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Note the 4 straight years of progressing sales aFer demand hit the boHom in 2008. 7,000+ home sales in Ada County is considered healthy based on past history and new populaCon growth in the region.
Note the 6 strait declining years in New ConstrucCon. 2012 broke the trend and increase close to 50% compared to 2012. 2013 we predict more growth for New ConstrucCon, 1600+ New Home sales.
Home Sales priced below $120,000 plummeted in 2012 due to fewer foreclosures entering the market. 2013 will have even fewer home sales in this price sector, further protecCng median home prices from falling again.
Home sales priced between $200,000 and $400,000 rose over 40% compared to the previous 3 years.
Boise Home Prices have held in the 170’s or beHer since April 2012. We expect median home prices to average in the 180’s in 2013.
The supply of homes conCnues to fall, now reaching 10 year lows. In 2013 we expect to begin to increase, but these current lows are helping to push up home prices.
Short Sale Inventory is Down 65% Since Peak REO (Bank Owned) Inventory Down 89% From Peak
Forecast: REO and SS inventory will con6nue to shrink while non-‐ distressed inventory will swell by 20% or more in 2013.
NoCce how the lower priced home inventory has really diminished over Cme while the mid to upper priced home inventory has remained fairly consistent. (Inventory typically shrinks a bit every year in the winter months).
Selling Odds is defined as the number of homes listed for sale divided by the number of home sales in a given month. This calculaCon shows the strength or weakness of a given market based on supply and demand. The industry standard for a healthy market is considered 6 months of inventory. Below is considered a sellers’ market and above is a buyers’ market. This chart shows the last 3 months’ selling odds for the different price ranges for the county. Everything under $500,000 has selling odds under 6 months, which is a strong sign home prices should conCnue to creep up.
This chart illustrates how the selling odds have changed over Cme in different price categories. Note that the $400k-‐500k price range is best in early summer months, but improved in the fall from the lack of inventory.
This chart shows the selling odds for the county from 2008 – 2012. The worst month for ADA County was 15.6 months of ExisCng Homes (New ConstrucCon was not included in this chart). Most of 2012 was around 3 months of inventory. Observa6ons: If a home in the county is priced right, it sells very fast. However, many homes sit on the market for a very long 6me and oIen don’t sell if they are priced over what the market will currently bear.
SELLING ODDS
This chart shows the average discount a seller is making between their list price and the sale price. This number is skewed a bit due to undervalued foreclosure properCes being bid up well over asking price on a regular basis. This number also doesn’t track original list price, just current asking price. Dec 2012 shows a 1.8% discount.
Pending Sales in 2012 were well up over 2011, however, much of the pending sales are New ConstrucCon. Pending sales are important to watch; they are a mini forecast of future sales in a market. Sales will be slow in Jan and Feb, but will begin to pick up in March and will likely peak in May and June.
This chart illustrates why anyone who purchased a home between 2005-‐2009 likely sCll has significant negaCve equity, however, those who purchased in 2004 or earlier are likely in good shape now, unless they have foreclosures in their neighborhood.
This chart shows the Median Sales Price for the County (Blue), the Pink shows the Median Sales price once you remove the Foreclosure (Distressed) Sales. Yellow shows a 3.7% appreciaCon (historical norm) since the year 2000. It’s interesCng to see the pink line is almost to the yellow.
-‐ Inventory will swell to 2500 homes or 10%+ increase. The posiCve naConal news is geing a lot of people confident that they may be able to sell in 2013, more will try. -‐ Sales will not change much, within 2-‐5% change either way. The lack of low priced inventory will slow sales of local consumers, but we will see more people moving to Boise that sCll see Boise as affordable. Balanced. -‐ Price: Median sales price for Ada will move from the current average of $175,000 to $185,000+. I don’t think we will ever see a Median price below 150k again, maybe not 160k. Even in winter months. To Speak to Front Street Brokers Agent about the Boise Housing Market call 208-‐740-‐5000 or go to www.FrontStreetBrokers.com
See More Charts and Analysis on the Boise Idaho Market at: hHp://frontstreetbrokers.com/category/news/market-‐update
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