70
Poor Places, Thriving People
FIGURE 3.2
Poverty Is Rural and Growth Is Nonagricultural, in MENA Economies 80
agriculture’s contribution to growth, 1990–2005, (%)
agriculture-based countries
60
40
20
YEM EGY MAR
TUN
0 transforming countries urbanized countries
–20 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
rural poor/total poor, 2002 actual poverty data
predicted poverty data
Source: World Bank 2008a. Note: The contribution of agriculture to growth is defined as the agricultural growth rate times the sector average share over the period divided by the GDP growth rate. Rural shares in poverty marked with a circle are from Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula (2007), using the $2.15-per-day poverty line. Rural shares of poverty marked with a diamond are predicted with an estimated regression of the rural share of poverty on rural share of population, agricultural share in GDP, log of GDP per capita in 2000 US$, and regional dummies. EGY = Egypt, Arab Rep., MAR = Morocco, TUN = Tunisia, YEM = Yemen, Rep.
person, it is usual for employment in agriculture to stabilize or shrink as workers move out of farming into manufacturing and service jobs. Figure 3.3 presents data for 162 countries on the relationship between a country’s overall labor productivity and the growth rate of employment in agriculture: the richer the country and the higher labor productivity, the lower the rate of growth of agricultural employment. Countries usually have a declining farm labor force when they reach the level of development of the Syrian Arab Republic, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, or the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, in MENA there is growing agricultural employment—and quite rapid growth too: more and more people are trying to make a living out of MENA’s limited land and water resources. Between 1990 and 2005, the number of people working in farming grew by 32 percent in