Climate Impacts on Energy Systems
95
• thermal power plants at sites with sufficient cooling water availability over the next 50 years (or the lifetime of the plant) • mines that consider projected flooding and drought-prone areas 2. Guidelines and plans: ■ Guidelines on choosing locations for new power plants, taking into account climate change impacts ■ Guidelines for power plant robustness with regard to storms, floods, and heat waves ■ Guidelines for storm-proofing power plants and distribution and transmission infrastructure to make sure that the infrastructure withstands the highest wind speed that is likely to occur over the lifetime of the investment Economic Assessment
Order-of-magnitude estimates of likely climate-related impacts on societies and economies are an effective way of catching the a ention of central decision makers at international, national, and local levels. At present, energy-focused estimates of macro-economic impacts, the economic value of damages, and the benefits and costs of adaptation policies are limited. The World Bank study on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) is the only example providing global and regional estimates of the cost of adapting power generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure (World Bank, 2010b). At a country level, Eberhard et al. (2008) estimate the climate-related impacts of droughts on hydropower production and GDP for selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, de Bruin et al. (2009) estimate the costs and benefits of energy adaptation options for the Netherlands, and the ECA (2009) includes a case study and cost curve for power sector adaptation in Tanzania. There is analysis of energy expenditure for cooling and heating resulting from climate change (see IPCC, 2007b, chapter 17.2 for an overview7), but this is mostly focused on North America and OECD countries. Economic assessments need to be expanded at all levels, including detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of adaptation for site-specific investments and national/ sector policies. The ECA (2009) approach could be applied for energy systems. Integrated Development
An effective adaptive response requires that energy systems are considered in the context of development. HELIO International addresses energy resilience from the perspective of poverty and livelihood vulnerability, providing an example that is particularly relevant for low-income countries. Cross-sector links are also important when faced with competing uses of water, trans-boundary water resources, or tradeoffs between, for example, bio-energy production and food security (Chapter 4, “Integrated Planning”). Further mitigation strategies to reduce GHGs also need to be resilient to the effects of climate change, presenting one area where further studies seem pertinent. There are overlaps between energy sector mitigation and adaptation policies and actions. Energy diversification, demand-side management, and energy efficiency, for example, support adaptation as well as mitigation. But there can be tradeoffs. Changing climate parameters may increase energy demand and consumption (for example, for cooling and heating), and mitigation policies that hinge on larger shares of renewable energy sources are very likely to affect risk management practices, to influence technology research and de-