Climate Impacts on Energy Systems
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Figure H4. Observed and Projected Precipitation Patterns for Mexico
Source: Figure generated under the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between MRI and the World Bank.
and improvements in welfare for local communities. Overexploitation of groundwater has increased steadily over the last decades, leading to the depletion of many aquifers. Surface water resources are also overexploited, resulting in reduced water ecosystem functioning, including wetlands. The projections made through the Earth Simulator indicate that the annual average precipitation levels over most of Mexico and in particular in the Gulf of Mexico will present a negative anomaly by the end of the century. Figure H4 indicates the projected anomaly in annual winter precipitation toward 2100. Global warming will result not only in changes in mean conditions but also in increases in the amplitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Changes in extremes are more important for the visualization of adaptation measures. Two extreme indexes for precipitation were calculated to illustrate changes in precipitation extremes over Mexico, one for heavy precipitation and one for dryness. Figure H5 shows the changes in RX5D for the 60-km and 20-km resolutions. Throughout Mexico, RX5D is projected to increase in the future. The largest RX5D increases (rainfall intensification) are found over the Gulf of Mexico. At a higher resolution (20 km), the model projects even greater increases in RX5D by the end of the century.