294
JOBS FOR SHARED PROSPERITY
TABLE 10.3 Extraordinary policy measures implemented during the Arab Spring in MENA, 2011–12 Special salary increases in public sector
Special financing in food subsidies/price controls
Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y
GCC Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Qatar Developing oil exporters Algeria Iran, Islamic Rep. Syrian Arab Republic Yemen, Rep. Oil importers Jordan Lebanon Egypt, Arab Rep. Tunisia Morocco
Special tax cuts
One-off Transfers
Y
Y Y Y Y
Bulk expansion of public sector hiring Y Y Y
Y Y Y
Y
Y
Y
Y Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y Y Y
Y Y Y
Y
Y Y Y
Y
Y Y Y Y Y
Y Y Y
Source: World Bank 2012b. Note: MENA = Middle East and North Africa; GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council; Y = yes; [blank] = no.
continue to have an incentive to queue (see chapter 2). Similarly, interviews with leaders of the emerging labor movement conducted for this report in Egypt and Tunisia reveal that their members often aspire to a more inclusive but still public sector-centered social contract, with no acknowledgment of the fiscal unsustainability of this model. Extending public employment would indeed respond to these demands, but it would not reduce segmentation in labor markets or promote more inclusive growth.
FIGURE 10.3 Growth in GDP forecast for non-GCC countries in MENA, 2000–13 10 8 6 4 2 0 –2
Enabling a broad reform process: Examples of successful transitions
–4 –6 –8 2000–08
2009
Algeria Jordan Syrian Arab Republic
2010
2011 Year Egypt, Arab Rep. Lebanon Tunisia
2012
2013
Iran, Islamic Rep. Morocco Yemen, Rep.
Source: World Bank 2011. Note: MENA = Middle East and North Africa; GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council; GDP = gross domestic product.
Part 2 of the report explained in detail the many reforms that would need to take place to bring countries to a higher-productivity path. This section highlights reforms from outside the region that have at least in part moved toward a more inclusive growth model, with a particular focus on the reform process.