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TABLE 5.2
Continued
Possible way forward Main ongoing SSN initiatives SSN system challenges Human development challenges
High population growth, increasing cost of living, and inadequate social services in some areas. High vulnerability. High rates of disability (15–20% of population).
Main types of SSNs are subsidies and transfers from government, families, private and charitable organizations. Limited program coordination targeting methods, case management, and M&E.
Evaluating efficiency and sustainability of existing SSN. Reviewing global experience on the implementation and results of community-driven approaches.
Establish targeted SSN. Develop administrative systems.
Kuwait
Increasing cost of living. Low female labor market participation (45% of women participate in the labor market relative to 83% of men) and high female-male income disparity (with a female-to-male earned income ratio of about 36 percent).
Main types of SSNs are subsidies and transfers from government, families, private and charitable organizations. Limited administrative capacity. Limited program coordination targeting methods, case management, and M&E.
Evaluating and benchmarking existing SSN programs.
Develop an SSN strategic framework. Establish targeted SSN. Develop administrative systems.
Libya
Postconflict reintegration of youth at risk (including ex-combatants). High unemployment (notably youth). Weak integration of poor migrants.
Increasing fiscal pressure from subsidy system (food, fuel, electricity). Lack of clear eligibility criteria for postconflict cash transfer programs. Weak M&E systems at central and regional levels.
Assessment of postconflict priorities for integrating unemployed populations and youth at risk. Coordination with international agencies on developing work programs and support to migrant populations.
Establish M&E systems. Strengthen SSN programs, coordinated with labor and skills development programs that promote human capital and assets of the poor, vulnerable, and women. Note: Dollar ($) amounts are in U.S. dollars. CCT = conditional cash transfer; M&E = monitoring and evaluation; SSN = social safety net.
Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Arabia
The Way Forward: How to Make Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa More Effective and Innovative
date on SSN reform has had observable achievements in Jordan (where the National Aid Fund has the best targeting accuracy in the region) and Morocco (where a CCT pilot, Tayssir, has been promoting rural children’s school attendance, with positive results). Moving forward, although poverty pockets can in theory call for geographic targeting, lower leakage and greater coverage can be achieved through poverty-based targeting methods, such as the PMT, combined with massive outreach in these pockets (through a census of the poor) and on-demand application in the rest of the country. The short-run agenda for Jordan and Morocco is prioritizing interventions focused on children and increasing the costeffectiveness of their SSN systems through consolidation of existing programs. High vulnerability and child poverty in Egypt stand in stark contrast to the near-absence of SSN instruments; the road ahead for the most populous country in the region is to start creating SSN interventions that promote human capital and to initiate internal subsidy reforms that improve SSNs’ internal efficiency.
High-HDI Countries
Finally, two upper-middle-income countries (Lebanon and Tunisia) and six high-income Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) already have high or very high performance on human development outcomes. Despite these achievements, the performance of these countries relative to their level of development leaves scope for improvement. Indeed, for all these countries except Tunisia, HDI ranks are much worse than GNI per capita ranks because of lower life expectancy and educational attainment compared with respective development peers. The main challenge in Lebanon, according to table 5.2, lies in regional disparities in terms of access to services and infrastructure, leading to relative deprivation in pockets of poverty. Until recently, SSN provision in Lebanon was very decentralized, with many poor people falling through the cracks of the system. In 2011, Lebanon moved toward building SSN capacity at the national level by developing the first national targeting database (NPTP), which uses a PMT. The forward-looking agenda is to institutionalize NPTP as the database used by multiple SSN programs across ministries, improve the implementation capacity of the Ministry of Social Affairs, and establish a coherent and sustainable SSN financing mechanism. The challenge for Bahrain is high vulnerability to shocks. The country’s heavy reliance on subsidies as an SSN does not allow for an effective crisis response, and the multitude of fragmented and categorically targeted cash transfer programs do not provide a reliable safety net for the
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