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penetration in rural areas. Revenues in the individual-access scenario are calculated according to assumptions regarding monthly average revenue per user (ARPU). A range of ARPU from $5 to $10 per month was modeled based on trends in voice markets. The key assumptions in this scenario are given in appendix table A4.3.
Results In the shared-access scenario—based on a mix of business, high-income households, and public Internet-access points—wireless broadband coverage is commercially viable for 75 percent of the population (appendix table A4.4). This means that, operating in a competitive environment, wireless broadband infrastructure can be expected to expand so that about 583 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa would be living within range of a wireless broadband signal. Although people would be able to access the Internet through a range of wireless customer devices, it is expected that, under this scenario, the main form of access would be Internet cafés or other public Internet-access facilities. Building out broadband network infrastructure to cover the remaining areas would not be commercially viable for the foreseeable future. If network infrastructure is to be developed in these areas, it would require a total subsidy of up to $755 million per year, ranging from nothing in Mauritius and Swaziland to $199 million in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Figure 5.8 presents the results of the analysis by country. These results are dependent on some key input assumptions. The results of varying those assumptions are given in appendix table A4.4. In the shared-access scenario, differences in demand and costs account for the cross-country variation in broadband’s commercial viability. For example, low-income countries generally require higher subsidies because their revenue potential is lower than that of higher-income countries. Cost patterns for wireless broadband are similar to those for basic voice services: Infrastructure requirements are greater in sparsely populated or mountainous countries, and the infrastructure is more expensive, resulting in greater subsidy requirements than in countries with high-population densities. The results of the individual-access scenario model showed that broadband wireless infrastructure at higher levels of demand (that is, a broadband penetration rate of 20 percent in urban areas and 10 percent in rural areas) is not financially viable anywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa at ARPU levels of $5 to $10 per month. The higher cost of this infrastructure combined with the low willingness of customers to pay means that such a