ON THE FRONT LINES OF THE FUTURE: NEW ORLEANS, DETROIT, PHOENIX Cities are brokers of complex truths, the result of decisions that are
“a forlorn, modern day Cheops”
registered on their very surfaces. Three exemplars in this regard are New Orleans, Detroit, and Phoenix; in Detroit parlance- the “New Big Three.” These cities are serving as the scouts for the rest of the nation as they confront some of our most pressing challenges. They have visited the frontlines of the future and are reporting back to the rest of us, a bit wobbly and worse for wear, but still standing and in some respects, rejuvenated. With plenty of evidence to support their claims, they can speak authoritatively on the impacts of aging infrastructure (New Orleans), economic globalization (Detroit), and climate change (Phoenix). They also share social, financial, and educational inequities
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that are a drag on their respective futures and the nation as a whole. As such, they are important vitality indicators and reflective of the most critical issues of our time. An initial consideration of this triumvirate might seem discordant given their differences but no other cities in the U.S. have inspired more documentation of exuberance, decline and rebirth. A wealth of readily
“No other cities in the U.S. have inspired more documentation of exuberance, decline and rebirth”
available literature on each city captures the origins, drivers of success, and failure to attend to obvious warning signals. New Orleans and
unrealistic optimism to be generated and alter(s) our perceptions and
Detroit are, of course, the bookends to any contemporary discussion
actions. In order to understand the optimism bias, we first need to look
about extreme disruption to the urban core by external forces-
at how, and why, the brain creates illusions of reality.” The findings,
hurricane Katrina and international competitiveness, respectively. With
while directed at individual decision-making, seem to capture the
less drama but clearly visible stress points, the Phoenix region is
historical record of American urbanism as well. Given the enormity (if
coming to grips with issues of self-inflicted temperature increases and
not impossibility) of charting a course for a city and the implications of
reliable access to water, issues which authors have addressed for
getting it wrong, it is instructive to keep one of Sharot’s directives in
decades. The recently published, “Bird on Fire, Lessons from the World’s
mind: “We need to burst a giant bubble- the notion that we perceive the
Least Sustainable City (Phoenix),” by Andrew Ross, will continue the
world as it really is.” 3 This is what is so beguiling about cities- they
trend:
“Footage of the metro region’s outer-ring subdivisions
are simultaneously our most substantial material creations (“what
reclaimed by sage grass, tumbleweed, and geckos was as evocative of
really is”) but also places of illusion, especially for the inattentive
the bubble’s savage aftermath as photographs of the Dust Bowl’s
viewer.
windblown soil had been of the Great Depression.”
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Given the
preponderance of documentation, these cities tell us a great deal about
The optimism bias causes us to imagine a future in which things
ourselves in fundamental terms: what we value, what we don’t, and our
proceed according to plan thus encouraging the continuation of
prospects for the future, regardless of whether we choose to
conventional behaviors and goals setting based on current realities. It
acknowledge the evidence or not.
is hard to imagine functioning otherwise, the survival aspect being obvious. But, when applied to larger systems the bias can produce
New Orleans, Detroit, and Phoenix blossomed for very clear reasons:
unintended consequences of massive proportions. Officials in New
geography, industry, and mobility, the details of which reflect trends in
Orleans surely suffered from the affliction believing the levee walls
the U.S. as a whole. Their growth was also abetted by an agent we have
protecting the city were sound and the flood relief adequate (video
only recently come to know through behavioral research and real time
footage featuring then FEMA director, Michael Brown, is a case study).
images of brain function: the “optimism bias.” As Tali Sharot writes in
Moving to Detroit, the auto executive in the Renaissance Center or the
her book of the same title, “…the architecture of the brain…allows
teamster pushing yet another 4000 lb. vehicle off the assembly line,
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