Demographic Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean
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in particular, European immigration in the early 20th century helped populate the country and was considered a key factor in the early decline in fertility. Although Argentina continues to receive migrants, especially from neighboring countries, it only offsets the effect of increasing emigration (Guzmán and others 2006). Other interesting cases are that of República Bolivariana de Venezuela, where population growth increased by around 40 percent during the 1970s as a result of immigration, and Cuba, where the negative total growth rate is due to emigration. Although future migration is extremely difficult to predict over the long run due to its close link with short-term aspects of the economic conjuncture—that is, with economic crises or sudden job opportunities arising from a neighboring country—it will likely play an increasingly important role in national population dynamics, given the increasing globalization of economies, the increased access to labor markets, and greater opportunities for individual mobility.
Changes in Population Size and Age Structure Changes in population size and structure are determined by changes in mortality, fertility, and migration levels. In addition, population tends to grow even beyond the point that replacement-level fertility is achieved due to the effect of population momentum (Bongaarts and Bulatao 1999). This phenomenon results from the large number of young people associated with former high fertility rates. As these youths grow older and move through reproductive ages, the greater number of births tends to exceed the number of deaths in the older populations for a certain period of time (World Bank 2003). This is already the case in some LAC countries such as Chile and Costa Rica, where fertility has reached or fallen below replacement level but the population continues to grow, due to the still relatively high proportion of young people and people of childbearing age.
Population Growth and Size The LAC population has been growing at declining rates. In 1950, the average annual population growth rate in the region was 2.8 percent. Currently, the growth rate has dropped to 1.3 percent, and by 2050 population is expected to be growing at a rate close to zero (approximately 0.3 percent). However, opposing trends are observed if we look at specific age groups: while the adult population (aged 15–59) is growing at