Poland: From Crisis Resilience to Robust Growth
2020 strategy, holds the promise of extending Poland’s successful economic record into the next decade. Without such policy reforms, sluggish investment, a declining workforce, skill mismatches, low productivity growth, and a large public sector could become a drag on future growth.
Notes 1. The EU15 consists of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The EU10 consists of countries from Central and Eastern Europe that joined the EU during the 2004 and 2007 enlargement. They include Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. 2. The Visegrad countries include the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic. 3. By contrast, the evidence from econometric models that measure the ex post macroeconomic impact of EU funds is mixed. This could reflect, among other issues, the inefficient use of EU funds or difficulties in disentangling the longrun effect of EU funds from the various factors that affect growth (EC 2009b). 4. However, a nominal appreciation does not have to undermine competitiveness, as long as it is in line with the appreciation of the real equilibrium exchange rate—for example, through the Balassa-Samuelson effect (Mihaljek and Klau 2008).
References Allard, C., N. Choueri, S. Schadler, and R. van Elkan. 2008. “Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States.” Working Paper 223, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Bukowski, Maciej. 2009. Poland 2030 VisionMod. Warsaw: Institute for Structural Research. Burda, Michael, and Battista Severgnini. 2009. “TFP Growth in Old and New Europe.” Discussion Paper 2009-33, Humboldt Universitaet zu Berlin, Berlin. Darvas, Zsolt. 2010. “Global Financial Crisis and Growth Prospects.” Focus Note in World Bank EU10 Regular Economic Report July 2010. Warsaw: World Bank. EC (European Commission). 2008. “Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment.” Economic Paper 321, EC, Brussels. ———. 2009a. “Explaining Poland’s Successful Performance during the Global Financial Crisis.” EC, Brussels. ———. 2009b. “A Model-Based Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impact of EU Structural Funds on the New Member States.” European Economic Paper 371, EC, Brussels.
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