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Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa
The Current State of Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa
The evidence presented above is unambiguous: the coverage of nonsubsidy SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa is very low, with the vast majority of the poor being left to fend for themselves in times of need. A dependable SSN is vital not only for protecting those who cannot work (such as the elderly and the disabled) from destitution, but also for preventing temporary income shocks from becoming permanent poverty traps because of inefficient coping strategies (for example, taking children out of school or selling productive assets). The coverage rate is one indicator that signals the effectiveness of SSNs in reaching those in need; clearly, the region’s countries have significant scope to improve the reach of their safety nets to the poor and vulnerable population.
FIGURE 3.8
Coverage Rates of the Bottom Quintile by Specific Nonsubsidy SSN Programs Iraq SSN Djibouti Demobilization Djibouti Disability Croatia-Support Allow Morocco Literacy Serbia MOP Jordan Zakat Fund Uzbekistan SA for LI Hungary Aid Progs. Egypt, Arab Rep. Zakat Yemen, Rep. SSF Bulgaria GMI Estonia MT Benefits Egypt, Arab Rep. Sadat Pension Morocco Educationa Lithuania Social Ben. Yemen, Rep. SWF West Bank and Gaza MOSA West Bank and Gaza Non-MOSA Ukraine XP program Azerbaijan TSA Jordan NAF El Salvador LRSA Poland SW benefits Armenia FB Romania GMI Georgia TSA Kyrgyz Rep. UMB Panama Oportunidades Peru Programa Juntos Turkey CCT Kosovo SA Mexico Oportunidades Dominican Republic LRSA Albania NE West Bank and Gaza UN Macedonia SFA Brazil Bolsa Familia Russian Federation CA Turkey Green Card Ecuador Bono de DH Uruguay Asignación Familiar
Targeting Accuracy
0
20
40 60 % covered in bottom quintile
80
Sources: Middle East and North Africa: Authors’ calculations based on data from national household surveys; data for other regions from the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Household Survey Database; the Organisation for Economic C o-operation and Development Social Expenditure Database (www.oecd.org/els/ social/expenditure); and the World Bank’s Latin America and the Caribbean SSN inventory (forthcoming). Note: CA = Child Allowance; CCT = conditional cash transfers; DH = human development (desarollo humano); GMI = Guaranteed Minimum Income; LRSA = Last Resort Social Assistance; MOP = Maternal Support to Families (Materijalno obezbeđenje porodice); MOSA = Ministry of Social Affairs; MT = Means Tested; NAF = National Aid Fund; NE = Economic Assistance (Ndihma Ekonomike); SA = Social Assistance; SA for LI = Social Assistance for Low Income; SFA = Social Financial Assistance; SSF = Social Security Fund; SSN = social safety net; SWF = Social Welfare Fund; TSA = Targeted Social Assistance; UMB = United Monthly Benefit; UN = United Nations; XP = Extremely Poor. a. Excludes the “One Million Satchels” (Un Million de Cartables) school supplies program.
Different targeting methods are applicable in different contexts. In the Middle East and North Africa, SSN programs overwhelmingly use categorical and geographical targeting methods, which work well in environments where poverty is concentrated but not where poverty is multifaceted and spatially dispersed. In the latter case, methods that identify households or individuals based on their means or correlates of poverty (through PMT) are preferable. The MENA SSN Inventory has collected valuable information on targeting methods used by different SSN programs. Using these data, figure 3.9 vividly illustrates the predominance of categorical targeting in the region. Indeed, many countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Syria) rely exclusively on categorical targeting. The second favorite targeting method is geographic, with Morocco and the Republic of Yemen relying heavily on SSN programs that target different regions. The use of individual assessment criteria (such as means tests or PMT) is much less common. A couple of programs in Jordan and Tunisia use income thresholds as eligibility cutoffs. PMT for targeting SSNs is an emerging trend, with programs in Lebanon, Morocco, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen starting to use it fairly recently. A few programs in Jordan and Morocco are self-targeted. Although in theory SSN programs are intended for the poor and vulnerable, in the Middle East and North Africa, the wealthy tend to constitute a significant share of SSN beneficiaries. On average, only a quarter of nonsubsidy SSN beneficiaries in the region come from the poorest quintile, while about 15 percent come from the richest quintile, as shown on the left side of figure 3.10. In Egypt, Jordan, and West Bank and Gaza, only 1 in 10 SSN beneficiaries may come from the top quintile; this indicates some degree of targeting accuracy, but still fewer than half of all SSN beneficiaries in these countries are from the poorest quintile.
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