256
Managing Openness
Figure 19.9. Shares of Sub-Saharan African Goods Exports, by Destination, 2000, 2008, and 2009
% of total goods exports
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Ch in a
BR IC
c Ce nt ra lA La sia tin th A m e er C a ic rib a a be nd M an id dl N eE or a th st Af and ric a So ut h Su As ia bSa ha ra n Af ric a
Eu r
op
e
an d
an d
Pa ci fi
LM IC Ea st As ia
es St at
Un ite d
EU -2 5
HI
C
0
2000
2008
2009
Source: Authors’ calculations based on UN Comtrade (database), United Nations, http://comtrade.un.org. Note: BRIC = Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, and China; HIC = high-income countries; LMIC = low- and middle-income countries.
percentage of total exports increased strongly from 27 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2009. Among low- and middle-income countries, exports from Sub-Saharan Africa expanded in all regions except for the Middle East and North Africa and within Sub-Saharan Africa itself. The expansion of export share from SubSaharan Africa was strongest in East Asia and Pacific and grew from 7 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2008 and 19 percent in 2009. China was the main driver, whose export shares increased from 5 percent in 2000 to 14 percent in 2008 and 17 percent in 2009. The share of exports to the EU-25 in all export categories dropped over the period 2000–08; however, this drop was compensated for by growth in intraregional trade and emerging markets’ exports for some categories. The share of capital goods exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to highincome countries as a percentage of total capital goods exports fell from 49 percent to 44 percent between 2000 and 2008, with exports of capital goods falling especially sharply to the United States, while intraregional trade increased strongly from 37 percent to 42 percent over the same period. Sub-Saharan Africa’s export share of consumption goods to high-income countries as a percentage of total consumption goods exports declined from 71 percent to 68 percent over the period 2000–08, a drop driven mainly by a drastic decline in EU-25 demand, which fell from 50 percent to 42 percent. Growing demand by the United States and the BRICs (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, and China), however, counterbalanced this effect. The share of intermediate goods exports
from Sub-Saharan Africa to high-income countries as a percentage of total intermediate goods exports dropped sharply from 71 percent to 60 percent between 2000 and 2008, a fall driven by declining demand in the EU-25. This drop was offset by increasing demand for intermediates from the BRICs. Intermediate goods exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to China alone rose from 6 percent to 15 percent over the period 2000–08. The crisis further accentuated the trends for capital and intermediate goods in 2009. Intraregional trade continued to drop during the crisis. Africa trades more with itself than it does with Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa combined. And before the crisis, trade within Africa was higher than trade with South Asia, including India. However, the share of intraregional trade has been dropping, falling from 11.2 percent before the crisis in 2000 to 8.8 percent postcrisis. For Africa to realize its economic potential and achieve fast and sustained growth, it will have to increase intraregional trade. Policy Implications for Postcrisis Export Strategies Over the past decade, many developing countries embraced export-led strategies as an engine for growth and have increasingly diversified both export markets and products. The food, fuel, and financial crises were the first test of the resilience of this strategy to shocks. Our analysis shows that this strategy has served Africa well, helping facilitate