Climate Change in the South Caucasus A Visual Synthesis
Climate Change in the South Caucasus Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports. This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership.
Printed on 100% recycled paper. © Zoï Environment Network 2011 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose what so ever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the ENVSEC partner organizations and governments. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a commercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperating partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.
2
Concept Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett Collages Nina Joerchjan Maps and Graphics Manana Kurtubadze Text and interviews Zurab Jincharadze Design and Layout Manana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert Contributors and Interviewees Ramaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov, Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan, Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva, Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin Zakaryan.
Contents
6
The South Caucasus at a Glance
18
Climate Change Trends and Scenarious in the Region
30
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
40
Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
3
Foreword Climate Change in the Caucasus — A my th no longer In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punishment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle. In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods. So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the potential impacts of climate change. As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beautiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure. With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tradition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts. Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Caucasian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth. Otto Simonett Director, Zoï Environment Network Geneva, January 2012 4
Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums
Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Air temperature (last half century)
Precipitation and snow (last half century)
Desertification
Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Melting ice (last half century)
Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100) Health Infectious and vector-borne diseases Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005
Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005
Policy instruments, actions and awareness
Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009) increase, enchancement
decrease, reduction
increase in some areas
Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009.
5
Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA
The South Caucasus at a Glance
G r
Ter ek
Caspian
e
Elbrus 5 642
a
t
Abkhazia Sukhumi
uri ng
I
Poti
Kutaisi
i
L Batumi
Adjara
lak
Rioni
Rion
e
R U S S I A N F E D E R AT I O N
a u
s
Al
az
Kur
a
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
Telavi
Tbilisi
e
c
an
i
s
Kur
r
a
d be
Sheki
s
Alaverdi De Gyumri Vanadzor
r
m
e
n
i
a
A
Lake Sevan
u
Armavir
n
n
a
A
4 090 Aragats
Yerevan
Nagorno Karabakh
i
g
h
l
a
n
d
Lachin
s
H
Ararat 5 165
a
Ara
s
c
metres
T U R K E Y
A Z Nakhchivan
0 -500 -1,000 -1,500
Glaciers
Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir
Ganja
A R M E N I A
Kars
C
ta u n khi) o o c M or Ponti Ch ( h Ç oru
a
Iori
Rustavi
in
8
C
Tskhinvali
Kura
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 200 0 Depression
Su
5 033 Kazbek
G E O R G I A s
Makhac
Vladikavkaz
da
BLACK SEA
Grozny
Magas
Shkhara 5 068
Colchis Plain
Depression
Nalchik
Hraz
Sochi
Nakhchivan
Goris
u
s
Kapan
Meghri
Lake Van Van
Khankendi (Stepanakert)
I R A N
as
Ar
ian
ssion
GENER AL OVERVIEW
Makhachkala
The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and eastern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome.
CASPIAN SEA
I A N AT I O N
s
ur
m
u
Sa
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
s
Sheki
AZOV SEA
Mingechevir reserv. echevir
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Sumgayit NORTH CAUCASUS
Absheron
A Z E R B A I J A N
Baku
BLACK SEA
CASPIAN SEA
Kur
GEORGIA SOUTH CAUCASUS ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
a
nkendi nakert)
Kura-Aras Depression TURKEY
AZ
Neftchala
as
Ar
Ta l
ys
IRAN
Lankaran
h
CYPRUS 0
100 km
LEBANON
SYRIA
IRAQ 0
150 km
The South Caucasus at a Glance
9
Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus Nalchik
Abkhazia
Çor
C uh (
r ho
hi) ok
Temperature (°C)
Adjara
Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
Kur
Telavi
a
Tbilisi
Kur
a
Alaverdi De Gyumri Vanadzor Kars
Armavir
Aras
16.0° 13.0° 10.0° 7.0° 5.0° 1.5° -1.0°
Io
ri
Sheki Mingechevir reserv.
AZERBAIJAN NagornoKarabakh
Yerevan
Lachin Goris
Nakhchivan
Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; World Trade Press, 2007.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake Sevan
AZ Nakhchivan Lake Van
i
Ganja
ARMENIA an
SEA
an
Rustavi d be
Kura
TURKEY
az
ur
GEORGIA
CASPIAN
Sa m
i
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
d
Batumi
S
Kutaisi
Rion
k ula
Rioni
Hraz
Poti
SEA
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
k
n g uri
Sukhumi
Ter e
Kapan Meghri
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi (Stepanakert) as
Neftchala
Ar
0
100 km
Geography and Climate Almost every climatic zone is represented in the South Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the region. Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The
10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in southwest Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Georgia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300 and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and winter months due to a more continental climate.
Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
i
S
Tskhinvali
GEORGIA
Adjara
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
az
Kur
Telavi
a
Tbilisi
Rustavi Kur
Kura
hi) ok
TURKEY
Precipitation 2,000 mm 1,600 mm 800 mm 600 mm 400 mm 200 mm less than 200 mm
Kars
Armavir
Aras
ri
Sheki
Ganja
Mingechevir reserv.
AZERBAIJAN NagornoKarabakh
Yerevan
Lachin Goris
Nakhchivan
The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At altitudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies between 24–26°C. The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake Sevan
Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
ur
m
Sa
Io
AZ Nakhchivan Lake Van
SEA
i
ARMENIA an
CASPIAN
an
Alaverdi Deb Gyumri Vanadzor d
or
a
ed
Hraz
Çor
Ch uh (
k ula
Rioni
Kutaisi
Rion
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
k
n g uri
Sukhumi
Ter e
Kapan Meghri
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi (Stepanakert) as
Neftchala
Ar
0
100 km
The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azerbaijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in mountainous areas alpine. The average annual temperature varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the lowlands to temperate and cold in the high mountains.
The South Caucasus at a Glance 11
Tere k
Sochi Nalchik
Grozny
Abkhazia
Magas
Sukhumi
Makh
Vladikavkaz
lak
ng
uri
Su
Rioni
BLACK SEA
Rion
i
Poti
Kutaisi
Te r e
k
I
G E O RGIA Gori Batumi
Adjara
RUSSIAN
Tskhinvali Al
Kur
a
Telavi
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
Rustavi
Kura
T U R K E Y
Alaverdi Gyumri
F EDERATIO N
az
an
i
Iori
ed
a
Ganja
Vanadzor
da
Subtropical forests Temperate forests
Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir
ARMENIA Armavir
Hraz
Floodplains and wetlands
Sheki
Kur
b De
n
Lake Sevan
Yerevan
Coniferous forests
NagornoKarabakh
Steppes
Lachin
Arid deserts and semi-deserts Sub-alpine and alpine meadows Glaciers
Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
AZ
Nakhchivan
Nakhchivan
Goris Kapan
Khankendi (Stepanakert) as
Ar
Meghri
IRA
Ecosystems
Makhachkala
A N
CASPIAN SEA
T IO N
Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan
Ecosystems
r
The complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Caucasus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and semi-deserts of the lowland east.
mu
Sa
heki
ngechevir reserv. evir
Sumgayit
A ZERBAIJAN Baku Kur
a
endi nakert)
as
Neftchala
Ar
IR A N 0
100 km Debed river at Northern Armenia The South Caucasus at a Glance 13
Population dynamics in 1989–2010 Million 10 Azerbaijan 9 8 7 6 Georgia 5 4 3 Armenia 2 1 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics.
Population by age groups in 2010 10%
72%
7%
71%
14%
69%
18%
23%
17%
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
65 and over
15–64
0–14
Main figures Armenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010). Total area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4 per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population migration -1.7 per 1,000 population. Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010). Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8 per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population migration -1.4 per 1,000 population. Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010). Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population migration -18.1 per 1,000 population.
Urban and rural population in 2010
10% 36%
46%
47%
Rural
43%
64%
54%
53%
Urban
57%
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
70%
19% Total
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Total
Population in the South Caucasus
Terek
Abkhazia n g uri
I
Zugdidi Poti Batumi
Çoru h
(C
ho
Rion
i
GEORGIA ra
Adjara
i) kh ro
Ku
Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
az
Telavi
Tbilisi
Rustavi Kur
a
d
i
Hrazdan
Ara
1 dot = 500 inhabitants
2 millions
TURKEY
1 million
Lake Sevan
Yerevan
ri
Sheki Ganja
Mingechevir reserv.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
AZERBAIJAN Nagorno Karabakh
Lachin Khankendi (Stepanakert) Goris AZ Nakhchivan Kapan as Ar Nakhchivan Meghri
Lake Van
Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
Shirvan
Baku
Kura
Urban population, 2009
an
Samur
Io
ARMENIA
Vagharshapat s
CASPIAN SEA
an
Alaverdi Debe Gyumri Vanadzor
Kura
Rural population, 2002
300,000 100,000–200,000 50,000–100,000
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
d
BLACK SEA
lak
Su
Rioni
Hraz
Sukhumi
Neftchala
IRAN 0
100 km
Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN The South Caucasus at a Glance 15
GDP in 1990–2010
Million USD
Azerbaijan
50
GDP per capita in 1990–2010
USD
Azerbaijan
6,000
40
5,000
30
4,000
Armenia
3,000
20
Georgia
10
Armenia
0
2,000
Georgia
GDP by sectors in 2010
1,000 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Armenia
Source: World Bank statistics.
Source: UN statistics.
GDP by sectors in 2010
Services 31%
Economic Overview
Armenia
Industry 47%
Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union 1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exrapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, Agriculturethey grew at nearly9% Serviceseconomic declines at the start of the 22% countries growth rates perienced dramatic a year from 1997 to 2002. In these GDP by sectors in 2010 Industry 31% 1990s. For example in Armenia, between 1990 and 1993, were even higher in 2003 and 2004 (see table 16). In Geor47% the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In gia economic growth has been unstable in recent years, Azerbaijan Armenia Agriculture Azerbaijan GDP fell by an annual average of about 13%, varying between about 1.8% in 2000, 10.6% in 1997, and 22% while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994. 6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010 Services of economic reforms and the However, the launching Azerbaijan amounted to 6.4%. Services Industry Industry 33% achievement of political stability by the second half of31% the 61%
47%
Services 33%
Industry
61% GDP by sectors in 2010 Agriculture 6%
Services 31%
Georgia
Industry Industry 47% 27% Agriculture 11%
Source: www.indexmundi.com
Services Industry Services 31% Industry 47% 33% Agriculture 22%
Agriculture 6%
Industry 61%
Services 33%
Services 62%
Azerbaijan Source: www.indexmundi.com
Industry 61% Industry
27%
AgricultureServices 6% 62%
Georgia Industry 27%
61%
Georgia
Azerbaijan
33% in the South Caucasus 16 Climate Change
Agriculture 6%
Armenia Azerbaijan
Armenia
Services Agriculture 62% 22%
Services
Agriculture
GDP by 22% sectors in 2010
Agriculture 11%
Agriculture 11%
Armenia
Land use in 2009
Georgia
Azerbaijan
12%
13%
4%
3% Agricultural land
32% 13%
55%
43%
Forest Water
71%
1%
12%
41%
Other
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA The South Caucasus at a Glance 17
Ararat Valley, ARMENIA
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus 1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan
Changes of annual air temperature BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
ARMENIA
(C°) 1
AZERBAIJAN
0.5 AZ
0
IRAN
Changes of summer air temperature BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
CASPIAN SEA
(C°) 1.5
TURKEY
ARMENIA
1
AZERBAIJAN
0.5 AZ
0
IRAN
Changes of winter air temperature BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
CASPIAN SEA
(C°)
1 TURKEY
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
0.5 0
AZ IRAN
-0.5
Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Regional Climate Change Trends To study global warming scenarios and risks associated with climate change trends on a regional level in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented by UNDP. The project brought together leading national experts engaged in the preparation of the second national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the UNFCCC. Precipitation and temperature data from the key meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus countries were examined in the following sequence : Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21 stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for 1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for the summer, winter and the whole year. During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the highest registered temperatures during the last 10 years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the last 50 years the data shows a different trend: during the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). Regional differences are also reported from Azerbaijan, with the highest temperature increase in the Greater Caucasus and Kura‐Aras lowlands, and from Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat lowlands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to Lake Sevan.
Relative humidity 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30%
Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort) 26°
27°
28°
29°
30°
31°
32°
33°
34°
35°
36°
37°
38°
39°
28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.8
30.7 30.2 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4
33.8 32.9 32.1 31.4 30.7 30.0 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1
37.1 35.9 34.7 33.7 32.7 31.8 31.0 30.3 29.7 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.9
40.7 39.1 37.7 36.3 35.0 33.8 32.8 31.9 31.1 30.3 29.7 29.2 28.8
44.7 42.7 40.9 39.2 37.6 38.7 34.9 33.7 32.6 31.7 30.9 30.3 29.7
48.9 46.6 44.4 42.3 40.4 38.7 37.1 35.6 34.4 33.3 32.3 31.5 30.8
53.5 50.8 48.1 45.7 43.5 41.4 39.5 37.8 36.3 34.9 33.8 32.8 32.0
58.5 55.2 52.2 49.4 46.8 44.4 42.2 40.2 38.4 36.8 35.4 34.3 33.3
63.7 60.0 56.5 53.3 50.3 47.6 45.1 42.8 40.7 38.8 37.2 35.8 34.7
63.7 65.1 61.2 57.5 54.2 51.0 48.1 45.5 43.1 41.0 39.1 37.5 36.2
75.1 70.4 66.1 62.0 58.2 54.7 51.4 48.5 45.8 43.4 41.2 39.3 37.8
81.2 76.1 71.3 66.8 62.5 58.6 55.0 51.6 48.6 45.9 43.4 41.3 39.4
87.7 82.1 76.8 71.8 67.1 62.7 58.7 55.0 51.6 48.5 45.8 43.3 41.2
Temperature (C°) 40° 41° 94.5 88.3 82.5 77.0 71.9 67.1 62.6 58.5 54.8 51.3 48.3 45.5 43.1
101.6 94.9 88.6 82.6 77.0 71.7 66.8 62.3 58.1 54.3 20.9 47.8 45.1
Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Heat Waves The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate study group constructed a regional model on the urban heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, including Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index that is a combination of air temperature and relative humidity during the warm periods of a year. The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are “translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity
(%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990– 2007 time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis, and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analysis of the calculation and forecast models show that four out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last 15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dramatically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.
Comparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future Vanadzor
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Tbilisi
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Baku
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Normal
1,283
773
868
1,338
1,349
1,525
508
872
1,037
Warm
682
1,551
2,558
796
843
1,161
463
607
1,063
Very warm
482
736
745
310
545
1,527
331
749
1,858
Hot
1
0
305
4
17
287
13
63
539
Very hot
0
0
113
0
0
0
0
0
3
Extremly hot
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Number of dangerous days
483
736
1,164
314
562
1,814
344
812
2,400
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 21
Forecasted changes of annual air temperature in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
Changes in 2011–2040 BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
(C°) AZ
1.5
IRAN
Changes in 2041–2070 BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
ARMENIA
(C°)
AZERBAIJAN
3
AZ
2.5
IRAN
Changes in 2071–2100 BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
(C°)
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
5 4
AZ IRAN
3.5
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
GCM PRECIS Models The analysis of climate change scenarios developed for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool revealed that changes of temperature by the end of the century will vary in the range of 3–6°C. According to the forecast made by the most appropriate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest increment in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment, for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia during the winter. The expected increase in mean annual temperature is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower, around 3.6°C.
Forecasted changes of annual precipitation in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
Changes in 2011–2040 BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
5% 0%
AZ
-5%
IRAN
Changes in 2041–2070 BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN SEA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
0% -5%
AZ
-10%
IRAN
Changes in 2071–2100 According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus region) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period 2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Georgia, rising to 24% for Armenia. The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in summer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in Azerbaijan in the winter.
BLACK SEA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
CASPIAN SEA
-5% -10% -15%
AZ IRAN
-20%
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 23
Changes in average annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared to 1961–1990 Temperature change (C°) 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
Precipitation change (mm) 100 50 0
Climate Change Trends in Armenia As a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated deviations of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990. According to the study average annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased by 6% during the last 80 years. However, the changes show different trends by regions and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed stable in winter months. During the last 15 years summers were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006. The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia between 1929 and 2008. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in Armenia is quite irregular; north‐eastern and central (Ararat valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while the southern and north‐western parts and the Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the last 70 years.
-50 -100 1940
1950
1960
1970
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, compared to 1961–1990 Precipitation change (%)
(C°) Temperature change
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
2030
1
1
1
1
1
2070
3
3
3
3
2100
4
5
4
4
Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
2030
-3
-3
-7
1
-3
3
2070
-5
-5
-14
3
-6
4
2100
-7
-8
-19
3
-9
Changes in average annual Temperature in Azerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990 Ganja
C° 2 1 0 -1 -2 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
C° 2
1998
1999
2000
Nakhchivan
1 0 -1 -2 -3 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
C°
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Climate Change Trends in a zerbaijan Climate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan for some decades too. The data from the National Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990. As part of the National Communication study, the average annual temperature and precipitation anomalies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90 level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to +1.91°C. The average annual precipitation was below the norm in almost all regions. However, differences seemed more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in Nakhchivan (17.1%). In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%.
Absheron (Mashtaga)
2 1 0 -1 -2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
C° 2
1998
1999
2000
Lankaran
1 0 -1 -2 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 25
Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia 1951–2002 (C°) Temperature change Precipitation change (%) 120
7.5 7
110
6.5
100
6
90
5.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
2000 1950
1990
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: www.climatewizard.org
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi 1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970 Precipitation change (%)
(C°) Temperature change 2
80
1.5
60 40
1
20
0.5
0
0
-20
-0.5 -1
-40 -60 I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX X
XI
XII
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
Dedoplistskaro
IX
X
XI
XII
Lentekhi
Climate Change Trends in Georgia The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an overall trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC Second National Communication from Georgia identifies three areas as most sensitive to climate change and therefore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal 26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro district of the Alazani river basin. To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particular. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures, mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening regime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005.
Precipitation at different altitudes of the Alazani River catchment
Precipitation, mm 2,500 2,000
East part
1,500 1,000
West part
500 0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000 Altitude, m
The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total from the first to the second period in all three priority regions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed for four time intervals of different duration (1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years.
Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP, UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Alazani River Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 27
Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990 ra
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
Ku
Khram
i
5°
Tbilisi K ur a
13%
Tsalka Eddikilisa
GEORGIA
i hram
K
Ma s h
Increase
ir Ta s h
Tashir
Stepanavan
4,8°
Temperature C°
Precipitation % Decrease
16%
15%
d
16%
Ijevan Dilijan
Vanadzor
Kvareli 5.8° 4.9° 5.3° 5%
8%
Telavi
5.2°
12%
5.3°
4.8°
Lagodekhi
Tbilisi
4%
Ku
ra
Zakatala
Gurjaani Tsnori
Ala
Temperature C°
Precipitation %
zan
i
i
Ior
4.8°
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
11%
8%
Increase
Sheki
11%
Decrease 0
50 km
AZERBAIJAN
AZ
The Alazani River Basin
Akhmeta
ARMENIA
5°
GEORGIA
7%
Khrami-Debed river basin
17%
ARMENIA
5.4°
Alazani river basin GEORGIA
5°
be
10 km
0
BLACK SEA
Red Bridge Sadakhlo
De
5°
Gargar Tumanian
Pa m bak
11%
Iori
Khra mi
5°
er
Dmanisi
a
av
Akhalkalaki
Bolnisi
CASPIAN SEA
AZERBAIJAN
28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Mingechevir reserv.
Changes in hydrological balance in the Khrami-Debed and Ala z ani river basins The Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two important trans-boundary watersheds and major sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce water resources between Armenia and Georgia (Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Alazani). This area is prone to land degradation and desertification from the forecast extremes of climate change, translating to economic losses and increased poverty for local population The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vulnerability of these river basins to climate change using PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning Model) tools to assess the changes expected in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and annual stream flows compared with the baseline years of 1961–1990. The results of the study showed that immediate adaptation measures have to be taken by all riparian countries to overcome the expected losses to the economy of the region.
Changes in average annual stream flows at different points of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990
29%
Khram i
1,593
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
50%
Tsalka Yeddikilisa
GEORGIA
924
Yeddikilisa Tumanyan
480 Gargar
Akhalkalaki
Dmanisi
mi Khra Bolnisi
Ma s h
Stepanavan
AZ
54%
Gargar Tumanyan
Ijevan Dilijan
Vanadzor
ARMENIA
The Alazani River Basin
Alazani
Akhmeta
Telavi
1,874 1,336
Tbilisi Ku
ra
Shakriani 27%
Kvareli
38%
Gurjaani
Lagodekhi Chiauri
Tsnori
i
Section 0
50 km
Confluence
Zemo Kedi
Difference with 2070–2100 (%)
AZERBAIJAN
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Zakatala
26% 44%
Ior
Difference with 2020–2050 (%)
Agrichay
Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
d
be
De
GEORGIA
3,502
Zemo Kedi
29%
10 km
3,118
Chiauri
Red Bridge Sadakhlo
31%
Pa m bak
Section 0
Average annual stream flow in the Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
ir Ta s h
Tashir
Shakriani
mi
54%
Difference with 2071–2100 (%)
29%
Khra
a
Sadakhlo Red Bridge
Difference with 2041–2070 (%)
51%
60% 40%
46%
28%
35%
i
336
ra
Alaza n
267
Ku
er
ra
Ku
av
Average annual stream flow in the Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
59%
Sheki
Ag
ric
ha
i
Mingechevir reserv.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 29
Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006* By gases
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 25
25
24
24
N 2O CH4 CO2
23 22
Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy
23 22
21
21
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
1990
* Without LULUCF Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia 1990 level
Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy
-100%
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
+20%
+40%
1995
2000
2005
bed De
Ku
Economic map of Armenia
ra
r Io i
NS
GEORGIA
Kura
Alaverdi
Iron Cooper Copper-molybdenum Lead and zinc Chromite Aluminium
Mingechevir reserv.
Vanadzor Gyumri Artik
Coal BTC
, BS
Hrazdan
ARMENIA
Echmiadzin Aras
Nagorno Karabakh
Yerevan Ararat
Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Fruit-growering Vineyard Garden
NS
Armavir
AZERBAIJAN
Lake Sevan
BTE
Arable land
Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sisian
Goris
TURKEY Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan)
IRAN 0
50 km
Aras hydroscheme reserv.
Railway Roads
Kapan Meghri
Ara s
Oil pipeline Gas pipeline BTC BS BTE NS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South
Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal; Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI.
Armenia: GHG emissions by economic sectors After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Economic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual average of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was 12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with
the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%. The energy sector accounted for the major part of the total GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy- related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 33
Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005 By gases
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 80
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 80
N 2O CH4 CO2
70 60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy
70
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
1990
1995
2005
2000
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan 1990 level
Waste
Energy
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Baku, AZERBAIJAN 34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
NS
Al
Io
az
ri
Tbilisi
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
an
i
Mingechevir Mingechevir reserv.
Tovuz
Ganja
Yevlakh
BTC
BTE
AZERBAIJAN
, BS
Sumgayit
Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Refinery
Natural gas
Dubendi
Baku
Gypsum
ra
Neft Dashlari
Sangachal
Beylagan Khankendi (Stepanakert)
Salyan
Absheron
Aras hydroscheme reserv.
Nakhchivan
A
Iron Copper Molybdenum Lead and zinc Gold Railway Roads
Neftchala
Nakhchivan ras
Cement
Aluminium
Shah-Deniz
Ali-Bairamli
Fishery Oil
Chirag
Ku
NS
Nagorno Karabakh
AZ
Metallurgy
Kurdamir
Lake Sevan
ARMENIA
SEA
From
GEORGIA
Kazak hstan
CASPIAN
Samur
Economic map of Azerbaijan
Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Oil field Gas field
IRAN
Vineyard BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan BS — Baku-Supsa Transport by tanker
Garden
BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum NS — North-South
Arable land
Oil terminal
Cotton growing
Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008; Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources.
0
50 km
Sheep breeding
A zerbaijan: GHG emissions by economic sectors The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, textiles and the food industry. The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton, wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding. The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from
oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres. The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005 amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 35
Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
By gases
50
45
45
N 2O CH4 CO2
40 35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 0 1990
2000
2006
1990
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Georgia 1990 level
Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy
-80%
Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy
40
0
-100%
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
50
-60%
-40%
-20%
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
1995
2000
2005
Economic map of Georgia NS
Terek
Gagra
Sukhumi
k re Te
Abkhazia I nguri
Tkvarcheli
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
BLACK SEA
Zugdidi Anaklia Kulevi Poti
50 km
Tskhinvali
Zestaponi
Kura
Gori
BTC
Akhaltsikhe BTE
Telavi
Kaspi
Tbilisi
GEORGIA
BT
C,
Kazreti
TURKEY
Debed
Gypsum
Refinery
Cement
Fishery Wine-producing
Gold
Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data.
Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline
Garden Arable land
za
ni
Ku
ra
ARMENIA Vineyard
Ala
BS
E BT
Iron Manganese Copper Lead and zinc
Rustavi
Iori
Oil Natural gas Bituminous coal Brown coal Peat
BS
Ozurgeti
Adjara
ruh i) Ço okh r ho (C
Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials
Chiatura
Rioni
Batumi
Metallurgy
Tkibuli
Kutaisi
Supsa Kobuleti 0
lak
Su
i
on Ri
Oil terminal Transport by tanker
AZERBAIJAN BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan BS — Baku-Supsa BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum NS — North-South
Georgia: GHG emissions by economic sectors Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since 2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining, the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral water. Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times. Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (including citrus), and tea. Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply decrease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-
tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continuously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990 it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006 did not change significantly compared with 1990. However, the relative importance of different sources has changed (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 37
Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Magas Grozny In
Tkvarcheli
Sukhumi
Inguri Vardnili-1
Poti
Rion
i
Kutaisi
lak
Su
i
Rion
Zestaponi
Ksani
Gori
Adjara
oro Ch ( ruh Ço
1,300 MW 330–500 MW
Kars
300–550 MW
10–110 MW
110–220 MW
Transmission substations
Metsamor (440 MW)
800–1,200 MW
110–330 MW
Nuclear Power Plant
Aras
2,400 MW
Gas PP
500 kV
330 kV
330 kV
220 kV
220 kV
110 kV
110 kV
De
Shamkir
Mingechevir
Yenikend
Hrazdan
Azerbaijan
Argel Kanaker
Lake Sevan
Yerevan
AZ
Oil PP
Nakhchivan Lake Van
Mingechevir
Ganja
n
Yerevan
Samur
i
Mingechevir reserv.
Vanadzor
AZERBA NagornoKarabakh Khankendi (Stepanakert)
Goris Shamb Tatev
Kapan
Nakhchivan Meghri
IRAN Van
Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory.
38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
d
an
Lachin
Transmission lines
500 kV
ri
ARMENIA
Thermal Power Plant
az
Io
be
Alaverdi Gyumri
Al
Gardabani
Mtkvari
Hraz da
Hydro Power Plant
Kura
)
Rustavi Tbilisi
Khrami 1 Khrami 2
TURKEY
Telavi
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
i kh
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali Zhinvali
GEORGIA Batumi
Makhach
Vladikavkaz Lajanuri
BLACK SEA
ri gu
as
Ar
the Energy sector in the South Caucasus
asus
The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are commonly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation. Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources (hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consumption. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006, the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%. Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of 32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
Makhachkala
CASPIAN
SIAN AT I O N
SEA
Samur
vir reserv.
Mingechevir Sumgayit
Mingechevir
AZERBAIJAN
Absheron substation
Sumgayit
Baku
Shimal
Baku
Key sources of electricity in 2008 (in %) Armenia
Natural gas Oil products Hydropower
Shirvan
Kura
kendi panakert)
Azerbaijan
Nuclear
Neftchala
as
Ar
Georgia
N 0
100 km
Source: International Energy Agency.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 39
Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain, Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
Black Sea Coast, Georgia
Ps o
u Bzib
Gagra
+0.4 m -0.6°
Sukhumi Coastal zone
Sea surface water temperature since 1991
G E OriR G I A o Kod
Sukhumi
The Rioni River delta
Abkhazia
%
+40
Zugdidi
en kh Ts Kulevi +1.6° Kutaisi +0. +0.7 m 3 m Samtredia Ri o n Poti Lake Supsa Paliastomi +0.45 m The Rioni River lower reaches +0.2 m Batumi Adjara C +1.3°
+40%
BLACK SEA
i
+60%
Sedimentation
is Rio t s k a li ni
Storm surges for the last half century
I nguri
Sea level rise for the last century
The Chorokhi River delta
horokhi
+60%
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
Caspian Sea Coast, Azerbaijan
RUSSIAN FEDERATION r
mu
Sa
300 0 500 100 0
20 00
SEA
42
Inundated area (km²) at two differents levels by four segments:
Sumgayit
200
AZERBAIJAN 1118 0
CASPIAN
Segment 1
72
60 38
Absheron
Baku
60 32
Segment 2
as Ar 200 500
372
0 200
Segment 3
Neftchala 60
1000
IRAN
Kura
Kura-Aras Lowland
32
Ta l
ys
h
Segment 4
Astara
-25.0 m BS -26.5 m BS
mBS -26 -27 -28 -29
Caspian Sea level change in 1840–2005
1840
1880
1920
1960
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan.
42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
2000
Impacts of Climate Change: The Black Sea Coast, Georgia The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of railways and highways stretched along the coast, the important transportation and industrial hubs of port cities like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of settlements all play a significant role in the regional economy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC defines several specific sensitive areas along the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Impacts of Climate Change: The Caspian Sea Coast, A zerbaijan Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to 40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990 Precipitation change (%)
Temperature change (C°) Winter 2030 2070 2100
1.4 3.2 4–6
Spring 0.9 2.1 2.5–4.5
Summer 1.8 3.9 5–7
Autumn 1.8 3.9 5–7
Annual 1.5
2030
3.3 4.1–6.1
2070
2100 Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.
Autumn
Annual
-9
-2
- 5.5
-5
5
2.8
-7
-18
-4
-11
15
11
-11
11
6
East shore
-20
-10
-25
-5
-15
West shore
20
10
-15
15
7.5
Winter
Spring
East shore
-7
-4
West shore
7
+4
East shore
-15
West shore
Summer
Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 43
Mudflow and landslide high risk zones in the South Caucasus
Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
Su
i
G E O R G I A Gori Adjara
Al
az
Kur
a
Telavi
Tbilisi
Kur
a
Kars
ri
Ganja
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia.
Sumgayit
AZERBAIJAN
Goris AZ Kapan Nakhchivan
Landslide
Mingechevir reserv.
Mingechevir
Lachin
Lake Van
Mudflow
Yerevan
Ara
Euphrates
Samur
Io
Lake Sevan
s
Armavir
an
SEA
Sheki
ARMENIA d
TURKEY
i
d
Alaverdi Debe Gyumri Vanadzor
Kura
Hraz
Çoru h
an
Rustavi
CASPIAN
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
o (Ch
lak
Rioni
Rion
i) kh ro
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
n g uri
Sukhumi
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi (Stepanakert) as
Ar
Neftchala
Meghri
IRAN
0
100 km
IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuR AL DISASTERS There are major climate change impacts taking place in the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change projection models predict even more increase of extreme weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven
44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dramatic consequences. As a result, the probability of devastating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches, river floods, flash floods and mudflows, causing human casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the near future (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
Flooding and avalanche high risk zones in the South Caucasus
Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
S
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Rion
i
Al
az
Kur G E O R G I A Gori a Adjara Tbilisi
Telavi
a
d Hraz
an
Ara
Flood
ri
Avalanche
Mingechevir reserv.
AZERBAIJAN
NagornoKarabakh Lachin
Lake Van
Goris AZ Kapan Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Meghri
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010); SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb.
Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea, abundance of water resources, larger amount of annual and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The damage caused by the flooding during the last three years was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and intensity of avalanches has been detected since the last decades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake Sevan
Yerevan
s
Armavir Euphrates
Samur
Io
Ganja
ARMENIA
Kars
SEA
Sheki
Alaverdi Deb Gyumri Vanadzor
i) kh ro
TURKEY
i
ed
Kura
CASPIAN
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
an
Rustavi Kur
Çoru h
k ula
Rioni
Akhaltsikhe
o (Ch
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas n g uri
Sukhumi
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi (Stepanakert) as
Ar
Neftchala
0
100 km
displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About 53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall, economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD 330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010).
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Glacier Melting
1972
2002
In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002. Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
G lacier melti n g i n t h e Cau cas u s Glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatologists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sealevel rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org) says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50% during the last century and will decrease more severely in the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water resources for local communities, and play a significant role in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more important in calculating overall impact.   Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the changes in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evidence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information concerning the latter stages is limited. However those studies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus (Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend 46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers
GEORGIA
Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone
for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes, Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin (Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indicates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record.
In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the South slope of the central Caucasus — the Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971 ( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the imageis a combination of CORONA imagery dating from 1971, a SPOT image of 2007 and a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008.
Glaciers melting in south part of the Central Caucasus N
Laboda Glacier
Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011).
Zopkhito Glacier
GEORGIA Glacier boundary in 2009 Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971
Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011).
In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring glaciers in the central Caucasus between 1985 ( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier ( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat rates in the Caucasus
500 m
0
Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus N
RUSSIAN FEDERATION Kashkatash Glacier
Source : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
Shkhelda Glacier
Bashkara Glacier
Bzhedukh Glacier
Glacier line Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused their study also on the central part of the Greater Caucasus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito glacier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (southern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in-
in 1985
in 2000
Djankuat Glacier
0
1 km
tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experienced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011). Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47
Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia Terek
Abkhazia
Lechkhumi
ek
I nguri
r Te
Zemo Svaneti
Sukhumi
i
on Ri
SEA
Samegrelo
Poti
Rion
i
Imereti
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Batumi
Kura
Samtskhe
Landslide area
Drought area
Mudflow area
Hystoricalgeographycal border
Tbilisi
Javakheti
Red, white and sparkling wines
Ala
Kakheti
Kvemo Kartli
ARMENIA
Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001.
Rustavi
GEORGIA
za
ni
Ku
ra
i
Flooding area
Telavi
Ior
Winegrowing area (existing and potential)
Tusheti
Pshavi
Gori
Tori
Akhaltsikhe
TURKEY
Mtiuleti
Khevsureti
Shida Kartli
Guria Achara
lak
Su
Khevi
Racha
BLACK
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
Kvemo Svaneti
ed
b De
0
Mingechevir reserv.
50 km
AZERBAIJAN
Impact of Climate Change on Winegrowing Zones of Georgia Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia. Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cultivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine production more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, 2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine production, which was very popular among the former Soviet states and always highly prized. Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder48 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, mineral-rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of endemic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and specific weather extremes caused by global climate change that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grapegrowing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably.
Grape Varieties
Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009 Percent of agriculture land Armenia
0.8%
0.3%
1.2%
Area thousand ha
Azerbaijan Georgia
16.5
15
37.4
Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Year Books, 2010.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 49
Number of tourists in the Upper Svaneti in 2009–2011 2011
26,000 (prognosed)
2010
13,000
2009
6,200
Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011)
Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011 Million 3 2 1 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency.
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
THE Impact of Climate Change on GEORGIA’S Tourist Sector: Upper Svaneti The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popular tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant historical monuments and its exceptional cultural heritage are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity. Access to this region has never been easy though, due to its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to 50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia (the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navigation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian airports, as well as some international destinations. The number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland
e
r
G
Potential impact of climate change in the a Upper Svaneti touristic zone t
GEORGIA
Hatsvali
Shkhelda 4,368 m
Tita
Naki
Mazeri Iskari
Mestia
Ienashi
ra lkh
ila
La
Khaishi
S
r
a
n
ist i al
sk Avalanche hazard Very strong Strong
n
r
a
Dolra
g
Mananauri
e
Khe
led
ula
Tsanashi
n
Tskh e
Tsana
nists
kali
Mele
Lentekhi Motor road Dirt road
Glaciers
Svaneti priority conservation area
Airport
(WWF-Caucasus proposal)
resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been restored. However, an increased number of tourists will also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-
s
Shkhara 5,068 m uri Ing
e
Forest area
Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps.
Gistola 4,853 m
Chazhashi
g
Landslide hazard
Moderate
UNESCO World Heritage Site
Tvibi
ra
i
ob Kh
s
i
u kad
g
i
Adishi
Iprari
Las
a
leti
Kas
E
r
t
Tetnuldi 4,852 m
Zhabeshi
Laila 4008 m
e
v
Tsaneri
Tsaneri
Ieli
ri
Khudoni reserv. (projected)
Lakhiri Tsvirmi
Mu
Ingu
a
la
u
In
Ushba 4,710 m
lra
Do
i
r gu
Ipari
c
Lekhzir
s
Ushba
u
tiac M es ha
ns
Ne
Nakra
lra
kra
a
C
Do
Historical monument Ski resort
0
10 km
systems in coming years. This will become an even more sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns, with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation decrease, are cause for serious concerns. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51
Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus Ter e
Nalchik
k
Magas Grozny
sk he n
BLACK Poti
SEA
s ist
k
T
Rion
lak
Su
Lentekhi i Rion Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
RUSSIAN F E D E R AT I O N
i
GEORGIA
Gori
Kur
Telavi
a
Adjara
Batumi
Rustavi
TURKEY Alaverdi
Kura
Gyumri Kars Aras
az
Sheki
Mingechevir
NagornoKarabakh
Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise
Lachin
Glaciers melting
Nakhchivan
AZ
Depopulation due to increase natural disasters Spread of malaria Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010 and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe.
52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Lake Van
AZE
Lake Sevan
Yerevan
Land degradation and desertification
Mingechevir reserv.
Ganja
an
Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes
Depletion of water resources
Samur
i
ra
Vanadzor
ARMENIA
an
Ku
ed
b De
Hra zd
) hi
Al
Iori
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
k oro Ch ( ruh Ço
Makhach
Vladikavkaz
a li
Abkhazia
Ingur i
Sukhumi
Goris
Khankendi (Stepanakert)
Kapan
as
Ar
Nakhchivan Meghri
IRAN
Index of vulnerability to climate change* Tajikistan Albania Kyrgystan
Index of vulnerability to climate change* ARMENIA
Makhachkala
GEORGIA
Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Albania AZERBAIJAN Kyrgystan Turkmenistan
ARMENIA Turkey
CASPIAN
IAN AT I O N
Moldova GEORGIA
SEA
Serbia Uzbekistan Macedonia (F.Y.R.) AZERBAIJAN Turkmenistan Russia Turkey Bulgaria Moldova Bosnia
Samur
Serbia Kazakhstan Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Romania
Sheki
Russia Ukraine Bulgaria Belarus
Mingechevir reserv.
Bosnia Croatia
Sumgayit
AZERBAIJAN
Kazakhstan Poland Romania Latvia Ukraine
Baku
Belarus
Hungary
SlovakiaCroatia
Sensitivity to climate change
Poland Estonia
Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity
Kura
kendi anakert)
Lithuania
Latvia Czech Republic Lithuania Slovenia
Neftchala
10
as
8
6
4
2
0
Sensitivity to climate change Increasing and exposure Exposuresensitivity to impacts
Ar
N 0
100 km
Hungary -2 -4 -6 Slovakia
Adaptation capacity Estonia
Adaptive *Vulnerability tocapacity climatein change is a2009. combination i) exposure Czechof: Republic Source: Climate Change Central Asia, to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change relaSlovenia tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate change, e.g. renewable water resources, agriculture 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to reIncreasing sensitivity exposure Adaptation capacity spond to weather shocksand and variability. Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus Water resources land and water Land contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, salinization of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, depletion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus) lack of safe and good quality of drinking water.
Food security Biodiversity Social problems
Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health
FLOODS AND NATUR AL DISASTERS Increased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley, Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods, avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands. Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary problems, deterioration of social conditions
Agriculture Land degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus), salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Caspian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production, degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones. Impact on livelihood and food security
54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
FORESTS, FAUNA AND FLORA Displacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires, degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity. Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture, human health
sea and coastal Sea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diversity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus). Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport and other infrastructure, tourism
PEOPLE AND WELLBEING Depopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases. Threat to human life, health and social conditions
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus 55
References Main background documents:
Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP.
First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network.
Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle. J. Hydrol.,282(1–4), 164–176. Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris.
Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change (2000). National Climate Research Centre.
Georgian National Tourism Agency.
Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic.
Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi.
Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations framework convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research Centre.
GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune: www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31
GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion.
Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia. Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011). ENVSEC, UNDP. Additional references: Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3. Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in transboundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011. Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA): www.azenerji.com. Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages similaires
Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June 2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia. Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011): www.commersant.ge Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N. and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431– 459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/ Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163.
Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424.
State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal.
Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008.
State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.
56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ足 mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia. Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, 足Russia/Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176. StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.
Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010: www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml; www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_ files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department: www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com
World Trade Press, 2007. 1:50,000 Topographic maps.
Institute for Atmospheric Physics: www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749
Online databases and information sources:
Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org
Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am
Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic: www.eco.gov.az
International Energy Agency: www.iea.org PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis
Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service: www.meteo.am National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge
Photos: Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums: www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html
National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan: www.azstat.org
Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007
National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V.
Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010: www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010
References 57
Abbreviations and Glossary APESA AZ BS CEO CORONA ECHAM
ENVSEC GCCP GCM GDP GEF GEL GENI GHG GRID HAD300 HADCM
HADCM3 HTC LULUCF MAGICC/ SCENGEN
Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists of Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Baltic Sea Caucasus Environment Outlook Series of American strategic reconnaissance satellites produced in 1959–1972 Global climate model for climate research. The model was given its name as a combination of its origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and the place of development of its parameterisation package, Hamburg. The Environment and Security Initiative Global Climate Change Processes Global Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Georgian Lari Global Energy Network Institute Greenhouse Gas Global Resource Information Database One of the global circulation model (GCMs) Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom) Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Hydrothermal Coefficient Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives global-mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output. SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses a scaling method to produce climate and climate change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid.
58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
MENR MEP Mil PP PRECIS SoE SPOT
TWh UN UNDP UNESCO UNFCCC USD WEAP WHO
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Ministry of Environment Protection Million Power Plant In French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the Hadley Centre’s regional climate State of the Environment In French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation — high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observation satellite system operating from space Terawatt hour United Nations United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United States Dollar Water Evaluation and Planning Model World Health Organization
Chemical Combinations CO₂ CH₄ N₂O
Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publication, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight: beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards, fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradition of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent. But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate
such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern elements, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there, however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique heritage. There may still be time. Abbreviation/Nina Joerchjan 59
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