China’s Trade and Investment with the South Pre- and Postcrisis
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Table 10.9. Commodity Composition of China’s Imports in the Financial Crisis, 2008 and 2009
percent 2008
2009
Item
Jan.
Mar.
May
Jul.
Sept.
Nov.
Jan.
Mar.
May
Jul.
Sept.
Primary products Food and live animals Beverages and tobacco category Non-food raw materials (excluding fuel) Oil Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials Animal and vegetable oils, grease, wax
30.7 1.3 0.2 15.3 12.9 13.2 0.7
31.9 1.2 0.1 14.3 14.9 15.2 1.0
34.0 1.3 0.2 15.0 16.3 16.6 1.0
33.5 1.1 0.1 14.8 16.2 16.5 1.0
32.4 1.2 0.1 15.4 14.3 14.8 0.8
29.1 1.2 0.4 14.8 11.1 11.5 1.2
27.0 1.7 0.2 14.2 9.9 10.4 0.4
27.0 1.7 0.1 14.5 9.1 9.9 0.8
28.6 1.6 0.2 14.2 10.9 11.9 0.8
30.4 1.5 0.1 14.2 12.5 13.8 0.9
28.5 1.4 0.2 14.1 10.8 11.9 0.9
Industrial products Chemical products and related products Manufactured goods classified by raw materials Steel Base Metals and Related Products Machinery and transport equipment Miscellaneous manufactured articles Unclassified goods
69.3 11.1 9.9 2.4 6.6 38.7 9.3 0.2
68.1 10.7 9.8 2.5 6.6 38.4 8.9 0.3
66.0 10.4 9.6 2.2 6.2 36.8 8.8 0.4
66.5 11.4 9.3 2.3 6.0 37.3 8.2 0.2
67.6 10.3 8.9 2.4 5.9 39.8 8.2 0.4
70.9 9.7 9.7 2.6 6.1 42.2 8.6 0.7
73.0 11.4 9.9 3.0 6.7 43.1 8.1 0.5
73.0 11.7 10.9 3.1 7.5 41.7 8.4 0.3
71.4 11.5 12.1 3.0 8.5 39.3 8.2 0.3
69.6 11.1 11.1 2.6 7.7 38.7 8.3 0.3
71.5 11.0 10.6 2.6 7.5 40.9 8.7 0.3
Source: Authors’ calculations based on China Customs Statistics, China Customs Information Center, http://www.haiguan.info.
but that China’s manufacturing industries may have declined because of the financial crisis. As table 10.3 shows in part, the South is the major source of China’s oil and mineral imports, with the oil share increasing from 54 percent to 79 percent during 2004 and 2007 and the mineral shares constant around 60 percent between 1999 and 2007. Also China’s import shares of other product groups from the South have increased in recent years. Table 10.9 shows that China’s import share of oil deceased significantly after November 2008 and that it began to rebound slowly after May 2009, while the level of September 2009 is still lower than that of 2008. The level of September 2009 imports partly reflects the fall in oil prices and partly the compression of China’s domestic industries, findings supported by data on industrial consumption of power. Figure 10.5 reports growth rates of China’s Southern trade postcrisis, which plays a more important role during this time. It grew by more than 30 percent in 2008; in contrast, the rate of China’s Northern trade growth was only 13 percent. (China’s total trade grew 18 percent in 2008.) Compared with the same period in 2008, China’s trade with almost every market contracted during the spring and summer of 2009. The exceptions are exports to Africa, which increased by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2009, and imports from Vietnam, which increased by 22 percent in the second quarter of 2009. On the export side, China’s Southern trade fell less than Northern trade during the first half of 2009, but Latin American trade fell the most.
On the import side, China’s Northern trade performed better than Southern trade. Imports from India were only half those of the spring and summer of 2008. Figures 10.6 and 10.7 suggest that China’s imports from the South in summer 2009 increased over the same period for the previous year at a slower rate. They grew more rapidly compared to spring 2009, raising the share of Southern trade in the summer of 2009. China’s exports to and imports from the South in the second quarter of 2009 were 26 percent and 36 percent of total trade, respectively, increasing by 1.6 points and 3 points, respectively, compared to shares in the first quarter of 2009. This share of exports is higher than that of 2008, but the share of imports is still lower by 2.3 percentage points than that of 2008. These numbers suggest that China’s Southern trade has played a more prominent role in its trade recovery on the export side. The relative fall on the import side reflects lower oil prices and large oil imports from Africa. China’s Trade Performance and That of Other Asian Countries during the Financial Crisis We next draw a comparison between the trade performance of other Asian countries and China during the financial crisis. Monthly growth rates of major Asian economies’ total exports and imports (compared with the same month of the previous year) are reported in figures 10.8 and 10.9. Asian trade fell rapidly amid the global financial crisis.