72
Population Aging
The effects of using different variants of population projection tend to be rather modest on the demographic dividend, especially in countries that are more advanced in the demographic transition process. Even assumptions on fertility that lead to fairly unlikely scenarios for the future produce only moderate changes in the timing of the demographic dividend. Annex 2A.2 Stage of demographic transition Very advanced Advanced
Full
Moderate
Countries According to the Stage of Demographic Transition in LAC
Economy
Life expectancy (years)
Total fertility rate (number of children born per woman)
Barbados Cuba Argentina Bahamas, The Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Guadeloupe Martinique Mexico Netherlands Antilles Puerto Rico St. Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Belize Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador French Guiana Guyana Honduras Jamaica Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Suriname Venezuela, R.B. de Bolivia Guatemala Haiti
77.3 78.3 75.2 73.5 72.4 78.5 72.8 78.8 79.2 79.5 76.1 75.1 78.7 73.7 69.8 76.2 76.1 72.2 75.0 71.8 75.9 66.8 72.1 72.6 72.9 75.6 71.8 71.4 70.2 73.8 65.5 70.2 60.6
1.5 1.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.8 2.6 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.5 4.2 3.5
Sources: CELADE/ECLAC population estimates and projections 2007; Population Division of UN/DESA, “World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.�