190
Table 4.2. China: Medium-Term Scenario, 2010–15 (% change, unless otherwise indicated) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
8.4
8.3
9.1
10.0
10.1
10.4
11.6
13.0
9.6
8.8
9.5
8.7
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.5
8.5
8.6
10.2
9.7
8.1
9.7
10.8
9.4
13.9
9.7
8.7
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.0
The real economy Real GDP a
Domestic demand a
Consumption
8.9
6.6
6.6
5.9
6.8
7.3
8.4
10.2
8.8
9.9
9.6
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.0
8.9
Gross capital formationa
5.2
12.0
12.1
16.9
13.6
9.0
11.1
11.4
10.2
18.3
9.7
8.0
7.5
7.3
7.1
6.9
7.4
8.3
8.4
9.9
9.5
7.9
9.4
10.4
8.8
12.8
9.1
8.3
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.7
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.6
2.5
2.2
2.6
0.8
–4.0
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
–0.1
–0.1
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.8
3.5
1.8
–4.8
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
–0.1
–0.1
Contribution to GDP growth (pp) Domestic demanda Net exports
a
Contribution net exports (pp)b b
30.6
9.6
29.4
26.8
28.4
24.3
24.0
20.0
8.6
–10.4
14.7
9.4
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.5
Imports (goods and services)b
24.5
10.8
27.4
24.9
22.7
11.4
16.1
14.2
5.1
4.3
16.4
9.2
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.0
Exports (goods and services)
Potential GDP growth
8.7
9.0
9.1
9.7
10.0
10.2
10.5
10.4
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.8
8.5
8.2
7.9
7.7
Output gap (pp)
–1.1
–1.8
–1.8
–1.6
–1.5
–1.3
–0.2
2.3
1.8
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.0
–0.2
–0.3
CPI increases (period average) (%)
0.4
0.7
–0.8
1.2
3.9
1.8
1.5
4.8
5.9
–0.7
3.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
GDP deflator
2.1
2.1
0.6
2.6
6.9
3.8
3.6
7.4
11.4
–2.1
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
External terms of trade
—
—
—
—
—
—
–0.8
–0.9
–4.3
8.6
–2.9
–0.1
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.7