204 The Global HIV Epidemics among Sex Workers
Figure 4.29 ART Expansion among the Adult Population and Combination with Community Empowerment-based, Comprehensive HIV Prevention for Sex Workers in Ukraine: Trends in New HIV Infections among the Adult Population
52,000 New HIV infections
50,000
Status Quo
48,000
ART scale-up
46,000 44,000
ART scale-up + Emp. scale-up (65%)
42,000 40,000 38,000 2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
2016
Source: Authors. Note: Emp. = empowerment; ART = antiretroviral therapy.
Uncertainty Analyses Table 4.11 Range of Cumulative Infections Averted among Adults Between 2012–16 When the Community Empowerment-based, Comprehensive HIV Prevention is Expanded to a Maximum, Feasible Coverage among Female Sex Workers by 2016 Infections averted
Brazil
Kenya
Thailand
Ukraine
Low range
3,991
16,661
580
5,913
Median
5,103
21,242
745
7,507
High range
6,976
28,828
1,021
10,135
Goals
4,741
20,683
725
6,920
Source: Authors. Note: ART = antiretroviral therapy. Early initiation of ART occurs at CD4<350 for all countries.
Table 4.11 and Figure 4.30 display the number and range of adult infections averted in each country when the uncertainty analysis is applied to model scenario in which the community empowerment-based, comprehensive HIV prevention reaches the maximum feasible coverage level by 2016. The vertical line in Figure 4.30 depicts a 95% plausibility range around the median uncertainty estimate. For Kenya and Ukraine, coverage of the community empowerment-based, comprehensive HIV prevention increases from 5% to 65% from 2011 to 2016 and for Thailand and Brazil coverage of the community