net commitment amounts, the decline is considerably less (2 percentage points), suggesting that larger projects tend to receive better outcome ratings (figure 2.4).17 Although the reliability of the trend is diluted by the significant number of incomplete evaluations for projects completed in FY09–11, additional information points in the same direction. The trends shown are based on IEG project evaluation data as of June 30, 2012. The data include ratings for 60 percent of investment projects completed in FY09–11; the completion rate of evaluations completed in FY11 is particularly low. However, year-by-year outcome ratings for investment projects show that the ratings of projects completed in FY10 posted the most pronounced decline (65 percent rated moderately satisfactory or better). In those projects already rated by IEG, self-evaluation project ratings from Implementation Completion and Results Reports (ICRs) show a similar trend during the same period (figure 2.5.A). A projection for this report suggests that the trend is likely to hold after all projects have been rated. The share of projects rated moderately satisfactory or better when all projects completed in FY09–11 have been rated was estimated using the historical disconnect rate between self-ratings in ICRs and IEG ratings as well as between Implementation Status and Results Reports ratings (for those projects yet to be completed) and IEG ratings. The result indicates that 72 percent of investment projects would be rated moderately satisfactory or better when all projects have been rated. Further extending the projection, the share is projected to fall to 70 percent for projects that are completed in FY12–14 (figure 2.5.B). Details of the methodology used for this projection can be found in appendix F (Volume II).
Figure 2.3
Percentage of Operations Rated Moderately Satisfactory or Better for Development Outcome by Number of Projects B. Investment Projects by Year of Exit and Approval (three-year moving average)
A. Share of Projects Moderately Satisfactory or Better by Year of Exit 100
100
Percent
80
60 40
60 40
Year DPOs Investment loans
19 –91 91 19 –93 93 19 –95 95 19 –97 97 19 –99 99 20 –01 01 20 –03 03 20 –05 05 20 –07 07 20 –09 09 –1 1
89 19
1 –1
8 20
09
–0 06
–0
20
03
–0
20
20
00
–9 97
–9
19
94
–9
19
91 19
5
0
2
0
9
20
6
20
3
Percent
80
Year By year of exit (3-year moving average) By year of approval (3-year moving average)
Source: World Bank data. Note: DPO = development policy operation.
24
Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2012