26. IEG conducted a regression analysis including variables that are likely to affect development outcomes for Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) completed in 2000–10 (see IEG 2007; 2008d; 2011c appendix E for details of IEG’s analysis of the contribution of risk factors and IFC work quality to project development outcomes). For this cohort of projects, aspects of IFC work quality were the main determinant of outcomes, especially IFC’s role and contribution and supervision quality. Excluding IFC internal work quality factors from the analysis that sponsor risk is the main factor influencing development outcomes. The analysis covered 657 XPSRs completed during 2000–10, of which 202 were in IDA countries (see tables H.5 and H.6 in Volume II). 27. This includes, for instance, initiatives undertaken as part of the IFC 2013 change process and strengthening of IFC’s integrity risk function and procedures. 28. See the evaluation of IFC’s development results (IEG 2009c). The report highlighted implications from the largely unchecked growth of IFC’s advisory services and recommended that management set an overall strategy for Advisory Services, addressing the need for a clear vision and business framework that is more closely linked with IFC’s global corporate strategy. 29. Based on IFC’s Advisory Services database, excluding non-client-facing projects. 30. IEG validated 100 percent of Project Completion Reports (PCRs) prepared for IFC Advisory Services during FY08–09. Beginning in FY10, IEG moved to a sampling approach, selecting a stratified (by business line) random sample from the population of PCRs (70 percent sampling rate). The sampling rate is set at a level sufficient to make inferences about success rates in the population at the 95 percent confidence interval with a sampling error of +/–5 percent or less. Among the sampling criteria used is the indicative development effectiveness self-rating from the PCRs. IEG excludes from the population PCRs prepared for non-client-facing and knowledge management Advisory Services projects. 31. IEG evaluates random samples selected from the population of MIGA guarantees issued three years before, covering about 50 percent of the eligible population. 32. An evaluation of an IFC investment program concluded that IFC’s direct investment in small and medium-size enterprises was not cost-effective and recommended that IFC rely mostly on wholesaling through financial intermediaries to support the enterprises. The IEG study Financing Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (2008c) found that intermediaries were effective channels for wholesaling IFC support because they provided micro, small, and medium enterprises with a reliable source of loans by strengthening the capacity of intermediaries, leveraged IFC’s budget resources with those of the intermediary (efficiency), achieved high outreach among these enterprises that IFC could not have achieved directly, and helped improve local banking systems. Evaluated financial intermediary projects for micro, small, and medium enterprises performed on a par with overall IFC development outcome ratings, and intermediaries supporting microfinance outperformed the IFC average.
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