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Heriot-Watt University School of Engineering and Physical Sciences MSc in Energy Project / Dissertation 2008-2009 Title: Author: Supervisor:

Environmental advantages from the cogeneration in Greece Mrs. Tampou Aliki - 061182660 Dr. Emilia Kondili (HWU â&#x20AC;&#x201C; TEIP)

FLAME Flexible Learning Advanced Masters in Energy

FLAME MSc in Energy

Declaration of Authorship I, Mrs. Tampou Alikiâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; 061182660 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cohort 2 (surname first then name and matriculation number)

confirm that the report entitled Environmental advantages of cogeneration in Greece is part of my assessment for module B49IR

I declare that the report is my own work. I have not copied other material verbatim except in explicit quotes, and I have identified the sources of the material clearly.

Tampou Aliki

Piraeus, 30/08/2009

(Signature)

(Place and Date)

Abstract The aim of this research is to measure at what level the main greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, namely CO2 produced by industries, hospitals and hotels can be minimized using cogeneration systems. The context of the research has focused on the technical aspect of the technology of CHP in the industrial and commercial sectors. The research focuses on CO2 emissions although the two other main GHG pollutants are mentioned; SO2, NOx. This will be done following the axis of the current Greek emissions problem caused by industry, with estimations based on the CHP technologies and general characteristics. Thereafter, a survey on CHP units installed and operating now in Greece, as well as their environmental impacts will be presented and evaluated. The survey will address the issues of implementation scenarios and environmental pollution avoidance. To be in a position to detect accurately the reasons why those units have not been adopted on a greater scale, the drawbacks of CHP are presented and estimated. The analysis concerns finding a way to calculate the exact current reduction in GHG emissions in Greece and to make a prediction on the potential reductions that could be made if more CHP technology were to penetrate further into the industrial and commercial sectors.

III

Contents Figures

...................................................................................................................... VI

Tables

................................................................................................................... VIII

Glossary

...................................................................................................................... IX

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION........................................................................................ 1

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE RESEARCH............................................................................... 1 1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM AND/OR HYPOTHESIS ............................................................. 5 1.3 JUSTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH (INCLUDING AIMS) ......................................... 5 1.4 METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................. 9 1.5 DELIMITATION OF SCOPE ............................................................................................. 10 1.6 OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION ................................................................................ 10 1.7 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2

RESEARCH DEFINITION ...................................................................... 12

2.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 THE PRACTICAL PROBLEM ........................................................................................... 12 2.3 THE THEORETICAL PROBLEM...................................................................................... 15 2.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND/OR HYPOTHESIS ........................................................ 21 2.5 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY..................................................................................... 22

3.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 22 3.2 RESEARCH PROCESS PLAN ........................................................................................... 22 3.3 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS ......................................................................................... 26 3.4 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 4

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS..................................................................... 27

4.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 27 4.2 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS: THE FINDINGS .................................................................... 27 4.2.1 Energy consumption in industry ....................................................................................... 28 4.2.2 Energy consumption in residential and tertiary sector ...................................................... 29 4.2.3 National levels of GHG emissions for the period of 1990-2010....................................... 29 4.2.4 CHP plants currently in operation in Greece .................................................................... 31 4.2.5 Consumption of Greek Industry........................................................................................ 36 4.2.6 Typical consumption of the Greek Tertiary Sector........................................................... 37 4.2.6.1 Health Care Buildings .................................................................................................... 37

4.2.6.2 Hotels

...................................................................................................................... 38

4.2.7 Typical emissions of GHG................................................................................................ 39 4.2.7.1 Typical GHG emissions for industrial sector................................................................. 39 4.2.7.2 Typical GHG emissions of tertiary sector...................................................................... 45 4.2.8 Emissions and emission reductions of operating Greek CHP plants ................................ 49 4.3 CHP penetration scenarios in industrial and tertiary sector ................................................. 52 4.4 Reasons that have prevented further CHP implementation in Greece ................................. 57 4.5 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 58 CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION ............................................................................................. 59

5.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 59 5.2 RELIABILITY OF THE DATA AND THE FINDINGS.................................................... 59 5.3 THE MEANING OF THE FINDINGS IN RELATION TO OTHER WORK.................... 61 CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS......................................................................................... 64

6.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 64 6.2 CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE RESEARCH PROBLEM................................................. 64 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 67 APPENDIX

...................................................................................................................... 72

Figures Figure 1.1: Conventional Energy System versus cogeneration system ...................................... 2 Figure 1.2: Cogeneration as a share of national power production............................................. 3 Figure 3.1: The research process plan....................................................................................... 25 Figure 4.1: Final energy consumption by the economic sector ................................................ 28 Figure 4.2: Final energy consumption in industry by energy carrier........................................ 28 Figure 4.3: Final energy consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors by energy carrier29 Figure 4.4: CO2 emission levels for the period of 1990-2000 ................................................. 30 Figure 4.5: SO2 and NOx emission levels for the period of 1990-2000 .................................. 31 Figure 4.8a : NOx emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in industries and total Greek emissions after CHP scenario)......................................................................................... 44 Figure 4.8b : NOx emissions(total Greek industrial emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek industrial emissions after CHP scenario). ....................................................................... 44 Figure 4.9a : CO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total Greek emissions after CHP scenario in). ................................................................................... 46 Figure 4.9b : CO2 emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek tertiary emissions after CHP scenario). ........................................................................... 46 Figure 4.10a : NOx emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total Greek emissions after CHP scenario)......................................................................................... 47 Figure 4.10b : NOx emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek tertiary emissions after CHP scenario). ........................................................................... 47 Figure 4.11a : SO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total Greek emissions after CHP scenario)......................................................................................... 48 Figure 4.11b : SO2 emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek tertiary emissions after CHP scenario). ........................................................................... 48 Figure 4.12 : CO2 emissions of operating units prior and before their installation.................. 50 Figure 4.13 : NOx emissions of operating units prior and before their installation.................. 50 Figure 4.14 : SO2 emissions of operating units prior and before their installation. ................. 51 Figure 4.15 : Efficiency % to Heat-to â&#x20AC;&#x201C;electricity ration of Greek operating CHP plants. ...... 51 Figure 4.17 : CO2 emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-75-50-25%. ........................................................................................................... 53

Figure 4.18 : CO2 emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-75-50-25%. ........................................................................................................... 53 Figure 4.19 : CO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75%.

...................................................................................................................... 54

Figure 4.20 : SO2 emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% ............................................................................................................ 54 Figure 4.21 : SO2 emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% ............................................................................................................ 55 Figure 4.22 : SO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75%.

...................................................................................................................... 55

Figure 4.23 : NOx emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% ............................................................................................................ 56 Figure 4.24 : NOx emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75%.................................................................................................. 56 Figure 4.25 : NOx emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75%

...................................................................................................................... 57

VII

Tables

Table 2.1: Cogeneration sector-fuel-size matrix. ...................................................................... 17 Table 2.2: Possible opportunities for application of cogeneration............................................ 18 Table 2.3: Energy and Carbon Use and Savings for Current Small-scale CHP Technologies, for 1 GWe of Installed Capacity(presents "Today's" results, not for a 100 kW Unit, but scaled up to 1 GW of installed capacity ......................................................................................................... 19 Table 4.1: CHP Units in operation in Greece............................................................................ 32 Table 4.2: Greek industry’s fuel mix for years 1990-2005. ...................................................... 36 Table 4.3: Tertiary sector plants, with an installed CHP unit. .................................................. 37 Table 4.4: Distribution of Greek health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods.

...................................................................................................................... 38

Table 4.10: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel). ................................................................ 39 Table 5.1: Industrial GHG Emissions ....................................................................................... 60 Table 5.2: Residential-Commercial-Institutional sector GHG Emissions ................................ 60 Table 5.3: Tertiary and GHG Emissions .................................................................................. 61 Table 5.4: Estimated energy needed to cover Greek industry’s needs and saved CO2 emissions.

...................................................................................................................... 62

Table 5.5: Comparison between literature and estimated SO2 and NOx savings in gr/KWh. . 63 Table 5.6: Fuel displaced and CO2 savings .............................................................................. 63 Table 4.4: Distribution of Greek health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods.

...................................................................................................................... 72

Table 4.11: Carbon content γ of each fuel (tn C/k tn)............................................................... 76 Table 4.12: Estimated thermal energy (GWh). ........................................................................ 78 Table 4.13: Sulfur Content % of fuel consumed in Greek industry ......................................... 81 Table 4.14: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel). ................................................................ 85 Table 4.15: Amount of fuel used to cover industry’s needs(extract from table 4.2)................ 85 Table 4.16: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel) and for on-grid electrical energy (tn/GWh).

...................................................................................................................... 88

Table 4.17 :Fuel in K tn used to meet thermal energy needs of CHP industrial operating plants.

...................................................................................................................... 91

VIII

Glossary ACEEE

American Council for Energy Efficiency Economy

BKB/Peat Briquettes

BKB are composition fuels manufactured from brown coal, produced by briquetting under high pressure. These figures include peat briquettes, dried lignite fines and dust, and brown coal breeze.

째C

Degree Celsius

CO2

Carbon Dioxide; the main Greenhouse gas

CHP

Combined Heat and Power

COGEN Europe

European Association for the Promotion of Cogeneration

CRES

Greek Centre for Renewable Energy Sources

DHC

District Heating and Cooling

EDUCOGEN

European Educational Tool of Cogeneration

EEC

European Economic Community, the former name of the European Community

European Union

GHG

Greenhouse Gas (in the current project the term includes CO2, SO2 and NOx)

gigawatts power

HACHP

Hellenic Combined Heat and Power Association

IEA

International Energy Agency; an energy policy advisor to its member countries in order to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization

(WMO)

and

the

United

Nations

Environment Programme (UNEP) IPPC

Directive

96/61/EC

concerning

Integrated

Pollution

Prevention and Control kg

kilogram

kWh

kilowatt-hour (1 kWh = 3,600 kJ = 3.6 MJ)

kWe

kilowatts electric power

kWth

kilowatts thermal power

micro-CHP

CHP plants under 20 kWe IX

MWe

megawatts electric power

MWth

megawatts thermal power

NCV

Net Calorific Value

NTUA

National Technical University of Athens

OPET

Organisation for the Promotion of Energy Technologies

Power Plant

POCs

Persistent Organic Pollutants

PGC

The Greek Public Gas Corporation

PPC

The Greek Public Power Corporation

RES

Renewable Energy Sources

SCF

Support Community Framework

TCG

Technical Chamber of Greece

TOE

tonne of oil equivalent

USA

United States of America

VOCs

Volatile Organic Compounds

WRI

World Resources Institute

ZREU

Zentrum für rationelle Energieanwendung und Umwelt – Germany (Center for rational application of energy and environment)

6EAP

Sixth

Environmental

Action

Programme

(European

Council,2002)

Acknowledgements I would like to thank for her support and advice Dr. Emilia Kondili under whose supervision this research was conducted. Deep appreciation is also expressed to Dr. John K. Kaldellis for his kind advice and encouragement throughout the work and to Dr. Phil Skittides for his helpful assistance and proofreading of the text.

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE RESEARCH Greece, along with Europe and the rest of the world is called to tackle a body of energy problems that will challenge governments, industries and the public in the 21st century. In the year 2000, the world’s emissions reached the amount of 9,000 million tons of carbon equivalent and will have reached 15,000 millions by 2025 according to an estimate from the World Resources Institute (WRI). Looking back we can see that during the last 50 years the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels have risen from 5 billion tons to 24 billion tons (WRI). Most energy consumption is derived from fossil fuels, depleting natural resources and contributing to global climate change, through increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. When the EU signed the Kyoto protocol, it promised to reduce these emissions by 2012 by 8% in comparison to 1990 levels, an equivalent reduction of 300 million tonnes. To meet this commitment, significant changes of behaviour are required now, both in terms of energy supply and demand management. Today all thermal power stations in Greece-with the exception of two, using as fuel natural gas, use either national lignite or mazut-diesel for their operation. Electricity generation is found to be responsible for almost 55% of the CO2 production, reaching the amount of 55,000 Ktn in the year 2002. (Kaldellis J. et al., 2004). Literature often provides as definition of CHP the following: “Cogeneration is the thermodynamically sequential production of two more useful forms of energy from a single primary energy source”. Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems can generate electricity (and/or mechanical energy) and thermal energy in a single, integrated system (see Figure 1). As shown in the following figure, to produce, via separate heat and power plants, 35 units of electricity and 50 units of heat, 180 units of primary input is required which is considerably greater than the 100 units of primary input used in a CHP plant. CHP is not a specific technology but rather a combination of technologies to meet end-user needs for heating and/or cooling, and mechanical and/or electrical power.

Figure 1.1: Conventional Energy System versus cogeneration system (source: Kaarsberg, 1998) The EU recognised that CHP is one of the primary means to achieve its energy policy objective of improving energy efficiency and its environmental policy objective of reducing GHG emissions. The EU issued in 2004, directive 2004/8/EC named “On the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market and amending directive 92/42/EEC”. As implied within the aforementioned directive “the increased use of cogeneration geared towards making primary energy savings could constitute an important part of the package of measures needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol and the United Nations Framework convention on climate change”. The OPET (Organisation for the Promotion of Energy Technologies) CHP Consortium consisting of thirty one European countries and China, coordinated by the Danish Technological Institute outlined eight reasons to promote CHP: 1. conformity with EU energy policy 2. reliability 3. high thermal efficiency 4. lower environmental impact 5. fuel flexibility 6. high availability 2

7. supply security and market benefits 8. economic benefits The following figure shows the percentage of electricity produced through cogeneration in the EU in 1999.

Figure 1.2: Cogeneration as a share of national power production (source: COGEN EuropeEDUCOGEN , 2001) As CHP constitutes an important element, an increased share of funding for CHP by EU programmes has been foreseen. Some of these programmes are: •

Joule/Thermie

•

Save/Altener

•

Phare, Tacis, Synergie and Meda

The commission examines ways in which to integrate the energy and environmental benefits of CHP in its taxation policy. Financial instruments such as Third Party Financing are encouraged for CHP investments in the industrial sector.

In Greece, the implementation of law 2244/94 has ended a 45 year monopoly on electricity production by the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC). This law allows the private sector to produce energy from renewable energy sources (RES) and natural gas. Some of the main CHP applications currently operating are at: •

Hellenic Petroleum S.A.

•

Aluminium of Greece

•

Motor oil

CHP plants operating in Greece are presented in Chapter 4.2. CHP can boost market competitiveness by increasing the efficiency and productivity of our use of fuels, capital, and human resources. Money saved on energy would become available to spend on other goods and services, promoting economic growth. Past research in the USA by ACEEE (American Council for Energy Efficiency Economy-1995) has shown that savings are retained in the local economy and generate greater economic benefit than money spent on energy. Recovery and productive use of waste heat from power generation is a critical first step in a productivity-oriented environmental strategy. Specifically, CHP can be an engine for economic development, offering clean, low-cost energy solutions to many sectors of the economy (Shipley A.et al., 2001).

A large amount of the energy consumed is wasted due to the fact that the rule of the thumb to make rational use of energy seems extraordinary, nonsense or even lyxury .Nowadays that finite resources seem to become extinct or be very expensive CHP should be seen as a technology that encourages further the energy conservation and the rational energy use. Rational use of energy does not mean restriction or sacrifice of comfortable living conditions, but the effort for reduction of losses of energy in the biggest possible scale and maximize the exploitation of each energy unit so that total final consumption of energy is decreased. Using energy rationally is interpreted as the most optimal management of energy resources. Basic beginning of rational energy use is that the final consumer should each time use precisely the amount of energy that it needs in order to it covers his needs. Moreover, the energy profits are maximized when suitable tools, such as products and applications, are used that offer us technological improvement in terms of energy efficiency. 4

Some of the energy saving measures and therefore measure towards rational energy use in a industrial and tertiary sector are the often maintenance and where necessary replacement of boilers, insulation of piping system, installation of BIM system or CHP plant that provides higher efficiency by producing two more useful forms of energy from a single primary energy source than producing those forms of energy separately.

1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM AND/OR HYPOTHESIS This investigation addresses the environmental gains that can be achieved from using the method of combined heat and power generation in smaller and individual energy generation applications such as industry, hospitals and hotels. Some of the topics that will help outline the environmental significance of Combined Heat and Power generation systems are the demand for air pollution control, the near extinction of fossil fuels reserves and the amount of reduction that can be achieved using cogeneration. The first step would be to outline the drawbacks that have so far prevented those units from being used in the Greek energy supply system and secondly to present what needs to be done to integrate such units of Combined Heat and Power in the industrial and tertiary sector. Additionally, it would be useful to refer to the current state of the Greek pollution problem. 1.3 JUSTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH (INCLUDING AIMS) European leaders are set to agree to cut greenhouse gases by a fifth, hoping that the tough and binding target will set an example for a global post-Kyoto settlement. But behind this current agreement, European leaders are bitterly divided over how to share the burden of reducing harmful emissions. Conventional and nuclear energy that possess the lionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s share in the energy generation sector are to be replaced without question since they are not compatible with the global sustainable 5

policy. The problem is that no one has been able to find the ultimate solution in order to replace energy sources that cause irreversible environmental problems. Renewable energy sources have the potential to help, though they are not yet in a position, for various reasons, to replace completely conventional energy sources. To this end, CHP aims to give a permanent or temporary solution to the need for a more efficient and a cleaner form of energy. Last year, serious attempts from associations and organisations were made to outline the significance of CHP in the effort towards environmental assurance. Among them is COGEN Europe, a registered charity which was created in 1993 under the guidance of the European Commission. A considerable part of the thematic work of COGEN Europe is done through five working groups: •

Working Group 'Cogeneration from renewable energy sources'

•

Working Group 'Industrial CHP Users'

•

Working Group 'Emissions Trading & CHP'

•

Working Group 'Micro-Cogeneration'

•

Working Group 'Small and Medium-scale Cogeneration'

COGEN Europe and the working group involved in the emissions trading, highlight some valuable publications such as Position Statement-EU Emissions Trading and Combined Heat and Power and EDUCOGEN-The European Educational Tool of Cogeneration. The first publication indicates the necessary complementary mechanisms to prevent negative consequences of cogeneration, while the second as indicated in the handbook “aims to develop the integration of cogeneration within technical universities and engineering colleges”. This report presents a variety of technologies in use, applications, economic analysis, impacts, optimal design, current status and prospects that all together compose the role, significance and potential of cogeneration. On November 16th, 2006 the annual British conference of CHP Association took place and various speakers from Great Britain expressed their concerns relative to CHP. The director of CHP Association P. Piddington referred to cogeneration as highly competitive and supported it by citing that cogeneration uses 20-30% less fuel, produces up to 1MT carbon savings per GW power and finally estimated that the cost benefit rises up to £1.5 billion per GW power.

Snoek and Spurr in their paper “The Role of District Heating & Cooling(DHC) and Combined Heat and Power Systems in Reducing Fossil Fuels Use and Combating Harmful Emissions”, draw our attention to an application not yet totally applied, but which promises to give more than just a satisfactory solution. “The fundamental idea of DHC is simple but powerful; connect multiple thermal energy users through a piping network to environmentally optimum energy sources, such as CHP, industrial waste heat and renewable energy sources such as biomass, geothermal and natural sources of heating and cooling. The ability to assemble and connect thermal loads enables these environmentally optimum sources to be used in a costeffective way. Not only do DHC systems allow for the optimum use of energy, but they also provide input energy flexibility (oil, natural gas, biomass, coal, etc.).” Furthermore, the Hellenic CHP Association (HACHP) was established in 1995 and aims to support and outline the necessity of CHP plants in Greece. To this end various publications have been made. The director of the association, in a conference of the Technical Chamber of Greece on the subject of lignite, natural gas and its role in the electricity generation sector referred to the CHP capacity and identified potentials, perspectives and made a comparison between CO2 emissions per kg CO2 of MWth generated through a coal-fired steam turbine and coal, gas and biofuel CHP plants. Additionally, other Greek attempts have been made to survey CHP potentials and technologies and present them in order that Greek industries and other individual electricity generators become familiar with the cogeneration technology and adopt it. The Greek Centre of Renewable Energy Sources (CRES) and the relevant German organisation (ZREU), under the financing of the European Commission, published a handbook called Training Guide on CHP Systems containing subjects such as CHP principles and other technological issues, operation, maintenance as well as financial opportunities and assessments and legal status for the EU in general and for Greece and Germany in particular. During the past years, the EU has begun highlighting the significance of CHP plants through the issue of Directive 2004/8/EC. In this directive, the European Union sees CHP as “a measure to save energy” and it is only a matter of time, technology and governments’ initiative before CHP units are integrated in the electricity generation market.

Fossil fuels and finite energy cannot be totally replaced by RES all at once. CHP has the privilege of using finite or RES energy products and by actually producing both power and thermal energy, it can reduce significantly the use of the energy product itself. The aim of this work is to investigate whether and to what degree the use of CHP plants in Greece can actually have a positive environmental impact and furthermore to quantify it. The major environmental benefits are mainly due to the fact that since CHP plants have greater efficiency than conventional ones, we need a lower amount of primary energy and thus fewer GHG emissions are released. The research work will be carried out in the following order: initially the pollution avoided with the use of cogeneration plants will be estimated based on the existing plants. A survey on CHP units installed and operating now in Greece, their environmental impacts will be presented and evaluated as well. Secondly, the scenario of CHP plant installations in percentage of penetration will be examined. Specifically. 他

Reduction savings will be estimated in comparison with the tertiary and industrial sector GHG emissions

他

Reduction savings will be estimated in comparison with the national GHG emissions levels

In addition, the drawbacks of CHP plants will be presented and an estimation of the drawbacks that prevented the integration of CHP units instead of conventional power units will be made so as to be in a position to detect accurately the reasons why those units have not been adopted on a greater scale.

1.4 METHODOLOGY The present research aims to answer the question of to what extent and in what way the technology of combined heat and power generation can give a solution to the problem of harmful emissions in Greece. This research uses as input, cogeneration technologies, the urgent environmental need for pollution control and the cogeneration potential of Greece. The empirical research method is a class of research method in which empirical observations or data are collected in order to answer particular research questions. In this investigation relevant literature will also be reviewed. Therefore, since all of the aforementioned methods constitute the key ideas of empirical research, the approach method to be used is the empirical.

The environmental advantages of cogeneration arise from data, observation and assumption of what is likely to happen if cogeneration systems are to be used in Greek power plants. This investigation is going to predict a causal relation to the cogeneration theory, based on the higher efficiency and on the decreased use of fossil fuels that the plants might achieve using this specific technology. Thus, based on the cogeneration theories of higher efficiency and the decreased use of fossil fuels, the research is going to follow the structure of predicting a casual relation to the aforementioned theories. As a result, it seem obvious that this is a deductive research. During recent years there has been an active response from competent authorities and private energy sectors towards cogeneration and thus some serious attempts have been made to promote CHP technologies. Therefore, there is data-though limited- available that can be used to confirm CHP theories relative to the environmental advantages that arise and consequently, the research can be characterised as inductive as well. Byman (1989) states that â&#x20AC;&#x153;survey research entails the collection of data on a number of units [â&#x20AC;Ś], with a view to collecting systematically a body of quantifiable data in respect of a number of variables which are then examined to discern patterns of associationâ&#x20AC;?. The type of design to be used is survey, as the investigation relative to the environmental advantages emerges basically from data and information that are qualitative, such as CHP technology. Furthermore, the research is going to be neither experimental nor a case study, but the output

of an array of CHP plants. The main aim the research has to fulfil is to what extent environmental benefits arise. The category of activity is not longitudinal mainly because CHP is a technology that is not yet common in Greece and thus the investigation cannot be conducted over a definite period of time. Cohen, et al. (2000) state that “where different respondents are studied at different points in time the study is called ‘cross-sectional’ ”. Instead of longitudinal, we will follow the cross-sectional method that allows us to face CHP as a group of various technologies and applications to be applied in Greek power stations in order to reduce the harmful emissions. Finally, the data collection technique will be a collection of secondary data. This data will include the amount of Greek emission levels, the CHP applications that have so far been used in Greece and finally the GHG emissions and the potential amount of fuel saved by using CHP. Public records and/or company records presenting the electricity and heat consumption, before and after the implementation of a CHP unit, are to be used in the research providing an extensive presentation of the environmental advantages.

1.5 DELIMITATION OF SCOPE This research study is about calculating the reduction in GHG emissions and reduction in fuel consumption based on the CHP data of the companies so far operating and/or designed. It attempts to calculate the aforementioned environmental gain from the current designed units and proceed to an evaluation of those units. The analysis has focused on data analysis and has not extended to an economic evaluation of cogeneration plants due to the need for a more focused research.

1.6 OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION In the first chapter, an introduction of the present CHP study is made. This chapter provides an identification of the research problem and its importance. Aims of the current research are outlined while relative extensive justification is carried out. Moreover, an insightful review of the chosen methodology is presented and a detailed validation of the specific choices is presented.

The theoretical and practical problems are presented in the second chapter. The theoretical problem is defined by means of pollution control and CHP technology, while the practical problem introduces the environment and context of the problem, aiming to facilitate on a greater scale CHP units in Greece. The research problem and questions are presented in detail helping to define the problem. The sequence of steps adopted during the research is presented via the research process plan. The Research process plan presented in the third chapter provides extensive information on the methods that will be followed using flow diagrams leading from the aims to the final output of the research. The fourth chapter includes the analysis and results. Findings, by means of primary research, the data collected and their analysis are presented. The analysis which follows is a series of calculations and determines on what scale CHP technology provides environmental gains in Greece. Ultimately, in the final chapter conclusions of the current research work are presented. Conclusions stem directly from the analysis and results and relate fully to the research problem. 1.7 SUMMARY This chapter introduced the environmental prospects in the era of CHP technology. As GHG emissions are gradually rising, Greece along with the rest of the world is trying to tackle serious and adverse environmental problems. Environmental issues are outlined and the research problem is defined. The methodology followed and closed the introductory chapter of the current research.

CHAPTER 2

RESEARCH DEFINITION

2.1 INTRODUCTION The current chapter defines the theoretical and practical problems. Within the theoretical problem, issues such as pollution control, CHP technology and lack of knowledge of the use and performance of cogeneration units are investigated. The practical problem section includes the demand for pollution control and national policies on pollution control. The research questions provide assistance by presenting the quality of the findings that are going to be presented hereafter within the fourth chapter. 2.2 THE PRACTICAL PROBLEM The problem environment: The demand for pollution control Climate change is one of the four key environmental priorities of the EU sixth environmental action programme (6EAP) (European Council, 2002). In the EU strategy for sustainable development (European Commission, 2001a), climate change is mentioned as one of the main threats to sustainable development, and energy use is explicitly linked to this by proposing the limitation of climate change and increase in the use of clean energy as a combined priority objective. Climate change has to be analysed in an integrated way together with other environmental issues such as air pollution, water pollution, deforestation and loss of biodiversity, due to the interactive relations all those issues have. Pollution of all kinds has caused irreversible impacts for the world presented in the report of European Environment Agency titled “Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system” in 2005, include: •

a temperature increase in the past 100 years of 0.70 C globally and of 10C in Europe, while the warmest European years recorded were in the last 14 years

•

precipitation in northern Europe increased by about 10-40 % in the past 100 years and decreased by up 20% in southern Europe

•

the frequency of draughts, heat waves and extreme precipitation events in Europe has increased while the frequency of cold extremes has decreased

•

glaciers in the Alps lost approximately one third of their size and one half of their mass. The extent and duration of snow cover across Europe has decreased.

•

reductions in the sea ice will shrink the habitats of polar bears and seals

•

several costal zones will experience increasing problems due to sea level rise and the melting thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings and other infrastructure

•

river discharge is projected to increase in northern and north-western Europe and to decrease in parts of Mediterranean Europe

•

the cultivated area can be expanded in northern Europe while at the same time due to increase water stress in southern Europe, agriculture might be threatened

•

during the summer of 2003 more than 20,000 deaths occurred in Europe attributable to a combination of heat and pollution.

•

the “abrupt” climate theory (IPCC, 2001a;Hadley Centre,2005a) describes various non-linear, abrupt changes with global and regional consequences such as 13m increase in global sea level or general decrease in temperature

All of the above forms of impacts are the apparent proof that the demand for pollution control is far beyond urgent, and that we are at a point where it has become a necessity for the planet earth. Europe, having realised how important environment assurance is, has established various models monitoring the environment and in particular IMAGE, Euromove and FAIR models which are related to GHG emissions and climate change. The problem context: National policies on pollution control In Europe, the first step was taken by the European Parliament with the issuance of Directive 96/61/EC which as described in its body “…establishes the general framework for integrated pollution prevention and control; it lays down the measures necessary to implement integrated pollution prevention and control…”. As a result, all of the member states have to take all the necessary steps which include the issuing of relevant national laws. Within the Directive is implied that in order to receive a permit, an industrial or agricultural installation must comply with certain basic obligations. In particular, it must: •

use all appropriate pollution-prevention measures, namely the best available techniques (which produce the least waste, use less hazardous substances, enable the recovery and recycling of substances generated, etc.);

•

prevent all large-scale pollution;

•

prevent, recycle or dispose of waste in the least polluting way possible;

•

use energy efficiently;

•

ensure accident prevention and damage limitation; 13

•

restore sites to their original state when the activity is over.

In addition to regulations and laws, treaties and protocols are intergovernmental methods aimed at confronting pollution. The most widely known is the Kyoto Protocol presented for signature in 1997 in Japan and enforced almost seven years later. In this Protocol, countries commit to reduce their emissions of six greenhouse gases by 5.2 % compared to their level in 1990. As of January 2009, 183 parties have ratified the protocol and which entered into force on 16 February 2005. The objective is the stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Other Protocols established mainly to record, control and prevent air pollution are still in force and their objective is to extend the implementation and progress of national policies and strategies. Some examples of these are Sulphur Protocol in 1985, Protocol on Nitrogen Oxides in 1988, Protocol on Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in 1991, Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions in 1994, Protocol on Heavy Metals in 1998, Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in 1998, Protocol to Abate Acidification and Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone in 1999. The problem of interest: What needs to be done to integrate more CHP units in the industrial and hospital sector in Greece? In the report of GOGEN Europe titled “The future of CHP in the EU market-The European cogeneration study’’ in 2001 refers among others “… Cogeneration in supplied about 2.5% of the electricity produced within Greece. The majority of this is in the industrial sector. Fuelling is increasingly dominated by gas, which has been replacing coal during the last decade. During the next 20 years, cogeneration capacity in the EU is predicted to almost triple from approximately 70 GWe to 190 GWe. This majority of growth will be shared between the industrial and domestic micro-CHP. Cogeneration in Germany contributes to 10% of the electrical capacity, and 16% of electricity in Italy is dominated by large scale cogeneration industrial plants. Cogeneration in Finland, supplies 32 % and 75% of electricity and heat respectively, mainly in space heating and the industrial sector. In other European Countries, like Sweden and the UK, cogeneration contributes at a percentage of 5-6 % to electricity production…” . The potential of CHP in Greece is estimated to be 400-500MWe in the industrial sector and 300MWe in the commercial sector (Theofylaktos G., 2005). A plan has to be followed in order to integrate CHP plants in the industrial and commercial sectors (hospitals and hotels). 14

This plan should provide a solution to major issues that CHP plants are facing, in order to facilitate their establishment in the Greek electricity generation scheme. Owners of industrial and commercial units should be economically assisted and the initial capital cost should be reduced while other economic motivations, such as reduced taxation should be adopted. Another great problem that CHP units face is that although some plants manage to receive the production licence from the Greek Ministry of Development and be funded, only some of them actually obtain the operational licence that is the last prerequisite to operate their CHP unit. Usually those situations occur when mistaken designs in the CHP unit have taken place and thus remarkable efforts should be made so that those situations are no longer an obstacle for CHP establishment in Greece.

2.3 THE THEORETICAL PROBLEM The subject: Pollution Control “Global demand for energy is increasing. World energy demand – and CO2 emissions – is expected to rise by some 60% by 2030. Global oil consumption has increased by 20% since 1994, and global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.6% per year”. This is one of the energy strategy points stated within the Green Paper -A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy of 2006. A report issued in May 2007 by the World Wildlife Fund called “Thirty Dirty” sets out the 30 ‘dirtiest’ European power plants and has in its two first places PP Ag.Dimitriou and PP Kardia, both of which are in Greece. Not surprisingly the dirtiest power plants use, as a majority coal as fuel. This happens mostly due to the plants’ low efficiency and the low calorific value of coal. Here, Greece highlights the urgent need for pollution control and for the adaptation of an effective solution. According to the Stern Review, as a result of climate change, a 30 C temperature rise will be one reason among many, why 3 million people will not have access to water, up to 200 million people will be suffering from malaria and malnutrition and 25 % of species will face extinction (both fauna and flora). This review also notes that “the latest science suggests that the Earth’s average temperature will rise by even more than 5 or 6°C if emissions continue to grow and positive feedbacks amplify the warming effect of greenhouse gases (e.g. release of carbon dioxide from soils or methane from permafrost). This level of global temperature rise would be equivalent to the amount of warming that occurred between the last age (refers to 2006 when this report was issued) and today – and is likely to lead to major disruption and 15

large-scale movement of population. Such “socially contingent” effects could be catastrophic, but are currently very hard to capture with current models as temperatures would be so far outside human experience.” Electricity production is responsible for 50% of Greek CO2 emissions, while combustion of fossil fuel accounts for 91% of total emissions, according to the National Observatory of Athens. The Area: CHP Technology Cogeneration uses a single process to generate both electricity and usable heat or cooling. The proportions of heat and power needed (heat:power ratio) vary from site to site, so the type of plant must be selected carefully and an appropriate operating regime must be established to match demands as closely as possible. The plant may therefore be set up to supply part or all of the site’s heat and electricity loads, or a surplus may even be exported if a suitable customer is available. A Cogeneration plant consists of four basic elements: •

a prime mover (engine);

•

an electricity generator;

•

a heat recovery system;

•

a control system.

Cogeneration units are generally classified by the type of prime mover (i.e. drive system), generator and fuel used. In table 1, a cogeneration sector-fuel-size matrix is presented. Depending on site requirements, the prime mover may be a steam turbine, reciprocating engine, gas turbine and combined cycle. In the future, new technology options will include micro-turbines, Stirling engines and fuel cells. The prime mover drives the electricity generator and usable heat is recovered. The basic elements are all well established items of equipment, of proven performance and reliability.

Table 2.1: Cogeneration sector-fuel-size matrix (source: ESD, COGEN Europe et. al, 2001).

Sector Domestic Commerce

Industry

Heavy Plant Light Solid Solid Natural Coal & Biogas Fuel Size Gas products Oil Biomass Wastes Oil (MWe) <0.015 * * * * 0.015* * * * * 0.1 0.1-1 * * * * * 1-5 * * * * * * * 1-5 * * * * * * * 5-50 * * * * * * * >50 * * * * *

Cogeneration plants are available which can provide outputs from 1 kWe to 500 MWe. For larger scale applications (greater than 1 MWe) there is no "standard" cogeneration kit: equipment is specified to maximise cost-effectiveness for each individual site. For small-scale cogeneration applications, equipment is normally available in pre-packaged units, helping to simplify installations. Plants for industrial applications typically fall into the range 1-50 MWe. In general, it can be said that from 1 MWe to 10 MWe it will be medium, and above 10 MWe will be large. Non industrial applications also cover a full range of sizes, from 1 kWe for a domestic dwelling to about 10 MWe for a large district heating cogeneration scheme. Everything under 1 MWe can be considered small-scale. “Mini” is under 500 kWe and “micro” under 20 kWe. Cogeneration has a long history of use in many types of industry, particularly in the paper and bulk chemicals industries, which have large concurrent heat and power demands. In recent years, the greater availability and wider choice of suitable technology has meant that cogeneration has become an attractive and practical proposal for a wide range of applications. These include the process industries, commercial and public sector buildings and district heating schemes, all of which have considerable heat demand.

These applications are

summarised in the table below. In the table, lists of renewable fuels that can enhance the value of cogeneration are also presented, though fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, are more widely used.

Table 2.2: Possible opportunities for application of cogeneration (Source: COGEN Europe, 2001). Industrial

Buildings

Renewable Energy

Energy from waste

Pharmaceuticals

District

Sewage treatment

Gasified Municipal

& fine chemicals

heating

works

Solid Waste

Paper and board

Hotels

Poultry and other

Municipal

farm sites

incinerators

Short rotation

Landfill sites

manufacture Brewing,

Hospitals

distilling &

coppice woodland

malting Ceramics

Leisure

Energy crops

centres &

Hospital waste incinerators

swimming pools Brick

College

Agro-wastes (ex:

campuses &

bio gas)

schools Cement

Airports

Food processing

Prisons, police stations

Textile

Supermarkets

processing

and large stores

Minerals

Office

processing

buildings

Oil Refineries

Individual Houses

Iron and Steel Motor industry Horticulture and glasshouses Timber processing

Apart from industrial cogeneration schemes, other applications include district heating and Residential and Commercial Cogeneration. In District Heating (DH) applications, the heat provided by cogeneration is ideal for providing space heating and hot water for domestic, commercial or industrial use. DH systems are sometimes based on the incineration of municipal waste, and with adequate emission controls are a better environmental solution than disposing of waste in landfills. DH systems are also able to use biomass while natural gas as a fuel gives added flexibility to district heating systems. The cogeneration systems used in residential and commercial applications tend to be smaller systems, often based on 'packaged' units. Packaged units comprise a reciprocating engine, a small generator, and a heat recovery system, housed in a container. The only connections to the unit are for fuel, normally natural gas, and the connections for the heat and electricity output of the unit. These systems are commonly used in hotels, leisure centres, offices, smaller hospitals, and multi-residential accommodation. Kaarsberg et.al in 1998 presented a case of a hotel or hospital using CHP. Assuming CHP heat displaces natural gas burnt at 80% efficiency for space heat and 65% efficiency for hot water, the most interesting results are the two central columns: "Energy Saved" and "Carbon Avoided." The CHP engine uses 37% less fuel and generates 41% less carbon than the current grid for electricity and gas space and water heating.

Table 2.3: Energy and Carbon Use and Savings for Current Small-scale CHP Technologies, for 1 GWe of Installed Capacity(presents "Today's" results, not for a 100 kW Unit, but scaled up to 1 GW of installed capacity )(Source: Kaarsberg et.al. 1998).

Primary Energy in TBtu, for 1 Carbon in MtC per Installed GWe Running 4,928 GWe Energy Carbon Hours/year CHP Savings Avoided Technology Savings Savings % % CHP SHP SHP CHP SHP SHP (SHP(SHPFuel Electric Heat Fuel Electric Heat CHP) CHP) Today's Enginenew Bldg.

37%

41%

0.7

0.89

0.29

0.48

The gap in knowledge: The lack of knowledge concerning the use and performance of CHP plants in Greece In Greece, CHP has been under development during recent years and serious attempts for CHP applications have been made after the issue of Directive 2004/8/EC of February 11th, 2004. Thus, a few plants have been installed and are now operating, some of which have now exceeded their â&#x20AC;&#x153;pilot phaseâ&#x20AC;?. However, district heating applications have been constructed in the cities of Ptolemaida, Kozani, Megalopoli and Amynteo where the distance between the station and the recipients is usually around 10 km. In other towns, the designs of such district heating systems have not been made yet. Concerning smaller scale CHP plants, apart from their existence for only a small period of time, there are other factors that prevent their development. These include, the wide variety of technologies used, the fuel used and the pollutant preventing technologies. Diversity along with the short period of time that CHP technology has been used is a great obstacle towards achieving the knowledge of the use and performance of such units. Due to the fact that CHP is practically new and not yet widely used in Greece technology, many users such as industries, hotels and hospitals are rather sceptical towards using such a plant. In order to promote this technology, specific aspects of CHP plants relevant to their performance are to be highlighted. Guidelines are presented, giving instructions to matters such as which applications are likely to have more benefits, how the efficiency can contribute to the overall performance of the plant. Other matters include the electricity to heat ratio EHR and how this contributes to the reduction of fuel used and GHG emissions. In particular all those information are going to be estimated in the axis of Greece, using real data from currently operating CHP plants.

2.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND/OR HYPOTHESIS The research questions help determine what evidence needs to be collected to answer the research problem, whilst also setting the boundaries for the practical and theoretical problems by stating what is part of the research problem and what is not. A correct definition of the research questions will define the problem and a clearer picture of it will emerge as the researcher will be fine-tuning and investigating the data collected. 1. What are the current GHG emission levels in Greece? 2. To what extent have CHP units been used? 3. What are the drawbacks that have so far prevented the utilization of CHP plants? 4. What is the amount of reduction in emissions that can be achieved using cogeneration?

2.5 SUMMARY In the second chapter, research definition is achieved via presenting and analysing the theoretical and the practical problems. In the context of the theoretical problem, the status of CO2 emissions in Greece is presented, whereas the practical problem defines the amount of GHG reduction which is achieved with the use of CHP plants. The research questions led the research towards the discovery of an answer for the research problem.

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter the research process plan has been worked out. Steps followed are set in order, providing the reader with the logical algorithm that the writer has chosen in order to cover the subject and come to the desirable output. The computational algorithm is analytically presented so that it allows for an extended description of what steps will be followed and what needs to be done in a logical order to reach a final conclusion about the aim of the research problem. Each block in the flow diagram specifies the calculations that will be needed for finding the reduction of GHG emissions and fuel consumption from the use of CHP units. The calculations include plants that have been installed already and predictions are made upon other plants in the industrial and tertiary sectors. 3.2 RESEARCH PROCESS PLAN The research process plan presents the integration of CHP techniques in the industrial sector and in a part of the non residential building sector. Furthermore the calculation steps towards finding the new environmental performance is given throughout, aiming towards reduced GHG emissions as well as a reduction in the amount of primary energy used. The reduction in GHG emissions constitutes the main research problem and thus the computational algorithm has as scope to develop an analytical representation of that. The plan is formed starting from the present setting, finding and using appropriate data, for theory verification, checking the application of CHP technology performance, calculating the environmental performance of current Greek plants and estimating the potential reductions from further use in other plants. This works ultimate purpose is to find a quantifiable answer to the main research question, which is â&#x20AC;&#x153;What is the amount of reduction in emissions that can be achieved using cogeneration?â&#x20AC;?. The algorithm of the research process plan includes inputs, outputs and constant parameters/considerations. The inputs are data retrieved from literature review, public records as well as technical/performance characteristics of both CHP plants and conventional power plants. Outputs include results of estimations/calculations.

Inputs include: •

the GHG emission levels at national level,

•

the number of CHP plants currently in operation,

•

fuel consumption of conventional plants for the industrial and tertiary sectors,

•

GHG emissions of conventional plants for the industrial and tertiary sectors,

•

energy performance of CHP plants,

•

fuel consumption of conventional plants,

•

recording of possible CHP applications in the industrial and commercial sectors

Outputs include: •

GHG emissions i.e. the GHG emissions of a CHP unit in the industrial sector,

•

estimated GHG emissions i.e. the GHG emissions of a future CHP unit in industrial sector,

•

potential saving in GHG emissions i.e. the GHG emissions of a future CHP unit at a national level,

•

fuel consumption in an existing plant

•

estimated fuel saving for an existing plant

•

estimated potential fuel savings due to future CHP units at a national level

•

contribution to the reduction of the national GHG emission level

Constant parameters/considerations include: •

the net calorific value of lignite is an average value of values of PPC’s power plants of Ptolemais, Aminteo, Megalopolis, Florina, Drama and Elassona,

•

we assume average prices of Mazut No1 (1500) High/Low Sulphur and Mazut No3 (3500) of both High/Low Sulphur, where it is not stated which of the two is used

•

Emission is measured in 1999 and forecasted up to 2010. Fuel mix is taken for year 2005(Eurostat provides in 2008 data up to 2005), while Greece’s fuel mix is based on 2008 date. Due to difficulty in finding all the aforementioned data for the same year we assume that no dramatically changes have been done during year 1999 and 2008.

•

We assume that the fuel used after the installation of a CHP plant is natural gas.

â&#x20AC;˘

In tertiary sector assumptions are made that 60% of the thermal energy is produced using diesel oil as fuel and 40% natural gas, while we also consider 80% efficiency of diesel oil boilers and 85% efficiency of natural gas boilers.

The steps followed in the research process plan are presented with the following order: 1. the number of CHP applications in operation - general data 2. their energy performance (electricity-heat load â&#x20AC;&#x201C;efficiency) 3. shorting of the applications 4. find typical values of consumption for particular sectors in industry-tertiary 5. estimate the energy needs prior to installation of the CHP 6. amount of fuel use prior is estimated 7. amount of GHG emissions prior is estimated 8. amount of GHG emissions after is estimated 9. comparison is carried out between steps 7 and 8 10. combining the current national potential and step 9-due to current operating CHP units 11. combining the current national potential and step 9-due to future scenarios CHP units The aforementioned steps of the research process plan are presented in Figure 3.1 hereafter.

Start

Find/calculate useful data

GHG national emission levels

CHP applications in operation Electrical and thermal energy used operation

Consumption of Greek industry

Consumption of Greek tertiary sector (hotelshealth care blds)

Electrical and thermal energy used operation

CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions factors

amount of fuel used

CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions before and after CHP installation

Contribution to reduction of national GHG emissions level due to CHP plants in operation

Contribution to reduction of national GHG emissions level for 100% CHP implementation in industry

Contribution to reduction of national GHG emissions level for 100% CHP implementation in tertiary sector

Potential GHG emission reductionpenetration scenarios of 25%, 50% and 75 %

Figure 3.1: The research process plan. (Source: The author).

3.3 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS The present research is not conducted in a laboratory or institutional premises and has not received any means of funding or any other kind of provision from a public or private sector. The author has made use of technical and non-technical literature available to the public and has used public data that have been published in Greece throughout the National Gazette. Data related to specific companies that have currently adopted the CHP technology to meet their energy needs could have been included but such was avoided in order to protect the personal data of those companies. Instead an estimation of energy consumption was conducted based on national designs from the Hellenic Ministry of Development Reliable papers, publications and designs are the main input of this work, making the work trustworthy and the conclusions extracted of adequate gravity. The conclusions of this work have the potential to be a great motivation for other companies from the industrial and tertiary sectors to adopt the CHP technology. Additionally, the work can provide information on how much environmental help can be given to the major phenomenon of global warming and on the savings that can be achieved in order to slow the depletion of natural resources at a national level. It does not contain data or issues that can affect negatively personally or legally any person and thus it does not involve ethical issues.

3.4 SUMMARY In the third chapter the steps and a schematic approach of the research process plan was presented. The analysis answers the research questions of the work, which is by how much GHG emissions and fuel can be reduced at a national level, through the adoption of CHP technology. Estimations were made comparing conventional means of meeting the energy needs in the industrial and commercial sectors. The Research problemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s inputs, outputs, constant parameters/considerations as well as the steps followed in the research process plan were presented.

CHAPTER 4

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

4.1 INTRODUCTION The fourth chapter contains the analysis of the findings gathered. A review of CHP units operating now is presented together with some characteristics of the plants. The GHG emission problem is addressed via presenting the levels of GHG emissions for the period of 1990-2000 and estimates are given for the years 2000-2010. The current situation of energy consumption in industry and in the tertiary sector in general is presented in order to define the necessity for energy saving in those sectors. The energy consumption of each plant currently operating is calculated, along with the GHG emission estimates for before and after the installation of a CHP plant. Energy and emission reductions so far gained from currently operating plants are presented and then penetration scenarios of 25%, 50% and 75% are estimated for further penetration into separately industrial tertiary sector. Cumulative cases for industrial and tertiary sector in comparison to Greek GHG emissions are presented in the end of the chapter.

4.2 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS: THE FINDINGS Final energy demand in Greece in 2000 totalled 18.9 Mtoe, of which 24% was used in industry, 39% for transportation and 37% by the residential and tertiary sector. The mean annual increase rate for the time period 1990–2000 is estimated at 2.5%. The per capita final energy consumption increased by 20% over the time period 1990–2000 (1.45 and 1.74 toe/cap, respectively), while the respective figure at EU-level is estimated at 9% (from 2.54 toe/cap in 1990 to 2.78 toe/cap in 2000). All three sectors increased their energy use over the time period 1990–2000, with the residential and tertiary sector showing the most significant increase (by 44%), followed by transportation (by 24%) and industry (by 16%) (Figure 4.1). This resulted in a total increase of 28% between 1990 and 2000.

Figure 4.1: Final energy consumption by the economic sector (source: Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, 2002)

4.2.1 Energy consumption in industry In 2000, the total energy consumption of the industrial sector totalled 4.6 Mtoe (Figure 4.2), which equals 24% of the total energy demand in Greece. The main structural changes regarding energy consumption in industry refer to the gradual replacement of petroleum products by coal products (a trend almost solely attributed to the increased use of steam coal by the cement industry) during the time period 1980â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1995 and to the penetration of natural gas for thermal uses and for use as feedstock in the chemical industry. In 2000, oil products accounted for approximately 44% of the total energy needs of the sector, compared to 46% in 1995 and 69% in 1980. Electricity consumption has steadily increased since 1993. In 2000, it reached a total of approximately 1.2 Mtoe or 25% of the total energy use of the sector.

Figure 4.2: Final energy consumption in industry by energy carrier (source: Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, 2002) 28

4.2.2 Energy consumption in residential and tertiary sector In 2000, the energy use in the residential and tertiary sectors totalled 7 Mtoe or 37% of the total energy demand in Greece, compared to 4.8 Mtoe in 1990 (Figure 4.3). This energy was primarily used for space heating and cooling, and domestic hot water production in residential, public and commercial premises. Other energy uses were in the form of electricity for appliances/equipment and for the operation of building services systems in residential, public and commercial premises. The figure also includes energy use in agriculture. The changes in the energy consumption of the sector reflect both the improving living standards of Greek society and an increase in the number of housing units. These two factors have resulted in improved levels of heating and, recently, of cooling, and a rise in the ownership of home electrical appliances. The floor area of commercial premises has also increased substantially, thus contributing to an increase in demand for electricity for ventilation, lighting and other office equipment.

Figure 4.3: Final energy consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors by energy carrier (source: Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, 2002)

4.2.3 National levels of GHG emissions for the period of 1990-2010 Figures 4.4 and 4.5 present summary results for the emission estimates for CO2, SO2 and NOx for the years 1990-2010. For the period 1990-2000 data are real, while for years 2001-2010 data presented are an estimation and have been calculated using the function â&#x20AC;&#x153;forecastâ&#x20AC;? of Microsoft-Excel. From 1990 until 2000 the amount of carbon dioxide emitted steadily increased with an average increase rate of 3% (except for years 1995 and 1999) and the 29

amount of emissions is expected to reach almost 130,000 Kt in 2010. Industry contributes at a rate of 9% to the total CO2 emissions, mainly due to the industrial processes(mainly the production of cement, lime, aluminium and ammonia).

CO2 Emission for the period of 1990-2010 140,000 120,000 100,000

80,000 CO2

60,000 40,000 20,000

19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10

year

Figure 4.4: CO2 emission levels for the period of 1990-2000 (source: Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, National Observatory of Athens,2002) and for the period of 2001-2010 forecast by author.

The industrial sector is responsible for 3% of total SO2 emissions and these derive from the production of sulphuric acid, cement and aluminium. In 1999, total SO2 emissions were approximately 11% higher than 1990 levels. The decrease of emissions in 1994 was mainly due to decrease of sulphur content in heavy fuel oil used in industry at the two largest urban areas; Athens and Thessaloniki. In 2002, total SO2 emissions were lower by 2.1 % compared to 1990 levels. This was mainly due to the decrease of emission in electricity generation sector (-12%), especially from the unit of Megalopolis, as a result of the operation of the new desulphurization there(MIN.ENV., NOA, 2002).

SO2 and NOx emissions for the period of 1990-2010 600 500

400 SO2 NOx

300 200 100 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

year

Figure 4.5: SO2 and NOx emission levels for the period of 1990-2000 (source: Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works, National Observatory of Athens, 2002) and for the period of 2001-2010 forecast by author.

Oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2 are created by fossil fuel combustion lighting, biomass fires and, in the stratosphere, from nitrous oxide. NOx emissions appear to be steadily increasing with an average increase rate approximately at 0.8 %.

4.2.4 CHP plants currently in operation in Greece Table 4.1 present the current situation of the CHP units operating in Greece and contains information on estimated thermal and electricity power, efficiency, location of the plants and fuel used. In the following Table 4.1, fifty three companies appear to have installed a CHP plant and among them are heavy industrial units such as refineries and iron and steel production companies. If we group the companies per type of industry the greatest installed power is the iron and steel production with the amount of 363.5 MW and refineries follow with the amount of 139.3 MW, while Food, Drink and Milk Industries 63.9MW installed.

Table 4.1: CHP Units in operation in Greece (source: Hellenic Ministry of Development, 2008)

S/N

1 2 3

COMPANY Hellenic Petroleum S.A. Ceramic Manufacturing Kothali

POWER (MW)

ESTIMATED THERMAL POWER (MWH/year)

ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL POWER (MWH/year)

OVERALL EFFICIENCY %

LOCATION

FUEL

Aspropirgos-Attica

Byproducts

1.131

Chrisoupoli-Kavala

N.G.

Ceramic Manufacturing

Schimatari-Biotia

N.G.

Textile processing

Seres

Μazut 3500/N.G.

11.42

Thessaloniki

Steam

Xanthi

Μazut 3500/N.G.

1.2

11,765

10,161

TYPE OF INDUSTRY

Refineries

Orestiada

Μazut 3500

8 9

ELFIKO Hellenic Sugar Industry S.A. (EBZ) Phosphoric Fertilizers Industry (BFL) Hellenic Sugar Industry S.A. (EBZ) Hellenic Sugar Industry S.A. (EBZ) Phosphoric Fertilizers Industry (BFL) Μaillis

18.868 2.1

Kavala Inofita-Biotia

Steam N.G.

Αmilim Hellas

4.5

Thessaloniki

N.G.

Food, Drink and Milk Industries Large Volume Inorganic Chemicals-Ammonia, acids and fertilizers Polymers Food, Drink and Milk Industries

Thermi Seron

16.5

Thermi-Seres

N.G.

Energy Companies

4 5 6 7

147,931

105,130

80.17

Food, Drink and Milk Industries Large Volume Inorganic Chemicals-Ammonia, acids and fertilizers Food, Drink and Milk Industries

S/N

12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19

COMPANY Hellenic Sugar Industry S.A. (EBZ) Hellenic Sugar Industry S.A. (EBZ) Corinth Pipeworks S.A. Alluminium of Greece S.A. Alluminium of Greece S.A. Alluminium of Greece S.A. Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP SA)

POWER (MW)

ESTIMATED THERMAL POWER (MWH/year)

ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL POWER (MWH/year)

OVERALL EFFICIENCY %

LOCATION

FUEL

Larissa

Î&#x153;azut /N.G.

Plati-Imathia

N.G.

Thisvi-Biotia

Diesel

125

1,350,000

920,000

Biotia

N.G.

125

1,350,000

920,000

Biotia

N.G.

Biotia

N.G.

154,400

112,000

79.2

2.72

EXALCO Phosphoric Fertilizers Industry (BFL)

2.35

COCA COLA

1.4

Motoroil

Chalibas S.A.

Psitaleia

N.G.

Larissa

N.G.

16,468

Kavala

Steam

6,160

5,610

77.2

N.G.

232,140

145,942

93.5

Schimatari-Biotia Agioi TheodoroiKorinthia

Byproducts

11.5

169,000

77,000

76.9

Ionia-Thessaloniki

N.G.

TYPE OF INDUSTRY

Food, Drink and Milk Industries Food, Drink and Milk Industries Iron and Steel Production Iron and Steel Production Iron and Steel Production Iron and Steel Production Common Waste Water and Waste Gas Treatment management systems Iron and Steel Production Large Volume Inorganic Chemicals-Ammonia, acids and fertilizers Food, Drink and Milk Industries Refineries Iron and Steel Production

POWER (MW)

ESTIMATED THERMAL POWER (MWH/year)

ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL POWER (MWH/year)

OVERALL EFFICIENCY %

54,780 4,351

82,170 3,266

65 83.6

S/N

COMPANY

24 25

Paper Mills of Thace Athinaion

9.9 0.408

Motoroil

32.1

ΕΤΕΜ

0.225

28 29

9.5 1.055

Phisis S.A. ΒΕΑΚ S.A. Hellenic Petroleum S.A.

5.5

341,600

46,358

Thermi Dramas

206,206

32 33 34

Delta S.A. ΡΑΡ HOTELS Motoroil

2 0.065 17

35 36

Giotas S.A. Genesis University of Athens Architech Energy Greenhouse of Drama Asti S.A.

37 38 39 40

LOCATION

FUEL

Magana-Xanthi Athens Agioi TheodoroiKorinthia

N.G. N.G. Byproducts

Magoula-Attica

N.G.

Xanthi Komotini

N.G. Biomass N.G.

75.3

Thessaloniki

Steam

115,278

Drama

N.G./Diesel

14,970 701

12,040 415

86.1 88.5

Attica Thessaloniki Korithia

N.G. N.G. LPG

0.37 0.725

7,460 3,743

2,150 3,049

71.7

Grevena Thessaloniki

Byproducts N.G.

2,716

5,993

5,258

85.6

Athens

N.G.

University

4.965

23,735

17,282

84.9

Imathia

N.G.

Plant Industries

4.8 0.3

23,735

17,282

84.9

Drama Athens

N.G. N.G.

Plant Industries Hotels

690

1,051

91.2

68,760

TYPE OF INDUSTRY

Paper Hotels Refineries Iron and Steel Production Common Waste Water and Waste Gas Treatment management systems Ceramic Manufacturing Refineries Energy Companies Food, Drink and Milk Industries Hotels Refineries Wood Processing Industries Hospitals

S/N

41 42 43 44 45

46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

COMPANY

Alfa Wood DEPA S.A. (Public Gas Corporation) Kavala Oil Academy of Athens Mitera Hospital 251 General Hospital of the Hellenic Air Force Bright S.A Genimatas Hospital Evagelismos Hospital Sismanoglio Hospital ΚΑΤ Hospital Attikon Hospital Hospital of the Hellenic Navy

POWER (MW)

ESTIMATED THERMAL POWER (MWH/year)

ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL POWER (MWH/year)

OVERALL EFFICIENCY %

0.75 15.5 17.67

LOCATION

FUEL

TYPE OF INDUSTRY

Larissa

Biomass

Wood Processing Industries

Revithoussa-Attica Kavala

N.G. N.G.

Energy Companies Refineries

77,000

82,500

1.49 0.56

4,500

3,570

87.8

Athens Attica

N.G. N.G.

University Hospitals

1.4

8,600

6,500

85.6

Athens

N.G.

Hospitals

0.125

714

427

89.3

Athens

Propane

1.3

5,264

7,902

61.65

Athens

N.G.

Hospitals

1.5

15,195

10,839

60.05

Athens

N.G.

Hospitals

1.2 1.2 1.65

4,916 5,486 10,685

6,875 7,817 10,706

60.03 61.27 75.93

Athens Athens Athens

N.G. N.G. N.G.

Hospitals Hospitals Hospitals

Attica

N.G.

Hospitals

0.5

Electrical Appliances

4.2.5 Consumption of Greek Industry The consumption of Greek industry is shown in table 4.14 and concerns years from 1990 to 2005 as provided by Eurostat-New Cronos Database-Theme 8:Energy. For the purposes of this project, the year 2005 will be taken as the year in which all energy savings are going be estimated. Using the information provided in this table, fuel used to cover Greek industrial activity will help to illustrate the energy savings using CHP technology. Energy savings will include both less fuel resources and less GHG emissions due to fuel combustion.

Coke

Brown Coal Briquettes

Refinery Gas

LPG

Gas / Diesel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Other Petroleum Products

Kerosenes Jet Fuels

Natural Gas (toe)

Electrical Energy (Mtoe)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Lignite & Derivatives

time

Thou sands of tons

Hard Coal & Derivatives

Table 4.2: Greek industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fuel mix for years 1990-2005(source: Eurostat, 2008).

1,420.0 1,501.0 1,403.0 1,369.0 1,383.0 1,375.0 1,322.0 1,223.0 1,259.0 1,028.0 1,115.0 1,230.0 955.0 795.0 776.0 564.0

615.0 507.0 392.0 569.0 475.0 465.0 554.0 418.0 362.0 235.0 460.0 252.0 367.0 302.0 292.0 337.0

41.0 25.0 19.0 16.0 17.0 11.0 13.0 20.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

100.0 75.0 13.0 17.0 69.0 57.0 51.0 0 0 0 79.0 80.0 105.0 107.0 97.0 113.0

28.0 22.0 25.0 24.0 27.0 22.0 25.0 34.0 34.0 7.0 11.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00

101.0 125.0 148.0 158.0 186.0 222.0 256.0 289.0 328.0 315.0 305.0 310.0 298.0 304.0 273.0 254.0

354.0 192.0 290.0 296.0 320.0 457.0 490.0 500.0 525.0 560.0 504.0 500.0 500.0 550.0 227.0 439.0

1,152.0 1,107.0 1,096.0 910.0 841.0 957.0 1,067.0 1,045.0 928.0 769.0 882.0 830.0 847.0 778.0 801.0 667.0

102.0 96.0 117.0 171.0 198.0 262.0 279.0 305.0 322.0 343.0 312.0 357.0 430.0 430.0 547.0 564.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 33.0 129.0 190.0 244.0 294.0 309.0 328.0 373.0 426.0

1,041.0 1,023.0 1,010.0 976.0 1,002.0 1,037.0 1,043.0 1,070.0 1,110.0 1,109.0 1,165.0 1,183.0 1,215.0 1,217.0 1,203.0 1,240.0

4.2.6 Typical consumption of the Greek Tertiary Sector In table 4.1 the current plants that have a CHP plant are shown. However, using the literature for the relevant sector the overall consumption of both health care buildings and hotels will be examined. In this way an overall estimation will be achieved and energy and emission reductions can be quantified. Table 4.3: Tertiary sector plants, with an installed CHP unit. (source: the author) Tertiary Sector Hospitals Hotels

Number of CHP units 9 3

4.2.6.1 Health Care Buildings

Health care buildings, including hospitals, clinics and health centers represent the lowest percentage, 0.05% of the total Hellenic non residential building stock, while they have the highest energy consumption per unit floor area when compared to other non residential buildings. The high energy consumption is due to the high use of ventilation loads and continuous 24 hour operation for the majority of the facilities. Year of construction has an impact on the energy consumption of the building and thus it is taken into account and an average value is assumed in the final stage of calculations.

In table 4.4 the distribution of Greek health care buildings for different construction periods and climatic zones is presented. The average electrical and thermal energy consumption for one health care building to cover its annual energy needs is approximately 0.26 GWh and 0.4 GWh respectively.

Table 4.4: Distribution of Greek health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods (source: Gaglia A., Balaras C., et.al.,2006). Distribution of the Hellenic health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods and climatic zones year of construction Pre-1980 (1981â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2001) (2002â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2010) Average Total

Average annual electrical and thermal energy consumption (kWh/m2)in Hellenic Health Care buildings for the different climatic zones at different construction periods

Number of buildings

Floor area (m2)

Electrical energy consumption (kWh/m2)

Thermal energy consumption (kWh/m2)

Electrical energy consumption (MWh)

Thermal energy consumption (MWh)

1,566 117 59 1,742

3,394,400 1,004,400 580,041 4,978,841

90 99 107 99 -

145 134 129 136 -

305,496 99,436 62,064 155,665 467.00

492,188 134,590 74,825 233,868 701.60

4.2.6.2 Hotels Hotels represent about 0.26 % of the total Greek building stock, which is a quite small percentage compared to other categories of non residential buildings. On the other hand, hotels exhibit very high energy consumption that is mainly due to space AC, cooking and high sanitary hot water needs. The hotels are initially classified in two categories according to their operation period, namely: summer hotels with operating periods from April to October and annual hotels which operate throughout the year. Similarly to health care buildings, year of construction has an impact on the energy consumption of the building and thus it is taken into account and an average value is assumed in the final stage of calculations. Another factor that is taken into account is the seasonal use of a large number of hotels in Greece. This is interpreted as a use of seven instead of twelve months per year. Calculations in appendix I (section 4.2.6.2) come to the conclusion that the total electrical energy of the Greek hotels reach the amount of 2.22 GWh per year and the relevant thermal energy is of the amount of 1.78 GWh per year. The average electrical and thermal energy consumption for one Greek hotel irreverently its seasonal use and its year of construction is 0.741GWh electrical energy and 0.594 GWh thermal energy.

4.2.7 Typical emissions of GHG In order to estimate the reduction of the GHG emissions, we firstly have to estimate, based on the typical consumptions as calculated in section 4.2.5, the emitted CO2, SO2 and NOx that are being produced on an annual basis due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Table 4.22 provides the amount of extracted pollutant in g per kg of combusted fuel and is an extract given by the Hellenic Ministry of Development in an annex in the “Energy investment guide” of the Operational Program Competitiveness at 2002. However, some fuels are not mentioned in the Energy Investment Guide and GHG emissions are calculated by the method implied by IEA in “CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion-Beyond 2020 Documentation (2008 Edition).

Table 4.10: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel). (source: Hellenic Ministry of Development, 2002).

Pollutant emissions (g/kg fuel) Fuel CO2

SO2

NOx

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) Low Sulphur

3,175

5.363

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) High Sulphur

3,109

5.251

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) Low Sulphur

3,175

5.363

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) High Sulphur

3,091

5.221

Diesel

3,142

0.7

2.384

LPG

3,030

0.0

2.102

Natural Gas

2,715

0.0

2.102

4.2.7.1 Typical GHG emissions for industrial sector 4.2.7.1.2 CO2 emission estimations before and after CHP installation We estimate the CO2 before CHP installation using table 4.2 Greek industry’s fuel mix for year 2005 , CO2 emission factors, national electricity share to estimate the mass of CO2 produced due to 39

industrial e

consumption

electrical

energy

which

reaches

the

amount

M CO 2 = 7,783,121.64 tn CO2 at annual basis. The mass of CO2 due to direct fuel consumption of

fuels used in industry as shown in the table 4.2 is estimated summing up the mass CO2 of when consuming solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.

solid Those amounts are d M CO 2 = 1,625,432.90 tn CO 2 for solid fuel consisting of hard coal, lignite, liquid coal and briquettes, d M CO 2 = 5,244,586.15 tn CO 2 for liquid fuels consisting of gas/diesel oil,

residual d

fuel

oil,

petroleum

products

and

kerosene-jet

fuel

and

gas M CO 2 = 1,925,341.91 tn CO 2 consisting of refinery gas, lpg and natural gas. Those amounts are

summed up in

M CO 2 = 8,795,360.96 tn CO 2 which is the overall mass of CO2 due to fuel

consumption in Greek industry. And the total CO2 produced due to industrial activity in Greece without using a CHP plant is the sum of the mass of CO2 due to electricity consumption and due to fuel consumption and reaches the amount of M CO2 = 16,578,482 .60 tn CO 2 annually.

On the other hand to estimate the CO2 emissions after the installation we estimate the new mass of CO2 when covering the same energy needs using natural gas instead of other fuel. Therefore the amount of thermal energy is estimated as

Qbefore = 33,026.367 GWh and electrical is

Ebefore = 14,421.20GWh from which two amounts we estimate the mass of natural gas required M n' . g . = 4,229.73 k tn and the extracted CO2emissions from this amount of natural gas is

M ' CO2 = 11,217,127.844 tn CO 2 per annum when installing CHP plants.

The gain in CO2 is the difference between the prior CHP emissions M CO2 and the M ' CO2 emissions after which is M gained CO2 = 5,361,354.75 tn CO 2 or reduction of 32.34%.

CO2 (in Ktn) 118,000 116,000 114,000 112,000 110,000 108,000 106,000 104,000 102,000 100,000 98,000

CO2

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

115,971.25

104,754.12

Figure 4.6a: CO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in industries and total

Greek emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn). CO2 (in Ktn) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

CO2

Total Greek industrial emissions

Total Greek industrial emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

16,578.43

11,217.13

Figure 4.6b: CO2 emissions(total Greek industrial emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

industrial emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

4.2.7.1.2 SO2 emission estimations before and after CHP installation

Relatively to the method that CO2 emission were estimated the mass of SO2 produced due to electricity production is e M SO 2 = 136,499.54 tn SO2 and the direct mass of SO2 produced due combustion d

the

sum

gas M SO 2 = 1005.84 tn SO 2 which is

of d

solid d liquid M SO 2 = 2,690.82 tn SO 2 , M SO 2 = 6,629.04 tn SO 2 and

M SO 2 = 10,325.700 tn SO 2 .

The total SO2 produced due to industrial activity in Greece without using a CHP plant is M SO2 = 146,825.24224 tn SO2 . After the CHP installation and due to the fact that the CHP plant will be fired using natural gas that produces no sulfur emissions the amount of M SO2 = 146,825.24224 tn SO2 is considered as the SO2 emissions saved amount.

SO2(in Ktn) 600

500

400

300

200

100

SO2

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

513.50

366.67

Figure 4.7a: SO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in industries and total

Greek emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

SO2(in Ktn) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

SO2

Total Greek industrial emissions

Total Greek industrial emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

146.83

0.00

Figure 4.7b: SO2 emissions(total Greek industrial emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

industrial emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn). 4.2.7.1.3 NOx emission estimations before and after CHP installation

Estimations for on mass of NOx emissions prior to CHP plant due to electricity consumption is e

M NOx = 31,518.369 tn NOx and

M NOx = 8,000 tn NOx .Thus the overall mass of NOx emission resulting from Greek industrial

NOx

emissions

due

fuel

consumption

activity is M NOx = 39,518.37 tn NOx . After the installation of CHP unit we have that the new mass of natural gas required to cover electrical and thermal needs is given as referred in SO2 and CO2 estimation paragraphs is M n' . g . = 4,229.73 k tn of natural gas and the extracted emissions from this amount of natural gas is n. g . M NOX ' = 8,890.89 tn of NOx emission .

Therefore the gain in NOX is the difference between the prior CHP emissions which is M gained CO2 = 30,627.48 tn NOx or less emissions per 77.5%.

NOx(in Ktn) 350 345 340 335 330 325 320 315 310 305 300

NOx

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

346.97

316.34

Figure 4.8a : NOx emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in industries and total

Greek emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

NOx(in Ktn) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

NOx

Total Greek industrial emissions

Total Greek industrial emissions-after CHP scenario in industries

39.52

8.89

Figure 4.8b : NOx emissions(total Greek industrial emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

industrial emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn). 44

4.2.7.2 Typical GHG emissions of tertiary sector

The overall amount of electrical energy on annual basis of tertriary sector is 2,691.15 GWh due to 467GWh from health care buildings and 2,224.15 GWh due to hotels. The emissions CO2, SO2 and NOx e

due

annual

electrical

energy

tertiary

are

M CO 2 = 2,287,474.09 tnCO 2 , e M SO 2 = 41,712.76tn SO and e M NOx = 3,229.38tn NO X .

In the estimations, assumptions are made that 60% of the thermal energy is produced using diesel oil as fuel and 40% natural gas, while we also consider 80% efficiency of diesel oil boilers and 85% efficiency of natural gas boilers. The estimated mass of natural gas and diesel oil that are used in order to produce thermal energy of 2,485.48 GWh is M n. g . = 88,627.67 tn natural gas and M diesel = 154,698.11 tn diesel oil These amounts of fuel produce GHG emissions which are d M CO2 = 726.69108,288.67Ktn CO2 d

M SO 2 = 108,288.67 kg SO 2 and d M NOx = 0.56 Ktn NOx .

Consequently, the overall amount of emissions deriving from direct fuel consumptions and electrical energy of tertiary sector are M CO 2 = 3,014,159.65 K tn CO 2 , M SO 2 = 41.82 Ktn SO 2 and M NOx = 3.78 K tn NOx . The

estimated

emissions

after

the

installation

CHP

plants

are

' ' ' M CO 2 = 1,252.9 K tn CO 2 , M SO 2 = 0 Ktn SO 2 and M NOx = 0.97 Ktn NOx due to the use of natural

gas 461,472.23 tn as fuel.

Estimated GHG emissions prior and after the installation of a CHP plant in tertiary sector is presented in figure 4.9, 4.10 and 4.11.

CO2(Ktn) 116,000

115,500

115,000

114,500

114,000

113,500

113,000

CO2

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

115,971.25

114,209.98

Figure 4.9a : CO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total Greek

emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn). CO2(Ktn) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

CO2

Total Greek tertriary emissions

Total Greek tertriary emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

3,014.16

1,252.90

Figure 4.9b : CO2 emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

tertiary emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

NOx(Ktn) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

NOx

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

346.97

344.15

Figure 4.10a : NOx emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total

Greek emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn). NOx(Ktn) 5

NOx

Total Greek tertriary emissions

Total Greek tertriary emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

3.78

0.97

Figure 4.10b : NOx emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

tertiary emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

SO2(Ktn)

500

400

300

200

100

SO2

Total Greek emissions

Total Greek emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

513.50

471.68

Figure 4.11a : SO2 emissions(total Greek emissions before CHP scenario in tertiary and total

Greek emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

SO2(Ktn) 50

SO2

Total Greek tertriary emissions

Total Greek tertriary emissions-after CHP scenario in tertriary

41.82

0.00

Figure 4.11b : SO2 emissions(total Greek tertiary emissions before CHP scenario and total Greek

tertiary emissions after CHP scenario in Ktn).

4.2.8 Emissions and emission reductions of operating Greek CHP plants

Summing the electrical energy of CHP plants currently operating in both industrial and tertiary sector we have the amount of Eel=2,736,428MWh and Eth=4,234,260 MWh. The estimated emissions prior to the use of those CHP plants in the particular industries, hotels and hospitals are e M CO 2 = 2,325,964 tn CO 2 , e M SO 2 = 42,415 tn SO 2 and e M NOx = 3,284 tn NO X . The overall electrical energy that is been consumed due to industrial production which amount is 14.421 TWh while the relevant amount only for industries as given in table 4.1-CHP Units in operation is 2.68 GWh. Therefore units consume 0.019 % of the energy of the overall electrical energy of the industrial sector. This percentage will help us make the assumptions that the amount of fuel used by those industrial units is of the percentage of 0.019% of the overall quantities of fuel . Thus the estimated amounts of GHG emissions due to direct fuel combustion is d

M CO 2 = 115,474.93 tn CO 2 , d M SO 2 = 130.141 tn SO 2 and d M NOx = 150 tn NOx .

The overall amount as a sum of direct and electrical of GHG emission if those CHP plants werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t installed in Greece is MCO2= 2,441,438.93 tn CO 2 ,MSO2= 42,545.14 tn SO 2 and MNOx= 3,434.00 tn NO X . While the GHG emissions of CHP plants currently in operation are for the amount of natural gas ' ' equal to M n' . g . = 621,404.21 tn are M CO 2 = 1,687,112.42 tn CO 2 , M SO 2 = 0 Ktn SO 2 ' and M NOx = 1,306.19 tn NOx .

CO2(in tn) 3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

CO2

Total Greek before CHP installation of operating units

Total Greek GHG savings from operating CHP plants

2,441,438.93

1,687,112.42

Figure 4.12 : CO2 emissions of operating units prior and before their installation.

NOx(in tn) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

NOx

Total Greek before CHP installation of operating units

Total Greek GHG savings from operating CHP plants

3,434.00

1,306.19

Figure 4.13 : NOx emissions of operating units prior and before their installation.

SO2(in tn) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

Total Greek before CHP installation of operating Total Greek GHG savings from operating CHP units plants 42,545.14

SO2

0.00

Figure 4.14 : SO2 emissions of operating units prior and before their installation.

Efficiency% -Heat to electricity ratio 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

Heat to electricity ratio

Figure 4.15 : Efficiency % to Heat-to â&#x20AC;&#x201C;electricity ration of Greek operating CHP plants.

The ratio of heat to electricity required by one consumer may vary according to seasonal and/or daily changes. It is the ratio that shows the thermal energy to electricity required to meet the energy needs of one site. Additionally many CHP plants utilize exhaust gases to improve the heat to electricity ration which also means even greater environmental benefits. The greater the needs in heat are the greater the heat to electricity ratio is which practically means that is indeed essential that the facility should use CHP technology to benefit. It is interesting to investigate the factor heat to electricity ratio and the overall efficiency of the CHP plant. Such an attempt is been presented in figure 4.15 using data from table 4.1 which contains Greek operating CHP plants according to Ministry of Development-2008. in this figure it is presented that the average of heat to electricity ratio mainly varies around the value of 1.25 with corresponding efficiency value around 80-85%.

4.3 CHP penetration scenarios in industrial and tertiary sector Paragraph 4.2 presents savings in industrial and tertiary sector at it whole entity. It is rather interesting to calculate penetration scenarios of 25%, 50% and 75% and see how these percentages have the potential to contribute to the overall effort of Greece towards GHG emissions reduction. Those are illustrated in the figures 4.17-4.25 presented hereafter. In those figures saving percentage is presented in tertiary, industrial and combined in comparison to national GHG levels.

CO2 emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 3,500 3,000 2,500

(Ktn)

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

CO2(Ktn)

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

3,014.16

1,252.90

1,693.22

1,820.31

2,573.85

58.43%

43.82%

39.61%

14.61%

Percentage of reduction

Figure 4.17 : CO2 emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-75-50-25%. CO2 emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 (Ktn)

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

CO2(Ktn) Percentage of reduction

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

16,578.43

11,217.13

12,557.47

13,897.81

15,238.14

32.34%

24.25%

16.17%

8.08%

CO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 120,000 100,000 80,000 (Ktn)

60,000 40,000 20,000 0

CO2(Ktn)

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

115,971.25

12,470.03

14,250.68

15,718.11

17,811.99

6.14%

4.61%

3.34%

1.54%

Percentage of reduction

Figure 4.19 : CO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with CO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-5075%. SO2 emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions in industrial tertiary when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 50

30 (Ktn) 20

0 SO2(Ktn) Percentage of reduction

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

41.82

0.00

10.46

20.91

After25% 31.37

100.00%

75.00%

50.00%

25.00%

SO2 emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 150

100 (Ktn) 50

Prior 146.83

SO2(Ktn) Percentage of reduction

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

0.00

36.71

73.41

110.12

100.00%

75.00%

50.00%

25.00%

Figure 4.21 : SO2 emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75%

SO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 550 500 450 400 350 (Ktn)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

SO2(Ktn) Percentage of reduction

Prior 513.50

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

47.16

94.32

141.48

36.74%

27.55%

18.37%

9.18%

Figure 4.22 : SO2 emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with SO2 reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-5075%.

NOx emissions of Greek tertiary sector before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions in tertiary sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 4

(Ktn)

0 NOx(Ktn)

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

3.78

0.97

1.67

2.38

3.08

74.34%

55.75%

37.17%

18.58%

Percentage of reduction

After25%

NOx emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 40 35 30 25 (Ktn)

20 15 10 5 0

NOx(Ktn) Percentage of reduction

Prior

After-100%

After-75%

After-50%

39.00

8.89

16.55

24.20

After25% 31.86

78.54%

58.90%

39.27%

19.64%

Figure 4.24 : NOx emissions of Greek industrial sector before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions in industrial sector when CHP installation in the same sector varies between 100-25-50-75% .

NOx emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-50-75% 350 300 250 200

(Ktn)

150 100 50 0 NOx(Ktn)

Prior

After-100%

346.97

Percentage of reduction

After-75%

After-50%

After25%

9.86

18.22

26.58

34.94

9.64%

7.23%

4.82%

2.41%

Figure 4.25 : NOx emissions of Greece before CHP plant installation compared with NOx reduced emissions when CHP installation in both tertiary and industrial sector varies between 100-25-5075%

4.4 Reasons that have prevented further CHP implementation in Greece

Even if many new plants have been constructed, taking into account the subsidy from existing funding programmes, lately many of the CHP plants have been out of use. The main reason is due to the relative high purchase price of natural gas and the low selling price, which are both key factors for the sustainability of CHP units. The Ministry of development in 2008 outlined that “…the field of cogeneration in Greece until

now, notwithstanding the steps made (eg. L 2773/99, L 3346806, subsidies in CHP plants via Second Support Community Framework (II SCF) and Operational Programme Competitiveness of III SCF) remains unpredictable and faces a long development process due to a number of obstacles: •

rise in the price of oil and consequently the rise of the price of natural gas is the major obstacle in the way of CHP technology 57

•

difficulties in defining the principal “dimensions” for economical and technical analysis in the energy field

•

lack of competitive pricing policy for CHP in the tertiary sector

•

lack of competitive pricing policy for CHP in the industrial sector. The current prices of natural gas for CHP and the way of estimating it was announced by Public Gas Corporation SA in October 1999, but due to uncertainty and delays, the major CHP plants that were to be subsidized were left without funding from II SCF.

•

Difficulties in further development of the natural gas network.

•

Weakness from PGC’s in following the time schedule for the gas connection of bulk industries

•

Lack of experience in energy management and assessment of alternative solutions.

As a consequence of the aforementioned, the contribution of cogeneration to the production of electricity in Greece is at a rate of 2% whilst the installed capacity is also at a rate of 2%. This is in contradiction to the rest of the European Countries; 11 countries produce more than 20% of their electricity from CHP plants, 4 countries produce more than 50% while the European average is 10%..”

4.5 SUMMARY The fourth chapter begins with the development of a database by using all of the collected data. Firstly the GHG emission problem is addressed by presenting real data for CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions for the years 1990 to 2000. Using the forecast method, estimates are presented for the specific emissions for the years 2000 to 2010. Current plants operating in Greece are presented and categorised according to either industrial or tertiary type. The amount of fuel required to cover the energy needs and the GHG emissions derived from those fuels in the industrial sector is presented using typical fuel consumption for the industries. For the tertiary sector ,the available data on the number of the hotels and hospitals and their typical consumption is the input used to estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions. GHG emissions are estimated prior to and after the installation of a CHP plant so as to estimate the GHG ‘profit’. Scenarios are developed to illustrate the wideness of the potential environmental advantages that can be achieved in both the tertiary-non residential and the industrial sectors in comparison to national GHG levels.

CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION

5.1 INTRODUCTION The fifth chapter deals with the discussion of the findings of the fourth chapter. The discussion contains an evaluation of the reliability of the data, which were used in the analysis concerning the environmental gain of using CHP plants in the industrial and tertiary sectors, how accurate is the analysis and how valid are the findings and presents a comparison between the findings of previous similar reports and this investigation. Finally, the benefits of this research are discussed.

5.2 INTERNAL DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

The calculation algorithm that was developed in this paper was used in order to relate current Greek GHG emissions and the industrial and tertiary activity. The comparison was performed in the axis of CHP plants and their characteristics and the performance that an industry, a hotel or a hospital had had prior to the CHP plant installation. In the industrial sector I used as input the amount and type of fuel used to fire the Greek industrial production and all of the necessary calculations were made in order to come to the conclusion of how those fuels are transformed into GHG emissions. The source that provides the data of the amount and type of fuel consumed in the industrial sector was Eurostat and the program New Cronos Database-Theme 8:Energy. On the other hand the data which was used as input to estimate the GHG emissions in the tertiary sector came from the paper “Empirical Assessment of the Hellenic Non-residential Building Stock,

Energy Consumption, Emissions and Potential Energy Savings’’ that contains the number of hotels and hospitals, the year they were constructed and their thermal and electrical energy consumption. In order to estimate the GHG emissions, due to the fact that the type and amount of fuel were not available as they were for the industrial sector, assumptions were made. It was assumed for example that to cover the thermal needs of hospitals and hotels , 60 % is covered by diesel oil and 40% is covered by natural gas. Therefore in the case of an industrial unit and a tertiary unit , the same calculation method is not used.

Table 5.1: Industrial GHG Emissions (source: NOA, 2002) tn 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CO2 7,685,710.00 7,589,870.00 7,510,960.00 7,481,600.00 7,259,730.00 7,709,060.00 7,946,970.00 7,991,290.00 7,973,330.00 7,866,560.00 7,876,980.00 7,998,742.18 8,093,522.07 8,183,039.79 8,258,986.03 8,318,950.54 8,305,875.46 8,336,475.42 8,401,882.33 8,480,303.46 8,560,600.33

NOx 1,680.00 1,570.00 1,500.00 1,410.00 1,360.00 1,360.00 1,500.00 1,360.00 1,390.00 1,420.00 1,430.00 1,336.00 1,347.27 1,355.41 1,362.11 1,357.85 1,342.85 1,322.50 1,328.78 1,313.94 1,302.50

SO2 10,170.00 11,580.00 8,880.00 8,540.00 8,560.00 9,240.00 9,390.00 9,590.00 9,760.00 10,340.00 10,590.00 9,842.36 10,008.50 10,586.18 10,821.48 10,968.90 11,050.22 11,190.44 11,318.36 11,441.87 11,556.21

Table 5.2: Residential-Commercial-Institutional sector GHG Emissions (source: NOA, 2002) Ktn 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CO2 5,206.58 5,376.36 5,246.10 5,196.51 5,236.84 5,510.67 7,360.69 7,612.90 7,968.71 7,755.17 8,367.64 8,645.92 9,156.64 9,705.61 10,217.21 10,659.88 10,999.20 11,230.82 11,684.58 12,151.86 12,651.06

NOx 6.47 6.64 6.56 5.84 6.05 6.16 8.62 8.78 8.99 8.84 9.23 9.72 10.26 10.86 11.47 11.94 12.31 12.50 13.01 13.54 14.08

SO2 18.69 19.65 19.27 18.23 11.01 10.96 14.64 15.11 15.69 15.00 16.24 15.54 15.60 15.87 16.47 17.81 18.01 17.69 18.01 18.37 18.80

In order to compare if the GHG emission performance of the industrial and of the tertiary sector has been calculated properly and if it is in accordance with the national levels, Table 5.1 and Table 5.2 were created. Both tables contain data estimated by NOA and the Ministry for Environment. Tables 5.1 and 5.2 were compared with Table 5.3 which presents the emissions estimated in this paper of CO2, SO2 and NOx from the industry and tertiary sectors. Tables 5.1 and 5.2 present the emissions of industry and tertiary but only include the pollution caused when covering the thermal needs and not the electrical needs of these sectors. Additionally, Table 5.2 includes not only the tertiary sector GHG emissions but includes residential, commercial and institutional. Therefore when comparing the emissions of direct industrial activity with the emissions shown in Table 5.1, we see that, for instance, NOA estimates the values for CO2 as 8,318,950.54 tn, whilst this current study estimates the value to be 8,795,360.96 tn.

Table 5.3: Tertiary and GHG Emissions (source: NOA, 2002)

CO2

2005

ELECTRICAL 7,783,121.64

DIRECT 8,795,360.96

2005

ELECTRICAL 3,064,687.52

DIRECT 939,250.00

SO2 INDUSTRY ELECTRICAL DIRECT 136,499.54 10,325.70 TERTIARY ELECTRICAL DIRECT 55,885.48 139.97

NOx

ELECTRICAL 31,518.37

DIRECT 8,000.00

ELECTRICAL 4,326.62

DIRECT 720.00

5.3 EXTERNAL DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

In 2001, COGEN Europe under the funded SAVE Programme published the Educogen as the European guide for cogeneration. According to this report, in the chapter regarding CO2 savings , it is stated that “…savings in carbon dioxide can vary from 100 kg per MWh to more than 1,000 kg/ MWh…”. In the current paper, as shown in Table 5.4 the overall energy of industry is estimated as 33,026,367 GWh and the overall saved amount of CO2 as 5,361,354.75 tn, from which we can extract an amount of 162 kg/MWh. In the case of the tertiary sector this amount reaches 498 kg/MWh due to overall energy of 6,818.02 GWh and 3,396,145 tn of emitted CO2.

Table 5.4: Estimated energy needed to cover Greek industry’s needs and saved CO2 emissions.

CO2 saved

overall energy industry

33,026,367.00

GWh

5,361,354.75

tertiary

6,818.02

GWh

3,760.00

Both 162 kg/MWh and 498 kg/MWh are within the range of the 100-1000kg/MWh as given by the Educogen while, and are also in agreement with the further point made in the guide; “if it is

assumed that cogeneration displaces electricity from a mix of fuels and heat from a boiler with a mixed type of fuels, the savings per kWh will be 615g”. By looking at section 4.3 of this paper, reagrding CHP penetration scenarios in the industrial and tertiary sectors, and in particular in Figure 4.22 that presents CO2 emissions and CHP penetration scenarios in the Greek industrial sector vs. overall Greek CO2 emissions for various penetration scenarios, we can remark that the percentage of reduction is shown to vary from 6.14 % to 1.54 % for the optimistic to the pessimistic scenario respectively. Moreover, Mr. K. Theofylaktos, in a conference of the Technical Chamber of Greece in 2005 on the subject of lignite, natural gas and its role in the electricity generation sector, referred to the CHP capacity and identified potentials, perspectives and made a comparison between CO2 emissions per kg CO2 of MWth generated through a coal-fired steam turbine and coal, gas and biofuel CHP plants. According to the presentation of Theofilaktos K. (2005). Combined Heat and Power in the

New Energy Scene-Lignite, Natural Gas and Greek Electricity Generation, steam turbines emit 1000 kg CO2/MWh, coal CHP 500 kg CO2/MWh and gas CHP 250 kg CO2/MWh. The above percentages were anticipated to be due to paper of SNOEK C. and SPURR M. that suggests that “…avoided carbon dioxide emissions from the use of district heating (DH)1 and CHP

is significant and amounts to about one-half of the magnitude of carbon dioxide reduction presumed in the Kyoto protocol. Globally, DH and CHP (including industrial CHP) reduce the total existing carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion by 3-4%. This corresponds to an annual (1998) reduction of 670-890 Mton compared to global emissions of 22700 Mton. The highest carbon dioxide reductions from DH/CHP occur in Russia (15%), in the former USSR outside Russia (8%) and in the EU (5%)’’.

As estimated in the current paper , there is reduction of up to 146,825,24 tn SO2 in the industrial sector and of 41.82 Ktn SO2 in the tertiary sector while the level of NOx reaches up to 30.63 Ktn in the industrial sector and 2.81 Ktn in the tertiary sector. Considering energy of 33,026,367 GWh and 6,818,020 MWh for the industrial and tertiary sectors respectively, we can estimate the saved GHG per MWh and compare it with relevant data from literature and in particular from Educogen. This comparison is summarised in Table 5.5.

Table 5.5: Comparison between literature and estimated SO2 and NOx savings in gr/KWh. Estimations industry tertiary

overall energy 33,026,367.00 GWh 6,818.02 GWh

SO2 saved 146,825.24 tn 41,820.00 tn 23.2

industry tertiary

6.13 4.5

NOx saved 30,627.48 tn 28,100.00 tn Literature gr/KWh 2.9 gr/KWh Estimations gr/KWh 0.41 gr/KWh gr/KWh 1 gr/KWh

The Educogen explains that “… the current share of electricity produced from cogeneration in the

EU is about 10%. The EU target is to reach 18% by 2010. The following table illustrates what this target could achieve in terms of CO2 emissions reduction. The results are different depending on the fuel being displaced…”. The optimistic scenario within Greece as presented in this paper estimates gaining 8.757, 499.75 tn of CO2. Table 5.6: Fuel displaced and CO2 savings (COGEN, 2001)

Fuel displaced

CO2 savings

Coal electricity and coal boilers

342 Million Tonnes

Gas electricity and gas boilers

50 Million Tonnes

Fossil mix electricity and boilers

188 Million Tonnes

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS

6.1 INTRODUCTION The sixth chapter presents the conclusions, which derived from the extensive analysis of the data presented in chapter four and the discussion in chapter five. Considering the findings obtained, the conclusions provide answers to the research problem and the research questions.

6.2 CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE RESEARCH PROBLEM By studying GHG at a national level from 1990 until 2000 it is observed that the amount of carbon dioxide emitted steadily increased, with an average increase rate of 3% except for the years 1995 and 1999. Moreover, using the extrapolation technique it is foreseen that the amount of emissions is expected to reach almost 130,000 Kt in 2010. Due to heavy industrial production e.g. aluminium and cement, industry contributes at a rate of 9% to the total CO2 emissions, 3% of total SO2 emissions. In 1999, total SO2 emissions were approximately 11% higher than 1990 levels. The decrease of emissions in 1994 was mainly due to decrease of sulphur content in heavy fuel oil used in industry and in 2002, total SO2 emissions were lower by 2.1 % compared to 1990 levels. On the other hand, oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2 are created by fossil fuel combustion lighting, biomass fires and, in the stratosphere, from nitrous oxide. NOx emissions appear to be steadily increasing with an average increase rate of approximately 0.8 %. The national GHG emissions are shown in Figures 6.1 and 6.2 and include the data from NOA and the emissions extrapolated within this paper until the year 2010. Fifty three CHP plants are currently operating in Greece with overall estimated thermal energy of 4,234,260 MWh and electrical energy of 2,736,428 MWh annually. The GHG calculations are estimated based on the amount and type of fuel used in industrial sector and of thermal and electrical energy needed to cover the needs of hospitals, heath care buildings and hotels.

Estimations on GHG savings from the so far operating CHP units are reduced per 754,326.51 tn of CO2 , 2,127.81tn NOx and 42, 545.14 SO2per annum. This corresponds to a percentage of 0.65% reduction compared to the national CO2 level, 0.61% reduction compared to the national NOx level and 8.29% compared to the national SO2 level. However, the main aspect of this paper was to investigate to what percentage the industrial and tertiary sectors can, individually but also combined, .contribute to national GHG reduction if CHP technology is applied on a greater scale. Thus, in the industrial sector, if CHP technology contributes at a percentage of 25%, the reduction that can be achieved in CO2 emissions is of 8.86 % or 1,340.34 Ktn per annum while for 50% the reduction that can be achieved is of 16.17 % or 2,680.68 Ktn per annum. For 75 % the reduction that can be achieved is of 24.25 % or 4,021.02 Ktn per annum while in the more optimistic scenario, those of 100% penetration of CHP technology, CO2 emissions reduction of 32.34 % or 5,361.35Ktn per annum can be achieved. NOx emissions are reduced by 19.64% for the 25% penetration CHP scenario up to 78.54 % for the 100% scenario and the emissions vary from 7.66 Ktn NOx to 30.63 Ktn NOx. SO2 emissions vary from 110.12 Ktn SO2 to 0 Ktn SO2. In the tertiary sector, if CHP technology contributes at a percentage of 25% the reduction that can be achieved in CO2 emissions is of 14.61 % or 440.32 Ktn per annum while for 50% the reduction that can be achieved is of 39.61% or 1,193.86 Ktn per annum. For 75 % the reduction that can be achieved is of 43.82 % or 1,320.95 Ktn per annum while in the more optimistic scenario, those of 100% penetration CO2 emissions reduction of 58.43 % or 1,761.26 Ktn per annum can be achieved. NOx emissions are reduced by 18.58 % for the 25% penetration CHP scenario up to 74.34 % for the 100% scenario and the emissions vary from 0.70 Ktn NOx to 2.81 Ktn NOx. SO2 emissions vary from 31.37 Ktn SO2 to 0 Ktn SO2. Cumulatively in the industrial and tertiary sectors, depending on the penetration scenario, the reduction that can be achieved in CO2 emissions is 1.54% per annum while for 50% the reduction that can be achieved is of 3.34% per annum. For 75% the reduction that can be achieved is of 4.61% while in the more optimistic scenario, that of 100% penetration, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 6.14% annually. NOx emissions can be reduced by 2.41% for the 25% penetration CHP scenario and by up to 9.64% for the 100% scenario. On the other hand, SO2 emissions can be reduced at an amount of 9.18% for the 25% penetration CHP scenario and up to an amount of 36.74 % for the 100% scenario.

Industry, hotels and hospitals due to the large thermal energy needs are suitable for implementing CHP technology. CHP technology has the potential to contribute to the reduction of the national GHG emissions but various factors prevent further penetration, e.g. the fact that natural gas follows the price of oil makes such an investment rather expensive given that the energy produced by CHP plants has a relatively low selling point. This study does however support the idea that CHP is a viable solution towards the decentralization production of energy, especially due to the use of natural gas, since decentralized energy production is cheaper, more reliable and more environmentally friendly.

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APPENDIX This appendix includes all the estimations and calculations that have been used in this paper. § 4.6.1 Table 4.4: Distribution of Greek health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods (source: Gaglia A., Balaras C., et.al.,2006). Distribution of the Hellenic health care (HC) buildings for different construction periods and climatic zones year of construction Pre-1980 (1981–2001) (2002–2010) Average Total

Average annual electrical and thermal energy consumption (kWh/m2)in Hellenic Health Care buildings for the different climatic zones at different construction periods

Number of buildings

Floor area (m2)

Electrical energy consumption (kWh/m2)

Thermal energy consumption (kWh/m2)

Electrical energy consumption (MWh)

Thermal energy consumption (MWh)

1,566 117 59 1,742

3,394,400 1,004,400 580,041 4,978,841

90 99 107 99 -

145 134 129 136 -

305,496 99,436 62,064 155,665 467.00

492,188 134,590 74,825 233,868 701.60

By multyplying the average annual electrical and thermal energy consumption (kWh/m2) in Greek Health Care buildings, we take the total annual electrical and thermal energy consumption of Greek health care buildings.

§ 4.6.2 Table 4.5: Distribution of Greek hotels for different construction periods and different seasonal use (source: Gaglia A., Balaras C., et.al.,2006)

In Table 4.5 the distribution of Greek hotels for different construction periods is presented. Due to seasonal use of summer hotels a factor equal to 7/12 or 0.583 is multiplied with cells 1A, 2A, 3A, 4A and cells 6A, 7A, 8A and 9A is produced. Then the extracted overall total is used and been multiplied by collumns G and H to give collumns I and J that the total annual electrical and thermal energy consumption of Greek hotels. The average electrical and thermal energy of one hotel to meet its annual energy needs is 0.741GWh and 0.594 GWh respectively Distribution of the Hellenic hotels for different construction periods

A B Summer Hotels (AprilOctober)

Pre-1980 (1981–2001) (2002–2010) sub-total Factor due to AprilOctober use Pre-1980-usage factor (1981–2001)-usage factor (2002–2010)-usage factor Total 1 Total 2 Overall total Average

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

E F Overall Total (total 1*factor+ total 2)

Thermal energy consumpti on (kWh/m2) 90 80 75 -

Electrical energy consumption (MWh) 486,306 1,037,777 700,065 -

Thermal energy consumption (MWh) 625,250 754,747 403,884 -

3,015 2,580 1,214 6,809

6,524,219 9,380,098 5,430,632 -

1,543 1,171 539 -

3,141,430 3,962,617 2,217,250 -

3,302 2,676 1,247 -

6,947,224 9,434,341 5,385,119 -

Electrical energy consumpti on (kWh/m2) 70 110 130 -

0.583 1,759

3,805,794.417

1,505

5,471,723.833

708 3,972 -

3,167,868.667 12,445,387 -

3,253 -

9,321,297 -

7,225 -

21,766,684 -

2,224.15 741.38

1,783.88 594.63

Numbe r of building s 1 2 3 4 5

C D Annual Hotels (throughout the year)

Floor area (m2)

Number of buildings

Floor area (m2)

Number of buildings

Floor area (m2)

103

§ 4.2.7.1.2 CO2 emission estimations before and after CHP installation

To estimate the air pollution due to direct fuel consumption and due to electricity consumption we use the following equation: Mi= d M i + eM i

equ.1

where d M i = d M isolid + d M iliquid + d M igas

equ.2

thus to estimate the CO2 emissions the equation equ. 1 gives us equ.3 MCO2= d M CO 2 + eM CO 2

equ.3

where the mass of CO2 produced due to electricity production is e

M CO 2 =[ coal ε co 2 X coal + n. g .ε co 2 X n. g . + oil ε co 2 X oil + res ε co 2 X res ]E

equ.4

where the ε co 2 is CO2 emission factor and X the share of each fuel in the Greek electricity production (source:IEA Report Greece 2008) is

tn CO2 and X coal = 51.4% GWh tn CO2 oil ε co 2 = 800 and X oil = 15% GWh tn CO2 n. g . ε co 2 = 450 and X n. g . = 24.1% GWh tn CO2 res ε co 2 = 10 and X res = 9.3% GWh therefore replacing all the above amounts in equ.4 we have coal

ε co 2 = 1,050

M c =[ coal ε co 2 X coal + n. g .ε co 2 X n. g . + oil ε co 2 X oil + res ε co 2 X res ]E =

tn tn tn tn * 0.514 + 800 * 0.15 + 450 * 0.241 + 10 * 0.093] *14,421.20GWh = GWh GWh GWh GWh = [539.7 + 120 + 108.45 + 0.93] *14,421.20 tn = 7,783,121.64 tn CO2 = [1,050

M CO 2 = 7,783,121.64 tn CO2

equ.4

where the direct mass of CO2 produced due combustion is given by d

solid d liquid d gas M CO 2 = d M CO 2 + M CO 2 + M CO 2

equ.5

where for solids that consist of coal products we have the theoretical maximum 74

44 [γ h -cη h -c d M h −c + γ lη l d M l + γ ckη ck d M ck + γ bcbη bcb d M bcb ] 12 h-c: hard coal and derivatives d

solid M CO 2 =

equ.6

l: lignite and derivatives ck: coke bcb: brown coal briquettes where for liquids that consist of oil products we have 44 d liquid M CO [γ gd -oη gd -o d M gd −o + γ rf -oη rf -o d M rf -o + γ o-pη o − p d M o − p + γ kjf η kjf d M kjf ] 2 = 12 equ.7

gd-o: gas/diesel oil rf-o: residual fuel oil o-p: other petroleum products kjf: kerosenes-jet fuels

where for gaseous fuels we have d

gas M CO 2 =

44 [γ rgη rg d M rg + γ lpgη lpg d M lpg + γ n.g.η n.g d M n.g. ] 12

equ.8

rg: refinery gases lpg: liquefied petroleum gas n.g.: natural gas The values for Fraction of Carbon Oxidised(η) are grouped for coal products, oil products and gaseous products and equal to :

η coal = η h -c = η l = η ck = η bcb = 98% (solid) η oil = η gd-o = η rf -o = η o-p = η kjf = 99% (liquid) η gas = η rg = η lpg = η n.g. = 99.5% (gas) Therefore equations equ.6, equ.7 and equ.8 are transformed to 44 η coal [γ h -c d M h −c + γ l d M l + γ ck d M ck + γ bcb d M bcb ] = 12

solid M CO 2 =

44 0.98 [γ h -c d M h −c + γ l d M l + γ ck d M ck + γ bcb d M bcb ] 12

liquid M CO 2 =

equ.9

44 η oil [γ gd-o d M gd −o + γ rf -o d M rf -o + γ o-p d M o − p + γ kjf d M kjf ] = 12 75

44 0.99[γ gd -o d M gd −o + γ rf -o d M rf -o + γ o-p d M o − p + γ kjf d M kjf ] 12

gas M CO 2 =

equ.10

44 44 η gas [γ rg d M rg + γ lpg d M lpg + γ n.g. d M n.g. ] = 0.995[γ rg d M rg + γ lpg d M lpg + γ n.g. d M n.g. ] 12 12 equ.11

To estimate the carbon content γ of each fuel we multiply the carbon emission factor of that fuel with its net calorific value. This estimation will be done for all aforementioned fuels.

Table 4.11: Carbon content γ of each fuel (tn C/k tn).

Fuel Hard Coal & Derivatives Lignite & Derivatives Coke Brown Coal Briquettes Refinery Gas LPG Gas / Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil Other Petroleum Products Kerosenes - Jet Fuels Natural Gas

Carbon Emission Factor (tn C/TJ)

Net Calorific Value

(TJ/k tn)

(tn C/k tn)

26.80 27.60 28.90

23.90 5.28 29.57

640.52 145.73 854.57

25.80 18.20 17.20 20.20 21.10

13.23 47.60 47.31 43.38 40.68

341.28 866.32 813.73 876.28 858.35

20.00

40.19

803.80

19.50 15.30

44.59 47.51

869.51 726.90

when replacing the γ from table 4.11 and M from table 4.1 in equ.9 we have 44 0.98 [γ h -c d M h − c + γ l d M l + γ ck d M ck + γ bcb d M bcb ] = 12 = 3.59[(640.52 tn C/ktn * 564.00ktn) + (145.73tn C/ktn * 337.00ktn) + + (854.57tn C/ktn * 4.00ktn) + (341.28tn C/ktn * 113.00ktn)] = d

solid M CO 2 =

= 3.59[(361,253.28 + 49,110.34 + 3,418.29 + 38,564.91)tn C] = = 3.59 * 452,346.82 tn C = 1,625,432.90 tn CO 2 d

solid M CO 2 = 1,625,432.90 tn CO 2

equ.12

when replacing the γ and M in equ.10 we have 44 d liquid 0.99[γ gd -o d M gd −o + γ rf -o d M rf -o + γ o-p d M o − p + γ kjf d M kjf ] = M CO 2 = 12 = 3.630[(876.28 tn C/ktn * 439.00 ktn) + (858.35 tn C/ktn * 667.00 ktn) + + (803.80 tn C/ktn * 564.00 ktn) + (869.51tn C/ktn * 4.00 ktn) = = 3.630[(384,685.16 + 572,518.12 + 484,108.27 + 3,478.02) tn C] = = 3.630 * 1,444,789.57 tn C = 5,244,586.15 tn CO 2 d

liquid M CO 2 = 5,244,586.15 tn CO 2

equ.13

due to the fact the amount of natural gas used in industry is given in toe we consider net Hun.g.=47.51MJ/kg and an efficiency ηn.g.=0.85 and thus the 426 Ktoe of natural gas used in industry are transformed to mass of natural gas as follows : 426*11.63GWh=

426 *11.63 * 3600 GJ =441.66 103 tn= d M n.g. 47.51 GJ/tn * 0.85

when replacing the γ and M in equ.11 we have 44 0.995[γ rg d M rg + γ lpg d M lpg + γ n.g. d M n.g. ] = 12 = 3.648[(866.32 tn C/ktn * 0.00ktn) + (813.73 tn C/ktn * 254.00ktn) + (726.90 tn C/ktn * 441.66ktn)] = d

gas M CO 2 =

= 3.648[(0 + 206,687.93 + 321,043.98) tn C] = = 3.648 * 527,731.91tn C = = 1,925,341.91 tn CO 2 d

gas M CO 2 = 1,925,341.91 tn CO 2

equ.14

and equ.5 give as the total mass of CO2 by replacing the equ.12, equ.13 and equ.14 to equ.5 we have that d

solid d liquid d gas M CO 2 = d M CO 2 + M CO 2 + M CO 2 = 1,625,432.90 tn CO 2 + 5,244,586.15 tn CO 2 + 1,925,341.91tn CO 2

M CO 2 = 8,795,360.96 tn CO 2

equ.15

Replacing equ.15 and equ.4 to equ.3 we estimate on the total CO2 produced due to industrial activity in Greece without using a CHP plant.

M CO2 = d M CO 2 + e M CO 2 = 8,795,360.96 tn CO2 + 7,783,121.64 tn CO2 M CO2 = 16,578,482.60 tn CO2

equ.3

After the installation of CHP unit we have that the new mass of natural gas required to cover electrical and thermal needs is given by equation equ.16 l Qbefore = d M solid Hu solid + d M liquid Hu liquid + d M gas Hu gas + ΔΕ el = d M h −c Hu h −c + d M l Hu l +

Where + d M ck Hu ck + d M bcb Hu bcb + d M gd −o Hu gd −o + d M rf −o Hu rf −o + d M o − p Hu o − p + + d M kjf Hu kjf + d M rg Hu rg + d M lpg Hu lpg + d M n. g . Hu n. g . + 0

equ.16

All calculations of equ.16 are analytically presented in the following table : Table 4.12: Estimated thermal energy (GWh).

Fuel

Amount of fuel (103 tonnes)

Net Calorific Value(TJ/103 tonnes)

Qbefore(TJ)

Qbefore (GWh)

Hard Coal & Derivatives

564

23.90

13,479.600

3,744.334

Lignite & Derivatives

337

5.28

1,779.360

494.267

Coke

29.57

118.280

32.856

Brown Coal Briquettes

113

13.23

1,494.764

415.212

Gas / Diesel Oil

439

43.38

19,043.820

5,289.950

Residual Fuel Oil

667

40.68

27,133.560

7,537.101

Other Petroleum Products

564

40.19

22,667.160

6,296.434

Kerosenes - Jet Fuels

44.59

178.360

49.544

47.60

0.000

254

47.31

12,016.740

3,337.984

441.66

47.51

20,983.267

5,828.686

118,894.911

33,026.367

Refinery Gas LPG Natural Gas

total

by replacing all the Qbefore = 33,026.367 GWh

equ.16

Electrical energy used in industry is given in toe from the source thus E before = 1.24Mtoe = 1.24 *11,630 GWh = 14,421.20GWh

equ.17

Replacing in equation18 the estimated equ.16 and equ.17 as well as the known price for Hu n. g . = 47.51 GJ/tn and estimation for efficiency η CHP = 85% we have that M n' . g . =

E before + Q before (33,026.367 GWh + 14,421.20GWh) * 3600 170,811,240.112 = = tn Hu n.g. * η CHP 47.51GJ/tn * 0.85 40.384 equ.18

M n' . g . = 4,229,728.481 tn = 4,229.73 k tn

equ.19

Then we can use the equation 20 to calculate the extracted emissions from this amount of natural gas : gas M CO 2 '=

44 ' [γ n.g.η n.g M n.g. ] 12

equ.20

replacing γnatural gas=726.90 tn C/Ktn and ηn.g.=99.5% in equ.20 we have 44 [726.90tn C / k tn * 0.995 * 4,229.73 k tn] 12 = 11,217,127.844 tn CO 2

n. g . M ' CO2 = M CO 2 =

M ' CO2

The gain in CO2 is the difference between the prior CHP emissions M CO2 and the M ' CO2 emissions after. M gained CO2 = M CO2 − M ' CO2 = 16,578,482.60 tn CO 2 − 11,217,127.844 tn CO 2 M gained CO2 = 5,361,354.75 tn CO 2

§ 4.2.7.1.2 SO2 emission estimations before and after CHP installation

To estimate the SO2 emissions the equation equ. 1 gives us equ.22

MSO2= d M SO 2 + e M SO 2

equ.22

where the mass of SO2 produced due to electricity production is e

M SO 2 =[ coal ε SO 2 X coal + n. g .ε SO 2 X n. g . + oil ε SO 2 X oil + res ε SO 2 X res ]E

equ.23

where the ε SO 2 is SO2 emission factor (source: Kaldellis J., et. al., 2004) , and X the share of each fuel in the Greek electricity production (source:IEA Report Greece 2008) is tn SO2 and X coal = 51.4% GWh tn SO2 oil ε SO 2 = 14.1 and X oil = 15% GWh tn SO2 n. g . ε SO 2 = 0 and X n. g . = 24.1% GWh tn SO2 res ε SO 2 = 0 and X res = 9.3% GWh therefore replacing all the above amounts in equ.22 we have coal

ε SO 2 = 14.3

M S =[ coal ε SO 2 X coal + n. g .ε SO 2 X n. g . + oil ε SO 2 X oil + res ε SO 2 X res ]E =

tn tn * 0.514 + 14.1 * 0.15] *14,421.20GWh = GWh GWh = [7.350 + 2.115] *14,421.20 tn = 136,499.54 tn SO2 = [14.3

M SO 2 = 136,499.54 tn SO2

equ.23

where the direct mass of SO2 produced due combustion is given by d

solid d liquid d gas M SO 2 = d M SO 2 + M SO 2 + M SO 2

equ.24

where for solids that consist of coal products we have 64 d solid M SO [γ ' h -c η ' h -c d M h −c + γ ' l η ' l d M l + γ ' ck η ' ck d M ck + γ ' bcb η ' bcb d M bcb ] 2 = 32 equ.25

h-c: hard coal and derivatives l: lignite and derivatives ck: coke bcb: brown coal briquettes where for liquids that consist of oil products we have 64 d liquid M SO [γ ' gd -o η ' gd -o d M gd −o + γ ' rf -o η ' rf -o d M rf -o + γ ' o-p η ' o − p d M o − p + γ ' kjf η ' kjf d M kjf ] 2 = 32 equ.26 gd-o: gas/diesel oil 80

rf-o: residual fuel oil o-p: other petroleum products kjf: kerosenes-jet fuels 0 where for gaseous fuels we have 64 d gas M SO [γ ' rg η ' rg d M rg + γ ' lpg η ' lpg d M lpg + γ ' n.g. η ' n.g d M n.g. ] 2 = 32

equ.27

rg: refinery gases lpg: liquefied petroleum gas n.g.: natural gas (natural gas does not contain sulfur) The values for Fraction of Sulfur Oxidized (η) is assumed 99% for all types of fuel.

η ' coal = η ' h -c = η ' l = η ' ck = η ' bcb = 99% η ' oil = η ' gd -o = η ' rf -o = η ' o-p = η ' kjf = 99% η ' gas = η ' rg = η ' lpg = η ' n.g. = 99% Therefore equations equ.25, equ.26 and equ.27 are transformed to 64 η ' coal [γ ' h -c d M h −c + γ ' l d M l + γ ' ck d M ck + γ ' bcb d M bcb ] = 32

solid M SO 2 =

64 0.99 [γ ' h -c d M h −c + γ ' l d M l + γ ' ck d M ck + γ ' bcb d M bcb ] 32 equ.28

liquid M SO 2 =

64 η ' oil [γ ' gd -o d M gd −o + γ ' rf -o d M rf -o + γ ' o-p d M o − p + γ ' kjf d M kjf ] = 32

64 0.99[γ ' gd -o d M gd −o + γ ' rf -o d M rf -o + γ ' o-p d M o − p + γ ' kjf d M kjf ] 32 equ.29

gas M SO 2 =

64 64 η ' gas [γ ' rg d M rg + γ ' lpg d M lpg + γ ' n.g. d M n.g. ] = 0.99[γ ' rg d M rg + γ ' lpg d M lpg + γ ' n.g. d M n.g. ] 32 32 equ.30

The emissions of sulphur oxides (SOx) are directly related to the sulphur content of the fuel, which for coal normally varies between 0.3 and 1.2 wt.-% (maf) (up to an extreme value of 4.5 wt.-%) and for fuel oil (including heavy fuel oil) from 0.3 up to 3.0 wt.-%. (CORINAIR, 2006).

Table 4.13: Sulfur Content % of fuel consumed in Greek industry(source:CORINAIR, 2006).

Fuel

Sulfur Content %

Hard Coal & Derivatives Lignite & Derivatives Coke Brown Coal Briquettes Refinery Gas LPG Gas / Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil Other Petroleum Products Kerosenes - Jet Fuels Natural Gas

1 2 2 1 1 0.2 2 2 2 2 -

64 0.99 [γ ' h -c d M h −c + γ ' b d M b + γ ' l d M l + γ ' ck d M ck + γ ' bcb d M bcb ] = 32 = 1.98[(1 tn S/ktn * 564.00ktn) + (2tn S/ktn * 337.00ktn) + + (2tn S/ktn * 4.00ktn) + (1tn S/ktn *113.00ktn)] = = 1.98[564.00 + 674.00 + 8.00 + 113.00tn S] = = 1.98 *1,359.00 tn S = 2,690.82 tn SO 2 d

solid M SO 2 =

solid M SO 2 = 2,690.82 tn SO 2

equ.31

replacing M in equ.10 we have 64 d liquid M SO 0.99[γ ' c-o d M c-o + γ ' gd -o d M gd −o + γ ' rf -o d M rf -o + γ ' o-p d M o − p + γ ' kjf d M kjf ] = 2 = 32 = 1.98[(2 tn S/ktn * 439.00 ktn) + (2 tn S/ktn * 667.00 ktn) + + (2 tn S/ktn * 564.00 ktn) + (2 tn S/ktn * 4.00 ktn) = = 1.98[(878.99 + 1,334.00 + 1,128.00 + 8.00) tn S] = = 1.98 * 3,348.00 tn S = 6,629.04 tn SO 2

liquid M SO 2 = 6,629.04 tn SO 2

equ.32

when replacing M in equ.11 we have d

gas M SO 2 = 1,005.84 tn SO 2

equ.33

64 0.99[γ ' lpg d M lpg ] = 32 = 1.98[(0.2 tn S/ktn * 254.00ktn)] = d

gas M SO 2 =

= 1.98[(508.00) tn S] = = 1,005.84 tn SO 2

equ.24 give as the total direct mass of SO2 by replacing the equ.31, equ.32 and equ.33 to equ.24 we have that d

solid d liquid d gas M SO 2 = d M SO 2 + M SO 2 + M SO 2 = 2,690.82 tn SO 2 + 6,629.04 tn SO 2 + 1,005.84 tn SO 2

M SO 2 = 10,325.700 tn SO 2

equ.34

Replacing equ.34 and equ.23 to equ.22 we estimate on the total SO2 produced due to industrial activity in Greece without using a CHP plant.

M SO2 = d M SO 2 + e M SO 2 = 10,325.700 tn SO2 + 136,499.54 tn SO2 M SO2 = 146,825.24224 tn SO2

equ.35

Since the CHP plant will be fired using natural gas that produces no sulfur emissions the amount of M SO2 = 146,825.24224 tn SO2 is considered as the saved amount of SO2 emissions.

§ 4.2.7.1.3 NOx emission estimations before and after CHP installation

To estimate the NOx emissions we use the equation MNOx= d M NOx + e M NOX

equ.36

where d M NOx is the mass of emission pollutant due to direct combustion of fuel and e

M NOX is the mass of emission pollutant due to electricity production

The the mass of emission pollutant due to electricity production is calculated using the following equation e

M NOx =[ coalε NOx X coal + n. g.ε NOx X n.g . + oil ε NOx X oil ]E =

tn tn tn * 0.514 + 0.36 * 0.15 + 0.202 * 0.241] *14,421.20GWh = GWh GWh GWh = [0.583+ 1.554 + 0.049] *14,421.20 tn = 31,518.369tn NOx = [1.134

equ.37

M NOx = 31,518.369 tn NOx

where the ε NOx is NOx emission factor(source: http://www.cfs.co.uk/sustainability2003/ecological/conversions.htm paragraph 1.3 Energy: nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions to air.) and X the share of each fuel in the Greek electricity production (source:IEA Report Greece 2002) is tn NOx and X coal = 51.4% GWh tn NOx oil ε NOx = 0.36 and X oil = 15% GWh tn NOx n. g . ε NOx = 0.202 and X n. g . = 24.1% GWh tn NOx res ε NOx = 0 and X res = 9.3% GWh coal

ε NOX = 1.134

According to Ministry of Development and the Operational Programme Competitiveness – Energy Investments Guide it had issued in 2002 we have the following table-1 to estimate NOx emissions per combusted fuel.

Table 4.14: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel). (source: Hellenic Ministry of Development,

2002) Ef NOx Pollutant emissions Fuel

(g/kg fuel) NOx

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) Low Sulphur

5.363

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) High Sulphur

5.251

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) Low Sulphur

5.363

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) High Sulphur

5.221

Diesel

2.384

LPG

2.102

Natural Gas

2.102

Table 4.15: Amount of fuel used to cover industry’s needs(extract from table 4.2) Mf (Ktn) Hard Coal & Derivatives

564.00

Lignite & Derivatives

337.00

Coke

4.00

Brown Coal Briquettes

113.00

LPG

254.00

Gas / Diesel Oil

439.00

Residual Fuel Oil

667.00

Other Petroleum Products

564.00

Kerosenes - Jet Fuels

4.00

Natural Gas

441.66

The direct amount of NOx is calculated by multiplying the emission factor as given by d M NOx = E fNOx * M f equ.38

Calculating for fuels LPG, diesel oil, other petroleum products(using the value of mazut taking as average of No1 –No3 and low-high sulfate the value 5.251 (g/kg fuel)) and natural gas the equ38 becomes d

M NOx = E fNOx * M f = ( E fNOx * M f ) LPG + ( E fNOx * M f ) diese l + ( E fNOx * M f ) mazut +

+ ( E fNOx * M f ) n. g = tn tn tn ) + (439 Ktn * 2.384 ) + (564 Ktn * 5.251 )+ Ktn Ktn Ktn tn + (441.66 Ktn * 2.102 )= Ktn = 533.91 + 1,046.58 + 2,989.20 + 928.37 = 5,498.05 tn NOx = (254 Ktn * 2.102

Due to the fact that we didn’t estimate NOx emissions due to combustion of hard coal, lignite, coke, briquettes, residual fuel oil and kerosenes and due to lack of data we make an assumption and make an accession of 5, 498 tn NOx to 8,000 tn NOx.

Thus d M NOx = 8,000 tn NOx is the mass of NOx from direct combustion of fuels M NOx = d M NOx + e M NOX = 8,000 tn NOx + 31,518.369 tn NOx

Thus the overall mass of NOx emission resulting from Greek industrial activity is M NOx = 39,518.37 tn NOx

After the installation of CHP unit we have that the new mass of natural gas required to cover electrical and thermal needs is given by equation equ.39 l Qbefore = d M solid Hu solid + d M liquid Hu liquid + d M gas Hu gas + ΔΕ el = d M h −c Hu h −c + d M l Hu l +

Where + d M ck Hu ck + d M bcb Hu bcb + d M gd −o Hu gd −o + d M rf −o Hu rf −o + d M o − p Hu o − p + + d M kjf Hu kjf + d M rg Hu rg + d M lpg Hu lpg + d M n. g . Hu n. g . + 0

equ.39

Therefore by replacing we have Qbefore = 33,026.367 GWh

equ.40

Electrical energy used in industry is given in toe from the source thus E before = 1.24Mtoe = 1.24 *11,630 GWh = 14,421.20GWh

equ.41

Replacing in equation 42 the estimated equ.40 and equ.41as well as the known prices for Hu n. g . = 47.51 GJ/tn and estimation for efficiency η CHP = 85% we have that M n' . g . =

E before + Q before (33,026.367 GWh + 14,421.20GWh) * 3600 170,811,240.112 = = tn equ.42 Hu n.g. * η CHP 47.51GJ/tn * 0.85 40.384

M n' . g . = 4,229,728.481 tn = 4,229.73 k tn of natural gas

equ.43

Then we can use the equation 44 to calculate the extracted emissions from this amount of natural gas : n. g . M NOX ' = EF n. g . NOx * M n. g . f = 4,229.73 ktn * 2.102 = 8,890.89 tn of NOx emission

equ.44

The gain in NOX is the difference between the prior CHP emissions M NOx and the

M n.g .' NOx emissions after. M gained NOx = M NOx − M n.g .' NOx = 39,518.37 tn NOx − 8,890.89 tn NOx M gained NO2 = 30,627.48 tn NOx equ.45 § 4.2.7.2 Typical GHG emissions of tertiary sector

In order to estimate the reduction of the GHG emissions, we firstly have to estimate, based on the typical consumptions as calculated in section 4.2.5, the emitted CO2, SO2 and NOx that are being produced on an annual basis due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Table 4.22 provides the amount of extracted pollutant in g per kg of combusted fuel and is an extract given by the Hellenic Ministry of Development in an annex in the “Energy investment guide” of the Operational Program Competitiveness at 2002. However, some fuels are not mentioned in the Energy Investment Guide

and GHG emissions are calculated by the method implied by IEA in “CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion-Beyond 2020 Documentation (2008 Edition). Table 4.16: Pollutant emissions per fuel (g/kg fuel) and for on-grid electrical energy(tn/GWh).

(source: Hellenic Ministry of Development, 2002) Fuel

Ef Pollutant emissions (g/kg fuel) CO2

SO2

NOx

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) Low Sulphur

3,175

5.363

Mazut Νο 1 (1500) High Sulphur

3,109

5.251

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) Low Sulphur

3,175

5.363

Mazut Νο 3 (3500) High Sulphur

3,091

5.221

Diesel

3,142

0.7

2.384

LPG

3,030

0.0

2.102

Natural Gas

2,715

0.0

2.102

Electrical energy

Emission for on-grid electrical energy production

Ef Pollutant emissions (tn/GWh)

850

15.5

1.2

The overall amount of electrical energy on annual basis of tertriary sector is 2,691.15 GWh due to 467GWh from health care buildings and 2,224.15 GWh due to hotels. Thus the emissions CO2, SO2 and NOx due to annual electrical energy of tertiary are given by equ 46.

tn * 2,691.15 GWh = 2,287,474.09 tn CO 2 GWh tn = Ef el SO 2 * E el = 15.5 * 2,691.15 GWh = 41,712.76 tn SO 2 GWh tn = Ef el NOx * E el = 1.2 * 2,691.15 GWh = 3,229.38 tn NO X GWh

M CO 2 = Ef

M SO 2

M NOx

CO 2

* E el = 850

equ.46

In the following estimations, assumptions are made that 60% of the thermal energy is produced using diesel oil as fuel and 40% natural gas, while we also consider 80% efficiency of diesel oil 88

boilers and 85% efficiency of natural gas boilers. Known parameters are the net calorific value of diesel oil is Hudiesel oil=43.38 GJ/tn and natural gas is Hun.g.=47.51 GJ/tn. To estimate the mass of natural gas and diesel oil that are used in order to produce thermal energy of 2,485.48 GWh we use the following equation 0.4 * 2,485.48 GWh * 3600 J M n. g . = = 88,627.67 tn natural gas equ.47 GJ 47.51 * 0.85 tn

M diesel =

0.6 * 2,485.48 GWh * 3600 J = 154,698.11 tn diesel oil GJ 43.38 * 0.8 tn

equ.48

These amounts of fuel produce emissions according to equation 49,50,51

diesel d n. g . diesel n. g . M CO2 = d M CO CO2 * M diesel + Ef CO2 * M n.g. = (3,142 2 + M CO2 = Ef

+ (2,715

kg *154,698.11tn) + tn

kg *114,552.44tn) = 628,240.88+ 311,009.86= 726.69Ktn CO2 tn

diesel d n. g . M SO 2 = d M SO 2 + M SO 2 = Ef

diesel

SO 2

* M diesel + Ef

n. g .

SO 2

* M n.g. = (0.7

equ.49

kg * 154,698.11 tn) + 0 = tn

= 108,288.67 kg SO 2

diesel d n. g . M NOx = d M NOx + M NOx = Ef

+ (2.102

diesel

NOx

* M diesel + Ef

n. g .

NOx

* M n.g. = (2.384

equ.50

kg * 154,698.11 tn) + tn equ.51

kg * 114,552.44tn) = 476,679,264.10 + 240,789,220.23 = 0.56 Ktn NOx tn

Consequently, to estimate the overall amount of emissions deriving from direct fuel consumptions and electrical energy of tertiary sector we use the equation 52, 53 and 54

. M CO 2 = d M CO 2 + e M CO 2 = 726.68.25 Ktn + 2,287,474.09 tn = 3,014,159.65 K tn CO 2

equ.52

. M SO 2 = d M SO 2 + e M SO 2 = 108.28 tn + 41,712.76 tn = 41.82 Ktn SO 2

equ.53

. M NOx = d M NOx + e M NOx = 0.56 Ktn + 3.2 Ktn = 3.78 K tn NOx

equ.54

To estimate the emissions after the installation of CHP plants in tertiary we use the equation as well as the known prices for Hu n. g . = 47.51 GJ/tn and η CHP = 85%

Thus, we have that

M n' . g . =

E before + Q before (2,691.15 GWh + 2,485.48 GWh) * 3600 = = 461,472.23 tn equ.55 Hu n.g. * η CHP 47.51GJ/tn * 0.85

And respectively those 461,472.23 tn of natural gas produce the emissions kg l ' M CO * 461,472.23 tn) = 1,252.9 K tn CO 2 2 = Ef CO 2 * M' n.g. = ( 2,715 tn

l ' M SO 2 = Ef SO 2 * M' n.g. = (0

kg * 461,472.23 tn) = 0 Ktn SO 2 tn

' M NOx = Ef l NOx * M' n.g. = (2.102

kg * 461,472.23 tn) = 0.97 Ktn NOx tn

equ.56

equ.57

equ.58

§ 4.2.8 Emissions and emission reductions of operating Greek CHP plants

Summing the electrical energy of CHP plants currently operating in both industrial and tertiary sector we have the amount of Eel=2,736. Thus the estimated emissions prior and after the use those plants are estimated hereafter:

tn * 2,736.43 GWh = 2,325,964 tn CO 2 GWh tn = Ef el SO 2 * E el = 15.5 * 2,736.43 GWh = 42,415 tn SO 2 GWh tn = Ef el NOx * E el = 1.2 * 2,736.43 GWh = 3,284 tn NO X GWh

M CO 2 = Ef

M SO 2

M NOx

CO 2

* E el = 850

equ.59

The overall electrical energy that is been consumed due to industrial production which amount is 14.421 TWh while the relevant amount only for industries as given in table 4.1-CHP Units in operation is 2.68 GWh. Therefore units consume 0.019 % of the energy of the overall electrical energy of the industrial sector. This percentage will help us make the assumptions that the amount of fuel used by those industrial units is of the percentage of 0.019% of the overall quantities of fuel presented in table 4.17. Table 4.17 :Fuel in K tn used to meet thermal energy needs of CHP industrial operating plants.

Fuel

Ktn

Hard Coal & Derivatives

10.46

Lignite & Derivatives

6.25

Coke

0.07

Brown Coal Briquettes

2.10

LPG

4.71

Gas / Diesel Oil

8.14

Residual Fuel Oil

12.37

Other Petroleum Products

10.46

Kerosenes - Jet Fuels

0.07

Natural Gas

8.19

Using the methodology described analytically in section 4.2.7.1.1 we estimate CO2 emissions of operating CHP plants in Greek industry.

solid d liquid d gas M CO 2 = d M CO 2 + M CO 2 + M CO 2 =

44 [γ h -cη h -c d M h −c + γ lη l d M l + γ ckη ck d M ck + γ bcbη bcb d M bcb ] + 12

44 [γ gd -oη gd-o d M gd −o + γ rf -oη rf -o d M rf -o + γ o-pη o − p d M o − p + γ kjf η kjf d M kjf ] + 12 44 + [γ lpgη lpg d M lpg + γ n.g.η n.g d M n.g. ] = 12

= 3.59[(640.52 tn C/ktn *10.46ktn) + (145.73tn C/ktn * 6.25ktn) + + (854.57tn C/ktn * 0.07ktn) + (341.28tn C/ktn * 2.1ktn)] + + 3.630[(876.28 tn C/ktn * 8.14 ktn) + (858.35 tn C/ktn * 12.37 ktn) + + (803.80 tn C/ktn * 10.46 ktn) + (869.51tn C/ktn * 0.07 ktn) + + 3.648[+(813.73 tn C/ktn * 4.71ktn) + (726.90 tn C/ktn * 8.19ktn)] = = 29,629.35 + 68,275.78 + 17,569.80 = 115,474.93 tn CO 2 d

M CO 2 = 115,474.93 tn CO 2

equ.60

Using the methodology described analytically in section 4.2.7.1.2 we estimate SO2 emissions of operating CHP plants in Greek industry. d

solid d liquid d gas M SO 2 = d M SO 2 + M SO 2 + M SO 2 =

64 [γ ' h -c η ' h -c d M h −c + γ ' l η ' l d M l + γ ' ck η ' ck d M ck + γ ' bcb η ' bcb d M bcb ] + 32 64 + [γ ' gd -o η ' gd -o d M gd −o + γ ' rf -o η ' rf -o d M rf -o + γ ' o-p η ' o − p d M o − p + γ ' kjf η ' kjf d M kjf ] + 32 64 + γ ' lpg η ' lpg d M lpg = 32 = 1.98[(1 tn S/ktn * 10.46ktn) + (2tn S/ktn * 6.25ktn) + =

[

]

+ (2tn S/ktn * 0.07ktn) + (1tn S/ktn * 2.10ktn)] + + 1.98[(2 tn S/ktn * 8.14 ktn) + (2 tn S/ktn * 12.37 ktn) + + (2 tn S/ktn * 10.56 ktn) + (2 tn S/ktn * 0.07 ktn) + + 1.98[(0.2 tn S/ktn * 4.71.00ktn)] = 37.54 tn + 90.74tn + 1.87tn = 130.141 tn SO 2 d

M SO 2 = 130.141 tn SO 2

equ.61

Using the methodology described analytically in section 4.2.7.1.3 we estimate NOx emissions of operating CHP plants in Greek industry.

The direct amount of NOx is calculated by multiplying the emission factor as given by d equ.62 M NOx = E fNOx * M f

M NOx = E fNOx * M f = ( E fNOx * M f ) LPG + ( E fNOx * M f ) diesel + ( E fNOx * M f ) mazut +

+ ( E fNOx * M f ) n. g = tn tn tn ) + (8.141Ktn * 2.384 ) + (10.46 Ktn * 5.251 )+ Ktn Ktn Ktn tn + (8.19 Ktn * 2.102 )= Ktn = 9.91 + 19.42 + 55.46 + 17.22 = 102 tn NOx

= (4.71Ktn * 2.102

Due to the fact that we didn’t estimate NOx emissions from combustion of hard coal, lignite, coke, briquettes, residual fuel oil and kerosenes due to lack of data for those specific fuels, we make an accession and we assume that 102tn NOx are 150 tn NOx.

Thus d M NOx = 150 tn NOx is the mass of NOx from direct combustion of fuels

The overall amount of GHG emission as estimated for the specific CHP operating in Greece is given by the equation : MCO2= d M CO 2 + e M CO 2 = 115,474.93 tn CO 2 + 2,325,964 tn CO 2 = 2,441,438.93 tn CO 2

equ.64

MSO2= d M SO 2 + e M SO 2 = 130.141 tn SO 2 + 42,415 tn SO 2 = 42,545.14 tn SO 2

equ.65

MNOx= d M NOn + e M NOx = 150 tn NO X + 3,284 tn NO X = 3,434.00 tn NO X

equ.66

To estimate the GHG emissions of CHP plants currently in operation we know that:

M n' . g . =

E before + Q before (2,736 GWh + 4,234 GWh) * 3600 = = 621,404.21 tn equ.68 Hu n.g. * Îˇ CHP 47.51GJ/tn * 0.85

And respectively those 621,404.21 tn of natural gas produce the emissions ' l M CO 2 = Ef CO 2 * M' n.g. = (3,142

' l M SO 2 = Ef SO 2 * M' n.g. = (0.

kg * 621,404.21 tn) = 1,687,112.42 tn CO 2 tn

kg * 621,404.21 tn) = 0 Ktn SO 2 tn

' M NOx = Ef l NOx * M' n.g. = (2.102

kg * 621,404.21 tn) = 1,306.19 tn NOx tn

equ.69 equ.70 equ.71