Land use Planning System and Housing Development Process in Malaysia

78 3.3.2.2 Forecasting of Future Housing Requirement The forecasting of future housing requirement is one of the important activities in the process of preparing development plans aimed to identify the total number of houses needed by households in the future. It is also useful to know the types and preferences of houses to be in demand to satisfy different types of households in particular areas (Blake and Nicol, 2004).

According to Field and MacGregor (1987) and Nooraini (1988), there are five basic ingredients to forecast the future housing requirement, namely future population, future household number, existing housing stock, estimated deficit or surplus between household formation and housing stock and future housing land requirements. Mark (1995) and Blake and Nicol (2004), however stress that to achieve a perfect and an integrated forecast, socio-economic variables such as expected future household income and expected future housing preferences are required to be incorporated in the calculation of housing forecasts.

In the context of the SP’s housing forecast, both SP manuals only provide a simple guidance to estimate the future housing requirement. The manuals stipulate that the outcomes of future housing forecasts should be in two forms, which are in the form of total housing quantity (housing needs) and in the form of housing demands. For the forecast of future housing needs, both manuals have stipulated that it must be produced in two time-frames, which is by the overall planning period as well as a break-down by certain planning periods. Both manuals suggest that the estimation should be divided according to a 5-year interval. For future housing demand, both manuals suggest forecasts according to housing category and type (Table 3.2).

It should also be noted that both manuals did not specify clear guidance on the forecasting techniques and aspects that need to be applied and considered in conducting housing forecasts. The absence of the guidance has left the SPs applying independently different housing forecasting techniques, from an integrated technique to a common and simple one. The integrated version of forecasting technique, as based on the view by Mark (1995), requires the housing forecasts to incorporate the