Is Fiscal Policy the Answer?

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Gemmell, Misch, and Moreno-Dodson

which offsetting change—is being considered. Otherwise, the estimated expenditure reform cannot be unambiguously identified and then replicated in practice. Second, it must be clear how far the evidence obtained from a particular sample of countries is relevant for the country or countries of interest. For example, evidence from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries need not be a good guide for the conditions observed in some developing countries. Finally, the parameter estimates must be robust in the sense that they address standard econometric concerns such as the endogeneity of the right-hand-side variables. Based on the discussion of these factors, the section on the existing evidence presents tables summarizing the particular growth estimates of public expenditure reforms as a type of tool for policy makers to predict ex ante the growth effects of public expenditure reforms. The focus of our study—to provide information that may be useful to policy makers based on results from the empirical literature—distinguishes this chapter from a more traditional literature review. We then discuss whether and to what extent the growth objective conflicts with the short-run considerations that often induce public expenditure policy changes. In practice, public spending decisions are often triggered by cyclical fluctuations. Downturns, for example, may make fiscal adjustments seem inevitable or make governments implement fiscal stimulus packages to smooth output. In both cases, the level and composition of public spending change. We review these issues in greater detail, and, based on country-level examples, we analyze tradeoffs with respect to the growth objective that may arise in practice— especially in the current context of global uncertainty and volatility. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the existing empirical evidence reviewed and show how this evidence can be complemented in practice with country-specific information. We argue that poor efficiency of public spending that is primarily induced by bad governance—that is, active waste that entails utility for the public decision maker (Bandiera, Prat, and Valletti 2009)—may be the main concern of policy makers. That means that the econometric evidence on the growth effects of the composition of public spending may be less relevant. We then review new types of evidence on the growth effects of public expenditure that also could be used as tools in practice to inform public spending decisions. We point to directions for future policy-relevant research, including greater use of subnational public spending data, the use of firm-level data to estimate the effects of public spending at the microeconomic level, and


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