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10. Growth in the 1980s and 1990s can be explained primarily by the baby boom of the 1960s and 1970s. 11. In 2008, 38 percent of Africa’s population was urban, against a global average of 49 percent. See Population Reference Bureau, http:// www.prb.org. 12. Those countries include, for instance, Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. There were also a few well-publicized cases: (a) of migrants being blocked from entry, for example, 55,000 Bangladeshi migrants were prevented from entering Malaysia early in 2009; (b) some Filipinos lost jobs and were forced to depart before the end of their contracts when the Taiwanese factories that employed them closed; and (c) some migrant construction and service workers in Gulf Cooperation Council countries lost jobs and returned to their countries of origin. 13. In 2007, there were more people 65 and older than under age five, and this is unlikely to change in the future. 14. For more-developed countries, median ages were 29 in 1950, 37 in 2000, and 46 projected for 2050. 15. Real per capita GDP in East Asia rose almost 5 percent a year between 1960 and 2005. Credit is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies, infrastructure investment, and policies that favored exporters. The ensuing discussion focused on whether productivity growth or large increases in physical capital and labor were largely responsible for the rapid economic growth—that is, was the miracle due to innovation or perspiration. 16. The definition is the ratio of retired persons to those of working age. 17. Measurement is at prevailing fertility rates in 1995. 18. See Pew Research Center, “World Publics Welcome Global Trade— but Not Immigration,” http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID= 258; Polling Report, http://www.pollingreport.com/immigration.htm. 19. One proposal to attract elderly Japanese to the Philippines is at Japanese External Trade Organization, http://www3.jetro.go.jp/ttppoas/ anken/0001051000/1051449_e.html. 20. Economist (2005) says that “although they are at ease with robots, many Japanese are not as comfortable around other people.” 21. Climate change is defined as a significant change in temperature or precipitation that persists for several decades. Climate change can occur because of natural factors such as changes in the sun’s intensity, natural processes such as changes in ocean currents, and human activities that change the atmosphere, such as burning fossil fuels or deforestation. 22. Climate change is not the only factor affecting agriculture. Other trends helping to transform agriculture include (a) a rapidly rising demand for meat in middle-income developing countries, which can accelerate deforestation and speed up global warming; (b) increased demand for biofuels that can push up food prices as crops are shifted from food to fuel production; and (c) a rising demand for seafood that encourages production in coastal areas in ways that can increase storm-related damage. 23. China is debating how to modify and perhaps eliminate the hukou or household registration system that limits access to public housing, education, medical, and other benefits to the place where a person is registered. The Organisation for Economic Co-ordination and Development’s Economic Survey of China, released in February 2010, recommended that the hukou system be phased out and that the Chinese government develop national pension and health insurance systems to promote internal mobility. About 45 percent of China’s 1.3 billion residents live in urban areas, but 104 million of the 612 million urban residents do not have urban hukous. In 2006, the government began allowing migrant children without local hukous to attend local public schools, and city governments started taking control of private schools for migrant children. 24. A World Trade Organization or World Migration Organization could also give national governments facing antimigrant publics “cover” to liberalize labor flows over national borders, as when they say they do not want to allow the entry of migrants but their international obligations require them to do so. 25. There are four major modes or ways to provide services over national borders: Mode 1 is cross-border supply; Mode 2 is consumption
abroad; Mode 3 is commercial presence; and Mode 4 is temporary movement of natural persons. Thus, while “temporary” is not defined in the GATS, and GATS explicitly does not apply to permanent migration, Mode 4 refers to migration in broad terms. 26. GATS does not include all services: it excludes most air transport services as well as “services supplied in the exercise of governmental authority.” 27. Chanda (2004, 634) calls these four categories restrictions on entry and stay, recognition of credentials, differential treatment, and regulations on commercial presence, a taxonomy that groups economic needs test and visa-work permit issuance. 28. The Coalition of Service Industries says that a “GATS visa” allowing multiple short-term visits would be limited to professionals and highly skilled individuals and proposed a model of how countries could implement a GATS visa regime. GATS visas would be given to employees of established foreign firms, which would post bonds on each GATS visa holder that would be forfeited if the visa holder did not obey the terms of the visa. 29. In a simple two-factor production function with homogeneous labor and constant returns to scale, adding immigrants to the workforce reduces wages in the short run (assuming full employment) but does not change the long-run return to capital and labor. If immigrant and native labor is not homogeneous, adding immigrants to the workforce has distributional consequences, helping complementary workers and hurting workers who are substitutes for the immigrants. 30. Migrant rights can cost employers money. With a negatively sloped demand for labor, ensuring full or equal rights can reduce the number of temporary foreign workers employed. 31. The World Bank in November 2009 projected that remittances to developing countries would fall from US$338 billion in 2008 to US$317 billion in 2009, a drop of 6 percent. World Bank, “Workers’ Remittances Fall Less Than Expected, But 2010 Recovery Likely To Be Shallow,” http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/ 0,,contenMDK:22394180~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK: 4607,00.html. 32. Between 2005 and 2009, Singapore’s population rose by an average 150,000 a year, mostly due to immigration. In 2010, a third of Singapore’s 5 million residents were foreigners; in 1990, a seventh of 3 million residents were foreigners. Singapore has no unemployment insurance and a very thin social safety net. The open-door policy for low-skilled guest workers may have slowed productivity growth, which averaged only 1 percent a year between 1988 and 2008. The governmentappointed Economic Strategies Committee (http://www.esc.gov.sg) in 2010 recommended an increase in the monthly employer levy to encourage employers to make the investments needed to raise productivity growth and train local workers.
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