figure based on a continuation of past trends) adds significantly to the total demand for land (Carle and Holmgren 2008). Without accounting for biofuels and forest plantations, or trade and price effects, FAO projections suggest that for 2010–30, after adjusting for increases in cropping intensity, 47 million ha of land will be brought into production globally—a decrease of 27 million in developed countries and transition economies and an increase of 74 million in developing countries. This translates to an annual increase of 1.8 million ha for food and feed only. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models allow for adjustments to prices and trade that induce land supply in regions where land is fairly abundant (Keeney and Hertel 2009). Such adjustments increase the estimates, with projected annual land use changes ranging from 4.5 million ha (Fischer and others 2008) to 10 million ha (Al-Riffai and others 2010) or even 12 million ha (Eickhout and others 2009), highlighting the conservative nature of FAO estimates. Plantation forestry could add some 1.5 million ha/year, although part of the required land does not compete with crop uses. In sum, a conservative estimate is that 6 million ha/year of additional land will be brought into production through 2030, implying a total land expansion of 120 million ha. Projections that allow for trade and price changes can be much larger, with total area increases of up to 240 million ha over the period. The fact that land use is in decline in developed and transition economies implies that more area expansion will shift to developing countries. As land that may be used for expansion is not equally distributed, some two-thirds of land expansion in developing countries is likely to be in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Sub-Saharan Africa. LESSONS FROM PAST PROCESSES OF LAND EXPANSION: REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES
In each of the world’s major regions, area expansion happened in a variety of historical contexts, driven by different actors and with social and environmental impacts profoundly affected by public policies. A review of key factors and differences across regions and commodities helps identify issues deserving attention. It can be useful to help countries where such demand is only now materializing to be aware of some of the pitfalls and ideally take measures to avoid them. Latin America: Missed Opportunities for Poverty Reduction and Environmental Challenges Following the liberalization of markets and trade in the 1980s, relatively landabundant countries in Latin America—including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—capitalized on growing global demand to increase their position in world markets. Higher prices, improved technology, and lower transport
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RISING GLOBAL INTEREST IN FARMLAND