Dissenting views can have value in anticipating crisis. An evaluation of International Monetary Fund performance in the run-up to the 2008–09 economic crisis (IEO 2011) notes that the Fund provided few clear warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities before its outbreak. The evaluation attributes this failure to a high degree of groupthink, intellectual capture, and a general mindset that a major financial crisis was unlikely. Encouraging active discussion and dissent can help avoid similar traps in future.
Tailoring Bank Group Support to Country Needs Country programs are the main vehicle for addressing country-specific needs. Knowledge of the binding constraints to development and poverty reduction is a pre-requisite to adequate tailoring of Bank Group support to country needs. The Bank’s analytical and advisory activities are made up of economic and sector work (ESW) and nonlending technical assistance (NLTA), and ESW is the typical instrument through which the Bank acquires knowledge on country conditions and specificities. The number of NLTA deliveries as of FY11 was about 20 percent higher than in FY06 and about 70 percent higher than in FY01 (figure 3.2). The share of ESW declined considerably, from 75 percent in FY01 to 41 percent in FY11. Among ESW deliveries, the share of core diagnostic reports6 declined from 17 percent in FY06 to 11 percent in FY11. It is important that the growing focus on NLTA be supported by a strong analytical base. In the current guidance to staff, a key distinction between ESW and NLTA is
Figure 3.2
ESW and NLTA Delivery
Year ESW
11
10
FY
09
FY
08
FY
07
FY
06
FY
FY
05
0
04
11
10
FY
09
FY
08
FY
07
FY
06
FY
05
FY
04
FY
03
FY
02
FY
FY
FY
01
0
20
FY
100
40
03
200
60
FY
300
80
02
400
100
FY
500
120
01
600
140
FY
700
160
FY
Initiation to delivery cost ($ millions)
No. of tasks delivered
800
Year NLTA
ESW
NLTA
Source: World Bank data. Note: AAA = analytical and advisory activities; ESW = economic and sector work; NLTA = nonlending technical assistance.
54
Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2012