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CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR
GFDRR—Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction In this study (Brecht, Deichmann, and Wang 2010), city-specific population projections to 2050 are combined with geographic patterns of hazards representative of the 1975–2007 period. The projected number of people exposed to tropical cyclones and earthquakes in large cities in 2050 more than doubles, rising from 310 million in 2000 to 680 million in 2050 for tropical cyclones, and from 370 million to 870 million for earthquakes. The growing exposure continues to vary by region. By 2050, there will be 246 million city dwellers in cyclone-prone areas in South Asia, but 160 million each in the OECD and East Asian countries. Although East Asia has fewer exposed people, the urban population exposed to cyclones is expected to grow at 2.2 percent a year, similar to South Asia’s. SubSaharan Africa’s exposure growth at 3.5 percent is even higher due to the projected high urbanization rates, reaching 21 million urban dwellers by 2050. Exposure to earthquakes will likely remain most prominent in East Asia. It is also high in Latin America and the Caribbean, and OECD countries. The fastest growth in exposure is in South Asia (3.5 percent), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa, linked to rapid urbanization in these regions.
Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities: A Climate Vulnerability Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) assessed the climate change vulnerabilities of 11 large cities in Asia, most of them coastal (WWF 2009). WWF’s work focuses on climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity in these cities. The study gave each city a vulnerability score based on the combined rankings of its exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Each is rated by a point system; for example, exposure is measured by assigning a point value for (1) frequency of tropical storms, (2) frequency of extreme weather including flood and drought, and (3) potential impact of a 1meter rise in sea level. Based on this point attribution, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Manila are ranked as the most exposed of the 11 cities studied. These same cities are ranked highest on overall vulnerability as well. WWF’s index is unique in that it focuses specifically on climate change in a select number of cities predetermined to be particularly vulnerable. The study uses uniform measurements across the cities to make them comparable; however, the assigned units to rank vulnerability are not easily translatable in the final analysis. It is not clear, for example, why Dhaka has a vulnerability of 9, while Jakarta and Manila have a vulnerability of 8 (on a 10-point scale), or what a one-point difference in vulnerability means. Because the study is limited to only 11 Asian cities, it is also difficult to imagine how these rankings could be used to compare