪ May-June 2019

India and China have taken markedly different paths, which has shaped their social and economic make-up. Their diverse trajectory of development has simultaneously impacted their higher education systems “National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, 2015”, “Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY)” and the “Skill Loan scheme”. According to a news report carried by the Financial Express in May 2018, Skill India led to a big push on skill development, but finding jobs was the sore point. Courtesy the Skill India

program, there was a substantial increase in the number of people who were skilled in FY17 and FY18. The number of skilled youth rose by more than four times, from over 3.5 lakh people in FY17 to nearly 16 lakh people in FY18. According to the FE report, not everyone who was getting skilled found placement in the job sector. “In FY17 just over half of those skilled managed to find jobs. In FY18 this fell below 30%, meaning just about 3 out of every 10 person who undertook the Skill India mission in FY18 found a job,” said the report. Dr Rahul Choudaha noted in Economic Times in 2012 that at the vocational education level, India with its young and ambitious population was missing the opportunity of engaging them as a part of the mainstream economic growth through manufacturing. Come 2019, the situation is much the same. In January 2019, India faced a political firestorm over the draft report of National Sample Survey Office’s periodic labour force survey. The survey stated that the country’s unemployment rate

surged to over 6 per cent in 2017-18. This was the highest unemployment rate that the country had seen in the last 45 years, going by the draft report. The draft report added that unemployment rate stood at 7.8 per cent in urban areas as compared to 5.3 per cent in rural areas. Low industrial production, slow manufacturing activity, sluggish performance of power sectors and the FMCG sector are among the factors that have led to a job crisis in India. Over the last few decades, China leaped forward and employed the masses through low-cost, volume-based manufacturing. Dr Choudaha noted in his article that China did not achieve this by chance. China consistently expanded its vocational education system to develop a skilled manpower base for manufacturing-related activities.

Credential inflation – a challenge for Indian youth

Indian youth face the challenge of ‘credential inflation’ – the devaluation of a degree with time due to oversupply of graduates. Dr Choudaha posited that the large number of unemployed and under-employed college graduates in India bear witness to the phenomenon of credential inflation. Institutes of higher learning in India are marred by poor quality of education and skills imparted to students. This worsens a bad situation. “While China’s higher education has its own limitations, it highlights how India is losing opportunities of maximizing societal and economic impact through higher education. An informed and radical change in higher education is needed to address qualitative and quantitative challenges at all levels of education and providing diverse pathways of educating and engaging talent,” wrote Dr Choudaha in Economic Times.

Profound, radical policy actions helped China rise

In November 2014, Vidya Rajiv Yeravdekar and Gauri Tiwari published their study paper on ‘China's Lead in Higher Education: Much to Learn for India’. The

India is losing opportunities of maximizing societal and economic impact through higher education. An informed and radical change in higher education is needed to address qualitative and quantitative challenges at all levels of education and providing diverse pathways of educating and engaging talent paper was published in ‘Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences’. Yeravdekar and Tiwari noted that China’s ascent has been the result of policies that were drawn specifically to enhance excellence in all fields. The Chinese pursued higher education policies which led to increase in international competitiveness, higher gross enrolment ratio and strong vocational training. Yeravdekar and Tiwari observed in the research paper that higher education systems in India and China are boxed into rivalry as a matter of course. The Asian titans have the two largest systems and are the largest “exporters” of international students. Both countries have made high-

er education an item of precedence, guided by planned shift towards knowledge economy. The research paper stated that while China held itself to exacting standards in the business of policy, India was yet to mature past unavailing attempts. This led the Indian education system to go through the motions of attending to the most skeletal of the demands, and no more. China’s “long fought and hard won” battle proved that the centre-periphery paradigm in international education is not a foregone conclusion, noted the research paper. Yeravdekar and Tiwari concluded that the Chinese higher education system bore fruits of profound and sometimes radical

May-June 2019 ▪

HIGHER EDUCATION CHINA’S RISE Nested within a slew of developmental challenges and slow moving democratic processes, India’s higher education has many crosses to bear. India can learn from China, which has proved that policies that are encased in goal-oriented projects can reap extraordinary results

policy actions. Phenomenal expenditure in achieving these aims helped China reach the goal-post fast. At the same time, Yeravdekar and Tiwari also appreciated China’s exemplary policy formulation and execution. They wrote that the Chinese succeeded in building a coherent and differentiated system rushing to move inwards from periphery. India’s expansion, on the other hand, was a slapdash reaction to “massification”. It suffered from gross underinvestment, and also the affliction of policy paralysis. “The reservoir of policy initiatives, which is scarce as it is, dribbles away as it sluices down endless disagreements and obstructions,” said the scholars. Yeravdekar and Tiwari recommended

▪ May-June 2019

that India would do well to find a middle ground in policy design somewhere between the absolutistic quality of the Chinese system and the inefficacy of the Indian central planning apparatus. They emphasized that higher education policies must be sufficiently adaptive. “Nested within a slew of developmental challenges and slow moving democratic processes, India’s higher education has many crosses to bear. Yet, India can take lesson from its neighbour, which has proved that policies that are encased in goal-oriented projects can reap extraordinary results,” wrote Yeravdekar and Tiwari. The massive ramp-up of China’s higher education system was not without

challenges, stated Tadit Kundu in Live Mint. China’s higher education policies were criticized by scholars who argued that quality of research was compromised to produce greater quantity. “Nevertheless, China’s higher education system has allowed it to amass a visible lead over India in most quantifiable metrics, ranging from the number of ‘world-class’ institutes to research citations to patent filings,” noted Kundu. Over the last few decades, India’s growth has been impressive, but China’s growth has been unprecedented in human history, said Kapur and Perry in the Harvard research paper. With an astute understanding of these two major Asian civilizations, they wrote that as India struggled to deliver universal primary education, its deeply inegalitarian social structures produced a distributive politics that undermined its higher education system. In China, by contrast, the very political forces that drove its remarkable growth also underpinned the transformation of its higher education system. 

GUPSHUP

Rani keen to act in an Indo-China joint venture

Photo courtesy: Yash Raj Films

Bollywood superstar Rani Mukerjee, the heartthrob of a generation, has called for more Indo-China productions. Rani’s comedy-drama Hichki (My Teacher with Hiccups) became the only Indian film with a solo female lead to earn over 120 million yuan (17.8 million U.S. dollars) at the Chinese box office in 2018. In a recent interview, Rani told CGTN Digital that she would love to be part of an Indo-China venture and do Chinese films.

Granny wins a million hearts Blowing a bright multi-coloured vuvuzela, India flag painted on her cheeks and waving a miniature version of the flag, 87-year-old Charulata Patel become the darling of India at the India-Bangladesh match on July 2, held at Birmingham, United Kingdom. Patel, who watched the match seated on her wheelchair, could be seen cheering with other fans and breaking into a jig with every boundary or wicket. Later Virat Kohli, Captain of the Indian cricket team and Rohit Sharma, Man of the Match, met their vivacious fan and posted the photographs on the social media. India won the match by 28 runs. The United Kingdom hosted the World Cup over June and July.

Photo courtesy: Hindirush.com

May-June 2019 ▪

Belt and Road Wrestling! Much diplomatic wrestling has happened between India and China over the Belt and Road Initiative. A group of enterprising young men from Nepal have a whole new take on the Belt and Road Initiative. They have named their wrestling tournament the ‘Belt and Road Wrestling Championship’ and are hardselling it over social media.

Let’s take the train

Photo courtesy: Hindirush.com

▪ May-June 2019

An experimental magnetic levitation train capable of travelling at 600km/h went on show at Qingdao in eastern Shandong province in May. Powerful electromagnets hold the Qingdao prototype at a thumb’s width from the rail, giving a quiet, smooth ride at speeds close to those involved in air travel. China operates the world’s fastest conventional train service, which can reach a speed of 350km per hour. The Shanghai Maglev has been in commercial operation since the end of 2002 and can reach a top speed of 430km per hour. It operates on one 30-kilometre (19-mile) line between two stations. Engineers associated with the project said China achieved breakthroughs in maglev technology during the “three-year-battle” to build the new train that involved cooperation between more than 30 enterprises, universities and government research institutes.

GUPSHUP

The spoon factor

Kick It Like Lee!

Summer can be oppressive in many parts of India, as in China. Watermelon is a favourite summer cooler in both countries. Vendors selling sliced watermelon are a common sight at public places in India. The Chinese have added an interesting component to the sliced watermelon – a spoon. Images of sliced watermelon covered with cling film and a spoon provided inside were shared with enthusiasm on the Indian social media. Perhaps we can look forward to seeing watermelonswith-spoon in Indian supermarkets and streets.

Biographer Matthew Polly’s book on Bruce Lee released in paperback some weeks ago. The Chinese-American was an icon for Indians. His movies were huge draws. His fans in India couldn’t have enough of watching Enter the Dragon or the various other outings of the Godfather of MMA (Mixed Martial Arts). Polly’s biography Bruce Lee: A Life has revealed that the mega star was ahead of his time, reaping benefits of strength and conditioning training 50 years ago. Those years, it was rare for professional sports stars to hit the gym to improve their game. The book states that Lee drank protein shakes – including a blend of raw hamburgers – long before specialized protein diet became commonplace for modern athletes.

22-year-old Chinese CEO buys villa worth USD 117.33 million in Hong Kong The 22-year-old boss of a high-end education centre has splashed out HK$916 million (US$117.33 million) for a villa at one of Hong Kong’s most prestigious addresses. SCMP reported that Matthew Cheung Siu-woon bought the 8,674-square foot house at Mount Nicholson on The Peak. Matthew is the chief executive of Causeway Education, which charges secondary students about HK$920 per hour for a course in mathematics. The villa purchased by him comes with a garden and rooftop.

Photo courtesy: dimsumdaily.hk May-June 2019 ▪

Tattoo Too Many A couple in eastern China have won a lawsuit against a tattoo parlour after their teenage son was suspended from school for having too many tattoos, said a report in Qianjiang Evening News. A court in Jiangshan, Zhejiang province, ordered the parlour to pay over 20,000 yuan (USD 2,900) in compensation on the grounds that the student was only 13 when he got the tattoos and that his parents had opposed the step. His parents sued the parlour, claiming that it had infringed the minor’s rights. Revealing details of the case – which was heard in March last year – the court’s judge Xu Gencai urged lawmakers to include tattoo parlours in China’s Law on the Protection of Minors, which bans under-18s from drinking or smoking.

Make me a doll A new mental-health phenomenon known as Snapchat dysmorphia is raising its head. A report in South China Morning Post said that selfie-led social media culture is playing a pervasive role in shaping how we want to look like, and people are gnawed by flaws that they would have ignored earlier. The result is heavy use of plastic surgery and cosmetic treatments. In China, the statistics are particularly stark. In 2018, cosmetic procedure platform GengMei (which means “more beautiful” in Chinese) valued the domestic cosmetic surgery industry at USD 71.8 billion. It found that 22 million Chinese underwent cosmetic procedures in 2018. Consumers under the age of 28 accounted for a whopping 54 per cent of the total client base.

Chinese youth steals data of 78 million people Chinese hacker Wang Fujie, who obtained details of 78 million people, is charged in the US with ‘one of the worst data breaches in history’. Wang Fujie has been charged along with another unnamed individual with hacking the computer systems of four companies including a US-based health insurer. The data stolen included the personally identifiable information of 78 million people.

▪ May-June 2019

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