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CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR
poor could increase the likelihood of holding local governments accountable for provision of services. There is relatively less published research available on the relationship between the impacts of climate change and natural hazards on access to basic services, and vice versa. Of all basic services, water, sanitation, and drainage have received more attention because of their direct impact on human health. Other gaps in the literature include limited empirical evidence on the impacts of climate change and disasters on the urban poor, and little documentation of how risks for the urban poor have been addressed and how cities can integrate policies for improving resiliency among the urban poor into urban planning. While this study does not purport to fully fill this void, it attempts to contribute to improving our understanding of the issues. Analytical Framework
The analytical framework used in the study is based on the approach developed by the IPCC, which looks at the risks posed by natural hazards and defines vulnerability as a function of a system’s exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This framework was introduced in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report and has been adapted somewhat over time. Various studies analyzing the impact of climate change have used different adaptations of this framework. As discussed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007, Section 19.1.2), “Key impacts that may be associated with key vulnerabilities are found in many social, economic, biological, and geophysical systems, and various tabulations of risks, impacts and vulnerabilities have been provided in the literature.” The application of the analytical framework will focus on a core function of cities—the provision of basic protection and services for its residents. For the purposes of the study, these basic services will include housing, water and sanitation, drainage, solid-waste treatment, transport, roads, and public and environmental health. Table 1.1 presents the analytical framework, with definitions used most commonly by the IPCC working groups. A further distinction useful for the analysis of risk is the concept of intensive and extensive risks found in the disaster risk literature. Intensive risk refers to areas where major concentrations of vulnerable people and economic assets are exposed to very severe hazards (for example, major earthquakes, tropical cyclones, severe flooding, or tsunamis). In contrast, extensive risks refer to wide regions exposed to more frequently occurring low- or moderate-intensity losses (for example, localized flooding, fires, and landslides in informal settlements). The frequency and intensity of such everyday hazards is increasing with the very gradual rise in variability and extremes in temperature and rainfall induced by climate change. These widespread low-intensity losses are associated with other