Entry and Survival: The Sustainability Margin
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Code
Country
MLI GMB GNB GIN FRA NLD LBR SLE TGO IND CPV
Mali Gambia, The Guinea-Bissau Guinea France Netherlands Liberia Sierra Leone Togo India Cape Verde
Region Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Western Europe Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Cumulative value (US$ ‘000) 2001–06
Number of relationships
92,257 19,066 16,764 9,875 9,137 8,304 5,780 4,931 4,795 4,385 4,354
23 21 18 15 38 5 2 5 5 3 5
Source: Authors.
Table 1.7. Declining Exports of Senegal SITC 3330 3342 2634 3345 3341 3344 812 422 2633
Product name Petroleum oil, crude Kerosene/medium oils Cotton, carded/combed Lubricants (high petroleum content) etc. Motor spirit/light oils Fuel oils, n.e.s. Fodder bran/by-products Rice husked (brown) Cotton waste
Industry Petroleum Petroleum Cereals Petroleum Petroleum Petroleum Cereals Cereals Cereals
Cumulative value (US$ ‘000), 2001–06
Number of relationships
246,743 111,475 45,200 9,077 8,913 4,197 2,395 2,329 2,142
15 14 25 20 7 3 2 3 8
Source: Authors.
Exports Relative to Factor Endowment Indicators
Summary of data needs and sources
Distance between Trade data from WITS; endowment data national endowment from United Nations Conference on and the factor Trade and Development. intensity of exports
To explain why a country’s exports cannot be sustained, one of several areas to investigate is whether the exports that die represent attempts to produce goods that require a different mix of factor endowments than supported by the economy. If a nation’s endowment point is represented by the intersection of its average stock of physical and human capital, we can see how far or close to the average endowment point are the factor intensities of exports. By construction, most low-capital countries will be seen to produce exports that have capital content exceeding their endowment point (to the northeast). If the goods they produce are also produced by capital-rich countries, then the average
capital content of the export will be higher, reflecting the capital stock of all countries that produce those goods. Similarly, for capital-rich countries, their exports are likely to be to the southwest of their national endowment points. This occurs when goods produced by capital-rich countries are also produced by countries with lower physical and human capital stock. Because of aggregation bias even at the HS sixdigit level, this is a pervasive problem in trade data. The insight, therefore, is obtained not by looking at the share of products that exceed the endowment point but by looking at the share of products that are distant from the national endowment point regardless of whether the endowment point is on the lower or the higher ends of the axes. Take the example of Nepal. With no exception, the most significant exports of Nepal in 1993 were in line with the country’s factor endowments, with some embodying capital greater than the national average. By 2003, Nepal’s endowments had increased, and it produced an increasing
Module 1
Table 1.6. Destinations of Declining Exports of Senegal