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a positive trend in the frequency of very heavy rains. Glaciers are retreating drastically. Projections. See table 13.4 and figure 11.15 in WGII (IPCC 2007b) for mean temperature and mean precipitation changes. The precipitation signal is quite robust across GCMs. While the central part is likely to become drier, wetter or unchanging conditions may occur in the north and in the south. The upward trend in precipitation frequency continues but not at a strong and significant signal. The dry day frequency trend generally continues upward, except in the far south. Over the next century, the risk for more of the most intense extratropical cyclones and associated storm surges will increase. Sea level rise will compare with global increase. However, greater sea level rise is estimated to occur near the mouth of River Plata. Finally, glaciers will decrease in size and volume. Images: Wetter in the north, drier central, and increased risk of drought and heavy rains.
Bolivia Recent trends. Temperatures have increased at about 0.1° to 0.2°C per decade over the last 25 years (around 0.5°C since 1901, but information only sparsely available). Rainfall shows a varying trend, which is consistent across the Andes. In particular, reductions in rainfall are seen toward the west. Recent events. Increased El Niño occurrences. Droughts: The country experienced a severe drought throughout 2004–05. Precipitation: The country experienced a destructive hailstorm in 2002, as well as heavy rains leading to severe flooding in 2006. General for the region: A positive tendency for intense precipitation and consecutive dry days has occurred. In addition, the region has experienced a positive trend in the frequency of very heavy rains. Finally, glaciers are retreating drastically. Projections. See table 13.4 and figure 11.15 in WGII (IPCC 2007b) for mean temperature and mean precipitation changes. Note that the precipitation trend will be mainly positive and the upward trend in precipitation intensity will continue. The dry day frequency trend is also expected to continue upward.