Climate Change in Central Asia A visual synthesis based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports This is a Zoï environment publication produced in close cooperation with the Governments of Switzerland, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The project has been supported by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). Printed on 100% recycled paper and climate neutrally at Imprimerie Nouvelle Gonnet, F-01303 Belley, France © zoï environment network 2009
This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a commercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperating partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.
2
Photos on the cover page: The Pamir mountains, Tajikistan The Amu Darya river delta, Uzbekistan
Concept and Photography Viktor Novikov, Otto Simonett Maps and Graphics Matthias Beilstein, Emmanuelle Bournay, Viktor Novikov Text and interviews Christiane Berthiaume, Alex Kirby Design and Layout Carolyne Daniel Contributors and Interviewees Luigi De Martino, Nickolai Denisov, Ilhom Rajabov, Harry Forster, Batyr Baliev, Abdulhamid Kayumov, Nailya Mustaeva, Zuhra Abaikhanova, Valery Kuzmichenok, Sergey Myagkov, Sergey Erokhin, Kanybek Isabaev, Lydia Reznikova, Mahmad Safarov, Neimatullo Safarov, Begmurod Makhmadaliev, Christina Stuhlberger.
Contents
6
16
20
32
Central Asia at a Glance
Water Towers
Regional Climate Change
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Mitigation
54
Impacts of Climate 足Change and Adaptation 3
Foreword Central Asia is facing complex environmental challenges, in particular in the areas of water, energy, agriculture and industry. The challenges are getting bigger in the context of climate change. There is a lot of scientific information about the effects of climate change for different sectors. However, there is a lack of information which is easily accessible and directly applicable. This booklet – produced by Zoï Environment Network in close cooperation with the countries – attempts to provide a synthesis of what climate change may mean for Central Asia. It builds upon the latest (Second) series of the official national communications on climate change by the Central Asian states under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The booklet is written in a highly visual format, understandable for decision makers and also useful for educational purposes. Switzerland has a long-standing engagement in Central Asia. This cooperation is characterized by an early focus on environmental issues, thereby contributing 4
to strengthening environmental monitoring systems, to address issues of water management, and to approach mountain development in an integrated manner. Switzerland and the Central Asian republics are members of the same constituency in the Global Environment Facility: another reason to cultivate good relations and find a common approach to solve environmental problems. Switzerland has supported the production of this publication, giving another strong message that climate change is real and needs to be addressed immediately, also in Central Asia. Bern / Geneva
8 December 2009
Thomas Kolly Head, International Affairs Division Swiss Federal Office for the Environment Otto Simonett Director Zoï Environment Network
Climate change in Central Asia: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Air temperature 1) Precipitation and snow 1) Climate aridisation and desertification Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards 2) Melting ice and permafrost 1) Water resources availability in the future 3) Health 4) 1) Greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2005 2) Greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2005 Policy instruments, actions and awareness Climate observation and weather services 2) increase, enhancement 1)
1950-2005
2)
1990-2009
decrease, reduction 3)
2050-2100
4)
mixed trends
infectious and vector-born diseases, heat stress
Sources: Second National Communications of Kazakhstan, 2009; Kyrgyzstan, 2009; Tajikistan, 2008; Uzbekistan, 2008; Technical Needs Assessment and the Initial Communication of Turkmenistan
5
Cultivated lands, the Tajik-Afghan border 6
Central Asia at a Glance
7
Saransk
Chistopol
Ulyanovsk Penza
Tolyatti
Chelyabinsk
R U S S I A
Samara Buzuluk Kumertau
Volga
Saratov
Ufa
Magnitogorsk
Kostanay
Stepnogorsk
Pavlodar
Atbasar s Irty
Orsk
h
Astana
Aktobe
Ural
Volgograd
Kokshetau
Rudniy
Orenburg Oral
Omsk
Petropavlovsk
Arkalyk
K A Z A K H S T A N Atyrau
Astrakhan
a S e
Dashoguz
TURKMENISTAN
Balkanabat
Rasht Karaj Hamadan Arak
8
Sari
Tehran
Gorgan
Gonbad-e Kavus Bojnurd
Ashgabat
Uchkuduk
Shymkent
Tashkent
U Z B E K I S T A N
Navoiy Jizakh Bukhara Samarkand Turkmenabat Karshi
Mary
I R A N
Mashad
Kara-Balta
Taraz
Bishkek Balykchy
Toktogul
Alm
Ysik
KYRGYZSTA Naryn
Jalalabad Angren Osh Kokand Ferghana Khujand
Kash
TAJIKISTAN Dushanbe
Termiz Qurghonteppa Kunduz
Neyshabur Qom
Urganch a Dary Amu
Turkmenbashi
Kentau Zhanatas
Turkestan
Nukus
Baku
Chu
Sy
Zhanaozen
Mingachevir
Ili
Kyzylorda a ary rD
Aktau
Lake Balkhash Taldykorgan
Baikonur
Derbent
Ali Bayramli
Balkhash
Aral
i a n C a s p
Makhachkala
Ay
Zhezkazgan
Aral Sea
Seme
Temirtau Karaganda
Mazar-e Sharif
AFGHANISTAN
Khorug Gilgit
PAKISTAN Mingora
Novosibirsk Novokuznetsk Barnaul Biysk
Ob
Oskemen
ey
Zyryanovsk Lake Zaysan
yagoz Tacheng Karamay Kuytun Shihezi Yining
When Central Asia is called to mind, it raises romantic memories of the Silk Road with its seas (the Caspian and the Aral), vast barren lands (Kara-Kum, Kyzyl-Kum), limitless Kazakh steppes, gorgeous ice-covered mountains of Tien Shan, Pamir, Alai and Atlay, vital rivers (Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Ural, Irtysh, Ili). But there is no romance any more in a region with major environmental problems and the threat of climate change facing the population of the five nations of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) growing at a rate of 2% on average every year. There are now more than 60 million people, most of them young and living along the main rivers or around oases, as used to be the case in the days of the Silk Road. Nestling between the Russian Federation, Iran, Afghanistan and China, Central Asia was a unified area under the Soviet Union with a common heritage in terms of language, culture, education and infrastructure, and with a united energy, water, agricultural and industrial system. After gaining independence in 1991, it was left with a legacy that still has negative impacts on the engines of the economy: agriculture and energy. The exploitation of natural resources in the name of “progress” without concern to the environment has had catastrophic consequences. The drying up of the Aral Sea is probably the best known case. As a result the irrigated agriculture is inefficient, the quality and amount of land and water resources are declining, the reforms are too slow, and unemployment is rising.
maty
Tup k-Kol
Kuqa
N
Aksu
rim Ta
He
Elevation in metres
hgar
C H I N A Hotan
0
100
200
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 500 200
But those are not the only challenges facing the region. Toxic waste from mining and heavy industries and deposits of radioactive waste in disaster-prone areas endanger the health of millions of people. Extraction of hydrocarbons is booming in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Hydropower development projects are being implemented at full speed in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, competition for energy sources is also straining the relations between the states of the region. The situation is difficult and will deteriorate further with a changing climate.
300 km
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment
9
Population in Central Asia Penza
Ufa
Chelyabinsk
Omsk
Petropavlovsk
R U S S I A
Tolyatti
Samara
Buzuluk Kumertau
Volga
Saratov
Kostanay
Magnitogorsk
Kokshetau Stepnogorsk
Rudniy
Orenburg
Pavlodar
Atbasar
Oral
sh Irty
Orsk
Astana Aktobe
Ural
Volgograd
Arkalyk
K
A
Z
A
Atyrau
Astrakhan
Temirtau Karaganda
K
H
S
T
A
Zhezkazgan
N
Ay
Balkhash
Aral Lake Balkhash
a n p i C a s
Baikonur
Aktau
Chu
Sy r
Zhanaozen
Kentau
Derbent
Nukus
S e
Kara-BogazGol
Baku
Taraz
Uchkuduk
Shymkent
Urganch
Tashkent
Kara-Balta
Bishkek Balykchy
Toktogul
KYRGYZSTAN Naryn
Angren Namangan
Jalal-Abad
Kokand
Osh
a
Ali Bayramli
Dashoguz
Almaty
Zhanatas
Turkestan
Mingachevir
T
Kyzylorda rya Da
Makhachkala
Ili
Aral Sea
a Dary Amu
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenbashi
Balkanabat
U Z B E K I S T A N Navoiy
Jizakh
Bukhara
Ferghana
Kashgar
Khujand
Samarkand Turkmenabat Rasht
Gonbad-e Kavus Sari Karaj
Hamadan Arak
10
Tehran
I
R
Dushanbe Mary
Termiz
Qurghonteppa
Khorug
Kunduz Neyshabur
Qom
Ashgabat
Bojnurd
Gorgan
TAJIKISTAN
Karshi
A
N
Mashad
Gilgit
Mazar-e Sharif
PAKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN Mingora
Ys
1
Novosibirsk
5
50
Novokuznetsk Ob
Population density (inhabitants per km²)
Barnaul 2 Millions
Biysk
1 Million 500 000 100 000
Semey
Population growth in Central Asia Million 30
Uzbekistan 25 20 Kazakhstan
15
Oskemen Zyryanovsk
Population in urban centre Sources: LandScan Global Population Database. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory; World Gazetteer
Lake Zaysan
yagoz
10
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
5 Turkmenistan
0 1991 Tacheng
1995
2000
2005
Source: World Bank development indicators
Karamay
Kuytun
Taldykorgan
Shihezi
Ghulja
Tup sik-Kol
Kuqa Aksu
im Tar
He
C H I N A Hotan
0
100
200
300
400 km
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, December 2009
11
Climate change in Central Asia Enhanced global greenhouse effect
Reflection and absorbtion of solar radiation
Global emissions of greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O Change in global climate phenomena such as El Niño
Increased evapotranspiration and water loss
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols
Increased yields
Increased intensity of precipitation
Sea-ice reduction
Permafrost melt
Dust storms
Mountain ranges and deserts in Central Asia Kazakh steppes
Altai
K A Z A K H S T A N Moyunkum Tien-Shan Kyzylkum
KYRGYZSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
Kopet Dag
I R A N Areas above 2000 m
Alai TAJIKISTAN Pamir
Hindu Kush AFGHANISTAN Mountain systems
CHINA
Karakorum PAKISTAN Himalaya INDIA Deserts
Science is warning us. Without mitigation of the humaninduced causes of climate warming, the implications for the global ecosystem and for humanity could be serious. 12
Severe droughts
Desertification
Floods
TURKMENISTAN Karakum
Glacier melt
Reduced water flow
Biodiversity loss
Global warming may reach from 3° to 6° Celsius by the second half of the century. But a mere 2°Celsius rise in temperature could have serious consequences for human life. This would be the case for Central Asia. Climate change scenarios for Central Asia suggest a 1° to 3°C increase in temperature by 2030-50. But it could be even higher. If emissions are unmitigated and greenhouse gas continues to accumulate, temperatures could exceed today’s by 3° to 6°C by the end of the century. At the same time climate change is projected to cause more precipitation in northern of Central Asia and less in the south. What exactly will the local impact be and when will these weather changes occur, especially in the mountains? This is still unknown.
Temperature fluctuation in the Tien Shan
Temperature fluctuation in the Tien Shan
Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan (2 500 metres)
Southern Inylchek Glacier, Kyrgyzstan (5 200 metres)
Reconstructed air temperature (C°) 3 Trend during 1950-2000 with pronounced human impact on the climate system
Reconstructed air temperature (C°) from ice-core data -10 Trend during 1950-2000 with pronounced human impact on the climate system
2
-11
1
-12
0
-13
-1
-14
-15
-2 1700
1800
1900
1700
2000
1800
1900
2000
Source: Aizen, 2008
Sources: Solomina,1999; Marchenko and Romanovsky, 2009
Researchers have reconstructed the climatic conditions of the past 300 years, showing that climate has warmed rapidly especially in recent decades. They have come to this conclusion after conducting a survey of bio-indicators in the Tien Shan Mountains
– where scientists analysed tree-rings of junipers, pines and other species, soil wedges, lichens and lake sediments – and on the Kyrgyz high-altitude glaciers where ice core samples were collected at 5 200m.
Temperature rise in the mountains Annual average air temperature, oC -5
Annual average air temperature, oC -4.5
TIEN SHAN
PAMIR
-6
-5.5
-7
-6.5
-8
-7.5 Tien Shan weather station, 3700 m
HISSAR-ALAI 6
no data
5
4 Fedchenko weather station, 4169 m
Dekhavz weather station, 2561 m
-8.5
-9 1950
Annual average air temperature, oC 7
1970
1990
2010
2030
1950
3 1970
1990
2010
2030
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Sources: Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009; Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
13
Trend in global average surface temperature Differences in temperature, °C from 1961-1990 mean value
Estimated actual global mean temperature, °C
0.6
14.6
0.4
14.4
0.2
14.2
0
14.0
-0.2
13.8
-0.4
13.6 2007
-0.6 1880
13.4 1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2008
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index
Global climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are linked to the climatic conditions and trends prevailing in Central Asia. For example, strong El Niño events seem to enhance the risk of droughts in the southern part and around the Caspian Sea while a strong negative NAO causes more precipitation in southern parts of Europe, the Mediterranean basin and Central Asia.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index
NAO index (December - March) 6
ENSO index 3
4
2
2
1
0
0
-2
-1
-4
-2
-6 1950
-3 1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
14
Scientific observations have pointed to increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, rising global sea levels, and depletion of snow and ice reserves. Warming does not only concern the Earth’s surface but also its atmosphere and the first few hundred metres of the oceans nearest the surface. Although temperature increase is widespread across the world (global average growth was 0.8°C from 1880 to 2008), it is most apparent in the northern polar regions. It is widely accepted that global warming, especially since the mid-20th century, can be attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect, caused by emissions from human activities which are still increasing.
2000
2009
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: NOAA http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
1990
2000
2009
Global climate warming under A1B emission scenario 2020-2030
Temp rise C째 +0.5 +1 +1.5 +2 +2.5 +3 +3.5 +4
2090-2100
+4.5 +5 +5.5 +6 +6.5 +7
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2008
15
Karakul Lake, Tajikistan 16
Regional Climate Change
17
Change in surface temperature, 1951-2001 RUSSIA
Heat stress in Uzbekistan
Astana
Days with strong thermal discomfort for urban dwellers 40
KAZAKHSTAN
Syrdarya town 30
CHINA Bishkek
UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN Ashgabat
Tashkent KYRGYZSTAN Temp. change C° per decade Dushanbe
TAJIKISTAN
0.1 0.2 0.4
IRAN
20 10 0 1950
Sources: U.K. Climate Research Unit (data synthesis is available at: www.climatewizard.org), compilation of information from the Second (and the First) National Communications
18
1990
2000 2005
• In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan the temperature has increased by 0.8-1.3°C over the past 100 years with increasing rates since the 1950s at 0.3°C per decade.
Uzbekistan
• In the small mountainous republics of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, temperatures have increased by 0.3-1.2°C, depending on the location of the observation site.
10 8
Kazakhstan
Almost everywhere in the region, climate warming in the winter months is more pronounced than in other seasons. It accounts for the majority of the temperature increase.
6 Tajikistan 4 Kyrgyzstan 2 0 1960
1970
1980
1990
2001
Source: U.K. Climate Research Unit data synthesis at: www.climatewizard.org
18
1980
For instance: • In Turkmenistan the temperature has increased by 0.6-0.8°C over the past 50-70 years.
Turkmenistan
12
1951
1970
It increased by 0.65°C between two thirty-year climate reference periods (1942-1972 ad 1973-2003).
Country-averaged annual air temperature (C°)
14
1960
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
Weather records clearly confirm that the surface temperature is rising in Central Asia.
Surface temperature trends
16
Tashkent city
Since the 1950s the number of days with temperature above 40°C has been increasing in the southern densely populated areas of Central Asia. This obviously has a negative impact on agriculture and rural and urban populations affected by heat wave discomfort.
Change in precipitation, 1951-2001
Intense precipitation in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
RUSSIA
Astana
Days with precipitation exceeding 15 mm a day 16
KAZAKHSTAN 12
CHINA Bishkek
UZBEKISTAN
8
TURKMENISTAN
4
Ashgabat
IRAN
0 1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2006
Tashkent KYRGYZSTAN Rainfall change mm per decade Dushanbe 2 TAJIKISTAN 1 0 -1 -2
Sources: U.K. Climate Research Unit (data synthesis is available at: www.climatewizard.org), compilation of information from the Second (and First) National Communications
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
Precipitation variability and trends Country-averaged annual precipitation, mm
• The northern and western parts of Central Asia, such as the semi-desert lowlands of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, have experienced an increase in precipitation (although small in absolute terms).
800
• Winter precipitation has particularly increased in Kazakhstan.
700
• A slight increase in precipitation has also occurred in the mountains of Uzbekistan, northern parts of Kyrgyzstan and central Tajikistan (the western Pamir and Turkestan-Alay).
600 Tajikistan
500 400
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan
300 200
• A negative change in precipitation was observed in the southern and eastern parts of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan (notably in the eastern Pamir), and in the central Tien Shan of Kyrgyzstan. In many instances, rainfall intensity has increased. • Rising air temperatures impact on climate aridity which is expected to increase, especially in the lowlands. Higher surface temperatures result in increased evaporation and reduced soil moisture content, especially during the dry summer months, thereby amplifying the risk of droughts.
Uzbekistan Turkmenistan
100 0 1951
1960
1970
1980
1990
2001
Source: U.K. Climate Research Unit data synthesis at: www.climatewizard.org
19
Alai 20 Valley, Kyrgyzstan
Water Towers
21
200
lk
300 km
Ba
100
sh
e
0
ha
Glaciers of Central Asia Lak
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, December 2009
Taldykorgan
Glaciers mentioned in the report Glacial lakes and GLOF risk areas Ghulja
Ili
Qyzylorda
Ch
u
K
A
Z
A
K
H
S
T
A
N
Kapchagay Lake Almaty
Sy
Ts. Tyuyksu
a ary rD
Turkestan Taraz
South Inylchek 7439 Kara-Batkak Jengish (Pobeda) Peak Akshirak massif Petrov Aksu
Bishkek
Ysyk-Kol
Shymkent
K Y R G Y Z S T A N
5982 Dankova Peak
Tashkent Kokand Jizzakh
Navoiy
Samarkand
5509 Raigorodsky Piramida Peak Zeravshan
TAJIKISTAN
Karshi
Osh
Ferghana Abramov
Kashgar
He
Khujand
7134 Lenin Peak
Fedchenko 7495 Ismoil Somoni Peak
C
H
I
N
A
Yarka nt
UZBEKISTAN
n He Hota
Namangan
7719 Kongur Shan
Dushanbe Hotan
Termiz Amu Darya Mazar-e Sharif
A F G H A N I S T A N 22
PAKISTAN
Disthegil Sar 7885 7788 Rakaposhi
8611 K2
The melt paths The gorgeous mountains of Central Asia with their narrow white-water river canyons, walnut forests, glaciers and snow leopards make a huge impression on the traveller going along the Silk Road. The scenery is extraordinary. But will it last? Glaciers cover 4% of Kyrgyzstan and 6% of Tajikistan. They are also present in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan covering an area of 12,000-14,000 km2 within Central Asia. Frozen water reserves contained in the glaciers is about 1,000 km3 – the equivalent of 10 years of water flowing down the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya.
Glacier mass balance Metres of water equivalent 0 GLOBAL -5 -10 -15
0
Melt water from snow, glacier and permafrost supplies around 80% of the total river runoff in Central Asia. Glaciers are crucial to the agricultural economy of the region. They produce water in the hottest and driest period of the year in summer and compensate for low precipitation. But nowadays, the traveller on the Silk Road may be struck by a disturbing phenomenon. Glaciers are melting! Some of the small ones (smaller than 0.5 km2) have totally melted. The changing climate of the last 100 years, especially since the 1950s, has had a negative impact on the glaciers, snow covers and permafrost.
Today’s rate of glacier loss in Central Asia is 0.2-1% per year.
Glacier volume change in Tajikistan
in Kyrgyzstan
Volume, km3 700
600
600
500
500
400
400
-10 -15 -20 0
Abramov (KYR)
-5
-15 -20 Igly (KAZ) 0 -5 -10 -15 0
300
300
?
200
50 years ago
Today
Next 50 years
Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
Kara-Batkak (KYR)
-5 200
?
100
100 0
-5
-10
Glacier volume change
Volume, km 700
3
Ts. Tuyuksu (KAZ)
0
50 years ago
Today
Next 50 years
Source: Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
-10 -15 -20 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
2005
Source: UNEP/WGMS, 2008
23
Fedchenko glacier retreat Central Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan
Glacier terminus
1933
1976
2006
Photo: V. Novikov
In the last 50-60 years,between 14% to 30% of the Tien Shan and Pamir glaciers have melted. This trend is worrying and comparable with ice reduction in the European Alps and the Caucasus. The degradation – even slowly – of the largest glacier of Central Asia, the Fedchenko in the central Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, and another ice giant the Inylchek glacier in eastern Kyrgyzstan provide vivid evidence of the warmer climate in the region. The Fedchenko glacier, which exceeds 70 km in length and 2 km in width, and has an ice thickness of 1 km, shrank by 1 km in length during the 20th century. 24
lmost all of its right hand tributaries have separated A from the main glacier body and the lower part of the glacier is cracked and covered with numerous lakes. Other disturbing examples and figures: The glaciers of the Akshirak massif (containing over 170 glaciers and covering an area of 300 km2) in central Kyrgyzstan, where the country’s main gold mine, Kumtor, is located, shrank by 4% from 1943 to 1977, and by 9% from 1977 to 2003. The ice volume in the Akshirak massif reduced by 10 km3 and the glaciers’ surfaces thinned substantially.
The Akshirak massif, Kyrgyzstan
0
5
10 km
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment, December 2009
PETROV glacier and lake
Glacier surface change, metres 0 -20 -40 -60
Glacier area reduction 1943 1977
-80 -100 -120 -140 Source: Aizen et al., 2006
25
Abramov glacier melting due to climate warming (KYRGYZSTAN)
2008 1971
Abramov glacier 0.5 km
Sources: Uzhydromet; Uzbekistan's Initial National Communication, 1999
Petrov glacier (69 km2) in the north Akshirak massif retreated by 1.8 km between 1957 and 2007. A large glacial lake has formed on top of its terminal moraine and is spreading steadily. If its dam and level stability are not addressed, there could be an outbreak of water with floods threatening villages and infrastructure, including tailing ponds containing cyanide. By 2006, the surface of this glacial lake had exceeded 3.8 km2 with water volume 60 million m3.
26
Background image is based on the digital elevation model adapted from Google Earth
The well-known Abramov glacier (WGMC reference), located in the Alay range in southern Kyrgyzstan on the border with Tajikistan, shrank by at least 500 m and lost 20% of its ice mass since the 1970s.
Zeravshan glacier melting due to climate warming (TAJIKISTAN)
2009 1927
1991 2.5 km
Source: Tajikhydromet
Zeravshan glacier – a source of the Zarafshan river which provides water for 0.5 million ha of irrigated, densely populated ancient oases at Pandjikent, Samarkand and Bukhara – retreated by 2.5 km between 1927 and 2009. Intense melting during 19912009 contributed to almost halving (1.2 km) the length of the glacier.
Background image is based on the digital elevation model adapted from Google Earth
In Kazakhstan, the surface and the ice volume of the Tsentralny Tyuyksu glacier (WGMC reference) in the Zailiysky Alatau range of the Tien Shan Mountains shrank by more than 30% in the past 50 years, receded by 1 km and lost more than 40 million m3 of ice.
27
Snow reserves
Extent of winter ice cover
in the Pskem river basin, Uzbekistan
in the northern Caspian Sea Area, km2 90 000
Volume, million m3 4 000
80 000 3 000 70 000
60 000 2 000 50 000
40 000
1 000
30 000
20 000
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2007
Sources: Rodionov, 1998; Kouraev, 2008
Sarez Lake level fluctuation
Climate factors and Sarez Lake level
Water level, metres above sea level 3 265
m 3 264
3 260
3 262
Monthly fluctuations
3 260
3 255 3 250
3 258 Lake shape in 2008
3 245
3 256 0
10 km
3 254
3 240 1950
1960
1970
Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
28
1980
1990
2000
2010
11 12 13 14 15 16 Average summer air temperature (°C)
Flood hazards
Climate change is contributing to the risk of floods and mudflows in Central Asia. There has been a series of glacial outburst floods in the mountains of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, making it even more urgent to monitor these hazards. With glaciers melting, glacial lakes appear every summer in the mountains. Some of them grow significantly and, if contained by unstable moraines, they occasionally burst releasing large amounts of water in destructive flashfloods, sometimes with serious impacts on life and property. Annually, more than 200 potentially risky glacial lakes appear in the mountainous regions above Almaty and Bishkek cities, around Issyk-Kul Lake and the densely populated Ferghana Valley, and in the narrow Pamir and Hissar-Alai valleys. Experts suggest that this number is likely to grow with climate change. There have already been deadly floods in the past decade, including the Shahimardan (Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, 1998), Dasht (Tajikistan, 2002) and Issyk-Kul (2008). Some large mountain lakes, such as Sarez Lake in Tajikistan which formed in 1911 as the result of a rock slide in the central Pamir mountains, represent a serious risk. Situated at an altitude of 3,000 metres, the lake is over 60 km long, almost 500 metres deep and contains 17 km3 of water. If there were a new rockslide into the lake there are fears that a high wave could form, and depending on its volume, the season and the location of the slide, this could cause a destructive flood. In spite of declining precipitation, the water level in the lake is increasing, which is likely due to intensified glacier and permafrost melt caused by climate warming.
Not only are glaciers melting more than before, but they are doing so earlier in the year, over a longer period lasting till late autumn. The snow covering the top of the mountains – so impressive when seen from the Silk Road – is also slowly disappearing. Yet it plays a critical role in the water cycle and existence of the glaciers. Over the past 20 years, the seasonal snow-covered area of the Tien Shan mountains has decreased by as much as 15%. In summer, rain instead of snow appears more often in high mountain regions, further decreasing the long-term water storage capacities of high-altitude glaciers. The high-altitude areas of Central Asia also provide a favourable environment for permafrost. However, over the last three decades the permafrost’s temperature has increased by 0.3-0.6°C. This has released previously frozen water into the environment and contributed to increasing the rivers’ runoff.
Other lakes, such as Karakul, show similar increases in water level and surface area due to more intense glacier and permafrost melt and water inflow. 29
Caspian Sea
Caspian Sea level fluctuation
Fluctuating sea level is also a matter of concern for the Caspian Sea coastal communities, threatening major cities and towns, farmland, industrial activities and oilfields. In a scenario of a 2-3 meter rise, many coastal settlements could be flooded and agricultural land lost, not to mention possible flooding of oil wells and sites used for waste storage. All this could be further aggravated by storm surges with the highest impact in the northern flat coastal regions in Kazakhstan.
Water level, metres above sea level -25 Sea level observations at Baku and Mahachkala -26
The Caspian Sea level has been fluctuating for many years. It has fallen and risen, often rapidly, many times in the past. This is often blamed on water diversion and dams.
-27
-28
-29 1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Sources: Panin, 2007; Kozhavnikova, 2006; Abuzyrov, 2003
2000
In the last 10 years the Caspian level has been around minus 26.5 m and relatively stable. But this trend could be reversed as experts suggest that the increased rainfall observed since the 1970s in the northern parts of the Caspian basin will in the long run increase water flow in the Volga and Ural rivers and contribute to sea level rise. This could greatly affect the Atyrau province of Kazakhstan and Cheleken peninsula in Turkmenistan, where seawater has already submerged roads, a fragment of the town of Khazar and some industrial infrastructure. Climate warming does not only affect the level of the Caspian Sea, but also its winter ice cover. Satellite and meteorological data show that the extent and duration of sea ice, which covers approximately 70-75% of the northern Caspian Sea in winter, is declining. Because of milder winters with higher than normal temperatures, the extent of ice has been much smaller than usual during the last 10 years.
30
Environmental issues around the Cheleken peninsula, Turkmenistan LPG terminal (planned)
0
Trans-Caspian railway (planned) Kuly-Mayak Soymonova bay
10
20 km
Turkmenbashy Yangadzha Kenar Akdash Avaza National Tourism Zone to Baku
Freshwater pipeline (from Karakum Canal - Amu Darya)
Belek
Turkmenbashy gulf Gyzylsuw
Khazar Nature Reserve Ancient Amu Darya Freshwater lense (ancient Amu Darya)
Jebel Carbon factory Balka Zhdanova Khazar chemical factory (iodine)
+5 m
Balkanabat
Koturtepe Koturdepe
30-40 m
Khazar (Cheleken)
Cheleken Peninsula
Barsa Gulmes
Garagol Uzboy
CASPIAN SEA to Neka (IRAN)
+5 m
Kyzyl-Kum Gumdag
Map produced by UNEP/GRID-Arendal, August 2008
Important biodiversity:
Energy production and distribution:
Protected areas
Oil and gas fields
Environmental concerns: Radioactive waste
Major energy producing areas
Abandoned and flooded oil wells
Processing plants and stations
Historical pollution due to oil spills
Industries
Oil tanks
Soil degradation and scrap metal
Tanker terminals and ports
Oil and gas pipelines
Flood risk zone (+5 m sea level raise)
Habitats of endangered species Industrial infrastructure:
Source: ENVSEC Eastern Caspian assessment report 2008
31
Aluminium smelter, Tajikistan 32
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Mitigation
33
Energy-related CO2 emissions in 2007 Tonnes per person 20
UNITED STATES
18
Nowadays Central Asia contributes to the pollution of the global atmosphere with its production and consumption of coal, oil and gas, as well as its expansion of irrigated land and application of fertilizers.
CANADA
Globally, Central Asia has been a good pupil with its total (GHG) emissions declining from about 630 to 530 million tonnes from 1990 to 2005*. However the figures and trends differ from one country to the next.
16
KAZAKHSTAN 14
12
RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN GERMANY
10
UNITED KINGDOM NORWAY
8
6
IRAN
SWITZERLAND CHINA
UZBEKISTAN
World average
4 EGYPT
2
COSTA RICA INDIA
KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN KENYA NEPAL
0 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/
34
Gone are the days when merchants were travelling on horses, donkeys and camel caravans without polluting the air with CO2!
Energy-related CO2 emissions in 2005 in Central Asia
One square equals one Million tonnes of CO2 Soild fuel (coal) Liquid fuel (petroleum) Natural gas
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan hold the record for the lowest GHG pollution in the region (1-2 tonnes of CO2 per person), mostly because hydropower is their main energy source and they produce and consume only small amounts of fossil fuel. In addition, after the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, both countries experienced significant economic and industrial decline and an energy crisis. They have only recently started to recover.
* National and international data differs
In contrast, the energy-rich Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have not substantially reduced their GHG emissions. Among the three countries, those who release the highest CO2 per capita are Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (12-14 tonnes of CO2 per person) essentially because of massive fossil fuel extraction and transport. The lion’s share of electricity is generated by coal-powered plants in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan, which is the most populous state with a more diversified economy than the others, emits just above 4 tonnes of CO2 per person which is nearly equal to the world average.**
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Sources: Second National Communications of Kazakhstan 2009, Kyrgyzstan 2009, Tajikistan 2008, Uzbekistan 2008, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/
Energy production and consumption Million tonnes of oil equivalent 140 PRODUCTION 120
Million tonnes of oil equivalent 70 CONSUMPTION 60
100
50
80
40
Kazakhstan Uzbekistan
60
Uzbekistan
20
40 Turkmenistan
20
Kyrgyzstan
10 Tajikistan
Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
0
0 1991
Kazakhstan
30
1995
2000
2005
Source: World Bank development indicators
1991
1995
2000
2005
*estimates are based on the best available information combining national and international data ** total emissions in CO2-equivalent per capita are higher
35
Central Asia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 Million tonnes of CO2-equivalent* 200
ENERGY Kazakhstan
100
Uzbekistan * The graphics are based on the latest available national data. Data for Turkmenistan are for 1994. According to int. sources there was no significant change in Turkmenistan’s GHG emissions between 1994 and 2005.
10
Kyrgyzstan 1
Tajikistan
Sources: Second National Communications of Kazakhstan (2009), Kyrgyzstan (2009), Tajikistan (2008), Uzbekistan (2008), and the Initial National Communication of Turkmenistan (1999)
Turkmenistan
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
WASTE
AGRICULTURE
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
36
Turkmenistan
Tajikistan
Central Asia
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission and Fixation in 2005 Million tonnes * 200
CO2 emissions
Kazakhstan
CO2 fixation by forests
100
10 1
* The graphics are based on the latest available national data. Data for Turkmenistan are for 1994. According to int. sources there was no significant change in Turkmenistan’s GHG emissions between 1994 and 2005.
Sources: Second National Communications of Kazakhstan (2009), Kyrgyzstan (2009), Tajikistan (2008), Uzbekistan (2008), and the Initial National Communication of Turkmenistan (1999)
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
37
Kazakhstan
Syzran Saratov
a Volg
Engels
Tolyatti
Zlatoust
Chelyabinsk
R U S S I A
Troitsk
Atbasar
Irg
Mingachevir
Baku
Ali Bayramli Turkmenbashi
ysu Sar
Aral Sea
Ili
Kyzylorda
Dashoguz
TURKMENISTAN
Uchkuduk
Urganch
Karatau
Navoiy Samarkand Bukhara
• Total GHG emissions in 2005 were 26% below the 1990 level because the economy plummeted in the early 1990s, much as almost everywhere else in the former Soviet Union.
3000
Kara-Balta
Bishkek
2000
Almaty
Kokand
Ferghana Khujand
Osh
1000
Tup Ysik-Kol
Taraz Balykchy Toktogul K Y R G Y Z S T A N Shymkent Naryn Tashkent Namangan Jalal-Abad
U Z B E K I S T A N
• Its total emissions in 2005 amounted to 243 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalent (more than other four countries combined), including 197 million tonnes from energy production and use, 15 million tonnes from industry, 23 million tonnes from agriculture, and 8 million tonnes from waste.
Ghulja
Elevation in metres
Chu
Turkestan
Nukus
Karamay Lake Alakol
Lake Balkhash Taldykorgan Sy r
Zhanaozen
Balkanabat
Ayagoz
Balkhash
Baikonur
• The region’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
38
Lake Zaysan
Aral
Sumqayit
Zyryanovsk
Oskemen
Tacheng Zhezkazgan
Atyrau
a S e
Makhachkala Derbent
Semey
Temirtau Karaganda
K A Z A K H S T A N
iz
Rubtovsk
Pavlodar h
Aktau
Stepnogorsk
Astana g ay a-Tur Ka r Arkalyk
rya Da
a n C a s pi
Khasavyurt
Kokshetau
Rudniy
Akhtubinsk
Astrakhan
Petropavlovsk
Kostanay
Aktobe
ba Em
Novosibirsk Mezhdurechensk Novokuznetsk Barnaul Ob Biysk
Omsk
s Irty
Samara Magnitogorsk Buzuluk Sibay Kumertau Orenburg Oral Orsk Ural
Volgograd
Ufa
Ish im
Ulyanovsk
Penza
Almetyevsk
Tobol
Saransk
500 200
Aksu
C H I N A 0
150
100 300
450 km
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, December 2009
• But since 1998 economic development and emission trends have been reversed and started to grow. • Energy production is a key source of GHG e missions. • The total GHG emissions per person in 2005 exceeded 16 tonnes, including 12 tonnes of CO2. The CO2 absorption in forestry and the land use sector totalled 6 million tonnes, including more than 4 million tonnes by forests. • Overall, the country’s forest carbon sequestration potential covers only 2% of current national CO2 emissions.
Total greenhouse gas emissions
Total greenhouse gas emissions by sector
in Kazakhstan
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 350 300
in Kazakhstan Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 350
CO2
CH4
Waste
N2 O
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
Agriculture
Industrial processes Energy Land use change and forestry
0 1990
92
94
98
2000 01
02
Source: Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
03
04 2005
1990
92
94
98
2000 01
02
03
04 2005
Source: Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2005 in Kazakhstan 1990 level Energy activities Transport Communal and other sectors Fugitive emissions Industrial processes Agriculture Waste
+150%
Land use change and forestry
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0
+25%
+50%
Source: Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
39
Kyrgyzstan
Qaratau
KaraBalta
Belovodskoye
Aqsu Turar Rysqulov Shymkent Lenger Pskem
Chirchik Parkent
Tash-Komur
Ala-Buka
Tashkent Angren arya rD Sy
Almalyk Adrasman
Khujand Konibodom Kayrakkum Bekobod Res. Isfara
Bokonbaev Yshtyk
Song-Kol
Aksu
K Y R G Y Z S T Naryn A N Dostuk
Mayluu-Suu
Kochkor-Ata Namangan Jalal-Abad Uzgen U Z B E K I S T A N Andijan Shahrikon Asaka Kokand Osh Gulcho Margilan Kogart Ferghana Sokh
Nushor
Karakol Kyzyt-Suu
Akqi
To
Wushy
At-Bashy
Kok-Janggak
Ulugqat
Yardan
Daroot-Korgon
Yarm
Cholpon-Ata Ysyk-Kol
Naryn
Chatyr-Kol
Bachu Artux
Wuqia
Altyn Mazar Karakul
TAJIKISTAN
Kashgar Shule
Opal
u l-Su Kyzy
Akto Maji Karakul
Navabad
• Total emissions in 2005 amounted to 12 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalent, including 9 million tonnes from energy use, 0.5 million tonnes from industrial processes, 2 million tonnes from agriculture, and 0.6 million tonnes from waste. • The country’s emissions in 2005 were 2.5 times (250%) below the 1990 level. Such a dramatic decline in emissions is mainly due to an almost threefold reduction in fossil fuel use after independence.
Elevation in metres
Sanchakou
Sary-Tash
Vorukh
Istaravshan
Chaek
Toktogul
Chust
Yangiyol
Kemin Balykchy
Kyzart
Chakmak-Suu Toktogul
Kurulush
40
Tokmok
Kochkor
Kyzyl Adyr
Narymkol Tup
Bishkek
Talas
Temirlan Qarabulag
Zarafshan
Qulan Merke Oytal
Kegen
Talghar Almaty Uzynaghash
Korday
Chu
Taraz
Qazyghurt
Tole Bi
an He
Talas
Zhangatas
Shu
xk
KAZAKHSTAN
Saudakent
Jiashi
C
Yengisar
K
r He ashga
H
I 0
4000 3000 2000 1000 600 400
e tH ka n Yar
N
A
50
100
Markit
150
200 km
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, December 2009
• In the same period electricity generation, mainly by hydroelectric plants, and electricity consumption have increased. • The country’s GHG emissions, after an initially strong decline at the beginning of the 1990s, stabilized in 1994-95 and have continued to grow since then, which is related to economic growth and GDP change. • Energy use and agriculture are the two key sources of GHG emissions. Total GHG emissions per person in 2005 were 2.5 tonnes, including 1.7t onnes of CO2.
Total greenhouse gas emissions by sector
Total greenhouse gas emissions
in Kyrgyzstan
in Kyrgyzstan
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 30
30 CO2
CH4
Waste Agriculture
N2 O
25
25
Industrial processes Energy
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Land use change and forestry
0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005
Source: Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
Source: Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2005 in Kyrgyzstan 1990 level Energy activities
• Forests and tree plantations in Kyrgyzstan annually absorb 0.7 million tonnes of CO2, which totals about 10-15% of the country’s CO2 emissions.
Transport Communal and other sectors Fugitive emissions
• The capital city of Bishkek and Chui province contribute more than half of the total national emissions.
Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Land use change and forestry
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0
+25%
+50%
Source: Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
41
Tajikistan KAZAKHSTAN
Parkent
Shardara
Tashkent
Dostobod Yettisoy Syrdarya
Aydar Lake
Adrasman
Jizzakh Ghallaaral
Istaravshan
UZBEKISTAN
Kokand Margilan
ya Dar
Taboshar Boston Konibodom Khujand Bekobod Kayrakkum Isfara Res.
Gulistan
Osh
Yardan
Sokh
Panjakent
Yarm
4000 3000 2000 1000 600 400
Ulugqat
Sary-Tash l Kyzy
Djajilan
u -Su
g ar Kax
Altyn Mazar
He
CHINA Maji
Karakul Karakul
T A J I K I S T A N
Shahrisabz
Kogart
Gulcho
Vorukh
Nushor
200 km
150
Elevation in metres
K Y R G Y Z S T A N
Daroot-Korgon
Zarafshan
100
Ferghana
Samarkand Ayni
50
Jalal-Abad Uzgen
Andijan Asaka
Shahrikon
Almalyk
Syr
Dostlik Yangiqishlaq
Chust
Angren
Yangiyol
Shardara Res.
0
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, December 2009
Namangan
Navabad
Sangvor
Sherabad
Am uD
a igan
Dangara Vak sh
Shorchi
Yovon Kafirn
ary
Denov
Surh and
Baysun
Nurek Nurek Reservoir
Tursunzoda
Vose
Qurghonteppa
Qumqorghan Kolkhozobod
Khovaling
B
Taxkorgan
Gunt
Qizilrabot
Khorug Rubot Wakhan Faizabad
A F G H A N I S T A N Kholm
Toktomush Alichur
Chah-e Ab
ar y a
Kunduz
Murgab
Jelondi
Shaartuz
Termiz
Mazar-e Balkh Sharif
Rushon
Kisht
Kulob Moskva
Parkhar
Mur ga b
Vanj art an g
Sharghun
Kudara
Darvoz
nj
Hissar
Rogun
Vahdat
Pa
Dushanbe
Taloqan
Karkar
Baharak Ishkashim
Shachkan
P A K I S T A N
Khanabad
• Total emissions in 2003 amounted to 8.3 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalent which is three times (300%) lower than the country’s peak GHG emissions of 25 million tonnes in 1990.
• This dramatic decline in GHG emissions is mainly related to the serious economic decline and civil instability in the early 1990s and the overall reduction in fossil fuel use and industrial output after independence.
• Over the same period electricity generation, almost totally by hydroelectric plants (96-98%), and consumption have increased.
• The lowest GHG emissions were reported in 2000 at 7.4 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent.
42
Total greenhouse gas emissions
Total greenhouse gas emissions by sector
in Tajikistan
in Tajikistan Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
25
25 CO2
CH4
N 2O
Waste Agriculture
PFCs
Industrial processes
20
20
Energy Land use change and forestry
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 2003
Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 2003 Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2003 in Tajikistan 1990 level
• In 1990-2003 proportional contributions by GHG emission sources significantly changed: in 1990 the energy sector was the major emission source, accounting for 70% of total emissions, yet by 2003 its contribution had fallen to 30%, whereas the share of the agricultural sector increased to almost 50%.
Energy activities Transport Communal and other sectors Fugitive emissions Industrial processes Agriculture
• The total GHG emissions per person in Tajikistan in 2000-2003 were 1-2 tonnes, including 1 tonne of CO2. • Forests and tree plantations in Tajikistan annually absorb 0.7 million tonnes of CO2, accounting for 1520% of the country’s CO2 emissions.
Waste Land use change and forestry
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0
+25%
+50%
Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
43
Turkmenistan Aktau
former Aral Sea
Shieli
Zhanaozen
K A Z A K H S T A N
Tenge
Kuryk
Zhangaqorghan
Muynak
KAZAKHSTAN Qonghirat
Sarygamysh Lake
Aqbaytal
Chimboy
Khojayli
Nukus Uchkuduk
Boldumsaz
Garabogaz Karabogazgol
Dashoguz
Urgench
Zarafshan
S e a
Khiva
UZBEKISTAN Am u
Golden Age Lake
C a s p i a n
a
Balkanabat
Hazar
Bereket
Gumdag
Esenguly Elevation in metres
Shahrisabz
Karshi
Ghuzar Boysun
Ka rak um
Gonbad-e Qabus Bojnurd Jajarm
C Shirvan Lotfabad anal Dargaz
Esfarayen
Quchan
Sabzevar
R
A
300
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, December 2009
400 km
Tejen
Dushak Gannaly Mashad
Bayramaly Yoloten
Sarahs
N
Magdanly
Aqchah
S.Nyyazow
Mazar-e-Sharif
Sheberghan
Sar-e Pol
Tagtabazar Torbat-e-Jam
Maymana
Akrabat Serhetabat
AFGHANISTAN Qala i Naw
Sherabad Termiz
Andkhvoy
b
I
Kaka
Atamyrat
Murga
Nishapur
Kerkichi Mary
en Tej
Mayamey Damghan
Torbat-e Heydarieh
44
Karakul
Ashgabat
Etrek
200
Samarkand
Turkmenabat
(under construction)
Shahrood
100
Katta-Kurgan
Navoiy Bukhara
Gokdepe
Etrek
Gorgan Ali Abad
3000 2000 1000 500 200 100
Farap
Great Turkmen Collector
Baharly
Magtymguly
Bandar Torkaman T
Gazli
T U R K M E N I S T A N Serdar
Ekerem
0
Nurata Aydar Lake
Dary
Turkmenbashi
Total greenhouse gas emissions in Turkmenistan Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 60 by gas by sector N 2O 50
40
year 1994
Picture Turkmenistan
CH4 Waste Agriculture
30
Industrial processes Energy
20
CO2 10
0 Source: Turkmenistan’s Initial National Communication, 1999
• Total emissions in 1994 (the latest official reporting date) amounted to 52 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalent, including 32 million tonnes of CO2. • The energy production sector is a main contributor to total national emissions. • According to World Bank and US Energy Information Administration data, Turkmenistan’s current GHG emissions from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels are close to 1990 levels. 45
Uzbekistan 0
100
200
400 km
300
Aral
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, December 2009
Saryshagan
Northern Aral Sea Ayteke Bi
K A Z A K H S T A N
Baikonur
Lake Balkhash
Zhosaly
Shyghanaq
Aral Sea
Ulanbel
Kyzylorda Tasboget
Kentau
arya rD Sy
Nukus
Dashoguz
Urgench
Zarafshan
Khiva
Aydar Lake
UZBEKISTAN u Am
Golden Age Lake
a Dary
TURKMENISTAN
Serdar
Baharly
Navoiy Gazli
Farap Turkmenabat
Great Turk men Collector (under c onstruction)
Nurata
Bukhara Karakul
Panjakent Karshi
Gokdepe
Ashgabat Jajarm
Shirvan Lotfabad Dargaz Quchan Esfarayen
Kaka
Tejen
Mary
Karakum
Bayramaly Yoloten
Cana l
Kerkichi Atamyrat
• Total emissions in 2005 amounted to 199.8 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalent. • Almost 50% of all emissions consist of carbon dioxide (CO2), 45% is methane (CH4) and the rest (5%) other gases. 46
Shahrisabz Ghuzar
Bojnurd
Shymkent Pskem
Magdanly Andkhvoy
Denav Boysun Sherabad
Toktogul
KYRGYZSTAN Tash-Komur
Chirchik
Tashkent
Angren Almalyk
Dostlik
Jizzakh Katta-Kurgan Samarkand
Merke Kyzyl Adyr
Saryaghash Shardara
KaraBalta
Taraz
Tortkol Karatau
Qazyghurt
Uchkuduk
Aqkol
Zhanatas
Arys
Boldumsaz
Tole Bi Shu
Saudakent
Chust
Namangan
Kokand
Khujand
Gulistan
Istaravshan
Jalalabad Andijan Margilan Osh
Sary-Tash Daroot-Korgon
Yarm
Zarafshan
Navabad
Dushanbe
TAJIKISTAN
Elevation in metres
Darvoz
Vahdat
Kulob
Qurghonteppa
Termiz Shaartuz Parkhar
Kochkor-Ata
Ferghana
Vorukh
Ayni
Vaks h
Khojayli
Turkestan
Aqbaytal
Chimboy
Qonghirat Sarygamysh Lake
Sozaq Zhangaqorghan
Muynak
Khanatau
Moyynqum
Pan j
Shieli
Chu
Khorug Faizabad
4000 3000 2000 1000 500 200 100
AFGHANISTAN
• Total emissions are 9% above the 1990 level. • Total per capita GHG emissions in 2005 were 7 tonnes. • Energy production and use (86%) and agriculture (8%) are the two key sources of emissions.
Chu
Total greenhouse gas emissions
Total greenhouse gas emissions by sector
in Uzbekistan
in Uzbekistan Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 CO2
CH4
N 2O
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 2005 Energy
Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste
LUCF
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2005 in Uzbekistan 1990 level Energy activities Transport Communal and other sectors Fugitive emissions
• Emission trends differ by type of gas: CO2 emissions fell by 11% due to declining industrial production, while CH4 emissions increased due to growth in fossil fuel extraction, agriculture, population and waste generation. • National emissions could double (i.e. exceed 400 million tonnes in CO2-equivalent) in the next 10-15 years if no mitigation and energy-saving measures are implemented.
Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Land use and forestry
-50%
-25%
0
+25%
+50%
+75%
+100%
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
47
Energy production and flows Tolyatti
Penza
R
Samara
Ufa
U
S
S
I
Kokshetau
Kostanay
Balavoko
Omsk
Petropavlovsk
A
Magnitogorsk
Kumertau
Saratov
Chelyabinsk
Pavlodar
Rudniy
Stepnogorsk
Orenburg Oral
Atbasar Orsk
Karachaganak
Volgodonsk Volgograd
Ekibastuz
Astana
Aktobe
Ekibastuz coal mining
S
Temirtau
Arkalyk
Karaganda coal mining Karaganda
K A Z A K H S T A N Zhezkazgan Atyrau
Astrakhan
Balkhash Aral
Kashagan
Projected TurkmenChina pipeline
Beyneu
Makhachkala
Aktau Aktau (planned)
Baikonur
Dzhusaly
Dzhalagash Kyzylorda
Chiili
Tengiz
Derbent Nukus
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenbashi
Urganch
U Z B E K I S T A N Guliston Bukhara
Rasht
Karaj
Sari
Tehran Arak
Qom
I
R
A
Bojnurd Tejen Shirvan Mary Gonbad-e Kavus Quchan Gorgan Emamrud Mashad Damghan Sabzevar Neyshabur Torba-e Hydariyeh Dovletabad N Kashmar Serhetabat Torbat-e Jam
Fergana
Kashgar
Dushanbe
Termiz
Qurgonteppa
Khorug
Kunduz
Gilgit
Mazar-e Sharif
PAKISTAN Mongora
A F G H A N I S T A N
M
Herat
48
Jalal-Abad Osh
Rogun Nurek T A J I K I S T A N
Karshi Kokdumalak Atamyrat
Kamparata Andijan
Kokand
Khujand
Samarkand
Ashgabat Bandar-e Torkeman
Jizzax
Navoiy
Turkmenabat
Baharly
Angren
Tashkent
Balkanabat Serdar
Bishkek Toktogul K Y R G Y Z S T A N
Kabul
Baku
Ali Bayramli
Srinagar
Mardan
Jalalabad
Peshawar Kohat Ghazni
Birjand
Tokmok
Taraz Kara-Balta
Shymkent
Uchquduq Dashoguz
Zhanatas Karatau
Turkestan
Almaty
Shu
Kentau
Bannu
Wah
ISLAMABAD Rawalpindi
Jhelum
Jammu
Novosibirsk
Novokuznetsk
Hydropower plants: Operational Planned or under construction
Barnaul Biysk
Thermal power plants: Operational
Nuclear power plants: Operational Planned or under construction
Semey
Oskemen
Coal mining
Zyryanovsk
Oil and gas production Offshore oil production
Ayagoz
Sources of electricity in Central Asia comprise: brown coal (the least climate friendly type of primary energy), which provides 78% of Kazakhstan’s electricity, natural gas (more climate friendly type of primary energy) which is used for generating 80% or more electricity in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and, finally, hydropower (the most climate friendly type of primary energy) which contributes to more than 90% of electricity generation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Such an energy mix is closely related to the available dominant primary energy potential and clearly defines the national GHG emission profiles and GHG emission intensity per capita and per GDP.
Oil and gas pipelines Power supply line
Tacheng Karamay
Key sources of electricity (in %) Tajikistan
Sources: Energy and Resources Atlas of Russia; Swiss World Atlas
Shihezi Kuytun
Kyrgyzstan
Yining
Kuqa
Turkmenistan
Aksu
Uzbekistan
C H I N A Hotan
Kazakhstan
0
400
800
1200 km
Coal
Natural gas
Hydropower
Oil products
Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, December 2009
49
Mitigation If humanity wants to decrease or at least delay the impacts of the changing climate, it is imperative to drastically decrease GHG emissions. The next two or three decades will be crucial for our planet. There is considerable potential for reaching such a goal. Mitigation measures can bring several benefits. First of all, the reduction in GHG emissions from the energy and transport sector can also result in major and rapid health benefits from reduced air pollution in urban areas. The use of renewable energies also offers opportunities for reducing firewood consumption and therefore deforestation. Policies that put a price on GHG emissions could create incentives for producers and consumers to invest significantly in products, technologies and processes generating few GHG emissions. All Central Asian nations have adopted plans and strategies to combat global climate warming mainly by cutting GHG emissions and increasing energy efficiency. If they implement the full set of proposed measures, the countries could reduce energy consumption by 15-40% depending on sectors and regions. However total GHG emissions from Central Asia are projected to grow in the coming decade, all over the region and in almost all scenarios reported by the countries. From the perspective of mitigating global climate change this is a very unfortunate development and one wonders whether much more could not be done. For instance, a more substantial shift to renewable energy generation by the countries may well be possible and also economically feasible. More could also be done in the agricultural sector. In view of the growing national and regional energy demand in Pakistan, India, China and Afghanistan, the Central Asian states have chosen to increase their power generation capacities both using renewable (mainly hydropower) and non-renewable resources 50
such as coal-fired plants. For countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, coal-fired plants would serve as a short term solution to overcome problematic winter energy deficits and increase the country’s own energy security. In countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, already rich in non-renewable energy sources, the increase of their power generation capacities would increase the rate of use of these resources (mostly oil and gas but also coal). For example, Uzbekistan’s National Energy Strategy envisages increased coal use in the power generation sector from today’s 3-5% to 15-17% in the coming years. Economic and energy security considerations are the basis for such strategic decisions. As a consequence GHG emissions are expected to grow throughout the region, especially in the region’s largest economies (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) which are already the biggest emitters. The introduction of energy efficiency measures and cleaner technologies can help flatten the emissions curb. For example, in Uzbekistan, energy efficiency measures could help to avoid 40 million tonnes of GHG emissions in CO2-equivalent per year. In the country’s power generating sector, the proposed technological improvements could increase energy production by 20% without additional usage of fossil fuels. The transfer of vehicles to compressed natural gas, a measure promoted by the Uzbek government, could further reduce CO2 emissions by 400 thousand tonnes per year. More than 60 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects with a total potential for CO2 emission reductions of 14 million tonnes were prepared by Uzbekistan’s chemical, oil and gas, electric power industries and stakeholders in the waste sector for implementation with the involvement of foreign companies under the Kyoto Protocol. In Kazakhstan, improved technologies at coal-fired plants which constitute the bulk of national power capacity, and other energy efficiency measures
Mitigation techniques available today and tomorrow Strategies available today
ENERGY
Strategies available tomorrow*
• improved efficiency of coal-fired plants • reduction of heat, electricity and natural gas losses in local and national energy networks
• carbon capture and storage • cleaner technologies
• increased energy prices, reduction of subsidies • minimasing gas flaring in fossil energy production • increased capture of methane and its convertion to energy in coal mining industry • hybrid and more fuel-efficient vehicles • biofuels • use of compact low fuel consumption cars • shifts from road to rail and public transport • cycling and walking • transport planning, improved quality of roads
• second generation biofuels • higher-efficiency aircraft • advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
BUILDINGS
• more efficient appliances • efficient lighting, use of daylight • improved insulation • passive and active solar design • alternative refrigeration fluids
• integrated design of commercial buildings • solar photovoltaics integrated in buildings
INDUSTRY
• more efficient electrical equipment • heat and power recovery • material recycling and substitution • control of non-CO2 emissions
• advanced energy efficiency • CCS for cement, ammonia and iron manufacture • inert electrodes for aluminium production
TRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
FORESTRY
WASTE
• improved crop and pasture management to increase soil carbon storage • restoration of degraded lands, sustainable farming • improved rice-growing techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce methane emissions • more efficient application of nitrogen fertilizers
• improved crop yields
• afforestation and reforestation • reducing deforestation • improved management of forest resources • use of wood for bio-energy to replace fossil fuels
• improved remote sensing technology to analyse the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and soils, and map changes in land-use
• recovering methane from landfills • waste incineration with energy recovery • composting organic waste • recycling and minimising waste
• bio-covers and bio-filters to optimize methane oxidization
* expected to be available commercially before 2030 according to the IPCC
Sources: UNEP, 2009; synthesis of information from the Second National Communications
51
CO2 emissions in power generating sector of Kazakhstan
Million tonnes 160 No mitigation (baseline scenario)
120 80
Energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy
40 0
1990
2000
2012
2020
2030
Source: Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication, 2009
could reduce CO2 emissions by 30-50 million tonnes a year by 2020-25. In addition to conventional fuels, Kazakhstan plans to develop its vast wind and solar power potential. The increased use of small renewable energy sources can help to reduce CO2 emissions by 0.5-2.5 million tonnes a year. Additional benefits could be achieved in improving the residential heating sector. In an effort to reduce energy loss in the residential and commercial sector and combat its energy deficit, Tajikistan has recently banned the use of energy inefficient “Soviet-type” bulbs. Although this can be seen as a step in the right direction in terms of decreasing energy demand and increasing energy efficiency, a number of issues remain to be addressed. Essential energy losses occur during energy transmission and distribution. The new lamps are considerably more expensive than the usual bulbs and not affordable for poor people. Finally the environmental context is also important as many energy-efficient lamps available at the local market may contain mercury and the country has no capacities to correctly collect and recycle these lamps.
52
Darwaza, Turkmenistan
53
Teresken plants collected as fuel in the Pamirs 54
Impacts of Climate Change Adaptation
55
Climate change impacts
Ufa
Samara
Volga
Saratov
Chelyabinsk
Buzuluk Kumertau
Kostanay
Magnitogorsk
Kokshetau Stepnogorsk
Rudniy
Pavlodar
ys h
Irt
Orenburg
Atbasar
Oral
Orsk
Astana
Aktobe
Ural
Volgograd
Omsk
Petropavlovsk
R U S S I A
Tolyatti
Penza
Arkalyk
Temirtau Karaganda
K A Z A K H S T A N Atyrau
Zhezkazgan
Astrakhan
Balkhash Lake Balkhash
Aral Baikonur
Aral Sea
Ku ra Ali Bayramli
Chu
Zhanaozen
ar ya
Dashoguz
Tashkent U Z B E K I S T A N
ya Dar Amu
TURKMENISTAN
Balkanabat
Navoiy Bukhara
Turkmenabat
56
Gorgan
Neyshabur Qom
I R A N
Mashad
Osh Kashgar
Khujand
TAJIKISTAN
Karshi
Dushanbe Mary
Termiz
b gha Mur
Arak
Sari
Tehran
Gonbad-e Kavus Bojnurd A trek
Naryn
Jalal-Abad
Katta-Kurgan
Ashgabat
Rasht
Y
KYRGYZSTAN
Toktogul
Ferghana Jizzakh
Bishkek Balykchy
Angren
Baku
Karaj
Kara-Balta
Taraz
Shymkent
Urganch
Almaty
Zhanatas
Turkestan
Uchkuduk
Kara-BogazGol
Turkmenbashi
Hamadan
Kentau
Nukus
a S e
Mingachevir
Aktau
rD Sy
Derbent
n p i a C a s
Makhachkala
Ili Kyzylorda
Mazar-e Sharif
Qurghonteppa
Khorug
Kunduz
AFGHANISTAN
Gilgit
PAKISTAN Mingora
Impacts:
Novosibirsk
Ob
Novokuznetsk
Projected increase in river flow
Barnaul
Index of vulnerability to climate change*
Projected reduction in river flow
Biysk
TAJIKISTAN
Risk of flooding due to sea level fluctuation and rise
Albania
Glaciers and sea-ice melting
Semey
Oskemen Zyryanovsk
Ayagoz
Armenia Georgia
Severe drought impacts
UZBEKISTAN
Increased risk of climate-related hazards in the mountains
TURKMENISTAN
Azerbaijan
Areas of concern:
Lake Zaysan Tacheng Karamay
Kuytun Taldykorgan
KYRGYZSTAN
Increased rainfall and higher productivity of wheat crops and pastures
Shihezi
Turkey
Hazardous waste sites and industries which can be affected by extreme weather events and natural disasters
Moldova Serbia Macedonia (F.Y.R.)
Environmental crisis areas, where climate change may worsen situation
Russia Bulgaria Bosnia
Ghulja
KAZAKHSTAN Romania Ukraine
Tup Ysik-Kol
Kuqa Aksu
Belarus Croatia
He im Tar
C H I N A Hotan
0
100
200
300 km
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, December 2009
* Vulnerability to climate change is a combination of: i) exposure to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change relative to today’s climate, ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate change, e.g. renewable water resources, agriculture and hydropower production, and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to respond to weather shocks and variability.
Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Slovakia Sensitivity to climate change Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity
Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia
10
8
6
4
2
Increasing sensitivity and exposure
0
-2
-4
-6
Adaptation capacity
Source: World Bank, 2009
57
Central Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The World Bank has given the highest vulnerability rank to four of the five Central Asia countries among 28 nations of Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. The most vulnerable are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Economic losses from weather hazards
Average annual losses, US $ million 45 40 30
Over the next 10 to 20 years, climate change will exacerbate this situation dominated by socio-economic factors and legacies from the past – notably a dire environment situation and degrading infrastructure.
10
But something could be done to reverse the situation.
0
The next two decades offer a window of opportunity for Central Asian states to make their development more resilient to climate change by improving key sectors, such as water resource management, land use, biodiversity protection, addressing environmental pollution, and strengthening cooperation between states on forecasting and mitigation of disaster risks. If nothing is done to mitigate the impact, it is the economy (agriculture, stock raising), and the health and security of the population which will be most at risk. In the health sector, temperature and heat stress contribute to cardiovascular disease. Climate warming causes increased malaria risk and malaria outbreaks, as well as vector-borne diseases and intestinal infections (typhoid, salmonellas, dysentery, helminthiasis) due to heavy rainfall, increased temperatures and inappropriate communal water supply. Children and women in rural areas will be the most at risk. There is little doubt that climate change will force people to move from the affected areas with a high level of environmental stress and impacts on agriculture and water resources.
58
Average economic losses caused by weather hazards
20
Preventable losses through improved weather services and disaster preparedness
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan
Source: World Bank, 2009
In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, average annual economic losses reach 1-1.5% GDP (equivalent to US$25-30 million). Estimates foresee that in some years, the impact will reach 5% GDP. Northern Kazakhstan is the bread basket of the region. Climate warming and increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere may have a beneficial effect on vegetation and will increase the production of wheat and productivity of pastures. But a future increase in temperature by 4-6°C by 2080-2100 and extreme weather events could jeopardize the short term benefit and even depress crop productivity. It is expected, for instance, that cereals and vegetable production, could decrease by 10-15% after 2050. Sheep breeding (mostly in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan) is sensitive to heat stress and high temperatures exceeding the limits of animal’s endurance. Climate warming and desertification would have a huge impact on pasture productivity, constrain sheep breeding and reduce wool production by 1020%. Grazing conditions and pasture productivity can improve in winter and spring, but deteriorate in summer and autumn.
In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan pasture degradation linked to climate change is not expected. Other factors such as grazing pressure and regulations, availability of water and impacts of dust storms from the Aral Sea area are expected to be the main hazards.
Damage from natural disasters in Tajikistan (1998-2008) by sector Million Tajik somoni 250 Unspecified
A 10% increase in precipitation in the mountains prone to erosion could double the volume of sediment transported by the Vakhsh and Naryn rivers. This would increase the intensity of sedimentation in reservoirs and, in turn, reduce energy potential. The two rivers are the main sources of hydropower generation in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan The population of Central Asia is rapidly growing, putting pressure on demand for water. This will be dramatic in case of scarcity. If no measures are taken, if no new economic development models are put into place, there is a strong risk of disputes over water-sharing. In scenarios of high climate warming by +5+6°C and lack of precipitation, water resources in the main rivers would fall by 15-40%. With less fresh water and land suitable for agricultural use, people will have to move to places where they can survive. Droughts and crop failures will push inhabitants of the rain-fed areas and arid pastures towards cities and irrigated land. Water is both a key resource for agricultural production and for electricity generation in the region. Competition for the control of this vital resource is likely to increase while the flow of the rivers may decline in the next 50 years. As mountain countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will probably have enough water for their own needs but may not be able to meet demand in their role as regional water suppliers.
Agricultural crops
200
Irrigation and water supply Transport, communication
150
Public and social services
100 50 0 1998 99 2000 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Tajik Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, 2009
08 * * 9 months
Damage from natural disasters
in Tajikistan (1998-2008) by type of hazard Epidemics
1%
Intense snow 1% Strong wind 1% Landslides
Earthquakes
16%
4%
Floods, mudflows and avalanches Droughts
52%
25%
Source: Tajik Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, 2009
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as downstream states, with extensive irrigated agriculture and high dependence on external water supplies may suffer the most from water deficit.
59
Ship wreck, the Aral Sea region
60
61
The shrinking Aral Sea 1960
1980
Aralsk
2000
Aralsk
2009
Aralsk
Aralsk
Switzerland
(comparative size)
North Aral dam
Muynak
Muynak
Muynak
Dust storms
Temperature rise
in the Aral Sea region
in the Aral Sea region (Nukus)
Visibility less than 10 km Visibility less than 1 km
14
20
13
15
12
10
11
5
10 9
0 1950
1960
Source: Kurosaki et al 2007
62
Geneva
Annual average air temperature, C° 15
Annual number of dust storms 30 25
100 km
Muynak
1970
1980
1990
2000 2005
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008
2000 2005
Water withdrawal and availability in the Aral Sea basin
km3 per year 60
Flow generation: water available in the country from rainfall and glacier melt Water abstraction: withdrawal from surface water sources (rivers, canals and lakes) 50
Metres 3 000 2 000 1 000 500 200 0
40
TAJIKISTAN UZBEKISTAN
30
KYRGYZSTAN RUSSIA
RUSSIA
20
TURKMENISTAN ARAL SEA
KAZAKHSTAN Syr
u Am
CASPIAN SEA
0
200
400
Da
600 km
LAKE BALKHASH
10
ya
0
CHINA
rya
IRAN AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
Source: Diagnostic Report on Water Resources in Central Asia, ICWC 2000.
THE MAP DOES NOT IMPLY THE EXPRESSION OF ANY OPINION ON THE PART OF THE AGENCIES CONCERNING THE LEGAL STATUS OF ANY COUNTRY, TERRITORY, CITY OR AREA OF ITS AUTHORITY, OR DELINEATION OF ITS FRONTIERS AND BOUNDARIES.
MAP BY VIKTOR NOVIKOV AND PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ - UNEP/GRID-ARENDAL - APRIL 2005
The Aral Sea near extinction One of the striking examples is the tragedy of the environmental mismanagement of the Aral Sea basin and the danger it represents for the economy and the populations in a changing climate. The Aral Sea is now near extinction. It used to be the fourth largest lake in the world. It has shrunk dramatically over the last five decades from 68,000 km2 to less than 10,000 km2, humans having used up almost all of the natural river flow.
As a result, population in the arid regions adjoining the Aral Sea must endure increasingly inhospitable conditions. There is less water to drink. It is not safe. Agricultural production is declining with desertification and worsening climate conditions. Following the desert expansion after the Aral dried up, there have been more powerful dust storms with more health problems and ecological stress.
63
Long-term flow of the Syr Darya
Average seasonal flow of the Syr Darya
3
Water discharge, m per second 2 500
Water discharge, m3 per second 2 000 Irrigation season
2 000
1 600 Flow reduction
1 500
1 200
Toktogul reservoir (KYR) operation start
1 000
800
500
400
0 1950
0 1960 1970 Kal (Syr Darya upstream)
1980
1990 Kazalinsk (delta)
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Today
Source: Shiklomanov, 2009
Projection 2071-2100 (A1B emission scenario)
Source: Shiklomanov 2009
The flow of the rivers
Climate change projections for the Syr Darya basin
So far, the good news is that, in spite of observable reduction in glacier size and volume, the flow of Central Asia rivers has not changed significantly. In selected river basins, the intensified glacier and permafrost melting has even increased discharge of rivers by 6-8% while runoff from glacier-free river basins has dropped slightly.
Basin-averaged precipitation, mm per year 700 Kal gauging section 600 500 400 Projections
300 200 1950
2000
2050
Basin-averaged air temperature, C° 6 5 Projections
4 3 2 1
Kal gauging section 0 1950 Source: Shiklomanov, 2009
64
2000
2050
However, in the longer-term regional water resources are under threat. In strong climate warming scenarios (+5+6°C warming), water resources in the main rivers will decline dramatically. By 2050 the water flow of the Amu Darya may be reduced by 10-15% and the Syr Darya by 5%, as a result of the loss of glaciers and permafrost, higher temperatures, increased evaporation and reduced surface runoff. The severe 2000-01 drought in southern parts of Central Asia may serve as a model for the future. During this drought Tajikistan and Afghanistan experienced a substantial failure of rain-fed crops while water shortages strongly affected the lower reaches of the Amu Darya river, especially Karakalpakstan in U zbekistan.
Average seasonal flow of the Amu Darya
Long-term flow of the Amu Darya Water discharge, m per second 6 000
Water discharge, m3 per second 5 000 Irrigation season
5 000
4 000
3
Flow reduction
4 000
3 000
3 000 2 000 2 000 1 000
1 000
0
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
Kerki (Amu Darya middle stream)
1990
2000
Samanbai (delta)
Source: Shiklomanov, 2009
Source: Shiklomanov, 2009
Models for other major river basins in Kazakhstan (Ural and Irtysh) suggest that in the long-term some increase in water flow due to enhanced precipitation and runoff is likely.
Climate change projections for the Amu Darya basin Basin-averaged precipitation, mm 700
Kerki gauging section 600 500 400
200 2000
2050
Basin-averaged air temperature, C° 11 10 9 Projections
8
Examples of water resource change and climate impacts: The Amu Darya river:
Projections
300 1950
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Today Projection 2071-2100 (A1B emission scenario)
7 6
Kerki gauging section
• A key source of water for Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, is highly dependent on melt waters from glaciers and permafrost which promote summer peak flow (June-September) in the Panj and Vaksh rivers, contributing more than 40% of seasonal river flow. This ideally coincides with the critical period of highest water demand for irrigation. But it seems that water formation in the Amu Darya basin is decreasing. Even more worrying is a trend related to low-water years, as water levels are reaching more and more extreme minimums. For example, such a situation occurred in 2000, 2001 and 2008.
5
1950
2000
2050
Source: Shiklomanov, 2009
65
The Sokh river:
Small rivers and melting glaciers Water discharge, m3 per second
65 1957 2005
55
Glacier area in the Sokh river basin
45 35 Sokh river
25 1950
2005
Lake Balkhash:
Sources: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008; Glazirin, 2008
Average seasonal flow of the Ili river 3
Water discharge, m per second 300 250 Flow reduction 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Today
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Projection 2071-2100 (A1B emission scenario)
Source: Shiklomanov 2009
Balkhash
Lake Balkhash Ili
66
• Originating in the juniper-covered Turkestan mountains of Kyrgyzstan and flowing into the Uzbek part of the Ferghana Valley, is a typical mountain river fed by glacial and snow waters. The glacier area in the Sokh river basin has been constantly shrinking. At the same time, intense ice and permafrost melting augmented the river flow. If climate warming in the Sokh river basin continues at the current rate and intensifies, the available ice and snow reserves could be exhausted in two to three decades, then the river flow may abate and the whole river hydrography change.
0
50
100 km
• Central Asia’s second-largest lake in Kazakhstan, covering 16,000 km2 and extending 600 km in length. Located in Kazakhstan’s most populous region, it may now be drying out. The lake is fed principally by the Ili river, which starts in China and provides 80% of water inflow. The lake has no outlet. Climate warming has increased water evaporation from the lake, which combined with growing water diversion by both countries for economic needs and the construction of dams, has already reduced the depth of the lake and raised its saline content. Increased precipitation and intense glacier melting in the last five decades have so far have contributed to a 10% increase in river flow. However, experts suggest that further climate warming may exhaust glaciers and snow reserves. On top of this, rapid socio-economic development, especially in the Chinese part of the Ili river basin, will contribute to declining water flow and greater environmental and social stress in the area. Unless strategic environmental management measures are not taken urgently, the lake’s pollution by industrial, mining and refinery enterprises, as well as the agricultural sector, will only worsen this precarious situation.On the contrary, snow and rainfed rivers with small or no glaciers in southern parts of Central Asia such as Murghab, Tedzhen and Atrek are already experiencing some reduction in water flow.
TALAS
Industrial pollution and waste hotspots in the Ferghana Valley
C
h ir
Naryn
TEREKSAY
ng
n ar o
Ah
a
Tashkent
Chardara Reservoir
100 km
CHUY
Charvak Reservoir
ik ch
50
Toktogul Reservoir
KYRGYZSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
0
YANGIABAT
SUMSAR
JALAL-ABAD
KYZYLDZHAR SHEKAFTAR TASH-KUMYR
MAILUU-SUU
CHARKESAR
ANGREN
TASHKENT ALMALYK
r- D a
TABOSHAR
Gulistan SYRDARYA
UZBEKISTAN
Kokand
Osh Ferghana
KANIBADAM ISFARA SHURAB
KADAMJAI
Batken
ULUG-TOO
KYZYL-KIA
KAN
DEGMAY GAFUROV CHKALOVSK
SOGD
Kara-Darya Andijan Reservoir
MINGBULAK OIL FIELD
ya ar
Khujand
BEKABAD
Jizzakh JIZZAKH
S
D y r-
Andijan
UYGURSAY
ADRASMAN
a ry
Syrdarya
Jalal-Abad
Namangan
Sy
CHAUVAY
OSH SULUKTA
KHAIDARKAN
BATKEN
u Kyzyls
Zeravshan
TAJIKISTAN
CHINA
ANZOB
Poorly managed waste sites
Polluting industries
Pesticides and hazardous chemicals
Metallurgical industry
Mining tailing ponds
Oil and coal production
Urban waste
Radioactive contamination sites Uranuim tailings and radioactive material processing sites
The Soviet Union used the Ferghana valley as one of its main sources of metal and uranium ore, exploring some 50 deposits in the area. The legacy of these past operations remains since hazardous wastes sites were not remediated and are often located in weather-sensitive, flood-prone locations, near towns and along rivers and drainage zones. The Ferghana val-
Pollution pathways Transboundary and local risk of soil, air and water contamination Spills and possible cross-border impacts industrial accidents
MAP BY VIKTOR NOVIKOV AND PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ Produced by GRID-ARENDAL - APR 2005 Updated by ZOI Environment Network - NOV 2009
ley is already prone to natural hazards like floods and mudslides. Pollutant spills and natural disasters could affect a population far beyond people living in the vicinity. Unfortunately the impacts of adverse weather are compounded by poor environmental monitoring and control mechanisms. 67
Aralsk Northern Aral Sea
Water resources of the Aral Sea basin
n Sea
Lake Balkhash
I
K A Z A K H S T A N Southern Aral Sea
Ar a l K u m
Muynak
KAZ 10 rD Sy
Sarygamysh Lake
ya ar
Karakalpakstan 7.9
1
l Go az og aB Kar
Prospective Collector
K Charvak
Tashauz 6.51
(37) Lebap 3.9
T U R K M E N I S T A N
Zar avs h
5.3 Amu-Bukhara 5.2
Great Turkmen Collector (under construction)
1.54
KYR 0.1
Kashkadarya 1.2
Am
uD
0.98
High water losses along Karakum Canal
UZB 10 an
0.3
Karakum Canal 11
ary
a
0.2
4.84
Murgab
R
A
N
0.5
h
s Vak
TAJIKISTAN
0.63
1.5
20.05
5.54 33.38 Other rivers: 6.17
Tejen
I
Kafarnigan TJK 6.6
Dushanbe
Surhandarya Karshi 4.19 UZB 1.4 Sherabad
Ashgabat
4 Kara Darya Rivers of Ferghana Valley: 8
1 TJK 2
Aydar Lake
KYR 3
Kokcha
UZB 5.3
15
UZB 10
9
Pa nj
Golden Age Lake (under construction)
Horezm 4.4 (UZB) Dashoguz Collector (under construction)
Ahangaran
Tashkent
UZBEKISTAN
Prospective expansion of irrigation
A F G H A N I S T A N duz
Kun
Kabul Hari Rud 0
250
500
750
1000 km
Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network for ENVSEC Amu Darya assessment, December 2009
PAKISTAN
ndu
s
68
Is
water divertion river flow
Ili
The width of the line reflects the volume of the flow but is not directly proportional to it
Mountain regions above 2 000 metres Irrigated lands Drainage Re-use of drainage Main glacier areas
Bishkek
Ysik-Kol
KYRGYZSTAN Naryn
Petrov glacier
Climate change impact on flow of large rivers
70 Average flow 30 and intake 10 (km3/year) 5
Average annual flow, km3 90 Reduction of river flow projected by 2071-2100 80 comparing to today (A1B scenario) 70
Source: www.cawater-info.net
60 50 40
C H I N A
30 20 10 0 A M U D A R YA
S Y R D A R YA
Sources: Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication, 2008;, Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication, 2009; Shiklomanov, 2009
I N D I A
slamabad
C
69 h
ab en
Climate change impact on ecosystems Elevation, m 4 000
9
Migratory birds
Nival (glacier) ecosystem
3 500
10 Lakes
3 000
8 2 500
Alpine ecosystem
Evergreen forests (juniper, pine) 2 000
7
Broad-leaf forests (walnut, apple, maple) 4 Sensitive species and ecotones
1 500
Xerophitic forests (pistachio, saxaul) 11 and pastures
6 Agricultural ecosystems (0-3000 m) 12
5 1 000
Tugai ecosystem Deserts and (river floodplains) 500 semi-deserts 2 1
Middle mountain ecosystems
Steppes 3
0
Concept: I. Abdusalomov and V. Novikov
1 - Increased climate aridity, expansion of desert areas
7 - Shift of forest communities to higher altitudes, risk of fires
2 - Ecosystem degradation due to reduced river flow, increased risk of fires and diseases
8 - Degradation and reduction of habitats, reduction of forage
3 - Increased ecosystem productivity in northern parts of Central Asia, northward shift of vegetation 9 - Glacier melt and vegetation succession, alpine habitat loss 4 - Forest degradation due to reduced runoff, increased risk of droughts and diseases
10 - Physical and biological changes in high mountain lakes
5 - Changes in species composition, risk of extinction of endangered and vulnerable species
11 - Changes in phenology (earlier ripening, fading), pest attacks
6 - Alteration of food-chains, change in the balance of predators and herbivorous animals
12 - Mixed negative and positive effects of climate warming
Climate change is increasingly becoming a factor defining the future conditions of the region’s ecosystems and adds to environmental stress on sensitive flora and fauna species. Vegetation succession can be observed at many alpine sites of Central Asia, which were covered by ice until recently. Mountain species see their ecosystems changing. Droughts, a more arid climate and the reduction of water flow in the rivers strongly affect aquatic and tugai floodplain forest ecosystems. 70
The areas annually affected by locust (mainly in southern Central Asia) significantly increased. Pest attacks in southern Tajikistan in 2003-05 halved the cotton harvest in the most hit districts. The risk of forest fires and of spreading forest diseases has amplified. Scientists warn that the southern limits of forest areas in Kazakhstan can experience significant changes due to climate warming.
71
Adaptation With climate change, population growth and plans for steadily increasing agricultural output, water will become a fundamental issue for the region. Less water will be available in the period of highest demand for irrigation in the future. The prospects of climate change impacts on the large river basins of Central Asia such as the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya are mainly pessimistic and suggest a reduction of the rivers’ water flow in the long-term. In the light of this, policy and technical measures for improving water monitoring, the efficiency of water use and water recycling should receive much more attention. A serious adaptation effort needs to be developed not only by single countries but also regionally since issues like transboundary water management are a matter of concern for the whole of Central Asia. Demonstration projects implemented in the Ferghana Valley on integrated water resource management
Actual water delivery during growing season Southern Ferghana Valley canal
Million m3 per year 1 200
Introduction of the Integrated water resource management (IWRM)
1 000 800 600 400 200 0
2003
2004
Source: Swiss Development Cooperation
72
2005
2006
2007
(IWRM) received high scores for water conservation and delivery efficiency. This positive experience could be expanded into other priority regions. Demonstration projects on flexible and climate-resilient agricultural practices will be important to enhance economic and food security. Health issues such as heat stress, risk of infections and vector-borne diseases could be addressed through a number of social, policy and technical measures. An effective and timely response to severe droughts, heat waves, disease and natural disasters, as well as safety in the energy and transport sectors, depend on the quality of weather services and early warning. In the past 15 years climate and environmental monitoring systems in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan have deteriorated. These countries are consequently having difficulty fulfilling national, regional and international obligations on weather and water data reporting and exchange. The World Bank estimates that each US dollar invested in modernizing climate observation systems and weather services in Central Asia may yield US$2-3.5 (200-350%) in economic benefits by avoiding damage from natural disasters and improved and safer operation of businesses. Therefore, environmental observation and early warning systems need to be strengthened as a priority. The Global Environment Facility (The GEF) is one of the main financial mechanisms under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The GEF contributed more than US$25 million of co-financing for demonstration projects in Central Asia on improving energy efficiency, application of small renewable energies in rural and remote regions, sustainable transportation, waste management, other climate-friendly technologies and adaptation. These projects are not only limited by the national scale. Many projects are community-based, while individuals and small businesses with innovative ideas can apply for GEF Small Grants. However, the existing level of climate finance is limited. It is hoped that with the beginning of the GEF-5 cycle in 2010, more projects on climate change mitigation and adaptation will be financed in Central Asia.
Adaptation options
WATER USE
AGRICULTURE
HEALTH
• improved climate and water monitoring and forecasting • integrated water resource managment (IWRM) • revision of water consumption norms and regulations • broad introducation of efficient irrigation technologies • water re-use and re-cycling, drainage water managment • improved water quality control and pollution prevention • water saving incentives and training for farmers • rehabilitation of water pipelines and canals • improved agrometeorological and veterenary services, training, scientific and technical support for farmers • selection and introduction of drought- and pest-resistant and low water consumption crops, crops protection • conservation of valuable agro-biodiversity • water storage for reliable water supply in dry years • crop rotation and shift towards more suitable areas • rehabilitation of degraded pastures and croplands • remote sensing and mapping of pasture conditions • insurance, strategic food and forrage reserves • malaria prevention and control • improved drinking water quality and sanitation facilities • new regulations for farmers working in the field in summer • public awareness and early warning • new urban planning principles, better microclimate control • adjustment of hydropower plant operations according to stream flow change and projected climatic impacts
TRANSPORT and ENERGY
• improved security of energy supply and transfer networks
ECOSYSTEMS
• systematic research and monitoring • protection of important ecological corridors and sites • conservation of endangered species • public awareness, responsible eco-tourism
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• improved capacities for monitoring and forecasting of extreme weather events, hazard mapping • engineering protection measures and early warning • insurance and risk management, public awareness
• revised road construction norms and traffic load • protection of vulnerable transport infrastructure
Source: synthesis of the Second National Communications and the National Strategies/Action Plans on Climate Change
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Environment and Security issues in the Aral Sea basin
Factor: Global Climate Change Changing precipitation patterns, melting ice, transboundary water resource depletion, natural disasters
Increased uncertainties
water biodiversity
Irrigated Agriculture
geopolitics
Soil salinization, chemicals washout, inefficient water use, collector-drainage water management
global change
Impact on livelihoods, local and cross-border issues
Aral Sea region; Amu Darya and Syr Darya deltas Soil and biodiversity degradation, accumulation of toxic chemicals, water pollution and lack of safe drinking and irrigation water
Impact on livelihoods, environmental migration
T U R K M E N I S TA N
K A Z A K H S TA N LOWLAND
74
U Z B E K I S TA N
Factor: Global Financial Crisis Migration workers, large investment projects
Increased uncertainties
Factor: Afghanistan Insecurity and weak institutions, drugs production and trade, people displacement and migration, uncontrolled environment degradation
Direct security risks, impact on livelihoods
Energy and Hydropower Disruption of energy supply for population and businesses, economic development constrains
Impact on livelihoods, international disputes
TA J I K I S TA N
Biodiversity Mountain pastures, agro-biodiversity, rare and globally endangered species
Impact on livelihoods, income distribution
K Y R G Y Z S TA N
A F G H A N I S TA N
HIGHLAND Concept: Otto Simonett and Viktor Novikov
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References Main background documents: Kazakhstan’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1998. Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ kaznc1.pdf Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009. Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ kaznc2e.pdf Kyrgyzstan’s First National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2003. Ministry of Ecology and Emergencies of the Kyrgyz Republic. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/kyrnc1.pdf Kyrgyzstan’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009. State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry under the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/kyrnc2e.pdf Tajikistan’s First National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2002. Main Administration on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring under the Ministry for Nature Protection of the Republic Tajikistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ natc/tainc1.pdf Tajikistan’s First National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Capacity Building in Priority Areas. 2003. Main Administration on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring under the Ministry for Nature Protection of the Republic Tajikistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/tajnc1add.pdf Tajikistan’s National Action Plan on Climate Change Mitigation. 2003. Main Administration on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring under the Ministry for Nature Protection of the Republic Tajikistan. Eds: Makhmadaliev B., Novikov V., Kayumov A., Karimov U. Available at: http://unfccc. int/resource/docs/nap/tainap01e.pdf
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Tajikistan’s State of the Environment Report. 2002. Eds: Safarov N., Novikov V. Laboratory for Nature Protection under the Ministry for Nature Protection of the Republic Tajikistan. Available at: http://enrin.grida.no/htmls/tadjik/soe2001/eng/index.htm Tajikistan’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2008. State Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Committee for Environmental Protection. The Government of the Republic Tajikistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ tainc2.pdf Turkmenistan’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1999. Ministry for Nature Protection of Turkmenistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/tkmnc1.pdf Turkmenistan’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Capacity Building in Priority Areas. 2006. Ministry for Nature Protection of Turkmenistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ natc/tkmnc1a1.pdf Uzbekistan’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1999. Main Administration of Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/uzbnc1.pdf Uzbekistan’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2008. Centre of Hydrometeorological Service under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Available at: http:// unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/uzbnc2e.zip Additional references: Agaltseva N. 2008. Prospective change of the Central Asian rivers runoff with glaciers feeding under different climate scenarios. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-00464. Aizen V. 2008. Is Central Asia really exsiccated? Presentation at the AGU Meeting, December 15-19, 2008, San Francisco, USA. Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative. Available at: www.neespi.org/web-content/meetings/AGU.../ Aizen_AGU_2008.ppt
Aizen V. et al. 2007. Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data. In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 56, 3-4, April 2007: 328-340 Atamuradova I. 2006. Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for the Caspian Basin, Turkmenistan.
Mustaeva N. 2009. Exploring indirect evidences of environmental change in the Pamir-Alai Mountains during the last century. Central European University.
impact on and water
Niederer P., Bilenko V., Ershova N., Hurni H., Yerokhin S., Maselli D. 2008. Tracing glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years. In: Climatic Change (2008) 86:227–234.
Dikikh, A. 2002. Atmospheric circulation and chemical pollution of the Tien Shan glaciers. Working Paper. Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University. Available at: http://www.planet.elcat. kg/?cont=article&article=4
Nosenko G., Kotlyakov V. et al. 2009. Assessment of glacier changes in mountain regions of the Former Soviet Union using recent satellite data and historical data sets. Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Northern Eurasia High Mountain Ecosystems, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, September 8-15, 2009.
Chub V. 2007. Climate change and its hydrometeorological processes, agroclimatic resourcesof the Republic of Uzbekistan.
Dukhovny, V. (ed). 2002. Dialogue on water and climate: Aral Sea Basin case study. Final report. Tashkent: Scientific Information Center under the Interstate Commission on Water Coordination. Available at: http://www.wac.ihe.nl/dialogue/Basin/Aral_Sea/ documents/021209FinalReport.doc Eurasian Development Bank. 2009. The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Asia. Almaty. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Fourth Assessment Report. Available at: http://www1.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm Kouraev A. 2008. Comparison of historical and satellite derived data of the Northern Caspian ice cover. Kozhevnikova I, A. Shveikina. 2006. Probability forecast of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations based on non-linear models. In: Extreme hydrological events in the Aral-Caspian region. Workshop Proceedings. Available in Russian at: http://caspi.ru/ HTML/Conf/Trud-r-1/Kojevnikova.pdf Kurosaki Y., Sokolik N., Razuvaev V. 2007. Analyses of ground-based and satellite observations for developing a dust climatology in Central and East Asia. Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union. Marchenko S., Romanovsky V. 2009. Temporal and Spatial Permafrost Dynamics in the Tien Shan Mountains During the Last Millennia. Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Northern Eurasia High Mountain Ecosystems, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, September 8-15, 2009.
Novikov V. 2004. The impact of climate change on natural resources and socioeconomic systems in Central Asia and its implications for regional environmental security. A case study of the Pamir and Tien-Shan mountains. Central European U niversity. Panin G. 2007. Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for the Caspian Basin. Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences. Rodionov N. 1998. Global and regional climate interaction: the Caspian Sea experience. Moscow. Shiklomanov A. 2009. Hydrological change in the mountainous and downstream regions of Central Asia. Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Northern Eurasia High Mountain Ecosystems, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, September 8-15, 2009. Available at: http://www.neespi.org/meetings/Bishkek_2009.htm Tajik Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense. 2009. In: The Proceedings of the Regional Seminar on “Improvement Weather, Climate and Hydrological Service Delivery and Disaster Risk Reduction in Central Asia and Caucasus”, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, November 10-12, 2009. Available at: http://go.worldbank.org/TAH271KBR0 UNEP/GRID-Europe. 2004. Lake Balkhash assessment. Eds. Rizzolio D., Le Sourd G. Available at http://www.grid.unep.ch/ activities/sustainable/balkhash/index.php UNEP/WGMS. 2008. Global Glacier Changes: facts and figures. Eds: Zemp M., Woerden J. et al.
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UNEP, UNDP, OSCE, NATO. 2005. Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation. Ferghana-Osh-Khujand area. Available at: http://www.envsec.org/centasia/pub/ferghana-report-engb.pdf UNEP, UNDP, UNECE, OSCE, REC, NATO. 2008. Environment and Security: Transforming risks into cooperation. The case of the Eastern Caspian Region. Available at: http://www.envsec. org/centasia/pub/caspian2eng_scr.pdf UNEP. 2007. Global Outlook of Ice and Snow. Available at: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/ UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 2009. Climate in Peril: A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports. Eds: Kirby. A., Stuhlberger Ch., Heberlein C., Tveitdal S. Available at: http://www.grida.no/publications/ climate-in-peril/ World Bank. 2008. Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A Regional Review. World Bank. 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ ECAEXT/Resources/258598-1243892418318/ECA_CCA_Full_ Report.pdf Yablokov, A. 2006. The impact of global warming on glaciers and glacial lakes in Tajikistan: the expert assessment report. Main Administration on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Tajikistan. Online databases and information sources: Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org interactive web tool developed by The Nature Conservancy, The University of Washington, and The University of Southern Mississippi NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ NOAA’s El Nino page: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ U.K. Climatic Research Unit: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): http://www.eia.doe.gov/ World Bank development indicators: http://publications.worldbank.org/WDI/
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Rock painting B.C., Kyrgyzstan
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