ENVIRONMENT AND SECURITY
The Rogun dam and power plant is planned on the Vakhsh River, upstream from the Nurek dam, currently Tajikistan’s main source of electricity. Started under the Soviet Union, Rogun was still incomplete at independence. It was originally designed as a dual purpose project, its first priority being to manage irrigation water in the Amu Darya River. Hydropower was regarded as a by-product. Tajikistan now sees Rogun primarily as a key component in its energy independence. The original design90 for Rogun envisaged a 335-metre high rock-and-earth-fill dam with13 km3 reservoir capacity and 10.3 km3 live storage, increasing Tajikistan's control of the Vakhsh River. The hydropower station would have an underground powerhouse with six 600 MW turbine-generators, adding up to 3 600 MW total capacity. Preparatory activities began in 1976, and intense construction started in 1982, involving 5-10 000 people. By 1993 the initial infrastructure consisting of interim dam and many kilometres of tunnels was washed away by flash floods due to inadequate supervision combined with the civil war. Building work was frozen for more than a decade91, only resuming in 2007. Initially the Government of Tajikistan funded Rogun rehabilitation work out of the state budget92, but in January 2010 it issued shares for a total of 6 billion Tajik somoni (US$1.3 billion). Between January and March 2010 it raised US$184 million, with US$6 million93 more in the remaining 9 months of the year. Smaller power plants are being completed further down the river, such as Sangtuda-1 (670 MW) and Sangtuda-294 (respectively with Russian and Iranian investments). A similar development is envisaged on the Zarafshan River, mainly with Chinese capital, provided Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agree on management of the river’s water resources. In the Pamir, private companies (such as Pamir Energy) and donors have supported the development of medium and small-scale hydropower units. Once these projects are completed Tajikistan will be able to generate an energy surplus for export. However, to export electricity it will need to invest in extending the transmission grid95. In February 2006 the energy ministers of Tajikistan, Iran and Afghanistan signed an agreement providing for a high-voltage power line to run from Rogun and the other hydroelectric stations on the Vakhsh River to Afghanistan. Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, India and China could become the clients for Tajik electricity.
Until now the existing operating mode of Nurek and construction of several smaller hydropower plants in the Vakhsh River basin have not been seen as a threat, but this perception may change with the construction of additional large upstream storage capacity, such as Rogun dam96. The Vakhsh is a major tributary of the Amu-Darya, crossing several countries. Downstream countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are afraid that once the construction of large storage schemes is completed the situation with regard to water deliveries during the vegetation period will deteriorate, leading to drastic water shortages and increasing water-related conflict between water users inside the country and between riparian countries. Moreover, there are also concerns over dam safety. The changes proposed by the upstream countries - unless agreed on in negotiations - must go through consultations with all information on the table. Furthermore, it is important to stress the principle of
48
reciprocity in the demands between upstream and downstream countries. Since summer 2008, the Central Asian Presidents have underlined the importance of water and energy on several occasions. Uzbekistan has repeatedly said that all states should have a say in the development of large hydropower projects and has called for a thorough independent, international appraisal of the technical, economic and environmental issues. The intense diplomatic and economic activity around water and energy issues in Central Asia shows yet again that these questions are high on the agenda for Central Asia and its neighbours. Furthermore, extreme weather events such as droughts (200001; 2008), and cold winters (2007-08) have starkly underlined the fundamental importance of water and energy for Central Asian countries and their perceived divergent interests.