East Africa: Testing Climate Models for Agricultural Impacts

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temperatures are found north of the Equator, where climatological mean temperatures are between 24 and 26ºC with the exception of Ethiopia where they are between 18ºC and 24ºC. Ethiopia largely has temperatures similar to those seen south of the equator. Of the focus countries, the lowest mean temperatures are found in Madagascar where the warmest month of January has mean temperatures of 24ºC and the lowest mean temperatures of 18ºC are found in the austral winter months of June to August. Figure 2.1: Annual and monthly observed temperature climatology for the region

The annual cycle has greatest amplitude in the north of the region over Sudan with mean temperatures in excess of more than 32ºC from May to September but only 14ºC in boreal winter. In contrast, the East African coastline of Kenya and Tanzania has a much less defined annual cycle, with mean temperatures consistently remaining in the region of 22ºC to 26ºC throughout the year. Ethiopia has relatively cool temperatures in comparison to the surrounding countries due to the highland areas of high relief. The landlocked countries of the domain; Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, have both consistent and moderate mean temperatures throughout the year in the region of 20–26ºC, with their equatorial location meaning there is little seasonal variation in mean temperatures. 2.2.2 Precipitation Figures 2.2a and 2.2b (the NCEP and JapRe reanalysis precipitation datasets) show the 1970– 1999 regional precipitation climatology and seasonal cycle. The primary feature of the

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