The case of Eastern Europe
Belarus – Moldova – Ukraine / 21
Internal security challenges Internal problems and tensions are no less important than geopolitical challenges. Not only may they weaken young states and increase their vulnerability to external factors15, but they may also present security challenges in their own right. Not surprisingly such internal security factors feature prominently in the national security doctrines of all three countries. Many of the internal developments are common to other post-Soviet states. Though expanding, the region’s economies still lag behind most of their neighbours, with Moldova one of the poorest European countries in terms of per capita GDP. All the countries suffered economic decline in the 1990s followed by some recovery over the last five to ten years (see GNI figure). However, this recovery has gone hand-in-hand with painful economic restructuring. In the past Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova were intricately linked to the rest of the Soviet economy. The collapse of the USSR and economic liberalisation opened up local markets, increased competition and severed some of the ties with former Soviet republics. However access to Western markets, especially in the EU, has been very limited and often conditional on political or further economic reform. Moreover the new patterns of trade with Europe have increasingly consisted of exports of raw materials in exchange for imports of manufactured goods. Finally it has proven difficult to restructure the old heavy industry which was often the mainstay of the Soviet-era economy.
Gross National Income (GNI) GNI per capita in current US dollars
8,000
7,000
Ukraine
6,000
5,000
Belarus
4,000
3,000
Moldova
2,000
1,000 2005 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 UNEP/GRID-Arendal, May 2007. Note: Purchasing Power Parity method. Source: World Bank. Development Indicators database (www.worldbank.org).