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Slow storm season forecast But it only takes one to make misery in Hampton Roads, experts warn, so it pays to be prepared By Tamara Dietrich
he Atlantic hurricane season officially kicked off Sunday, June 1, and federal forecasters say odds are we’ll be seeing fewer hurricanes than normal.
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including one or two major ones.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects an El Nino to develop this summer, a weather phenomenon that packs westerly winds that can rip the heads off tropical storms in the Atlantic before they can grow into hurricanes.
A named storm has winds of at least 39 mph, a hurricane 74 mph, and a major hurricane 111 mph.
As result, forecasters predict a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a nearnormal season, and a mere 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
“It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall to have disastrous impacts on our communities,” Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery, cautioned in NOAA’s announcement.
The hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30. In that time, NOAA says, there’s a 70 percent chance the Atlantic will see eight to 13 named storms — three to six of which will build into hurricanes,
This outlook is just under the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
What forecasters can’t predict this far out, of course, is whether any — or all — of those blows will ever hit land.
Local meteorologist Lyle Alexander with the National Weather Service in Wakefield agreed that Hampton Roads should take the upbeat forecast with a grain of salt. Continues on page 9
6 — Hurricane Storm Guide 2014 • An advertising supplement to the Daily Press